Uptake of COVID-19 vaccinations amongst 3,433,483 children and young people: meta-analysis of UK prospective cohorts

SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP) can lead to life-threatening COVID-19, transmission within households and schools, and the development of long COVID. Using linked health and administrative data, we investigated vaccine uptake among 3,433,483 CYP aged 5-17 years across all UK nations between 4th August 2021 and 31st May 2022. We constructed national cohorts and undertook multi-state modelling and meta-analysis to identify associations between demographic variables and vaccine uptake. We found that uptake of the first COVID-19 vaccine among CYP was low across all four nations compared to other age groups and diminished with subsequent doses. Age and vaccination status of adults living in the same household were identified as important risk factors associated with vaccine uptake in CYP. For example, 5-11 year-olds were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to 16-17 year-olds (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR]: 0.10 (95%CI: 0.06-0.19)), and CYP in unvaccinated households were less likely to receive their first vaccine compared to CYP in partially vaccinated households (aHR: 0.19, 95%CI 0.13-0.29).

The association of anxiety disorders and depression with facial scarring: population-based, data linkage, matched cohort analysis of 358 158 patients

BACKGROUND

Estimates suggest that 1 in 100 people in the UK live with facial scarring. Despite this incidence, psychological support is limited.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to strengthen the case for improving such support by determining the incidence and risk factors for anxiety and depression disorders in patients with facial scarring.

METHOD

A matched cohort study was performed. Patients were identified via secondary care data sources, using clinical codes for conditions resulting in facial scarring. A diagnosis of anxiety or depression was determined by linkage with the patient's primary care general practice data. Incidence was calculated per 1000 person-years at risk (PYAR). Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors.

RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2018, 179 079 patients met the study criteria and were identified as having a facial scar, and matched to 179 079 controls. The incidence of anxiety in the facial scarring group was 10.05 per 1000 PYAR compared with 7.48 per 1000 PYAR for controls. The incidence of depression in the facial scarring group was 16.28 per 1000 PYAR compared with 9.56 per 1000 PYAR for controls. Age at the time of scarring, previous history of anxiety or depression, female gender, socioeconomic status and classification of scarring increased the risk of both anxiety disorders and depression.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high burden of anxiety disorders and depression in this patient group. Risk of these mental health disorders is very much determined by factors apparent at the time of injury, supporting the need for psychological support.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on community prescription of opioid and antineuropathic analgesics for cancer patients in Wales, UK

PURPOSE

Public health measures instituted at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK in 2020 had profound effects on the cancer patient pathway. We hypothesise that this may have affected analgesic prescriptions for cancer patients in primary care.

METHODS

A whole-nation retrospective, observational study of opioid and antineuropathic analgesics prescribed in primary care for two cohorts of cancer patients in Wales, using linked anonymised data to evaluate the impact of the pandemic and variation between different demographic backgrounds.

RESULTS

We found a significant increase in strong opioid prescriptions during the pandemic for patients within their first 12 months of diagnosis with a common cancer (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.15, 95% CI: 1.12-1.18, p < 0.001 for strong opioids) and significant increases in strong opioid and antineuropathic prescriptions for patients in the last 3 months prior to a cancer-related death (IRR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07, p < 0.001 for strong opioids; IRR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.08-1.14, p < 0.001 for antineuropathics). A spike in opioid prescriptions for patients diagnosed in Q2 2020 and those who died in Q2 2020 was observed and interpreted as stockpiling. More analgesics were prescribed in more deprived quintiles. This differential was less pronounced in patients towards the end of life, which we attribute to closer professional supervision.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate significant changes to community analgesic prescriptions for cancer patients related to the UK pandemic and illustrate prescription patterns linked to patients' demographic background.

Inequalities in colorectal cancer screening uptake in Wales: an examination of the impact of the temporary suspension of the screening programme during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Response to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the temporary disruption of cancer screening in the UK, and strong public messaging to stay safe and to protect NHS capacity. Following reintroduction in services, we explored the impact on inequalities in uptake of the Bowel Screening Wales (BSW) programme to identify groups who may benefit from tailored interventions.

METHODS

Records within the BSW were linked to electronic health records (EHR) and administrative data within the Secured Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Ethnic group was obtained from a linked data method available within SAIL. We examined uptake for the first 3 months of invitations (August to October) following the reintroduction of BSW programme in 2020, compared to the same period in the preceding 3 years. Uptake was measured across a 6 month follow-up period. Logistic models were conducted to analyse variations in uptake by sex, age group, income deprivation quintile, urban/rural location, ethnic group, and clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) status in each period; and to compare uptake within sociodemographic groups between different periods.

RESULTS

Uptake during August to October 2020 (period 2020/21; 60.4%) declined compared to the same period in 2019/20 (62.7%) but remained above the 60% Welsh standard. Variation by sex, age, income deprivation, and ethnic groups was observed in all periods studied. Compared to the pre-pandemic period in 2019/20, uptake declined for most demographic groups, except for older individuals (70-74 years) and those in the most income deprived group. Uptake continues to be lower in males, younger individuals, people living in the most income deprived areas and those of Asian and unknown ethnic backgrounds.

CONCLUSION

Our findings are encouraging with overall uptake achieving the 60% Welsh standard during the first three months after the programme restarted in 2020 despite the disruption. Inequalities did not worsen after the programme resumed activities but variations in CRC screening in Wales associated with sex, age, deprivation and ethnic group remain. This needs to be considered in targeting strategies to improve uptake and informed choice in CRC screening to avoid exacerbating disparities in CRC outcomes as screening services recover from the pandemic.

The epidemiology, healthcare and societal burden of basal cell carcinoma in Wales 2000-2018: a retrospective nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) represents the most commonly occurring cancer worldwide within the white population. Reports predict 298 308 cases of BCC in the UK by 2025, at a cost of £265-366 million to the National Health Service (NHS). Despite the morbidity, societal and healthcare pressures brought about by BCC, routinely collected healthcare data and global registration remain limited.

OBJECTIVES

To calculate the incidence of BCC in Wales between 2000 and 2018 and to establish the related healthcare utilization and estimated cost of care.

METHODS

The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank is one of the largest and most robust health and social care data repositories in the UK. Cancer registry data were linked to routinely collected healthcare databases between 2000 and 2018. Pathological data from Swansea Bay University Health Board (SBUHB) were used for internal validation.

RESULTS

A total of 61 404 histologically proven BCCs were identified within the SAIL Databank during the study period. The European age-standardized incidence for BCC in 2018 was 224.6 per 100 000 person-years. Based on validated regional data, a 45% greater incidence was noted within SBUHB pathology vs. matched regions within SAIL between 2016 and 2018. A negative association between deprivation and incidence was noted with a higher incidence in the least socially deprived and rural dwellers. Approximately 2% travelled 25-50 miles for dermatological services compared with 37% for plastic surgery. Estimated NHS costs of surgically managed lesions for 2002-2019 equated to £119.2-164.4 million.

