Olive oil consumption is associated with lower cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among Italian adults: prospective results from the Moli-sani Study and analysis of potential biological mechanisms

BACKGROUND

Olive oil consumption has been reportedly associated with lower mortality rates, mostly from cardiovascular diseases, but its potential impact on cancer death remains controversial. Moreover, biological mechanisms possibly linking olive oil consumption to mortality outcomes remain unexplored.

METHODS

We longitudinally analysed data on 22,892 men and women from the Moli-sani Study in Italy (follow-up 13.1 y), to examine the association of olive oil consumption with mortality. Dietary data were collected at baseline (2005-2010) through a 188-item FFQ, and olive oil consumption was standardised to a 10 g tablespoon (tbsp) size. Diet quality was assessed through a Mediterranean diet score. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, also including diet quality, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The potential mediating role of inflammatory, metabolic, cardiovascular and renal biomarkers on the association between olive oil intake and mortality was evaluated on the basis of change-in-estimate and associated p values.

RESULTS

Multivariable HRs for all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular and other cause mortality associated with high (>3 tbsp/d) versus low (≤1.5 tbsp/d) olive oil consumption were 0.80 (0.69-0.94), 0.77 (0.59-0.99), 0.75 (0.58-0.97) and 0.97 (0.73-1.29), respectively. Taken together, the investigated biomarkers attenuated the association of olive oil consumption with all-cause and cancer mortality by 21.2% and 13.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher olive oil consumption was associated with lower cancer, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates, independent of overall diet quality. Known risk factors for chronic diseases only in part mediated such associations suggesting that other biological pathways are potentially involved in this relationship.

Blood-based biological ageing and red cell distribution width are associated with prevalent Parkinson's disease: findings from a large Italian population cohort

Background

Aging clocks tag the actual underlying age of an organism and its discrepancy with chronological age and have been reported to predict incident disease risk in the general population. However, the relationship with neurodegenerative risk and in particular with Parkinson's Disease (PD) remains unclear, with few discordant findings reporting associations with both incident and prevalent PD risk.

Objective

To clarify this relationship, we computed a common aging clock based on blood markers and tested the resulting discrepancy with chronological age (ΔPhenoAge) for association with both incident and prevalent PD risk.

Methods

In a large Italian population cohort - the Moli-sani study (N=23,437; age ≥ 35 years; 52% women) - we carried out both Cox Proportional Hazards regressions modelling ΔPhenoAge as exposure and incident PD as outcome, and linear models testing prevalent PD as exposure and ΔPhenoAge as outcome. All models were incrementally adjusted for age, sex, education level completed and other risk/protective factors previously associated with PD risk in the same cohort (prevalent dysthyroidism, hypertension, diabetes, use of oral contraceptives, exposure to paints, daily coffee intake and cigarette smoking).

Results

No significant association between incident PD risk (209 cases, median (IQR) follow-up time 11.19 (2.03) years) and PhenoAging was observed (Hazard Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.98 [0.71; 1.37]). However, a small but significant increase of ΔPhenoAge was observed in prevalent PD cases vs healthy subjects (β (Standard Error) = 1.39 (0.70)). An analysis of each component biomarker of PhenoAge revealed a significant positive association of prevalent PD status with red cell distribution width (RDW; β (SE) = 0.46 (0.18)). All the remaining markers did not show any significant evidence of association.

Conclusion

The reported evidence highlights systemic effects of prevalent PD status on biological aging and red cell distribution width. Further cohort and functional studies may help shedding a light on the related pathways altered at the organism level in prevalent PD, like red cells variability, inflammatory and oxidative stress mechanisms.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Endogenous thrombin potential and time-dependent thrombin generation parameters are independent risk factors for mortality in the general population

BACKGROUND

Thrombin generation (TG) is used as a global test of coagulation and is an indicator of thrombosis and bleeding risk. Until now, data on the association of TG and mortality are inconclusive.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the association between TG and mortality in the prospective Moli-sani cohort (n = 21 920).

METHODS

TG was measured using calibrated automated thrombinography using PPP-Reagent Low. Lag time (LT), endogenous thrombin potential (ETP), peak height, time-to-peak (TTP), and velocity index were quantified. The association of TG and mortality was studied by Cox regression and adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, smoking, contraceptives, and medical history (cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and cancer).

RESULTS

LT and TTP were 4.1 ± 1.0 minutes and 6.6 ± 1.5 minutes, on average. The peak height was 364 ± 88 nM, velocity index was 163 ± 63 nM/min, and ETP was 1721 ± 411 nM·min. ETP was negatively associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.92; P < .001). Subjects in the lowest quintile of the ETP (ETPQ1) had a 1.3-fold higher mortality rate. Additionally, a high TTP/LT ratio was negatively associated with mortality (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89; P = .003). Individuals in quintile 1 of the TTP/LT ratio had a 1.4-fold higher mortality rate compared with the remainder of the cohort. Subjects that were both in ETPQ1 and TTP/LTQ1 had a 1.8-fold higher mortality rate, regardless of whether they reported history of cardiovascular disease at baseline (HR, 1.61 [CI: 1.07-2.42]) or not (HR, 1.89 [CI: 1.51-2.36]).

CONCLUSION

Low ETP and TTP/LT ratios are independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in the general population.

High alpha-2-macroglobulin levels are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease events: A Moli-sani cohort study

BACKGROUND

α2-macroglobulin (α2M) is a versatile endopeptidase inhibitor that plays a role in cell growth, inflammation and coagulation. α2M is an inhibitor of key coagulation enzyme thrombin. Hypercoagulability due to an excess of thrombin production can cause thrombotic events. Therefore, we investigated the association of α2M levels and cardiovascular events in a subset of the general Italian population.

METHODS

We determined α2M levels in the baseline samples of a prospective cohort (n = 19,688; age: 55 ± 12 years; 47.8 % men) of the Moli-sani study and investigated the association with the cardiovascular events (n = 432, 2.2 %) in the median follow-up period of 4.3 years. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression and adjusted for a large panel of confounding factors.

RESULTS

α2M levels above the 90th percentile were significantly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events after full adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, BMI, oral contraceptive use, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes and history of cancer (HR: 1.36; CI: 1.06-1.74). Moreover, high α2M was associated with coronary heart disease (CHD; HR: 1.47; CI: 1.12-1.91), but not stroke. Stratification for CVD at baseline showed that high α2M levels are associated with CHD events in subjects without CVD at baseline (HR: 1.40; CI: 1.00-1.95) and subjects with CVD at baseline (HR: 1.58; CI: 1.02-2.44).

CONCLUSION

We show in a prospective cohort that high levels of α2M could be a risk factor for cardiovascular events, especially coronary heart disease events.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

The Moli-sani risk score, a new algorithm for measuring the global impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is preventable through interventions targeting modifiable factors. Most algorithms based on modifiable CV risk factors (CV-rf) have been developed in US populations and do not account for the role of diet. We aimed to assess an algorithm based on modifiable CV-rf including diet, using data from an Italian population.

METHODS

To derive the Moli-sani Risk Score (MRS), we used data on 16,656 men and women (age ≥ 35 y) from the population of the Moli-sani Study. The Risk-and-Prevention-Study, Italy (N = 8606) acted as external validation cohort and the Life's-Simple-7 score was used as benchmark. The MRS targeted at fatal or non-fatal CV events and included 9 common modifiable CV-rf.

RESULTS

After 8.1 years (median) of follow-up, 816 events occurred in the derivation cohort. The MRS was calculated as a weighted sum of its 9 components, with weights reflecting the strength of the association. In comparison with individuals in the first, those in the fourth quartile of the score had hazard ratio (HR) for CV events equal to 3.18 (95%CI: 2.54-3.97). One more point in the score was associated with 7% (6%-8%) and 4% (3%-5%) higher hazard of events in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The MRS performed better than the Life's Simple-7 for discrimination.

CONCLUSION

We propose the Moli-sani Risk Score, a validated, performing algorithm able to measure the combined impact that modifiable CV-rf have on CV risk. The score can be used to design preventive interventions, quantify the effectiveness of interventions, and compare different preventive strategies.

Rationale and design of the CV-PREVITAL study: an Italian multiple cohort randomised controlled trial investigating innovative digital strategies in primary cardiovascular prevention

INTRODUCTION

Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is of key importance in reducing morbidity, disability and mortality worldwide. Observational studies suggest that digital health interventions can be an effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk. However, evidence from large randomised clinical trials is lacking.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The CV-PREVITAL study is a multicentre, prospective, randomised, controlled, open-label interventional trial designed to compare the effectiveness of an educational and motivational mobile health (mHealth) intervention versus usual care in reducing CV risk. The intervention aims at improving diet, physical activity, sleep quality, psycho-behavioural aspects, as well as promoting smoking cessation and adherence to pharmacological treatment for CV risk factors. The trial aims to enrol approximately 80 000 subjects without overt CVDs referring to general practitioners' offices, community pharmacies or clinics of Scientific Institute for Research, Hospitalization and Health Care (Italian acronym IRCCS) affiliated with the Italian Cardiology Network. All participants are evaluated at baseline and after 12 months to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on short-term endpoints, namely improvement in CV risk score and reduction of major CV risk factors. Beyond the funded life of the study, a long-term (7 years) follow-up is also planned to assess the effectiveness of the intervention on the incidence of major adverse CV events. A series of ancillary studies designed to evaluate the effect of the mHealth intervention on additional risk biomarkers are also performed.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study received ethics approval from the ethics committee of the coordinating centre (Monzino Cardiology Center; R1256/20-CCM 1319) and from all other relevant IRBs and ethics committees. Findings are disseminated through scientific meetings and peer-reviewed journals and via social media. Partners are informed about the study's course and findings through regular meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05339841.

