Phylogenetic analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus outbreak strains provides evidence for four separate introductions and one between-poultry farm transmission in the Netherlands, November 2014

Experimental infection of chickens, Pekin ducks, Eurasian wigeons and Barnacle geese with two recent highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses

Multiple genotypes of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have caused epizootics in wild birds and poultry. The HPAI H5N1 genotype C virus caused a modest epizootic, whereas the occurrence of the HPAI H5N1 genotype AB virus in 2021 resulted in the largest avian influenza epizootic in Europe to date. Here we studied the pathogenicity of two HPAI H5N1 viruses by experimentally infecting chickens, Pekin ducks, Eurasian wigeons and Barnacle geese. Our study demonstrates that pathogenicity of the H5N1-2021-AB virus is lower in Pekin ducks, Eurasian wigeons and Barnacle geese compared to the H5N1-2020-C virus, whereas virus shedding was high for both viruses. After inoculation with H5N1-2021-C viral antigen expression was higher in the brain of Pekin ducks, Eurasian wigeons and Barnacle geese, which caused higher mortality compared to inoculation with H5N1-2021-AB virus. Subclinical infections occurred in Pekin ducks and Eurasian wigeons and mortality was reduced in Barnacle geese after inoculation with H5N1-2021-AB virus while H5N1-2020-C virus caused high morbidity and mortality in these species. This H5N1-2021-AB virus trait may have contributed to efficient spread of the virus in wild bird populations. Therefore, high mortality, virus shedding and long-lasting viral antigen expression found in Barnacle geese may have increased the risk for introduction into poultry.

In Ovo Models to Predict Virulence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5-Viruses for Chickens and Ducks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5-viruses are circulating in wild birds and are repeatedly introduced to poultry causing outbreaks in the Netherlands since 2014. The largest epizootic ever recorded in Europe was caused by HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses in the period 2021-2022. The recent H5-clade 2.3.4.4 viruses were found to differ in their virulence for chickens and ducks. Viruses causing only mild disease may remain undetected, increasing the risk of virus spread to other farms, wild birds and mammals. We developed in ovo models to determine the virulence of HPAI viruses for chickens and ducks, which are fast and have low costs. The virulence of five contemporary H5-viruses was compared studying replication rate, average time to death and virus spread in the embryo. Remarkable differences in virulence were observed between H5-viruses and between poultry species. The H5N1-2021 virus was found to have a fast replication rate in both the chicken and duck in ovo models, but a slower systemic virus dissemination compared to three other H5-clade 2.3.4.4b viruses. The results show the potential of in ovo models to quickly determine the virulence of novel HPAI viruses, and study potential virulence factors which can help to better guide the surveillance in poultry.

Enzootic Circulation, Massive Gull Mortality and Poultry Outbreaks during the 2022/2023 High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5N1 Season in the Czech Republic

In 2022/2023, Europe experienced its third consecutive season of high-pathogenicity avian influenza. During this period, the Czech Republic was again severely affected. For the first time, the number of culled birds approached one million, which was three times higher than in previous seasons. In parallel to the outbreaks in poultry, mass die-offs of gulls were also observed. In the present study, we performed whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of 137 H5N1 strains collected in the Czech Republic in 2022/2023 (94.6% of all outbreaks or locations). The analysis revealed four distinct genotypes: AB, CH, BB and AF. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that the AF genotype persisted from the previous H5N1 season without reassortment. In addition, the genotype BB, which was detected mainly in gulls, showed a noticeable strain diversity at the local level. This virus was also responsible for a single outbreak in commercially bred turkeys. Finally, an interesting spatio-temporal cluster with three co-circulating H5N1 genotypes, AB, CH and AF, was identified with no evidence of intrasubtype reassortment. Highly sensitive molecular surveillance and the timely sharing of genomic sequences and associated metadata could greatly assist in tracking the spread and detecting molecular changes associated with the increased virulence of this potentially zoonotic pathogen.

Efficient and Informative Laboratory Testing for Rapid Confirmation of H5N1 (Clade 2.3.4.4) High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Outbreaks in the United Kingdom

During the early stages of the UK 2021-2022 H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) epizootic in commercial poultry, 12 infected premises (IPs) were confirmed by four real-time reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RRT)-PCRs, which identified the viral subtype and pathotype. An assessment was undertaken to evaluate whether a large sample throughput would challenge laboratory capacity during an exceptionally large epizootic; hence, assay performance across our test portfolio was investigated. Statistical analysis of RRT-PCR swab testing supported it to be focused on a three-test approach, featuring the matrix (M)-gene, H5 HPAIV-specific (H5-HP) and N1 RRT-PCRs, which was successfully assessed at 29 subsequent commercial IPs. The absence of nucleotide mismatches in the primer/probe binding regions for the M-gene and limited mismatches for the H5-HP RRT-PCR underlined their high sensitivity. Although less sensitive, the N1 RRT-PCR remained effective at flock level. The analyses also guided successful surveillance testing of apparently healthy commercial ducks from at-risk premises, with pools of five oropharyngeal swabs tested by the H5-HP RRT-PCR to exclude evidence of infection. Serological testing at anseriform H5N1 HPAIV outbreaks, together with quantitative comparisons of oropharyngeal and cloacal shedding, provided epidemiological information concerning the chronology of initial H5N1 HPAIV incursion and onward spread within an IP.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus Infections in Wild Red Foxes (Vulpes vulpes) Show Neurotropism and Adaptive Virus Mutations

During the 2020 to 2022 epizootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI), several infections of mammalian species were reported in Europe. In the Netherlands, HPAI H5N1 virus infections were detected in three wild red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) that were submitted with neurological symptoms between December of 2021 and February of 2022. A histopathological analysis demonstrated that the virus was mainly present in the brain, with limited or no detection in the respiratory tract or other organs. Limited or no virus shedding was observed in throat and rectal swabs. A phylogenetic analysis showed that the three fox viruses were not closely related, but they were related to HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses that are found in wild birds. This suggests that the virus was not transmitted between the foxes. A genetic analysis demonstrated the presence of the mammalian adaptation E627K in the polymerase basic two (PB2) protein of the two fox viruses. In both foxes, the avian (PB2-627E) and the mammalian (PB2-627K) variants were present as a mixture in the virus population, which suggests that the mutation emerged in these specific animals. The two variant viruses were isolated, and virus replication and passaging experiments were performed. These experiments showed that the mutation PB2-627K increases the replication of the virus in mammalian cell lines, compared to the chicken cell line, and at the lower temperatures of the mammalian upper respiratory tract. This study showed that the HPAI H5N1 virus is capable of adaptation to mammals; however, more adaptive mutations are required to allow for efficient transmission between mammals. Therefore, surveillance in mammals should be expanded to closely monitor the emergence of zoonotic mutations for pandemic preparedness. IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses caused high mortality among wild birds from 2021 to 2022 in the Netherlands. Recently, three wild foxes were found to be infected with HPAI H5N1 viruses, likely due to the foxes feeding on infected birds. Although HPAI is a respiratory virus, in these foxes, the viruses were mostly detected in the brain. Two viruses isolated from the foxes contained a mutation that is associated with adaptation to mammals. We show that the mutant virus replicates better in mammalian cells than in avian cells and at the lower body temperature of mammals. More mutations are required before viruses can transmit between mammals or can be transmitted to humans. However, infections in mammalian species should be closely monitored to swiftly detect mutations that may increase the zoonotic potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses, as these may threaten public health.

