The Eatwell Guide: Modelling the Health Implications of Incorporating New Sugar and Fibre Guidelines

The effectiveness of personalised food choice advice tailored to an individual's socio-demographic, cognitive characteristics, and sensory preferences

Personalised dietary advice has become increasingly popular, currently however most approaches are based on an individual's genetic and phenotypic profile whilst largely ignoring other determinants such as socio economic and cognitive variables. This paper provides novel insights by testing the effectiveness of personalised healthy eating advice concurrently tailored to an individual's socio-demographic group, cognitive characteristics, and sensory preferences. We first used existing data to build a synthetic dataset based on information from 3654 households (Study 1a), and then developed a cluster model to identify individuals characterised by similar socio-demographic, cognitive, and sensory aspects (Study 1b). Finally, in Study 2 we used the characteristics of 8 clusters to build 8 separate personalised food choice advice and assess their ability to motivate the increased consumption of fruit and vegetables and decreased intakes of saturated fat and sugar. We presented 218 participants with either generic UK Government "EatWell" advice, advice that was tailored to their allocated cluster (matched personalised), or advice tailored to a different cluster (unmatched personalised). Results showed that, when compared to generic advice, participants that received matched personalised advice were significantly more likely to indicate they would change their diet. Participants were similarly motivated to increase vegetable consumption and decrease saturated fat intake when they received unmatched personalised advice, potentially highlighting the power of providing alternative food choices. Overall, this study demonstrated that the power of personalizing food choice advice, based on a combination of individual characteristics, can be more effective than current approaches in motivating dietary change. Our study also emphasizes the viability of addressing population health through automatically delivered web-based personalised advice.

General Dietary Recommendations for People with Down Syndrome

Down syndrome (DS) is caused by trisomy of chromosome 21 and is associated with characteristic features of appearance, intellectual impairment to varying degrees, organ defects, and health problems typical of this syndrome. Studies on the frequency of consumption of food products in this group show many irregularities, in particular too low consumption of vegetables and fruits, wholegrain cereal products and dairy products, and excessive consumption of meat products and sweets. It is necessary to correct eating habits. The diets of people with trisomy 21 should be consistent with the recommendations of rational nutrition for the general population and take into account specific dietary modifications related to the occurrence of diseases and health problems characteristic of this syndrome.

The role of diet in cancer: the potential of shaping public policy and clinical outcomes in the UK

Cancer universally represents one of the largest public health concerns, substantially contributing to global disease burden and mortality. The multifaceted interplay of environmental and genetic factors in the disease aetiology and progression has required comprehensive research to elucidate modifiable elements which can reduce the risk of incidence and improve prognosis. Among these factors, diet and nutrition have emerged as the most fundamental with a significant potential for influence and effect. Nutrition is not only an essential part of human survival, but also a vital determinant of overall health. Certain dietary requirements are necessary to support normal physiology. This includes individualised levels of macronutrients (proteins, carbohydrates and fats) and specific micronutrients (vitamins and minerals). Extensive research has demonstrated that diet plays a role in cancer pathogenesis at the genetic, epigenetic and cellular level. Therefore, its potential as a modifiable determinant of cancer pathogenesis for the purpose of prevention and improving management of disease must be further explored and implemented. The ability to influence cancer incidence and outcomes through dietary changes is underutilised in clinical practice and insufficiently recognised among the general public, healthcare professionals and policy-makers. Dietary changes offer the opportunity for autonomy and control over individuals health outcomes. Research has revealed that particular dietary components, as well as cultural behaviours and epidemiological patterns may act as causative or protective factors in cancer development. This review aims to comprehensively synthesise this research to further explore how to best utilise this knowledge within the community and clinical environment for more effective cancer prevention and therapeutic strategies. The identified key areas for improvement include the development of more specific, widely accepted guidelines, promoting increased involvement of dieticians within cancer multidisciplinary teams, enhancing nutritional education for healthcare professionals and exploring the potential implementation of personalised nutrition tools. A greater understanding of the complex interactions between diet and cancer will facilitate informed clinical interventions and public health policies to reduce global cancer burden and improve care for cancer patients and survivors.

The planet on our plates: approaches to incorporate environmental sustainability within food-based dietary guidelines

For many decades, food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs) were only health-oriented. This changed post-2009 when gradually, an increasing number of countries began to include environmental sustainability considerations in their guidelines. International organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have stated that governments should include environmental sustainability in future FBDGs. However, methodologies on how this should be done are lacking. Therefore, through workshops and discussions with experts, we analysed a selection of methodologies and classified them into six groups: (1) health first; (2) additional advice; (3) demonstrating synergies; (4) modelling impact; (5) combining strategies; (6) systems first. We then assessed how innovative each approach was and their potential for transformative impact. Of the 6 approaches investigated, only approaches 5 and 6 could be considered as disruptive innovations and leading to major changes. Adding environmental sustainability into FBDGs is a policy innovation and has become a debate between old and new multi-criteria guidelines for eating. With the addition of environmental sustainability in FBDGS, a new or emerging set of multi-criteria guidelines for judging food are being proposed that challenges past norms and governance. Today, there is growing scientific consensus that diets that are good for human health are also good for the environment. There is also a growing recognition that food system change is inevitable and desirable. We see this as a positive opportunity to collaborate on FBDGs that are more appropriate for the 21st century and ambitious enough to meet the environmental challenges at hand.