Habitual adherence to a traditional Mediterranean diet and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a longitudinal analysis

Evidence on habitual Mediterranean diet (MD) and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 is limited. 1,520 participants from the Moli-sani Study (2017-2020) were tested during January-September 2021 and adherence to MD was ascertained through the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS). SARS-CoV-2 infection cases were determined through serology, and previous clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 disease was self-reported. Results were presented as odd ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The MDS was not associated with the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR= 0.94; 95% CI: 0.83-1.06) and COVID-19 (OR= 0.82; 95% CI: 0.62-1.10) diagnosis. High consumption of cereals was associated with lower odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-1.00; for each 25 g/d increase). Likelihood of having being diagnosed with COVID-19 disease decreased in association with increasing olive oil intake (OR= 0.10; 95% CI: 0.01-0.79; for each additional 10 g/d), moderate alcohol consumption (OR= 0.18; 95% CI: 0.04-0.82) and higher intakes of fruits and nuts (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79-0.99). Our findings emphasise the adoption and maintenance of a balanced MD as a key strategy to reduce the risk of future SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19.

Association between BMI, RFM and mortality and potential mediators: Prospective findings from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND

Body mass index (BMI) is the most frequently used adiposity measure, yet it is unable to differentiate fat mass from lean mass. Relative fat mass (RFM) has been proposed as an alternative. This paper aims to study RFM and BMI association with mortality in a general Italian population and potential mediators of such association.

METHODS

20,587 individuals from the Moli-sani cohort were analysed (mean age = 54 ± 11, women = 52%, median follow up = 11.2 years, interquartile range = 1.96 years). Cox regressions were used to assess BMI, RFM, and their interactive association with mortality. Dose-response relationships were computed with spline regression, mediation analysis was performed. All analyses were separated for men and women.

RESULTS

Men and women with BMI > 35 kg/m² and men in the 4th quartile of RFM showed an independent association with mortality (HR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.30-2.26 BMI in men, HR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.01-1.85 BMI in women, HR = 1.37 CI 95% = 1.11-1.68 RFM in men), that was lost once adjusted for potential mediators. Cubic splines showed a U-shaped association for BMI in men and women, and for RFM in men. Mediation analysis showed that 46.5% of the association of BMI with mortality in men was mediated by glucose, C reactive protein, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), and cystatin C; 82.9% of the association of BMI in women was mediated by HOMA index, cystatin C and FEV1; lastly, 55% of RFM association with mortality was mediated by glucose, FEV1 and cystatin C. Regression models including BMI and RFM showed that RFM drives most of the risk in men, but is not predictive in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between anthropometric measures and mortality was U shaped and it was largely dependent on sex. Associations were mediated by glucose metabolism, renal and lung function. Public health interventions should mainly focus on people with severe obesity or impaired metabolic, renal, or respiratory function.

Association between the Inflammatory Potential of the Diet and Biological Aging: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 4510 Adults from the Moli-Sani Study Cohort

Chronological age (CA) may not accurately reflect the health status of an individual. Rather, biological age (BA) or hypothetical underlying "functional" age has been proposed as a relevant indicator of healthy aging. Observational studies have found that decelerated biological aging or Δage (BA-CA) is associated with a lower risk of disease and mortality. In general, CA is associated with low-grade inflammation, a condition linked to the risk of the incidence of disease and overall cause-specific mortality, and is modulated by diet. To address the hypothesis that diet-related inflammation is associated with Δage, a cross-sectional analysis of data from a sub-cohort from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010, Italy) was performed. The inflammatory potential of the diet was measured using the Energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII^TM) and a novel literature-based dietary inflammation score (DIS). A deep neural network approach based on circulating biomarkers was used to compute BA, and the resulting Δage was fit as the dependent variable. In 4510 participants (men 52.0%), the mean of CA (SD) was 55.6 y (±11.6), BA 54.8 y (±8.6), and Δage -0.77 (±7.7). In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increase in E-DII^TM and DIS scores led to an increase in Δage (β = 0.22; 95%CI 0.05, 0.38; β = 0.27; 95%CI 0.10, 0.44, respectively). We found interaction for DIS by sex and for E-DII^TM by BMI. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with accelerated biological aging, which likely leads to an increased long-term risk of inflammation-related diseases and mortality.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Abstract P450: The Moli-Sani Risk Score, a New Algorithm for Measuring the Global Impact of Nine Modifiable Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Introduction: Cardiovascular (CV) disease, the leading cause of death globally, is largely preventable through targeting modifiable risk factors. Scores of modifiable CV risk factors able to collect the combined effect of all the included components were mainly developed in US populations, or do not include nutritional aspects.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that an algorithm for measuring the global impact of nine modifiable CV risk factors, including dietary factors is useful in a Mediterranean population.

Methods: Data on 16 656 participants of the Moli-sani Study (age ≥45y, 47% men), Italy, were used. The Moli-sani Risk Score (MRS) was calculated as a weighted sum of smoking, adherence to Mediterranean diet, LDL and HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressure, glucose, physical activity and relative fat mass. A composite outcome of fatal or non-fatal CV events was used. The Risk-and-Prevention Study, Italy (N=8606) acted as external validation cohort and the Life's Simple 7 metric as benchmark.

Results: In the derivation cohort, 816 CV events occurred in 8.1 years (median) of follow-up. In multivariable Cox analysis adjusted for non-modifiable risk factors, 1-unit increase in the MRS was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) for CV events of 1.07 (95%CI: 1.06-1.08). In comparison with individuals in the first quartile, those in the fourth quartile of the MRS had HR=3.18 (2.54-3.97, Table). In the validation cohort, individuals in the fourth quartile reported a HR=1.69 (1.39-2.05). In comparison with the Life's Simple 7 metric, the MRS performed better in the derivation cohort and similarly in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: The Moli-sani Risk Score is a validated, replicable algorithm predictive of CV events, based on nine modifiable CV risk factors, well performing in a Mediterranean population. The MRS can be useful to evaluate the efficacy of preventive strategies, to design intervention schemes and to communicate effectiveness of a preventive action, increasing compliance to the strategy itself.

Abstract P218: Quality of Plant-Based Diets is Differently Associated With Cardiovascular Mortality: A Longitudinal Analysis From the Moli-Sani Study

Introduction: Vegetarian diets are characterized by the absence of some animal foods (e.g. red and processed meats), and a high consumption of plant-based foods. However, plant-based foods can include foods with varying nutritional value and divergent health effects.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that three different pro-vegetarian (PVG) food patterns defined as general (gPVG), healthful (hPVG) and unhealthful (uPVG) are differently associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in adult Italians. Established CVD risk factors ( e.g. blood lipids, inflammatory markers) were analyzed as potential biological mechanisms underpinning these associations.

Methods: Longitudinal analysis on 22,895 women and men (mean age 55±12 y) from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010). Food intake was assessed by a 188-item food frequency questionnaire. A pro-vegetarian food pattern was constructed by assigning positive scores to plant foods and reverse scores to animal foods. Both a healthful and an unhealthful pro-vegetarian food patterns, distinguishing between healthy ( e.g . fruits, vegetables, legumes) and less-healthy plant foods ( e.g . fruit juices, potatoes, sugary beverages), were built up. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the association between dietary exposures (quarters of) and mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each quarter, considering Q1 as the reference category.

Results: After a median follow-up of 12.2 y (272,960 person/years), a total of 792 CVD deaths were ascertained. In multivariable-adjusted analyses controlled for common known risk factors, higher adherence to a gPVG was not associated with CVD mortality (HR=0.92; 0.75-1.13 for Q4 vs. Q1). Increasing adherence to a hPVG was linked to lower risk of CVD mortality (HR=0.78; 0.62-0.98 for Q4 vs. Q1), whereas a higher uPVG led to an increased risk (HR=1.28; 1.04-1.57). Altered levels of subclinical inflammation ( i.e. C-reactive protein) accounted for 13.4% (p=0.012) of the association of the hPVG with CVD mortality.

Conclusions: In this large Italian general population, increasing adherence to a general pro-vegetarian food pattern was not associated with CVD mortality. Only participants preferring healthful vegetarian foods experienced a significant protection against CVD mortality risk, possibly through a favorable modulation of the inflammatory pathway. Consistently, a large dietary share of unhealthful vegetarian foods, mostly highly processed, was associated with increased risk of CVD mortality. We conclude that it is not sufficient to adopt a general vegetarian diet, since it is the quality of the plant food consumed that is critical to achieve vegetarian diet-related benefits on CVD mortality.

Machine-learning prediction model for acute skin toxicity after breast radiation therapy using spectrophotometry

Purpose

Radiation-induced skin toxicity is a common and distressing side effect of breast radiation therapy (RT). We investigated the use of quantitative spectrophotometric markers as input parameters in supervised machine learning models to develop a predictive model for acute radiation toxicity.

