Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

Mapping Ixodes pacificus and Borrelia burgdorferi Habitat Suitability Under Current and Mid-Century Climate in the Pacific Northwest (BC and WA)

Introduction: Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States and Canada. The primary vector for the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, in the Pacific Northwest is the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus. Materials and Methods: Using active tick surveillance data from British Columbia, Canada, and Washington State, USA, habitat suitability models using MaxEnt (maximum entropy) were developed for I. pacificus to predict its current and mid-century geographic distributions. Passive surveillance data both from BC and WA were also visualized. Results: According to the constructed models, the number of frost-free days during the winter is the most relevant predictor of its habitat suitability, followed by summer climate moisture, ecoregion, and mean minimum fall temperature. The ensemble geographic distribution map predicts that the coastal regions and inland valleys of British Columbia and the Puget Lowlands of Washington State provide the most suitable habitats for I. pacificus. The density map of ticks submitted from passive surveillance data was overlaid on the current distribution map and demonstrates the correlation between numbers of submissions and habitat suitability. Mid-century projections, based on current climate change predictions, indicate a range expansion, especially of low and moderate suitability, from current distribution. Regarding Lyme disease risk, I. pacificus identified from both active and passive surveillance and tested positive for B. burgdorferi were found to be in areas of moderate to very high suitability for I. pacificus. Conclusion: According to developed models, the total suitable habitat area for I. pacificus will expand in the interior regions of British Columbia and Washington State. However, the risk remains small given relatively low infection rates among I. pacificus. Further studies are required to better understand how this might change in the future.

Influence of microclimate and forest management on bat species faced with global change

Climate refugia, areas where climate is expected to remain relatively stable, can offer a near-term safe haven for species sensitive to warming temperatures and drought. Understanding the influence of temperature, moisture, and disturbance on sensitive species is critical during this time of rapid climate change. Coastal habitats can serve as important refugia. Many of these areas consist of working forestlands, and there is a growing recognition that conservation efforts worldwide must consider the habitat value of working lands, in addition to protected areas, to effectively manage large landscapes that support biodiversity. The sensitivity of forest bats to climate and habitat disturbance makes them a useful indicator taxon. We tested how microclimate and forest management influence habitat use for 13 species of insectivorous bats in a large climate refugium in a global biodiversity hotspot. We examined whether bat activity during the summer dry season is greater in forests where coastal fog provides moisture and more stable temperatures across both protected mature stands and those regularly logged. Acoustic monitoring was conducted at a landscape scale with 20 study sites, and generalized linear mixed models were used to examine the influence of habitat variables. Six species were positively associated with warmer nighttime temperature, and 5 species had a negative relationship with humidity or a positive relationship with climatic moisture deficit. Our results suggest that these mammals may have greater climate adaptive capacity than expected, and, for now, that habitat use may be more related to optimal foraging conditions than to avoidance of warming temperatures and drought. We also determined that 12 of the 13 regionally present bat species were regularly detected in commercial timberland stands. Because forest bats are highly mobile, forage over long distances, and frequently change roosts, the stewardship of working forests must be addressed to protect these species.

A genome-guided strategy for climate resilience in American chestnut restoration populations

American chestnut (Castanea dentata) is a deciduous tree species of eastern North America that was decimated by the introduction of the chestnut blight fungus (Cryphonectria parasitica) in the early 20th century. Although millions of American chestnuts survive as root collar sprouts, these trees rarely reproduce. Thus, the species is considered functionally extinct. American chestnuts with improved blight resistance have been developed through interspecific hybridization followed by conspecific backcrossing, and by genetic engineering. Incorporating adaptive genomic diversity into these backcross families and transgenic lines is important for restoring the species across broad climatic gradients. To develop sampling recommendations for ex situ conservation of wild adaptive genetic variation, we coupled whole-genome resequencing of 384 stump sprouts with genotype-environment association analyses and found that the species range can be subdivided into three seed zones characterized by relatively homogeneous adaptive allele frequencies. We estimated that 21 to 29 trees per seed zone will need to be conserved to capture most extant adaptive diversity. We also resequenced the genomes of 269 backcross trees to understand the extent to which the breeding program has already captured wild adaptive diversity, and to estimate optimal reintroduction sites for specific families on the basis of their adaptive portfolio and future climate projections. Taken together, these results inform the development of an ex situ germplasm conservation and breeding plan to target blight-resistant breeding populations to specific environments and provides a blueprint for developing restoration plans for other imperiled tree species.

Genomic insights into hybrid zone formation: The role of climate, landscape, and demography in the emergence of a novel hybrid lineage

Population demographic changes, alongside landscape, geographic and climate heterogeneity, can influence the timing, stability and extent of introgression where species hybridise. Thus, quantifying interactions across diverged lineages, and the relative contributions of interspecific genetic exchange and selection to divergence at the genome-wide level is needed to better understand the drivers of hybrid zone formation and maintenance. We used seven latitudinally arrayed transects to quantify the contributions of climate, geography and landscape features to broad patterns of genetic structure across the hybrid zone of Populus trichocarpa and P. balsamifera and evaluated the demographic context of hybridisation over time. We found genetic structure differed among the seven transects. While ancestry was structured by climate, landscape features influenced gene flow dynamics. Demographic models indicated a secondary contact event may have influenced contemporary hybrid zone formation with the origin of a putative hybrid lineage that inhabits regions with higher aridity than either of the ancestral groups. Phylogenetic relationships based on chloroplast genomes support the origin of this hybrid lineage inferred from demographic models based on the nuclear data. Our results point towards the importance of climate and landscape patterns in structuring the contact zones between P. trichocarpa and P. balsamifera and emphasise the value whole genome sequencing can have to advancing our understanding of how neutral processes influence divergence across space and time.

Disentangling linkages between satellite-derived indicators of forest structure and productivity for ecosystem monitoring

The essential biodiversity variables (EBV) framework has been proposed as a monitoring system of standardized, comparable variables that represents a minimum set of biological information to monitor biodiversity change at large spatial extents. Six classes of EBVs (genetic composition, species populations, species traits, community composition, ecosystem structure and ecosystem function) are defined, a number of which are ideally suited to observation and monitoring by remote sensing systems. We used moderate-resolution remotely sensed indicators representing two ecosystem-level EBV classes (ecosystem structure and function) to assess their complementarity and redundancy across a range of ecosystems encompassing significant environmental gradients. Redundancy analyses found that remote sensing indicators of forest structure were not strongly related to indicators of ecosystem productivity (represented by the Dynamic Habitat Indices; DHIs), with the structural information only explaining 15.7% of the variation in the DHIs. Complex metrics of forest structure, such as aboveground biomass, did not contribute additional information over simpler height-based attributes that can be directly estimated with light detection and ranging (LIDAR) observations. With respect to ecosystem conditions, we found that forest types and ecosystems dominated by coniferous trees had less redundancy between the remote sensing indicators when compared to broadleaf or mixed forest types. Likewise, higher productivity environments exhibited the least redundancy between indicators, in contrast to more environmentally stressed regions. We suggest that biodiversity researchers continue to exploit multiple dimensions of remote sensing data given the complementary information they provide on structure and function focused EBVs, which makes them jointly suitable for monitoring forest ecosystems.

