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Mee PT, Buultjens AH, Oliver J, Brown K, Crowder JC, Porter JL, Hobbs EC, Judd LM, Taiaroa G, Puttharak N, Williamson DA, Blasdell KR, Tay EL, Feldman R, Muzari MO, Sanders C, Larsen S, Crouch SR, Johnson PDR, Wallace JR, Price DJ, Hoffmann AA, Gibney KB, Stinear TP, Lynch SE. Publisher Correction: Mosquitoes provide a transmission route between possums and humans for Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia. Nat Microbiol 2024:10.1038/s41564-024-01693-y. [PMID: 38622381 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-024-01693-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/17/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Peter T Mee
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Andrew H Buultjens
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jane Oliver
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Karen Brown
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jodie C Crowder
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jessica L Porter
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emma C Hobbs
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Louise M Judd
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - George Taiaroa
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Natsuda Puttharak
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Deborah A Williamson
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Kim R Blasdell
- Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, CSIRO, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ee Laine Tay
- Department of Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Mutizwa Odwell Muzari
- Medical Entomology, Tropical Public Health Services Cairns, Cairns and Hinterland Hospital and Health Services, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
| | - Chris Sanders
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Stuart Larsen
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Simon R Crouch
- South East Public Health Unit, Monash Health, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Paul D R Johnson
- North East Public Health Unit, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - John R Wallace
- Department of Biology, Millersville University, Millersville, PA, USA
| | - David J Price
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ary A Hoffmann
- Pest and Environmental Adaptation Research Group, School of BioSciences, Bio21 Institute, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Timothy P Stinear
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Mycobacterium ulcerans, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Stacey E Lynch
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
- Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, CSIRO, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
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Goldsmith JJ, Vu C, Zhu Z, MacLachlan JH, Thomson TN, Campbell PT, Gibney KB. The associations between invasive group A streptococcal disease and infection with influenza, varicella, or hepatitis C viruses: A data linkage study, Victoria, Australia. Int J Infect Dis 2024; 141:106969. [PMID: 38387705 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2024.02.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2023] [Revised: 02/13/2024] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To quantify the associations between invasive group A streptococcal disease (iGAS) incidence and influenza, varicella, and chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV). METHODS We used individual-level linked data of iGAS cases from Victoria, Australia (2007-2017) to assess associations between these viral infections and iGAS. A self-controlled case series method was used to estimate the relative incidence of iGAS following an influenza or varicella infection, while the relative incidence of iGAS among HCV cases, and HCV cases who inject drugs, was estimated using population-level data and a negative binomial regression model. RESULTS Of the 1949 individuals with at least one iGAS diagnosis, 82 were diagnosed with influenza at least once, 30 with varicella, and 118 with HCV during the study period. The relative incidence of iGAS increased substantially following infection with influenza (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 34.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.3-55.8) or varicella (IRR: 22.4, 95% CI: 10.3-48.8). iGAS incidence was higher among HCV cases (IRR: 5.7, 95% CI: 4.4-7.3) compared to individuals without HCV. iGAS incidence was also higher among HCV cases who inject drugs (IRR: 17.9, 95% CI: 13.0-24.4) compared to individuals without HCV who did not inject drugs. CONCLUSIONS We found a significantly higher risk of iGAS following an influenza or varicella infection and for chronic HCV cases, particularly those who inject drugs. These findings are relevant to public health practice and support the timely identification of iGAS cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessie J Goldsmith
- The University of Melbourne, Department of Infectious Diseases, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Christy Vu
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Ziheng Zhu
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jennifer H MacLachlan
- The University of Melbourne, Department of Infectious Diseases, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Tilda N Thomson
- The University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Patricia Therese Campbell
- The University of Melbourne, Department of Infectious Diseases, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- The University of Melbourne, Department of Infectious Diseases, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
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3
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Hung TY, Phuong LK, Grobler A, Tong SYC, Freeth P, Pelenda A, Gibney KB, Steer AC. Antibiotics to eradicate Streptococcus pyogenes pharyngeal carriage in asymptomatic children and adults: A systematic review. J Infect 2024; 88:106104. [PMID: 38360357 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.01.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2023] [Accepted: 01/14/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024]
Abstract
Streptococcus pyogenes (S. pyogenes) is a Gram-positive bacteria which causes a spectrum of diseases ranging from asymptomatic infection to life-threatening sepsis. Studies report up to 2000 times greater risk of invasive S. pyogenes disease in close contacts of index cases within 30-days of symptom onset. Despite this, there is variability in the management of asymptomatic carriage of S. pyogenes and those at risk of secondary cases of invasive S. pyogenes infection. OBJECTIVE Our systematic review assessed the efficacy of different antibiotic regimens used for eradication of S. pyogenes from the pharynx in asymptomatic individuals. METHODS We searched Pubmed, EMBASE (1974-), OVID Medline (1948-) and the Cochrane CENTRAL registry. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with asymptomatic participants with >50% with pharyngeal cultures positive with S. pyogenes at baseline. Only studies with microbiological methods including culture (+/- polymerase chain reaction, PCR) were included. We included studies published in English. Each included study was assessed by two independent reviewers for data extraction and risk of bias. RESULTS Of 1166 unique records identified, three RCTs were included in the review. Two of the three included RCTs found oral clindamycin for 10-days was the most efficacious regimen, compared to intramuscular benzathine penicillin G followed by 4 days of oral rifampicin, or monotherapy using benzathine penicillin, phenoxymethylpenicillin or erythromycin. Two RCTs were assessed as being at high risk of bias, with the third study demonstrating low/some risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS Current available evidence for the optimal antibiotic in eradicating pharyngeal S. pyogenes carriage is limited. Future RCTs should include penicillin, first-generation cephalosporins, rifampicin, macrolides (such as azithromycin) and clindamycin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Te-Yu Hung
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Paediatrics, Royal Darwin Hospital, Top End Health Service, Northern Territory, Australia.
| | - Linny K Phuong
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of General Medicine, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Tropical Diseases, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Anneke Grobler
- Tropical Diseases, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Steven Y C Tong
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Pippin Freeth
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of General Medicine, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Asika Pelenda
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of General Medicine, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Andrew C Steer
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of General Medicine, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Tropical Diseases, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
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Oliver J, Ferdinand A, Hussein A, Hussein R, Kaufman J, Edler P, Allard N, Danchin M, Gibney KB. Evaluating a peer-to-peer health education program in Australian public housing communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Health Serv Res 2024; 24:250. [PMID: 38413968 PMCID: PMC10900559 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-024-10627-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 02/29/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The cohealth Health Concierge program operated in Melbourne, Australia from July 2020 to 30 June 2022. It provided peer-to-peer support to culturally and linguistically diverse residents of high-rise public housing. During this time, the COVID-19 public health response changed frequently and included movement restriction, testing and vaccination. We conducted a mixed-methods evaluation to determine the Health Concierge program's impact on residents' engagement with health services and public health activities. METHODS The evaluation, informed by a Project Reference Group, used the RE-AIM framework. We analysed data from 20,901 routinely collected forms describing interactions between Concierges and residents from August 2021 to May 2022. Additional evaluation-specific data were collected between March and May 2022 in four housing estates; we surveyed 301 residents and conducted 32 interviews with residents, Concierges and program stakeholders. RESULTS Concierges promoted COVID-safe behaviours; linked residents with support, testing and vaccination services; and disseminated up-to-date information. Of the 20,901 recorded interactions, 8,872 (42%) included Concierges providing support around COVID-19 vaccination. Most surveyed residents (191/301, 63%) reported speaking with a Concierge in the previous six months. The self-reported two-dose COVID-19 vaccine uptake was 94% (283/301). Some residents described having meaningful, appreciated conversations with Concierges, and some described superficial interactions. While residents initially welcomed the program, many felt it failed to evolve. Poorly defined management and hiring criteria led to variable program implementation. A need for bicultural workers to continue linking residents with services was discussed. CONCLUSIONS Concierges' impact on residents may have contributed to high community uptake of COVID-19 testing and vaccination, and had benefits beyond the COVID-19 remit. We recommend the program be revised and continued to inform further preparedness planning and support service access generally. Program models such as this have potential to inform and reassure high-risk communities during a pandemic. In addition, such programs can help overcome vaccine hesitancy and promote protective health behaviours, regardless of whether a pandemic is currently occurring. Ensuring these programs remain responsive to the changing needs of end-users needs over time is imperative.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane Oliver
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia.
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3052, Australia.
| | - Angeline Ferdinand
- Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
| | - Awil Hussein
- North Melbourne Resident Action Group, Melbourne, VIC, 3052, Australia
| | - Ruqiyo Hussein
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
| | - Jessica Kaufman
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3052, Australia
| | - Peta Edler
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
| | - Nicole Allard
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
- cohealth, Melbourne, VIC, 3066, Australia
| | - Margie Danchin
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3052, Australia
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
- Department of General Medicine, The Royal Childrens Hospital Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3052, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
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Gibney KB, Bowen AC. Increase in iGAS incidence: a call to action for effective prevention and treatment. Lancet Child Adolesc Health 2024; 8:88-89. [PMID: 38103565 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-4642(23)00320-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2023] [Revised: 11/24/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.
