The 2019 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress

The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.

Climate Change Adaptation Methods for Public Health Prevention in Australia: an Integrative Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Climate change poses a serious threat to human health and well-being. Australia is not immune to the public health impacts and continues to be underprepared, putting the population health at risk. However, there is a dearth in knowledge about how the Australian public health system will address the impacts of climate change.

RECENT FINDINGS

This integrative review synthesises tools, frameworks, and guidance material suitable for climate change adaptation from a preventive public health perspective. The literature search was conducted in electronic databases MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, and Web of Science. Of 4507 articles identified, 19 articles met the inclusion criteria that focused on operational methods in public health and excluded the clinical context and reactive disaster response approaches. This review revealed that Australia is ill-prepared to manage climate change adverse health impacts due to ineffective adaptation strategies. The review highlights that Australia urgently requires effective adaptation strategies such as undertaking a National Adaptation Plan process and an improved understanding in managing complex health risks. Taking this action will strengthen the public health system and build health resilience especially for vulnerable populations. These findings will help understand and develop of the necessary adaptive strategies in Australia.

Disease burden of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019: a comparative study based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

We hope to reveal the changing trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden attributable to particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) and its age, period and cohort effects in China, Japan and Korea.

DESIGN

We analysed the trend of COPD disease burden attributable to PM2.5 from 1990 to 2019 based on the latest Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD 2019) using JoinPoint model and analysed the effect of age, period and cohort on COPD burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, Japan and Korea from 1990 to 2019 using age-period-cohort model (model).

SETTING

GBD data from 1990 to 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were publicly available and individuals were not involved.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Outcomes included the age standardised mortality rate (ASMR), the age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY), average annual per cent change (AAPC), net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, period (cohort) rate ratios, age (period, cohort) bias coefficient.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China (AAPC=-5.862), Japan (AAPC=-1.715) and Korea (AAPC=-1.831) showed a downward trend. The age-standardised DALY of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China (AAPC=-5.821), Japan (AAPC=-1.39) and Korea (AAPC=-1.239) showed a downward trend. Mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 increased slowly with age in Korea and Japan. Mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China decreased after rising (95% CI: 404.66 to 466.01). Mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 decreased over time in China and Korea, while it increased in Japan from 2015 to 2019. In China and Japan, mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 was approximately lower the later the birth, while in Korea it decreased after an increase (95% CI: 2.13 to 2.40) in the 1900-1910.

CONCLUSIONS

Most COPD burden attributable to PM2.5 is on the decline; COPD mortality attributable to PM2.5 both increased with age and decreased with time and cohort. Countries with high burden should develop targeted measures to control PM2.5.

Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Health Services in Northern New South Wales, Australia: A Rapid Review

Climate change is exposing populations to increasing temperatures and extreme weather events in many parts of Australia. To prepare for climate challenges, there is a growing need for Local Health Districts (LHDs) to identify potential health impacts in their region and strengthen the capacity of the health system to respond accordingly. This rapid review summarised existing evidence and research gaps on the impact of climate change on health and health services in Northern New South Wales (NSW)-a 'hotspot' for climate disaster declarations. We systematically searched online databases and selected 11 peer-reviewed studies published between 2012-2022 for the Northern NSW region. The most explored health outcome was mental health in the aftermath of floods and droughts, followed by increased healthcare utilisation due to respiratory, cardiovascular and mortality outcomes associated with bushfire smoke or heat waves. Future research directions were recommended to understand: the compounding impacts of extreme events on health and the health system, local data needs that can better inform models that predict future health risks and healthcare utilisation for the region, and the needs of vulnerable populations that require a whole-of-system response during the different phases of disasters. In conclusion, the review provided climate change and health research directions the LHD may undertake to inform future adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies relevant to their region.

Advances in technology and utilization of natural resources for achieving carbon neutrality and a sustainable solution to neutral environment

The greatest environmental issue of the twenty-first century is climate change. Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the frequency of extreme weather. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) accounts for 80% of human greenhouse gas emissions. However, CO₂ emissions and global temperature have risen steadily from pre-industrial times. Emissions data are crucial for most carbon emission policymaking and goal-setting. Sustainable and carbon-neutral sources must be used to create green energy and fossil-based alternatives to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Near-real-time monitoring of carbon emissions is a critical national concern and cutting-edge science. This review article provides an overview of the many carbon accounting systems that are now in use and are based on an annual time frame. The primary emphasis of the study is on the recently created carbon emission and eliminating sources and technology, as well as the current application trends for carbon neutrality. We also propose a framework for the most advanced naturally available carbon neutral accounting sources capable of being implemented on a large scale. Forming relevant data and procedures will help the "carbon neutrality" plan decision-making process. The formation of pertinent data and methodologies will give robust database support to the decision-making process for the "carbon neutrality" plan for the globe. In conclusion, this article offers some opinions, opportunities, challenges and future perspectives related to carbon neutrality and carbon emission monitoring and eliminating resources and technologies.