Barriers and facilitators to healthy eating in disadvantaged adults living in the UK: a scoping review

In the UK people living in disadvantaged communities are less likely than those with higher socio-economic status to have a healthy diet. To address this inequality, it is crucial scientists, practitioners and policy makers understand the factors that hinder and assist healthy food choice in these individuals. In this scoping review, we aimed to identify barriers and facilitators to healthy eating among disadvantaged individuals living in the UK. Additionally, we used the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) to synthesise results and provide a guide for the development of theory-informed behaviour change interventions. Five databases were searched, (CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science) for articles assessing healthy dietary intake of disadvantaged adults living in the UK. A total of 50 papers (34 quantitative; 16 qualitative) were included in this review. Across all studies we identified 78 barriers and 49 facilitators found to either impede and/or encourage healthy eating. Both barriers and facilitators were more commonly classified under the Environmental, Context and Resources TDF domain, with 74% of studies assessing at least one factor pertaining to this domain. Results thus indicate that context related factors such as high cost and accessibility of healthy food, rather than personal factors, such as lack of efficiency in healthy lifestyle drive unhealthy eating in disadvantaged individuals in the UK. We discuss how such factors are largely overlooked in current interventions and propose that more effort should be directed towards implementing interventions that specifically target infrastructures rather than individuals.

The projected economic burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil by 2030

OBJECTIVES

The prevalence of overweight increases the risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and, consequently, the costs of health care systems. In this study, we aimed to project the economic burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil between 2021 and 2030.

METHODS

A cohort simulation of adults (17-117 years) using multistate lifetable modeling was used to estimate the costs of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil. The projections of direct health care costs (outpatient and inpatient expenses in the Unified Health System) and indirect costs (years of productive life lost) considered different trajectories of the prevalence of overweight between 2021 and 2030.

RESULTS

In 2019, the prevalence of overweight was 55.4% in the adult Brazilian population. We estimate that around 1.8 billion international dollars (Int$) would be spent on the direct health care cost of NCDs between 2021 and 2030, through the continued increase in overweight prevalence observed between 2006 and 2020. The indirect costs over the same time would be approximately 20.1 billion Int$. We estimate that halving the annual increase in body mass index slope from the beginning of 2021 until 2030 would save 20.2 million Int$ direct and indirect costs by 2030. In the scenario of keeping the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 constant until 2030, the savings would be 40.8 million Int$. Finally, in the scenario of a 6.7% reduction in the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 (to be achieved gradually until 2030), 74.1 million Int$ would be saved.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the high economic burden of overweight in the Brazilian adult population.

Adherence to the Eatwell Guide and population and planetary health: A Rank Prize Forum report

This report summarises a Forum conducted in June 2023 to explore the current state of the knowledge around the Eatwell Guide, which is the UK government's healthy eating tool, in relation to population and planetary health. The 1.5-day Forum highlighted the limited, albeit promising evidence linking higher adherence to the Eatwell Guide with favourable health outcomes, including reduced overall mortality risk, lower abdominal obesity in post-menopausal women and improved cardiometabolic health markers. Similarly, evidence was presented to suggest that higher adherence to the Eatwell Guide is associated with reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Presentations were given around cultural adaptations of the Eatwell Guide, including African Heritage and South Asian versions, which are designed to increase the acceptability and uptake of the Eatwell Guide in these communities in the United Kingdom. Presentations highlighted ongoing work relevant to the applications of the Eatwell Guide in randomised controlled trials and public health settings, including the development of a screening tool to quantify Eatwell Guide adherence. The Forum ended with a World Café-style event, in which the strengths and limitations of the Eatwell Guide were discussed, and directions for future research were identified. This Forum report serves as a primer on the current state of the knowledge on the Eatwell Guide and population and planetary health and will be of interest to researchers, healthcare professionals and public health officials.

The Importance of Nutrition in Menopause and Perimenopause-A Review

Menopause is associated with an increased prevalence of obesity, metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular diseases, and osteoporosis. These diseases and unfavorable laboratory values, which are characteristic of this period in women, can be significantly improved by eliminating and reducing dietary risk factors. Changing dietary habits during perimenopause is most effectively achieved through nutrition counseling and intervention. To reduce the risk factors of all these diseases, and in the case of an already existing disease, dietary therapy led by a dietitian should be an integral part of the treatment. The following review summarizes the recommendations for a balanced diet and fluid intake, the dietary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, the role of sleep, and the key preventive nutrients in menopause, such as vitamin D, calcium, vitamin C, B vitamins, and protein intake. In summary, during the period of perimenopause and menopause, many lifestyle factors can reduce the risk of developing all the diseases (cardiovascular disease, insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis, and tumors) and symptoms characteristic of this period.

A multi-center prospective study of plant-based nutritional support in adult community-based patients at risk of disease-related malnutrition

Introduction

There is an emerging need for plant-based, vegan options for patients requiring nutritional support.

Methods

Twenty-four adults at risk of malnutrition (age: 59 years (SD 18); Sex: 18 female, 6 male; BMI: 19.0 kg/m2 (SD 3.3); multiple diagnoses) requiring plant-based nutritional support participated in a multi-center, prospective study of a (vegan suitable) multi-nutrient, ready-to-drink, oral nutritional supplement (ONS) [1.5 kcal/mL; 300 kcal, 12 g protein/200 mL bottle, mean prescription 275 mL/day (SD 115)] alongside dietary advice for 28 days. Compliance, anthropometry, malnutrition risk, dietary intake, appetite, acceptability, gastrointestinal (GI) tolerance, nutritional goal(s), and safety were assessed.

