Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades

Droughts have been implicated as the main driver behind recent vegetation die-off and are projected to drive greater mortality under future climate change. Understanding the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought has been of great global interest. Currently, the coupling relationship between vegetation and drought is mainly evaluated by correlation coefficients or regression slopes. However, the optimal drought timescale of vegetation response to drought, as a key indicator reflecting vegetation sensitivity to drought, has largely been ignored. Here, we apply the optimal drought timescale identification method to examine the change in coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades (1982-2015) with long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index data. We find substantial increasing response of vegetation to drought timescales globally, and the correlation coefficient between vegetation and drought under optimal drought timescale overall declines between 1982 and 2015. This decrease in vegetation-drought coupling is mainly observed in regions with water deficit, although its initial correlation is relatively high. However, vegetation in water-surplus regions, with low coupling in earlier stages, is prone to show an increasing trend. The observed changes may be driven by the increasing trend of atmospheric CO2 . Our findings highlight more pressing drought risk in water-surplus regions than in water-deficit regions, which advances our understanding of the long-term vegetation-drought relationship and provides essential insights for mapping future vegetation sensitivity to drought under changing climate conditions.

Identification and prediction of climate factors based on factor analysis and a grey prediction model in China

Identifying and predicting the impacts of climate change are crucial for various purposes, such as maintaining biodiversity, agricultural production, ecological security, and environmental conservation in different regions. In this paper, we used the surface pressure (SP), surface temperature (ST), 2-m air temperature (AT), 2-m dewpoint temperature (DT), 10-m wind speed (WS), precipitation (PRE), relative humidity (RH), actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), potential evapotranspiration (ET_P), total solar radiation (TRs), net solar radiation (NRs), UV intensity (UVI), sunshine duration (SD), convective available potential energy (CAPE) as factors in our climate modeling. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the climate factors were analyzed and identified based on historical data for China from 1950 to 2020 using factor analysis and a grey model (GM (1,1)), and their future change characteristics were predicted. The results show that there is a strong correlation between climate factors. ST, AT, DT, PRE, RH, and ET_a are the main factors that have the potential to cause heavy rain, thunderstorms, and other severe weather. Meanwhile, PRE, RH, TR_s, NR_s, UVI, and SD are among the major factors linked to climate change. Specifically, SP, ST, AT, and WS are among the minor factors in most areas. The top ten provinces in terms of combined factor scores are Heilongjiang, Neimenggu, Qinghai, Beijing, Shandong, Xizang, Shanxi, Tianjin, Guangdong, and Henan. The trend of climate factors in China is expected to remain relatively stable over the next 30 years, with a noteworthy decrease observed in CAPE compared to the past 71 years. Our findings can help to better mitigate the risks associated with climate change and enhance resilience; they also provide a scientific basis for environmental, ecological, and agricultural systems to cope with climate change.

Linking remotely sensed ecosystem resilience with forest mortality across the continental United States

Episodes of forest mortality have been observed worldwide associated with climate change, impacting species composition and ecosystem services such as water resources and carbon sequestration. Yet our ability to predict forest mortality remains limited, especially across large scales. Time series of satellite imagery has been used to document ecosystem resilience globally, but it is not clear how well remotely sensed resilience can inform the prediction of forest mortality across continental, multi-biome scales. Here, we leverage forest inventories across the continental United States to systematically assess the potential of ecosystem resilience derived using different data sets and methods to predict forest mortality. We found high resilience was associated with low mortality in eastern forests but was associated with high mortality in western regions. The unexpected resilience-mortality relation in western United States may be due to several factors including plant trait acclimation, insect population dynamics, or resource competition. Overall, our results not only supported the opportunity to use remotely sensed ecosystem resilience to predict forest mortality but also highlighted that ecological factors may have crucial influences because they can reverse the sign of the resilience-mortality relationships.

Quantifying Vegetation Vulnerability to Climate Variability in China

Climate variability has profound effects on vegetation. Spatial distributions of vegetation vulnerability that comprehensively consider vegetation sensitivity and resilience are not well understood in China. Furthermore, the combination of cumulative climate effects and a one-month-lagged autoregressive model represents an advance in the technical approach for calculating vegetation sensitivity. In this study, the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation sensitivity to climate variability and vegetation resilience were investigated at seasonal scales. Further analysis explored the spatial distributions of vegetation vulnerability for different regions. The results showed that the spatial distribution pattern of vegetation vulnerability exhibited spatial heterogeneity in China. In spring, vegetation vulnerability values of approximately 0.9 were mainly distributed in northern Xinjiang and northern Inner Mongolia, while low values were scattered in Yunnan Province and the central region of East China. The highest proportion of severe vegetation vulnerability to climate variability was observed in the subhumid zone (28.94%), followed by the arid zone (26.27%). In summer and autumn, the proportions of severe vegetation vulnerability in the arid and humid zones were higher than those in the other climate zones. Regarding different vegetation types, the highest proportions of severe vegetation vulnerability were found in sparse vegetation in different seasons, while the highest proportions of slight vegetation vulnerability were found in croplands in different seasons. In addition, vegetation with high vulnerability is prone to change in Northeast and Southwest China. Although ecological restoration projects have been implemented to increase vegetation cover in northern China, low vegetation resilience and high vulnerability were observed in this region. Most grasslands, which were mainly concentrated on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, had high vulnerability. Vegetation areas with low resilience were likely to be degraded in this region. The areas with highly vulnerable vegetation on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau could function as warning signals of vegetation degradation. Knowledge of spatial patterns of vegetation resilience and vegetation vulnerability will help provide scientific guidance for regional environmental protection.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Terrestrial Vegetation and Its Driver Analysis over Southwest China from 1982 to 2015

