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Meijers M, Ruchnewitz D, Eberhardt J, Karmakar M, Łuksza M, Lässig M. Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution. ARXIV 2024:arXiv:2403.12684v2. [PMID: 38745695 PMCID: PMC11092678] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthijs Meijers
- Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Zülpicherstr. 77, 50937, Köln, Germany
| | - Denis Ruchnewitz
- Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Zülpicherstr. 77, 50937, Köln, Germany
| | - Jan Eberhardt
- Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Zülpicherstr. 77, 50937, Köln, Germany
| | - Malancha Karmakar
- Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Zülpicherstr. 77, 50937, Köln, Germany
| | - Marta Łuksza
- Tisch Cancer Institute, Departments of Oncological Sciences and Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Michael Lässig
- Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Zülpicherstr. 77, 50937, Köln, Germany
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Fonseca HAR, Zimerman A, Monfardini F, Guimarães HP, Pedrosa RP, Patriota RDLS, Couto Patriota TLG, Passos LCS, Dall'Orto FTC, Hoffmann Filho CR, Nascimento BR, Baldissera FA, Pereira CAC, Caramori PRA, Andrade PB, Okoshi MP, Polanczyk CA, Silveira FS, Villacorta AS, Nicolau JC, Rizzo LV, Berwanger O. In-Hospital influenza vaccination to prevent cardiorespiratory events in the first 45 days after acute coronary syndrome: A prespecified analysis of the VIP-ACS trial. Vaccine 2024; 42:496-504. [PMID: 38154990 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.12.074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Influenza vaccination prevents major cardiovascular events in individuals presenting a recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS), however the early effect of an in-hospital double-dose vaccination strategy remains uncertain. METHODS The VIP-ACS was a randomized, pragmatic, multicenter, open-label trial with a blinded-adjudication endpoint. Patients with ACS ≤ 7 days of hospitalization were randomized to an in-hospital double-dose quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (double-dose) or a standard-dose influenza vaccine at 30 days post-randomization. The primary endpoint was a hierarchical composite of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, hospitalization for heart failure, urgent coronary revascularization, and hospitalization for respiratory infections, analyzed with the win ratio (WR) method in short-term follow-up (45-days after randomization). RESULTS The trial enrolled 1,801 patients (≥18 years old). Median participant age was 57 years, 70 % were male. There were no significant differences between groups on the primary hierarchical endpoint: there were 5.7 % wins in the double-dose in-hospital group and 5.5 % wins in the standard-dose delayed vaccination group (WR: 1.03; 95 % CI: 0.70---1.53; P = 0.85). In a sensitivity analysis including COVID-19 infection in the hospitalizations for respiratory infections endpoint, overall results were maintained (WR: 1.03; 95 % CI 0.71---1.51; P = 0.87). Results were consistent for major cardiovascular events only (WR: 0.82; 95 % CI: 0.48---1.39; P = 0.46). No serious adverse events were observed. CONCLUSION In patients with recent ACS, in-hospital double-dose influenza vaccination did not significantly reduce cardiorespiratory events at 45 days compared with standard-dose vaccination at 30 days post-randomization.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - André Zimerman
- TIMI Study Group, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Frederico Monfardini
- Instituto Israelita de Ensino e Pesquisa, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Hélio Penna Guimarães
- Instituto Israelita de Ensino e Pesquisa, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Cesar A C Pereira
- Instituto do Coração (InCor), Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Carisi Anne Polanczyk
- Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | | | | | - José Carlos Nicolau
- Instituto do Coração (InCor), Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Luiz V Rizzo
- Instituto Israelita de Ensino e Pesquisa, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Otávio Berwanger
- Instituto Israelita de Ensino e Pesquisa, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil.
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Wangchuk S, Prabhakaran AO, Dhakal GP, Zangmo C, Gharpure R, Dawa T, Phuntsho S, Burkhardsmeier B, Saha S, Wangmo D, Lafond KE. Introducing seasonal influenza vaccine in Bhutan: Country experience and achievements. Vaccine 2023; 41:7259-7264. [PMID: 37866993 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.10.053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2023] [Revised: 10/16/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
Bhutan successfully introduced multiple vaccines since the establishment of the Vaccine Preventable Disease Program in 1979. Surveillance and subsequent introduction of influenza vaccination became a public health priority for the Ministry of Health following the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Sentinel surveillance for influenza in Bhutan began in 2008, and a study of severe acute respiratory infection was conducted in 2017, which found the highest influenza burden in children aged <5 years and adults ≥50 years. Following review of surveillance and burden of disease data, the National Technical Advisory Group presented recommendations to Bhutan's Ministry of Health which approved influenza vaccine introduction for all five high-risk groups in the country. Upon the official launch of the program in June 2018, the Vaccine Preventable Disease Program began planning, budgeting, and procurement processes with technical and financial support from the Partnership for Influenza Vaccine Introduction, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Bhutan Health Trust Fund, and the World Health Organization. Influenza vaccination for high-risk groups was integrated into Bhutan's routine immunization services in all health care facilities beginning in November 2019 and vaccinated all populations in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Coverage levels between 2019 and 2022 were highest in children aged 6-24 months (62.5%-96.9%) and lowest in pregnant women (47.7%-62.5%). Bhutan maintained high coverage levels despite the COVID-19 pandemic by continued provision of influenza vaccine services at health centers during lockdowns, conducting communication and sensitization efforts, and using catch-up campaigns. Bhutan's experience with introducing and scaling up the influenza vaccine program contributed to the country's capacity to rapidly deploy its COVID-19 vaccination program in 2021.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonam Wangchuk
- Royal Centers for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Thimphu, Bhutan.
| | - Aslesh O Prabhakaran
- Influenza Program, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, New Delhi, India
| | - Guru Prasad Dhakal
- Department of Medicine, Jigme Dorji Wangchuk National Referral Hospital, Thimphu, Bhutan
| | - Cheten Zangmo
- Vaccine Preventable Disease Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Bhutan
| | - Radhika Gharpure
- Influenza Division, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA
| | - Tashi Dawa
- Vaccine Preventable Disease Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Bhutan
| | - Sangay Phuntsho
- Vaccine Preventable Disease Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Bhutan
| | | | - Siddhartha Saha
- Influenza Program, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Kathryn E Lafond
- Influenza Division, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA
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Li H, Ge M, Wang C. Spatio-temporal evolution patterns of influenza incidence and its nonlinear spatial correlation with environmental pollutants in China. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1685. [PMID: 37658301 PMCID: PMC10472579 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16646-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 08/29/2023] [Indexed: 09/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Currently, the influenza epidemic in China is at a high level and mixed with other respiratory diseases. Current studies focus on regional influenza and the impact of environmental pollutants on time series, and lack of overall studies on the national influenza epidemic and the nonlinear correlation between environmental pollutants and influenza. The unclear spatial and temporal evolution patterns of influenza as well as the unclear correlation effect between environmental pollutants and influenza epidemic have greatly hindered the prevention and treatment of influenza epidemic by relevant departments, resulting in unnecessary economic and human losses. METHOD This study used Chinese influenza incidence data for 2007-2017 released by the China CDC and air pollutant site monitoring data. Seasonal as well as inter monthly differences in influenza incidence across 31 provinces of China have been clarified through time series. Space-Time Cube model (STC) was used to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of influenza incidence in 315 Chinese cities during 2007-2017. Then, based on the spatial heterogeneity of influenza incidence in China, Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to identify the correlation effect of environmental pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, O3) and influenza incidence. RESULT The influenza incidence in China had obvious seasonal changes, with frequent outbreaks in winter and spring. The influenza incidence decreased significantly after March, with only sporadic outbreaks occurring in some areas. In the past 11 years, the influenza epidemic had gradually worsened, and the clustering of influenza had gradually expanded, which had become a serious public health problem. The correlation between environmental pollutants and influenza incidence was nonlinear. Generally, PM2.5, CO and NO2 were positively correlated at high concentrations, while PM10 and SO2 were negatively correlated. O3 was not strongly correlated with the influenza incidence. CONCLUSION The study found that the influenza epidemic in China was in a rapidly rising stage, and several regions had a multi-year outbreak trend and the hot spots continue to expand outward. The association between environmental pollutants and influenza incidence was nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous. Relevant departments should improve the monitoring of influenza epidemic, optimize the allocation of resources, reduce environmental pollution, and strengthen vaccination to effectively prevent the aggravation and spread of influenza epidemic in the high incidence season and areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Li
- Institute of Healthy Geography, School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, China
| | - Miao Ge
- Institute of Healthy Geography, School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, China.
| | - Congxia Wang
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710004, China
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Carregaro RL, Roscani ANCP, Raimundo ACS, Ferreira L, Vanni T, da Graça Salomão M, Probst LF, Viscondi JYK. Immunogenicity and safety of inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine compared with the trivalent vaccine for influenza infection: an overview of systematic reviews. BMC Infect Dis 2023; 23:563. [PMID: 37644401 PMCID: PMC10463610 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08541-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Influenza infection is a highly preventable transmissible viral disease associated with mild upper respiratory symptoms and more severe conditions such as lethal pneumonia. Studies have shown that a broader spectrum influenza vaccine could reduce influenza's burden of disease in low- and middle-income countries. A considerable number of systematic reviews reported that quadrivalent influenza vaccines are considered more effective compared to trivalent vaccines, hence, there is a need for an overview in order to synthesize the current evidence pertaining to the comparison between quadrivalent and trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines. OBJECTIVE The aim was to summarize the evidence from systematic reviews that investigated the immunogenicity and safety of the Influenza's inactivated quadrivalent vaccine (QIV) compared to the trivalent vaccine (TIV), in the general population. METHODS We searched articles up to December 2022 at: Web of Science, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and SCOPUS. The search strategy was conducted following the PICO model. We included systematic reviews comparing the primary outcomes of immunogenicity (seroprotection rate and seroconversion rate) and adverse events using risk ratios. The AMSTAR 2 and ROBIS were used for quality assessments, and GRADE was used for evidence certainty assessments. FINDINGS We included five systematic reviews, totalling 47,740 participants. The Quadrivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine (QIV) exhibited enhanced immunogenicity in the context of B-lineage mismatch when compared to the Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine (TIV). While the safety profile of QIV was found to be comparable to that of TIV, the QIV showed a higher incidence of solicited local pain among children and adolescents, as well as an increased frequency of local adverse events within the adult population. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that the QIV provides a superior immunogenicity response compared to the TIV in all age groups evaluated, especially when a lineage mismatch occurred. The safety of QIV was considered similar to the TIV, with no serious or systemic solicited or unsolicited adverse events; tough pain at the injection site was greater for QIV. We recommend caution owing to the high risk of bias in the selection process and no protocol registration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rodrigo Luiz Carregaro
- Center for Evidence and Health Technology Assessment (NETecS), Universidade de Brasília (UnB), Campus UnB Ceilândia, Centro Metropolitano, Ceilândia Sul, CEP: 72220-275, Brasília/DF, Brazil.
- Health Technology Assessment Unit, MBA in Health Technology Assessment, Oswaldo Cruz German Hospital (HAOC), São Paulo, Brazil.
| | - Alessandra N C P Roscani
- Universidade de Campinas (UNICAMP), Clinical Hospital Unity, Campinas, Brasil
- Health Technology Assessment Unit, MBA in Health Technology Assessment, Oswaldo Cruz German Hospital (HAOC), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Augusto Cesar Sousa Raimundo
- Faculty of Dentistry, Universidade de Campinas (UNICAMP), Piracicaba, Brasil
- Health Technology Assessment Unit, MBA in Health Technology Assessment, Oswaldo Cruz German Hospital (HAOC), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Larissa Ferreira
- Institute of Health Strategy Management of the Federal District, Department of Health of the Federal District (SES/DF), Brasília, Brazil
- Health Technology Assessment Unit, MBA in Health Technology Assessment, Oswaldo Cruz German Hospital (HAOC), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tazio Vanni
- Hospital de Base, Secretaria de Estado de Saúde do Distrito Federal, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Livia Fernandes Probst
- Health Technology Assessment Unit, MBA in Health Technology Assessment, Oswaldo Cruz German Hospital (HAOC), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Juliana Yukari K Viscondi
- Health Technology Assessment Unit, MBA in Health Technology Assessment, Oswaldo Cruz German Hospital (HAOC), São Paulo, Brazil
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Belizaire MRD, N’gattia AK, Wassonguema B, Simaleko MM, Nakoune E, Rafaï C, Lô B, Bolumar F. Circulation and seasonality of influenza viruses in different transmission zones in Africa. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:820. [DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07727-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 06/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Influenza is responsible for more than 5 million severe cases and 290,000 to 650,000 deaths every year worldwide. Developing countries account for 99% of influenza deaths in children under 5 years of age. This paper aimed to determine the dynamics of influenza viruses in African transmission areas to identify regional seasonality for appropriate decision-making and the development of regional preparedness and response strategies.
Methods
We used data from the WHO FluMart website collected by National Influenza Centers for seven transmission periods (2013–2019). We calculated weekly proportions of positive influenza cases and determined transmission trends in African countries to determine the seasonality.
Results
From 2013 to 2019, influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009, A(H3N2), and A(H5N1) viruses, as well as influenza B Victoria and Yamagata lineages, circulated in African regions. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 and A(H3N2) highly circulated in northern and southern Africa regions. Influenza activity followed annual and regional variations. In the tropical zone, from eastern to western via the middle regions, influenza activities were marked by the predominance of influenza A subtypes despite the circulation of B lineages. One season was identified for both the southern and northern regions of Africa. In the eastern zone, four influenza seasons were differentiated, and three were differentiated in the western zone.
Conclusion
Circulation dynamics determined five intense influenza activity zones in Africa. In the tropics, influenza virus circulation waves move from the east to the west, while alternative seasons have been identified in northern and southern temperate zones. Health authorities from countries with the same transmission zone, even in the absence of local data based on an established surveillance system, should implement concerted preparedness and control activities, such as vaccination.
