Scaling approaches and macroecology provide a foundation for assessing ecological resilience in the Anthropocene

In the Anthropocene, intensifying ecological disturbances pose significant challenges to our predictive capabilities for ecosystem responses. Macroecology-which focuses on emergent statistical patterns in ecological systems-unveils consistent regularities in the organization of biodiversity and ecosystems. These regularities appear in terms of abundance, body size, geographical range, species interaction networks, or the flux of matter and energy. This paper argues for moving beyond qualitative resilience metaphors, such as the 'ball and cup', towards a more quantitative macroecological framework. We suggest a conceptual and theoretical basis for ecological resilience that integrates macroecology with a stochastic diffusion approximation constrained by principles of biological symmetry. This approach provides an alternative novel framework for studying ecological resilience in the Anthropocene. We demonstrate how our framework can effectively quantify the impacts of major disturbances and their extensive ecological ramifications. We further show how biological scaling insights can help quantify the consequences of major disturbances, emphasizing their cascading ecological impacts. The nature of these impacts prompts a re-evaluation of our understanding of resilience. Emphasis on regularities of ecological assemblages can help illuminate resilience dynamics and offer a novel basis to predict and manage the impacts of disturbance in the Anthropocene more efficiently. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Recolonization of secondary forests by a locally extinct Caribbean anole through the lens of range expansion theory

Disturbance and recovery dynamics are characteristic features of many ecosystems. Disturbance dynamics are widely studied in ecology and conservation biology. Still, we know less about the ecological processes that drive ecosystem recovery. The ecological processes that mediate ecosystem recovery stand at the intersection of many theoretical frameworks. Range expansion theory is one of these complementary frameworks that can provide unique insights into the population-level processes that mediate ecosystem recovery, particularly fauna recolonization. Although the biodiversity patterns that follow the fauna recolonization of recovering forests have been well described in the literature, the ecological processes at the population level that drive these patterns remain conspicuously unknown. In this study, we tested three fundamental predictions of range expansion theory during the recolonization of recovering forests in Puerto Rico by a shade specialist anole, Anolis gundlachi. Range expansion theory predicts that individuals at the early stages of recolonization (i.e., younger forests) would have a high prevalence of dispersive traits, experience less density dependence, and suffer less parasitism. To test these predictions, we conducted a chronosequence study applying space-for-time substitution where we compared phenotypic traits (i.e., body size, body condition, and relative limb size), population density, population growth rates, and Plasmodium parasitism rates among lizard populations living in young (<30 years), mid (~40-70 years), and old-growth forests (>75 years). Lizard populations in younger forests had lower densities, higher population growth rates, and lower rates of Plasmodium parasitism compared with old-growth forests. Still, while we found that individuals had larger body sizes, and longer forelimbs in young forests in one site, this result was not consistent among sites. This suggests a potential trade-off between the traits that provide a dispersal advantage during the initial stages of recolonization and those that are advantageous to establish in novel environmental conditions. Overall, our study emphasizes the suitability of range expansion theory to describe fauna recolonization but also highlights that the ecological processes that drive recolonization are time-dependent, complex, and nuanced.

Exploring the complex pre-adaptations of invasive plants to anthropogenic disturbance: a call for integration of archaeobotanical approaches

Pre-adaptation to anthropogenic disturbance is broadly considered key for plant invasion success. Nevertheless, empirical evidence remains scarce and fragmentary, given the multifaceted nature of anthropogenic disturbance itself and the complexity of other evolutionary forces shaping the (epi)-genomes of recent native and invasive plant populations. Here, we review and critically revisit the existing theory and empirical evidence in the field of evolutionary ecology and highlight novel integrative research avenues that work at the interface with archaeology to solve open questions. The approaches suggested so far focus on contemporary plant populations, although their genomes have rapidly changed since their initial introduction in response to numerous selective and stochastic forces. We elaborate that a role of pre-adaptation to anthropogenic disturbance in plant invasion success should thus additionally be validated based on the analyses of archaeobotanical remains. Such materials, in the light of detailed knowledge on past human societies could highlight fine-scale differences in the type and timing of past disturbances. We propose a combination of archaeobotanical, ancient DNA and morphometric analyses of plant macro- and microremains to assess past community composition, and species' functional traits to unravel the timing of adaptation processes, their drivers and their long-term consequences for invasive species. Although such methodologies have proven to be feasible for numerous crop plants, they have not been yet applied to wild invasive species, which opens a wide array of insights into their evolution.

