Influenza seasonality and vaccination timing in tropical and subtropical areas of southern and south-eastern Asia

HA antigenic variation and phylogenetic analysis of influenza B virus in Shiraz, Iran

BACKGROUND

Influenza infection is highly contagious respiratory illness triggered by the influenza virus, bearing substantial implications for global health. Influenza B viruses, specifically the Victoria and Yamagata lineages, have contributed to the disease burden, and the mismatch between circulating strains and vaccine strains has led to increased mortality and economic costs. Understanding the global epidemiology, seasonal variations, and genetic characteristics of influenza B is crucial for effective prevention and control strategies.

METHODS

The study investigated influenza B viruses in Shiraz, Iran during the Oct 2017 to Jan 2018. Throat swabs were collected from 235 individuals under 15 with influenza-like symptoms including fever and cough. Samples were stored at -80°C and transported to the lab for further analysis. Viral RNA was extracted and analyzed using Real-time PCR. The hemagglutinin (HA) gene of positive samples was sequenced, and phylogenetic trees were constructed. Amino acids indicative of adaptive mutations were identified using global sequence data.

RESULTS

23 of 235 samples (9.7 %) were positive for influenza B virus. The most common clinical manifestations were rhinorrhea and myalgia, with 20 individuals (87 % of the 23 infected people) each showing these symptoms. The phylogenetic analysis of the HA gene showed that the Victoria isolates were close to the B/Brisbane/60/2008 strain (12.5 % of the positive samples) and belonged to clade-1A, while the Yamagata isolates were close to the B/Phuket/3037/2013 strain (87.5 % of the positive samples) and belonged to clade-3.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights the need for importance vaccine coverage in the Shiraz region to address limited genetic diversity and strain mismatch. Continuous surveillance of mutations in the HA gene resulting in amino acid substitutions and their impact on vaccine efficacy is crucial. This study showed that the circulation of influenza B in Shiraz matched with the recommended Yamagata vaccine strain. These findings contribute to the understanding of influenza B dynamics and emphasize the importance of region-specific prevention and control strategies.

Epidemiologic and Virologic Characteristics of Influenza in Lao PDR, 2016-2023

BACKGROUND

Influenza sentinel surveillance in Lao PDR is used to inform seasonal vaccination programs. This analysis reviews epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza virus infection over 8 years, before and after emergence of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Data collected for ILI and SARI surveillance during January 2016 through December 2023 were analyzed from nine hospitals. Respiratory specimens from ILI and SARI cases were tested by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction to determine influenza positivity and subtype and lineage. Aggregate counts of outpatient visits and hospitalizations were collected from hospital logbooks. Epidemiologic trends of influenza activity were described, and the proportional contribution of influenza-associated ILI and SARI to outpatient and inpatient loads was estimated.

RESULTS

Influenza was detected year-round with positivity peaking during September through January and occurring in most years approximately 1 month earlier in the south than the north. After decreasing in 2 years following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza positivity increased in 2022 and resumed its typical temporal trend. Influenza-associated ILI contribution to outpatient visits was highest among children ages 5-14 years (3.0% of all outpatient visits in 2023), and influenza-associated SARI contribution to inpatient hospitalizations was highest among children ages 2-4 years (2.2% of all hospitalizations in 2023).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza surveillance in Lao PDR provides clinicians and public health authorities with information on geographic and temporal patterns of influenza transmission. Influenza surveillance data support current vaccination timing and recommendations to vaccinate certain populations, especially young children.

Incidence of influenza virus-associated Severe Acute Respiratory Infections in three districts in 2018 at Gharbia governorate, Egypt

AIMS

Influenza remains a contributor to substantial global morbidity and mortality. There is very limited data on disease burden in Egypt. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of influenza-associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) in three districts in Gharbia governorate in 2018.

METHODS

This study Followed the World Health Organization (WHO) manual for estimating disease burden associated with seasonal influenza. The hospital admission database was screened for SARI patients in three districts at Gharbia governorate in 2018. A hospital admission survey (HAS) was used to define the catchment population. The incidence rate estimation was computed as the number of influenza-positive SARI cases per 100,000 population.

RESULTS

A total of 180 SARI cases were identified in the catchment area. The median age was 23 years [IQR: 2-53], and 45% were males. Out of the total SARI cases, 33.3% influenza was confirmed by the laboratory test of RP-PCR. Influenza A(H3N2) virus predominated representing 55.0% of patients, thanA(H1N1) 26.7% and Flu-B virus 18.3%. Influenza prevailed in winter and spring; no deaths from influenza were reported. The annual incidence of influenza-associated SARIs found higher in <2 years (282 /100,000) and ≥65 years patients (215/100,000) at significant level p<0.001.

CONCLUSION

The WHO Manual for estimating disease burden associated with seasonal influenza was successfully operationalized in the three districts of Gharbia governorate. It can be used in other districts. A considerable burden was associated with influenza viruses requiring hospitalization, especially among the older adult group.

Predictors of Severity of Influenza-Related Hospitalizations: Results From the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN)

BACKGROUND

The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network (GIHSN) has since 2012 provided patient-level data on severe influenza-like-illnesses from >100 participating clinical sites worldwide based on a core protocol and consistent case definitions.

METHODS

We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the risk of intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital death among hospitalized patients with influenza and explored the role of patient-level covariates and country income level.

RESULTS

The data set included 73 121 patients hospitalized with respiratory illness in 22 countries, including 15 660 with laboratory-confirmed influenza. After adjusting for patient-level covariates we found a 7-fold increase in the risk of influenza-related intensive care unit admission in lower middle-income countries (LMICs), compared with high-income countries (P = .01). The risk of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death also increased by 4-fold in LMICs, though these differences were not statistically significant. We also find that influenza mortality increased significantly with older age and number of comorbid conditions. Across all severity outcomes studied and after controlling for patient characteristics, infection with influenza A/H1N1pdm09 was more severe than with A/H3N2.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides new information on influenza severity in underresourced populations, particularly those in LMICs.

Cross-sectional study of influenza trends and costs in Malaysia between 2016 and 2018

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

While influenza circulates year-round in Malaysia, research data on its incidence is scarce. Yet, this information is vital to the improvement of public health through evidence-based policies. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to determine the trends and financial costs of influenza.

METHODS

Data for the years 2016 through 2018 were gathered retrospectively from several sources. These were existing Ministry of Health (MOH) influenza sentinel sites data, two teaching hospitals, and two private medical institutions in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. Expert consensus determined the final estimates of burden for laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). Economic burden was estimated separately using secondary data supplemented by MOH casemix costing.

RESULTS

Altogether, data for 11,652 cases of ILI and 5,764 cases of SARI were extracted. The influenza B subtype was found to be predominant in 2016, while influenza A was more prevalent in 2017 and 2018. The distribution timeline revealed that the highest frequency of cases occurred in March and April of all three years. The costs of influenza amounted to MYR 310.9 million over the full three-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides valuable insights into the dynamic landscape of influenza in Malaysia. The findings reveal a consistent year-round presence of influenza with irregular seasonal peaks, including a notable influenza A epidemic in 2017 and consistent surges in influenza B incidence during March across three years. These findings underscore the significance of continuous monitoring influenza subtypes for informed healthcare strategies as well as advocate for the integration of influenza vaccination into Malaysia's national immunization program, enhancing overall pandemic preparedness.

