Lower respiratory tract infection admissions and deaths among children under 5 years in public sector facilities in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2019 - 2021)

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the implementation of strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) (including mobility restrictions, social distancing, mask-wearing and hand hygiene), limitations on non-essential healthcare services, and public fear of COVID-19 infection, all of which potentially affected transmission and healthcare use for other diseases such as lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs).

OBJECTIVE

To determine changes in LRTI hospital admissions and in-facility mortality in children aged <5 years in the Western Cape Province during the pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of LRTI admissions and in-facility deaths from January 2019 to November 2021. We estimated changes in rates and trends of LRTI admissions during the pandemic compared with pre-pandemic period using interrupted time series analysis, adjusting for key characteristics.

RESULTS

There were 36 277 children admitted for LRTIs during the study period, of whom 58% were male and 51% were aged 28 days - 1 year. COVID-19 restrictions were associated with a 13% step reduction in LRTI admissions compared with the pre-COVID-19 period (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI)) 0.80 - 0.94). The average LRTI admission trend increased on average by 2% per month during the pandemic (IRR 1.02, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 surges and their associated measures were linked to declining LRTI admissions and in-facility deaths, likely driven by a combination of reduced infectious disease transmission and reduced use of healthcare services, with effects diminishing over time. These findings may inform future pandemic response policies.

Radiographic morphology of canines tested for sexual dimorphism via convolutional-neural-network-based artificial intelligence

The permanent left mandibular canines have been used for sexual dimorphism when human identification is necessary. Controversy remains whether the morphology of these teeth is actually useful to distinguish males and females. This study aimed to assess the sexual dimorphism of canines by means of a pioneering artificial intelligence approach to this end. A sample of 13,046 teeth radiographically registered from 5838 males and 7208 females between the ages of 6 and 22.99 years was collected. The images were annotated using Darwin V7 software. DenseNet121 was used and tested based on binary answers regarding the sex (male or female) of the individuals for 17 age categories of one year each (i.e. 6-6.99, 7.7.99… 22.22.99). Accuracy rates, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and confusion matrices were used to quantify and express the artificial intelligence's classification performance. The accuracy rates across age categories were between 57-76% (mean: 68%±5%). The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC analysis was between 0.58 and 0.77. The best performances were observed around the age of 12 years, while the worst were around the age of 7 years. The morphological analysis of canines for sex estimation should be restricted and allowed in practice only when other sources of dimorphic anatomic features are not available.

Applying artificial intelligence to determination of legal age of majority from radiographic data

Forensic odontologists use biological patterns to estimate chronological age for the judicial system. The age of majority is a legally significant period with a limited set of reliable oral landmarks. Currently, experts rely on the questionable development of third molars to assess whether litigants can be prosecuted as legal adults. Identification of new and novel patterns may illuminate features more dependably indicative of chronological age, which have, until now, remained unseen. Unfortunately, biased perceptions and limited cognitive capacity compromise the ability of researchers to notice new patterns. The present study demonstrates how artificial intelligence can break through identification barriers and generate new estimation modalities. A convolutional neural network was trained with 4003 panoramic-radiographs to sort subjects into 'under-18' and 'over-18' age categories. The resultant architecture identified legal adults with a high predictive accuracy equally balanced between precision, specificity and recall. Moving forward, AI-based methods could improve courtroom efficiency, stand as automated assessment methods and contribute to our understanding of biological ageing.

Whole genome sequencing of a family with autosomal dominant features within the oculoauriculovertebral spectrum

Background

Oculoauriculovertebral Spectrum (OAVS) encompasses a wide variety of anomalies on derivatives from the first and second pharyngeal arches including macrostomia, hemifacial microsomia, micrognathia, preauricular tags, ocular and vertebral anomalies. We present the genetic findings of a large three-generation family with multiple members affected with macrostomia, preauricular tags and uni- or bilateral ptosis following an autosomal dominant segregation pattern.

Methods

We generated whole genome sequencing data for the proband, affected parent and unaffected paternal grandparent followed by Sanger sequencing on 23 family members for the top 10 candidate genes: KCND2, PDGFRA, CASP9, NCOA3, WNT10A, SIX1, MTF1, KDR/VEGFR2, LRRK1, and TRIM2. We performed parent and sibling-based transmission disequilibrium tests and burden analysis to explore segregation and burden of candidate gene mutations. Bioinformatic analyses investigated the biological connection between genes and the abnormal phenotypes.

Results

Overall, rare missense mutations in SIX1, KDR/VEGFR2, and PDGFRA showed the best evidence of segregation with the OAV phenotypes in this family. When considering affection with any of the 3 OAVS phenotypes as an outcome, parent-TDTs and sib-TDTs (unadjusted p-values) found that SIX1 (p=0.025, p=0.052), followed by PDGFRA (p=0.180, p=0.069) and KDR/VEGFR2 (p=0.180, p=0.069) have the strongest associations in this family. Burden analysis via a penalized linear mixed model identified SIX1 (RC=0.87) and PDGFRA (RC=0.98) as having the strongest association with OAVS severity. Using phenotype-specific ogfrautcomes, sib-TDTs identified associations between (1) SIX1 with uni- or bilateral ptosis (p=0.049) and ear tags (p=0.01), (2) PDGFRA and KDR/VEGFR2 with ear tags (both p<0.01).