Results

Patients required a plant-based ONS due to personal preference/variety (33%), religious/cultural reasons (28%), veganism/reduce animal-derived consumption (17%), environmental/sustainability reasons (17%), and health reasons (5%). Compliance was 94% (SD 16). High risk of malnutrition ('MUST' score ≥ 2) reduced from 20 to 16 patients (p = 0.046). Body weight (+0.6 kg (SD 1.2), p = 0.02), BMI (+0.2 kg/m2 (SD 0.5), p = 0.03), total mean energy (+387 kcal/day (SD 416), p < 0.0001) and protein intake (+14 g/day (SD 39), p = 0.03), and the number of micronutrients meeting the UK reference nutrient intake (RNI) (7 vs. 14, p = 0.008) significantly increased. Appetite (Simplified Nutritional Appetite Questionnaire (SNAQ) score; p = 0.13) was maintained. Most GI symptoms were stable throughout the study (p > 0.06) with no serious adverse events related.

Discussion

This study highlights that plant-based nutrition support using a vegan-suitable plant-based ONS is highly complied with, improving the nutritional outcomes of patients at risk of malnutrition.

Food insecurity in people living with obesity: Improving sustainable and healthier food choices in the retail food environment-the FIO Food project

At both UK and global level, dietary consumption patterns need to change to address environmental, health and inequality challenges. Despite considerable policy interventions, the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the United Kingdom has continued to rise with obesity now a leading cause of mortality and morbidity. Obesity prevalence is greater among those on lower incomes and the current UK food system, including government policy, does not effectively address this. Current behavioural approaches, without the support of structural changes in the system, may even widen the inequalities gap. Hence, using behavioural insights from those living with obesity and food insecurity, the project will explore potential avenues that can be applied in the food system to promote healthier choices in the food retail environment. The National Food Strategy report recommends that the UK food system should ensure "safe, healthy, affordable food; regardless of where people live or how much they earn". However, the association between food insecurity and the development of obesity is not well understood in relation to purchasing behaviours in the UK retail food environment, nor is the potential effectiveness of interventions that seek to prevent and reduce the impact of diet-induced health harms. The FIO Food (Food insecurity in people living with obesity - improving sustainable and healthier food choices in the retail food environment) project provides a novel and multi-disciplinary collaborative approach with co-development at the heart to address these challenges. Using four interlinked work packages, the FIO Food project will combine our knowledge of large-scale population data with an understanding of lived experiences of food shopping for people living with obesity and food insecurity, to develop solutions to support more sustainable and healthier food choices in the UK retail food environment.

C-reactive protein partially mediates the inverse association between coffee consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: The UK Biobank and the Rotterdam study cohorts

BACKGROUND

Coffee is among the most consumed beverages worldwide. Coffee consumption has been associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), but underlying mechanisms are not well understood. We aimed to study the role of classic and novel-T2D biomarkers with anti- or pro-inflammatory activity in the association between habitual coffee intake and T2D risk. Furthermore, we studied differences by coffee types and smoking status in this association.

METHODS

Using two large population-based cohorts, the UK-Biobank (UKB; n = 145,368) and the Rotterdam Study (RS; n = 7111), we investigated associations of habitual coffee consumption with incident T2D and repeated measures of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), using Cox proportional hazards and mixed effect models, respectively. Additionally, we studied associations between coffee and subclinical inflammation biomarkers including C-reactive protein (CRP) and IL-13, and adipokines, such as adiponectin and leptin, using linear regression models. Next, we performed formal causal mediation analyses to investigate the role of coffee-associated biomarkers in the association of coffee with T2D. Finally, we evaluated effect modification by coffee type and smoking. All models were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle and health-related factors.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 13.9 (RS) and 7.4 (UKB) years, 843 and 2290 incident T2D cases occurred, respectively. A 1 cup/day increase in coffee consumption was associated with 4% lower T2D risk (RS, HR = 0.96 [95%CI 0.92; 0.99], p = 0.045; UKB, HR = 0.96 [0.94; 0.98], p < 0.001), with lower HOMA-IR (RS, log-transformed β = -0.017 [-0.024;-0.010], p < 0.001), and with lower CRP (RS, log-transformed β = -0.014 [-0.022;-0.005], p = 0.002; UKB, β = -0.011 [-0.012;-0.009], p < 0.001). We also observed associations of higher coffee consumption with higher serum adiponectin and IL-13 concentrations, and with lower leptin concentrations. Coffee-related CRP levels partially mediated the inverse association of coffee intake with T2D incidence (average mediation effect RS β = 0.105 (0.014; 0.240), p = 0.016; UKB β = 6.484 (4.265; 9.339), p < 0.001), with a proportion mediated by CRP from 3.7% [-0.012%; 24.4%] (RS) to 9.8% [5,7%; 25.8%] (UKB). No mediation effect was observed for the other biomarkers. Coffee-T2D and coffee-CRP associations were generally stronger among consumers of ground (filtered or espresso) coffee and among never and former smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower subclinical inflammation may partially mediate the beneficial association between coffee consumption and lower T2D risk. Consumers of ground coffee and non-smokers may benefit the most. KEYWORDS (MESH TERMS): coffee consumptions; diabetes mellitus, type 2; inflammation; adipokines; biomarkers; mediation analysis; follow-up studies.