Methods and materials

One hundred twenty-nine patients treated for adjuvant whole-breast radiotherapy were evaluated. Two spectrophotometer variables, i.e. the melanin (I_M) and erythema (I_E) indices, were used to quantitatively assess the skin physical changes. Measurements were performed at 4-time intervals: before RT, at the end of RT and 1 and 6 months after the end of RT. Together with clinical covariates, melanin and erythema indices were correlated with skin toxicity, evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) guidelines. Binary group classes were labeled according to a RTOG cut-off score of ≥ 2. The patient's dataset was randomly split into a training and testing set used for model development/validation and testing (75%/25% split). A 5-times repeated holdout cross-validation was performed. Three supervised machine learning models, including support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree analysis (CART) and logistic regression (LR), were employed for modeling and skin toxicity prediction purposes.

Results

Thirty-four (26.4%) patients presented with adverse skin effects (RTOG ≥2) at the end of treatment. The two spectrophotometric variables at the beginning of RT (I_M,T0 and I_E,T0), together with the volumes of breast (PTV2) and boost surgical cavity (PTV1), the body mass index (BMI) and the dose fractionation scheme (FRAC) were found significantly associated with the RTOG score groups (p<0.05) in univariate analysis. The diagnostic performances measured by the area-under-curve (AUC) were 0.816, 0.734, 0.714, 0.691 and 0.664 for IM, IE, PTV2, PTV1 and BMI, respectively. Classification performances reported precision, recall and F1-values greater than 0.8 for all models. The SVM classifier using the RBF kernel had the best performance, with accuracy, precision, recall and F-score equal to 89.8%, 88.7%, 98.6% and 93.3%, respectively. CART analysis classified patients with I_M,T0 ≥ 99 to be associated with RTOG ≥ 2 toxicity; subsequently, PTV1 and PTV2 played a significant role in increasing the classification rate. The CART model provided a very high diagnostic performance of AUC=0.959.

Conclusions

Spectrophotometry is an objective and reliable tool able to assess radiation induced skin tissue injury. Using a machine learning approach, we were able to predict grade RTOG ≥2 skin toxicity in patients undergoing breast RT. This approach may prove useful for treatment management aiming to improve patient quality of life.

Association of nutritional glycaemic indices with global DNA methylation patterns: results from the Moli-sani cohort

BACKGROUND

High dietary glycaemic index (GI) and load (GL) have been associated with increased risk of various cardiometabolic conditions. Among the molecular potential mechanisms underlying this relationship, DNA methylation has been studied, but a direct link between high GI and/or GL of diet and global DNA methylation levels has not been proved yet. We analyzed the associations between GI and GL and global DNA methylation patterns within an Italian population.

RESULTS

Genomic DNA methylation (5mC) and hydroxymethylation (5hmC) levels were measured in 1080 buffy coat samples from participants of the Moli-sani study (mean(SD) = 54.9(11.5) years; 52% women) via ELISA. A 188-item Food Frequency Questionnaire was used to assess food intake and dietary GI and GL for each participant were calculated. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the associations between dietary GI and GL and global 5mC and 5hmC levels, as well as the proportion of effect explained by metabolic and inflammatory markers. We found negative associations of GI with both 5mC (β (SE) = - 0.073 (0.027), p = 0.007) and 5hmC (- 0.084 (0.030), p = 0.006), and of GL with 5mC (- 0.14 (0.060), p = 0.014). Circulating biomarkers did not explain the above-mentioned associations. Gender interaction analyses revealed a significant association of the gender-x-GL interaction with 5mC levels, with men showing an inverse association three times as negative as in women (interaction β (SE) = - 0.16 (0.06), p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that global DNA methylation and hydroxymethylation patterns represent a biomarker of carbohydrate intake. Based on the differential association of GL with 5mC between men and women, further gender-based separate approaches are warranted.

Increased Adherence to a Mediterranean Diet Is Associated with Reduced Low-Grade Inflammation after a 12.7-Year Period: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

There is little knowledge on the association of changes over time in adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) with changes in modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and of markers of low-grade inflammation.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between long-term changes in MD adherence and concurrent changes in established CVD risk factors and in markers of low-grade inflammation among adult Italians.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study was conducted. Dietary and health data were obtained both at baseline (2005-2010) and at follow-up (2017-2020). Adherence to the MD was estimated by a Mediterranean Diet Score ranging from zero to nine points, and the exposure was change in this score measured after a median 12.7-year period.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

This study included a subgroup of 897 men and 1,126 women aged ≥35 years at enrolment in the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in two composite z scores, including nine established CVD risk factors (eg, serum lipid levels and blood pressure) and four inflammatory markers (including C-reactive protein), respectively, were measured both at enrolment and after the same 12.7-year period.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models were used.

RESULTS

In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, an increased Mediterranean Diet Score over time was associated with decreased levels in the Inflammatory score (β = -0.372, 95% CI -0.720 to -0.025), but had little or no influence on the CVD risk score (β = -0.200, 95% CI -0.752 to 0.351), compared with individuals who had decreased their MD adherence. Among individual food groups/nutrients included in the Mediterranean Diet Score, an increased intake of monounsaturated over saturated fats over time was associated with lower CVD Risk Score, whereas increased consumption of cereals was inversely linked to the Inflammatory Score, compared with the reduced consumption group.

CONCLUSIONS

An increased adherence to a traditional MD over time was associated with reduced low-grade inflammation. These findings suggest the potential of a traditional Mediterranean eating pattern to help reduce the long-term risk of inflammation-related chronic diseases in an ageing population.

Incremental monounsaturated to saturated fat ratio and fibre consumption is associated with a reduction in a composite score of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors: Prospective results from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Unsaturated fats, fibre-rich foods and polyphenols are distinctive features of a traditional Mediterranean diet and have pleiotropic properties possibly contributing to reduce the long-term risk of non-communicable diseases and mortality associated with this diet. We aimed to evaluate whether changes over time in dietary fats, fibre and polyphenols consumption are associated with modifications in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors.

METHODS

The analytic sample consists of a sub-cohort of 2023 men and women enrolled in the Moli-sani Study (n = 24,325). Dietary and health data were obtained both at baseline (2005-2010) and at re-examination (2017-2020). The exposures were changes in dietary fats, fibre and polyphenols consumption measured after 12.7 years (median), and the outcome was change in a composite score including 13 modifiable CVD risk factors (e.g., blood lipids, C-reactive protein), measured both at enrolment and after the 12.7 years period.

RESULTS

In multivariable-adjusted analysis including lifestyles, sociodemographic and clinical factors, an incremental intake of the ratio of monounsaturated to saturated fats or of fibre was associated with a reduction in the composite score of CVD risk factors (β = -0.086; 95%CI -0.150, -0.021 and β = -0.051; 95%CI -0.091, -0.012, respectively). Change in polyphenol intake was not associated with a substantial variation in the CVD risk score (p = 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

An incremental consumption over time of monounsaturated versus saturated fats and of fibre was associated with an improvement in modifiable CVD risk factors as reflected by a composite score.

Fibrinogen levels in relation to colorectal cancer onset: A nested case-cohort study from the Moli-sani cohort

Background

Patients with cancer are commonly characterized by abnormalities in laboratory coagulation tests, underlying a subclinical hypercoagulable condition. Due to the involvement of the hemostatic system in cancer patients, some of its biomarkers, such as fibrinogen, could be a useful tool in predicting cancer risk. We performed a case-cohort study to evaluate the relationship among fibrinogen levels and colorectal cancer (CRC).

Methods

In the framework of Moli-sani Study (N = 24,325, enrolled 2005-2010) a subcohort of 1,290 individuals (55.0% women; mean age 55.0 ± 12.0 years) was selected and compared with 126 CRC cases identified during a follow-up of 4.3 years. Incident cases of colorectal cancer were ascertained by direct linkage with hospital discharge forms according to the International Classification of Disease (ICD-9-CM) codes: 153-154. Events were validated through medical records and confirmed by histological reports. Fibrinogen levels were measured in frozen citrated plasma samples. Hazard Ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), adjusted by relevant covariates were estimated by a Cox regression model using Prentice method.

Results

Individuals with levels of fibrinogen ≥400 mg/dL had a higher hazard to develop colorectal cancer when compared to those with lower levels after adjustment for sex and age (HR: 1.81; 95% CI 1.12-2.92). Additional adjustment for CRC family history, income, physical activity, diabetes medication and hypercholesterolemia did not modify the result (HR: 1.91; 95% CI 1.15-3.17). Analyses stratified by age and sex showed a most evident association in elderly (HR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.10-4.81) and in women (HR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.08-4.81). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the main findings, showing independence from a potential role of confounding by a large panel of biomarkers, including inflammation and hemostasis factors.

Conclusion

Our results, based on a case-cohort study from a general adult population apparently free from any cancer during the recruitment, showed that fibrinogen levels ≥400 mg/dL were positively and independently associated with CRC, suggesting that this glycoprotein could be a potential biomarker for this type of cancer and supporting the "common soil hypothesis" in the pathophysiology of cardiovascular disease and tumors.

Low antithrombin levels are associated with low risk of cardiovascular death but are a risk factor for cancer mortality

Background

Thrombosis is common in subjects suffering from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer. Hypercoagulation plays a pivotal role in the pathophysiology of thrombosis. Therefore, the inactivation of thrombin, the key enzyme in coagulation, is tightly regulated via antithrombin (AT). AT deficiency is related to thrombosis and cardiovascular death. In this study we investigated the association between AT levels and mortality, in particularly cardiovascular-related and cancer-related death in the general population.

