Monitoring avian influenza A(H7N9) virus through national influenza-like illness surveillance, China

Developing a Research Network of Early Warning Systems for Infectious Diseases Transmission Between China and Australia

This article offers a thorough review of current early warning systems (EWS) and advocates for establishing a unified research network for EWS in infectious diseases between China and Australia. We propose that future research should focus on improving infectious disease surveillance by integrating data from both countries to enhance predictive models and intervention strategies. The article highlights the need for standardized data formats and terminologies, improved surveillance capabilities, and the development of robust spatiotemporal predictive models. It concludes by examining the potential benefits and challenges of this collaborative approach and its implications for global infectious disease surveillance. This is particularly relevant to the ongoing project, early warning systems for Infectious Diseases between China and Australia (NetEWAC), which aims to use seasonal influenza as a case study to analyze influenza trends, peak activities, and potential inter-hemispheric transmission patterns. The project seeks to integrate data from both hemispheres to improve outbreak predictions and develop a spatiotemporal predictive modeling system for seasonal influenza transmission based on socio-environmental factors.

Wild animal and zoonotic disease risk management and regulation in China: Examining gaps and One Health opportunities in scope, mandates, and monitoring systems

Emerging diseases of zoonotic origin such as COVID-19 are a continuing public health threat in China that lead to a significant socioeconomic burden. This study reviewed the current laws and regulations, government reports and policy documents, and existing literature on zoonotic disease preparedness and prevention across the forestry, agriculture, and public health authorities in China, to articulate the current landscape of potential risks, existing mandates, and gaps. A total of 55 known zoonotic diseases (59 pathogens) are routinely monitored under a multi-sectoral system among humans and domestic and wild animals in China. These diseases have been detected in wild mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish or other aquatic animals, the majority of which are transmitted between humans and animals via direct or indirect contact and vectors. However, this current monitoring system covers a limited scope of disease threats and animal host species, warranting expanded review for sources of disease and pathogen with zoonotic potential. In addition, the governance of wild animal protection and utilization and limited knowledge about wild animal trade value chains present challenges for zoonotic disease risk assessment and monitoring, and affect the completeness of mandates and enforcement. A coordinated and collaborative mechanism among different departments is required for the effective monitoring and management of disease emergence and transmission risks in the animal value chains. Moreover, pathogen surveillance among wild animal hosts and human populations outside of the routine monitoring system will fill the data gaps and improve our understanding of future emerging zoonotic threats to achieve disease prevention. The findings and recommendations will advance One Health collaboration across government and non-government stakeholders to optimize monitoring and surveillance, risk management, and emergency responses to known and novel zoonotic threats, and support COVID-19 recovery efforts.

H7N9 Influenza Virus in China

In early 2013, human infections caused by a novel H7N9 avian influenza virus (AIV) were first reported in China; these infections caused severe disease and death. The virus was initially low pathogenic to poultry, enabling it to spread widely in different provinces, especially in live poultry markets. Importantly, the H7N9 low pathogenic AIVs (LPAIVs) evolved into highly pathogenic AIVs (HPAIVs) in the beginning of 2017, causing a greater threat to human health and devastating losses to the poultry industry. Fortunately, nationwide vaccination of chickens with an H5/H7 bivalent inactivated avian influenza vaccine since September 2017 has successfully controlled H7N9 avian influenza infections in poultry and, importantly, has also prevented human infections. In this review, we summarize the biological properties of the H7N9 viruses, specifically their genetic evolution, adaptation, pathogenesis, receptor binding, transmission, drug resistance, and antigenic variation, as well as the prevention and control measures. The information obtained from investigating and managing the H7N9 viruses could improve our ability to understand other novel AIVs and formulate effective measures to control their threat to humans and animals.

The Epidemiology, Virology, and Pathogenicity of Human Infections with Avian Influenza Viruses

Influenza is a global challenge, and future pandemics of influenza are inevitable. One of the lessons learned from past pandemics is that all pandemic influenza viruses characterized to date possess viral genes originating from avian influenza viruses (AIVs). During the past decades, a wide range of AIVs have overcome the species barrier and infected humans with different clinical manifestations ranging from mild illness to severe disease and even death. Understanding the mechanisms of infection in the context of clinical outcomes, the mechanism of interspecies transmission, and the molecular determinants that confer interspecies transmission is important for pandemic preparedness. Here, we summarize the epidemiology, virology, and pathogenicity of human infections with AIVs to further our understanding of interspecies transmission.

A ten-year China-US laboratory collaboration: improving response to influenza threats in China and the world, 2004-2014

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) underscored the importance of influenza detection and response in China. From 2004, the Chinese National Influenza Center (CNIC) and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USCDC) initiated Cooperative Agreements to build capacity in influenza surveillance in China.From 2004 to 2014, CNIC and USCDC collaborated on the following activities: 1) developing human technical expertise in virology and epidemiology in China; 2) developing a comprehensive influenza surveillance system by enhancing influenza-like illness (ILI) reporting and virological characterization; 3) strengthening analysis, utilization and dissemination of surveillance data; and 4) improving early response to influenza viruses with pandemic potential.Since 2004, CNIC expanded its national influenza surveillance and response system which, as of 2014, included 408 laboratories and 554 sentinel hospitals. With support from USCDC, more than 2500 public health staff from China received virology and epidemiology training, enabling > 98% network laboratories to establish virus isolation and/or nucleic acid detection techniques. CNIC established viral drug resistance surveillance and platforms for gene sequencing, reverse genetics, serologic detection, and vaccine strains development. CNIC also built a bioinformatics platform to strengthen data analysis and utilization, publishing weekly on-line influenza surveillance reports in English and Chinese. The surveillance system collects 200,000-400,000 specimens and tests more than 20,000 influenza viruses annually, which provides valuable information for World Health Organization (WHO) influenza vaccine strain recommendations. In 2010, CNIC became the sixth WHO Collaborating Centre for Influenza. CNIC has strengthened virus and data sharing, and has provided training and reagents for other countries to improve global capacity for influenza control and prevention.The collaboration's successes were built upon shared mission and values, emphasis on long-term capacity development and sustainability, and leadership commitment.

Effect of meteorological factors on influenza-like illness from 2012 to 2015 in Huludao, a northeastern city in China

Background

This study aims to describe the epidemiological patterns of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Huludao, China and seek scientific evidence on the link of ILI activity with weather factors.

Methods

Surveillance data of ILI cases between January 2012 and December 2015 was collected in Huludao Central Hospital, meteorological data was obtained from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to seek the relationship between the number of ILI cases and the meteorological factors. Multiple Smoothing parameter estimation was made on the basis of Poisson distribution, where the number of weekly ILI cases was treated as response, and the smoothness of weather was treated as covariates. Lag time was determined by the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC). Smoothing coefficients were estimated for the prediction of the number of ILI cases.

Results

A total of 29, 622 ILI cases were observed during the study period, with children ILI cases constituted 86.77%. The association between ILI activity and meteorological factors varied across different lag periods. The lag time for average air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, vapor pressure and relative humidity were 2, 2, 1, 1 and 0 weeks, respectively. Average air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, vapor pressure and relative humidity could explain 16.5%, 9.5%, 18.0%, 15.9% and 7.7% of the deviance, respectively. Among the temperature indexes, the minimum temperature played the most important role. The number of ILI cases peaked when minimum temperature was around -13 °C in winter and 18 °C in summer. The number of cases peaked when the relative humidity was equal to 43% and then began to decrease with the increase of relative humidity. When the humidity exceeded 76%, the number of ILI cases began to rise.