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Air Pollution-Related Respiratory Diseases and Associated Environmental Factors in Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2011–2020. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7110341. [DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7110341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2022] [Revised: 10/27/2022] [Accepted: 10/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
The unfavorable effects of global climate change, which are mostly the result of human activities, have had a particularly negative effect on human health and the planet’s ecosystems. This study attempted to determine the seasonality and association of air pollution, in addition to climate conditions, with two respiratory infections, influenza and pneumonia, in Chiang Mai, Thailand, which has been considered the most polluted city on Earth during the hot season. We used a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess regression (STL) and a seasonal cycle subseries (SCS) plot to determine the seasonality of the two diseases. In addition, multivariable negative binomial regression (NBR) models were used to assess the association between the diseases and environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, PM2.5, and PM10). The data revealed that influenza had a clear seasonal pattern during the cold months of January and February, whereas the incidence of pneumonia showed a weak seasonal pattern. In terms of forecasting, the preceding month’s PM2.5 and temperature (lag1) had a significant association with influenza incidence, while the previous month’s temperature and relative humidity influenced pneumonia. Using air pollutants as an indication of respiratory disease, our models indicated that PM2.5 lag1 was correlated with the incidence of influenza, but not pneumonia. However, there was a linear association between PM10 and both diseases. This research will help in allocating clinical and public health resources in response to potential environmental changes and forecasting the future dynamics of influenza and pneumonia in the region due to air pollution.
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Capão A, Aguiar-Oliveira ML, Caetano BC, Neves TK, Resende PC, Almeida WAF, Miranda MD, Martins-Filho OA, Brown D, Siqueira MM, Garcia CC. Analysis of Viral and Host Factors on Immunogenicity of 2018, 2019, and 2020 Southern Hemisphere Seasonal Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Adults in Brazil. Viruses 2022; 14:v14081692. [PMID: 36016313 PMCID: PMC9413331 DOI: 10.3390/v14081692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Revised: 07/25/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Annual vaccination against influenza is the best tool to prevent deaths and hospitalizations. Regular updates of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (TIV) are necessary due to high mutation rates in influenza viruses. TIV effectiveness is affected by antigenic mismatches, age, previous immunity, and other host factors. Studying TIV effectiveness annually in different populations is critical. The serological responses to Southern-Hemisphere TIV and circulating influenza strains were evaluated in 2018−2020 among Brazilian volunteers, using hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Post-vaccination titers were corrected to account for pre-vaccination titers. Our population achieved >83% post-vaccination seroprotection levels, whereas seroconversion rates ranged from 10% to 46%. TIV significantly enhanced antibody titers and seroprotection against all prior and contemporary vaccine and circulating strains tested. Strong cross-reactive responses were detected, especially between H1N1 subtypes. A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016, included in the 2018 TIV, induced the poorest response. Significant titer and seroprotection reductions were observed 6 and 12 months after vaccination. Age had a slight effect on TIV response, whereas previous vaccination was associated with lower seroconversion rates and titers. Despite this, TIV induced high seroprotection for all strains, in all groups. Regular TIV evaluations, based on regional influenza strain circulation, should be conducted and the factors affecting response studied.
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Affiliation(s)
- Artur Capão
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
| | - Maria L. Aguiar-Oliveira
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
| | - Braulia C. Caetano
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
| | - Thayssa K. Neves
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
| | - Paola C. Resende
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
| | - Walquiria A. F. Almeida
- Secretariat of Surveillance in Health (SVS), Ministry of Health (MoH), Brasília-Federal District, Rio de Janeiro 70723-040, Brazil;
| | - Milene D. Miranda
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
| | - Olindo A.ssis Martins-Filho
- Grupo Integrado de Pesquisas em Biomarcadores, René Rachou Institute, FIOCRUZ, Belo Horizonte 30190-002, Brazil;
| | - David Brown
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
- UK Health Security Agency, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK
| | - Marilda M. Siqueira
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
| | - Cristiana C. Garcia
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, National Influenza Center (NIC)/World Health Organization (WHO), Oswaldo Cruz Institute, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil; (A.C.); (M.L.A.-O.); (B.C.C.); (T.K.N.); (P.C.R.); (M.D.M.); (D.B.); (M.M.S.)
- Correspondence:
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Song S, Li Q, Shen L, Sun M, Yang Z, Wang N, Liu J, Liu K, Shao Z. From Outbreak to Near Disappearance: How Did Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Against COVID-19 Affect the Transmission of Influenza Virus? Front Public Health 2022; 10:863522. [PMID: 35425738 PMCID: PMC9001955 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.863522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Influenza shares the same putative transmission pathway with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and causes tremendous morbidity and mortality annually globally. Since the transmission of COVID-19 in China, a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against to the disease have been implemented to contain its transmission. Based on the surveillance data of influenza, Search Engine Index, and meteorological factors from 2011 to 2021 in Xi'an, and the different level of emergence responses for COVID-19 from 2020 to 2021, Bayesian Structural Time Series model and interrupted time series analysis were applied to quantitatively assess the impact of NPIs in sequent phases with different intensities, and to estimate the reduction of influenza infections. From 2011 to 2021, a total of 197,528 confirmed cases of influenza were reported in Xi'an, and the incidence of influenza continuously increased from 2011 to 2019, especially, in 2019-2020, when the incidence was up to 975.90 per 100,000 persons; however, it showed a sharp reduction of 97.68% in 2020-2021, and of 87.22% in 2021, comparing with 2019-2020. The highest impact on reduction of influenza was observed in the phase of strict implementation of NPIs with an inclusion probability of 0.54. The weekly influenza incidence was reduced by 95.45%, and an approximate reduction of 210,100 (95% CI: 125,100-329,500) influenza infections was found during the post-COVID-19 period. The reduction exhibited significant variations in the geographical, population, and temporal distribution. Our findings demonstrated that NPIs against COVID-19 had a long-term impact on the reduction of influenza transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuxuan Song
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Qian Li
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Xi'an, China
| | - Li Shen
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Minghao Sun
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Zurong Yang
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Nuoya Wang
- School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jifeng Liu
- Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Xi'an, China
| | - Kun Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China
| | - Zhongjun Shao
- Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, School of Public Health, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, China
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10
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Zanobini P, Bonaccorsi G, Lorini C, Haag M, McGovern I, Paget J, Caini S. Global patterns of seasonal influenza activity, duration of activity and virus (sub)type circulation from 2010 to 2020. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2022; 16:696-706. [PMID: 35212157 PMCID: PMC9178051 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2022] [Accepted: 01/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Seasonal influenza viruses undergo unpredictable changes, which may lead to antigenic mismatch between circulating and vaccine strains and to a reduced vaccine effectiveness. A continuously updated knowledge of influenza strain circulation and seasonality is essential to optimize the effectiveness of influenza vaccination campaigns. We described the global epidemiology of influenza between the 2009 A(H1N1)p and the 2020 COVID‐19 pandemic. Methods Influenza virological surveillance data were obtained from the WHO‐FluNet database. We determined the median proportion of influenza cases caused by the different influenza virus types, subtypes, and lineages; the typical timing of the epidemic peak; and the median duration of influenza epidemics (applying the annual average percentage method with a 75% threshold). Results We included over 4.6 million influenza cases from 149 countries. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by type A viruses was 75.5%, highest in the Southern hemisphere (81.6%) and lowest in the intertropical belt (73.0%), and ranged across seasons between 60.9% in 2017 and 88.7% in 2018. Epidemic peaks typically occurred during winter months in Northern and Southern hemisphere countries, while much more variability emerged in tropical countries. Influenza epidemics lasted a median of 25 weeks (range 8–42) in countries lying between 30°N and 26°S, and a median of 9 weeks (range 5–25) in countries outside this latitude range. Conclusions This work will establish an important baseline to better understand factors that influence seasonal influenza dynamics and how COVID‐19 may have affected seasonal activity and influenza virus types, subtypes, and lineages circulation patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrizio Zanobini
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | | | - Chiara Lorini
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Mendel Haag
- Center for Outcomes Research and Epidemiology, Seqirus NL BV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ian McGovern
- Center for Outcomes Research and Epidemiology, Seqirus Inc, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - John Paget
- Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Saverio Caini
- Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
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11
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Sitthikarnkha P, Uppala R, Niamsanit S, Sutra S, Thepsuthammarat K, Techasatian L, Teeratakulpisarn J. Epidemiology of acute lower respiratory tract infection hospitalizations in Thai children: A 5-year national data analysis. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2022; 16:142-150. [PMID: 34523811 PMCID: PMC8692802 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2021] [Revised: 08/16/2021] [Accepted: 09/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) are the most common cause for hospitalization in pediatric patients. Pediatric patients with LRTIs are at an increased risk of morbidity and mortality. The national data analysis of epidemiologic variations facilitates awareness and develops solutions to prevent these conditions in the future. OBJECTIVE This study aims to evaluate the epidemiology, causative pathogens, morbidity, and mortality of LRTIs in pediatric patients of Thailand from 2015 to 2019. METHODS This was a retrospective study among pediatric patients aged between 0 and 18 years old admitted in hospitals due to LRTIs in Thailand from January 2015 to December 2019. The data were extracted from National Health Security Office using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision, Thai Modification; ICD-10-TM of J09 to J22. RESULTS A total of 1,423,509 children hospitalized due to LRTIs were identified. Most of the patients were of age 1-5 years. Pneumonia was the most common LRTI (876,557 children, 61.58%) in hospitalized children. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the main etiologic pathogen of bronchiolitis, which presents in approximately 10.86% of all episodes. Influenza viruses were found predominantly in children with pneumonia (15.52%). The mortality rate since 2015-2019 was highest in pneumonia under 1 year old (P < 0.001). Pneumonia in children under 5 years old had the highest mortality rate, which accounted for 11.85 per 100,000 children in 2019. CONCLUSIONS LRTIs had a high incidence rate of hospitalization and mortality, especially in children under 5 years old. Influenza virus was the most common pathogen of pneumonia.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Rattapon Uppala
- Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of MedicineKhon Kaen UniversityKhon KaenThailand
| | - Sirapoom Niamsanit
- Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of MedicineKhon Kaen UniversityKhon KaenThailand
| | - Sumitr Sutra
- Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of MedicineKhon Kaen UniversityKhon KaenThailand
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12
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Dang TKNS, Rivero Cabrera R, Yeung KHT, van der Putten IM, Nelson EAS. Feasibility of age- and gestation-based routine universal influenza vaccines schedules for children aged 6 months - 2 years and pregnant women. Vaccine 2021; 39:6754-6761. [PMID: 34674893 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.09.076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2021] [Revised: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 09/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hong Kong's seasonal influenza schedule follows the World Health Organization's northern hemisphere vaccine composition recommendations but with year-round influenza activity there is the potential to implement routine age- and gestation-based schedules utilising both northern and southern hemisphere vaccines for children aged 6 months to 2 years and for pregnant women. This study assessed the potential feasibility of such schedules. METHODS A literature review was conducted and in-depth interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses were undertaken. RESULTS The following schedules were proposed and assessed for perceived feasibility: 1) a four-dose schedule in the first two years of life requiring an additional unscheduled clinic visit at 7 months; 2) a three-dose schedule excluding the 4-week booster after the first dose; 3) a two-dose schedule for pregnant women involving a dose at the booking visit and a dose with pertussis vaccine at 7 months gestation; and 4) a one-dose schedule at 7 months gestation. CONCLUSIONS Age- and gestation-based routine influenza vaccination schedules are theoretically feasible for both young children and pregnant women. The three-dose paediatric and one-dose obstetric schedules were assessed in interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses to be most acceptable. Further clinical studies are required to determine whether such schedules are non-inferior to current seasonal-based schedules in terms of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine uptake.