Zoonotic Mutation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus Identified in the Brain of Multiple Wild Carnivore Species

Wild carnivore species infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 during the 2021-2022 outbreak in the Netherlands included red fox (Vulpes vulpes), polecat (Mustela putorius), otter (Lutra lutra), and badger (Meles meles). Most of the animals were submitted for testing because they showed neurological signs. In this study, the HPAI H5N1 virus was detected by PCR and/or immunohistochemistry in 11 animals and was primarily present in brain tissue, often associated with a (meningo) encephalitis in the cerebrum. In contrast, the virus was rarely detected in the respiratory tract and intestinal tract and associated lesions were minimal. Full genome sequencing followed by phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that these carnivore viruses were related to viruses detected in wild birds in the Netherlands. The carnivore viruses themselves were not closely related, and the infected carnivores did not cluster geographically, suggesting that they were infected separately. The mutation PB2-E627K was identified in most carnivore virus genomes, providing evidence for mammalian adaptation. This study showed that brain samples should be included in wild life surveillance programs for the reliable detection of the HPAI H5N1 virus in mammals. Surveillance of the wild carnivore population and notification to the Veterinary Authority are important from a one-heath perspective, and instrumental to pandemic preparedness.

Genotype Diversity, Wild Bird-to-Poultry Transmissions, and Farm-to-Farm Carryover during the Spread of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in the Czech Republic in 2021/2022

In 2021/2022, the re-emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurred in Europe. The outbreak was seeded from two sources: resident and reintroduced viruses, which is unprecedented in the recorded history of avian influenza. The dominant subtype was H5N1, which replaced the H5N8 subtype that had predominated in previous seasons. In this study, we present a whole genome sequence and a phylogenetic analysis of 57 H5N1 HPAI and two low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H5N1 strains collected in the Czech Republic during 2021/2022. Phylogenetic analysis revealed close relationships between H5N1 genomes from poultry and wild birds and secondary transmission in commercial geese. The genotyping showed considerable genetic heterogeneity among Czech H5N1 viruses, with six different HPAI genotypes, three of which were apparently unique. In addition, second-order reassortment relationships were observed with the direct involvement of co-circulating H5N1 LPAI strains. The genetic distance between Czech H5N1 HPAI and the closest LPAI segments available in the database illustrates the profound gaps in our knowledge of circulating LPAI strains. The changing dynamics of HPAI in the wild may increase the likelihood of future HPAI outbreaks and present new challenges in poultry management, biosecurity, and surveillance.

Monitoring Wind-Borne Particle Matter Entering Poultry Farms via the Air-Inlet: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus and Other Pathogens Risk

Wind-supported transport of particle matter (PM) contaminated with excreta from highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv)-infected wild birds may be a HPAIv-introduction pathway, which may explain infections in indoor-housed poultry. The primary objective of our study was therefore to measure the nature and quantity of PM entering poultry houses via air-inlets. The air-inlets of two recently HPAIv-infected poultry farms (a broiler farm and a layer farm) were equipped with mosquito-net collection bags. PM was harvested every 5 days for 25 days. Video-camera monitoring registered wild bird visits. PM was tested for avian influenza viruses (AIV), Campylobacter and Salmonella with PCR. Insects, predominantly mosquitoes, were tested for AIV, West Nile, Usutu and Schmallenberg virus. A considerable number of mosquitoes and small PM amounts entered the air-inlets, mostly cobweb and plant material, but no wild bird feathers. Substantial variation in PM entering between air-inlets existed. In stormy periods, significantly larger PM amounts may enter wind-directed air-inlets. PM samples were AIV and Salmonella negative and insect samples were negative for all viruses and bacteria, but several broiler and layer farm PM samples tested Campylobacter positive. Regular wild (water) bird visits were observed near to the poultry houses. Air-borne PM and insects-potentially contaminated with HPAIv or other pathogens-can enter poultry air-inlets. Implementation of measures limiting this potential introduction route are recommended.

Phylodynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus Circulating in Indonesian Poultry

After its first detection in 1996, the highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5Nx) virus has spread extensively worldwide. HPAIv A(H5N1) was first detected in Indonesia in 2003 and has been endemic in poultry in this country ever since. However, Indonesia has limited information related to the phylodynamics of HPAIv A(H5N1) in poultry. The present study aimed to increase the understanding of the evolution and temporal dynamics of HPAIv H5N1 in Indonesian poultry between 2003 and 2016. To this end, HPAIv A(H5N1) hemagglutinin sequences of viruses collected from 2003 to 2016 were analyzed using Bayesian evolutionary analysis sampling trees. Results indicated that the common ancestor of Indonesian poultry HPAIv H5N1 arose approximately five years after the common ancestor worldwide of HPAI A(H5Nx). In addition, this study indicated that only two introductions of HPAIv A(H5N1) occurred, after which these viruses continued to evolve due to extensive spread among poultry. Furthermore, this study revealed the divergence of H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1c from H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1b. Both clades 2.3.2.1c and 2.3.2.1b share a common ancestor, clade 1, suggesting that clade 2.3.2.1 originated and diverged from China and other Asian countries. Since there was limited sequence and surveillance data for the HPAIv A(H5N1) from wild birds in Indonesia, the exact role of wild birds in the spread of HPAIv in Indonesia is currently unknown. The evolutionary dynamics of the Indonesian HPAIv A(H5N1) highlight the importance of continuing and improved genomic surveillance and adequate control measures in the different regions of both the poultry and wild birds. Spatial genomic surveillance is useful to take adequate control measures. Therefore, it will help to prevent the future evolution of HPAI A(H5N1) and pandemic threats.

Genotype Uniformity, Wild Bird-to-Poultry Transmissions, and Farm-to-Farm Carryover during the Spread of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 in the Czech Republic in 2021

In 2020–2021, the second massive dissemination of a highly pathogenic avian influenza of the H5Nx subtype occurred in Europe. During this period, the virus caused numerous outbreaks in poultry, including in the Czech Republic. In the present study, we provide an insight into the genetic variability of the Czech/2021 (CZE/2021) H5N8 viruses to determine the relationships between strains from wild and domestic poultry and to infer transmission routes between the affected flocks of commercial poultry. For this purpose, whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of 70 H5N8 genomes representing 79.7% of the cases were performed. All CZE/2021 H5N8 viruses belonged to the 2.3.4.4b H5 lineage and circulated without reassortment, retaining the A/chicken/Iraq/1/2020 H5N8-like genotype constellation. Phylogenetic analysis suggested the frequent local transmission of H5N8 from wild birds to backyard poultry and extensive spread among commercial poultry farms. In addition, the analysis suggested one cross-border transmission event. Indirect transmission via contaminated materials was considered the most likely source of infection. Improved biosecurity and increased collaboration between field veterinarians and the laboratory are essential to limit the local spread of the virus and to reveal and interrupt critical routes of infection.

Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (cases) on Dutch poultry farms, each matched with four comparable controls. We trained machine learning classifiers to predict outbreak risk with predictors analyzed at different spatial scales. Of the 20 best explaining predictors, 17 consisted of densities of water-associated bird species, 2 of birds of prey, and 1 represented the surrounding landscape, i.e., agricultural cover. The spatial distribution of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) contributed most to risk prediction, followed by mute swan (Cygnus olor), common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) and brant goose (Branta bernicla). The model successfully distinguished cases from controls, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92, indicating accurate prediction of HPAI outbreak risk despite the limited numbers of cases. Different classification algorithms led to similar predictions, demonstrating robustness of the risk maps. These analyses and risk maps facilitate insights into the role of wild bird species and support prioritization of areas for surveillance, biosecurity measures and establishments of new poultry farms to reduce HPAI outbreak risks.

