Ecology of West Nile virus in North America

Suitable Mouse Model to Study Dynamics of West Nile Virus Infection in Culex quinquefasciatus Mosquitoes

West Nile Virus (WNV) poses a significant global public health threat as a mosquito-borne pathogen. While laboratory mouse models have historically played a crucial role in understanding virus biology, recent research has focused on utilizing immunocompromised models to study arboviruses like dengue and Zika viruses, particularly their interactions with Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. However, there has been a shortage of suitable mouse models for investigating WNV and St. Louis encephalitis virus interactions with their primary vectors, Culex spp. mosquitoes. Here, we establish the AG129 mouse (IFN α/β/γ R-/-) as an effective vertebrate model for examining mosquito-WNV interactions. Following intraperitoneal injection, AG129 mice exhibited transient viremia lasting several days, peaking on the second or third day post-infection, which is sufficient to infect Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes during a blood meal. We also observed WNV replication in the midgut and dissemination to other tissues, including the fat body, in infected mosquitoes. Notably, infectious virions were present in the saliva of a viremic AG129 mouse 16 days post-exposure, indicating successful transmission capacity. These findings highlight the utility of AG129 mice for studying vector competence and WNV-mosquito interactions.

Arthropod-Borne Viruses of Human and Animal Importance: Overwintering in Temperate Regions of Europe during an Era of Climate Change

The past three decades have seen an increasing number of emerging arthropod-borne viruses in temperate regions This process is ongoing, driven by human activities such as inter-continental travel, combined with the parallel emergence of invasive arthropods and an underlying change in climate that can increase the risk of virus transmission and persistence. In addition, natural events such as bird migration can introduce viruses to new regions. Despite the apparent regularity of virus emergence, arthropod-borne viruses circulating in temperate regions face the challenge of the late autumn and winter months where the arthropod vector is inactive. Viruses therefore need mechanisms to overwinter or they will fail to establish in temperate zones. Prolonged survival of arthropod-borne viruses within the environment, outside of both vertebrate host and arthropod vector, is not thought to occur and therefore is unlikely to contribute to overwintering in temperate zones. One potential mechanism is continued infection of a vertebrate host. However, infection is generally acute, with the host either dying or producing an effective immune response that rapidly clears the virus. There are few exceptions to this, although prolonged infection associated with orbiviruses such as bluetongue virus occurs in certain mammals, and viraemic vertebrate hosts therefore can, in certain circumstances, provide a route for long-term viral persistence in the absence of active vectors. Alternatively, a virus can persist in the arthropod vector as a mechanism for overwintering. However, this is entirely dependent on the ecology of the vector itself and can be influenced by changes in the climate during the winter months. This review considers the mechanisms for virus overwintering in several key arthropod vectors in temperate areas. We also consider how this will be influenced in a warming climate.

Long-term trends and spatial patterns of West Nile Virus emergence in California, 2004-2021

AIMS

West Nile Virus (WNV) has remained a persistent source of vector-borne disease risk in California since first being identified in the state in 2003. The geographic distribution of WNV activity is relatively widespread, but varies considerably across different regions within the state. Spatial variation in human WNV infection depends upon social-ecological factors that influence mosquito populations and virus transmission dynamics. Measuring changes in spatial patterns over time is necessary for uncovering the underlying regional drivers of disease risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we utilized statewide surveillance data to quantify temporal changes and spatial patterns of WNV activity in California. We obtained annual WNV mosquito surveillance data from 2004 through 2021 from the California Arbovirus Surveillance Program. Geographic coordinates for mosquito pools were analysed using a suite of spatial statistics to identify and classify patterns in WNV activity over time.

CONCLUSIONS

We detected clear patterns of non-random WNV risk during the study period, including emerging hot spots in the Central Valley and non-random periods of oscillating WNV risk in Southern and Northern California subregions. Our findings offer new insights into 18 years of spatio-temporal variation in WNV activity across California, which may be used for targeted surveillance efforts and public health interventions.

The Arbovirus Mapping and Prediction (ArboMAP) system for West Nile virus forecasting

Objectives

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Predicting the location and timing of outbreaks would allow targeting of disease prevention and mosquito control activities. Our objective was to develop software (ArboMAP) for routine WNV forecasting using public health surveillance data and meteorological observations.

Materials and Methods

ArboMAP was implemented using an R markdown script for data processing, modeling, and report generation. A Google Earth Engine application was developed to summarize and download weather data. Generalized additive models were used to make county-level predictions of WNV cases.

Results

ArboMAP minimized the number of manual steps required to make weekly forecasts, generated information that was useful for decision-makers, and has been tested and implemented in multiple public health institutions.

Discussion and Conclusion

Routine prediction of mosquito-borne disease risk is feasible and can be implemented by public health departments using ArboMAP.

Single-Dose Immunogenic DNA Vaccines Coding for Live-Attenuated Alpha- and Flaviviruses

Single-dose, immunogenic DNA (iDNA) vaccines coding for whole live-attenuated viruses are reviewed. This platform, sometimes called immunization DNA, has been used for vaccine development for flavi- and alphaviruses. An iDNA vaccine uses plasmid DNA to launch live-attenuated virus vaccines in vitro or in vivo. When iDNA is injected into mammalian cells in vitro or in vivo, the RNA genome of an attenuated virus is transcribed, which starts replication of a defined, live-attenuated vaccine virus in cell culture or the cells of a vaccine recipient. In the latter case, an immune response to the live virus vaccine is elicited, which protects against the pathogenic virus. Unlike other nucleic acid vaccines, such as mRNA and standard DNA vaccines, iDNA vaccines elicit protection with a single dose, thus providing major improvement to epidemic preparedness. Still, iDNA vaccines retain the advantages of other nucleic acid vaccines. In summary, the iDNA platform combines the advantages of reverse genetics and DNA immunization with the high immunogenicity of live-attenuated vaccines, resulting in enhanced safety and immunogenicity. This vaccine platform has expanded the field of genetic DNA and RNA vaccines with a novel type of immunogenic DNA vaccines that encode entire live-attenuated viruses.

Green cities and vector-borne diseases: emerging concerns and opportunities

Aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, nature-based solutions such as urban greening e.g. public gardens, urban forests, parks and street trees, which aim to protect, sustainably manage or restore an ecosystem, have emerged as a promising tool for improving the health and well-being of an ever-increasing urban population. While urban greening efforts have undeniable benefits for human health and the biological communities inhabiting these green zones, disease vector populations may also be affected, possibly promoting greater pathogen transmission and the emergence of infectious diseases such as dengue, West Nile fever, malaria, leishmaniosis and tick-borne diseases. Evidence for the impact of urban green areas on vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission is scarce. Furthermore, because of vast disparities between cities, variation in green landscapes and differing scales of observation, findings are often contradictory; this calls for careful assessment of how urban greening affects VBD risk. Improved understanding of the effect of urban greening on VBDs would support planning, monitoring and management of green spaces in cities to sustainably mitigate VBD risks for surrounding urban populations.