Plant life history strategies vary in subtropical forests with different disturbance histories: an assessment of biodiversity, biomass, and functional traits

Disturbance alters environmental conditions in forests. Plants growing in forests with different disturbance histories in diverse environments may adopt varying life history strategies, but few studies focus on this effect. This study comprehensively investigated plant biodiversity, biomass, and functional traits in subtropical forests with two different disturbance histories in east China to explore differences in life history strategies. Biodiversity was slightly higher in disturbed compared to conserved forests. Significantly higher biomass was measured in conserved relative to disturbed evergreen broadleaved forests (P < 0.05). In conserved forests, leaf tissue density (LTD) was significantly higher and leaf thickness (LT), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), twig tissue density (TTD), twig dry matter content (TDMC), bark tissue density (BTD) and dry matter content (BDMC), and stem tissue density (STD) and dry matter content (SDMC) were significantly lower than in disturbed forests (P < 0.05). In terms of associated plant biodiversity, biomass, and functional traits, conserved forests adopted a resource acquisition strategy, reducing biodiversity and developing multiple functional traits such as high leaf area and specific leaf area and low LT, LDMC, TTD, TDMC, BTD, BDMC, STD, and SDMC to support a high biomass accumulation rate. Disturbed forests adopted a resource conservation strategy, enhancing biodiversity and developing converse trait combinations to lower the rate of biomass accumulation. A comprehensive investigation of plant biodiversity, biomass, and functional traits and subsequent assessment of plant life history strategies in conserved and disturbed forests will aid investigations of regional biodiversity and carbon reserves, contribute data to the TRY and Chinese plant trait databases, and improve ecological management and restoration efforts in east China.

Accounting for herbaceous communities in process-based models will advance our understanding of "grassy" ecosystems

Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

Density-dependent changes in elk resource selection over successional time scales following forest disturbance

There is an increasing need to understand how animals respond to modifications of their habitat following landscape-scale disturbances such as wildfire or timber harvest. Such disturbances can promote increased use by herbivores due to changes in plant community structure that improve forage conditions, but can also cause avoidance if other habitat functions provided by cover are substantially reduced or eliminated. Quantifying the total effects of these disturbances, however, is challenging because they may not fully be apparent unless observed at successional timescales. Further, the effects of disturbances that improve habitat quality may be density dependent, such that the benefits are (1) less valuable to high-density populations because the per-capita benefits are reduced when shared among more users or, alternatively, (2) more valuable to animals living in high densities because resources may be more depleted from the greater intraspecific competition. We used 30 years of telemetry data on elk occurring at two distinct population densities to quantify changes in space use at diel, monthly, and successional timescales following timber harvest. Elk selected logged areas at night only, with selection strongest during midsummer, and peak selection occurring 14 years post harvest, but persisting for 26-33 years. This pattern of increased selection at night following a reduction in overhead canopy cover is consistent with elk exploiting improved nutritional conditions for foraging. The magnitude of selection for logged areas was 73% higher for elk at low population density, consistent with predictions from the ideal free distribution. Yet elk avoided these same areas during daytime for up to 28 years post logging and instead selected untreated forest, suggesting a role for cover to meet other life history requirements. Our results demonstrate that while landscape-scale disturbances can lead to increased selection by large herbivores and suggest that the improvement in foraging conditions can persist over short-term successional timescales, the magnitude of the benefits may not be equal across population densities. Further, the enduring avoidance of logging treatments during the daytime indicates a need for structurally intact forests and suggests that a mosaic of forest patches of varying successional stages and structural completeness is likely to be the most beneficial to large herbivores.

Landscape-scale mapping of soil fungal distribution: proposing a new NGS-based approach

Soil fungi play an indispensable role in the functioning of terrestrial habitats. Most landscape-scale studies of soil fungal diversity try to identify the fungal taxa present at a study site and define the relationships between their abundance and environmental factors. The specific spatial distribution of these fungi over the site, however, is not addressed. Our study's main objective is to propose a novel approach to landscape-scale mapping of soil fungi distribution using next generation sequencing and geographic information system applications. Furthermore, to test the proposed approach and discuss its performance, we aimed to conduct a case study mapping the spatial distribution of soil fungi on the Wielka Żuława island. The case study was performed on the Wielka Żuława island in northern Poland, where soil samples were collected every 100 m in an even grid. The fungal taxa and their relative abundance in each sample were assessed using the Illumina platform. Using the data obtained for the sampled points, maps of soil fungi spatial distribution were generated using three common interpolators: inverted distance weighted (IDW), B-spline, and ordinary Kriging. The proposed approach succeeded in creating maps of fungal distribution on Wielka Żuława. The most abundant groups of soil fungi were Penicillium on the genus level, Aspergillaceae on the family level, and ectomycorrhizal fungi on the trophic group level. Ordinary Kriging proved to be the most accurate at predicting relative abundance values for the groups of fungi significantly spatially autocorrelated at the sampled scale. For the groups of fungi not displaying spatial autocorrelation at the sampled scale, IDW provided the most accurate predictions of their relative abundance. Although less accurate at predicting exact relative abundance values, B-spline performed best in delineating the spatial patterns of soil fungi distribution. The proposed approach to landscape-scale mapping of soil fungi distribution could provide new insights into the ecology of soil fungi and terrestrial ecosystems in general. Producing maps of predicted fungal distribution in landscape-scale soil fungi diversity studies would also facilitate the reusability and replicability of the results. Outside the area of research, mapping the distribution of soil fungi could prove helpful in areas such as agriculture and forestry, nature conservation, and urban planning.