Conclusion

Our study reports the genomic findings of a large family with multiple individuals affected with OAVS phenotypes with autosomal dominant inheritance. Our findings narrow down to three potential candidate genes, SIX1, PDGFRA, and KDR/VEGFR2. Among these, SIX1 has been previously associated with OAVS ear malformations and it is co-expressed with EYA1 during ear development. Attempts to strengthen the genotype-phenotype co-relation underlying the OAVS of phenotypes are essential to discover the etiological factors leading to this complex and burdensome condition as well as for family counseling and prevention efforts.

The effects of short-term, progressive exercise training on disease activity in smouldering multiple myeloma and monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: a single-arm pilot study

BACKGROUND

High levels of physical activity are associated with reduced risk of the blood cancer multiple myeloma (MM). MM is preceded by the asymptomatic stages of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smouldering multiple myeloma (SMM) which are clinically managed by watchful waiting. A case study (N = 1) of a former elite athlete aged 44 years previously indicated that a multi-modal exercise programme reversed SMM disease activity. To build from this prior case study, the present pilot study firstly examined if short-term exercise training was feasible and safe for a group of MGUS and SMM patients, and secondly investigated the effects on MGUS/SMM disease activity.

METHODS

In this single-arm pilot study, N = 20 participants diagnosed with MGUS or SMM were allocated to receive a 16-week progressive exercise programme. Primary outcome measures were feasibility and safety. Secondary outcomes were pre- to post-exercise training changes to blood biomarkers of MGUS and SMM disease activity- monoclonal (M)-protein and free light chains (FLC)- plus cardiorespiratory and functional fitness, body composition, quality of life, blood immunophenotype, and blood biomarkers of inflammation.

RESULTS

Fifteen (3 MGUS and 12 SMM) participants completed the exercise programme. Adherence was 91 ± 11%. Compliance was 75 ± 25% overall, with a notable decline in compliance at intensities > 70% V̇O2PEAK. There were no serious adverse events. There were no changes to M-protein (0.0 ± 1.0 g/L, P =.903), involved FLC (+ 1.8 ± 16.8 mg/L, P =.839), or FLC difference (+ 0.2 ± 15.6 mg/L, P =.946) from pre- to post-exercise training. There were pre- to post-exercise training improvements to diastolic blood pressure (- 3 ± 5 mmHg, P =.033), sit-to-stand test performance (+ 5 ± 5 repetitions, P =.002), and energy/fatigue scores (+ 10 ± 15%, P =.026). Other secondary outcomes were unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

A 16-week progressive exercise programme was feasible and safe, but did not reverse MGUS/SMM disease activity, contrasting a prior case study showing that five years of exercise training reversed SMM in a 44-year-old former athlete. Longer exercise interventions should be explored in a group of MGUS/SMM patients, with measurements of disease biomarkers, along with rates of disease progression (i.e., MGUS/SMM to MM).

REGISTRATION

https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN65527208 (14/05/2018).

Update from the 5th Edition of the WHO Classification of Nasal, Paranasal, and Skull Base Tumors: Imaging Overview with Histopathologic and Genetic Correlation

Sinonasal and skull base tumors are a heterogeneous group of neoplasms with considerable histologic variation and overlapping imaging features. In 2022, the World Health Organization updated the head and neck tumor classification, further emphasizing the importance of molecular data and genetic alterations in sinonasal neoplasms. The changes include the addition of new entities and discussion of emerging entities, as well as changes to the taxonomy and characterization of tumors. The new classification focuses on entities that develop in these sites either exclusively (eg, olfactory neuroblastoma) or most frequently. Another change includes reduction in the number of categories by creating separate category-specific chapters for soft-tissue, hematolymphoid, and neuroectodermal lesions. In this review, we briefly discuss the various categories in the new classification with a more detailed description of the 2 new entities (SWItch/Sucrose Non-Fermentable complex-deficient sinonasal carcinomas and human papillomavirus-related multiphenotypic sinonasal carcinoma). We also highlight the emerging entities including IDH-mutant sinonasal malignancies and DEK-AFF2 carcinoma, presently classified as sinonasal undifferentiated carcinoma and nonkeratinizing squamous cell carcinoma, respectively.

Effects of Laser Bandwidth in Direct-Drive High-Performance DT-Layered Implosions on the OMEGA Laser

In direct-drive inertial confinement fusion, the laser bandwidth reduces the laser imprinting seed of hydrodynamic instabilities. The impact of varying bandwidth on the performance of direct-drive DT-layered implosions was studied in targets with different hydrodynamic stability properties. The stability was controlled by changing the shell adiabat from (α_{F}≃5) (more stable) to (α_{F}≃3.5) (less stable). These experiments show that the performance of lower adiabat implosions improves considerably as the bandwidth is raised indicating that further bandwidth increases, beyond the current capabilities of OMEGA, would be greatly beneficial. These results suggest that the future generation of ultra-broadband lasers could enable achieving high convergence and possibly high gains in direct drive ICF.

