Trends of the Global, Regional, and National Incidence of Measles, Vaccine Coverage, and Risk Factors in 204 Countries From 1990 to 2019

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Measles Vaccination Coverage and Estimated Catch-up Efforts for Serbia

BACKGROUND

Measles is highly infectious, requiring ≥95% vaccine coverage rate (VCR) to prevent outbreaks. This study aimed to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on routine measles-containing vaccine (MCV) VCRs in Serbia and estimate national and regional catch-up vaccination required to prevent outbreaks.

METHODS

A multiplier model was used to calculate annual MCV dose 1 (MCV1) and MCV dose 2 (MCV2) VCRs for children 1-6 and 6-12 years of age, respectively, for 2011-2022. Postpandemic (2023-2024) VCRs were modeled. The numbers of administered doses were compared to prepandemic and postpandemic, and monthly catch-up rates were calculated for 12-, 18- and 24-month campaigns.

RESULTS

Between prepandemic and pandemic periods, national MCV1 VCR decreased from 88% to 81%, while MCV2 VCR decreased from 92% to 89%, corresponding to 20,856 missed MCV1 and 8760 missed MCV2 doses. Assuming national VCRs returned to prepandemic levels post-2022, 18% of children 1-6 years of age and 11% of children 6-12 years of age would have missed their MCV1 and MCV2 doses, respectively, by 2024. To catch up missed doses under this scenario, most regions would require monthly catch-up rates of 25%, 16% or 12% for MCV1 and 14%, 9% or 7% for MCV2, considering 12-, 18- or 24-month campaigns, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic negatively impacted MCV VCRs in Serbia, leaving a sizeable proportion of children with missed doses. Significant catch-up efforts are required to recover VCRs to prepandemic levels and avoid future measles outbreaks, with increased monthly administration rates versus those in prepandemic periods.

Measles resurgence in Armenia: unmasking health system vulnerabilities and crafting comprehensive eradication strategies - a review

Measles is an acute febrile illness associated with rashes, fever and life-threatening complications. It is a vaccine-preventable disease with the Measles Mumps Rubella(MMR) vaccine but a recent global trend unveils a resurgence of measles in various parts of the world including Armenia. Measles was declared eliminated from Armenia in 2021 before reports of local outbreaks surfaced in 2023. The WHO identified discrepancies in the vaccination coverage during COVID-19. Measles also poses a great financial burden as a public health issue worldwide. Sociocultural factors impacting measles transmission are maternal education, healthcare access, migration, vaccine hesitancy, and socioeconomic status (Table 3). Efforts to control and eradicate measles from Armenia are run by a collaborative approach of national and international health bodies such as United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), WHO, Global Vaccine Alliance (GAVI), and the Ministry of Health. Thus, the resurgence of measles can be managed through widespread patient education, innovative approaches, strengthening the healthcare system and addressing vaccine hesitancy, sociocultural barriers, and humanitarian emergencies. This review investigates the complicated dynamics of measles inside Armenia's health system in depth. A thorough examination of measles incidence and immunization patterns highlights the shift from few cases and high vaccination rates to a comeback caused by imported viruses. The causes of its recurrence have been thoroughly investigated, including reduced immunization programs and vaccine hesitancy. The research delves further into the 'One Health' idea, assessing the possibility of interspecies transmission among nonhuman primates and examining the environmental factors that influence measles transmission. Among the challenges are weaknesses within Armenia's health system as well as the possibility of interruptions from the COVID-19 outbreak. In measles vaccination status, the combination of maternal education, postnatal care, and socioeconomic variables exposes the larger drivers at work. The study concludes with a comprehensive set of public health policy recommendations covering vaccination promotion, surveillance, healthcare provider education, public awareness, international collaboration, data analysis, law enforcement, emergency preparedness, research, and coordination. The research sheds light on the tangled web of measles dynamics, health system resilience, and contextual subtleties via this multifaceted approach, inviting readers to investigate the multiple strategies required for eliminating measles in Armenia.

Global Landscape of Encephalitis: Key Priorities to Reduce Future Disease Burden

Encephalitis affects people across the lifespan, has high rates of mortality and morbidity, and results in significant neurological sequelae with long-term consequences to quality of life and wider society. The true incidence is currently unknown due to inaccurate reporting systems. The disease burden of encephalitis is unequally distributed across the globe being highest in low- and middle-income countries where resources are limited. Here countries often lack diagnostic testing, with poor access to essential treatments and neurological services, and limited surveillance and vaccination programs. Many types of encephalitis are vaccine preventable, whereas others are treatable with early diagnosis and appropriate management. In this viewpoint, we provide a narrative review of key aspects of diagnosis, surveillance, treatment, and prevention of encephalitis and highlight priorities for public health, clinical management, and research, to reduce the disease burden.