Global environmental changes have been dramatic recently, exerting substantial effects on the structures and functions of terrestrial ecosystems, especially for the ecologically-fragile karst regions. Southwest China is one of the largest karst continuum belts around the world, which also contributes about 1/3 of terrestrial carbon sequestration to China. Therefore, a deep understanding of the long-term changes of vegetation across Southwest China over the past decades is critical. Relying on the long time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index (GIMMS NDVI3g) data set, this study examined the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation conditions in Southwest China from 1982 to 2015, as well as their response to the environmental factors including temperature, precipitation and downward shortwave radiation. Multi-year mean NDVI showed that except the northwestern region, the NDVI of Southwest China was large, ranging from 0.5 to 0.8. Meanwhile, nearly 43.7% of the area experienced significant improvements in NDVI, whereas only 3.47% of the area exhibited significant decreases in NDVI. Interestingly, the NDVI in karst area increased more quickly with 1.035 × 10−3/a in comparison with that in the non-karst area with about 0.929 × 10−3/a. Further analysis revealed that temperature is the dominant environmental factor controlling the interannual changes in NDVI, accounting for 48.19% of the area, followed by radiation (3.71%) and precipitation (3.09%), respectively.

Changing Sensitivity of Diverse Tropical Biomes to Precipitation Consistent with the Expected Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Effect

Global environmental changes have implications for the terrestrial ecosystem functioning, but disentangling individual effects remains elusive. The impact of vegetation responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is particularly poorly understood. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, the CO2 acts as a fertilizer for plant growth. An increase in atmospheric CO2 reduces the amount of water needed to produce an equivalent amount of biomass due to closing or a narrowing of the stomata that reduces the amount of water that is transpired by plants. To study the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on plant growth, we analyzed the growing season sensitivity of plant growth to climatic forcing from alpine to semi-desert eco-climatic zones of Ethiopia for various plant functional types over the period of 1982–2011. Growing season 3rd generation Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (NDVI) was used as a proxy of plant growth, while mean growing season precipitation (prec), temperature (temp), and solar radiation (sr) as the climate forcing. The sensitivities of plant growth are calculated as a partial correlation, and a derivative of NDVI with respect to prec, temp and sr for earliest and recent 15-year periods of the satellite records, and using a moving window of 15-year. Our results show increasing trends of plant growth that are not explained by any climate variables. We also find that an equivalent increase in prec leads to a larger increase in NDVI since the 1980s. This result implies a given amount of prec has sustained greater amounts of plant foliage materials over time due to decreasing transpiration with increasing CO2 concentration as expected from the CO2 fertilization effect on water use efficiency and plant growth. Increasing trends of growth in shallow-rooted vegetation tend to be associated with woody vegetation encroachment.

Changes in Vegetation Dynamics and Relations with Extreme Climate on Multiple Time Scales in Guangxi, China

Understanding the responses of vegetation to climate extremes is important for revealing vegetation growth and guiding environmental management. Guangxi was selected as a case region in this study. This study investigated the spatial-temporal variations of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and quantitatively explored effects of climate extremes on vegetation on multiple time scales during 1982–2015 by applying the Pearson correlation and time-lag analyses. The annual NDVI significantly increased in most areas with a regional average rate of 0.00144 year−1, and the highest greening rate appeared in spring. On an annual scale, the strengthened vegetation activity was positively correlated with the increased temperature indices, whereas on a seasonal or monthly scale, this was the case only in spring and summer. The influence of precipitation extremes mainly occurred on a monthly scale. The vegetation was negatively correlated with both the decreased precipitation in February and the increased precipitation in summer months. Generally, the vegetation significantly responded to temperature extremes with a time lag of at least one month, whereas it responded to precipitation extremes with a time lag of two months. This study highlights the importance of accounting for vegetation-climate interactions.