Pathogenicity of three genetically distinct and highly pathogenic Egyptian H5N8 avian influenza viruses in chickens

In late 2016, Egypt encountered multiple cases of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of the H5N8 subtype. In a previous study, three distinct genotypes, including A/common-coot/Egypt/CA285/2016 (H5N8) (CA285), A/duck/Egypt/SS19/2017 (H5N8) (SS19), and A/duck/Egypt/F446/2017 (H5N8) (F446), were isolated from wild birds, a backyard, and a commercial farm, respectively, during the first wave of infection. In this current study, we investigated the differences in the pathogenicity, replication and transmissibility of the three genotypes and A/chicken/Egypt/15S75/2015 (H5N1) (S75) was used as the control. The intravenous pathogenicity index was between 2.68 and 2.9. The chicken lethal dose 50 values of F446, SS19 and CA285 were 10^3.7, 10^3.7, an 10⁴ with a natural route of infection, respectively. These strains took longer than S75 to cause death when infection was carried out through the natural route (HPAI H5N1). After inoculation with the original concentration of 10⁵ and 10⁶ egg infective dose 50 (EID₅₀), F446 had a higher mortality rate with short mean death times of 4, and 7 days, respectively compared with the other H5N8 viruses. Chickens inoculated with F446 and contacted exposed chickens infected with F446 showed the highest viral titer with remarkable differences in all H5N8 tested swabs at 2-4 days postinfection (dpi) compared to S75 at 2 dpi. This indicates that F446 had a more efficient transmission and spread from contact exposed birds to other birds. All H5N8 viruses were able to replicate systematically in all organs (trachea, brain, lung, and spleen) of the chicken with high viral titer with significantly different and more pathological changes observed in F446 than in other H5N8 viruses at 2 and 4 dpi. Compared with H5N1, we recorded a significantly high viral titer in the samples obtained from the lung, brain and both cloacal and tracheal swabs at 2 and 4 dpi, respectively and in the samples obtained from the spleen at 2 and 4 dpi among the experimental chicken. The comparative pathogenesis study revealed that in comparison with the other HPAI H5N8 viruses, the genotype F446 was more pathogenic, and showed more efficient viral replication and transmissibility in chickens in Egypt. The genotype F446 also showed a high viral titer than HPAI H5N1 and short mean death time at the third day after inoculation with 10⁶ and 10⁵ EID50, which revealed a conservation of certain H5N8 genotypes and a decrease in the incidence of H5N1.

Mortality Levels and Production Indicators for Suspicion of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Commercially Farmed Ducks

(1) Background: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral infection characterized by inducing severe disease and high levels of mortality in gallinaceous poultry. Increased mortality, drop in egg production or decreased feed or water intake are used as indicators for notification of suspicions of HPAI outbreaks. However, infections in commercial duck flocks may result in mild disease with low mortality levels, thereby compromising notifications. (2) Methods: Data on daily mortality, egg production, feed intake and water intake from broiler and breeder duck flocks not infected (n = 56 and n = 11, respectively) and infected with HPAIV (n = 13, n = 4) were used for analyses. Data from negative flocks were used to assess the baseline (daily) levels of mortality and production parameters and to identify potential threshold values for triggering suspicions of HPAI infections and assess the specificity (Sp) of these thresholds. Data from infected flocks were used to assess the effect of infection on daily mortality and production and to evaluate the sensitivity (Se) of the thresholds for early detection of outbreaks. (3) Results: For broiler flocks, daily mortality > 0.3% (after the first week of production) or using a regression model for aberration detection would indicate infection with Se and Sp higher than 80%. Drops in mean daily feed or water intake larger than 7 g or 14 mL (after the first week of production), respectively, are sensitive indicators of infection but have poor Sp. For breeders, mortality thresholds are poor indicators of infection (low Se and Sp). However, a consecutive drop in egg production larger than 9% is an effective indicator of a HPAI outbreak. For both broiler and breeder duck flocks, cumulative average methods were also assessed, which had high Se but generated many false alarms (poor Sp). (4) Conclusions: The identified reporting thresholds can be used to update legislation and provide guidelines to farmers and veterinarians to notify suspicions of HPAI outbreaks in commercial duck flocks.

Comparative pathogenicity and environmental transmission of recent highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses

Strategies to control spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses by wild birds appear limited, hence timely characterization of novel viruses is important to mitigate the risk for the poultry sector and human health. In this study we characterize three recent H5-clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, the H5N8-2014 group A virus and the H5N8-2016 and H5N6-2017 group B viruses. The pathogenicity of the three viruses for chickens, Pekin ducks and Eurasian wigeons was compared. The three viruses were highly pathogenic for chickens, but the two H5N8 viruses caused no to mild clinical symptoms in both duck species. The highest pathogenicity for duck species was observed for the most recent H5N6-2017 virus. For both duck species, virus shedding from the cloaca was higher after infection with group B viruses compared to the H5N8-2014 group A virus. Higher cloacal virus shedding of wild ducks may increase transmission between wild birds and poultry. Environmental transmission of H5N8-2016 virus to chickens was studied, which showed that chickens are efficiently infected by (fecal) contaminated water. These results suggest that pathogenicity of HPAI H5 viruses and virus shedding for ducks is evolving, which may have implications for the risk of introduction of these viruses into the poultry sector.

Genomic evolution, transmission dynamics, and pathogenicity of avian influenza A (H5N8) viruses emerging in China, 2020

Multiple recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N8 viruses originating in aquatic birds frequently occurred in most European countries, Russia, South Korea, and Japan during the winter of 2020–21, and one zoonotic event of poultry workers infected with novel H5N8 viruses were reported in Russia. Strikingly, these novel H5N8 viruses had emerged and been co-circulating in wild birds and poultry in multiple provinces of China during 2020–21. In China, the population of aquatic birds has risen significantly in the past twenty years, and China is regarded as the largest reservoir for influenza viruses carried in aquatic birds across the globe. Hence, the co-circulation of these novel H5N8 viruses poses an alarming threat to not only poultry industry but also human health. In this study, we sequenced full-length genomes of these H5N8 viruses circulating in China. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that poultry-origin H5N8 viruses in China fell within wild birds-origin clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 viruses from Europe during 2020–21, and notably, were genetically closely related to human-infecting H5N8 viruses in Russia. Moreover, they possessed several molecular markers associated with mammalian adaption. Bayesian coalescent analysis showed that these H5N8 viruses might have introduced into China during June–September 2020, suggesting that these H5N8 viruses might have introduced via wild bird migration or poultry trade. Besides, we also found that the effective population size of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 viruses dramatically increased during the winter season of 2020/21, as is consistent with previous increase of genetic diversity during the winter seasons of 2013/14 and 2016/17, which indicated that the wild bird migration accelerates the genetic diversity of these H5N8 viruses during the winter season of 2020/21. Notably, these novel H5N8 viruses were lethal to chickens and mice, highly transmissible to ducks, and were antigenically distinct from 2.3.4.4h H5 viruses circulating in China, posing considerable threats to public health. Our findings offer novel insights into the evolution and risk assessment of H5N8 viruses during the winter season of 2020–21.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses at the Wild-Domestic Bird Interface in Europe: Future Directions for Research and Surveillance

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in wild birds and poultry are no longer a rare phenomenon in Europe. In the past 15 years, HPAI outbreaks—in particular those caused by H5 viruses derived from the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage that emerged in southeast Asia in 1996—have been occuring with increasing frequency in Europe. Between 2005 and 2020, at least ten HPAI H5 incursions were identified in Europe resulting in mass mortalities among poultry and wild birds. Until 2009, the HPAI H5 virus outbreaks in Europe were caused by HPAI H5N1 clade 2.2 viruses, while from 2014 onwards HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses dominated outbreaks, with abundant genetic reassortments yielding subtypes H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N4, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8. The majority of HPAI H5 virus detections in wild and domestic birds within Europe coincide with southwest/westward fall migration and large local waterbird aggregations during wintering. In this review we provide an overview of HPAI H5 virus epidemiology, ecology and evolution at the interface between poultry and wild birds based on 15 years of avian influenza virus surveillance in Europe, and assess future directions for HPAI virus research and surveillance, including the integration of whole genome sequencing, host identification and avian ecology into risk-based surveillance and analyses.