Health system barriers to timely routine measles vaccinations in rural southwest China: a qualitative study on the perspectives of township vaccination professionals and village doctors

OBJECTIVES

A well-functioning health system ensures timely routine measles vaccinations for age-appropriate children, minimising measles risk. However, there is limited knowledge about the impact of the performance of immunisation programmes in health systems on the timeliness of measles vaccination. This study aimed to identify health system barriers to timely routine measles vaccination in rural southwest China, integrating the perspectives of township vaccination professionals and village doctors.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Qualitative study among township vaccination professionals and village doctors in rural Guangxi, southwest China.

METHODS

20 focus group discussions (FGDs) at township level and 120 in-depth interviews (IDIs) at village level, based on a four-theme framework. We used convenience sampling to recruit 60 township vaccination professionals and 120 village doctors in 2015. Instruments used were a semistructured questionnaire and interview outlines. We collected township and village-level data focusing on themes of health resources allocation, pattern of vaccination services, management and supervision of vaccination services, and perceptions of vaccination policy. The FGDs and IDIs were audio-recorded and transcribed. Braun and Clarke's thematic analysis approach was adopted to synthesise findings into meaningful subthemes, narrative text and illustrative quotations.

RESULTS

The health system barriers to timely routine vaccinations were explored across four themes. Barriers in the health resources allocation theme comprised (1) inadequacy of vaccination-related human resources (eg, lack of township vaccination professionals and lack of young village doctors), and (2) incompatible and non-identical information system of vaccination services across regions. Barriers in the pattern of vaccination services theme included inflexible vaccination services models, for example, routine vaccination services being offered monthly on fixed vaccination days, limited numbers of vaccination days per month, vaccination days being set on non-local market days, vaccination days being clustered into a specific period and absence of formal vaccination appointments. Ineffective economic incentive mechanism was identified as a barrier in the management and supervision of vaccination services theme. Low-degree participation of village doctors in routine vaccination services was identified as a barrier in the perceptions of vaccination policy theme.

CONCLUSIONS

We encourage policymakers and stakeholders to apply these findings to improve the timeliness of routine vaccination. Barriers to timely routine vaccination include inadequate allocation of vaccination-related resources and inflexible vaccination service delivery models. Financial and non-financial incentives should be used to retain and recruit vaccination professionals and village doctors. Strengthening information systems with unified data standards enables cross-regional data exchange. Optimising immunisation services and rationalising vaccination days could eliminate health system barriers and improve vaccination timeliness in rural China.

A Measles Outbreak in Riyadh in 2023: Clinical and Epidemiological Characteristics

Background Measles is a highly contagious viral disease that has recently made headlines due to outbreaks in several parts of the world. The disease can cause serious health complications, especially in young children, which has led to concerns about vaccination rates and public health policies. This study aims to investigate and describe the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of measles infection among children in Riyadh. Methodology We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional study among all pediatric patients with confirmed measles infection at a tertiary hospital from January 15, 2023, to March 15, 2023. We collected data including demographic characteristics, clinical presentations, and clinical outcomes. Results A total of 63 confirmed measles cases were reported. Most patients were under four years of age (82.7%), and 85.7% were unvaccinated. Adenovirus was the most common viral coinfection (12.7%). The most common complication was pneumonia (58.7%). Chest X-ray findings reported a localized right parenchymal infiltrate in 19% of patients and a patchy bilateral infiltrate in 15.9% of patients. In addition, 88.9% required hospital admission secondary to dehydration (47.6%) and hypoxia (41.3%). Among admitted patients, 17.5% were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU), 9.5% were admitted due to respiratory failure, and 6.3% due to septic shock. Children under one year of age had a higher risk for PICU admission (p < 0.05). The mortality rate was 1.6%. Conclusions Measles is a serious disease that causes significant health effects and incurs high financial costs for public health systems. Vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent measles outbreaks and reduce their impact on individuals and communities.

