Optomicrofluidic detection of cancer cells in peripheral blood via metabolic glycoengineering

The currently existing label-based techniques for the detection of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) target natural surface proteins of cells and are therefore applicable to only limited cancer cell types. We report optomicrofluidic detection of cancer cells in the pool of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) by exploiting the difference in their cell metabolism. We employ metabolic glycoengineering as a click chemistry tool for tagging cells that yields several fold-higher fluorescence signals from cancer cells compared to that from PBMCs. The effects of concentrations of the tagging compounds and cell incubation time on the fluorescence signal intensity are studied. The tagged cells were encapsulated in droplets ensuring that cells enter the detection region two-dimensionally focused in single-file and optically detected with a high detection efficiency and low coefficient of variation of the signals. The metabolic tagging approach showed a significantly higher tagging efficiency and average fluorescence signal compared to the well-established and widely adopted anti-EpCAM-FITC-based tagging. We demonstrated the detection of three different cancer cell lines - EpCAM-negative cervical cancer cell, HeLa, weakly EpCAM positive, and triple-negative breast cancer cell, MDA-MB-231, and strongly EpCAM positive breast cancer cell, MCF7, highlighting that the proposed technique is independent of naturally occurring cell surface proteins and widely applicable. The metabolically tagged and optically detected cells were successfully recultured, proving the compatibility of the proposed technique with downstream assays. The proposed technique is then utilised for the detection of CTCs in metastatic cancer patients' blood. The current work provides a new strategy for detecting cancer cells in the blood that can find potential applications in both fundamental research and clinical studies involving CTCs as well as in single-cell sequencing.

Litchi consumption and missed meals continue to be associated with acute encephalopathy syndrome among children: an investigation of the 2019 outbreak in Muzaffarpur district, Bihar, India

BACKGROUND

Muzaffarpur district in Bihar State of India recorded a resurgence of acute encephalopathy syndrome (AES) cases in the summer of 2019 after no reported outbreak in 3 y. Earlier studies generated evidence that litchi consumption and missing the previous evening's meal were associated with AES. We investigated the recent outbreak to understand the risk factors associated with AES.

METHODS

We conducted a matched case-control study by comparing AES cases with healthy controls from case-households and the neighborhood community for risk factors like missing evening meal and litchi consumption before onset of AES.

RESULTS

We recruited 61 cases and 239 controls. Compared with the community controls, case-patients were five times more likely to have reported eating litchi in the 7 d preceding the onset of illness (adjusted OR [AOR]=5.1; 95% CI 1.3 to 19) and skipping the previous evening's meal (AOR=5.2; 95% CI 1.4 to 20). Compared with household controls, case-patients were five times more likely to be children aged <5 y (AOR=5.3; 95% CI 1.3 to 22) and seven times more likely to have skipped the previous evening's meal (AOR=7.4; 95% CI 1.7 to 34).

CONCLUSIONS

Skipping the previous evening's meal and litchi consumption were significantly associated with AES among children in Muzaffarpur and adjoining districts of Bihar.

Polymeric micelles and cancer therapy: an ingenious multimodal tumor-targeted drug delivery system

Since the beginning of pharmaceutical research, drug delivery methods have been an integral part of it. Polymeric micelles (PMs) have emerged as multifunctional nanoparticles in the current technological era of nanocarriers, and they have shown promise in a range of scientific fields. They can alter the release profile of integrated pharmacological substances and concentrate them in the target zone due to their improved permeability and retention, making them more suitable for poorly soluble medicines. With their ability to deliver poorly soluble chemotherapeutic drugs, PMs have garnered considerable interest in cancer. As a result of their remarkable biocompatibility, improved permeability, and minimal toxicity to healthy cells, while also their capacity to solubilize a wide range of drugs in their micellar core, PMs are expected to be a successful treatment option for cancer therapy in the future. Their nano-size enables them to accumulate in the tumor microenvironment (TME) via the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect. In this review, our major aim is to focus primarily on the stellar applications of PMs in the field of cancer therapeutics along with its mechanism of action and its latest advancements in drug and gene delivery (DNA/siRNA) for cancer, using various therapeutic strategies such as crossing blood-brain barrier, gene therapy, photothermal therapy (PTT), and immunotherapy. Furthermore, PMs can be employed as "smart drug carriers," allowing them to target specific cancer sites using a variety of stimuli (endogenous and exogenous), which improve the specificity and efficacy of micelle-based targeted drug delivery. All the many types of stimulants, as well as how the complex of PM and various anticancer drugs react to it, and their pharmacodynamics are also reviewed here. In conclusion, commercializing engineered micelle nanoparticles (MNPs) for application in therapy and imaging can be considered as a potential approach to improve the therapeutic index of anticancer drugs. Furthermore, PM has stimulated intense interest in research and clinical practice, and in light of this, we have also highlighted a few PMs that have previously been approved for therapeutic use, while the majority are still being studied in clinical trials for various cancer therapies.

Evaluation of stab avulsion versus subfascial endoscopic perforator surgery in the management of chronic venous insufficiency resulting from incompetent leg perforators in primary varicose veins

Chronic venous insufficiency (CVI) resulting from incompetent perforators due to varicose veins is a common surgical condition present in at least 10% of the general population. This study was planned to evaluate stab avulsion vs subfascial endoscopic perforator surgery in the management of incompetent perforators resulting in CVI. Forty patients of CVI resulting from primary varicose veins, falling into class 4 to 6 as per the clinical part of CEAP classification, along with Duplex assessment with proven incompetent perforators of lower extremity, irrespective of the status of saphenousfemoral or saphenous-popliteal junction status, were included in the study. All the patients were randomized into two groups, A and B, by a computer-generated draw. Group A patients underwent stab avulsion, and group B patients underwent SEPS for incompetent perforators. The following parameters were evaluated: (i) pain score using a visual analog scale at 1 hour, 12 hours and 24 hours after surgery, (ii) ulcer healing 1 month and 3 months after surgery, (iii) reversal of skin changes after 1 month and 3 months of surgery during follow-up, and (iv) wound-related complications. Early relief of symptoms in terms of ulcer healing, reversal of skin changes, and decreased incidence of wound complications was found to be better in the subfascial endoscopic perforators surgery (SEPS) group.

