The Influence of War and Conflict on Infectious Disease: A Rapid Review of Historical Lessons We Have Yet to Learn

Undernutrition increases the risk of unsuccessful treatment outcomes of patients with tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

While undernutrition has been identified as a common risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), its impact on treatment outcomes has yet to be investigated in high TB burden and low-income countries such as Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effect of undernutrition on treatment outcomes among patients with TB in northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from different hospitals in northwest Ethiopia, for the period from July 2017 to August 2023. A Cox proportional hazard model was performed to determine the effect of undernutrition on TB treatment outcomes, which were defined as a composite of death, treatment failure, or loss to follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 602 patients with TB were included in the analysis. Of these, 367 (60.9%) were male, and 344 (57.1%) were undernourished. Upon completion of the follow-up period, 65 (10.8%) adults with TB had unsuccessful treatment outcomes. After adjusting for potential confounders, patients with undernutrition had a two times higher risk of experiencing unsuccessful treatment outcomes compared to well-nourished patients (AHR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.2, 3.6). In addition, patients residing in rural areas (AHR: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.7, 5.4), having a history of prior TB treatment (AHR: 2.2, 95%CI: 1.1, 4.1), and the presence of diabetes comorbidity (AHR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.1, 5.2) were at higher risk of unsuccessful treatment outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Undernutrition increases the risk of unsuccessful treatment outcomes in Ethiopia. This finding suggests that nutritional support during TB treatment can improve successful treatment outcomes in high TB burden and low-income countries such as Ethiopia.

Bullet-related bacterial wound infections among injured personnel at emergency site hospitals in Bahir Dar: prevalence, antimicrobial susceptibility and associated factors

BACKGROUND

Bullet-related bacterial wound infection can be caused by high-velocity bullets and shrapnel injuries. In Ethiopia, significant injuries were reported that may cause severe wound infections, persistent systemic infections and may lead to amputation and mortality. The magnitude, antimicrobial susceptibility profiles, and factors associated with bacterial wound infections among patients with bullet-related injuries are not yet studied particularly at health facilities in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine the prevalence, bacterial profiles, antimicrobial susceptibility profiles, and factors associated with bacterial infections among patients with bullet-related injuries at referral health facilities in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A Hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among patients with bullet-related injuries at three referral health facilities in Bahir Dar from May 25 to July 27, 2022. A total of 384 patients with bullet-related injuries were included in the study. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Wound swabs were collected aseptically and cultured on Blood and MacConkey agar following bacteriological standards. Biochemical tests were performed to differentiate bacteria for positive cultivation and antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of the isolates were done on Muller Hinton agar using the Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion technique according to the 2021 Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline. The data were entered using Epi-Info version 7.3 and analyzed using SPSS version 25. Descriptive data were presented using frequency, percentages, figures, and charts. Logistic regression was carried out to identify factors associated with bacterial wound infections. P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The prevalence of bullet-related bacterial wound infection among three referral hospitals in Bahir Dar city was 54.7%. The most commonly isolated Gram-negative organism was Klebsiella spps 49 (23.3%) while among Gram-positive organism, Staphylococcus aureus 58 (27.6%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (CONS) 18 (8.6%). Contamination, hospitalization and smoking habit were significantly associated with the presence of bullet-related bacterial wound infections. Over 97% multidrug resistant (MDR) bacterial isolates were identified and of theses, E. coli, Proteus species, Citrobactor, and Staphylococcus aureus were highly drug resistant.

CONCLUSION

Increased prevalence of bullet-related bacterial wound infection was noticed in this study. S. aureus followed by Klebsiella species were most commonly isolated bacteria. High frequency of resistance to Ampicillin, Oxacillin, Cefepime, Ceftriaxone, Ceftazidime, Vancomycin, and Norfloxacin was observed. Therefore, proper handling of bullet injuries, prompt investigation of bacterial infections, monitoring of drug sensitivity patterns and antibiotic usage are critical.

The impact of conflict on infectious disease: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Conflict situations, armed or not, have been associated with emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. This review aims to identify the pathways through which infectious diseases emerge within conflict situations and to outline appropriate infectious disease preparedness and response strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review was performed representing published evidence from January 2000 to October 2023. Ovid Medline and Embase were utilised to obtain literature on infectious diseases in any conflict settings. The systematic review adhered to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis). No geographical restrictions were imposed.