Modelling health and economic impact of nutrition interventions: a systematic review

Diet related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), as well as micronutrient deficiencies, are of widespread and growing importance to public health. Authorities are developing programs to improve nutrient intakes via foods. To estimate the potential health and economic impact of these programs there is a wide variety of models. The aim of this review is to evaluate existing models to estimate the health and/or economic impact of nutrition interventions with a focus on reducing salt and sugar intake and increasing vitamin D, iron, and folate/folic acid intake. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016050873). The final search was conducted on PubMed and Scopus electronic databases and search strings were developed for salt/sodium, sugar, vitamin D, iron, and folic acid intake. Predefined criteria related to scientific quality, applicability, and funding/interest were used to evaluate the publications. In total 122 publications were included for a critical appraisal: 45 for salt/sodium, 61 for sugar, 4 for vitamin D, 9 for folic acid, and 3 for iron. The complexity of modelling the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions is dependent on the purpose and data availability. Although most of the models have the potential to provide projections of future impact, the methodological challenges are considerable. There is a substantial need for more guidance and standardization for future modelling, to compare results of different studies and draw conclusions about the health and economic impact of nutrition interventions.

Weight regain after behavioural weight management programmes and its impact on quality of life and cost effectiveness: Evidence synthesis and health economic analyses

AIMS

We used data from a recent systematic review to investigate weight regain after behavioural weight management programmes (BWMPs, sometimes referred to as lifestyle modification programmes) and its impact on quality-of-life and cost-effectiveness.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Trial registries, databases and forward-citation searching (latest search December 2019) were used to identify randomized trials of BWMPs in adults with overweight/obesity reporting outcomes at ≥12 months, and after programme end. Two independent reviewers screened records. One reviewer extracted data and a second checked them. The differences between intervention and control groups were synthesized using mixed-effect, meta-regression and time-to-event models. We examined associations between weight difference and difference in quality-of-life. Cost-effectiveness was estimated from a health sector perspective.

RESULTS

In total, 155 trials (n > 150 000) contributed to analyses. The longest follow-up was 23 years post-programme. At programme end, intervention groups achieved -2.8 kg (95%CI -3.2 to -2.4) greater weight loss than controls. Weight regain after programme end was 0.12-0.32 kg/year greater in intervention relative to control groups, with a between-group difference evident for at least 5 years. Quality-of-life increased in intervention groups relative to control at programme end and thereafter returned to control as the difference in weight between groups diminished. BWMPs with this initial weight loss and subsequent regain would be cost-effective if delivered for under £560 (£8.80-£3900) per person.

CONCLUSIONS

Modest rates of weight regain, with persistent benefits for several years, should encourage health care practitioners and policymakers to offer obesity treatments that cost less than our suggested thresholds as a cost-effective intervention to improve long-term weight management.

REGISTRATION

The review is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42018105744.

The projected burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil from 2021 to 2030

Although studies have quantified the current burden of diseases attributable to overweight and obesity in Brazil, none have estimated its burden in the future. The study aimed to estimate the potential impact of different scenarios of changes in the prevalence of overweight on non-communicable diseases (NCD) in the Brazilian adult population until 2030. We developed a multistate life table model including 11 body mass index (BMI) related diseases to estimate attributable NCDs cases and deaths under the following scenarios of changes in overweight over a 10-year simulation: (1) the continuity of the current trajectory of BMI increases, (2) reducing the rate of increase by half, (3) stopping future BMI increases, and (4) the reduction of the prevalence of overweight by 6.7%. In Brazil, if the current trends of BMI increase are maintained from 2021 to 2030, approximately 5.26 million incident cases and 808.6 thousand deaths from NCDs may occur due to overweight. If the annual increase in overweight was reduced by half until 2030, 1.1% of new NCD cases and 0.2% of deaths could be prevented (respectively, 29,600 cases and 1900 deaths). Alternatively, if the current prevalence of overweight is maintained, as set as a national goal in Brazil until 2030, the incident NCD cases and the deaths could be reduced by respectively 3.3% (92,900) and 1.5% (12,100) compared to continuation of current trends. If the prevalence of overweight is reduced by 6.7% until 2030, 6.5% (182,200) of NCD cases and 4.2% (33,900) of deaths could be prevented. The epidemiologic burden of overweight in Brazil tends to increase if bold policy interventions are not adopted in Brazil.

Forecast of myocardial infarction incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035 using a microsimulation model with endogenous disease outcomes

Background

Models that forecast non-communicable disease rates are poorly designed to predict future changes in trend because they are based on exogenous measures of disease rates. We introduce microPRIME, which forecasts myocardial infarction (MI) incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035. microPRIME can forecast changes in trend as all MI rates emerge from competing trends in risk factors and treatment.

Materials and methods

microPRIME is a microsimulation of MI events within a sample of 114,000 agents representative of England. We simulate 37 annual time points from 1998 to 2035, where agents can have an MI event, die from an MI, or die from an unrelated cause. The probability of each event is a function of age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, diabetes and previous MI. This function does not change over time. Instead population-level changes in MI rates are due to competing trends in risk factors and treatment. Uncertainty estimates are based on 450 model runs that use parameters calibrated against external measures of MI rates between 1999 and 2011.

Findings

Forecasted MI incidence rates fall for men and women of different age groups before plateauing in the mid 2020s. Age-standardised event rates show a similar pattern, with a non-significant upturn by 2035, larger for men than women. Prevalence in men decreases for the oldest age groups, with peaks of prevalence rates in 2019 for 85 and older at 25.8% (23.3–28.3). For women, prevalence rates are more stable. Prevalence in over 85s is estimated as 14.5% (12.6–16.5) in 2019, and then plateaus thereafter.

Conclusion

We may see an increase in event rates from MI in England for men before 2035 but increases for women are unlikely. Prevalence rates may fall in older men, and are likely to remain stable in women over the next decade and a half.

Food-Level Analysis to Identify Dietary Choices With the Highest Nutritional Quality and Lowest Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Price

Introduction

Food systems are challenged to provide healthy, sustainable and affordable foods. From a consumer perspective, identifying healthy, sustainable and affordable choices based on individual food products rather than diets could promote better shopping choices.