Systematic Review of Comparison of use of Ultrasonic Scalpel Versus Conventional Haemostatic Techniques in Performing Thyroid Surgery

Haemostasis during any surgical procedure is fundamental for attaining a positive patient outcome. Safe thyroid surgery requires meticulous attention for careful control of bleeding and safe guarding important structures like recurrent laryngeal nerve. Many methods such as ligation and suturing, electro ligation sealing, coagulation, and ultrasonic coagulation have been put to use for achieving haemostasis. The objective of this systemic review was to compare and review the surgical outcomes between harmonic (ultrasonic) scalpel and conventional ligature techniques in performing thyroid surgery. The systematic review was performed in accordance with PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement and checklist with a total of 11 studies selected for qualitative analysis. The statistical software Review Manager 5.4.1 provided by the Cochrane Collaboration was used for performing the analysis on the two groups. It was concluded that the use of harmonic scalpel for thyroid surgery is useful for reducing operative time, postoperative pain, drainage volume and transient hypocalcemia, hence can be a reliable and a safe tool compared to conventional techniques often used for surgery.

Impact of Foliar Application of ZnO and Fe3O4 Nanoparticles on Seed Yield and Physio-Biochemical Parameters of Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) Seed under Open Field and Protected Environment vis a vis during Seed Germination

Nutritionally rich cucumber seeds remain in demand in the agricultural, health and cosmetic sectors as they are essential for a successful crop stand establishment and seed-based products. However, the production of cucumber seeds is impeded by source limitation and nutrient deficiency. The foliar application of micronutrients can supplement this deficiency and overcome the physiological setback. An experiment was undertaken to compare the impacts of the foliar application of Fe and Zn, as nanoparticles and fertilizers, on the yield and seed quality of cucumber under open and protected environments. A foliar spray of nano-ZnO (ZnNPs) and nano-Fe₃O₄ (FeNPs) at 100, 200 and 300 mg L^-1, as well as ZnSO₄ and FeSO₄ as fertilizer (0.5%), was conducted at the vegetative stage and pre- and post-flowering stages. The NPs had a greater efficacy in an open field than in the protected (naturally ventilated poly house) environment. The application of both NPs increased seed yield (51.7-52.2%), total chlorophyll content (15.9-17.3%) and concentration of Zn and Fe in the fruit and the seed, by 2.0-58.5% and 5.0-30.5%, respectively. A significant increase in starch, soluble proteins, soluble sugars and oil content was observed in the seeds from the NP treated plants. NP treatment also enhanced the germination-related parameters, such as percent germination (16.8-17.0%), rate of germination (18.0-22.2%) and seedling vigor (59.8-72.6%). The biochemical characterization showed a significant improvement in the seed water uptake and the activity of hydrolytic enzymes (amylase and protease) in the germinating seed. The involvement of reactive oxygen species (superoxide anion and hydrogen peroxide) and antioxidant enzymes (Superoxide dismutase, Catalase and Peroxidase) in the germination process was indicated by an increase in their activities in the seeds from NP treated plants. Hence, the study proposes the potential benefit of the foliar application of 300 mg L^-1 ZnNPs and 200 mg L^-1 FeNPs at crucial stages of plant growth to improve the yield and seed quality in cucumbers.

To evaluate the role of double J stent versus no stent in patients of renal and upper ureteric calculus undergoing extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy

Background: Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) was first introduced by Chaussy in 1980 for the treatment of urolithiasis, which has revolutionized the treatment of urinary stones. Renal colic, urinary tract obstruction, uremia, and renal failure can occur because of the stone fragments obstructing the ureter during the post-ESWL period. The role of double-J (DJ) stents in ESWL is controversial. Aims and Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate the role of DJ stent in patients with renal and upper ureteric calculus undergoing extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy. Materials and Methods: Two hundred patients with solitary calculus 5 mm–2 cm in size, amenable to ESWL, located in renal pelvis, upper or middle calyx, upper ureter visiting Lok Nayak Hospital, New Delhi from December 2015 to April 2019 were studied and randomized into two groups: Test group (non-stented, 100 patients) and control group (Stented, 100 patients). Both groups underwent ESWL and subsequently compared for the following parameters: Stone clearance, post lithotripsy pain and analgesic dose requirement, number of ESWL sittings and shockwaves required, steinstrasse, urinary tract infection (UTI), and hematuria. Patients were followed up for 3 months after stone clearance to look for any recurrence. Results: There was a significant difference (P<0.05) in the two groups with smaller number of ESWL sittings and number of shockwaves required, low frequency of colicky pain episodes and mean pain score, less analgesic dose requirement, lower incidence of hematuria, and UTI in non-DJ stent group. The overall stone clearance was higher in the non-DJ stent group (96.4%) as compared to the DJ stent group (89.3%). The incidence of steinstrasse was higher in the DJ stent group (10.7%) as compared to none in the non-DJ stent group. Conclusions: There is no additional benefit of DJ stent on stone clearance, rather stenting further increases the morbidity due to associated complications. DJ stenting should not be performed in patients undergoing ESWL for renal and upper ureteric calculus up to 2 cm size.

Assessment of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in young reproductive aged women with polycystic ovarian syndrome: analogy of surrogate indices

BACKGROUND

Polycystic ovarian syndrome has emerged as a cardiometabolic disorder and aim of this study was to evaluate various surrogate indices and their diagnostic potential to determine the most convenient and cost-effective marker of IR, CVD, and MetS in these women.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Ninety-five PCOS women and 45 age matched healthy women were enrolled. Measures included anthropometric and biochemical parameters, BMI, WHR, WHtR, BAI, VAI, LAP, HOMA-IR, and lipid profile.