| | - Asha C Bowen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Perth Children's Hospital, Perth, WA, Australia; Wesfarmers Centre for Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
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6
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Mee PT, Buultjens AH, Oliver J, Brown K, Crowder JC, Porter JL, Hobbs EC, Judd LM, Taiaroa G, Puttharak N, Williamson DA, Blasdell KR, Tay EL, Feldman R, Muzari MO, Sanders C, Larsen S, Crouch SR, Johnson PDR, Wallace JR, Price DJ, Hoffmann AA, Gibney KB, Stinear TP, Lynch SE. Mosquitoes provide a transmission route between possums and humans for Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia. Nat Microbiol 2024; 9:377-389. [PMID: 38263454 PMCID: PMC10847040 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-023-01553-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024]
Abstract
Buruli ulcer, a chronic subcutaneous infection caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, is increasing in prevalence in southeastern Australia. Possums are a local wildlife reservoir for M. ulcerans and, although mosquitoes have been implicated in transmission, it remains unclear how humans acquire infection. We conducted extensive field survey analyses of M. ulcerans prevalence among mosquitoes in the Mornington Peninsula region of southeastern Australia. PCR screening of trapped mosquitoes revealed a significant association between M. ulcerans and Aedes notoscriptus. Spatial scanning statistics revealed overlap between clusters of M. ulcerans-positive Ae. notoscriptus, M. ulcerans-positive possum excreta and Buruli ulcer cases, and metabarcoding analyses showed individual mosquitoes had fed on humans and possums. Bacterial genomic analysis confirmed shared single-nucleotide-polymorphism profiles for M. ulcerans detected in mosquitoes, possum excreta and humans. These findings indicate Ae. notoscriptus probably transmit M. ulcerans in southeastern Australia and highlight mosquito control as a Buruli ulcer prevention measure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter T Mee
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Andrew H Buultjens
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jane Oliver
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Karen Brown
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jodie C Crowder
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jessica L Porter
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emma C Hobbs
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Louise M Judd
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - George Taiaroa
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Natsuda Puttharak
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Deborah A Williamson
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Kim R Blasdell
- Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, CSIRO, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ee Laine Tay
- Department of Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Mutizwa Odwell Muzari
- Medical Entomology, Tropical Public Health Services Cairns, Cairns and Hinterland Hospital and Health Services, Cairns, Queensland, Australia
| | - Chris Sanders
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Stuart Larsen
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Simon R Crouch
- South East Public Health Unit, Monash Health, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Paul D R Johnson
- North East Public Health Unit, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia
| | - John R Wallace
- Department of Biology, Millersville University, Millersville, PA, USA
| | - David J Price
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ary A Hoffmann
- Pest and Environmental Adaptation Research Group, School of BioSciences, Bio21 Institute, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Timothy P Stinear
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Mycobacterium ulcerans, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Stacey E Lynch
- Centre for AgriBioscience, AgriBio, Agriculture Victoria, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
- Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, CSIRO, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
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7
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Pedrana A, Bowring A, Heath K, Thomas AJ, Wilkinson A, Fletcher-Lartey S, Saich F, Munari S, Oliver J, Merner B, Altermatt A, Nguyen T, Nguyen L, Young K, Kerr P, Osborne D, Kwong EJL, Corona MV, Ke T, Zhang Y, Eisa L, Al-Qassas A, Malith D, Davis A, Gibbs L, Block K, Horyniak D, Wallace J, Power R, Vadasz D, Ryan R, Shearer F, Homer C, Collie A, Meagher N, Danchin M, Kaufman J, Wang P, Hassani A, Sadewo GRP, Robins G, Gallagher C, Matous P, Roden B, Karkavandi MA, Coutinho J, Broccatelli C, Koskinen J, Curtis S, Doyle JS, Geard N, Hill S, Coelho A, Scott N, Lusher D, Stoové MA, Gibney KB, Hellard M. Priority populations' experiences of isolation, quarantine and distancing for COVID-19: protocol for a longitudinal cohort study (Optimise Study). BMJ Open 2024; 14:e076907. [PMID: 38216183 PMCID: PMC10806709 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-076907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/14/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Longitudinal studies can provide timely and accurate information to evaluate and inform COVID-19 control and mitigation strategies and future pandemic preparedness. The Optimise Study is a multidisciplinary research platform established in the Australian state of Victoria in September 2020 to collect epidemiological, social, psychological and behavioural data from priority populations. It aims to understand changing public attitudes, behaviours and experiences of COVID-19 and inform epidemic modelling and support responsive government policy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS This protocol paper describes the data collection procedures for the Optimise Study, an ongoing longitudinal cohort of ~1000 Victorian adults and their social networks. Participants are recruited using snowball sampling with a set of seeds and two waves of snowball recruitment. Seeds are purposively selected from priority groups, including recent COVID-19 cases and close contacts and people at heightened risk of infection and/or adverse outcomes of COVID-19 infection and/or public health measures. Participants complete a schedule of monthly quantitative surveys and daily diaries for up to 24 months, plus additional surveys annually for up to 48 months. Cohort participants are recruited for qualitative interviews at key time points to enable in-depth exploration of people's lived experiences. Separately, community representatives are invited to participate in community engagement groups, which review and interpret research findings to inform policy and practice recommendations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The Optimise longitudinal cohort and qualitative interviews are approved by the Alfred Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (# 333/20). The Optimise Study CEG is approved by the La Trobe University Human Ethics Committee (# HEC20532). All participants provide informed verbal consent to enter the cohort, with additional consent provided prior to any of the sub studies. Study findings will be disseminated through public website (https://optimisecovid.com.au/study-findings/) and through peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT05323799.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alisa Pedrana
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Anna Bowring
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | - Anna Wilkinson
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Freya Saich
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Jane Oliver
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Bronwen Merner
- Centre for Health Communication and Participation, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Thi Nguyen
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Long Nguyen
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Phoebe Kerr
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | - Martha Vazquez Corona
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Tianhui Ke
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Yanqin Zhang
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Limya Eisa
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Deng Malith
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Angela Davis
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lisa Gibbs
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Disaster Management and Public Safety, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Karen Block
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Danielle Horyniak
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jack Wallace
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Robert Power
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Danny Vadasz
- Health Issues Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Rebecca Ryan
- Centre for Health Communication and Participation, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Freya Shearer
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Alex Collie
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Niamh Meagher
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Margaret Danchin
- Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jessica Kaufman
- Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Peng Wang
- School of Business, Law and Entrepreneurship, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia
- SNA Toolbox, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | - Garry Robins
- Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Colin Gallagher
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Petr Matous
- The University of Sydney Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Bopha Roden
- School of Business, Law and Entrepreneurship, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - James Coutinho
- School of Business, Law and Entrepreneurship, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia
| | - Chiara Broccatelli
- Institute for Social Science Research, The University of Queensland, Saint Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Johan Koskinen
- Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Stephanie Curtis
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Joseph S Doyle
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Nicholas Geard
- School of Computing & Information Systems, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sophie Hill
- Centre for Health Communication and Participation, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Nick Scott
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Dean Lusher
- School of Business, Law and Entrepreneurship, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia
- SNA Toolbox, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Mark A Stoové
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Margaret Hellard
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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8
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McNamara BJ, Blasdell KR, Yerramilli A, Smith IL, Clayton SL, Dunn M, Tay EL, Gibney KB, Waidyatillake NT, Hussain MA, Muleme M, O'Brien DP, Athan E. Comprehensive Case-Control Study of Protective and Risk Factors for Buruli Ulcer, Southeastern Australia. Emerg Infect Dis 2023; 29:2032-2043. [PMID: 37735741 PMCID: PMC10521623 DOI: 10.3201/eid2910.230011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/23/2023] Open
Abstract
To examine protective and risk factors for Buruli ulcer (BU), we conducted a case-control study of 245 adult BU cases and 481 postcode-matched controls across BU-endemic areas of Victoria, Australia. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios for socio-environmental, host, and behavioral factors associated with BU by using conditional logistic regression. Odds of BU were >2-fold for persons with diabetes mellitus and persons working outdoors who had soil contact in BU-endemic areas (compared with indoor work) but were lower among persons who had bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccinations. BU was associated with increasing numbers of possums and with ponds and bore water use at residences. Using insect repellent, covering arms and legs outdoors, and immediately washing wounds were protective; undertaking multiple protective behaviors was associated with the lowest odds of BU. Skin hygiene/protection behaviors and previous bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination might provide protection against BU in BU-endemic areas.
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9
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Kuut TA, Müller F, Csorba I, Braamse A, Aldenkamp A, Appelman B, Assmann-Schuilwerve E, Geerlings SE, Gibney KB, Kanaan RAA, Mooij-Kalverda K, Hartman TCO, Pauëlsen D, Prins M, Slieker K, van Vugt M, Keijmel SP, Nieuwkerk P, Rovers CP, Knoop H. Efficacy of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy Targeting Severe Fatigue Following Coronavirus Disease 2019: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial. Clin Infect Dis 2023; 77:687-695. [PMID: 37155736 PMCID: PMC10495128 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciad257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Revised: 04/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/22/2023] [Indexed: 05/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Severe fatigue following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is prevalent and debilitating. This study investigated the efficacy of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for severe fatigue following COVID-19. METHODS A multicenter, 2-arm randomized controlled trial was conducted in the Netherlands with patients being severely fatigued 3-12 months following COVID-19. Patients (N = 114) were randomly assigned (1:1) to CBT or care as usual (CAU). CBT, targeting perpetuating factors of fatigue, was provided for 17 weeks. The primary outcome was the overall mean difference between CBT and CAU on the fatigue severity subscale of the Checklist Individual Strength, directly post-CBT or CAU (T1), and after 6 months (T2). Secondary outcomes were differences in proportions of patients meeting criteria for severe and/or chronic fatigue, differences in physical and social functioning, somatic symptoms, and problems concentrating between CBT and CAU. RESULTS Patients were mainly nonhospitalized and self-referred. Patients who received CBT were significantly less severely fatigued across follow-up assessments than patients receiving CAU (-8.8 [95% confidence interval {CI}, -11.9 to -5.8]); P < .001), representing a medium Cohen's d effect size (0.69). The between-group difference in fatigue severity was present at T1 (-9.3 [95% CI, -13.3 to -5.3]) and T2 (-8.4 [95% CI, -13.1 to -3.7]). All secondary outcomes favored CBT. Eight adverse events were recorded during CBT, and 20 during CAU. No serious adverse events were recorded. CONCLUSIONS Among patients, who were mainly nonhospitalized and self-referred, CBT was effective in reducing fatigue. The positive effect was sustained at 6-month follow-up. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION Netherlands Trial Register NL8947.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tanja A Kuut
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Fabiola Müller
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Irene Csorba
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Annemarie Braamse
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Arnoud Aldenkamp
- Department of Lung Medicine, Catharina Hospital, 5623 EJ Eindhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Brent Appelman
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Suzanne E Geerlings
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Institute for Infection and immunity, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, 3000 Victoria, Australia
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, 3000 Victoria, Australia
| | - Richard A A Kanaan
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, 3084 Victoria, Australia
| | - Kirsten Mooij-Kalverda
- Department of Pulmonology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Tim C Olde Hartman
- Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, 6500 HB Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Dominique Pauëlsen
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Maria Prins
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Institute for Infection and immunity, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, 1018 WT Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Kitty Slieker
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bernhoven Hospital, 5406 PT Uden, The Netherlands
| | - Michele van Vugt
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Institute for Infection and immunity, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Stephan P Keijmel
- Department of Internal Medicine and Radboud Center for Infectious Diseases, Radboud University Medical Center, 6500 HB Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Pythia Nieuwkerk
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Institute for Infection and immunity, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Chantal P Rovers
- Department of Internal Medicine and Radboud Center for Infectious Diseases, Radboud University Medical Center, 6500 HB Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Hans Knoop
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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10
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Dotel R, Bowen AC, Xie O, Gibney KB, Carapetis JR, Davis JS, Tong SYC. Is it time for clinical trials of invasive group A and groups C and G Streptococcus infections? Clin Microbiol Infect 2023; 29:1205-1207. [PMID: 37244467 DOI: 10.1016/j.cmi.2023.05.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2023] [Revised: 05/18/2023] [Accepted: 05/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Ravindra Dotel
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Blacktown Hospital, Sydney, Australia.
| | - Asha C Bowen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Perth Children's Hospital, Perth, Australia; Wesfarmers Centre for Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Ouli Xie
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Monash Infectious Diseases, Monash Health, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, At the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jonathan R Carapetis
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Perth Children's Hospital, Perth, Australia; Wesfarmers Centre for Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Joshua S Davis
- School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Steven Y C Tong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia; Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, At the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
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11
