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Semmler G, Hartl L, Mendoza YP, Simbrunner B, Jachs M, Balcar L, Schwarz M, Hofer BS, Fritz L, Schedlbauer A, Stopfer K, Neumayer D, Maurer J, Szymanski R, Meyer EL, Scheiner B, Quehenberger P, Trauner M, Aigner E, Berzigotti A, Reiberger T, Mandorfer M. Simple blood tests to diagnose compensated advanced chronic liver disease and stratify the risk of clinically significant portal hypertension. Hepatology 2024; 80:887-900. [PMID: 38447034 DOI: 10.1097/hep.0000000000000829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2023] [Accepted: 02/02/2024] [Indexed: 03/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) identifies patients at risk for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), and thus, for liver-related complications. The limited availability of liver stiffness measurements (LSM) impedes the identification of patients at risk for cACLD/CSPH outside of specialized clinics. We aimed to develop a blood-based algorithm to identify cACLD by fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and CSPH by von Willebrand factor/platelet count ratio (VITRO). APPROACH AND RESULTS Patients with (suspected) compensated chronic liver disease undergoing FIB-4+LSM were included in the LSM/FIB-4 cohorts from Vienna and Salzburg. The HVPG/VITRO cohorts included patients undergoing HVPG-measurement + VITRO from Vienna and Bern.LSM/FIB-4-derivation-cohort: We included 6143 patients, of whom 211 (3.4%) developed hepatic decompensation. In all, 1724 (28.1%) had LSM ≥ 10 kPa, which corresponded to FIB-4 ≥ 1.75. Importantly, both LSM (AUROC:0.897 [95% CI:0.865-0.929]) and FIB-4 (AUROC:0.914 [95% CI:0.885-0.944]) were similarly accurate in predicting hepatic decompensation within 3 years. FIB-4 ≥ 1.75 identified patients at risk for first hepatic decompensation (5 y-cumulative incidence:7.6%), while in those <1.75, the risk was negligible (0.3%).HVPG/VITRO-derivation cohort: 247 patients of whom 202 had cACLD/FIB-4 ≥ 1.75 were included. VITRO exhibited an excellent diagnostic performance for CSPH (AUROC:0.889 [95% CI:0.844-0.934]), similar to LSM (AUROC:0.856 [95% CI:0.801-0.910], p = 0.351) and the ANTICIPATE model (AUROC:0.910 [95% CI:0.869-0.952], p = 0.498). VITRO < 1.0/ ≥ 2.5 ruled-out (sensitivity:100.0%)/ruled-in (specificity:92.4%) CSPH. The diagnostic performance was comparable to the Baveno-VII criteria.LSM/FIB-4-derivation cohort findings were externally validated in n = 1560 patients, while HVPG/VITRO-derivation-cohort findings were internally (n = 133) and externally (n = 55) validated. CONCLUSIONS Simple, broadly available laboratory tests (FIB-4/VITRO) facilitate cACLD detection and CSPH risk stratification in patients with (suspected) liver disease. This blood-based approach is applicable outside of specialized clinics and may promote early intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georg Semmler
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Lukas Hartl
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Yuly Paulin Mendoza
- Department for Visceral Medicine and Surgery, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Biomedical Research, Visceral Surgery and Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Benedikt Simbrunner
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Mathias Jachs
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Lorenz Balcar
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Michael Schwarz
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Benedikt Silvester Hofer
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Laurenz Fritz
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Anna Schedlbauer
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Katharina Stopfer
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Daniela Neumayer
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Jurij Maurer
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Robin Szymanski
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Elias Laurin Meyer
- Center for Medical Data Science, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Berry Consultants, Vienna, Austria
| | - Bernhard Scheiner
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Peter Quehenberger
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Michael Trauner
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Elmar Aigner
- First Department of Medicine, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria
| | - Annalisa Berzigotti
- Department for Visceral Medicine and Surgery, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Biomedical Research, Visceral Surgery and Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Mattias Mandorfer
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Internal Medicine III, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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Efthimiou O, Seo M, Chalkou K, Debray T, Egger M, Salanti G. Developing clinical prediction models: a step-by-step guide. BMJ 2024; 386:e078276. [PMID: 39227063 PMCID: PMC11369751 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-078276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/12/2024] [Indexed: 09/05/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Orestis Efthimiou
- Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Michael Seo
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Thomas Debray
- Smart Data Analysis and Statistics B V, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Matthias Egger
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Georgia Salanti
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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3
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Gao N, Dakin HA, Holman RR, Lim LL, Leal J, Clarke P. Estimating Risk Factor Time Paths Among People with Type 2 Diabetes and QALY Gains from Risk Factor Management. PHARMACOECONOMICS 2024; 42:1017-1028. [PMID: 38922488 PMCID: PMC11344020 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01398-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/12/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Most type 2 diabetes simulation models utilise equations mapping out lifetime trajectories of risk factors [e.g. glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)]. Existing equations, using historic data or assuming constant risk factors, frequently underestimate or overestimate complication rates. Updated risk factor time path equations are needed for simulation models to more accurately predict complication rates. AIMS (1) Update United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM2) risk factor time path equations; (2) compare quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using original and updated equations; and (3) compare QALY gains for reference case simulations using different risk factor equations. METHODS Using pooled contemporary data from two randomised trials EXSCEL and TECOS (n = 28,608), we estimated: dynamic panel models of seven continuous risk factors (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, HbA1c, haemoglobin, heart rate, blood pressure and body mass index); two-step models of estimated glomerular filtration rate; and survival analyses of peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation and albuminuria. UKPDS-OM2-derived lifetime QALYs were extrapolated over 70 years using historical and the new risk factor equations. RESULTS All new risk factor equation predictions were within 95% confidence intervals of observed values, displaying good agreement between observed and estimated values. Historical risk factor time path equations predicted trial participants would accrue 9.84 QALYs, increasing to 10.98 QALYs using contemporary equations. DISCUSSION Incorporating updated risk factor time path equations into diabetes simulation models could give more accurate predictions of long-term health, costs, QALYs and cost-effectiveness estimates, as well as a more precise understanding of the impact of diabetes on patients' health, expenditure and quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01144338 and NCT00790205.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ni Gao
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
| | - Helen A Dakin
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK.
| | - Rury R Holman
- Diabetes Trials Unit, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Lee-Ling Lim
- Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
- Asia Diabetes Foundation, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - José Leal
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
| | - Philip Clarke
- Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
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4
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Magaz M, Giudicelli-Lett H, G Abraldes J, Nicoară-Farcău O, Turon F, Rajoriya N, Goel A, Raymenants K, Hillaire S, Téllez L, Elkrief L, Procopet B, Orts L, Nery F, Shukla A, Larrue H, Degroote H, Aguilera V, LLop E, Turco L, Indulti F, Gioia S, Tosetti G, Bitto N, Becchetti C, Alvarado E, Roig C, Diaz R, Praktiknjo M, Konicek AL, Olivas P, Fortea JI, Masnou H, Puente Á, Ardèvol A, Navascués CA, Romero-Gutiérrez M, Scheiner B, Semmler G, Mandorfer M, Damião F, Baiges A, Ojeda A, Simón-Talero M, González-Alayón C, Díaz A, García-Criado Á, De Gottardi A, Hernández-Guerra M, Genescà J, Drilhon N, Ferreira CN, Reiberger T, Rodríguez M, Morillas RM, Crespo J, Trebicka J, Bañares R, Villanueva C, Berzigotti A, Primignani M, La Mura V, Riggio O, Schepis F, Verhelst X, Calleja JL, Bureau C, Albillos A, Nevens F, Hernández-Gea V, Tripathi D, Rautou PE, García-Pagán JC. Porto-sinusoidal vascular liver disorder with portal hypertension: Natural History and Long-Term Outcome. J Hepatol 2024:S0168-8278(24)02481-4. [PMID: 39181213 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2024.07.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2023] [Revised: 07/24/2024] [Accepted: 07/30/2024] [Indexed: 08/27/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Current knowledge of the natural history of patients with porto-sinusoidal vascular disorder (PSVD) is derived from small studies. The aim of the present study was to determine natural history and prognostic factors using a large multicenter cohort of PSVD patients. METHODS Retrospective multicentric study of PSVD patients and signs of portal hypertension (PH) prospectively registered in 27 centers. RESULTS 587 patients were included, median age of 47 years and 38% were women. Four-hundred and one patient had an associated condition, that was graded as severe in 157. Median follow-up was 68 months. At diagnosis, 64% of patients were asymptomatic while 36% had a PH-related complication: PH-related bleeding in 112 patients; ascites in 117 and hepatic encephalopathy in 11. In those not presenting with bleeding, the incidence of first bleeding was of 15% at 5 years, with a 5-year rebleeding rate of 18%. Five-year cumulative incidence of new or worsening ascites was of 18% and of developing PVT of 16%. Fifty (8.5%) patients received a liver transplantation and 109 (19%) died, including 55 non-liver related death. Transplant-free survival was 97%, and 83% at 1 and 5 years. Variables independently associated with transplant-free survival were age, ascites, serum bilirubin, albumin and creatinine levels at diagnosis and severe associated conditions. This allowed the creation of a Nomogram that accurately predicted prognosis. CONCLUSIONS Prognosis of PSVD is strongly determined by the severity of the associated underlying conditions and parameters of liver and renal function.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Magaz
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - Heloïse Giudicelli-Lett
- Université Paris-Cité, Inserm, Centre de recherche sur l'inflammation, UMR 1149, Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Beaujon, Service d'Hépatologie, DMU DIGEST, Centre de Référence des Maladies Vasculaires du Foie, FILFOIE, ERN RARE-LIVER, Clichy, France
| | - Juan G Abraldes
- Liver Unit, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Oana Nicoară-Farcău
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - Fanny Turon
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - Neil Rajoriya
- The Liver Unit, University Hospital Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Ashish Goel
- The Liver Unit, University Hospital Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Karlien Raymenants
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Sophie Hillaire
- Université Paris-Cité, Inserm, Centre de recherche sur l'inflammation, UMR 1149, Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Beaujon, Service d'Hépatologie, DMU DIGEST, Centre de Référence des Maladies Vasculaires du Foie, FILFOIE, ERN RARE-LIVER, Clichy, France
| | - Luis Téllez
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRYCIS, CIBERehd, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain
| | - Laure Elkrief
- Service d'Hépato-Gastroentérologie, Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève, Geneva, Switzerland. Service d'Hépato-Gastroentérologie, CHU de Tours, France; Université de Paris, Centre de recherche sur l'inflammation, Inserm, U1149, CNRS, ERL8252, F-75018 Paris, France
| | - Bogdan Procopet
- Regional Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology "Octavian Fodor", Hepatology Department and "Iuliu Hatieganu" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 3rd Medical Clinic, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Lara Orts
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - Filipe Nery
- Immuno-Physiology and Pharmacology Department, School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, University of Porto, Portugal
| | - Akash Shukla
- Seth GS Medical College and KEM Hospital, Sion, Mumbai, India
| | - Hélène Larrue
- Department of Hepatology, Rangueil Hospital, CHU Toulouse, University Paul Sabatier of Toulouse, France
| | - Helena Degroote
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Victoria Aguilera
- Liver Transplantation and Hepatology Unit, Hospital Universitari i Politécnic La Fe, Valencia, Spain; CIBERehd (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Valencia Spain), Instituto de Salud Carlos III
| | - Elba LLop
- Liver Unit, Hospital U, Puerta de Hierro. Universidad Autònoma de Madrid, CIBEREHD, IDIPHISA, Madrid, Spain
| | - Laura Turco
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Modena & Reggio Emilia and Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Modena, Italy
| | - Federica Indulti
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Modena & Reggio Emilia and Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Modena, Italy
| | - Stefania Gioia
- Department of Translational and Precision Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Giulia Tosetti
- Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Internal medicine -hemostasis and thrombosis, Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Niccolò Bitto
- Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Internal medicine -hemostasis and thrombosis, Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Chiara Becchetti
- Department of Visceral Surgery and Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital.University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Edilmar Alvarado
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology Hospital Sant Pau, Barcelona, Autonomous University, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Cristina Roig
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology Hospital Sant Pau, Barcelona, Autonomous University, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Raquel Diaz
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Gregorio Marañón Hospital, liSGM, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain; Facultad de Medicina. Universidad Complutense de Madrid
| | - Michael Praktiknjo
- Department of Internal Medicine I, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Anna-Lena Konicek
- Department of Internal Medicine I, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Pol Olivas
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - José Ignacio Fortea
- Liver Unit, Digestive Disease Department, Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander, Cantabria University, Spain
| | - Helena Masnou
- Liver Unit, University Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain; Centre for Biomedical Research in Liver and Digestive Diseases Network (CIBERehd)
| | - Ángela Puente
- Liver Unit, Digestive Disease Department, Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander, Cantabria University, Spain
| | - Alba Ardèvol
- Liver Unit, University Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain; Centre for Biomedical Research in Liver and Digestive Diseases Network (CIBERehd)
| | - Carmen A Navascués
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain
| | - Marta Romero-Gutiérrez
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Complejo Hospitalario Universitario de Toledo
| | - Bernhard Scheiner
- Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Georg Semmler
- Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Mattias Mandorfer
- Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Filipe Damião
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital de Santa Maria - Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Anna Baiges
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - Asunción Ojeda
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - Macarena Simón-Talero
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebrón, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute (VHIR), Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, CIBERehd, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carlos González-Alayón
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital Universitario de Canarias. Tenerife, Spain
| | - Alba Díaz
- Department of Histopathology, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), University of Barcelona, Barcelona
| | | | - Andrea De Gottardi
- Dept. of gastroenterology and hepatology, Cantonal Hospital Lucerne, University of Lucerne, Switzerland
| | - Manuel Hernández-Guerra
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital Universitario de Canarias. Tenerife, Spain
| | - Joan Genescà
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebrón, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute (VHIR), Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, CIBERehd, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Nicolas Drilhon
- Université Paris-Cité, Inserm, Centre de recherche sur l'inflammation, UMR 1149, Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Beaujon, Service d'Hépatologie, DMU DIGEST, Centre de Référence des Maladies Vasculaires du Foie, FILFOIE, ERN RARE-LIVER, Clichy, France
| | - Carlos Noronha Ferreira
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital de Santa Maria - Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Manuel Rodríguez
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain
| | - Rosa María Morillas
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain
| | - Javier Crespo
- Liver Unit, Digestive Disease Department, Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital, Santander, Cantabria University, Spain
| | - Jonel Trebicka
- Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine I, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany.European Foundation for Study of Chronic Liver Failure, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rafael Bañares
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Gregorio Marañón Hospital, liSGM, CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Càndid Villanueva
- Liver Unit, Department of Gastroenterology Hospital Sant Pau, Barcelona, Autonomous University, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Annalisa Berzigotti
- Department of Visceral Surgery and Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital.University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Massimo Primignani
- Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Internal medicine -hemostasis and thrombosis, Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Vincenzo La Mura
- Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Internal medicine -hemostasis and thrombosis, Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Oliviero Riggio
- Department of Translational and Precision Medicine, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Filippo Schepis
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Modena & Reggio Emilia and Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Modena, Italy
| | - Xavier Verhelst
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - José Luis Calleja
- Liver Unit, Hospital U, Puerta de Hierro. Universidad Autònoma de Madrid, CIBEREHD, IDIPHISA, Madrid, Spain
| | - Christophe Bureau
- Department of Hepatology, Rangueil Hospital, CHU Toulouse, University Paul Sabatier of Toulouse, France
| | - Agustín Albillos
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRYCIS, CIBERehd, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain
| | - Frederik Nevens
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Hospital KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Virginia Hernández-Gea
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona
| | - Dhiraj Tripathi
- The Liver Unit, University Hospital Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
| | - Pierre-Emmanuel Rautou
- Université Paris-Cité, Inserm, Centre de recherche sur l'inflammation, UMR 1149, Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Beaujon, Service d'Hépatologie, DMU DIGEST, Centre de Référence des Maladies Vasculaires du Foie, FILFOIE, ERN RARE-LIVER, Clichy, France
| | - Juan Carlos García-Pagán
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Laboratory, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Institut de Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS). CIBEREHD (Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas). Health Care Provider of the European Reference Network on Rare Liver Disorders (ERN RARE-Liver). Departament de Medicina i Ciències de la Salut. Universitat de Barcelona.
