1
|
Bender RG, Sirota SB, Swetschinski LR, Dominguez RMV, Novotney A, Wool EE, Ikuta KS, Vongpradith A, Rogowski ELB, Doxey M, Troeger CE, Albertson SB, Ma J, He J, Maass KL, A.F.Simões E, Abdoun M, Abdul Aziz JM, Abdulah DM, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Aburuz S, Adepoju AV, Adha R, Adikusuma W, Adra S, Afraz A, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed H, Ahmed A, Akinosoglou K, AL-Ahdal TMA, Al-amer RM, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alemi H, Al-Gheethi AAS, Ali A, Ali SSS, Alqahtani JS, AlQudah M, Al-Tawfiq JA, Al-Worafi YM, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amuasi JH, Anil A, Anyanwu PE, Arafat M, Areda D, Arefnezhad R, Atalell KA, Ayele F, Azzam AY, Babamohamadi H, Babin FX, Bahurupi Y, Baker S, Banik B, Barchitta M, Barqawi HJ, Basharat Z, Baskaran P, Batra K, Batra R, Bayileyegn NS, Beloukas A, Berkley JA, Beyene KA, Bhargava A, Bhattacharjee P, Bielicki JA, Bilalaga MM, Bitra VR, Brown CS, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Carr S, Chahine Y, Chattu VK, Chichagi F, Chopra H, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Dadana S, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darban I, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dashtkoohi M, Dekker DM, Delgado-Enciso I, Devanbu VGC, Dhama K, Diao N, Do THP, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dziedzic AM, Eckmanns T, Ed-Dra A, Efendi F, Eftekharimehrabad A, Eyre DW, Fahim A, Feizkhah A, Felton TW, Ferreira N, Flor LS, Gaihre S, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Geffers C, Gerema U, Ghaffari K, Goldust M, Goleij P, Guan SY, Gudeta MD, Guo C, Gupta VB, Gupta I, Habibzadeh F, Hadi NR, Haeuser E, Hailu WB, Hajibeygi R, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haller S, Hamiduzzaman M, Hanifi N, Hansel J, Hasnain MS, Haubold J, Hoan NQ, Huynh HH, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Jafarzadeh A, Jairoun AA, Jalili M, Jomehzadeh N, Joshua CE, Kabir MA, Kamal Z, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karimi Behnagh A, Kaur N, Kaur H, Khamesipour F, Khan MN, Khan suheb MZ, Khanal V, Khatab K, Khatib MN, Kim G, Kim K, Kitila ATT, Komaki S, Krishan K, Krumkamp R, Kuddus MA, Kurniasari MD, Lahariya C, Latifinaibin K, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Lee SW, LEPAPE A, Lerango TL, Li MC, Mahboobipour AA, Malhotra K, Mallhi TH, Manoharan A, Martinez-Guerra BA, Mathioudakis AG, Mattiello R, May J, McManigal B, McPhail SM, Mekene Meto T, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Meo SA, Merati M, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga L, Minh LHN, Misganaw A, Mishra V, Misra AK, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammed M, Mohammed M, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moore CE, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mousavi P, Mulita F, Mulu AA, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Nainu F, Nair TS, Nargus S, Negaresh M, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen VT, Nikolouzakis TK, Noman EA, Nri-Ezedi CA, Odetokun IA, Okwute PG, Olana MD, Olanipekun TO, Olasupo OO, Olivas-Martinez A, Ordak M, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Ouyahia A, Padubidri JR, Pak A, Pandey A, Pantazopoulos I, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Peprah P, Pham HT, Poddighe D, Pollard A, Ponce-De-Leon A, Prakash PY, Prates EJS, Quan NK, Raee P, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rahmati M, Ramasamy SK, Ranjan S, Rao IR, Rashid AM, Rattanavong S, Ravikumar N, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Reiner RC, Reyes LF, Roberts T, Rodrigues M, Rosenthal VD, Roy P, Runghien T, Saeed U, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahoo SS, Sahu M, Sakshaug JW, Salami AA, Saleh MA, Salehi omran H, Sallam M, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Sanjeev RK, Sarasmita MA, Saravanan A, Sartorius B, Saulam J, Schumacher AE, Seyedi SA, Shafie M, Shahid S, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shamshirgaran MA, Shastry RP, Sherchan SP, Shiferaw D, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Sinto R, Sood A, Sorensen RJD, Stergachis A, Stoeva TZ, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Tamuzi JL, Temsah MH, Tessema MBT, Thangaraju P, Tran NM, Tran NH, Tumurkhuu M, Ty SS, Udoakang AJ, Ulhaq I, Umar TP, Umer AA, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Van den Eynde J, Walson JL, Waqas M, Xing Y, Yadav MK, Yahya G, Yon DK, Zahedi Bialvaei A, Zakham F, Zeleke AM, Zhai C, Zhang Z, Zhang H, Zielińska M, Zheng P, Aravkin AY, Vos T, Hay SI, Mosser JF, Lim SS, Naghavi M, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Infect Dis 2024:S1473-3099(24)00176-2. [PMID: 38636536 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00176-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. METHODS We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens. FINDINGS Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths. INTERPRETATION Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).
Collapse
|
2
|
Ferrari AJ, Santomauro DF, Aali A, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi A, Abdullahi A, Abegaz KH, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abualruz H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Ackerman IN, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adepoju AV, Adewuyi HO, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Afzal S, Agodi A, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ajami M, Akinosoglou K, Akkaif MA, Al Hasan SM, Alalalmeh SO, Al-Aly Z, Albashtawy M, Aldridge RW, Alemu MD, Alemu YM, Alene KA, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alharrasi M, Alhassan RK, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Al-Marwani S, Almazan JU, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Altaany Z, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Alwafi H, Al-Wardat MS, Al-Worafi YM, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Ansari H, Antony CM, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyanwu PE, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Araki DT, Aravkin AY, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Ashbaugh C, Ashemo MY, Ashraf M, Asika MO, Askari E, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awotidebe AW, Awuviry-Newton K, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bah S, Bai R, Baker JL, Bakkannavar SM, Bako AT, Balakrishnan S, Bam K, Banik PC, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Bashiri Aliabadi S, Basiru A, Basu S, Basu S, Bathini PP, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayileyegn NS, Behnam B, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bell ML, Bello OO, Beloukas A, Bensenor IM, Berezvai Z, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Boxe C, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Breitner S, Brenner H, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Byun J, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Capodici A, Carr S, Carreras G, Carugno A, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cerin E, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen NM, Cheng ETW, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Cho WCS, Choi S, Chong B, Chong YY, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christensen SWM, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chutiyami M, Claassens MM, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Conde J, Cortesi PA, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalaba MA, Damiani G, Das JK, Das S, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De Leo D, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, DeCleene NK, Deeba F, Degenhardt L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demetriades AK, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desai HD, Desai R, Deuba K, Dhama K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhingra S, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz LA, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Dirac MA, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dohare S, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorsey ER, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Dube J, Dumith SC, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, ElGohary GMT, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, ELNahas G, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Eshrati B, Estep K, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faro A, Farrokhi P, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferreira N, Ferreira PH, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Force LM, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Galali Y, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganie MA, Ganiyani MA, Gardner WM, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TBB, Gebremeskel TG, Gela YY, Georgescu SR, Getachew Obsa A, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, Ghadirian F, Ghailan KY, Ghajar A, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghazy RM, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani M, Ghotbi E, Gibson RM, Gill TK, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goharinezhad S, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gona PN, Gorini G, Goulart AC, Grada A, Grivna M, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta I, Gupta M, Gupta R, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hafiz A, Hagins H, Halboub ES, Halimi A, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamilton EB, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Haro JM, Hartvigsen J, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasanian M, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Helfer B, Hemmati M, Hendrie D, Henson CA, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Hon J, Hossain MM, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsu JM, Huang J, Hugo FN, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh CK, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Iannucci VC, Ihler AL, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Irham LM, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyer M, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jeyakumar A, Jha AK, Jiang H, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamenov K, Kamyari N, Kanagasabai T, Kandel H, Kanmanthareddy AR, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karim A, Karimi SE, Karimi Y, Kasraei H, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Keshtkar K, Kesse-Guyot E, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid A, Khalid N, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan I, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khatatbeh MM, Khater AM, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Kifle ZD, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Koh HY, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulkarni V, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lafranconi A, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Le HH, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TDT, Leasher JL, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Lenzi J, Leong E, Leung J, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Y, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lindstrom M, Linn S, Liu G, Liu R, Liu S, Liu W, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, Lo CH, López-Bueno R, Loreche AM, Lorenzovici L, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lunevicius R, Lusk JB, lv H, Ma ZF, Machairas N, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Magaña Gómez JA, Maghazachi AA, Maharjan P, Mahasha PW, Maheri M, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Majeed A, Makris KC, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri P, Mansournia MA, Mantilla Herrera AM, Mantovani LG, Manu E, Marateb HR, Mardi P, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini D, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathieson S, Mathioudakis AG, Mattumpuram J, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McPhail MA, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meresa HA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Michalek IM, Miller PA, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minh LHN, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei R, Misganaw A, Mishra AK, Mitchell PB, Mittal C, Moazen B, Moberg ME, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohr RM, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mrejen M, Msherghi A, Mubarik S, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Murlimanju BV, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Nainu F, Nair S, Najmuldeen HHR, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narayana AI, Nargus S, Nascimento GG, Nashwan AJ, Nasrollahizadeh A, Nasrollahizadeh A, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nesbit OD, Netsere HB, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HQ, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nurrika D, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Oguntade AS, Oguta JO, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olasupo OO, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar HA, Omer GL, Omonisi AEE, Onie S, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Palicz T, Palladino C, Pan F, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantea Stoian AM, Pardhan S, Parikh RR, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Patel J, Patel SK, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Pereira MO, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Petri WA, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Piracha ZZ, Pirouzpanah S, Plass D, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prakash V, Prasad M, Prates EJS, Priscilla T, Pritchett N, Puri P, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Rabiee Rad M, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Rahim MJ, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani S, Rahmanian M, Rahmawaty S, Rajaa S, Ramadan MM, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao K, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rashidi MM, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo C, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Reifels L, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reshmi B, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei Hachesu P, Rezaeian M, Rickard J, Rodrigues CF, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rotimi K, Rout HS, Roy B, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, S N C, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Sallam M, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Sarikhani Y, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathyanarayan A, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sedighi M, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Setoguchi S, Seylani A, Shadid J, Shafie M, Shah H, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shayan AM, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shifa JE, Shiferaw D, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shitaye NA, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shokati Eshkiki Z, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh M, Singh P, Skou ST, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Solanki R, Soliman SSM, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Stark BA, Starodubova AV, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Steinmetz JD, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Subedi NS, Subramaniyan V, Suemoto CK, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sundström J, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabche C, Tabish M, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tandukar S, Tang H, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thayakaran R, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Thum CCC, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran JT, Tran MTN, Tran NM, Tran NH, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tyrovolas S, Udoh A, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Umar TP, Undurraga EA, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Unsworth CA, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Van den Eynde J, Varga O, Varma RP, Vart P, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Vongpradith A, Waheed Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wang N, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Wassie EG, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilandika A, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wimo A, Woldegebreal DH, Wolf AW, Wong YJ, Woolf AD, Wu C, Wu F, Wu X, Wu Z, Wulf Hanson S, Xia Y, Xiao H, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadav L, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoubi S, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yaribeygi H, Yazdanpanah MH, Ye P, Yehualashet SS, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yigzaw ZA, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu Y, Yusuf H, Zahid MH, Zakham F, Zaki L, Zaki N, Zaman BA, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zar HJ, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang H, Zhang N, Zhang Y, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhong P, Zhou J, Zhu Z, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zimsen SRM, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Zyoud SH, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00757-8. [PMID: 38642570 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00757-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
3
|