Fine-scale tracking of wild waterfowl and their impact on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the Republic of Korea, 2014-2015

Wild migratory waterfowl are considered one of the most important reservoirs and long-distance carriers of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Our study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of wild migratory waterfowl’s wintering habitat in the Republic of Korea (ROK) and to evaluate the impact of these habitats on the risk of HPAI outbreaks in commercial poultry farms. The habitat use of 344 wild migratory waterfowl over four migration cycles was estimated based on tracking records. The association of habitat use with HPAI H5N8 outbreaks in poultry farms was evaluated using a multilevel logistic regression model. We found that a poultry farm within a wild waterfowl habitat had a 3–8 times higher risk of HPAI outbreak than poultry farms located outside of the habitat. The range of wild waterfowl habitats increased during autumn migration, and was associated with the epidemic peak of HPAI outbreaks on domestic poultry farms in the ROK. Our findings provide a better understanding of the dynamics of HPAI infection in the wildlife–domestic poultry interface and may help to establish early detection, and cost-effective preventive measures.

Genesis and spread of multiple reassortants during the 2016/2017 H5 avian influenza epidemic in Eurasia

In 2016/2017, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of the subtype H5 spilled over into wild birds and caused the largest known HPAI epidemic in Europe, affecting poultry and wild birds. During its spread, the virus frequently exchanged genetic material (reassortment) with cocirculating low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses. To determine where and when these reassortments occurred, we analyzed Eurasian avian influenza viruses and identified a large set of H5 HPAI reassortants. We found that new genetic material likely came from wild birds across their migratory range and from domestic ducks not only in China, but also in central Europe. This knowledge is important to understand how the virus could adapt to wild birds and become established in wild bird populations.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5 A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 lineage can cause severe disease in poultry and wild birds, and occasionally in humans. In recent years, H5 HPAI viruses of this lineage infecting poultry in Asia have spilled over into wild birds and spread via bird migration to countries in Europe, Africa, and North America. In 2016/2017, this spillover resulted in the largest HPAI epidemic on record in Europe and was associated with an unusually high frequency of reassortments between H5 HPAI viruses and cocirculating low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Here, we show that the seven main H5 reassortant viruses had various combinations of gene segments 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6. Using detailed time-resolved phylogenetic analysis, most of these gene segments likely originated from wild birds and at dates and locations that corresponded to their hosts’ migratory cycles. However, some gene segments in two reassortant viruses likely originated from domestic anseriforms, either in spring 2016 in east China or in autumn 2016 in central Europe. Our results demonstrate that, in addition to domestic anseriforms in Asia, both migratory wild birds and domestic anseriforms in Europe are relevant sources of gene segments for recent reassortant H5 HPAI viruses. The ease with which these H5 HPAI viruses reassort, in combination with repeated spillovers of H5 HPAI viruses into wild birds, increases the risk of emergence of a reassortant virus that persists in wild bird populations yet remains highly pathogenic for poultry.

Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks

The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.

Seasonal risk of low pathogenic avian influenza virus introductions into free-range layer farms in the Netherlands

Poultry can become infected with avian influenza viruses (AIV) via (in) direct contact with infected wild birds. Free‐range chicken farms in the Netherlands were shown to have a higher risk for introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus than indoor chicken farms. Therefore, during outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), free‐range layers are confined indoors as a risk mitigation measure. In this study, we characterized the seasonal patterns of AIV introductions into free‐range layer farms, to determine the high‐risk period. Data from the LPAI serological surveillance programme for the period 2013–2016 were used to first estimate the time of virus introduction into affected farms and then assess seasonal patterns in the risk of introduction. Time of introduction was estimated by fitting a mathematical model to seroprevalence data collected longitudinally from infected farms. For the period 2015–2016, longitudinal follow‐up included monthly collections of eggs for serological testing from a cohort of 261 farms. Information on the time of introduction was then used to estimate the monthly incidence and seasonality by fitting harmonic and Poisson regression models. A significant yearly seasonal risk of introduction that lasted around 4 months (November to February) was identified with the highest risk observed in January. The risk for introduction of LPAI viruses in this period was on average four times significantly higher than the period of low risk around the summer months. Although the data for HPAI infections were limited in the period 2014–2018, a similar risk period for introduction of HPAI viruses was observed. The results of this study can be used to optimize risk‐based surveillance and inform decisions on timing and duration of indoor confinement when HPAI viruses are known to circulate in the wild bird population.

Outbreak Severity of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Viruses Is Inversely Correlated to Polymerase Complex Activity and Interferon Induction

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) viruses first emerged in China in 2010 and in 2014 spread throughout Asia and to Europe and the United States via migrating birds. Influenza A(H5N8) viruses were first detected in the Netherlands in 2014 and caused five outbreaks in poultry farms but were infrequently detected in wild birds. In 2016, influenza A(H5N8) viruses were reintroduced into the Netherlands, resulting in eight poultry farm outbreaks. This outbreak resulted in numerous dead wild birds with severe pathology. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the polymerase genes of these viruses had undergone extensive reassortment between outbreaks. Here, we investigated the differences in virulence between the 2014-15 and the 2016-17 outbreaks by characterizing the polymerase complex of influenza A(H5N8) viruses from both outbreaks. We found that viruses from the 2014-15 outbreak had significantly higher polymerase complex activity in both human and avian cell lines than did those from the 2016-17 outbreak. No apparent differences in the balance between transcription and replication of the viral genome were observed. Interestingly, the 2014-15 polymerase complexes induced significantly higher levels of interferon beta (IFN-β) than the polymerase complexes of the 2016-17 outbreak viruses, mediated via retinoic acid-inducible gene I (RIG-I). Inoculation of primary duck cells with recombinant influenza A(H5N8) viruses, including viruses with reassorted polymerase complexes, showed that the polymerase complexes from the 2014-15 outbreak induced higher levels of IFN-β despite relatively minor differences in replication capacity. Together, these data suggest that despite the lower levels of polymerase activity, the higher 2016-17 influenza A(H5N8) virus virulence may be attributed to the lower level of activation of the innate immune system.IMPORTANCE Compared to the 2014-15 outbreak, the 2016-17 outbreak of influenza A(H5N8) viruses in the Netherlands and Europe was more virulent; the number of dead or diseased wild birds found and the severity of pathological changes were higher during the 2016-17 outbreak. The polymerase complex plays an important role in influenza virus virulence, and the gene segments of influenza A(H5N8) viruses reassorted extensively between the outbreaks. In this study, the 2014-15 polymerase complexes were found to be more active, which is counterintuitive with the observed higher virulence of the 2016-17 outbreak viruses. Interestingly, the 2014-15 polymerase complexes also induced higher levels of IFN-β. These findings suggest that the higher virulence of influenza A(H5N8) viruses from the 2016-17 outbreak may be related to the lower induction of IFN-β. An attenuated interferon response could lead to increased dissemination, pathology, and mortality, as observed in (wild) birds infected during the 2016-2017 outbreak.