CONCLUSIONS

Robust epidemiological data that are internationally comparable and representative are scarce for nonmelanoma skin cancer. The rising global incidence coupled with struggling healthcare systems in the post-COVID-19 recovery period serve to intensify the societal and healthcare impact. This study is the first to demonstrate the incidence of BCC in Wales and is one of a small number in the UK using internally validated large cohort datasets. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate one of the highest published incidences within the UK and Europe.

COVID-19 booster vaccination uptake and infection breakthrough amongst health care workers in Wales: A national prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

From September 2021, Health Care Workers (HCWs) in Wales began receiving a COVID-19 booster vaccination. This is the first dose beyond the primary vaccination schedule. Given the emergence of new variants, vaccine waning vaccine, and increasing vaccination hesitancy, there is a need to understand booster vaccine uptake and subsequent breakthrough in this high-risk population.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, national-scale, observational cohort study of HCWs in Wales using anonymised, linked data from the SAIL Databank. We analysed uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccinations from September 2021 to February 2022, with comparisons against uptake of the initial primary vaccination schedule. We also analysed booster breakthrough, in the form of PCR-confirmed SARS-Cov-2 infection, comparing to the second primary dose. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations for vaccination uptake and breakthrough regarding staff roles, socio-demographics, household composition, and other factors.

RESULTS

We derived a cohort of 73,030 HCWs living in Wales (78% female, 60% 18-49 years old). Uptake was quickest amongst HCWs aged 60 + years old (aHR 2.54, 95%CI 2.45-2.63), compared with those aged 18-29. Asian HCWs had quicker uptake (aHR 1.18, 95%CI 1.14-1.22), whilst Black HCWs had slower uptake (aHR 0.67, 95%CI 0.61-0.74), compared to white HCWs. HCWs residing in the least deprived areas were slightly quicker to have received a booster dose (aHR 1.12, 95%CI 1.09-1.16), compared with those in the most deprived areas. Strongest associations with breakthrough infections were found for those living with children (aHR 1.52, 95%CI 1.41-1.63), compared to two-adult only households. HCWs aged 60 + years old were less likely to get breakthrough infections, compared to those aged 18-29 (aHR 0.42, 95%CI 0.38-0.47).

CONCLUSION

Vaccination uptake was consistently lower among black HCWs, as well as those from deprived areas. Whilst breakthrough infections were highest in households with children.

Evaluating the cost of managing patients with cellulitis in Wales, UK: A 20-year population-scale study

This study aimed to estimate costs associated with managing patients with cellulitis from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. The analysis was undertaken through the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, which brings together population-scale, individual-level anonymised linked data from a wide range of sources, including 80% of primary care general practices within Wales (population coverage ~3.2 million). The data covered a 20-year period from 1999 to 2019. All patients linked to the relevant codes were tracked through primary care settings, recording the number of general practice visits (number of days with an event recorded) and number of in-patient stays. Resources were valued in monetary terms (£ sterling), with costs determined from national published sources of unit costs. These resources were then extrapolated out to reflect UK NHS costs. This is the first attempt to estimate the financial burden of cellulitis using routine data sources on a national scale. The estimated direct annual costs to the Welsh NHS (£28 554 338) are considerable. In-Patient events and length of stay costs are the main cost drivers, with annual Welsh NHS estimates of £19 664 126 with primary care events costing £8 890 212. Initiatives to support patients and healthcare professionals in identifying early signs/risks of cellulitis, improve the accuracy of initial diagnosis, prevent cellulitis recurrence, and improve evidence-based treatment pathways would result in major financial savings, to both the Welsh and UK NHS. In light of these findings, Wales has developed the innovative National Lymphoedema cellulitis Improvement Programme to address these burdens; providing a proactive model of cellulitis care.

Harmonising electronic health records for reproducible research: challenges, solutions and recommendations from a UK-wide COVID-19 research collaboration

BACKGROUND

The CVD-COVID-UK consortium was formed to understand the relationship between COVID-19 and cardiovascular diseases through analyses of harmonised electronic health records (EHRs) across the four UK nations. Beyond COVID-19, data harmonisation and common approaches enable analysis within and across independent Trusted Research Environments. Here we describe the reproducible harmonisation method developed using large-scale EHRs in Wales to accommodate the fast and efficient implementation of cross-nation analysis in England and Wales as part of the CVD-COVID-UK programme. We characterise current challenges and share lessons learnt.

METHODS

Serving the scope and scalability of multiple study protocols, we used linked, anonymised individual-level EHR, demographic and administrative data held within the SAIL Databank for the population of Wales. The harmonisation method was implemented as a four-layer reproducible process, starting from raw data in the first layer. Then each of the layers two to four is framed by, but not limited to, the characterised challenges and lessons learnt. We achieved curated data as part of our second layer, followed by extracting phenotyped data in the third layer. We captured any project-specific requirements in the fourth layer.

RESULTS

Using the implemented four-layer harmonisation method, we retrieved approximately 100 health-related variables for the 3.2 million individuals in Wales, which are harmonised with corresponding variables for > 56 million individuals in England. We processed 13 data sources into the first layer of our harmonisation method: five of these are updated daily or weekly, and the rest at various frequencies providing sufficient data flow updates for frequent capturing of up-to-date demographic, administrative and clinical information.

CONCLUSIONS

We implemented an efficient, transparent, scalable, and reproducible harmonisation method that enables multi-nation collaborative research. With a current focus on COVID-19 and its relationship with cardiovascular outcomes, the harmonised data has supported a wide range of research activities across the UK.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The psychosocial impact of microtia and ear reconstruction: A national data-linkage study

Introduction

Children with visible facial differences are believed to be at increased risk of negative psychosocial behaviours which may manifest as affective disorders. The aim of this study was to determine whether a diagnosis of microtia, and the associated surgical intervention, is associated with psychosocial implications including impaired educational attainment and a diagnosis of an affective disorder.

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was conducted using data linkage to identify patients in Wales with a diagnosis of microtia. Matched controls were sought on the basis of age, gender and socioeconomic deprivation status to yield a total sample size of 709. incidence was calculated using annual and geographic birth rates. Surgical operation codes were used to classify patients into those that had no surgery, autologous reconstruction or prosthetic reconstruction. Educational attainment at 11 years of age, plus a diagnosis of depression or anxiety were used as markers of adverse psychosocial outcomes and the relative risk was attained using logistic regression analyses.

Results

There were no significant associations between a diagnosis of microtia and an increased risk of adverse educational attainment or a risk of an affective disorder diagnosis. Male gender and higher deprivation scores were significantly associated with poorer educational attainment, irrespective of a diagnosis of microtia. Surgical intervention of any nature was also not associated with any increased risk of adverse educational or psychosocial outcomes in microtia patients.