Conclusions

The present study first analyzed the relationship between meteorological factors and ILI cases with special consideration of the length of lag period in Huludao, China. Low air temperature and low relative humidity (cold and dry weather condition) played a considerable role in the epidemic pattern of ILI cases. The trend of ILI activity could be possibly predicted by the variation of meteorological factors.

Avian Influenza A Virus Infection among Workers at Live Poultry Markets, China, 2013-2016

We conducted a 3-year longitudinal serologic survey on an open cohort of poultry workers, swine workers, and general population controls to assess avian influenza A virus (AIV) seroprevalence and seroincidence and virologic diversity at live poultry markets (LPMs) in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, China. Of 964 poultry workers, 9 (0.93%) were seropositive for subtype H7N9 virus, 18 (1.87%) for H9N2, and 18 (1.87%) for H5N1. Of 468 poultry workers followed longitudinally, 2 (0.43%), 13 (2.78%), and 7 (1.5%) seroconverted, respectively; incidence was 1.27, 8.28, and 4.46/1,000 person-years for H7N9, H9N2, and H5N1 viruses, respectively. Longitudinal surveillance of AIVs at 9 LPMs revealed high co-circulation of H9, H7, and H5 subtypes. We detected AIVs in 726 (23.3%) of 3,121 samples and identified a high diversity (10 subtypes) of new genetic constellations and reassortant viruses. These data suggest that stronger surveillance for AIVs within LPMs and high-risk populations is imperative.

Preliminary Epidemiologic Assessment of Human Infections With Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N6) Virus, China

Background

Since 2014, 17 human cases of infection with the newly emerged highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N6) virus have been identified in China to date. The epidemiologic characteristics of laboratory-confirmed A(H5N6) cases were compared to A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) cases in mainland China.

Methods

Data on laboratory-confirmed H5N6, H5N1, and H7N9 cases identified in mainland China were analyzed to compare epidemiologic characteristics and clinical severity. Severity of confirmed H5N6, H5N1 and H7N9 cases was estimated based on the risk of severe outcomes in hospitalized cases.

Results

H5N6 cases were older than H5N1 cases with a higher prevalence of underlying medical conditions but younger than H7N9 cases. Epidemiological time-to-event distributions were similar among cases infected with the 3 viruses. In comparison to a fatality risk of 70% (30/43) for hospitalized H5N1 cases and 41% (319/782) for hospitalized H7N9 cases, 12 (75%) out of the 16 hospitalized H5N6 cases were fatal, and 15 (94%) required mechanical ventilation.

Conclusion

Similar epidemiologic characteristics and high severity were observed in cases of H5N6 and H5N1 virus infection, whereas severity of H7N9 virus infections appeared lower. Continued surveillance of human infections with avian influenza A viruses remains an essential component of pandemic influenza preparedness.

Comparing the similarity and difference of three influenza surveillance systems in China

Three main surveillance systems (laboratory-confirmed, influenza-like illness (ILI) and nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS)) have been used for influenza surveillance in China. However, it is unclear which surveillance system is more reliable in developing influenza early warning system based on surveillance data. This study aims to evaluate the similarity and difference of the three surveillance systems and provide practical knowledge for improving the effectiveness of influenza surveillance. Weekly influenza data for the three systems were obtained from March 2010 to February 2015. Spearman correlation and time series seasonal decomposition were used to assess the relationship between the three surveillance systems and to explore seasonal patterns and characteristics of influenza epidemics in Gansu, China. Our results showed influenza epidemics appeared a single-peak around January in all three surveillance systems. Time series seasonal decomposition analysis demonstrated a similar seasonal pattern in the three systems, while long-term trends were observed to be different. Our research suggested that a combination of the NIDRIS together with ILI and laboratory-confirmed surveillance is an informative, comprehensive way to monitor influenza transmission in Gansu, China. These results will provide a useful information for developing influenza early warning systems based on influenza surveillance data.

Preliminary Epidemiology of Human Infections with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus, China, 2017

We compared the characteristics of cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H7N9) virus infections in China. HPAI A(H7N9) case-patients were more likely to have had exposure to sick and dead poultry in rural areas and were hospitalized earlier than were LPAI A(H7N9) case-patients.

History and current trends in influenza virus infections with special reference to Sri Lanka

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that approximately one billion people are infected and up to 500,000 people die from influenza each year in the world. Influenza is considered to be the greatest killer of the human populations, due to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed millions around the world. Despite the effective treatment available against influenza, it still contributes to significant morbidity and mortality. Currently circulating influenza strains in humans include influenza A (H1N1)pdm09, influenza A (H3N2) and influenza B viruses, (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata). Influenza has been prevalent in Sri Lanka from 1969, since then it continued to cause morbidity and mortality in children and adults. The current global influenza surveillance network monitors the global influenza activity through WHO collaborating centres. The Medical Research Institute monitors and diagnoses influenza cases in the country as part of the WHO network laboratories. Vaccinations to high risk groups and antiviral therapy for the successful prevention of influenza have been practiced in Sri Lanka. This review highlights the impact of influenza on public health in Sri Lanka including the historical aspects, current diagnostic practices and prevention approaches in high risk individuals in the country.

Epidemiology of avian influenza A H7N9 virus in human beings across five epidemics in mainland China, 2013-17: an epidemiological study of laboratory-confirmed case series

BACKGROUND

The avian influenza A H7N9 virus has caused infections in human beings in China since 2013. A large epidemic in 2016-17 prompted concerns that the epidemiology of the virus might have changed, increasing the threat of a pandemic. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, clinical severity, and time-to-event distributions of patients infected with A H7N9 in the 2016-17 epidemic compared with previous epidemics.

METHODS

In this epidemiological study, we obtained information about all laboratory-confirmed human cases of A H7N9 virus infection reported in mainland China as of Feb 23, 2017, from an integrated electronic database managed by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and provincial CDCs. Every identified human case of A H7N9 virus infection was required to be reported to China CDC within 24 h via a national surveillance system for notifiable infectious diseases. We described the epidemiological characteristics across epidemics, and estimated the risk of death, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients admitted to hospital for routine clinical practice rather than for isolation purpose. We estimated the incubation periods, and time delays from illness onset to hospital admission, illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment, and hospital admission to death or discharge using survival analysis techniques.

FINDINGS

Between Feb 19, 2013, and Feb 23, 2017, 1220 laboratory-confirmed human infections with A H7N9 virus were reported in mainland China, with 134 cases reported in the spring of 2013, 306 in 2013-14, 219 in 2014-15, 114 in 2015-16, and 447 in 2016-17. The 2016-17 A H7N9 epidemic began earlier, spread to more districts and counties in affected provinces, and had more confirmed cases than previous epidemics. The proportion of cases in middle-aged adults increased steadily from 41% (55 of 134) to 57% (254 of 447) from the first epidemic to the 2016-17 epidemic. Proportions of cases in semi-urban and rural residents in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 epidemics (63% [72 of 114] and 61% [274 of 447], respectively) were higher than those in the first three epidemics (39% [52 of 134], 55% [169 of 306], and 56% [122 of 219], respectively). The clinical severity of individuals admitted to hospital in the 2016-17 epidemic was similar to that in the previous epidemics.