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Tse WC, Altermatt A, Saich F, Wilkinson AL, Heath K, Young K, Pedrana A, Hill S, Gibbs L, Stoové M, Gibney KB, Hellard M. I know what you did last summer: a cross-sectional study of personal COVID-19 risk reduction strategies used by Victorian adults, December 2021-January 2022. Aust N Z J Public Health 2023; 47:100068. [PMID: 37271059 DOI: 10.1016/j.anzjph.2023.100068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2022] [Revised: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/06/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We describe COVID-19 risk reduction strategies adopted by Victorian adults during December 2021-January 2022, a period of high COVID-19 infection and limited government mandated public health measures. METHODS In February 2022, participants of a Victorian-based cohort study (Optimise) completed a cross-sectional survey on risk reduction behaviours during December 2021-January 2022. Regression modelling estimated the association between risk reduction and demographics. RESULTS A total of 556 participants were included (median age 47 years; 75% women; 82% in metropolitan Melbourne). Two-thirds (61%) adopted at least one risk reduction behaviour, with uptake highest among younger participants (18-34 years; adjusted relative risk (aRR): 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.41) and those with a chronic health condition (aRR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.35). CONCLUSIONS Participants adopted their own COVID-19 risk reduction strategies in a setting of limited government restrictions, with young people more likely to adopt a risk reduction strategy that did not limit social mobility. IMPLICATION FOR PUBLIC HEALTH A public health response to COVID-19 that focusses on promoting personal risk reduction behaviours, as opposed to mandated restrictions, could be enhanced by disseminating information on and increasing availability of effective risk reduction strategies tailored to segments of the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wai Chung Tse
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
| | - Aimée Altermatt
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Freya Saich
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Anna L Wilkinson
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Katherine Heath
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Kathryn Young
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Alisa Pedrana
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Sophie Hill
- Centre for Health Communication and Participation, La Trobe University, Victoria, 3086, Australia
| | - Lisa Gibbs
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
| | - Mark Stoové
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne, At the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, VIC, 3000, Australia
| | - Margaret Hellard
- Disease Elimination Program, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia
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12
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Betts JM, Weinman AL, Oliver J, Braddick M, Huang S, Nguyen M, Miller A, Tong SYC, Gibney KB. Influenza-associated hospitalisation and mortality rates among global Indigenous populations; a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLOS Glob Public Health 2023; 3:e0001294. [PMID: 37053124 PMCID: PMC10101428 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001294] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2022] [Accepted: 03/07/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND More than 50 million influenza infections and over 100,000 deaths from influenza occur annually. While Indigenous populations experience an inequitable influenza burden, the magnitude of this inequity has not previously been estimated on a global scale. This study compared rates of influenza-associated hospitalisation and mortality between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations globally. METHODS A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted including literature published prior to 13 July 2021. Eligible articles either reported a rate ratio (RR) comparing laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalisation and/or mortality between an Indigenous population and a corresponding benchmark population, or reported sufficient information for this to be calculated using publicly available data. Findings were reported by country/region and pooled by country and period (pandemic/seasonal) when multiple studies were available using a random-effects model. The I2 statistic assessed variability between studies. RESULTS Thirty-six studies (moderate/high quality) were included; all from high or high-middle income countries. The pooled influenza-associated hospitalisation RR (HRR) for indigenous compared to benchmark populations was 5·7 (95% CI: 2·7-12·0) for Canada, 5·2 (2.9-9.3) for New Zealand, and 5.2 (4.2-6.4) for Australia. Of the Australian studies, the pooled HRR for seasonal influenza was 3.1 (2·7-3·5) and for pandemic influenza was 6·2 (5·1-7·5). Heterogeneity was slightly higher among studies of pandemic influenza than seasonal influenza. The pooled mortality RR was 4.1 (3·0-5.7) in Australia and 3·3 (2.7-4.1) in the United States. CONCLUSIONS Ethnic inequities in severe influenza persist and must be addressed by reducing disparities in the underlying determinants of health. Influenza surveillance systems worldwide should include Indigenous status to determine the extent of the disease burden among Indigenous populations. Ethnic inequities in pandemic influenza illustrate the need to prioritise Indigenous populations in pandemic response plans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliana M. Betts
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Aaron L. Weinman
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jane Oliver
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Maxwell Braddick
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Disease Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Siyu Huang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Matthew Nguyen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Adrian Miller
- Centre for Indigenous Health Equity Research, Central Queensland University, Townsville, Australia
| | - Steven Y. C. Tong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Disease Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Disease Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
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13
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Gulliver EL, Adams V, Marcelino VR, Gould J, Rutten EL, Powell DR, Young RB, D'Adamo GL, Hemphill J, Solari SM, Revitt-Mills SA, Munn S, Jirapanjawat T, Greening C, Boer JC, Flanagan KL, Kaldhusdal M, Plebanski M, Gibney KB, Moore RJ, Rood JI, Forster SC. Extensive genome analysis identifies novel plasmid families in Clostridium perfringens. Microb Genom 2023; 9. [PMID: 37079454 DOI: 10.1099/mgen.0.000995] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Globally, the anaerobic bacterium Clostridium perfringens causes severe disease in a wide array of hosts; however, C. perfringens strains are also carried asymptomatically. Accessory genes are responsible for much of the observed phenotypic variation and virulence within this species, with toxins frequently encoded on conjugative plasmids and many isolates carrying up to 10 plasmids. Despite this unusual biology, current genomic analyses have largely excluded isolates from healthy hosts or environmental sources. Accessory genomes, including plasmids, also have often been excluded from broader scale phylogenetic investigations. Here we interrogate a comprehensive collection of 464 C. perfringens genomes and identify the first putative non-conjugative enterotoxin (CPE)-encoding plasmids and a putative novel conjugative locus (Bcp) with sequence similarity to a locus reported from Clostridium botulinum. We sequenced and archived 102 new C. perfringens genomes, including those from rarely sequenced toxinotype B, C, D and E isolates. Long-read sequencing of 11 C. perfringens strains representing all toxinotypes (A-G) identified 55 plasmids from nine distinct plasmid groups. Interrogation of the 464 genomes in this collection identified 1045 plasmid-like contigs from the nine plasmid families, with a wide distribution across the C. perfringens isolates. Plasmids and plasmid diversity play an essential role in C. perfringens pathogenicity and broader biology. We have expanded the C. perfringens genome collection to include temporal, spatial and phenotypically diverse isolates including those carried asymptomatically in the gastrointestinal microbiome. This analysis has resulted in the identification of novel C. perfringens plasmids whilst providing a comprehensive understanding of species diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily L Gulliver
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Vicki Adams
- Department of Microbiology, Infection Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Vanessa Rossetto Marcelino
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Jodee Gould
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Emily L Rutten
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - David R Powell
- Monash Bioinformatics Platform, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Remy B Young
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Gemma L D'Adamo
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Jamia Hemphill
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Sean M Solari
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Sarah A Revitt-Mills
- Department of Microbiology, Infection Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Samantha Munn
- Department of Microbiology, Infection Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Thanavit Jirapanjawat
- Department of Microbiology, Infection Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
- Centre to Impact AMR, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Chris Greening
- Department of Microbiology, Infection Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
- Centre to Impact AMR, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Jennifer C Boer
- School of Health and Biomedical Sciences, RMIT University, Bundoora, VIC, 3083, Australia
| | - Katie L Flanagan
- School of Health and Biomedical Sciences, RMIT University, Bundoora, VIC, 3083, Australia
- Tasmanian Vaccine Trial Centre, Clifford Craig Foundation, Launceston General Hospital, Launceston, TAS, 7250, Australia
- School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Tasmania, Launceston, TAS, Australia
| | - Magne Kaldhusdal
- Department of Food Safety and Animal Health, Norwegian Veterinary Institute, PO Box 750, Sentrum, 0106, Oslo, Norway
| | - Magdalena Plebanski
- School of Health and Biomedical Sciences, RMIT University, Bundoora, VIC, 3083, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Robert J Moore
- School of Science, RMIT University, Bundoora West Campus, Bundoora, VIC, Australia
| | - Julian I Rood
- Department of Microbiology, Infection Program, Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Samuel C Forster
- Centre of Innate Immunity and Infectious Disease, Hudson Institute of Medical Research, Clayton, VIC, 3168, Australia
- Department of Molecular and Translational Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
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14
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Altermatt A, Heath K, Saich F, Lee Wilkinson A, Scott N, Sacks-Davis R, Young K, Stoové M, Gibney KB, Hellard M. Estimating the proportion of Victorians infected with COVID-19 during the Omicron BA.1 epidemic wave of January 2022 in Australia. Aust N Z J Public Health 2023; 47:100007. [PMID: 36706552 PMCID: PMC9874236 DOI: 10.1016/j.anzjph.2022.100007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2022] [Revised: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/30/2022] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To estimate the proportion of Victorians infected with COVID-19 in January 2022. METHODS Between 11-19 February 2022 we conducted a nested cross-sectional survey on experiences of COVID-19 testing, symptoms, test outcome and barriers to testing during January 2022 in Victoria, Australia. Respondents were participants of the Optimise Study, a prospective cohort of adults considered at increased risk of COVID-19 or the unintended consequences of COVID-19-related interventions. RESULTS Of the 577 participants, 78 (14%) reported testing positive to COVID-19, 240 (42%) did not test in January 2022 and 91 of those who did not test (38%) reported COVID-19-like symptoms. Using two different definitions of symptoms, we calculated symptomatic (27% and 39%) and asymptomatic (4% and 11%) test positivity. We extrapolated these positivity rates to participants who did not test and estimated 19-22% of respondents may have had COVID-19 infection in January 2022. CONCLUSION The proportion of Victorians infected with COVID-19 in January 2022 was likely considerably higher than officially reported numbers. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH Our estimate is approximately double the COVID-19 case numbers obtained from official case reporting. This highlights a major limitation of diagnosis data that must be considered when preparing for future waves of infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aimée Altermatt
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Katherine Heath
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Freya Saich
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Anna Lee Wilkinson
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia,School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Nick Scott
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia,School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Rachel Sacks-Davis
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia,School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Kathryn Young
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Mark Stoové
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia,School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne, At the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Victoria, 3000, Australia
| | - Margaret Hellard
- Disease Elimination, Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia,School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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15
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Gibbs L, Thomas AJ, Coelho A, Al-Qassas A, Block K, Meagher N, Eisa L, Fletcher-Lartey S, Ke T, Kerr P, Kwong EJL, MacDougall C, Malith D, Marinkovic Chavez K, Osborne D, Price DJ, Shearer F, Stoove M, Young K, Zhang Y, Gibney KB, Hellard M. Inclusion of Cultural and Linguistic Diversity in COVID-19 Public Health Research: Research Design Adaptations to Seek Different Perspectives in Victoria, Australia. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2023; 20:2320. [PMID: 36767686 PMCID: PMC9916203 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20032320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2022] [Revised: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/21/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Participation of people from culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities in public health research is often limited by challenges with recruitment, retention and second-language data collection. Consequently, people from CALD communities are at risk of their needs being marginalised in public health interventions. This paper presents intrinsic case analyses of two studies which were adapted to increase the cultural competence of research processes. Both cases were part of the Optimise study, a major mixed methods research study in Australia which provided evidence to inform the Victorian state government's decision-making about COVID-19 public health measures. Case study 1 involved the core Optimise longitudinal cohort study and Case study 2 was the CARE Victorian representative survey, an Optimise sub-study. Both case studies engaged cultural advisors and bilingual staff to adjust the survey measures and research processes to suit target CALD communities. Reflexive processes provided insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the inclusive strategies. Selected survey results are provided, demonstrating variation across CALD communities and in comparison to participants who reported speaking English at home. While in most cases a gradient of disadvantage was evident for CALD communities, some patterns were unexpected. The case studies demonstrate the challenge and value of investing in culturally competent research processes to ensure research guiding policy captures a spectrum of experiences and perspectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Gibbs
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia
| | | | | | | | - Karen Block
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia
| | - Niamh Meagher
- Peter Doherty Institute for Infection & Immunity, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
| | - Limya Eisa
- The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | | | - Tianhui Ke
- The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Phoebe Kerr
- The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Edwin Jit Leung Kwong
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia
| | - Colin MacDougall
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia
| | - Deng Malith
- The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Katitza Marinkovic Chavez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia
| | | | - David J. Price
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia
- Peter Doherty Institute for Infection & Immunity, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
| | - Freya Shearer
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia
| | - Mark Stoove
- The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
- Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia
| | - Kathryn Young
- The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Yanqin Zhang
- The Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- Peter Doherty Institute for Infection & Immunity, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
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16
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Goldsmith JJ, Campbell PT, Villanueva-Cabezas JP, Chisholm RH, McKinnon M, Gurruwiwi GG, Dhurrkay RG, Dockery AM, Geard N, Tong SYC, McVernon J, Gibney KB. Capturing Household Structure and Mobility within and between Remote Aboriginal Communities in Northern Australia Using Longitudinal Data: A Pilot Study. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2022; 19:12002. [PMID: 36231301 PMCID: PMC9566160 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191912002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2022] [Revised: 09/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Cultural practices and development level can influence a population's household structures and mixing patterns. Within some populations, households can be organized across multiple dwellings. This likely affects the spread of infectious disease through these communities; however, current demographic data collection tools do not record these data. METHODS Between June and October 2018, the Contact And Mobility Patterns in remote Aboriginal Australian communities (CAMP-remote) pilot study recruited Aboriginal mothers with infants in a remote northern Australian community to complete a monthly iPad-based contact survey. RESULTS Thirteen mother-infant pairs (participants) completed 69 study visits between recruitment and the end of May 2019. Participants reported they and their other children slept in 28 dwellings during the study. The median dwelling occupancy, defined as people sleeping in the same dwelling on the previous night, was ten (range: 3.5-25). Participants who completed at least three responses (n = 8) slept in a median of three dwellings (range: 2-9). Each month, a median of 28% (range: 0-63%) of the participants travelled out of the community. Including these data in disease transmission models amplified estimates of infectious disease spread in the study community, compared to models parameterized using census data. CONCLUSIONS The lack of data on mixing patterns in populations where households can be organized across dwellings may impact the accuracy of infectious disease models for these communities and the efficacy of public health actions they inform.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessie J. Goldsmith