Two-step light gradient boosted model to identify human west nile virus infection risk factor in Chicago

West Nile virus (WNV), a flavivirus transmitted by mosquito bites, causes primarily mild symptoms but can also be fatal. Therefore, predicting and controlling the spread of West Nile virus is essential for public health in endemic areas. We hypothesized that socioeconomic factors may influence human risk from WNV. We analyzed a list of weather, land use, mosquito surveillance, and socioeconomic variables for predicting WNV cases in 1-km hexagonal grids across the Chicago metropolitan area. We used a two-stage lightGBM approach to perform the analysis and found that hexagons with incomes above and below the median are influenced by the same top characteristics. We found that weather factors and mosquito infection rates were the strongest common factors. Land use and socioeconomic variables had relatively small contributions in predicting WNV cases. The Light GBM handles unbalanced data sets well and provides meaningful predictions of the risk of epidemic disease outbreaks.

The utility of a Bayesian predictive model to forecast neuroinvasive West Nile virus disease in the United States of America, 2022

Arboviruses (arthropod-borne-viruses) are an emerging global health threat that are rapidly spreading as climate change, international business transport, and landscape fragmentation impact local ecologies. Since its initial detection in 1999, West Nile virus has shifted from being a novel to an established arbovirus in the United States of America. Subsequently, more than 25,000 cases of West Nile neuro-invasive disease have been diagnosed, cementing West Nile virus as an arbovirus of public health importance. Given its novelty in the United States of America, high-risk ecologies are largely underdefined making targeted population-level public health interventions challenging. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET neuroinvasive West Nile virus data from 2000-2021, this study aimed to predict neuroinvasive West Nile virus human cases at the county level for the contiguous USA using a spatio-temporal Bayesian negative binomial regression model. The model includes environmental, climatic, and demographic factors, as well as the distribution of host species. An integrated nested Laplace approximation approach was used to fit our model. To assess model prediction accuracy, annual counts were withheld, forecasted, and compared to observed values. The validated models were then fit to the entire dataset for 2022 predictions. This proof-of-concept mathematical, geospatial modelling approach has proven utility for national health agencies seeking to allocate funding and other resources for local vector control agencies tackling West Nile virus and other notifiable arboviral agents.

Ecological Niche and Positive Clusters of Two West Nile Virus Vectors in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen associated with uncommon but severe neurological complications in humans, especially among the elderly and immune-compromised. In Northeastern North America, the Culex pipiens/restuans complex and Aedes vexans are the two principal vector mosquito species/species groups of WNV. Using a 10-year surveillance dataset of WNV vector captures at 118 sites across an area of 40,000 km2 in Eastern Ontario, Canada, the ecological niches of Cx. pipiens/restuans and Aedes vexans were modeled by random forest analysis. Spatiotemporal clusters of WNV-positive mosquito pools were identified using Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic. The study region encompasses land cover types and climate representative of highly populated Southeastern Canada. We found highest vector habitat suitability in the eastern half of the study area, where temperatures are generally warmer (variable importance > 0.40) and residential and agricultural cropland cover is more prominent (variable importance > 0.25). We found spatiotemporal clusters of high WNV infection rates around the city of Ottawa in both mosquito vector species. These results support the previous literature in the same region and elsewhere suggesting areas surrounding highly populated areas are also high-risk areas for vector-borne zoonoses such as the WNV.

Mapping the abundance of endemic mosquito-borne diseases vectors in southern Quebec

BACKGROUND

Climate change is increasing the dispersion of mosquitoes and the spread of viruses of which some mosquitoes are the main vectors. In Quebec, the surveillance and management of endemic mosquito-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus or Eastern equine encephalitis, could be improved by mapping the areas of risk supporting vector populations. However, there is currently no active tool tailored to Quebec that can predict mosquito population abundances, and we propose, with this work, to help fill this gap.

METHODS

Four species of mosquitos were studied in this project for the period from 2003 to 2016 for the southern part of the province of Quebec: Aedes vexans (VEX), Coquillettidia perturbans (CQP), Culex pipiens-restuans group (CPR) and Ochlerotatus stimulans group (SMG) species. We used a negative binomial regression approach, including a spatial component, to model the abundances of each species or species group as a function of meteorological and land-cover variables. We tested several sets of variables combination, regional and local scale variables for landcover and different lag period for the day of capture for weather variables, to finally select one best model for each species.

RESULTS

Models selected showed the importance of the spatial component, independently of the environmental variables, at the larger spatial scale. In these models, the most important land-cover predictors that favored CQP and VEX were 'forest', and 'agriculture' (for VEX only). Land-cover 'urban' had negative impact on SMG and CQP. The weather conditions on the trapping day and previous weather conditions summarized over 30 or 90 days were preferred over a shorter period of seven days, suggesting current and long-term previous weather conditions effects on mosquito abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

The strength of the spatial component highlights the difficulties in modelling the abundance of mosquito species and the model selection shows the importance of selecting the right environmental predictors, especially when choosing the temporal and spatial scale of these variables. Climate and landscape variables were important for each species or species group, suggesting it is possible to consider their use in predicting long-term spatial variationsin the abundance of mosquitoes potentially harmful to public health in southern Quebec.

Epidemic versus endemic West Nile virus dead bird surveillance in California: Changes in sensitivity and focus

Since 2003, the California West Nile virus (WNV) dead bird surveillance program (DBSP) has monitored publicly reported dead birds for WNV surveillance and response. In the current paper, we compared DBSP data from early epidemic years (2004-2006) with recent endemic years (2018-2020), with a focus on specimen collection criteria, county report incidence, bird species selection, WNV prevalence in dead birds, and utility of the DBSP as an early environmental indicator of WNV. Although fewer agencies collected dead birds in recent years, most vector control agencies with consistent WNV activity continued to use dead birds as a surveillance tool, with streamlined operations enhancing efficiency. The number of dead bird reports was approximately ten times greater during 2004-2006 compared to 2018-2020, with reports from the Central Valley and portions of Southern California decreasing substantially in recent years; reports from the San Francisco Bay Area decreased less dramatically. Seven of ten counties with high numbers of dead bird reports were also high human WNV case burden areas. Dead corvid, sparrow, and quail reports decreased the most compared to other bird species reports. West Nile virus positive dead birds were the most frequent first indicators of WNV activity by county in 2004-2006, followed by positive mosquitoes; in contrast, during 2018-2020 mosquitoes were the most frequent first indicators followed by dead birds, and initial environmental WNV detections occurred later in the season during 2018-2020. Evidence for WNV impacts on avian populations and susceptibility are discussed. Although patterns of dead bird reports and WNV prevalence in tested dead birds have changed, dead birds have endured as a useful element within our multi-faceted WNV surveillance program.