Methods

We studied the association of AT levels and mortality in a prospective cohort sampled from the general Italian population (n = 19,676). AT levels were measured in the baseline samples, and mortality was recorded during a median follow-up period of 8.2 years. Cox regression was performed to investigate the association of all-cause, CVD-related and cancer-related mortality with variations in AT levels.

Results

In total, 989 subjects died during follow-up, of which 373 subjects of CVD and 353 of cancer-related causes. Cox analysis revealed that, after adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, history of cardiovascular disease, history of cancer, vitamin K antagonists, antiplatelet medication, heparin and oral contraceptives AT levels were not associated with all-cause mortality (HRQ1vsQ5: 0.92, 95% CI:0.74–1.15). Interestingly, the risk of CVD-related mortality was reduced in subjects with low AT levels compared to subjects with higher AT levels, after adjustment for age and sex and other confounders did not change the association (HRQ1vsQ5: 0.64, 95% CI:0.44–0.91). Moreover, low AT levels were associated with increased cancer mortality in a fully adjusted model (HRQ1vsQ2-5: 1.26, 95% CI:0.88–1.81).

Conclusions

Low AT levels are associated to a lower risk of fatal cardiovascular events in the general population, regardless of age, sex and medication use. In contrast, low AT levels are associated with lower cancer survival. For the first time we show that AT levels lower than the normal range in the general population, even before the development or diagnosis of cancer, are associated with an elevated risk of cancer death.

Joint association of food nutritional profile by Nutri-Score front-of-pack label and ultra-processed food intake with mortality: Moli-sani prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To jointly analyse two food dimensions, the Food Standards Agency Nutrient Profiling System (FSAm-NPS), used to derive the Nutri-Score front-of-pack label, and the NOVA classification in relation to mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Moli-sani Study, Italy 2005-10.

PARTICIPANTS

22 895 participants (mean age 55 (SD 12) years; 48% men).

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Associations between dietary exposures and mortality risk, assessed using multivariable cause specific Cox proportional hazard models controlled for known risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 2205 deaths occurred during 272 960 person years of follow-up. In the highest quarter of the FSAm-NPS index compared with the lowest quarter, multivariable adjusted hazard ratios for all cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.35; absolute risk difference 4.3%, 95% confidence interval 1.4% to 7.2%) and 1.32 (1.06 to 1.64; 2.6%, 0.3% to 4.9%), respectively. The hazard ratios were 1.19 (1.05 to 1.36; absolute risk difference 9.7%, 5.0% to 14.3%) and 1.27 (1.02 to 1.58; 5.0%, 1.2% to 8.8%), respectively, for all cause and cardiovascular mortality when the two extreme categories of ultra-processed food intake were compared. When these two indices were analysed jointly, the magnitude of the association of the FSAm-NPS dietary index with all cause and cardiovascular mortality was attenuated by 22.3% and 15.4%, respectively, whereas mortality risks associated with high ultra-processed food intake were not altered.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with the lowest quality diet, as measured using the FSAm-NPS dietary index (underpinning the Nutri-Score), and the highest ultra-processed food consumption (NOVA classification) were at the highest risk for all cause and cardiovascular mortality. A significant proportion of the higher mortality risk associated with an elevated intake of nutrient poor foods was explained by a high degree of food processing. In contrast, the relation between a high ultra-processed food intake and mortality was not explained by the poor quality of these foods.

Increased BMI and Blood Lipids Are Associated With a Hypercoagulable State in the Moli-sani Cohort

The coagulation system can be assessed by the thrombin generation (TG) assay, and increased TG peak height, endogenous thrombin potential (ETP), and velocity index are associated with an increased risk of thrombosis. Obesity had been reported to increase TG and is associated with dyslipidemia, which also predisposes to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the effect of the blood lipid profile on TG has not been studied extensively. To gain more insight into the associations of TG, body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile, we studied TG in relation to these parameters in a large Italian population cohort, the Moli-sani study (N = 22,546; age ≥ 35 years; 48% men). TG was measured in plasma samples collected at the enrollment of subjects in the Moli-sani study. TG was triggered with 1 or 5 pM tissue factor, and TG parameters lag time, peak, ETP, time-to-peak (TTP) and velocity index (VI). Additionally, thrombomodulin was added to assess the function of the activated protein C system during TG. In both women and men, overweight (BMI 25–30 kg/m²) and obesity (BMI > 30 kg/m²) were significantly associated with higher ETP, peak and VI (all p < 0.001). High total cholesterol, triglycerides and LDL-cholesterol levels were significantly associated with increased ETP and peak (all p < 0.001). Linear regression analysis revealed that the ETP is positively associated with both plasma LDL and HDL cholesterol levels, whereas the velocity index is positively associated with HDL cholesterol. Additionally, ETP, peak and VI were significantly associated with the plasma triglycerides content. In conclusion, our study shows significant associations of high BMI and blood lipid levels with increased TG parameters, and this hypercoagulability may partly explain the increased risk of CVD in individuals with obesity and/or dyslipidemia.

Role of leukocytes, gender, and symptom domains in the influence of depression on hospitalization and mortality risk: Findings from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND

Major depressive disorder is a mental illness associated with chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease (CVD). Circulating inflammation has been proposed as a potential mechanism underlying this link, although the role of specific biomarkers, gender, and symptom domains is not well elucidated.

METHODS

We performed multivariable Cox regressions of first hospitalization/all-cause mortality and CVD, ischemic heart (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) causes vs. depression severity in an Italian population cohort (N = 13,191; age ≥ 35 years; 49.3% men; 4,856 hospitalizations and 471 deaths, median follow-up 7.28 and 8.24 years, respectively). In models adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, we estimated the proportion of association explained by C-reactive protein (CRP), platelet count, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR), and white blood cell count (WBC). Gender-by-depression interaction and gender-stratified analyses were performed. Associations of polychoric factors tagging somatic and cognitive symptoms with incident clinical risks were also tested, as well as the proportion explained by a composite index of circulating inflammation (INFLA score).

RESULTS

Significant proportions of the influence of depression on clinical risks were explained by CRP (4.8% on IHD hospitalizations), GLR (11% on all-cause mortality), and WBC (24% on IHD/CeVD hospitalizations). Gender-by-depression interaction was significantly associated only with all-cause mortality (p = 0.03), with moderate depression showing a + 60% increased risk in women, but not in men. Stable associations of somatic, but not of cognitive, symptoms with increased hospitalization risk were observed (+ 16% for all causes, + 14% for CVD causes), with INFLA score explaining small but significant proportions of these associations (2.5% for all causes, 8.6% for IHD causes).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of cellular components of inflammation, gender, and somatic depressive symptoms in the link between depression and clinical (especially CVD) risks, pointing to the existence of additional pathways through which depression may play a detrimental effect on the cardiovascular system.

Ultra-processed food intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in individuals with cardiovascular disease: the Moli-sani Study

AIMS 

To evaluate the association of ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and mortality among individuals with history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and analyse some biological pathways possibly relating UPF intake to death.

METHODS AND RESULTS 

Longitudinal analysis on 1171 men and women (mean age: 67 ± 10 years) with history of CVD, recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-10, Italy) and followed for 10.6 years (median). Food intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. UPF was defined using the NOVA classification according to degree of processing and categorized as quartiles of the ratio (%) between UPF (g/day) and total food consumed (g/day). The mediating effects of 18 inflammatory, metabolic, cardiovascular, and renal biomarkers were evaluated using a logistic regression model within a counterfactual framework. In multivariable-adjusted Cox analyses, higher intake of UPF (Q4, ≥11.3% of total food), as opposed to the lowest (Q1, UPF <4.7%), was associated with higher hazards of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.91) and CVD mortality (HR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.07-2.55). A linear dose-response relationship of 1% increment in UPF intake with all-cause and CVD mortality was also observed. Altered levels of cystatin C explained 18.3% and 16.6% of the relation between UPF (1% increment in the diet) with all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION 

A diet rich in UPF is associated with increased hazards of all-cause and CVD mortality among individuals with prior cardiovascular events, possibly through an altered renal function. Elevated UPF intake represents a major public health concern in secondary CVD prevention.

Fine-grained investigation of the relationship between human nutrition and global DNA methylation patterns

PURPOSE

Nutrition is an important, modifiable, environmental factor affecting human health by modulating epigenetic processes, including DNA methylation (5mC). Numerous studies investigated the association of nutrition with global and gene-specific DNA methylation and evidences on animal models highlighted a role in DNA hydroxymethylation (5hmC) regulation. However, a more comprehensive analysis of different layers of nutrition in association with global levels of 5mC and 5hmC is lacking. We investigated the association between global levels of 5mC and 5hmC and human nutrition, through the stratification and analysis of dietary patterns into different nutritional layers: adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD), main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake.

METHODS

ELISA technique was used to measure global 5mC and 5hmC levels in 1080 subjects from the Moli-sani cohort. Food intake during the 12 months before enrolment was assessed using the semi-quantitative EPIC food frequency questionnaire. Complementary approaches involving both classical statistics and supervised machine learning analyses were used to investigate the associations between global 5mC and 5hmC levels and adherence to Mediterranean diet, main food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients intake.

RESULTS

We found that global DNA methylation, but not hydroxymethylation, was associated with daily intake of zinc and vitamin B3. Random Forests algorithms predicting 5mC and 5hmC through intakes of food groups, macronutrients and micronutrients revealed a significant contribution of zinc, while vitamin B3 was reported among the most influential features.

