Predictive performance of machine learning compared to statistical methods in time-to-event analysis of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death, warranting effective management and prevention measures. Risk prediction tools are indispensable for directing primary and secondary prevention strategies for CVD and are critical for estimating CVD risk. Machine learning (ML) methodologies have experienced significant advancements across numerous practical domains in recent years. Several ML and statistical models predicting CVD time-to-event outcomes have been developed. However, it is not known as to which of the two model types-ML and statistical models-have higher discrimination and calibration in this regard. Hence, this planned work aims to systematically review studies that compare ML with statistical methods in terms of their predictive abilities in the case of time-to-event data with censoring.

METHODS

Original research articles published as prognostic prediction studies, which involved the development and/or validation of a prognostic model, within a peer-reviewed journal, using cohort or experimental design with at least a 12-month follow-up period will be systematically reviewed. The review process will adhere to the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies checklist.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for this review, as it will exclusively use data from published studies. The findings of this study will be published in an open-access journal and disseminated at scientific conferences.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023484178.

Seat belt use among pregnant women in the United Arab Emirates: the Mutaba'ah Study

INTRODUCTION

Motor vehicle collisions are a major cause of death and injury among pregnant women and their fetuses. Seat belt use compliance during pregnancy varies in different populations. We aimed to study seat belt use among pregnant women and factors affecting seat belt use during pregnancy in Al Ain City, the United Arab Emirates.

METHODS

This cross-sectional analysis used the baseline data collected from pregnant women participating in the Mutaba'ah Study from May 2017 to November 2022. Data were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Variables included sociodemographic, gestation periods and seat belt-related information. All pregnant women who responded to the questions related to seat belt use were included (N=2354).

RESULTS

Seat belt use before and during pregnancy was estimated at 69.7% (95% CI 67.9% to 71.6%) and 65.5% (95% CI 63.6% to 67.4%), respectively. The reasons for not using seat belts during pregnancy included being uncomfortable to wear, habitual non-use and considering them unsafe for pregnancy. Age, higher levels of education of the pregnant woman or her spouse, being employed, having a sufficient household income, lower gestational age, and using a seat belt before pregnancy were positively associated with using a seat belt during pregnancy in the bivariate analyses. Pregnant women in their third trimester had independently significant lower odds of using a seat belt compared with those in the first trimester (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate decreased compliance with seat belt use during pregnancy and as gestation progressed. The decrease was related to several reasons, including feeling uncomfortable wearing seat belts, habitual non-use and unsafe for pregnancy, necessitating appropriate measures to increase awareness. Raising public awareness about the advantages of wearing seat belts during pregnancy and the involvement of healthcare professionals in educating pregnant women are warranted.

Temporal trends of hemoglobin among pregnant women: The Mutaba'ah study

BACKGROUND

Low hemoglobin (Hb) level is a leading cause of many adverse pregnancy outcomes. Patterns of changes in Hb levels during pregnancy are not well understood.

AIM

This study estimated Hb levels, described its changing patterns across gestational trimesters, and identified factors associated with these changes among pregnant women.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the ongoing maternal and child health cohort study-The Mutaba'ah Study, was used (N = 1,120). KML machine learning algorithm was applied to identify three distinct cluster trajectories of Hb levels between the first and the third trimesters. Descriptive statistics were used to profile the study participants. Multinomial multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with change patterns in Hb levels.

RESULTS

The three identified clusters-A, B and C-had, respectively, median Hb levels (g/L) of 123, 118, and 104 in the first trimester and 119, 100, and 108 in the third trimester. Cluster 'A' maintained average normal Hb levels in both trimesters. Cluster 'B', on average, experienced a decrease in Hb levels below the normal range during the third trimester. Cluster 'C' showed increased Hb levels in the third trimester but remained, on average, below the normal range in both trimesters. Pregnant women with higher gravida, diabetes mellitus (type 1 or 2), nulliparity or lower level of education were more likely to be in cluster 'B' than the normal cluster 'A'. Pregnant women who reported using iron supplements before pregnancy or those with low levels of education. were more likely to be in cluster 'C' than the normal cluster 'A'.

CONCLUSION

The majority of pregnant women experienced low Hb levels during pregnancy. Changes in Hb levels during pregnancy were associated with parity, gravida, use of iron before pregnancy, and the presence of diabetes mellitus (type 1 or 2).

Sexually transmitted diseases knowledge assessment and associated factors among university students in the United Arab Emirates: a cross-sectional study

Background

Sexually transmitted diseases and infections (STDIs) remain a serious public health menace with over 350 million cases each year. Poor knowledge of STDIs has been identified as one of the bottlenecks in their control and prevention. Hence, assessment of knowledge, both general and domain-specific, is key to the prevention and control of these diseases. This study assessed the knowledge of STDIs and identified factors associated with STDI knowledge among university students in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Methods

This is a cross-sectional study among 778 UAE University students across all colleges. An online data collection tool was used to collect data regarding the participants' demographics and their level of knowledge of STDIs across different domains including general STDI pathogens knowledge (8 items), signs and symptoms (9 items), mode of transmission (5 items), and prevention (5 items). Knowledge was presented both as absolute and percentage scores. Differences in STDI knowledge were statistically assessed using Mann-Whitney U and Chi-squared tests. Logistic regression models were further used to identify factors associated with STDI knowledge.