INTERPRETATION

Age distribution and case sources have changed gradually across epidemics since 2013, while clinical severity has not changed substantially. Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts are needed to minimise the risk of human infection with A H7N9 virus.

FUNDING

The National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars.

The ecology of avian influenza viruses in wild dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) in Canada

Avian influenza virus (AIV) occurrence and transmission remain important wildlife and human health issues in much of the world, including in North America. Through Canada’s Inter-Agency Wild Bird Influenza Survey, close to 20,000 apparently healthy, wild dabbling ducks (of seven species) were tested for AIV between 2005 and 2011. We used these data to identify and evaluate ecological and demographic correlates of infection with low pathogenic AIVs in wild dabbling ducks (Anas spp.) across Canada. Generalized linear mixed effects model analyses revealed that risk of AIV infection was higher in hatch-year birds compared to adults, and was positively associated with a high proportion of hatch-year birds in the population. Males were more likely to be infected than females in British Columbia and in Eastern Provinces of Canada, but more complex relationships among age and sex cohorts were found in the Prairie Provinces. A species effect was apparent in Eastern Canada and British Columbia, where teal (A. discors and/or A. carolinensis) were less likely to be infected than mallards (A. platyrhynchos). Risk of AIV infection increased with the density of the breeding population, in both Eastern Canada and the Prairie Provinces, and lower temperatures preceding sampling were associated with a higher probability of AIV infection in Eastern Canada. Our results provide new insights into the ecological and demographic factors associated with AIV infection in waterfowl.

Sero-epidemiologic study of influenza A(H7N9) infection among exposed populations, China 2013-2014

Background

The first human infections of novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus were identified in China in March 2013. Sentinel surveillance systems and contact tracing may not identify mild and asymptomatic human infections of influenza A(H7N9) virus.

Objectives

We assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies to influenza A(H7N9) virus in three populations during the early stages of the epidemic.

Patients/Methods

From March 2013 to May 2014, we collected sera from the general population, poultry workers, and contacts of confirmed infections in nine Chinese provinces reporting human A(H7N9) infections and, for contacts, second sera 2‐3 weeks later. We screened for A(H7N9) antibodies by advanced hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and tested sera with HI titers ≥20 by modified microneutralization (MN) assay. MN titers ≥20 or fourfold increases in paired sera were considered seropositive.

Results

Among general population sera (n=1480), none were seropositive. Among poultry worker sera (n=1866), 28 had HI titers ≥20; two (0.11%, 95% CI: 0.02‐0.44) were positive by MN. Among 61 healthcare and 117 non‐healthcare contacts’ sera, five had HI titers ≥20, and all were negative by MN. There was no seroconversion among 131 paired sera.

Conclusions

There was no evidence of widespread transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus during March 2013 to May 2014, although A(H7N9) may have caused rare, previously unrecognized infections among poultry workers. Although the findings suggest that there were few undetected cases of influenza A(H7N9) early in the epidemic, it is important to continue monitoring transmission as virus and epidemic evolve.

Sudden increase in human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, September-December 2016

Since the first outbreak of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in humans was identified in 2013, there have been five seasonal epidemics observed in China. An earlier start and a steep increase in the number of humans infected with H7N9 virus was observed between September and December 2016, raising great public concern in domestic and international societies. The epidemiological characteristics of the recently reported confirmed H7N9 cases were analysed. The results suggested that although more cases were reported recently, most cases in the fifth epidemic were still highly sporadically distributed without any epidemiology links; the main characteristics remained unchanged and the genetic characteristics of virus strains that were isolated in this epidemic remained similar to earlier epidemics. Interventions included live poultry market closures in several cities that reported more H7N9 cases recently.

Comparison of the first three waves of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus circulation in the mainland of the People's Republic of China

BACKGROUND

H7N9 human cases were first detected in mainland China in March 2013. Circulation of this virus has continued each year shifting to typical winter months. We compared the clinical and epidemiologic characteristics for the first three waves of virus circulation.

METHODS

The first wave was defined as reported cases with onset dates between March 31-September 30, 2013, the second wave was defined as October 1, 2013-September 30, 2014 and the third wave was defined as October 1, 2014-September 30, 2015. We used simple descriptive statistics to compare characteristics of the three distinct waves of virus circulation.

RESULTS

In mainland China, 134 cases, 306 cases and 219 cases were detected and reported in first three waves, respectively. The median age of cases was statistically significantly older in the first wave (61 years vs. 56 years, 56 years, p < 0.001) compared to the following two waves. Most reported cases were among men in all three waves. There was no statistically significant difference between case fatality proportions (33, 42 and 45%, respectively, p = 0.08). There were no significant statistical differences for time from illness onset to first seeking healthcare, hospitalization, lab confirmation, initiation antiviral treatment and death between the three waves. A similar percentage of cases in all waves reported exposure to poultry or live poultry markets (87%, 88%, 90%, respectively). There was no statistically significant difference in the occurrence of severe disease between the each of the first three waves of virus circulation. Twenty-one clusters were reported during these three waves (4, 11 and 6 clusters, respectively), of which, 14 were considered to be possible human-to-human transmission.

CONCLUSION

Though our case investigation for the first three waves found few differences between the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics, there is continued international concern about the pandemic potential of this virus. Since the virus continues to circulate, causes more severe disease, has the ability to mutate and become transmissible from human-to-human, and there is limited natural protection from infection in communities, it is critical that surveillance systems in China and elsewhere are alert to the influenza H7N9 virus.

Population seroprevalence of antibody to influenza A(H7N9) virus, Guangzhou, China

Background

Since the identification in early 2013 of severe disease caused by influenza A(H7N9) virus infection, there have been few attempts to characterize the full severity profile of human infections. Our objective was to estimate the number and severity of H7N9 infections in Guangzhou, using a serological study.

Methods

We collected residual sera from patients of all ages admitted to a hospital in the city of Guangzhou in southern China in 2013 and 2014. We screened the sera using a haemagglutination inhibition assay against a pseudovirus containing the H7 and N9 of A/Anhui/1/2013(H7N9), and samples with a screening titer ≥10 were further tested by standard hemagglutination-inhibition and virus neutralization assays for influenza A(H7N9). We used a statistical model to interpret the information on antibody titers in the residual sera, assuming that the residual sera provided a representative picture of A(H7N9) infections in the general population, accounting for potential cross-reactions.

Results

We collected a total of 5360 residual sera from December 2013 to April 2014 and from October 2014 to December 2014, and found two specimens that tested positive for H7N9 antibody at haemagglutination inhibition titer ≥40 and a neutralization titer ≥40. Based on this, we estimated that 64,000 (95 % credibility interval: 7300, 190,000) human infections with influenza A(H7N9) virus occurred in Guangzhou in early 2014, with an infection-fatality risk of 3.6 deaths (95 % credibility interval: 0.47, 15) per 10,000 infections.