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans.

METHODS

We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 = 0.61 .

RESULTS

Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels < 23.3 mm / month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables.

DISCUSSION

We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986.

Host selection and forage ratio in West Nile virus-transmitting Culex mosquitoes: Challenges and knowledge gaps

BACKGROUND

To date, no specific therapy or vaccination is available for West Nile virus (WNV) infections in humans; preventive strategies represent the only possibility to control transmission. To focus these strategies, detailed knowledge of the virus dynamics is of paramount importance. However, several aspects of WNV transmission are still unclear, especially regarding the role of potential vertebrate host species. Whereas mosquitoes' intrinsic characteristics cause them to favour certain hosts (host preference), absolute selection is impossible in natural settings. Conversely, the selection carried out among available hosts and influenced from hosts' availability and other ecological/environmental factors is defined as host selection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In July 2022, we searched PubMed database for original articles exploring host selection among WNV-transmitting Culex mosquitoes, the main WNV vector. We considered only original field studies estimating and reporting forage ratio. This index results from the ratio between the proportion of blood meals taken by mosquitoes on potential host species and the hosts' relative abundance. From the originally retrieved 585 articles, 9 matched the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. All but one of the included studies were conducted in the Americas, six in the United States, and one each in Mexico and Colombia. The remaining study was conducted in Italy. American Robin, Northern Cardinal, and House Finch were the most significantly preferred birds in the Americas, Common Blackbird in Italy.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Although ornithophilic, all observed WNV-transmitting mosquitoes presented opportunistic feeding behaviour. All the observed species showed potential to act as bridges for zoonotic diseases, feeding also on humans. All the observed mosquitoes presented host selection patterns and did not feed on hosts as expected by chance alone. The articles observe different species of mosquitoes in different environments. In addition, the way the relative host abundance was determined differed. Finally, this review is not systematic. Therefore, the translation of our results to different settings should be conducted cautiously.

Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV), a global arbovirus, is the most prevalent mosquito-transmitted infection in the United States. Forecasts of WNV risk during the upcoming transmission season could provide the basis for targeted mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. We developed the Arbovirus Mapping and Prediction (ArboMAP) WNV forecasting system and used it in South Dakota from 2016 to 2019. This study reports a post hoc forecast validation and model comparison.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to validate historical predictions of WNV cases with independent data that were not used for model calibration. We tested the hypothesis that predictive models based on mosquito surveillance data combined with meteorological variables were more accurate than models based on mosquito or meteorological data alone.

METHODS

The ArboMAP system incorporated models that predicted the weekly probability of observing one or more human WNV cases in each county. We compared alternative models with different predictors including a) a baseline model based only on historical WNV cases, b) mosquito models based on seasonal patterns of infection rates, c) environmental models based on lagged meteorological variables, including temperature and vapor pressure deficit, d) combined models with mosquito infection rates and lagged meteorological variables, and e) ensembles of two or more combined models. During the WNV season, models were calibrated using data from previous years and weekly predictions were made using data from the current year. Forecasts were compared with observed cases to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and other metrics of spatial and temporal prediction error.

RESULTS

Mosquito and environmental models outperformed the baseline model that included county-level averages and seasonal trends of WNV cases. Combined models were more accurate than models based only on meteorological or mosquito infection variables. The most accurate model was a simple ensemble mean of the two best combined models. Forecast accuracy increased rapidly from early June through early July and was stable thereafter, with a maximum AUC of 0.85. The model predictions captured the seasonal pattern of WNV as well as year-to-year variation in case numbers and the geographic pattern of cases.

DISCUSSION

The predictions reached maximum accuracy early enough in the WNV season to allow public health responses before the peak of human cases in August. This early warning is necessary because other indicators of WNV risk, including early reports of human cases and mosquito abundance, are poor predictors of case numbers later in the season. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10287.

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Zoonotic Arbovirus Transmission in Northeastern Florida Using Sentinel Chicken Surveillance and Earth Observation Data

The irregular timing and spatial variation in the zoonotic arbovirus spillover from vertebrate hosts to humans and livestock present challenges to predicting spillover occurrence over time and across broader geographic areas, compromising effective prevention and control strategies. The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of the landscape composition and configuration and dynamic weather events on the 2018 spatiotemporal distribution of eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) (Togaviridae, Alphavirus) and West Nile virus (WNV) (Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) sentinel chicken seroconversion in northeastern Florida. We used a modeling framework that explicitly accounts for joint spatial and temporal effects and incorporates key EO (Earth Observation) information on the climate and landscape in order to more accurately quantify the environmental effects on the transmission to sentinel chickens. We investigated the environmental effects using Bernoulli generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMMs), including a site-level random effect, and then added spatial random effects and spatiotemporal random effects in subsequent runs. The models were executed using an integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach in R-INLA. The GLMMs that included a spatiotemporal random effect performed better relative to models that included only spatial random effects and also performed better than non-spatial models. The results indicated a strong spatiotemporal structure in the seroconversion for both viruses, but EEEV exhibited a more punctuated and compact structure at the beginning of the sampling season, while WNV exhibited a more gradual and diffuse structure across the study area toward the end of the sampling season. The percentage of cypress–tupelo wetland land cover within 3500 m of coop sites and the edge density of the forest land cover within 500 m had a strong positive effect on the EEEV seroconversion, while the best fitting model for WNV was the intercept-only model with spatiotemporal random effects. The lagged climatic variables included in our study did not have a strong effect on the seroconversion for either virus when accounting for temporal autocorrelation, demonstrating the utility of capturing this structure to avoid type I errors. The predictive accuracy for out-of-sample data for the EEEV seroconversion demonstrates the potential to develop a framework that incorporates temporal dynamics in order to better predict arbovirus transmission.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the California mosquito-borne virus surveillance & response plan, 2009–2018

Local vector control and public health agencies in California use the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan to monitor and evaluate West Nile virus (WNV) activity and guide responses to reduce the burden of WNV disease. All available data from environmental surveillance, such as the abundance and WNV infection rates in Culex tarsalis and the Culex pipiens complex mosquitoes, the numbers of dead birds, seroconversions in sentinel chickens, and ambient air temperatures, are fed into a formula to estimate the risk level and associated risk of human infections. In many other areas of the US, the vector index, based only on vector mosquito abundance and infection rates, is used by vector control programs to estimate the risk of human WNV transmission. We built models to determine the association between risk level and the number of reported symptomatic human disease cases with onset in the following three weeks to identify the essential components of the risk level and to compare California’s risk estimates to vector index. Risk level calculations based on Cx. tarsalis and Cx. pipiens complex levels were significantly associated with increased human risk, particularly when accounting for vector control area and population, and were better predictors than using vector index. Including all potential environmental components created an effective tool to estimate the risk of WNV transmission to humans in California.