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
| | - Patricia T. Campbell
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Juan Pablo Villanueva-Cabezas
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
| | - Rebecca H. Chisholm
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
- Department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC 3086, Australia
| | - Melita McKinnon
- Wellbeing and Preventable Chronic Diseases Division, Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT 0811, Australia
| | - George G. Gurruwiwi
- Wellbeing and Preventable Chronic Diseases Division, Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT 0811, Australia
| | - Roslyn G. Dhurrkay
- Wellbeing and Preventable Chronic Diseases Division, Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT 0811, Australia
| | - Alfred M. Dockery
- Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, Curtin University, Bentley, WA 6102, Australia
| | - Nicholas Geard
- School of Computing and Information Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Steven Y. C. Tong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Parkville, VIC 3050, Australia
| | - Jodie McVernon
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Parkville, VIC 3050, Australia
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17
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Blasdell KR, McNamara B, O’Brien DP, Tachedjian M, Boyd V, Dunn M, Mee PT, Clayton S, Gaburro J, Smith I, Gibney KB, Tay EL, Hobbs EC, Waidyatillake N, Lynch SE, Stinear TP, Athan E. Environmental risk factors associated with the presence of Mycobacterium ulcerans in Victoria, Australia. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0274627. [PMID: 36099259 PMCID: PMC9469944 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
In recent years reported cases of Buruli ulcer, caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, have increased substantially in Victoria, Australia, with the epidemic also expanding geographically. To develop an understanding of how M. ulcerans circulates in the environment and transmits to humans we analyzed environmental samples collected from 115 properties of recent Buruli ulcer cases and from 115 postcode-matched control properties, for the presence of M. ulcerans. Environmental factors associated with increased odds of M. ulcerans presence at a property included certain native plant species and native vegetation in general, more alkaline soil, lower altitude, the presence of common ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) and overhead powerlines. However, only overhead powerlines and the absence of the native plant Melaleuca lanceolata were associated with Buruli ulcer case properties. Samples positive for M. ulcerans were more likely to be found at case properties and were associated with detections of M. ulcerans in ringtail possum feces, supporting the hypothesis that M. ulcerans is zoonotic, with ringtail possums the strongest reservoir host candidate. However, the disparity in environmental risk factors associated with M. ulcerans positive properties versus case properties indicates the involvement of human behavior or the influence of other environmental factors in disease acquisition that requires further study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kim R. Blasdell
- Health and Biosecurity, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Bridgette McNamara
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Barwon Health, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
- Centre of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Daniel P. O’Brien
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Barwon Health, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Health, Victorian State Government, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Mary Tachedjian
- Health and Biosecurity, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Victoria Boyd
- Health and Biosecurity, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Michael Dunn
- Health and Biosecurity, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Peter T. Mee
- Agriculture Victoria Research, AgriBio Centre for AgriBiosciences, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Simone Clayton
- Health and Biosecurity, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Julie Gaburro
- Health and Biosecurity, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ina Smith
- Health and Biosecurity, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ee Laine Tay
- Department of Health, Victorian State Government, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Emma C. Hobbs
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Stacey E. Lynch
- Agriculture Victoria Research, AgriBio Centre for AgriBiosciences, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia
| | - Timothy P. Stinear
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Eugene Athan
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Barwon Health, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
- Geelong Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Geelong, Victoria, Australia
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18
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Thomson TN, Campbell PT, Gibney KB. The epidemiology of invasive group A streptococcal disease in Victoria, 2007-2017: an analysis of linked datasets. Aust N Z J Public Health 2022; 46:878-883. [PMID: 35980150 DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.13290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2021] [Revised: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To describe the incidence and severity of invasive group A streptococcal disease (iGAS) in Victoria, Australia. METHODS Retrospective analysis of iGAS cases identified in linked datasets, 2007-2017: laboratory data from the Victorian Hospital Pathogen Surveillance Scheme; hospitalisation data from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset; and deaths reported by the Australian Coordinating Registry. RESULTS There were 1,369 confirmed and 610 probable cases of iGAS identified from 2007 to 2017 in Victoria, Australia. The median annual incidence was 3.1 (range 2.4-5.2) per 100,000 population. The incidence was highest in 2017, with 5.2 (95%CI: 4.6-5.8) cases per 100,000 population. The median length of stay in hospital was 10 days, with 33.1% (578/1,744) of cases admitted to the intensive care unit, of whom 49.5% (286/578) were mechanically ventilated. The case fatality rate was 5.6% (110/1,979), reaching 13.5% (51/378) among those aged 75 years or older. CONCLUSIONS There was an increased incidence of iGAS in 2017 in Victoria, with substantial healthcare utilisation and a high case fatality rate among older Victorians. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH These data support mandatory notification of iGAS, which will enable better characterisation of the disease, rapid identification of changes in epidemiology and targeted public health responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tilda Nell Thomson
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Victoria
| | - Patricia Therese Campbell
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne, at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Victoria
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- The University of Melbourne and The Royal Melbourne Hospital, at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Victoria
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19
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Schnall J, Oliver G, Braat S, Macdonell R, Gibney KB, Kanaan RA. Characterising DSCATT: A case series of Australian patients with debilitating symptom complexes attributed to ticks. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 2022; 56:974-984. [PMID: 34465249 DOI: 10.1177/00048674211043788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES(S) To characterise the clinical profile, aetiology and treatment responsiveness of 'Australian Lyme', or Debilitating Symptom Complexes Attributed to Ticks. METHODS Single-centre retrospective case analysis of patients referred to the Infectious Diseases Unit at Austin Health - a tertiary health service in Heidelberg, Australia - between 2014 and 2020 for investigation and treatment of suspected Debilitating Symptom Complexes Attributed to Ticks. Patients were included if they had debilitating symptoms suggested by either themselves or the referring clinician as being attributed to ticks. RESULTS Twenty-nine Debilitating Symptom Complexes Attributed to Ticks cases were included in the analysis. Other than Lyme disease (83%), the most common prior medical diagnoses were Epstein-Barr virus (38%), chronic fatigue syndrome (28%) and fibromyalgia (24%). Prior histories of anxiety (48%) and depression (41%) were common. The most frequently reported symptoms included fatigue (83%), headache (72%) and arthralgia (69%). National Association of Testing Authorities/Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia-accredited serology was not diagnostic of acute infective causes, including Lyme disease, in any patient. Of 25 cases with available data, 23 (92%) had previously been prescribed antimicrobials, with 53% reporting benefit from them. The most common diagnoses made by our hospital were chronic fatigue syndrome (31%), migraines (28%) and fibromyalgia (21%). Only one patient's symptoms were not accounted for by other diagnoses. CONCLUSION This is the first case series of patients with Debilitating Symptom Complexes Attributed to Ticks. They had high rates of other medically unexplained syndromes, and no evidence of acute Lyme disease, or any common organic disease process. Debilitating Symptom Complexes Attributed to Ticks remains medically unexplained, and may therefore be due to an as yet unidentified cause, or may be considered a medically unexplained syndrome similar to conditions such as chronic fatigue syndrome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesse Schnall
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, VIC 3084
| | - Georgina Oliver
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, VIC 3084
| | - Sabine Braat
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Australia.,MISCH (Methods and Implementation Support for Clinical Health research platform), Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Australia
| | - Richard Macdonell
- Department of Neurology, University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, VIC 3084
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Department of Infectious Diseases, Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne
| | - Richard A Kanaan
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, VIC 3084
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20
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Staples JE, Gibney KB, Panella AJ, Prince HE, Basile AJ, Laven J, Sejvar JJ, Fischer M. Duration of West Nile Virus Immunoglobulin M Antibodies up to 81 Months Following West Nile Virus Disease Onset. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2022; 106:tpmd211234. [PMID: 35405658 PMCID: PMC9209930 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.21-1234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2021] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) IgM antibodies typically indicate a recent infection. However, WNV IgM antibodies can remain detectable for months to years following illness onset. We found that 23% (11/47) of samples tested with a WNV ELISA and 43% (20/47) of samples tested with WNV microsphere immunoassay (MIA) at 16-19 months following WNV illness onset were positive for IgM antibodies. The proportion of samples testing positive for WNV IgM by ELISA decreased over time, but 5% (2/44) of individuals remained positive at 60-63 months after their acute illness and 4% (2/50) were WNV IgM equivocal at 72-81 months. Testing by MIA showed the same general trend of decreased proportion positive over time though the rates of positivity were higher at most time points compared with the ELISA, including 6% (3/50) of participant's samples identified as IgM positive by MIA at 72-81 months post their acute illness. With the MIA, there also was a high proportion of samples with nonspecific results at each time point; average of 23% across all time points. Clinicians and public health officials should consider these findings along with clinical and epidemiologic data when interpreting WNV IgM antibody test results.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. Erin Staples
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
- Epidemic Intelligence Service Program, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Amanda J. Panella
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Harry E. Prince
- Quest Diagnostics Infectious Disease, Inc., San Juan Capistrano, California
| | - Alison J. Basile
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Janeen Laven
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - James J. Sejvar
- Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Marc Fischer
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado
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21
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Heath K, Altermatt A, Saich F, Pedrana A, Fletcher-Lartey S, Bowring AL, Stoové M, Danchin M, Kaufman J, Gibney KB, Hellard M. Intent to Be Vaccinated against COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10020209. [PMID: 35214668 PMCID: PMC8878999 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10020209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Revised: 01/14/2022] [Accepted: 01/20/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: High vaccine uptake requires strong public support, acceptance, and willingness. Methods: A longitudinal cohort study gathered survey data every four weeks between 1 October 2020 and 9 November 2021 in Victoria, Australia. Data were analysed for 686 participants aged 18 years and older. Results: Vaccine intention in our cohort increased from 60% in October 2020 to 99% in November 2021. Vaccine intention increased in all demographics, but longitudinal trends in vaccine intention differed by age, employment as a healthcare worker, presence of children in the household, and highest qualification attained. Acceptance of vaccine mandates increased from 50% in October 2020 to 71% in November 2021. Acceptance of vaccine mandates increased in all age groups except 18–25 years; acceptance also varied by gender and highest qualification attained. The main reasons for not intending to be vaccinated included safety concerns, including blood clots, and vaccine efficacy. Conclusion: COVID-19 vaccination campaigns should be informed by understanding of the sociodemographic drivers of vaccine acceptance to enable socially and culturally relevant guidance and ensure equitable vaccine coverage. Vaccination policies should be applied judiciously to avoid polarisation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Heath
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
- Correspondence:
| | - Aimée Altermatt
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
| | - Freya Saich
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
| | - Alisa Pedrana
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 533 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Stephanie Fletcher-Lartey
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
| | - Anna L. Bowring
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
| | - Mark Stoové
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 533 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
| | - Margaret Danchin
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia;
- Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, 50 Flemington Road, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia;
- Department General Medicine, The Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia
| | - Jessica Kaufman
- Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, 50 Flemington Road, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia;
- Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Department of Infectious Diseases, Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, 792 Elizabeth Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia;
| | - Margaret Hellard
- Burnet Institute, 85 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia; (A.A.); (F.S.); (A.P.); (S.F.-L.); (A.L.B.); (M.S.); (M.H.)
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 533 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
- Doherty Institute and School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Alfred Hospital, 55 Commercial Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia
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22
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Kuut TA, Müller F, Aldenkamp A, Assmann-Schuilwerve E, Braamse A, Geerlings SE, Gibney KB, Kanaan RAA, Nieuwkerk P, Olde Hartman TC, Pauëlsen D, Prins M, Slieker K, Van Vugt M, Bleeker-Rovers CP, Keijmel SP, Knoop H. A randomised controlled trial testing the efficacy of Fit after COVID, a cognitive behavioural therapy targeting severe post-infectious fatigue following COVID-19 (ReCOVer): study protocol. Trials 2021; 22:867. [PMID: 34857010 PMCID: PMC8637041 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-021-05569-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2021] [Accepted: 08/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) results in debilitating long-term symptoms, often referred to as Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection (PASC), in a substantial subgroup of patients. One of the most prevalent symptoms following COVID-19 is severe fatigue. Prompt delivery of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), an evidence-based treatment that has shown benefit in reducing severe fatigue in other conditions, may reduce post-COVID-19 fatigue. Based on an existing CBT protocol, a blended intervention of 17 weeks, Fit after COVID, was developed to treat severe fatigue after the acute phase of infection with SARS-CoV-2. METHOD The ReCOVer study is a multicentre 2-arm randomised controlled trial (RCT) to test the efficacy of Fit after COVID on severe post-infectious fatigue. Participants are eligible if they report severe fatigue 3 up to and including 12 months following COVID-19. One hundred and fourteen participants will be randomised to either Fit after COVID or care as usual (ratio 1:1). The primary outcome, the fatigue severity subscale of the Checklist Individual Strength (CIS-fatigue), is assessed in both groups before randomisation (T0), directly post CBT or following care as usual (T1), and at follow-up 6 months after the second assessment (T2). In addition, a long-term follow-up (T3), 12 months after the second assessment, is performed in the CBT group only. The primary objective is to investigate whether CBT will lead to a significantly lower mean fatigue severity score measured with the CIS-fatigue across the first two follow-up assessments (T1 and T2) as compared to care as usual. Secondary objectives are to determine the proportion of participants no longer being severely fatigued (operationalised in different ways) at T1 and T2 and to investigate changes in physical and social functioning, in the number and severity of somatic symptoms and in problems concentrating across T1 and T2. DISCUSSION This is the first trial testing a cognitive behavioural intervention targeting severe fatigue after COVID-19. If Fit after COVID is effective in reducing fatigue severity following COVID-19, this intervention could contribute to alleviating the long-term health consequences of COVID-19 by relieving one of its most prevalent and distressing long-term symptoms. TRIAL REGISTRATION Netherlands Trial Register NL8947 . Registered on 14 October 2020.