Contrasting vegetation response to climate change between two monsoon regions in Southwest China: The roles of climate condition and vegetation height

Southwest China is an important biodiversity hotspot in the world and is controlled by the Pacific and Indian Ocean monsoon in the east and west part respectively. However, how abiotic and biotic factors affect the response of vegetation to climate change in different monsoon regions is still not clear. Here we used the annual change rate of growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI trend) during 1982-2015 to explore the vulnerability of vegetation (forests and shrubs) activity to climate change in southwest China. We examined NDVI trend in relation to: 1) climate change trends, i.e. annual change rate of water and energy availability, indicated by the Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), respectively; 2) climatic condition, i.e. mean PDSI and PET during 1982-2015; 3) vegetation height; 4) biome type; 5) monsoon region. The results showed that NDVI generally increased in the Pacific monsoon region, especially in the southern areas, probably because the vegetation under more productive climate were more resistant to climate change, and also because decreased temperature lead to lower evapotranspiration which alleviated the slight drought trend in this region. In contrast, NDVI generally decreased in the Indian Ocean monsoon region which showed more pronounced drought trend, especially in the tall subalpine and tropical forests of Southeast Tibetan Mountains, which supports the "hydraulic limitation hypothesis" that vegetation height interacted with climate change in affecting vegetation vulnerability. Our analysis highlighted the critical roles of different monsoon systems, climate condition and vegetation height in affecting ecosystem vulnerability. We suggest that the (sub)tropical forests in the Pacific monsoon region may have act as an important carbon sink during the past decades, while the tall forests in Southeast Tibetan mountains (a biodiversity center with high carbon stock) are highly vulnerable to climate change and should have priority in ecosystem protection.

Vegetation dynamics and its linkage with climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Dawen River Watershed of China from 1999 through 2018

The Dawen River Watershed (DRW), an important sub-basin of the Yellow River, has been experiencing substantial climatic and anthropogenic stresses. Identifying how stressors relate to shifts in vegetation growth is critical for maintaining the health and stability of its regional ecosystems. To address this, we constructed a 20-year dataset (1999-2018) reflecting changes in satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), climate variables, and land use in the DRW. We then used time series, principal component, and partial correlation analyses to detect spatial and temporal patterns in vegetation dynamics over time, as well as linkages with temperature, precipitation, and anthropogenic activities. Over 20 years, the DRW exhibited a warming-greening trend and experienced four regime shifts in its climate-vegetation system, roughly centered on 2001, 2006, 2013, and 2016. Both the average and maximum NDVI increased in all seasons, likely due to favorable changes in seasonal climatic conditions. Temperature was the dominant factor promoting vegetative growth in spring, autumn, and throughout the growing season. Precipitation had a considerable positive effect on the average NDVI during the summer. Spatial analyses indicated that 67.94% of the study area exhibited significant increase in NDVI values over time, mainly locating in the mountains and in Dongping County; Significant NDVI decrease was generally located in the urban expansion areas around cities and counties. Land cover types and annual growth cycles appeared to govern spatial patterns and the extent of variation in vegetation growth, followed by land use-related drivers and climate anomalies. These findings offer an insight on appropriate ecological management and climatic adaptation within the Dawen River Watershed.

Quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes over multiple time scales on the Loess Plateau

Vegetation is a crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems, and its changes are driven mainly by a combination of climate change and human activities. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between vegetation and climate change by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and to find the cause of vegetation change by performing residual analysis on the Loess Plateau during the period from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that the NDVI on the Loess Plateau exhibited an increase of 0.086 per decade, and an increasing trend was observed across 94.86% of the total area. The relationship between the NDVI and SPEI was mainly positive, and the correlation increased as the time scale of the SPEI lengthened, indicating that long-term water availability was the major climate factor affecting vegetation growth. Residual analysis indicated that climate change was responsible for 45.78% of NDVI variation, while human activities were responsible for 54.22%. In areas with degraded vegetation, the relative roles of climate change and human activities were 28.11% and 72.89%, respectively. In addition, the relative role of climate change increased with an increase in the time scales, implying that the long-term NDVI trend was more sensitive to climate change then the short-term trend. The results of this study are expected to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes under climate change and human activities and provide a scientific basis for future ecological restoration in arid regions.

Greening and Browning Trends of Vegetation in India and Their Responses to Climatic and Non-Climatic Drivers