A Comparison of Hay and Fish Emulsion-Infused Water as Oviposition Attractants for the CDC Gravid Trap

Multiple oviposition attractants are used for Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquito surveillance in the CDC Gravid Trap, including hay and fish emulsion-infused water. Despite the use of both in the United States, no research has compared their attractiveness. We conducted trapping throughout Louisiana to assess the attractiveness of hay and fish emulsion-infused water in various habitat types and climates. Our results indicate that fish emulsion-infused water attracts more mosquitoes overall, more Culex quinquefasciatus (Say, 1823), and a wider diversity of mosquitoes than hay-infused water. This trend was maintained, regardless of habitat type or climate.

Socio-ecological drivers of multiple zoonotic hazards in highly urbanized cities

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of pathogen spillover from wildlife to human hosts, particularly in densely populated urban centers. Prevention of future zoonotic disease is contingent on informed surveillance for known and novel threats across diverse human-wildlife interfaces. Cities are a key venue for potential spillover events because of the presence of zoonotic pathogens transmitted by hosts and vectors living in close proximity to dense human settlements. Effectively identifying and managing zoonotic hazards requires understanding the socio-ecological processes driving hazard distribution and pathogen prevalence in dynamic and heterogeneous urban landscapes. Despite increasing awareness of the human health impacts of zoonotic hazards, the integration of an eco-epidemiological perspective into public health management plans remains limited. Here we discuss how landscape patterns, abiotic conditions, and biotic interactions influence zoonotic hazards across highly urbanized cities (HUCs) in temperate climates to promote their efficient and effective management by a multi-sectoral coalition of public health stakeholders. We describe how to interpret both direct and indirect ecological processes, incorporate spatial scale, and evaluate networks of connectivity specific to different zoonotic hazards to promote biologically-informed and targeted decision-making. Using New York City, USA as a case study, we identify major zoonotic threats, apply knowledge of relevant ecological factors, and highlight opportunities and challenges for research and intervention. We aim to broaden the toolbox of urban public health stakeholders by providing ecologically-informed, practical guidance for the evaluation and management of zoonotic hazards.

Serological Evidence of West Nile Virus Infection Among Humans, Horses, and Pigeons in Saudi Arabia

Purpose

This study was designed to investigate the seroprevalence of WNV antibodies in humans, horses, and pigeons in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.

Materials and Methods

Blood samples were collected from 323 humans, 147 horses, and 282 pigeons from two regions, Al-Ahsa and Al-Qatif, in East of Saudi Arabia. Serum samples were tested for anti-WNV antibodies by ELISA.

Results

The percentage of anti-WNV antibodies in the human population was found to be 9.6% (3.1% in females and 6.5% in males). This percentage was much higher in horses, as 71.4% (105/147) of the horses had anti-WNV antibodies. However, no statistically significant difference in the anti-WNV antibody prevalence was found among horses from the two regions, Al-Ahsa (73.9%) and Al-Qatif (70.3%) (P value 0.665, 95% CI 0.37–1.82). No significant difference was found in the frequency of WNV antibodies among different age groups from humans or horses. Noticeably, 72.7% of the horses had detectable anti-WNV antibodies by the age of 1 year. In total, 53.19% (150/282) of the pigeons in the study had anti-WNV antibodies.

Conclusion

Our study provided the first evidence for anti-WNV antibody detection in humans and pigeons. This study further ascertained the high seroprevalence of the virus in horses as reported previously by Hemida et al 2019. Overall data indicates that WNV is endemic in Saudi Arabia. These findings suggest that more attention should be given to the diagnosis and reporting of WNV infections in human and animals and monitoring of virus circulation in the environment.

Vector Specificity of Arbovirus Transmission

More than 25% of human infectious diseases are vector-borne diseases (VBDs). These diseases, caused by pathogens shared between animals and humans, are a growing threat to global health with more than 2.5 million annual deaths. Mosquitoes and ticks are the main vectors of arboviruses including flaviviruses, which greatly affect humans. However, all tick or mosquito species are not able to transmit all viruses, suggesting important molecular mechanisms regulating viral infection, dissemination, and transmission by vectors. Despite the large distribution of arthropods (mosquitoes and ticks) and arboviruses, only a few pairings of arthropods (family, genus, and population) and viruses (family, genus, and genotype) successfully transmit. Here, we review the factors that might limit pathogen transmission: internal (vector genetics, immune responses, microbiome including insect-specific viruses, and coinfections) and external, either biotic (adult and larvae nutrition) or abiotic (temperature, chemicals, and altitude). This review will demonstrate the dynamic nature and complexity of virus–vector interactions to help in designing appropriate practices in surveillance and prevention to reduce VBD threats.

Two Interferon-Stimulated Response Elements Cooperatively Regulate Interferon-Stimulated Gene Expression in West Nile Virus-Infected IFNAR-/- Mouse Embryo Fibroblasts