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Affiliation(s)
- T A Kuut
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Expert Center for Chronic Fatigue, Department of Medical Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - F Müller
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - A Aldenkamp
- Department of Lung Medicine, Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
| | | | - A Braamse
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - S E Geerlings
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - K B Gibney
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, and Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - R A A Kanaan
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Melbourne, Austin Health, Heidelberg, Australia
| | - P Nieuwkerk
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - T C Olde Hartman
- Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - D Pauëlsen
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - M Prins
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - K Slieker
- Department of Internal Medicine, Bernhoven, Uden, The Netherlands
| | - M Van Vugt
- Division of Internal Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Institute for Infection and Immunity, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - C P Bleeker-Rovers
- Department of Internal Medicine, Radboud university medical center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - S P Keijmel
- Department of Internal Medicine, Radboud university medical center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - H Knoop
- Department of Medical Psychology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Expert Center for Chronic Fatigue, Department of Medical Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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23
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Oliver J, Tosif S, Lee LY, Costa AM, Bartel C, Last K, Clifford V, Daley A, Allard N, Orr C, Nind A, Alexander K, Meagher N, Sait M, Ballard SA, Williams E, Bond K, Williamson DA, Crawford NW, Gibney KB. Adding saliva testing to oropharyngeal and deep nasal swab testing increases PCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 in primary care and children. Med J Aust 2021; 215:273-278. [PMID: 34287935 PMCID: PMC8447377 DOI: 10.5694/mja2.51188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Objective To compare the concordance and acceptability of saliva testing with standard‐of‐care oropharyngeal and bilateral deep nasal swab testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus‐2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) in children and in general practice. Design Prospective multicentre diagnostic validation study. Setting Royal Children’s Hospital, and two general practices (cohealth, West Melbourne; Cirqit Health, Altona North) in Melbourne, July–October 2020. Participants 1050 people who provided paired saliva and oropharyngeal‐nasal swabs for SARS‐CoV‐2 testing. Main outcome measures Numbers of cases in which SARS‐CoV‐2 was detected in either specimen type by real‐time polymerase chain reaction; concordance of results for paired specimens; positive percent agreement (PPA) for virus detection, by specimen type. Results SARS‐CoV‐2 was detected in 54 of 1050 people with assessable specimens (5%), including 19 cases (35%) in which both specimens were positive. The overall PPA was 72% (95% CI, 58–84%) for saliva and 63% (95% CI, 49–76%) for oropharyngeal‐nasal swabs. For the 35 positive specimens from people aged 10 years or more, PPA was 86% (95% CI, 70–95%) for saliva and 63% (95% CI, 45–79%) for oropharyngeal‐nasal swabs. Adding saliva testing to standard‐of‐care oropharyngeal‐nasal swab testing increased overall case detection by 59% (95% CI, 29–95%). Providing saliva was preferred to an oropharyngeal‐nasal swab by most participants (75%), including 141 of 153 children under 10 years of age (92%). Conclusion In children over 10 years of age and adults, saliva testing alone may be suitable for SARS‐CoV‐2 detection, while for children under 10, saliva testing may be suitable as an adjunct to oropharyngeal‐nasal swab testing for increasing case detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane Oliver
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Vanessa Clifford
- The Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC.,Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Andrew Daley
- The Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC.,The Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Nicole Allard
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC.,cohealth, Melbourne, VIC
| | | | | | - Karyn Alexander
- Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC.,Cirqit Health, Melbourne, VIC
| | | | - Michelle Sait
- Public Health Laboratory, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Susan A Ballard
- Public Health Laboratory, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
| | | | - Katherine Bond
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Melbourne Health, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Deborah A Williamson
- Public Health Laboratory, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC.,Melbourne Health, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Nigel W Crawford
- Surveillance of Adverse Events Following Vaccination in the Community (SAEFVIC), Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC.,Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC
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24
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Oliver J, Larsen S, Stinear TP, Hoffmann A, Crouch S, Gibney KB. Reducing mosquito-borne disease transmission to humans: A systematic review of cluster randomised controlled studies that assess interventions other than non-targeted insecticide. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009601. [PMID: 34324501 PMCID: PMC8354450 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Revised: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 06/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mosquito control interventions are widely used to reduce mosquito-borne diseases. It is unclear what combination of interventions are most effective in reducing human disease. A novel intervention study for Buruli ulcer targeting mosquito vectors was proposed for a Buruli ulcer-endemic area of Victoria, Australia. The local community expressed a preference for avoiding widespread residual spraying of pyrethroids. To inform the design of a future cluster randomised control study (cRCT) for Buruli ulcer prevention in Victoria, we conducted a systematic literature review. AIMS The aim was to describe cRCT designs which investigated interventions other than non-targeted insecticide for reducing mosquito-borne disease transmission, and comment on the strengths and weaknesses of these study designs. METHODS Five medical research databases were searched for eligible literature from the earliest available sources up to 5 July 2019 (Medline, Embase, Web of Science, EBM Reviews, CAB Direct). Reference lists of identified studies were hand searched. Eligible studies were cRCTs using targeted chemical or biological mosquito control interventions, or mosquito breeding source reduction, with the occurrence of mosquito-borne disease as an outcome. RESULTS Eight eligible cRCTs, conducted between 1994-2013 were identified in a variety of settings in the Americas and Asia. Interventions to reduce dengue transmission were mass adult trapping and source reduction. Interventions to reduce malaria transmission were largescale larvicide administration and (topical and spatial) repellent use. Three studies showed the intervention was associated with statistically significant reductions in the disease of interest and entomological indicators. High community engagement with the intervention were common to all three. In two studies, large buffer zones reduced contamination between study arms. Heterogeneity was reduced through increasing study cluster numbers, cluster matching and randomisation. CONCLUSION High community engagement is vital for a cRCT reducing mosquito-borne disease with a mosquito control intervention. These findings support a mosquito breeding source reduction intervention for Aedes control in a future study of Buruli ulcer prevention if local communities are supportive and very engaged. Regular administration of larvicide to sites unsuited to source reduction may supplement the intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane Oliver
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Stuart Larsen
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Tim P. Stinear
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Ary Hoffmann
- Pest and Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Bio21 Institute and the School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Simon Crouch
- Department of Health, Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Department of Infectious Diseases, Melbourne, Australia
- Melbourne Health,Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Melbourne, Australia
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25
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Gibney KB, MacLachlan J, Coutts R, Higgins N, Strachan J. Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Higher Among People Notified With Markers of Hepatitis C Virus Infection: Population-based Surveillance in Victoria, Australia, 2001-2017. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 72:e319-e325. [PMID: 32750118 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2020] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Worse outcomes from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) have been reported among those coinfected with hepatitis C. We aimed to establish if IPD notification rates are higher among people notified with markers of hepatitis C virus infection than the general population. METHODS IPD cases notified in Victoria, Australia, from July 2001-December 2017 were linked with hepatitis C cases (diagnosed by serology or PCR testing) notified from January 1991-December 2017. IPD incidence was calculated using population data and the estimated number of Victorians with hepatitis C. RESULTS From July 2001-December 2017, 6407 IPD cases were notified. Hepatitis C infection was notified in 342 (5.3%) of IPD cases overall, and 24.4% among IPD cases aged 45-49 years. Among IPD cases also notified with hepatitis C, 55.3% were infected with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes and 82.8% with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine serotypes. Compared with IPD cases without hepatitis C, IPD cases also notified with hepatitis C were younger (mean age, 45.7 vs 49.4 years; P = .011) and more often male (65.5% vs 55.5%, P < .001). Annual IPD notification incidence was 6.8/100 000 among people without hepatitis C and 39.4/100 000 among people with hepatitis C (IRR, 5.8; 95% CI, 5.2-6.4; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS IPD notification incidence was 5 times higher among people notified with markers of hepatitis C than the general population. Pneumococcal vaccination should be offered to people with markers of hepatitis C virus infection. To facilitate appropriate treatment, young and middle-aged adults with IPD should be tested for hepatitis C.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Australia.,The Peter Doherty Institute of Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jennifer MacLachlan
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Royal Melbourne Hospital, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Rachel Coutts
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Nasra Higgins
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Janet Strachan
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Australia
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26
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Koolhof IS, Firestone SM, Bettiol S, Charleston M, Gibney KB, Neville PJ, Jardine A, Carver S. Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009252. [PMID: 33690616 PMCID: PMC7978384 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Revised: 03/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model's ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iain S. Koolhof
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Simon M. Firestone
- Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Silvana Bettiol
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Michael Charleston
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Katherine B. Gibney
- Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Peter J. Neville
- Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Health, Western Australia, Environmental Health Directorate, Public and Aboriginal Health Division, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Andrew Jardine
- Department of Health, Western Australia, Environmental Health Directorate, Public and Aboriginal Health Division, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Scott Carver
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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27
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Muhi S, Tayler N, Hoang T, Ballard SA, Graham M, Rojek A, Kwong JC, Trubiano JA, Smibert O, Drewett G, James F, Gardiner E, Chea S, Isles N, Sait M, Pasricha S, Taiaroa G, McAuley J, Williams E, Gibney KB, Stinear TP, Bond K, Lewin SR, Putland M, Howden BP, Williamson DA. Multi-site assessment of rapid, point-of-care antigen testing for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a low-prevalence setting: A validation and implementation study. Lancet Reg Health West Pac 2021; 9:100115. [PMID: 33937887 PMCID: PMC8076656 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Revised: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 02/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Background In Australia, COVID-19 diagnosis relies on RT-PCR testing which is relatively costly and time-consuming. To date, few studies have assessed the performance and implementation of rapid antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 testing in a setting with a low prevalence of COVID-19 infections, such as Australia. Methods This study recruited participants presenting for COVID-19 testing at three Melbourne metropolitan hospitals during a period of low COVID-19 prevalence. The Abbott PanBioTM COVID-19 Ag point-of-care test was performed alongside RT-PCR. In addition, participants with COVID-19 notified to the Victorian Government were invited to provide additional swabs to aid validation. Implementation challenges were also documented. Findings The specificity of the Abbott PanBioTM COVID-19 Ag test was 99.96% (95% CI 99.73 - 100%). Sensitivity amongst participants with RT-PCR-confirmed infection was dependent upon the duration of symptoms reported, ranging from 77.3% (duration 1 to 33 days) to 100% in those within seven days of symptom onset. A range of implementation challenges were identified which may inform future COVID-19 testing strategies in a low prevalence setting. Interpretation Given the high specificity, antigen-based tests may be most useful in rapidly triaging public health and hospital resources while expediting confirmatory RT-PCR testing. Considering the limitations in test sensitivity and the potential for rapid transmission in susceptible populations, particularly in hospital settings, careful consideration is required for implementation of antigen testing in a low prevalence setting. Funding This work was funded by the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services. The funder was not involved in data analysis or manuscript preparation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Muhi
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.,Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Nick Tayler
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Tuyet Hoang
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Susan A Ballard
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Maryza Graham
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Department of Microbiology, Monash Health, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Amanda Rojek
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jason C Kwong
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Jason A Trubiano
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Olivia Smibert
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - George Drewett
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Fiona James
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Emma Gardiner
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Socheata Chea
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Nicole Isles
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Michelle Sait
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Shivani Pasricha
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - George Taiaroa
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Julie McAuley
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Eloise Williams
- Department of Microbiology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infectious Diseases and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Timothy P Stinear
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia
| | - Katherine Bond
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Department of Microbiology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Sharon R Lewin
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infectious Diseases and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Hospital and Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Mark Putland
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Benjamin P Howden
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Deborah A Williamson
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia.,Department of Microbiology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
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28
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Gibney KB, Attwood LO, Nicholson S, Tran T, Druce J, Healy J, Strachan J, Franklin L, Hall R, Cross GB. Emergence of Attenuated Measles Illness Among IgG-positive/IgM-negative Measles Cases: Victoria, Australia, 2008-2017. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 70:1060-1067. [PMID: 31056637 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2019] [Accepted: 04/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Waning measles immunity among vaccinated individuals may result in an attenuated illness. This study compares the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory profile of measles cases with waning immunity with other measles cases. METHODS Polymerase chain reaction-positive (+) measles cases notified to Victoria's Department of Health and Human Services from 2008 to 2017 with immunoglobulin (Ig) M and IgG tested at diagnosis were classified according to serology at diagnosis: IgG negative (-) (nonimmune), IgM+/IgG+ (indeterminate), or IgM-/IgG+ (waning immunity). RESULTS Between 2008 and 2017, 297 measles cases were notified, of whom 190 (64%) were included; 151 of 190 (79%) were nonimmune at diagnosis, 26 (14%) were indeterminate, and 13 (7%) had waning immunity. Between 2008-2013 and 2014-2017, the proportion of cases with waning immunity increased from 0 of 87 (0%) to 13 of 103 (13%) (P < .001) and the diagnostic sensitivity of initial IgM fell from 93% to 81% (P = .012), respectively. Seven (54%) waning immunity cases reported receiving measles-containing vaccines; 1 case had 2 documented doses. Compared with nonimmune and indeterminate cases, waning immunity cases were more likely to be male; less likely to report fever, coryza, and cough; and had lower burden of virus (higher cycle threshold values). Waning immunity cases had higher IgG titers than indeterminate cases (mean optical density values, 1.96 vs 0.71; P = .004). Onward transmission from 1 waning immunity case was documented. CONCLUSIONS Waning immunity among measles cases, associated with secondary vaccine failure and modified clinical illness, is emerging in Victoria with transmission potential.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, the University of Melbourne and the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lucy O Attwood
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Suellen Nicholson
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Thomas Tran
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Julian Druce
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Julia Healy
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Janet Strachan
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Lucinda Franklin
- Health Protection Branch, Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Robert Hall
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Gail B Cross
- Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore.,Department of Infectious Diseases, National University Hospital, Singapore
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29