Comparison of paediatric infectious disease deaths in public sector health facilities using different data sources in the Western Cape, South Africa (2007-2021)

BACKGROUND

Routinely collected population-wide health data are often used to understand mortality trends including child mortality, as these data are often available more readily or quickly and for lower geographic levels than population-wide mortality data. However, understanding the completeness and accuracy of routine health data sources is essential for their appropriate interpretation and use. This study aims to assess the accuracy of diagnostic coding for public sector in-facility childhood (age < 5 years) infectious disease deaths (lower respiratory tract infections [LRTI], diarrhoea, meningitis, and tuberculous meningitis [TBM]) in routine hospital information systems (RHIS) through comparison with causes of death identified in a child death audit system (Child Healthcare Problem Identification Programme [Child PIP]) and the vital registration system (Death Notification [DN] Surveillance) in the Western Cape, South Africa and to calculate admission mortality rates (number of deaths in admitted patients per 1000 live births) using the best available data from all sources.

METHODS

The three data sources: RHIS, Child PIP, and DN Surveillance are integrated and linked by the Western Cape Provincial Health Data Centre using a unique patient identifier. We calculated the deduplicated total number of infectious disease deaths and estimated admission mortality rates using all three data sources. We determined the completeness of Child PIP and DN Surveillance in identifying deaths recorded in RHIS and the level of agreement for causes of death between data sources.

RESULTS

Completeness of recorded in-facility infectious disease deaths in Child PIP (23/05/2007-08/02/2021) and DN Surveillance (2010-2013) was 70% and 69% respectively. The greatest agreement in infectious causes of death were for diarrhoea and LRTI: 92% and 84% respectively between RHIS and Child PIP, and 98% and 83% respectively between RHIS and DN Surveillance. In-facility infectious disease admission mortality rates decreased significantly for the province: 1.60 (95% CI: 1.37-1.85) to 0.73 (95% CI: 0.56-0.93) deaths per 1000 live births from 2007 to 2020.

CONCLUSION

RHIS had accurate causes of death amongst children dying from infectious diseases, particularly for diarrhoea and LRTI, with declining in-facility admission mortality rates over time. We recommend integrating data sources to ensure the most accurate assessment of child deaths.

Multi-vendor multi-site quantitative MRI analysis of cartilage degeneration 10 Years after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: MOON-MRI protocol and preliminary results

OBJECTIVE

To describe the protocol of a multi-vendor, multi-site quantitative MRI study for knee post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA), and to present preliminary results of cartilage degeneration using MR T1ρ and T2 imaging 10 years after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR).

DESIGN

This study involves three sites and two MR platforms. The patients are from a nested cohort (termed as Onsite cohort) within the Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) cohort 10 years after ACLR. Phantoms and controls were scanned for evaluating reproducibility. Cartilage was automatically segmented, and T1ρ and T2 were compared between operated, contralateral, and control knees.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight ACL-reconstructed patients and 20 healthy controls were included. In phantoms, the intra-site coefficients of variation (CVs) of repeated scans ranged 1.8-2.1% for T1ρ and 1.3-1.7% for T2. The inter-site CVs ranged 1.6-2.1% for T1ρ and 1.1-1.4% for T2. In human subjects, the intra-site scan/rescan CVs ranged 2.2-3.5% for T1ρ and 2.6-4.9% for T2 for the six major compartments. In patients, operated knees showed significantly higher T1ρ and T2 values mainly in medial femoral condyle, medial tibia and trochlear cartilage compared with contralateral knees, and showed significantly higer T1ρ and T2 values in all six compartments compared to healthy control knees. The patient contralateral knees showed higher T1ρ and T2 values mainly in the lateral femoral condyle, lateral tibia, trochlear, and patellar cartilage compared to healthy control knees.

CONCLUSION

A platform and workflow with rigorous quality control has been established for a multi-vendor multi-site quantitative MRI study in evaluating PTOA 10 years after ACLR. Our preliminary report suggests significant cartilage matrix changes in both operated and contralateral knees compared with healthy control knees.

Prostate Volume Changes during Extreme and Moderately Hypofractionated Magnetic Resonance Image-guided Radiotherapy

AIMS

Prostate morphological changes during external beam radiotherapy are poorly understood. Excellent soft-tissue visualisation offered by magnetic resonance image-guided radiotherapy (MRIgRT) provides an opportunity to better understand such changes. The aim of this study was to quantify prostate volume and dimension changes occurring during extreme and moderately hypofractionated schedules.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Forty prostate cancer patients treated on the Unity 1.5 Tesla magnetic resonance linear accelerator (MRL) were retrospectively reviewed. The cohort comprised patients treated with 36.25 Gy in five fractions (n = 20) and 60 Gy in 20 fractions (n = 20). The volume of the delineated prostates on reference planning computed tomography (fused with MRI) and daily T2-weighted 2-min session images acquired on Unity were charted. Forty planning computed tomography and 500 MRL prostate volumes were evaluated. The mean absolute and relative change in prostate volume during radiotherapy was compared using a paired t-test (P value <0.01 considered significant to control for multiple comparisons). The maximum dimension of the delineated prostate was measured in three isocentric planes.