We previously identified a subset of interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs) upregulated by West Nile virus (WNV) infection in wild-type mouse embryo fibroblasts (MEFs) after viral proteins had inhibited type I interferon (IFN)-mediated JAK-STAT signaling and also in WNV-infected RIG-I^-/-, MDA5^-/-, STAT1^-/-, STAT2^-/-, IFNAR^-/-, IRF3^-/-, IRF7^-/-, and IRF3/7^-/- MEFs. In this study, ISG upregulation by WNV infection in IFNAR^-/- MEFs was confirmed by transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq). ISG upregulation by WNV infection was inhibited in RIG-I/MDA5^-/- MEFs. ISGs were upregulated in IRF1^-/- and IRF5^-/- MEFs but only minimally upregulated in IRF3/5/7^-/- MEFs, suggesting redundant IRF involvement. We previously showed that a single proximal interferon-stimulated response element (ISRE) in the Oas1a and Oas1b promoters bound the ISGF3 complex after type I IFN treatment. In this study, we used wild-type and mutant promoter luciferase reporter constructs to identify critical regions in the Oas1b and Ifit1 promoters for gene activation in infected IFNAR^-/- MEFs. Two ISREs were required in both promoters. Mutation of these ISREs in an Ifit1 promoter DNA probe reduced in vitro complex formation with infected nuclear extracts. An NF-κB inhibitor decreased Ifit1 promoter activity in cells and in vitro complex formation. IRF3 and p50 promoter binding was detected by chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) for upregulated ISGs with two proximal ISREs. The data indicate that ISREs function cooperatively to upregulate the expression of some ISGs when type I IFN signaling is absent, with the binding complex consisting of IRF3, IRF5, and/or IRF7 and an NF-κB component(s) as well as other, as-yet-unknown factors. IMPORTANCE Type I IFN signaling in mammalian cells induces formation of the ISGF3 transcription factor complex, which binds to interferon stimulated response elements (ISREs) in the promoters of interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs) in the cell nucleus. Flavivirus proteins counteract type I IFN signaling by preventing either the formation or nuclear localization of ISGF3. A subset of ISRE-regulated ISGs was still induced in West Nile virus (WNV)-infected mouse embryo fibroblasts (MEFs), indicating that cells have an alternative mechanism for activating these ISGs. In this study, cellular components involved in this ISG upregulation mechanism were identified using gene knockout MEFs and ChIP, and critical promoter regions for gene activation were mapped using reporter assays. The data indicate a cooperative function between two ISREs and required binding of IRF3, IRF5, and/or IRF7 and an NF-κB component(s). Moreover, type I IFN signaling-independent ISG activation requires different additional promoter activation regions than type I IFN-dependent activation.

Experimental Evolution of West Nile Virus at Higher Temperatures Facilitates Broad Adaptation and Increased Genetic Diversity

West Nile virus (WNV, Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus introduced to North America in 1999. Since 1999, the Earth's average temperature has increased by 0.6 °C. Mosquitoes are ectothermic organisms, reliant on environmental heat sources. Temperature impacts vector-virus interactions which directly influence arbovirus transmission. RNA viral replication is highly error-prone and increasing temperature could further increase replication rates, mutation frequencies, and evolutionary rates. The impact of temperature on arbovirus evolutionary trajectories and fitness landscapes has yet to be sufficiently studied. To investigate how temperature impacts the rate and extent of WNV evolution in mosquito cells, WNV was experimentally passaged 12 times in Culex tarsalis cells, at 25 °C and 30 °C. Full-genome deep sequencing was used to compare genetic signatures during passage, and replicative fitness was evaluated before and after passage at each temperature. Our results suggest adaptive potential at both temperatures, with unique temperature-dependent and lineage-specific genetic signatures. Further, higher temperature passage was associated with significantly increased replicative fitness at both temperatures and increases in nonsynonymous mutations. Together, these data indicate that if similar selective pressures exist in natural systems, increases in temperature could accelerate emergence of high-fitness strains with greater phenotypic plasticity.

Characterizing Areas with Increased Burden of West Nile Virus Disease in California, 2009-2018

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that can cause severe neurological disease in humans, for which there is no treatment or vaccine. From 2009 to 2018, California has reported more human disease cases than any other state in the United States. We sought to identify smaller geographic areas within the 10 California counties with the highest number of WNV cases that accounted for disproportionately large numbers of human cases from 2009 to 2018. Eleven areas, consisting of groups of high-burden ZIP codes, were identified in nine counties within southern California and California's Central Valley. Despite containing only 2% of California's area and 17% of the state's population, these high-burden ZIP codes accounted for 44% of WNV cases reported and had a mean annual incidence that was 2.4 times the annual state incidence. Focusing mosquito control and public education efforts in these areas would lower WNV disease burden.

Shifting From Sectoral to Integrated Surveillance by Changing Collaborative Practices: Application to West Nile Virus Surveillance in a Small Island State of the Caribbean

After spreading in the Americas, West Nile virus was detected in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) for the first time in 2002. Ever since, several organizations have conducted research, serological surveys, and surveillance activities to detect the virus in horses, birds, mosquitoes, and humans. Organizations often carried them out independently, leading to knowledge gaps within the current virus' situation. Nearly 20 years after the first evidence of West Nile virus in the archipelago, it has not yet been isolated, its impact on human and animal populations is unknown, and its local epidemiological cycle is still poorly understood. Within the framework of a pilot project started in Guadeloupe in 2019, West Nile virus was chosen as a federative model to apply the "One Health" approach for zoonotic epidemiological surveillance and shift from a sectorial to an integrated surveillance system. Human, animal, and environmental health actors involved in both research and surveillance were considered. Semi-directed interviews and a Social Network Analysis were carried out to learn about the surveillance network structure and actors, analyze information flows, and identify communication challenges. An information system was developed to fill major gaps: users' needs and main functionalities were defined through a participatory process where actors also tested and validated the tool. Additionally, all actors shared their data, which were digitized, cataloged, and centralized, to be analyzed later. An R Shiny server was integrated into the information system, allowing an accessible and dynamic display of data showcasing all of the partners' information. Finally, a series of virtual workshops were organized among actors to discuss preliminary results and plan the next steps to improve West Nile Virus and vector-borne or emerging zoonosis surveillance. The actors are willing to build a more resilient and cooperative network in Guadeloupe with improved relevance, efficiency, and effectiveness of their work.

St. Louis Encephalitis Virus in the Southwestern United States: A Phylogeographic Case for a Multi-Variant Introduction Event

Since the reemergence of St. Louis Encephalitis (SLE) Virus (SLEV) in the Southwest United States, identified during the 2015 outbreak in Arizona, SLEV has been seasonally detected within Culex spp. populations throughout the Southwest United States. Previous work revealed the 2015 outbreak was caused by an importation of SLEV genotype III, which had only been detected previously in Argentina. However, little is known about when the importation occurred or the transmission and genetic dynamics since its arrival into the Southwest. In this study, we sought to determine whether the annual detection of SLEV in the Southwest is due to enzootic cycling or new importations. To address this question, we analyzed 174 SLEV genomes (142 sequenced as part of this study) using Bayesian phylogenetic analyses to estimate the date of arrival into the American Southwest and characterize the underlying population structure of SLEV. Phylogenetic clustering showed that SLEV variants circulating in Maricopa and Riverside counties form two distinct populations with little evidence of inter-county transmission since the onset of the outbreak. Alternatively, it appears that in 2019, Yuma and Clark counties experienced annual importations of SLEV that originated in Riverside and Maricopa counties. Finally, the earliest representatives of SLEV genotype III in the Southwest form a polytomy that includes both California and Arizona samples. We propose that the initial outbreak most likely resulted from the importation of a population of SLEV genotype III variants, perhaps in multiple birds, possibly multiple species, migrating north in 2013, rather than a single variant introduced by one bird.