Influenza and Viral Pneumonia

Influenza and other respiratory viruses are commonly identified in patients with community-acquired pneumonia, hospital-acquired pneumonia, and in immunocompromised patients with pneumonia. Clinically, it is difficult to differentiate viral from bacterial pneumonia. Similarly, the radiological findings of viral infection are in general nonspecific. The advent of polymerase chain reaction testing has enormously facilitated the identification of respiratory viruses, which has important implications for infection control measures and treatment. Currently, treatment options for patients with viral infection are limited but there is ongoing research on the development and clinical testing of new treatment regimens and strategies.

Nowcasting and Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics - China, 2022-2023

Background

Seasonal influenza resurged in China in February 2023, causing a large number of hospitalizations. While influenza epidemics occurred across China during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures in December 2022 may have contributed to the spread of acute respiratory infections in winter 2022/2023.

Methods

Using a mathematical model incorporating influenza activity as measured by influenza-like illness (ILI) data for northern and southern regions of China, we reconstructed the seasonal influenza incidence from October 2015 to September 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this trained model, we predicted influenza activities in northern and southern China from March to September 2023.

Results

We estimated the effective reproduction number R e as 1.08 [95% confidence interval ( CI): 0.51, 1.65] in northern China and 1.10 (95% CI: 0.55, 1.67) in southern China at the start of the 2022-2023 influenza season. We estimated the infection attack rate of this influenza wave as 18.51% (95% CI: 0.00%, 37.78%) in northern China and 28.30% (95% CI: 14.77%, 41.82%) in southern China.

Conclusions

The 2023 spring wave of seasonal influenza in China spread until July 2023 and infected a substantial number of people.

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics

INTRODUCTION

It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

METHODS

We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.

RESULTS

During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

Influenza: seasonality and travel-related considerations

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

This review aims to summarize the transmission patterns of influenza, its seasonality in different parts of the globe, air travel- and cruise ship-related influenza infections and interventions to reduce transmission.

KEY FINDINGS

The seasonality of influenza varies globally, with peak periods occurring mainly between October and April in the northern hemisphere (NH) and between April and October in the southern hemisphere (SH) in temperate climate zones. However, influenza seasonality is significantly more variable in the tropics. Influenza is one of the most common travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases and can be contracted during travel, such as during a cruise or through air travel. Additionally, travellers can come into contact with people from regions with ongoing influenza transmission. Current influenza immunization schedules in the NH and SH leave individuals susceptible during their respective spring and summer months if they travel to the other hemisphere during that time.

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS

The differences in influenza seasonality between hemispheres have substantial implications for the effectiveness of influenza vaccination of travellers. Health care providers should be aware of influenza activity when patients report travel plans, and they should provide alerts and advise on prevention, diagnostic and treatment options. To mitigate the risk of travel-related influenza, interventions include antivirals for self-treatment (in combination with the use of rapid self-tests), extending the shelf life of influenza vaccines to enable immunization during the summer months for international travellers and allowing access to the influenza vaccine used in the opposite hemisphere as a travel-related vaccine. With the currently available vaccines, the most important preventive measure involves optimizing the seasonal influenza vaccination. It is also imperative that influenza is recognized as a travel-related illness among both travellers and health care professionals.

The impact of current and future climates on spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in a tropical setting

Although the drivers of influenza have been well studied in high-income settings in temperate regions, many open questions remain about the burden, seasonality, and drivers of influenza dynamics in the tropics. In temperate climates, the inverse relationship between specific humidity and transmission can explain much of the observed temporal and spatial patterns of influenza outbreaks. Yet, this relationship fails to explain seasonality, or lack there-of, in tropical and subtropical countries. Here, we analyzed eight years of influenza surveillance data from 12 locations in Bangladesh to quantify the role of climate in driving disease dynamics in a tropical setting with a distinct rainy season. We find strong evidence for a nonlinear bimodal relationship between specific humidity and influenza transmission in Bangladesh, with highest transmission occurring for relatively low and high specific humidity values. We simulated influenza burden under current and future climate in Bangladesh using a mathematical model with a bimodal relationship between humidity and transmission, and decreased transmission at very high temperatures, while accounting for changes in population immunity. The climate-driven mechanistic model can accurately capture both the temporal and spatial variation in influenza activity observed across Bangladesh, highlighting the usefulness of mechanistic models for low-income countries with inadequate surveillance. By using climate model projections, we also highlight the potential impact of climate change on influenza dynamics in the tropics and the public health consequences.

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Much of the world experiences influenza in yearly recurring seasons, particularly in temperate areas. These patterns can be considered repeatable if they occur predictably and consistently at the same time of year. In tropical areas, including southeast Asia, timing of influenza epidemics is less consistent, leading to a lack of consensus regarding whether influenza is repeatable. This study aimed to assess repeatability of influenza in Vietnam, with repeatability defined as seasonality that occurs at a consistent time of year with low variation. We developed a mathematical model incorporating parameters to represent periods of increased transmission and then fitted the model to data collected from sentinel hospitals throughout Vietnam as well as four temperate locations. We fitted the model for individual (sub)types of influenza as well as all combined influenza throughout northern, central, and southern Vietnam. Repeatability was evaluated through the variance of the timings of peak transmission. Model fits from Vietnam show high variance (sd = 64-179 days) in peak transmission timing, with peaks occurring at irregular intervals and throughout different times of year. Fits from temperate locations showed regular, annual epidemics in winter months, with low variance in peak timings (sd = 32-57 days). This suggests that influenza patterns are not repeatable or seasonal in Vietnam. Influenza prevention in Vietnam therefore cannot rely on anticipation of regularly occurring outbreaks.

A case report of Vibrio vulnificus sepsis in a diabetic patient

Vibrio vulnificus is a facultative anaerobic, alkalophilic, halophilic, mesophilic, Gram-negative bacterium that can cause severe wound infection, sepsis and diarrhea. This paper reported a case of 85-year-old male patient infected with Vibrio vulnificus due to being stabbed by a sea shrimp. This patient also had diabetes with a long history of alcoholism. Due to bacterial pathogenicity and the patient's underlying diseases, his condition deteriorated rapidly. Based on the rapid diagnosis of Vibrio vulnificus using the next-generation sequencing（NGS）technology and blood culture method, as well as the selection of the most effective antibiotics via drug sensitivity test, this patient underwent precise antimicrobial treatment, thorough debridement and drainage within the shortest possible time, and thus the prognosis of this patient was greatly improved. In this paper, we have systematically explored the epidemiology, clinical features, diagnosis and treatment of Vibrio vulnificus infection, thus providing a practical reference for the clinicians to quickly identify and treat possible Vibrio vulnificus infection in diabetic patients after contacting with sea water or seafood.

Determining meteorologically-favorable zones for seasonal influenza activity in Hong Kong

Investigations of simple and accurate meteorology classification systems for influenza epidemics, particularly in subtropical regions, are limited. To assist in preparing for potential upsurges in the demand on healthcare facilities during influenza seasons, our study aims to develop a set of meteorologically-favorable zones for epidemics of influenza A and B, defined as the intervals of meteorological variables with prediction performance optimized. We collected weekly detection rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases from four local major hospitals in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2019. Meteorological and air quality records for hospitals were collected from their closest monitoring stations. We employed classification and regression trees to identify zones that optimize the prediction performance of meteorological data in influenza epidemics, defined as a weekly rate > 50^th percentile over a year. According to the results, a combination of temperature > 25.1℃ and relative humidity > 79% was favorable to epidemics in hot seasons, whereas either temperature < 16.4℃ or a combination of < 20.4℃ and relative humidity > 76% was favorable to epidemics in cold seasons. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in model training achieved 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.83) and was kept at 0.71 (95%CI, 0.65-0.77) in validation. The meteorologically-favorable zones for predicting influenza A or A and B epidemics together were similar, but the AUC for predicting influenza B epidemics was comparatively lower. In conclusion, we established meteorologically-favorable zones for influenza A and B epidemics with a satisfactory prediction performance, even though the influenza seasonality in this subtropical setting was weak and type-specific.