Naghavi M, Ong KL, Aali A, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe SS, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Accrombessi MMK, Adal TG, Adamu AA, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyinka DA, Adeyomoye OI, Admass BAA, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agasthi P, Aggarwal M, Aghamiri S, Agide FD, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam N, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al-Azzam S, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Aldawsari KA, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alema HB, Alemayohu MA, Alemi S, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alikhani R, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljasir MAM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani L, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqalyoobi S, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Aqeel M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Aremu A, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asadi-Lari M, Asgedom AA, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Aslani A, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atlaw HW, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awedew AF, Aweke AM, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azzam AY, B DB, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bako AT, Bakshi RK, Balakrishnan S, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik PC, Bansal H, Bansal K, Barbic F, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basiru A, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basting AVL, Basu S, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Beghi M, Behboudi E, Behera P, Behnoush AH, Behzadifar M, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Béjot Y, Belay SA, Belete CM, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bender RG, Bensenor IM, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Berhie AY, Berice BN, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas B, Bitaraf S, Bitew BD, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boampong MS, Bobirca AV, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Borzutzky A, Bouaoud S, Boustany A, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Brazo-Sayavera J, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton G, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalheiro CG, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Chang CK, Chang JC, Chanie GS, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chaurasia A, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen S, Cheng CY, Cheng ETW, Cherbuin N, Cheru WA, Chien JH, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chung E, Chung SC, Chutiyami M, Cindi Z, Cioffi I, Claassens MM, Claro RM, Coberly K, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Cortese S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Cousin E, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Cramer KM, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuadra-Hernández SM, Culbreth GT, Cullen P, Cunningham M, Curado MP, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalli LL, Damiani G, Darega Gela J, Das JK, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dastiridou A, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, de Luca K, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, Degenhardt L, Dehghan A, Deitesfeld L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Deng K, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deravi N, Dereje N, Dervenis N, Dervišević E, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dhulipala VR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Ding H, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Do THP, do Prado CB, Doaei S, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Dorsey ER, dos Santos WM, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Du M, Dube J, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, E'mar AR, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, Elbarazi I, Elema TB, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elilo LT, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Esezobor CI, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Esubalew H, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fadaka AO, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Fahimi S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh A, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Faro A, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrante D, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Feyisa BR, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Florin BT, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan B, Foroutan M, Forthun I, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Fowobaje KR, Francis KL, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galles NC, Gallus S, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Garg J, Garg N, Gautam RK, Gbadamosi SO, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel TG, Georgescu SR, Getachew T, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, Ghahramani S, Ghailan KY, Ghasemi MR, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghashghaee A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Ghimire A, Ghoba S, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golchin A, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomes NGM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Goyal A, Grada A, Graham SM, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Guimarães RA, Gulati S, Gunawardane DA, Gunturu S, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta MK, Gupta M, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gurmessa L, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi R, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hamilton EB, Han C, Han Q, Hanif A, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hanna F, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MT, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hashi A, Hasnain MS, Hassan I, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, He J, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Helfer B, Hendrie D, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hill CL, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh Adli A, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hsu RL, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Humayun A, Hundie TG, Hussain J, Hussain MA, Hussein NR, Hussien FM, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ibrahim KS, Iftikhar PM, Ijo D, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ikwegbue PC, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Inamdar S, Indriasih E, Iqhrammullah M, Iradukunda A, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jamshidi E, Janko MM, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jebai R, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jha AK, Jha RP, Jiang H, Jin Y, Johnson O, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Joshy G, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kadir DH, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamal VK, Kamarajah SK, Kamath R, Kamiab Z, Kamyari N, Kanagasabai T, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmanthareddy AR, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kannan S S, Kansal SK, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karanth SD, Karasneh RA, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karim A, Karimi SE, Karimi Behnagh A, Kashoo FZ, Kasnazani QHA, Kasraei H, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kaur N, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kazmi TH, Kebebew GM, Kebede AD, Kebede F, Keflie TS, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Kelly JT, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil AA, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan A, Khan G, Khan I, Khan IA, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khan ZA, Khan suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khorgamphar M, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosravi A, Khosravi MA, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim J, Kim K, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinzel KE, Kisa A, Kisa S, Klu D, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kocsis T, Koh DSQ, Kolahi AA, Kolves K, Kompani F, Koren G, Kosen S, Kostev K, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna H, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar A, Kumar H, Kumar M, Kumar R, Kumari M, Kumie FT, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kwarteng A, Kyriopoulos I, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lagat AK, Lager ACJ, Lahmar A, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lám J, Landrum KR, Lanfranchi F, Lang JJ, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Lauriola P, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Ledda C, Ledesma JR, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Z, Ligade VS, Likaka ATM, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lindstrom M, Linehan C, Liu C, Liu G, Liu J, Liu R, Liu S, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, Loftus MJ, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov PD, Loreche AM, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Madsen C, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Maghazachi AA, Maharaj SB, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi A, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudi R, Majeed A, Makhdoom IF, Malakan Rad E, Maled V, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra AK, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri P, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maqsood S, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marconi AM, Mardi P, Marino M, Marjani A, Martinez G, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini D, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Masaka A, Masrie A, Mathieson S, Mathioudakis AG, Mathur MR, Mattumpuram J, Matzopoulos R, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Medina JRC, Mediratta RP, Meena JK, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Meles GG, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengist B, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meresa HA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Meylakhs P, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Mir Mohammad Sadeghi P, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirzaei M, Misganaw A, Mishra A, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mobayen M, Moberg ME, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed H, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mojiri-Forushani H, Mokari A, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Molokhia M, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosser JF, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpolya EA, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musaigwa F, Musallam KM, Mustafa A, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Muthusamy R, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi P, Naheed A, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Nair S, Najmuldeen HHR, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Nasehi S, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nazri-Panjaki A, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nena E, Nepal S, Ng M, Nggada HA, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nielsen KR, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Oboh MA, Odetokun IA, Odogwu NM, O'Donnell MJ, Oduro MS, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunkoya A, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer GL, Ondayo MA, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Ordak M, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Ozten Y, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pan F, Pan HF, Pana A, Panda P, Panda-Jonas S, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Papadopoulou P, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Pasupula DK, Patel HM, Patel J, Patel SK, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Pestell RG, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Petri WA, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Piracha ZZ, Piradov MA, Pirouzpanah S, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Podder V, Poddighe D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Poluru R, Ponkilainen VT, Porru F, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prakasham TN, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Prieto Alhambra D, PRISCILLA TINA, Pritchett N, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Qiu S, Qureshi MF, Rabiee Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rajaa S, Rajput P, Rakovac I, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rasul A, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Rawlley B, Raza RZ, Razo C, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reifels L, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riaz MA, Ribeiro ALP, Rickard J, Riva HR, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues CF, Rodrigues M, Roever L, Rogowski ELB, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Romero-Rodríguez E, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rout HS, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S N C, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Sachdeva R, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian F, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaeinejad F, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahoo U, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sarasmita MA, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar T, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlaich MP, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sethi Y, Sha F, Shabany M, Shafaat A, Shafie M, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shah SM, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh A, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shetty A, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shin YH, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shitaye NA, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shokraneh F, Shokri A, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh G, Singh J, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Sinha DN, Sinto R, Siraj MS, Sirota SB, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Socea B, Sokhan A, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Spearman S, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Stanaway JD, Stanikzai MH, Stark BA, Starnes JR, Starodubova AV, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiner C, Steinmetz JD, Steiropoulos P, Stevanović A, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun HZ, Sun J, Sundström J, Sunkersing D, Sunnerhagen KS, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabish M, TADAKAMADLA JYOTHI, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taiba J, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tandukar S, Tang H, Tang HK, Tarigan IU, Tariku MK, Tariqujjaman M, Tarkang EE, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tefera YM, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesler R, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Tharwat S, Thayakaran R, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Thomson AM, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Thygesen LC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Titova MV, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Toriola AT, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran JT, Tran NM, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Uddin SMN, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umakanthan S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Unsworth CA, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, Van de Velde SM, Van den Eynde J, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verghese NA, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villanueva GI, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Viskadourou M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang N, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Ward P, Wassie EG, Watson S, Watson SLW, Weerakoon KG, Wei MY, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilandika A, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Woldegebreal DH, Wolf AW, Wolfe CDA, Wondimagegene YA, Wong YJ, Wongsin U, Wu AM, Wu C, Wu F, Wu X, Wu Z, Xia J, Xiao H, Xie Y, Xu S, Xu WD, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadollahpour A, Yamagishi K, Yang D, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yaribeygi H, Ye P, Yehualashet SS, Yesiltepe M, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yi S, Yigezu A, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yismaw MB, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, You Y, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuh FH, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zangiabadian M, Zar HJ, Zare I, Zarrintan A, Zeariya MGM, Zeinali Z, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu L, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zitoun OA, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Zuhlke LJ, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Wool EE, Murray CJL. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00367-2. [PMID: 38582094 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
4
|
Bourne RRA, Jonas JB, Friedman D, Nangia V, Bron A, Tapply I, Fernandes AG, Cicinelli MV, Arrigo A, Leveziel N, Resnikoff S, Taylor HR, Sedighi T, Bikbov MM, Braithwaite T, Cheng CY, Congdon N, Del Monte MA, Ehrlich JR, Fricke T, Furtado JM, Gazzard G, George R, Hartnett ME, Kahloun R, Kempen JH, Khairallah M, Khanna RC, Kim JE, Lansingh VC, Leasher J, Naidoo KS, Nowak M, Pesudovs K, Peto T, Ramulu P, Topouzis F, Tsilimbaris M, Wang YX, Wang N, Flaxman S, Bourne RRA, Jonas JB, Casson RJ, Friedman DS, Nangia V, Bron AM, Tapply I, Fernandes AG, Cicinelli MV, Leveziel N, Briant PS, Vos T, Resnikoff S, Abate YH, Abate MD, Dolatabadi ZA, Abdollahi M, Aboagye RG, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Adnani QES, Aghamiri S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmadieh H, Ahmadzadeh H, Ahmed A, Alfaar AS, Alinia C, Almidani L, Amu H, Androudi S, Anil A, Arabloo J, Areda D, Ashraf T, Bagherieh S, Baltatu OC, Baran MF, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bayileyegn NS, Bazvand F, Berhie AY, Bhatti JS, Bikbov M, Birck MG, Bitra VR, Bozic MM, Braithwaite T, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Cenderadewi M, Chattu VK, Coberly K, Dadras O, Dai X, Dascalu AM, Dastiridou A, Devanbu VGC, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Do THP, Do TC, Dziedzic AM, Ehrlich JR, Ekholuenetale M, Elhadi M, Emamian MH, Emamverdi M, Farrokhpour H, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Forouhari A, Fowobaje KR, Furtado JM, Gandhi AP, Gebregergis MWW, Goulart BNG, Gudeta MD, Gupta S, Gupta VK, Gupta VB, Heidari G, Hong SH, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Immurana M, Jayapal SK, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kahloun R, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Kasraei H, Kebebew GM, Kempen JH, KhalafAlla MT, Khanal S, Khatib MN, Krishan K, Lahariya C, Leasher JL, Lim SS, Marzo RR, Maugeri A, Meng Y, Mestrovic T, Mishra M, Mohamed NS, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momeni-Moghaddam H, Montazeri F, Mulita A, Murray CJL, Foodani MN, Naik GR, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negaresh M, Negash H, Nguyen DH, Oancea B, Olagunju AT, Olatubi MI, Osman WMS, Osuagwu UL, Padubidri JR, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Park S, Patel J, Perianayagam A, Pesudovs K, Pham HT, Prates EJS, Qattea I, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rapaka D, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Roy P, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Safi S, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Saravanan A, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Shamim MA, Shannawaz M, Shashamo BB, Shayan M, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Singh JA, Solomon Y, Sousa RARC, Tabatabaei SM, Tabish M, Ticoalu JHV, Toma TM, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Valizadeh R, Viskadourou M, Wassie GT, Wickramasinghe ND, Yon DK, You Y, Flaxman S, Steinmetz JD. Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020. Eye (Lond) 2024:10.1038/s41433-024-02995-5. [PMID: 38565601 DOI: 10.1038/s41433-024-02995-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals. METHODS A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60. RESULTS Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59). CONCLUSIONS Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.