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Affiliation(s)
- T K N Sandra Dang
- CAPHRI, Care and Public Health Research Institute, Department of Health Services Research, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands.
| | - Romén Rivero Cabrera
- CAPHRI, Care and Public Health Research Institute, Department of Health Services Research, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands.
| | | | - Ingeborg M van der Putten
- CAPHRI, Care and Public Health Research Institute, Department of Health Services Research, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands.
| | - E Anthony S Nelson
- Department of Paediatrics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
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13
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Prozan L, Shusterman E, Ablin J, Mitelpunkt A, Weiss-Meilik A, Adler A, Choshen G, Kehat O. Prognostic value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in COVID-19 compared with Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infection. Sci Rep 2021; 11:21519. [PMID: 34728719 PMCID: PMC8563769 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-00927-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2020] [Accepted: 10/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
A high neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is considered an unfavorable prognostic factor in various diseases, including COVID-19. The prognostic value of NLR in other respiratory viral infections, such as Influenza, has not hitherto been extensively studied. We aimed to compare the prognostic value of NLR in COVID-19, Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus infection (RSV). A retrospective cohort of COVID-19, Influenza and RSV patients admitted to the Tel Aviv Medical Center from January 2010 to October 2020 was analyzed. Laboratory, demographic, and clinical parameters were collected. Two way analyses of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the association between NLR values and poor outcomes among the three groups. ROC curve analyses for each virus was applied to test the discrimination ability of NLR. 722 COVID-19, 2213 influenza and 482 RSV patients were included. Above the age of 50, NLR at admission was significantly lower among COVID-19 patients (P < 0.001). NLR was associated with poor clinical outcome only in the COVID-19 group. ROC curve analysis was performed; the area under curve of poor outcomes for COVID-19 was 0.68, compared with 0.57 and 0.58 for Influenza and RSV respectively. In the COVID-19 group, multivariate logistic regression identified a high NLR (defined as a value above 6.82) to be a prognostic factor for poor clinical outcome, after adjusting for age, sex and Charlson comorbidity score (odds ratio of 2.9, P < 0.001). NLR at admission is lower and has more prognostic value in COVID-19 patients, when compared to Influenza and RSV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lior Prozan
- Department of Internal Medicine H, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel.
| | - Eden Shusterman
- Department of Internal Medicine H, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Jacob Ablin
- Department of Internal Medicine H, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Alexis Mitelpunkt
- I-Medata AI Center, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Pediatric Rehabilitation Service, "Dana-Dwek" Children's Hospital, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Ahuva Weiss-Meilik
- I-Medata AI Center, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Amos Adler
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Microbiology Laboratory, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Guy Choshen
- Department of Internal Medicine H, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Orli Kehat
- I-Medata AI Center, Tel Aviv Medical Center, 6 Weizmann St., 64239, Tel Aviv, Israel
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14
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Hellferscee O, Treurnicht F, Gaelejwe L, Moerdyk A, Reubenson G, McMorrow M, Tempia S, McAnerney J, Walaza S, Wolter N, von Gottberg A, Cohen C. Detection of Victoria lineage influenza B viruses with K162 and N163 deletions in the hemagglutinin gene, South Africa, 2018. Health Sci Rep 2021; 4:e367. [PMID: 34557595 PMCID: PMC8448392 DOI: 10.1002/hsr2.367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A group of Victoria lineage influenza B viruses with a two amino acid deletion in the hemagglutinin (HA) at residues K162 and N163, was detected during the 2016 to 2017 Northern Hemisphere influenza season and continues to spread geographically. We describe the first identification of viruses with these deletions from South Africa in 2018. METHODS Nasopharyngeal samples were obtained from the syndromic surveillance programs. Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was used for virus detection and lineage determination. Influenza genetic characterization was done using next-generation sequencing on the MiSeq platform. The duration of virus circulation was determined using thresholds calculated using the Moving Epidemic Method; duration was used as an indicator of disease transmissibility and impact. RESULTS In 2018, 42% (426/1015) of influenza-positive specimens were influenza B viruses. Of 426 influenza B-positive samples, 376 (88%) had the lineage determined of which 75% (283/376) were Victoria lineage. The transmissibility of the 2018 South African influenza season was high for a few weeks, although the severity remained moderate through most of the season. The sequenced 2018 South African Victoria lineage influenza B viruses clustered in sub-clade V1A.1 with the 162-163 deletions. CONCLUSIONS We report the first detection of the 162-163 deletion variant of influenza B/Victoria viruses from South Africa in 2018, and suggest that this deletion variant replaced the previous circulating influenza B/Victoria viruses. These deletions putatively affect the antigenic properties of the viruses because they border an immune-dominant region at the tip of the HA. Therefore, close monitoring of these newly emerging viruses is essential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Orienka Hellferscee
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
- Department of Medical Virology, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Florette Treurnicht
- Department of Medical Virology, School of Pathology, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Lucinda Gaelejwe
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Alexandra Moerdyk
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Gary Reubenson
- Department of Paediatrics & Child Health, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Meredith McMorrow
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
- Influenza ProgramCenters for Disease Control and PreventionPretoriaSouth Africa
| | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
- Influenza ProgramCenters for Disease Control and PreventionPretoriaSouth Africa
- MassGenicsDuluthGeorgiaUSA
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Johanna McAnerney
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Sibongile Walaza
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and MeningitisNational Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory ServiceJohannesburgSouth Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa
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15
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Staadegaard L, Caini S, Wangchuk S, Thapa B, de Almeida WAF, de Carvalho FC, Fasce RA, Bustos P, Kyncl J, Novakova L, Caicedo AB, de Mora Coloma DJ, Meijer A, Hooiveld M, Huang QS, Wood T, Guiomar R, Rodrigues AP, Lee VJM, Ang LW, Cohen C, Moyes J, Larrauri A, Delgado-Sanz C, Demont C, Bangert M, Dückers M, van Summeren J, Paget J. Defining the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus around the world: National and subnational surveillance data from 12 countries. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2021; 15:732-741. [PMID: 34255934 PMCID: PMC8542954 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12885] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2021] [Accepted: 06/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are one of the leading causes of lower respiratory tract infections and have a major burden on society. For prevention and control to be deployed effectively, an improved understanding of the seasonality of RSV is necessary. Objectives The main objective of this study was to contribute to a better understanding of RSV seasonality by examining the GERi multi‐country surveillance dataset. Methods RSV seasons were included in the analysis if they contained ≥100 cases. Seasonality was determined using the “average annual percentage” method. Analyses were performed at a subnational level for the United States and Brazil. Results We included 601 425 RSV cases from 12 countries. Most temperate countries experienced RSV epidemics in the winter, with a median duration of 10–21 weeks. Not all epidemics fit this pattern in a consistent manner, with some occurring later or in an irregular manner. More variation in timing was observed in (sub)tropical countries, and we found substantial differences in seasonality at a subnational level. No association was found between the timing of the epidemic and the dominant RSV subtype. Conclusions Our findings suggest that geographical location or climatic characteristics cannot be used as a definitive predictor for the timing of RSV epidemics and highlight the need for (sub)national data collection and analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Staadegaard
- Nivel (Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Saverio Caini
- Nivel (Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Sonam Wangchuk
- Royal Centre for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Thimphu, Bhutan
| | - Binay Thapa
- Royal Centre for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Thimphu, Bhutan
| | | | | | - Rodrigo A Fasce
- Subdepartamento Enfermedades Virales, Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Patricia Bustos
- Sección Virus Respiratorios, Subdepartamento Enfermedades Virales, Instituto de Salud Publica de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Jan Kyncl
- Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic.,Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Ludmila Novakova
- National Reference Laboratory for Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, National Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alfredo Bruno Caicedo
- Universidad Agraria del Ecuador, Guayaquil, Ecuador.,Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública (INSPI), Centro de Referencia Nacional de Influenza y otros Virus Respiratorios, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Domenica Joseth de Mora Coloma
- Instituto Nacional de Investigación en Salud Pública (INSPI), Centro de Referencia Nacional de Influenza y otros Virus Respiratorios, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Adam Meijer
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Mariëtte Hooiveld
- Nivel (Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Q Sue Huang
- Institute of Environmental Science and Research Limited (ESR), National Centre for Biosecurity and Infectious Disease (NCBID), Upper Hutt, New Zealand
| | - Tim Wood
- Institute of Environmental Science and Research Limited (ESR), National Centre for Biosecurity and Infectious Disease (NCBID), Upper Hutt, New Zealand
| | - Raquel Guiomar
- Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | | | | | - Li Wei Ang
- Ministry of Health, Singapore.,National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Disease and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Public Health, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Disease and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Public Health, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Amparo Larrauri
- National Centre of Epidemiology, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Institute of Health Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | - Concepción Delgado-Sanz
- National Centre of Epidemiology, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Institute of Health Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Michel Dückers
- Nivel (Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - John Paget
- Nivel (Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research), Utrecht, The Netherlands
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16
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Epidemiology and Seasonality of Childhood Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in the Tropics. Viruses 2021; 13:v13040696. [PMID: 33923823 PMCID: PMC8074094 DOI: 10.3390/v13040696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2021] [Revised: 02/03/2021] [Accepted: 02/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in young children worldwide. Understanding seasonal patterns of region-specific RSV activity is important to guide resource allocation for existing and future treatment and prevention strategies. The decades of excellent RSV surveillance data that are available from the developed countries of the world are incredibly instructive in advancing public health initiatives in those regions. With few exceptions, these developed nations are positioned geographically across temperate regions of the world. RSV surveillance across tropical regions of the world has improved in recent years, but remains spotty, and where available, still lacks the necessary longitudinal data to determine the amount of seasonal variation expected over time. However, existing and emerging data collected across tropical regions of the world do indicate that patterns of infection are often quite different from those so well described in temperate areas. Here, we provide a brief summary regarding what is known about general patterns of RSV disease activity across tropical Asia, Africa and South America, then offer additional country-specific details using examples where multiple reports and/or more robust surveillance data have become available.
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17
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Simpson RB, Gottlieb J, Zhou B, Hartwick MA, Naumova EN. Completeness of open access FluNet influenza surveillance data for Pan-America in 2005-2019. Sci Rep 2021; 11:795. [PMID: 33437025 PMCID: PMC7804328 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80842-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2020] [Accepted: 12/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
For several decades, the World Health Organization has collected, maintained, and distributed invaluable country-specific disease surveillance data that allow experts to develop new analytical tools for disease tracking and forecasting. To capture the extent of available data within these sources, we proposed a completeness metric based on the effective time series length. Using FluNet records for 29 Pan-American countries from 2005 to 2019, we explored whether completeness was associated with health expenditure indicators adjusting for surveillance system heterogeneity. We observed steady improvements in completeness by 4.2–6.3% annually, especially after the A(H1N1)-2009 pandemic, when 24 countries reached > 95% completeness. Doubling in decadal health expenditure per capita was associated with ~ 7% increase in overall completeness. The proposed metric could navigate experts in assessing open access data quality and quantity for conducting credible statistical analyses, estimating disease trends, and developing outbreak forecasting systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan B Simpson
- Tufts University Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston, USA
| | - Jordyn Gottlieb
- Tufts University Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston, USA
| | - Bingjie Zhou
- Tufts University Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston, USA
| | - Meghan A Hartwick
- Tufts University Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston, USA
| | - Elena N Naumova
- Tufts University Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Boston, USA.
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18
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Kerr EJ, Malo J, Vette K, Nimmo GR, Lambert SB. Evidence for an increase in the intensity of inter-seasonal influenza, Queensland, Australia, 2009-2019. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2020; 15:396-406. [PMID: 33369256 PMCID: PMC8051720 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12828] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2020] [Accepted: 11/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Inter-seasonal influenza cases have been increasing in Australia. Studies of influenza seasonality typically focus on seasonal transmission in temperate regions, leaving our understanding of inter-seasonal epidemiology limited. We aimed to improve understanding of influenza epidemiology during inter-seasonal periods across climate zones, and explored influenza intensity and strain dominance patterns over time. METHODS Queensland state-wide laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications and public laboratory influenza test data from 2009-2019 were described by demographics, time period, region and strain type. We compared influenza intensity over time using the WHO Average Curve method to provide thresholds for seasonal and inter-seasonal periods. RESULTS Among the 243 830 influenza notifications and 490 772 laboratory tests reported in Queensland between 2009 and 2019, 15% of notifications and 40% of tests occurred during inter-seasonal periods, with 6.3% of inter-seasonal tests positive. Inter-seasonal notifications and tests substantially increased over time and increases in weekly proportions positive and intensity classifications suggested gradual increases in virus activity. Tropical inter-seasonal activity was higher with periods of marked increase. Influenza A was dominant, although influenza B represented up to 72% and 42% of notifications during some seasonal and inter-seasonal periods, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Using notification and testing data, we have demonstrated a gradual increase in inter-seasonal influenza over time. Our findings suggest this increase results from an interplay between testing, activity and intensity, and strain circulation. Seasonal intensity and strain circulation appeared to modify subsequent period intensity. Routine year-round surveillance data would provide a better understanding of influenza epidemiology during this infrequently studied inter-seasonal time period.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elenor J Kerr
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.,Communicable Diseases Branch, Queensland Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Jonathan Malo
- Communicable Diseases Branch, Queensland Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Kaitlyn Vette
- National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Graeme R Nimmo
- Pathology Queensland, Queensland Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Stephen B Lambert
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.,Communicable Diseases Branch, Queensland Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
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19
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Vanderburg S, Wijayaratne G, Danthanarayana N, Jayamaha J, Piyasiri B, Halloluwa C, Sheng T, Amarasena S, Kurukulasooriya R, Nicholson BP, Peiris JSM, Gray GC, Gunasena S, Nagahawatte A, Bodinayake CK, Woods CW, Devasiri V, Tillekeratne LG. Outbreak of severe acute respiratory infection in Southern Province, Sri Lanka in 2018: a cross-sectional study. BMJ Open 2020; 10:e040612. [PMID: 33158834 PMCID: PMC7651749 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-040612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine aetiology of illness among children and adults presenting during outbreak of severe respiratory illness in Southern Province, Sri Lanka, in 2018. DESIGN Prospective, cross-sectional study. SETTING 1600-bed, public, tertiary care hospital in Southern Province, Sri Lanka. PARTICIPANTS 410 consecutive patients, including 371 children and 39 adults, who were admitted with suspected viral pneumonia (passive surveillance) or who met case definition for acute respiratory illness (active surveillance) in May to June 2018. RESULTS We found that cocirculation of influenza A (22.6% of cases), respiratory syncytial virus (27.8%) and adenovirus (AdV) (30.7%; type B3) was responsible for the outbreak. Mortality was noted in 4.5% of paediatric cases identified during active surveillance. Virus type and viral coinfection were not significantly associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS This is the first report of intense cocirculation of multiple respiratory viruses as a cause of an outbreak of severe acute respiratory illness in Sri Lanka, and the first time that AdV has been documented as a cause of a respiratory outbreak in the country. Our results emphasise the need for continued vigilance in surveying for known and emerging respiratory viruses in the tropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sky Vanderburg
- Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Medicine, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, California, USA
| | | | | | - Jude Jayamaha
- Medical Research Institute Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | | | | | - Tianchen Sheng
- Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Gregory C Gray
- Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Ajith Nagahawatte
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Ruhuna, Galle, Sri Lanka
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Champica K Bodinayake
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Ruhuna, Galle, Sri Lanka
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Christopher W Woods
- Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - L Gayani Tillekeratne
- Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Ruhuna, Galle, Sri Lanka
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA
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20
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Suntronwong N, Vichaiwattana P, Klinfueng S, Korkong S, Thongmee T, Vongpunsawad S, Poovorawan Y. Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0239729. [PMID: 32991630 PMCID: PMC7523966 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2019] [Accepted: 09/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Yearly increase in influenza activity is associated with cold and dry winter in the temperate regions, while influenza patterns in tropical countries vary significantly by regional climates and geographic locations. To examine the association between influenza activity in Thailand and local climate factors including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, we analyzed the influenza surveillance data from January 2010 to December 2018 obtained from a large private hospital in Bangkok. We found that approximately one in five influenza-like illness samples (21.6% or 6,678/30,852) tested positive for influenza virus. Influenza virus typing showed that 34.2% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 46.0% were influenza A(H3N2), and 19.8% were influenza B virus. There were two seasonal waves of increased influenza activity. Peak influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 activity occurred in February and again in August, while influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses were primarily detected in August and September. Time series analysis suggests that increased relative humidity was significantly associated with increased influenza activity in Bangkok. Months with peak influenza activity generally followed the most humid months of the year. We performed the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) multivariate analysis of all influenza activity on the 2011 to 2017 data to predict the influenza activity for 2018. The resulting model closely resembled the actual observed overall influenza detected that year. Consequently, the ability to predict seasonal pattern of influenza in a large tropical city such as Bangkok may enable better public health planning and underscores the importance of annual influenza vaccination prior to the rainy season.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nungruthai Suntronwong
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Preeyaporn Vichaiwattana
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Sirapa Klinfueng
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Sumeth Korkong
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Thanunrat Thongmee
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Sompong Vongpunsawad
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Yong Poovorawan
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
- * E-mail:
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21
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Impact of quadrivalent influenza vaccines in Brazil: a cost-effectiveness analysis using an influenza transmission model. BMC Public Health 2020; 20:1374. [PMID: 32907562 PMCID: PMC7487874 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-09409-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2019] [Accepted: 08/19/2020] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Influenza epidemics significantly weight on the Brazilian healthcare system and its society. Public health authorities have progressively expanded recommendations for vaccination against influenza, particularly to the pediatric population. However, the potential mismatch between the trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) strains and those circulating during the season remains an issue. Quadrivalent vaccines improves vaccines effectiveness by preventing any potential mismatch on influenza B lineages. METHODS We evaluate the public health and economic benefits of the switch from TIV to QIV for the pediatric influenza recommendation (6mo-5yo) by using a dynamic epidemiological model able to consider the indirect impact of vaccination. Results of the epidemiological model are then imputed in a health-economic model adapted to the Brazilian context. We perform deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for both epidemiological and economical sources of uncertainty. RESULTS Our results show that switching from TIV to QIV in the Brazilian pediatric population would prevent 406,600 symptomatic cases, 11,300 hospitalizations and almost 400 deaths by influenza season. This strategy would save 3400 life-years yearly for an incremental direct cost of R$169 million per year, down to R$86 million from a societal perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the switch would be R$49,700 per life-year saved and R$26,800 per quality-adjusted life-year gained from a public payer perspective, and even more cost-effective from a societal perspective. Our results are qualitatively similar in our sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS Our analysis shows that switching from TIV to QIV to protect children aged 6mo to 5yo in the Brazilian influenza epidemiological context could have a strong public health impact and represent a cost-effective strategy from a public payer perspective, and a highly cost-effective one from a societal perspective.