A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics

Background

It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics remains elusive. In this study, we aimed to characterize the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam.

Methods

We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodicities in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodicities to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.

Findings

During ten years of community surveillance, 66,799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI: 8.8%-9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC = 183) compared to all annual covariates (ΔAIC = 263). Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent along in time or across influenza (sub)types.

Interpretation

Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach.

Whole-Genome Analysis of Influenza A(H3N2) and B/Victoria Viruses Detected in Myanmar during the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2021

An influenza circulation was observed in Myanmar between October and November in 2021. Patients with symptoms of influenza-like illness were screened using rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits, and 147/414 (35.5%) upper respiratory tract specimens presented positive results. All RDT-positive samples were screened by a commercial multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay, and 30 samples positive for influenza A(H3N2) or B underwent further typing/subtyping for cycle threshold (Ct) value determination based on cycling probe RT-PCR. The majority of subtyped samples (n = 13) were influenza A(H3N2), while only three were B/Victoria. Clinical samples with low Ct values obtained by RT-PCR were used for whole-genome sequencing via next-generation sequencing technology. All collected viruses were distinct from the Southern Hemisphere vaccine strains of the corresponding season but matched with vaccines of the following season. Influenza A(H3N2) strains from Myanmar belonged to clade 2a.3 and shared the highest genetic proximity with Bahraini strains. B/Victoria viruses belonged to clade V1A.3a.2 and were genetically similar to Bangladeshi strains. This study highlights the importance of performing influenza virus surveillance with genetic characterization of the influenza virus in Myanmar, to contribute to global influenza surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Whole-Genome Influenza A/H3N2 Viruses Isolated in Myanmar from 2015 to 2019

This study aimed to analyze the genetic and evolutionary characteristics of the influenza A/H3N2 viruses circulating in Myanmar from 2015 to 2019. Whole genomes from 79 virus isolates were amplified using real-time polymerase chain reaction and successfully sequenced using the Illumina iSeq100 platforms. Eight individual phylogenetic trees were retrieved for each segment along with those of the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended Southern Hemisphere vaccine strains for the respective years. Based on the WHO clades classification, the A/H3N2 strains in Myanmar from 2015 to 2019 collectively belonged to clade 3c.2. These strains were further defined based on hemagglutinin substitutions as follows: clade 3C.2a (n = 39), 3C.2a1 (n = 2), and 3C.2a1b (n = 38). Genetic analysis revealed that the Myanmar strains differed from the Southern Hemisphere vaccine strains each year, indicating that the vaccine strains did not match the circulating strains. The highest rates of nucleotide substitution were estimated for hemagglutinin (3.37 × 10^-3 substitutions/site/year) and neuraminidase (2.89 × 10^-3 substitutions/site/year). The lowest rate was for non-structural protein segments (4.19 × 10^-5 substitutions/site/year). The substantial genetic diversity that was revealed improved phylogenetic classification. This information will be particularly relevant for improving vaccine strain selection.

Characterization of influenza infection in a high-income urban setting in Nairobi, Kenya

Background

Influenza viruses are an important cause of respiratory infections across all age groups. Information on occurrence and magnitude of influenza virus infections in different populations in Kenya however remains scanty, compromising estimation of influenza disease burden. This study examined influenza infection in an urban high-income setting in Nairobi to establish its prevalence and activity of influenza viruses, and evaluated diagnostic performance of a rapid influenza diagnostic test.

Methodology

A cross-sectional hospital-based study was conducted in six private health facilities located within high-income residential areas in Nairobi from January 2019 to July 2020. Patients of all ages presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) were recruited into the study. Detection of influenza virus was conducted using rapid diagnosis and reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR). Data were summarized using descriptive statistics and tests of association. Sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated to establish diagnostic accuracy of the rapid diagnosis test.

Results

The study recruited 125 participants with signs and symptoms of ILI, of whom 21 (16.8%) were positive for influenza viruses. Of all the influenza-positive cases, 17 (81.0%) were influenza type A of which 70.6% were pandemic H1N1 (A/H1N1 2009). Highest detection was observed among children aged 5–10 years. Influenza virus mostly circulated during the second half of the year, and fever, general fatigue and muscular and joint pain were significantly observed among participants with influenza virus. Sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test was 95% (95% confidence interval 75.1–99.9) and 100% (95% confidence interval 96.5–100.0), respectively.

Conclusions

Findings of this study shows continuous but variable activity of influenza virus throughout the year in this population, with substantial disease burden. The findings highlight the need for continuous epidemiologic surveillance including genetic surveillance to monitor activity and generate data to inform vaccine introduction or development, and other interventions.

The Immunogenicity and Safety of Influenza Vaccines among Indonesian Older adult

BACKGROUND: Immunosenescence, frailty, sarcopenia, and Vitamin D deficiency were thought of having a negative influence on adequate immune response following vaccination. Epidemiological data related to influenza vaccination and its immunogenicity and safety in Indonesia are still scarce. AIM: This study aimed to assess the immunogenicity and safety of the influenza vaccine in older adults in Indonesia and common related conditions. METHODS: This study was a one-group, pre-test, post-test, quasi-experimental study. The vaccine used was a trivalent type. Immunogenicity was assessed according to rate of seropositivity and seroconversion based on hemagglutination inhibition antibody titer. Immunization safety was assessed according to adverse events following immunization (AEFI). RESULTS: A total of 227 subjects were involved in this study. Antibody titers were significantly increased after 28-day influenza vaccination for all strains (p < 0.001). Seropositive rate in 28-day post-vaccination for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and influenza B was 98.7%, 99.1%, and 97.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, the seroconversion rate for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and influenza B strains was 54.2%, 66.1%, and 60.4%, respectively. The conditions of the frailty status, sarcopenia, and Vitamin D level were not associated with either seroconversion or seropositive status, both at baseline and endpoint. AEFI was occurred on seven subjects (3.08%) with pain at the injection site and one subject (0.44%) with arm tenderness. CONCLUSION: Influenza vaccination showed adequate immune response and safety regardless of the frailty status, sarcopenia, or Vitamin D level. This result strengthened the importance of influenza vaccine administration in Indonesia older adults.

The Epidemiological Pattern and Co-infection of Influenza A and B by Surveillance Network From 2009 to 2014 in Anhui Province, China

Influenza-like illness (ILI) is one of the most important public health problems globally, causing an enormous disease burden. Influenza infections are the most common cause of ILI. Bacterial and virus co-infection is common yet the data of co-infection with influenza A and B viruses are scarce. To identify the epidemiological patterns of and co-infection of influenza A and B in Anhui province, China, we analyzed the surveillance data of 5 years from 2009 to 2014 collected by the Chinese National influenzas network. The results showed that the weekly ratio of ILI was 3.96 ± 1.9% (95% CI 3.73–4.2%) in outpatients and the highest affected population was children under 5 years old. The epidemic of influenza viruses was highest during 2009–2010. For the other 4 surveillance years, school-aged people (5–14 years) were the most highly affected population. Influenza B and H3N2 viruses were more prevalent than H1N1pdm09 virus after 2010. In addition, a significant co-circulation of influenza A (H1N1pdm09 and H3N2) and influenza B virus was detected with 0.057% PCR positive rate during 2009–2014 in Eastern China, yet isolated only in pediatric patients. Our data reveals school-aged population would be the main vulnerable population and a distinct seasonality for influenza. In addition, the co-infection of influenza A and B were found in Anhui Province, China. Ongoing surveillance is critical to understand the seasonality variation and make evidence-based vaccination recommendations. Information on the epidemiological patterns and co-infections of influenza A and B can help us to implement different strategies for selecting vaccine formulations and monitoring new emerging influenza strains. In addition, the identification of the susceptible population can help us to develop more precise protection measures.