Conclusions

Our study suggested that the number of influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in Guangzhou substantially exceeded the number of laboratory-confirmed cases there, albeit with considerable imprecision. Our study was limited by the small number of positive specimens identified, and larger serologic studies would be valuable. Our analytic framework would be useful if larger serologic studies are done.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1983-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Entry screening for infectious diseases in humans

In response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemic of 2003 and the influenza pandemic of 2009, many countries instituted border measures as a means of stopping or slowing the spread of disease. The measures, usually consisting of a combination of border entry/exit screening, quarantine, isolation, and communications, were resource intensive, and modeling and observational studies indicate that border screening is not effective at detecting infectious persons. Moreover, border screening has high opportunity costs, financially and in terms of the use of scarce public health staff resources during a time of high need. We discuss the border-screening experiences with SARS and influenza and propose an approach to decision-making for future pandemics. We conclude that outbreak-associated communications for travelers at border entry points, together with effective communication with clinicians and more effective disease control measures in the community, may be a more effective approach to the international control of communicable diseases.

Demographic and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Avian Influenza Infection at the Continental Scale, and in Relation to Annual Life Cycle of a Migratory Host

Since the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in the eastern hemisphere, numerous surveillance programs and studies have been undertaken to detect the occurrence, distribution, or spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild bird populations worldwide. To identify demographic determinants and spatiotemporal patterns of AIV infection in long distance migratory waterfowl in North America, we fitted generalized linear models with binominal distribution to analyze results from 13,574 blue-winged teal (Anas discors, BWTE) sampled in 2007 to 2010 year round during AIV surveillance programs in Canada and the United States. Our analyses revealed that during late summer staging (July-August) and fall migration (September-October), hatch year (HY) birds were more likely to be infected than after hatch year (AHY) birds, however there was no difference between age categories for the remainder of the year (winter, spring migration, and breeding period), likely due to maturing immune systems and newly acquired immunity of HY birds. Probability of infection increased non-linearly with latitude, and was highest in late summer prior to fall migration when densities of birds and the proportion of susceptible HY birds in the population are highest. Birds in the Central and Mississippi flyways were more likely to be infected compared to those in the Atlantic flyway. Seasonal cycles and spatial variation of AIV infection were largely driven by the dynamics of AIV infection in HY birds, which had more prominent cycles and spatial variation in infection compared to AHY birds. Our results demonstrate demographic as well as seasonal, latitudinal and flyway trends across Canada and the US, while illustrating the importance of migratory host life cycle and age in driving cyclical patterns of prevalence.

Identification of TMPRSS2 as a Susceptibility Gene for Severe 2009 Pandemic A(H1N1) Influenza and A(H7N9) Influenza

The genetic predisposition to severe A(H1N1)2009 (A[H1N1]pdm09) influenza was evaluated in 409 patients, including 162 cases with severe infection and 247 controls with mild infection. We prioritized candidate variants based on the result of a pilot genome-wide association study and a lung expression quantitative trait locus data set. The GG genotype of rs2070788, a higher-expression variant of TMPRSS2, was a risk variant (odds ratio, 2.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-3.77; P = .01) to severe A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza. A potentially functional single-nucleotide polymorphism, rs383510, accommodated in a putative regulatory region was identified to tag rs2070788. Luciferase assay results showed the putative regulatory region was a functional element, in which rs383510 regulated TMPRSS2 expression in a genotype-specific manner. Notably, rs2070788 and rs383510 were significantly associated with the susceptibility to A(H7N9) influenza in 102 patients with A(H7N9) influenza and 106 healthy controls. Therefore, we demonstrate that genetic variants with higher TMPRSS2 expression confer higher risk to severe A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza. The same variants also increase susceptibility to human A(H7N9) influenza.

An overview of the characteristics of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus in humans

The novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus which caused the first human infection in Shanghai, China; was reported on the 31st of March 2013 before spreading rapidly to other Chinese provinces and municipal cities. This is the first time the low pathogenic avian influenza A virus has caused human infections and deaths; with cases of severe respiratory disease with pneumonia being reported. There were 440 confirmed cases with 122 fatalities by 16 May 2014; with a fatality risk of ∼28%. The median age of patients was 61 years with a male-to-female ratio of 2.4:1. The main source of infection was identified as exposure to poultry and there is so far no definitive evidence of sustained person-to-person transmission. The neuraminidase inhibitors, namely oseltamivir, zanamivir, and peramivir; have shown good efficacy in the management of the novel H7N9 virus. Treatment is recommended for all hospitalized patients, and for confirmed and probable outpatient cases; and should ideally be initiated within 48 h of the onset of illness for the best outcome. Phylogenetic analysis found that the novel H7N9 virus is avian in origin and evolved from multiple reassortments of at least four origins. Indeed the novel H7N9 virus acquired human adaptation via mutations in its eight RNA gene segments. Enhanced surveillance and effective global control are essential to prevent pandemic outbreaks of the novel H7N9 virus.

Avian Influenza Virus Infection of Immortalized Human Respiratory Epithelial Cells Depends upon a Delicate Balance between Hemagglutinin Acid Stability and Endosomal pH

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) virus, H5N1, is a serious threat to public health worldwide. Both the currently circulating H5N1 and previously circulating AI viruses recognize avian-type receptors; however, only the H5N1 is highly infectious and virulent in humans. The mechanism(s) underlying this difference in infectivity remains unclear. The aim of this study was to clarify the mechanisms responsible for the difference in infectivity between the current and previously circulating strains. Primary human small airway epithelial cells (SAECs) were transformed with the SV40 large T-antigen to establish a series of clones (SAEC-Ts). These clones were then used to test the infectivity of AI strains. Human SAEC-Ts could be broadly categorized into two different types based on their susceptibility (high or low) to the viruses. SAEC-T clones were poorly susceptible to previously circulating AI but were completely susceptible to the currently circulating H5N1. The hemagglutinin (HA) of the current H5N1 virus showed greater membrane fusion activity at higher pH levels than that of previous AI viruses, resulting in broader cell tropism. Moreover, the endosomal pH was lower in high susceptibility SAEC-T clones than that in low susceptibility SAEC-T clones. Taken together, the results of this study suggest that the infectivity of AI viruses, including H5N1, depends upon a delicate balance between the acid sensitivity of the viral HA and the pH within the endosomes of the target cell. Thus, one of the mechanisms underlying H5N1 pathogenesis in humans relies on its ability to fuse efficiently with the endosomes in human airway epithelial cells.

Cluster of human infections with avian influenza A (H7N9) cases: a temporal and spatial analysis

Objectives: This study aims to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of human infections with H7N9 virus in China using data from February 2013 to March 2014 from the websites of every province’s Population and Family Planning Commission. Methods: A human infection with H7N9 virus dataset was summarized by county to analyze its spatial clustering, and by date of illness onset to analyze its space-time clustering using the ESRI^® Geographic Information System (GIS) software ArcMap™ 10.1 and SatScan. Results: Based on active surveillance data, the distribution map of H7N9 cases shows that compared to the rest of China, the areas from near the Yangtze River delta (YRD) to farther south around the Pearl River delta (PRD) had the highest densities of H7N9 cases. The case data shows a strong space-time clustering in the areas on and near the YRD from 26 March to 18 April 2013 and a weak space-time clustering only in the areas on and near the PRD between 3 and 4 February 2014. However, for the rest of the study period, H7N9 cases were spatial-temporally randomly distributed. Conclusions: Our results suggested that the spatial-temporal clustering of H7N9 in China between 2013 and 2014 is fundamentally different.