Collapse
|
5
|
Steinmetz JD, Seeher KM, Schiess N, Nichols E, Cao B, Servili C, Cavallera V, Cousin E, Hagins H, Moberg ME, Mehlman ML, Abate YH, Abbas J, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Abdelmasseh M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abd-Rabu R, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abrha WA, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Adamu LH, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adekiya TA, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework T, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afzal S, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed JQ, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akade SE, Akbari M, Akbarialiabad H, Akhlaghi S, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemi RO, Akonde M, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, AL-Ahdal TMA, Al-amer RM, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Aldawsari KA, Alemi H, Alemi S, Algammal AM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali MM, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Ali Z, Alif SM, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljofan M, Aljunid SM, Alladi S, Almazan JU, Almustanyir S, Al-Omari B, Alqahtani JS, Alqasmi I, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Shahi Salman R, Altaany Z, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Amzat J, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Angappan D, Angesom TW, Anil A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwer R, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Ariffin H, Arifin H, Arkew M, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Aruleba RT, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asena TF, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Ashraf T, Atalell KA, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Avan A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayinde OO, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azizi Z, Azizian K, Azzam AY, Babaei M, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagherieh S, Bai R, Baig AA, Balakrishnan S, Balalla S, Baltatu OC, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banerjee I, Baran MF, Barboza MA, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrow A, Bashash D, Bashiri H, Bashiru HA, Basiru A, Basso JD, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Batra K, Baune BT, Bedi N, Begde A, Begum T, Behnam B, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Béjot Y, Bekele A, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Bemanalizadeh M, Bender RG, Benfor B, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berice B, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhadra A, Bhagat DS, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti R, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilalaga MM, Biswas A, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Boloor A, Braithwaite D, Brayne C, Brenner H, Briko A, Bringas Vega ML, Brown J, Budke CM, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Bustanji Y, Butt MH, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Cabral LS, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carvalho AF, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Casulli A, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cerin E, Chacón-Uscamaita PRU, Chan JSK, Chanie GS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chekol Abebe E, Chen H, Chen J, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chidambaram SB, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chitheer A, Chong YY, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comachio J, Conde J, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dabbagh Ohadi MA, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, D'Amico E, Danawi HA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwish AH, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, De la Hoz FP, de la Torre-Luque A, De Leo D, Dean FE, Dehghan A, Dehghan A, Dejene H, Demant D, Demetriades AK, Demissie S, Deng X, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dhama K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dibas M, Ding DD, Dinu M, Dirac MA, Diress M, Do TC, Do THP, Doan KDK, Dodangeh M, Doheim MF, Dokova KG, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dutta S, Dziedzic AM, Edinur HA, Eissazade N, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, Elahi Najafi MA, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Ellenbogen RG, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Endres M, Esezobor CI, Eskandarieh S, Fadaei A, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Faramarzi A, Fares J, Farjoud Kouhanjani M, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fathi M, Fathi S, Fatima SAF, Feizkhah A, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Firouraghi N, Fischer F, Fonseca AC, Force LM, Fornari A, Foroutan B, Fukumoto T, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Galali Y, Galehdar N, Gan Q, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Gardner WM, Garg N, Gau SY, Gautam RK, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel GG, Gebreslassie HG, Getacher L, Ghaderi Yazdi B, Ghadirian F, Ghaffarpasand F, Ghanbari R, Ghasemi M, Ghazy RM, Ghimire S, Gholami A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghotbi E, Ghozy S, Gialluisi A, Gill PS, Glasstetter LM, Gnedovskaya EV, Golchin A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gomes-Neto M, Goulart AC, Goyal A, Gray RJ, Grivna M, Guadie HA, Guan B, Guarducci G, Guicciardi S, Gunawardane DA, Guo H, Gupta B, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Hachinski V, Haddadi R, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Haep N, Haile TG, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Halwani R, Hameed S, Hamiduzzaman M, Hammoud A, Han H, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Hao J, Harapan H, Hareru HE, Hargono A, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hartman NN, Hasaballah AI, Hasan F, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hassan A, Hassan S, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hegazy MI, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoffman HJ, Holla R, Hopf KP, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain MB, Hossain S, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MN, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilaghi M, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Iravanpour F, Islam SMS, Ismail F, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyer M, Jaan A, Jacob L, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafari M, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jamora RDG, Jana S, Javadi N, Javed S, Javeed S, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jiang H, Johnson CO, Johnson WD, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kabito GG, Kadashetti V, Kafi F, Kalani R, Kalantar F, Kaliyadan F, Kamath A, Kamath S, Kanchan T, Kandel A, Kandel H, Kanmodi KK, Karajizadeh M, Karami J, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karimi A, Karimi H, Karimi Behnagh A, Kasraei H, Kassebaum NJ, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kaur N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Keykhaei M, Khadembashiri MA, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khamesipour F, Khammarnia M, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khan YH, Khan Suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khanna T, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khateri S, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khonji MS, khorashadizadeh F, Khormali M, Khubchandani J, Kian S, Kim G, Kim J, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimäki M, Kochhar S, Kolahi AA, Koly KN, Kompani F, Koroshetz WJ, Kosen S, Kourosh Arami M, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus MA, Kumar A, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kumsa NB, Kundu S, Kurniasari MD, Kusuma D, Kuttikkattu A, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Ladan MA, Lahariya C, Laksono T, Lal DK, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lami FH, Landires I, Langguth B, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Lau KMM, Laurens MB, Lawal BK, Le LKD, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Leonardi M, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Ligade VS, Lim SS, Linehan C, Liu C, Liu J, Liu W, Lo CH, Lo WD, Lobo SW, Logroscino G, Lopes G, Lopukhov PD, Lorenzovici L, Lorkowski S, Loureiro JA, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lutzky Saute R, Ma ZF, Mabrok M, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghazachi AA, Maghbouli N, Mahjoub S, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Malagón-Rojas JN, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Manilal A, Mansouri V, Mansournia MA, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maroufi SF, Martinez-Raga J, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, März W, Marzo RR, Massano J, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathews E, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Meena JK, Mehndiratta MM, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Mendoza-Cano O, Menezes RG, Merati M, Meretoja A, Merkin A, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Mihretie ET, Minh LHN, Mirfakhraie R, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei M, Misganaw A, Misra S, Mithra P, Mizana BA, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi H, Mohammadi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadshahi M, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mojiri-forushani H, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Möller H, Monasta L, Moniruzzaman M, Montazeri F, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Motaghinejad M, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mughal F, Mukoro GD, Mulita A, Mulita F, Musaigwa F, Mustafa A, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nambi G, Namdar Areshtanab H, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Naser AY, Nashwan AJJ, Nasoori H, Nasreldein A, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Nayak BP, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negaresh M, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nematollahi MH, Nesbit OD, Newton CRJ, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen NTT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Niranjan V, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Oancea B, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Ogunsakin RE, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olana MD, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Omar Bali A, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Orji AU, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Osuagwu UL, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Owolabi MO, P A MP, Pacheco-Barrios K, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palange PN, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pan F, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandian JD, Pangaribuan HU, Pantazopoulos I, Pardhan S, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Patel J, Patil S, Patoulias D, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pereira DM, Pereira J, Pereira MO, Peres MFP, Perico N, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HT, Phillips MR, Pinilla-Monsalve GD, Piradov MA, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polat B, Poluru R, Pond CD, Poudel GR, Pouramini A, Pourbagher-Shahri AM, Pourfridoni M, Pourtaheri N, Prakash PY, Prakash S, Prakash V, Prates EJS, Pritchett N, Purnobasuki H, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qian G, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafique I, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Rahati MM, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimifard M, Rahman MO, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmani Youshanlouei H, Rahmati M, Raj Moolambally S, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Ramadan H, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rancic N, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rapaka D, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rashidi MM, Rashidi Alavijeh M, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rawaf S, Razo C, Redwan EMM, Rekabi Bana A, Remuzzi G, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riad A, Robinson SR, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rogowski ELB, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roy P, Roy Pramanik K, Rubagotti E, Ruiz MA, Russ TC, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber K, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sacco S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeed U, Safdarian M, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Salehi Omran H, Salem MR, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanadgol N, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Santomauro DF, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saravanan A, Sarveazad A, Satpathy M, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Scarmeas N, Schlaich MP, Schuermans A, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Selvaraj S, Sendekie AK, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Serban D, Sergindo MT, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seylani A, Shabani M, Shabany M, Shafie M, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahraki-Sanavi F, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shaji KS, Sham S, Shama ATT, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Sharath M, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharma M, Sharma R, Shashamo BB, Shayan M, Sheikhi RA, Shekhar S, Shen J, Shenoy SM, Shetty PH, Shiferaw DS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shokri F, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siankam Tankwanchi AB, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Sinaei E, Singh BB, Singh G, Singh P, Singh S, Sirota SB, Sivakumar S, Sohag AAM, Solanki R, Soleimani H, Solikhah S, Solomon Y, Solomon Y, Song S, Song Y, Sotoudeh H, Spartalis M, Stark BA, Starnes JR, Starodubova AV, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Sunny A, Susianti H, Swain CK, Szeto MD, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabai S, Tabish M, Taheri M, Tahvildari A, Tajbakhsh A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JJLL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tareke M, Tarigan IU, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Tavasol A, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye AH, Tesfaye EG, Tesler R, Thakali O, Thangaraju P, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas NK, Thrift AG, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Toghroli R, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran NM, Tran NH, Tran PV, Tromans SJ, Truelsen TC, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tualeka AR, Tufa DG, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Ulhaq I, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Umapathi KK, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Vaithinathan AG, Vakilian A, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Vinueza Veloz AF, Viskadourou M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Volovat SR, Vu LT, Vujcic IS, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Wahood W, Walde MT, Wang F, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Waris A, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willekens B, Wilner LB, Winkler AS, Wolfe CDA, Wu AM, Wulf Hanson S, Xu S, Xu X, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoubi S, Yahya G, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yehualashet SS, Yeshaneh A, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yusuf H, Zadey S, Zahedi M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zali A, Zamagni G, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zangiabadian M, Zarghami A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zegeye ZB, Zeukeng F, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhou H, Zhu B, Zhumagaliuly A, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zoladl M, Murray CJL, Ong KL, Feigin VL, Vos T, Dua T. Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Neurol 2024; 23:344-381. [PMID: 38493795 PMCID: PMC10949203 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(24)00038-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2023] [Revised: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 01/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