CONCLUSION

We found that nutrition may affect global DNA methylation, suggesting a contribution of micronutrients previously implicated as cofactors in methylation pathways.

Platelet Distribution Width Is Associated with P-Selectin Dependent Platelet Function: Results from the Moli-Family Cohort Study

Defined as an index of platelet size heterogeneity, the platelet distribution width (PDW) is still a poorly characterized marker of platelet function in (sub)clinical disease. We presently validated PDW as a marker of P-selectin dependent platelet activation in the Moli-family cohort. Platelet-bound P-selectin and platelet/leukocyte mixed aggregates were measured by flow cytometry in freshly collected venous blood, both before and after in vitro platelet activation, and coagulation time was assessed in unstimulated and LPS- or TNFα-stimulated whole blood. Closure Times (CT) were measured in a Platelet Function Analyzer (PFA)-100. Multivariable linear mixed effect regression models (with age, sex and platelet count as fixed and family structure as random effect) revealed PDW to be negatively associated with platelet P-selectin, platelet/leukocyte aggregates and von Willebrand factor (VWF), and positively with PFA-100 CT, and LPS- and TNF-α-stimulated coagulation times. With the exception of VWF, all relationships were sex-independent. In contrast, no association was found between mean platelet volume (MPV) and these variables. PDW seems a simple, useful marker of ex vivo and in vitro P-selectin dependent platelet activation. Investigations of larger cohorts will define the usefulness of PDW as a risk predictor of thrombo-inflammatory conditions where activated platelets play a contributing role.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

Exploring domains, clinical implications and environmental associations of a deep learning marker of biological ageing

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have been recently developed for the estimation of Biological Age (BA), the hypothetical underlying age of an organism, which can differ from its chronological age (CA). Although promising, these population-specific algorithms warrant further characterization and validation, since their biological, clinical and environmental correlates remain largely unexplored. Here, an accurate DNN was trained to compute BA based on 36 circulating biomarkers in an Italian population (N = 23,858; age ≥ 35 years; 51.7% women). This estimate was heavily influenced by markers of metabolic, heart, kidney and liver function. The resulting Δage (BA-CA) significantly predicted mortality and hospitalization risk for all and specific causes. Slowed biological aging (Δage < 0) was associated with higher physical and mental wellbeing, healthy lifestyles (e.g. adherence to Mediterranean diet) and higher socioeconomic status (educational attainment, household income and occupational status), while accelerated aging (Δage > 0) was associated with smoking and obesity. Together, lifestyles and socioeconomic variables explained ~48% of the total variance in Δage, potentially suggesting the existence of a genetic basis. These findings validate blood-based biological aging as a marker of public health in adult Italians and provide a robust body of knowledge on its biological architecture, clinical implications and potential environmental influences.

Abstract 025: Mediterranean Diet Trajectories And Changes In Cardiovascular Risk Factors And Inflammation Markers Over A 12.7 Years Follow-up: Prospective Findings From The Moli-sani Study Cohort

Introduction: Trends in diet quality worldwide indicate a progressive decline in adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD), but data on longitudinal individual-level changes are still limited, especially in Mediterranean countries.

Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis of an association, in a Mediterranean population, between life course trajectories in MD and concurrent long-term modifications of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inflammatory markers.

Methods: We followed 2,107 men and women (mean age at baseline 54.6±8.8 y) from the Moli-sani Study (Italy) between 2005 and 2020. Dietary data were measured at baseline and at a re-examination (after an average of 12.7 years) and were collected by a 188-item food frequency questionnaire. Adherence to MD was estimated by a Mediterranean diet score based on 9 food groups, ranging from 0 to 9 points. MD trajectories were identified as downward (-6 to -2 points in MDS), relatively stable (-1 to 0) and upward (1 to 6). Inflammation was measured by both an INFLA-score including C-reactive protein and cellular markers ( e.g ., leukocyte count) and a CYTO-score including 14 selected analytes (cytokines, chemokines and growth factors). Regression models were used to examine changes in MDS, CVD risk factors and inflammation markers within the same period.

Results: Overall, adherence to MD decreased by an average of 6.5% over follow-up. As opposed to the downward, an upward trajectory in MD adherence was inversely associated with the INFLA-score (β=-0.177; 95%CI -0.296, -0.058) and the CYTO-score (β=-0.311; 95%CI -0.548, -0.073). No significant changes were observed for CVD risk factors, with the exception of an increase in blood glucose (β=0.121; 95%CI 0.001, 0.241) and systolic blood pressure (β=0.110; 95%CI 0.003, 0.217) associated with an upward MD trajectory.

Conclusions: In a large sample of Mediterranean individuals, diet quality, as reflected by adherence to an MD, has been declining over the last decade. However, in the group of subjects who improved their adherence to an MD, a significant reduction of markers of an inflammatory status was documented, possibly predisposing to a better duration and quality of life.

Dietary Polyphenol Intake Is Associated with Biological Aging, a Novel Predictor of Cardiovascular Disease: Cross-Sectional Findings from the Moli-Sani Study

Biological aging, or the discrepancy between biological and chronological age of a subject (Δage), has been associated with a polyphenol-rich Mediterranean diet and represents a new, robust indicator of cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to disentangle the relationship of dietary polyphenols and total antioxidant capacity with Δage in a cohort of Italians. A cross-sectional analysis was performed on a sub-cohort of 4592 subjects (aged ≥ 35 y; 51.8% women) from the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010). Food intake was recorded by a 188-item food-frequency questionnaire. The polyphenol antioxidant content (PAC)-score was constructed to assess the total dietary content of polyphenols. Total antioxidant capacity was measured in foods by these assays: trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC), total radical-trapping antioxidant parameter (TRAP) and ferric reducing-antioxidant power (FRAP). A deep neural network, based on 36 circulating biomarkers, was used to compute biological age and the resulting Δage, which was tested as outcome in multivariable-adjusted linear regressions. Δage was inversely associated with the PAC-score (β = -0.31; 95%CI -0.39, -0.24) but not with total antioxidant capacity of the diet. A diet rich in polyphenols, by positively contributing to deceleration of the biological aging process, may exert beneficial effects on the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and possibly of bone health.

The CASSIOPEA Study (Economic Crisis and Adherence to the Mediterranean diet: poSSIble impact on biOmarkers of inflammation and metabolic PhEnotypes in the cohort of the Moli-sAni Study): Rationale, design and characteristics of participants

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The CASSIOPEA Study was designed to evaluate whether the economic downturn during the late 2000s was a contributing factor to the observed decrease in adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study protocol consists of two steps: A) recall of 7406 men and women who, between 2005 and 2006, had been randomly recruited in the Moli-sani Study from the general population of Molise, to assess possible economic hardship (EH) related to the economic crisis initiated in 2007; B) re-examination, between 2017 and 2020, of available subjects identified in Step 1 as poorly or harder hit by EH to test the hypothesis that EH is associated with a decrease in MD adherence, possibly resulting in increased inflammation. The results of Step 1 are reported here. From the initial sample of individuals re-examined after 12.6 years (median; IQR = 12.1-13.0 y), 3646 were finally analysed. An Economic Hardship Score (EHS; range 0-14) was obtained by scoring three domains: 1) change in employment status; 2) financial hardship and 3) financial hardship for health expenditures. Overall, 37.8% of the sample reported high EHS (≥3), whilst 32% scored 0 (no EH). Those with high EHS were prevalently women and younger, with low socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

High economic hardship was prevalently reported by weaker socioeconomic groups. Longitudinal analysis (step 2) will examine whether the economic crisis had an effect on adherence to Mediterranean diet with consequent potential impact on inflammation, one of the main biological pathways linking MD to health outcomes. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT03119142.

Egg consumption and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in an Italian adult population

Purpose

Dietary guidelines recommend to limit egg consumption to 4 servings per week but the relation between egg intake and health outcomes is still controversial. To evaluate the association of egg consumption and mortality risk in Italian adults and to investigate nutritional factors and serum lipids as potentially explaining such associations.

Methods

Longitudinal analysis on 20,562 men and women aged ≥ 35y, free from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer belonging to the Moli-sani Study cohort (enrolled 2005–2010) followed up for a median of 8.2 years.

Results

In multivariable-adjusted analysis as compared to low intake (> 0 ≤ 1 egg/week), eating > 4 eggs/week led to an increased risk of all-cause (Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.50; 95%CI 1.13–1.99), CVD (HR = 1.75; 1.07–2.87) and cancer mortality (HR = 1.52; 0.99–2.33). Similarly, an intake of 2–4 eggs/week was associated with higher all-cause (HR = 1.22; 1.01–1.46) and CVD mortality risk (HR = 1.43; 1.03–1.97). An increase of 1 egg per week was associated with higher mortality risk among high-risk individuals, such as those with hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. Dietary cholesterol explained about 43.0% and 39.3% (p values < 0.0001) of the association of eggs with all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively, while serum lipids (e.g., total cholesterol) accounted for a small proportion of egg-mortality relation.

Conclusions

Among Italian adults, high egg consumption leads to an increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, with the risk being evident even at the recommended intake of 2–4 eggs per week. A substantial part of this association was likely due to the egg contribution to dietary cholesterol. Our findings suggest limiting the consumption of eggs in the diet and these results should be considered in the development of dietary guidelines and updates.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00394-021-02536-w.