Clinical severity of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, China, 2013/14

Assessing the severity of emerging infections is challenging because of potential biases in case ascertainment. The first human case of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was identified in China in March 2013; since then, the virus has caused two epidemic waves in the country. There were 134 laboratory-confirmed cases detected in the first epidemic wave from January to September 2013. In the second epidemic wave of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China from October 2013 to October 2014, we estimated that the risk of death among hospitalised cases of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was 48% (95% credibility interval: 42-54%), slightly higher than the corresponding risk in the first wave. Age-specific risks of death among hospitalised cases were also significantly higher in the second wave. Using data on symptomatic cases identified through national sentinel influenza-like illness surveillance, we estimated that the risk of death among symptomatic cases of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was 0.10% (95% credibility interval: 0.029-3.6%), which was similar to previous estimates for the first epidemic wave of human infections with influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2013. An increase in the risk of death among hospitalised cases in the second wave could be real because of changes in the virus, because of seasonal changes in host susceptibility to severe infection, or because of variation in treatment practices between hospitals, while the increase could be artefactual because of changes in ascertainment of cases in different areas at different times.

Use of national pneumonia surveillance to describe influenza A(H7N9) virus epidemiology, China, 2004-2013

In mainland China, most avian influenza A(H7N9) cases in the spring of 2013 were reported through the pneumonia of unknown etiology (PUE) surveillance system. To understand the role of possible underreporting and surveillance bias in assessing the epidemiology of subtype H7N9 cases and the effect of live-poultry market closures, we examined all PUE cases reported from 2004 through May 3, 2013. Historically, the PUE system was underused, reporting was inconsistent, and PUE reporting was biased toward A(H7N9)-affected provinces, with sparse data from unaffected provinces; however, we found no evidence that the older ages of persons with A(H7N9) resulted from surveillance bias. The absolute number and the proportion of PUE cases confirmed to be A(H7N9) declined after live-poultry market closures (p<0.001), indicating that market closures might have positively affected outbreak control. In China, PUE surveillance needs to be improved.

Seroprevalence to avian influenza A(H7N9) virus among poultry workers and the general population in southern China: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Confirmed cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in humans continue to occur in mainland China. Few confirmed cases have occurred in poultry workers despite potentially higher rates of exposure.

METHODS

A serological survey was conducted in May and December 2013 in poultry market workers, and in March and September 2013 in the general population. Blood samples were collected and tested for antibodies to H7N9 and H5N1 viruses by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Multivariable analysis was employed to identify risk factors related to H7N9 infection indicated by serology among poultry workers.

RESULTS

In the poultry workers, 36 of 501 (7.2%) in May and 56 of 375 (14.9%) in December had HI antibody titers ≥1:160 to H7N9. Of 96 individuals who participated in both surveys, 52 (54.2%) workers had a ≥4-fold rise in H7N9 antibody titers from May to December. In a multivariable analysis, female sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.713; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.098-6.705) and ≥10 years of occupational exposure (OR, 3.592; 95% CI, 1.246-10.354) were identified as risk factors for infection. Seroprevalence against H5N1 at ≥1:160 was low in May (4/501 [0.8%]) and December (3/375 [0.8%]). In the general population, 0 of 417 individuals in March and 0 of 408 individuals in September had antibody titers ≥1:160 to H7N9 or to H5N1.

CONCLUSIONS

Although none of the participants in our study had virologically confirmed H7N9 infection, the high proportion of poultry workers with serologic evidence of H7N9 infection between May and December 2013 suggests a substantial risk of mild H7N9 infections in this group, supporting stricter control measures in live poultry markets.

Is influenza-like illness a useful concept and an appropriate test of influenza vaccine effectiveness?

PURPOSE

To assess the utility of "influenza-like illness" (ILI) and whether it appropriately tests influenza vaccine effectiveness.

PRINCIPAL RESULTS

The WHO and CDC definitions of "influenza-like illness" are similar. However many studies use other definitions, some not specifying a temperature and requiring specific respiratory and/or systemic symptoms, making many samples non-comparable. Most ILI studies find less than 25% of cases are RT-PCR-positive, those which test for other viruses and bacteria usually find multiple other pathogens, and most identify no pathogen in about 50% of cases. ILI symptom and symptom combinations do not have high sensitivity or specificity in identifying PCR-positive influenza cases. Rapid influenza diagnostic tests are increasingly used to screen ILI cases and they have low sensitivity and high specificity when compared to RT-PCR in identifying influenza.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The working diagnosis of ILI presumes influenza may be involved until proven otherwise. Health care workers would benefit by renaming the WHO and CDC ILI symptoms and signs as "acute respiratory illness" and also using the WHO acute severe respiratory illness definition if the illness is severe and meets this criterion. This renaming would shift attention to identify the viral and bacterial pathogens in cases and epidemics, identify new pathogens, implement vaccination plans appropriate to the identified pathogens, and estimate workload during the viral season. Randomised controlled trials testing the effectiveness of influenza vaccine require all participants to be assessed by a gold standard (RT-PCR). ILI has no role in measuring influenza vaccine effectiveness. ILI is well established in the literature and in the operational definition of many surveillance databases and its imprecise definition may be inhibiting progress in research and treatment. The current ILI definition could with benefit be renamed "acute respiratory illness," with additional definitions for "severe acute respiratory illness" (SARI) with RT-PCR testing for pathogens to facilitate prevention and treatment.

Identifying areas with a high risk of human infection with the avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in East Asia

OBJECTIVES

The rapid emergence, spread, and disease severity of avian influenza A (H7N9) in China has prompted concerns about a possible pandemic and regional spread in the coming months. The objective of this study was to predict the risk of future human infections with H7N9 in China and neighboring countries by assessing the association between H7N9 cases at sentinel hospitals and putative agricultural, climatic, and demographic risk factors.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used the locations of H7N9 cases and negative cases from China's influenza-like illness surveillance network. After identifying H7N9 risk factors with logistic regression, we used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to construct predictive maps of H7N9 risk across Asia.

RESULTS

Live bird market density was associated with human H7N9 infections reported in China from March-May 2013. Based on these cases, our model accurately predicted the virus' spread into Guangxi autonomous region in February 2014. Outside China, we find there is a high risk that the virus will spread to northern Vietnam, due to the import of poultry from China.

CONCLUSIONS

Our risk map can focus efforts to improve surveillance in poultry and humans, which may facilitate early identification and treatment of human cases.

Development of a reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification method for the rapid detection of subtype H7N9 avian influenza virus

A novel influenza A (H7N9) virus has emerged in China. To rapidly detect this virus from clinical samples, we developed a reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) method for the detection of the H7N9 virus. The minimum detection limit of the RT-LAMP assay was 0.01 PFU H7N9 virus, making this method 100-fold more sensitive to the detection of the H7N9 virus than conventional RT-PCR. The H7N9 virus RT-LAMP assays can efficiently detect different sources of H7N9 influenza virus RNA (from chickens, pigeons, the environment, and humans). No cross-reactive amplification with the RNA of other subtype influenza viruses or of other avian respiratory viruses was observed. The assays can effectively detect H7N9 influenza virus RNA in drinking water, soil, cloacal swab, and tracheal swab samples that were collected from live poultry markets, as well as human H7N9 virus, in less than 30 min. These results suggest that the H7N9 virus RT-LAMP assays were efficient, practical, and rapid diagnostic methods for the epidemiological surveillance and diagnosis of influenza A (H7N9) virus from different resource samples.

Epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China

BACKGROUND

The first identified cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in humans occurred in China during February and March 2013. We analyzed data obtained from field investigations to describe the epidemiologic characteristics of H7N9 cases in China identified as of December 1, 2013.