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, "normal" stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don't meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Identifying potential provenances for climate-change adaptation using spatially variable coefficient models

BACKGROUND

Selection of climate-change adapted ecotypes of commercially valuable species to date relies on DNA-assisted screening followed by growth trials. For trees, such trials can take decades, hence any approach that supports focussing on a likely set of candidates may save time and money. We use a non-stationary statistical analysis with spatially varying coefficients to identify ecotypes that indicate first regions of similarly adapted varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) in North America. For over 70,000 plot-level presence-absences, spatial differences in the survival response to climatic conditions are identified.

RESULTS

The spatially-variable coefficient model fits the data substantially better than a stationary, i.e. constant-effect analysis (as measured by AIC to account for differences in model complexity). Also, clustering the model terms identifies several potential ecotypes that could not be derived from clustering climatic conditions itself. Comparing these six identified ecotypes to known genetically diverging regions shows some congruence, as well as some mismatches. However, comparing ecotypes among each other, we find clear differences in their climate niches.

CONCLUSION

While our approach is data-demanding and computationally expensive, with the increasing availability of data on species distributions this may be a useful first screening step during the search for climate-change adapted varieties. With our unsupervised learning approach being explorative, finely resolved genotypic data would be helpful to improve its quantitative validation.

White-nose syndrome, winter duration, and pre-hibernation climate impact abundance of reproductive female bats

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an infectious disease that disrupts hibernation in bats, leading to premature exhaustion of fat stores. Though we know WNS does impact reproduction in hibernating female bats, we are unsure how these impacts are exacerbated by local climate factors. We compiled data from four southeastern U.S. states and used generalized linear mixed effects models to compare effects of WNS, pre-hibernation climate variables, and winter duration on the number of reproductive females in species across the range of WNS susceptibility. We predicted we would see a decline in the number of reproductive females in WNS-susceptible species, with the effect exaggerated by longer winter durations and pre-hibernation climate variables that lead to reductions in foraging. We found that the number of reproductive females in WNS-susceptible species was positively correlated with pre-hibernation local climate conditions conducive to foraging; however, WNS-susceptible species experienced an overall decline with the presence of WNS and as winter duration increased. Our long-term dataset provides evidence that pre-hibernation climate, specifically favorable summer weather conditions for foraging, greatly influences the reproduction, regardless of WNS status.

Putative climate adaptation in American pikas (Ochotona princeps) is associated with copy number variation across environmental gradients

Improved understanding of the genetic basis of adaptation to climate change is necessary for maintaining global biodiversity moving forward. Studies to date have largely focused on sequence variation, yet there is growing evidence that suggests that changes in genome structure may be an even more significant source of adaptive potential. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is an alpine specialist that shows some evidence of adaptation to climate along elevational gradients, but previous work has been limited to single nucleotide polymorphism based analyses within a fraction of the species range. Here, we investigated the role of copy number variation underlying patterns of local adaptation in the American pika using genome-wide data previously collected across the entire species range. We identified 37-193 putative copy number variants (CNVs) associated with environmental variation (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation) within each of the six major American pika lineages, with patterns of divergence largely following elevational and latitudinal gradients. Genes associated (n = 158) with independent annotations across lineages, variables, and/or CNVs had functions related to mitochondrial structure/function, immune response, hypoxia, olfaction, and DNA repair. Some of these genes have been previously linked to putative high elevation and/or climate adaptation in other species, suggesting they may serve as important targets in future studies.

Hydrology Predominates Over Harvest History and Landscape Variation to Control Water Quality and Disinfection Byproduct Formation Potentials in Forested Pacific Coast Watersheds

Despite the global importance of forested watersheds as sources of drinking water, few studies have examined the effects of forestry on drinking water treatability. Relatively little is known about how the interaction between landscape variation and flow impacts source water quality and what this interaction means for drinking water treatability. To address this knowledge gap, we examined variability in sediments, dissolved organic matter, and disinfection byproduct formation potentials (DBP-FPs) across a range of flow conditions in four small watersheds with contrasting forest harvest histories and soil characteristics on Vancouver Island. Storm event-driven change in streamflow was the primary driver of water quality and DBP-FPs at our sites, with greater changes during stormflow (e.g., a 3-fold increase in dissolved organic carbon concentrations) than those across contrasting watersheds. Flow-driven changes in water quality and DBP-FPs were not significantly different across watersheds with different harvest histories; muted responses may be attributed to widespread second growth forests (i.e., recent harvesting effects may be confounded by historical harvest), forestry practices (e.g., slash burning), or soils with low organic carbon storage. This study suggests that variation in hydrology predominates over harvest history and soil characteristics to drive water quality and DBP-FPs on the east coast of Vancouver Island.

How useful are genomic data for predicting maladaptation to future climate?

Methods using genomic information to forecast potential population maladaptation to climate change or new environments are becoming increasingly common, yet the lack of model validation poses serious hurdles toward their incorporation into management and policy. Here, we compare the validation of maladaptation estimates derived from two methods-Gradient Forests (GFoffset) and the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA)-using exome capture pool-seq data from 35 to 39 populations across three conifer taxa: two Douglas-fir varieties and jack pine. We evaluate sensitivity of these algorithms to the source of input loci (markers selected from genotype-environment associations [GEA] or those selected at random). We validate these methods against 2- and 52-year growth and mortality measured in independent transplant experiments. Overall, we find that both methods often better predict transplant performance than climatic or geographic distances. We also find that GFoffset and RONA models are surprisingly not improved using GEA candidates. Even with promising validation results, variation in model projections to future climates makes it difficult to identify the most maladapted populations using either method. Our work advances understanding of the sensitivity and applicability of these approaches, and we discuss recommendations for their future use.

Heat and desiccation tolerances predict bee abundance under climate change

Climate change could pose an urgent threat to pollinators, with critical ecological and economic consequences. However, for most insect pollinator species, we lack the long-term data and mechanistic evidence that are necessary to identify climate-driven declines and predict future trends. Here we document 16 years of abundance patterns for a hyper-diverse bee assemblage1 in a warming and drying region2, link bee declines with experimentally determined heat and desiccation tolerances, and use climate sensitivity models to project bee communities into the future. Aridity strongly predicted bee abundance for 71% of 665 bee populations (species × ecosystem combinations). Bee taxa that best tolerated heat and desiccation increased the most over time. Models forecasted declines for 46% of species and predicted more homogeneous communities dominated by drought-tolerant taxa, even while total bee abundance may remain unchanged. Such community reordering could reduce pollination services, because diverse bee assemblages typically maximize pollination for plant communities3. Larger-bodied bees also dominated under intermediate to high aridity, identifying body size as a valuable trait for understanding how climate-driven shifts in bee communities influence pollination4. We provide evidence that climate change directly threatens bee diversity, indicating that bee conservation efforts should account for the stress of aridity on bee physiology.