Limited changes in the fecal microbiome composition of laying hens after oral inoculation with wild duck feces

Interspecies transmission of fecal microbiota can serve as an indicator for (indirect) contact between domestic and wild animals to assess risks of pathogen transmission, e.g., avian influenza. Here, we investigated whether oral inoculation of laying hens with feces of wild ducks (mallards, Anas platyrhynchos) resulted in a hen fecal microbiome that was detectably altered on community parameters or relative abundances of individual genera. To distinguish between effects of the duck inoculum and effects of the inoculation procedure, we compared the fecal microbiomes of adult laying hens resulting from 3 treatments: inoculation with wild duck feces (duck), inoculation with chicken feces (auto), and a negative control group with no treatment. We collected cloacal swabs from 7 hens per treatment before (day 0), and 2 and 7 D after inoculation, and performed 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. No distinguishable effect of inoculation with duck feces on microbiome community (alpha and beta diversity) was found compared to auto or control treatments. At the individual taxonomic level, the relative abundance of the genus Alistipes (phylum Bacteroidetes) was significantly higher in the inoculated treatments (auto and duck) compared to the control 2 D after inoculation. Seven days after inoculation, the relative abundance of Alistipes had increased in the control and no effect was found anymore across treatments. These effects might be explained by the perturbation of the hen's microbiome caused by the inoculation procedure itself, or by intrinsic temporal variation in the hen's microbiome. This experiment shows that a single inoculation of fecal microbiota from duck feces to laying hens did not cause a measurable alteration of the gut microbiome community. Furthermore, the temporary change in relative abundance forAlistipes could not be attributed to the duck feces inoculation. These outcomes suggest that the fecal microbiome of adult laying hens may not be a useful indicator for detection of single oral exposure to wild duck feces.

A brief history of bird flu

In 1918, a strain of influenza A virus caused a human pandemic resulting in the deaths of 50 million people. A century later, with the advent of sequencing technology and corresponding phylogenetic methods, we know much more about the origins, evolution and epidemiology of influenza epidemics. Here we review the history of avian influenza viruses through the lens of their genetic makeup: from their relationship to human pandemic viruses, starting with the 1918 H1N1 strain, through to the highly pathogenic epidemics in birds and zoonoses up to 2018. We describe the genesis of novel influenza A virus strains by reassortment and evolution in wild and domestic bird populations, as well as the role of wild bird migration in their long-range spread. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the zoonotic incursions of avian H5 and H7 viruses into humans over the last couple of decades are also described. The threat of a new avian influenza virus causing a human pandemic is still present today, although control in domestic avian populations can minimize the risk to human health.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Ducks Are Susceptible to Infection with a Range of Doses of H5N8 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (2016, Clade 2.3.4.4b) and Are Largely Resistant to Virus-Specific Mortality, but Efficiently Transmit Infection to Contact Turkeys

Widespread H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV; clade 2.3.4.4b) infections occurred in wild birds and poultry across Europe during winter 2016-17. Four different doses of H5N8 HPAIV (A/wigeon/Wales/052833/2016 [wg-Wal-16]) were used to infect 23 Pekin ducks divided into four separate pens, with three contact turkeys introduced for cohousing per pen at 1 day postinfection (dpi). All doses resulted in successful duck infection, with four sporadic mortalities recorded among the 23 (17%) infected ducks, which appeared unrelated to the dose. The ducks transmitted wg-Wal-16 efficiently to the contact turkeys; all 12 (100%) turkeys died. Systemic viral dissemination was detected in multiple organs in two duck mortalities, with limited viral dissemination in another duck, which died after resolution of shedding. Systemic viral tropism was observed in two of the turkeys. The study demonstrated the utility of Pekin ducks as surrogates of infected waterfowl to model the wild bird/gallinaceous poultry interface for introduction of H5N8 HPAIV into terrestrial poultry, where contact turkeys served as a susceptible host. Detection of H5N8-specific antibody up to 58 dpi assured the value of serologic surveillance in farmed ducks by hemagglutination inhibition and anti-nucleoprotein ELISAs.

Proceedings Paper-Avian Diseases 10th AI Symposium Issue Development and Application of Real-Time PCR Assays for Specific Detection of Contemporary Avian Influenza Virus Subtypes N5, N6, N7, N8, and N9

Previously published NA subtype-specific real-time reverse-transcriptase PCRs (RRT-PCRs) were further validated for the detection of five avian influenza virus (AIV) NA subtypes, namely N5, N6, N7, N8, and N9. Testing of 30 AIV isolates of all nine NA subtypes informed the assay assessments, with the N5 and N9 RRT-PCRs retained as the original published assays while the N7 and N8 assays were modified in the primer-probe sequences to optimize detection of current threats. The preferred N6 RRT-PCR was either the original or the modified variant, depending on the specific H5N6 lineage. Clinical specimen (n = 137) testing revealed the ability of selected N5, N6, and N8 RRT-PCRs to sensitively detect clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) infections due to H5N5, H5N6, and H5N8 subtypes, respectively, all originating from European poultry and wild bird cases during 2016-2018. Similar testing (n = 32 clinical specimens) also showed the ability of N7 and N9 RRT-PCRs to sensitively detect European H7N7 HPAIV and China-origin H7N9 low pathogenicity AIV infections, respectively.

Pandemic potential of highly pathogenic avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses

The panzootic caused by A/goose/Guangdong/1/96‐lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses has occurred in multiple waves since 1996. From 2013 onwards, clade 2.3.4.4 viruses of subtypes A(H5N2), A(H5N6), and A(H5N8) emerged to cause panzootic waves of unprecedented magnitude among avian species accompanied by severe losses to the poultry industry around the world. Clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses have expanded in distinct geographical and evolutionary pathways likely via long distance migratory bird dispersal onto several continents and by poultry trade among neighboring countries. Coupled with regional circulation, the viruses have evolved further by reassorting with local viruses. As of February 2019, there have been 23 cases of humans infected with clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 viruses, 16 (70%) of which had fatal outcomes. To date, no HPAI A(H5) virus has caused sustainable human‐to‐human transmission. However, due to the lack of population immunity in humans and ongoing evolution of the virus, there is a continuing risk that clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses could cause an influenza pandemic if the ability to transmit efficiently among humans was gained. Therefore, multisectoral collaborations among the animal, environmental, and public health sectors are essential to conduct risk assessments and develop countermeasures to prevent disease and to control spread. In this article, we describe an assessment of the likelihood of clade 2.3.4.4 A(H5) viruses gaining human‐to‐human transmissibility and impact on human health should such human‐to‐human transmission occur. This structured analysis assessed properties of the virus, attributes of the human population, and ecology and epidemiology of these viruses in animal hosts.

Susceptibility of Chickens to Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) Viruses of Wild Bird- and Poultry-Associated Subtypes

Analysis of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses circulating in the Netherlands in a previous study revealed associations of specific hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) subtypes with wild bird or poultry hosts. In this study, we identified putative host associations in LPAI virus internal proteins. We show that LPAI viruses isolated from poultry more frequently carried the allele A variant of the nonstructural protein (NS) gene, compared to wild bird viruses. We determined the susceptibility of chickens to wild bird–associated subtypes H3N8 and H4N6 and poultry-associated subtypes H8N4 and H9N2, carrying either NS allele A or B, in an infection experiment. We observed variations in virus shedding and replication patterns, however, these did not correlate with the predicted wild bird- or poultry-associations of the viruses. The experiment demonstrated that LPAI viruses of wild bird-associated subtypes can replicate in chickens after experimental infection, despite their infrequent detection in poultry. Although the NS1 protein is known to play a role in immune modulation, no differences were detected in the limited innate immune response to LPAI virus infection. This study contributes to a better understanding of the infection dynamics of LPAI viruses in chickens.