Discussion

Microtia patients in Wales do not appear to be at greater risk of developing affective disorders or impaired academic performance as a result of their diagnosis or associated surgical intervention. Whilst reassuring, the need for appropriate support mechanisms to maintain positive psychosocial wellbeing and academic achievement in this patient cohort is reinforced.

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among 77,587 healthcare workers: a national observational longitudinal cohort study in Wales, United Kingdom, April to November 2020

OBJECTIVES

To better understand the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among healthcare workers, leading to recommendations for the prioritisation of personal protective equipment, testing, training and vaccination.

DESIGN

Observational, longitudinal, national cohort study.

SETTING

Our cohort were secondary care (hospital-based) healthcare workers employed by NHS Wales (United Kingdom) organisations from 1 April 2020 to 30 November 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 577,756 monthly observations among 77,587 healthcare workers. Using linked anonymised datasets, participants were grouped into 20 staff roles. Additionally, each role was deemed either patient-facing, non-patient-facing or undetermined. This was linked to individual demographic details and dates of positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression models to determine odds ratios (ORs) for the risk of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test.

RESULTS

Patient-facing healthcare workers were at the highest risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection with an adjusted OR (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 2.28 (95% CI 2.10-2.47). We found that after adjustment, foundation year doctors (OR 1.83 [95% CI 1.47-2.27]), healthcare support workers [OR 1.36 [95% CI 1.20-1.54]) and hospital nurses (OR 1.27 [95% CI 1.12-1.44]) were at the highest risk of infection among all staff groups. Younger healthcare workers and those living in more deprived areas were at a higher risk of infection. We also observed that infection rates varied over time and by organisation.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings have important policy implications for the prioritisation of vaccination, testing, training and personal protective equipment provision for patient-facing roles and the higher risk staff groups.

Impact of the temporary suspension of the Bowel Screening Wales programme on inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective register-based study

BACKGROUND

Response to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the temporary disruption of routine services in the UK National Health Service, including cancer screening. Following the reintroduction of services, we explored the impact on inequalities in uptake of the Bowel Screening Wales (BSW) programme to identify groups who might benefit from tailored intervention.

METHODS

BSW records were linked to electronic health record and administrative data within the Secured Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank Trusted Research Environment. We examined uptake in the first 3 months (from August to October, 2020) of invitations following the reintroduction of the BSW programme compared with the same period in the preceding 3 years. We analysed inequalities in uptake by sex, age group, income deprivation quintile, urban and rural location, ethnic group, and uptake between different periods using logistic regression models.

FINDINGS

Overall uptake remained above the 60% Welsh standard during the COVID-19 pandemic period of 2020-21 but declined compared with the pre-pandemic period of 2019-20 (60·4% vs 62·7%; p<0·001). During the COVID-19 pandemic period of 2020-21, uptake declined for most demographic groups, except for older individuals (70-74 years) and those in the most deprived quintile. Variation by sex, age, income deprivation, and ethnic groups was observed in all periods studied. Among low-uptake groups, including males, younger individuals (60-64 years), those living in most deprived areas, and ethnic minorities, uptake remains below the 60% Welsh standard.

INTERPRETATION

Despite the disruption, uptake remained above the Welsh standard and inequalities did not worsen after the programme resumed activities. However, variations associated with sex, age, deprivation, and ethnicity remain. These findings need to be considered in targeting strategies to improve uptake and informed choice in colorectal cancer screening such as co-producing information products with low-uptake groups and upscaling the use of GP-endorsed invitations and reminder letters for bowel screening.

FUNDING

Health Data Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, Administrative Data Research UK, and Health and Care Research Wales.

A methodology to facilitate critical care research using multiple linked electronic, clinical and administrative health records at population scale

Introduction

Critical Care is a specialty in medicine providing a service for severely ill and high-risk patients who, due to the nature of their condition, may require long periods recovering after discharge. Consequently, focus on the routine data collection carried out in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) leads to reporting that is confined to the critical care episode and is typically insensitive to variation in individual patient pathways through critical care to recovery.A resource which facilitates efficient research into interactions with healthcare services surrounding critical admissions, capturing the complete patient's healthcare trajectory from primary care to non-acute hospital care prior to ICU, would provide an important longer-term perspective for critical care research.

Objective

To describe and apply a reproducible methodology that demonstrates how both routine administrative and clinically rich critical care data sources can be integrated with primary and secondary healthcare data to create a single dataset that captures a broader view of patient care.

Method

To demonstrate the INTEGRATE methodology, it was applied to routine administrative and clinical healthcare data sources in the Secure Anonymised Data Linking (SAIL) Databank to create a dataset of patients' complete healthcare trajectory prior to critical care admission. SAIL is a national, data safe haven of anonymised linkable datasets about the population of Wales.

Results

When applying the INTEGRATE methodology in SAIL, between 2010 and 2019 we observed 91,582 critical admissions for 76,019 patients. Of these, 90,632 (99%) had an associated non-acute hospital admission, 48,979 (53%) had an emergency admission, and 64,832 (71%) a primary care interaction in the week prior to the critical care admission.

Conclusion

This methodology, at population scale, integrates two critical care data sources into a single dataset together with data sources on healthcare prior to critical admission, thus providing a key research asset to study critical care pathways.

Real-world treatment sequencing and survival in previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma patients receiving nivolumab monotherapy: a UK retrospective cohort study

Background

The CheckMate 025 trial established nivolumab monotherapy as one of the standards of care in previously treated advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (aRCC). However, supporting real-world data is lacking. This study investigated characteristics, treatment sequences and clinical outcomes of patients who received nivolumab monotherapy for previously treated aRCC in the UK.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of aRCC patients treated with nivolumab at second line or later (2L +) at 4 UK oncology centres. Eligible patients commenced nivolumab (index date) between 01 March 2016 and 30 June 2018 (index period). Study data were extracted from medical records using an electronic case report form. Data cut-off (end of follow-up) was 31 May 2019.

Results

In total, 151 patients were included with median follow-up of 15.2 months. Mean age was 66.9 years, male preponderance (72.2%), and mostly Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status grade 0–1 (71.5%). Amongst 112 patients with a known International Metastatic RCC Database Consortium score, distribution between favourable, intermediate, and poor risk categories was 20.5%, 53.6%, and 25.9% respectively.

The majority of patients (n = 109; 72.2%) received nivolumab at 2L, and these patients had a median overall survival (OS) of 23.0 months [95% confidence interval: 17.2, not reached]. All patients who received nivolumab at 2L had received TKIs at 1L. Amongst the 42 patients (27.8%) who received nivolumab in third line or later (3L +) the median OS was 12.4 months [95% CI: 8.8, 23.2]. The most common reasons for nivolumab discontinuation were disease progression (2L: 61.2%; 3L: 68.8%) and adverse events (2L: 34.7%; 3L: 28.1%).