It is imperative to know the spatial distribution of vegetation trends in India and its responses to both climatic and non-climatic drivers because many ecoregions are vulnerable to global climate change. Here we employed the NDVI3g satellite data over the span of 35 years (1981/82–2015) to estimate vegetation trends and corresponding climatic variables trends (i.e., precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and soil moisture) by using the Mann–Kendall test (τ) and the Theil–Sen median trend. Analysis was performed separately for the two focal periods—(i) the earlier period (1981/82–2000) and (ii) later period (2000–2015)—because many ecoregions experienced more warming after 2000 than the 1980s and 1990s. Our results revealed that a prominent large-scale greening trend (47% of area) of vegetation continued from the earlier period to the later period (80% of area) across the northwestern Plain and Central India. Despite climatologically drier regions, the stronger greening trend was also evident over croplands which was attributed to moisture-induced greening combined with cooling trends of temperature. However, greening trends of vegetation and croplands diminished (i.e., from 84% to 40% of area in kharif season), especially over the southern peninsula, including the west-central area. Such changes were mostly attributed to warming trends and declined soil moisture trends, a phenomenon known as temperature-induced moisture stress. This effect has an adverse impact on vegetation growth in the Himalayas, Northeast India, the Western Ghats and the southern peninsula, which was further exaggerated by human-induced land-use change. Therefore, it can be concluded that vegetation trend analysis from NDVI3g data provides vital information on two mechanisms (i.e., temperature-induced moisture stress and moisture-induced greening) operating in India. In particular, the temperature-induced moisture stress is alarming, and may be exacerbated in the future under accelerated warming as it may have potential implications on forest and agriculture ecosystems, including societal impacts (e.g., food security, employment, wealth). These findings are very valuable to policymakers and climate change awareness-raising campaigns at the national level.

Variations in vegetation dynamics and its cause in national key ecological function zones in China

Continued long-term monitoring of vegetation activity in national key ecological function zones (NKEFZs) has implications for national ecological security and sustainability in China. We used Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) dataset to map and analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of change in vegetation growth and their linkage with climate change and human activities in NKEFZs during 1982-2013. Statistically significant increases of growing season, spring, and autumn NDVI were observed during all or most periods while 25 NKEFZs are taken as a whole. Non-significant decreases of NDVI were found in 7 NKEFZs during a few periods, and obvious increases were observed during fifteen periods in all other NKEFZs. Vegetation growth in NKEFZs was mainly regulated by a thermal factor, and the dominant climatic drivers varied across different regions and seasons. The influence of temperature was stronger on vegetation activity in spring and autumn for those NKEFZs located in high latitudes and high elevations, while precipitation was the main climatic control factor for NKEFZs in the arid and semi-arid regions. The effects of human activity on the NDVI of NKEFZs were not ignored; a significant decrease of NDVI in the Sanjiang Plain may be related to the rapid change in land use from wetland into farmland.

Spatial and temporal effects of drought on Chinese vegetation under different coverage levels

Land surface vegetation dynamics are strongly affected by drought. Thus, understanding the responses of vegetation to drought can inform measures to increase biome stability. In this study, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were utilized to investigate the relationship between vegetation activity and drought across different drought regions and ecological community types from 1982 to 2015. Our results showed that the highest correlation between monthly NDVI and PDSI at different timescales (1-36 months) indicated the degree of drought impact on vegetation. There were diverse responses of vegetation to drought according to the drought features and climatic environment. The northern grassland, cropland, and desert ecosystems were strongly impacted by drought. These vegetation ecosystems had a low sensitivity to drought in southern China. Drought had the strongest impact on grassland in summer, which is the high frequency drought season. The most susceptible ecosystem types to drought were those with homogenous vegetation, especially under long-term drought conditions (such as the Inner Mongolia Plateau dominated by grassland). Under global warming, drought with high-temperature characteristics is expected to become more frequent and severe. Such drought could threaten the survival of plateau grassland, arid plain grassland, and rain-fed cropland, as high temperatures accelerate evaporation, leading to water deficit. However, moist forests showed little threat under normal drought. We suggest that future research should focus on vegetation activity in northern and southwestern China, where the vegetation shows the greatest sensitivity to drought.

Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation coverage and its causes in China since the Chinese economic reform

With the rapid development of the economy over 40 years since the initiation of Chinese economic reform, terrestrial ecosystems in China have undergone large-scale changes. In this study, we investigated vegetation dynamics in China and their relationships with climatic factors and anthropogenic drivers over 15 progressive periods of 18-32 years starting in 1982. This was accomplished by using the third-generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset, night-time satellite data, and climate data. Across China, NDVI increased significantly during 1982-2013; especially significant increases were observed in all periods during the growing season and spring. At the pixel scale, 21-38% of the vegetated area in the 15 periods experienced a significant positive trend in vegetation growth. This increase was mostly located in central and southern China. A significant negative trend was observed in 1-8% of the vegetated area pixels, and this pattern was mainly seen in northwestern China, the Yangtze River Delta region, and the Pearl River Delta region. The contribution of spring NDVI to vegetation improvement increased, while the contribution of summer NDVI decreased. Vegetation activity in China was mainly regulated by thermal factors, especially pronounced in mountainous regions of northern China. However, the restrictive effect of moisture factors was very marked to vegetation growth in areas with less than 400 mm of precipitation. Urbanization in China has led to vegetation degradation in most urban centers and surrounding areas in central and eastern China. The increase of agricultural plantations, the Grain for Green Project, and a series ecological restoration projects in some areas have promoted vegetation coverage.