Asynchrony in coral community structure contributes to reef-scale community stability

Many aspects of global ecosystem degradation are well known, but the ecological implications of variation in these effects over scales of kilometers and years have not been widely considered. On tropical coral reefs, kilometer-scale variation in environmental conditions promotes a spatial mosaic of coral communities in which spatial insurance effects could enhance community stability. To evaluate whether these effects are important on coral reefs, we explored variation over 2006-2019 in coral community structure and environmental conditions in Moorea, French Polynesia. We studied coral community structure at a single site with fringing, back reef, and fore reef habitats, and used this system to explore associations among community asynchrony, asynchrony of environmental conditions, and community stability. Coral community structure varied asynchronously among habitats, and variation among habitats in the daily range in seawater temperature suggested it could be a factor contributing to the variation in coral community structure. Wave forced seawater flow connected the habitats and facilitated larval exchange among them, but this effect differed in strength among years, and accentuated periodic connectivity among habitats at 1-7 year intervals. At this site, connected habitats harboring taxonomically similar coral assemblages and exhibiting asynchronous population dynamics can provide insurance against extirpation, and may promote community stability. If these effects apply at larger spatial scale, then among-habitat community asynchrony is likely to play an important role in determining reef-wide coral community resilience.

Parallel recolonizations generate distinct genomic sectors in kelp following high-magnitude earthquake disturbance

Large-scale disturbance events have the potential to drastically reshape biodiversity patterns. Notably, newly vacant habitat space cleared by disturbance can be colonized by multiple lineages, which can lead to the evolution of distinct spatial "sectors" of genetic diversity within a species. We test for disturbance-driven sectoring of genetic diversity in intertidal southern bull kelp, Durvillaea antarctica (Chamisso) Hariot, following the high-magnitude 1855 Wairarapa earthquake in New Zealand. Specifically, we use genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) to analyse fine-scale population structure across the uplift zone and apply machine learning to assess the fit of alternative recolonizaton models. Our analysis reveals that specimens from the uplift zone carry distinctive genomic signatures potentially linked to post-earthquake recolonization processes. Specifically, our analysis identifies two parapatric spatial-genomic sectors of D. antarctica at Turakirae Head, which experienced the most dramatic uplift. Based on phylogeographical modelling, we infer that bull kelp in the Wellington region was probably a source for recolonization of the heavily uplifted Turakirae Head coastline, via two parallel, eastward recolonization events. By identifying multiple parapatric genotypic sectors within a recently recolonized coastal region, the current study provides support for the hypothesis that competing lineage expansions can generate striking spatial structuring of genetic diversity, even in highly dispersive taxa.

Biotic responses to climate extremes in terrestrial ecosystems

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the incidence of climate extremes. Consequences of climate extremes on biodiversity can be highly detrimental, yet few studies also suggest beneficial effects of climate extremes on certain organisms. To obtain a general understanding of ecological responses to climate extremes, we present a review of how 16 major taxonomic/functional groups (including microorganisms, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates) respond during extreme drought, precipitation, and temperature. Most taxonomic/functional groups respond negatively to extreme events, whereas groups such as mosses, legumes, trees, and vertebrate predators respond most negatively to climate extremes. We further highlight that ecological recovery after climate extremes is challenging to predict purely based on ecological responses during or immediately after climate extremes. By accounting for the characteristics of the recovering species, resource availability, and species interactions with neighboring competitors or facilitators, mutualists, and enemies, we outline a conceptual framework to better predict ecological recovery in terrestrial ecosystems.