6
|
Schumacher AE, Kyu HH, Aali A, Abbafati C, Abbas J, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abdurehman AM, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz TM, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abhilash ES, Abiodun OO, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abrigo MRM, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna JM, Adair T, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adegboye OA, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyomoye OI, Adha R, Adibi A, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Agasthi P, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akalu GT, Akara EM, Akinosoglou K, Akkala S, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Al Homsi A, Al Qadire M, Ala M, Aladelusi TO, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalalmeh SO, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam Z, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Aldridge RW, Alemi S, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali BA, Ali H, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Ali Z, Alian Samakkhah S, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Aligol M, Alimi R, Aliyi AA, Al-Jumaily A, Aljunid SM, Almahmeed W, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Alonso N, Alqahtani JS, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Alvi FJ, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Alzoubi KH, Amare AT, Ameyaw EK, Amhare AF, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Aminian Dehkordi J, Amiri S, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amzat J, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angappan D, Anil A, Anjum A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa IA, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Appiah SCY, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arabzadeh Bahri R, Arab-Zozani M, Arafat M, Araújo AM, Aravkin AY, Aremu A, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Armocida B, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Arulappan J, Aruleba IT, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asgary S, Ashemo MY, Ashraf M, Asika MO, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Attia S, Aujayeb A, Avan A, Awotidebe AW, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Ayele GM, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azhar GS, Aziz S, Azzam AY, Babashahi M, Babu AS, Badar M, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bai J, Bai R, Baker JL, Bakkannavar SM, Bako AT, Balakrishnan S, Balogun SA, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik B, Banik PC, Bansal H, Barati S, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barr RD, Barrero LH, Basharat Z, Bashir AIJ, Bashiru HA, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basu S, Batra K, Batra R, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Begum T, Behboudi E, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Belgaumi UI, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berezvai Z, Berman AE, Bermudez ANC, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene HB, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Binmadi N, Bintoro BS, Biondi A, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas RK, Bitaraf S, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Boampong MS, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bolarinwa OA, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borodo SB, Borschmann R, Botero Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boudalia S, Boyko EJ, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Britton G, Browne AJ, Brunoni AR, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cai T, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cardenas CA, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cederroth CR, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chacón-Uscamaita PRU, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chan JSK, Chang CK, Charalampous P, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chavula MP, Cheema HA, Chen AT, Chen H, Chen L, Chen MX, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chew DS, Chi G, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho SMJ, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhary R, Chowdhury R, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chung SC, Cini KI, Clark CCT, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Conti S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Cousin E, Cowden RG, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Culbreth GT, Cullen P, Cunningham M, da Silva e Silva D, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai Z, Dalal K, Dalli LL, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Daneshvar S, Darwesh AM, Das JK, Das S, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, Debele AT, Degenhardt L, Dehbandi R, Deitesfeld L, Delgado-Enciso I, Delgado-Ortiz L, Demant D, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Desai R, Deuba K, Devanbu VGC, Dey S, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dima A, Ding DD, Dirac MA, Dixit A, Dixit SG, Do TC, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dodangeh M, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dorsey ER, dos Santos WM, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Douiri A, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Dumith SC, Dunachie SJ, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dutta S, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Ebenezer O, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Ed-Dra A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Eghdami S, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekpor E, Ekundayo TC, El Arab RA, El Morsi DAW, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emami Zeydi A, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Eshetie TC, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Estep K, Etaee F, Eze UA, Fabin N, Fadaka AO, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahimi S, Falzone L, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Farjoud Kouhanjani M, Faro A, Farrokhpour H, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Fekadu G, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrante D, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Florin BT, Folayan MO, Foley KM, Fomenkov AA, Force LM, Fornari C, Foroutan B, Foschi M, Francis KL, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaihre S, Gaipov A, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galehdar N, Gallus S, Gan Q, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Garg J, Gau SY, Gautam P, Gautam RK, Gazzelloni F, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TB, Gerema U, Getachew ME, Getachew T, Gething PW, Ghafourifard M, Ghahramani S, Ghailan KY, Ghajar A, Ghanbarnia MJ, Ghasemi M, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Ghimire S, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghozali G, Ghozy S, Ghuge AD, Gialluisi A, Gibson RM, Gil AU, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Goel A, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golestanfar A, Golinelli D, Gona PN, Goudarzi H, Goudarzian AH, Goyal A, Greenhalgh S, Grivna M, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gunawardane DA, Gunturu S, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta IR, Gupta RD, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Hachinski V, Haddadi M, Haddadi R, Haep N, Hajj Ali A, Halboub ES, Halim SA, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamidi S, Hamiduzzaman M, Hammoud A, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan F, Hasan I, Hasan MT, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hasanpour- Dehkordi A, Hassan AM, Hassan A, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassanipour S, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hbid Y, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Helfer B, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hettiarachchi D, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoffman HJ, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MB, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MN, Hugo FN, Hultström M, Hussain J, Hussain S, Hussein NR, Huy LD, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Idowu OO, Ijo D, Ikuta KS, Ilaghi M, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Inbaraj LR, Iradukunda A, Iravanpour F, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iwu-Jaja CJ, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jakovljevic M, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R, Jamshidi E, Jani CT, Janko MM, Jatau AI, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jema AT, Jemere DM, Jeong W, Jha AK, Jha RP, Ji JS, Jiang H, Jin Y, Jin Y, Johnson O, Jomehzadeh N, Jones DP, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir H, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kakodkar PV, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamath A, Kamireddy A, Kanagasabai T, Kandel H, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karami Matin B, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karim A, Karimi H, Karimi SE, Karimi Behnagh A, Karkhah S, Karna AK, Kashoo FZ, Kasraei H, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Katamreddy A, Katikireddi SV, Katoto PDMC, Kauppila JH, Kaur N, Kaydi N, Kayibanda JF, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kazeminia S, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Keykhaei M, Khadembashiri MM, Khadembashiri MA, Khafaie MA, Khajuria H, Khalafi M, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan G, Khan I, Khan IA, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khan T, Khan suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Kheirallah KA, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khosrowjerdi M, Khubchandani J, Khusun H, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim J, Kimokoti RW, Kinzel KE, Kiross GT, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kiss JB, Kivimäki M, Klu D, Knudsen AKS, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Kosen S, Kostev K, Kotnis AL, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishna H, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kubeisy CM, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kujan O, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar H, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kumar S, Kumari M, Kurmanova A, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kutluk T, Kuttikkattu A, Kyei EF, Kyriopoulos I, La Vecchia C, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lahmar A, Lai DTC, Laksono T, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lamnisos D, Lan T, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latif M, Latifinaibin K, Lauriola P, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Legesse SM, Leigh J, Lenzi J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Z, Libra M, Ligade VS, Likaka ATM, Lim LL, Lin RT, Lin S, Lioutas VA, Listl S, Liu J, Liu S, Liu X, Livingstone KM, Llanaj E, Lo CH, Loreche AM, Lorenzovici L, Lotfi M, Lotfizadeh M, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Ma J, Ma S, Ma ZF, Mabrok M, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madsen C, Magaña Gómez JA, Maghazachi AA, Maharaj SB, Maharjan P, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudi M, Makram OM, Malagón-Rojas JN, Malakan Rad E, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra AK, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malinga LA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manla Y, Mannan F, Mansoori Y, Mansour A, Mansouri V, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marconi AM, Mardi P, Marino M, Marjani A, Marrugo Arnedo CA, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins CA, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Mate KKV, Matei CN, Mathioudakis AG, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, May EA, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail MA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Mediratta RP, Meena JK, Mehari M, Mehlman ML, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehrotra R, Mekonnen MM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mindlin SN, Minelli G, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Minja NW, Mirdamadi N, Mirghafourvand M, Mirica A, Mirinezhad SK, Mirmosayyeb O, Mirutse MK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei M, Misgana T, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mittal M, Moazen B, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammad-pour S, Mohammadshahi M, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Mokhtarzadehazar P, Momenzadeh K, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moradpour F, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosaddeghi Heris R, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Mostafavi H, Mostofinejad A, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mukoro GD, Mulita A, Mulita F, Muniyandi M, Munjal K, Musaigwa F, Musallam KM, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Myung W, Nabhan AF, Nafukho FM, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Naimzada MD, Nair S, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Naser AY, Nasiri MJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nayyar AK, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negash H, Negero AK, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nematollahi MH, Nena E, Nepal S, Nesbit OD, Newton CRJ, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen TT, Nguyen VT, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Nizam MA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norouzian Baghani A, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunsakin RE, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okidi L, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olanipekun TO, Olatubi MI, Olivas-Martinez A, Oliveira GMM, Oliver S, Olorukooba AA, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Oluwatunase GO, Omar HA, Omer GL, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Opio JN, Ordak M, Orellana ER, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Orru H, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Ortiz-Prado E, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Oyeyemi IT, Oyeyemi OT, Ozten Y, P A MP, Padubidri JR, Pahlavikhah Varnosfaderani M, Pal PK, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pana A, Panahi P, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pando-Robles V, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Pantazopoulos I, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasupula DK, Patel JR, Patel SK, Pathan AR, Patil A, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira G, Pereira J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pezzani R, Pham HT, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Pollner P, Poluru R, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Poudel L, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prajapati VK, Prakash V, Prasad CP, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Purnobasuki H, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qaisar R, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qian G, Quan NK, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafiei Alavi SN, Rafique I, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahman T, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahnavard N, Rai P, Rajaa S, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramadan H, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rani S, Ranjan S, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rastogi P, Rasul A, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Reyes LF, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riaz MA, Ribeiro AI, Ribeiro DC, Rickard J, Rios-Blancas MJ, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohilla R, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshanzamir S, Rostamian M, Roy B, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S M, S N C, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Sabbatucci M, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sacco S, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeedi M, Safi S, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salahi S, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samara KA, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanadgol N, Sanganyado E, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Sanna F, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar C, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saulam J, Sawyer SM, Saxena S, Saya GK, Sayadi Y, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senapati S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sertsu A, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seyedi SA, Shafaat A, Shafaat O, Shafie M, Shafiee A, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shakil H, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Shariff M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shaw DH, Shayan AM, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shenoy MM, Shetty BSK, Shetty RS, Shey RA, Shiani A, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simões JP, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh M, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Sohrabi H, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Solmi M, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Starnes JR, Starodubov VI, Starodubova AV, Stefan SC, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Susanty S, Swain CK, Sykes BL, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabish M, Taborda-Barata LM, Tabuchi T, Tadesse BT, Taheri A, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tang HK, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tebeje TM, Tefera YM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye SH, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tohidast SA, Tonelli M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tram KH, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tromans SJ, Truong VT, Truyen TTTT, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ulhaq I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Umesh A, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Vacante M, Vahdani AM, Vaithinathan AG, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Varma SA, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Veerman LJ, Venketasubramanian N, Venugopal D, Verghese NA, Verma M, Verma P, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Vieira RJ, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Visontay R, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Volovici V, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wado YD, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Wool EE, Woolf AD, Wu D, Wulandari RD, Xiao H, Xu B, Xu X, Yadav L, Yaghoubi S, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Ye P, Yesera GE, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zahedi M, Zahid MN, Zahir M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman BA, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu Z, Ziaeefar P, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024:S0140-6736(24)00476-8. [PMID: 38484753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
7
|
Moberg ME, Hamilton EB, Zeng SM, Bryazka D, Zhao JT, Feldman R, Abate YH, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdurehman AM, Abedi A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmed D, Ahmed H, Alem DT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alimohamadi Y, Ameyaw EK, Amrollahi-Sharifabadi M, Anagaw TF, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Athari SS, Atreya A, Azari Jafari A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Bansal H, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bayileyegn NS, Berhie AY, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Boloor A, Cámera LA, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Chandrasekar EK, Chang JC, Chattu VK, Chu DT, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Das S, Das S, Debela SA, Demessa BH, Deng X, Desta AA, Desye B, Dhimal M, Dibas M, Dsouza HL, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El-Huneidi W, Enyew DB, Fagbamigbe AF, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima SAF, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Garg T, Gebi TG, Gerema U, Getachew M, Getachew ME, Ghamari F, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heyi DZ, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hossain MS, Hosseini MS, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Immurana M, Iwu CCD, Jayarajah U, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kadashetti V, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Katoto PDMC, Khajuria H, Khan EA, Khateri S, Khodamoradi F, Khormali M, Khubchandani J, Kim G, Kisa A, Koohestani HR, Krishan K, Kumar N, Laflamme L, Landires I, Larijani B, Lauriola P, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lunevicius R, Maharaj SB, Menezes RG, Mentis AFA, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirmoeeni S, Misganaw A, Mishra M, Misra S, Mittal C, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Mulualem JA, Mulugeta T, Murray CJL, Myers I, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen VT, Nouraei H, Nzoputam OJ, Okati-Aliabad H, Olufadewa II, Ordak M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pant S, Parekh U, Pawar S, Peden AE, Petcu IR, Piel FB, Piracha ZZ, Pourali G, Qattea I, Qureshi MF, Raghav PR, Rahman M, Rahmani S, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Saddik B, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian F, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif Z, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salamati P, Samy AM, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Schwebel DC, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shashamo BB, Sheikhi RA, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Sibhat MM, Singh H, Singh P, Sisay EA, Solomon Y, Taheri M, Ullah I, Ullah S, Violante FS, Vu LG, Wickramasinghe ND, Yigit A, Yonemoto N, Yousefi Z, Zaman M, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang ZJ, Zheng P, Zoladl M, Steinmetz JD, Vos T, Naghavi M, Ong KL. Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Public Health 2023; 8:e839-e849. [PMID: 37813118 PMCID: PMC10602911 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00185-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Revised: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. METHODS As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. FINDINGS In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively. INTERPRETATION Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
8
|
Wu D, Jin Y, Xing Y, Abate MD, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abd-Allah F, Abdelmasseh M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdulah DM, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abuabara K, Abyadeh M, Addo IY, Adeniji KN, Adepoju AV, Adesina MA, Sakilah Adnani QE, Afarideh M, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Aguilera Arriagada CE, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Aithala JP, Ajadi AA, Ajami M, Akbarzadeh-Khiavi M, Alahdab F, AlBataineh MT, Alemi S, Saeed Al-Gheethi AA, Ali L, Alif SM, Almazan JU, Almustanyir S, Alqahtani JS, Alqasmi I, Khan Altaf IU, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Amani R, Amu H, Amusa GA, Andrei CL, Ansar A, Ansariniya H, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arefnezhad R, Arulappan J, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf T, Atata JA, Athari SS, Atlaw D, Wahbi Atout MM, Aujayeb A, Awan AT, Ayatollahi H, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Baig AA, Bantie BB, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Barone-Adesi F, Batra K, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Belgaumi UI, Bemanalizadeh M, Bensenor IM, Beyene KA, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Boloor A, Bora K, Botelho JS, Buchbinder R, Calina D, Cámera LA, Carvalho AF, Kai Chan JS, Chattu VK, Abebe EC, Chichagi F, Choi S, Chou TC, Chu DT, Coberly K, Costa VM, Couto RA, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Damiani G, Dascalu AM, Dashti M, Debela SA, Dellavalle RP, Demetriades AK, Demlash AA, Deng X, Desai HD, Desai R, Rahman Dewan SM, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz D, Dibas M, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Diress M, Do TC, Doan DK, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dongarwar D, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, Ed-Dra A, Edinur HA, Eissazade N, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elemam NM, Elhadi M, Elmehrath AO, Abdou Elmeligy OA, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Esayas HL, Eshetu HB, Etaee F, Fagbamigbe AF, Faghani S, Fakhradiyev IR, Fatehizadeh A, Fathi M, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Fereidouni M, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrara P, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan B, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Ganesan B, Belete Gemeda BN, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi M, Gholamalizadeh M, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Goudarzi H, Guan SY, Guo Y, Gupta B, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Halwani R, Haque S, Hasan I, Hashempour R, Hassan A, Hassan TS, Hassanzadeh S, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Herteliu C, Hessami K, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Hosseini MS, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Iranmehr A, Iravanpour F, Ismail NE, Iwagami M, Iwu CC, Jacob L, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jahankhani K, Jahrami H, Jakovljevic M, Jamshidi E, Jani CT, Janodia MD, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jonas JB, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Vaishali K, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kaliyadan F, Kalroozi F, Kamal VK, Kandel A, Kandel H, Kanungo S, Karami J, Karaye IM, Karimi H, Kasraei H, Kazemian S, Kebede SA, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khamesipour F, Khan EA, Khan IA, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MA, Khan MA, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khateri S, Khayat Kashani HR, Kim MS, Kisa A, Kisa S, Koh HY, Kolkhir P, Korzh O, Kotnis AL, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuddus M, Kulkarni VV, Kumar N, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, La Vecchia C, Lahariya C, Laksono T, Lám J, Latief K, Lauriola P, Lawal BK, Thu Le TT, Bich Le TT, Lee M, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lenzi J, Levi M, Li W, Ligade VS, Lim SS, Liu G, Liu X, Llanaj E, Lo CH, Machado VS, Maghazachi AA, Mahmoud MA, Mai TA, Majeed A, Sanaye PM, Makram OM, Rad EM, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Martorell M, Masoudi S, Masoumi SZ, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathews E, Mathioudakis AG, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Carabeo Medina JR, Meles GG, Mendes JJ, Menezes RG, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Mihretie ET, Nhat Minh LH, Mirfakhraie R, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi F, Mohammadi S, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mohseni A, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moniruzzaman M, Moradi Y, Morovatdar N, Mostafavi E, Mousavi P, Mukoro GD, Mulita A, Mulu GB, Murillo-Zamora E, Musaigwa F, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Nainu F, Nangia V, Swamy SN, Natto ZS, Navaraj P, Nayak BP, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negash H, Nematollahi MH, Nguyen DH, Hien Nguyen HT, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Nnyanzi LA, Noreen M, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olatubi MI, Olufadewa II, Ordak M, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, Mahesh P, Padubidri JR, Pak A, Pakzad R, Palladino R, Pana A, Pantazopoulos I, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Patel J, Pathan AR, Patil S, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pereira DM, Pereira J, Pereira MO, Pereira RB, Peres MF, Perianayagam A, Perna S, Petcu IR, Pezeshki PS, Pham HT, Philip AK, Piradov MA, Podder I, Podder V, Poddighe D, Sady Prates EJ, Qattea I, Radfar A, Raee P, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahimi M, Rahimifard M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MO, Ur Rahman MH, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani M, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Ramasubramani P, Rancic N, Rao IR, Rashedi S, Rashid AM, Ravikumar N, Rawaf S, Mohamed Redwan EM, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Ribeiro D, Rodrigues M, Buendia Rodriguez JA, Roever L, Romero-Rodríguez E, Saad AM, Saddik B, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Safary A, Safdarian M, Safi SZ, Saghazadeh A, Sagoe D, Sharif-Askari FS, Sharif-Askari NS, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Sahraian MA, Sajid MR, Sakhamuri S, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Salehi L, Salehi S, Farrokhi AS, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samieefar N, Samy AM, Sanadgol N, Sanjeev RK, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Schuermans A, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Shafie M, Shah H, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Sharfaei S, Sharma M, Shayan M, Shehata HS, Sheikh A, Shetty JK, Shin JI, Shirkoohi R, Shitaye NA, Shivakumar K, Shivarov V, Shobeiri P, Siabani S, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Simpson CR, Sinaei E, Singh H, Singh I, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Al Mamun Sohag A, Solanki R, Solikhah S, Solomon Y, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Sun J, Szeto MD, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabish M, Taheri E, Tahvildari A, Talaat IM, Lukenze Tamuzi JJ, Tan KK, Tat NY, Oliaee RT, Tavasol A, Temsah MH, Thangaraju P, Tharwat S, Tibebu NS, Vera Ticoalu JH, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Tiyuri A, Tovani-Palone MR, Tripathi M, Tsegay GM, Tualeka AR, Ty SS, Ubah CS, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Upadhyay E, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Tahbaz SV, Valizadeh R, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Verras GI, Villafañe JH, Vlassov V, Vo DC, Waheed Y, Waris A, Welegebrial BG, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willekens B, Woldegeorgis BZ, Woldemariam M, Xiao H, Yada DY, Yahya G, Yang L, Yazdanpanah F, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Zahir M, Zaidi SS, Zangiabadian M, Zare I, Zeineddine MA, Zemedikun DT, Zeru NG, Zhang C, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zielińska M, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Guo C, Tam LS. Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019. EClinicalMedicine 2023; 64:102193. [PMID: 37731935 PMCID: PMC10507198 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102193] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Revised: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. Funding The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).