FINDINGS

Our review identified 51 studies covering AIDS, Hepatitis B, Tuberculosis, Cholera, Coronavirus 2, Ebola, Poliomyelitis, Malaria, Leishmaniasis, Measles, Diphtheria, Dengue and Acute Bacterial Meningitis within conflict settings in Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Africa since October 2023. Key factors contributing to disease emergence and transmission in conflict situations included population displacement, destruction of vital infrastructure, reduction in functioning healthcare systems and healthcare personnel, disruption of disease control programmes (including reduced surveillance, diagnostic delays, and interrupted vaccinations), reduced access by healthcare providers to populations within areas of active conflict, increased population vulnerability due to limited access to healthcare services, and disruptions in the supply chain of safe water, food, and medication. To mitigate these infectious disease risks reported preparedness and response strategies included both disease-specific intervention strategies as well as broader concepts such as the education of conflict-affected populations through infectious disease awareness programmes, investing in and enabling health care in locations with displaced populations, intensifying immunisation campaigns, and ensuring political commitment and intersectoral collaborations between governments and international organisations.

CONCLUSION

Conflict plays a direct and indirect role in the transmission and propagation of infectious diseases. The findings from this review can assist decision-makers in the development of evidence-based preparedness and response strategies for the timely and effective containment of infectious disease outbreaks in conflict zones and amongst conflict-driven displaced populations.

FUNDING

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control under specific contract No. 22 ECD.13,154 within Framework contract ECDC/2019/001 Lot 1B.

Impacts of armed conflicts on tuberculosis burden and treatment outcomes: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review aimed to summarise existing literature on the impacts of armed conflicts on tuberculosis burden and treatment outcomes.

DESIGN

A systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature Plus, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Embase and medRxiv.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Three reviewers independently screened, selected eligible studies and extracted data. A narrative review was undertaken to summarise the findings qualitatively.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included in this review, reporting on tuberculosis incidence rates, prevalence and treatment outcomes, including mortality. Overall, the impact of armed conflicts on case notifications was variable. Six studies reported overall increases in tuberculosis case notifications following the onset of conflicts, while three studies reported overall decreases in tuberculosis case notifications. Factors, including limited access to healthcare services, challenges in surveillance and laboratory confirmation, the destruction of health systems and incapacitating the healthcare workforce, contributed to a decrease in the number of notified cases. The higher tuberculosis notification in some of the studies could be attributed to the disruption of tuberculosis prevention and control programmes as well as increased socioeconomic deprivation, including malnutrition, mass migration, poor living conditions and overcrowding that are worsened during conflicts. Armed conflicts without effective interventions were associated with worse tuberculosis treatment outcomes, including lower proportions of people with treatment success and higher proportions of people with loss to follow-up, mortality and treatment failure. However, implementing various interventions in conflict settings (such as establishing a National Tuberculosis Control Programme) led to higher tuberculosis notification rates and treatment success.

CONCLUSION

The impact of armed conflicts on tuberculosis notification is complex and is influenced by multiple factors. The findings of this review underscore the importance of concerted efforts to control tuberculosis in conflict settings using available resources.

Contagion to unrest: Investigating the link between disease and civil unrest in Africa

Scholars, policymakers, and citizens alike remain invested in the impact of infectious diseases worldwide. Studies have found that emerging diseases and disease outbreaks burden global economies and public health goals. This article explores the potential link between measles outbreaks and various forms of civil unrest, such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, and other anti-government violence, in four central African countries from 1996 to 2005. Using a difference-in-differences model, we examine whether disease outbreaks have a discernible impact on the prevalence of civil unrest. While our findings indicate that the relationship between disease and civil unrest is not as strong as previously suggested, we identify a notable trend that warrants further investigation. These results have significant implications for health and policy officials in understanding the complex interplay between state fragility, civil unrest, and the spread of disease.