Transmission dynamics between infected waterfowl and terrestrial poultry: Differences between the transmission and tropism of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (clade 2.3.4.4a) among ducks, chickens and turkeys

H5N8 highly-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs, clade 2.3.4.4) have spread globally via migratory waterfowl. Pekin ducks infected with a UK virus (H5N8-2014) served as the donors of infection in three separate cohousing experiments to attempt onward transmission chains to sequentially introduced groups of contact ducks, chickens and turkeys. Efficient transmission occurred among ducks and turkeys up to the third contact stage, with all (100%) birds becoming infected. Introduction of an additional fourth contact group of ducks to the turkey transmission chain demonstrated retention of H5N8-2014's waterfowl-competent adaptation. However, onward transmission ceased in chickens at the second contact stage where only 13% became infected. Analysis of viral progeny at this contact stage revealed no emergent polymorphisms in the intra-species (duck) transmission chain, but both terrestrial species included changes in the polymerase and accessory genes. Typical HPAIV pathogenesis and mortality occurred in infected chickens and turkeys, contrasting with 5% mortality among ducks.

Circulation of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands, 2006-2016

In this study, we explore the circulation of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands. Surveillance data collected between 2006 and 2016 was used to evaluate subtype diversity, spatiotemporal distribution and genetic relationships between wild bird and poultry viruses. We observed close species-dependent associations among hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes. Not all subtypes detected in wild birds were found in poultry, suggesting transmission to poultry is selective and likely depends on viral factors that determine host range restriction. Subtypes commonly detected in poultry were in wild birds most frequently detected in mallards and geese. Different temporal patterns in virus prevalence were observed between wild bird species. Virus detections in domestic ducks coincided with the prevalence peak in wild ducks, whereas virus detections in other poultry types were made throughout the year. Genetic analysis of the surface genes demonstrated that most poultry viruses were related to locally circulating wild bird viruses, but no direct spatiotemporal link was observed. Results indicate prolonged undetected virus circulation and frequent reassortment events with local and newly introduced viruses within the wild bird population. Increased knowledge on LPAI virus circulation can be used to improve surveillance strategies.

A study of the relationship between human infection with avian influenza a (H5N6) and environmental avian influenza viruses in Fujian, China

BACKGROUND

Avian influenza A (H5N6) virus poses a great threat to the human health since it is capable to cross the species barrier and infect humans. Although human infections are believed to largely originate from poultry contaminations, the transmissibility is unclear and only limited information was available on poultry environment contaminations, especially in Fujian Province.

METHODS

A total of 4901 environmental samples were collected and tested for Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) from six cities in Fujian Province through the Fujian Influenza Surveillance System from 2013 to 2017. Two patient-related samples were taken from Fujian's first confirmed H5N6 human case and his backyard chicken feces in 2017. Chi-square test or Fisher's exact probability test was used to compare the AIV and the viral subtype positive rates among samples from different Surveillance cities, surveillance sites, sample types, and seasons. Phylogenetic tree analysis and molecular analysis were conducted to track the viral transmission route of the human infection and to map out the evolutions of H5N6 in Fujian.

RESULTS

The overall positive rate of the H5 subtype AIVs was 4.24% (208/4903). There were distinctive differences (p < 0.05) in the positive rates in samples from different cities, sample sites, sample types and seasons. The viruses from the patient and his backyard chicken feces shared high homologies (99.9-100%) in all the eight gene segments. Phylogenetic trees also showed that these two H5N6 viruses were closely related to each other, and were classified into the same genetic clade 2.3.4.4 with another six H5N6 isolates from the environmental samples. The patient's H5N6 virus carried genes from H6N6, H5N8 and H5N6 viruses originated from different areas. The R294K or N294S substitution was not detected in the neuraminidase (NA). The S31 N substitution in the matrix2 (M2) gene was detected but only in one strain from the environmental samples.

CONCLUSIONS

The H5 subtype of AIVs has started circulating in the poultry environments in Fujian Province. The patient's viral strain originated from the chicken feces in his backyard. Genetic reassortment in H5N6 viruses in Fujian Province was indicated. The H5N6 viruses currently circulating in Fujian Province were still commonly sensitive to Oseltamivir and Zanamivir, but the resistance against Amantadine has emerged.

Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N5 Viruses in Europe in 2016-2017 Appears Related to the Timing of Reassortment Events

During the epizootic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 virus in Europe in 2016-2017, HPAI viruses of subtype H5N5 were also isolated. However, the detection of H5N5 viruses was limited compared to H5N8. In this study, we show that the genetic constellation of a newly isolated H5N5 virus is different from two genotypes previously identified in the Netherlands. The introduction and spread of the three H5N5 genotypes in Europe was studied using spatiotemporal and genetic analysis. This demonstrated that the genotypes were isolated in distinguishable phases of the epizootic, and suggested multiple introductions of H5N5 viruses into Europe followed by local spread. We estimated the timing of the reassortment events, which suggested that the genotypes emerged after the start of autumn migration. This may have prevented large-scale spread of the H5N5 viruses on wild bird breeding sites before introduction into Europe. Experiments in primary chicken and duck cells revealed only minor differences in cytopathogenicity and replication kinetics between H5N5 genotypes and H5N8. These results suggest that the limited spread of HPAI H5N5 viruses is related to the timing of the reassortment events rather than changes in virus pathogenicity or replication kinetics.

Genetic analysis identifies potential transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses between poultry farms

Poultry can become infected with low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses via (in)direct contact with infected wild birds or by transmission of the virus between farms. This study combines routinely collected surveillance data with genetic analysis to assess the contribution of between‐farm transmission to the overall incidence of LPAI virus infections in poultry. Over a 10‐year surveillance period, we identified 35 potential cases of between‐farm transmission in the Netherlands, of which 10 formed geographical clusters. A total of 21 LPAI viruses were isolated from nine potential between‐farm transmission cases, which were further studied by genetic and epidemiological analysis. Whole genome sequence analysis identified close genetic links between infected farms in seven cases. The presence of identical deletions in the neuraminidase stalk region and minority variants provided additional indications of between‐farm transmission. Spatiotemporal analysis demonstrated that genetically closely related viruses were detected within a median time interval of 8 days, and the median distance between the infected farms was significantly shorter compared to farms infected with genetically distinct viruses (6.3 versus 69.0 km; p < 0.05). The results further suggest that between‐farm transmission was not restricted to holdings of the same poultry type and not related to the housing system. Although separate introductions from the wild bird reservoir cannot be excluded, our study indicates that between‐farm transmission occurred in seven of nine virologically analysed cases. Based on these findings, it is likely that between‐farm transmission contributes considerably to the incidence of LPAI virus infections in poultry.

Genetic relationship between poultry and wild bird viruses during the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 epidemic in the Netherlands, 2017-2018

In the Netherlands, three commercial poultry farms and two hobby holdings were infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 virus in the winter of 2017-2018. This H5N6 virus is a reassortant of HPAI H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 group B viruses detected in Eurasia in 2016. H5N6 viruses were also detected in several dead wild birds during the winter. However, wild bird mortality was limited compared to the caused by the H5N8 group B virus in 2016-2017. H5N6 virus was not detected in wild birds after March, but in late summer infected wild birds were found again. In this study, the complete genome sequences of poultry and wild bird viruses were determined to study their genetic relationship. Genetic analysis showed that the outbreaks in poultry were not the result of farm-to-farm transmissions, but rather resulted from separate introductions from wild birds. Wild birds infected with viruses related to the first outbreak in poultry were found at short distances from the farm, within a short time frame. However, no wild bird viruses related to outbreaks 2 and 3 were detected. The H5N6 virus isolated in summer shares a common ancestor with the virus detected in outbreak 1. This suggests long-term circulation of H5N6 virus in the local wild bird population. In addition, the pathogenicity of H5N6 virus in ducks was determined, and compared to that of H5N8 viruses detected in 2014 and 2016. A similar high pathogenicity was measured for H5N6 and H5N8 group B viruses, suggesting that biological or ecological factors in the wild bird population may have affected the mortality rates during the H5N6 epidemic. These observations suggest different infection dynamics for the H5N6 and H5N8 group B viruses in the wild bird population.