Objective

To identify foods and drinks with the highest nutritional quality and lowest greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and price. We also assessed how a combination of these indicators (e.g., nutritional quality, GHGE and price) for food categories aligned with current United Kingdom dietary recommendations.

Materials and Methods

We performed a secondary analysis of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) nutrient databank year 11 (2018/2019). Spearman correlation coefficients were used to assess the strength of relationships between nutritional quality, environmental impact and/or prices per 100 kcal. In addition, we developed an optimized nutritional quality, GHGE and price score for each food or drink item based on the overall medians for each of these indicators.

Results

Median nutritional value was highest for fruit and vegetables, whilst median GHGE and price was lower for starchy carbohydrates, fats and items of which consumption should be limited. The relative proportions of foods considered the most nutritious and with a low GHGE and price in each of the food categories, on a per 100 kcal basis, were comparable to the proportions in the Eatwell Guide, except for the proportion of fruits and vegetables being smaller and the proportion of potatoes, bread, rice, pasta, and other starchy carbohydrates being larger in our analysis.

Conclusion

Public health efforts should consider the impact of dietary choices not only in terms of nutritional quality but also in terms of environmental and economic impact. Our food-based analysis shows a large variation in nutritional quality, GHGE and price within and across food categories, which provides consumers with opportunities for "food swaps" that are more nutritious and have lower GHGE and price.

Impact of the 2003 to 2018 Population Salt Intake Reduction Program in England: A Modeling Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

The United Kingdom was among the first countries to introduce a salt reduction program in 2003 to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence risk. Despite its initial success, the program has stalled recently and is yet to achieve national and international targets. We used age- and sex-stratified salt intake of 19 to 64 years old participants in the National Diet and Nutrition Surveys 2000 to 2018 and a multistate life table model to assess the effects of the voluntary dietary salt reduction program on premature CVD, quality-adjusted survival, and health care and social care costs in England. The program reduced population-level salt intake from 9.38 grams/day per adult (SE, 0.16) in 2000 to 8.38 grams/day per adult (SE, 0.17) in 2018. Compared with a scenario of persistent 2000 levels, assuming that the population-level salt intake is maintained at 2018 values, by 2050, the program is projected to avoid 83 140 (95% CI, 73 710–84 520) premature ischemic heart disease (IHD) cases and 110 730 (95% CI, 98 390–112 260) premature strokes, generating 542 850 (95% CI, 529 020–556 850) extra quality-adjusted life-years and £1640 million (95% CI, £1570–£1660) health care cost savings for the adult population of England. We also projected the gains of achieving the World Health Organization target of 5 grams/day per adult by 2030, which by 2050 would avert further 87 870 (95% CI, 82 050–88 470) premature IHD cases, 126 010 (95% CI, 118 600–126 460) premature strokes and achieve £1260 million (95% CI, £1180–£1260) extra health care savings compared with maintaining 2018 levels. Strengthening the salt reduction program to achieve further reductions in population salt intake and CVD burden should be a high priority.

The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children's exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5-17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%-9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%-7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000-81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000-240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000-530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion-£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose-response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn.

Health impacts and environmental footprints of diets that meet the Eatwell Guide recommendations: analyses of multiple UK studies

OBJECTIVES

To assess the health impacts and environmental consequences of adherence to national dietary recommendations (the Eatwell Guide (EWG)) in the UK.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A secondary analysis of multiple observational studies in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer - Oxford(EPIC-Oxford), UK Biobank and Million Women Study, and adults and children aged 5 and over from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS).Primary and secondary outcome measures risk of total mortality from Cox proportional hazards regression models, total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) and blue water footprint (WF) associated with 'very low' (0-2 recommendations), 'low' (3-4 recommendations) or 'intermediate-to-high' (5-9 recommendations) adherence to EWG recommendations.

RESULTS

Less than 0.1% of the NDNS sample adhere to all nine EWG recommendations and 30.6% adhere to at least five recommendations. Compared with 'very low' adherence to EWG recommendations, 'intermediate-to-high adherence' was associated with a reduced risk of mortality (risk ratio (RR): 0.93; 99% CI: 0.90 to 0.97) and -1.6 kg CO2eq/day (95% CI: -1.5 to -1.8), or 30% lower dietary GHGe. Dietary WFs were similar across EWG adherence groups. Of the individual Eatwell guidelines, adherence to the recommendation on fruit and vegetable consumption was associated with the largest reduction in total mortality risk: an RR of 0.90 (99% CI: 0.88 to 0.93). Increased adherence to the recommendation on red and processed meat consumption was associated with the largest decrease in environmental footprints (-1.48 kg CO2eq/day, 95% CI: -1.79 to 1.18 for GHGe and -22.5 L/day, 95% CI: -22.7 to 22.3 for blue WF).

CONCLUSIONS

The health and environmental benefits of greater adherence to EWG recommendations support increased government efforts to encourage improved diets in the UK that are essential for the health of people and the planet in the Anthropocene.

Changes in dietary patterns when females engage in a weight management programme and their ability to meet Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition’s fibre and sugar recommendations

Objective:

To investigate how dietary patterns (DP) change following engagement in a weight management programme. Using the DP identified, to study their relationship with weight loss achieved and ability to meet the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition’s 2015 fibre and sugar recommendations.

Design:

Secondary analysis of FFQ data, which collected dietary information at two time points: retrospectively before (T0) and presently during (T1) Slimming World’s programme, was analysed. Principal component analysis derived the DP present.