Pervasive Parental Hesitancy and Resistance towards Measles Rubella Vaccination in Jordan

Measles remains a highly contagious and potentially severe infectious disease, necessitating high vaccine coverage. However, misinformation and measles vaccine hesitancy/resistance have posed significant challenges to achieving this goal. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated these challenges, leading to a measles outbreak in Jordan in 2023. This study aimed to investigate the acceptance of the measles rubella (MR) vaccine among parents in Jordan and to identify its associated determinants. This cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was conducted using a previously Arabic-validated version of the Parental Attitudes towards Childhood Vaccines (PACV) survey instrument. Data collection took place in October 2023, and the final study sample comprised a total of 391 parents, with mothers representing 69.8% of the participants (n = 273). The majority of participating parents expressed either resistance (n = 169, 43.2%) or hesitancy (n = 168, 43.0%) towards MR vaccination, while only 54 participants (13.8%) expressed MR vaccine acceptance. Multivariate analysis revealed that trust in vaccine safety/efficacy, behavior, and having fewer offspring were significantly associated with MR vaccine acceptance. The current study revealed a concerning level of MR vaccine hesitancy/resistance among parents in Jordan, which could signal a public health alarm in the country. Urgent and targeted interventions are strongly recommended to address this issue, including mass campaigns aimed at building trust in the MR vaccine's safety/efficacy. Additionally, there is an urgent need for effective public health initiatives to ensure sufficient measles vaccine coverage to prevent future outbreaks of this serious disease.

Epidemiology of confirmed measles virus cases, surveillance, incidence, and associated factors in Eritrea: 18-year retrospective analysis

Background

Despite the outstanding measles vaccine coverage (MVC) in Eritrea, sporadic outbreaks are not uncommon. Therefore, understanding the incidence of laboratory-confirmed measles virus cases, related factors, and spatial inequalities in testing and surveillance remains crucial. In this analysis, we evaluated the incidence and spatiotemporal distribution of measles in Eritrea. An evaluation of the factors associated with measles vaccination and IgM positive (+) febrile rash was also undertaken.

Methods

A retrospective (period: 2002-2020) study was carried out by abstracting data from the integrated disease surveillance and response database (IDSR). Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. Spatial variability and distribution of confirmed cases was evaluated using ArcGIS Pro version 3.0.1.

Results

In total, 9,111 suspected cases, 2,767 [1,431 (51.7%) females] were serologically tested. The median (IQR) age, minimum-maximum age were 7 years (IQR: 4-14 years) and 1 month-97 years, respectively. Among the 608(21.9%) laboratory-confirmed cases, 534 (87.8%) were unvaccinated and 53 (9.92%) were < 1 year old. The crude incidence rate for MV was 14/100,000 persons. The age-specific positivity rate per 100,000 suspected cases tested was 21.5 with individuals >30 years presenting with the highest rates (69.9/100,000). Higher odds (OR) of MV test positivity was associated with age at onset - higher in the following age-bands [10-14 years: OR = 1.6 (95%CI, 1.1-2.2, value of p = 0.005); 15-29 years: OR = 7.0 (95%CI, 5.3-9.2, value of p = 0.005); and > =30 years: OR = 16.7 (95%CI, 11.7-24) p < 0.001]. Other associations included: Address - higher in Anseba (OR = 2.3, 95%CI: 1.7-3.1, value of p<0.001); Debub (OR = 2.7, 95%CI: 1.9-3.9, value of p < 0.001); Gash-Barka (OR = 15.4, 95%CI: 10.9-21.7, value of p < 0.001); Northern Red Sea (OR = 11.8, 95%CI: 8.5-16.2, value of p < 0.001); and Southern Red Sea (OR = 14.4, 95%CI: 8.2-25.2, value of p < 0.001). Further, test positivity was higher in health centers (OR = 2.5, 95%CI: 1.9-3.4, value of p < 0.001) and hospitals (OR = 6.8, 95%CI: 5.1-9.1, value of p < 0.001). Additional factors included vaccination status - higher in the unvaccinated (OR = 14.7, 95%CI: 11.4-19.1, value of p < 0.001); and year of onset of rash - (higher >2015: OR = 1.4, 95%CI: 1.1-1.7, value of p<0.001). Uptake of measles vaccine associated with a similar complement of factors.

Conclusion

In large part, efforts to eliminate measles in Eritrea are hindered by disparities in vaccine coverage, under-surveillance, and low vaccination rates in neighboring countries. Enhanced surveillance and regional micro planning targeting hard-to-reach areas can be an effective strategy to improve measles elimination efforts in Eritrea.