Long-Term Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Terrestrial Biophysical Variables in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China from Satellite and Meteorological Datasets

Terrestrial biophysical variables play an essential role in quantifying the amount of energy budget, water cycle, and carbon sink over the Three-River Headwaters Region of China (TRHR). However, direct field observations are missing in this region, and few studies have focused on the long-term spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial biophysical variables. In this study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of biophysical variables including meteorological variables, vegetation, and evapotranspiration (ET) over the TRHR, and analyzed the response of vegetation and ET to climate change in the period from 1982 to 2015. The main input gridded datasets included meteorological reanalysis data, a satellite-based vegetation index dataset, and the ET product developed by a process-based Priestley–Taylor algorithm. Our results illustrate that: (1) The air temperature and precipitation over the TRHR increased by 0.597 °C and 41.1 mm per decade, respectively, while the relative humidity and surface downward shortwave radiation declined at a rate of 0.9% and 1.8 W/m2 per decade during the period 1982–2015, respectively. We also found that a ‘dryer warming’ tendency and a ‘wetter warming’ tendency existed in different areas of the TRHR. (2) Due to the predominant ‘wetter warming’ tendency characterized by the increasing temperature and precipitation, more than 56.8% of areas in the TRHR presented a significant increment in vegetation (0.0051/decade, p < 0.05), particularly in the northern and western meadow areas. When energy was the limiting factor for vegetation growth, temperature was a considerably more important driving factor than precipitation. (3) The annual ET of the TRHR increased by 3.34 mm/decade (p < 0.05) with an annual mean of 230.23 mm/year. More importantly, our analysis noted that ET was governed by terrestrial water supply, e.g., soil moisture and precipitation in the arid region of the western TRHR. By contrast, atmospheric evaporative demand derived by temperature and relative humidity was the primary controlling factor over the humid region of the southeastern TRHR. It was noted that land management activities, e.g., irrigation, also had a nonnegligible impact on the temporal and spatial variation of ET.

Monitoring Drought Effects on Vegetation Productivity Using Satellite Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence

Around the world, the increasing drought, which is exacerbated by climate change, has significant impacts on vegetation carbon assimilation. Identifying how short-term climate anomalies influence vegetation productivity in a timely and accurate manner at the satellite scale is crucial to monitoring drought. Satellite solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has recently been reported as a direct proxy of actual vegetation photosynthesis and has more advantages than traditional vegetation indices (e.g., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI and the Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) in monitoring vegetation vitality. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of SIF in interpreting drought effects on vegetation productivity in Victoria, Australia, where heat stress and drought are often reported. Drought-induced variations in SIF and absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) estimations based on NDVI and EVI were investigated and validated against results indicated by gross primary production (GPP). We first compared drought responses of GPP and vegetation proxies (SIF and APAR) during the 2009 drought event, considering potential biome-dependency. Results showed that SIF exhibited more consistent declines with GPP losses induced by drought than did APAR estimations during the 2009 drought period in space and time, where APAR had obvious lagged responses compared with SIF, especially in evergreen broadleaf forest land. We then estimated the sensitivities of the aforementioned variables to meteorology anomalies using the ARx model, where memory effects were considered, and compared the correlations of GPP anomaly with the anomalies of vegetation proxies during a relatively long period (2007–2013). Compared with APAR, GPP and SIF are more sensitive to temperature anomalies for the general Victoria region. For crop land, GPP and vegetation proxies showed similar sensitivities to temperature and water availability. For evergreen broadleaf forest land, SIF anomaly was explained better by meteorology anomalies than APAR anomalies. GPP anomaly showed a stronger linear relationship with SIF anomaly than with APAR anomalies, especially for evergreen broadleaf forest land. We showed that SIF might be a promising tool for effectively evaluating short-term drought impacts on vegetation productivity, especially in drought-vulnerable areas, such as Victoria.

Global relationships among traditional reflectance vegetation indices (NDVI and NDII), evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture variability on weekly timescales

Monitoring the effects of water availability on vegetation globally using satellites is important for applications such as drought early warning, precision agriculture, and food security as well as for more broadly understanding relationships between water and carbon cycles. In this global study, we examine how quickly several satellite-based indicators, assumed to have relationships with water availability, respond, on timescales of days to weeks, in comparison with variations in root-zone soil moisture (RZM) that extends to about 1 m depth. The satellite indicators considered are the normalized difference vegetation and infrared indices (NDVI and NDII, respectively) derived from reflectances obtained with moderately wide (20-40 nm) spectral bands in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) and evapotranspiration (ET) estimated from thermal infrared observations and normalized by a reference ET. NDVI is primarily sensitive to chlorophyll contributions and vegetation structure while NDII may contain additional information on water content in leaves and canopy. ET includes both the loss of root zone soil water through transpiration (modulated by stomatal conductance) as well as evaporation from bare soil. We find that variations of these satellite-based drought indicators on time scales of days to weeks have significant correlations with those of RZM in the same water-limited geographical locations that are dominated by grasslands, shrublands, and savannas whose root systems are generally contained within the 1 m RZM layer. Normalized ET interannual variations show generally a faster response to water deficits and enhancements as compared with those of NDVI and NDII, particularly in sparsely vegetated regions.