RESULTS

Significant prostate volume changes, relative to MRL imaging fraction 1 (MRL#1), were seen at all time points for the five-fraction group. The peak mean relative volume increase was 21% (P < 0.001), occurring at MRL#3 and MRL#4 after 14.5 and 21.75 Gy, respectively. Prostate expansion was greatest in the superior-inferior direction; the peak mean maximal extension was 5.9 mm. The maximal extension in the left-right and anterior-posterior directions measured 1.1 and 2.2 mm, respectively. For the 20-fraction group, prostate volume increased relative to MRL#1, for all treatment time points. The mean relative volume increase was 11% (P < 0.001) at MRL#5 after 12 Gy, it then fluctuated between 8 and 13%. From MRL#5 to MRL#20, the volume increase was significant (P < 0.01) for 12 of 16 time points calculated. The peak mean maximal extension in the superior-inferior direction was 3.1 mm. The maximal extension in the left-right and anterior-posterior directions measured 1.7 and 3.7 mm, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Significant prostate volume and dimension changes occur during extreme and moderately hypofractionated radiotherapy. The extent of change was greater during extreme hypofractionation. MRIgRT offers the opportunity to reveal, quantify and correct for this deformation.

1055 SIMPLE APPROACHES TO CHARACTERISING MULTIPLE LONG-TERM CONDITIONS (MULTIMORBIDITY) AND RATES OF HOSPITAL ADMISSION IN UK BIOBANK

Introduction

Multiple approaches are used to describe MLTC, including counts and indices (weighted counts). However, few studies have directly compared different approaches which would be helpful for the design of future MLTC studies. We therefore aimed to compare the prevalence of MLTC and association with emergency hospital admission characterised using different approaches within the same dataset.

Method

We used baseline data from 501,596 UK Biobank participants (age 37-73y) combined with linked hospital episode statistics to characterise MLTC using four approaches: count of body systems affected (CB); count of 43 conditions (CC); Byles index (BI); and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). For each we performed survival analyses to test associations to a combined endpoint of first emergency admission or death over five years from baseline interview, adjusting for age and sex. We used Harrell’s C-index to compare the discriminant value of the four approaches for the combined endpoint.

Results

Prevalence of two or more positive responses (indicating the presence of MLTC) was 45% for CB, 33% for CC, 6% for BI and 2% for CCI. 95,812 (19%) participants had one or more emergency admission or died in the first five years. All four approaches were associated with greater rates of admission/death. For example, using CC, compared to those with zero conditions those with one had 1.42 (95% CI 1.39,1.45), those with two 1.94 (95% CI 1.90,1.98), and those with 3+ conditions had 3.11 (95% CI 3.05,3.17) times greater rates. The predictive value of the four approaches was modest (C-indices ranging from 0.60 to 0.63).

Conclusion

The counts classified a greater proportion of the sample as having MLTC than the indices, highlighting that prevalence estimates of MLTC may vary depending on the approach used. All approaches had strong statistical associations with admission, but only moderate ability to identify individual participants at risk.

External validation of the QCovid risk prediction algorithm for risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality in adults: national validation cohort study in Scotland

BACKGROUND

The QCovid algorithm is a risk prediction tool that can be used to stratify individuals by risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality. Version 1 of the algorithm was trained using data covering 10.5 million patients in England in the period 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. We carried out an external validation of version 1 of the QCovid algorithm in Scotland.

METHODS

We established a national COVID-19 data platform using individual level data for the population of Scotland (5.4 million residents). Primary care data were linked to reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR) virology testing, hospitalisation and mortality data. We assessed the performance of the QCovid algorithm in predicting COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in our dataset for two time periods matching the original study: 1 March 2020 to 30 April 2020, and 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020.

RESULTS

Our dataset comprised 5 384 819 individuals, representing 99% of the estimated population (5 463 300) resident in Scotland in 2020. The algorithm showed good calibration in the first period, but systematic overestimation of risk in the second period, prior to temporal recalibration. Harrell's C for deaths in females and males in the first period was 0.95 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.95) and 0.93 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.93), respectively. Harrell's C for hospitalisations in females and males in the first period was 0.81 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.82) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.82), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Version 1 of the QCovid algorithm showed high levels of discrimination in predicting the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in adults resident in Scotland for the original two time periods studied, but is likely to need ongoing recalibration prospectively.