A Review of Disturbances to the Ecosystems of the Mexican Caribbean, Their Causes and Consequences

In a relatively short timescale (less than 50 years), urbanization has caused many anthropogenic disturbances that have affected ecosystem health and, directly or indirectly, quality of life for the local human population. Global disturbances, such as climate change, can also have a substantial, overarching impact on ecosystems. In this scenario, natural disturbances, previously considered an integral part of ecosystem dynamics, can now cause irreversible change to the state of ecosystems, and at the same time, negatively impact social and economic systems. The objective of this study was to identify ecosystem disturbances at a site of interest to recommend strategies to improve coastal zone management. We chose the Mexican Caribbean as a case study, because its biological and cultural complexity render it an interesting location from a coastal management point of view. The PRISMA framework was used to conduct a systematic literature review to identify the ecosystem disturbances that affect this area, as well as the main causes and consequences of these disturbances. Additionally, we discuss how disturbances and their impacts, as screened through PRISMA, can be incorporated into a coastal zone management framework. Results need to consider the limitations associated with using this technique e.g., the degree of impact from a current disturbance may vary from that reported in an earlier publication. Despite its limitations, we believe that this methodology proves useful for identifying key ecosystem disturbances and their consequences, providing a useful tool for identifying appropriate actions to inform coastal zone management plans.

Temporal scope influences ecosystem driver-response relationships: A case study of Lake Erie with implications for ecosystem-based management

Understanding environmental driver-response relationships is critical to the implementation of effective ecosystem-based management. Ecosystems are often influenced by multiple drivers that operate on different timescales and may be nonstationary. In turn, contrasting views of ecosystem state and structure could arise depending on the temporal perspective of analysis. Further, assessment of multiple ecosystem components (e.g., biological indicators) may serve to identify different key drivers and connections. To explore how the timescale of analysis and data richness can influence the identification of driver-response relationships within a large, dynamic ecosystem, this study analyzed long-term (1969-2018) data from Lake Erie (USA-Canada). Data were compiled on multiple biological, physical, chemical, and socioeconomic components of the ecosystem to quantify trends and identify potential key drivers during multiple time intervals (20 to 50 years duration), using zooplankton, bird, and fish community metrics as indicators of ecosystem change. Concurrent temporal shifts of many variables occurred during the 1980s, but asynchronous dynamics were evident among indicator taxa. The strengths and rank orders of predictive drivers shifted among intervals and were sometimes taxon-specific. Drivers related to nutrient loading and lake trophic status were consistently strong predictors of temporal patterns for all indicators; however, within the longer intervals, measures of agricultural land use were the strongest predictors, whereas within shorter intervals, the stronger predictors were measures of tributary or in-lake nutrient concentrations. Physical drivers also tended to increase in predictive ability within shorter intervals. The results highlight how the time interval examined can filter influences of lower-frequency, slower drivers and higher-frequency, faster drivers. Understanding ecosystem change in support of ecosystem-based management requires consideration of both the temporal perspective of analysis and the chosen indicators, as both can influence which drivers are identified as most predictive of ecosystem trends at that timescale.

Fine Resolution Imagery and LIDAR-Derived Canopy Heights Accurately Classify Land Cover with a Focus on Shrub/Sapling Cover in a Mountainous Landscape

Publicly available land cover maps do not accurately represent shrubs and saplings, an uncommon but ecologically relevant cover type represented by woody vegetation <4 m tall. This omission likely occurs because (1) the resolution is too coarse, (2) poor training data are available, and/or (3) shrub/saplings are difficult to discriminate from spectrally similar classes. We present a framework for classifying land cover, including shrub/saplings, by combining open-source fine-resolution (1 m) spectral and structural data across a large (>6000 km2) mountainous region. We hypothesized that the combination of spectral (imagery) and structural (LIDAR) data would allow for discrimination of shrub/sapling cover from other cover types. Specifically, we created training data using segmented four-band imagery from the National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP). In addition to spectral information from imagery, we used topographic information (elevation, slope, and aspect) and a LIDAR-derived canopy height model to classify land cover within a pixel-based random forests framework. To assess model accuracy, we used image interpretation and an independent sample of validation points. Due to the fine resolution of predictor rasters across such a large geographic region, we classified five subregions (counties) separately. We also compared the landscape metrics calculated for our custom classification at fine (1 m) and coarse resolution (resampled to 30 m) to metrics calculated with National Land Cover Data (NLCD). We achieved an overall accuracy of 89% and >80% accuracy for each land cover class. The LIDAR-derived canopy height model was consistently ranked as the most important predictor of vegetative land cover classes. Compared with our custom classification, NLCD underrepresented pasture/grassland by up to 10% and overrepresented forest up to 30%. There was no correlation between percent shrub/sapling cover in our custom classification and NLCD, suggesting that NLCD is not reliable for applications concerned with this ecologically relevant cover type.

Does long-term fire suppression impact leaf litter breakdown and aquatic invertebrate colonization in pine flatwoods wetlands?