Water memory effects and their impacts on global vegetation productivity and resilience

Memory effects refer to the impacts of antecedent climate conditions on current vegetation productivity. This temporal linkage has been found to be strong in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the dominant climatic factors that determine such patterns are still unclear. Here, we defined'water-memory effects' as the persistent effects of antecedent precipitation on the vegetation productivity for a given memory length (from 1 to up to 12 months). Based on satellite observations and climate data, we quantified the length of water-memory effects and evaluated the contributions of antecedent precipitation on current vegetation. Our results showed that vegetation productivity was highly dependent on antecedent precipitation in arid and semi-arid regions. The average length of water memory was approximately 5.6 months. Globally, water-memory effects could explain the geographical pattern and strength of memory effects, indicating that precipitation might be the dominant climatic factor determining memory effects because of its impact on water availability. Moreover, our results showed vegetation in regions with low mean annual precipitation or a longer water memory has lower engineering resilience (i.e. slower recovery rate) to disturbances. These findings will enable better assessment of memory effects and improve our understanding of the vulnerability of vegetation to climate change.

Nonlinear variations of forest leaf area index over China during 1982-2010 based on EEMD method

Variations in leaf area index (LAI) are critical to research on forest ecosystem structure and function, especially carbon and water cycle, and their responses to climate change. Using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and global inventory modeling and mapping studies (GIMMS) LAI3g dataset from 1982 to 2010, we analyzed the nonlinear feature and spatial difference of forest LAI variability over China for the past 29 years in this paper. Results indicated that the national-averaged forest LAI was characterized by quasi-3- and quasi-7-year oscillations, which generally exhibited a rising trend with an increasing rate. When compared with 1982, forest LAI change by 2010 was more evident than that by 1990 and 2000. The largest increment of forest LAI occurred in Central and South China, while along the southeastern coastal areas LAI increased at the fastest pace. During the study period, forest LAI experienced from decrease to increase or vice versa across much of China and varied monotonically for only a few areas. Focusing on regional-averaged trend processes, almost all eco-geographical regions showed continuously increasing trends in forest LAI with different magnitudes and speeds, other than tropical humid region and temperate humid/subhumid region, where LAI decreased initially and increased afterwards.

Droughts in India from 1981 to 2013 and Implications to Wheat Production

Understanding drought from multiple perspectives is critical due to its complex interactions with crop production, especially in India. However, most studies only provide singular view of drought and lack the integration with specific crop phenology. In this study, four time series of monthly meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture, and vegetation droughts from 1981 to 2013 were reconstructed for the first time. The wheat growth season (from October to April) was particularly analyzed. In this study, not only the most severe and widespread droughts were identified, but their spatial-temporal distributions were also analyzed alone and concurrently. The relationship and evolutionary process among these four types of droughts were also quantified. The role that the Green Revolution played in drought evolution was also studied. Additionally, the trends of drought duration, frequency, extent, and severity were obtained. Finally, the relationship between crop yield anomalies and all four kinds of drought during the wheat growing season was established. These results provide the knowledge of the most influential drought type, conjunction, spatial-temporal distributions and variations for wheat production in India. This study demonstrates a novel approach to study drought from multiple views and integrate it with crop growth, thus providing valuable guidance for local drought mitigation.

Vegetation Changes in the Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1982-2012: Different Responses Related to Geographical Locations and Vegetation Types in High-Altitude Areas

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) contains the largest permafrost area in a high-altitude region in the world, and the unique hydrothermal environments of the active layers in this region have an important impact on vegetation growth. Geographical locations present different climatic conditions, and in combination with the permafrost environments, these conditions comprehensively affect the local vegetation activity. Therefore, the responses of vegetation to climate change in the permafrost region of the QTP may be varied differently by geographical location and vegetation condition. In this study, using the latest Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) product based on turning points (TPs), which were calculated using a piecewise linear model, 9 areas within the permafrost region of the QTP were selected to investigate the effect of geographical location and vegetation type on vegetation growth from 1982 to 2012. The following 4 vegetation types were observed in the 9 selected study areas: alpine swamp meadow, alpine meadow, alpine steppe and alpine desert. The research results show that, in these study areas, TPs mainly appeared in 2000 and 2001, and almost 55.1% and 35.0% of the TPs were located in 2000 and 2001. The global standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and 7 meteorological variables were selected to analyze their correlations with NDVI. We found that the main correlative variables to vegetation productivity in study areas from 1982 to 2012 were precipitation, surface downward long-wave radiation and temperature. Furthermore, NDVI changes exhibited by different vegetation types within the same study area followed similar trends. The results show that regional effects rather than vegetation type had a larger impact on changes in vegetation growth in the permafrost regions of the QTP, indicating that climatic factors had a larger impact in the permafrost regions than the environmental factors (including permafrost) related to the underlying surface conditions.