Prevalence and determinants of mental health related to climate change in Australia

AIMS

The climate emergency will likely prove this century's greatest threat to public health within which mental health effects need consideration. While studies consistently show the majority of Australians are very concerned about the impacts of climate change, there is limited evidence from nation-wide research linking climate change with mental health burden in sub-populations. This study aimed to understand the impact of climate change on mental health in the Australian population and identify populations who are most at risk of climate-related mental health burden.

METHODS

A nation-wide Australian survey conducted between August and November 2020 of adults was approximately representative across sex, age, location, state and area disadvantage. Two-stage recruitment involved unrestricted self-selected community sample through mainstream and social media (N = 4428) and purposeful sampling using an online panel (N = 1055).

RESULTS

Most Australians report having a direct experience of a climate change-related event. Young people are experiencing significant rates of eco-anxiety. One in four people with direct experience of a climate change-related event met post-traumatic stress disorder screening criteria. People who have not had a direct experience are showing symptoms of pre-trauma, particularly in younger age groups and women. There were 9.37% (503/5370) of respondents with responses indicating significant eco-anxiety, 15.68% (370/2359) with pre-traumatic stress and 25.60% (727/2840) with post-traumatic stress disorder. Multivariable regressions confirmed that younger people are more affected by eco-anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (pre- or post-trauma); women are more affected by post-traumatic stress disorder (pre- or post-trauma) and those from more disadvantaged regions are more affected by eco-anxiety.

CONCLUSION

Australia is facing a potential mental health crisis. Individuals with and without direct experience of climate change are reporting significant mental health impacts, with younger age groups being disproportionately affected. There are key roles for clinicians and other health professionals in responding to and preventing climate-related mental health burden.

Diversifying Indigenous Vulnerability and Adaptation: An Intersectional Reading of Māori Women’s Experiences of Health, Wellbeing, and Climate Change

Despite evidence that Indigenous peoples’ multiple subjectivities engender diverse lived experiences both between and within Indigenous groups, the influence of multiple subjectivities on Indigenous peoples’ vulnerability and adaptation to climate change is largely un-explored. Drawing on ethnographic research with Indigenous Māori women in Aotearoa New Zealand, this paper provides empirical evidence that subjectivity-mediated power dynamics operating within Indigenous societies (at the individual and household scale) are important determinants of vulnerability and adaptation which should be considered in both scholarship and policy. Using an intersectional framework, I demonstrate how different Māori women and their whānau (families) live, cope with, and adapt to the embodied physical and emotional health effects of climate change in radically different ways because of their subject positionings, even though they belong to the same community, hapū (sub-tribe), or iwi (tribe). In underlining these heterogenous experiences, I provide an avenue for reconsidering how climate adaptation scholarship, policies, and practices might better engage with the complex, amorphous realities within Māori and other Indigenous communities. I argue it is possible to develop more inclusive, tailored, and sustainable adaptation that considers divergent vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities within Indigenous communities, groups, and societies and supports customised vulnerability-reduction strategies.

The association of wildfire air pollution with COVID-19 incidence in New South Wales, Australia

The 2020 COVID-19 outbreak in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, followed an unprecedented wildfire season that exposed large populations to wildfire smoke. Wildfires release particulate matter (PM), toxic gases and organic and non-organic chemicals that may be associated with increased incidence of COVID-19. This study estimated the association of wildfire smoke exposure with the incidence of COVID-19 in NSW. A Bayesian mixed-effect regression was used to estimate the association of either the average PM₁₀ level or the proportion of wildfire burned area as proxies of wildfire smoke exposure with COVID-19 incidence in NSW, adjusting for sociodemographic risk factors. The analysis followed an ecological design using the 129 NSW Local Government Areas (LGA) as the ecological units. A random effects model and a model including the LGA spatial distribution (spatial model) were compared. A higher proportional wildfire burned area was associated with higher COVID-19 incidence in both the random effects and spatial models after adjustment for sociodemographic factors (posterior mean = 1.32 (99% credible interval: 1.05-1.67) and 1.31 (99% credible interval: 1.03-1.65), respectively). No evidence of an association between the average PM₁₀ level and the COVID-19 incidence was found. LGAs in the greater Sydney and Hunter regions had the highest increase in the risk of COVID-19. This study identified wildfire smoke exposures were associated with increased risk of COVID-19 in NSW. Research on individual responses to specific wildfire airborne particles and pollutants needs to be conducted to further identify the causal links between SARS-Cov-2 infection and wildfire smoke. The identification of LGAs with the highest risk of COVID-19 associated with wildfire smoke exposure can be useful for public health prevention and or mitigation strategies.