Ephemeral wetlands are commonly embedded within pine uplands of the southeastern United States. These wetlands support diverse communities but have often been degraded by a lack of growing-season fires that historically maintained the vegetation structure. In the absence of fire, wetlands develop a dense mid-story of woody vegetation that increases canopy cover and decreases the amount of herbaceous vegetation. To understand how reduced fire frequency impacts wetland processes, we measured leaf litter breakdown rates and invertebrate communities using three common plant species (Longleaf Pine (Pinus palustris), Pineland Threeawn Grass (Aristida stricta), and Black Gum (Nyssa sylvatica)) that occur in pine flatwoods wetlands located on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. We also tested whether or not the overall habitat type within a wetland (fire maintained or fire suppressed) affected these processes. We placed leaf packs containing 15.0 g of dried leaf litter from each species in both fire-maintained and fire-suppressed sections of three wetlands, removing them after 103–104 days submerged in the wetland. The amount of leaf litter remaining at the end of the study varied across species (N. sylvatica = 7.97 ± 0.17 g, A. stricta = 11.84 ± 0.06 g, and P. palustris = 11.37 ± 0.07 g (mean ± SE)) and was greater in fire-maintained habitat (leaf type: F_2,45 = 437.2, P < 0.001; habitat type: F_1,45 = 4.6, P = 0.037). We identified an average of 260 ± 33.5 (SE) invertebrates per leaf pack (range: 19–1,283), and the most abundant taxonomic groups were Cladocera, Isopoda, Acariformes, and Diptera. Invertebrate relative abundance varied significantly among litter species (approximately 39.9 ± 9.4 invertebrates per gram of leaf litter remaining in N. sylvatica leaf packs, 27.2 ± 5.3 invertebrates per gram of A. stricta, and 14.6 ± 3.1 invertebrates per gram of P. palustris (mean ± SE)) but not habitat type. However, both habitat (pseudo-F_1,49 = 4.30, P = 0.003) and leaf litter type (pseudo-F_2,49 = 3.62, P = 0.001) had a significant effect on invertebrate community composition. Finally, this work was part of ongoing projects focusing on the conservation of the critically imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds exclusively in pine flatwoods wetlands, and we examined the results as they relate to potential prey items for larval flatwoods salamanders. Overall, our results suggest that the vegetation changes associated with a lack of growing-season fires can impact both invertebrate communities and leaf litter breakdown.

Wildfire and climate change adaptation of western North American forests: a case for intentional management

Forest landscapes across western North America (wNA) have experienced extensive changes over the last two centuries, while climatic warming has become a global reality over the last four decades. Resulting interactions between historical increases in forested area and density and recent rapid warming, increasing insect mortality, and wildfire burned areas, are now leading to substantial abrupt landscape alterations. These outcomes are forcing forest planners and managers to identify strategies that can modify future outcomes that are ecologically and/or socially undesirable. Past forest management, including widespread harvest of fire- and climate-tolerant large old trees and old forests, fire exclusion (both Indigenous and lightning ignitions), and highly effective wildfire suppression have contributed to the current state of wNA forests. These practices were successful at meeting short-term demands, but they match poorly to modern realities. Hagmann et al. review a century of observations and multi-scale, multi-proxy, research evidence that details widespread changes in forested landscapes and wildfire regimes since the influx of European colonists. Over the preceding 10 millennia, large areas of wNA were already settled and proactively managed with intentional burning by Indigenous tribes. Prichard et al. then review the research on management practices historically applied by Indigenous tribes and currently applied by some managers to intentionally manage forests for resilient conditions. They address 10 questions surrounding the application and relevance of these management practices. Here, we highlight the main findings of both papers and offer recommendations for management. We discuss progress paralysis that often occurs with strict adherence to the precautionary principle; offer insights for dealing with the common problem of irreducible uncertainty and suggestions for reframing management and policy direction; and identify key knowledge gaps and research needs.

Refocusing multiple stressor research around the targets and scales of ecological impacts

Ecological communities face a variety of environmental and anthropogenic stressors acting simultaneously. Stressor impacts can combine additively or can interact, causing synergistic or antagonistic effects. Our knowledge of when and how interactions arise is limited, as most models and experiments only consider the effect of a small number of non-interacting stressors at one or few scales of ecological organization. This is concerning because it could lead to significant underestimations or overestimations of threats to biodiversity. Furthermore, stressors have been largely classified by their source rather than by the mechanisms and ecological scales at which they act (the target). Here, we argue, first, that a more nuanced classification of stressors by target and ecological scale can generate valuable new insights and hypotheses about stressor interactions. Second, that the predictability of multiple stressor effects, and consistent patterns in their impacts, can be evaluated by examining the distribution of stressor effects across targets and ecological scales. Third, that a variety of existing mechanistic and statistical modelling tools can play an important role in our framework and advance multiple stressor research.