Global patterns of seasonal influenza activity, duration of activity and virus (sub)type circulation from 2010 to 2020

Background

Seasonal influenza viruses undergo unpredictable changes, which may lead to antigenic mismatch between circulating and vaccine strains and to a reduced vaccine effectiveness. A continuously updated knowledge of influenza strain circulation and seasonality is essential to optimize the effectiveness of influenza vaccination campaigns. We described the global epidemiology of influenza between the 2009 A(H1N1)p and the 2020 COVID‐19 pandemic.

Methods

Influenza virological surveillance data were obtained from the WHO‐FluNet database. We determined the median proportion of influenza cases caused by the different influenza virus types, subtypes, and lineages; the typical timing of the epidemic peak; and the median duration of influenza epidemics (applying the annual average percentage method with a 75% threshold).

Results

We included over 4.6 million influenza cases from 149 countries. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by type A viruses was 75.5%, highest in the Southern hemisphere (81.6%) and lowest in the intertropical belt (73.0%), and ranged across seasons between 60.9% in 2017 and 88.7% in 2018. Epidemic peaks typically occurred during winter months in Northern and Southern hemisphere countries, while much more variability emerged in tropical countries. Influenza epidemics lasted a median of 25 weeks (range 8–42) in countries lying between 30°N and 26°S, and a median of 9 weeks (range 5–25) in countries outside this latitude range.

Conclusions

This work will establish an important baseline to better understand factors that influence seasonal influenza dynamics and how COVID‐19 may have affected seasonal activity and influenza virus types, subtypes, and lineages circulation patterns.

Downregulation of calcium-regulated heat stable protein 1 expression by low-temperature stimulation causes reduction of interferon-β expression and sensitivity to influenza viral infection

Influenza is prevalent in temperate countries during winter when the environment is dry and cold; however, in tropical and subtropical countries, it is prevalent during the hot, humid rainy season. Thus, temperature and humidity conditions affect influenza outbreaks in different climates. Although the reason for this may be related to host conditions and the conditions under which the virus can survive, it is difficult to analyze changes in host viral responses owing to environmental changes at the cellular level. In the current study, to find candidate genes related with temperature, we analyzed the effects of low-temperature stimulation on influenza virus infection using immortalized respiratory cell lines with the same genetic background established in our laboratory. Although two cell lines with different immune response strengths exhibited enhancement of influenza virus replication following low-temperature stimulation, the mechanisms and degrees were different. In cell lines that showed greater changes, promotion of viral replication was found to involve genes related to temperature, including TRPM2 and CARHSP1. In particular, CARHSP1 expression was decreased by low-temperature stimulation in several respiratory cell lines. In knockdown experiments, because reduction of interferon-β production and sensitivity were observed, the decline may create an environment in which the initial infection cannot be controlled. This procedure may be effective for identifying candidate genes related to the host/viral responses to changes in temperature, and these results can help elucidate the relationships of temperature, humidity, and host responses with viral infection.

SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus coinfection among patients with severe acute respiratory infection during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh: a hospital-based descriptive study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus coinfection among severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases-patients during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.

DESIGN

Descriptive study.

SETTING

Nine tertiary level hospitals across Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients admitted as SARI (defined as cases with subjective or measured fever of ≥38 C° and cough with onset within the last 10 days and requiring hospital admission) case-patients.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus coinfection and proportion of mortality among SARI case-patients.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1986 SARI case-patients with a median age: 28 years (IQR: 1.2-53 years), and 67.6% were male. Among them, 285 (14.3%) were infected with SARS-CoV-2; 175 (8.8%) were infected with the influenza virus, and five (0.3%) were coinfected with both viruses. There was a non-appearance of influenza during the usual peak season (May to July) in Bangladesh. SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly more associated with diabetes (14.0% vs 5.9%, p<0.001) and hypertension (26.7% vs 11.5%, p<0.001). But influenza among SARI case-patients was significantly less associated with diabetes (4.0% vs 7.4%, p=0.047) and hypertension (5.7% vs 14.4%, p=0.001). The proportion of in-hospital deaths among SARS-CoV-2 infected SARI case-patients were higher (10.9% (n=31) vs 4.4% (n=75), p<0.001) than those without SARS-CoV-2 infection; the proportion of postdischarge deaths within 30 days was also higher (9.1% (n=25) vs 4.6% (n=74), p=0.001) among SARS-CoV-2 infected SARI case-patients than those without infection. No in-hospital mortality or postdischarge mortality was registered among the five coinfected SARI case-patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that coinfection with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus was not very common and had less disease severity considering mortality in Bangladesh. There was no circulating influenza virus during the influenza peak season during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Future studies are warranted for further exploration.

Feasibility of age- and gestation-based routine universal influenza vaccines schedules for children aged 6 months - 2 years and pregnant women

BACKGROUND

Hong Kong's seasonal influenza schedule follows the World Health Organization's northern hemisphere vaccine composition recommendations but with year-round influenza activity there is the potential to implement routine age- and gestation-based schedules utilising both northern and southern hemisphere vaccines for children aged 6 months to 2 years and for pregnant women. This study assessed the potential feasibility of such schedules.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted and in-depth interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses were undertaken.

RESULTS

The following schedules were proposed and assessed for perceived feasibility: 1) a four-dose schedule in the first two years of life requiring an additional unscheduled clinic visit at 7 months; 2) a three-dose schedule excluding the 4-week booster after the first dose; 3) a two-dose schedule for pregnant women involving a dose at the booking visit and a dose with pertussis vaccine at 7 months gestation; and 4) a one-dose schedule at 7 months gestation.

CONCLUSIONS

Age- and gestation-based routine influenza vaccination schedules are theoretically feasible for both young children and pregnant women. The three-dose paediatric and one-dose obstetric schedules were assessed in interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses to be most acceptable. Further clinical studies are required to determine whether such schedules are non-inferior to current seasonal-based schedules in terms of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine uptake.

Respiratory viruses associated with severe mechanically ventilated pneumonia in children

The burden of pneumonia, especially that caused by respiratory viruses, is markedly high in the pediatric age group. This study aimed to assess viral agents causing severe pneumonia among mechanically ventilated patients. Nonbronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage was performed for pediatric patients having severe pneumonia indicated for mechanical ventilation to be tested with a multiplex PCR immediate diagnosis of their etiologic pathogen. Among the 75 patients recruited, viral agents were detected in 73.4% of cases. Rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were the most common viruses detected in 32.1% and 29.5%, respectively. The rate of viral infection showed a clear increased incidence in the winter season. The mortality rate among viral‐associated severe pneumonia reached 56.36%. Odds of mortality increased threefolds in presence of comorbid conditions and 10‐folds with congenital heart disease. The study demonstrated the neglected importance of rhinovirus besides RSV in causing severe critical pneumonia in the pediatric age.