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Dave K, Lee PC. Global Geographical and Temporal Patterns of Seasonal Influenza and Associated Climatic Factors. Epidemiol Rev 2020; 41:51-68. [PMID: 31565734 DOI: 10.1093/epirev/mxz008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2018] [Revised: 05/11/2019] [Accepted: 09/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding geographical and temporal patterns of seasonal influenza can help strengthen influenza surveillance to early detect epidemics and inform influenza prevention and control programs. We examined variations in spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal influenza in different global regions and explored climatic factors that influence differences in influenza seasonality, through a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications. The literature search was conducted to identify original studies published between January 2005 and November 2016. Studies were selected using predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The primary outcome was influenza cases; additional outcomes included seasonal or temporal patterns of influenza seasonality, study regions (temperate or tropical), and associated climatic factors. Of the 2,160 records identified in the selection process, 36 eligible studies were included. There were significant differences in influenza seasonality in terms of the time of onset, duration, number of peaks, and amplitude of epidemics between temperate and tropical/subtropical regions. Different viral types, cocirculation of influenza viruses, and climatic factors, especially temperature and absolute humidity, contributed to the variations in spatiotemporal patterns of seasonal influenza. The findings reported in this review could inform global surveillance of seasonal influenza and influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination recommendations for different regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kunjal Dave
- Bioscience Department, Endeavour College of Natural Health, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Patricia C Lee
- School of Medicine, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.,Menzies Health Institute, Queensland, Australia.,Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung City, Taiwan
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23
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Su W, Liu T, Geng X, Yang G. Seasonal pattern of influenza and the association with meteorological factors based on wavelet analysis in Jinan City, Eastern China, 2013-2016. PeerJ 2020; 8:e8626. [PMID: 32195046 PMCID: PMC7067199 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.8626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2019] [Accepted: 01/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Influenza is a disease under surveillance worldwide with different seasonal patterns in temperate and tropical regions. Previous studies have conducted modeling of influenza seasonality using climate variables. This study aimed to identify potential meteorological factors that are associated with influenza seasonality in Jinan, China. Methods Data from three influenza sentinel hospitals and respective climate factors (average temperature, relatively humidity (RH), absolute humidity (AH), sunshine duration, accumulated rainfall and speed of wind), from 2013 to 2016, were collected. Statistical and wavelet analyses were used to explore the epidemiological characteristics of influenza virus and its potential association with climate factors. Results The dynamic of influenza was characterized by annual cycle, with remarkable winter epidemic peaks from December to February. Spearman's correlation and wavelet coherence analysis illuminated that temperature, AH and atmospheric pressure were main influencing factors. Multiple wavelet coherence analysis showed that temperature and atmospheric pressure might be the main influencing factors of influenza virus A(H3N2) and influenza virus B, whereas temperature and AH might best shape the seasonality of influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09. During the epidemic season, the prevalence of influenza virus lagged behind the change of temperature by 1-8 weeks and atmospheric pressure by 0.5-3 weeks for different influenza viruses. Conclusion Climate factors were significantly associated with influenza seasonality in Jinan during the influenza epidemic season and the optional time for influenza vaccination is before November. These finding should be considered in influenza planning of control and prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Su
- School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
| | - Ti Liu
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong University Institution for Prevention Medicine, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
| | - Xingyi Geng
- Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
| | - Guoliang Yang
- Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
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24
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Young BE, Chen M. Influenza in temperate and tropical Asia: a review of epidemiology and vaccinology. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2020; 16:1659-1667. [PMID: 32017650 PMCID: PMC7482764 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2019.1703455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The impact of seasonal influenza has been under-appreciated in Asia and surveillance data lags in most other regions. The variety of influenza circulation patterns in Asia – largely due to the range of climates – has also only recently been recognized and its effect on the burden of disease is not fully understood. Recent reports that clinical protection wanes in the weeks after influenza vaccination emphasize the importance of optimally timing vaccination to local epidemiology. It also raises questions as to whether influenza vaccines should be administered more frequently than annually and what may be the benefits in Asia of access to new vaccines with enhanced immunogenicity and effectiveness. This review will summarize influenza surveillance data from Asian countries over 2011–2018, and consider the implications for vaccination strategies in different parts of Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barnaby Edward Young
- Department of Infectious Diseases, National Centre for Infectious Diseases , Singapore.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Tan Tock Seng Hospital , Singapore.,Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University , Singapore
| | - M Chen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, National Centre for Infectious Diseases , Singapore.,Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore
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25
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Mantel C, Chu SY, Hyde TB, Lambach P. Seasonal influenza vaccination in middle-income countries: Assessment of immunization practices in Belarus, Morocco, and Thailand. Vaccine 2020; 38:212-219. [PMID: 31699507 PMCID: PMC6961110 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.10.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2018] [Revised: 10/09/2019] [Accepted: 10/10/2019] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vaccines for the control of seasonal influenza are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for use in specific risk groups, but their use requires operational considerations that may challenge immunization programs. Several middle-income countries have recently implemented seasonal influenza vaccination. Early program evaluation following vaccine introduction can help ascertain positive lessons learned and areas for improvement. METHODS An influenza vaccine post-introduction evaluation (IPIE) tool was developed jointly by WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to provide a systematic approach to assess influenza vaccine implementation processes. The tool was used in 2017 in three middle-income countries: Belarus, Morocco and Thailand. RESULTS Data from the three countries highlighted a number of critical factors: Health workers (HWs) are a key target group, given their roles as key influencers of acceptance by other groups, and for ensuring vaccine delivery and improved coverage. Despite WHO recommendations, pregnant women were not always prioritized and may present unique challenges for acceptance. Target group denominators need to be better defined, and vaccine coverage should be validated with vaccine distribution data, including from the private sector. There is a need for strengthening adverse events reporting and for addressing potential vaccine hesitancy through the establishment of risk communication plans. The assessments led to improvements in the countries' influenza vaccination programs, including a revision of policies, changes in vaccine management and coverage estimation, enhanced strategies for educating HWs and intensified collaboration between departments involved in implementing seasonal influenza vaccination. CONCLUSION The IPIE tool was found useful for delineating operational strengths and weaknesses of seasonal influenza vaccination programs. HWs emerged as a critical target group to be addressed in follow-up action. Findings from this study can help direct influenza vaccination programs in other countries, as well as contribute to pandemic preparedness efforts. The updated IPIE tool is available on the WHO website http://www.who.int/immunization/research/development/influenza/en/index1.html.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Susan Y Chu
- Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Terri B Hyde
- Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Philipp Lambach
- Initiative for Vaccine Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
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26
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Xu ZW, Li ZJ, Hu WB. Global dynamic spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza since 2009 influenza pandemic. Infect Dis Poverty 2020; 9:2. [PMID: 31900215 PMCID: PMC6942408 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-019-0618-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2019] [Accepted: 12/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Understanding the global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza is essential for influenza control and prevention. Available data on the updated global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza are scarce. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic. Methods Weekly influenza surveillance data in 86 countries from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from FluNet. First, the proportion of influenza A in total influenza viruses (PA) was calculated. Second, weekly numbers of influenza positive virus (A and B) were divided by the total number of samples processed to get weekly positive rates of influenza A (RWA) and influenza B (RWB). Third, the average positive rates of influenza A (RA) and influenza B (RB) for each country were calculated by averaging RWA, and RWB of 52 weeks. A Kruskal-Wallis test was conducted to examine if the year-to-year change in PA in all countries were significant, and a universal kriging method with linear semivariogram model was used to extrapolate RA and RB in all countries. Results PA ranged from 0.43 in Zambia to 0.98 in Belarus, and PA in countries with higher income was greater than those countries with lower income. The spatial patterns of high RB were the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia-Pacific region and South America. RWA peaked in early weeks in temperate countries, and the peak of RWB occurred a bit later. There were some temperate countries with non-distinct influenza seasonality (e.g., Mauritius and Maldives) and some tropical/subtropical countries with distinct influenza seasonality (e.g., Chile and South Africa). Conclusions Influenza seasonality is not predictable in some temperate countries, and it is distinct in Chile, Argentina and South Africa, implying that the optimal timing for influenza vaccination needs to be chosen with caution in these unpredictable countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhi-Wei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.,Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.,School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Zhong-Jie Li
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wen-Biao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. .,Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
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Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Prevents Illness and Reduces Healthcare Utilization Across Diverse Geographic Regions During Five Influenza Seasons: A Randomized Clinical Trial. Pediatr Infect Dis J 2020; 39:e1-e10. [PMID: 31725115 PMCID: PMC7004464 DOI: 10.1097/inf.0000000000002504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We evaluated an inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (IIV4) in children 6-35 months of age in a phase III, observer-blind trial. METHODS The aim of this analysis was to estimate vaccine efficacy (VE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in each of 5 independent seasonal cohorts (2011-2014), as well as vaccine impact on healthcare utilization in 3 study regions (Europe/Mediterranean, Asia-Pacific and Central America). Healthy children were randomized 1:1 to IIV4 or control vaccines. VE was estimated against influenza confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction on nasal swabs. Cultured isolates were characterized as antigenically matched/mismatched to vaccine strains. RESULTS The total vaccinated cohort included 12,018 children (N = 1777, 2526, 1564, 1501 and 4650 in cohorts 1-5, respectively). For reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction confirmed influenza of any severity (all strains combined), VE in cohorts 1-5 was 57.8%, 52.9%, 73.4%, 30.3% and 41.4%, respectively, with the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval >0 for all estimates. The proportion of vaccine match for all strains combined in each cohort was 0.9%, 79.3%, 72.5%, 24.1% and 28.6%, respectively. Antibiotic use associated with influenza illness was reduced with IIV4 by 71% in Europe, 36% in Asia Pacific and 59% in Central America. CONCLUSIONS IIV4 prevented influenza in children 6-35 months of age in each of 5 separate influenza seasons in diverse geographical regions. A possible interaction between VE, degree of vaccine match and socioeconomic status was observed. The IIV4 attenuated the severity of breakthrough influenza illness and reduced healthcare utilization, particularly antibiotic use.