Climate and habitat type interact to influence contemporary dispersal potential in Prairie Smoke (Geum triflorum)

Understanding dispersal potential, or the probability a species will move a given distance, under different environmental conditions is essential to predicting species' ability to move across the landscape and track shifting ecological niches. Two important drivers of dispersal ability are climatic differences and variations in local habitat type. Despite the likelihood these global drivers act simultaneously on plant populations, and thus dispersal potential is likely to change as a result, their combined effects on dispersal are rarely examined. To understand the effect of climate and varying habitat types on dispersal potential, we studied Geum triflorum-a perennial grassland species that spans a wide range of environments, including both prairie and alvar habitats. We explored how the climate of the growing season and habitat type (prairie vs. alvar) interact to alter dispersal potential. We found a consistent interactive effect of climate and habitat type on dispersal potential. Across prairie populations, an increased number of growing degree days favored traits that increase dispersal potential or the probability of dispersing farther distances. However, for alvar populations, dispersal potential tended to decrease as the number of growing degree days increased. Our findings suggest that under continued warming, populations in prairie habitats will benefit from increased gene flow, while alvar populations will become increasingly segregated, with reduced potential to track shifting fitness optima.

The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in cities

Human experiences with nature are important for our culture, economy, and health. Anthropogenically-driven climate change is causing widespread shifts in biodiversity and resident urban wildlife are no exception. We modelled over 2,000 animal species to predict how climate change will impact terrestrial wildlife within 60 Canadian and American cities. We found evidence of an impending great urban shift where thousands of species will disappear across the selected cities, being replaced by new species, or not replaced at all. Effects were largely species-specific, with the most negatively impacted taxa being amphibians, canines, and loons. These predicted shifts were consistent across scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, but our results show that the severity of change will be defined by our action or inaction to mitigate climate change. An impending massive shift in urban wildlife will impact the cultural experiences of human residents, the delivery of ecosystem services, and our relationship with nature.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

One hundred and six years of change in a Sonoran Desert plant community: Impact of climate anomalies and trends in species sensitivities

A major restriction in predicting plant community response to future climate change is a lack of long-term data needed to properly assess species and community response to climate and identify a baseline to detect climate anomalies. Here, we use a 106-year dataset on a Sonoran Desert plant community to test the role of extreme temperature and precipitation anomalies on community dynamics at the decadal scale and over time. Additionally, we tested the climate sensitivity of 39 desert plant species and whether sensitivity was associated with growth form, longevity, geographic range, or local dominance. We found that desert plant communities had shifted directionally over the 106 years, but the climate had little influence on this directional change primarily due to nonlinear shifts in precipitation anomalies. Decadal-scale climate had the largest impact on species richness, species relative density, and total plant cover, explaining up to 26%, 45%, and 55% of the variance in each, respectively. Drought and the interaction between the frequency of freeze events and above-average summer precipitation were among the most influential climate factors. Increased drought frequency and wetter periods with frequent freeze events led to larger reductions in total plant cover, species richness, and the relative densities of dominant subshrubs Ambrosia deltoidea and Encelia farinosa. More than 80% of the tested species were sensitive to climate, but sensitivity was not associated with a species' local dominance, longevity, geographic range, or growth form. Some species appear to exhibit demographic buffering, where when they have a higher sensitivity to drought, they also tend to have a higher sensitivity to favorable (i.e., wetter and hotter) conditions. Overall, our results suggest that, while decadal-scale climate variation substantially impacts these desert plant communities, directional change in temperature over the last century has had little impact due to the relative importance of precipitation and drought. With projections of increased drought in this region, we may see reductions in total vegetation cover and species richness due to the loss of species, possibly through a breakdown in their ability to demographically buffer climatic variation, potentially changing community dynamics through a change in facilitative and competitive processes.

The WZA: A window-based method for characterizing genotype-environment associations

Genotype-environment association (GEA) studies have the potential to identify the genetic basis of local adaptation in natural populations. Specifically, GEA approaches look for a correlation between allele frequencies and putatively selective features of the environment. Genetic markers with extreme evidence of correlation with the environment are presumed to be tagging the location of alleles that contribute to local adaptation. In this study, we propose a new method for GEA studies called the Weighted-Z Analysis (WZA) that combines information from closely linked sites into analysis windows in a way that was inspired by methods for calculating FST . Performing GEA methods in analysis windows has the advantage that it takes advantage of the increased linkage disequilibrium expected surrounding sites subject to local adaptation. We analyse simulations modelling local adaptation to heterogeneous environments to compare the WZA with existing methods. In the majority of cases we tested, the WZA either outperformed single-SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism)-based approaches or performed similarly. In particular, the WZA outperformed individual SNP approaches when a small number of individuals or demes were sampled. Particularly troubling, we found that some GEA methods exhibit very high false positive rates. We applied the WZA to previously published data from lodgepole pine and identified candidate loci that were identified in the original study alongside numerous loci that were not found in the original study.

Soil properties constrain predicted poleward migration of plants under climate change

Many plant species are predicted to migrate poleward in response to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to quantify future suitable habitats, but they often neglect soil properties, despite the importance of soil for plant fitness. As soil properties often change along latitudinal gradients, higher-latitude soils might be more or less suitable than average conditions within the current ranges of species, thereby accelerating or slowing potential poleward migration. In this study, we built three SDMs - one with only climate predictors, one with only soil predictors, and one with both - for each of 1870 plant species in Eastern North America, in order to investigate the relative importance of soil properties in determining plant distributions and poleward shifts under climate change. While climate variables were the most important predictors, soil properties also had a substantial influence on continental-scale plant distributions. Under future climate scenarios, models including soil predicted much smaller northward shifts in distributions than climate-only models (c. 40% reduction). Our findings strongly suggest that high-latitude soils are likely to impede ongoing plant migration, and they highlight the necessity of incorporating soil properties into models and predictions for plant distributions and migration under environmental change.

Chasing the fitness optimum: temporal variation in the genetic and environmental expression of life-history traits for a perennial plant

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The ability of plants to track shifting fitness optima is crucial within the context of global change, where increasing environmental extremes may have dramatic consequences for life history, fitness, and ultimately population persistence. However, tracking changing conditions relies on the relationship between genetic and environmental variance, where selection may favour plasticity, the evolution of genetic differences, or both depending on the spatial and temporal scale of environmental heterogeneity.

METHODS

Over three years, we compared the genetic and environmental components of phenological and life-history variation in a common environment for the spring perennial Geum triflorum. Populations were sourced from alvar habitats that exhibit extreme but predictable annual flood-desiccation cycles and prairie habitats that exhibit similar but less predictable variation in water availability.

KEY RESULTS

Heritability was generally higher for early life-history (emergence probability) relative to later life-history traits (total seed mass), indicating that traits associated with establishment are under stronger genetic control relative to later life-history fitness expressions, where plasticity may play a larger role. This pattern was particularly notable in seeds sourced from environmentally extreme but predictable alvar habitats relative to less predictable prairie environments. Fitness landscapes based on seed source origin, largely characterized by varying water availability and flower production, described selection as the degree of maladaptation of seed source environment relative to the prairie common garden environment. Plants from alvar populations were consistently closer to the fitness optimum across all years. Annually, the breadth of the fitness optimum expanded primarily along a moisture gradient, with inclusion of more populations onto the expanding optimum.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the importance of temporally and spatially varying selection in life-history evolution, indicating plasticity may become a primary mechanism needed to track fitness for later life-history events within perennial systems.