Utility of MF-non coding region for measles molecular surveillance during post-elimination phase, Spain, 2017-2020

Background

In countries entering the post-elimination phase for measles, the study of variants by sequencing of 450 nucleotides of the N gene (N450) does not always allow the tracing of chains of transmission. Indeed, between 2017 and 2020, most measles virus sequences belonged to either the MVs/Dublin.IRL/8.16 (B3-Dublin) or the MVs/Gir Somnath.IND/42.16 (D8-Gir Somnath) variants. We evaluated the additional use of a non-coding region (MF-NCR) as a tool to enhance resolution and infer case origin, chains of transmission and characterize outbreaks.

Methods

We obtained 115 high-quality MF-NCR sequences from strains collected from Spanish patients infected with either B3-Dublin or D8-Gir Somnath variants between 2017 and 2020, performed epidemiological, phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses and applied a mathematical model to determine relatedness among identified clades.

Results

Applying this model allowed us to identify phylogenetic clades potentially derived from concomitant importations of the virus rather than single chain of transmission, inferred based on only N450 and epidemiology data. In a third outbreak, we found two related clades that corresponded to two chains of transmission.

Discussion

Our results show the ability of the proposed method to improve identification of simultaneous importations in the same region which could trigger enhanced contact tracing. Moreover, the identification of further transmission chains indicates that the size of import-related outbreaks was smaller than previously found, supporting the interpretation that endemic measles transmission was absent in Spain between 2017 and 2020. We suggest considering the use of the MF-NCR region in conjunction with the study of N450 variants in future WHO recommendations for measles surveillance.

The Global Burden of Appendicitis in 204 Countries and Territories from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

Appendicitis is a common surgical emergency. This study aimed to estimate the worldwide burden and trends of appendicitis from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data on appendicitis were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data were analyzed at global, regional, and national levels and stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index. The estimated annual percentage change and relative change were used to assess changing trends. Pearson's correlation test was used to assess the correlation between different measures.

RESULTS

Global incidence grew by 63.55% between 1990 and 2019, age-standardized incidence rate climbed by an estimated percentage change of 0.58 per year, whereas the number of DALY declined by 31.93% during the same period, with an estimated annual percentage change of -2.77. In 2019, the areas of Andean Latin America and the Caribbean had the highest age-standardized rates of incidence and DALYs. While South Asia saw the largest increase in age-standardized incidence rates, Andean Latin America saw the biggest decline in age-standardized rates of incidence and DALYs. At the national level, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Peru were the top three countries in terms of age-standardized incidence rates in 2019, and Honduras, Haiti, and the Central African Republic held the highest age-standardized DALY rates. Ethiopia experienced the most age-standardized incidence rate increase, and Peru saw the largest decline in age-standardized rate of incidence and DALYs. Significant negative correlations between age-standardized DALY rates and socio-demographic index, between estimated annual percentage change and age-standardized incidence rates, were observed at the national level.

CONCLUSION

Appendicitis remains a major global health concern. Although the trends in DALYs decreased, the burden of incidence increased from 1990 to 2019. Policymakers should create health policies adapted to local conditions to manage the burden of appendicitis globally.

Geographical and time trends of measles incidence and measles vaccination coverage and their correlation in Nigeria

Nigeria has one of the highest measles burdens in the world. While measles-containing vaccine is proven to be effective in reducing measles cases, empirical studies on the correlation between measles incidence and measles vaccine coverage in Nigeria has been limited. The aim of this study was to conduct a detailed analysis on measles incidence, measles vaccine coverage, and their correlation between 2012 and 2021. A retrospective observational study was conducted based on the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) data for the measles incidence in each Nigerian state over time, District Health Information System, V.2 (DHIS2) and Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for the coverage of the first dose of measles containing vaccine (MCV1) over time (2012-2021). We observed the trend of measles incidence and measles vaccine coverage, as well as their correlation. Out of the study period from 2012 to 2021, we found that the majority of measles outbreaks occurred in the northeastern states in recent years after 2019, especially in Borno state, where Boko Haram insurgency has negatively impacted health service delivery, including routine vaccination. We observed a significant negative correlation between measles incidence and measles vaccine coverage across Nigerian states. However, there was no sudden drop in measles vaccine coverage before the recent outbreak in Borno state in 2019, which could be due to various factors other than the overall vaccine coverage.