Conclusion

This study provides real-world evidence on the characteristics, treatment sequences, and outcomes of aRCC patients who received 2L + nivolumab monotherapy in the UK. Nivolumab-specific survival outcomes were similar to those achieved in the CheckMate 025 trial.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on community medication dispensing: a national cohort analysis in Wales, UK

Background

Population-level information on dispensed medication provides insight on the distribution of treated morbidities, particularly if linked to other population-scale data at an individual-level.

Objective

To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on dispensing patterns of medications.

Methods

Retrospective observational study using population-scale, individual-level dispensing records in Wales, UK. Total dispensed drug items for the population between 1 st January 2016 and 31 st December 2019 (3-years, pre-COVID-19) were compared to 2020 with follow up until 27 th July 2021 (COVID-19 period). We compared trends across all years and British National Formulary (BNF) chapters and highlighted the trends in three major chapters for 2019-21: 1-Cardiovascular system (CVD); 2-Central Nervous System (CNS); 3-Immunological & Vaccine. We developed an interactive dashboard to enable monitoring of changes as the pandemic evolves.

Result

Amongst all BNF chapters, 73,410,543 items were dispensed in 2020 compared to 74,121,180 items in 2019 demonstrating -0.96% relative decrease in 2020. Comparison of monthly patterns showed average difference (D) of -59,220 and average Relative Change (RC) of -0.74% between the number of dispensed items in 2020 and 2019. Maximum RC was observed in March 2020 (D = +1,224,909 and RC = +20.62), followed by second peak in June 2020 (D = +257,920, RC = +4.50%). A third peak was observed in September 2020 (D = +264,138, RC = +4.35%). Large increases in March 2020 were observed for CVD and CNS medications across all age groups. The Immunological and Vaccine products dropped to very low levels across all age groups and all months (including the March dispensing peak).

Conclusions

Reconfiguration of routine clinical services during COVID-19 led to substantial changes in community pharmacy drug dispensing. This change may contribute to a long-term burden of COVID-19, raising the importance of a comprehensive and timely monitoring of changes for evaluation of the potential impact on clinical care and outcomes.

Validating the QCOVID risk prediction algorithm for risk of mortality from COVID-19 in the adult population in Wales, UK

Introduction

COVID-19 risk prediction algorithms can be used to identify at-risk individuals from short-term serious adverse COVID-19 outcomes such as hospitalisation and death. It is important to validate these algorithms in different and diverse populations to help guide risk management decisions and target vaccination and treatment programs to the most vulnerable individuals in society.

Objectives

To validate externally the QCOVID risk prediction algorithm that predicts mortality outcomes from COVID-19 in the adult population of Wales, UK.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected individual-level data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. The cohort included individuals aged between 19 and 100 years, living in Wales on 24th January 2020, registered with a SAIL-providing general practice, and followed-up to death or study end (28th July 2020). Demographic, primary and secondary healthcare, and dispensing data were used to derive all the predictor variables used to develop the published QCOVID algorithm. Mortality data were used to define time to confirmed or suspected COVID-19 death. Performance metrics, including R2 values (explained variation), Brier scores, and measures of discrimination and calibration were calculated for two periods (24th January-30th April 2020 and 1st May-28th July 2020) to assess algorithm performance.

Results

1,956,760 individuals were included. 1,192 (0.06%) and 610 (0.03%) COVID-19 deaths occurred in the first and second time periods, respectively. The algorithms fitted the Welsh data and population well, explaining 68.8% (95% CI: 66.9-70.4) of the variation in time to death, Harrell's C statistic: 0.929 (95% CI: 0.921-0.937) and D statistic: 3.036 (95% CI: 2.913-3.159) for males in the first period. Similar results were found for females and in the second time period for both sexes.

Conclusions

The QCOVID algorithm developed in England can be used for public health risk management for the adult Welsh population.

Investigating the uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines: protocol for an observational study using linked UK national data

INTRODUCTION

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which emerged in December 2019, has caused millions of deaths and severe illness worldwide. Numerous vaccines are currently under development of which a few have now been authorised for population-level administration by several countries. As of 20 September 2021, over 48 million people have received their first vaccine dose and over 44 million people have received their second vaccine dose across the UK. We aim to assess the uptake rates, effectiveness, and safety of all currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the UK.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will use prospective cohort study designs to assess vaccine uptake, effectiveness and safety against clinical outcomes and deaths. Test-negative case-control study design will be used to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Self-controlled case series and retrospective cohort study designs will be carried out to assess vaccine safety against mild-to-moderate and severe adverse events, respectively. Individual-level pseudonymised data from primary care, secondary care, laboratory test and death records will be linked and analysed in secure research environments in each UK nation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models will be carried out to estimate vaccine uptake levels in relation to various population characteristics. VE estimates against laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection will be generated using a generalised additive logistic model. Time-dependent Cox models will be used to estimate the VE against clinical outcomes and deaths. The safety of the vaccines will be assessed using logistic regression models with an offset for the length of the risk period. Where possible, data will be meta-analysed across the UK nations.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We obtained approvals from the National Research Ethics Service Committee, Southeast Scotland 02 (12/SS/0201), the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage independent Information Governance Review Panel project number 0911. Concerning English data, University of Oxford is compliant with the General Data Protection Regulation and the National Health Service (NHS) Digital Data Security and Protection Policy. This is an approved study (Integrated Research Application ID 301740, Health Research Authority (HRA) Research Ethics Committee 21/HRA/2786). The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub meets NHS Digital's Data Security and Protection Toolkit requirements. In Northern Ireland, the project was approved by the Honest Broker Governance Board, project number 0064. Findings will be made available to national policy-makers, presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.

The Impact of a Centralised Pancreatic Cancer Service: a Case Study of Wales, UK

INTRODUCTION

The centralisation of pancreatic cancer (PC) services still varies worldwide. This study aimed to assess the impact that a centralisation has had on patients in South Wales, UK.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis of patients in South Wales, UK, with PC prior to (2004-2009), and after (2010-2014) the formation of a specialist centre. Patients were identified using record linkage of electronic health records.

RESULTS

The overall survival (OS) of all 3413 patients with PC increased from a median (IQR) 10 weeks (3-31) to 11 weeks (4-35), p = 0.038, after centralisation. The OS of patients undergoing surgical resection or chemotherapy alone did not improve (93 weeks (39-203) vs. 90 weeks (50-95), p = 0.764 and 33 weeks (20-57) vs. 33 weeks (19-58), p = 0.793). Surgical resection and chemotherapy rates increased (6.1% vs. 9.2%, p < 0.001 and 19.7% vs. 27.0%, p < 0.001). The 30-day mortality rate trended downwards (7.2% vs. 3.6%, p = 0.186). The percentage of patients who received no treatment reduced (75.2% vs. 69.6%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The centralisation of PC services in South Wales is associated with a small increase in OS and a larger increase in PC treatment utilisation. It is concerning that many patients still fail to receive any treatments.