Tree-ring δ15N as an indicator of nitrogen dynamics in stands with N2-fixing Alnus rubra

Tree-ring δ15N may depict site-specific, long-term patterns in nitrogen (N) dynamics under N2-fixing species, but field trials with N2-fixing tree species are lacking and the relationship of temporal patterns in tree-ring δ15N to soil N dynamics is controversial. We examined whether the tree-ring δ15N of N2-fixing red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) would mirror N accretion rates and δ15N of soils and whether the influence of alder-fixed N could be observed in the wood of a neighboring conifer. We sampled a 27-year-old replacement series trial on south-eastern Vancouver Island, with red alder and coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) planted in five proportions (0/100, 11/89, 25/75, 50/50 and 100/0) at a uniform stem density. An escalation in forest floor N content was evident with an increasing proportion of red alder, equivalent to a difference of ~750 kg N ha-1 between 100% Douglas-fir versus 100% alder. The forest floor horizon also had high δ15N values in treatments with more red alder. Red alder had a consistent quadratic fit in tree-ring δ15N over time, with a net increase of $\sim$1.5‰, on average, from initial values, followed by a plateau or slight decline. Douglas-fir tree-ring δ15N, in contrast, was largely unchanged over time (in three of four plots) but was significantly higher in the 50/50 mix. The minor differences in current leaf litter N content and δ15N between alder and Douglas-fir, coupled with declining growth in red alder, suggests the plateau or declining trend in alder tree-ring δ15N could coincide with lower N2-fixation rates, potentially by loss in alder vigor at canopy closure, or down-regulation via nitrate availability.

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA

PREMISE

Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures.

METHODS

We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass.

CONCLUSIONS

Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

Resurrected seeds from herbarium specimens reveal rapid evolution of drought resistance in a selfing annual

PREMISE

Increased aridity and drought associated with climate change are exerting unprecedented selection pressures on plant populations. Whether populations can rapidly adapt, and which life history traits might confer increased fitness under drought, remain outstanding questions.

METHODS

We utilized a resurrection ecology approach, leveraging dormant seeds from herbarium collections to assess whether populations of Plantago patagonica from the semi-arid Colorado Plateau have rapidly evolved in response to approximately ten years of intense drought in the region. We quantified multiple traits associated with drought escape and drought resistance and assessed the survival of ancestors and descendants under simulated drought.

RESULTS

Descendant populations displayed a significant shift in resource allocation, in which they invested less in reproductive tissues and relatively more in both above- and below-ground vegetative tissues. Plants with greater leaf biomass survived longer under terminal drought; moreover, even after accounting for the effect of increased leaf biomass, descendant seedlings survived drought longer than their ancestors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results document rapid adaptive evolution in response to climate change in a selfing annual and suggest that shifts in tissue allocation strategies may underlie adaptive responses to drought in arid or semi-arid environments. This work also illustrates a novel approach, documenting that under specific circumstances, seeds from herbarium specimens may provide an untapped source of dormant propagules for future resurrection experiments.

Sex-dependent phenological responses to climate vary across species' ranges

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered the flowering times (i.e., phenology) of plants worldwide, affecting their reproduction, survival, and interactions. Recent studies utilizing herbarium specimens have uncovered significant intra- and inter-specific variation in flowering phenology and its response to changes in climate but have mostly been limited to animal-pollinated species. Thus, despite their economic and ecological importance, variation in phenological responses to climate remain largely unexplored among and within wind-pollinated dioecious species and across their sexes. Using both herbarium specimens and volunteer observations of cottonwood (Populus) species, we examined how phenological sensitivity to climate varies across species, their ranges, sexes, and phenophases. The timing of flowering varied significantly across and within species, as did their sensitivity to spring temperature. In particular, male flowering generally happened earlier in the season and was more sensitive to warming than female flowering. Further, the onset of flowering was more sensitive to changes in temperature than leaf out. Increased temporal gaps between male and female flowering time and between the first open flower date and leaf out date were predicted for the future under two climate change scenarios. These shifts will impact the efficacy of sexual reproduction and gene flow among species. Our study demonstrates significant inter- and intra-specific variation in phenology and its responses to environmental cues, across species' ranges, phenophases, and sex, in wind-pollinated species. These variations need to be considered to predict accurately the effects of climate change and assess their ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Projecting the impacts of climate change on the wind erosion potential using an ensemble of GCMs in Hormozgan Coastal plains, Iran

Wind erosion is one of the most critical problems in arid and semi-arid regions. The wind transports only dry soil, and no soil with a wet surface can be moved. The study aimed to investigate the changes in wind erosion potential in the coastal plains of Hormozgan province, Iran. Data from four synoptic stations from 1988 to 2017, as well as outputs from four climate models, namely HadGEM-2-CC, CSIRO-MK3- 6-0, ACCESS1-3 and CNRM-CM5, based on two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used for the analysis. The outputs of climate models were ensembled and downscaled using the Change Factor statistical downscaling method. The downscaled data showed good accuracy in representing the large-scale GCM data. Furthermore, the "Potential of Wind Erosion Occurrence" was calculated for monthly and annual time scales using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric trend test. The results indicated that there were no significant trends in wind erosion occurrence during the base period (i.e., 1988 to 2017). However, it was projected that the "potential for wind erosion occurrence" and the "percentage of windy days associated with drought" would increase in the near future (i.e., 2031 to 2060) under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Interestingly, both scenarios showed a decreasing trend in wind erosion occurrence in the far future (i.e., 2071 to 2100). This suggests that changes in wind patterns play a significant role in shaping wind erosion potential, while daily precipitation does not have a significant impact on this trend.

Candidate genes under selection in song sparrows co-vary with climate and body mass in support of Bergmann's Rule

Ecogeographic rules denote spatial patterns in phenotype and environment that may reflect local adaptation as well as a species' capacity to adapt to change. To identify genes underlying Bergmann's Rule, which posits that spatial correlations of body mass and temperature reflect natural selection and local adaptation in endotherms, we compare 79 genomes from nine song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) subspecies that vary ~300% in body mass (17 - 50 g). Comparing large- and smaller-bodied subspecies revealed 9 candidate genes in three genomic regions associated with body mass. Further comparisons to the five smallest subspecies endemic to California revealed eight SNPs within four of the candidate genes (GARNL3, RALGPS1, ANGPTL2, and COL15A1) associated with body mass and varying as predicted by Bergmann's Rule. Our results support the hypothesis that co-variation in environment, body mass and genotype reflect the influence of natural selection on local adaptation and a capacity for contemporary evolution in this diverse species.