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Betts JM, Tay EL, Johnson PDR, Lavender CJ, Gibney KB, O'Brien DP, Globan M, Tzimourtas N, O'Hara MA, Crouch SR. Buruli ulcer: a new case definition for Victoria. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020; 44. [PMID: 33349204 DOI: 10.33321/cdi.2020.44.93] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Abstract Laboratory-confirmed infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans is currently notifiable to health departments in several jurisdictions. Accurate surveillance is imperative to understanding current and emerging areas of endemicity and to facilitate research into a neglected tropical disease with poorly-understood transmission dynamics. The state of Victoria currently reports some of the highest numbers of M. ulcerans cases in the world each year, with 340 cases notified in 2018 (an incidence of 5.5 per 100,000 population). In May 2019, a group of clinical, laboratory and public health experts met to discuss a new case definition for the surveillance of M. ulcerans disease in Victoria, incorporating clinical and epidemiological elements. The new case definition supports important public health messaging and actions for residents and visitors to popular tourist areas in Victoria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliana M Betts
- Victorian Government Department of Health and Human Services.,School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne
| | - Ee Laine Tay
- Victorian Government Department of Health and Human Services
| | | | - Caroline J Lavender
- Mycobacterium Reference Laboratory, Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory (VIDRL), at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Victoria, 3000, Australia
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Victorian Government Department of Health and Human Services.,Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne.,The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3000, Australia
| | - Daniel P O'Brien
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University Hospital, Geelong.,Department of Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Melbourne
| | - Maria Globan
- Mycobacterium Reference Laboratory, Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory (VIDRL), at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Victoria, 3000, Australia
| | | | - Miriam A O'Hara
- Victorian Government Department of Health and Human Services
| | - Simon R Crouch
- Victorian Government Department of Health and Human Services
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30
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Koolhof IS, Gibney KB, Bettiol S, Charleston M, Wiethoelter A, Arnold AL, Campbell PT, Neville PJ, Aung P, Shiga T, Carver S, Firestone SM. The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia. Epidemics 2019; 30:100377. [PMID: 31735585 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2019] [Revised: 11/04/2019] [Accepted: 11/04/2019] [Indexed: 10/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreak in 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We document similarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria and demonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexity of RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predict RRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak Surveillance System (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iain S Koolhof
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; College of Sciences and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Infectious Diseases, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Silvana Bettiol
- College of Health and Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Michael Charleston
- College of Sciences and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Anke Wiethoelter
- Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Anna-Lena Arnold
- Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Patricia T Campbell
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Peter J Neville
- Victorian Department of Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Department of Health, Western Australia, Public and Aboriginal Health, Environmental Health Directorate, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Phyo Aung
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Tsubasa Shiga
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Scott Carver
- College of Sciences and Engineering, School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Simon M Firestone
- Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Nelson CK, Franklin LJ, Gibney KB. Infectious Disease Notification Practices in Victoria, 2016-17. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019; 43. [PMID: 31426732 DOI: 10.33321/cdi.2019.43.34] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Introduction Infectious disease surveillance in Victoria, Australia is based upon a legislated requirement for doctors and laboratories to notify suspected or diagnosed cases of specific conditions to the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). The department undertakes regular audits of notification practices in Victoria typically every two years. The objective of this particular audit was to describe notification practices in 2016 and 2017, assess the effect of enhanced surveillance programs (ESPs) on Indigenous status data completeness and provide a baseline assessment that can be used to monitor the impact of a recent legislative change to notification requirements for several of the notifiable diseases which came into effect on 1 September 2018. Methods Notified cases reported to DHHS between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2017 which met the confirmed and probable national case definitions were analysed by year, notifier type (doctor-only, laboratory-only, or both) and condition category (urgent versus routine). For three notifiable conditions (gonococcal infection and hepatitis B and hepatitis C of unspecified duration) Indigenous status completeness was compared pre- and post ESP commencement. Results The number of notified cases in Victoria increased 50% from 76,904 in 2016 to 115,318 in 2017 with a 277% increase in notified influenza alone. Almost half of cases were notified by both laboratory and doctor. Indigenous status was more likely to be complete following the introduction of ESPs (relative risk, RR 1.36 (95%CI: 1.33 - 1.40) p>0 .001). Discussion DHHS Victoria experienced a 1.5-fold increase in notified cases in 2017 compared with 2016, which was almost entirely attributable to influenza. For three notifiable conditions which had ESPs introduced during this period, Indigenous status reporting significantly improved. Indigenous identifiers on pathology request forms and data linkage are both interventions which are being considered to improve Indigenous status reporting in Victoria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cassidy K Nelson
- Public Health Medicine (Communicable Disease)
- Health Protection Branch Regulation, Health Protection and Emergency Management Division Department of Health and Human Services
| | - Lucinda J Franklin
- Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance
- Health Protection Branch Regulation, Health Protection and Emergency Management Division Department of Health and Human Services
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance
- Health Protection Branch Regulation, Health Protection and Emergency Management Division Department of Health and Human Services
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Gibney KB, Cheng AC. Reducing the melioidosis burden: public health, chronic disease prevention, or improved case management? Lancet Infect Dis 2019; 19:800-802. [PMID: 31285142 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30303-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2019] [Accepted: 04/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne and the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia; Infectious Diseases Department, Austin Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Allen C Cheng
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology Unit, Alfred Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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Gibney KB, Leder K. Socioeconomic disparities and infection: it's complicated. Lancet Infect Dis 2018; 19:116-117. [PMID: 30558993 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30511-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2018] [Accepted: 08/07/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3000, Australia.
| | - Karin Leder
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
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Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Ellingsen CL, Endres M, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Gnedovskaya EV, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam N, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenkins KJ, Jha RP, Jha V, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam JO, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Lonsdale C, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marczak L, Marks A, Marks GB, Martinez G, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SKS, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Özdemir R, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pujar A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Quistberg DA, Rade KW, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sao Jose BP, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Tessema GA, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang AL, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4178] [Impact Index Per Article: 696.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Ellingsen CL, Endres M, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Gnedovskaya EV, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam N, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenkins KJ, Jha RP, Jha V, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam JO, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Lonsdale C, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marczak L, Marks A, Marks GB, Martinez G, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SKS, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Özdemir R, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pujar A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Quistberg DA, Rade KW, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sao Jose BP, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Tessema GA, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang AL, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vos T, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abebo TA, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Ackerman IN, Adamu AA, Adetokunboh O, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal SK, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Maskari F, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Altirkawi KA, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Andersen HH, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atnafu NT, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokphako EFGA, Awasthi A, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Bannick MS, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Battista B, Battle KE, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bicer BK, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Bulto LNB, Bumgarner BR, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Car M, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Casey DC, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castle CD, Catalá-López F, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Colombara D, Cooper C, Cortesi PA, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Dadi AF, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, de Courten B, De Leo DD, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Dicker D, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dorsey ER, dos Santos KPB, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, El-Khatib ZZ, Ellerstrand J, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fanuel FBB, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold AL, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hailu AD, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Harvey J, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hay RJ, 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Leshargie CT, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Li Kappe D, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim SS, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu A, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, London SJ, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Low N, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Manhertz T, Mantilla A, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McNellan C, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen TC, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistie MA, Mengistu DT, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Mori R, Morozoff 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Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Woolf AD, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zenebe ZM, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1211-1259. [PMID: 28919117 PMCID: PMC5605509 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32154-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4400] [Impact Index Per Article: 628.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2017] [Revised: 07/22/2017] [Accepted: 07/26/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). INTERPRETATION The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adetifa IMO, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akanda AS, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alabed S, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Aldridge RW, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkaabi JM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allam SD, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Assaye AM, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Babalola TK, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Barac A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, 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Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, PA M, Pacella RE, Pakhale S, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petri WA, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Postma MJ, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quintanilla BPA, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao PV, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Rego MAS, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Rivas JC, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salama J, Salamati P, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schulhofer-Wohl S, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Seid AM, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shifa GT, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh PK, Singh A, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skarbek KAK, Skiadaresi E, Sligar A, Smith DL, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stokes MA, Strong M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tadese F, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tesema CL, Tesssema B, Theis A, Thomas N, Thompson AH, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tsilimparis N, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Varakin YY, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Velasquez IM, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vishnu A, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Waid JL, Wakayo T, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Workicho A, Workie SB, Xavier D, Xu G, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang AL, Zhang X, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1084-1150. [PMID: 28919115 PMCID: PMC5605514 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31833-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 488] [Impact Index Per Article: 69.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2017] [Revised: 05/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/07/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. INTERPRETATION Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Gakidou E, Afshin A, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afarideh M, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Ali K, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Ansari H, Antó JM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arian N, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Ballew SH, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Batis C, Battle KE, Baumgarner BR, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhansali A, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Charlson FJ, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Comfort H, Cooper C, Coresh J, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deshpande A, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Duncan S, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fay K, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Goulart AC, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Guo J, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez JCM, Hoek HW, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang H, Ibrahim NM, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jackson MD, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Johansson LRK, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee PH, Lee A, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Levy TS, Li Y, Li Y, Liang X, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu P, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Mullany EC, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pacella RE, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rawaf S, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Room R, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rushton L, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanner M, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Terkawi AS, Tesssema B, Thakur JS, Thamsuwan O, Thankappan KR, Theis AM, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Tollanes MC, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Touvier M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Veerman LJ, Venkateswaran V, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zimsen SRM, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1345-1422. [PMID: 28919119 PMCID: PMC5614451 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32366-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1554] [Impact Index Per Article: 222.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/21/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. FINDINGS Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. INTERPRETATION Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Ansari H, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bannick MS, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Basu S, Battle KE, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bidgoli HH, Bikbov B, Bilal AI, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bizuayehu HM, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bose D, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chew A, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cooper C, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, de Courten B, De Steur H, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Deribe K, deVeber GA, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebel BE, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frank T, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad JJ, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gething PW, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glenn SD, Godwin WW, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, He J, Hendrie D, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Holmberg M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Huang JJ, Huang H, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar Lal D, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Lalloo R, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu S, Lodha R, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marks GB, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Meles KG, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistie MA, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Moses MW, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Oren E, Ortiz A, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Papachristou C, Park EK, Patton GC, Paulson K, Pereira DM, Perico DN, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Reidy P, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rios Blancas MJ, Rivas JC, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Rokni MB, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schneider MT, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith A, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tao T, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tegegne TK, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1423-1459. [PMID: 28916366 PMCID: PMC5603800 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32336-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 190] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/08/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. METHODS We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. FINDINGS Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. INTERPRETATION GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Gibney KB, O'Toole J, Sinclair M, Leder K. Burden of Disease Attributed to Waterborne Transmission of Selected Enteric Pathogens, Australia, 2010. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2017; 96:1400-1403. [PMID: 28719263 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