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5
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Ascher SB, Kravitz RL, Scherzer R, Berry JD, de Lemos JA, Estrella MM, Tancredi DJ, Killeen AA, Ix JH, Shlipak MG. Incorporating Individual-Level Treatment Effects and Outcome Preferences Into Personalized Blood Pressure Target Recommendations. J Am Heart Assoc 2024; 13:e033995. [PMID: 39136305 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.124.033995] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 08/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are no shared decision-making frameworks for selecting blood pressure (BP) targets for individuals with hypertension. This study addressed whether results from the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) could be tailored to individuals using predicted risks and simulated preferences. METHODS AND RESULTS Among 8202 SPRINT participants, Cox models were developed and internally validated to predict each individual's absolute difference in risk from intensive versus standard BP lowering for cardiovascular events, cognitive impairment, death, and serious adverse events (AEs). Individual treatment effects were combined using simulated preference weights into a net benefit, which represents a weighted sum of risk differences across outcomes. Net benefits were compared among those above versus below the median AE risk. In simulations for which cardiovascular, cognitive, and death events had much greater weight than the AEs of BP lowering, the median net benefit was 3.3 percentage points (interquartile range [IQR], 2.0-5.7), and 100% of participants had a net benefit favoring intensive BP lowering. When simulating benefits and harms to have similar weights, the median net benefit was 0.8 percentage points (IQR, 0.2-2.2), and 87% had a positive net benefit. Compared with participants at lower risk of AEs from BP lowering, those at higher risk had a greater net benefit from intensive BP lowering despite experiencing more AEs (P<0.001 in both simulations). CONCLUSIONS Most SPRINT participants had a predicted net benefit that favored intensive BP lowering, but the degree of net benefit varied considerably. Tailoring BP targets using each patient's risks and preferences may provide more refined BP target recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon B Ascher
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kidney Health Research Collaborative San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System and University of California San Francisco San Francisco CA
- Department of Internal Medicine University of California Davis Sacramento CA
| | - Richard L Kravitz
- Department of Internal Medicine University of California Davis Sacramento CA
| | - Rebecca Scherzer
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kidney Health Research Collaborative San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System and University of California San Francisco San Francisco CA
| | - Jarett D Berry
- Department of Internal Medicine University of Texas at Tyler Health Science Center Tyler TX
| | - James A de Lemos
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center Dallas TX
| | - Michelle M Estrella
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kidney Health Research Collaborative San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System and University of California San Francisco San Francisco CA
| | - Daniel J Tancredi
- Department of Pediatrics University of California Davis Sacramento CA
| | - Anthony A Killeen
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology University of Minnesota Minneapolis MN
| | - Joachim H Ix
- Division of Nephrology-Hypertension University of California San Diego La Jolla CA
- Nephrology Section, Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System San Diego CA
| | - Michael G Shlipak
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kidney Health Research Collaborative San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System and University of California San Francisco San Francisco CA
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6
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Radwan RE, Darwish A, Elsaid AM, El-Kholy WM. Exploring the potential of IL-10 for risk assessment and early intervention in pediatric ALL. BMC Cancer 2024; 24:972. [PMID: 39118076 PMCID: PMC11308622 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-024-12677-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2024] [Accepted: 07/23/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), a leading cause of childhood cancer, targets immune system B and T cells. While understanding its causes is crucial, predicting susceptibility holds immense power for early diagnosis and intervention. This study explored the potential of interleukin 10 (IL-10), a key immune regulator, as a predictive tool in Egyptian children. Investigating 100 ALL patients and 100 healthy controls, we analyzed the IL10 gene polymorphism (-1082 A/G) and serum levels. Strikingly, both the G allele and higher serum IL-10 levels were significantly associated with increased ALL risk (p < 0.05, OR > 1). Moreover, IL-10 emerged as a remarkably accurate predictor, boasting an AUC of 0.995, with a sensitivity of 97% and specificity of 96%. These findings unveil the potential of IL-10 as a powerful predictive tool for pediatric ALL in the studied Egyptian population. Identifying individuals with the GG/AG haplotype and elevated IL-10 levels could enable early intervention and potentially improve outcomes. While further validation in larger and more diverse populations is needed, this study paves the way for personalized risk assessment and potentially revolutionizes how we combat this childhood killer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roqaia E Radwan
- Physiology Section, Zoology Department, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt.
| | - Ahmad Darwish
- Hematology, Oncology and Bone Marrow Transplantation Unit, Pediatric Department, Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
| | - Afaf M Elsaid
- Genetics Unit, Children Hospital, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
| | - Wafaa M El-Kholy
- Physiology Section, Zoology Department, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
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7
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Pons M, Rivera-Esteban J, Ma MM, Davyduke T, Delamarre A, Hermabessière P, Dupuy J, Wong GLH, Yip TCF, Pennisi G, Tulone A, Cammà C, Petta S, de Lédinghen V, Wong VWS, Augustin S, Pericàs JM, Abraldes JG, Genescà J. Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2024; 22:1637-1645.e9. [PMID: 37573987 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2023.08.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Revised: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/02/2023] [Indexed: 08/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events. METHODS Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment. RESULTS The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model. CONCLUSIONS The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mònica Pons
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Jesús Rivera-Esteban
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mang M Ma
- Liver Unit, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Tracy Davyduke
- Liver Unit, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Adèle Delamarre
- Service d'Hepatologie et de Transplantation Hepatique, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Bordeaux et Bordeaux Institute of Oncology, Bordeaux, France; INSERM U1312, Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France
| | - Paul Hermabessière
- Service d'Hepatologie et de Transplantation Hepatique, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Bordeaux et Bordeaux Institute of Oncology, Bordeaux, France
| | - Julie Dupuy
- Service d'Hepatologie et de Transplantation Hepatique, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Bordeaux et Bordeaux Institute of Oncology, Bordeaux, France
| | - Grace Lai-Hung Wong
- State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip
- State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Grazia Pennisi
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Dipartimento Di Promozione Della Salute, Materno Infantile, Medicina Interna e Specialistica Di Eccellenza, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Adele Tulone
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Dipartimento Di Promozione Della Salute, Materno Infantile, Medicina Interna e Specialistica Di Eccellenza, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Calogero Cammà
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Dipartimento Di Promozione Della Salute, Materno Infantile, Medicina Interna e Specialistica Di Eccellenza, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Salvatore Petta
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Dipartimento Di Promozione Della Salute, Materno Infantile, Medicina Interna e Specialistica Di Eccellenza, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Victor de Lédinghen
- Service d'Hepatologie et de Transplantation Hepatique, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Bordeaux et Bordeaux Institute of Oncology, Bordeaux, France; INSERM U1312, Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France
| | - Vincent Wai-Sun Wong
- State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Salvador Augustin
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Juan Manuel Pericàs
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
| | - Juan G Abraldes
- Liver Unit, Division of Gastroenterology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Joan Genescà
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
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8
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Blythe R, Parsons R, Barnett AG, Cook D, McPhail SM, White NM. Prioritising deteriorating patients using time-to-event analysis: prediction model development and internal-external validation. Crit Care 2024; 28:247. [PMID: 39020419 PMCID: PMC11256441 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-024-05021-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2024] [Accepted: 07/05/2024] [Indexed: 07/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Binary classification models are frequently used to predict clinical deterioration, however they ignore information on the timing of events. An alternative is to apply time-to-event models, augmenting clinical workflows by ranking patients by predicted risks. This study examines how and why time-to-event modelling of vital signs data can help prioritise deterioration assessments using lift curves, and develops a prediction model to stratify acute care inpatients by risk of clinical deterioration. METHODS We developed and validated a Cox regression for time to in-hospital mortality. The model used time-varying covariates to estimate the risk of clinical deterioration. Adult inpatient medical records from 5 Australian hospitals between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2020 were used for model development and validation. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using internal-external cross validation. A discrete-time logistic regression model predicting death within 24 h with the same covariates was used as a comparator to the Cox regression model to estimate differences in predictive performance between the binary and time-to-event outcome modelling approaches. RESULTS Our data contained 150,342 admissions and 1016 deaths. Model discrimination was higher for Cox regression than for discrete-time logistic regression, with cross-validated AUCs of 0.96 and 0.93, respectively, for mortality predictions within 24 h, declining to 0.93 and 0.88, respectively, for mortality predictions within 1 week. Calibration plots showed that calibration varied by hospital, but this can be mitigated by ranking patients by predicted risks. CONCLUSION Time-varying covariate Cox models can be powerful tools for triaging patients, which may lead to more efficient and effective care in time-poor environments when the times between observations are highly variable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robin Blythe
- Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation and Centre for Healthcare Transformation, School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Ave, Kelvin Grove, Qld, 4059, Australia.
| | - Rex Parsons
- Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation and Centre for Healthcare Transformation, School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Ave, Kelvin Grove, Qld, 4059, Australia
| | - Adrian G Barnett
- Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation and Centre for Healthcare Transformation, School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Ave, Kelvin Grove, Qld, 4059, Australia
| | - David Cook
- Intensive Care Unit, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Metro South Health, Woolloongabba, 4102, Qld, Australia
| | - Steven M McPhail
- Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation and Centre for Healthcare Transformation, School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Ave, Kelvin Grove, Qld, 4059, Australia
- Digital Health and Informatics, Metro South Health, Woolloongabba, 4102, Qld, Australia
| | - Nicole M White
- Australian Centre for Health Services Innovation and Centre for Healthcare Transformation, School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, 60 Musk Ave, Kelvin Grove, Qld, 4059, Australia
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9
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Zhong X, Palin V, Ashcroft DM, Goldacre B, MacKenna B, Mehrkar A, Bacon SCJ, Massey J, Inglesby P, Hand K, Pate A, van Staa TP. Risk of emergency hospital admission related to adverse events after antibiotic treatment in adults with a common infection: impact of COVID-19 and derivation and validation of risk prediction models. BMC Med 2024; 22:277. [PMID: 38956603 PMCID: PMC11220965 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-024-03480-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 06/12/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND With the global challenge of antimicrobial resistance intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic, evaluating adverse events (AEs) post-antibiotic treatment for common infections is crucial. This study aims to examines the changes in incidence rates of AEs during the COVID-19 pandemic and predict AE risk following antibiotic prescriptions for common infections, considering their previous antibiotic exposure and other long-term clinical conditions. METHODS With the approval of NHS England, we used OpenSAFELY platform and analysed electronic health records from patients aged 18-110, prescribed antibiotics for urinary tract infection (UTI), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI), upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), sinusitis, otitis externa, and otitis media between January 2019 and June 2023. We evaluated the temporal trends in the incidence rate of AEs for each infection, analysing monthly changes over time. The survival probability of emergency AE hospitalisation was estimated in each COVID-19 period (period 1: 1 January 2019 to 25 March 2020, period 2: 26 March 2020 to 8 March 2021, period 3: 9 March 2021 to 30 June 2023) using the Kaplan-Meier approach. Prognostic models, using Cox proportional hazards regression, were developed and validated to predict AE risk within 30 days post-prescription using the records in Period 1. RESULTS Out of 9.4 million patients who received antibiotics, 0.6% of UTI, 0.3% of URTI, and 0.5% of LRTI patients experienced AEs. UTI and LRTI patients demonstrated a higher risk of AEs, with a noted increase in AE incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher comorbidity and recent antibiotic use emerged as significant AE predictors. The developed models exhibited good calibration and discrimination, especially for UTIs and LRTIs, with a C-statistic above 0.70. CONCLUSIONS The study reveals a variable incidence of AEs post-antibiotic treatment for common infections, with UTI and LRTI patients facing higher risks. AE risks varied between infections and COVID-19 periods. These findings underscore the necessity for cautious antibiotic prescribing and call for further exploration into the intricate dynamics between antibiotic use, AEs, and the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaomin Zhong
- Centre for Health Informatics, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine, and Health, the University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.