RESULTS

LAP has highest AUC value 0.781 with cut-off value = 39.73 (sensitivity = 75% and specificity = 79.5%) for predicting IR and AUC value 0.83 with cut-off value = 35.63 (sensitivity = 94.4% and specificity = 77.3%) for predicting MetS in women with PCOS. LAP had statistically strong positive correlation with WC, BMI, WHR, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, TC, TG, and SBP.

CONCLUSIONS

LAP is a powerful and reliable marker for assessment of IR, CVD, and MetS risk in young Indian women with PCOS.

Efficacy and Safety of Topical Solution of Diperoxochloric Acid for Neuropathic Diabetic Foot Ulcer: Results from a Phase 3, Multicentre, Randomized, Active-controlled, Parallel-group Study

Diabetic foot ulcer (DFU), if untreated, accounts for lower-limb amputations affecting patients' quality-of-life. Diperoxochloric acid (DPOCL) is known to heal DFU by its antibacterial and fibroblast stimulating activity. This was a phase 3, multicentre, randomized, double-blind, active-controlled, parallel-group study conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of topic solution of DPOCL compared with isotonic sodium chloride solution (ISCL). Adult patients with type 1 or 2 diabetes with random blood glucose levels of <250 mg/dL, with ≤ than three full-thickness foot ulcers were enrolled. Primary efficacy endpoint was complete wound closure and secondary was wound surface area. Adverse events were analyzed as safety endpoint. Of 311 enrolled patients, 289 were randomized 1:1 to DPOCL (139) and ISCL (150) treatment (10-weeks [8-Visits]). Percentage of patients with complete wound closure at visit-8, were significantly higher (P = .0156) in DPOCL arm (76% [105/139]) compared to ISCL (62% [93/150]) arm. At end-of-study, mean wound surface area in DPOCL arm (0.639 cm2) was significantly lower (P = .0209) compared to ISCL (0.818 cm2) arm. One death was reported in control arm which was not considered as treatment-related. No important safety finding were observed. Results indicate that, DPOCL can be considered as effective and safe treatment option for DFU compared to ISCL, although future confirmatory studies are warranted.

Rare presentation of isolated hydatid disease of the breast

Isolated hydatid disease of the breast is a rare condition, possessing a diagnostic dilemma for the clinicians. Hydatid disease is common in endemic areas affecting most commonly the liver and lungs. Other organs rarely involved are the kidney, bone and brain. It is caused by the parasite Echinococcus granulosus, widely spread by cattle and sheep. Humans are the accidental host for this organism. We present a similar case of isolated hydatid cyst of the breast, which was diagnosed preoperatively and managed successfully.

Addressing Reemergence of Diphtheria among Adolescents through Program Integration in India

We report a diphtheria outbreak mostly among children (median 12 years; range 4–26 years) of a religious minority in urban India. Case-fatality rate (15%, 19/124) was higher among unimmunized patients (relative risk 4.1, 95% CI 1.5–11.7). We recommend mandating and integrating immunization into school health programs to prevent reemergence.

Particle encapsulation in aqueous ferrofluid drops and sorting of particle-encapsulating drops from empty drops using a magnetic field

Handling and manipulation of particle-encapsulating droplets (PED) have profound applications in biochemical assays. Herein we report encapsulation of microparticles in aqueous ferrofluid droplets in a primary continuous phase (CP) and sorting of PED from empty droplets (ED) at the interface of the CP in coflow with a second continuous phase using a magnetic field. We find that the encapsulation process results in a size contrast between the PED and ED that depends on the flow regime - squeezing, dripping, or jetting - which in turn is governed by the ratio of the discrete phase to the continuous phase capillary number, Ca_r. The difference between the volume fractions of ferrofluid in the PED and ED, Δα_PED, is utilized for sorting, and is found to depend on the ratio of the capillary numbers, Ca_r. The difference Δα_PED is found to be maximum in the jetting regime, suggesting that the jetting regime is most suitable for encapsulation and sorting. The sorting criterion is represented in terms of a parameter ξ, which is a function of the ratios of the magnetic force to the interfacial force experienced by the PED and ED. Our study revealed that sorting is possible for ξ < 0, which corresponds to Δα_PED > 0.25. The maximum sorting efficiency of our system is found to be ∼95% at a throughput of ∼100 drops per s.

A randomised controlled trial of Lichtenstein repair with Desarda repair in the management of inguinal hernias

Background

Ever since the advent of mesh hernioplasty with low recurrence rates, surgeons have turned a blind eye towards its devastating mesh related complications. Consequently, the quest for the best hernia surgery, that is as effective as the mesh repair but lacks its complications, continues.

Objectives

The present study was carried out to compare the results of the Lichtenstein repair with the Desarda repair in the treatment of inguinal hernias.

Methods

A total of 77 patients with 87 hernias were randomly allocated into two groups to undergo either the Desarda repair (Group I, 39 patients with 45 hernias) or the Lichtenstein repair (Group II, Control, 38 patients with 42 hernias). 3 patients didn't complete the follow-up and were excluded from analysis. Finally, 40 hernias were analyzed in the Lichtenstein group and 44 in the Desarda group.

Results

After a 6-month follow-up period it was found that neither of the two groups had any recurrence. The incidence of chronic inguinodynia was much higher in the Lichtenstein group as compared to Desarda group. The pain scores, mean operating time, mean time to return to work and analgesic requirement was much lower with the Desarda repair as compared to Lichtenstein repair.

Conclusion

Desarda repair was found to be as effective as the Lichtenstein repair in terms of recurrence and better in terms of chronic inguinodynia, complications and post operative pain scores. Desarda repair requires a significantly shorter operating time. The economic burden of this repair is much less compared to mesh repair.

•Inguinal hernia remains one of the most commonly performed surgery by general surgeons.

•There are various techniques but researchers have focused on one with zero recurrence, less complications and less post operative pain.

•Desarda (tissue repair) is a technique where mesh is not used. It is very promising for countries with low healthcare budget like India.

•In our study Desarda has been found to have same rate of recurrence as Lichtenstein with less post operative pain (inguinodynia) and infections.

•Operating time was also less in Desarda repair, along with less requirement of post operative analgesics and early return to routine activities.