Concordant phylogeographic responses to large-scale coastal disturbance in intertidal macroalgae and their epibiota

Major ecological disturbance events can provide opportunities to assess multispecies responses to upheaval. In particular, catastrophic disturbances that regionally extirpate habitat-forming species can potentially influence the genetic diversity of large numbers of codistributed taxa. However, due to the rarity of such disturbance events over ecological timeframes, the genetic dynamics of multispecies recolonization processes have remained little understood. Here, we use single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from multiple coastal species to track the dynamics of cocolonization events in response to ancient earthquake disturbance in southern New Zealand. Specifically, we use a comparative phylogeographic approach to understand the extent to which epifauna (with varying ecological associations with their macroalgal hosts) share comparable spatial and temporal recolonization patterns. Our study reveals concordant disturbance-related phylogeographic breaks in two intertidal macroalgal species along with two associated epibiotic species (a chiton and an isopod). By contrast, two codistributed species, one of which is an epibiotic amphipod and the other a subtidal macroalga, show few, if any, genetic effects of palaeoseismic coastal uplift. Phylogeographic model selection reveals similar post-uplift recolonization routes for the epibiotic chiton and isopod and their macroalgal hosts. Additionally, codemographic analyses support synchronous population expansions of these four phylogeographically similar taxa. Our findings indicate that coastal paleoseismic activity has driven concordant impacts on multiple codistributed species, with concerted recolonization events probably facilitated by macroalgal rafting. These results highlight that high-resolution comparative genomic data can help reconstruct concerted multispecies responses to recent ecological disturbance.

Understanding and Modeling Forest Disturbance Interactions at the Landscape Level

Disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, affect the configuration, composition, and function of forested ecosystems. Complex system behaviors emerge from the interactions between disturbance regimes, the vegetation response to those disturbances, and their interplay with multiple drivers (climate, topography, land use, etc.) across spatial and temporal scales. Here, we summarize conceptual advances and empirical approaches to disturbance interaction investigation, and used those insights to evaluate and categorize 146 landscape modeling studies emerging from a systematic review of the literature published since 2010. Recent conceptual advances include formal disaggregation of disturbances into their constituent components, embedding disturbance processes into system dynamics, and clarifying terminology for interaction factors, types, and ecosystem responses. Empirical studies investigating disturbance interactions now span a wide range of approaches, including (most recently) advanced statistical methods applied to an expanding set of spatial and temporal datasets. Concurrent development in spatially-explicit landscape models, informed by these empirical insights, integrate the interactions among natural and anthropogenic disturbances by coupling these processes to account for disturbance stochasticity, disturbance within and across scales, and non-linear landscape responses to climate change. Still, trade-offs between model elegance and complexity remain. We developed an index for the degree of process integration (i.e., balance of static vs. dynamic components) within a given disturbance agent and applied it to the studies from our systematic review. Contemporary model applications in this line of research have applied a wide range process integration, depending on the specific question, but also limited in part by data and knowledge. Non-linear “threshold” behavior and cross-scaled interactions remain a frontier in temperate, boreal, and alpine regions of North America and Europe, while even simplistic studies are lacking from other regions of the globe (e.g., subtropical and tropical biomes). Understanding and planning for uncertainty in system behavior—including disturbance interactions—is paramount at a time of accelerated anthropogenic change. While progress in landscape modeling studies in this area is evident, work remains to increase model transparency and confidence, especially for understudied regions and processes. Moving forward, a multi-dimensional approach is recommended to address the uncertainties of complex human-ecological dynamics.

Intermediate ice scour disturbance is key to maintaining a peak in biodiversity within the shallows of the Western Antarctic Peninsula

Climate-related disturbance regimes are changing rapidly with profound consequences for ecosystems. Disturbance is often perceived as detrimental to biodiversity; however, the literature is divided on how they influence each other. Disturbance events in nature are diverse, occurring across numerous interacting trophic levels and multiple spatial and temporal scales, leading to divergence between empirical and theoretical studies. The shallow Antarctic seafloor has one of the largest disturbance gradients on earth, due to iceberg scouring. Scour rates are changing rapidly along the Western Antarctic Peninsula because of climate change and with further changes predicted, the Antarctic benthos will likely undergo dramatic shifts in diversity. We investigated benthic macro and megafaunal richness across 10–100 m depth range, much of which, 40–100 m, has rarely been sampled. Macro and megafauna species richness peaked at 50–60 m depth, a depth dominated by a diverse range of sessile suspension feeders, with an intermediate level of iceberg disturbance. Our results show that a broad range of disturbance values are required to detect the predicted peak in biodiversity that is consistent with the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, suggesting ice scour is key to maintaining high biodiversity in Antarctica’s shallows.