Global Burden of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Exposure to ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) is a global health issue that directly affects the human respiratory system. Thus, we estimated the spatiotemporal trends in the burden of APMP-related respiratory diseases from 1990 to 2019.

Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, data on the burden of APMP-related respiratory diseases were analyzed by age, sex, cause, and location. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the temporal trends in the burden of different respiratory diseases over the 30 years.

Results: Globally, in 2019, APMP contributed the most to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), with 695.1 thousand deaths and 15.4 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); however, the corresponding age-standardized death and DALY rates declined from 1990 to 2019. Similarly, although age-standardized death and DALY rates since 1990 decreased by 24% and 40%, respectively, lower respiratory infections (LRIs) still had the second highest number of deaths and DALYs attributable to APMP. This was followed by tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer, which showed increased age-standardized death and DALY rates during the past 30 years and reached 3.78 deaths per 100,000 persons and 84.22 DALYs per 100,000 persons in 2019. Among children aged < 5 years, LRIs had a huge burden attributable to APMP, whereas for older people, COPD was the leading cause of death and DALYs attributable to APMP. The APMP-related burdens of LRIs and COPD were relatively higher among countries with low and low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI), while countries with high-middle SDI showed the highest burden of TBL cancer attributable to APMP.

Conclusions: APMP contributed substantially to the global burden of respiratory diseases, posing a significant threat to human health. Effective actions aimed at air pollution can potentially avoid an increase in the PM_2.5-associated disease burden, especially in highly polluted areas.

The 2021 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia increasingly out on a limb

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017, and produced its first national assessment in 2018, its first annual update in 2019, and its second annual update in 2020. It examines indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. Our special report in 2020 focused on the unprecedented and catastrophic 2019-20 Australian bushfire season, highlighting indicators that explore the relationships between health, climate change and bushfires. For 2021, we return to reporting on the full suite of indicators across each of the five domains and have added some new indicators. We find that Australians are increasingly exposed to and vulnerable to excess heat and that this is already limiting our way of life, increasing the risk of heat stress during outdoor sports, and decreasing work productivity across a range of sectors. Other weather extremes are also on the rise, resulting in escalating social, economic and health impacts. Climate change disproportionately threatens Indigenous Australians' wellbeing in multiple and complex ways. In response to these threats, we find positive action at the individual, local, state and territory levels, with growing uptake of rooftop solar and electric vehicles, and the beginnings of appropriate adaptation planning. However, this is severely undermined by national policies and actions that are contrary and increasingly place Australia out on a limb. Australia has responded well to the COVID-19 public health crisis (while still emerging from the bushfire crisis that preceded it) and it now needs to respond to and prepare for the health crises resulting from climate change.

Efficacy of Communication Techniques and Health Outcomes of Bushfire Smoke Exposure: A Scoping Review

Public health officials communicate the relevant risks of bushfire smoke exposure and associated health protection measures to affected populations. Increasing global bushfire incidence in the context of climate change motivated this scoping review. English-language publications related to adverse health outcomes following bushfire smoke exposure and publications relating to communication during natural disasters were included. Bushfire smoke events potentially increase healthcare contact, especially presentations triggered by respiratory illness. At-risk populations include those with underlying cardiorespiratory disease, elderly, paediatric, pregnant persons, and First Nations people. We found that social media, television, and radio are among the most common information sources utilised in bushfire smoke events. Message style, content, and method of delivery can directly influence message uptake and behaviour modification. Age, rurality, and geographical location influence information source preferences. Culturally and linguistically diverse groups and those with hearing, vision, and mobility-related disabilities may benefit from targeted health recommendations. This review emphasises the health effects of bushfire smoke exposure and related communication recommendations during and after bushfire smoke events. Additional investigation may further clarify the health effects of bushfire smoke exposure and efficacy of related health messaging, particularly in at-risk populations. Quantitative comparison of communication methods may yield more specific recommendations for future bushfire smoke events.