Modelling monthly influenza cases in Malaysia

The increasing trend in the number new cases of influenza every year as reported by WHO is concerning, especially in Malaysia. To date, there is no local research under healthcare sector that implements the time series forecasting methods to predict future disease outbreak in Malaysia, specifically influenza. Addressing the problem could increase awareness of the disease and could help healthcare workers to be more prepared in preventing the widespread of the disease. This paper intends to perform a hybrid ARIMA-SVR approach in forecasting monthly influenza cases in Malaysia. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model (using Box-Jenkins method) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model were used to capture the linear and nonlinear components in the monthly influenza cases, respectively. It was forecasted that the performance of the hybrid model would improve. The data from World Health Organization (WHO) websites consisting of weekly Influenza Serology A cases in Malaysia from the year 2006 until 2019 have been used for this study. The data were recategorized into monthly data. The findings of the study showed that the monthly influenza cases could be efficiently forecasted using three comparator models as all models outperformed the benchmark model (Naïve model). However, SVR with linear kernel produced the lowest values of RMSE and MAE for the test dataset suggesting the best performance out of the other comparators. This suggested that SVR has the potential to produce more consistent results in forecasting future values when compared with ARIMA and the ARIMA-SVR hybrid model.

Correlations between control of COVID-19 transmission and influenza occurrences in Malaysia

OBJECTIVES

The transmission of COVID-19 has sent Malaysia into cycles of tightening and relaxation of movement control, which are still continuing currently in line with local fluctuations of new COVID-19 cases. During movement control, measures comprising physical distancing, hand cleaning or sanitizing, and sanitization of premises are consistently implemented while self-isolation and travel restrictions are adaptively enforced. This study aims to examine if the control of COVID-19 transmission has an effect on the national influenza occurrences as some measures for COVID-19 control are similar to those for influenza.

STUDY DESIGN

For this study, data of weekly new cases of influenza and COVID-19 were obtained from official platforms for non-parametric statistical analysis.

METHODS

This study compared the influenza occurrences before and after the onset of COVID-19 using the Mann-Whitney U-test and explored Spearman's correlations between COVID-19 and influenza incidences after the onset of COVID-19.

RESULTS

It shows that influenza incidences before and after the onset of COVID-19 were significantly different and that influenza cases have significantly reduced after the onset of COVID-19. The weekly cases of influenza and COVID-19 were significantly and negatively correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the co-benefits of COVID-19 control measures and alleviates the concern for the risk of COVID-19 and influenza co-infection.

Influenza in Malaysian adult patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia, acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma: a multicenter, active surveillance study

Background

Available data on influenza burden across Southeast Asia are largely limited to pediatric populations, with inconsistent findings.

Methods

We conducted a multicenter, hospital-based active surveillance study of adults in Malaysia with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and acute exacerbation of asthma (AEBA), who had influenza-like illness ≤10 days before hospitalization. We estimated the rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza and associated complications over 13 months (July 2018–August 2019) and described the distribution of causative influenza strains. We evaluated predictors of laboratory-confirmed influenza and severe clinical outcomes using multivariate analysis.

Results

Of 1106 included patients, 114 (10.3%) were influenza-positive; most were influenza A (85.1%), with A/H1N1pdm09 being the predominant circulating strain during the study following a shift from A/H3N2 from January–February 2019 onwards. In multivariate analyses, an absence of comorbidities (none versus any comorbidity [OR (95%CI), 0.565 (0.329–0.970)], p = 0.038) and of dyspnea (0.544 (0.341–0.868)], p = 0.011) were associated with increased risk of influenza positivity. Overall, 184/1106 (16.6%) patients were admitted to intensive care or high-dependency units (ICU/HDU) (13.2% were influenza positive) and 26/1106 (2.4%) died (2.6% were influenza positive). Males were more likely to have a severe outcome (ICU/HDU admission or death).

Conclusions

Influenza was a significant contributor to hospitalizations associated with CAP, AECOPD and AEBA. However, it was not associated with ICU/HDU admission in this population.

Study registration, NMRR ID: NMRR-17-889-35,174.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06360-9.

Etiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections, Bangladesh, 2017

In April 2017, surveillance detected a surge in severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Bangladesh. We collected specimens from SARI patients and asymptomatic controls for analysis with multipathogen diagnostic tests. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was associated with the SARI epidemic, suggesting that introducing vaccines and empiric antiviral drugs could be beneficial.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Influenza A and B in Macau, 2010-2018

Influenza is one of the major respiratory diseases in humans. Macau is a tourist city with high density of population and special population mobility. The study on the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Macau should bring great value for preventing influenza in tourist cities like Macau in the world. In this study, we collected a total of 104,874 samples with influenza-like illness (ILI) in Macau from 2010 to 2018. Chi-square test and binary multivariable logistic regression were used to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of influenza A and B in Macau. Among these ILI samples, the overall positive rate is 17.17% for influenza A and 6.97% for influenza B. The epidemics of influenza in three years (i.e., 2012, 2017 and 2018) differ from the remaining years (i.e., normal years). In a normal year, influenza A occurs year-round whereas influenza B is seasonal. Our research shows significant differences in influenza infections between different age groups in normal years. Interestingly, our analysis shows no significant difference between locals and tourists in influenza A and B infection in a normal year, whereas the odds of influenza A in tourists were significantly higher than those in locals in July 2017 and the odds of influenza B in tourists were significantly higher than those in locals in January-February 2012 and January-February 2018. This is possibly attributed by the policy of free vaccination to everyone in Macau. These findings should be valuable for preventing influenza in not only Macau but also the world.

Epidemiology of acute respiratory viral infections in children in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic

Respiratory infections are one of the most frequent reasons for medical consultations in children. In low resource settings such as in Lao People's Democratic Republic, knowledge gaps and the dearth of laboratory capacity to support differential diagnosis may contribute to antibiotic overuse. We studied the etiology, temporal trends, and genetic diversity of viral respiratory infections in children to provide evidence for prevention and treatment guidelines. From September 2014 to October 2015, throat swabs and nasopharyngeal aspirates from 445 children under 10 years old with symptoms of acute respiratory infection were collected at the Children Hospital in Vientiane. Rapid antigen tests were performed for influenza A and B and respiratory syncytial virus. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reactions (RT-PCRs) were performed to detect 16 viruses. Influenza infections were detected with a higher sensitivity using PCR than with the rapid antigen test. By RT-PCR screening, at least one pathogen could be identified for 71.7% of cases. Human rhinoviruses were most frequently detected (29.9%), followed by influenza A and B viruses combined (15.9%). We identify and discuss the seasonality of some of the infections. Altogether these data provide a detailed characterization of respiratory pathogens in Lao children and we provide recommendations for vaccination and further studies.

Efficacy of live attenuated and inactivated influenza vaccines among children in rural India: A 2-year, randomized, triple-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a cause of febrile acute respiratory infection (FARI) in India; however, few influenza vaccine trials have been conducted in India. We assessed absolute and relative efficacy of live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) and inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) among children aged 2 to 10 years in rural India through a randomized, triple-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted over 2 years.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In June 2015, children were randomly allocated to LAIV, IIV, intranasal placebo, or inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in a 2:2:1:1 ratio. In June 2016, vaccination was repeated per original allocation. Overall, 3,041 children received LAIV (n = 1,015), IIV (n = 1,010), nasal placebo (n = 507), or IPV (n = 509). Mean age of children was 6.5 years with 20% aged 9 to 10 years. Through weekly home visits, nasal and throat swabs were collected from children with FARI and tested for influenza virus by polymerase chain reaction. The primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated FARI; vaccine efficacy (VE) was calculated using modified intention-to-treat (mITT) analysis by Cox proportional hazards model (PH) for each year. In Year 1, VE was 40.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 25.2 to 51.9) for LAIV and 59.0% (95% CI 47.8 to 67.9) for IIV compared with controls; relative efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV was -46.2% (95% CI -88.9 to -13.1). In Year 2, VE was 51.9% (95% CI 42.0 to 60.1) for LAIV and 49.9% (95% CI 39.2 to 58.7) for IIV; relative efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV was 4.2% (95% CI -19.9 to 23.5). No serious adverse vaccine-attributable events were reported. Study limitations include differing dosage requirements for children between nasal and injectable vaccines (single dose of LAIV versus 2 doses of IIV) in Year 1 and the fact that immunogenicity studies were not conducted.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that LAIV and IIV vaccines were safe and moderately efficacious against influenza virus infection among Indian children.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trials Registry of India CTRI/2015/06/005902.