Mapping canopy traits over Québec using airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy

The advent of new spaceborne imaging spectrometers offers new opportunities for ecologists to map vegetation traits at global scales. However, to date most imaging spectroscopy studies exploiting satellite spectrometers have been constrained to the landscape scale. In this paper we present a new method to map vegetation traits at the landscape scale and upscale trait maps to the continental level, using historical spaceborne imaging spectroscopy (Hyperion) to derive estimates of leaf mass per area, nitrogen, and carbon concentrations of forests in Québec, Canada. We compare estimates for each species with reference field values and obtain good agreement both at the landscape and continental scales, with patterns consistent with the leaf economic spectrum. By exploiting the Hyperion satellite archive to map these traits and successfully upscale the estimates to the continental scale, we demonstrate the great potential of recent and upcoming spaceborne spectrometers to benefit plant biodiversity monitoring and conservation efforts.

Plant provenance can influence the impacts of temperature and moisture on intraspecific competition in Pseudoroegneria spicata

Warming and changing precipitation can alter the performance of native grasses that are essential to grassland ecosystems. Native grasses may respond to changing climate by phenotypic plasticity or lose their current ranges. Establishing plant species from southern, warmer provenances may reduce the likelihood of biodiversity loss and improve restoration success in cool, northern locations that are undergoing warming. We conducted competition trials for Pseudoroegneria spicata (bluebunch wheatgrass), a native grass commonly found in western North American grasslands, to understand the impact of temperature and moisture on plant-plant interactions. We obtained seeds from three locations along a latitudinal gradient in North America, two in British Columbia (BC), Canada, and one in California, USA. We compared the effects of warming, changing water inputs, and competitor provenance on pairwise competitive interactions among Pseudoroegneria spicata plants grown from seeds obtained from the three locations. We quantified interactions using the relative interaction intensity, which has values from -1 (complete competition) to +1 (complete facilitation). Target plants from northern British Columbia, the location with the coldest summer temperature, were generally more competitively suppressed when competing with plants from California, which had the warmest summer temperature and lowest summer precipitation. Competitive suppression of target plants from northern British Columbia and southern British Columbia was more intense when competitor provenance was more geographically distant from target plant provenance. Finally, plants from northern British Columbia and southern British Columbia were more suppressed at higher temperatures, indicating some local adaptation, while plants from California were not affected by competitors, temperature, or water input. Plants grown from seeds obtained from warm and dry locations appear to be more tolerant to competition at higher temperatures, compared to plants from cooler regions. Native plant diversity and restoration success in grasslands subjected to climate change may be preserved or improved by assisted migration of seeds from warm to cooler but warming locations.

Urbanization, climate and species traits shape mammal communities from local to continental scales

Human-driven environmental changes shape ecological communities from local to global scales. Within cities, landscape-scale patterns and processes and species characteristics generally drive local-scale wildlife diversity. However, cities differ in their structure, species pools, geographies and histories, calling into question the extent to which these drivers of wildlife diversity are predictive at continental scales. In partnership with the Urban Wildlife Information Network, we used occurrence data from 725 sites located across 20 North American cities and a multi-city, multi-species occupancy modelling approach to evaluate the effects of ecoregional characteristics and mammal species traits on the urbanization-diversity relationship. Among 37 native terrestrial mammal species, regional environmental characteristics and species traits influenced within-city effects of urbanization on species occupancy and community composition. Species occupancy and diversity were most negatively related to urbanization in the warmer, less vegetated cities. Additionally, larger-bodied species were most negatively impacted by urbanization across North America. Our results suggest that shifting climate conditions could worsen the effects of urbanization on native wildlife communities, such that conservation strategies should seek to mitigate the combined effects of a warming and urbanizing world.

Phenotypic plasticity of growth ring traits in Pinus hartwegii at the ends of its elevational gradient

Introduction

Phenotypic plasticity (PP) could be an important short-term mechanism to modify physiological and morphological traits in response to climate change and global warming, particularly for high-mountain tree species. The objective was to evaluate PP response of growth ring traits to temperature and precipitation in Pinus hartwegii Lindl. populations located at the ends of its elevational gradient on two volcanic mountains in central Mexico (La Malinche and Nevado de Toluca).

Methods

Increment cores collected from 274 P. hartwegii trees were used to estimate their PP through reaction norms (RN), which relate the ring width and density traits with climate variables (temperature and precipitation). We estimated the trees' sensitivity (significant RN) to climatic variables, as well as the relative proportion of RN with positive and negative slope. We also estimated the relationship between the PP of ring width and density traits using correlation and Principal Component (PC) analyses.

Results

Over 70% of all trees showed significant RN to growing season and winter temperatures for at least one growth ring trait, with a similar proportion of significant RN at both ends of the gradient on both mountains. Ring width traits had mostly negative RN, while ring density traits tended to have positive RN. Frequency of negative RN decreased from lower to higher elevation for most traits. Average PP was higher at the lower end of the gradient, especially on LM, both for ring width and ring density traits, although high intrapopulation variation in PP was found on both mountains.

Discussion

Results indicate that P. hartwegii presents spatially differentiated plastic responses in width and density components of radial growth. PP was particularly strong at the lower elevation, which has higher temperature and water stress conditions, putting these populations at risk from the continuing global warming driven by climate change.

Modelling the potential of forest management to mitigate climate change in Eastern Canadian forests

Climate change poses a serious risk to sustainable forest management, particularly in boreal forests where natural disturbances have been projected to become more severe. In three Quebec boreal forest management units, biomass carbon storage under various climate change and management scenarios was projected over 300 years (2010-2310) with a process-based dynamic landscape model (PnET-succession for Landis-II). Several strategies varying in their use of partial cuts and clear cuts, including business as usual (BAU) (clear-cut applied on more than 95% of the managed area), were tested and compared to conservation scenarios (no-harvest). Based on simulation results at the landscape scale, the clearcut-based scenarios such as BAU could result in a decrease of biomass carbon stock by 10 tC ha-1 yr-1 compared to the natural scenario. However, this reduction in carbon stock could be offset in the long term through changes in composition, as clearcut systems promote the expansion of trembling aspen and white birch. In contrast, the use of strategies based on partial cuts on more than 75% or 50% of the managed area was closer to or better than the natural scenario and resulted in greater coniferous cover retention. These strategies seemed to be the best to maximize and stabilize biomass carbon storage and ensure wood supply under different climate change scenarios, yet they would require further access and appropriate infrastructure. Furthermore, these strategies could maintain species compositions and age structures similar to natural scenarios, and thus may consequently help achieve forest ecosystem-based management targets. This study presents promising strategies to guide sustainable forest management in Eastern Canada in the context of climate change.