Planetary health indicators for the local level: opportunities and challenges in applying the happy planet index in Victoria, Australia

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, New Urban Agenda and Paris Agreement on Climate Change are blueprints for health promotion action that mandate human health is linked inextricably to the health of the environment. In the Anthropocene, new indicators are required to promote community engagement with, and measurement of, healthy and sustainable wellbeing for people and planet. This study explored the need for a metric such as the Happy Planet Index that explicitly links human health to health of the environment for a local level scale in Australia. The project arose from an international coalition of health promoters advocating for 'planetary health' approaches. Qualitative description methods guided the study design involving key informant interviews (n = 17) and four focus groups (n = 27 participants) with health and/or sustainability academics, practitioners and policy-makers. Document analysis of health and environment indices and policy mandates augmented the analysis. Qualitative content analysis techniques were used to analyse the findings. There was strong interest for a local level composite indicator, such as a rescaled Happy Planet Index (life expectancy × life satisfaction × equity adjustment/ecological footprint) for use at a local level. The value of a composite index was: its ability to promote community engagement with planetary health thinking; an advocacy tool for joint health and sustainability policy; to justify programs on health and environmental co-benefits; and to provide a mechanism for correlative comparisons between local governments and national comparisons. However, disciplinary silos currently limit partnerships for health promotion and planetary health and a local composite index could help bridge these divides.

Characterising non-linear associations between airborne pollen counts and respiratory symptoms from the AirRater smartphone app in Tasmania, Australia: A case time series approach

Pollen is a well-established trigger of asthma and allergic rhinitis, yet concentration-response relationships, lagged effects, and interactions with other environmental factors remain poorly understood. Smartphone technology offers an opportunity to address these challenges using large, multi-year datasets that capture individual symptoms and exposures in real time. We aimed to characterise associations between six pollen types and respiratory symptoms logged by users of the AirRater smartphone app in Tasmania, Australia. We analyzed 44,820 symptom reports logged by 2272 AirRater app users in Tasmania over four years (2015-2019). With these data we evaluated associations between daily respiratory symptoms and atmospheric pollen concentrations. We implemented Poisson regression models, using the case time series approach designed for app-sourced data. We assessed potentially non-linear and lagged associations with (a) total pollen and (b) six individual pollen taxa. We adjusted for seasonality and meteorology and tested for interactions with particulate air pollution (PM_2.5). We found evidence of non-linear associations between total pollen and respiratory symptoms for up to three days following exposure. For total pollen, the same-day relative risk (RR) increased to 1.31 (95% CI: 1.26-1.37) at a concentration of 50 grains/m³ before plateauing. Associations with individual pollen taxa were also non-linear with some diversity in shapes. For all pollen taxa the same-day RR was highest. The interaction between total pollen and PM_2.5 was positive, with risks associated with pollen significantly higher in the presence of high concentrations of PM_2.5. Our results support a non-linear response between airborne pollen and respiratory symptoms. The association was strongest on the day of exposure and synergistic with particulate air pollution. The associations found with Dodonaea and Myrtaceae highlight the need to further investigate the role of Australian native pollen types in allergic respiratory disease.

71Advanced Environmental Epidemiology for Health and Climate Research

Focus and outcomes for participants

The symposium will focus on insights and applications of advanced environmental epidemiology methods in health and climate research. The symposium will help the participants

Rationale for the symposium, including for its inclusion in the Congress

Climate change is the greatest health challenge in the 21st century. The most recent Lancet Countdown report (Watts et al. 2019) and the MJA-Lancet Countdown Australian reports (Zhang et al. 2018; Beggs et al. 2019) on health and climate change research have once again highlighted the global vulnerability to health risks from climate change. Epidemiology plays an important role in informing policy to protect the public’s health from a changing climate. However, limited research has been conducted in the field, which may be due to the methodological challenges to conducting research in climate change epidemiology (Xun et al. 2010). However, there are opportunities for advancing epidemiological research in the context of climate change, as highlighted in the recent paper published in the American Journal of Epidemiology (Anderson et al. 2019). The proposed symposium aligns precisely with the conference theme on methodological innovations in epidemiology and the need for epidemiologists who are keen to address non-traditional epidemiological health risks to support decision-making under a changing climate. This symposium will be a timely event to build capacity needed to address more extreme weather events and disasters related to climate change in Australia and globally.