- Applied Health Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK.
| | - Victoria Palin
- Centre for Health Informatics, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine, and Health, the University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
- Maternal and Fetal Research Centre, Division of Developmental Biology and Medicine, the University of Manchester, St Marys Hospital, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9WL, UK
| | - Darren M Ashcroft
- Centre for Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
- NIHR Greater Manchester Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
| | - Ben Goldacre
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
| | - Brian MacKenna
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
- NHS England, Wellington House, Waterloo Road, London, SE1 8UG, UK
| | - Amir Mehrkar
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
| | - Sebastian C J Bacon
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
| | - Jon Massey
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
| | - Peter Inglesby
- Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK
| | - Kieran Hand
- Pharmacy Department, Portsmouth Hospitals University NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
- NHS England, Wellington House, Waterloo Road, London, SE1 8UG, UK
| | - Alexander Pate
- Centre for Health Informatics, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine, and Health, the University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
| | - Tjeerd Pieter van Staa
- Centre for Health Informatics, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine, and Health, the University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
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10
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Semmler G, Alonso López S, Pons M, Lens S, Dajti E, Griemsmann M, Zanetto A, Burghart L, Hametner-Schreil S, Hartl L, Manzano M, Rodriguez-Tajes S, Zanaga P, Schwarz M, Gutierrez ML, Jachs M, Pocurull A, Polo B, Ecker D, Mateos B, Izquierdo S, Real Y, Ahumada A, Bauer DJM, Mauz JB, Casanova-Cabral M, Gschwantler M, Russo FP, Azzaroli F, Maasoumy B, Reiberger T, Forns X, Genesca J, Bañares R, Mandorfer M. Post-treatment LSM rather than change during treatment predicts decompensation in patients with cACLD after HCV cure. J Hepatol 2024; 81:76-83. [PMID: 38521170 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2024.03.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Revised: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 03/04/2024] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Baveno VII has defined a clinically significant (i.e., prognostically meaningful) decrease in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in cACLD as a decrease of ≥20% associated with a final LSM <20 kPa or any decrease to <10 kPa. However, these rules have not yet been validated against direct clinical endpoints. METHODS We retrospectively analysed patients with cACLD (LSM ≥10 kPa) with paired liver stiffness measurement (LSM) before (BL) and after (FU) HCV cure by interferon-free therapies from 15 European centres. The cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation was compared according to these criteria, considering hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing risks. RESULTS A total of 2,335 patients followed for a median of 6 years were analysed. Median BL-LSM was 16.6 kPa with 37.1% having ≥20 kPa. After HCV cure, FU-LSM decreased to a median of 10.9 kPa (<10 kPa: 1,002 [42.9%], ≥20 kPa: 465 [19.9%]) translating into a median LSM change of -5.3 (-8.8 to -2.4) kPa corresponding to -33.9 (-48.0 to -15.9) %. Patients achieving a clinically significant decrease (65.4%) had a significantly lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35, p <0.001). However, these risk differences were primarily driven by a negligible risk in patients with FU-LSM <10 kPa (5-year cumulative incidence: 0.3%) compared to a high risk in patients with FU-LSM ≥20 kPa (16.6%). Patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa (37.4%) also had a low risk of hepatic decompensation (5-year cumulative incidence: 1.7%), and importantly, the risk of hepatic decompensation did not differ between those with/without an LSM decrease of ≥20% (p = 0.550). CONCLUSIONS FU-LSM is key for risk stratification after HCV cure and should guide clinical decision making. LSM dynamics do not hold significant prognostic information in patients with FU-LSM 10-19.9 kPa, and thus, their consideration is not of sufficient incremental value in the specific context of HCV cure. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is increasingly applied as a prognostic biomarker and commonly decreases in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure. Although Baveno VII proposed criteria for a clinically significant decrease, little is known about the prognostic utility of LSM dynamics (changes through antiviral therapy). Interestingly, in those with a post-treatment LSM of 10-19.9 kPa, LSM dynamics did not provide incremental information, arguing against the consideration of LSM dynamics as prognostic criteria. Thus, post-treatment LSM should guide the management of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease achieving HCV cure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georg Semmler
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Sonia Alonso López
- Liver Unit, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain; Instituto De Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón (IiSGM), Madrid, Spain; Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Monica Pons
- Liver Unit, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital, Vall d'Hebron Institut of Research (VHIR), Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sabela Lens
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, IDIBAPS, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Elton Dajti
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Italy; IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, European Reference Network on Hepatological Diseases (ERN RARE-LIVER), Bologna, Italy
| | - Marie Griemsmann
- Hannover Medical School, Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Infectious diseases and Endocrinology, Hannover, Germany
| | - Alberto Zanetto
- Gastroenterology and Multivisceral Transplant Unit, Department of Surgery, Oncology, and Gastroenterology, Padua University Hospital, Padua, Italy
| | - Lukas Burghart
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Internal Medicine IV, Klinik Ottakring, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Lukas Hartl
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Marisa Manzano
- Liver Unit, Hospital Universitario 12 De Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - Sergio Rodriguez-Tajes
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, IDIBAPS, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Paola Zanaga
- Gastroenterology and Multivisceral Transplant Unit, Department of Surgery, Oncology, and Gastroenterology, Padua University Hospital, Padua, Italy
| | - Michael Schwarz
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Internal Medicine IV, Klinik Ottakring, Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Mathias Jachs
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Anna Pocurull
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, IDIBAPS, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Benjamín Polo
- Gastroenterology Unit, Hospital Universitario Fundación Jimenez Díaz, Madrid, Spain
| | - Dominik Ecker
- Department of Internal Medicine IV, Ordensklinikum Linz Barmherzige Schwestern, Linz, Austria
| | - Beatriz Mateos
- Liver Unit, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain
| | - Sonia Izquierdo
- Gastroenterology Unit, Hospital Universitario Clínico San Carlos, Madrid, Spain
| | - Yolanda Real
- Gastroenterology Unit, Hospital Universitario La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
| | - Adriana Ahumada
- Liver Unit, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - David Josef Maria Bauer
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Department of Internal Medicine IV, Klinik Ottakring, Vienna, Austria
| | - Jim Benjamin Mauz
- Hannover Medical School, Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Infectious diseases and Endocrinology, Hannover, Germany
| | | | | | - Francesco Paolo Russo
- Gastroenterology and Multivisceral Transplant Unit, Department of Surgery, Oncology, and Gastroenterology, Padua University Hospital, Padua, Italy
| | - Francesco Azzaroli
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences (DIMEC), University of Bologna, Italy; IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, European Reference Network on Hepatological Diseases (ERN RARE-LIVER), Bologna, Italy
| | - Benjamin Maasoumy
- Hannover Medical School, Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Infectious diseases and Endocrinology, Hannover, Germany
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Xavier Forns
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, IDIBAPS, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Genesca
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Liver Unit, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital, Vall d'Hebron Institut of Research (VHIR), Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rafael Bañares
- Liver Unit, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain; Instituto De Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón (IiSGM), Madrid, Spain; Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Mattias Mandorfer
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
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11
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Dawson LP, Carrington MJ, Haregu T, Nanayakkara S, Jennings G, Dart A, Stub D, Inouye M, Kaye D. Ten-Year Risk Equations for Incident Heart Failure in Established Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Populations. J Am Heart Assoc 2024; 13:e034254. [PMID: 38780153 PMCID: PMC11255645 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.124.034254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ten-year risk equations for incident heart failure (HF) are available for the general population, but not for patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is highly prevalent in HF cohorts. This study aimed to develop and validate 10-year risk equations for incident HF in patients with known ASCVD. METHODS AND RESULTS Ten-year risk equations for incident HF were developed using the United Kingdom Biobank cohort (recruitment 2006-2010) including participants with established ASCVD but free from HF at baseline. Model performance was validated using the Australian Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute Biobank cohort (recruitment 2000-2011) and compared with the performance of general population risk models. Incident HF occurred in 13.7% of the development cohort (n=31 446, median 63 years, 35% women, follow-up 10.7±2.7 years) and in 21.3% of the validation cohort (n=1659, median age 65 years, 25% women, follow-up 9.4±3.7 years). Predictors of HF included in the sex-specific models were age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (treated or untreated), glucose (treated or untreated), cholesterol, smoking status, QRS duration, kidney disease, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation. ASCVD-HF equations had good discrimination and calibration in development and validation cohorts, with superior performance to general population risk equations. CONCLUSIONS ASCVD-specific 10-year risk equations for HF outperform general population risk models in individuals with established ASCVD. The ASCVD-HF equations can be calculated from readily available clinical data and could facilitate screening and preventative treatment decisions in this high-risk group.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke P. Dawson
- Department of CardiologyThe Alfred HospitalMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Faculty of MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | | | - Tilahun Haregu
- Department of CardiologyThe Alfred HospitalMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Shane Nanayakkara
- Department of CardiologyThe Alfred HospitalMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Garry Jennings
- Department of CardiologyThe Alfred HospitalMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Faculty of MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Anthony Dart
- Department of CardiologyThe Alfred HospitalMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Dion Stub
- Department of CardiologyThe Alfred HospitalMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Faculty of MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Michael Inouye
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Department of Public Health & Primary CareUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
| | - David Kaye
- Department of CardiologyThe Alfred HospitalMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Faculty of MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Baker Heart and Diabetes InstituteMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
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12
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Ivanova M, Pescia C, Trapani D, Venetis K, Frascarelli C, Mane E, Cursano G, Sajjadi E, Scatena C, Cerbelli B, d’Amati G, Porta FM, Guerini-Rocco E, Criscitiello C, Curigliano G, Fusco N. Early Breast Cancer Risk Assessment: Integrating Histopathology with Artificial Intelligence. Cancers (Basel) 2024; 16:1981. [PMID: 38893102 PMCID: PMC11171409 DOI: 10.3390/cancers16111981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2024] [Revised: 05/13/2024] [Accepted: 05/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Effective risk assessment in early breast cancer is essential for informed clinical decision-making, yet consensus on defining risk categories remains challenging. This paper explores evolving approaches in risk stratification, encompassing histopathological, immunohistochemical, and molecular biomarkers alongside cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Leveraging machine learning, deep learning, and convolutional neural networks, AI is reshaping predictive algorithms for recurrence risk, thereby revolutionizing diagnostic accuracy and treatment planning. Beyond detection, AI applications extend to histological subtyping, grading, lymph node assessment, and molecular feature identification, fostering personalized therapy decisions. With rising cancer rates, it is crucial to implement AI to accelerate breakthroughs in clinical practice, benefiting both patients and healthcare providers. However, it is important to recognize that while AI offers powerful automation and analysis tools, it lacks the nuanced understanding, clinical context, and ethical considerations inherent to human pathologists in patient care. Hence, the successful integration of AI into clinical practice demands collaborative efforts between medical experts and computational pathologists to optimize patient outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariia Ivanova
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
| | - Carlo Pescia
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
| | - Dario Trapani
- Division of New Drugs and Early Drug Development for Innovative Therapies, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (D.T.); (C.C.); (G.C.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
| | - Konstantinos Venetis
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
| | - Chiara Frascarelli
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
| | - Eltjona Mane
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
| | - Giulia Cursano
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
| | - Elham Sajjadi
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
| | - Cristian Scatena
- Department of Translational Research and New Technologies in Medicine and Surgery, University of Pisa, 56126 Pisa, Italy;
| | - Bruna Cerbelli
- Department of Medical-Surgical Sciences and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Rome, Italy;
| | - Giulia d’Amati
- Department of Radiological, Oncological and Pathological Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Rome, Italy;
| | - Francesca Maria Porta
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
| | - Elena Guerini-Rocco
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
| | - Carmen Criscitiello
- Division of New Drugs and Early Drug Development for Innovative Therapies, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (D.T.); (C.C.); (G.C.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Curigliano
- Division of New Drugs and Early Drug Development for Innovative Therapies, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (D.T.); (C.C.); (G.C.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
| | - Nicola Fusco
- Division of Pathology, European Institute of Oncology IRCCS, 20141 Milan, Italy; (M.I.); (C.P.); (K.V.); (C.F.); (E.M.); (G.C.); (E.S.); (F.M.P.); (E.G.-R.)