NDVI indicated long-term interannual changes in vegetation activities and their responses to climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

Natural and social environmental changes in the China's Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) have received worldwide attention. Identifying interannual changes in vegetation activities in the TGRR is an important task for assessing the impact these changes have on the local ecosystem. We used long-term (1982-2011) satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets and climatic and anthropogenic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in the TGRR, as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), downward radiation (RAD), and anthropogenic activities. At the whole TGRR regional scale, a statistically significant overall uptrend in NDVI variations was observed in 1982-2011. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends split by a breakpoint in 1991: NDVI first sharply increased prior to 1991, and then showed a relatively weak rate of increase after 1991. At the pixel scale, most parts of the TGRR experienced increasing NDVI before the 1990s but different trend change types after the 1990s: trends were positive in forests in the northeastern parts, but negative in farmland in southwest parts of the TGRR. The TEM warming trend was the main climate-related driver of uptrending NDVI variations pre-1990s, and decreasing PRE was the main climate factor (42%) influencing the mid-western farmland areas' NDVI variations post-1990s. We also found that anthropogenic factors such as population density, man-made ecological restoration, and urbanization have notable impacts on the TGRR's NDVI variations. For example, large overall trend slopes in NDVI were more likely to appear in TGRR regions with large fractions of ecological restoration within the last two decades. The findings of this study may help to build a better understanding of the mechanics of NDVI variations in the periods before and during TGDP construction for ongoing ecosystem monitoring and assessment in the post-TGDP period.

Variation in stability of elk and red deer populations with abiotic and biotic factors at the species-distribution scale

Stability in population dynamics is an emergent property of the interaction between direct and delayed density dependence, the strengths of which vary with environmental covariates. Analysis of variation across populations in the strength of direct and delayed density dependence can reveal variation in stability properties of populations at the species level. We examined the stability properties of 22 elk/red deer populations in a two-stage analysis. First, we estimated direct and delayed density dependence applying an AR(2) model in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Second, we plotted the coefficients of direct and delayed density dependence in the Royama parameter plane. We then used a hierarchical approach to test the significance of environmental covariates of direct and delayed density dependence. Three populations exhibited highly stable and convergent dynamics with strong direct, and weak delayed, density dependence. The remaining 19 populations exhibited more complex dynamics characterized by multi-annual fluctuations. Most (15 of 19) of these exhibited a combination of weak to moderate direct and delayed density dependence. Best-fit models included environmental covariates in 17 populations (77% of the total). Of these, interannual variation in growing-season primary productivity and interannual variation in winter temperature were the most common, performing as the best-fit covariate in six and five populations, respectively. Interannual variation in growing-season primary productivity was associated with the weakest combination of direct and delayed density dependence, while interannual variation in winter temperature was associated with the strongest combination of direct and delayed density dependence. These results accord with a classic theoretical prediction that environmental variability should weaken population stability. They furthermore suggest that two forms of environmental variability, one related to forage resources and the other related to abiotic conditions, both reduce stability, but in opposing fashion: one through weakened direct density dependence and the other through strengthened delayed density dependence. Importantly, however, no single abiotic or biotic environmental factor emerged as generally predictive of the strengths of direct or delayed density dependence, nor of the stability properties emerging from their interaction. Our results emphasize the challenges inherent to ascribing primacy to drivers of such parameters at the species level and distribution scale.

Extravagance in the commons: Resource exploitation and the frontiers of ecosystem service depletion in the Amazon estuary

Estuaries hold major economic potential due their strategic location, close to seas and inland waterways, thereby supporting intense economic activity. The increasing pace of human development in coastal deltas over the past five decades has also strained local resources and produced extensive changes across both social and ecological systems. The Amazon estuary is located in the Amazon Basin, North Brazil, the largest river basin on Earth and also one of the least understood. A considerable segment of the population living in the estuary is directly dependent on the local extraction of natural resources for their livelihood. Areas sparsely inhabited may be exploited with few negative consequences for the environment. However, recent and increasing pressure on ecosystem services is maximised by a combination of factors such as governance, currency exchange rates, exports of beef and forest products. Here we present a cross methodological approach in identifying the political frontiers of forest cover change in the estuary with consequences for ecosystem services loss. We used a combination of data from earth observation satellites, ecosystem service literature, and official government statistics to produce spatially-explicit relationships linking the Green Vegetation Cover to the availability of ecosystems provided by forests in the estuary. Our results show that the continuous changes in land use/cover and in the economic state have contributed significantly to changes in key ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, climate regulation, and the availability of timber over the last thirty years.