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Zhang Y, Wang X, Li Y, Ma J. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Influenza in China, 2005-2018. Sci Rep 2019; 9:19650. [PMID: 31873144 PMCID: PMC6928232 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-56104-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2019] [Accepted: 12/04/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, as well as in China. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal characteristics of influenza is important in evaluating and developing disease control programs. This study aims to describe an accurate spatiotemporal pattern of influenza at the prefecture level and explore the risk factors associated with influenza incidence risk in mainland China from 2005 to 2018. The incidence data of influenza were obtained from the Chinese Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System (CNIDRS). The Besag York Mollié (BYM) model was extended to include temporal and space-time interaction terms. The parameters for this extended Bayesian spatiotemporal model were estimated through integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) using the package R-INLA in R. A total of 702,226 influenza cases were reported in mainland China in CNIDRS from 2005–2018. The yearly reported incidence rate of influenza increased 15.6 times over the study period, from 3.51 in 2005 to 55.09 in 2008 per 100,000 populations. The temporal term in the spatiotemporal model showed that much of the increase occurred during the last 3 years of the study period. The risk factor analysis showed that the decreased number of influenza vaccines for sale, the new update of the influenza surveillance protocol, the increase in the rate of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 among all processed specimens from influenza-like illness (ILI) patients, and the increase in the latitude and longitude of geographic location were associated with an increase in the influenza incidence risk. After the adjusting for fixed covariate effects and time random effects, the map of the spatial structured term shows that high-risk areas clustered in the central part of China and the lowest-risk areas in the east and west. Large space-time variations in influenza have been found since 2009. In conclusion, an increasing trend of influenza was observed from 2005 to 2018. The insufficient flu vaccine supplements, the newly emerging influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 and expansion of influenza surveillance efforts might be the major causes of the dramatic changes in outbreak and spatio-temporal epidemic patterns. Clusters of prefectures with high relative risks of influenza were identified in the central part of China. Future research with more risk factors at both national and local levels is necessary to explain the changing spatiotemporal patterns of influenza in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yewu Zhang
- Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Service, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaofeng Wang
- Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Service, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yanfei Li
- Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Service, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jiaqi Ma
- Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Service, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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Njouom R, Monamele CG, Munshili Njifon HL, Kenmoe S, Ripa Njankouo M. Circulation of influenza virus from 2009 to 2018 in Cameroon: 10 years of surveillance data. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0225793. [PMID: 31794579 PMCID: PMC6890244 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225793] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2019] [Accepted: 11/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the recent emergence of several subtypes of influenza viruses with pandemic potentials, there has been growing interest on the control of this infection worldwide. This study aimed to describe the 10 years of influenza activity in Cameroon between January 2009 and December 2018. Respiratory samples were collected from sentinel sites responsible for influenza surveillance in Cameroon and analyzed for the presence of influenza. Globally, 9 of the 10 administrative regions of the country were represented with at least 1 year of data. A total of 11816 respiratory samples were collected and influenza virus detection rate was 24.0%. The most represented age group was the 0-1 years representing more than 40% of the collected samples and possessing the lowest proportion of influenza cases (16.2%). Meanwhile higher proportions of influenza positive cases was found in the 2-4, 5-14 and 15-49 years age group at ≥29%. Among outpatients, the frequency of influenza virus was 24.8% while in hospitalized patients, 18.7% of samples were positive for influenza virus. We noted year-round circulation of influenza virus in Cameroon with 2 peaks in activity: a major peak in the months of September to December and a minor peak in the months of March to July. Antigenic characterization of influenza isolates showed 37.5% (6/16) vaccine match between the predominant Cameroon strains and the Northern hemisphere vaccine strains with majority of vaccine match observed in influenza B/Victoria subtype (4/6; 66.7%). Data collected from this surveillance system is essential to add to global information on the spread of influenza.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Njouom
- Virology department, Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- * E-mail:
| | | | | | - Sebastien Kenmoe
- Virology department, Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaoundé, Cameroon
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30
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Caini S, Kusznierz G, Garate VV, Wangchuk S, Thapa B, de Paula Júnior FJ, Ferreira de Almeida WA, Njouom R, Fasce RA, Bustos P, Feng L, Peng Z, Araya JL, Bruno A, de Mora D, Barahona de Gámez MJ, Pebody R, Zambon M, Higueros R, Rivera R, Kosasih H, Castrucci MR, Bella A, Kadjo HA, Daouda C, Makusheva A, Bessonova O, Chaves SS, Emukule GO, Heraud JM, Razanajatovo NH, Barakat A, El Falaki F, Meijer A, Donker GA, Huang QS, Wood T, Balmaseda A, Palekar R, Arévalo BM, Rodrigues AP, Guiomar R, Lee VJM, Ang LW, Cohen C, Treurnicht F, Mironenko A, Holubka O, Bresee J, Brammer L, Le MTQ, Hoang PVM, El Guerche-Séblain C, Paget J. The epidemiological signature of influenza B virus and its B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in the 21st century. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0222381. [PMID: 31513690 PMCID: PMC6742362 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 88] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2019] [Accepted: 08/29/2019] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
We describe the epidemiological characteristics, pattern of circulation, and geographical distribution of influenza B viruses and its lineages using data from the Global Influenza B Study. We included over 1.8 million influenza cases occurred in thirty-one countries during 2000–2018. We calculated the proportion of cases caused by influenza B and its lineages; determined the timing of influenza A and B epidemics; compared the age distribution of B/Victoria and B/Yamagata cases; and evaluated the frequency of lineage-level mismatch for the trivalent vaccine. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by influenza B virus was 23.4%, with a tendency (borderline statistical significance, p = 0.060) to be higher in tropical vs. temperate countries. Influenza B was the dominant virus type in about one every seven seasons. In temperate countries, influenza B epidemics occurred on average three weeks later than influenza A epidemics; no consistent pattern emerged in the tropics. The two B lineages caused a comparable proportion of influenza B cases globally, however the B/Yamagata was more frequent in temperate countries, and the B/Victoria in the tropics (p = 0.048). B/Yamagata patients were significantly older than B/Victoria patients in almost all countries. A lineage-level vaccine mismatch was observed in over 40% of seasons in temperate countries and in 30% of seasons in the tropics. The type B virus caused a substantial proportion of influenza infections globally in the 21st century, and its two virus lineages differed in terms of age and geographical distribution of patients. These findings will help inform health policy decisions aiming to reduce disease burden associated with seasonal influenza.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saverio Caini
- Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), Utrecht, The Netherlands
- * E-mail:
| | - Gabriela Kusznierz
- National Institute of Respiratory Diseases "Emilio Coni", Santa Fe, Argentina
| | | | - Sonam Wangchuk
- Royal Centre for Disease Control, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Thimphu, Bhutan
| | - Binay Thapa
- Royal Centre for Disease Control, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Thimphu, Bhutan
| | | | | | - Richard Njouom
- Virology Department, Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | - Rodrigo A. Fasce
- Sub-Department of Viral Diseases, Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Patricia Bustos
- Sub-Department of Viral Diseases, Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Luzhao Feng
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Zhibin Peng
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, P.R. China
| | - Jenny Lara Araya
- National Influenza Center, Ministry of Health, San José, Costa Rica
| | - Alfredo Bruno
- National Institute of Public Health Research (INSPI), National Reference Centre for Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Guayaquil, Ecuador
- Agricultural University of Ecuador, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Doménica de Mora
- National Institute of Public Health Research (INSPI), National Reference Centre for Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | | | | | - Maria Zambon
- Public Health England, London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Rocio Higueros
- National Influenza Center, Ministry of Health, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | | | | | - Maria Rita Castrucci
- National Influenza Center, Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy
| | - Antonino Bella
- Department of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Health, Rome, Italy
| | - Hervé A. Kadjo
- Department of Epidemic Virus, Institut Pasteur, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
| | - Coulibaly Daouda
- Service of Epidemiological Diseases Surveillance, National Institute of Public Hygiene, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
| | - Ainash Makusheva
- National Center of Expertise, Committee of Public Health Protection, Ministry of Health, Astana, Kazakhstan
| | - Olga Bessonova
- National Center of Expertise, Committee of Public Health Protection, Ministry of Health, Uralsk City, Kazakhstan
| | - Sandra S. Chaves
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Gideon O. Emukule
- Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jean-Michel Heraud
- National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Norosoa H. Razanajatovo
- National Influenza Center, Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar
| | - Amal Barakat
- National Influenza Center, Institut National d'Hygiène, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
| | - Fatima El Falaki
- National Influenza Center, Institut National d'Hygiène, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
| | - Adam Meijer
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Diseases Research, Diagnostics and Laboratory Surveillance, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Gé A. Donker
- Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Q. Sue Huang
- Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Weillngton, New Zealand
| | - Tim Wood
- Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Weillngton, New Zealand
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- National Influenza Center, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Rakhee Palekar
- Pan American Health Organization, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | | | - Ana Paula Rodrigues
- Department of epidemiology, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Raquel Guiomar
- National Influenza Reference Laboratory, National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | | | - Li Wei Ang
- Public Health Group, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Florette Treurnicht
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Alla Mironenko
- L.V.Gromashevsky Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases, National Academy of Medical Science of Ukraine, Department of Respiratory and other Viral Infections, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | - Olha Holubka
- L.V.Gromashevsky Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases, National Academy of Medical Science of Ukraine, Department of Respiratory and other Viral Infections, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | - Joseph Bresee
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Lynnette Brammer
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Mai T. Q. Le
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Clotilde El Guerche-Séblain
- Global Vaccine Epidemiology and Modeling Department (VEM), Franchise Epidemiologist, Sanofi Pasteur, Lyon, France
| | - John Paget
- Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Costantino V, Trent M, MacIntyre CR. Modelling of optimal timing for influenza vaccination as a function of intraseasonal waning of immunity and vaccine coverage. Vaccine 2019; 37:6768-6775. [PMID: 31521411 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.08.069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2019] [Revised: 08/14/2019] [Accepted: 08/27/2019] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
The influenza season in Australia usually peaks in August. Vaccination is recommended beginning in March-April. Recent studies suggest that vaccine effectiveness may wane over a given influenza season, leading to reduced effectiveness at the peak of the season. We aimed to quantify how changes in timing of influenza vaccination and declining vaccine coverage could change the percentages of prevented cases. Results from a systematic review were used to inform calculation of a waning function over time from vaccination. Age specific notification data and vaccine effectiveness and coverage estimates from 2007 to 2016 (2009 influenza pandemic year excluded) were used to model a new notification series where vaccine effectiveness is shifted in time to account for delayed vaccination by month from March to August. A sensitivity analysis was done on possible vaccine coverage changes and considering time gap between vaccine uptake and recommendation. Delaying vaccination from March to end of May prevents more cases over a season, but the variation in cases prevented by month of vaccination is not large. If delaying vaccination results in missed or forgotten vaccination and decrease coverage, delaying vaccination could have a net negative impact. Furthermore, considering a time gap between recommendation and uptake, earlier recommendation is more effective in preventing cases. The results are sensitive to assumptions of intra-seasonal waning of effectiveness. More research is required on intra-seasonal vaccine effectiveness waning and the effect of delayed vaccination on overall uptake to inform any potential changes to current vaccine scheduling recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valentina Costantino
- Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
| | - Mallory Trent
- Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
| | - C Raina MacIntyre
- Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; College of Public Service and Community Solutions, Arizona State University, Arizona, USA.