Modelling the impact of biosecurity practices on the risk of high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Australian commercial chicken farms

As of 2018, Australia has experienced seven outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry since 1976, all of which involved chickens. There is concern that increases in free-range farming could heighten HPAI outbreak risk due to the potential for greater contact between chickens and wild birds that are known to carry low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). We use mathematical models to assess the effect of a shift to free-range farming on the risk of HPAI outbreaks of H5 or H7 in the Australian commercial chicken industry, and the potential for intervention strategies to reduce this risk. We find that a shift of 25% of conventional indoor farms to free-range farming practices would result in a 6-7% increase in the risk of a HPAI outbreak. Current practices to treat water are highly effective, reducing the risk of outbreaks by 25-28% compared to no water treatment. Halving wild bird presence in feed storage areas could reduce risk by 16-19% while halving wild bird access of potential bridge-species to sheds could reduce outbreak risk by 23-25%, and relatively small improvements in biosecurity measures could entirely compensate for increased risks due to the increasing proportion of free-range farms in the industry. The short production cycle and cleaning practices for chicken meat sheds considerably reduce the risk that an introduced low pathogenic avian influenza virus is maintained in the flock until it is detected as HPAI through increased mortality of chickens. These findings help explain HPAI outbreak history in Australia and suggest practical changes in biosecurity practices that could reduce the risk of future outbreaks.

Protective Measures for Humans against Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Outbreaks in 22 European Union/European Economic Area Countries and Israel, 2016-17

We sought to better understand national approaches for managing potential human health risks during outbreaks of infection with avian influenza A(H5N8) virus during 2016–17. Twenty-three countries in the Union/European Economic Area and Israel participated in this study. Risk to the general public was assessed as low in 18 countries and medium in 1 country. Of 524 exposed persons identified, 274 were passively monitored and 250 were actively monitored. Of 29 persons tested, all were negative for H5N8 virus. Vaccination and antiviral drug recommendations varied across countries. A high level of personal protection was recommended although a low risk was assessed. No transmission of this virus to humans was identified.

Molecular characterization of H10 subtype avian influenza viruses isolated from poultry in Eastern China

In recent years, avian-origin H10 influenza viruses have proved capable of infecting human beings, and they pose a potential public health threat. Seven H10 avian influenza viruses (AIVs), H10N3 (n = 2), H10N7 (n = 1), and H10N8 (n = 4), were isolated from chickens in Zhejiang Province, Eastern China, during surveillance of AIVs in live poultry markets in 2016 and 2017. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that Zhejiang H10 strains received gene segments from H10, H3, and H7 viruses from birds in East Asia. Animal inoculation tests showed that these isolates have low pathogenicity in mice and can replicate in this species. Our findings suggest these H10 AIVs have the ability to adapt to chicken or other poultry, and highlight the need of long-term surveillance.

Avian influenza virus ecology and evolution through a climatic lens

Avian influenza virus (AIV) is a major health threat to both avian and human populations. The ecology of the virus is driven by numerous factors, including climate and avian migration patterns, yet relatively little is known about these drivers. Long-distance transport of the virus is tied to inter- and intra-continental bird migration, while enhanced viral reassortment is linked to breeding habitats in Beringia shared by migrant species from North America and Asia. Furthermore, water temperature, pH, salinity, and co-existing biota all impact the viability and persistence of the virus in the environment. Changes in climate can potentially alter the ecology of AIV through multiple pathways. Warming temperatures can change the timing and patterns of bird migration, creating novel assemblages of species and new opportunities for viral transport and reassortment. Water temperature and chemistry may also be altered, resulting in changes in virus survival. In this review, we explain how these shifts have the potential to increase viral persistence, pathogenicity, and transmissibility and amplify the threat of pandemic disease in animal and human hosts. Better understanding of climatic influences on viral ecology is essential to developing strategies to limit adverse health effects in humans and animals.

Multiple Reassorted Viruses as Cause of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus Epidemic, the Netherlands, 2016

In 2016, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N8 in the Netherlands caused mass deaths among wild birds, and several commercial poultry farms and captive bird holdings were affected. We performed complete genome sequencing to study the relationship between the wild bird and poultry viruses. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the viruses are related to H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses detected in Russia in May 2016 but contained novel polymerase basic 2 and nucleoprotein gene segments and 2 different variants of the polymerase acidic segment. Molecular dating suggests that the reassortment events most likely occurred in wild birds in Russia or Mongolia. Furthermore, 2 genetically distinct H5N5 reassortant viruses were detected in wild birds in the Netherlands. Our study provides evidence for fast and continuing reassortment of H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, which might lead to rapid changes in virus characteristics, such as pathogenicity, infectivity, transmission, and zoonotic potential.

Deaths among Wild Birds during Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus Outbreak, the Netherlands

During autumn-winter 2016-2017, highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) viruses caused mass die-offs among wild birds in the Netherlands. Among the ≈13,600 birds reported dead, most were tufted ducks (Aythya fuligula) and Eurasian wigeons (Anas penelope). Recurrence of avian influenza outbreaks might alter wild bird population dynamics.

Effective thresholds for reporting suspicions and improve early detection of avian influenza outbreaks in layer chickens

The objective of this study was to identify effective reporting thresholds for suspicions of both highly pathogenic (HPAI) and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks in layer farms. Daily mortality and egg-production data from 30 Dutch farms with no record of AI infection were analysed and thresholds set. Mortality rates above or egg-production below these thresholds for two consecutive days would trigger an alarm sign. The following thresholds were identified for mortality: (i) A mortality threshold of 0.08% or 0.13% for layers kept indoors or with free-range access respectively, (ii) a 2.9 times higher mortality than the average weekly mortality of the previous week, and iii) a moving-average threshold that could be implemented for each specific farm. For egg-production: (i) a weekly ratio lower than 0.94 in egg-production drop, and (ii) a moving-average threshold. The accuracy of these thresholds was assessed by quantifying their sensitivity, specificity and time to trigger disease detection using data from 15 infected and 31 non-infected farms. New thresholds were more sensitive and signalled infection two to six days earlier than the presently used thresholds. A high Specificity (97–100%) was obtained by combining mortality and egg production thresholds in a serial approach to trigger an alarm.

Risk for Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus on Poultry Farms, the Netherlands, 2007-2013

Using annual serologic surveillance data from all poultry farms in the Netherlands during 2007–2013, we quantified the risk for the introduction of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) in different types of poultry production farms and putative spatial-environmental risk factors: distance from poultry farms to clay soil, waterways, and wild waterfowl areas. Outdoor-layer, turkey (meat and breeder), and duck (meat and breeder) farms had a significantly higher risk for LPAIV introduction than did indoor-layer farms. Except for outdoor-layer, all poultry types (i.e., broilers, chicken breeders, ducks, and turkeys) are kept indoors. For all production types, LPAIV risk decreased significantly with increasing distance to medium-sized waterways and with increasing distance to areas with defined wild waterfowl, but only for outdoor-layer and turkey farms. Future research should focus not only on production types but also on distance to waterways and wild bird areas. In addition, settlement of new poultry farms in high-risk areas should be discouraged.