Reforestation of high elevation pines: Direct seeding success depends on seed source and sowing environment

Forest persistence in regions impacted by increasing water and temperature stress will depend upon species' ability to either rapidly adjust to novel conditions or migrate to track ecological niches. Predicted, rapid climate change is likely to outpace the adaptive and migratory capacity of long-lived isolated tree species, and reforestation may be critical to species' persistence. Facilitating persistence both within and beyond a species' range requires identification of seed lots best adapted to the current and future conditions predicted with rapid climate change. We evaluate variation in emergent seedling performance that leads to differential survival among species and populations for three high elevation five-needle pines. We paired a fully reciprocal field common garden experiment with a greenhouse common garden study to (1) quantify variation in seedling emergence and functional traits, (2) ask how functional traits affect performance under different establishment conditions, and (3) evaluate whether trait and performance variation demonstrates local adaptation and plasticity. Among study species-limber, Great Basin bristlecone, and whitebark pines-we found divergence in emergence and functional traits, though soil moisture was the strongest driver of seedling emergence and abundance across all species. Generalist limber pine had a clear emergence advantage as well as traits associated with drought adaptation, while edaphic specialist bristlecone pine was characterized by low emergence yet high early survival once established. Despite evidence for edaphic specialization, soil characteristics alone did not explain bristlecone success. Across species, trait-environment relationships provided some evidence for local adaptation in drought-adapted traits, but we found no evidence of local adaptation in emergence or survival at this early life stage. For managers looking to promote persistence, sourcing seed from drier environments is likely to impart greater drought resistance into reforestation efforts through strategies such as greater root investment, increasing the probability of early seedling survival. This research demonstrates, through a rigorous reciprocal transplant experimental design, that it may be possible to select climate- and soil-appropriate seed sources for reforestation. However, planting success will ultimately rely on a suitable establishment environment, requiring careful consideration of interannual climate variability for management interventions in these climate and disturbance-impacted tree species.

Permafrost thaw induces short-term increase in vegetation productivity in northwestern Canada

Over the past several decades, various trends in vegetation productivity, from increases to decreases, have been observed throughout Arctic-Boreal ecosystems. While some of this variation can be explained by recent climate warming and increased disturbance, very little is known about the impacts of permafrost thaw on productivity across diverse vegetation communities. Active layer thickness data from 135 permafrost monitoring sites along a 10° latitudinal transect of the Northwest Territories, Canada, paired with a Landsat time series of normalized difference vegetation index from 1984 to 2019, were used to quantify the impacts of changing permafrost conditions on vegetation productivity. We found that active layer thickness contributed to the observed variation in vegetation productivity in recent decades in the northwestern Arctic-Boreal, with the highest rates of greening occurring at sites where the near-surface permafrost recently had thawed. However, the greening associated with permafrost thaw was not sustained after prolonged periods of thaw and appeared to diminish after the thaw front extended outside the plants' rooting zone. Highest rates of greening were found at the mid-transect sites, between 62.4° N and 65.2° N, suggesting that more southernly sites may have already surpassed the period of beneficial permafrost thaw, while more northern sites may have yet to reach a level of thaw that supports enhanced vegetation productivity. These results indicate that the response of vegetation productivity to permafrost thaw is highly dependent on the extent of active layer thickening and that increases in productivity may not continue in the coming decades.

Complex climate-mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited. Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering). Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions. Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.

Picturing local adaptation: Spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing reveal clinal responses to climate transfer in common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca)

Common-garden trials of forest trees provide phenotype data used to assess growth and local adaptation; this information is foundational to tree breeding programs, genecology, and gene conservation. As jurisdictions consider assisted migration strategies to match populations to suitable climates, in situ progeny and provenance trials provide experimental evidence of adaptive responses to climate change. We used drone technology, multispectral imaging, and digital aerial photogrammetry to quantify spectral traits related to stress, photosynthesis, and carotenoids, and structural traits describing crown height, size, and complexity at six climatically disparate common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca) in western Canada. Through principal component analysis, we identified key components of climate related to temperature, moisture, and elevational gradients. Phenotypic clines in remotely sensed traits were analyzed as trait correlations with provenance climate transfer distances along principal components (PCs). We used traits showing clinal variation to model best linear unbiased predictions for tree height (R2  = .98-.99, root mean square error [RMSE] = 0.06-0.10 m) and diameter at breast height (DBH, R2  = .71-.97, RMSE = 2.57-3.80 mm) and generated multivariate climate transfer functions with the model predictions. Significant (p < .05) clines were present for spectral traits at all sites along all PCs. Spectral traits showed stronger clinal variation than structural traits along temperature and elevational gradients and along moisture gradients at wet, coastal sites, but not at dry, interior sites. Spectral traits may capture patterns of local adaptation to temperature and montane growing seasons which are distinct from moisture-limited patterns in stem growth. This work demonstrates that multispectral indices improve the assessment of local adaptation and that spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing produce reliable proxies for ground-measured height and DBH. This phenotyping framework contributes to the analysis of common-garden trials towards a mechanistic understanding of local adaptation to climate.

Demographic consequences of an extreme heat wave are mitigated by spatial heterogeneity in an annual monkeyflower

Heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, but the demographic and evolutionary consequences of heat waves are rarely investigated in herbaceous plant species. We examine the consequences of a short but extreme heat wave in Oregon populations of the common yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus) by leveraging a common garden experiment planted with range-wide populations and observational studies of 11 local populations. In the common garden, 89% of seedlings died during the heat wave including >96% of seedlings from geographically local populations. Some populations from hotter and drier environments had higher fitness, however, others from comparable environments performed poorly. Observational studies of local natural populations drastically differed in the consequences of the heat wave-one population was completely extirpated and nearly half had a >50% decrease in fitness. However, a few populations had greater fitness during the heat wave year. Differences in mortality corresponded to the impact of the heat wave on soil moisture-retention of soil moisture throughout the heat wave led to greater survivorship. Our results suggest that not all populations experience the same intensity or degree of mortality during extreme events and such heterogeneity could be important for genetic rescue or to facilitate the distribution of adaptive variants throughout the region.

Unique drought resistance strategies occur among monkeyflower populations spanning an aridity gradient

PREMISE

Annual plants often exhibit drought-escape and avoidance strategies to cope with limited water availability. Determining the extent of variation and factors underlying the evolution of divergent strategies is necessary for determining population responses to more frequent and severe droughts.

METHODS

We leveraged five Mimulus guttatus populations collected across an aridity gradient within manipulative drought and quantitative genetics experiments to examine constitutive and terminal-drought induced responses in drought resistance traits.

RESULTS

Populations varied considerably in drought-escape- and drought-avoidance-associated traits. The most mesic population demonstrated a unique resource conservative strategy. Xeric populations exhibited extreme plasticity when exposed to terminal drought that included flowering earlier at shorter heights, increasing water-use efficiency, and shifting C:N ratios. However, plasticity responses also differed between populations, with two populations slowing growth rates and flowering at earlier nodes and another population increasing growth rate. While nearly all traits were heritable, phenotypic correlations differed substantially between treatments and often, populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest drought resistance strategies of populations may be finely adapted to local patterns of water availability. Substantial plastic responses suggest that xeric populations can already acclimate to drought through plasticity, but populations not frequently exposed to drought may be more vulnerable.

Regional habitat suitability for aquatic and terrestrial invasive plant species may expand or contract with climate change

The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum, and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes, that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species (P. officinarum) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species (G. lucidum) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8.