Lake microbial communities are not resistant or resilient to repeated large-scale natural pulse disturbances

Opportunities to study community level responses to extreme natural pulse disturbances in unaltered ecosystems are rare. Lake sediment records that span thousands of years can contain well resolved sediment pulses, triggered by earthquakes. These paleo-records provide a means to study repeated pulse disturbance and processes of resistance (insensitivity to disturbance) and ecological resilience (capacity to regain structure, function and process). In this study, sedimentary DNA was extracted from a sediment core from Lake Paringa (New Zealand) that is situated in a near natural catchment. Metabarcoding and inferred functions were used to assess the lake microbial community over the past 1,100 years - a period that included four major earthquakes. Microbial community composition and function differed significantly between highly perturbed (postseismic, c. 50 yrs) phases directly after the earthquakes and more stable (interseismic, c. 250 yr) phases, indicating a lack of community resistance. Although community structure differed significantly in successive postseismic phases, function did not, suggesting potential functional redundancy. Significant differences in composition and function in successive interseismic phases demonstrates communities are not resilient to large-scale natural pulse disturbances. The clear difference in structure and function, and high number of indicator taxa (responsible for driving differences in communities between phases) in the fourth interseismic phase likely represents a regime shift, possibly due to the two-fold increase in sediment and terrestrial biospheric organic carbon fluxes recorded following the fourth earthquake. Large pulse disturbances that enhance sediment inputs into lake systems may produce an underappreciated mechanism that destabilises lake ecosystem processes.

DynaMETE: a hybrid MaxEnt-plus-mechanism theory of dynamic macroecology

The Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology (METE) predicts the shapes of macroecological metrics in relatively static ecosystems, across spatial scales, taxonomic categories and habitats, using constraints imposed by static state variables. In disturbed ecosystems, however, with time-varying state variables, its predictions often fail. We extend macroecological theory from static to dynamic by combining the MaxEnt inference procedure with explicit mechanisms governing disturbance. In the static limit, the resulting theory, DynaMETE, reduces to METE but also predicts a new scaling relationship among static state variables. Under disturbances, expressed as shifts in demographic, ontogenic growth or migration rates, DynaMETE predicts the time trajectories of the state variables as well as the time-varying shapes of macroecological metrics such as the species abundance distribution and the distribution of metabolic rates over individuals. An iterative procedure for solving the dynamic theory is presented. Characteristic signatures of the deviation from static predictions of macroecological patterns are shown to result from different kinds of disturbance. By combining MaxEnt inference with explicit dynamical mechanisms of disturbance, DynaMETE is a candidate theory of macroecology for ecosystems responding to anthropogenic or natural disturbances.

Out of the OCBILs: new hypotheses for the evolution, ecology and conservation of the eucalypts

OCBIL theory is a multi-hypothesis formulation aimed towards an understanding of the evolution, ecology and conservation of biological and cultural diversity on old, climatically buffered, infertile landscapes (OCBILs). OCBILs have been in existence contemporaneously with rainforest since Gondwanan times. Such landscapes are common in areas of eucalypt species richness embraced by Australia’s two Global Biodiversity Hotspots, the Southwest Australian Floristic Region and the Forests of East Australia. Here, I summarize evidence pertaining to the eucalypts in the context of a recent reformulation of OCBIL theory into 12 evolutionary, ecological and cultural hypotheses and ten conservation management hypotheses. A compelling argument emerges for a new interpretation of the eucalypts evolving out of the OCBILs, rather than out of the rainforests as traditionally interpreted. This calls for a significant reinterpretation of best conservation management of the eucalypts. For example, traditional ideas on application of fire in eucalypt communities regarded as well adapted to this disturbance need to give way to a more nuanced and cautious view. This review of eucalypts seen as evolving out of the OCBILs helps in understanding the group from several new perspectives. Interpretation of other sedentary plant and animal groups as out of the OCBILs is commended for further study.

Landscape Transformation Influences Responses of Terrestrial Small Mammals to Land Use Intensity in North-Central Namibia

In this study, we investigate and compare the response patterns of small mammal communities to increasing land use intensity in two study areas: private farmland at the southern boundary of Etosha National Park and smallholder farmland in Tsumeb agricultural area. Species richness, community composition and a standardized capture index (RCI) are compared between sites of (a) increasing grazing pressure of ungulates (Etosha) and (b) increasing conversion of bushland to arable land (Tsumeb). Within each study area, we found clear response patterns towards increasing land use intensity. However, patterns differ significantly between the two areas. Within the less-transformed area (Etosha), high land use intensity results in a decrease in the RCI but not species richness. Small mammal communities remain relatively stable, but ecosystem functions (e.g., bioturbation, seed dispersal) are weakened. Within the more-transformed area (Tsumeb), high land use intensity leads to a decrease in species richness and increasing RCIs of two common pest species. The disappearance of a balanced community and the dramatic increase in a few pest species has the potential to threaten human livelihoods (e.g., crop damage, disease vectors). Our comparative approach clearly indicates that Gerbilliscus leucogaster is a possible candidate for an ecological indicator of ecosystem integrity. Mastomys natalensis has the potential to become an important pest species when bushland is transformed into irrigated arable land. Our results support the importance of area-specific conservation and management measures in savanna ecosystems.