Cholera outbreak investigation, Bhadola, Delhi, India, April-May 2018

BACKGROUND

In the Gangetic plains of India, including Delhi, cholera is endemic. On 10 May 2018, staff at the north Delhi district surveillance unit identified a laboratory-confirmed cholera outbreak when five people tested positive for Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa serotype in Bhadola. We investigated to identify risk factors and recommend prevention measures.

METHODS

We defined a case as ≥3 loose stools within 24 h in a Bhadola resident during 1 April-29 May 2018. We searched for cases house-to-house. In a 1 : 1 unmatched case control study, a control was defined as an absence of loose stools in a Bhadola resident during 1 April-29 May 2018. We selected cases and controls randomly. We tested stool samples for Vibrio cholerae by culture. We tested drinking water for fecal contamination. Using multivariable logistic regression we calculated adjusted ORs (aORs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

We identified 129 cases; the median age was 14.5 y, 52% were females, 27% were hospitalized and there were no deaths. Symptoms were abdominal pain (54%), vomiting (44%) and fever (29%). Among 90 cases and controls, the odds of illness were higher for drinking untreated municipal water (aOR=2.3; 95% CI 1.0 to 6.2) and not knowing about diarrhea transmission (aOR=4.9; 95% CI 1.0 to 21.1). Of 12 stool samples, 6 (50%) tested positive for Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa serotype. Of 15 water samples, 8 (53%) showed growth of fecal coliforms.

CONCLUSIONS

This laboratory-confirmed cholera outbreak associated with drinking untreated municipal water and lack of knowledge of diarrhea transmission triggered public health action in Bhadola, Delhi.

An outbreak of acute skin and soft tissue infections including necrotizing fasciitis in Kalwala village, India, 2018: Public health implications for the lymphatic filariasis elimination program

BACKGROUND

A cluster of 15 acute skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs), including two cases of necrotizing fasciitis, reported in July 2018 from Kalwala village, led us to investigate and describe their epidemiology and to provide recommendations.

METHODS

Cases, defined as localized painful swelling and redness in Kalwala residents from 1 December 2017 to 20 August 2018, were identified from hospital records and house-to-house surveys. We conducted an unmatched case-control study to identify risk factors for severity. We cultured wound samples and environmental samples from wound-dressing stations.

RESULTS

We identified 36 cases (median age: 55 [range 17-80] y; 78% male), village attack rate 1% (36/4337) and no deaths. In 34 cases (94%), lower limbs were involved. Lymphatic filariasis (LF) was a common predisposing condition (67%). Comorbidities (diabetes or hypertension) (OR=9; 95% CI 2.0 to 41.1), poor limb hygiene (OR=16; 95% CI 2.8 to 95.3) and poor health-seeking behavior (OR=5; 95% CI 1.6 to 30.8) were associated with severity. All seven wound samples and 8/11 samples from wound-dressing stations showed atypical polymicrobial growth (Pseudomonas, Proteus, Klebsiella, Escherichia coli and Clostridium).

CONCLUSION

The outbreak of SSTIs among older males with LF was due to secondary bacterial infections and severity was associated with comorbidities, poor hygiene and health-seeking behavior, and likely contamination during wound-dressing. The LF elimination program managers was alerted, programmatic interventions were scaled up, home/facility-based morbidity and comorbidity management was facilitated and the outbreak was rapidly contained.

Experience of setting up of Control room for COVID-19 at NCDC, New Delhi

Significant public health events of the 21^st century include epidemic prone diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), influenza A (H1N1), Ebola virus disease, and coronavirus (SARS-COV-2). Preparedness as well as risk mitigation strategies play an integral role for the success of responses to such health emergencies. An extraordinary cluster of cases of respiratory disease of unknown cause triggered a series of events that constituted a public health risk across the globe through international spread from China and was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January, 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). To monitor implementation of activities in order to contain the local transmission of COVID-2019 in India, a control room was established at the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), New Delhi on 23^rd January, 2020 under the Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP). The main objectives of the control room were to alleviate the concerns and address queries of passengers arriving from the affected countries and also to provide the general public information regarding the measures to be taken as well as the contact details of the respected district health authorities for further necessary action. A total of 183 hunting lines were established at the NCDC, Noida, TB Centre, and the National Health Authority (NHA) Hyderabad and Bengaluru by March 2020. A total of 79,013 calls, 1,04,779 emails, and 1,787 international calls were received w.e.f. 23 January to 30 March, 2020 at the NCDC control room. The NHA Bengaluru and Hyderabad Control room received 3,52,176 calls w.e.f. 15 March to 30 March and TB Noida control room received 55,018 calls w.e.f. 16 March to 30 March, 2020. This prompt action of the center to set up a control room at the NCDC gave the states enough grace period to train their staff and start their individual help lines for addressing people's queries and allay fears.

The Role of Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Lichtenstein Repair of Primary Inguinal Hernia: A Prospective Double-Blind Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial

Objective:

The objective is to study the role of antibiotic prophylaxis, if any, in the prevention of wound infection after open mesh repair of primary inguinal hernias.

Materials and Methods:

Patients coming to outpatient department for open mesh repair of inguinal hernia were randomized into the placebo group and antibiotic group, a total of 150 patients were enrolled in the study. Follow-up was done up to 1 month to look for any evidence of surgical site infection using the criteria of Centers for Disease Control on wound infection.

Results:

Twelve patients in the antibiotic group and nine patients in the placebo group were found to have evidence of surgical site infection. This difference was found to be insignificant with P = 0.14. Three patients in the placebo group developed deep surgical site infection but on analysis, this difference was also found to be insignificant with P = 0.122.None of these patients required mesh removal.

Conclusion:

The result of the present study suggests that the use of prophylactic antibiotics during mesh repair of primary inguinal hernias does not give any extra protection from infections. Multicenter meta-analysis is required to give definite guidelines regarding the use of prophylactic antibiotics.