Impact of wars and natural disasters on emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases

Emerging Infectious Diseases (EIDs) and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases (REIDs) constitute significant health problems and are becoming of major importance. Up to 75% of EIDs and REIDs have zoonotic origin. Several factors such as the destruction of natural habitats leading humans and animals to live in close proximity, ecological changes due to natural disasters, population migration resulting from war or conflict, interruption or decrease in disease prevention programs, and insufficient vector control applications and sanitation are involved in disease emergence and distribution. War and natural disasters have a great impact on the emergence/re-emergence of diseases in the population. According to a World Bank estimation, two billion people are living in poverty and fragility situations. Wars destroy health systems and infrastructure, curtail existing disease control programs, and cause population movement leading to an increase in exposure to health risks and favor the emergence of infectious diseases. A total of 432 catastrophic cases associated with natural disasters were recorded globally in 2021. Natural disasters increase the risk of EID and REID outbreaks by damaging infrastructure and leading to displacement of populations. A Generic National Action Plan covering risk assessment, mechanism for action, determination of roles and responsibilities of each sector, the establishment of a coordination mechanism, etc. should be developed.

Utilization of insecticide-treated nets and associated factors among childbearing women in Northern Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Studies have explored the correlates of insecticide-treated nets in Nigeria. The few studies that focused on Northern Nigeria mostly examined individual correlates, but largely ignored the community correlates. Also, the persistence of armed insurgencies in the region calls for more research attention. This study examines the utilization and the associated individual and community factors of insecticide-treated nets in Northern Nigeria.

METHODS

The study adopted a cross-sectional design. Data were extracted from the 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey (NMIS). A weighted sample size of 6873 women was analysed. The outcome variable was the utilization of insecticide-treated nets. The explanatory variables selected at the individual/household level were maternal age, maternal education, parity, religion, sex of head of household, household wealth, and household size. The variables selected at the community level were the type of place of residence, geo-political zone of residence, the proportion of children under five who slept under a bed net, the proportion of women aged 15-49 who heard malaria media messages, and the community literacy level. Two variables, namely, the number of mosquito bed nets in the household, and the number of rooms used for sleeping were included for statistical control. Three multilevel mixed-effect regression models were fitted.

RESULTS

The majority of childbearing women (71.8%) utilized insecticide-treated nets. Parity and household size were the significant individual/household characteristics associated with the utilization of insecticide-treated nets. The proportion of under-five children in the community who slept under mosquito bed nets, and the geopolitical zone of residence were significant community correlates of the use of insecticide-treated nets. In addition, the number of rooms for sleeping, and the number of mosquito bed nets in the households were significantly associated with the utilization of insecticide-treated nets.

CONCLUSION

Parity, household size, number of sleeping rooms, number of treated bed nets, geo-political zone of residence, and proportion of under-five children sleeping under bed nets are important associated factors of the utilization of insecticide-treated nets in Northern Nigeria. Existing malaria preventive initiatives should be strengthened to target these characteristics.

Maleficent Comrades: War in Ukraine and COVID-19

Infectious diseases and war are maleficent comrades. This reality applies equally well to the war in Ukraine and the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Europe is facing a huge refugee crisis and potentially the conflict could worsen the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, 2 major countries of concern are Poland, which has taken the majority of refugees, and Moldova, which has taken a very large number of refugees on a per capita basis. However, the concern extends to the rest of Europe because of the mobility of refugees beyond the first country they enter. Vaccinating, infection control, and boosting refugees should be a priority. However, complete prevention of COVID-19 is very complex because of other issues related to the success of prevention.

Syndromic surveillance of respiratory infections during protracted conflict: experiences from northern Syria 2016-2021

OBJECTIVE

Northern Syria faces a large burden of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). This study aimed to investigate the trends of Early Warning and Response Network (EWARN) reported ILI and SARI in northern Syria between 2016 and 2021 and the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We extracted weekly EWARN data on ILI/ SARI and aggregated cases and consultations into 4-week intervals to calculate case positivity. We conducted a seasonal-trend decomposition to assess case trends in the presence of seasonal fluctuations.

RESULTS

It was observed that 4-week aggregates of ILI cases (n = 5,942,012), SARI cases (n = 114,939), ILI case positivity, and SARI case positivity exhibited seasonal fluctuations with peaks in the winter months. ILI and SARI cases in individuals aged ≥5 years surpassed those in individuals aged <5 years in late 2019. ILI cases clustered primarily in Aleppo and Idlib, whereas SARI cases clustered in Aleppo, Idlib, Deir Ezzor, and Hassakeh. SARI cases increased sharply in 2021, corresponding with a severe SARS-CoV-2 wave, compared with the steady increase in ILI cases over time.

CONCLUSION

Respiratory infections cause widespread morbidity and mortality throughout northern Syria, particularly with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Strengthened surveillance and access to testing and treatment are critical to manage outbreaks among conflict-affected populations.