Lessons Learned from the Preimplementation Phase of an Oral Health Care Project

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT

This commentary highlights that effective implementation of best-practice oral health care in acute geriatric units is built on the time and relationship building invested in the preimplementation phase.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination rates in pregnant women in Scotland

Population-level data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake in pregnancy and SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes are lacking. We describe COVID-19 vaccine uptake and SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant women in Scotland, using whole-population data from a national, prospective cohort. Between the start of a COVID-19 vaccine program in Scotland, on 8 December 2020 and 31 October 2021, 25,917 COVID-19 vaccinations were given to 18,457 pregnant women. Vaccine coverage was substantially lower in pregnant women than in the general female population of 18-44 years; 32.3% of women giving birth in October 2021 had two doses of vaccine compared to 77.4% in all women. The extended perinatal mortality rate for women who gave birth within 28 d of a COVID-19 diagnosis was 22.6 per 1,000 births (95% CI 12.9-38.5; pandemic background rate 5.6 per 1,000 births; 452 out of 80,456; 95% CI 5.1-6.2). Overall, 77.4% (3,833 out of 4,950; 95% CI 76.2-78.6) of SARS-CoV-2 infections, 90.9% (748 out of 823; 95% CI 88.7-92.7) of SARS-CoV-2 associated with hospital admission and 98% (102 out of 104; 95% CI 92.5-99.7) of SARS-CoV-2 associated with critical care admission, as well as all baby deaths, occurred in pregnant women who were unvaccinated at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Addressing low vaccine uptake rates in pregnant women is imperative to protect the health of women and babies in the ongoing pandemic.

Management of adults and children receiving CAR T-cell therapy: 2021 best practice recommendations of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) and the Joint Accreditation Committee of ISCT and EBMT (JACIE) and the European Haematology Association (EHA)

BACKGROUND

Several commercial and academic autologous chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) products targeting CD19 have been approved in Europe for relapsed/refractory B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, high-grade B-cell lymphoma and mantle cell lymphoma. Products for other diseases such as multiple myeloma and follicular lymphoma are likely to be approved by the European Medicines Agency in the near future.

DESIGN

The European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT)-Joint Accreditation Committee of ISCT and EBMT (JACIE) and the European Haematology Association collaborated to draft best practice recommendations based on the current literature to support health care professionals in delivering consistent, high-quality care in this rapidly moving field.

RESULTS

Thirty-six CAR-T experts (medical, nursing, pharmacy/laboratory) assembled to draft recommendations to cover all aspects of CAR-T patient care and supply chain management, from patient selection to long-term follow-up, post-authorisation safety surveillance and regulatory issues.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide practical, clinically relevant recommendations on the use of these high-cost, logistically complex therapies for haematologists/oncologists, nurses and other stakeholders including pharmacists and health sector administrators involved in the delivery of CAR-T in the clinic.

The effect of exercise on left ventricular global longitudinal strain: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

OnBehalf

Cancer Research Institute, Allied Health and Human Performance, University of South Australia

Background/Introduction

Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LVGLS) can detect early myocardial changes prior to clinical abnormalities arising, and is a strong prognostic indicator of future cardiovascular (CV) dysfunction and mortality. It is well established that exercise improves CV function and reduces risk of CV disease. However, the impact of exercise on LVGLS is currently unclear. If LVGLS increases in response to habitual exercise, it could offer a sensitive measure that can determine the effectiveness of an exercise regime on CV health.

Purpose

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine whether exercise impacts LVGLS across a range of healthy and diseased populations.

Methods

Four databases (Medline, Scopus, eMbase, SPORTDiscus) were searched in November 2020. Included studies assessed LVGLS before and after an exercise intervention (minimum 2 weeks) in adults aged 18 years and over, and were published in English from 2000 onwards. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed at a study level using Stata (v16.1) to calculate summary standardized mean differences (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 39 studies met selection criteria, with 35 included in meta-analyses (1765 participants).

Primary meta-analyses included only studies that compared outcomes between one or more intervention arms to a standard (non-exercising) control arm (RCT’s, N-RCT’s, randomised crossover). Secondary analyses included data from studies with intervention arms only (single group pre-post studies, intervention group from RCT’s, N-RCT’s, randomised crossover).

Results

Primary:

In populations with CV disease, a moderate effect of exercise was observed compared to non-exercising controls (SMD = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.16-1.02; p = 0.01 – figure 1a). No significant effect of exercise was observed for CV risk (SMD = 0.07; 95% CI, -0.15-0.29; p = 0.56 – figure 1b) and healthy (SMD = -0.20; 95% CI, -0.73-0.33; p = 0.45) populations compared to non-exercising controls.

Secondary

In secondary meta-analyses, significant effects of exercise were observed in CV disease (SMD = 0.26; 95% CI, 0.07-0.46; p = 0.01), CV risk (SMD = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.15-0.93; p = 0.01), chronic kidney disease (SMD = 0.65; 95% CI, 0.03-1.28; p = 0.04) and athletic (SMD = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.20-0.41; p= &lt;0.001) populations.

Conclusion(s)

Increases in LVGLS observed in populations with CV disease may assist the prevention of secondary CV events. Secondary findings may support the use of exercise across a range of populations to increase LVGLS and enhance CV function. Future research must address the methodological limitations that currently exist, including improving upon study designs and reporting of individual data. Abstract Figure.