Variability and evolution of global land surface phenology over the past three decades (1982-2012)

Monitoring land surface phenology (LSP) is important for understanding both the responses and feedbacks of ecosystems to the climate system, and for representing these accurately in terrestrial biosphere models. Moreover, by shedding light on phenological trends at a variety of scales, LSP provides the potential to fill the gap between traditional phenological (field) observations and the large-scale view of global models. In this study, we review and evaluate the variability and evolution of satellite-derived growing season length (GSL) globally and over the past three decades. We used the longest continuous record of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data available to date at global scale to derive LSP metrics consistently over all vegetated land areas and for the period 1982-2012. We tested GSL, start- and end-of-season metrics (SOS and EOS, respectively) for linear trends as well as for significant trend shifts over the study period. We evaluated trends using global environmental stratification information in place of commonly used land cover maps to avoid circular findings. Our results confirmed an average lengthening of the growing season globally during 1982-2012 - averaging 0.22-0.34 days yr(-1), but with spatially heterogeneous trends. About 13-19% of global land areas displayed significant GSL change, and over 30% of trends occurred in the boreal/alpine biome of the Northern Hemisphere, which showed diverging GSL evolution over the past three decades. Within this biome, the 'Cold and Mesic' environmental zone appeared as an LSP change hotspot. We also examined the relative contribution of SOS and EOS to the overall changes, finding that EOS trends were generally stronger and more prevalent than SOS trends. These findings constitute a step towards the identification of large-scale phenological drivers of vegetated land surfaces, necessary for improving phenological representation in terrestrial biosphere models.

Spatio-temporal variation of biotic factors underpins contemporary range dynamics of congeners

Species' ranges are complex often exhibiting multidirectional shifts over space and time. Despite the strong fingerprint of recent historical climate change on species' distributions, biotic factors such as loss of vegetative habitat and the presence of potential competitors constitute important yet often overlooked drivers of range dynamics. Furthermore, short-term changes in environmental conditions can influence the underlying processes of local extinction and local colonization that drive range shifts, yet are rarely considered at broad scales. We used dynamic state-space occupancy models to test multiple hypotheses of the relative importance of major drivers of range shifts of Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) and Blue-winged Warblers (V. cyanoptera) between 1983 and 2012 across North America: warming temperatures; habitat changes; and occurrence of congeneric species, used here as proxy for biotic interactions. Dynamic occupancies for both species were most influenced by spatial relative to temporal variation in temperature and habitat. However, temporal variation in temperature anomalies and biotic interactions remained important. The two biotic factors considered, habitat change and biotic interactions, had the largest relative effect on estimated extinction rates followed by abiotic temperature anomalies. For the Golden-winged Warbler, the predicted presence of the Blue-winged Warbler, a hypothesized competitor, most influenced extinction probabilities, contributing to evidence supporting its role in site-level species replacement. Given the overall importance of biotic factors on range-wide dynamic occupancies, their consideration alongside abiotic factors should not be overlooked. Our results suggest that warming compounds the negative effect of habitat loss emphasizing species' need for habitat to adapt to a changing climate. Notably, even closely related species exhibited individual responses to abiotic and biotic factors considered.

Codominant water control on global interannual variability and trends in land surface phenology and greenness

Identifying the relative importance of climatic and other environmental controls on the interannual variability and trends in global land surface phenology and greenness is challenging. Firstly, quantifications of land surface phenology and greenness dynamics are impaired by differences between satellite data sets and phenology detection methods. Secondly, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that can be used to diagnose controls still reveal structural limitations and contrasting sensitivities to environmental drivers. Thus, we assessed the performance of a new developed phenology module within the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) DGVM with a comprehensive ensemble of three satellite data sets of vegetation greenness and ten phenology detection methods, thereby thoroughly accounting for observational uncertainties. The improved and tested model allows us quantifying the relative importance of environmental controls on interannual variability and trends of land surface phenology and greenness at regional and global scales. We found that start of growing season interannual variability and trends are in addition to cold temperature mainly controlled by incoming radiation and water availability in temperate and boreal forests. Warming-induced prolongations of the growing season in high latitudes are dampened by a limited availability of light. For peak greenness, interannual variability and trends are dominantly controlled by water availability and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) in all regions. Stronger greening trends in boreal forests of Siberia than in North America are associated with a stronger increase in water availability from melting permafrost soils. Our findings emphasize that in addition to cold temperatures, water availability is a codominant control for start of growing season and peak greenness trends at the global scale.

Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night-time warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in the response of NDVI to changes in day- vs. night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (Tmax) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between Tmax and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone--total area 12.6×10(6) km2) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in Tmax, increases in Tmax tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (Tmin) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to diurnal temperature changes, which have not been captured by current land surface models, is important for improving the performance of next generation regional and global coupled vegetation-climate models.

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997-2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 K-1. These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long-term ESM responses.