Applying climate change refugia to forest management and old-growth restoration

Recent studies highlight the potential of climate change refugia (CCR) to support the persistence of biodiversity in regions that may otherwise become unsuitable with climate change. However, a key challenge in using CCR for climate resilient management lies in how CCR may intersect with existing forest management strategies, and subsequently influence how landscapes buffer species from negative impacts of warming climate. We address this challenge in temperate coastal forests of the Pacific Northwestern United States, where declines in the extent of late-successional forests have prompted efforts to restore old-growth forest structure. One common approach for doing so involves selectively thinning forest stands to enhance structural complexity. However, dense canopy is a key forest feature moderating understory microclimate and potentially buffering organisms from climate change impacts, raising the possibility that approaches for managing forests for old-growth structure may reduce the extent and number of CCR. We used remotely sensed vegetation indices to identify CCR in an experimental forest with control and thinned (restoration) treatments, and explored the influence of biophysical variables on buffering capacity. We found that remotely sensed vegetation indices commonly used to identify CCR were associated with understory temperature and plant community composition, and thus captured aspects of landscape buffering that might instill climate resilience and be of interest to management. We then examined the interaction between current restoration strategies and CCR, and found that selective thinning for promoting old-growth structure had only very minor, if any, effects on climatic buffering. In all, our study demonstrates that forest management approaches aimed at restoring old-growth structure through targeted thinning do not greatly decrease buffering capacity, despite a known link between dense canopy and CCR. More broadly, this study illustrates the value of using remote sensing approaches to identify CCR, facilitating the integration of climate change adaptation with other forest management approaches.

Evolutionary potential mitigates extinction risk under climate change in the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher

The complexity of global anthropogenic change makes forecasting species responses and planning effective conservation actions challenging. Additionally, important components of a species' adaptive capacity, such as evolutionary potential, are often not included in quantitative risk assessments due to lack of data. While genomic proxies for evolutionary potential in at-risk species are increasingly available, they have not yet been included in extinction risk assessments at a species-wide scale. In this study, we used an individual-based, spatially explicit, dynamic eco-evolutionary simulation model to evaluate the extinction risk of an endangered desert songbird, the southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus), in response to climate change. Using data from long-term demographic and habitat studies in conjunction with genome-wide ecological genomics research, we parameterized simulations that include 418 sites across the breeding range, genomic data from 225 individuals, and climate change forecasts spanning 3 generalized circulation models and 3 emissions scenarios. We evaluated how evolutionary potential, and the lack of it, impacted population trajectories in response to climate change. We then investigated the compounding impact of drought and warming temperatures on extinction risk through the mechanism of increased nest failure. Finally, we evaluated how rapid action to reverse greenhouse gas emissions would influence population responses and species extinction risk. Our results illustrate the value of incorporating evolutionary, demographic, and dispersal processes in a spatially explicit framework to more comprehensively evaluate the extinction risk of threatened and endangered species and conservation actions to promote their recovery.

Genomic signatures of local adaptation in recent invasive Aedes aegypti populations in California

BACKGROUND

Rapid adaptation to new environments can facilitate species invasions and range expansions. Understanding the mechanisms of adaptation used by invasive disease vectors in new regions has key implications for mitigating the prevalence and spread of vector-borne disease, although they remain relatively unexplored.

RESULTS

Here, we integrate whole-genome sequencing data from 96 Aedes aegypti mosquitoes collected from various sites in southern and central California with 25 annual topo-climate variables to investigate genome-wide signals of local adaptation among populations. Patterns of population structure, as inferred using principal components and admixture analysis, were consistent with three genetic clusters. Using various landscape genomics approaches, which all remove the confounding effects of shared ancestry on correlations between genetic and environmental variation, we identified 112 genes showing strong signals of local environmental adaptation associated with one or more topo-climate factors. Some of them have known effects in climate adaptation, such as heat-shock proteins, which shows selective sweep and recent positive selection acting on these genomic regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide a genome wide perspective on the distribution of adaptive loci and lay the foundation for future work to understand how environmental adaptation in Ae. aegypti impacts the arboviral disease landscape and how such adaptation could help or hinder efforts at population control.

Population structure and hybridization under contemporary and future climates in a heteroploid foundational shrub species (Artemisia tridentata)

Current and past climatic changes can shift plant climatic niches, which may cause spatial overlap or separation between related taxa. The former often leads to hybridization and introgression, which may generate novel variation and influence the adaptive capacity of plants. An additional mechanism facilitating adaptations to novel environments and an important evolutionary driver in plants is polyploidy as the result of whole genome duplication. Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) is a landscape-dominating foundational shrub in the western United States which occupies distinct ecological niches, exhibiting diploid and tetraploid cytotypes. Tetraploids have a large impact on the species' landscape dominance as they occupy a preponderance of the arid spectrum of A. tridentata range. Three distinct subspecies are recognized, which co-occur in ecotones - the transition zone between two or more distinct ecological niches - allowing for hybridization and introgression. Here we assess the genomic distinctiveness and extent of hybridization among subspecies at different ploidies under both contemporary and predicted future climates. We sampled five transects throughout the western United States where a subspecies overlap was predicted using subspecies-specific climate niche models. Along each transect, we sampled multiple plots representing the parental and the potential hybrid habitats. We performed reduced representation sequencing and processed the data using a ploidy-informed genotyping approach. Population genomic analyses revealed distinct diploid subspecies and at least two distinct tetraploid gene pools, indicating independent origins of the tetraploid populations. We detected low levels of hybridization (2.5%) between the diploid subspecies, while we found evidence for increased admixture between ploidy levels (18%), indicating hybridization has an important role in the formation of tetraploids. Our analyses highlight the importance of subspecies co-occurrence within these ecotones to maintain gene exchange and potential formation of tetraploid populations. Genomic confirmations of subspecies in the ecotones support the subspecies overlap predicted by the contemporary climate niche models. However, future mid-century projections of subspecies niches predict a substantial loss in range and subspecies overlap. Thus, reductions in hybridization potential could affect new recruitment of genetically variable tetraploids that are vital to this species' ecological role. Our results underscore the importance of ecotone conservation and restoration.

Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations

Global climate change is shifting the timing of life-cycle events, sometimes resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and prey. Phenological shifts and subsequent mismatches may be consistent across populations, or they could vary unpredictably across populations within the same species. For anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), juveniles from thousands of locally adapted populations migrate from diverse freshwater habitats to the Pacific Ocean every year. Both the timing of freshwater migration and ocean arrival, relative to nearshore prey (phenological match/mismatch), can control marine survival and population dynamics. Here we examined phenological change of 66 populations across six anadromous Pacific salmon species throughout their range in western North America with the longest time series spanning 1951-2019. We show that different salmon species have different rates of phenological change but that there was substantial within-species variation that was not correlated with changing environmental conditions or geographic patterns. Moreover, outmigration phenologies have not tracked shifts in the timing of marine primary productivity, potentially increasing the frequency of future phenological mismatches. Understanding population responses to mismatches with prey are an important part of characterizing overall population-specific climate vulnerability.