Presentation program (90 minutes)

The symposium will have 6 presentations, 15 minutes each including Q&A.

Names and short biography of presenters

Legal strategies to improve physical activity in populations

The World Health Assembly has adopted the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommended target of achieving a 15% reduction in physical inactivity by 2030. The WHO Global Action Plan on Physical Activity provides a framework for countries to achieve this, using a systems-based approach to address the social and environmental determinants of physical inactivity. Lack of progress in many countries indicates a need to identify new ways of addressing this public health priority. WHO continues to highlight the importance of legislative and regulatory measures within the multicomponent and multisectoral action needed to reduce physical inactivity. Yet research into the role of law for addressing physical inactivity has been limited, in contrast to the legal approaches to other major noncommunicable disease risk factors such as smoking and alcohol use. Conceptual frameworks for public health law offer a method for mapping and understanding the determinants, mechanisms and outcomes of law-making for the promotion of physical activity within populations. We describe the development and application of a framework that aligns legal strategies with the WHO Global Plan policy objectives. This new framework – the Regulatory Approaches to Movement, Physical Activity, Recreation, Transport and Sport – can help policy-makers to use the untapped potential of legal interventions to support or strengthen a whole-system response for promoting physical activity. The framework illustrates the role of legal interventions to improve physical activity and identifies opportunities for research to advance understanding, implementation and evaluation of legal responses to this issue.

Environmental Hazards and Behavior Change: User Perspectives on the Usability and Effectiveness of the AirRater Smartphone App

AirRater is a free smartphone app developed in 2015, supporting individuals to protect their health from environmental hazards. It does this by providing (i) location-specific and near real-time air quality, pollen and temperature information and (ii) personal symptom tracking functionality. This research sought to evaluate user perceptions of AirRater's usability and effectiveness. We collected demographic data and completed semi-structured interviews with 42 AirRater users, identified emergent themes, and used two frameworks designed to understand and support behavior change-the Behavior Change Wheel (BCW) and the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM)-to interpret results. Of the 42 participants, almost half indicated that experiencing symptoms acted as a prompt for app use. Information provided by the app supported a majority of the 42 participants to make decisions and implement behaviors to protect their health irrespective of their location or context. The majority of participants also indicated that they shared information provided by the app with family, friends and/or colleagues. The evaluation also identified opportunities to improve the app. Several study limitations were identified, which impacts the generalizability of results beyond the populations studied. Despite these limitations, findings facilitated new insights into motivations for behavior change, and contribute to the existing literature investigating the potential for smartphone apps to support health protection from environmental hazards in a changing climate.

AMEE Consensus Statement: Planetary health and education for sustainable healthcare

The purpose of this Consensus Statement is to provide a global, collaborative, representative and inclusive vision for educating an interprofessional healthcare workforce that can deliver sustainable healthcare and promote planetary health. It is intended to inform national and global accreditation standards, planning and action at the institutional level as well as highlight the role of individuals in transforming health professions education. Many countries have agreed to 'rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes' to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45% within 10 years and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, including in healthcare. Currently, however, health professions graduates are not prepared for their roles in achieving these changes. Thus, to reduce emissions and meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), health professions education must equip undergraduates, and those already qualified, with the knowledge, skills, values, competence and confidence they need to sustainably promote the health, human rights and well-being of current and future generations, while protecting the health of the planet.The current imperative for action on environmental issues such as climate change requires health professionals to mobilize politically as they have before, becoming strong advocates for major environmental, social and economic change. A truly ethical relationship with people and the planet that we inhabit so precariously, and to guarantee a future for the generations which follow, demands nothing less of all health professionals.This Consensus Statement outlines the changes required in health professions education, approaches to achieve these changes and a timeline for action linked to the internationally agreed SDGs. It represents the collective vision of health professionals, educators and students from various health professions, geographic locations and cultures. 'Consensus' implies broad agreement amongst all individuals engaged in discussion on a specific issue, which in this instance, is agreement by all signatories of this Statement developed under the auspices of the Association for Medical Education in Europe (AMEE).To ensure a shared understanding and to accurately convey information, we outline key terms in a glossary which accompanies this Consensus Statement (Supplementary Appendix 1). We acknowledge, however, that terms evolve and that different terms resonate variably depending on factors such as setting and audience. We define education for sustainable healthcare as the process of equipping current and future health professionals with the knowledge, values, confidence and capacity to provide environmentally sustainable services through health professions education. We define a health professional as a person who has gained a professional qualification for work in the health system, whether in healthcare delivery, public health or a management or supporting role and education as 'the system comprising structures, curricula, faculty and activities contributing to a learning process'. This Statement is relevant to the full continuum of training - from undergraduate to postgraduate and continuing professional development.