Setting:

Online FFQ, hosted by Slimming World (SW) in the UK.

Participants:

Female SW members (n 325; 17–68 years old).

Results:

At T0, two DP, ‘plant based’ and ‘processed meat and sugar added by the consumer’ were identified. At T1, three DP were identified, ‘high meat’, ‘high fat salt and sugar (HFSS) products’ and ‘nuts and oils’. Participants with a diet low in ‘HFSS products’ lost significantly more weight (P for trend = 0·001), were more likely to consume breakfast (P = 0·021) and consumed less free sugar compared with high ‘HFSS product’ consumers. Those initially presenting with a low ‘plant based’ diet score lost more weight at T1 (P for trend = 0·046). With engagement, mean fibre intake increased from 24·3 to 32·4 g/d (P < 0·001) and free sugar intake decreased from 12·6 to 8·7 % total dietary energy (P < 0·001).

Conclusions:

An individual’s DP before and with engagement in a weight management programme may indicate their weight loss success. Advising reduced HFSS product intake may aid initial weight loss. SW appears to promote dietary changes towards UK fibre and sugar recommendations.

Supporting adherence to the UK's Eatwell Guide in the general public

Sara Patience looks at how improvements to the nation's diet could reduce the impact of chronic illness

Evaluating Public Health Interventions: A Neglected Area in Health Technology Assessment

Introduction: Public health (PH) interventions are crucial for ensuring sustainable healthcare services. Nevertheless, they represent a neglected area in the field of health technology assessment (HTA) due to various methodological issues and their complex design that goes beyond clinical setting. The present study provides an environmental scan of HTA initiatives related to the assessment of PH technologies on a global level.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 85 HTA-related European and international societies, health bodies, and networks from September 2018 to January 2019. The questionnaire contained four sections and 18 questions regarding activities related to the evaluation of PH technologies, information on existing PH technologies, and methodologies of assessment as well as barriers and facilitators to reaching a decision and implementing a PH technology.

Results: Among 52 survey responses, the majority of the respondents came from European countries (35%), followed by North American (27%), and South American (19%) countries. The main type of organizations covered by our survey included HTA agencies, public administrations, and research institutes. Seventy-one % of the institutions reported engagement in any aspect of HTA in the area of PH (N = 37). Among those, 81% evaluated less than 5 PH technologies from 2013 to 2018. The most common barriers for reaching a decision on PH technologies were lack of data, conflicting stakeholder priorities, and methodological issues. A total of 76 PH interventions were reported, and most cited initiatives were related to chronic disease screening, prevention of infectious diseases, and maternal, prenatal, and neonatal screening.

Conclusion: Our survey reported a rather limited involvement of HTA in the evaluation of PH technologies. In particular, an evaluation of behavioral and lifestyle interventions remains extremely rare. The implementation of collaborative HTA approaches in the setting of PH practice and policy needs to be prioritized and further strengthened. Moreover, ensuring reliable data structures and consolidation of HTA methods for the evaluation of PH technologies will be crucial for tackling the enormous burden of non-communicable diseases in societies.

Quantifying the handprint-Footprint balance into a single score: The example of pharmaceuticals

Life Cycle Assessment typically focuses on the footprint of products and services, expressed on three Areas of Protection (AoP): Human Health, Ecosystems and Resources. While the handprint is often expressed qualitatively, quantified handprints have recently been compared directly to the footprint concerning one AoP: Human Health. We propose to take this one step further by simultaneously comparing the quantified handprint and footprint on all AoPs through normalization and weighting of the results towards a single score. We discuss two example cases of a pharmaceutical treatment: mebendazole to treat soil-transmitted helminthiases and paliperidone palmitate to treat schizophrenia. Each time, treatment is compared to 'no treatment'. The footprint of health care is compared to the handprint of improved patient health. The handprint and footprint were normalized separately. To include sensitivity in the normalization step we applied four sets of external normalization factors for both handprint (Global Burden of Disease) and footprint (ReCiPe and PROSUITE). At the weighting step we applied 26 sets of panel weighting factors from three sources. We propose the Relative Sustainability Benefit Rate (RSBR) as a new metric to quantify the relative difference in combined handprint and footprint single score between two alternatives. When only considering the footprint, the first case study is associated with an increased single score burden of treatment compared to 'no treatment', while in the second case study treatment reduces the single score burden by 41.1% compared to 'no treatment'. Also including the handprint provided new insights for the first case study, now showing a decrease of 56.4% in single score burden for treatment compared to 'no treatment'. For the second case study the reduction of single score burden was confirmed as the handprint burden was also decreased because of treatment by 9.9%, reinforcing the findings.

Deciphering the Riddles in Nutrition and Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease is the leading global cause of death in Western countries, and its development is largely associated with unhealthy dietary patterns. A large body of scientific evidence has reported that nutrition might be the most preventive factor of cardiovascular disease death and could even reverse heart disease. Processes of chronic inflammation and oxidative distress share triggers that are modifiable by nutrition. This review aimed to identify potential targets (food patterns, single foods or individual nutrients) for cardiovascular disease prevention, and analyse the mechanisms implicated in their cardioprotective effects.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of salt reformulation and increasing access to leisure centres in England, with PRIMEtime CE model validation using the AdViSHE tool

BACKGROUND

PRIMEtime CE is a multistate life table model that can directly compare the cost effectiveness of public health interventions affecting diet and physical activity levels, helping to inform decisions about how to spend finite resources. This paper estimates the costs and health outcomes in England of two scenarios: reformulating salt and expanding subsidised access to leisure centres. The results are used to help validate PRIMEtime CE, following the steps outlined in the Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models (AdViSHE) tool.