The Invasion History of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae) in Puerto Rico: Past, Present, and Future Perspectives

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, 1908 (Hemiptera: Liviidae), is a phloem-feeding insect pest of Citrus L. ( Sapindales: Rutaceae), Murraya J. Koenig ex L. (Sapindales: Rutaceae), and other Rutaceae, native to the Indian subcontinent and transmits the citrus greening pathogens (huanglongbing). We herein evaluate the occurrence of D. citri in Puerto Rico at a fine scale and the potential invasion history of the Caribbean from the native range. We found that the genetic diversity of D. citri in Puerto Rico, using the mitochondrial genetic marker CO1, indicated that the Caribbean haplotype is unique and more related to Southwest Asia haplotypes than other groups. Results then suggest that the invasion of the Caribbean did not occur from the United States. Also, we found that isothermality was the abiotic variable that influenced D. citri species distribution model performance the most in current and future climate change scenarios. Given the data available from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) for present D.citri reported occurrence, future projections suggest that climate change might promote an expansion of the pest to other Caribbean islands and Latin American countries. Still, it might elicit a range contraction across the Cordillera Central in Puerto Rico, possibly promoting citriculture. Regarding pest management strategies, we must consider a holistic approach to understanding D. citri invasion and resilience in novel habitats by including broader and more robust genetic population structure studies and if its current distribution reflects projected models across the neotropics.

Large increases in methane emissions expected from North America's largest wetland complex

Natural methane (CH₄) emissions from aquatic ecosystems may rise because of human-induced climate warming, although the magnitude of increase is highly uncertain. Using an exceptionally large CH₄ flux dataset (~19,000 chamber measurements) and remotely sensed information, we modeled plot- and landscape-scale wetland CH₄ emissions from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), North America's largest wetland complex. Plot-scale CH₄ emissions were driven by hydrology, temperature, vegetation, and wetland size. Historically, landscape-scale PPR wetland CH₄ emissions were largely dependent on total wetland extent. However, regardless of future wetland extent, PPR CH₄ emissions are predicted to increase by two- or threefold by 2100 under moderate or severe warming scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest that international efforts to decrease atmospheric CH₄ concentrations should jointly account for anthropogenic and natural emissions to maintain climate mitigation targets to the end of the century.

From common gardens to candidate genes: exploring local adaptation to climate in red spruce

Local adaptation to climate is common in plant species and has been studied in a range of contexts, from improving crop yields to predicting population maladaptation to future conditions. The genomic era has brought new tools to study this process, which was historically explored through common garden experiments. In this study, we combine genomic methods and common gardens to investigate local adaptation in red spruce and identify environmental gradients and loci involved in climate adaptation. We first use climate transfer functions to estimate the impact of climate change on seedling performance in three common gardens. We then explore the use of multivariate gene-environment association methods to identify genes underlying climate adaptation, with particular attention to the implications of conducting genome scans with and without correction for neutral population structure. This integrative approach uncovered phenotypic evidence of local adaptation to climate and identified a set of putatively adaptive genes, some of which are involved in three main adaptive pathways found in other temperate and boreal coniferous species: drought tolerance, cold hardiness, and phenology. These putatively adaptive genes segregated into two 'modules' associated with different environmental gradients. This study nicely exemplifies the multivariate dimension of adaptation to climate in trees.

Moisture-driven divergence in mineral-associated soil carbon persistence

Mineral stabilization of soil organic matter is an important regulator of the global carbon (C) cycle. However, the vulnerability of mineral-stabilized organic matter (OM) to climate change is currently unknown. We examined soil profiles from 34 sites across the conterminous USA to investigate how the abundance and persistence of mineral-associated organic C varied with climate at the continental scale. Using a novel combination of radiocarbon and molecular composition measurements, we show that the relationship between the abundance and persistence of mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) appears to be driven by moisture availability. In wetter climates where precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration, excess moisture leads to deeper and more prolonged periods of wetness, creating conditions which favor greater root abundance and also allow for greater diffusion and interaction of inputs with MAOM. In these humid soils, mineral-associated soil organic C concentration and persistence are strongly linked, whereas this relationship is absent in drier climates. In arid soils, root abundance is lower, and interaction of inputs with mineral surfaces is limited by shallower and briefer periods of moisture, resulting in a disconnect between concentration and persistence. Data suggest a tipping point in the cycling of mineral-associated C at a climate threshold where precipitation equals evaporation. As climate patterns shift, our findings emphasize that divergence in the mechanisms of OM persistence associated with historical climate legacies need to be considered in process-based models.

Biodiversity patterns diverge along geographic temperature gradients

Models applying space-for-time substitution, including those projecting ecological responses to climate change, generally assume an elevational and latitudinal equivalence that is rarely tested. However, a mismatch may lead to different capacities for providing climatic refuge to dispersing species. We compiled community data on zooplankton, ectothermic animals that form the consumer basis of most aquatic food webs, from over 1200 mountain lakes and ponds across western North America to assess biodiversity along geographic temperature gradients spanning nearly 3750 m elevation and 30° latitude. Species richness, phylogenetic relationships, and functional diversity all showed contrasting responses across gradients, with richness metrics plateauing at low elevations but exhibiting intermediate latitudinal maxima. The nonmonotonic/hump-shaped diversity trends with latitude emerged from geographic interactions, including weaker latitudinal relationships at higher elevations (i.e. in alpine lakes) linked to different underlying drivers. Here, divergent patterns of phylogenetic and functional trait dispersion indicate shifting roles of environmental filters and limiting similarity in the assembly of communities with increasing elevation and latitude. We further tested whether gradients showed common responses to warmer temperatures and found that mean annual (but not seasonal) temperatures predicted elevational richness patterns but failed to capture consistent trends with latitude, meaning that predictions of how climate change will influence diversity also differ between gradients. Contrasting responses to elevation- and latitude-driven warming suggest different limits on climatic refugia and likely greater barriers to northward range expansion.

Differences in heat tolerance, water use efficiency and growth among Douglas-fir families and varieties evidenced by GWAS and common garden studies

Severe and frequent heat and drought events challenge the survival and development of long-generation trees. In this study, we investigated the genomic basis of heat tolerance, water use efficiency and growth by performing genome-wide association studies in coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and intervarietal (menziesii × glauca) hybrid seedlings. GWAS results identified 32 candidate genes involved in primary and secondary metabolism, abiotic stress and signaling, among other functions. Water use efficiency (inferred from carbon isotope discrimination), photosynthetic capacity (inferred from %N), height and heat tolerance (inferred from electrolyte leakage in a heat stress experiment) were significantly different among Douglas-fir families and varieties. High-elevation seed sources had increased water use efficiency, which could be a result of higher photosynthetic capacity. Similarly, families with greater heat tolerance also had higher water use efficiency and slower growth, suggesting a conservative growth strategy. Intervarietal hybrids showed increased heat tolerance (lower electrolyte leakage at 50 and 55 °C) and higher water use efficiency compared with coastal families, suggesting that hybridization might be a source of pre-adapted alleles to warming climates and should be considered for large-scale reforestation projects under increasingly arid conditions.