Modeling risks from natural hazards with generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

We investigate a new framework for estimating the frequency and severity of losses associated with catastrophic risks such as bushfires, storms and floods. We explore generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) for the quantification of regional risk factors - geographical, weather and climate variables - with the aim of better quantifying the frequency and severity of catastrophic losses from natural perils. Due to the flexibility of the GAMLSS approach, we find a superior fit to empirical loss data for the applied models in comparison to generalized linear regression models typically applied in the literature. In particular the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) provides a good fit to the severity of losses. Including covariates in the calibration of the scale parameter, we obtain vastly differently shaped distributions for the predicted individual losses at different levels of the covariates. Testing the GAMLSS approach in an out-of-sample validation exercise, we also find support for a correct specification of the estimated models. More accurate models for the losses from natural hazards will help state and local government policy development, in particular for risk management and scenario planning for emergency services with respect to these perils.

Spatial Analysis of the Neighborhood Risk Factors for Respiratory Health in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT): Implications for Emergency Planning

The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) experienced the worst air quality in the world for several consecutive days following the 2019–2020 Australian bushfires. With a focus on asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), this retrospective study examined the neighborhood-level risk factors for these diseases from 2011 to 2013, including household distance to hospital emergency departments (ED) and general practices (GP) and area-level socioeconomic disadvantage and demographic characteristics at a high spatial resolution. Poisson and Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWR) were compared to examine the need for spatially explicit models. GWR performed significantly better, with rates of both respiratory diseases positively associated with area-level socioeconomic disadvantage. Asthma rates were positively associated with increasing distance from a hospital. Increasing distance to GP was not associated with asthma or COPD rates. These results suggest that respiratory health improvements could be made by prioritizing areas of socioeconomic disadvantage. The ACT has a relatively high density of GP that is geographically well spaced. This distribution of GP could be leveraged to improve emergency response planning in the future.

Institutional Engagement Practices as Barriers to Public Health Capacity in Climate Change Policy Discourse: Lessons from the Canadian Province of Ontario

Public health engagement in the communication, discussion, and development of climate change policies is essential for climate change policy decisions and discourse. This study examines how the existing governance approaches impact, enable, or constrain the inclusion, participation, and deliberation of public health stakeholders in the climate change policy discourse. Using the case study of the Canadian Province of Ontario, we conducted semi-structured, key informant interviews of public health (11) and non-public health (13) participants engaged in climate change policies in the province. The study results reveal that engagement and partnerships on climate change policies occurred within and across public health and non-public health organizations in Ontario. These engagements impacted public health's roles, decisions, mandate, and capacities beyond the climate change discourse; enabled access to funds, expertise, and new stakeholders; built relationships for future engagements; supported knowledge sharing, generation, and creation; and advanced public health interests in political platforms and decision making. However, public health's participation and deliberation were constrained by a fragmented sectoral approach, a lack of holistic inter-organizational structures and process, political and bureaucratic influences, irregular and unestablished communication channels for public health integration, and identities and culture focused on functions, mandates, biased ideologies, and a lack of clear commitment to engage public health. We conclude by providing practical approaches for integrating public health into climate change discourse and policymaking processes and advancing public health partnerships and collaborative opportunities.

Increasing trends in regional heatwaves

Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systematically examine regional and global observed heatwave trends. In almost all regions, heatwave frequency demonstrates the most rapid and significant change. A measure of cumulative heat shows significant increases almost everywhere since the 1950s, mainly driven by heatwave days. Trends in heatwave frequency, duration and cumulative heat have accelerated since the 1950s, and due to the high influence of variability we recommend regional trends are assessed over multiple decades. Our results provide comparable regional observed heatwave trends, on spatial and temporal scales necessary for understanding impacts.

Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and more intense under global warming, but how these trends differ on a regional scale is not well known. Here, the authors provide a comprehensive assessment of regional changes and show that most heat indicaters have increased since the 1950s.