Behcet's Disease (BD) Presenting as a Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis (CVST)

Presentation 20 year old Caucasian male presented to eye casualty 4 weeks post initial diagnosis of bilateral acute anterior uveitis (AAU), with a three-week history of a progressively worsening headache associated with nausea and vomiting. Diagnosis Non-contrast Computed Topography of the head and Magnetic Resonance venogram revealed a cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). He had a long-standing history of intermittent oral ulceration, and was diagnosed with Neuro Behcet's Disease (NBD). Treatment The patient was commenced on a therapeutic dose of enoxaparin and prednisolone, and was discharged on enoxaparin, warfarin, tapering prednisolone and azathioprine. Discussion/Conclusion NBD is a rare, but serious manifestation of BD. BD is an important differential diagnosis in a young patient presenting with CVST or bilateral AAU.

904 ‘Excuse me, Sir?’ - A Case for Compassion and Non-discrimination in Surgery

Background

The delivery of compassionate and non-discriminatory care to all patients in the hospital environment is vital. Yet, this striking surgical case report demonstrates that ignorance and prejudice against transgender patients still exists, resulting in poorer health outcomes.

Case presentation

A 64-year-old transgender woman presented with severe epigastric pain and left arm weakness. She became haemodynamically unstable as a result of Type A aortic dissection during thrombolysis for a presumed ischaemic stroke. The patient was addressed as ‘Sir’ on multiple occasions causing her visible distress; she confided in the team that she felt judged and that her concerns were not taken seriously. When the thoracic surgery registrar was informed that the patient was transgender and used female pronouns, their reply was that this information was ‘irrelevant’ and ‘unimportant’.

Conclusions

Barriers to health care for transgender individuals and a focus on compassion when treating the surgical patient are discussed. A lack of education, individual ignorance and the serious nature of this case led to psychological distress and may have contributed to a delay in diagnosis. There is an urgent need to raise awareness of transgender health disparities in medical and surgical training, to ensure that all patients are treated equally, and their dignity is maintained, even in challenging and stressful situations. Appropriate engagement and leadership from senior members of the surgical team will foster non-discriminatory practices and the creation of an inclusive environment, focusing on the use of correct pronouns and addressing patient concerns.

The effect of iron deficiency and anaemia on women's health

Iron deficiency and anaemia are global health problems and major causes of morbidity in women. Current definitions of anaemia in women are historic and have been challenged by recent data from observational studies. Menstrual loss, abnormal uterine bleeding and pregnancy put women at risk of developing iron deficiency which can result in severe fatigue, reduced exercise capacity and poor work performance. Iron deficiency and anaemia during pregnancy are associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcomes, including neurocognitive deficits in children born to iron-deficient mothers. Both iron deficiency and anaemia are common in women undergoing surgery but their association with poor outcomes remains uncertain. The enduring burden of iron deficiency and anaemia in women suggests that current strategies for recognition, prevention and treatment are limited in their utility. Improvements in our understanding of iron homeostasis and the development of new iron preparations, which are better absorbed with fewer side-effects, may improve therapeutic effectiveness of oral iron. Intravenous iron is efficacious for correcting anaemia rapidly but high-quality data on patient-centred outcomes and cost-effectiveness are currently lacking. Many recommendations for the treatment of iron deficiency and anaemia in national guidelines are not supported by high-quality evidence. There is a need for robust epidemiological data and well-designed clinical trials. The latter will require collaborative working between researchers and patients to design studies in ways that incorporate patients' perspectives on the research process and target outcomes that matter to them.

Absence of association between 2019-20 influenza vaccination and COVID-19: Results of the European I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care project, March-August 2020

BACKGROUND

Claims of influenza vaccination increasing COVID-19 risk are circulating. Within the I-MOVE-COVID-19 primary care multicentre study, we measured the association between 2019-20 influenza vaccination and COVID-19.

METHODS

We conducted a multicentre test-negative case-control study at primary care level, in study sites in five European countries, from March to August 2020. Patients presenting with acute respiratory infection were swabbed, with demographic, 2019-20 influenza vaccination and clinical information documented. Using logistic regression, we measured the adjusted odds ratio (aOR), adjusting for study site and age, sex, calendar time, presence of chronic conditions. The main analysis included patients swabbed ≤7 days after onset from the three countries with <15% of missing influenza vaccination. In secondary analyses, we included five countries, using multiple imputation with chained equations to account for missing data.

RESULTS

We included 257 COVID-19 cases and 1631 controls in the main analysis (three countries). The overall aOR between influenza vaccination and COVID-19 was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.66-1.32). The aOR was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.58-1.46) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.51-1.67) among those aged 20-59 and ≥60 years, respectively. In secondary analyses, we included 6457 cases and 69 272 controls. The imputed aOR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95) among all ages and any delay between swab and symptom onset.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence that COVID-19 cases were more likely to be vaccinated against influenza than controls. Influenza vaccination should be encouraged among target groups for vaccination. I-MOVE-COVID-19 will continue documenting influenza vaccination status in 2020-21, in order to learn about effects of recent influenza vaccination.