Educational achievements of children aged 10-11 years with cystic fibrosis. A data linkage study in Wales

Introduction

As people with cystic fibrosis (CF) lead longer, healthier lives, educational qualifications and employment prospects are increasingly important. However, little is known about the social consequences of CF, in particular, any impact on educational achievements and the support children with CF receive in schools.

Objectives

To assess the educational achievements of children with CF in Wales compared to the general Welsh population, and the additional learning support children with CF receive in schools.

Methods

We conducted a population-scale data linkage study of all children born in Wales using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. We used anonymised individual-level population-scale health and administrative data sources to identify children with CF born between 2000 - 2015, linked to educational attainment records. We calculated the percentage of children that reached expected levels in statutory assessment at age 10-11, Key Stage 2 (KS2), and compared this to educational outcomes in the general population. We also assessed the percentage of children with CF that received extra learning support.

Results

Out of 150 eligible children, 119 had KS2 results. 77% (95% CI: 69%-84%) of children achieved expected levels in English, 81% (95% CI: 73% -87%) in Mathematics and 82% (95% CI: 75% - 88%) in Science. In the comparable general Welsh population, 83.4% to 91.1% achieved the expected level in English, 84.9% to 91.6% in Maths, and 87.1% to 92.2% in Science across the years of the study. 70% of children with CF received extra learning support.

Conclusions

Children with CF in Wales may have worse educational achievements than the general population. More research is needed to inform policies and interventions to better support children with CF to reach their full educational potential and employment opportunities.

Frailty assessed by administrative tools and mortality in patients with pneumonia admitted to the hospital and ICU in Wales

The ideal method of identifying frailty is uncertain, and data on long-term outcomes is relatively limited. We examined frailty indices derived from population-scale linked data on Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and hospitalised non-ICU patients with pneumonia to elucidate the influence of frailty on mortality. Longitudinal cohort study between 2010-2018 using population-scale anonymised data linkage of healthcare records for adults admitted to hospital with pneumonia in Wales. Primary outcome was in-patient mortality. Odds Ratios (ORs [95% confidence interval]) for age, hospital frailty risk score (HFRS), electronic frailty index (eFI), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and social deprivation index were estimated using multivariate logistic regression models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated to determine the best fitting models. Of the 107,188 patients, mean (SD) age was 72.6 (16.6) years, 50% were men. The models adjusted for the two frailty indices and the comorbidity index had an increased odds of in-patient mortality for individuals with an ICU admission (ORs for ICU admission in the eFI model 2.67 [2.55, 2.79], HFRS model 2.30 [2.20, 2.41], CCI model 2.62 [2.51, 2.75]). Models indicated advancing age, increased frailty and comorbidity were also associated with an increased odds of in-patient mortality (eFI, baseline fit, ORs: mild 1.09 [1.04, 1.13], moderate 1.13 [1.08, 1.18], severe 1.17 [1.10, 1.23]. HFRS, baseline low, ORs: intermediate 2.65 [2.55, 2.75], high 3.31 [3.17, 3.45]). CCI, baseline < 1, ORs: '1-10' 1.15 [1.11, 1.20], > 10 2.50 [2.41, 2.60]). For predicting inpatient deaths, the CCI and HFRS based models were similar, however for longer term outcomes the CCI based model was superior. Frailty and comorbidity are significant risk factors for patients admitted to hospital with pneumonia. Frailty and comorbidity scores based on administrative data have only moderate ability to predict outcome.

Surgical activity in England and Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

A significant proportion of healthcare resource has been diverted to the care of those with COVID-19. This study reports the volume of surgical activity and the number of cancelled surgical procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We used hospital episode statistics for all adult patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020 in England and Wales. We identified surgical procedures using a previously published list of procedure codes. Procedures were stratified by urgency of surgery as defined by NHS England. We calculated the deficit of surgical activity by comparing the expected number of procedures from 2016 to 2019 with the actual number of procedures in 2020. Using a linear regression model, we calculated the expected cumulative number of cancelled procedures by December 31, 2021.

RESULTS

The total number of surgical procedures carried out in England and Wales in 2020 was 3 102 674 compared with the predicted number of 4 671 338 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4 218 740-5 123 932). This represents a 33.6% reduction in the national volume of surgical activity. There were 763 730 emergency surgical procedures (13.4% reduction) compared with 2 338 944 elective surgical procedures (38.6% reduction). The cumulative number of cancelled or postponed procedures was 1 568 664 (95% CI: 1 116 066-2 021 258). We estimate that this will increase to 2 358 420 (95% CI: 1 667 587-3 100 808) up to December 31, 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

The volume of surgical activity in England and Wales was reduced by 33.6% in 2020, resulting in more than 1.5 million cancelled operations. This deficit will continue to grow in 2021.

Long-term trends in critical care admissions in Wales

As national populations age, demands on critical care services are expected to increase. In many healthcare settings, longitudinal trends indicate rising numbers and proportions of patients admitted to ICU who are older; elsewhere, including some parts of the UK, a decrease has raised concerns with regard to rationing according to age. Our aim was to investigate admission trends in Wales, where critical care capacity has not risen in the last decade. We used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank to identify and characterise critical care admissions in patients aged ≥ 18 years from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017. We categorised 85,629 ICU admissions as youngest (18-64 years), older (65-79 years) and oldest (≥ 80 years). The oldest group accounted for 15% of admissions, the older age group 39% and the youngest group 46%. Relative to the national population, the incidence of admission rates per 10,000 population in the oldest group decreased significantly over the study period from 91.5/10,000 in 2008 to 77.5/10,000 (a relative decrease of 15%), and among the older group from 89.2/10,000 in 2008 to 75.3/10,000 in 2017 (a relative decrease of 16%). We observed significant decreases in admissions with high comorbidity (modified Charlson comorbidity index); increases in the proportion of older patients admitted who were considered 'fit' rather than frail (electronic frailty index); and decreases in admissions with a medical diagnosis. In contrast to other healthcare settings, capacity constraints and surgical imperatives appear to have contributed to a relative exclusion of older patients presenting with acute medical illness.