Life Course Socioeconomic Status and Risk of Hospitalization for Heart Failure or Atrial Fibrillation in The Moli-Sani Study Cohort

We investigated the association of cumulative socioeconomic disadvantage (CSD) and socioeconomic (SES) trajectories across life course with the risk of first hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation (AF) and tested some biological mechanisms in explaining such associations. Longitudinal analysis on 21,756 HF- and AF-free subjects recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010; Italy) and followed up for 8.2 years. CSD was computed using childhood SES, education and adulthood SES indicators, and the same were used to define overall trajectories. High disadvantage across life course (CSD≥8) posed subjects at increased risk of HF (Hazard ratio [HR]=2.58; 95%CI 1.78, 3.74) or AF (HR=1.57;1.05,2.33), as compared to low CSD. All explanatory factors accounted for 18.5% and 24% of the excess of HF and AF risks, respectively, associated with CSD. For subjects with low childhood SES, advancements in education lowered risk of HF (HR=0.70;0.48, 1.02) or AF (HR=0.50;0.28, 0.89), whereas achievements of adulthood SES were unlikely to contribute to disease reduction. In conclusion, a life-course disadvantaged SES is an important predictor of first hospitalization for HF and AF; known risk factors partially explained the SES-disease gradient. Upwardly mobile groups are likely to mitigate the effect of poor childhood circumstances especially through educational advancement.

Ultra-processed food consumption is associated with increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

Consumption of ultra-processed food (UPF) is gaining growing attention in relation to disease/mortality risk, but less is known on the main nutritional factors or biological mechanisms potentially underlying such associations.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the association between UPF and mortality risk in a large sample of the Italian adult population and test which nutritional factors were on the pathway of this relation. Established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) were analyzed as potential biological mechanisms linking UPF to mortality.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis was conducted on 22,475 men and women (mean ± SD age: 55 ± 12 y) recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010, Italy) and followed for 8.2 y. Food intake was assessed using a semiquantitative FFQ. UPF was defined using the NOVA classification according to degree of processing, and UPF intakes were categorized as quartiles of the ratio (%) of UPF (g/d) to total food consumed (g/d).

RESULTS

Individuals reporting the highest intake of UPF (Q4, >14.6% of total food), as opposed to the lowest (Q1, UPF < 6.6%), experienced increased risks of CVD mortality (HR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.03), death from ischemic heart disease (IHD)/cerebrovascular disease (HR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.09), and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.46). High sugar content explained 36.3% of the relation of UPF with IHD/cerebrovascular mortality, whereas other nutritional factors (e.g., saturated fats) were unlikely to be on the pathway. Biomarkers of renal function accounted for 20.1% of the association of UPF with all-cause mortality, and 12.0% for that of UPF with CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of UPF in the diet was associated with increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality, partly through its high dietary content of sugar. Some established biomarkers of CVD risk were likely to be on the pathway of such associations. These findings should serve as an incentive for limiting consumption of UPF, and encouraging natural or minimally processed foods, as several national nutritional policies recommend.

Daily Coffee Drinking Is Associated with Lower Risks of Cardiovascular and Total Mortality in a General Italian Population: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

An inverse relationship between coffee intake and mortality has been observed in several population cohorts, but rarely within Mediterranean countries. Moreover, the biological pathways mediating such an association remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the associations between coffee consumption and total and cause-specific mortality and examined the mediating roles of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), high-sensitivity Troponin I, blood glucose, lipid metabolism, and selected biomarkers of inflammation and renal function.

METHODS

We longitudinally analyzed data on 20,487 men and women (35-94 years old at baseline) in the Moli-sani Study, a prospective cohort established in 2005-2010. Individuals were free from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer and were followed-up for a median of 8.3 years. Dietary data were collected by a 188-item semi-quantitative FFQ. Coffee intake was standardized to a 30-mL Italian espresso cup size. HRs with 95% CIs were calculated by multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

In comparison with no/rare coffee consumption (up to 1 cup/d), HRs for all-cause mortality across categories of coffee consumption (>1 to ≤2, >2 to ≤3, >3 to ≤4 and >4 cups/d) were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.65-0.95), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.69-1.03), 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.92), and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.62-1.12), respectively. For CVD mortality, a nonlinear (P for non-linearity = 0.021) J-shaped association was found (magnitude of the relative reduction = 37%; nadir at 3-4 cups/d). Circulating levels of NTproBNP explained up to 26.4% of the association between coffee and all-cause mortality, while systolic blood pressure was likely to be on the pathway between coffee and CVD mortality, although to a lesser extent.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort of Italian adults, moderate consumption (3-4 cups/d) of Italian-style coffee was associated with lower risks of all-cause and, specifically, of CVD mortality. Among the known biomarkers investigated here, NTproBNP likely mediates the relationship between coffee intake and all-cause mortality.

Combined influence of depression severity and low-grade inflammation on incident hospitalization and mortality risk in Italian adults

BACKGROUND

Depression and low-grade systemic inflammation are associated risk factors for hospitalizations and mortality, although the nature of this relationship is under-investigated.

METHODS

We performed multivariable Cox regressions of first hospitalization/mortality for all and specific causes vs depression severity, in an Italian population cohort (N=13,176; age≥35 years; 49.4% men), incrementally adjusting for sociodemographic, health and lifestyle factors. We tested potential mediation, additive and interactive effects of INFLA-score, a composite circulating inflammation index, and potential concurrent mediations of main lifestyles and chronic conditions.

RESULTS

Over 4,856 hospitalizations (median follow-up 7.28 years), we observed an increased incident risk of events by 24% (CI=17-32%) and 59% (30-90%) for moderate and severe depression, which also showed a 125% (33-281%) increased risk of all-cause mortality (over 471 deaths, 8.24 years). These remained stable after adjustment for lifestyles, health conditions and INFLA-score, which explained 2.1%, 7.6%, 16.3% and 8%, 14.9% and 12% of depression influence on hospitalizations and mortality risk, respectively. These proportions remained substantially stable after reciprocal adjustments. INFLA-score showed significant additive (but not interactive) effects on both hospitalizations and mortality risk.

LIMITATIONS

Depression severity was defined using a sub-version of Patient Health Questionnaire 9, which was validated here. Directionality links among exposures could not be established since they were collected simultaneously.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest a combined influence of depression and low-grade inflammation on health, which is partly intertwined and dependent on lifestyles and chronic conditions. This suggests the existence of pathways other than inflammation through which depression may play its detrimental effect.

NMU DNA methylation in blood is associated with metabolic and inflammatory indices: results from the Moli-sani study

Neuromedin U (NMU) is a neuropeptide involved in gut-brain axis, energy balance and immune response. We aimed at analysing the association between NMU epigenetic variability and metabolic indices and the potential mediating role of low-grade inflammation in a general population of Italian adults.NMU Blood DNA methylation levels at two CpG islands (NMU76 and NMU32) were analysed using pyrosequencing in a randomly selected sub-cohort of 1,160 subjects from the Moli-sani study (≥35years; 49.20% men). Multivariable regressions adjusted for age, sex, smoking, alcohol and vegetable consumption were performed to estimate the associations between methylation and metabolic phenotypes (BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure, glucose, HOMA-IR, lipids, lipoprotein(a) and apolipoproteins). Mediation analysis was performed to identify the influence of low-grade inflammation in the association using a composite index based on C reactive protein, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR), platelet and white blood cell counts (INFLA-score).Using principal component analysis four methylation factors were identified: NMU76-F1, NMU76-F2, NMU32-F1 and NMU32-F2. NMU76-F1 was FDR significantly associated with total cholesterol (for 1 SD increase: β = 4.5 ± 1.4 mg/dL of, R² = 10.8%, p = 0.001), ApoB (0.03 ± 0.01 g/L, 12.2%, p = 0.0004), with INFLA-score (1.05 ± 0.22, p = 2.7E-6) and GLR (-0.27 ± 0.03, 30.4%, p = 1.3E-20). GLR and lymphocyte numbers mediate the association of NMU76-F1 with cholesterol (24.0% of total effect, Sobel p = 0.013) and ApoB (42.6%, p = 9E-7), respectively.These findings suggest that NMU promoter methylation patterns could mark a pathway linking lipids with haematopoiesis and systemic inflammation.

Tissue Plasminogen Activator Levels and Risk of Breast Cancer in a Case-Cohort Study on Italian Women: Results from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

 Elevated levels of key enzymes of the fibrinolytic system, such as tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), are reported as predictors of poor outcome in cancer patients. Limited information is available about their potential predictive value for breast cancer (BC) risk in the general population.

AIM

 We examined the association of tPA levels with BC risk in a case-cohort study including women from the prospective Moli-sani cohort.

METHODS

 A sample of 710 women (mean age: 54.6 ± 12.1 years) was selected as a subcohort and compared with 84 BC cases, in a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Incident cases of BC were validated through medical records. tPA plasma levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), adjusted for relevant covariates, were estimated by a Cox regression model using the Prentice method.

RESULTS

 Compared with the lowest quartile (<4.9 ng/mL), women in the highest quartile of tPA (>11.2 ng/mL) had increased risk of BC (HR_IVvsI: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.13-4.28) after adjusted for age, smoking, education, menopause, and residence. Further adjustment for biochemical markers did not modify this association. The risk of BC increased by 34% for each increase in 1 standard deviation of log-transformed tPA levels (p = 0.046). Elevated levels of tPA were associated mainly with estrogen-receptor-positive BC (2.08, 95% CI: 1.18-3.66).