An Efficient Alternative to the CDC Gravid Trap for Southern House Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) Surveillance

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most prevalent arbovirus found throughout the United States. Surveillance of surface breeding Culex vectors involved in WNV transmission is primarily conducted using CDC Gravid traps. However, anecdotal claims from mosquito abatement districts in Louisiana assert that other trap types may be more suited to WNV surveillance. To test the validity of these assertions, we conducted a series of trapping trials and WNV surveillance over 3 yr to compare the efficacy of multiple trap types. First, we compared the CDC Gravid trap, CO2-baited New Standard Miniature Blacklight traps, and CO2-baited CDC light traps with either an incandescent light, a red light, or no light. We found that the CDC Gravid trap and CO2-baited no-light CDC Light trap collected the most mosquitoes. Second, we conducted additional, long-term trapping and WNV surveillance to compare these two trap types. We found that CO2-baited no-light CDC traps collected more of the local WNV vector, Culex quinquefasciatus (Say, Diptera, Culicidae), and detected WNV with greater sensitivity. Finally, we conducted trapping to compare the physiological states of Cx. quinquefasciatus and diversity of collected mosquitoes. CO2-baited no-light CDC light traps collected more unfed Cx. quinquefasciatus while Gravid traps collected more blooded Cx. quinquefasciatus; both traps collected the same number of gravid Cx. quinquefasciatus. Additionally, we found that CO2-baited no-light CDC light traps collected a larger diversity of mosquito species than Gravid traps.

A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.

Whole-genome assembly of Culex tarsalis

The mosquito, Culex tarsalis, is a key vector in the western United States due to its role in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses that affect human health. Extensive research has been conducted on Cx. tarsalis ecology, feeding behavior, vector competence, autogeny, diapause, genetics, and insecticide resistance. Population genetic analyses in the western U.S. have identified at least three genetic clusters that are geographically distinct. However, in-depth genetic studies have been hindered by the lack of a reference genome. In this study, we present the first whole-genome assembly of this mosquito species (CtarK1) based on PacBio HiFi reads from high-molecular-weight DNA extracted from a single male. The CtarK1 assembly is 790 Mb with an N50 of 58 kb, which is 27% larger than Culex quinquefasciatus (578 Mb). This difference appears to be mostly composed of transposable elements. To annotate CtarK1, we used a previously assembled Cx. tarsalis transcriptome and approximately 17,456 protein genes from Cx. quinquefasciatus (N = 17,456). Genome completeness was assessed using the Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs (BUSCO) tool, which identified 84.8% of the 2799 Dipteran BUSCO genes. Using a Bayesian phylogeny based on mitochondrial genomes, we place Cx. tarsalis in the context of other mosquito species and estimate the divergence between Cx. tarsalis and Cx. quinquefasciatus to be between 15.8 and 22.2 million years ago (MYA). Important next steps from this work include characterizing the genetic basis of diapause and sex determination in Culex mosquitoes.

Molecular Determinants of West Nile Virus Virulence and Pathogenesis in Vertebrate and Invertebrate Hosts

West Nile virus (WNV), like the dengue virus (DENV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), are major arboviruses belonging to the Flavivirus genus. WNV is emerging or endemic in many countries around the world, affecting humans and other vertebrates. Since 1999, it has been considered to be a major public and veterinary health problem, causing diverse pathologies, ranging from a mild febrile state to severe neurological damage and death. WNV is transmitted in a bird–mosquito–bird cycle, and can occasionally infect humans and horses, both highly susceptible to the virus but considered dead-end hosts. Many studies have investigated the molecular determinants of WNV virulence, mainly with the ultimate objective of guiding vaccine development. Several vaccines are used in horses in different parts of the world, but there are no licensed WNV vaccines for humans, suggesting the need for greater understanding of the molecular determinants of virulence and antigenicity in different hosts. Owing to technical and economic considerations, WNV virulence factors have essentially been studied in rodent models, and the results cannot always be transported to mosquito vectors or to avian hosts. In this review, the known molecular determinants of WNV virulence, according to invertebrate (mosquitoes) or vertebrate hosts (mammalian and avian), are presented and discussed. This overview will highlight the differences and similarities found between WNV hosts and models, to provide a foundation for the prediction and anticipation of WNV re-emergence and its risk of global spread.

Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient.

Horizontal and Vertical Transmission of West Nile Virus by Aedes vexans (Diptera: Culicidae)

West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus) first caused human and veterinary disease, and was isolated from Culex pipiens pipiens L. and Aedes vexans (Meigen) (Diptera: Culicidae) in the United States in 1999. We report that a Connecticut strain of Ae. vexans was competent to transmit West Nile virus both horizontally to suckling mice and vertically to its progeny in the laboratory. Horizontal transmission was first observed on day 6 post-exposure (pe). Daily horizontal transmission rates generally increased with the day post-virus exposure with highest rates of 67-100% recorded on days 28-30 pe. One female vertically transmitted West Nile virus on day 21 pe, but only after it had taken its third bloodmeal. Horizontal and vertical transmission may contribute to West Nile virus infection rates in Ae. vexans in summer, and vertical transmission provides a means of survival of West Nile virus during winter.

Perspectives Regarding the Risk of Introduction of the Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) in the United States

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a zoonotic, emerging disease transmitted by mosquito vectors infected with the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). Its potential for emergence into susceptible regions is high, including in the United States (US), and is a reason of economic concern among the agricultural community, and to public health due to high morbidity and mortality rates in humans. While exploring the complexities of interactions involved with viral transmission, we proposed a new outlook on the role of vectors, hosts and the environment under changing conditions. For instance, the role of feral pigs may have been underappreciated in our previous work, given research keeps pointing to the importance of susceptible populations of wild swine in naïve regions as key elements for the introduction of emergent vector-borne diseases. High risk of JEV introduction has been associated with the transportation of infected mosquitoes via aircraft. Nonetheless, no JEV outbreaks have been reported in the US to date and results from a qualitative risk assessment considered the risk of establishment to be negligible under the current conditions (environmental, vector, pathogen, and host). In this work, we discuss virus-vector-host interactions and ecological factors important for virus transmission and spread, review research on the risk of JEV introduction to the US considering the implications of risk dismissal as it relates to past experiences with similar arboviruses, and reflect on future directions, challenges, and implications of a JEV incursion.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