Differential levels of CHMP2B, LLPH, and SLC25A51 proteins in secondary renal amyloidosis

OBJECTIVES

Renal amyloidosis (RA) is a rare disease, typically manifested with proteinuria, nephrotic syndrome, and ultimately leads to renal failure. The present study aims to profile the proteomes of renal amyloidosis patient's serum and healthy controls, along with relative quantification to find out robust markers for RA.

METHODS

In this study, 12 RA patients and their corresponding age and gender-matched healthy controls were recruited from the Nephrology department of Max Super Specialty Hospital, New Delhi. We employed gel-based proteomic approach coupled with MALDI-TOF MS to compare protein expression patterns in RA patients and controls. Furthermore, validation of differential proteins (selected) was done using bio-layer interferometry.

RESULTS

Eleven proteins showed remarkably altered expression levels. Moreover, expression modulation of three proteins (LLPH, SLC25A51, and CHMP2B) was validated which corroborated with two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) results showing significant upregulation (p < 0.05) in RA patients followed by ROC analysis which demonstrated the diagnostic potential of these proteins. A protein-protein master network was generated implicating the above identified proteins along with their interactors, fishing out the routes leading to amyloidosis.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that the identified serum proteomic signatures could improve early diagnosis and lead to possible therapeutic targets in RA.

Fluoride Geochemistry and Exposure Risk Through Groundwater Sources in Northeastern Parts of Rajasthan, India

Exposure to fluoride concentrations above a threshold of 1.5 mg/L can cause joint pains, restricted mobility, skeletal and dental fluorosis. This study aims to determine the hydrochemical evolution of the fluoride-rich groundwater and estimate the risk of fluoride exposure to the residents of semi-arid northeastern part of Rajasthan, India. The methodology involves measurement of fluoride and other ionic concentrations in groundwater using ion chromatography, followed by an estimation of the cumulative density function and fluorosis risk. The fluoride concentration in water samples varied from 0.04 to 8.2 mg/L with 85% samples falling above the permissible limit. The empirical cumulative density function was used to estimate the percentage and degree of health risks associated with the consumption of F^- contaminated water. It is found that 55% of the samples indicate risk of dental fluorosis, 42% indicate risk of deformities to knee and hip bones, and 18% indicate risk of crippling fluorosis. In addition, instances of high nitrate concentrations above the permissible limit of 45 mg/L are also found in 13% of samples. The fluoride rich groundwater is mainly associated with the Na-HCO₃-Cl type water facies while low fluoride groundwater shows varied chemical facies. The saturation index values indicate a high probability of a further increase in F^- concentration in groundwater of this region. The calculated fluoride exposure risk for the general public in the study area is 3-6 times higher than the allowed limit of 0.05 mg/kg/day. Based on the results of this study, a fluorosis index map was prepared for the study area. The northern and northeastern parts are less prone to fluorosis, whereas the south-central and southwestern parts are highly vulnerable to fluorosis. The inferences from this study help to prioritize the regions that need immediate attention for remediation.

Differential expression of Lumican, Mimecan, Annexin A5 and Serotransferrin in ectopic and matched eutopic endometrium in ovarian endometriosis: a case-control study

AIM

Endometriosis is a debilitating disease marked by recurrent gynecological proliferations. The present study aimed at performing differential proteomic analysis of matched eutopic and ectopic endometrium from women with ovarian endometriosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Proteomes were resolved using nano LC-MS and further identified and quantified using ProteinLynx Global SERVER (PLGS) software. Selected proteins were further chosen for validation by real time-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

RESULTS

The protein profiles uncovered several differentially expressed proteins in the diseased sample (ectopic endometrium) as compared to the reference sample (eutopic endometrium). The study involved an advanced proteomic approach, nano LC-MS, and validates for the first time the upregulation of Mimecan and Lumican proteins in endometriosis.

CONCLUSIONS

These proteins may hence prove as potentially useful tools in the search for diagnostic markers for early detection of the disease.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Seroprevalence Surveys in India: An Insight into Current COVID-19 Pandemic Situation

Antibody test is used in seroprevalence surveys for Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). Apart from estimating the proportion of population infected, they can help in drawing plenty of inferences about the extent, progress and course of the pandemic. They can potentially be helpful in planning and prioritising vaccine distribution by providing a broad overview into proportion of population immune to COVID-19 in a geographic area and also help in understanding the pockets of high or low seroprevalence. This review was conducted with an aim of compiling an updated and comprehensive information about the seroprevalence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody in various pockets of India in the year 2020, and thus to understand the current pandemic situation in the country. A total of 35 studies were identified through all resources and detailed review was carried out based on these studies. Additionally, indicators were devised to understand and compare the results. Results were further classified into states/Union Territories (UTs), districts, Sub-district regions. The study findings show that the anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies seroprevalence estimates vary across different regions (states/UTs, districts, sub district regions) of India and can increase or in some instances decrease over the course of time. The study concludes by asserting the need for repeated seroprevalence surveys as well as follow-up studies for current pandemic surveillance.

Prevalence and risk factors of soil-transmitted helminth infections in school age children (6-14 years) - A cross-sectional study in an urban resettlement colony of Delhi

Background

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections have adverse physical and mental effect, especially in preschool (3-6 years) and school-age children (6-14 years). They are associated with socio-behavioral factors of poverty and poor personal and community hygiene.

Objectives

To determine the prevalence, intensity, and the type of helminths infection harbored by the school age children (6-14 years) and to examine the relationship between STH infection and their potential risk factors and associated variables.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted from January to December 2016 among 250 school age children residing in an urban resettlement colony of East Delhi. Data were collected using a semistructured interview schedule. Stool sample was tested using the Kato Katz technique. Data were analyzed in SPSS software version 16, and multivariable regression analysis was done to calculate the odds of various risk factors.

Results

The prevalence of STH was found to be 54.8%, and majority (85.3%) of Ascaris and all Trichuris infections were of light intensity. Multivariable logistic regression analysis confirmed that children having poor handwashing behavior in school, irregular handwashing before eating, having pica, and lack of de-worming had higher odds of having STH infection.