CONCLUSION

 Higher levels of tPA, reported to predict cardiovascular risk, are a potential biomarker for BC risk, supporting the hypothesis of a "common soil" linking the pathogenic mechanisms of hormone-dependent tumors and cardiovascular disease.

Skin toxicity following radiotherapy in patients with breast carcinoma: is anthocyanin supplementation beneficial?

BACKGROUND

The EU-supported ATHENA project stems from a previous study suggesting that moderate wine consumption reduced the side-effects of radiotherapy (RT) in breast cancer patients, an effect possibly due to non-alcoholic anthocyanin fractions of wine.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the role of anthocyanins on RT skin side effects in breast cancer patients.

METHODS

Randomized, controlled, double-blind clinical trial. Patients were assigned to an intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) either for three or five weeks, then randomized to receive three times a day a water-soluble anthocyanin (125 mg)-rich extract of corn cob or a placebo. Supplementation started one week before till the end of RT. Skin characteristics were detected by a standardized, non-invasive Cutometer® dual-MPA580, providing quantitative indices of skin maximal distensibility (R0), elasticity (R2, R5, R7) and viscoelasticity (R6); a Mexameter® MX18 probe evaluated the skin erythema (Er) and melanin (M). Measures were performed before (T0), at the end of RT and of supplementation (T1), and 1, 6 and 12 months after RT (T2-T4). Acute and late skin toxicity were scored according to the RTOG/EORTG scale. Selected biomarkers were measured at T0 and T1.

RESULTS

193 patients previously assigned to 3- or 5-week RT schedules were randomized to either anthocyanin (97) or placebo (96) supplementation. RT induced changes in skin parameters: R0, R2, R5 and R7 decreased, while R6 increased; the changes in R0 and R6 continued in the same direction up to one year, while the others recovered towards basal values; Er and M peaked at T1 and T2, respectively, and returned to basal values at T4. Comparable skin changes were apparent in anthocyanin and placebo groups. A moderate RT-induced increase in total and HDL cholesterol and triglycerides was prevented by anthocyanins.

CONCLUSIONS

Anthocyanin supplementation did not prevent RT-induced local skin toxicity. The supplementation was well tolerated and safe.

Cardiovascular risk factors control according to diabetes status and prior cardiovascular events in patients managed in different settings

AIMS

To document in recent cohorts the degree of control of major cardiovascular (CV) risk factors according to diabetes status and prior CV disease in different settings.

METHODS

We studied men and women aged 50-75 years of whom 3028 with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed at diabetes clinics participants of the TOSCA.IT (NCT00700856) study recruited in 2008-2014; 742 with T2DM managed mainly in primary care and 6753 without diabetes participating in the Moli-sani (NCT03242109) study and recruited in 2005-2010 from an adult general population.

RESULTS

Among people without a prior CV event people with diabetes managed at diabetes clinics have lower LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure and a more frequent use of lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medications as compared to people with diabetes managed mainly in primary care and to people without diabetes. The proportions achieving the recommended treatment targets are respectively 47.4% vs 33.4% vs 29.5% for LDL-cholesterol and 42.6% vs 9.5% vs 47.4% for blood pressure. Figures for the participants with prior CV events were 26.8% vs 15.1% vs 42.5% for LDL-cholesterol and 43.8% vs 8.5% vs 43.6% for blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

The study documents that in modern cohorts a large proportion of people with or without diabetes does not achieve the treatment targets for LDL-cholesterol and blood pressure, both in primary and secondary CV prevention. People with diabetes attending diabetes clinics achieve a better control of major CV risk factors than those managed mainly in primary care, thus highlighting the relevant role of a structured model of care.

Associations between systemic inflammation and somatic depressive symptoms: Findings from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND

The link between systemic inflammation and depression has been deeply investigated, but relatively few studies explored symptom-specific associations, mostly focusing on common inflammatory biomarkers like C-reactive protein (CRP) levels.

METHODS

We investigated associations of low-grade inflammation with depressive symptoms assessed through a reduced version of Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) in a large population-based cohort of adult Italians (N = 13 301). We built logistic regressions between each depressive symptom and composite index of systemic inflammation based on four circulating biomarkers, namely CRP, Plt, WBC, and GLR (INFLA)-score, a composite blood-based inflammation index, and with its component biomarkers, namely CRP, platelets count (Plt), white blood cells count (WBC), and granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (GLR).

RESULTS

We observed a strong association of the altered appetite/eating symptom with standardized INFLA-score (OR [95% CI] = 1.19 [1.12-1.26]; corrected p = 3.0 × 10-7 ), CRP (1.28 [1.20-1.36]; p = 1.9 × 10-13 ), and WBC (1.13 [1.06-1.20]; p = 2.3 × 10-3 ), and of tiredness/low energy with GLR (1.11 [1.05-1.17]; p = 9.4 × 10-3 ). These associations remained stable within nondepressed participants (PHQ-9 < 10), and after adjustment for the use of antidepressants, main chronic conditions, and lifestyle factors; while they were notably attenuated within depressed participants (PHQ-9 ≥ 10) and-for altered appetite only-by adjustment for obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a robust replication of the association previously reported between CRP and altered appetite in a large US population cohort, and supports a link between systemic inflammation, altered appetite, and tiredness. Moreover, it extends this evidence to inflammatory markers other than CRP and suggests new targets for the treatment of atypical depression.

Determinants of serum uric acid levels in an adult general population: results from the Moli-sani Study

OBJECTIVES

High levels of serum uric acid (UA) are associated with cerebro-cardiovascular disease risk factors. This study aimed at evaluating the main determinants of serum UA levels in relation to biochemical, lifestyle, and clinical variables.

METHODS

The study population included 15,594 participants (48% men, age ≥ 35 years) to the Moli-sani Study, for whom data on serum UA levels were available. Association of UA with dependent variables was investigated by multivariable linear regression analysis separately for men and women.

RESULTS

Average serum UA levels were higher in men than in women (6.1 ± 1.3 vs 4.6 ± 1.2 mg/dL, respectively). Cystatin C, creatinine, albumin, triglycerides, body mass index (BMI), and diuretic therapy were the major determinants of the heterogeneity of UA levels. In women, the final model, resulting from the stepwise analysis, explained 41.6% of the UA variability. In particular, cystatin C explained 22.5% of UA variance, followed by BMI (7.2%), albumin (4.0%), and creatinine (1.9%). The final model in men fitted the data less than in women (total R² = 29.1%), and creatinine was found to be the main determinant of UA levels (10.1%), followed by triglycerides (7.6%), BMI (3.7%), and albumin (2.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

In a general adult population, the major determinants of serum UA levels are cystatin C, creatinine, BMI, triglycerides, albumin, and the use of diuretics. Knowledge of its main determinants will be useful to better evaluate the relationship between UA levels and detrimental health outcomes and to clarify if an increase in uricemia is a marker or an independent risk factor. Key Points • Increased serum uric acid (UA) levels are reportedly associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors. • The major determinants of heterogeneity of UA levels are cystatin C, creatinine, BMI, triglycerides, albumin, and the use of diuretics, in a general adult population. • Studying the main determinants associated with high levels of serum uric acid would help better understanding if uric acid is a marker or an independent cardiovascular risk factor.

Association of a traditional Mediterranean diet and non-Mediterranean dietary scores with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: prospective findings from the Moli-sani Study

PURPOSE

To evaluate in an Italian general population, the association with mortality of a traditional Mediterranean diet (MD) and non-Mediterranean dietary (non-MD) patterns, and their combined effect, and to test some biomarkers of cardiovascular (CVD) risk as potential mediators of such associations.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis on 22,849 men and women aged ≥ 35 years, recruited in the Moli-sani Study (2005-2010), followed up for 8.2 years (median). The MD was assessed by the Mediterranean diet score (MDS). The Dietary  Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), the Palaeolithic diet, and the Nordic diet were chosen as reportedly healthy non-MD patterns. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

Participants reaching higher MDS or DASH diet score experienced lower risk of both all-cause (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.66-0.90 and 0.81; 0.69-0.96, respectively, highest vs lowest quartile) and CVD (0.77; 0.59-1.00 and 0.81; 0.69-0.96, respectively) death risk; risk reduction associated with the Palaeolithic diet was limited to total and other cause death, whereas the Nordic diet did not alter risk of mortality. Increasing adherence to MD was associated with higher survival in each stratum of non-MD diets. Biomarkers of glucose metabolism accounted for 7% and 21.6% of the association between either MDS or DASH diet, respectively, with total mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the traditional MD and DASH diet may reduce risk of all-cause mortality among Italians, as well as risk of dying from cardiovascular causes. The Palaeolithic diet did not appear to reduce cardiovascular risk, while the Nordic eating pattern was unlikely to be associated with any substantial health advantage.

Variation of PEAR1 DNA methylation influences platelet and leukocyte function

BACKGROUND

Platelet-endothelial aggregation receptor 1 (PEAR-1) is a transmembrane receptor involved in platelet activation and megakaryopoiesis whose expression is driven by DNA methylation. PEAR1 variants were associated with differential platelet response to activation and cardiovascular outcomes. We aimed at investigating the link between PEAR1 methylation and platelet and leukocyte function markers in a family-based population.