Respiratory viral infections in hospitalised paediatric patients in the tropics

AIM

Respiratory viruses are a huge disease burden globally. An understanding of the seasonal trends and the ability to predict peak periods of respiratory virus disease incidence is useful for clinical care.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of paediatric hospitalizations of laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory tract infections in KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2016. Standard direct immunofluorescence was used to detect respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B viruses, parainfluenza 1, 2 and 3 viruses, metapneumovirus and adenovirus.

RESULTS

A total of 97 840 specimens were analysed with a positive detection rate of 23.8%. RSV made up the largest proportion (42% of the total positive results), predominating between May to September. Influenza A had two peaks, June to July and December to January. Type 3 was the most common parainfluenza virus and showed annually recurring peaks. In contrast, parainfluenza 1 and 2, metapneumovirus and adenovirus had a biennial pattern. The test of seasonality detected identifiable seasonality for RSV and parainfluenza 3 virus.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, respiratory viruses have different and overlapping seasonality in tropical Singapore. Respiratory virus testing for patients admitted for acute respiratory infection is useful to target antiviral therapies and appropriate infection control practices.

Viral etiology and epidemiology of pediatric patients hospitalized for acute respiratory tract infections in Macao: a retrospective study from 2014 to 2017

Background

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are among the leading causes of hospitalization in children. Understanding the local dominant viral etiologies is important to inform infection control practices and clinical management. This study aimed to investigate the viral etiology and epidemiology of respiratory infections among pediatric inpatients in Macao.

Methods

A retrospective study using electronic health records between 2014 and 2017 at Kiang Wu Hospital was performed. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were obtained from hospitalized children aged 13 years or younger with respiratory tract diseases. xMAP multiplex assays were employed to detect respiratory agents including 10 respiratory viruses. Data were analyzed to describe the frequency and seasonality.

Results

Of the 4880 children enrolled in the study, 3767 (77.1%) were positive for at least one of the 13 viral pathogens tested, of which 2707 (55.5%) being male and 2635 (70.0%) under 2 years old. Among the positive results, there were 3091 (82.0%) single infections and 676 (18.0%) multiple infections. The predominant viruses included human rhinovirus/enterovirus (HRV/EV 27.4%), adenovirus (ADV, 15.8%), respiratory syncytial virus B (RSVB, 7.8%) and respiratory syncytial virus A (RSVA, 7.8%). The detection of viral infection was the most prevalent in autumn (960/1176, 81.6%), followed by spring (1095/1406, 77.9%), winter (768/992, 77.4%), and summer (944/1306, 72.3%), with HRV/EV and ADV being most commonly detected throughout the 4 years of study period. The detection rate of viral infection was highest among ARI patients presented with croup (123/141, 87.2%), followed by lower respiratory tract infection (1924/2356, 81.7%) and upper respiratory tract infection (1720/2383, 72.2%). FluA, FluB and ADV were positive factors for upper respiratory tract infections. On the other hand, infection with RSVA, RSVB, PIV3, PIV4, HMPV, and EV/RHV were positively associated with lower respiratory tract infections; and PIV1, PIV2, and PIV3 were positively associated with croup.

Conclusions

This is the first study in Macao to determine the viral etiology and epidemiology of pediatric patients hospitalized for ARIs. The study findings can contribute to the awareness of pathogen, appropriate preventative measure, accurate diagnosis, and proper clinical management of respiratory viral infections among children in Macao.

Maternal and Perinatal Outcomes of Influenza in Pregnancy after Treatment with Oseltamivir

Context:

Influenza infection in pregnancy causes 4%–8% case fatality and five times more perinatal mortality. Influenza is a major contributor to mortality in developing countries; however, the morbidity has largely been underestimated. Public health interventions for prevention are also lacking.

Aims:

This study aimed to determine the seasonality of influenza in pregnant Indian women and to estimate the maternal and perinatal morbidity after treatment with oseltamivir.

Settings and Design:

This was a prospective observational cohort study, conducted in a tertiary hospital.

Subjects and Methods:

Pregnant women with ILI (influenza-like illness) were recruited into Cohort 1 (polymerase chain reaction [PCR] positive) and Cohort 2 (PCR negative). Gestational age-matched asymptomatic controls formed Cohort 3. Women in Cohort 1 received oseltamivir for 5 days. The incidence of small-for-gestational age (SGA) and preterm birth were the primary outcomes. Maternal and neonatal morbidity formed the secondary outcomes.

Statistical Analysis:

Unmatched (Cohort 1 and 2) and matched analysis (Cohort 1 and 3) were done. Student's t-test and Chi-square test were used to compare between variables.

Results:

Year-round incidence of influenza was recorded. Severe illness was more in Cohort 1 compared to Cohort 2 (36.2% vs. 6.3%; P < 0.001). SGA was comparable in all the cohorts (13%). Preterm birth (7.8% vs. 3.3%; P < 0.08; relative risk-2.75) was considerably high in Cohort 1. Secondary maternal and neonatal outcomes were similar between the groups.

Conclusion:

Influenza in pregnancy showed year-round incidence and increased maternal and neonatal morbidity despite treatment with oseltamivir. We suggest the need for newer interventions to curtail the illness in pregnancy.

The moving epidemic method applied to influenza surveillance in Guangdong, China

OBJECTIVES

The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been well used for assessing seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions. This study used the MEM to establish epidemic threshold for influenza in Guangdong, a subtropical province in China.

METHODS

Influenza virology surveillance data from 2011/2012 to 2017/2018 seasons in Guangdong were used with the MEM to calculate the epidemic thresholds and timeously detect the 2018/2019 influenza season epidemic. The weekly positive proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria-lineage and B/Yamagata-lineage were separately adapted to calculate the subtype-specific epidemic thresholds. The performance of MEM was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure.

RESULTS

For the 2018/2019 influenza season, the epidemic threshold of a weekly positive proportion was 15.08%. Epidemic detection for the 2018/2019 season was 1 week in advance. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Yamagata-lineage and B/Victoria-lineage prevailed during winter and spring and their epidemic thresholds were 5.12%, 4.53% and 4.38%, respectively. Influenza A(H3N2) was active in the summer, with an epidemic threshold of 11.99%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using influenza virology surveillance data stratified by types of influenza virus, the MEM was effectively used in Guangdong, China. This study provided a practical way for subtropical regions to establish local influenza epidemic thresholds.