Introduction, Spread, and Establishment of West Nile Virus in the Americas

The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) to North America in 1999 and its subsequent rapid spread across the Americas demonstrated the potential impact of arboviral introductions to new regions, and this was reinforced by the subsequent introductions of chikungunya and Zika viruses. Extensive studies of host-pathogen-vector-environment interactions over the past two decades have illuminated many aspects of the ecology and evolution of WNV and other arboviruses, including the potential for pathogen adaptation to hosts and vectors, the influence of climate, land use and host immunity on transmission ecology, and the difficulty in preventing the establishment of a zoonotic pathogen with abundant wildlife reservoirs. Here, we focus on outstanding questions concerning the introduction, spread, and establishment of WNV in the Americas, and what it can teach us about the future of arboviral introductions. Key gaps in our knowledge include the following: viral adaptation and coevolution of hosts, vectors and the virus; the mechanisms and species involved in the large-scale spatial spread of WNV; how weather modulates WNV transmission; the drivers of large-scale variation in enzootic transmission; the ecology of WNV transmission in Latin America; and the relative roles of each component of host-virus-vector interactions in spatial and temporal variation in WNV transmission. Integrative studies that examine multiple factors and mechanisms simultaneously are needed to advance our knowledge of mechanisms driving transmission.

On the Fly: Interactions Between Birds, Mosquitoes, and Environment That Have Molded West Nile Virus Genomic Structure Over Two Decades

West Nile virus (WNV) was first identified in North America almost 20 yr ago. In that time, WNV has crossed the continent and established enzootic transmission cycles, resulting in intermittent outbreaks of human disease that have largely been linked with climatic variables and waning avian seroprevalence. During the transcontinental dissemination of WNV, the original genotype has been displaced by two principal extant genotypes which contain an envelope mutation that has been associated with enhanced vector competence by Culex pipiens L. (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex tarsalis Coquillett vectors. Analyses of retrospective avian host competence data generated using the founding NY99 genotype strain have demonstrated a steady reduction in viremias of house sparrows over time. Reciprocally, the current genotype strains WN02 and SW03 have demonstrated an inverse correlation between house sparrow viremia magnitude and the time since isolation. These data collectively indicate that WNV has evolved for increased avian viremia while house sparrows have evolved resistance to the virus such that the relative host competence has remained constant. Intrahost analyses of WNV evolution demonstrate that selection pressures are avian species-specific and purifying selection is greater in individual birds compared with individual mosquitoes, suggesting that the avian adaptive and/or innate immune response may impose a selection pressure on WNV. Phylogenomic, experimental evolutionary systems, and models that link viral evolution with climate, host, and vector competence studies will be needed to identify the relative effect of different selective and stochastic mechanisms on viral phenotypes and the capacity of newly evolved WNV genotypes for transmission in continuously changing landscapes.

Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks

Over the past 20 yr, many models have been developed to predict risk for West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) disease in the human population. These models have aided our understanding of the meteorological and land-use variables that drive spatial and temporal patterns of human disease risk. During the same period, electronic data systems have been adopted by surveillance programs across much of the United States, including a growing interest in integrated data services that preserve the autonomy and attribution of credit to originating agencies but facilitate data sharing, analysis, and visualization at local, state, and national scales. At present, nearly all predictive models have been limited to the scientific literature, with few having been implemented for use by public-health and vector-control decision makers. The current article considers the development of models for spatial patterns, early warning, and early detection of WNV over the last 20 yr and considers some possible paths toward increasing the utility of these models for guiding interventions.

Overwintering of West Nile Virus in the United States

The establishment of a tropical virus such as West Nile (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) within the temperate latitudes of the continental United States was unexpected and perhaps contingent, in part, upon the ability of this invasive virus to persist during winter when temperatures become too cold for replication and vector mosquito gonotrophic activity. Our Forum article reviews research examining possible overwintering mechanisms that include consistent reintroduction and local persistence in vector mosquitoes and avian hosts, mostly using examples from research conducted in California. We conclude that the transmission of WNV involves so many vectors and hosts within different landscapes that multiple overwintering pathways are possible and collectively may be necessary to allow this virus to overwinter consistently within the United States.

Recent rapid changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of West Nile Neuro-invasive Disease in Italy

In Italy, the first human case of West Nile Virus (WNV) infection was reported in 2008 and, since then, the number of cases has been steadily increasing. In this study, we describe the temporal and spatial pattern of WNV infection risk among humans in Italy, focusing on the human cases of West Nile Neuro-invasive Disease (WNND) observed between 2008 and 2017. Incidence rates are estimated for each year and province under study. The incidence temporal trend is estimated using Poisson regression, and a spatio-temporal cluster detection analysis is performed to detect high-risk areas. In total, 231 WNND cases were notified in Italy between 2008 and 2017. The annual incidence rates increased during the study period (annual percentage change: 11.7%; 95%CI: -0.9%; 26.1%). A geographical spread of the disease was observed during the study period throughout Northern Italy, with an increasing number of affected provinces. Provinces close to the Po River (the main river in the north of Italy) and the Oristano province (in the Sardinia Island) experienced the highest incidence rates during the study period. Our study shows a gradual, but rapid spread of WNND across Northern Italy from east to west and suggests the hypothesis that provinces close to Po River might present ecological and climatic conditions favourable to the virus circulation.

Twenty years of West Nile virus spread and evolution in the Americas visualized by Nextstrain

It has been 20 years since West Nile virus first emerged in the Americas, and since then, little progress has been made to control outbreaks caused by this virus. After its first detection in New York in 1999, West Nile virus quickly spread across the continent, causing an epidemic of human disease and massive bird die-offs. Now the virus has become endemic to the United States, where an estimated 7 million human infections have occurred, making it the leading mosquito-borne virus infection and the most common cause of viral encephalitis in the country. To bring new attention to one of the most important mosquito-borne viruses in the Americas, we provide an interactive review using Nextstrain: a visualization tool for real-time tracking of pathogen evolution (nextstrain.org/WNV/NA). Nextstrain utilizes a growing database of more than 2,000 West Nile virus genomes and harnesses the power of phylogenetics for students, educators, public health workers, and researchers to visualize key aspects of virus spread and evolution. Using Nextstrain, we use virus genomics to investigate the emergence of West Nile virus in the U S, followed by its rapid spread, evolution in a new environment, establishment of endemic transmission, and subsequent international spread. For each figure, we include a link to Nextstrain to allow the readers to directly interact with and explore the underlying data in new ways. We also provide a brief online narrative that parallels this review to further explain the data and highlight key epidemiological and evolutionary features (nextstrain.org/narratives/twenty-years-of-WNV). Mirroring the dynamic nature of outbreaks, the Nextstrain links provided within this paper are constantly updated as new West Nile virus genomes are shared publicly, helping to stay current with the research. Overall, our review showcases how genomics can track West Nile virus spread and evolution, as well as potentially uncover novel targeted control measures to help alleviate its public health burden.