METHODS

Field investigations were conducted for each confirmed case of H7N9 virus infection. A patient was considered to have a confirmed case if the presence of the H7N9 virus was verified by means of real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay (RT-PCR), viral isolation, or serologic testing. Information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines was obtained from patients with confirmed cases. Close contacts were monitored for 7 days for symptoms of illness. Throat swabs were obtained from contacts in whom symptoms developed and were tested for the presence of the H7N9 virus by means of real-time RT-PCR.

RESULTS

Among 139 persons with confirmed H7N9 virus infection, the median age was 61 years (range, 2 to 91), 71% were male, and 73% were urban residents. Confirmed cases occurred in 12 areas of China. Nine persons were poultry workers, and of 131 persons with available data, 82% had a history of exposure to live animals, including chickens (82%). A total of 137 persons (99%) were hospitalized, 125 (90%) had pneumonia or respiratory failure, and 65 of 103 with available data (63%) were admitted to an intensive care unit. A total of 47 persons (34%) died in the hospital after a median duration of illness of 21 days, 88 were discharged from the hospital, and 2 remain hospitalized in critical condition; 2 patients were not admitted to a hospital. In four family clusters, human-to-human transmission of H7N9 virus could not be ruled out. Excluding secondary cases in clusters, 2675 close contacts of case patients completed the monitoring period; respiratory symptoms developed in 28 of them (1%); all tested negative for H7N9 virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Most persons with confirmed H7N9 virus infection had severe lower respiratory tract illness, were epidemiologically unrelated, and had a history of recent exposure to poultry. However, limited, nonsustained human-to-human H7N9 virus transmission could not be ruled out in four families.

Epidemiologic report and serologic findings for household contacts of three cases of influenza A (H7N9) virus infection

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

We conducted epidemiologic investigations and serologic assays on household contacts that were extensively exposed to three influenza A (H7N9) virus infected case-patients before infection-control practices were implemented.

STUDY DESIGN

Data on the early clinical course of each patient and the exposure history for each patient's household contacts were obtained by interviewing household members and by reviewing medical records. Viral RNA in patient samples was tested using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay. Antibodies against H7N9 virus in serum samples were tested using hemagglutination inhibition and pseudovirus based neutralization assays.

RESULTS

All household contacts were extensively exposed to the case-patients without the use of measures to protect against infection. Viral RNA was detected in the specimens from case-patients for approximately 7-11 days after confirmation of infection. However, the results of the analyses of serum specimens taken from the household contacts 15-26 days post exposure revealed no evidence of transmission of H7N9 virus from the case-patients to the contacts.

CONCLUSION

Despite ample unprotected exposures to case-patients during the virus shedding period, household members in this report were not infected by the H7N9 virus.

Preliminary success in the characterization and management of a sudden breakout of a novel H7N9 influenza A virus

Influenza has always been one of the major threats to human health. The Spanish influenza in 1918, the pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in 2009, and the avian influenza A/H5N1 have brought about great disasters or losses to mankind. More recently, a novel avian influenza A/H7N9 broke out in China and until December 2, 2013, it had caused 139 cases of infection, including 45 deaths. Its risk and pandemic potential attract worldwide attention. In this article, we summarize epidemiology, virology characteristics, clinical symptoms, diagnosis methods, clinical treatment and preventive measures about the avian influenza A/H7N9 virus infection to provide a reference for a possible next wave of flu outbreak.

Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus screening in patients with fever and flu-like symptoms in a tertiary hospital in an area with confirmed cases

Novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was isolated in fatal patients in Yangtze River Delta of China in March 2013. We aimed to screen the virus in febrile patients in a tertiary hospital in an area with confirmed cases. Throat-swab specimens collected from consecutive patients with fever (≥38°C) and flu-like symptoms from April 15 to April 25, 2013 were subjected to detect novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus with real-time PCR. The clinical outcomes in the patients and close contacts were followed up. Of total 200 patients screened, one (0.5%) was positive for avian influenza A(H7N9) virus and 199 others were negative. The infected patient experienced respiratory failure and had diffuse infiltrates in the right lower lobe in chest CT images. He received symptomatic and antibacterial treatments as well as oseltamivir. His condition was substantially improved within three days after admission; avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was not detected after 5 days' antiviral therapy. The hemagglutinin inhibition test showed that the serum titers against avian influenza A(H7N9) virus increased from <1∶20 at the early phase to 1∶80 at the convalescent phase. Follow-up of 23 close contacts showed that none of them developed fever and other symptoms within two weeks. Our findings suggest that although the infection rate of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in patients with fever and flu-like symptoms is rare, the screening is valuable to rapidly define the infection, which will be critical to improve the clinical outcomes.

External quality assessment for Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Virus detection using armored RNA

An external quality assessment (EQA) program for the molecular detection of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was implemented by the National Center for Clinical Laboratories (NCCL) of China in June 2013. Virus-like particles (VLPs) that contained full-length RNA sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), matrix protein (MP), and nucleoprotein (NP) genes from the H7N9 virus (armored RNAs) were constructed. The EQA panel, comprising 6 samples with different concentrations of armored RNAs positive for H7N9 viruses and four H7N9-negative samples (including one sample positive for only the MP gene of the H7N9 virus), was distributed to 79 laboratories in China that carry out the molecular detection of H7N9 viruses. The overall performances of the data sets were classified according to the results for the H7 and N9 genes. Consequently, we received 80 data sets (one participating group provided two sets of results) which were generated using commercial (n = 60) or in-house (n = 17) reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (qRT-PCR) kits and a commercial assay that employed isothermal amplification method (n = 3). The results revealed that the majority (82.5%) of the data sets correctly identified the H7N9 virus, while 17.5% of the data sets needed improvements in their diagnostic capabilities. These "improvable" data sets were derived mostly from false-negative results for the N9 gene at relatively low concentrations. The false-negative rate was 5.6%, and the false-positive rate was 0.6%. In addition, we observed varied diagnostic capabilities between the different commercially available kits and the in-house-developed assays, with the assay manufactured by BioPerfectus Technologies (Jiangsu, China) performing better than the others. Overall, the majority of laboratories have reliable diagnostic capacities for the detection of H7N9 virus.

Surveillance for avian influenza A(H7N9), Beijing, China, 2013

During surveillance for pneumonia of unknown etiology and sentinel hospital-based surveillance in Beijing, China, we detected avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in 4 persons who had pneumonia, influenza-like illness, or asymptomatic infections. Samples from poultry workers, associated poultry environments, and wild birds suggest that this virus might not be present in Beijing.

Influenza treatment and prophylaxis with neuraminidase inhibitors: a review

Influenza virus is a pathogen that causes morbidity and mortality worldwide. Whereas vaccination is important for prevention of disease, given its limitations, antiviral therapy is at the forefront of treatment and also plays a role in prevention. Currently, two classes of antiviral medications, the adamantanes and the neuraminidase inhibitors, are approved for treatment. Given the resistance patterns of circulating influenza, adamantanes are not recommended. Within the US, two neuraminidase inhibitors are currently approved for both treatment and prevention, while worldwide there are four available. In this review, we will briefly discuss the epidemiology and pathology of influenza and then discuss neuraminidase inhibitors: their mechanism of action, resistance, development, and future applications.