METHODS

The PRIMEtime CE model estimates the difference in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and difference in NHS and social care costs of modelled interventions compared with doing nothing. The salt reformulation scenario models how salt consumption would change if food producers met the 2017 UK Food Standards Agency salt reformulation targets. The leisure centre scenario models change in physical activity levels if the Birmingham Be Active scheme (where swimming pools and gym access is free to residents during defined periods) was rolled out across England. The AdViSHE tool was developed by health economic modellers and divides model validation into five parts: validation of the conceptual model, input data validation, validation of computerised model, operational validation, and other validation techniques. PRIMEtime CE is discussed in relation to each part.

RESULTS

Salt reformulation was dominant compared with doing nothing, and had a 10-year return on investment of £1.44 (£0.50 to £2.94) for every £1 spent. By contrast, over 10 years the Be Active expansion would cost £727,000 (£514,000 to £1,064,000) per QALY. PRIMEtime CE has good face validity of its conceptual model and has robust input data. Cross-validation produces mixed results and shows the impact of model scope, input parameters, and model structure on cost-per-QALY estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper illustrates how PRIMEtime CE can be used to compare the cost-effectiveness of two different public health measures affecting diet and physical activity levels. The AdViSHE tool helps to validate PRIMEtime CE, identifies some of the key drivers of model estimates, and highlights the challenges of externally validating public health economic models against independent data.

PRIMEtime CE: a multistate life table model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of interventions affecting diet and physical activity

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases are the leading cause of death in England, and poor diet and physical inactivity are two of the principle behavioural risk factors. In the context of increasingly constrained financial resources, decision makers in England need to be able to compare the potential costs and health outcomes of different public health policies aimed at improving these risk factors in order to know where to invest so that they can maximise population health. This paper describes PRIMEtime CE, a multistate life table cost-effectiveness model that can directly compare interventions affecting multiple disease outcomes.

METHODS

The multistate life table model, PRIMEtime Cost Effectiveness (PRIMEtime CE), is developed from the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) and the PRIMEtime model. PRIMEtime CE uses routinely available data to estimate how changing diet and physical activity in England affects morbidity and mortality from heart disease, stroke, diabetes, liver disease, and cancers either directly or via raised blood pressure, cholesterol, and body weight.

RESULTS

Model outcomes are change in quality adjusted life years, and change in English National Health Service and social care costs.

CONCLUSION

This paper describes PRIMEtime CE and highlights its main strengths and limitations. The model can be used to compare any number of public policies affecting diet and physical activity, allowing decision makers to understand how they can maximise population health with limited financial resources.

Estimating the potential impact of the UK government's sugar reduction programme on child and adult health: modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of the UK government's sugar reduction programme on child and adult obesity, adult disease burden, and healthcare costs.

DESIGN

Modelling study.

SETTING

Simulated scenario based on National Diet and Nutrition Survey waves 5 and 6, England.

PARTICIPANTS

1508 survey respondents were used to model weight change among the population of England aged 4-80 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Calorie change, weight change, and body mass index change were estimated for children and adults. Impact on non-communicable disease incidence, quality adjusted life years, and healthcare costs were estimated for adults. Changes to disease burden were modelled with the PRIMEtime-CE Model, based on the 2014 population in England aged 18-80.

RESULTS

If the sugar reduction programme was achieved in its entirety and resulted in the planned sugar reduction, then the calorie reduction was estimated to be 25 kcal/day (1 kcal=4.18 kJ=0.00418 MJ) for 4-10 year olds (95% confidence interval 23 to 26), 25 kcal/day (24 to 28) for 11-18 year olds, and 19 kcal/day (17 to 20) for adults. The reduction in obesity could represent 5.5% of the baseline obese population of 4-10 year olds, 2.2% of obese 11-18 year olds, and 5.5% of obese 19-80 year olds. A modelled 51 729 quality adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval 45 768 to 57 242) were saved over 10 years, including 154 550 (132 623 to 174 604) cases of diabetes and relating to a net healthcare saving of £285.8m (€332.5m, $373.5m; £249.7m to £319.8m).

CONCLUSIONS

The UK government's sugar reduction programme could reduce the burden of obesity and obesity related disease, provided that reductions in sugar levels and portion sizes do not prompt unanticipated changes in eating patterns or product formulation.

Modelling the health co-benefits of sustainable diets in the UK, France, Finland, Italy and Sweden

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

It is not known if diets lower in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are also healthier. We evaluated the population health implications of changing to more sustainable diets in the UK, France, Finland, Italy and Sweden.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

We developed a life table model to simulate mortality and morbidity from diet-related diseases over the lifetime of the current population. Populating the model with locally available data for each country, we simulated the impact of country-specific dietary scenarios that had been optimised to meet dietary recommendations and reduce GHG emissions. Outcome measures included a change in disease-specific deaths, life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

RESULTS

Diets that meet nutritional recommendations lead to substantial improvements in population health, ranging from 0.19 (95% uncertainty interval: 0.18-0.21) DALYs per person in Italy up to 0.89 (0.80-0.98) DALYs per person in Finland. Simultaneously reducing GHG emissions does not reduce the size of this impact, and in some cases produces additional health benefits. If sustainable diets can be maintained throughout adulthood, life expectancy would increase by between 2.3 (1.6-3.2) and 6.8 (5.5-8.5) months by country. However, results are sensitive to assumptions about how quickly changes in diet can influence disease, and future trends in disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling the health impact of diets that are both nutritional and low in GHG emissions shows the potential for significant co-benefits in health and sustainability from dietary changes. Future work is needed to find effective interventions to deliver healthy sustainable diets.