Collapse
|
9
|
Struminskaya B, Sakshaug JW. Ethical Considerations for Augmenting Surveys with Auxiliary Data Sources. Public Opin Q 2023; 87:619-633. [PMID: 37705919 PMCID: PMC10496569 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
Survey researchers frequently use supplementary data sources, such as paradata, administrative data, and contextual data to augment surveys and enhance substantive and methodological research capabilities. While these data sources can be beneficial, integrating them with surveys can give rise to ethical and data privacy issues that have not been completely resolved. In this research synthesis, we review ethical considerations and empirical evidence on how privacy concerns impact participation in studies that collect these novel data sources to supplement surveys. We further discuss potential approaches for safeguarding participants' data privacy during data collection and dissemination that may assuage their concerns. Finally, we conclude with open questions and suggested avenues for future research.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bella Struminskaya
- Associate Professor, Department of Methodology and Statistics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Joseph W Sakshaug
- Distinguished Researcher, Department of Statistical Methods, Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany; and Professor, Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Rios-Blancas MJ, Pando-Robles V, Razo C, Carcamo CP, Mendoza W, Pacheco-Barrios K, Miranda JJ, Lansingh VC, Demie TG, Saha M, Okonji OC, Yigit A, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Chacón-Uscamaita PR, Bernabe E, Culquichicon C, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Cárdenas R, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Barrera FJ, Quintanilla BPA, Shorofi SA, Wickramasinghe ND, Ferreira N, Almidani L, Gupta VK, Karimi H, Alayu DS, Benziger CP, Fukumoto T, Mostafavi E, Redwan EMM, Gebrehiwot M, Khatab K, Koyanagi A, Krapp F, Lee S, Noori M, Qattea I, Rosenthal VD, Sakshaug JW, Wagaye B, Zare I, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Murillo-Zamora E, Vervoort D, Silva DAS, Oulhaj A, Herrera-Serna BY, Mehra R, Amir-Behghadami M, Adib N, Cortés S, Dang AK, Nguyen BT, Mokdad AH, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Lozano R, García PJ. Estimating mortality and disability in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of the Disease Study 2019. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1189861. [PMID: 37427272 PMCID: PMC10325574 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1189861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 07/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Estimating and analyzing trends and patterns of health loss are essential to promote efficient resource allocation and improve Peru's healthcare system performance. Methods Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2019), we assessed mortality and disability in Peru from 1990 to 2019. We report demographic and epidemiologic trends in terms of population, life expectancy at birth (LE), mortality, incidence, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the major diseases and risk factors in Peru. Finally, we compared Peru with 16 countries in the Latin American (LA) region. Results The Peruvian population reached 33.9 million inhabitants (49.9% women) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, LE at birth increased from 69.2 (95% uncertainty interval 67.8-70.3) to 80.3 (77.2-83.2) years. This increase was driven by the decline in under-5 mortality (-80.7%) and mortality from infectious diseases in older age groups (+60 years old). The number of DALYs in 1990 was 9.2 million (8.5-10.1) and reached 7.5 million (6.1-9.0) in 2019. The proportion of DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increased from 38.2% in 1990 to 67.9% in 2019. The all-ages and age-standardized DALYs rates and YLLs rates decreased, but YLDs rates remained constant. In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and low back pain. The leading risk factors associated with DALYs in 2019 were undernutrition, high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and air pollution. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Peru experienced one of the highest LRIs-DALYs rates in the LA region. Conclusion In the last three decades, Peru experienced significant improvements in LE and child survival and an increase in the burden of NCDs and associated disability. The Peruvian healthcare system must be redesigned to respond to this epidemiological transition. The new design should aim to reduce premature deaths and maintain healthy longevity, focusing on effective coverage and treatment of NCDs and reducing and managing the related disability.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas
- School of Public Health of Mexico, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Victoria Pando-Robles
- Infectious Disease Research Center, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Christian Razo
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Cesar P. Carcamo
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Walter Mendoza
- Peru Country Office, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Lima, Peru
| | - Kevin Pacheco-Barrios
- Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
- Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola (University of Saint Ignatius of Loyola), Lima, Peru
| | - J. Jaime Miranda
- CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Cayetano Heredia Peruvian University), Lima, Peru
- Department of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia (Cayetano Heredia Peruvian University), Lima, Peru
| | - Van Charles Lansingh
- HelpMeSee, New York, NY, United States
- Mexican Institute of Ophthalmology, Queretaro, Mexico
| | - Takele Gezahegn Demie
- School of Public Health, St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Manika Saha
- Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Department of Human-Centred Computing, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Arzu Yigit
- Department of Health Management, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi (Süleyman Demirel University), Isparta, Türkiye
| | - Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Pamela R. Chacón-Uscamaita
- Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Eduardo Bernabe
- Faculty of Dentistry, Oral and Craniofacial Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Carlos Culquichicon
- Universidad Privada Norbert Wiener, Centro de Investigación Epidemiológica en Salud Global, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Rosario Cárdenas
- Department of Health Care, Metropolitan Autonomous University, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | | | - Seyed Afshin Shorofi
- Medical-Surgical Nursing, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
- College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | | | - Nuno Ferreira
- Department of Social Sciences, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Louay Almidani
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Doheny Image Reading and Research Lab (DIRRL) - Doheny Eye Institute, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
| | - Vivek Kumar Gupta
- Faculty of Medicine Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Hanie Karimi
- School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Daniel Shewaye Alayu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | | | | | - Ebrahim Mostafavi
- Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, United States
- Stanford Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, United States
| | - Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan
- Department Biological Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Egypt
- Department of Protein Research, Research and Academic Institution, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Mesfin Gebrehiwot
- Department of Environmental Health, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
| | - Khaled Khatab
- Health and Wellbeing, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom
| | - Ai Koyanagi
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CIBERSAM), Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Fiorella Krapp
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt (Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Tropical Medicine), Cayetano Heredia University, Lima, Peru
- Doctoral School of Biomedical Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Seung Lee
- Department of Precision Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon-si, Republic of Korea
| | - Maryam Noori
- Student Research Committee, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ibrahim Qattea
- Department of Neonatology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, United States
| | - Victor Daniel Rosenthal
- International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium, Independent Consultant, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Department of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany
| | - Birhanu Wagaye
- Department of Public Health Nutrition, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
- Infection Prevention and Control and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Unit, Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Iman Zare
- Research and Development Department, Sina Medical Biochemistry Technologies Co. Ltd., Shiraz, Iran
| | | | - Efrén Murillo-Zamora
- Clinical Epidemiology Research Unit, Mexican Institute of Social Security, Villa de Alvarez, Mexico
- Postgraduate in Medical Sciences, Universidad de Colima, Colima, Mexico
| | - Dominique Vervoort
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | | | - Abderrahim Oulhaj
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna
- Departamento de Salud Oral (Department of Oral Health), Universidad Autónoma de Manizales (Autonomous University of Manizales), Manizales, Colombia
| | - Rahul Mehra
- Food Science and Technology, Maharishi Markandeshwar (Deemed to be University), Ambala, Haryana, India
| | - Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami
- Road Traffic Injury Research Center, Iranian International Safe Community Support Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
- Department of Health Service Management, Iranian Center of Excellence in Health Management, Tabriz, Iran
| | - Nasrin Adib
- Department of Veterinary Pathobiology, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
| | - Sandra Cortés
- Department of Public Health, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
- Research Line in Environmental Exposures and Health Effects at Population Level, Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable (CEDEUS), Advanced Center for Chronic Diseases (ACCDIS), Santiago, Chile
| | - Anh Kim Dang
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Binh Thanh Nguyen
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Ali H. Mokdad
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Christopher J. L. Murray
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Rafael Lozano
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Patricia J. García
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Sakshaug JW, Struminskaya B. Augmenting Surveys with Paradata, Administrative Data, and Contextual Data. Public Opin Q 2023; 87:475-479. [PMID: 37705924 PMCID: PMC10496571 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfad026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W Sakshaug
- Distinguished Researcher, Department of Statistical Methods, Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany; and Professor, Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Bella Struminskaya
- Associate Professor, Department of Methodology and Statistics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Smith D, Elliot M, Sakshaug JW. To Link or Synthesize? An Approach to Data Quality Comparison. J Data and Information Quality 2023. [DOI: 10.1145/3580487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/23/2023]
Abstract
Linking administrative data to produce more informative data for subsequent analysis has become an increasingly common practice. However, there might be concomitant risks of disclosing sensitive information about individuals. One practice that reduces these risks is data synthesis. In data synthesis the data are used to fit a model from which synthetic data are then generated. The synthetic data are then released to end users. There are some scenarios where an end user might have the option of using linked data, or accepting synthesized data. However, linkage and synthesis are susceptible to errors that could limit their usefulness. Here, we investigate the problem of comparing the quality of linked data to synthesized data and demonstrate through simulations how the problem might be approached. These comparisons are important when considering how an end user can be supplied with the highest quality data, and in situations where one must consider risk / utility trade-offs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Mark Elliot
- The University of Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research & Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Sakshaug JW. Reducing Nonresponse and Data Linkage Consent Bias in Large-Scale Panel Surveys. Forum Health Econ Policy 2022; 25:41-55. [PMID: 35728803 DOI: 10.1515/fhep-2021-0060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
Selection bias is an ongoing concern in large-scale panel surveys where the cumulative effects of unit nonresponse increase at each subsequent wave of data collection. A second source of selection bias in panel studies is the inability to link respondents to supplementary administrative records, either because respondents do not consent to link or the matching algorithm fails to locate their administrative records. Both sources of selection bias can affect the validity of conclusions drawn from these data sources. In this article, I discuss recently proposed methods of reducing both sources of selection bias in panel studies, with a special emphasis on reducing selection bias in the US Health and Retirement Study.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W Sakshaug
- University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.,German Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany.,Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Küfner B, Sakshaug JW, Zins S. Establishment survey participation during the COVID-19 pandemic. J Labour Mark Res 2022; 56:18. [PMID: 36408441 PMCID: PMC9660198 DOI: 10.1186/s12651-022-00321-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2022] [Accepted: 08/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Establishment surveys around the globe have measured the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on establishments' conditions and business practices. At the same time, the consequences of the pandemic, such as closures, hygiene standards, or remote work arrangements, may have also altered patterns of survey participation and introduced nonresponse bias, threatening the quality of establishment survey data. To investigate these issues, this article examines fieldwork outcomes, nonresponse bias, and predictors of survey participation in the IAB-Job Vacancy Survey. As comparisons with previous survey years show, it became more difficult to successfully interview establishments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using linked administrative data, we show that nonresponse bias was higher in 2020 compared to previous years, even after applying the standard weighting adjustment. However, general patterns of survey participation in 2020 were similar to previous years and COVID-19 related measures were not strong predictors of survey participation in 2020. Further, we provide evidence that nonresponse bias during the pandemic can be reduced by incorporating additional administrative variables into the weighting procedure relative to the standard weighting variables. We conclude this article with a discussion of the findings and implications for survey practitioners. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12651-022-00321-8.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin Küfner