Epidemiological surveillance of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) from poultry in Guangxi Province, Southern China

Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) usually causes mild disease or asymptomatic infection in poultry. However, some LPAIV strains can be transmitted to humans and cause severe infection. Genetic rearrangement and recombination of even low pathogenic influenza may generate a novel virus with increased virulence, posing a substantial risk to public health. Southern China is regarded as the world “influenza epicenter”, due to a rash of outbreaks of influenza in recent years. In this study, we conducted an epidemiological survey of LPAIV at different live bird markets (LBMs) in Guangxi province, Southern China. From January 2009 to December 2011, we collected 3,121 cotton swab samples of larynx, trachea and cloaca from the poultry at LBMs in Guangxi. Virus isolation, hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay, and RT-PCR were used to detect and subtype LPAIV in the collected samples. Of the 3,121 samples, 336 samples (10.8%) were LPAIV positive, including 54 (1.7%) in chicken and 282 (9.1%) in duck. The identified LPAIV were H3N1, H3N2, H6N1, H6N2, H6N5, H6N6, H6N8, and H9N2, which are combinations of seven HA subtypes (H1, H3, H4, H6, H9, H10 and H11) and five NA subtypes (N1, N2, N5, N6 and N8). The H3 and H9 subtypes are predominant in the identified LPAIVs. Among the 336 cases, 29 types of mixed infection of different HA subtypes were identified in 87 of the cases (25.9%). The mixed infections may provide opportunities for genetic recombination. Our results suggest that the LPAIV epidemiology in poultry in the Guangxi province in southern China is complicated and highlights the need for further epidemiological and genetic studies of LPAIV in this area.

Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China

BACKGROUND

On 31 March 2013, the first human infections with the novel influenza A/H7N9 virus were reported in Eastern China. The outbreak expanded rapidly in geographic scope and size, with a total of 132 laboratory-confirmed cases reported by 3 June 2013, in 10 Chinese provinces and Taiwan. The incidence of A/H7N9 cases has stalled in recent weeks, presumably as a consequence of live bird market closures in the most heavily affected areas. Here we compare the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other emerging pathogens and evaluate the impact of intervention measures in an effort to guide pandemic preparedness.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian approach combined with a SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) transmission model fitted to daily case data to assess the reproduction number (R) of A/H7N9 by province and to evaluate the impact of live bird market closures in April and May 2013. Simulation studies helped quantify the performance of our approach in the context of an emerging pathogen, where human-to-human transmission is limited and most cases arise from spillover events. We also used alternative approaches to estimate R based on individual-level information on prior exposure and compared the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other recent zoonoses.

RESULTS

Estimates of R for the A/H7N9 outbreak were below the epidemic threshold required for sustained human-to-human transmission and remained near 0.1 throughout the study period, with broad 95% credible intervals by the Bayesian method (0.01 to 0.49). The Bayesian estimation approach was dominated by the prior distribution, however, due to relatively little information contained in the case data. We observe a statistically significant deceleration in growth rate after 6 April 2013, which is consistent with a reduction in A/H7N9 transmission associated with the preemptive closure of live bird markets. Although confidence intervals are broad, the estimated transmission potential of A/H7N9 appears lower than that of recent zoonotic threats, including avian influenza A/H5N1, swine influenza H3N2sw and Nipah virus.

CONCLUSION

Although uncertainty remains high in R estimates for H7N9 due to limited epidemiological information, all available evidence points to a low transmission potential. Continued monitoring of the transmission potential of A/H7N9 is critical in the coming months as intervention measures may be relaxed and seasonal factors could promote disease transmission in colder months.

The emergence of influenza A H7N9 in human beings 16 years after influenza A H5N1: a tale of two cities

Infection with either influenza A H5N1 virus in 1997 or avian influenza A H7N9 virus in 2013 caused severe pneumonia that did not respond to typical or atypical antimicrobial treatment, and resulted in high mortality. Both viruses are reassortants with internal genes derived from avian influenza A H9N2 viruses that circulate in Asian poultry. Both viruses have genetic markers of mammalian adaptation in their haemagglutinin and polymerase PB2 subunits, which enhanced binding to human-type receptors and improved replication in mammals, respectively. Hong Kong (affected by H5N1 in 1997) and Shanghai (affected by H7N9 in 2013) are two rapidly flourishing cosmopolitan megacities that were increasing in human population and poultry consumption before the outbreaks. Both cities are located along the avian migratory route at the Pearl River delta and Yangtze River delta. Whether the widespread use of the H5N1 vaccine in east Asia-with suboptimum biosecurity measures in live poultry markets and farms-predisposed to the emergence of H7N9 or other virus subtypes needs further investigation. Why H7N9 seems to be more readily transmitted from poultry to people than H5N1 is still unclear.

H7N9 influenza viruses interact preferentially with α2,3-linked sialic acids and bind weakly to α2,6-linked sialic acids

The recent human outbreak of H7N9 avian influenza A virus has caused worldwide concerns. Receptor binding specificity is critical for viral pathogenicity, and still not thoroughly studied for this emerging virus. Here, we evaluated the receptor specificity of the haemagglutinin (HA) of two human H7N9 isolates (A/Shanghai/1/13 and A/Anhui/1/13) through a solid-phase binding assay and a flow cytometry-based assay. In addition, we compared it with those from several HAs from human and avian influenza viruses. We observed that the HAs from the novel H7 isolates strongly interacted with α2,3-linked sialic acids. Importantly, they also showed low levels of binding to α2,6-linked sialic acids, but significantly higher than other avian H7s.

Resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors conferred by an R292K mutation in a human influenza virus H7N9 isolate can be masked by a mixed R/K viral population

We characterized the A/Shanghai/1/2013 virus isolated from the first confirmed human case of A/H7N9 disease in China. The A/Shanghai/1/2013 isolate contained a mixed population of R (65%; 15/23 clones) and K (35%; 8/23 clones) at neuraminidase (NA) residue 292, as determined by clonal sequencing. A/Shanghai/1/2013 with mixed R/K at residue 292 exhibited a phenotype that is sensitive to zanamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate by the enzyme-based NA inhibition assay. The plaque-purified A/Shanghai/1/2013 with dominant K292 (94%; 15/16 clones) showed sensitivity to zanamivir that had decreased by >30-fold and to oseltamivir carboxylate that had decreased by >100-fold compared to its plaque-purified wild-type counterpart possessing dominant R292 (93%, 14/15 clones). In Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells, the plaque-purified A/Shanghai/1/2013-NAK292 virus exhibited no reduction in viral titer under conditions of increasing concentrations of oseltamivir carboxylate (range, 0 to 1,000 µM) whereas the replication of the plaque-purified A/Shanghai/1/2013-NAR292 and the A/Shanghai/2/2013 viruses was completely inhibited at 250 µM and 31.25 µM of oseltamivir carboxylate, respectively. Although the plaque-purified A/Shanghai/1/2013-NAK292 virus exhibited lower NA enzyme activity and a higher Km for 2'-(4-methylumbelliferryl)-α-d-N-acetylneuraminic acid than the wild-type A/Shanghai/1/2013-NAR292 virus, the A/Shanghai/1/2013-NAK292 virus formed large plaques and replicated efficiently in vitro. Our results confirmed that the NA R292K mutation confers resistance to oseltamivir, peramivir, and zanamivir in the novel human H7N9 viruses. Importantly, detection of the resistance phenotype may be masked in the clinical samples containing a mixed population of R/K at NA residue 292 in the enzyme-based NA inhibition assay.