First-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in Scotland

Reports of ChAdOx1 vaccine-associated thrombocytopenia and vascular adverse events have led to some countries restricting its use. Using a national prospective cohort, we estimated associations between exposure to first-dose ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 vaccination and hematological and vascular adverse events using a nested incident-matched case-control study and a confirmatory self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis. An association was found between ChAdOx1 vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) (0-27 d after vaccination; adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 5.77, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.41-13.83), with an estimated incidence of 1.13 (0.62-1.63) cases per 100,000 doses. An SCCS analysis confirmed that this was unlikely due to bias (RR = 1.98 (1.29-3.02)). There was also an increased risk for arterial thromboembolic events (aRR = 1.22, 1.12-1.34) 0-27 d after vaccination, with an SCCS RR of 0.97 (0.93-1.02). For hemorrhagic events 0-27 d after vaccination, the aRR was 1.48 (1.12-1.96), with an SCCS RR of 0.95 (0.82-1.11). A first dose of ChAdOx1 was found to be associated with small increased risks of ITP, with suggestive evidence of an increased risk of arterial thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. The attenuation of effect found in the SCCS analysis means that there is the potential for overestimation of the reported results, which might indicate the presence of some residual confounding or confounding by indication. Public health authorities should inform their jurisdictions of these relatively small increased risks associated with ChAdOx1. No positive associations were seen between BNT162b2 and thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events.

Investigation and management of prosthetic joint infection in knee replacement: A BASK Surgical Practice Guideline

BACKGROUND

The burden of knee replacement prosthetic joint infection (KR PJI) is increasing. KR PJI is difficult to treat, outcomes can be poor and it is financially expensive and limited evidence is available to guide treatment decisions.

AIM

To provide guidelines for surgeons and units treating KR PJI.

METHODS

Guideline formation by consensus process undertaken by BASK's Revision Knee Working Group, supported by outputs from UK-PJI meetings.

RESULTS

Improved outcomes should be achieved through provision of care by revision centres in a network model. Treatment of KR PJI should only be undertaken at specialist units with the required infrastructure and a regular infection MDT. This document outlines practice guidelines for units providing a KR PJI service and sets out: CONCLUSIONS: KR PJI patients treated within the NHS should be provided the best care possible. This report sets out guidance and support for surgeons and units to achieve this.

Enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland: population-based seroprevalence surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic

Objectives

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland has been amongst the most severe in Europe. Serological surveillance is critical to determine the overall extent of infection across populations and to inform the public health response. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of people who have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (‘seroprevalence’) in the general population of Scotland and to see if this changes over time.

Study design/Methods

Between International Organization for Standardization (ISO) week 17 (i.e. week commencing 20th April) and ISO week 25 (week commencing 15 June), 4751 residual blood samples were obtained from regional biochemistry laboratories in six participating regional health authority areas covering approximately 75% of the Scottish population. Samples were tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using the LIAISON®SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG assay (DiaSorin, Italy). Seroprevalence rates were adjusted for the sensitivity and specificity of the assay using Bayesian methods.

Results

The combined adjusted seroprevalence across the study period was 4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.2%–4.5%). The proportion varied each week between 1.9% and 6.8% with no difference in antibody positivity by age, sex or geographical area.

Conclusions

At the end of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, only a small fraction of the Scottish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Control of COVID-19 requires the ability to detect asymptomatic and mild infections that would otherwise remain undetected through existing surveillance systems. This is important to determine the true number of infections within the general population which, in turn, can help to understand transmission, inform control measures and provide a denominator for the estimation of severity measures such as the proportion of infected people who have been hospitalised and/or have died.

Retrospective audit of inter-fraction motion for pelvic node radiotherapy in prostate cancer patients

INTRODUCTION

Pelvic lymph nodes move independently to the prostate. When delivering radiotherapy to prostate and pelvic lymph nodes, daily inter- and intra-fraction anatomical changes need to be accounted for. Planning target volume (PTV) margins, grown from the pelvic lymph node clinical target volume need to be determined, to account for this variation in position.

METHODS

Twenty patients who had daily online image guided radiotherapy to prostate and pelvic lymph nodes between April and December 2018 were selected. Ten pre-treatment verification images using cone beam CT from each patient were registered to pelvic bone anatomy, prostate soft tissue or fiducial markers and pelvic lymph node soft tissue to assess the accuracy of treatment delivery. Population systematic and random errors and PTV margins were calculated.

RESULTS

PTV margins of 0.4 cm, 0.4 cm and 0.7 cm left-right (LR), superior-inferior (SI) and anterior-posterior (AP) respectively were derived for the pelvic lymph nodes when registering to prostate. PTV margins of 0.3 cm, 0.2 cm and 0.4 cm LR, SI and AP respectively were derived for the pelvic lymph nodes when registering to bone. There was a posterior systematic shift of the prostate during the treatment course.

CONCLUSION

There is differential motion of pelvic lymph nodes to prostate and in the era of prostate and pelvic radiotherapy for patients with node positive prostate cancer; there is increasing importance in the accuracy of dose delivery to the involved lymph node. Hence, this group of patients may benefit from personalised radiotherapy PTV margins, especially if the involved pelvic lymph node is within the anterior part of the clinical target volume.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Optimisation of dose delivery to the pelvic lymph nodes when prioritising the prostate in prostate and pelvic lymph node image guided radiotherapy.