- Institute for Employment Research, Regensburgerstr. 100, 90478 Nuremberg, Germany
| | - Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research, Regensburgerstr. 100, 90478 Nuremberg, Germany
- University of Warwick, CV4 7AL Coventry, UK
- Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Ludwigstr. 33, 80539 Munich, Germany
| | - Stefan Zins
- Institute for Employment Research, Regensburgerstr. 100, 90478 Nuremberg, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Olbrich L, Kosyakova Y, Sakshaug JW. The reliability of adult self-reported height: The role of interviewers. Econ Hum Biol 2022; 45:101118. [PMID: 35286989 DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/22/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Surveys serve as an important source of information on key anthropometric characteristics such as body height or weight in the population. Such data are often obtained by directly asking respondents to report those values. Numerous studies have examined measurement errors in this context by comparing reported to measured values. However, little is known on the role of interviewers on the prevalence of irregularities in anthropometric survey data. In this study, we explore such interviewer effects in two ways. First, we use data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to evaluate whether differences between reported and measured values are clustered within interviewers. Second, we investigate changes in adult self-reported height over survey waves in two German large-scale panel surveys. Here, we exploit that height should be constant over time for the majority of adult age groups. In both analyses, we use multilevel location-scale models to identify interviewers who enhance reporting errors and interviewers for whom unlikely height changes over waves occur frequently. Our results reveal that interviewers can play a prominent role in differences between reported and measured height values and changes in reported height over survey waves. We further provide an analysis of the consequences of height misreporting on substantive regression coefficients where we especially focus on the role of interviewers who reinforce reporting errors and unlikely height changes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lukas Olbrich
- Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany; Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
| | - Yuliya Kosyakova
- Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany; Otto-Friedrich University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Germany
| | - Joseph W Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany; Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany; University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Schwanhäuser S, Sakshaug JW, Kosyakova Y. How to Catch a Falsifier: Comparison of Statistical Detection Methods for Interviewer Falsification. Public Opin Q 2022; 86:51-81. [PMID: 35350636 PMCID: PMC8944307 DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfab066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Deviant interviewer behavior is a potential hazard of interviewer-administered surveys, with interviewers fabricating entire interviews as the most severe form. Various statistical methods (e.g., cluster analysis) have been proposed to detect falsifiers. These methods often rely on falsification indicators aiming to measure differences between real and falsified data. However, due to a lack of real-world data, empirical evaluations and comparisons of different statistical methods and falsification indicators are scarce. Using a large-scale nationally representative refugee survey in Germany with known fraudulent interviews, this study tests, evaluates, and compares statistical methods for identifying falsified data. We investigate the use of new and existing falsification indicators as well as multivariate detection methods for combining them. Additionally, we introduce a new and easy-to-use multivariate detection method that overcomes practical limitations of previous methods. We find that the vast majority of used falsification indicators successfully measure differences between falsifiers and nonfalsifiers, with the newly proposed falsification indicators outperforming some existing indicators. Furthermore, different multivariate detection methods perform similarly well in detecting the falsifiers.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Silvia Schwanhäuser
- PhD candidate with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany; and the University of Mannheim, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
| | - Joseph W Sakshaug
- professor of statistics with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany; the University of Mannheim, Baden-Württemberg, Germany; and Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Yuliya Kosyakova
- postdoctoral senior researcher and associate lecturer with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany; the University of Mannheim, Baden-Württemberg, Germany; and Otto-Friedrich University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Johnson RM, Crifasi C, Anderson Goodell EM, Wiśniowski A, Sakshaug JW, Thrul J, Owens M. Differences in beliefs about COVID-19 by gun ownership: a cross-sectional survey of Texas adults. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e048094. [PMID: 34824107 PMCID: PMC8627366 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-048094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We investigated the association between gun ownership and perceptions about COVID-19 among Texas adults as the pandemic emerged. We considered perceived likelihood that the pandemic would lead to civil unrest, perceived importance of taking precautions to prevent transmission and perceptions that the threat of COVID-19 has been exaggerated. METHODS Data were collected from 5 to 12 April 2020, shortly after Texas' stay-at-home declaration. We generated a sample using random digit dial methods for a telephone survey (n=77, response rate=8%) and by randomly selecting adults from an ongoing panel to complete the survey online (n=1120, non-probability sample). We conducted a logistic regression to estimate differences in perceptions by gun ownership. To account for bias associated with use of a non-probability sample, we used Bayesian data integration and ran linear regression models to produce more accurate measures of association. RESULTS Among the 60% of Texas adults who reported gun ownership, estimates of past 7-day gun purchases, ammunition purchases and gun carrying were 15% (n=78), 20% (n=100) and 24% (n=130), respectively. We found no evidence of an association between gun ownership with perceived importance of taking precautions to prevent transmission or with perceived likelihood of civil unrest. Results from the logistic regression (OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.63) and the linear regression (β=0.18, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.29) suggest that gun owners may be more likely to believe the threat of COVID-19 was exaggerated. CONCLUSIONS Compared with those without guns, gun owners may have been inclined to downplay the threat of COVID-19 early in the pandemic.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Renee M Johnson
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Cassandra Crifasi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Center for Gun Violence Prevention and Policy, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Erin M Anderson Goodell
- Mental Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Joseph W Sakshaug
- Department of Statistical Methods, Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany
- Statistical Methods Research, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Munchen, Germany
| | - Johannes Thrul
- Mental Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Mark Owens
- Department of Political Science, University of Texas at Tyler, Tyler, Texas, USA
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Affiliation(s)
- Angelo Moretti
- Social Statistics Department, School of Social SciencesUniversity of Manchester Manchester UK
| | - Natalie Shlomo
- Social Statistics Department, School of Social SciencesUniversity of Manchester Manchester UK
| | - Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research Nuremberg Germany
- Faculty of Social SciencesUniversity of Mannheim Mannheim Germany
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Abstract
Background Biosocial survey data are in high demand, yet little is known about the measurement quality of health measures collected by nurses in respondents’ homes. Our objective was to analyze the degree to which nurses influence measurement in anthropometric and physical performance indicators collected from respondents in two nationally-representative UK biosocial surveys. Methods The English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing and the UK Household Longitudinal Study – Understanding Society were used to analyze fourteen anthropometric and physical performance measures covering weight, height, pulse, grip strength, and lung capacity. Cross-classified multilevel models were used to estimate “nurse effects” on measurement error. Results Overall, there is a medium effect of nurses on measurement. Across all measures collected in both studies, nurses explain around 13% of all measurement variation. Variation in specific measures range between approximately 2 and 25%. Grip strength and lung capacity are more heavily influenced by nurses than are height, weight, and pulse. Lastly, nurse characteristics explain only a very small proportion of nurse measurement variation. Conclusion Objective health measures collected by nurses in household biosocial surveys are susceptible to non-trivial amounts of measurement variation. Nurse ID numbers should be regularly included in biosocial data releases to allow researchers to account for this unnecessary source of variation. Further, researchers are advised to conduct sensitivity analyses using control variables that account for nurse variation to confirm whether their substantive findings are influenced by nurse measurement effects.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alexandru Cernat
- University of Manchester, Humanities Bridgford Street, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.
| | - Joseph W Sakshaug
- Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany.,University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.,Institute for Employment Research, Regensburger Strasse 104, 90478, Nuremberg, Germany
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Sakshaug JW, Stegmaier J, Trappmann M, Kreuter F. Does Benefit Framing Improve Record Linkage Consent Rates? A Survey Experiment. Surv Res Methods 2019; 13:289-304. [PMID: 32849920 PMCID: PMC7447194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Survey researchers are increasingly seeking opportunities to link interview data with administrative records. However, obtaining consent from all survey respondents (or certain subgroups) remains a barrier to performing record linkage in many studies. We experimentally investigated whether emphasizing different benefits of record linkage to respondents in a telephone survey of employee working conditions improves respondents' willingness to consent to linkage of employment administrative records relative to a neutral consent request. We found that emphasizing linkage benefits related to "time savings" yielded a small, albeit statistically significant, improvement in the overall linkage consent rate (86.0) relative to the neutral consent request (83.8 percent). The time savings argument was particularly effective among "busy" respondents. A second benefit argument related to "improved study value" did not yield a statistically significant improvement in the linkage consent rate (84.4 percent) relative to the neutral request. This benefit argument was also ineffective among the subgroup of respondents considered to be most likely to have a self-interest in the study outcomes. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the practical implications of these findings and offers suggestions for possible research extensions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, and University of Mannheim
| | | | - Mark Trappmann
- Institute for Employment Research (IAB), and University of Bamberg
| | - Frauke Kreuter
- Institute for Employment Research (IAB), University of Mannheim, and University of Maryland
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Abstract
Numerous surveys link interview data to administrative records, conditional on respondent consent, in order to explore new and innovative research questions. Optimizing the linkage consent rate is a critical step toward realizing the scientific advantages of record linkage and minimizing the risk of linkage consent bias. Linkage consent rates have been shown to be particularly sensitive to certain design features, such as where the consent question is placed in the questionnaire and how the question is framed. However, the interaction of these design features and their relative contributions to the linkage consent rate have never been jointly studied, raising the practical question of which design feature (or combination of features) should be prioritized from a consent rate perspective. We address this knowledge gap by reporting the results of a placement and framing experiment embedded within separate telephone and Web surveys. We find a significant interaction between placement and framing of the linkage consent question on the consent rate. The effect of placement was larger than the effect of framing in both surveys, and the effect of framing was only evident in the Web survey when the consent question was placed at the end of the questionnaire. Both design features had negligible impact on linkage consent bias for a series of administrative variables available for consenters and non-consenters. We conclude this research note with guidance on the optimal administration of the linkage consent question.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W Sakshaug
- Address correspondence to Joseph W. Sakshaug, Statistical Methods Research Department, Institute for Employment Research, 104 Regensburger Strasse, Nuremberg 90478, Germany;
| | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
22
|
Affiliation(s)
- Angelo Moretti
- Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Social Statistics Department, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Natalie Shlomo
- Social Statistics Department, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | | |
Collapse
|
23
|
Abstract
Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Brady T. West
- Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Cathie Marsh Institute for Social Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, England
- Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany
| | - Guy Alain S. Aurelien
- Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland-College Park, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Chen LM, Sakshaug JW, Miller DC, Rosland AM, Hollingsworth J. The association among medical home readiness, quality, and care of vulnerable patients. Am J Manag Care 2015; 21:e480-e486. [PMID: 26625502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Despite broad support for the patient-centered medical home (PCMH), the implications of PCMH implementation efforts that require that participants have some degree of PCMH readiness at baseline are unclear. Therefore, we sought to examine the association among PCMH readiness, quality, and the care of vulnerable patients. STUDY DESIGN We conducted a cross-sectional study of adult visits to a nationally representative sample of US office-based primary care physicians in 2007 and 2008. METHODS Using National Committee for Quality Assurance criteria, we determined whether or not a visit occurred at a PCMH-ready practice. We used t tests and multiple linear regression to measure the association between PCMH readiness and performance on 9 validated outpatient quality indicators. RESULTS Among 12,235 visits to general practitioners and 5123 visits to general internists, 73% occurred at practices that were PCMH-ready. Visits by patients with 3 or more chronic medical conditions were more likely to occur at ready practices (P = .001). Visits by patients that were poor or minority were equally likely to occur at ready and unready practices. Performance at ready practices was higher for 3 of 9 quality indicators related to chronic disease management and preventive counseling (P = .031 [beta-blocker or diuretic prescribed for hypertension]; P = .018 [diet counseling]; and P <.001 [exercise counseling]). CONCLUSIONS Implementation efforts that encourage the enrollment of practices most ready for the PCMH could improve the quality of care for complex patients without exacerbating socioeconomic disparities in access to care.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lena M Chen