- Department of Oncology and Hemato-Oncology, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
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13
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Rentroia-Pacheco B, Bellomo D, Lakeman IMM, Wakkee M, Hollestein LM, van Klaveren D. Weighted metrics are required when evaluating the performance of prediction models in nested case-control studies. BMC Med Res Methodol 2024; 24:115. [PMID: 38760688 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02213-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Nested case-control (NCC) designs are efficient for developing and validating prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain predictors, especially when the outcome is rare. Previous research has focused on how to develop prediction models in this sampling design, but little attention has been given to model validation in this context. We therefore aimed to systematically characterize the key elements for the correct evaluation of the performance of prediction models in NCC data. METHODS We proposed how to correctly evaluate prediction models in NCC data, by adjusting performance metrics with sampling weights to account for the NCC sampling. We included in this study the C-index, threshold-based metrics, Observed-to-expected events ratio (O/E ratio), calibration slope, and decision curve analysis. We illustrated the proposed metrics with a validation of the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA version 5) in data from the population-based Rotterdam study. We compared the metrics obtained in the full cohort with those obtained in NCC datasets sampled from the Rotterdam study, with and without a matched design. RESULTS Performance metrics without weight adjustment were biased: the unweighted C-index in NCC datasets was 0.61 (0.58-0.63) for the unmatched design, while the C-index in the full cohort and the weighted C-index in the NCC datasets were similar: 0.65 (0.62-0.69) and 0.65 (0.61-0.69), respectively. The unweighted O/E ratio was 18.38 (17.67-19.06) in the NCC datasets, while it was 1.69 (1.42-1.93) in the full cohort and its weighted version in the NCC datasets was 1.68 (1.53-1.84). Similarly, weighted adjustments of threshold-based metrics and net benefit for decision curves were unbiased estimates of the corresponding metrics in the full cohort, while the corresponding unweighted metrics were biased. In the matched design, the bias of the unweighted metrics was larger, but it could also be compensated by the weight adjustment. CONCLUSIONS Nested case-control studies are an efficient solution for evaluating the performance of prediction models that use expensive or difficult-to-obtain biomarkers, especially when the outcome is rare, but the performance metrics need to be adjusted to the sampling procedure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Rentroia-Pacheco
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus Medical Center Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Dr. Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, 3015 GD, The Netherlands.
| | | | - Inge M M Lakeman
- Department of Human Genetics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of Clinical Genetics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Marlies Wakkee
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus Medical Center Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Dr. Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, 3015 GD, The Netherlands
| | - Loes M Hollestein
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus Medical Center Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Dr. Molewaterplein 40, Rotterdam, 3015 GD, The Netherlands
- Department of Research, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL), Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - David van Klaveren
- Department of Public Health, Center for Medical Decision Making, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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14
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Ahmed K, Sheikh A, Fatima S, Ghulam T, Haider G, Abbas F, Sarria-Santamera A, Ghias K, Mughal N, Abidi SH. Differential analysis of histopathological and genetic markers of cancer aggressiveness, and survival difference in EBV-positive and EBV-negative prostate carcinoma. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10315. [PMID: 38705879 PMCID: PMC11070424 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60538-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Several studies have shown an association between prostate carcinoma (PCa) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV); however, none of the studies so far have identified the histopathological and genetic markers of cancer aggressiveness associated with EBV in PCa tissues. In this study, we used previously characterized EBV-PCR-positive (n = 39) and EBV-negative (n = 60) PCa tissues to perform an IHC-based assessment of key histopathological and molecular markers of PCa aggressiveness (EMT markers, AR expression, perineural invasion, and lymphocytic infiltration characterization). Additionally, we investigated the differential expression of key oncogenes, EMT-associated genes, and PCa-specific oncomiRs, in EBV-positive and -negative tissues, using the qPCR array. Finally, survival benefit analysis was also performed in EBV-positive and EBV-negative PCa patients. The EBV-positive PCa exhibited a higher percentage (80%) of perineural invasion (PNI) compared to EBV-negative PCa (67.3%) samples. Similarly, a higher lymphocytic infiltration was observed in EBV-LMP1-positive PCa samples. The subset characterization of T and B cell lymphocytic infiltration showed a trend of higher intratumoral and tumor stromal lymphocytic infiltration in EBV-negative tissues compared with EBV-positive tissues. The logistic regression analysis showed that EBV-positive status was associated with decreased odds (OR = 0.07; p-value < 0.019) of CD3 intratumoral lymphocytic infiltration in PCa tissues. The analysis of IHC-based expression patterns of EMT markers showed comparable expression of all EMT markers, except vimentin, which showed higher expression in EBV-positive PCa tissues compared to EBV-negative PCa tissues. Furthermore, gene expression analysis showed a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) in the expression of CDH1, AR, CHEK-2, CDKN-1B, and CDC-20 and oncomiRs miR-126, miR-152-3p, miR-452, miR-145-3p, miR-196a, miR-183-3p, and miR-146b in EBV-positive PCa tissues compared to EBV-negative PCa tissues. Overall, the survival proportion was comparable in both groups. The presence of EBV in the PCa tissues results in an increased expression of certain oncogenes, oncomiRs, and EMT marker (vimentin) and a decrease in CD3 ITL, which may be associated with the aggressive forms of PCa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khalid Ahmed
- Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Alisalman Sheikh
- Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Saira Fatima
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Tahira Ghulam
- Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Ghulam Haider
- Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Farhat Abbas
- Department of Surgery, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Kulsoom Ghias
- Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Nouman Mughal
- Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
- Department of Surgery, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
| | - Syed Hani Abidi
- Department of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Nazarbayev University School of Medicine, Astana, Kazakhstan.
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15
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Keogh RH, Van Geloven N. Prediction Under Interventions: Evaluation of Counterfactual Performance Using Longitudinal Observational Data. Epidemiology 2024; 35:329-339. [PMID: 38630508 PMCID: PMC11332371 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001713] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to medical decision-making. However, evaluating the predictive performance of interventional predictions is challenging. Standard ways of evaluating predictive performance do not apply when using observational data, because prediction under interventions involves obtaining predictions of the outcome under conditions that are different from those that are observed for a subset of individuals in the validation dataset. This work describes methods for evaluating counterfactual performance of predictions under interventions for time-to-event outcomes. This means we aim to assess how well predictions would match the validation data if all individuals had followed the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We focus on counterfactual performance evaluation using longitudinal observational data, and under treatment strategies that involve sustaining a particular treatment regime over time. We introduce an estimation approach using artificial censoring and inverse probability weighting that involves creating a validation dataset mimicking the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We extend measures of calibration, discrimination (c-index and cumulative/dynamic AUCt) and overall prediction error (Brier score) to allow assessment of counterfactual performance. The methods are evaluated using a simulation study, including scenarios in which the methods should detect poor performance. Applying our methods in the context of liver transplantation shows that our procedure allows quantification of the performance of predictions supporting crucial decisions on organ allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruth H. Keogh
- From the Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nan Van Geloven
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
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16
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Yan Y, Lu H, Lin S, Zheng Y. Reproductive factors and risk of cardiovascular diseases and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in American women: NHANES 2003-2018. BMC Womens Health 2024; 24:222. [PMID: 38581038 PMCID: PMC10996084 DOI: 10.1186/s12905-024-03055-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The evidence regarding the association of reproductive factors with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is limited. AIMS To investigate the relationship of reproductive factors with the risk of CVDs, as well as all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. METHODS This study included 16,404 adults with reproductive factors from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and followed up until 31 December 2019. Logistic models and restricted cubic spline models were used to assess the association of reproductive factors with CVDs. COX proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline models, with adjustment for potential confounding, were employed to analyze the relation between reproductive factors and cardiovascular and all-cause death. RESULTS There is a nonlinear relationship between age at menarche and CVDs. Age at menopause ≤ 11(OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.10-1.69) was associated with an increased risk of CVDs compared to ages 12-13 years. Age at Menopause ≤ 44 (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.40-2.03) was associated with increased CVDs compared to age 35-49 years. Number of pregnancies ≥ 5(OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.55) was associated with an increased risk of CVDs compared to one pregnancy. In continuous variable COX regression models, a later age at menopause (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99) and a longer reproductive lifespan (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99) were associated with a decreased risk of all-cause death. A later age at menopause (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99) and a longer reproductive lifespan (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99) were associated with a decreased risk of cardiac death. CONCLUSIONS Female reproductive factors are significant risk factors for CVDs American women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yufeng Yan
- Department of Cardiology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, No. 68 Changle road, Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210008, China
| | - Hongjing Lu
- Department of Cardiology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, No. 68 Changle road, Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210008, China
| | - Song Lin
- Department of Cardiology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, No. 68 Changle road, Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210008, China.
| | - Yaguo Zheng
- Department of Cardiology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, No. 68 Changle road, Qinhuai District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210008, China.
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17
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DelRocco NJ, Loh ML, Borowitz MJ, Gupta S, Rabin KR, Zweidler-McKay P, Maloney KW, Mattano LA, Larsen E, Angiolillo A, Schore RJ, Burke MJ, Salzer WL, Wood BL, Carroll AJ, Heerema NA, Reshmi SC, Gastier-Foster JM, Harvey R, Chen IM, Roberts KG, Mullighan CG, Willman C, Winick N, Carroll WL, Rau RE, Teachey DT, Hunger SP, Raetz EA, Devidas M, Kairalla JA. Enhanced Risk Stratification for Children and Young Adults with B-Cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia: A Children's Oncology Group Report. Leukemia 2024; 38:720-728. [PMID: 38360863 PMCID: PMC10997503 DOI: 10.1038/s41375-024-02166-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024]
Abstract
Current strategies to treat pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia rely on risk stratification algorithms using categorical data. We investigated whether using continuous variables assigned different weights would improve risk stratification. We developed and validated a multivariable Cox model for relapse-free survival (RFS) using information from 21199 patients. We constructed risk groups by identifying cutoffs of the COG Prognostic Index (PICOG) that maximized discrimination of the predictive model. Patients with higher PICOG have higher predicted relapse risk. The PICOG reliably discriminates patients with low vs. high relapse risk. For those with moderate relapse risk using current COG risk classification, the PICOG identifies subgroups with varying 5-year RFS. Among current COG standard-risk average patients, PICOG identifies low and intermediate risk groups with 96% and 90% RFS, respectively. Similarly, amongst current COG high-risk patients, PICOG identifies four groups ranging from 96% to 66% RFS, providing additional discrimination for future treatment stratification. When coupled with traditional algorithms, the novel PICOG can more accurately risk stratify patients, identifying groups with better outcomes who may benefit from less intensive therapy, and those who have high relapse risk needing innovative approaches for cure.