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32
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Ferreira HLDS, Costa KLP, Cariolano MS, Oliveira GS, Felipe KKP, Silva ESA, Alves MS, Maramaldo CEC, de Sousa EM, Rego JS, Silva ICPA, Albuquerque RKS, Araújo NSC, Amorim AMM, Costa LD, Pinheiro CS, Guimarães VA, Santos MC, Mello WA, Falcai A, Lima-Neto LG. High incidence of rhinovirus infection in children with community-acquired pneumonia from a city in the Brazilian pre-Amazon region. J Med Virol 2019; 91:1751-1758. [PMID: 31230362 PMCID: PMC7166869 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2018] [Accepted: 06/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Community‐acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of child death worldwide. Viruses are the most common pathogens associated with CAP in children, but their incidence varies greatly. This study investigated the presence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus, human rhinovirus (HRV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), human coronavirus (HCoV‐OC43 and HCoV‐NL63), and influenza A virus (FluA) in children with CAP and the contributing risk factors. Here, children with acute respiratory infections were screened by pediatrics; and a total of 150 radiographically‐confirmed CAP patients (aged 3 months to 10 years) from two clinical centers in Sao Luis, Brazil were recruited. Patient's clinical and epidemiological data were recorded. Nasopharyngeal swab and tracheal aspirate samples were collected to extract viral nucleic acid. RSV, adenovirus, rhinovirus, FluA, HMPV, HCoV‐OC43, and HCoV‐NL63 were detected by real‐time polymerase chain reaction. The severe CAP was associated with ages between 3 and 12 months. Viruses were detected in 43% of CAP patients. Rhinovirus infections were the most frequently identified (68%). RSV, adenovirus, FluA, and coinfections were identified in 14%, 14%, 5%, and 15% of children with viral infection, respectively. Rhinovirus was associated with nonsevere CAP (P = .014); RSV, FluA, and coinfections were associated with severe CAP (P < .05). New strategies for prevention and treatment of viral respiratory infections, mainly rhinovirus and RSV infections, are necessary. This is the first study conducted in a city in the Brazilian pre‐Amazon region to identify viruses in children with CAP. Rhinovirus infections were the most frequently identified. RSV, adenovirus, FluA, and co‐infections were associated with severe CAP.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Gustavo S Oliveira
- Programa de Pós-Graduação, Universidade CEUMA, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | - Karen K P Felipe
- Programa de Pós-Graduação, Universidade CEUMA, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | - Elen S A Silva
- Programa de Pós-Graduação, Universidade CEUMA, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | - Matheus S Alves
- Programa de Pós-Graduação, Universidade CEUMA, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | | | - Eduardo M de Sousa
- Programa de Pós-Graduação, Universidade CEUMA, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | - Joseany S Rego
- Complexo Hospitalar Materno Infantil do Maranhão Hospital Dr. Juvêncio Mattos Maternidade Benedito Leite, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | - Ilana C P A Silva
- Programa de Pós-Graduação, Universidade CEUMA, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | | | | | - Angela M M Amorim
- Hospital da Criança Dr. Odorico de Amaral Matos, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | - Luciane D Costa
- Hospital da Criança Dr. Odorico de Amaral Matos, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | | | - Vinícius A Guimarães
- Hospital Universitário, Universidade Federal do Maranhão, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
| | - Mirleide C Santos
- Instituto Evandro Chagas, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Ananindeua, Pará, Brasil
| | - Wyller A Mello
- Instituto Evandro Chagas, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Ananindeua, Pará, Brasil
| | - Angela Falcai
- Mestrado em Meio Ambiente, Universidade CEUMA, São Luís, Maranhão, Brasil
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33
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Horwood PF, Karlsson EA, Horm SV, Ly S, Heng S, Chin S, Darapheak C, Saunders D, Chanthap L, Rith S, Y P, Chea KL, Sar B, Parry A, Ieng V, Tsuyouka R, Deng YM, Hurt AC, Barr IG, Komadina N, Buchy P, Dussart P. Circulation and characterization of seasonal influenza viruses in Cambodia, 2012-2015. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2019; 13:465-476. [PMID: 31251478 PMCID: PMC6692578 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2018] [Revised: 12/13/2018] [Accepted: 04/26/2019] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Influenza virus circulation is monitored through the Cambodian influenza‐like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance system and isolates are characterized by the National Influenza Centre (NIC). Seasonal influenza circulation has previously been characterized by year‐round activity and a peak during the rainy season (June‐November). Objectives We documented the circulation of seasonal influenza in Cambodia for 2012‐2015 and investigated genetic, antigenic, and antiviral resistance characteristics of influenza isolates. Patients/Methods Respiratory samples were collected from patients presenting with influenza‐like illness (ILI) at 11 hospitals throughout Cambodia. First‐line screening was conducted by the National Institute of Public Health and the Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences. Confirmation of testing and genetic, antigenic and antiviral resistance characterization was conducted by Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, the NIC. Additional virus characterization was conducted by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza (Melbourne, Australia). Results Between 2012 and 2015, 1,238 influenza‐positive samples were submitted to the NIC. Influenza A(H3N2) (55.3%) was the dominant subtype, followed by influenza B (30.9%; predominantly B/Yamagata‐lineage) and A(H1N1)pdm09 (13.9%). Circulation of influenza viruses began earlier in 2014 and 2015 than previously described, coincident with the emergence of A(H3N2) clades 3C.2a and 3C.3a, respectively. There was high diversity in the antigenicity of A(H3N2) viruses, and to a smaller extent influenza B viruses, during this period, with some mismatches with the northern and southern hemisphere vaccine formulations. All isolates tested were susceptible to the influenza antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir. Conclusions Seasonal and year‐round co‐circulation of multiple influenza types/subtypes were detected in Cambodia during 2012‐2015.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul F Horwood
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.,Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
| | - Erik A Karlsson
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Srey Viseth Horm
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Sovann Ly
- Communicable Disease Control Department, Ministry of Health, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Seng Heng
- Communicable Disease Control Department, Ministry of Health, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Savuth Chin
- National Institute of Public Health, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Chau Darapheak
- National Institute of Public Health, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - David Saunders
- Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Lon Chanthap
- Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Sareth Rith
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Phalla Y
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Kim Lay Chea
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Borann Sar
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Amy Parry
- World Health Organization, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Vanra Ieng
- World Health Organization, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | | | - Yi-Mo Deng
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, VIDRL, Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Aeron C Hurt
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, VIDRL, Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ian G Barr
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, VIDRL, Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Naomi Komadina
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, VIDRL, Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Philippe Buchy
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.,GlaxoSmithKline Vaccines R&D Intercontinental, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Philippe Dussart
- Virology Unit, Institute Pasteur in Cambodia, Institute Pasteur International Network, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
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34
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Ang LW, Cui L, Mak TM, Ng Y, Leo YS, Lee VJM, Lin RTP. Differential age-specific distribution of influenza virus types and subtypes in tropical Singapore, 2011 to 2017. J Med Virol 2019; 91:1415-1422. [PMID: 30927452 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2019] [Revised: 03/26/2019] [Accepted: 03/27/2019] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
Surveillance and reporting of epidemiological features of seasonal influenza mostly are aggregates across all-ages. We investigated age-specific differences in distribution of influenza virus (sub)types in tropical Singapore, using laboratory-confirmed virological data collected under the national influenza surveillance programme from 2011 to 2017. The proportion of influenza-positive specimens from outpatients with influenza-like illness was used as an indicator of influenza activity in the community. The highest influenza positivity for age groups of 5 to 14 years and 15 to 64 years coincided in the same month in 5 out of the 7 years under study. Influenza positivity was lowest in young children <5 years of age compared with older age groups. Influenza A(H3N2) was most prevalent in the community except in 2012 when a predominance of influenza B was observed. The dominant virus (sub)type varied across the years in children <5 years and 5 to 14 years of age. Influenza A(H3N2) was the predominant circulating virus subtype among elderly persons aged ≥65 years during the 7-year period, and among adults aged 15 to 64 years since 2013. Knowledge about the age-specific differences in distribution of influenza virus (sub)types helps to facilitate better understanding of seasonal epidemics and to inform targeted strategies in prevention and control of influenza virus transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Wei Ang
- National Public Health and Epidemiology Unit, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore.,Public Health Group, Ministry of Health, Singapore
| | - Lin Cui
- National Public Health Laboratory, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore
| | - Tze Minn Mak
- National Public Health Laboratory, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore
| | - Yixiang Ng
- Public Health Group, Ministry of Health, Singapore
| | - Yee Sin Leo
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore
| | | | - Raymond Tzer-Pin Lin
- National Public Health Laboratory, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore
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35
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Peci A, Winter AL, Li Y, Gnaneshan S, Liu J, Mubareka S, Gubbay JB. Effects of Absolute Humidity, Relative Humidity, Temperature, and Wind Speed on Influenza Activity in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Appl Environ Microbiol 2019; 85:e02426-18. [PMID: 30610079 PMCID: PMC6414376 DOI: 10.1128/aem.02426-18] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2018] [Accepted: 12/12/2018] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The occurrence of influenza in different climates has been shown to be associated with multiple meteorological factors. The incidence of influenza has been reported to increase during rainy seasons in tropical climates and during the dry, cold months of winter in temperate climates. This study was designed to explore the role of absolute humidity (AH), relative humidity (RH), temperature, and wind speed (WS) on influenza activity in the Toronto, ON, Canada, area. Environmental data obtained from four meteorological stations in the Toronto area over the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were linked to patient influenza data obtained for the same locality and period. Data were analyzed using correlation, negative binomial regressions with linear predictors, and splines to capture the nonlinear relationship between exposure and outcomes. Our study found a negative association of both AH and temperature with influenza A and B virus infections. The effect of RH on influenza A and B viruses was controversial. Temperature fluctuation was associated with increased numbers of influenza B virus infections. Influenza virus was less likely to be detected from community patients than from patients tested as part of an institutional outbreak investigation. This could be more indicative of nosocomial transmission rather than climactic factors. The nonlinear nature of the relationship of influenza A virus with temperature and of influenza B virus with AH, RH, and temperature could explain the complexity and variation between influenza A and B virus infections. Predicting influenza activity is important for the timing of implementation of disease prevention and control measures as well as for resource allocation.IMPORTANCE This study examined the relationship between environmental factors and the occurrence of influenza in general. Since the seasonality of influenza A and B viruses is different in most temperate climates, we also examined each influenza virus separately. This study reports a negative association of both absolute humidity and temperature with influenza A and B viruses and tries to understand the controversial effect of RH on influenza A and B viruses. This study reports a nonlinear relation between influenza A and B viruses with temperature and influenza B virus with absolute and relative humidity. The nonlinear nature of these relations could explain the complexity and difference in seasonality between influenza A and B viruses, with the latter predominating later in the season. Separating community-based specimens from those obtained during outbreaks was also a novel approach in this research. These findings provide a further understanding of influenza virus transmission in temperate climates.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Ye Li
- Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Juan Liu
- Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Samira Mubareka
- Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jonathan B Gubbay
- Public Health Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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36
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Association of meteorological factors with seasonal activity of influenza A subtypes and B lineages in subtropical western China. Epidemiol Infect 2019; 147:e72. [PMID: 30869001 PMCID: PMC6518542 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268818003485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The seasonality of individual influenza subtypes/lineages and the association of influenza epidemics with meteorological factors in the tropics/subtropics have not been well understood. The impact of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic on the prevalence of seasonal influenza virus remains to be explored. Using wavelet analysis, the periodicities of A/H3N2, seasonal A/H1N1, A/H1N1pdm09, Victoria and Yamagata were identified, respectively, in Panzhihua during 2006–2015. As a subtropical city in southwestern China, Panzhihua is the first industrial city in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The relationship between influenza epidemics and local climatic variables was examined based on regression models. The temporal distribution of influenza subtypes/lineages during the pre-pandemic (2006–2009), pandemic (2009) and post-pandemic (2010–2015) years was described and compared. A total of 6892 respiratory specimens were collected and 737 influenza viruses were isolated. A/H3N2 showed an annual cycle with a peak in summer–autumn, while A/H1N1pdm09, Victoria and Yamagata exhibited an annual cycle with a peak in winter–spring. Regression analyses demonstrated that relative humidity was positively associated with A/H3N2 activity while negatively associated with Victoria activity. Higher prevalence of A/H1N1pdm09 and Yamagata was driven by lower absolute humidity. The role of weather conditions in regulating influenza epidemics could be complicated since the diverse viral transmission modes and mechanism. Differences in seasonality and different associations with meteorological factors by influenza subtypes/lineages should be considered in epidemiological studies in the tropics/subtropics. The development of subtype- and lineage-specific prevention and control measures is of significant importance.