Conclusion

The prevalence of STH in the study area is substantially high, and the findings suggest that besides mass de-worming strategy, behavior change, and improvement in hygiene are required to control STH.

Attraction and Repulsion between Liquid Droplets over a Liquid-Impregnated Surface

We show that adjacent liquid droplets exhibit long-range attraction and repulsion on an immiscible liquid impregnating a surface when either the drop or the impregnating liquid is volatile. Remarkably, we find that at small times the interaction is attractive, analogous to the "Cheerios effect", but at large times the interaction becomes repulsive depicting the "reverse-Cheerios effect". Our study reveals that the interaction is underpinned by wetting and capillarity, buoyancy, and evaporation phenomena. We experimentally observe the interaction between a pair of droplets and provide a theoretical framework to quantitatively predict their transport behavior.

Online Medical Teaching in COVID-19 Era: Experience and Perception of Undergraduate Students

Introduction: Rapid emergence of COVID-19 as pandemic has affected the life of almost every human being and has changed the way people used to interact. It has also affected medical education and clinical training, and forced medical schools to switch over to online mode of teaching. The aim of this study was to learn about the experience and perception of undergraduate students regarding online teaching. Methods: This is a cross sectional observational study conducted among the undergraduate students of Hamdard Institute of Medical Sciences and Research, New Delhi, India. A validated electronic questionnaire with nine questions was sent to 177 students as Google FormsTM. Responses from 161 students were received and analyzed using SPSS software. Results:The majority of students were satisfied with the frequency, organization, content and preparedness of classes. Half of students were neither satisfied with the amount of syllabus covered nor online teaching method. Among various teaching methods, live online lectures were most common and they were also preferred by the majority of students. Most students want hybrid or blended teaching in the post COVID-19 era. Conclusion: Online or e-teaching alone is not preferred by the majority of students. Lack of interpersonal interaction is the most likely reason for this. Hybrid or blended teaching holds the future of medical education as it is more student friendly and efficient.

Differential expression of MAP3K7 and TROPONIN C proteins and related perturbations in renal amyloidosis

OBJECTIVES

Renal amyloidosis (RA) is a rare protein misfolding disorder that prompts progressive renal insufficiency. This study aimed to decipher proteomic changes in human sera to understand the pathophysiology and molecular mechanisms underlying the disease development, hence assisting in the diagnosis of RA.

METHODS

Serum proteomic analysis was performed using a gel-based approach followed by MALDI-TOF MS. RA patients with age and sex matched healthy volunteers were recruited from Max Super Speciality Hospital, New Delhi, India.

RESULTS

Proteome profiles of serum revealed eight differentially expressed proteins namely, Zinc finger protein 624, Protein FAM183A, Calcium-binding mitochondrial carrier protein Scamc-3, V-type proton ATPase 116 kDa subunit A isoforms 2, Protein TXNRD3NB, ATP - dependent RNA helicase, Troponin C and Mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase kinase 7. These proteins were reported first time in RA. The increased levels of MAP3K7 and TROPONIN C were validated by bio-layer interferometry and their diagnostic accuracy was evaluated by ROC curve analysis. The differentially expressed proteins were predominantly associated with vesicular trafficking, transcriptional regulation, metabolic processes, apoptotic process and mitochondrial metabolism.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that these proteomic signatures may be considered as potential molecular targets for RA diagnostics and therapeutics subject to validation on large sample size. Abbreviations: AβP= Amyloid-beta protein, Aβ=Amyloid-beta, AL= Light chain amyloidosis, AA= Amyloid A, ALECT2= LECT2 amyloidosis, APS= Ammonium persulfate CKD= Chronic Kidney Diseases, EBRT= external beam radiation therapy, ESRD= End-Stage Kidney Disease, Glis2= Gli-similar 2, JNK= c-Jun NH 2-terminal kinase, MAPK= Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase, MM=Multiple Myeloma, PHD= Prolyl hydroxylase, RA = Renal Amyloidosis, SAA= Serum Amyloid A, SD= Standard Deviation, Sepp= Selenoprotein, SCC= Squamous cell carcinoma, SDS= Sodium dodecyl sulfate, TEMED = tetramethyl ethylenediamine, TGF-Beta-1=Transforming growth factor- Beta-1, Trx = Thioredoxin, TrxR= Thioredoxin reductase.

Disease surveillance during a large religious mass gathering in India: The Prayagraj Kumbh 2019 experience

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At Kumbh Mela 2019, disease surveillance was established for 22 acute diseases and syndromes.

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Among the reported illnesses, 95% were communicable diseases such as acute respiratory illness (35%), acute fever (28%), and skin infections (18%).

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The incident command centre generated 12 early warning signals from indicator-based and event-based surveillance: acute diarrheal diseases (n = 8, 66%), vector-borne diseases (n = 2, 16%), vaccine-preventable disease (n = 1, 8%), and thermal event (n = 1, 8%).

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There were two outbreaks (acute gastroenteritis and chickenpox) that were investigated and controlled.

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Implementation of disease surveillance facilitated early outbreak detection and response.

Background

Mass gathering (MG) events are associated with public health risks. During the period January 14 to March 4, 2019, Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj, India was attended by an estimated 120 million visitors. An onsite disease surveillance was established to identify and respond to disease outbreaks.

Methods

A health coordination committee was established for planning. Disease surveillance was prioritized and risk assessment was done to identify diseases/conditions based on epidemic potential, severity of illness, and reporting requirement under the International Health Regulations (IHR) of 2005. A daily indicator and event-based disease surveillance was planned. The indicator-based surveillance (IBS) manually and electronically recorded data from patient hospital visits and collected MG area water testing data to assess trends. The event-based surveillance (EBS) helped identify outbreak signals based on pre-identified event triggers from the media, private health facilities, and the food safety department. Epidemic intelligence was used to analyse the data and events to detect signals, verify alerts, and initiate the response.