Microtia: A Data Linkage Study of Epidemiology and Implications for Service Delivery

Introduction: Previous studies of microtia epidemiology globally have demonstrated significant geographical and ethnic variation, cited broadly as affecting 3-5 in 10,000 live births. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of microtia in a largely homogeneous ethnic population in the United Kingdom (Wales) and to identify factors, such as distance and socioeconomic status, which may influence the access to surgical intervention. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data linkage to identify patients born between 2000 and 2018 with a diagnosis of microtia. Microtia incidence was calculated using annual and geographic birth rates. Surgical operation codes were used to classify patients into those that had no surgery, autologous reconstruction or prosthetic reconstruction. Sociodemographic attributes were compared using descriptive statistics to determine differences in access to each type of surgical intervention. Results: A total of 101 patients were identified, 64.4% were male and the median age was 12 (8-16). The mean annual incidence was 2.13 microtia cases per 10,000 births over the 19-year study period. Both temporal and geographic variation was noted. The majority of patients undergoing surgery opted for autologous reconstruction (72.9%) at a median age of 9 (7-10) compared to 7 (5-8) for prosthetic reconstruction. Autologous reconstruction had a higher median number of surgeries (2, 1-3) than prosthetic (1.5, 1-2) and a higher median socioeconomic status of 3 (2-4) compared to 2 (1-4) for the prosthetic cohort. There were no statistically significant differences in the distance traveled for surgery. Discussion: This study highlights a role for data linkage in epidemiological analyses and provides a revised incidence of microtia in Wales. Although the majority of patients opted for autologous reconstruction, demographic disparities in socioeconomic status warrant further investigation, emphasizing the importance of striving for equity in accessibility to surgical intervention.

Wales Inverse Care Law Programme - Design and Implementation of Routine Data Evaluation and Lessons Learned

IntroductionThe Inverse Care Law (ICL) programme in Wales was setup to tackle health inequalities. Eligible populations from deprived communities, at higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were invited to a health-check and offered appropriate lifestyle and clinical interventions. Objectives and ApproachEvaluation of this programme is vital to ensure that targeted interventions have been received by those most in need, including referrals to lifestyle services and support. The use of longitudinal population-scale routine-data required the development of an approach which was both efficient and cost effective. To achieve this, the Welsh Longitudinal General Practice (WLGP) data held in SAIL Databank was utilised. A programme-specific methodology was agreed by the programme-board and developed so that data collected from GP records prior, during and post health-check accurately identified the eligible population and allowed the effective assessment of lifestyle and clinical risk factors for CVD; poor diet, physical inactivity, smoking and high alcohol intake, so appropriate interventions could be offered. ResultsWe evaluated the programme from 2015 to 2019 in 70 GP’s across the participating Health-Boards, and identified 175,671 individuals eligible by the programme criteria. Substantial preliminary work has been carried out to ensure the specification of outcome measures are both clinically and epidemiologically accurate and relevant. The final report scheduled for release in August-2020, which will evaluate the impact of the programme. Conclusion / ImplicationsThis ambitious evaluation of a large-scale programme set in the community involving disparate systems and a range of stakeholders, has been both complex and challenging, requiring substantial effort to design and implement. We hope the outcomes and lessons learned from our experience will improve the design, implementation and evaluation of the programme and lead to improvements in services and the quality of life for people in Wales, and provide an exemplar for health care providers worldwide wishing to conduct similar programmes in the future.

Guideline for the management of hip fractures 2020: Guideline by the Association of Anaesthetists

We convened a multidisciplinary Working Party on behalf of the Association of Anaesthetists to update the 2011 guidance on the peri-operative management of people with hip fracture. Importantly, these guidelines describe the core aims and principles of peri-operative management, recommending greater standardisation of anaesthetic practice as a component of multidisciplinary care. Although much of the 2011 guidance remains applicable to contemporary practice, new evidence and consensus inform the additional recommendations made in this document. Specific changes to the 2011 guidance relate to analgesia, medicolegal practice, risk assessment, bone cement implantation syndrome and regional review networks. Areas of controversy remain, and we discuss these in further detail, relating to the mode of anaesthesia, surgical delay, blood management and transfusion thresholds, echocardiography, anticoagulant and antiplatelet management and postoperative discharge destination. Finally, these guidelines provide links to supplemental online material that can be used at readers' institutions, key references and UK national guidance about the peri-operative care of people with hip and periprosthetic fractures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Understanding and responding to COVID-19 in Wales: protocol for a privacy-protecting data platform for enhanced epidemiology and evaluation of interventions

INTRODUCTION

The emergence of the novel respiratory SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic have required rapid assimilation of population-level data to understand and control the spread of infection in the general and vulnerable populations. Rapid analyses are needed to inform policy development and target interventions to at-risk groups to prevent serious health outcomes. We aim to provide an accessible research platform to determine demographic, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors for infection, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, to measure the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation and long-term health, and to enable the evaluation of natural experiments of policy interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Two privacy-protecting population-level cohorts have been created and derived from multisourced demographic and healthcare data. The C20 cohort consists of 3.2 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2020 with follow-up until 31 May 2020. The complete cohort dataset will be updated monthly with some individual datasets available daily. The C16 cohort consists of 3 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2016 with follow-up to 31 December 2019. C16 is designed as a counterfactual cohort to provide contextual comparative population data on disease, health service utilisation and mortality. Study outcomes will: (a) characterise the epidemiology of COVID-19, (b) assess socioeconomic and demographic influences on infection and outcomes, (c) measure the impact of COVID-19 on short -term and longer-term population outcomes and (d) undertake studies on the transmission and spatial spread of infection.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study. The study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Oral health care among patients with diabetes in Australia: A snapshot

Background

Diabetes increases the risk of periodontal disease, which in turn negatively impact on diabetes control and complications. Therefore, awareness about the diabetes-oral health link and dental problems is important for people with diabetes. This study aimed to assess self-reported oral health status and knowledge of people living with diabetes.

Methods

A survey was conducted among patients who attended four public diabetes clinics in Sydney, Australia. The questionnaire included 10 knowledge items and a validated Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14) scale. A convenience sample of 200 patients were recruited. The data were analysed using SPSS software with descriptive and Pearson's Chi-Squared tests reported.

Results

The mean age of participants was 62.4(±13.5) years. More than half were males (54.5%), born overseas (64%), not working (73%) and had type 2 diabetes (88%). More than half (55.1%) of the patients reported having one or more dental problems and this was negatively associated with their oral health-related quality of life (p &lt; 0.001). The most common dental problems were: gaps between teeth, pain in teeth and dry mouth. Only 46.2% of the participants had adequate oral health knowledge (&gt; the mean correct score 5.2 (±2.6). The main areas with poor knowledge were around the impact of gum disease on blood glucose levels (29.6%), effects of dry mouth on tooth decay (33.8%) and the link between diabetes and teeth and gums (44.5%). Only 13% of the patients reported receiving oral health information from diabetes care providers (diabetes educator, general practitioner/diabetes specialist and dietitian/nutritionist). Receiving oral health information was found to be significantly associated with higher oral health knowledge scores (p &lt; 0.05).

Conclusions

Considering that a majority of patients with diabetes have dental problems and inadequate oral health knowledge, diabetes care providers should take the opportunity to educate patients about oral health risks.