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Affiliation(s)
- N J DelRocco
- Department of Biostatistics, Colleges of Medicine, Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
| | - M L Loh
- Department of Pediatrics and the Ben Towne Center for Childhood Cancer Research, Seattle Children's Hospital, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - M J Borowitz
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - S Gupta
- Division of Haematology/Oncology, Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - K R Rabin
- Division of Pediatric Hematology/Oncology, Texas Children's Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | - K W Maloney
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Colorado and Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA
| | | | - E Larsen
- Department of Pediatrics, Maine Children's Cancer Program, Scarborough, ME, USA
| | | | - R J Schore
- Division of Pediatric Oncology, Children's National Hospital, Washington, DC and the George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Washington, DC, USA
| | - M J Burke
- Division of Pediatric Hematology-Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA
| | - W L Salzer
- Uniformed Services University, F. Edward Hebert School of Medicine, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - B L Wood
- Children's Hospital Los Angeles, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - A J Carroll
- Department of Genetics, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - N A Heerema
- Department of Pathology, The Ohio State University Wexner School of Medicine, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - S C Reshmi
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Nationwide Children's Hospital and Departments of Pathology and Pediatrics, Ohio State University College of Medicine, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - J M Gastier-Foster
- Department of Pathology, The Ohio State University Wexner School of Medicine, Columbus, OH, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Texas Children's Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - R Harvey
- University of New Mexico Cancer Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - I M Chen
- University of New Mexico Cancer Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - K G Roberts
- Department of Pathology, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA
| | - C G Mullighan
- Department of Pathology, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA
| | - C Willman
- Mayo Clinic, Cancer Center/Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Rochester, NY, USA
| | - N Winick
- UTSouthwestern, Simmons Cancer Center, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - W L Carroll
- Perlmutter Cancer Center and Department of Pediatrics, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - R E Rau
- Department of Pediatrics and the Ben Towne Center for Childhood Cancer Research, Seattle Children's Hospital, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - D T Teachey
- Department of Pediatrics and The Center for Childhood Cancer Research, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and the Perelman School of Medicine at The University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - S P Hunger
- Department of Pediatrics and The Center for Childhood Cancer Research, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and the Perelman School of Medicine at The University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - E A Raetz
- Perlmutter Cancer Center and Department of Pediatrics, NYU Langone Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - M Devidas
- Department of Global Pediatric Medicine, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA
| | - J A Kairalla
- Department of Biostatistics, Colleges of Medicine, Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
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McCoy RG, Swarna KS, Deng Y, Herrin JS, Ross JS, Kent DM, Borah BJ, Crown WH, Montori VM, Umpierrez GE, Galindo RJ, Brito JP, Mickelson MM, Polley EC. Derivation of an Annualized Claims-Based Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event Estimator in Type 2 Diabetes. JACC. ADVANCES 2024; 3:100852. [PMID: 38939660 PMCID: PMC11198625 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacadv.2024.100852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2023] [Revised: 11/07/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2024]
Abstract
Background Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among adults with type 2 diabetes. Currently, available MACE prediction models have important limitations, including reliance on data that may not be routinely available, narrow focus on primary prevention, limited patient populations, and longtime horizons for risk prediction. Objectives The purpose of this study was to derive and internally validate a claims-based prediction model for 1-year risk of MACE in type 2 diabetes. Methods Using medical and pharmacy claims for adults with type 2 diabetes enrolled in commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicare fee-for-service plans between 2014 and 2021, we derived and internally validated the annualized claims-based MACE estimator (ACME) model to predict the risk of MACE (nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and all-cause mortality). The Cox proportional hazards model was composed of 30 covariates, including patient age, sex, comorbidities, and medications. Results The study cohort comprised 6,623,526 adults with type 2 diabetes, mean age 68.1 ± 10.6 years, 49.8% women, and 73.0% Non-Hispanic White. ACME had a concordance index of 0.74 (validation index range: 0.739-0.741). The predicted 1-year risk of the study cohort ranged from 0.4% to 99.9%, with a median risk of 3.4% (IQR: 2.3%-6.5%). Conclusions ACME was derived in a large usual care population, relies on routinely available data, and estimates short-term MACE risk. It can support population risk stratification at the health system and payer levels, participant identification for decentralized clinical trials of cardiovascular disease, and risk-stratified observational studies using real-world data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rozalina G. McCoy
- Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, & Nutrition, Department of Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- University of Maryland Institute for Health Computing, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Division of Gerontology, Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- OptumLabs, Eden Prairie, Minnesota, USA
| | - Kavya Sindhu Swarna
- OptumLabs, Eden Prairie, Minnesota, USA
- Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Yihong Deng
- OptumLabs, Eden Prairie, Minnesota, USA
- Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Jeph S. Herrin
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Joseph S. Ross
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - David M. Kent
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Bijan J. Borah
- Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - William H. Crown
- Florence Heller Graduate School, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Victor M. Montori
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
- Knowledge and Evaluation Research Unit, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Guillermo E. Umpierrez
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Rodolfo J. Galindo
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Juan P. Brito
- Division of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
- Knowledge and Evaluation Research Unit, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Mindy M. Mickelson
- Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Eric C. Polley
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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19
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Xia M, An J, Safford MM, Colantonio LD, Sims M, Reynolds K, Moran AE, Zhang Y. Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Social Determinants of Health at Individual and Area Levels. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e248584. [PMID: 38669015 PMCID: PMC11053380 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.8584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/28/2024] [Indexed: 04/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Importance The benefit of adding social determinants of health (SDOH) when estimating atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is unclear. Objective To examine the association of SDOH at both individual and area levels with ASCVD risks, and to assess if adding individual- and area-level SDOH to the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) or the Predicting Risk of CVD Events (PREVENT) equations improves the accuracy of risk estimates. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study included participants data from 4 large US cohort studies. Eligible participants were aged 40 to 79 years without a history of ASCVD. Baseline data were collected from 1995 to 2007; median (IQR) follow-up was 13.0 (9.3-15.0) years. Data were analyzed from September 2023 to February 2024. Exposures Individual- and area-level education, income, and employment status. Main outcomes and measures ASCVD was defined as the composite outcome of nonfatal myocardial infarction, death from coronary heart disease, and fatal or nonfatal stroke. Results A total of 26 316 participants were included (mean [SD] age, 61.0 [9.1] years; 15 494 women [58.9%]; 11 365 Black [43.2%], 703 Chinese American [2.7%], 1278 Hispanic [4.9%], and 12 970 White [49.3%]); 11 764 individuals (44.7%) had at least 1 adverse individual-level SDOH and 10 908 (41.5%) had at least 1 adverse area-level SDOH. A total of 2673 ASCVD events occurred during follow-up. SDOH were associated with increased risk of ASCVD at both the individual and area levels, including for low education (individual: hazard ratio [HR], 1.39 [95% CI, 1.25-1.55]; area: HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.20-1.42]), low income (individual: 1.35 [95% CI, 1.25-1.47]; area: HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.17-1.40]), and unemployment (individual: HR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.24-2.10]; area: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.14-1.37]). Adding area-level SDOH alone to the PCEs did not change model discrimination but modestly improved calibration. Furthermore, adding both individual- and area-level SDOH to the PCEs led to a modest improvement in both discrimination and calibration in non-Hispanic Black individuals (change in C index, 0.0051 [95% CI, 0.0011 to 0.0126]; change in scaled integrated Brier score [IBS], 0.396% [95% CI, 0.221% to 0.802%]), and improvement in calibration in White individuals (change in scaled IBS, 0.274% [95% CI, 0.095% to 0.665%]). Adding individual-level SDOH to the PREVENT plus area-level social deprivation index (SDI) equations did not improve discrimination but modestly improved calibration in White participants (change in scaled IBS, 0.182% [95% CI, 0.040% to 0.496%]), Black participants (0.187% [95% CI, 0.039% to 0.501%]), and women (0.289% [95% CI, 0.115% to 0.574%]). Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study, both individual- and area-level SDOH were associated with ASCVD risk; adding both individual- and area-level SDOH to the PCEs modestly improved discrimination and calibration for estimating ASCVD risk for Black individuals, and adding individual-level SDOH to PREVENT plus SDI also modestly improved calibration. These findings suggest that both individual- and area-level SDOH may be considered in future development of ASCVD risk assessment tools, particularly among Black individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengying Xia
- Division of General Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York
| | - Jaejin An
- Department of Research & Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena
- Department of Health Systems Science, Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. Tyson School of Medicine, Pasadena, California
| | - Monika M. Safford
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, New York
| | | | - Mario Sims
- Department of Social Medicine, Population, and Public Health, University of California, Riverside
| | - Kristi Reynolds
- Department of Research & Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena
- Department of Health Systems Science, Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. Tyson School of Medicine, Pasadena, California
| | - Andrew E. Moran
- Division of General Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York
| | - Yiyi Zhang
- Division of General Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York
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20
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Igland J, Forster R, Jenum AK, Strandberg RB, Berg TJ, Røssberg JI, Iversen MM, Buhl ES. How valid is a prescription-based multimorbidity index (Rx-risk) in predicting mortality in the Outcomes and Multimorbidity In Type 2 diabetes (OMIT) study? A nation-wide registry-based cohort study from Norway. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e077027. [PMID: 38548358 PMCID: PMC10982738 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/02/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The prescription-based Rx-risk index has previously been developed to measure multimorbidity. We aimed to adapt and evaluate the validity of the Rx-risk index in prediction of mortality among persons with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN Registry-based study. SETTING Adults with type 2 diabetes in Norway identified within the 'Outcomes and Multimorbidity In Type 2 diabetes' cohort, with linkage to prescriptions from the Norwegian Prescription Database and mortality from the Population Registry. PARTICIPANTS We defined a calibration sample of 42 290 adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes 1950-2013, and a temporal validation sample of 7085 adults diagnosed 2014-2016 to evaluate the index validity over time PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality METHODS: For the calibration sample, dispensed drug prescriptions in 2013 were used to define 44 morbidity categories. Weights were estimated using regression coefficients from a Cox regression model with 5 year mortality as the outcome and all morbidity categories, age and sex included as covariates. The Rx-risk index was computed as a weighted sum of morbidities. The validity of the index was evaluated using C-statistic and calibration plots. RESULTS In the calibration sample, mean (SD) age at start of follow-up and duration of diabetes was 63.8 (12.4) and 10.1 (7.0) years, respectively. The overall C-statistic was 0.82 and varied from 0.74 to 0.85 when stratifying on age groups, sex, level of education and country of origin. In the validation sample, mean (SD) age and duration of diabetes was 59.7 (13.0) and 2.0 (0.8) years, respectively. Despite younger age, shorter duration of diabetes and later time period, the C-index was high both in the total sample (0.84) and separately for men (0.83) and women (0.84). CONCLUSIONS The Rx-risk index showed good discrimination and calibration in predicting mortality and thus presents a valid tool to assess multimorbidity among persons with type 2 diabetes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jannicke Igland
- Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Department of Health and Caring Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Hordaland, Norway
| | - Rachel Forster
- Department of Health and Caring Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Hordaland, Norway
- Department of Health Registry Research and Development, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Anne Karen Jenum
- Department of General Practice, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Ragnhild B Strandberg
- Department of Health and Caring Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Hordaland, Norway
| | - Tore Julsrud Berg
- Department of Endocrinology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Jan Ivar Røssberg
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Division of Mental Health and Addiction, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Marjolein Memelink Iversen
- Department of Health and Caring Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Bergen, Hordaland, Norway
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21
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Jiang C, Chao CC, Li J, Ge X, Shen A, Jucaud V, Cheng C, Shen X. Tissue-resident memory T cell signatures from single-cell analysis associated with better melanoma prognosis. iScience 2024; 27:109277. [PMID: 38455971 PMCID: PMC10918229 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2023] [Revised: 01/05/2024] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Tissue-resident memory T cells (TRM) are a specialized T cell population residing in peripheral tissues. The presence and potential impact of TRM in the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) remain to be elucidated. Here, we systematically investigated the relationship between TRM and melanoma TIME based on multiple clinical single-cell RNA-seq datasets and developed signatures indicative of TRM infiltration. TRM infiltration is associated with longer overall survival and abundance of T cells, NK cells, M1 macrophages, and memory B cells in the TIME. A 22-gene TRM-derived risk score was further developed to effectively classify patients into low- and high-risk categories, distinguishing overall survival and immune activation, particularly in T cell-mediated responses. Altogether, our analysis suggests that TRM abundance is associated with melanoma TIME activation and patient survival, and the TRM-based machine learning model can potentially predict prognosis in melanoma patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chongming Jiang
- Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Cheng-Chi Chao
- Department of Pipeline Development, Biomap, Inc, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Jianrong Li
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Xin Ge
- Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
| | - Aidan Shen
- Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
| | - Vadim Jucaud
- Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
| | - Chao Cheng
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Institute for Clinical and Translational Research, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
- Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Xiling Shen
- Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
- Xilis, Inc., Durham, NC 27713, USA
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22
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Bate S, McGovern D, Costigliolo F, Tan PG, Kratky V, Scott J, Chapman GB, Brown N, Floyd L, Brilland B, Martín-Nares E, Aydın MF, Ilyas D, Butt A, Nic an Riogh E, Kollar M, Lees JS, Yildiz A, Hinojosa-Azaola A, Dhaygude A, Roberts SA, Rosenberg A, Wiech T, Pusey CD, Jones RB, Jayne DR, Bajema I, Jennette JC, Stevens KI, Augusto JF, Mejía-Vilet JM, Dhaun N, McAdoo SP, Tesar V, Little MA, Geetha D, Brix SR. The Improved Kidney Risk Score in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis for Clinical Practice and Trials. J Am Soc Nephrol 2024; 35:335-346. [PMID: 38082490 PMCID: PMC10914211 DOI: 10.1681/asn.0000000000000274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 11/03/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024] Open
Abstract
SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. More than 1500 patients were collated in an international longitudinal study to revise the ANCA kidney risk score. The score showed satisfactory performance, mimicking the original study (Harrell's C=0.779). In the development cohort of 959 patients, no additional parameters aiding the tool were detected, but replacing the GFR with creatinine identified an additional cutoff. The parameter interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy was modified to allow wider access, risk points were reweighted, and a fourth risk group was created, improving predictive ability (C=0.831). In the validation, the new model performed similarly well with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). The revised score optimizes prognostication for clinical practice and trials. BACKGROUND Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. A retrospective international longitudinal cohort was collated to revise the ANCA renal risk score. METHODS The primary end point was ESKD with patients censored at last follow-up. Cox proportional hazards were used to reweight risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves, Harrell's C statistic, receiver operating characteristics, and calibration plots were used to assess model performance. RESULTS Of 1591 patients, 1439 were included in the final analyses, 2:1 randomly allocated per center to development and validation cohorts (52% male, median age 64 years). In the development cohort ( n =959), the ANCA renal risk score was validated and calibrated, and parameters were reinvestigated modifying interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy allowing semiquantitative reporting. An additional cutoff for kidney function (K) was identified, and serum creatinine replaced GFR (K0: <250 µ mol/L=0, K1: 250-450 µ mol/L=4, K2: >450 µ mol/L=11 points). The risk points for the percentage of normal glomeruli (N) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (T) were reweighted (N0: >25%=0, N1: 10%-25%=4, N2: <10%=7, T0: none/mild or <25%=0, T1: ≥ mild-moderate or ≥25%=3 points), and four risk groups created: low (0-4 points), moderate (5-11), high (12-18), and very high (21). Discrimination was C=0.831, and the 3-year kidney survival was 96%, 79%, 54%, and 19%, respectively. The revised score performed similarly well in the validation cohort with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). CONCLUSIONS The updated score optimizes clinicopathologic prognostication for clinical practice and trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian Bate
- Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Division of Population Health, Health Services Research, and Primary Care, Centre for Biostatistics, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Dominic McGovern
- Glasgow Renal and Transplant Unit, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Department of Renal Medicine, Vasculitis Clinic, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Francesca Costigliolo
- Division of Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation, University of Genova, Genova, Italy
- Department of Internal Medicine and IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy
| | - Pek Ghe Tan
- Imperial College Renal and Transplant Centre, Hammersmith Hospital, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
- Renal Unit, Northern Health, Victoria, Australia
| | - Vojtech Kratky
- 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czechia
- Department of Nephrology, General University Hospital, Prague, Czechia
| | - Jennifer Scott
- Trinity Kidney Centre, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Gavin B. Chapman
- University/BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh and Department of Renal Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Nina Brown
- Division of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Renal Department, Salford Royal Hospital, Northern Care Alliance NHS Foundation Trust, Salford, United Kingdom
| | - Lauren Floyd
- Division of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Renal Department, Royal Preston Hospital, Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Preston, United Kingdom
| | - Benoit Brilland
- Service de Néphrologie-Dialyse-Transplantation, CHU d’Angers, Angers, France
| | - Eduardo Martín-Nares
- Departments of Immunology and Rheumatology, Nephrology and Mineral Metabolism, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | - Duha Ilyas
- Division of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Renal, Transplantation and Urology Unit, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Arslan Butt
- Renal Department, Salford Royal Hospital, Northern Care Alliance NHS Foundation Trust, Salford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Marek Kollar
- Department of Pathology, Institute for Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Prague, Czechia
| | - Jennifer S. Lees
- Glasgow Renal and Transplant Unit, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Abdülmecit Yildiz
- Division of Nephrology, Bursa Uludağ University School of Medicine, Bursa, Turkey
| | - Andrea Hinojosa-Azaola
- Departments of Immunology and Rheumatology, Nephrology and Mineral Metabolism, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Ajay Dhaygude
- Renal Department, Royal Preston Hospital, Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Preston, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen A. Roberts
- Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Division of Population Health, Health Services Research, and Primary Care, Centre for Biostatistics, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Avi Rosenberg
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Thorsten Wiech
- University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Institute of Pathology, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Charles D. Pusey
- Imperial College Renal and Transplant Centre, Hammersmith Hospital, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Inflammatory Disease, Department of Immunology and Inflammation, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rachel B. Jones
- Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Department of Renal Medicine, Vasculitis Clinic, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - David R.W. Jayne
- Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Department of Renal Medicine, Vasculitis Clinic, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Ingeborg Bajema
- Department of Pathology, Groningen University Medical Center, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - J. Charles Jennette
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
| | - Kate I. Stevens
- Glasgow Renal and Transplant Unit, Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | | | - Juan Manuel Mejía-Vilet
- Departments of Immunology and Rheumatology, Nephrology and Mineral Metabolism, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Neeraj Dhaun
- University/BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh and Department of Renal Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen P. McAdoo
- Imperial College Renal and Transplant Centre, Hammersmith Hospital, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Inflammatory Disease, Department of Immunology and Inflammation, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Vladimir Tesar
- 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czechia
- Department of Nephrology, General University Hospital, Prague, Czechia
| | - Mark A. Little
- Trinity Kidney Centre, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Duruvu Geetha
- Division of Nephrology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Silke R. Brix
- Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Renal, Transplantation and Urology Unit, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, United Kingdom
- Division of Cell Matrix Biology and Regenerative Medicine, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
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23
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Riley RD, Archer L, Snell KIE, Ensor J, Dhiman P, Martin GP, Bonnett LJ, Collins GS. Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study. BMJ 2024; 384:e074820. [PMID: 38224968 PMCID: PMC10788734 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2023-074820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/13/2023] [Indexed: 01/17/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Richard D Riley
- Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK
| | - Lucinda Archer
- Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK
| | - Kym I E Snell
- Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK
| | - Joie Ensor
- Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK
| | - Paula Dhiman
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Glen P Martin
- Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK
| | - Laura J Bonnett
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Hoogland J, Debray TPA, Crowther MJ, Riley RD, IntHout J, Reitsma JB, Zwinderman AH. Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models. Biom J 2024; 66:e2200319. [PMID: 37775946 DOI: 10.1002/bimj.202200319] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2022] [Revised: 04/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023]
Abstract
We propose to combine the benefits of flexible parametric survival modeling and regularization to improve risk prediction modeling in the context of time-to-event data. Thereto, we introduce ridge, lasso, elastic net, and group lasso penalties for both log hazard and log cumulative hazard models. The log (cumulative) hazard in these models is represented by a flexible function of time that may depend on the covariates (i.e., covariate effects may be time-varying). We show that the optimization problem for the proposed models can be formulated as a convex optimization problem and provide a user-friendly R implementation for model fitting and penalty parameter selection based on cross-validation. Simulation study results show the advantage of regularization in terms of increased out-of-sample prediction accuracy and improved calibration and discrimination of predicted survival probabilities, especially when sample size was relatively small with respect to model complexity. An applied example illustrates the proposed methods. In summary, our work provides both a foundation for and an easily accessible implementation of regularized parametric survival modeling and suggests that it improves out-of-sample prediction performance.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Hoogland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - T P A Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - M J Crowther
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - R D Riley
- School for Medicine, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, UK
| | - J IntHout
- Radboud Institute for Health Sciences (RIHS), Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - J B Reitsma
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - A H Zwinderman
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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25
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Balcar L, Mandorfer M, Hernández-Gea V, Procopet B, Meyer EL, Giráldez Á, Amitrano L, Villanueva C, Thabut D, Samaniego LI, Silva-Junior G, Martinez J, Genescà J, Bureau C, Trebicka J, Herrera EL, Laleman W, Palazón Azorín JM, Alonso JC, Gluud LL, Ferreira CN, Cañete N, Rodríguez M, Ferlitsch A, Mundi JL, Grønbæk H, Hernandez Guerra MN, Sassatelli R, Dell'Era A, Senzolo M, Abraldes JG, Romero-Gómez M, Zipprich A, Casas M, Masnou H, Primignani M, Krag A, Nevens F, Calleja JL, Jansen C, Catalina MV, Albillos A, Rudler M, Tapias EA, Guardascione MA, Tantau M, Schwarzer R, Reiberger T, Laursen SB, Lopez-Gomez M, Cachero A, Ferrarese A, Ripoll C, La Mura V, Bosch J, García-Pagán JC. Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving β-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding. J Hepatol 2024; 80:73-81. [PMID: 37852414 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2023.10.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2023] [Revised: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorenz Balcar
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Austria
| | - Mattias Mandorfer
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Austria; Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Virginia Hernández-Gea
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; Fundació Clinic Recerca Biomèdica-Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer (FCRB-IDIBAPS), Spain; Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain
| | - Bogdan Procopet
- Hepatology Department and 3rd Medical Clinic, Regional Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology 'Octavian Fodor' and 'Iuliu Hatieganu' University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Romania
| | - Elias Laurin Meyer
- Section for Medical Statistics, Center for Medical Data Science, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Berry Consultants, Vienna, Austria
| | - Álvaro Giráldez
- Clinical Management Unit of Digestive Diseases, University Hospital Virgen Del Rocio, Spain
| | | | - Candid Villanueva
- Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Servei De Patologia Digestiva, Hospital De La Santa Creu I Sant Pau, Spain
| | | | - Luis Ibáñez Samaniego
- Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Servicio De Medicina De Aparato Digestivo Gregorio Marañón, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Lisgm, Spain
| | - Gilberto Silva-Junior
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Javier Martinez
- Department of Gastroenterology and Instituto Ramón y Cajal De Investigación Sanitaria (IRYCIS), Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal and University of Alcalá, Spain
| | - Joan Genescà
- Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institute of Research (VHIR), Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Christophe Bureau
- Department of Hepato-Gastroenterology, Purpan Hospital, University of Toulouse, France
| | - Jonel Trebicka
- Department of Internal Medicine B, University of Münster, Germany; Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Odense University Hospital, Denmark; Department of Internal Medicine I, University of Bonn, Germany
| | - Elba Llop Herrera
- Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Universitario Puerta De Hierro Majadahonda, Universidad Autònoma de Madrid, Spain
| | - Wim Laleman
- Department of Liver and Biliopancreatic Disorders, KU Leuven, Belgium
| | | | - Jose Castellote Alonso
- Gastroenterology Department, Hepatology Unit, Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge, Idibell, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Lise Lotte Gluud
- Gastro Unit, Medical Division, Copenhagen University Hospital Hvidovre and Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Carlos Noronha Ferreira
- Serviço de Gastrenterologia e Hepatologia, Hospital de Santa Maria - Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte, Portugal
| | - Nuria Cañete
- Liver Section, Gastroenterology Department and Imim (Hospital del Mar Medical Research Institute), Gastroenterology Department, Spain
| | - Manuel Rodríguez
- Department of Gastroenterology, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, Spain
| | - Arnulf Ferlitsch
- Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Austria; Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; Department of Internal Medicine I, Gastroenterology and Nephrology, St. John of God Hospital, Vienna, Austria
| | - Jose Luis Mundi
- Department of Gastroenterology, University Hospital San Cecilio, Spain
| | - Henning Grønbæk
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark
| | | | - Romano Sassatelli
- Unit of Gastroenterology and Digestive Endoscopy, Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova-IRRCS, Italy
| | - Alessandra Dell'Era
- Gastroenterology Unit, Asst Fatebenefratelli Sacco, Department of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences, Università Degli Studi Di Milano, Italy
| | - Marco Senzolo
- Multivisceral Transplant Unit, Gastroenterology, Department of Surgery, Oncology and Gastroenterology, University Hospital of Padua, Italy
| | - Juan Gonzalez Abraldes
- Cirrhosis Care Clinic, Division of Gastroenterology (Liver Unit), CEGIIR, University of Alberta, Canada
| | - Manuel Romero-Gómez
- Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Unidad De Hepatología, Hospital Universitario De Valme, Spain
| | - Alexander Zipprich
- First Department of Internal Medicine, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany
| | - Meritxell Casas
- Hepatology Unit, Digestive Disease Department, Hospital De Sabadell, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Helena Masnou
- Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, Spain
| | - Massimo Primignani
- CRC 'a.M. and a. Migliavacca' Center for Liver Disease, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università Degli Studi Di Milano, Italy
| | - Aleksander Krag
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Odense University Hospital, Denmark
| | - Frederik Nevens
- Department of Liver and Biliopancreatic Disorders, KU Leuven, Belgium
| | - Jose Luis Calleja
- Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Universitario Puerta De Hierro Majadahonda, Universidad Autònoma de Madrid, Spain
| | | | - María Vega Catalina
- Servicio De Medicina De Aparato Digestivo Gregorio Marañón, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Lisgm, Spain
| | - Agustín Albillos
- Department of Gastroenterology and Instituto Ramón y Cajal De Investigación Sanitaria (IRYCIS), Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal and University of Alcalá, Spain
| | - Marika Rudler
- Groupement Hospitalier Pitié-Salpêtrière-Charles Foix, France
| | - Edilmar Alvarado Tapias
- Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Servei De Patologia Digestiva, Hospital De La Santa Creu I Sant Pau, Spain
| | | | - Marcel Tantau
- Hepatology Department and 3rd Medical Clinic, Regional Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology 'Octavian Fodor' and 'Iuliu Hatieganu' University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Romania
| | - Rémy Schwarzer
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Austria
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Austria; Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Medical University of Vienna, Austria
| | | | - Marta Lopez-Gomez
- Liver Unit, Hospital Universitario Puerta De Hierro Majadahonda, Universidad Autònoma de Madrid, Spain; Liver Unit, Hospital Universitario Puerta De Hierro Majadahonda, Spain
| | - Alba Cachero
- Gastroenterology Department, Hepatology Unit, Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge, Idibell, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain
| | - Alberto Ferrarese
- Multivisceral Transplant Unit, Gastroenterology, Department of Surgery, Oncology and Gastroenterology, University Hospital of Padua, Italy
| | - Cristina Ripoll
- First Department of Internal Medicine, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Germany; Internal Medicine IV, Universitätsklinikum Jena, Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany
| | - Vincenzo La Mura
- Hospital Universitari Germans Trias I Pujol, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, Spain; Uoc Medicina Generale - Emostasi e Trombosi, Fondazione IRRCS, Cà Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Italy
| | - Jaime Bosch
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; Fundació Clinic Recerca Biomèdica-Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer (FCRB-IDIBAPS), Spain; Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain; Department of Visceral Surgery and Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland
| | - Juan Carlos García-Pagán
- Barcelona Hepatic Hemodynamic Lab, Liver Unit, Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain; Fundació Clinic Recerca Biomèdica-Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi I Sunyer (FCRB-IDIBAPS), Spain; Centro De Investigación Biomédica Red De Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd)), Spain.