Disturbance, dispersal and marine assemblage structure: A case study from the nearshore Southern Ocean

Disturbance is a key factor in most natural environments and, globally, disturbance regimes are changing, driven by increased anthropogenic influences, including climate change. There is, however, still a lack of understanding about how disturbance interacts with species dispersal capacity to shape marine assemblage structure. We examined the impact of ice scour disturbance history (2009-2016) on the nearshore seafloor in a highly disturbed region of the Western Antarctic Peninsula by contrasting the response of two groups with different dispersal capacities: one consisting of high-dispersal species (mobile with pelagic larvae) and one of low-dispersal species (sessile with benthic larvae). Piecewise Structural Equation Models were constructed to test multi-factorial predictions of the underlying mechanisms, based on hypothesised responses to disturbance for the two groups. At least two or three disturbance factors, acting at different spatial scales, drove assemblage composition. A comparison between both high- and low-dispersal models demonstrated that these mechanisms are dispersal dependent. Disturbance should not be treated as a single metric, but should incorporate remote and direct disturbance events with consideration of taxa-dispersal and disturbance legacy. These modelling approaches can provide insights into how disturbance shapes assemblages in other disturbance regimes, such as fire-prone forests and trawl fisheries.

US National Maps Attributing Forest Change: 1986–2010

National monitoring of forestlands and the processes causing canopy cover loss, be they abrupt or gradual, partial or stand clearing, temporary (disturbance) or persisting (deforestation), are necessary at fine scales to inform management, science and policy. This study utilizes the Landsat archive and an ensemble of disturbance algorithms to produce maps attributing event type and timing to >258 million ha of contiguous Unites States forested ecosystems (1986–2010). Nationally, 75.95 million forest ha (759,531 km2) experienced change, with 80.6% attributed to removals, 12.4% to wildfire, 4.7% to stress and 2.2% to conversion. Between regions, the relative amounts and rates of removals, wildfire, stress and conversion varied substantially. The removal class had 82.3% (0.01 S.E.) user’s and 72.2% (0.02 S.E.) producer’s accuracy. A survey of available national attribution datasets, from the data user’s perspective, of scale, relevant processes and ecological depth suggests knowledge gaps remain.

Connectance and nestedness as stabilizing factors in response to pulse disturbances in adaptive antagonistic networks

Understanding how network architectures are related to community robustness is essential to investigating the effects of disturbances on biological systems. Regarding the perturbations that are observed in disturbance regimes, frequency and intensity are two main descriptors, specifically for those events with short duration. Here, I used the architecture of 45 real-world weighted bipartite networks to assess whether network size, connectance, and nestedness are related to the effects of pulse disturbances in antagonistic communities. Networks were simulated under five scenarios with different combinations of frequency and intensity of perturbations. The dynamics of resource-consumer interactions followed the adaptive interaction switching behavior, which is the key topological process underlying most of the architectures of antagonistic webs. As opposed to most studies considering the effects of disturbances as species extinctions explicitly, the effects of disturbances here were modeled as changes in the abundance of consumers following immediate reductions in the abundance of resources. Simulations revealed that community robustness to pulse disturbances increased with both connectance and nestedness overall, with no effect of network size. Community networks with highly connected and nested topologies were more robust to disturbances, particularly under high frequency and intensity perturbations. By considering disturbances that are not directly related to species' extinctions, this study provides valuable insights that connectance and nestedness have an important stabilizing role in ecological networks.

Long-Term Ecological Research and Evolving Frameworks of Disturbance Ecology

Detecting and understanding disturbance is a challenge in ecology that has grown more critical with global environmental change and the emergence of research on social–ecological systems. We identify three areas of research need: developing a flexible framework that incorporates feedback loops between social and ecological systems, anticipating whether a disturbance will change vulnerability to other environmental drivers, and incorporating changes in system sensitivity to disturbance in the face of global changes in environmental drivers. In the present article, we review how discoveries from the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network have influenced theoretical paradigms in disturbance ecology, and we refine a framework for describing social–ecological disturbance that addresses these three challenges. By operationalizing this framework for seven LTER sites spanning distinct biomes, we show how disturbance can maintain or alter ecosystem state, drive spatial patterns at landscape scales, influence social–ecological interactions, and cause divergent outcomes depending on other environmental changes.