Results

At Kumbh Mela, disease surveillance was established for 22 acute diseases/syndromes. Sixty-five health facilities reported 156 154 illnesses (21% of a total 738 526 hospital encounters). Among the reported illnesses, 95% (n = 148 834) were communicable diseases such as acute respiratory illness (n = 52 504, 5%), acute fever (n = 41 957, 28%), and skin infections (n = 27 094, 18%). The remaining 5% (n = 7300) were non-communicable diseases (injuries n = 6601, 90%; hypothermia n = 224, 3%; burns n = 210, 3%). Water samples tested inadequate for residual chlorine in 20% of samples (102/521). The incident command centre generated 12 early warning signals from IBS and EBS: acute diarrheal disease (n = 8, 66%), vector-borne disease (n = 2, 16%), vaccine-preventable disease (n = 1, 8%), and thermal event (n = 1, 8%). There were two outbreaks (acute gastroenteritis and chickenpox) that were investigated and controlled.

Conclusions

This onsite disease surveillance imparted a public health legacy by successfully implementing an epidemic intelligence enabled system for early disease detection and response to monitor public health risks. Acute respiratory illnesses emerged as a leading cause of morbidity among visitors. Future MG events should include disease surveillance as part of planning and augment capacity for acute respiratory illness diagnosis and management.

Impact of nonpharmacological interventions on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in India

Background

As of May 4, 2020, India has reported 42,836 confirmed cases and 1,389 deaths from COVID-19. India's multipronged response included nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) like intensive case-based surveillance, expanding testing capacity, social distancing, health promotion, and progressive travel restrictions leading to a complete halt of international and domestic movements (lockdown).

Objectives

We studied the impact of NPI on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in India and estimated the minimum level of herd immunity required to halt it.

Methods

We plotted time distribution, estimated basic (R₀) and time-dependent effective (R_t) reproduction numbers using software R, and calculated doubling time, the growth rate for confirmed cases from January 30 to May 4, 2020. Herd immunity was estimated using the latest R_tvalue.

Results

Time distribution showed a propagated epidemic with subexponential growth. Average growth rate, 21% in the beginning, reduced to 6% after an extended lockdown (May 3). Based on early transmission dynamics, R₀was 2.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] =1.79-3.07). Early, unmitigated R_t= 2.51 (95% CI = 2.05-3.14) (March 15) reduced to 1.28 (95% CI = 1.22-1.32) and was 1.83 (95% CI = 1.71-1.93) at the end of lockdown Phase 1 (April 14) and 2 (May 3), respectively. Similarly, average early doubling time (4.3 days) (standard deviation [SD] = 1.86) increased to 5.4 days (SD = 1.03) and 10.9 days (SD = 2.19). Estimated minimum 621 million recoveries are required to halt COVID-19 spread if R_tremains below 2.

Conclusion

India's early response, especially stringent lockdown, has slowed COVID-19 epidemic. Increased testing, intensive case-based surveillance and containment efforts, modulated movement restrictions while protecting the vulnerable population, and continuous monitoring of transmission dynamics should be a way forward in the absence of effective treatment, vaccine, and undetermined postinfection immunity.

Trapping and Coalescence of Diamagnetic Aqueous Droplets Using Negative Magnetophoresis

The manipulation of aqueous droplets has a profound significance in biochemical assays. Magnetic field-driven droplet manipulation, offering unique advantages, is consequently gaining attention. However, the phenomenon relating to diamagnetic droplets is not well understood. Here, we report the understanding of trapping and coalescence of flowing diamagnetic aqueous droplets in a paramagnetic (oil-based ferrofluid) medium using negative magnetophoresis. Our study revealed that the trapping phenomenon is underpinned by the interplay of magnetic energy (E_m) and frictional (viscous) energy (E_f), in terms of magnetophoretic stability number, S_m = (E_m/E_f). The trapping and nontrapping regimes are characterized based on the peak value of magnetophoretic stability number, S_mp, and droplet size, D*. The study of coalescence of a trapped droplet with a follower droplet (and a train of droplets) revealed that the film-drainage Reynolds number (Re_fd) representing the coalescence time depends on the magnetic Bond number, Bo_m. The coalesced droplet continues to remain trapped or gets self-released obeying the S_mp and D* criterion. Our study offers an understanding of the magnetic manipulation of diamagnetic aqueous droplets that can potentially be used for biochemical assays in microfluidics.

Development of a pulsed radio frequency ignited multicusp-free negative hydrogen ion source

A multicusp-free external antenna based radio frequency (RF) negative hydrogen (H^-) ion source was developed to produce 16 mA of H^- ion current at -50 kVDC accelerating voltage operated with a pulse width of 2 ms at 2 Hz repetition rate. A pulsed RF igniter system is devised for generating the initial electron and ion pairs required to generate the main plasma in the pulsed mode. This pulsed RF igniter reliably starts ignition with a hydrogen gas flow rate in the range of 18-50 standard cubic centimeter per minute (SCCM). This system eliminates the need of igniter in continuous operation although it is operated in low power mode. This source operating at a low average power and without any moving parts can be expected to have a superior lifetime. This paper describes the development and operational characteristics of the pulsed RF ignited H^- ion source.

A community-wide acute diarrheal disease outbreak associated with drinking contaminated water from shallow bore-wells in a tribal village, India, 2017

Background

In 2016, India reported 709 acute diarrheal disease (ADD) outbreaks (> 25% of all outbreaks). Tribal populations are at higher risk with 27% not having accessibility to safe drinking water and 75% households not having toilets. On June 26, 2017 Pedda-Gujjul-Thanda, a tribal village reported an acute diarrheal disease (ADD) outbreak. We investigated to describe the epidemiology, identify risk factors, and provide evidence-based recommendations.

Methods

We defined a case as ≥3 loose stools within 24 h in Pedda-Gujjul-Thanda residents from June 24–30, 2017. We identified cases by reviewing hospital records and house-to-house survey. We conducted a retrospective cohort study and collected stool samples for culture. We assessed drinking water supply and sanitation practices and tested water samples for faecal-contamination.