Results

A total of 778 students participated in the study with a median age of 21 years (IQR = 19, 23). The overall median STDI knowledge score of the participants was 7 (out of 27), with some differences within STDI domains-signs & symptoms (1 out of 9), modes of transmission (2 out of 5), general STDI pathogens (2 out of 8), and prevention (1 out of 5). Higher STDI knowledge was significantly associated with being non-Emirati (OR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.24-2.75), being married (OR = 2.89, 95% CI = 1.50-5.56), residing in emirates other than Abu Dhabi (OR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.16-2.25), and being a student of health sciences (OR = 4.45, 95% CI = 3.07-6.45).

Conclusion

In general, STDI knowledge was low among the students. Having good knowledge of STDIs is essential for their prevention and control. Therefore, there is a need for informed interventions to address the knowledge gap among students, youths, and the general population at large.

The attitude and behaviors of the different spheres of the community of the United Arab Emirates toward the clinical utility and bioethics of secondary genetic findings: a cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Genome sequencing has utility, however, it may reveal secondary findings. While Western bioethicists have been occupied with managing secondary findings, specialists' attention in the Arabic countries has not yet been captured. We aim to explore the attitude of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) population toward secondary findings.

METHOD

We conducted a cross-sectional study between July and December 2022. The validated questionnaire was administered in English. The questionnaire consists of six sections addressing topics such as demographics, reactions to hypothetical genetic test results, disclosure of mutations to family members, willingness to seek genetic testing, and attitudes toward consanguinity. Chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests were used to investigate associations between categorical variables.

RESULTS

We had 343 participants of which the majority were female (67%). About four-fifths (82%) were willing to know the secondary findings, whether the condition has treatment or not. The most likely action to take among the participants was to know the secondary findings, so they can make life choices (61%).

CONCLUSION

These results can construct the framework of the bioethics of disclosing secondary findings in the Arab regions.

Knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of the multi-ethnic population of the United Arab Emirates on genomic medicine and genetic testing

INTRODUCTION

The adoption and implementation of genomic medicine and pharmacogenomics (PGx) in healthcare systems have been very slow and limited worldwide. Major barriers to knowledge translation into clinical practice lie in the level of literacy of the public of genetics and genomics. The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) multi-ethnic communities toward genomic medicine and genetic testing.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study using validated questionnaires was distributed to the participants. Descriptive statistics were performed, and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with knowledge of genomics.

RESULTS

757 individuals completed the survey. Only 7% of the participants had a good knowledge level in genetics and genomics (95% CI 5.3-9.0%). However, 76.9% of the participants were willing to take a genetic test if their relatives had a genetic disease. In addition, the majority indicated that they would disclose their genetic test results to their spouses (61.5%) and siblings (53.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study sets the stage for the stakeholders to plan health promotion and educational campaigns to improve the genomic literacy of the community of the UAE as part of their efforts for implementing precision and personalized medicine in the country.

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of Women in the UAE Towards Breast and Cervical Cancer Prevention: A Cross-Sectional Study

INTRODUCTION

Breast and cervical cancers represent two important causes of cancer-associated deaths in females. Uptake in prevention towards these cancers remains low in the United Arab Emirates.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to understand the knowledge, attitudes and practices of females residing in the Al Ain city, UAE, towards cervical and breast cancer prevention.

METHODS

This cross-sectional survey was conducted with 300 women, aged 30 years and above. The primary outcome measure was cervical and breast cancer prevention knowledge. The knowledge was queried through a number of items, with the resulting aggregate scores categorized into good and low knowledge. Chi-square test was conducted to investigate the association between prevention knowledge and sociodemographic factors. Additional outcomes included attitude towards and uptake of cervical and breast cancer screening.

RESULTS

Of the participants surveyed, 36.7% had good knowledge on breast cancer prevention, while 5.3% on cervical cancer prevention. Although the majority of the participants believed that prevention methods could save lives, they reported negative attitudes, considering screening unnecessary and painful. The self-reported screening uptake was 23% and 31.3% for mammography and Pap smear, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The study reported that the knowledge and uptake of women was low for both breast and cervical cancer prevention. Targeted campaigns not only to increase knowledge but also to resolve misconceptions to change negative attitudes may lead to an increase in uptake.