IMPORTANCE

The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir are currently the front-line therapeutic options against the novel H7N9 influenza viruses, which possess an S31N mutation that confers resistance to the M2 ion channel blockers. It is therefore important to evaluate the sensitivity of the clinical isolates to NA inhibitors and to monitor for the emergence of resistant variants. We characterized the A/Shanghai/1/2013 (H7N9) isolate which contained a mixed population of R/K at NA residue 292. While the clinical isolate exhibited a phenotype of sensitivity to NA inhibitors using the enzyme-based NA inhibition assay, the plaque-purified A/Shanghai/1/2013 virus with dominant K292 was resistant to zanamivir, peramivir, and oseltamivir. Resistance to NA inhibitors conferred by the R292K mutation in a human influenza virus H7N9 isolate can be masked by a mixed R/K viral population, and this should be taken into consideration while monitoring antiviral resistance in patients with H7N9 infection.

Comparative epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China: a population-based study of laboratory-confirmed cases

BACKGROUND

The novel influenza A H7N9 virus emerged recently in mainland China, whereas the influenza A H5N1 virus has infected people in China since 2003. Both infections are thought to be mainly zoonotic. We aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics of the complete series of laboratory-confirmed cases of both viruses in mainland China so far.

METHODS

An integrated database was constructed with information about demographic, epidemiological, and clinical variables of laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 (130 patients) and H5N1 (43 patients) that were reported to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention until May 24, 2013. We described disease occurrence by age, sex, and geography, and estimated key epidemiological variables. We used survival analysis techniques to estimate the following distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, onset to laboratory confirmation, admission to death, and admission to discharge.

FINDINGS

The median age of the 130 individuals with confirmed infection with H7N9 was 62 years and of the 43 with H5N1 was 26 years. In urban areas, 74% of cases of both viruses were in men, whereas in rural areas the proportions of the viruses in men were 62% for H7N9 and 33% for H5N1. 75% of patients infected with H7N9 and 71% of those with H5N1 reported recent exposure to poultry. The mean incubation period of H7N9 was 3·1 days and of H5N1 was 3·3 days. On average, 21 contacts were traced for each case of H7N9 in urban areas and 18 in rural areas, compared with 90 and 63 for H5N1. The fatality risk on admission to hospital was 36% (95% CI 26-45) for H7N9 and 70% (56-83%) for H5N1.

INTERPRETATION

The sex ratios in urban compared with rural cases are consistent with exposure to poultry driving the risk of infection--a higher risk in men was only recorded in urban areas but not in rural areas, and the increased risk for men was of a similar magnitude for H7N9 and H5N1. However, the difference in susceptibility to serious illness with the two different viruses remains unexplained, since most cases of H7N9 were in older adults whereas most cases of H5N1 were in younger people. A limitation of our study is that we compared laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 and H5N1 infection, and some infections might not have been ascertained.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease and University Grants Committee, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; and the US National Institutes of Health.

Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an assessment of clinical severity

BACKGROUND

Characterisation of the severity profile of human infections with influenza viruses of animal origin is a part of pandemic risk assessment, and an important part of the assessment of disease epidemiology. Our objective was to assess the clinical severity of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus, which emerged in China in early 2013.

METHODS

We obtained information about laboratory-confirmed cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported as of May 28, 2013, from an integrated database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the risk of fatality, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients who required hospital admission for medical reasons. We also used information about laboratory-confirmed cases detected through sentinel influenza-like illness surveillance to estimate the symptomatic case fatality risk.

FINDINGS

Of 123 patients with laboratory-confirmed avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection who were admitted to hospital, 37 (30%) had died and 69 (56%) had recovered by May 28, 2013. After we accounted for incomplete data for 17 patients who were still in hospital, we estimated the fatality risk for all ages to be 36% (95% CI 26-45) on admission to hospital. Risks of mechanical ventilation or fatality (69%, 95% CI 60-77) and of admission to an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or fatality (83%, 76-90) were high. With assumptions about coverage of the sentinel surveillance network and health-care-seeking behaviour for patients with influenza-like illness associated with influenza A H7N9 virus infection, and pro-rata extrapolation, we estimated that the symptomatic case fatality risk could be between 160 (63-460) and 2800 (1000-9400) per 100,000 symptomatic cases.

INTERPRETATION

Human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus seem to be less serious than has been previously reported. Many mild cases might already have occurred. Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts are needed to minimise the risk of human infection.

FUNDING

Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; and the US National Institutes of Health.

Global alert to avian influenza virus infection: from H5N1 to H7N9

Outbreak of a novel influenza virus is usually triggered by mutational change due to the process known as 'antigenic shift' or re-assortment process that allows animal-to-human or avian-to-human transmission. Birds are a natural reservoir for the influenza virus, and subtypes H5, H7, and H9 have all caused outbreaks of avian influenza in human populations. An especially notorious strain is the HPAI influenza virus H5N1, which has a mortality rate of approximately 60% and which has resulted in numerous hospitalizations, deaths, and significant economic loss. In March 2013, in Eastern China, there was an outbreak of the novel H7N9 influenza virus, which although less pathogenic in avian species, resulted in 131 confirmed cases and 36 deaths in humans over a two-month span. The rapid outbreak of this virus caused global concern but resulted in international cooperation to control the outbreak. Furthermore, cooperation led to valuable research-sharing including genome sequencing of the virus, the development of rapid and specific diagnosis, specimen sharing for future studies, and vaccine development. Although a H7N9 pandemic in the human population is possible due to its rapid transmissibility and extensive surveillance, the closure of the live-bird market will help mitigate the possibility of another H7N9 outbreak. In addition, further research into the source of the outbreak, pathogenicity of the virus, and the development of specific and sensitive detection assays will be essential for controlling and preparing for future H7N9 outbreaks.

Detection of mild to moderate influenza A/H7N9 infection by China's national sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness: case series

OBJECTIVE

To characterise the complete case series of influenza A/H7N9 infections as of 27 May 2013, detected by China's national sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness.

DESIGN

Case series.

SETTING

Outpatient clinics and emergency departments of 554 sentinel hospitals across 31 provinces in mainland China.

CASES

Infected individuals were identified through cross-referencing people who had laboratory confirmed A/H7N9 infection with people detected by the sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness, where patients meeting the World Health Organization's definition of influenza-like illness undergo weekly surveillance, and 10-15 nasopharyngeal swabs are collected each week from a subset of patients with influenza-like illness in each hospital for virological testing. We extracted relevant epidemiological data from public health investigations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the local, provincial, and national level; and clinical and laboratory data from chart review.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory profiles of the case series.

RESULTS

Of 130 people with laboratory confirmed A/H7N9 infection as of 27 May 2013, five (4%) were detected through the sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness. Mean age was 13 years (range 2-26), and none had any underlying medical conditions. Exposure history, geographical location, and timing of symptom onset of these five patients were otherwise similar to the general cohort of laboratory confirmed cases so far. Only two of the five patients needed hospitalisation, and all five had mild or moderate disease with an uneventful course of recovery.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the existence of a "clinical iceberg" phenomenon in influenza A/H7N9 infections, and reinforce the need for vigilance to the diverse presentation that can be associated with A/H7N9 infection. At the public health level, indirect evidence suggests a substantial proportion of mild disease in A/H7N9 infections.