Results

We identified 191 cases (65% females) with median age 36 years (range 4–80 years) and no deaths. The attack-rate (AR) was 37% (191/512). Downhill colonies (located on slope of hilly terrains of the village) reported higher ARs (56%[136/243], p < 0.001) than others (20%[55/269]). Symptoms included diarrhea (100%), fever (17%), vomiting (16%) and abdominal pain (13%). Drinking water from five shallow bore-wells located in downhill colonies was significantly associated with illness (RR = 4.6, 95%CI = 3.4–6.1 and population attributable fraction 61%). In multi-variate analysis, drinking water from the shallow bore-wells located in downhill colonies (aOR = 7.9, [95% CI =4.7–13.2]), illiteracy (aOR =6, [95% CI = 3.6–10.1]), good hand-washing practice (aOR = 0.4, [95%CI = 0.2–0.7]) and household water treatment (aOR = 0.3, [95%CI = 0.2–0.5]) were significantly associated with illness. Two stool cultures were negative for Vibrio cholerae. Heavy rainfall was reported from June 22–24. Five of six water samples collected from shallow bore-wells located in downhill colonies were positive for faecal contamination.

Conclusion

An ADD outbreak with high attack rate in a remote tribal village was associated with drinking water from shallow downhill bore-wells, likely contaminated via runoff from open defecation areas after heavy rains. Based on our recommendations, immediate public health actions including repair of leakages at contaminated water sources and alternative supply of purified canned drinking water to families, and as long-term public health measures construction of house-hold latrines and piped-water supply initiated.

Pre-sternal thyroid swellings: a case of rare aberrant site recurrence and review of literature

Background

Thyroid swellings enlarge caudally into the mediastinum behind the sternum. Pre-sternal swelling of thyroid origin is very rare. We present our case of pre-sternal thyroid swelling which was albeit a surprisingly rare site of papillary thyroid carcinoma recurrence and review of pre-sternal thyroid swellings reported till date.

Case summary

A 60 year old female presented with a painless, progressive swelling on the anterior part of the chest for the past 2 years. A 15 cm × 8 cm vertically aligned, non tender, well defined swelling was present on the pre-sternal region, with consistency ranging from soft to firm. The swelling was fixed to the underlying tissues and a fixed level IV lymph node was palpable on the right side. Ultrasonography revealed a large mass of 15 × 7 cm with multiple cystic areas. Fine needle aspiration cytology was inconclusive twice. Patient had undergone a total thyroidectomy for papillary carcinoma 10 years back. Computed tomography findings revealed a large 15 × 6.6 × 7 cm lobulated, pre-sternal, soft tissue lesion with solid & cystic components. The mass was infiltrating the right sided strap muscles and sternocleidomastoid. FNAC was inconclusive and thyroid scan could not pick up any activity in the mass. Henceforth a PET scan was done that showed increased FDG uptake by the lesion and the level IV lymph node. The patient underwent wide excision of the mass with right functional neck dissection, along with removal with both sternal head of sternocleido-mastoid, the strap muscles and the surrounding fascia. Histopathology confirmed papillary thyroid carcinoma. Patient received post-operative radioactive iodine ablation and is healthy with no recurrence up to 30 months of follow up.

Discussion

The mechanisms for pre-sternal thyroid swelling are not understood due to paucity of cases. The mechanisms proposed are invasion of strap muscles and cervical linea alba and tumor cells spread anterior to sternum, truly ectopic thyroid tissue, de novo carcinogenesis in the embryonal remnants like the thyro-thymic residues, sequestered thyroid tissue which grows later or migration of thyroid cells, incomplete clearance at the time of primary surgery or intraoperative seeding.

Conclusion

Pre-sternal region masses of thyroid origin are very rare. A proper work up, suspicion for thyroid mass and array of tests will be required to come to a provisional diagnosis. Since the masses reported in literature were primarily malignant, any such mass may be treated on lines of malignancy with radical surgery.

Intracranial Hemorrhage in a Young Woman: An Unusual Initial Presentation of Undiagnosed Choriocarcinoma

Choriocarcinoma is an uncommon tumor. Undiagnosed choriocarcinoma initially presenting with intracranial hemorrhage in an apparently healthy female is rare and presents a diagnostic difficulty. The authors report a case presenting as intracranial hemorrhage of unsuspected choriocarcinoma. As the measurement of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) would have helped in the preoperative diagnosis, estimation of serum β-hCG levels is suggested in the diagnostic workup of a female of reproductive age group when radiological investigations are inconclusive. Craniotomy and excision of tumor followed by chemotherapy and radiotherapy may improve the outcome.

Vitamins for Cancer Prevention and Treatment: An Insight

Over a few decades a strong interlink between oxidative damage and cancer has been investigated by various scientists across the world on the basis of epidemiological observations of the effects of fruits and vegetables used in the diet for cancer patients. Primarily, Vitamin C, Vitamin D and Vitamin E are reported to be involved in the amelioration of side effects which occur in chemotherapy and radiation therapy of lungs, stomach, prostate, colorectal, gastric head and neck cancers. The vitamins acting as antioxidant adjuvants are found to have apoptotic and antiangiogenesis potential as well as inhibitory effects against metastasis in cancer cells. This chapter explicitly discusses the key aspects concerned with the vitamins in relation to cancer prevention and treatment. It describes vitamins and their natural resources, role of vitamins in the body, and vitamins as prime ingredients in the diet and their effects on cancer biology with reference to recent research reports. Moreover, this paper also includes the emerging potential of pharmaceutical advances to enhance bioavailability of the vitamins to cancer patients with improved safety and efficacy. Clinicians and researchers must mull over the nutritional requirements of individual cancer patient so as to treat cancer and increase life expectancy.

Intravesical gossypiboma: our experience and the need for stringent checklist and training!

We present our experience of two cases: one of a 28-year-old male patient who presented with recurrent episodes of urinary tract infection (UTI) with passage of pus flakes in urine and a history of open cystolithotomy about 10 months ago. The second patient was a 26-year-old woman who underwent bladder exploration for a retained Double-J stent about 10 months ago and presented with recurrent UTI. The first case was treated with open surgery and in the second case, the gauze piece was retrieved endoscopically.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.