- Division of General Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
| | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
25
|
Sakshaug JW, Raghunathan TE. Generating synthetic data to produce public-use microdata for small geographic areas based on complex sample survey data with application to the National Health Interview Survey. J Appl Stat 2014. [DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2014.909778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Department of Statistical Methods, Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany
| | | |
Collapse
|
26
|
Sakshaug JW, Hollenbeck BK, Wei JT, Hollingsworth JM. Availability of In-Office Laboratory Services and Use of Prostate Specific Antigen Testing. Urology Practice 2014. [PMID: 37537801 DOI: 10.1016/j.urpr.2014.04.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION There are concerns that the availability of in-office ancillary services may lower thresholds for evaluation, leading to the overuse of testing without clear benefit. Motivated by this issue, we analyzed nationally representative survey data, and examined for associations between the availability of in-office laboratory services and the use of prostate specific antigen testing. METHODS Using restricted data from the 2006-2008 NAMCS, we determined the prevalence of physician practices offering on-site laboratory services. We then characterized differences between practices with and without these capabilities as well as among the physicians working in them. Finally, we fitted multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the odds of prostate specific antigen testing given a man's mortality risk and the availability of in-office laboratory services at the practice where he received care. RESULTS Approximately half of all primary care and urology practices offered in-office laboratory services. Practice characteristics associated with these capabilities included practice size (p <0.001) and breadth of specialization (p = 0.021). Employed physicians were more likely to work in practices with in-office laboratory services than self-employed physicians (p <0.001). On multivariable regression the availability of on-site laboratory services was not associated with the use of prostate specific antigen testing (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.62-1.20, p = 0.362). In fact, the probability of prostate specific antigen testing among patients with the highest mortality risk was lower if they were seen at a practice with in-office laboratory services. CONCLUSIONS These findings provide some reassurance that in-office ancillaries do not lead to overuse of prostate specific antigen testing.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Department of Statistical Methods, Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany
- Program in Survey Methodology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | | | - John T. Wei
- Department of Urology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | | |
Collapse
|
27
|
Sakshaug JW, Weir DR, Nicholas LH. Identifying diabetics in Medicare claims and survey data: implications for health services research. BMC Health Serv Res 2014; 14:150. [PMID: 24693862 PMCID: PMC3975984 DOI: 10.1186/1472-6963-14-150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2013] [Accepted: 03/31/2014] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Diabetes health services research often utilizes secondary data sources, including survey self-report and Medicare claims, to identify and study the diabetic population, but disagreement exists between these two data sources. We assessed agreement between the Chronic Condition Warehouse diabetes algorithm for Medicare claims and self-report measures of diabetes. Differences in healthcare utilization outcomes under each diabetes definition were also explored. Methods Claims data from the Medicare Beneficiary Annual Summary File were linked to survey and blood data collected from the 2006 Health and Retirement Study. A Hemoglobin A1c reading, collected on 2,028 respondents, was used to reconcile discrepancies between the self-report and Medicare claims measures of diabetes. T-tests were used to assess differences in healthcare utilization outcomes for each diabetes measure. Results The Chronic Condition Warehouse (CCW) algorithm yielded a higher rate of diabetes than respondent self-reports (27.3 vs. 21.2, p < 0.05). A1c levels of discordant claims-based diabetics suggest that these patients are not diabetic, however, they have high rates of healthcare spending and utilization similar to diabetics. Conclusions Concordance between A1c and self-reports was higher than for A1c and the CCW algorithm. Accuracy of self-reports was superior to the CCW algorithm. False positives in the claims data have similar utilization profiles to diabetics, suggesting minimal bias in some types of claims-based analyses, though researchers should consider sensitivity analysis across definitions for health services research.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W Sakshaug
- Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, MI, 48104, USA.
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
28
|
Abstract
Researchers often use survey data to answer important public health policy questions. Examples of common data sources used in public health research include the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the National Health Interview Survey, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. All these surveys employ a complex sample design to recruit participants into the survey. When performing secondary analyses of complex sample survey data, it is necessary to remind ourselves of the key features of these designs that must be taken into account to produce valid statistical estimates.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W Sakshaug
- Joseph W. Sakshaug is with the Department of Statistical Methods, German Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, and the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany. Brady T. West is with the Survey Research Center and the Center for Statistical Consultation and Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
| | | |
Collapse
|
29
|
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stark law's in-office ancillary services exception permits physicians to furnish designated health services in the office, including advanced imaging. OBJECTIVES To determine whether arrangements tailored to fit this loophole spur utilization. RESEARCH DESIGN Cross-sectional. SUBJECTS Procedure-based specialty clinics participating in the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. MEASURES Using restricted data files (2006-2008), we identified specialty practices with on-site advanced imaging capabilities (ie, computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and/or positron emission tomography). We then characterized these practices and the physicians who worked in them over a variety of factors. Finally, we performed multivariable regression to evaluate the association between imaging use and the availability of in-office imaging. RESULTS Fourteen percent of practices performed advanced imaging on site. While this proportion remained stable over the study period for most specialties, it rose significantly among orthopedic surgery clinics from 13.6% to 31.3% (P = .023 for the temporal trend). The availability of advanced imaging varied by practice organization and size. For instance, 32.6% of large single-specialty groups provided in-office imaging as compared to only 10.1% of solo/partnership practices. While less than a quarter of specialty visits were made to practices that offered advanced imaging, these locations generated a third of all advanced imaging studies. In fact, 1 in 11 visits (9.0%; 95% confidence interval = 6.8% to 11.6%; P = .030) to them resulted in advanced imaging. CONCLUSIONS The availability of in-office advanced imaging is associated with increased imaging use.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Yun Zhang
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
30
|
Abstract
PURPOSE Hopes are high that the delivery system reforms embodied in the patient centered medical home will improve the quality of care for patients with chronic diseases. While primary care physicians, given their training, will likely be the locus of care under this model, there are certain conditions for which urologists are well suited to provide the continuous and comprehensive care called for by the patient centered medical home. To assess the feasibility of the urology based patient centered medical home, we analyzed national survey data. MATERIALS AND METHODS For our measure of medical home infrastructure, we mapped items from the 2007 and 2008 NAMCS (National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey) to the NCQA (National Committee on Quality Assurance) standards for patient centered medical home recognition. We determined the proportion of urology practices in the United States that would achieve patient centered medical home recognition. Finally, we used NAMCS data to estimate the impact of consolidating genitourinary cancer (ie prostate, bladder, kidney and testis) followup care among the current supply of urologists. RESULTS Nearly three-quarters of urology practices meet NCQA standards for patient centered medical home recognition. At present, primary care physicians spend 9,295 cumulative workweeks providing direct and indirect care to survivors of genitourinary cancers. Off-loading half of this care to urology practices, in the context of the patient centered medical home, would generate an average of 0.73 additional workweeks for each practicing urologist. CONCLUSIONS Urology practices may possess the capacity needed to direct medical homes for their patients with genitourinary cancers. Successful implementation of this model would likely require a willingness to manage some nonurological conditions.
Collapse
|
31
|
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the prevalence of medical home infrastructure among primary care practices for children and identify practice characteristics associated with medical home infrastructure. METHODS Cross-sectional analysis of restricted data files from 2007 and 2008 of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We mapped survey items to the 2011 National Committee on Quality Assurance's Patient-Centered Medical home standards. Points were awarded for each "passed" element based on National Committee for Quality Assurance scoring, and we then calculated the percentage of the total possible points met for each practice. We used multivariate linear regression to assess associations between practice characteristics and the percentage of medical home infrastructure points attained. RESULTS On average, pediatric practices attained 38% (95% confidence interval 34%-41%) of medical home infrastructure points, and family/general practices attained 36% (95% confidence interval 33%-38%). Practices scored higher on medical home elements related to direct patient care (eg, providing comprehensive health assessments) and lower in areas highly dependent on health information technology (eg, computerized prescriptions, test ordering, laboratory result viewing, or quality of care measurement and reporting). In multivariate analyses, smaller practice size was significantly associated with lower infrastructure scores. Practice ownership, urban versus rural location, and proportion of visits covered by public insurers were not consistently associated with a practice's infrastructure score. CONCLUSIONS Medical home programs need effective approaches to support practice transformation in the small practices that provide the vast majority of the primary care for children in the United States.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph S. Zickafoose
- Child Health Evaluation and Research (CHEAR) Unit, Division of General Pediatrics
| | - Sarah J. Clark
- Child Health Evaluation and Research (CHEAR) Unit, Division of General Pediatrics
| | | | - Lena M. Chen
- Division of General Medicine, and,VA Health Services Research and Development Center of Excellence, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | | |
Collapse
|
32
|
Abstract
Survey records are increasingly being linked to administrative databases to enhance the survey data and increase research opportunities for data users. A necessary prerequisite to linking survey and administrative records is obtaining informed consent from respondents. Obtaining consent from all respondents is a difficult challenge and one that faces significant resistance. Consequently, data linkage consent rates vary widely from study-to-study. Several studies have found significant differences between consenters and non-consenters on socio-demographic variables, but no study has investigated the underlying mechanisms of consent from a theory-driven perspective. In this study, we describe and test several hypotheses related to respondents' willingness to consent to an earnings and benefit data linkage request based on mechanisms related to financial uncertainty, privacy concerns, resistance towards the survey interview, level of attentiveness during the interview, the respondents' preexisting relationship with the administrative data agency, and matching respondents and interviewers on observable characteristics. The results point to several implications for survey practice and suggestions for future research.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph W. Sakshaug
- Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany
- Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich
| | | | | | - David R. Weir
- Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
| |
Collapse
|
33
|
Hollingsworth JM, Saint S, Sakshaug JW, Hayward RA, Zhang L, Miller DC. Physician practices and readiness for medical home reforms: policy, pitfalls, and possibilities. Health Serv Res 2011; 47:486-508. [PMID: 22091559 DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6773.2011.01332.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine the proportion of physician practices in the United States that currently meets medical home criteria. DATA SOURCE/STUDY SETTING 2007 and 2008 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. STUDY DESIGN We mapped survey items to the National Committee on Quality Assurance's (NCQA's) medical home standards. After awarding points for each "passed" element, we calculated a practice's infrastructure score, dividing its cumulative total by the number of available points. We identified practices that would be recognized as a medical home (Level 1 [25-49 percent], Level 2 [50-74 percent], or Level 3 [infrastructure score ≥75 percent]) and examined characteristics associated with NCQA recognition. RESULTS Forty-six percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 42.5-50.2) of all practices lack sufficient medical home infrastructure. While 72.3 percent (95 percent CI, 64.0-80.7 percent) of multi-specialty groups would achieve recognition, only 49.8 percent (95 percent CI, 45.2-54.5 percent) of solo/partnership practices meet NCQA standards. Although better prepared than specialists, 40 percent of primary care practices would not qualify as a medical home under present criteria. CONCLUSION Almost half of all practices fail to meet NCQA standards for medical home recognition.
Collapse
|
34
|
Hollingsworth JM, Sakshaug JW, Miller DC. 81 UROLOGY PRACTICES AND READINESS FOR MEDICAL HOME REFORMS. J Urol 2011. [DOI: 10.1016/j.juro.2011.02.145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
|