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37
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Lansbury L, Rodrigo C, Leonardi‐Bee J, Nguyen‐Van‐Tam J, Lim WS. Corticosteroids as adjunctive therapy in the treatment of influenza. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2019; 2:CD010406. [PMID: 30798570 PMCID: PMC6387789 DOI: 10.1002/14651858.cd010406.pub3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Specific treatments for influenza are limited to neuraminidase inhibitors and adamantanes. Corticosteroids show evidence of benefit in sepsis and related conditions, most likely due to their anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory properties. Although commonly prescribed for severe influenza, there is uncertainty over their potential benefits or harms. This is an update of a review first published in 2016. OBJECTIVES To systematically assess the effectiveness and potential adverse effects of corticosteroids as adjunctive therapy in the treatment of influenza, taking into account differences in timing and doses of corticosteroids. SEARCH METHODS We searched CENTRAL (2018, Issue 9), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1946 to October week 1, 2018), Embase (1980 to 3 October 2018), CINAHL (1981 to 3 October 2018), LILACS (1982 to 3 October 2018), Web of Science (1985 to 3 October 2018), abstracts from the last three years of major infectious disease and microbiology conferences, and references of included articles. We also searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the ISRCTN registry on 3 October 2018. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, and observational studies that compared corticosteroid treatment with no corticosteroid treatment for influenza or influenza-like illness. We did not restrict studies by language of publication, influenza subtypes, clinical setting, or age of participants. We selected eligible studies in two stages: sequential examination of title and abstract, followed by full text. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We pooled estimates of effect using a random-effects model, where appropriate. We assessed heterogeneity using the I2 statistic and assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE framework. MAIN RESULTS This updated review includes 30 studies (one RCT with two arms and 29 observational studies) with a total of 99,224 participants. We included 19 studies in the original review (n = 3459), all of which were observational, with 13 studies included in the meta-analysis for mortality. We included 12 new studies in this update (one RCT and 11 observational studies), and excluded one study in the original review as it has been superceded by a more recent analysis. Twenty-one studies were included in the meta-analysis (9536 individuals), of which 15 studied people infected with 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09). Data specific to mortality were of very low quality, based predominantly on observational studies, with inconsistent reporting of variables potentially associated with the outcomes of interest, differences between studies in the way in which they were conducted, and with the likelihood of potential confounding by indication. Reported doses of corticosteroids used were high, and indications for their use were not well reported. On meta-analysis, corticosteroid therapy was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio (OR) 3.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.31 to 6.60; I2 = 68%; 15 studies). A similar increase in risk of mortality was seen in a stratified analysis of studies reporting adjusted estimates (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.54 to 3.24; I2 = 0%; 5 studies). An association between corticosteroid therapy and increased mortality was also seen on pooled analysis of six studies which reported adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.02; I2 = 69%). Increased odds of hospital-acquired infection related to corticosteroid therapy were found on pooled analysis of seven studies (pooled OR 2.74, 95% CI 1.51 to 4.95; I2 = 90%); all were unadjusted estimates, and we graded the data as of very low certainty. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS We found one RCT of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy for treating people with community-acquired pneumonia, but the number of people with laboratory-confirmed influenza in the treatment and placebo arms was too small to draw conclusions regarding the effect of corticosteroids in this group, and we did not include it in our meta-analyses of observational studies. The certainty of the available evidence from observational studies was very low, with confounding by indication a major potential concern. Although we found that adjunctive corticosteroid therapy is associated with increased mortality, this result should be interpreted with caution. In the context of clinical trials of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in sepsis and pneumonia that report improved outcomes, including decreased mortality, more high-quality research is needed (both RCTs and observational studies that adjust for confounding by indication). The currently available evidence is insufficient to determine the effectiveness of corticosteroids for people with influenza.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Lansbury
- The University of NottinghamDepartment of Epidemiology and Public HealthCity Hospital CampusHucknall RoadNottinghamUKNG5 1PB
| | - Chamira Rodrigo
- Nottingham University Hospitals TrustDepartment of Respiratory MedicineCity CampusHucknall RoadNottinghamNottinghamshireUKNG5 1PB
| | - Jo Leonardi‐Bee
- The University of NottinghamDivision of Epidemiology and Public HealthClinical Sciences BuildingNottingham City Hospital NHS Trust Campus, Hucknall RoadNottinghamUKNG5 1PB
| | - Jonathan Nguyen‐Van‐Tam
- The University of NottinghamFaculty of Medicine and Health SciencesRoom A40DClinical Sciences Building City Hospital Campus, Hucknall RoadNottinghamNottinghamshireUKNG5 1PB
| | - Wei Shen Lim
- Nottingham University Hospitals TrustDepartment of Respiratory MedicineCity CampusHucknall RoadNottinghamNottinghamshireUKNG5 1PB
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Sarrouf EB, Souza-Santos R, Cruz OG. [Mortality attributable to influenza in pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods in Argentina: an ecological study (2002-2016)Mortalidade atribuível à gripe no período pré-vacinal e pós-vacinal na Argentina: estudo ecológico (2002-2016)]. Rev Panam Salud Publica 2019; 43:e15. [PMID: 31093239 PMCID: PMC6398302 DOI: 10.26633/rpsp.2019.15] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2018] [Accepted: 10/25/2018] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Compare mortality from severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) attributable to influenza between pre-vaccination (pre-V) and post-vaccination (post-V) periods, to determine the historical evolution and seasonality of time series between 2002 and 2016, and to estimate the risk of death in children between 6 and 23 months of age, using a statistical model. METHODS Time-series study using official mortality data from the official statistical database on deaths. ICD-10 codes between J09-18.9 and J22X were considered to represent SARI. Crude rates and age-adjusted rates (AAR) were calculated, and pre-V (2002-2009) and post-V (2010-2016) periods were compared using the chi-squared (χ2) test. The best statistical model was the one that compared deaths from SARI in children during 2002 with other years. The data were analyzed with R programming (p <0.05). RESULTS 4.6% of deaths (301,747) were from SARI, with a median age of 82 years. The percentage of deaths under age 2 declined in the post-V period (from 2.34% to 0.99%, p < 0.05). Marked seasonality was observed in winter. The AAR in persons over age 64 rose from 259.8 per 100,000 population (pre-V) to 328.6 (post-V) (p < 0.05). In children, the crude rate dropped significantly. Compared with the year 2002, there was a significantly lower estimated risk of dying from SARI during the three years post-V. CONCLUSIONS The reduction in mortality from influenza in Argentina was more pronounced in children, with an estimated 3.5 fewer child deaths from SARI per month.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena B. Sarrouf
- Departamento de Estadísticas de Salud de los Servicios, Dirección de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud Pública de la provincia de Tucumán, Argentina
| | - Reinaldo Souza-Santos
- Departamento de Endemias Samuel Pessoa, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
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Temporal patterns of influenza A subtypes and B lineages across age in a subtropical city, during pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic seasons. BMC Infect Dis 2019; 19:89. [PMID: 30683067 PMCID: PMC6347769 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-019-3689-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2018] [Accepted: 01/07/2019] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Seasonal patterns of influenza A subtypes and B lineages in tropical/subtropical regions across age have remained to be explored. The impact of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic on seasonal influenza activity have not been well understood. Methods Based on a national sentinel hospital-based influenza surveillance system, the epidemiology of influenza virus during 2006/07–2015/16 was characterized in the subtropical city, Chengdu. Chengdu is one of the most populous cities in southwestern China, where the first reported case of A/H1N1pdm09 in mainland China was identified. Wavelet analysis was applied to identify the periodicities of A/H3N2, seasonal A/H1N1, A/H1N1pdm09, Victoria, and Yamagata across age, respectively. The persistence and age distribution patterns were described during the pre-pandemic (2006/07–2008/09), pandemic (2009/10), and post-pandemic (2010/11–2015/16) seasons. Results A total of 10,981 respiratory specimens were collected, of which 2516 influenza cases were identified. Periodicity transition from semi-annual cycles to an annual cycle was observed for composite influenza virus as well as A/H3N2 along in Chengdu since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Semi-annual cycles of composite influenza virus and A/H3N2 along were observed again during 2014/15–2015/16, coinciding with the emergence and predominance of A/H3N2 significant antigenic drift groups. However, A/H1N1pdm09, Victoria, and Yamagata generally demonstrated an annual winter-spring peak in non-pandemic seasons. Along with periodicity transitions, age groups with higher positive rates shifted from school-aged children and adults to adults and the elderly for A/H1N1pdm09 during 2009/10–2010/11 and for A/H3N2 during 2014/15–2015/16. Conclusions Differences in periodicity and age distribution by subtype/lineage and by season highlight the importance of increasing year-round influenza surveillance and developing subtype/lineage- and age-specific prevention and control measures. Changes of periodicity and age shifts should be considered in public health response to influenza pandemics and epidemics. In addition, it is suggested to use quadrivalent influenza vaccines to provide protection against both influenza B lineages. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3689-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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40
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Caini S, Schellevis F, El-Guerche Séblain C, Paget J. Important changes in the timing of influenza epidemics in the WHO European Region over the past 20 years: virological surveillance 1996 to 2016. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019; 23. [PMID: 29317016 PMCID: PMC5765775 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2018.23.1.17-00302] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
The global epidemiology of many infectious diseases is changing, but little attention has been paid to whether the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics changed in recent years. This study investigated whether the timing of the peak of influenza epidemics has changed in countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region between 1996 and 2016.
Methods: Surveillance data were obtained from the WHO FluNet database. For each country and season (July to June of the next year), the peak was defined as the week with the highest 3-week moving average for reported cases. Linear regression models were used to test for temporal trends in the timing of the epidemic peak in each country and to determine whether this differed geographically.
Results: More than 600,000 influenza cases were included from 38 countries of the WHO European Region. The timing of the epidemic peak changed according to a longitudinal gradient, occurring progressively later in Western Europe (e.g. by 2.8 days/season in Spain) and progressively earlier in Eastern Europe (e.g. by 3.5 days/season in the Russian Federation).
Discussion: These results were confirmed in several sensitivity analyses. Our findings have implications for influenza control and prevention measures in the WHO European Region, for instance for the implementation of influenza vaccination campaigns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saverio Caini
- Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - François Schellevis
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, EMGO Institute for Health and Care research, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.,Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - John Paget
- Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Almeida A, Codeço C, Luz PM. Seasonal dynamics of influenza in Brazil: the latitude effect. BMC Infect Dis 2018; 18:695. [PMID: 30587159 PMCID: PMC6307116 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-018-3484-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2018] [Accepted: 10/31/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Influenza is a global transmissible disease. Its dynamics is far better understood in temperate climates than in the tropics. We aim to close this knowledge gap between tropical and temperate regions by showing how the influenza seasonality evolves in Brazil, a tropical country that encompasses a wide range of latitudes and six climatic sub-types. METHODS We analyzed a state-level, weekly Syndrome of Acute Respiratory Disease (SARI) incidence data ranging from 2010 to 2016. We combined two techniques hierarchically: first the wavelet decomposition technique to detect annual periodicity and then circular statistics to describe seasonal measures of the periodic states. RESULTS We found significant annual periodicity in 44% of the states. For these, we calculated several seasonal measures such as the center of gravity or mean timing of activity. The relationship between the seasonal signatures and latitude was clear and statistically significant. States with seasonal signature are clustered along the coast. Most Amazonian and Central West states exhibit no seasonal behavior. Among the seasonal states, influenza starts in Northeast region, spreading southbound. CONCLUSIONS Our study advances the comprehension of influenza seasonality in tropical areas and could be used to design more effective prevention and control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra Almeida
- Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. .,Programa de Computação Científica, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
| | - Cláudia Codeço
- Programa de Computação Científica, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
| | - Paula M Luz
- Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
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Munshili Njifon HL, Monamele CG, Kengne Nde C, Vernet MA, Bouba G, Tchatchouang S, Njankouo MR, Tapondjou R, Deweerdt L, Mbacham W, Njouom R. Influence of meteorological parameters in the seasonality of influenza viruses circulating in Northern Cameroon. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2018; 13:158-165. [PMID: 30220100 PMCID: PMC6379661 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/07/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several studies have demonstrated the role of meteorological parameters in the seasonality of influenza viruses in tropical and subtropical regions, most importantly temperature, humidity, and rainfall. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to describe the influence of meteorological parameters in the seasonality of influenza viruses in Northern Cameroon, a region characterized by high temperatures. METHODS This was a retrospective study performed in Garoua Cameroon from January 2014 to December 2016. Monthly proportions of confirmed influenza cases from six sentinel sites were considered as dependent variables, whereas monthly values of mean temperature, average relative humidity, and accumulated rainfall were considered as independent variables. A vector error correction model was used to determine the relationship between influenza activity and the meteorological variables. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION Analysis showed that there was a statistically significant association between overall influenza activity and influenza A activity with respect to average relative humidity. A unit increase in humidity within a given month leads to more than 85% rise in the overall influenza and influenza A activity 2 months later. Meanwhile, none of the three meteorological variables could explain influenza B activity. This observation is essential in filling the gap of knowledge and could help in the prevention and control strategies to strengthen influenza surveillance program in Cameroon.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Gake Bouba
- Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaounde, Cameroon
| | - Serges Tchatchouang
- Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaounde, Cameroon.,University of Yaoundé 1, Yaounde, Cameroon
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The epidemiology and severity of respiratory viral infections in a tropical country: Ecuador, 2009-2016. J Infect Public Health 2018; 12:357-363. [PMID: 30573330 PMCID: PMC7102740 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2018.12.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2018] [Revised: 11/16/2018] [Accepted: 12/06/2018] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Respiratory viral infections (RVI) are a leading cause of mortality worldwide. We compared the epidemiology and severity of RVI in Ecuador during 2009-2016. METHODS Respiratory specimens collected within the national surveillance system were tested for influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and human metapneumovirus. Overall and virus-specific positive detection rate (PDR) were calculated and compared the timing of epidemics caused by the different viruses. Logistic regression models were used to compare the age distribution and risk of death across respiratory viruses. RESULTS A total of 41,172 specimens were analyzed: influenza (PDR=14.3%) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (PDR=9.5%) were the most frequently detected viruses. Influenza epidemics typically peaked in December-January and RSV epidemics in March; seasonality was less evident for the other viruses. Compared to adults, children were more frequently infected with RSV, adenovirus, parainfluenza, and influenza B, while the elderly were less frequently infected with influenza A(H1N1)p. The age-adjusted risk of death was highest for A(H1N1)p (odds ratio [OR] 1.73, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.38-2.17), and lowest for RSV (OR 0.75, 95%CI 0.57-0.98). CONCLUSIONS Whilst influenza and RSV were the most frequently detected pathogens, the risk of death differed by RVI, being highest for pandemic influenza and lowest for RSV.