Key messages

People living with diabetes found to have dental problems and inadequate oral health knowledge. Considering that diabetes and dental problems adversely affect each other, it is crucial to educate patients about good oral hygiene and regular dental visit.

Identifying children with Cystic Fibrosis in population-scale routinely collected data in Wales: A Retrospective Review

INTRODUCTION

The challenges in identifying a cohort of people with a rare condition can be addressed by routinely collected, population-scale electronic health record (EHR) data, which provide large volumes of data at a national level. This paper describes the challenges of accurately identifying a cohort of children with Cystic Fibrosis (CF) using EHR and their validation against the UK CF Registry.

OBJECTIVES

To establish a proof of principle and provide insight into the merits of linked data in CF research; to identify the benefits of access to multiple data sources, in particular the UK CF Registry data, and to demonstrate the opportunity it represents as a resource for future CF research.

METHODS

Three EHR data sources were used to identify children with CF born in Wales between 1st January 1998 and 31st August 2015 within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. The UK CF Registry was later acquired by SAIL and linked to the EHR cohort to validate the cases and explore the reasons for misclassifications.

RESULTS

We identified 352 children with CF in the three EHR data sources. This was greater than expected based on historical incidence rates in Wales. Subsequent validation using the UK CF Registry found that 257 (73%) of these were true cases. Approximately 98.7% (156/158) of individuals identified as CF cases in all three EHR data sources were confirmed as true cases; but this was only the case for 19.8% (20/101) of all those identified in just a single data source.

CONCLUSION

Identifying health conditions in EHR data can be challenging, so data quality assurance and validation is important or the merit of the research is undermined. This retrospective review identifies some of the challenges in identifying CF cases and demonstrates the benefits of linking cases across multiple data sources to improve quality.

The association of smoking and socioeconomic status on cutaneous melanoma: a population-based, data-linkage, case-control study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have identified an inverse association between melanoma and smoking; however, data from population-based studies are scarce.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between smoking and socioeconomic (SES) on the risk of development of melanoma. Furthermore, we sought to determine the implications of smoking and SES on survival.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based case-control study. Cases were identified from the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit (WCISU) during 2000-2015 and controls from the general population. Smoking and SES were obtained from data linkage with other national databases. The association of smoking status and SES on the incidence of melanoma were assessed using binary logistic regression. Multivariate survival analysis was performed on a melanoma cohort using a Cox proportional hazard model using survival as the outcome.

RESULTS

During 2000-2015, 9636 patients developed melanoma. Smoking data were obtained for 7124 (73·9%) of these patients. There were 26 408 controls identified from the general population. Smoking was inversely associated with melanoma incidence [odds ratio (OR) 0·70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·65-0·76]. Smoking was associated with an increased overall mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1·30, 95% CI 1·09-1·55], but not associated with melanoma-specific mortality. Patients with higher SES had an increased association with melanoma incidence (OR 1·58, 95% CI 1·44-1·73). Higher SES was associated with an increased chance of both overall (HR 0·67, 95% CI 0·56-0·81) and disease-specific survival (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·53-0·90).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has demonstrated that smoking appeared to be associated with reduced incidence of melanoma. Although smoking increases overall mortality, no association was observed with melanoma-specific mortality. Further work is required to determine if there is a biological mechanism underlying this relationship or an alternative explanation, such as survival bias. What's already known about this topic? Previous studies have been contradictory with both negative and positive associations between smoking and the incidence of melanoma reported. Previous studies have either been limited by publication bias because of selective reporting or underpowered. What does this study add? Our large study identified an inverse association between smoking status and melanoma incidence. Although smoking status was negatively associated with overall disease survival, no significant association was noted in melanoma-specific survival. Socioeconomic status remains closely associated with melanoma. Although higher socioeconomic populations are more likely to develop the disease, patients with lower socioeconomic status continue to have a worse prognosis.

Impact of cystic fibrosis on birthweight: a population based study of children in Denmark and Wales

BACKGROUND

Poor growth during infancy and childhood is a characteristic feature of cystic fibrosis (CF). However, the impact of CF on intrauterine growth is unclear. We studied the effect of CF on birth weight in Denmark and Wales, and assessed whether any associations are due to differences in gestational age at birth.

METHODS

We conducted national registry linkage studies in two countries, using data for 2.2 million singletons born in Denmark (between 1980 and 2010) and Wales (between 1998 and 2015). We used hospital inpatient and outpatient data to identify 852 children with CF. Using causal mediation methods, we estimated the direct and indirect (via gestational age) effect of CF on birth weight after adjustment for sex, parity and socioeconomic background. We tested the robustness of our results by adjusting for additional factors such as maternal smoking during pregnancy in subpopulations where these data were available.

RESULTS

Babies with CF were more likely to be born preterm and with low birth weight than babies with no CF (12.7% vs 5% and 9.4% vs 5.8% preterm; 11.9% vs 4.2% and 11% vs 5.4% low birth weight in Denmark and Wales, respectively). Using causal mediation methods, the total effect of CF on birth weight was estimated to be -178.8 g (95% CI -225.43 to -134.47 g) in the Danish population and -210.08 g (95% CI -281.97 to -141.5 g) in the Welsh population. About 40% of this effect of CF on birth weight was mediated through gestational age.

CONCLUSIONS

CF significantly impacts on intrauterine growth and leads to lower birth weight in babies with CF, which is only partially explained by shorter gestation.

Improving the quality of care pathways for sarcoma patients and the advantages of using WCISU’s (Welsh Cancer Intelligence Surveillance Unit) national cancer registry

IntroductionSoft Tissue Sarcoma (STS) diagnosis is difficult due to its nature and the variability of its occurrence on the body. To improve patient outcomes a better understanding was needed of the care pathways experienced by the patient from initial presentation to final treatment. Objectives and ApproachSeveral items of information are necessary, within the data, to identify a care pathway. A correct STS diagnosis, a presentation date or first investigation date, a diagnosis date and any subsequent treatment dates. Identifying cases in hospital data, using International Classification of Diseases (ICD10) codes - C40, C41, C47 and C49 - based on cancer site - can miss cases and cause difficulties when trying to distinguish the difference between the investigation and treatment stages. Having access to WCISU’s national cancer registry, proved advantageous and enabled the routine data to be validated. ResultsAttempts to identify differences between investigative and treatment procedures using the procedure codes available in hospital data was unhelpful due to variations in coding. However, WCISU’s national cancer registry records all cases of cancer diagnosed in Wales using both ICD10 and International Classification of Diseases for Oncology codes to record cancer morphology. In addition, it records the date of diagnosis and treatment start dates. Using the cancer registry it was possible to cross-check the cases extracted from the hospital data and identify the diagnosis and treatment dates. By matching the treatment dates back to the hospital data it then became possible to analyse the procedure codes to see how many treatments were being delivered, the type of treatment and the periods covered. Conclusion/ImplicationsOnce accurate diagnosis and treatments dates were identified, it was possible to drill further into the hospital data to see the finer detail of the procedures the patient received. Utilising independent data sources made it possible to develop an enriched view of patient care pathways from diagnosis through to treatment.