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26
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Acem I, Steyerberg EW, Spreafico M, Grünhagen DJ, Callegaro D, Spinner RJ, Pendleton C, Coert JH, Miceli R, Abruzzese G, Flucke UE, Slooff WBM, van Dalen T, Been LB, Bonenkamp HJ, Anten MHME, Broen MPG, Bemelmans MHA, Bramer JAM, Schaap GR, Kievit AJ, van der Hage J, van Houdt WJ, van de Sande MAJ, Gronchi A, Verhoef C, Martin E. Survival after resection of malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors: Introducing and validating a novel type-specific prognostic model. Neurooncol Adv 2024; 6:vdae083. [PMID: 38946881 PMCID: PMC11212065 DOI: 10.1093/noajnl/vdae083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Background This study aimed to assess the performance of currently available risk calculators in a cohort of patients with malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) and to create an MPNST-specific prognostic model including type-specific predictors for overall survival (OS). Methods This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study of patients with MPNST from 11 secondary or tertiary centers in The Netherlands, Italy and the United States of America. All patients diagnosed with primary MPNST who underwent macroscopically complete surgical resection from 2000 to 2019 were included in this study. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model for OS was estimated with prespecified predictors (age, grade, size, NF-1 status, triton status, depth, tumor location, and surgical margin). Model performance was assessed for the Sarculator and PERSARC calculators by examining discrimination (C-index) and calibration (calibration plots and observed-expected statistic; O/E-statistic). Internal-external cross-validation by different regions was performed to evaluate the generalizability of the model. Results A total of 507 patients with primary MPNSTs were included from 11 centers in 7 regions. During follow-up (median 8.7 years), 211 patients died. The C-index was 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.67) for both Sarculator and PERSARC. The MPNST-specific model had a pooled C-index of 0.69 (95%CI 0.65-0.73) at validation, with adequate discrimination and calibration across regions. Conclusions The MPNST-specific MONACO model can be used to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS in patients with primary MPNST who underwent macroscopically complete surgical resection. Further validation may refine the model to inform patients and physicians on prognosis and support them in shared decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibtissam Acem
- Department of Surgical Oncology and Gastrointestinal Surgery,Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, >Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Orthopedic Oncology, Leiden University Medical Centre, >Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, >Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Marta Spreafico
- Department of Medical Statistics, Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, >Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Dirk J Grünhagen
- Department of Surgical Oncology and Gastrointestinal Surgery,Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, >Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Dario Callegaro
- Department of Surgery, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, >Milan, Italy
| | - Robert J Spinner
- Department of Neurosurgery, Mayo Clinic, >Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Courtney Pendleton
- Department of Neurosurgery, Stony Brook University School of Medicine, Stony Brook, New York, USA
| | - J Henk Coert
- Department of Reconstructive Surgery, University Medical Centre Utrecht, >Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Rosalba Miceli
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Trial Organization, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, >Milan, Italy
| | - Giulia Abruzzese
- Department of Surgery, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, >Milan, Italy
| | - Uta E Flucke
- Department of Pathology, Radboud University Medical Centre, >Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Willem-Bart M Slooff
- Department of Neurosurgery, University Medical Centre Utrecht, >Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Thijs van Dalen
- Department of Surgical Oncology and Gastrointestinal Surgery,Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, >Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Lukas B Been
- Department of Surgical Oncology, University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Han J Bonenkamp
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Radboud University Medical Centre, >Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Monique H M E Anten
- Department of Neurology, Maastricht University Medical Centre, >Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Martinus P G Broen
- Department of Neurology, Maastricht University Medical Centre, >Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Marc H A Bemelmans
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Maastricht University Medical Centre, >Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Jos A M Bramer
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Gerard R Schaap
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Arthur J Kievit
- Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Jos van der Hage
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Winan J van Houdt
- Department of Surgical Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Alessandro Gronchi
- Department of Surgery, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, >Milan, Italy
| | - Cornelis Verhoef
- Department of Surgical Oncology and Gastrointestinal Surgery,Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, >Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Enrico Martin
- Department of Reconstructive Surgery, University Medical Centre Utrecht, >Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Shen J, Li M. Gastric Cancer Immune Subtypes and Prognostic Modeling: Insights from Aging-Related Gene Analysis. Crit Rev Immunol 2024; 44:1-13. [PMID: 38618724 DOI: 10.1615/critrevimmunol.2024052391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/16/2024]
Abstract
Gastric cancer (GC) is highly heterogeneous and influenced by aging-related factors. This study aimed to improve individualized prognostic assessment of GC by identifying aging-related genes and subtypes. Immune scores of GC samples from GEO and TCGA databases were calculated using ESTIMATE and scored as high immune (IS_high) and low immune (IS_low). ssGSEA was used to analyze immune cell infiltration. Univariate Cox regression was employed to identify prognosis-related genes. LASSO regression analysis was used to construct a prognostic model. GSVA enrichment analysis was applied to determine pathways. CCK-8, wound healing, and Transwell assays tested the proliferation, migration, and invasion of the GC cell line (AGS). Cell cycle and aging were examined using flow cytometry, β-galactosidase staining, and Western blotting. Two aging-related GC subtypes were identified. Subtype 2 was characterized as lower survival probability and higher risk, along with a more immune-responsive tumor microenvironment. Three genes (IGFBP5, BCL11B, and AKR1B1) screened from aging-related genes were used to establish a prognosis model. The AUC values of the model were greater than 0.669, exhibiting strong prognostic value. In vitro, IGFBP5 overexpression in AGS cells was found to decrease viability, migration, and invasion, alter the cell cycle, and increase aging biomarkers (SA-β-galactosidase, p53, and p21). This analysis uncovered the immune characteristics of two subtypes and aging-related prognosis genes in GC. The prognostic model established for three aging-related genes (IGFBP5, BCL11B, and AKR1B1) demonstrated good prognosis performance, providing a foundation for personalized treatment strategies aimed at GC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Shen
- Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University
| | - Minzhe Li
- Department of General Surgery, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China
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28
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Tanner KT, Keogh RH, Coupland CAC, Hippisley-Cox J, Diaz-Ordaz K. Dynamic updating of clinical survival prediction models in a changing environment. Diagn Progn Res 2023; 7:24. [PMID: 38082429 PMCID: PMC10714456 DOI: 10.1186/s41512-023-00163-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 01/31/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over time, the performance of clinical prediction models may deteriorate due to changes in clinical management, data quality, disease risk and/or patient mix. Such prediction models must be updated in order to remain useful. In this study, we investigate dynamic model updating of clinical survival prediction models. In contrast to discrete or one-time updating, dynamic updating refers to a repeated process for updating a prediction model with new data. We aim to extend previous research which focused largely on binary outcome prediction models by concentrating on time-to-event outcomes. We were motivated by the rapidly changing environment seen during the COVID-19 pandemic where mortality rates changed over time and new treatments and vaccines were introduced. METHODS We illustrate three methods for dynamic model updating: Bayesian dynamic updating, recalibration, and full refitting. We use a simulation study to compare performance in a range of scenarios including changing mortality rates, predictors with low prevalence and the introduction of a new treatment. Next, the updating strategies were applied to a model for predicting 70-day COVID-19-related mortality using patient data from QResearch, an electronic health records database from general practices in the UK. RESULTS In simulated scenarios with mortality rates changing over time, all updating methods resulted in better calibration than not updating. Moreover, dynamic updating outperformed ad hoc updating. In the simulation scenario with a new predictor and a small updating dataset, Bayesian updating improved the C-index over not updating and refitting. In the motivating example with a rare outcome, no single updating method offered the best performance. CONCLUSIONS We found that a dynamic updating process outperformed one-time discrete updating in the simulations. Bayesian updating offered good performance overall, even in scenarios with new predictors and few events. Intercept recalibration was effective in scenarios with smaller sample size and changing baseline hazard. Refitting performance depended on sample size and produced abrupt changes in hazard ratio estimates between periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamaryn T Tanner
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
| | - Ruth H Keogh
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Carol A C Coupland
- Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6HT, UK
- Centre for Academic Primary Care, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2UH, UK
| | - Julia Hippisley-Cox
- Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6HT, UK
| | - Karla Diaz-Ordaz
- Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
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29
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Bobrzynski L, Sędłak K, Rawicz-Pruszyński K, Kolodziejczyk P, Szczepanik A, Polkowski W, Richter P, Sierzega M. Evaluation of optimum classification measures used to define textbook outcome among patients undergoing curative-intent resection of gastric cancer. BMC Cancer 2023; 23:1199. [PMID: 38057839 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-023-11695-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 12/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Textbook outcome (TO) is a composite measure reflecting various aspects of services provided to patients with solid malignancies. We sought to evaluate the importance of various TO components previously proposed for gastric cancer. METHODS Prospectively maintained electronic databases of 1,743 patients treated in two academic surgical centres were reviewed. Six candidate definitions of TO were evaluated based on their ability to accurately predict patients' prognosis by Cox proportional hazards modelling. RESULTS TO definition combining 10 measures corresponding to complete tumour resection with an uneventful postoperative course showed the best goodness of fit by achieving the lowest values of Akaike (AIC) and Bayesian (BIC) information criteria and the best predictive performance based on the highest value of c-index. The overall median survival was significantly longer for patients with than without textbook outcome (69.0 vs 20.1 months, P < 0.001). TO maintained its prognostic value in a multivariate model controlling for age, sex, comorbidities, treatment, and tumour related variables and was associated with a 39% lower risk of death (HR 0.61, 95%CI 0.51 - 0.73, P < 0.001). Nine variables identified as predictors of TO were used to develop a nomogram showing very good correlation between the predicted and actual probability of achieving TO. The AUC of ROC obtained from the nomogram was 0.752 (95% CI 0.727 to 0.781). CONCLUSIONS A uniform definition of textbook outcome provides clinically relevant prognostic information and could be used in quality improvement programs for gastric cancer patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- L Bobrzynski
- First Department of Surgery, Jagiellonian University Medical College, 2 Jakubowskiego Street, Krakow, 30-688, Poland
| | - K Sędłak
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Medical University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland
| | - K Rawicz-Pruszyński
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Medical University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland
| | - P Kolodziejczyk
- First Department of Surgery, Jagiellonian University Medical College, 2 Jakubowskiego Street, Krakow, 30-688, Poland
| | - A Szczepanik
- First Department of Surgery, Jagiellonian University Medical College, 2 Jakubowskiego Street, Krakow, 30-688, Poland
| | - W Polkowski
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Medical University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland
| | - P Richter
- First Department of Surgery, Jagiellonian University Medical College, 2 Jakubowskiego Street, Krakow, 30-688, Poland
| | - M Sierzega
- First Department of Surgery, Jagiellonian University Medical College, 2 Jakubowskiego Street, Krakow, 30-688, Poland.