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Todd S, Huong NTC, Thanh NTL, Vy NHT, Hung NT, Thao TTN, Phuong HT, van Doorn R, Hang VTT, Chau NVV, Read JM, Lalloo DG, Boni MF. Primary care influenza-like illness surveillance in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam 2013-2015. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2018; 12:623-631. [PMID: 29858879 PMCID: PMC6086852 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/11/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Year‐round transmission of influenza has been detected in Vietnam through both national surveillance and other epidemiological studies. Understanding the demographic and clinical features of influenza‐like illness (ILI) presenting to primary care in urban Vietnam is vital to understand these transmission dynamics. Methods An observational study of patients with ILI in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, was conducted between August 2013 and November 2015 in a mix of public and private primary care settings. Molecular testing for influenza A and influenza B and 12 other respiratory viruses was performed. Results A total of 1152 ILI patients were recruited. 322 and 136 subjects tested positive for influenza A and influenza B, respectively. 193 subjects tested positive for another respiratory virus; most commonly rhinovirus and parainfluenza virus 3. Influenza was detected in 81% of the 116 study weeks. Three peaks of influenza activity were detected; an H3N2 peak April‐June 2014, an influenza B peak July‐December 2014, and a mixed H3N2 and H1N1 peak March‐September 2015. Subjects recruited from private clinics were more likely to have higher income and to have reported previous influenza vaccination. Antibiotic use was common (50.3%) despite limited evidence of bacterial infection. Conclusion Influenza in southern Vietnam has complex transmission dynamics including periods of intense influenza activity of alternating types and subtypes. Broadening surveillance from hospital to the community in tropical settings is feasible and a valuable for improving our understanding of the global spread and evolution of the virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stacy Todd
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.,Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen University Hospital, Liverpool, UK.,Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Nguyen Thi Le Thanh
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Nguyen Ha Thao Vy
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Nguyen Thanh Hung
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Tran Thi Nhu Thao
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Huynh Thi Phuong
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Rogier van Doorn
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.,Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Vu Thi Ty Hang
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Nguyen Van Vinh Chau
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.,Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Jonathan M Read
- Centre for Health Informatics Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.,Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - David G Lalloo
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.,Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen University Hospital, Liverpool, UK
| | - Maciej F Boni
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.,Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
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45
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Sanou AM, Wandaogo SCM, Poda A, Tamini L, Kyere AE, Sagna T, Ouedraogo MS, Pauly M, Hübschen JM, Muller CP, Tarnagda Z, Snoeck CJ. Epidemiology and molecular characterization of influenza viruses in Burkina Faso, sub-Saharan Africa. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2018; 12:490-496. [PMID: 29350841 PMCID: PMC6005621 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/03/2018] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The importance of influenza viruses in respiratory infections in sub‐Saharan Africa has been historically overlooked, including in Burkina Faso. Objectives This study therefore aimed at evaluating the prevalence and seasonal occurrence of influenza viruses in children under 5 years old, at risk of influenza‐related complications, presenting with influenza‐like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). The study also aimed at identifying the periods with increased influenza transmission for vaccination recommendations in Burkina Faso. Methods From January 2014 to December 2015, ILI and SARI (2015 only) patients were recruited in six healthcare centers in Burkina Faso. Influenza A and B molecular detection and subtyping were performed. Clade clustering of a subset of A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) strains was deduced by performing phylogenetic analyses on hemagglutinin gene sequences. Weekly surveillance data from FluNet (2011‐2013; 2016) and this study (2014‐2015) were used to identify periods of increased influenza activity. Results Influenza A and B viruses were detected in 15.1% (112 of 743) of ILI and 6.6% (12 of 181) of SARI patients. Overall, influenza A viruses were largely predominant (81 of 124, 65.3%), with 69.1% of A(H3N2) and 30.9% of A(H1N1)pdm09 strains. Four waves of increased transmission were identified in 2014‐2015, each dominated by different influenza subtypes and clades. Between 2011 and 2016, periods of increased influenza activity varied in their frequency, duration, and timing. Conclusion Influenza A and B viruses were detected in a substantial number of ILI and SARI cases in Burkina Faso. Vaccination in September‐October would likely protect the highest number of patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Armel M Sanou
- National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
| | - Sampoko Carine M Wandaogo
- National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
| | - Armel Poda
- Hôpital du jour, Service des maladies infectieuses, CHU Souro Sanou, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso.,Université Polytechnique de Bobo-Dioulasso (UPB), Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
| | - Laure Tamini
- Service de Pédiatrie, CHU Pédiatrique Charles De Gaulles, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.,Unité de Formation et de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé (UFR/SDS), Université de Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Anselme E Kyere
- National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
| | - Tani Sagna
- National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
| | - Macaire S Ouedraogo
- Hôpital du jour, Service des maladies infectieuses, CHU Souro Sanou, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso.,Université Polytechnique de Bobo-Dioulasso (UPB), Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
| | - Maude Pauly
- Infectious Diseases Research Unit, Department of Infection and Immunity, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
| | - Judith M Hübschen
- Infectious Diseases Research Unit, Department of Infection and Immunity, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
| | - Claude P Muller
- Infectious Diseases Research Unit, Department of Infection and Immunity, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
| | - Zekiba Tarnagda
- National Influenza Reference Laboratory, Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
| | - Chantal J Snoeck
- Infectious Diseases Research Unit, Department of Infection and Immunity, Luxembourg Institute of Health, Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg
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Zheng X, Song Z, Li Y, Zhang J, Wang XL. Possible interference between seasonal epidemics of influenza and other respiratory viruses in Hong Kong, 2014-2017. BMC Infect Dis 2017; 17:772. [PMID: 29246199 PMCID: PMC5732536 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2888-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2017] [Accepted: 12/06/2017] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Unlike influenza viruses, little is known about the prevalence and seasonality of other respiratory viruses because laboratory surveillance for non-influenza respiratory viruses is not well developed or supported in China and other resource-limited countries. We studied the interference between seasonal epidemics of influenza viruses and five other common viruses that cause respiratory illnesses in Hong Kong from 2014 to 2017. Methods The weekly laboratory-confirmed positive rates of each virus were analyzed from 2014 to 2017 in Hong Kong to describe the epidemiological trends and interference between influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus (PIV), adenovirus, enterovirus and rhinovirus. A sinusoidal model was established to estimate the peak timing of each virus by phase angle parameters. Results Seasonal features of the influenza viruses, PIV, enterovirus and adenovirus were obvious, whereas annual peaks of RSV and rhinovirus were not observed. The incidence of the influenza viruses usually peaked in February and July, and the summer peaks in July were generally caused by the H3 subtype of influenza A alone. When influenza viruses were active, other viruses tended to have a low level of activity. The peaks of the influenza viruses were not synchronized. An epidemic of rhinovirus tended to shift the subsequent epidemics of the other viruses. Conclusion The evidence from recent surveillance data in Hong Kong suggests that viral interference during the epidemics of influenza viruses and other common respiratory viruses might affect the timing and duration of subsequent epidemics of a certain or several viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xueying Zheng
- Department of Biostatistics and Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhengyu Song
- Department of Biostatistics and Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yapeng Li
- Department of Biostatistics and Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Juanjuan Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics and Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xi-Ling Wang
- Department of Biostatistics and Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. .,Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. .,Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, China.
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Ortiz JR, Hickling J, Jones R, Donabedian A, Engelhardt OG, Katz JM, Madhi SA, Neuzil KM, Rimmelzwaan GF, Southern J, Spiro DJ, Hombach J. Report on eighth WHO meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses: Chicago, USA, 23-24 August 2016. Vaccine 2017; 36:932-938. [PMID: 29221895 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.11.061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2017] [Accepted: 11/17/2017] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
In August 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened the "Eighth meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses" to discuss the regulatory requirements and pathways for licensure of next-generation influenza vaccines, and to identify areas where WHO can promote the development of such vaccines. Participants included approximately 120 representatives of academia, the vaccine industry, research and development funders, and regulatory and public health agencies. They reviewed the draft WHO preferred product characteristics (PPCs) of vaccines that could address prioritized unmet public health needs and discussed the challenges facing the development of such vaccines, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). They defined the data desired by public-health decision makers globally and explored how to support the progression of promising candidates into late-stage clinical trials and for all countries. This report highlights the major discussions of the meeting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin R Ortiz
- Initiative for Vaccine Research, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland.
| | - Julian Hickling
- Working in Tandem Ltd, Cambridge, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom.
| | - Rebecca Jones
- Working in Tandem Ltd, Cambridge, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom.
| | - Armen Donabedian
- Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, United States Department of Health and Human Services, Washington DC, United States.
| | - Othmar G Engelhardt
- Division of Virology, National Institute for Biological Standards and Control, A Centre of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, Potters Bar, Hertfordshire, United Kingdom.
| | - Jacqueline M Katz
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, United States.
| | - Shabir A Madhi
- Medical Research Council: Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, United States.
| | - Guus F Rimmelzwaan
- Erasmus Medical Center, Department of Viroscience, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - James Southern
- Advisor to Medicines Control Council, Simon's Town, South Africa.
| | - David J Spiro
- National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States.
| | - Joachim Hombach
- Initiative for Vaccine Research, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland.
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Monamele GC, Vernet MA, Nsaibirni RFJ, Bigna JJR, Kenmoe S, Njankouo MR, Njouom R. Associations between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in a subtropical country: Case of five sentinel sites in Yaoundé-Cameroon. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0186914. [PMID: 29088290 PMCID: PMC5663393 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0186914] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2017] [Accepted: 10/10/2017] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Influenza is associated with highly contagious respiratory infections. Previous research has found that influenza transmission is often associated with climate variables especially in temperate regions. This study was performed in order to fill the gap of knowledge regarding the relationship between incidence of influenza and three meteorological parameters (temperature, rainfall and humidity) in a tropical setting. This was a retrospective study performed in Yaoundé-Cameroon from January 2009 to November 2015. Weekly proportions of confirmed influenza cases from five sentinel sites were considered as dependent variables, whereas weekly values of mean temperature, average relative humidity and accumulated rainfall were considered as independent variables. A univariate linear regression model was used in determining associations between influenza activity and weather covariates. A time-series method was used to predict on future values of influenza activity. The data was divided into 2 parts; the first 71 months were used to calibrate the model, and the last 12 months to test for prediction. Overall, there were 1173 confirmed infections with influenza virus. Linear regression analysis showed that there was no statistically significant association observed between influenza activity and weather variables. Very weak relationships (-0.1 < r < 0.1) were observed. Three prediction models were obtained for the different viral types (overall positive, Influenza A and Influenza B). Model 1 (overall influenza) and model 2 (influenza A) fitted well during the estimation period; however, they did not succeed to make good forecasts for predictions. Accumulated rainfall was the only external covariate that enabled good fit of both models. Based on the stationary R2, 29.5% and 41.1% of the variation in the series can be explained by model 1 and 2, respectively. This study laid more emphasis on the fact that influenza in Cameroon is characterized by year-round activity. The meteorological variables selected in this study did not enable good forecast of future influenza activity and certainly acted as proxies to other factors not considered, such as, UV radiation, absolute humidity, air quality and wind.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gwladys C. Monamele
- National Influenza Centre, Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- Department of Microbiology and Parasitology, University of Buea, Buea, Cameroon
| | | | | | - Jean Joel R. Bigna
- National Influenza Centre, Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | - Sebastien Kenmoe
- National Influenza Centre, Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | | | - Richard Njouom
- National Influenza Centre, Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- * E-mail:
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Ayora-Talavera G, Flores GMZ, Gómez-Carballo J, González-Losa R, Conde-Ferraez L, Puerto-Solís M, López-Martínez I, Díaz-Quiñonez A, Barrera-Badillo G, Acuna-Soto R, Livinski AA, Alonso WJ. Influenza seasonality goes south in the Yucatan Peninsula: The case for a different influenza vaccine calendar in this Mexican region. Vaccine 2017; 35:4738-4744. [PMID: 28755836 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.07.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2016] [Revised: 06/22/2017] [Accepted: 07/05/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign. OBJECTIVE To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness. METHODS We studied the seasonality of influenza throughoutMexico by modeling virological and mortality data.De-trended time series of each Mexican state were analyzed by Fourier decomposition to describe the amplitude and timing of annual influenza epidemic cycles and to compare with each the timing of the WHO's Northern and Southern Hemispheric vaccination schedule. FINDINGS The timings of the primary (major) peaks of both virological and mortality data for most Mexican states are well aligned with the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) and vaccine schedule. However, influenza peaks in September in the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. Influenza-related mortality also peaks in September in Quintana Roo and Yucatan whereas it peaks in May in Campeche. As the current timing of vaccination in Mexico is between October and November, more than half of the annual influenza cases have already occurred in the Yucatan Peninsula states by the time the Northern Hemispheric vaccine is delivered and administered. CONCLUSION The current Northern Hemispheric influenza calendar adopted for Mexico is not optimal for the Yucatan Peninsula states thereby likely reducing the effectiveness of the immunization of the population. We recommend that Mexico tailor its immunization strategy to better reflect its climatologic and epidemiological diversity and adopt the WHO Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine and schedule for the Yucatan Peninsula.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guadalupe Ayora-Talavera
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.
| | - Gerardo Montalvo-Zurbia Flores
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.
| | - Jesus Gómez-Carballo
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.
| | - Refugio González-Losa
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.
| | - Laura Conde-Ferraez
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.
| | - Marylin Puerto-Solís
- Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Av. Itzaes #490x59, Centro, C. P. 97000 Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.
| | - Irma López-Martínez
- Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos "Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez" (InDRE), Secretaría de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda 177, Lomas de Plateros, 01480 Álvaro Obregón, Mexico City, Mexico.
| | - Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez
- Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos "Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez" (InDRE), Secretaría de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda 177, Lomas de Plateros, 01480 Álvaro Obregón, Mexico City, Mexico.
| | - Gisela Barrera-Badillo
- Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos "Dr. Manuel Martínez Báez" (InDRE), Secretaría de Salud, Francisco de P. Miranda 177, Lomas de Plateros, 01480 Álvaro Obregón, Mexico City, Mexico.
| | - Rodolfo Acuna-Soto
- Departamento de Microbiologia y Parasitologia, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, Avenida Insurgentes Sur 3000, Del. Coyoacán, C.P. 04510 Ciudad de México, Mexico.
| | - Alicia A Livinski
- National Institute of Health Library, Division of Library Services, Office of Research Services, 10 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
| | - Wladimir J Alonso
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 16 Center Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
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Shapiro D, Bodinayake CK, Nagahawatte A, Devasiri V, Kurukulasooriya R, Hsiang J, Nicholson B, De Silva AD, Østbye T, Reller ME, Woods CW, Tillekeratne LG. Burden and Seasonality of Viral Acute Respiratory Tract Infections among Outpatients in Southern Sri Lanka. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2017; 97:88-96. [PMID: 28719323 PMCID: PMC5508919 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.17-0032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2017] [Accepted: 03/08/2017] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
In tropical and subtropical settings, the epidemiology of viral acute respiratory tract infections varies widely between countries. We determined the etiology, seasonality, and clinical presentation of viral acute respiratory tract infections among outpatients in southern Sri Lanka. From March 2013 to January 2015, we enrolled outpatients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI). Nasal/nasopharyngeal samples were tested in duplicate using antigen-based rapid influenza testing and multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for respiratory viruses. Monthly proportion positive was calculated for each virus. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify associations between sociodemographic/clinical information and viral detection. Of 571 subjects, most (470, 82.3%) were ≥ 5 years of age and 53.1% were male. A respiratory virus was detected by PCR in 63.6% (N = 363). Common viral etiologies included influenza (223, 39%), human enterovirus/rhinovirus (HEV/HRV, 14.5%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 4.2%), and human metapneumovirus (hMPV, 3.9%). Both ILI and influenza showed clear seasonal variation, with peaks from March to June each year. RSV and hMPV activity peaked from May to July, whereas HEV/HRV was seen year-round. Patients with respiratory viruses detected were more likely to report pain with breathing (odds ratio [OR] = 2.60, P = 0.003), anorexia (OR = 2.29, P < 0.001), and fatigue (OR = 2.00, P = 0.002) compared with patients with no respiratory viruses detected. ILI showed clear seasonal variation in southern Sri Lanka, with most activity during March to June; peak activity was largely due to influenza. Targeted infection prevention activities such as influenza vaccination in January-February may have a large public health impact in this region.
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Affiliation(s)
- David Shapiro
- Department of Pediatrics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | | | - Ajith Nagahawatte
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ruhuna University, Galle, Sri Lanka
| | - Vasantha Devasiri
- Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Ruhuna University, Galle, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Jeremy Hsiang
- Durham Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina
| | | | | | - Truls Østbye
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Megan E. Reller
- Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Christopher W. Woods
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
| | - L. Gayani Tillekeratne
- Duke Global Health Institute, Durham, North Carolina
- Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
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