Accounting for consumers' preferences in the analysis of dietary recommendations

Background/Objectives

The goal of this article is to present and demonstrate the applicability of an original method to assess the economic and health impacts of compliance with food-based recommendations. The method takes account of consumers’ preferences and the associated adoption cost in the assessment of various recommendations.

Subjects/Methods

We combine an economic model of diet choice with an epidemiological model to compute the health impacts of dietary changes. To demonstrate the use of the method, we analyse the impacts of a 5% variation in the consumption of seven food groups taken separately: a 5% increase in consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and milk products; and a 5% decrease in consumption of red meat, all meats, salty/sweet products, ready meals and butter/cream/cheese.

Results

A recommendation, when adopted by consumers, generates important changes in the whole diet due to substitutions and complementarities among foods. All simulated recommendations have a positive impact on health. The F&V recommendation has the largest impact on the number of DALYs averted, but the highest adoption cost for consumers, especially for low-income consumers. Alone, the change in energy intake explains from 71% to 98% of the DALYs averted induced by a recommendation.

Conclusions

Small increases in recommended foods have the potential of generating relatively significant health gains. Preference-driven substitutions among foods have a major effect on simulated health outcomes and should be included in the assessment of dietary recommendations, together with the adoption cost borne by consumers.

Estimating comparable English healthcare costs for multiple diseases and unrelated future costs for use in health and public health economic modelling

OBJECTIVES

Healthcare interventions, and particularly those in public health may affect multiple diseases and significantly prolong life. No consensus currently exists for how to estimate comparable healthcare costs across multiple diseases for use in health and public health cost-effectiveness models. We aim to describe a method for estimating comparable disease specific English healthcare costs as well as future healthcare costs from diseases unrelated to those modelled.

METHODS

We use routine national datasets including programme budgeting data and cost curves from NHS England to estimate annual per person costs for diseases included in the PRIMEtime model as well as age and sex specific costs due to unrelated diseases.

RESULTS

The 2013/14 annual cost to NHS England per prevalent case varied between £3,074 for pancreatic cancer and £314 for liver disease. Costs due to unrelated diseases increase with age except for a secondary peak at 30-34 years for women reflecting maternity resource use.

CONCLUSIONS

The methodology described allows health and public health economic modellers to estimate comparable English healthcare costs for multiple diseases. This facilitates the direct comparison of different health and public health interventions enabling better decision making.

Protein for Life: Review of Optimal Protein Intake, Sustainable Dietary Sources and the Effect on Appetite in Ageing Adults

With an ageing population, dietary approaches to promote health and independence later in life are needed. In part, this can be achieved by maintaining muscle mass and strength as people age. New evidence suggests that current dietary recommendations for protein intake may be insufficient to achieve this goal and that individuals might benefit by increasing their intake and frequency of consumption of high-quality protein. However, the environmental effects of increasing animal-protein production are a concern, and alternative, more sustainable protein sources should be considered. Protein is known to be more satiating than other macronutrients, and it is unclear whether diets high in plant proteins affect the appetite of older adults as they should be recommended for individuals at risk of malnutrition. The review considers the protein needs of an ageing population (>40 years old), sustainable protein sources, appetite-related implications of diets high in plant proteins, and related areas for future research.

What can the food and drink industry do to help achieve the 5% free sugars goal?

AIMS

To contribute evidence and make recommendations to assist in achieving free sugars reduction, with due consideration to the broader picture of weight management and dietary quality.

METHODS

An expert workshop in July 2016 addressed options outlined in the Public Health England report 'Sugar reduction: The evidence for action' that related directly to the food industry. Panel members contributed expertise in food technology, public heath nutrition, marketing, communications, psychology and behaviour. Recommendations were directed towards reformulation, reduced portion sizes, labelling and consumer education. These were evaluated based on their feasibility, likely consumer acceptability, efficacy and cost.

RESULTS

The panel agreed that the 5% target for energy from free sugars is unlikely to be achievable by the UK population in the near future, but a gradual reduction from average current level of intake is feasible. Progress requires collaborations between government, food industry, non-government organisations, health professionals, educators and consumers. Reformulation should start with the main contributors of free sugars in the diet, prioritising those products high in free sugars and relatively low in micronutrients. There is most potential for replacing free sugars in beverages using high-potency sweeteners and possibly via gradual reduction in sweetness levels. However, reformulation alone, with its inherent practical difficulties, will not achieve the desired reduction in free sugars. Food manufacturers and the out-of-home sector can help consumers by providing smaller portions. Labelling of free sugars would extend choice and encourage reformulation; however, government needs to assist industry by addressing current analytical and regulatory problems. There are also opportunities for multi-agency collaboration to develop tools/communications based on the Eatwell Guide, to help consumers understand the principles of a varied, healthy, balanced diet.

CONCLUSION

Multiple strategies will be required to achieve a reduction in free sugars intake to attain the 5% energy target. The panel produced consensus statements with recommendations as to how this might be achieved.

UK Dietary Policy for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease

Nutrition advice is devolved within each of the four UK countries, but share a common evidence base provided through the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN). Current UK dietary recommendations to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) is based upon recommendations from SACN and its predecessor committee. Dietary advice in the UK has recently been revised in relation to intakes of free sugar and fibre. This paper highlights current UK recommendations for the prevention of CVD, in particular related to energy intake, saturated fat, free sugars, salt, fruit, vegetables, oily fish and fibre. It describes how this advice is promulgated including the refresh of the Eatwell Guide and wider action that will impact on CVD.