Public Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices toward Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Saudi Arabia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objectives: Increasing national influenza vaccination rates continues to be a challenge for Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to explore the Saudi public perceptions toward seasonal influenza vaccination and their association with the rate of vaccination. Methods: Individuals aged 15 years and older were surveyed about their knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward the seasonal influenza vaccine using a previously developed and validated 19-item online questionnaire. The impact of the participants’ perceptions toward the seasonal influenza vaccine on their past influenza vaccination history was assessed using multiple linear regressions. Results: The rate of regular vaccination among the 790 surveyed participants was 12.65%, and those who were aged <24 years had the highest rate (57%). The vast majority of the participants with chronic diseases (>90%) reported irregular vaccination histories against seasonal influenza. Participants who believed that the influenza vaccine is safe (β = 3.27; 95% CI: 2.067 to 5.171; p <0.001), efficacious (β = 2.87; 95% CI: 1.834 to 4.498; p <0.001), should be given during a specific time in the year (β = 1.821; 95% CI: 1.188 to 2.789; p = 0.0059), and were aware of their need to get vaccinated against the seasonal influenza (β = 2.781; 95% CI: 1.254 to 6.188; p = 0.0119) were more likely to have received the vaccine. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that the rate of seasonal influenza vaccination is low among the Saudi population, which necessitates the launching of public awareness campaigns about the importance of the seasonal influenza vaccine.

The Viral Etiologies of Severe Acute Respiratory Infection: Indian Perspective on the Emerging Pathogens

Severe Acute Respiratory Infection poses a significant threat to human health being a major cause of morbidity and mortality. India has witnessed several outbreaks of different infectious etiologies in the past. Among these, several new viral infections have been classified as emerging threat to humans. The word emerging refers to infectious etiologies that have newly appeared in the community or are rapidly increasing their range, corresponding to upsurge in the number of cases. Several different elements can contribute to the emergence of a new virus disease that may cause epidemic or pandemic around the globe. Containment of these viruses is difficult as most of them are of zoonotic origin. There is no immunity in the community against these viruses leaving individuals vulnerable to the disease. Factors such as socio-cultural, ecological along with human animal interphase creates challenges with respect to the emergence of these viral diseases. The major emerging viral infections of public health importance with respect to severe acute respiratory infection in India has been reviewed in this article.

Effectiveness of a Mobile-Based Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance System (FluMob) Among Health Care Workers: Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

Existing studies have suggested that internet-based participatory surveillance systems are a valid sentinel for influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance. However, there is limited scientific knowledge on the effectiveness of mobile-based ILI surveillance systems. Previous studies also adopted a passive surveillance approach and have not fully investigated the effectiveness of the systems and their determinants.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of a mobile-based surveillance system of ILI, termed FluMob, among health care workers using a targeted surveillance approach. Specifically, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the system for ILI surveillance pertaining to its participation engagement and surveillance power. In addition, we aimed to identify the factors that can moderate the effectiveness of the system.

METHODS

The FluMob system was launched in two large hospitals in Singapore from April 2016 to March 2018. A total of 690 clinical and nonclinical hospital staff participated in the study for 18 months and were prompted via app notifications to submit a survey listing 18 acute respiratory symptoms (eg, fever, cough, sore throat) on a weekly basis. There was a period of study disruption due to maintenance of the system and the end of the participation incentive between May and July of 2017.

RESULTS

On average, the individual submission rate was 41.4% (SD 24.3%), with a rate of 51.8% (SD 26.4%) before the study disruption and of 21.5% (SD 30.6%) after the disruption. Multivariable regression analysis showed that the adjusted individual submission rates were higher for participants who were older (<30 years, 31.4% vs 31-40 years, 40.2% [P<.001]; 41-50 years, 46.0% [P<.001]; >50 years, 39.9% [P=.01]), ethnic Chinese (Chinese, 44.4% vs non-Chinese, 34.7%; P<.001), and vaccinated against flu in the past year (vaccinated, 44.6% vs nonvaccinated, 34.4%; P<.001). In addition, the weekly ILI incidence was 1.07% on average. The Pearson correlation coefficient between ILI incidence estimated by FluMob and that reported by Singapore Ministry of Health was 0.04 (P=.75) with all data and was 0.38 (P=.006) including only data collected before the study disruption. Health care workers with higher risks of ILI and influenza such as women, non-Chinese, allied health staff, those who had children in their households, not vaccinated against influenza, and reported allergy demonstrated higher surveillance correlations.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobile-based ILI surveillance systems among health care workers can be effective. However, proper operation of the mobile system without major disruptions is vital for the engagement of participants and the persistence of surveillance power. Moreover, the effectiveness of the mobile surveillance system can be moderated by participants' characteristics, which highlights the importance of targeted disease surveillance that can reduce the cost of recruitment and engagement.

Epidemiology of Influenza among patients with influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory illness in Pakistan: A 10-year surveillance study 2008-17

In Pakistan, the burden of influenza was largely unknown, as no formal surveillance system was in place. In 2008, an influenza surveillance system was set up in eight sentinel sites. This study describes the epidemiology of influenza virus using a 10-year surveillance data from 2008 to 2017. Nasopharyngeal/throat swabs were collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) along with relevant epidemiological information. The samples were tested using real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction for the detection and characterization of influenza viruses. A total of 17 209 samples were tested for influenza, out of which 3552 (20.6%) were positive; 2151/11 239 (19.1%) were patients with ILI, whereas 1401/5970 (23.5%) were patients with SARI. Influenza A/H1N1pdm09 was the predominant strain with 40.6% (n = 1442) followed by influenza B (936, 26.4%). Influenza A/H1N1pdm09 was predominant among the children (5-14 years) and adults (15-64 years). Influenza B strain was predominantly found in the elderly age group (≥ 65 years) accounting for 48% of cases followed by children (2-4 years) accounting for 37% of cases. This 10-year surveillance data provides evidence of influenza activity in the country throughout the year with seasonal winter peaks. The results could be used to strengthen the epidemic preparedness and response plan.

Comparison of influenza antibody titers among women who were vaccinated in the 2nd and the 3rd trimesters of pregnancy

BACKGROUND

We compared cord blood antibody titers in unvaccinated pregnant women to those vaccinated with seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2^nd and the 3^rd trimesters.

METHODS

Pregnant women had cord blood collected at delivery for hemagglutination inhibition assay against vaccine reference viruses: A/California/07/2009 (H1N1)pdm09, A/Switzerland/9715293/2013 (H3N2), and B/Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata lineage). Geometric mean titer (GMT) ratios were calculated comparing vaccinated versus unvaccinated pregnant women, and women vaccinated in the 2^nd and the 3^rd trimesters. Proportions of women achieving defined titers were compared using the χ² test.

RESULTS

Of 307 women, 190 (62%) were unvaccinated. Fifty and 67 were vaccinated during the 2^nd and the 3^rd trimesters, respectively. Median enrollment age was 29 years (interquartile range 24-34). Sixteen (5%) women had pre-existing conditions, but none were immunocompromised. GMT ratios comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated women were 5.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.06-6.96) for influenza A/California, 5.39 (95% CI 4.18-6.08) for influenza A/Switzerland, and 5.05 (95% CI 4.43-5.85) for influenza B/Phuket. Similarly, the GMT ratios comparing the 3^rd and the 2^nd trimester vaccinated women were 2.90 (95% CI 2.54-3.39), 2.82 (95% CI 2.56-3.13), and 2.83 (95% CI 2.56-3.14), respectively. The proportions of women with defined titers for the three vaccine reference viruses did not differ between 2^nd and 3^rd trimester vaccinated women (titers ≥40: 68-92% versus 70-93%; ≥110: 32% versus 33-63%; and ≥330: 4-10% versus 3-21%).

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant women vaccinated against influenza had more placental transfer of influenza antibodies to their infants than unvaccinated women. Placental transfer of antibodies was higher among those vaccinated in the 3^rd trimester than in the 2^nd trimester. There was no difference in the proportions of women achieving antibody titers corresponding to protection against influenza in children. Findings support the current World Health Organization's recommendation that pregnant women may be vaccinated in either 2^nd or 3^rd trimester of pregnancy.