Reflections on medical student evaluations of a public health clerkship

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the need for skilled medical practitioners in public health, and outbreak investigations. The College of Medicine and Health Sciences at the United Arab Emirates University (UAEU) introduced a clerkship in public health constituting theoretical and practical sessions to 5th year medical students in 2015. The aim of this study is to explore the satisfaction of the students with the public health clerkship which is crucial for the assessment and reformation of the taught curriculum.

Methods

A cross-sectional, post-evaluation analysis was conducted from the period 2015-2022. The evaluation questionnaire was conducted via an online university system. The survey contained 5 themes: pre-course instructions, structure of the clerkship, academic staff, activities, and learning outcomes. Ethics approval was secured from the Social-IRB of the UAEU. We used SPSS version 26 to analyze the data using independent t-test and ANOVA.

Results

One hundred and seventy four students (27.4% response rate) participated in the study. Overall, the students had an average satisfaction score of 2.86 out of 4. The majority of the students reported having a good understanding of public health (93.7%), improving their oral presentation skills (91.2%), and developing new skills (87.2%). Furthermore, more than 9 in 10 students (96.1%) reported that the program expanded their knowledge, skills, and confidence. The mass (90.2%) of students agreed that the clerkship content was covered in sufficient depth, majority of the students agreed that they had received enough information about the clerkship before it started (74.6%), majority of the students agreed that the faculty were interested in their personal development (86.1%) The students who completed the clerkship prior to the COVID-19 pandemic had a statistically significant (P = 0.02) higher average rating (72.8%) than students who completed the clerkship during the pandemic (71.1%).

Discussion

Medical students at the UAEU were satisfied with the activities and delivery of the public health clerkship and found it rewarding. Conducting needs assessment and proposal writing provided them with the knowledge, skills, and confidence to conduct research in their career. These findings may be useful in helping and support other institutes to plan and develop a clerkship in the public health.

35 GERIATRIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE (GEM)’ PEARLS AND PITFALLS’- AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO EDUCATION

Background

In recent years we have seen increased awareness of the terms ‘frailty’ and ‘GEM’ in many of our Emergency Departments (ED). A clear understanding of these terms within the context of ED is essential to provide a holistic care and to best meet the needs of older adults. It has been highlighted internationally that current training programmes do not sufficiently address learning needs of trainees to optimise care of this cohort of patients. The European Geriatric Medicine Society and the European Society for Emergency Medicine has attempted to address this gap through the introduction of a core GEM curriculum in 2016, however, at a local level many EDs are not utilising this resource for a number of reasons including lack of awareness and prioritisation of other local learning needs as determined by specialist training. To address the GEM learning needs at a local level an initiative idea was trialled in the form of a GEM teaching wall with dedicated monthly topics chosen from the above curriculum.

Methods

The initiative was led by a Senior Physiotherapist working on the Frailty Intervention Therapy Team and a Senior House Officer (SHO) working in ED with collaboration from other ED members as identified. A brainstorming session took place to identify potential topics. A poster was created by the project leads each month focusing on a core topic including an overview on the subject, national/international guidelines and top tips how to best manage in ED. Relevant team members contributed to different topics. Monthly posters were displayed in the ED.

Results

The project has been successfully running for 4 months with topics including Abdominal pain, Silver trauma Delirium and Falls.

Conclusion

GEM teaching is a cornerstone of successful management of older adults presenting to our EDs. Novel MDT teaching approaches can address the identified learning gap in this area and highlight international recommendations with minimum cost.

Estimate of Occupational Exposure to Carcinogens among Migrant Workers in the United Arab Emirates: A Cross-Sectional Study

Occupational illnesses, such as cancer, cause more deaths each year than occupational accidents. Occupational carcinogens include physical, chemical, biological and organizational hazards. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), migrant workers account for 80% of labor. Being sometimes employed as unskilled workers and more willing to work in demanding jobs, their vulnerability and exposure may be increased. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of occupational exposure to workplace carcinogens among migrant workers in the UAE. A sample of employees working in construction, cleaning, dry cleaning, mechanic workshops and hair salons were recruited and interviewed. Using OccIDEAS (an online assessment tool), participants were asked questions about their demographics, work history and regular tasks. Exposure to various carcinogens was estimated using the in-built algorithms of OccIDEAS. A sample of 1778 workers was included. The sample consisted of workers from Bangladesh (19.2%), India (31%), Nepal (4.7%), Pakistan (29.9%) and the Philippines (4.8%), with the rest from other nationalities. Overall, the prevalence of probable exposure was considerable, with the highest among drivers (96%) and the lowest among laundry workers (52%). Moderate to high exposure was found to 20 different carcinogens. Self-rated health among those who were exposed to carcinogens was significantly lower than among those not exposed (AOR = 0.783, 95% CI [0.638-0.961]). Exposure to several different carcinogens is relatively common in the UAE among migrant workers. Further strengthening policies and the implementation of tailored interventions are needed to prevent exposure to occupational carcinogens and, consequently, to combat occupational cancer in the UAE.