Novel Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N6) Virus in the Netherlands, December 2017

A novel highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N6) virus affecting wild birds and commercial poultry was detected in the Netherlands in December 2017. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the virus is a reassortant of H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses and not related to the Asian H5N6 viruses that caused human infections.

Isolation and characterization of an avian-origin H3N8 canine influenza virus from a dog in eastern China

Previous studies have shown that dogs are susceptible to influenza A viruses, and the close contact between dogs and humans poses a threat to public health. In 2015, a novel H3N8 influenza virus was isolated from a dog in eastern China. This strain was characterized by whole-genome sequencing with subsequent phylogenetic analysis and genetic comparison and found to be most closely related to avian influenza viruses co-circulating in China. It was able to replicate in mice without prior adaptation. The continued circulation of this novel H3N8 influenza virus in dogs could endanger other mammalian species.

Comparison of the pathogenic potential of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6, and H5N8 viruses isolated in South Korea during the 2016-2017 winter season

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6) and A(H5N8) virus infections resulted in the culling of more than 37 million poultry in the Republic of Korea during the 2016/17 winter season. Here we characterize two representative viruses, A/Environment/Korea/W541/2016 [Em/W541(H5N6)] and A/Common Teal/Korea/W555/2017 [CT/W555(H5N8)], and evaluate their zoonotic potential in various animal models. Both Em/W541(H5N6) and CT /W555(H5N8) are novel reassortants derived from various gene pools of wild bird viruses present in migratory waterfowl arising from eastern China. Despite strong preferential binding to avian virus–type receptors, the viruses were able to grow in human respiratory tract tissues. Em/W541(H5N6) was found to be highly pathogenic in both chickens and ducks, while CT/W555(H5N8) caused lethal infections in chickens but did not induce remarkable clinical illness in ducks. In mice, both viruses appeared to be moderately pathogenic and displayed limited tissue tropism relative to HPAI H5N1 viruses. Em/W541(H5N6) replicated to moderate levels in the upper respiratory tract of ferrets and was detected in the lungs, brain, spleen, liver, and colon. Unexpectedly, two of three ferrets in direct contact with Em/W541(H5N6)-infected animals shed virus and seroconverted at 14 dpi. CT/W555(H5N8) was less pathogenic than the H5N6 virus in ferrets and no transmission was detected. Given the co-circulation of different, phenotypically distinct, subtypes of HPAI H5Nx viruses for the first time in South Korea, detailed virologic investigations are imperative given the capacity of these viruses to evolve and cause human infections.

Local amplification of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 viruses in wild birds in the Netherlands, 2016 to 2017

IntroductionHighly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of subtype H5N8 were re-introduced into the Netherlands by late 2016, after detections in south-east Asia and Russia. This second H5N8 wave resulted in a large number of outbreaks in poultry farms and the deaths of large numbers of wild birds in multiple European countries. Methods: Here we report on the detection of HPAI H5N8 virus in 57 wild birds of 12 species sampled during active (32/5,167) and passive (25/36) surveillance activities, i.e. in healthy and dead animals respectively, in the Netherlands between 8 November 2016 and 31 March 2017. Moreover, we further investigate the experimental approach of wild bird serology as a contributing tool in HPAI outbreak investigations. Results: In contrast to the first H5N8 wave, local virus amplification with associated wild bird mortality has occurred in the Netherlands in 2016/17, with evidence for occasional gene exchange with low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses. Discussion: These apparent differences between outbreaks and the continuing detections of HPAI viruses in Europe are a cause of concern. With the current circulation of zoonotic HPAI and LPAI virus strains in Asia, increased understanding of the drivers responsible for the global spread of Asian poultry viruses via wild birds is needed.

Avian influenza

Previous introductions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) to the EU were most likely via migratory wild birds. A mathematical model has been developed which indicated that virus amplification and spread may take place when wild bird populations of sufficient size within EU become infected. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) may reach similar maximum prevalence levels in wild bird populations to HPAIV but the risk of LPAIV infection of a poultry holding was estimated to be lower than that of HPAIV. Only few non-wild bird pathways were identified having a non-negligible risk of AI introduction. The transmission rate between animals within a flock is assessed to be higher for HPAIV than LPAIV. In very few cases, it could be proven that HPAI outbreaks were caused by intrinsic mutation of LPAIV to HPAIV but current knowledge does not allow a prediction as to if, and when this could occur. In gallinaceous poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality was identified as the most effective method for early detection of HPAI outbreaks. For effective surveillance in anseriform poultry, passive surveillance through notification of suspicious clinical signs/mortality needs to be accompanied by serological surveillance and/or a virological surveillance programme of birds found dead (bucket sampling). Serosurveillance is unfit for early warning of LPAI outbreaks at the individual holding level but could be effective in tracing clusters of LPAIV-infected holdings. In wild birds, passive surveillance is an appropriate method for HPAIV surveillance if the HPAIV infections are associated with mortality whereas active wild bird surveillance has a very low efficiency for detecting HPAIV. Experts estimated and emphasised the effect of implementing specific biosecurity measures on reducing the probability of AIV entering into a poultry holding. Human diligence is pivotal to select, implement and maintain specific, effective biosecurity measures.

Five distinct reassortants of H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses affected Japan during the winter of 2016-2017

To elucidate the evolutionary pathway, we sequenced the entire genomes of 89 H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) isolated in Japan during winter 2016-2017 and 117 AIV/HPAIVs isolated in Japan and Russia. Phylogenetic analysis showed that at least 5 distinct genotypes of H5N6 HPAIVs affected poultry and wild birds during that period. Japanese H5N6 isolates shared a common genetic ancestor in 6 of 8 genomic segments, and the PA and NS genes demonstrated 4 and 2 genetic origins, respectively. Six gene segments originated from a putative ancestral clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 virus that was a possible genetic reassortant among Chinese clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 HPAIVs. In addition, 2 NS clusters and a PA cluster in Japanese H5N6 HPAIVs originated from Chinese HPAIVs, whereas 3 distinct AIV-derived PA clusters were evident. These results suggest that migratory birds were important in the spread and genetic diversification of clade 2.3.4.4 H5 HPAIVs.

Virulence of an H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza is enhanced by the amino acid substitutions PB2 E627K and HA A149V

A novel reassortant H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus was recently identified in Asia, Europe, and North America. The H5N8 HPAI virus has raised serious concerns regarding the potential risk for human infection. However, the molecular changes responsible for allowing mammalian infection in H5N8 HPAI viruses are not clear. The objective of this study was to identify amino acid substitutions that are potentially associated with the adaptation of H5N8 HPAI viruses to mammals. In this study, an avian-origin H5N8 virus was adapted to mice through serial lung-to-lung passage. The virulence of mouse-adapted virus was increased and adaptive mutations, HA (A149V) and PB2 (E627K), were detected after the ninth passage in each series of mice. Reverse genetics were used to generate reassortants of the wild type and mouse-adapted viruses. Substitutions in the HA (A149V) and PB2 (E627K) proteins led to enhanced viral virulence in mice, the viruses displayed expanded tissue tropism, and increased replication kinetics in mammalian cells. Continued surveillance in poultry for amino acid changes that might indicate H5N8 HPAI viruses pose a threat to human health is required.

Genetic characterisation of novel, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 viruses isolated in birds, South Korea, November 2016

A novel genotype of H5N6 influenza viruses was isolated from migratory birds in South Korea during November 2016. Domestic outbreaks of this virus were associated with die-offs of wild birds near reported poultry cases in Chungbuk province, central South Korea. Genetic analysis and animal studies demonstrated that the Korean H5N6 viruses are highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses and that these viruses are novel reassortants of at least three different subtypes (H5N6, H4N2 and H1N1).