A Historical Review of Military Medical Strategies for Fighting Infectious Diseases: From Battlefields to Global Health

The environmental conditions generated by war and characterized by poverty, undernutrition, stress, difficult access to safe water and food as well as lack of environmental and personal hygiene favor the spread of many infectious diseases. Epidemic typhus, plague, malaria, cholera, typhoid fever, hepatitis, tetanus, and smallpox have nearly constantly accompanied wars, frequently deeply conditioning the outcome of battles/wars more than weapons and military strategy. At the end of the nineteenth century, with the birth of bacteriology, military medical researchers in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France were active in discovering the etiological agents of some diseases and in developing preventive vaccines. Emil von Behring, Ronald Ross and Charles Laveran, who were or served as military physicians, won the first, the second, and the seventh Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine for discovering passive anti-diphtheria/tetanus immunotherapy and for identifying mosquito Anopheline as a malaria vector and plasmodium as its etiological agent, respectively. Meanwhile, Major Walter Reed in the United States of America discovered the mosquito vector of yellow fever, thus paving the way for its prevention by vector control. In this work, the military relevance of some vaccine-preventable and non-vaccine-preventable infectious diseases, as well as of biological weapons, and the military contributions to their control will be described. Currently, the civil-military medical collaboration is getting closer and becoming interdependent, from research and development for the prevention of infectious diseases to disasters and emergencies management, as recently demonstrated in Ebola and Zika outbreaks and the COVID-19 pandemic, even with the high biocontainment aeromedical evacuation, in a sort of global health diplomacy.

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Prevalence and Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection in Libya

The interrelationships between HIV/AIDS and armed conflict are a complex phenomenon, and studies are rarely devoted to this area of research. Libya is the second-largest country in Africa that has been evoked with war since the NATO intervention in 2011. The country has also experienced one of the largest HIV outbreaks associated with the Bulgarian nurse's saga. The effect of the armed conflict on the dynamic spread of HIV is not yet well-known. The objectives of this study were to determine the impact of armed conflict on the epidemiological situation of HIV infection in Libya and to analyze the transmission dynamics of HIV strains during the conflict. We investigated the movement of people with HIV during the Libyan armed conflict, analyzed the HIV subtypes reported from 2011 to 2020, and followed up the infected cases all over the country. The patterns of HIV spread within the Libyan regions were traced, and the risk factors were determined during the conflict period. A total of 4,539 patients with HIV/AIDS were studied from the four regions during the Libyan conflict. Our data analysis indicated that Benghazi, the biggest city in the Eastern region, was the significant exporter of the virus to the rest of the country. The viral dissemination changes were observed within the country, particularly after 2015. A major virus flows from the Eastern region during the armed conflict associated with internally displaced people. This resulted in the dissemination of new HIV strains and accumulations of HIV cases in western and middle regions. Although, there were no significant changes in the national prevalence of HIV/AIDS. Our data highlight the factors that complicated the spread and dissemination of HIV during the armed conflict, which provide a better understanding of the interaction between them. This could be used to plan for effective preventive measures in tackling the spread of HIV in conflict and post-conflict settings.

Differences in Ethical Viewpoints among Civilian–Military Populations: A Survey among Practitioners in Two European Countries, Based on a Systematic Literature Review

Civilian–military collaboration in humanitarian crises has been encouraged globally; however, little is known about their diverse ethical viewpoints towards challenging and critical situations, which may cause difficulties in the partnership, and influence the outcomes of their mutual activities. The aim of this study was to identify the diversity of viewpoints and ethical decision-making during exceptional circumstances among civilian and military populations from two different countries, each with diverse background and healthcare organization structures. Possible scenarios, based on a systematic review of the literature, were introduced to Swedish and Polish civilian and military healthcare providers. Variations in the participants’ viewpoints and approaches to ethical decision-making were analyzed according to their characteristics, organizational belonging, and nationality. There were differences between both populations but also within the military and civilian groups, respectively. One significant factor influencing ethical viewpoints was participants’ nationality. Differences in ethical viewpoints between multiagency organizations should be considered in planning and implementation of future transdisciplinary and international collaboration in disaster and emergency management. Further studies and renewed educational initiatives are necessary to validate these differences and to navigate civilian–military as well as other multinational partnerships.