Differential influences of early growth and social factors on young children's cognitive performance in four low-and-middle-income birth cohorts (Brazil, Guatemala, Philippines, and South Africa)

Background

Studies relating childhood cognitive development to poor linear growth seldom take adequate account of social conditions related to both, leading to a focus on nutrition interventions. We aimed to assess the roles of both biological and social conditions in determining early childhood cognition, mediated by birthweight and early linear growth.

Methods

After exploratory structural equation modelling to identify determining factors, we tested direct and indirect paths to cognitive performance through birthweight and child height-for-age at 2 years, assessed between 4 and 8.5 years of age among 2448 children in four birth cohort studies in low-and-middle-income countries (Brazil, Guatemala, Philippines and South Africa). Determinants were compared across the cohorts.

Findings

Three factors yielded excellent fit, comprising birth endowment (primarily maternal age and birth order), household resources (crowding, dependency) and parental capacity (parental education). We estimated their strength together with maternal height in determining cognitive performance. Percentage shares of total effects of the four determinants show a marked transition from mainly biological determinants of birth weight (birth endowment 34%) and maternal height (30%) compared to household resources (25%) and parental capacity (11%), through largely economic determinants of height at 2 years (household resources (60%) to cognitive performance being predominantly determined by parental capacity (64%) followed by household resources (29%). The largely biological factor, birth endowment (maternal age and birth order) contributed only 7% to childhood cognitive performance and maternal height was insignificant. In summary, the combined share of social total effects (household resources and parental capacity) rises from 36∙2% on birth weight, to 78∙2% on height for age at 24 m, and 93∙4% on cognitive functioning.

Interpretation

Across four low- and middle-income contexts, cognition in childhood is influenced more by the parental capacity of families and their economic resources than by birth weight and early linear growth. Improving children's cognitive functioning requires multi-sectoral interventions to improve parental education and enhance their economic wellbeing, interventions that are known to improve also early childhood growth.

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We aimed to investigate separate and combined biological and social determination of young children’s cognitive performance.

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We used path analysis of longitudinal data from birth cohort studies in four differing low-and-middle countries.

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We distinguished biological and social factors, as well as household resources from parental capacity.

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Biological factors determine birthweight, 2-year height depends on social factors, and the latter drive child cognitive performance.

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No single domain intervention provides both necessary and sufficient support for young children’s unfolding development.

Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II): protocol for an observational study using linked Scottish national data

INTRODUCTION

Following the emergence of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019 and the ensuing COVID-19 pandemic, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of existing or new therapeutic or preventive interventions are required to ensure that interventions are targeted to those at highest risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19. We aim to repurpose and expand an existing pandemic reporting platform to determine the attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine (once available) and any protective effect conferred by existing or new antimicrobial drugs and other therapies.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A prospective observational cohort will be used to monitor daily/weekly the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic and to evaluate the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions in approximately 5.4 million individuals registered in general practices across Scotland. A national linked dataset of patient-level primary care data, out-of-hours, hospitalisation, mortality and laboratory data will be assembled. The primary outcomes will measure association between: (A) laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, morbidity and mortality, and demographic, socioeconomic and clinical population characteristics; and (B) healthcare burden of COVID-19 and demographic, socioeconomic and clinical population characteristics. The secondary outcomes will estimate: (A) the uptake (for vaccines only); (B) effectiveness; and (C) safety of new or existing therapies, vaccines and antimicrobials against SARS-CoV-2 infection. The association between population characteristics and primary outcomes will be assessed via multivariate logistic regression models. The effectiveness of therapies, vaccines and antimicrobials will be assessed from time-dependent Cox models or Poisson regression models. Self-controlled study designs will be explored to estimate the risk of therapeutic and prophylactic-related adverse events.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We obtained approval from the National Research Ethics Service Committee, Southeast Scotland 02. The study findings will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Silicosis and pulmonary tuberculosis in deceased female South African miners

BACKGROUND

Implementation of South Africa's 2002 Mining Charter increased women's participation in underground mining. However, occupational lung diseases (OLDs) in female gold miners have not been studied.

AIMS

To compare autopsy-diagnosed pulmonary silicosis, lymph gland silicosis (a precursor of pulmonary silicosis) and active pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in South African gold miners.

METHODS

The law allows for autopsies on miners for OLD compensation. Information is stored on the Pathology Automation (PATHAUT) database. We selected records of deceased miners who had worked only in gold mines, started employment from 2002, and were autopsied between 2005 and 2015. Using descriptive statistics, we compared demographic and employment characteristics, and disease proportions by sex.

RESULTS

The study comprised 847 gold miners: 68 women and 779 men. There were no statistically significant differences in proportions of autopsy-diagnosed pulmonary silicosis [3 (4%) in women and 54 (7%) in men], lymph gland silicosis [11 (16%) and 171 (22%)] or PTB [29 (43%) and 254 (33%)]. Age and employment duration in women and men with disease were similar. Most miners with pulmonary silicosis had started employment from 2003 [315 (77%)] and worked for under 10 years.

CONCLUSION

It is important to report research findings by sex. Proportions of silicosis and PTB were comparable in women and men, suggesting similar exposures. Silicosis detection after short employment indicates inadequate dust control, particularly as most entered the industry after implementation of interventions to control silica dust in 2003.