Epidemic and pandemic viral infections: impact on tuberculosis and the lung: A consensus by the World Association for Infectious Diseases and Immunological Disorders (WAidid), Global Tuberculosis Network (GTN), and members of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Study Group for Mycobacterial Infections (ESGMYC)

Major epidemics, including some that qualify as pandemics, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), HIV, influenza A (H1N1)pdm/09 and most recently COVID-19, affect the lung. Tuberculosis (TB) remains the top infectious disease killer, but apart from syndemic TB/HIV little is known regarding the interaction of viral epidemics and pandemics with TB. The aim of this consensus-based document is to describe the effects of viral infections resulting in epidemics and pandemics that affect the lung (MERS, SARS, HIV, influenza A (H1N1)pdm/09 and COVID-19) and their interactions with TB. A search of the scientific literature was performed. A writing committee of international experts including the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control Public Health Emergency (ECDC PHE) team, the World Association for Infectious Diseases and Immunological Disorders (WAidid), the Global Tuberculosis Network (GTN), and members of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Study Group for Mycobacterial Infections (ESGMYC) was established. Consensus was achieved after multiple rounds of revisions between the writing committee and a larger expert group. A Delphi process involving the core group of authors (excluding the ECDC PHE team) identified the areas requiring review/consensus, followed by a second round to refine the definitive consensus elements. The epidemiology and immunology of these viral infections and their interactions with TB are discussed with implications for diagnosis, treatment and prevention of airborne infections (infection control, viral containment and workplace safety). This consensus document represents a rapid and comprehensive summary on what is known on the topic.

Climate factors influence seasonal influenza activity in Bangkok, Thailand

Yearly increase in influenza activity is associated with cold and dry winter in the temperate regions, while influenza patterns in tropical countries vary significantly by regional climates and geographic locations. To examine the association between influenza activity in Thailand and local climate factors including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, we analyzed the influenza surveillance data from January 2010 to December 2018 obtained from a large private hospital in Bangkok. We found that approximately one in five influenza-like illness samples (21.6% or 6,678/30,852) tested positive for influenza virus. Influenza virus typing showed that 34.2% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 46.0% were influenza A(H3N2), and 19.8% were influenza B virus. There were two seasonal waves of increased influenza activity. Peak influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 activity occurred in February and again in August, while influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses were primarily detected in August and September. Time series analysis suggests that increased relative humidity was significantly associated with increased influenza activity in Bangkok. Months with peak influenza activity generally followed the most humid months of the year. We performed the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) multivariate analysis of all influenza activity on the 2011 to 2017 data to predict the influenza activity for 2018. The resulting model closely resembled the actual observed overall influenza detected that year. Consequently, the ability to predict seasonal pattern of influenza in a large tropical city such as Bangkok may enable better public health planning and underscores the importance of annual influenza vaccination prior to the rainy season.

Semiannual Versus Annual Influenza Vaccination in Older Adults in the Tropics: An Observer-blind, Active-comparator-controlled, Randomized Superiority Trial

BACKGROUND

Antibody titres and vaccine effectiveness decline within 6 months after influenza vaccination in older adults. Biannual vaccination may be necessary to provide year-round protection in the tropics, where influenza circulates throughout the year.

METHODS

Tropical Influenza Control Strategies (TROPICS1) was a single-center, 1:1 randomized, observer-blinded, active-comparator-controlled, superiority study in 200 community-resident adults aged ≥65 years. Participants received a standard-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination (IIV3) at enrollment, and either tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccination or IIV3 6 months later. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants with haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) geometric mean titre (GMT) ≥1:40 1 month after the second vaccination (month 7). Secondary outcomes included GMTs to month 12, the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI), and adverse reactions after vaccination.

RESULTS

At month 7, the proportion of participants with an HI tire ≥1:40 against A/H1N1 increased by 21.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.6-33.4) in the semiannual vaccination group. This proportion was not significantly higher for A/H3N2 (4.3, 95% CI -1.1-10.8) or B (2.1, 95% CI -2.0-7.3). Semiannual vaccination significantly increased GMTs against A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, but not B, at month 7. Participants receiving a repeat vaccination of IIV3 reported a significantly lower incidence of ILI in the 6 months after the second vaccination (relative vaccine effectiveness 57.1%, 95% CI 0.6-81.5). The frequency of adverse events was similar after the first and second influenza vaccinations.

CONCLUSIONS

Semiannual influenza vaccination in older residents of tropical countries has the potential to improve serological measures of protection against infection. Alternative vaccination strategies should also be studied.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02655874.

The impact of healthcare worker influenza vaccination on nosocomial influenza in a tertiary hospital: an ecological study

Background

To protect hospitalized patients, who are more susceptible to complications of influenza, seasonal influenza vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) has been recommended internationally. However, its effectiveness is still being debated. To assess the effectiveness of HCW influenza vaccination, we performed an ecological study to evaluate the association between healthcare worker influenza vaccination and the incidence of nosocomial influenza in a tertiary hospital within Singapore between 2013 and 2018.

Methods

Nosocomial influenza was defined as influenza among inpatients diagnosed 7 days or more after admission by laboratory testing, while healthcare worker influenza vaccination rate was defined as the proportion of healthcare workers that was vaccinated at the end of each annual seasonal vaccination exercise. A modified Poisson regression was performed to assess the association between the HCW vaccination rates and monthly nosocomial influenza incidence rates.

Results

Nosocomial influenza incidence rates followed the trend of non-nosocomial influenza, showing a predominant mid-year peak. Across 2,480,010 patient-days, there were 256 nosocomial influenza cases (1.03 per 10,000 patient-days). Controlling for background influenza activity and the number of influenza tests performed, no statistically significant association was observed between vaccination coverage and nosocomial influenza incidence rate although a protective effect was suggested (IRR 0.89, 95%CI:0.69–1.15, p = 0.37).

Conclusion

No significant association was observed between influenza vaccination rates and nosocomial influenza incidence rates, although a protective effect was suggested. Aligning local HCW vaccine timing and formulation to that of the Southern Hemisphere may improve effectiveness. HCW vaccination remains important but demonstrating its effectiveness in preventing nosocomial influenza is challenging.

Influenza-associated excess mortality in the Philippines, 2006-2015

Influenza-associated mortality has not been quantified in the Philippines. Here, we constructed multiple negative binomial regression models to estimate the overall and age-specific excess mortality rates (EMRs) associated with influenza in the Philippines from 2006 to 2015. The regression analyses used all-cause mortality as the dependent variable and meteorological controls, time, influenza A and B positivity rates (lagged for up to two time periods), and annual and semiannual cyclical seasonality controls as independent variables. The regression models closely matched observed all-cause mortality. Influenza was estimated to account for a mean of 5,347 excess deaths per year (1.1% of annual all-cause deaths) in the Philippines, most of which (67.1%) occurred in adults aged ≥60 years. Influenza A accounted for 85.7% of all estimated excess influenza deaths. The annual estimated influenza-attributable EMR was 5.09 (95% CI: 2.20–5.09) per 100,000 individuals. The EMR was highest for individuals aged ≥60 years (44.63 [95% CI: 4.51–44.69] per 100,000), second highest for children aged less than 5 years (2.14 [95% CI: 0.44–2.19] per 100,000), and lowest for individuals aged 10 to 19 years (0.48 [95% CI: 0.10–0.50] per 100,000). Estimated numbers of excess influenza-associated deaths were considerably higher than the numbers of influenza deaths registered nationally. Our results suggest that influenza causes considerable mortality in the Philippines–to an extent far greater than observed from national statistics–especially among older adults and young children.