AbstractUniversal access to safe drinking water is a global priority. To estimate the annual disease burden of campylobacteriosis, nontyphoidal salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, and norovirus attributable to waterborne transmission in Australia, we multiplied regional World Health Organization (WHO) estimates of the proportion of cases attributable to waterborne transmission by estimates of all-source disease burden for each study pathogen. Norovirus was attributed as causing the most waterborne disease cases (479,632; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0-1,111,874) followed by giardiasis and campylobacteriosis. The estimated waterborne disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden for campylobacteriosis (2,004; 95% UI: 0-5,831) was 7-fold greater than other study pathogens and exceeded the WHO guidelines for drinking water quality (1 × 10-6 DALY per person per year) by 90-fold. However, these estimates include disease transmitted via either drinking or recreational water exposure. More precise country-specific and drinking water-specific attribution estimates would better define the health burden from drinking water and inform changes to treatment requirements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Victoria, Australia.,Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia
| | - Joanne O'Toole
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia
| | - Martha Sinclair
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia
| | - Karin Leder
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia
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Barber RM, Fullman N, Sorensen RJD, Bollyky T, McKee M, Nolte E, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abdurahman AA, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abreha GF, Adane K, Adelekan AL, Adetifa IMO, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Agarwal S, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadi A, Ahmed KY, Ahmed MB, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam SS, Alemu ZA, Alene KA, Alexander L, Ali R, Ali SD, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amo-Adjei J, Amoako YA, Anderson BO, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Astatkie A, Atey TM, Atique S, Atnafu NT, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Quintanilla BPA, Awasthi A, Ayele NN, Azzopardi P, Saleem HOB, Bärnighausen T, Bacha U, Badawi A, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barrero LH, Basu S, Baune BT, Baye K, Bayou YT, 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Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fürst T, Faghmous IDA, Fanuel FBB, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Feyissa TR, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Forouzanfar MH, Franklin RC, Frostad J, G/hiwot TT, Gakidou E, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gao W, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael MW, Gebru AA, Gelaye AA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gibney KB, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold A, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Graetz N, Greaves F, Griswold M, Guban PI, Gugnani HC, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Habtewold TD, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Hakuzimana A, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Htet AS, Hu 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Negoi I, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Ningrum DNA, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Osman M, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pain AW, Pakhale S, Castillo EP, Pana A, Papachristou C, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patton GC, Paudel D, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Polinder S, Pond CD, Prakash V, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quistberg DA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rai RK, Ram U, Rana SM, Rankin Z, Rao PV, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Rego MAS, Reitsma M, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMNN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Roba HS, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy NK, Sachdev PS, Sackey BB, Saeedi MY, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Saleh MM, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sandar L, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Seid AM, Seifu CN, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Shamsipour M, Islam SMS, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shi P, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sibamo ELS, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinke AH, Sinshaw AE, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Smith A, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sousa TCM, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Stranges S, Strong M, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sun J, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Taffere GR, Talongwa RT, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Teeple S, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tesema AG, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Tillmann T, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada M, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tura AK, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Van Dingenen R, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wakayo T, Waller SG, Walson JL, Wang H, Wang YP, Watkins DA, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wen CP, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Workicho A, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zenebe ZM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2017; 390:231-266. [PMID: 28528753 PMCID: PMC5528124 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30818-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 307] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2016] [Revised: 02/26/2017] [Accepted: 02/28/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. METHODS We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. INTERPRETATION This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum N, Kyu HH, Zoeckler L, Olsen HE, Thomas K, Pinho C, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Ferrari A, Ghiwot TT, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Liang X, Lopez A, Malta DC, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Patton GC, Salomon J, Sartorius B, Topor-Madry R, Vollset SE, Werdecker A, Whiteford HA, Abate KH, Abbas K, Damtew SA, Ahmed MB, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi R, Alemayohu MA, Altirkawi K, Abajobir AA, Amare AT, Antonio CAT, Arnlov J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Bacha U, Betsu BD, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Baye E, Bedi N, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabe E, Bernal OA, Beyene AS, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Boyce CA, Brazinova A, Hailu GB, Carter A, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Charlson FJ, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Ciobanu LG, Crump J, Dandona R, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, deVeber G, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dubey M, Endries AY, Erskine HE, Faraon EJA, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fernandes JC, Fijabi DO, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Flor LS, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fraser MS, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gebregergs GB, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gidey Yihdego M, Ginawi IAM, Gishu MD, Gizachew TA, Glaser E, Gold AL, Goldberg E, Gona P, Goto A, Gugnani HC, Jiang G, Gupta R, Tesfay FH, Hankey GJ, Havmoeller R, Hijar M, Horino M, Hosgood HD, Hu G, Jacobsen KH, Jakovljevic MB, Jayaraman SP, Jha V, Jibat T, Johnson CO, Jonas J, Kasaeian A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Khalil I, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Ahmad Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim D, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kulikoff R, Kumar GA, Lal DK, Lam HY, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Leung J, Lim SS, Lo LT, Lo WD, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Malekzadeh R, Markos Shifti D, Mazidi M, Meaney PA, Meles KG, Memiah P, Mendoza W, Abera Mengistie M, Mengistu GW, Mensah GA, Miller TR, Mock C, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Mueller U, Nagata C, Naheed A, Nguyen G, Nguyen QL, Nsoesie E, Oh IH, Okoro A, Olusanya JO, Olusanya BO, Ortiz A, Paudel D, Pereira DM, Perico N, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Polanczyk GV, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rai RK, Ram U, Rankin Z, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Kedir Mohammed MS, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Sepanlou SG, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, She J, Shiri R, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Singh J, Silpakit N, Smith A, Sreeramareddy C, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Sufiyan MB, Swaminathan S, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadese F, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Teeple S, Tegegne TK, Temam Shifa G, Terkawi AS, Thomas B, Thomson AJ, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Tran BX, Troeger C, Ukwaja KN, Uthman O, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vlassov VV, Weiderpass E, Weintraub R, Gebrehiwot SW, Westerman R, Williams HC, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Yano Y, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL, Vos T. Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study. JAMA Pediatr 2017; 171:573-592. [PMID: 28384795 PMCID: PMC5540012 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Importance Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. Objective To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. Evidence Review Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. Findings Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. Conclusions and Relevance Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas Kassebaum
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Leo Zoeckler
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Katie Thomas
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christine Pinho
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon-122002, National Capital Region, India
| | - Alize Ferrari
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Yohannes Kinfu
- Centre for Research & Action in Public Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia
| | - Xiaofeng Liang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Alan Lopez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - George C Patton
- Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Joshua Salomon
- Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Benn Sartorius
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South African Medical Research Council/University of KwaZulu-Natal Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Center, Durban, South Africa
| | - Roman Topor-Madry
- Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Center for Disease Burden, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Harvey A Whiteford
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Kaja Abbas
- Department of Population Health, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg
| | | | | | - Nadia Akseer
- The Hospital for Sick Children, Centre for Child Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Carl A T Antonio
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, University of Philippines-Manila, Manila, Philippines
| | - Johan Arnlov
- Department of Medical Services, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Dalarna University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Al Artaman
- University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | | | - Ashish Awasthi
- Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
| | | | - Umar Bacha
- School of Health Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | | | | | | | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Adugnaw Berhane
- College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | | | - Boris Bikbov
- Department of Nephrology Issues of Transplanted Kidney, V. I. Shumakov Federal Research Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs, Moscow, Russia
| | - Cheryl Anne Boyce
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Alexandra Brazinova
- Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Department of Public Health, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | | | - Austin Carter
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
- Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain
| | - Fiona J Charlson
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | | | | | - John Crump
- Departmentà Centre for International Health, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | | | | | - Amare Deribew
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gabrielle deVeber
- The Hospital for Sick Children, Centre for Child Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Daniel Dicker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Eric L Ding
- Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Manisha Dubey
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | | | - Holly E Erskine
- Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Andre Faro
- Federal University of Sergipe, Aracaju, Brazil
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Joao C Fernandes
- Center for Biotechnology and Fine Chemistry, Catholic University of Portugal, Porto, Portugal
| | - Daniel Obadare Fijabi
- Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts
| | | | - Thomas D Fleming
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Luisa Sorio Flor
- Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca/Fiocruz, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Kyle J Foreman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Maya S Fraser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Joseph J Frostad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Katherine B Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Mahari Gidey Yihdego
- Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Department of Public Health, Mizan-Tepi University, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | - Elizabeth Glaser
- Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts
| | - Audra L Gold
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ellen Goldberg
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Harish Chander Gugnani
- Department of Microbiology, Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, St James School of Medicine, the Quarter, Anguilla
| | - Guohong Jiang
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Rajeev Gupta
- Eternal Heart Care Centre and Research Institute, Jaipur, India
| | | | - Graeme J Hankey
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | | | | | - Masako Horino
- Nevada Division of Public and Behavioral Health, Carson City, Nevada
| | | | - Guoqing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Kathryn H Jacobsen
- Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
| | | | | | - Vivekanand Jha
- George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
- University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Tariku Jibat
- Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
- Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Catherine O Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jost Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karlas University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Ibrahim Khalil
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Christian Kieling
- Federal University of Rio Grande de Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
- Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Daniel Kim
- Department of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Niranjan Kissoon
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Luke D Knibbs
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Ai Koyanagi
- Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Kristopher J Krohn
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Rachel Kulikoff
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Hilton Y Lam
- Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Heidi J Larson
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Anders Larsson
- Department of Medical Services, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Janni Leung
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Loon-Tzian Lo
- UnionHealth Associates LLC, St Louis, Missouri
- Alton Mental Health Center, Alton, Illinois
| | - Warren D Lo
- Department of Pediatrics, Department of Neurology, The Ohio State University, Columbus
| | | | - Paulo A Lotufo
- College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
| | | | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Mohsen Mazidi
- Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Key State Laboratory of Molecular Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Peter A Meaney
- Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
| | | | | | | | | | | | - George A Mensah
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
| | - Charles Mock
- School of Medicine, School of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Ulrich Mueller
- Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Chie Nagata
- National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Aliya Naheed
- International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Grant Nguyen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Quyen Le Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Elaine Nsoesie
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - In-Hwan Oh
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | | | | | | | - Deepak Paudel
- UK Department for International Development, Lalitpur, Nepal
| | | | - Norberto Perico
- Istituto di Richerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Bergamo, Italy
| | - Max Petzold
- Health Metrics Unit, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | | | | | - Mostafa Qorbani
- School of Medicine, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contect International Health Consultants, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mahfuzar Rahman
- Research and Evaluation Division, Building Resources Access Communities, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Usha Ram
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | - Zane Rankin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | | | - Luca Ronfani
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Rajesh Sagar
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Ben Schöttker
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Institute of Health Care and Social Sciences, FOM University, Essen, Germany
| | | | - James G Scott
- Centre for Clinical Research, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amira Shaheen
- Department of Public Health, An-Najah University, Nablus, Palestine
| | | | - June She
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Rahman Shiri
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Work Organizations, Disability Program, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ivy Shiue
- Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Naris Silpakit
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alison Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Jeffrey D Stanaway
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dan J Stein
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Caitlyn Steiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Karen M Tabb
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign
| | | | | | - Bineyam Taye
- Department of Biology, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York
| | - Stephanie Teeple
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Bernadette Thomas
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alan J Thomson
- Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Ruoyan Tobe-Gai
- National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | | - Christopher Troeger
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Insitutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- Institute of Population-based Cancer Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | - Ronny Westerman
- Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | | | | | - Rachel Woodbrook
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Yuichiro Yano
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | | | - Seok-Jun Yoon
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, the University of Melbourne and the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Australia.