Current Progress of Avian Vaccines Against West Nile Virus

Birds are the main natural host of West Nile virus (WNV), the worldwide most distributed mosquito-borne flavivirus, but humans and equids can also be sporadic hosts. Many avian species have been reported as susceptible to WNV, particularly corvids. In the case that clinical disease develops in birds, this is due to virus invasion of different organs: liver, spleen, kidney, heart, and mainly the central nervous system, which can lead to death 24–48 h later. Nowadays, vaccines have only been licensed for use in equids; thus, the availability of avian vaccines would benefit bird populations, both domestic and wild ones. Such vaccines could be used in endangered species housed in rehabilitation and wildlife reserves, and in animals located at zoos and other recreational installations, but also in farm birds, and in those that are grown for hunting and restocking activities. Even more, controlling WNV infection in birds can also be useful to prevent its spread and limit outbreaks. So far, different commercial and experimental vaccines (inactivated, attenuated, and recombinant viruses, and subunits and DNA-based candidates) have been evaluated, with various regimens, both in domestic and wild avian species. However, there are still disadvantages that must be overcome before avian vaccination can be implemented, such as its cost-effectiveness for domestic birds since in many species the pathogenicity is low or zero, or the viability of being able to achieve collective immunity in wild birds in freedom. Here, a comprehensive review of what has been done until now in the field of avian vaccines against WNV is presented and discussed.

Satellite Earth Observation Data in Epidemiological Modeling of Malaria, Dengue and West Nile Virus: A Scoping Review

Earth Observation (EO) data can be leveraged to estimate environmental variables that influence the transmission cycle of the pathogens that lead to mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs). The aim of this scoping review is to examine the state-of-the-art and identify knowledge gaps on the latest methods that used satellite EO data in their epidemiological models focusing on malaria, dengue and West Nile Virus (WNV). In total, 43 scientific papers met the inclusion criteria and were considered in this review. Researchers have examined a wide variety of methodologies ranging from statistical to machine learning algorithms. A number of studies used models and EO data that seemed promising and claimed to be easily replicated in different geographic contexts, enabling the realization of systems on regional and national scales. The need has emerged to leverage furthermore new powerful modeling approaches, like artificial intelligence and ensemble modeling and explore new and enhanced EO sensors towards the analysis of big satellite data, in order to develop accurate epidemiological models and contribute to the reduction of the burden of MBDs.

Serosurvey of West Nile virus in household-reared pigeons in Bauchi metropolis, Nigeria

Background

In Nigeria not much is known about West Nile virus (WNV) in pigeons. This study determined the involvement of household-reared pigeons in the circulation of WNV in Nigeria.

Methods

It was a cross-sectional study. Serological detection was done using competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and a pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on risk factors related to WNV in households.

Results

From the156 households enumerated, 376 pigeon serum samples were collected and tested for antibodies. A total of 3.5% (13/376) of the pigeon sera were positive. Risk factors for WNV in households indicated that not having a blocked or stagnant gutter that is not flowing, and having mosquito nets at the windows and doors were found to be protective (OR=0.69, 95% CI, 0.21-2.29; OR=0.46, 95% CI, 0.14-1.56).

Conclusions

Household-reared pigeons contribute to the epidemiology of WNV. There is need for further studies in other species of birds, and education of the populace about its zoonotic transmission.

Short-term Forecasting of Daily Abundance of West Nile Virus Vectors Culex pipiens-restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes vexans Based on Weather Conditions in Southern Québec (Canada)

Since 2002, human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred every year in southern Canada, but WNV risk remains challenging to predict. Here, we explored the ability of weather-based forecasting models to predict the seasonal abundance of two WNV vector species (Culex pipiens-restuans and Aedes vexans) in Québec, Canada, and explored the importance of accounting for larvicide use and local habitat (forest park vs residential garden). A gamma-generalized linear model predicting mosquito abundance was developed based on an approach previously used in Ontario combining temperature and precipitation during the days preceding mosquito captures. This model was calibrated and validated for each species with independent entomological datasets from the Montréal region collected in 2013 and 2014. Culex pipiens-restuans abundance was associated with mean degree days (dd; >9°C) over the 22 d before mosquito capture and with mean precipitation over the 71 d before capture; Ae. vexans abundance with the mean dd (>12°C) over the 24 d before capture and mean precipitation over the 30 d before capture. These results are consistent with temperature effects on immature development rates and adult activity, and effects of precipitation on the abundance and suitability of breeding sites. Taking into account larvicide use and habitat significantly improved the predictions. This study provides evidence that weather conditions can yield robust short-term predictions of the regional daily mosquito abundance, particularly when accounting for local variation in habitat or mosquito control efforts, and may provide real-time indicators of WNV or other mosquito-borne disease risks during the summer.

Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change

There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.

Could exotic mosquito-borne diseases emerge in Canada with climate change?

Of the 3,500 species of mosquitoes worldwide, only a small portion carry and transmit the mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) that cause approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide. The most common exotic MBDs, such as malaria and dengue, are not currently established in Canada, in part because of our relatively harsh climate; however, this situation could evolve with climate change. Mosquitoes native to Canada may become infected with new pathogens and move into new regions within Canada. In addition, new mosquito species may move into Canada from other countries, and these exotic species may bring exotic MBDs as well. With high levels of international travel, including to locations with exotic MBDs, there will be more travel-acquired cases of MBDs. With climate change, there is the potential for exotic mosquito populations to become established in Canada. There is already a small area of Canada where exotic Aedes mosquitoes have become established although, to date, there is no evidence that these carry any exotic (or already endemic) MBDs. The increased risks of spreading MBDs, or introducing exotic MBDs, will need a careful clinical and public health response. Clinicians will need to maintain a high level of awareness of current trends, to promote mosquito bite prevention strategies, and to know the laboratory tests needed for early detection and when to report laboratory results to public health. Public health efforts will need to focus on ongoing active surveillance, public and professional awareness and mosquito control. Canadians need to be aware of the risks of acquiring exotic MBDs while travelling abroad as well as the risk that they could serve as a potential route of introduction for exotic MBDs into Canada when they return home.