Challenges of identifying children with Cystic Fibrosis to explore inequalities in social and health outcomes, using multiply linked data sources

IntroductionCystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common life-limiting inherited disease in white populations, with most patients dying prematurely from respiratory failure. As it is rare, it is important to reduce misclassification. We therefore aimed to assess how well CF children could be identified across routine data in Wales. Objectives and ApproachData from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank, identified children with CF from 1998 to 2016, within hospital, General Practice (GP), and the Welsh Congenital Abnormality Register (CARIS), which uses new born screening to identify congenital abnormalities, including CF. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD10) E84 was used to identify CF children in both hospital and CARIS data, with READ codes used in the GP data (approximately 80% coverage of Wales). The data was linked using anonymised linking fields and matching rates analysed, as unmatched records in linked data can reduce the utility of the data for epidemiological studies. Results352 cases were identified in total, with 158 matched across all three datasets over an 18 year period (9-19 cases per year). The Welsh rate from the disease registry is 12–14. Since CF is a severely debilitating condition, a greater match was expected. This prompted further investigation of cases which appeared in only one dataset, as these seemed least likely to be true cases. In the ‘CARIS only’ data, 79% of the admissions, were found coded for respiratory, digestive and health complications not for an E84 CF condition. In the 43 cases in ‘GP only’ data, and the 19 in ‘hospital only’ data the events indicated the possible late presentation of CF by older children or children with very mild CF phenotypes. Conclusion/ImplicationsCases of rare diseases like CF can be identified in routine data. Linking across multiple datasets, particularly with specialist datasets like CARIS, help identify potentially misclassified cases. This increases confidence in the data. Future work will include the CF registry, permitting checks against a gold standard data resource.

Anaesthetic aspects in the treatment of fragility fracture patients

As longevity increases globally, the number of older, frailer, comorbid patients requiring fragility fracture surgery will increase. Fundamentally, anaesthesia should aim to maintain these patients' pre-fracture cognitive and physiological trajectories and facilitate early (ie day 1) postoperative recovery. This review describes the 10 general principles of anaesthesia for fragility fracture surgery that best achieve these aims: multidisciplinary care, 'getting it right first time', timely surgery, standardisation, sympathetic anaesthesia, avoiding ischaemia, sympathetic analgesia, re-enablement, data collection and training.

Health outcomes for youth with type 1 diabetes at 18 months and 30 months post transition from pediatric to adult care

AIMS

To identify (a) determinants of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) at 18 and 30 months following transition in young people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) to a youth-specific diabetes service; and to (b) evaluate the impact of the service on acute admissions with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) over a 14-year period.

METHODS

An audit of records of youth with T1DM referred from paediatric services to the multidisciplinary transition service at Westmead Hospital, from 2001 to 2012, and followed-up to 2014.

RESULTS

Data from 439 adolescents and young adults (Median age: 18) were analysed. The recommended standard of glycaemic control, HbA1c < 7.5% (58 mmol/mol), was achieved by 23% at baseline, 22% at 18-months, and 20% at 30-month. After adjusting for lag time (>3 months) and diabetes duration (>7 years), glycaemic control at first visit predicted subsequent glycaemic control at 18-month and 30-month follow-up. From 2001 to 2014, only 8.6% were lost to follow-up; admissions and readmissions for DKA reduced from 72% (32/47) to 4% (14/340) (p < 0.001). Furthermore, mean length of stay (LOS) significantly decreased from 6.56 to 2.36 days (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Continuing engagement with the multidisciplinary transition service prevented deterioration in HbA1c following transition. Age-appropriate education and regular follow-up prevents DKA admissions and significantly reduced admission LOS.

An observational feasibility study of a new anaesthesia drug storage tray

Drug errors in the anaesthetic domain remain a serious cause of iatrogenic harm. To help reduce this issue, we explored the potential safety impact of using a simple colour-coded tray for anaesthetic drug preparation and storage. Over a six-month period, three different trained researchers observed 30 cases at three NHS Trusts. Ten observations involved standard drug trays in 'normal' practice, and 20 observations, involved 'Rainbow trays' before and after their introduction. We conducted 20 semi-structured interviews immediately after completing the Rainbow tray observation with the anaesthetists involved. All discussions and detailed notes taken were transcribed, qualitatively analysed using line-by-line coding and then synthesised into narrative themes. We found that using standard, single compartment trays enabled quick, cheap, and portable drug preparation and storage, but was linked to potential or actual harmful errors, such as syringe swaps. Rainbow trays were perceived to be easy to use and effective at all three sites, aiding drug identification and separation, and hence likely to reduce drug error and increase patient safety. We have demonstrated that it is feasible to introduce a new colour-coded compartmentalised Rainbow drugs tray into clinical practice at three NHS hospitals in England. Further research is needed into their effect on the prevalence of drug error.

Assessment of neuronal autoantibodies in patients with small cell lung cancer treated with chemotherapy with or without ipilimumab

Small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) is often associated with paraneoplastic syndromes. To assess the role of anti-neuronal autoantibodies (NAAs) as biomarkers of treatment outcome, we assessed NAAs in serial samples from SCLC patients treated with chemoimmunotherapy compared to chemotherapy alone. We evaluated 2 cohorts: in cohort 1 (C1), 47 patients received standard platinum/etoposide, and in cohort 2 (C2), 38 patients received ipilimumab, carboplatin and etoposide. Serum samples at baseline and subsequent time points were analyzed for the presence of NAAs. NAAs were detected at baseline in 25 patients (53.2%) in C1 and in 20 patients (52.6%) in C2 (most frequently anti-Sox1). NAA at baseline was associated with limited disease (75% vs 50%; p: 0.096) and better overall survival (15.1 m vs 11.7 m; p: 0.032) in C1. Thirteen patients (28.9%) showed 2 or more reactivities before treatment; this was associated with worse PFS (5.5 m vs 7.3 m; p: 0.005) in patients treated with chemoimmunotherapy. NAA titers decreased after therapy in 68.9% patients, with no differential patterns of change between cohorts. Patients whose NAA titer decreased after treatment, showed longer OS [18.5 m (95% CI: 15.8 - 21.2)] compared with those whose NAA increased [12.3 m (95% CI: 8.1 - 16.5; p 0.049)], suggesting that antibody levels correlate to tumor load. Our findings reinforce the role of NAAs as prognostic markers and tumor activity/burden in SCLC, warrant further investigation in their predictive role for immunotherapy and raise concern over the use of immunotherapy in patients with more than one anti-NAA reactivity.