| | - Robert Hall
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
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Gibney KB, Brahmi A, O'Hara M, Morey R, Franklin L. Challenges in managing a school-based measles outbreak in Melbourne, Australia, 2014. Aust N Z J Public Health 2016; 41:80-84. [PMID: 27960246 DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.12620] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2016] [Revised: 07/01/2016] [Accepted: 08/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To identify barriers to control of a Victorian primary school-based measles outbreak. METHODS Confirmed measles cases notified in Victoria in 2014 were reviewed. Surveillance data, correspondence, and investigation notes for the school-based outbreak were assessed regarding timeliness of diagnosis and notification, and adequacy of school-based immunisation records. RESULTS Twenty-three (31%) of the 75 measles cases notified in 2014 were school-aged (5-18 years); three had documentation of measles vaccination, 17 were unvaccinated, and three had unknown vaccination history. Eight measles outbreaks were identified, including a primary school-based outbreak with ten cases. Of the six unvaccinated pupils in the affected school, five (83%) contracted measles. The proportion of the school's prep students with documented vaccination records, as required by law, ranged from 39% in 2013 to 97% in 2014. CONCLUSIONS Inadequately vaccinated students constitute a vulnerable population and schools are a potential site for measles outbreaks. Inadequate enforcement of school-based immunisation records impact the management and control of school-based measles outbreaks. Implications for Public Health: There is a need to educate clinicians on measles diagnosis and notification, and schools on the requirement to maintain up-to-date vaccination records. School entry is an opportunity to review student vaccination history and offer immunisations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- Health Protection Branch, Department of Health & Human Services Victoria.,The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Victoria
| | - Aicha Brahmi
- Health Protection Branch, Department of Health & Human Services Victoria
| | - Miriam O'Hara
- Health Protection Branch, Department of Health & Human Services Victoria
| | - Rosemary Morey
- Health Protection Branch, Department of Health & Human Services Victoria
| | - Lucinda Franklin
- Health Protection Branch, Department of Health & Human Services Victoria
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45
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Gibney KB, Cheng AC, Hall R, Leder K. Sociodemographic and geographical inequalities in notifiable infectious diseases in Australia: a retrospective analysis of 21 years of national disease surveillance data. Lancet Infect Dis 2016; 17:86-97. [PMID: 27789179 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30309-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2016] [Revised: 07/20/2016] [Accepted: 07/29/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Australia is a high-income country with a well established and largely publicly funded health-care system. However, some populations within Australia have shorter life expectancy and worse health outcomes than others. We explored geographical variations and sociodemographic inequities in infectious disease notifications in Australia. METHODS In this retrospective study, we analysed National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) notifications from 1991-2011 (n=2·4 million). We assessed the effect of socioeconomic disadvantage and remoteness of residence on national notification incidence. We calculated Gini coefficients, adjusted relative risks (aRRs), population attributable fractions (PAFs), and attributable notifications. We reported aRRs for Indigenous status in three jurisdictions with more than 75% completeness of Indigenous status reporting from the Northern Territory, South Australia, and Western Australia. FINDINGS Of the eight most commonly notified diseases from Jan 1, 1991, to Dec 31, 2011, gonococcal infection was the most geographically unequal and campylobacteriosis was the most evenly distributed across the country. Overall, notification incidence was higher in remote and very remote areas than in major cities (aRR 3·37), and higher in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged quintiles compared with less disadvantaged quintiles (aRR 1·15). The PAF for socioeconomic disadvantage was high for blood-borne viral hepatitis but decreased in other disease groups. In 2011, sexually transmitted infections had 11 093 notifications attributed to remoteness and 5597 notifications attributable to socioeconomic disadvantage. Notification incidence was higher in Indigenous than in non-Indigenous Australians (aRR 5·3). INTERPRETATION All diseases had differing geographical concentration and sociodemographic risk. Overall, sociodemographic inequities in infectious disease notifications have decreased, but remain unacceptably high. National communicable disease control is complex, requiring both targeted and population-wide interventions. FUNDING None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, The Alfred Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Allen C Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, The Alfred Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Robert Hall
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, The Alfred Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Karin Leder
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, The Alfred Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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Khalil I, Colombara DV, Forouzanfar MH, Troeger C, Daoud F, Moradi-Lakeh M, Bcheraoui CE, Rao PC, Afshin A, Charara R, Abate KH, Razek MMAE, Abd-Allah F, Abu-Elyazeed R, Kiadaliri AA, Akanda AS, Akseer N, Alam K, Alasfoor D, Ali R, AlMazroa MA, Alomari MA, Al-Raddadi RMS, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Ammar W, Antonio CAT, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Awasthi A, Bacha U, Badawi A, Barac A, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bensenor IM, Betsu BD, Bhutta Z, Abdulhak AAB, Butt ZA, Danawi H, Dubey M, Endries AY, Faghmous IDA, Farid T, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Gibney KB, Ginawi IAM, Gishu MD, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hedayati MT, Hsairi M, Husseini A, Jahanmehr N, Javanbakht M, Jibat T, Jonas JB, Kasaeian A, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khoja TAM, Kinfu Y, Kissoon N, Koyanagi A, Lal A, Latif AAA, Lunevicius R, Razek HMAE, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Misganaw A, Mohamed LAI, Nachega JB, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Peprah EK, Platts-Mills JA, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Riddle M, Roshandel G, Ruhago GM, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sawhney M, Sepanlou SG, Setegn T, Sliwa K, Sreeramareddy CT, Sykes BL, Tavakkoli M, Tedla BA, Terkawi AS, Ukwaja K, Uthman OA, Westerman R, Wubshet M, Yenesew MA, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Rabeeah AAA, Wang H, Naghavi M, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Mokdad AH. Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2016; 95:1319-1329. [PMID: 27928080 PMCID: PMC5154365 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2016] [Accepted: 07/03/2016] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibrahim Khalil
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Danny V Colombara
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | | | - Christopher Troeger
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Farah Daoud
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Department of Community Medicine, Gastrointestinal and Liver Disease Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Charbel El Bcheraoui
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Puja C Rao
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Ashkan Afshin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Raghid Charara
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | | | | | | | | | - Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri
- Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.,Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Orthopedics, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | | | - Nadia Akseer
- University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada
| | - Khurshid Alam
- University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.,University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.,Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Raghib Ali
- University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Mahmoud A Alomari
- Division of Physical Therapy, Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | | | | | - Shirina Alsowaidi
- Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | | | | | | | - Carl Abelardo T Antonio
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, College of Public Health, University of the Philippines, Manila, Philippines
| | - Hamid Asayesh
- Department of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
| | | | - Suleman Atique
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ashish Awasthi
- Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
| | - Umar Bacha
- School of Health Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Alaa Badawi
- Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, Canada
| | | | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | | | - Zulfiqar Bhutta
- Medical Center, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.,The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada
| | | | - Zahid A Butt
- Al Shifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | | | - Manisha Dubey
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | | | - Imad D A Faghmous
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Talha Farid
- University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky
| | - Maryam S Farvid
- Institute for Health Policy, Boston, Massachusetts.,University of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Katherine B Gibney
- Melbourne Health, Parkville, Australia.,Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Melkamu Dedefo Gishu
- Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Harar, Ethiopia.,Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
| | - Harish Chander Gugnani
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Saint James School of Medicine, Anguilla, British West Indies.,Department of Microbiology, Saint James School of Medicine, Anguilla, British West Indies
| | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston, West Virginia
| | - Gessessew Bugssa Hailu
- Kilte Awlaelo Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Ethiopia.,Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | | | - Samer Hamidi
- Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Mohammad T Hedayati
- Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, School of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Mohamed Hsairi
- Department of Epidemiology, Salah Azaiz Institute, Tunis, Tunisia
| | | | - Nader Jahanmehr
- Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Tariku Jibat
- Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands.,Addis Ababa University, Debre Zeit, Ethiopia
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.,Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Yohannes Kinfu
- Centre for Research and Action in Public Health, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia
| | | | - Ai Koyanagi
- Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Deu (CIBERSAM), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Aparna Lal
- Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | | | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.,Aintree University Hospital, National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alem Mehari
- Howard University College of Medicine, Washington, District of Columbia
| | | | - Yohannes Adama Melaku
- School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.,School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | - Ziad A Memish
- College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.,Saudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Awoke Misganaw
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | | | - Jean B Nachega
- Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.,University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Quyen Le Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | | | | | | | | | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan.,Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Saleem M Rana
- Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan.,Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Chhabi L Ranabhat
- Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development, Yonsei University, Wonju, South Korea.,Wonju College of Medicine, Yonsei University, Wonju, South Korea
| | - Sowmya R Rao
- Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Amany H Refaat
- Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt.,Walden University, Minneapolis, Minnesota
| | - Mark Riddle
- Naval Medical Research Center, Silver Spring, Maryland
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran.,Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Juan R Sanabria
- Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.,Department of Surgery and Comprehensive Cancer Center, Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia
| | | | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | | | - Bryan L Sykes
- Departments of Criminology, Law and Society, Sociology, and Public Health, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, California
| | | | - Bemnet Amare Tedla
- James Cook University, Cairns, Australia.,University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | - Abdullah S Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.,Outcomes Research Consortium, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio.,Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
| | - Kingsley Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Olalekan A Uthman
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Ronny Westerman
- German National Cohort Consortium, Heidelberg, Germany.,Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Mamo Wubshet
- Addis Continental Institute of Public Health, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.,University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
| | | | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | | | | | | | - Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Alan D Lopez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.,Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
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Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fraser MS, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Huynh C, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kinfu Y, Kulikoff XR, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Lozano R, Marquez N, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Silpakit N, Sligar A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, VanderZanden A, Vollset SE, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Wolock T, Zoeckler L, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adelekan AL, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Alabed S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amegah AK, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Belay HA, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biroscak BJ, Biryukov S, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Bohensky MA, Borschmann R, Bose D, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brayne CEG, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Brown A, Brown J, Brugha TS, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cercy K, Cerda J, Chen W, Chew A, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona R, Daoud F, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, de Castro EF, de Jager P, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, dos Santos KPB, Dossou E, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ellenbogen RG, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faghmous IDA, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Flaxman A, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gall SL, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Ghoshal AG, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Gilmour S, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Greaves F, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Heckbert SR, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hilderink HBM, Hoek HW, Hogg RS, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu G, Huang C, Huang H, Huiart L, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Huynh G, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jonas JB, Joshi TK, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Kant S, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karletsos D, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissela BM, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krog NH, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leigh J, Levi M, Li Y, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Machado VMP, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Razek HMAE, Magdy M, Razek AE, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manamo WAA, Mandisarisa J, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martin GR, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montero P, Montico M, Montine TJ, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Morgan K, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naik N, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Neupane S, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norman PE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Ohkubo T, Ojelabi FA, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain A, Pandian JD, Pant PR, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pedro JM, Stokic LP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pope CA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Qorbani M, Quame-Amaglo J, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajavi Z, Rajsic S, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rangaswamy T, Rao P, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Blancas MJR, Roberts B, Roca A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy NK, Ruhago GM, Sagar R, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sanchez-Riera L, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shen Z, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Have MT, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tirschwell DL, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Dingenen RV, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Wagner JA, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Xavier D, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Younis MZ, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zannad F, Zavala DE, Zeeb H, Zeleke BM, Zhang H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1459-1544. [PMID: 27733281 PMCID: PMC5388903 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31012-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4031] [Impact Index Per Article: 503.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. INTERPRETATION At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum NJ, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown J, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lozano R, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, VanderZanden A, Wagner JA, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zhou M, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Ahmed MB, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Bayou TA, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Choudhury L, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman DJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jauregui A, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kajungu DK, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Oyekale AS, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai D, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Ranganathan K, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, van Os J, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1603-1658. [PMID: 27733283 PMCID: PMC5388857 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31460-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1387] [Impact Index Per Article: 173.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Gibney KB, Franklin LJ, Stephens N. Infectious diseases notification practices, Victoria 2013. Commun Dis Intell (2018) 2016; 40:E317-E325. [PMID: 28278404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Infectious disease notification practices in Victoria were reviewed to identify areas for potential improvement. METHODS Confirmed or probable cases of certain infectious diseases required to be notified to the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Victoria in 2013, excluding elevated blood lead, foodborne or water-borne illness with 2 or more related cases and chlamydial infection, were analysed according to: notification source of doctor ± laboratory vs. laboratory-only; routine follow-up by public health staff for selected conditions vs. not routine; priority for Indigenous status reporting for 18 priority conditions with a target of ≥ 95% completeness vs. other conditions with a target of ≥ 80% completeness; and urgency of notification (conditions requiring immediate [same day] notification vs. conditions requiring notification within 5 days). RESULTS Almost half (49%) the 34,893 confirmed and probable cases were notified by laboratory report alone. Indigenous status was complete for 48% of cases. Indigenous status was more likely to be completed for conditions with active vs. no active follow-up (RR 1.88 (95% CI 1.84-1.92)) and priority conditions for Indigenous status reporting vs. other conditions (RR 1.62 (95% CI 1.59-1.66)). Among conditions without active follow-up, doctor-notified cases had more complete Indigenous status reporting than laboratory-only notified cases (86% vs. 6%, RR 15.06 (95% CI 14.15-16.03)). Fewer notifications requiring same day notification were received within the legislated time frame (59%) than notifications required to be notified within 5 days (90%). DISCUSSION DHHS Victoria handles a large volume of infectious disease notifications. Incomplete Indigenous status reporting, particularly for conditions without active follow-up, and delayed notification of conditions requiring immediate attention warrant attention. These findings will be used to improve notification practices in Victoria. Commun Dis Intell 2016;40(3):E317-E325.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine B Gibney
- Public Health Physician, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Department of Health and Human Services, Victoria
- Research Fellow, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria
| | - Lucinda J Franklin
- Senior Epidemiologist, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Department of Health and Human Services, Victoria
| | - Nicola Stephens
- Manager, Communicable Disease Epidemiology and Surveillance, Health Protection Branch, Department of Health and Human Services, Victoria
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Neave PE, Heywood AE, Gibney KB, Leder K. Imported infections: What information should be collected by surveillance systems to inform public health policy? Travel Med Infect Dis 2016; 14:350-9. [PMID: 27235839 PMCID: PMC7110684 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2016.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2015] [Revised: 05/10/2016] [Accepted: 05/17/2016] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Background International travel carries the risk of imported diseases, which are an increasingly significant public health problem. There is little guidance about which variables should be collected by surveillance systems for strategy-based surveillance. Methods Surveillance forms for dengue, malaria, hepatitis A, typhoid and measles were collected from Australia and New Zealand and information on these compared with national surveillance forms from the UK and Canada by travel health experts. Variables were categorised by information relating to recent travel, demographics and disease severity. Results Travel-related information most commonly requested included country of travel, vaccination status and travel dates. In Australia, ethnicity information requested related to indigenous status, whilst in New Zealand it could be linked to census categories. Severity of disease information most frequently collected were hospitalisation and death. Conclusions Reviewing the usefulness of variables collected resulted in the recommendation that those included should be: overseas travel, reason for travel, entry and departure dates during the incubation period, vaccination details, traveller's and/or parents' country of birth, country of usual residence, time resident in current country, postcode, hospitalisation and death details. There was no agreement about whether ethnicity details should be collected. The inclusion of these variables on surveillance forms could enable imported infection-related policy to be formulated nationally and internationally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Penny E Neave
- School of Public Health and Psychosocial Studies, Auckland University of Technology, 90, Akoranga Drive, Northcote, Auckland, New Zealand.
| | - Anita E Heywood
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Kensington, New South Wales, Australia.
| | - Katherine B Gibney
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, The Alfred Centre, Monash University, Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Karin Leder
- School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, The Alfred Centre, Monash University, Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
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