RESULTS

We measured PEAR1 methylation in 605 Moli-family participants with available blood counts, plasma P-selectin and C-reactive protein, whole blood platelet P-selectin, and platelet-leukocyte mixed conjugate measurements. We performed principal component analysis (PCA) to identify groups of highly correlated CpG sites. We used linear mixed regression models (using age, gender, BMI, smoking, alcohol drinking, being a proband for family recruitment, being a member of myocardial infarction (MI) family as fixed effects, and family as a random effect) to evaluate associations between PEAR1 methylation and phenotypes. PEAR1 methylation Factor2, characterized by the previously identified megakaryocyte-specific CpG sites, was inversely associated with platelet-monocyte conjugates, P-selectin, and WBC counts, while positively associated with the platelet distribution width (PDW) and with leukocyte CD11b and L-selectin. Moreover, PEAR1 Factor2 methylation was negatively associated with INFLAscore, a low-grade inflammation score. The latter was partially mediated by the PEAR1 methylation effect on platelet variables. PEAR1 methylation association with WBC measurements and INFLAscore was confirmed in the independent cohort FLEMENGHO.

CONCLUSIONS

We report a significant link between epigenetic signatures in a platelet functional gene and inflammation-dependent platelet function variability measured in two independent cohorts.

ZBTB12 DNA methylation is associated with coagulation- and inflammation-related blood cell parameters: findings from the Moli-family cohort

Background

Zinc finger and BTB domain-containing protein 12 (ZBTB12) is a predicted transcription factor with potential role in hematopoietic development. Recent evidence linked low methylation level of ZBTB12 exon1 to myocardial infarction (MI) risk. However, the role of ZBTB12 in the pathogenesis of MI and cardiovascular disease in general is not yet clarified. We investigated the relation between ZBTB12 methylation and several blood parameters related to cardio-cerebrovascular risk in an Italian family-based cohort.

Results

ZBTB12 methylation was analyzed on white blood cells from the Moli-family cohort using the Sequenom EpiTYPER MassARRAY (Agena). A total of 13 CpG Sequenom units were analyzed in the small CpG island located in the only translated ZBTB12 exon. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to identify groups of CpG units with similar methylation estimates. Linear mixed effect regressions showed a positive association between methylation of ZBTB12 Factor 2 (including CpG units 8, 9–10, 16, 21) and TNF-ɑ stimulated procoagulant activity, a measure of procoagulant and inflammatory potential of blood cells. In addition, we also found a negative association between methylation of ZBTB12 Factor 1 (mainly characterized by CpG units 1, 3–4, 5, 11, and 26) and white blood cell and granulocyte counts. An in silico prediction analysis identified granulopoiesis- and hematopoiesis-specific transcription factors to potentially bind DNA sequences encompassing CpG1, CpG3–4, and CpG11.

Conclusions

ZBTB12 hypomethylation is linked to shorter TNF-ɑ stimulated whole blood coagulation time and increased WBC and granulocyte counts, further elucidating the possible link between ZBTB12 methylation and cardiovascular disease risk.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13148-019-0665-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Alcohol consumption and hospitalization burden in an adult Italian population: prospective results from the Moli-sani study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Epidemiological evidence on the impact of different alcohol drinking patterns on health-care systems or hospitalizations is sparse. We investigated how the different average volumes of alcohol consumed relate to all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study (baseline 2005-10) linked to a registry of hospital discharge records to identify hospitalizations at follow-up (December 2013).

SETTING

Molise region, Italy.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 20 682 individuals (48% men, age ≥ 35 years) who participated in the Moli-sani Study and were free from cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

The alcohol volume consumed in the year before enrolment was classified as: life-time abstainers, former drinkers, occasional drinkers and current drinkers who drank 1-12 (referent), 12.1-24, 24.1-48 and > 48 g/day of alcohol. Cause-specific hospitalizations were assigned by Italian Diagnosis Related Groups classification or by ICD-9 code of main admission diagnoses. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) of hospitalization were estimated by Poisson regression, taking into account the total number of admissions that occurred during the follow-up per person.

FINDINGS

During a median follow-up of 6.3 years, 12 996 multiple hospital admissions occurred. In multivariable analyses, life-time abstainers and former drinkers had higher rates of all-cause [IRR = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.05-1.17 and IRR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.02-1.31, respectively] and vascular (IRR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.02-1.27 and IRR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.24-1.76, respectively) hospitalizations compared with light alcohol consumers. Alcohol consumption > 48 g/day was associated with a higher rate of hospitalization for both alcohol-related diseases (IRR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.32-2.29) and cancer (IRR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.12-1.65). The magnitude of the association between heavier alcohol intake and hospitalization tended to be greater in smokers than non-smokers. No associations were observed with hospitalization for trauma or neurodegenerative diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate alcohol consumption appears to have a modest but complex impact on global hospitalization burden. Heavier drinkers have a higher rate of hospitalization for all causes, including alcohol-related diseases and cancer, a risk that appears to be further magnified by concurrent smoking.

Socioeconomic trajectories across the life course and risk of total and cause-specific mortality: prospective findings from the Moli-sani Study

Background

A life course approach has been suggested as the most appropriate to establish the total impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on adult health outcomes; however, such an approach has been poorly used within Mediterranean populations. We aimed to examine the SES trajectories from childhood to adulthood associated with mortality risk in a large general population-based cohort and to test potential pathways (eg, inflammation) underlying such associations.

Methods

Longitudinal analyses on 22 194 subjects recruited in the Moli-sani Study, Italy (2005–2010). Low and high SES in childhood, educational attainment (low/high) and SES during adulthood (measured by a score including material resources and dichotomised as low/high) were used to define overall trajectories.

Results

Over 8.3 years of follow-up, 1155 deaths occurred. In the group with poor childhood SES, an upward trajectory in both educational and material circumstances was associated with lower risk of all-cause death (HR=0.64; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.87), as opposed to subjects who remained stably low (low education and adulthood SES). Subjects with high childhood SES, but not educational achievement, were at increased risk of total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death, although reporting higher material SES in adult life, as compared with the stably high SES group (HR=1.44; 1.02 to 2.02 and HR=1.90; 1.10 to 3.28, respectively). Inflammatory markers marginally accounted for such associations.

Conclusion

For individuals with low SES in early life, an educational and material upward trajectory over the life course was associated with lower mortality risk. In the high SES childhood group, lack of a higher educational attainment appeared to be unfavourably associated with survival.

Interaction between Mediterranean diet and statins on mortality risk in patients with cardiovascular disease: Findings from the Moli-sani Study

BACKGROUND

Statins are prescribed for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), along with the recommendation of adopting healthy diets. We evaluated the independent and the combined effect of statins and Mediterranean diet (MD) towards mortality risk in patients with previous CVD by using real-life data from a population-based prospective cohort.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis on 1180 subjects (mean age 67.7 ± 10) with prior CVD at enrollment in the Moli-sani Study and followed up for 7.9 y (median). Adherence to MD was appraised by a Mediterranean diet score. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by multivariable Cox regression and competing risk models.

RESULTS

Multivariable risk estimates associated with a 2-point increase in MD score were 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-1.00), 0.77 (0.61-0.97) and 0.70 (0.52-0.93) for overall, cardiovascular and coronary artery disease (CAD)/cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. Statins were not associated with death risk. Subjects combining statins and average-high adherence to MD had much lower than expected risk of cardiovascular and CAD/cerebrovascular mortality (p for interaction = 0.045 and 0.0015, respectively) as compared to those neither using statins nor having average-high MD. The combination of average-high MD and statins was associated in a likely synergistic way with reduced low-grade inflammation, but not with blood cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

MD lowered the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and CAD/cerebrovascular mortality CVD patients, net of statins. In the same population, statins reduced CVD death risk only in combination with MD. Low-grade inflammation, rather than lipids, is likely to be on the pathway of the interaction between MD and statins towards mortality risk.

Body Mass Index and Mortality in Elderly Subjects from the Moli-Sani Study: A Possible Mediation by Low-Grade Inflammation?

The association between obesity and mortality in the elderly remains controversial. To test the association between BMI and mortality, with the hypothesis of a mediation by low-grade inflammation (LGI), a prospective study design (median follow-up 7.8 years) was used on a sample of 4,970 elderly subjects (age ≥ 65 years) from the Moli-sani Study cohort. The association between BMI categories and overall or cause-specific mortality (hazard ratio, HR) was calculated by multivariable Cox regression. Dose-response relationship was tested using restricted cubic splines. Interaction between BMI and LGI, assessed through high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and INFLA-score, was also tested. In comparison with normal-weight, overweight was significantly associated with a 20% (adjusted HR = 0.80; 95%CI 0.67-0.95) reduced risk of total mortality, while severe obesity (BMI > 40) with an increased risk (HR = 1.81; 95%CI 1.13-2.93). Cubic spline curves showed a U-shaped relationship between BMI and total mortality (p value for nonlinear relationship = 0.001). Similar results were found for cardio-cerebrovascular and other causes mortality. Hs-CRP and INFLA-score were associated with an increased risk of total mortality in adjusted analyses. Mediation analysis did not show any effect of LGI on the association between BMI and mortality. However, after stratification for LGI under or below the population median, greater LGI increased the risk of mortality in obese elderly more than expected (p for interaction = 0.04). A U-shaped association between BMI and mortality was observed in Italian elderly subjects. While the association was independent of LGI levels, there was a significant interaction between BMI and LGI in increasing mortality risk in obese elderly individuals.