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Nomali M, Khalili D, Yaseri M, Mansournia MA, Ayati A, Navid H, Nedjat S. Validity of the models predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases in Asia: A systematic review and prediction model meta-analysis. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0292396. [PMID: 38032893 PMCID: PMC10688732 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/02/2023] Open
Abstract
We aimed to review the validity of existing prediction models for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Asia. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we included studies that validated prediction models for CVD risk in the general population in Asia. Various databases, including PubMed, Web of Science conference proceedings citation index, Scopus, Global Index Medicus of the World Health Organization (WHO), and Open Access Thesis and Dissertations (OATD), were searched up to November 2022. Additional studies were identified through reference lists and related reviews. The risk of bias was assessed using the PROBAST prediction model risk of bias assessment tool. Meta-analyses were performed using the random effects model, focusing on the C-statistic as a discrimination index and the observed-to-expected ratio (OE) as a calibration index. Out of 1315 initial records, 16 studies were included, with 21 external validations of six models in Asia. The validated models consisted of Framingham models, pooled cohort equations (PCEs), SCORE, Globorisk, and WHO models, combined with the results of the first four models. The pooled C-statistic for men ranged from 0.72 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.75; PCEs) to 0.76 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.78; Framingham general CVD). In women, it varied from 0.74 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.97; SCORE) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83; Framingham general CVD). The pooled OE ratio for men ranged from 0.21 (95% CI 0.018 to 2.49; Framingham CHD) to 1.11 (95%CI 0.65 to 1.89; PCEs). In women, it varied from 0.28 (95%CI 0.33 to 2.33; Framingham CHD) to 1.81 (95% CI 0.90 to 3.64; PCEs). The Framingham, PCEs, and SCORE models exhibited acceptable discrimination but poor calibration in predicting the 10-year risk of CVDs in Asia. Recalibration and updates are necessary before implementing these models in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahin Nomali
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Davood Khalili
- Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehdi Yaseri
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Ali Mansournia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Aryan Ayati
- Tehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hossein Navid
- Tehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Saharnaz Nedjat
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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Kostopoulos G, Doundoulakis I, Toulis KA, Karagiannis T, Tsapas A, Haidich AB. Prognostic models for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Heart 2023; 109:1436-1442. [PMID: 36898704 DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2022-322044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2022] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To provide a systematic review, critical appraisal, assessment of performance and generalisability of all the reported prognostic models for heart failure (HF) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS We performed a literature search in Medline, Embase, Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Scopus (from inception to July 2022) and grey literature to identify any study developing and/or validating models predicting HF applicable to patients with T2D. We extracted data on study characteristics, modelling methods and measures of performance, and we performed a random-effects meta-analysis to pool discrimination in models with multiple validation studies. We also performed a descriptive synthesis of calibration and we assessed the risk of bias and certainty of evidence (high, moderate, low). RESULTS Fifty-five studies reporting on 58 models were identified: (1) models developed in patients with T2D for HF prediction (n=43), (2) models predicting HF developed in non-diabetic cohorts and externally validated in patients with T2D (n=3), and (3) models originally predicting a different outcome and externally validated for HF (n=12). RECODe (C-statistic=0.75 95% CI (0.72, 0.78), 95% prediction interval (PI) (0.68, 0.81); high certainty), TRS-HFDM (C-statistic=0.75 95% CI (0.69, 0.81), 95% PI (0.58, 0.87); low certainty) and WATCH-DM (C-statistic=0.70 95% CI (0.67, 0.73), 95% PI (0.63, 0.76); moderate certainty) showed the best performance. QDiabetes-HF demonstrated also good discrimination but was externally validated only once and not meta-analysed. CONCLUSIONS Among the prognostic models identified, four models showed promising performance and, thus, could be implemented in current clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgios Kostopoulos
- Department of Endocrinology, 424 General Military Hospital, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Ioannis Doundoulakis
- Department of Cardiology, 424 General Military Hospital, Thessaloniki, Greece
- First Department of Cardiology, National and Kapodistrian University, "Hippokration" Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Konstantinos A Toulis
- Department of Endocrinology, 424 General Military Hospital, Thessaloniki, Greece
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Thomas Karagiannis
- Diabetes Centre, Second Medical Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
- Clinical Research and Evidence-Based Medicine Unit, Second Medical Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Apostolos Tsapas
- Diabetes Centre, Second Medical Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
- Clinical Research and Evidence-Based Medicine Unit, Second Medical Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
- Harris Manchester College, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Anna-Bettina Haidich
- Department of Hygiene, Social-Preventive Medicine and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
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Liang J, Li Q, Fu Z, Liu X, Shen P, Sun Y, Zhang J, Lu P, Lin H, Tang X, Gao P. Validation and comparison of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in Chinese patients with Type 2 diabetes. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2023; 30:1293-1303. [PMID: 37315163 DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwad198] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Revised: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
AIMS For patients with diabetes, the European guidelines updated the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction recommendations using diabetes-specific models with age-specific cut-offs, whereas American guidelines still advise models derived from the general population. We aimed to compare the performance of four cardiovascular risk models in diabetes populations. METHODS AND RESULTS Patients with diabetes from the CHERRY study, an electronic health records-based cohort study in China, were identified. Five-year CVD risk was calculated using original and recalibrated diabetes-specific models [Action in Diabetes and Vascular disease: PreterAx and diamicroN-MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) and the Hong Kong cardiovascular risk model (HK)] and general population-based models [Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and Prediction for Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR)]. During a median 5.8-year follow-up, 46 558 patients had 2605 CVD events. C-statistics were 0.711 [95% confidence interval: 0.693-0.729] for ADVANCE and 0.701 (0.683-0.719) for HK in men, and 0.742 (0.725-0.759) and 0.732 (0.718-0.747) in women. C-statistics were worse in two general population-based models. Recalibrated ADVANCE underestimated risk by 1.2% and 16.8% in men and women, whereas PCE underestimated risk by 41.9% and 24.2% in men and women. With the age-specific cut-offs, the overlap of the high-risk patients selected by every model pair ranged from only 22.6% to 51.2%. When utilizing the fixed cut-off at 5%, the recalibrated ADVANCE selected similar high-risk patients in men (7400) as compared to the age-specific cut-offs (7102), whereas age-specific cut-offs exhibited a reduction in the selection of high-risk patients in women (2646 under age-specific cut-offs vs. 3647 under fixed cut-off). CONCLUSION Diabetes-specific CVD risk prediction models showed better discrimination for patients with diabetes. High-risk patients selected by different models varied significantly. Age-specific cut-offs selected fewer patients at high CVD risk especially in women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingyuan Liang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Qianqian Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Zhangping Fu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Xiaofei Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Peng Shen
- Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, Yinzhou District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China
| | - Yexiang Sun
- Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, Yinzhou District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China
| | - Jingyi Zhang
- Department of Medical Big Data, Wonders Information Co. Ltd, Shanghai, China
| | - Ping Lu
- Department of Medical Big Data, Wonders Information Co. Ltd, Shanghai, China
| | - Hongbo Lin
- Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, Yinzhou District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China
| | - Xun Tang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
- Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China
| | - Pei Gao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
- Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China
- Peking University Clinical Research Institute, Peking University, Beijing, China
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Spencer KL, Absolom KL, Allsop MJ, Relton SD, Pearce J, Liao K, Naseer S, Salako O, Howdon D, Hewison J, Velikova G, Faivre-Finn C, Bekker HL, van der Veer SN. Fixing the Leaky Pipe: How to Improve the Uptake of Patient-Reported Outcomes-Based Prognostic and Predictive Models in Cancer Clinical Practice. JCO Clin Cancer Inform 2023; 7:e2300070. [PMID: 37976441 PMCID: PMC10681558 DOI: 10.1200/cci.23.00070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE This discussion paper outlines challenges and proposes solutions for successfully implementing prediction models that incorporate patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in cancer practice. METHODS We organized a full-day multidisciplinary meeting of people with expertise in cancer care delivery, PRO collection, PRO use in prediction modeling, computing, implementation, and decision science. The discussions presented here focused on identifying challenges to the development, implementation and use of prediction models incorporating PROs, and suggesting possible solutions. RESULTS Specific challenges and solutions were identified across three broad areas. (1) Understanding decision making and implementation: necessitating multidisciplinary collaboration in the early stages and throughout; early stakeholder engagement to define the decision problem and ensure acceptability of PROs in prediction; understanding patient/clinician interpretation of PRO predictions and uncertainty to optimize prediction impact; striving for model integration into existing electronic health records; and early regulatory alignment. (2) Recognizing the limitations to PRO collection and their impact on prediction: incorporating validated, clinically important PROs to maximize model generalizability and clinical engagement; and minimizing missing PRO data (resulting from both structural digital exclusion and time-varying factors) to avoid exacerbating existing inequalities. (3) Statistical and modeling challenges: incorporating statistical methods to address missing data; ensuring predictive modeling recognizes complex causal relationships; and considering temporal and geographic recalibration so that model predictions reflect the relevant population. CONCLUSION Developing and implementing PRO-based prediction models in cancer care requires extensive multidisciplinary working from the earliest stages, recognition of implementation challenges because of PRO collection and model presentation, and robust statistical methods to manage missing data, causality, and calibration. Prediction models incorporating PROs should be viewed as complex interventions, with their development and impact assessment carried out to reflect this.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie L. Spencer
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Cancer Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Kate L. Absolom
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew J. Allsop
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Samuel D. Relton
- Leeds Institute of Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Jessica Pearce
- Leeds Cancer Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute of Medical Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Kuan Liao
- Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, Centre for Health Informatics, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Sairah Naseer
- School of Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Omolola Salako
- College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Daniel Howdon
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Jenny Hewison
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Galina Velikova
- Leeds Cancer Centre, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Leeds Institute of Medical Research, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Corinne Faivre-Finn
- Institute of Cancer Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Hilary L. Bekker
- Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Sabine N. van der Veer
- Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, Centre for Health Informatics, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
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Rentroia-Pacheco B, Tokez S, Bramer EM, Venables ZC, van de Werken HJ, Bellomo D, van Klaveren D, Mooyaart AL, Hollestein LM, Wakkee M. Personalised decision making to predict absolute metastatic risk in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma: development and validation of a clinico-pathological model. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 63:102150. [PMID: 37662519 PMCID: PMC10468358 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is a common skin cancer, affecting more than 2 million people worldwide yearly and metastasising in 2-5% of patients. However, current clinical staging systems do not provide estimates of absolute metastatic risk, hence missing the opportunity for more personalised treatment advice. We aimed to develop a clinico-pathological model that predicts the probability of metastasis in patients with cSCC. Methods Nationwide cohorts from (1) all patients with a first primary cSCC in The Netherlands in 2007-2008 and (2) all patients with a cSCC in 2013-2015 in England were used to derive nested case-control cohorts. Pathology records of primary cSCCs that originated a loco-regional or distant metastasis were identified, and these cSCCs were matched to primary cSCCs of controls without metastasis (1:1 ratio). The model was developed on the Dutch cohort (n = 390) using a weighted Cox regression model with backward selection and validated on the English cohort (n = 696). Model performance was assessed using weighted versions of the C-index, calibration metrics, and decision curve analysis; and compared to the Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems. Members of the multidisciplinary Skin Cancer Outcomes (SCOUT) consortium were surveyed to interpret metastatic risk cutoffs in a clinical context. Findings Eight out of eleven clinico-pathological variables were selected. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.80 (95% Confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.85) in the development cohort and a C-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87) in the validation cohort. Model predictions were well-calibrated: the calibration slope was 0.96 (95% CI 0.76-1.16) in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis showed improved net benefit compared to current staging systems, particularly for thresholds relevant for decisions on follow-up and adjuvant treatment. The model is available as an online web-based calculator (https://emc-dermatology.shinyapps.io/cscc-abs-met-risk/). Interpretation This validated model assigns personalised metastatic risk predictions to patients with cSCC, using routinely reported histological and patient-specific risk factors. The model can empower clinicians and healthcare systems in identifying patients with high-risk cSCC and offering personalised care/treatment and follow-up. Use of the model for clinical decision-making in different patient populations must be further investigated. Funding PPP Allowance made available by Health-Holland, Top Sector Life Sciences & Health, to stimulate public-private partnerships.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Rentroia-Pacheco
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Selin Tokez
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Edo M. Bramer
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Zoe C. Venables
- Department of Dermatology, Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, Norwich, United Kingdom
- National Disease Registration Service, NHS England, United Kingdom
- Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
| | - Harmen J.G. van de Werken
- Department of Immunology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | - David van Klaveren
- Department of Public Health, Center for Medical Decision Making, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Antien L. Mooyaart
- Department of Pathology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Loes M. Hollestein
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Research, Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL), Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Marlies Wakkee
- Department of Dermatology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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Choi WJ, Walker R, Rajendran L, Jones O, Gravely A, Englesakis M, Gallinger S, Hirschfield G, Hansen B, Sapisochin G. Call to Improve the Quality of Prediction Tools for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Resection: A Critical Appraisal, Systematic Review, and External Validation Study. ANNALS OF SURGERY OPEN 2023; 4:e328. [PMID: 37746604 PMCID: PMC10513309 DOI: 10.1097/as9.0000000000000328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 09/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective To conduct a systematic review, critical appraisal, and external validation of survival prediction tools for patients undergoing intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) resection. Summary background data Despite the development of several survival prediction tools in recent years for patients undergoing iCCA resections, there is a lack of critical appraisal and external validation of these models. Methods We conducted a systematic review and critical appraisal of survival and recurrence prediction models for patients undergoing curative-intent iCCA resections. Studies were evaluated based on their model design, risk of bias, reporting, performance, and validation results. We identified the best model and externally validated it using our institution's data. Results This review included a total of 31 studies, consisting of 26 studies with original prediction tools and 5 studies that only conducted external validations. Among the 26, 54% of the studies conducted internal validations, 46% conducted external validations, and only 1 study scored a low risk of bias. Harrell's C-statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.76 for internal validation and from 0.64 to 0.75 for external validation. Only 81% of the studies reported model calibration. Our external validation of the best model (Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma [ICC]-Metroticket) estimated Harrell's and Uno's C-statistics of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.56-0.77) and Uno's time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.53-0.88), with a Brier score of 0.20 (95% CI: 0.15-0.26) and good calibration plots. Conclusions Many prediction models have been published in recent years, but their quality remains poor, and minimal methodological quality improvement has been observed. The ICC-Metroticket was selected as the best model (Uno's time-dependent AUC of 0.71) for 5-year overall survival prediction in patients undergoing curative-intent iCCA resection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Woo Jin Choi
- From the Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Richard Walker
- From the Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Luckshi Rajendran
- From the Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Owen Jones
- University Health Network, HPB Surgical Oncology, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Annie Gravely
- University Health Network, HPB Surgical Oncology, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Marina Englesakis
- Library and Information Services, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Steven Gallinger
- From the Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- University Health Network, HPB Surgical Oncology, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Gideon Hirschfield
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Toronto Centre for Liver Disease, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Bettina Hansen
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Toronto Centre for Liver Disease, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Gonzalo Sapisochin
- From the Department of Surgery, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- University Health Network, HPB Surgical Oncology, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Hosein S, Drebin HM, Kurtansky NR, Bagge RO, Coit DG, Bartlett EK, Marchetti MA. Are the MIA and MSKCC nomograms useful in selecting patients with melanoma for sentinel lymph node biopsy? J Surg Oncol 2023; 127:1167-1173. [PMID: 36905337 PMCID: PMC10147582 DOI: 10.1002/jso.27231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/26/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND METHODS The Melanoma Institute of Australia (MIA) and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomograms were developed to help guide sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) decisions. Although statistically validated, whether these prediction models provide clinical benefit at National Comprehensive Cancer Network guideline-endorsed thresholds is unknown. We conducted a net benefit analysis to quantify the clinical utility of these nomograms at risk thresholds of 5%-10% compared to the alternative strategy of biopsying all patients. External validation data for MIA and MSKCC nomograms were extracted from respective published studies. RESULTS The MIA nomogram provided added net benefit at a risk threshold of 9% but net harm at 5%-8% and 10%. The MSKCC nomogram provided added net benefit at risk thresholds of 5% and 9%-10% but net harm at 6%-8%. When present, the magnitude of net benefit was small (1-3 net avoidable biopsies per 100 patients). CONCLUSION Neither model consistently provided added net benefit compared to performing SLNB for all patients. DISCUSSION Based on published data, use of the MIA or MSKCC nomograms as decision-making tools for SLNB at risk thresholds of 5%-10% does not clearly provide clinical benefit to patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sharif Hosein
- Dermatology Service, Department of Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, United States
| | - Harrison M. Drebin
- Gastric and Mixed Tumor Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, United States
| | - Nicholas R. Kurtansky
- Dermatology Service, Department of Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, United States
| | - Roger Olofsson Bagge
- Department of Surgery, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Sweden
- Sahlgrenska Center for Cancer Research, Department of Surgery, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg
- Wallenberg Centre for Molecular and Translational Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Daniel G. Coit
- Gastric and Mixed Tumor Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, United States
| | - Edmund K. Bartlett
- Gastric and Mixed Tumor Service, Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, United States
| | - Michael A. Marchetti
- Dermatology Service, Department of Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, United States
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