Cost-Effectiveness of Increased Use of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After High-Risk Transient Ischemic Attack or Minor Stroke

BACKGROUND

Rates of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after high-risk transient ischemic attack or minor ischemic stroke (TIAMIS) are suboptimal. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to characterize the parameters of a quality improvement (QI) intervention designed to increase DAPT use after TIAMIS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We constructed a decision tree model that compared current national rates of DAPT use after TIAMIS with rates after implementing a theoretical QI intervention designed to increase appropriate DAPT use. The base case assumed that a QI intervention increased the rate of DAPT use to 65% from 45%. Costs (payer and societal) and outcomes (stroke, myocardial infarction, major bleed, or death) were modeled using a lifetime horizon. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <$100 000 per quality-adjusted life year was considered cost-effective. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. From the payer perspective, a QI intervention was associated with $9657 in lifetime cost savings and 0.18 more quality-adjusted life years compared with current national treatment rates. A QI intervention was cost-effective in 73% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis iterations. Results were similar from the societal perspective. The maximum acceptable, initial, 1-time payer cost of a QI intervention was $28 032 per patient. A QI intervention that increased DAPT use to at least 51% was cost-effective in the base case.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing DAPT use after TIAMIS with a QI intervention is cost-effective over a wide range of costs and proportion of patients with TIAMIS treated with DAPT after implementation of a QI intervention. Our results support the development of future interventions focused on increasing DAPT use after TIAMIS.

Decreasing alloimmunization-specific mortality in sickle cell disease in the United States: Cost-effectiveness of a shared transfusion resource

Red blood cell alloimmunization and consequent delayed hemolytic transfusion reaction (DHTR) incidence and mortality in patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) are high. A shared transfusion resource has decreased both in other countries, while in the United States cost concerns persist. We conducted a Markov cohort simulation of a birth cohort of alloimmunized patients with SCD to estimate lifetime DHTR incidence, DHTR-specific mortality, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), and costs with the implementation of a shared transfusion resource to identify antibody history versus without (i.e., status quo). We conducted our analysis using a lifetime analytic time horizon and from a United States health system perspective. Implementation of shared transfusion resource projects to decrease cumulative DHTR-specific mortality by 26% for alloimmunized patients with SCD in the United States, relative to the status quo. For an average patient population of 32 000, this intervention would generate a discounted increment of 4000 QALYs at an incremental discounted cost of $0.3 billion, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $75 600/QALY [95% credible interval $70 200-81 400/QALY]. The results are most sensitive to the baseline lifetime medical expenditure of patients with SCD. Alloantibody data exchange is cost-effective in 100% of 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations. The resource would theoretically need a minimum patient population of 1819 patients or cost no more than $5.29 million annually to be cost-effective. By reducing DHTR-specific mortality, a shared transfusion resource in the United States projects to be a life-saving and cost-effective intervention for patients with SCD in the United States.

Quality Measure Adherence and Oral Health Outcomes in Children

Importance

Process-based quality measures are generally intended to promote evidence-based practices that have been proven to improve outcomes. However, due to lack of standardized implementation of diagnostic codes in dentistry, assessing the association between process and oral health outcomes has been challenging.

Objective

To estimate the association of adhering to dental quality measures with patient oral health outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Using a target trial emulation, a causal inference framework, this retrospective cohort study estimated the difference in the risk of developing tooth decay between US children who adhered to process-based dental quality measures (receiving topical fluoride and sealant [treated groups]) and those who did not (control groups). Electronic health records of US children and adolescents aged 0 to 18 years from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020, were used. To emulate random treatment assignment based on baseline confounders, coarsened exact matching was used to produce covariate balance between the treated and control groups. A time-to-event regression model produced effect estimates, adjusting for time-varying covariates. Near-far matching was used to account for unmeasured confounders as a sensitivity analysis. Data were analyzed from May 1 to August 7, 2023.

Exposures

Adherence to dental quality measures.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence of tooth decay.

Results

Among 69 212 US children aged between 0 and 18 years (mean [SD] age, 10.2 [5.0] years; 49.5% male, 50.4% female, and 0.1% unknown or transgender), 1930 (2.8%) were Asian, 2038 (2.9%) were Black, 8667 (12.5%) were Hispanic, 33 632 (48.6%) were White, and 22 945 (33.2%) were multiracial, other, or missing racial and ethnic group identification. Relative to control individuals, treated individuals were more likely to be at elevated risk of caries (fluoride measure: 16 453 [76.5%] vs 15 236 [39.8%]; sealant measure: 2264 [54.6%] vs 997 [44.0%]) and have regular dental visits (fluoride measure: 21 498 [100%] vs 13 741 [35.9%]; sealant measure: 1623 [39.2%] vs 871 [38.4%]). Adherence to quality measures was associated with reduced risk of tooth decay with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78- 0.86) for fluoride and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.76-0.97) for sealant in the matched cohort. Benefits of adhering to quality measures were greater among children at elevated vs low risk and with public vs commercial insurance for both measures.

Conclusions

In this cohort study, adhering to dental quality measures was associated with reduced risk of tooth decay, and benefits were greater among children at elevated risk and with public insurance. These findings provide insights in facilitating targeted application of quality measures or developing more tailored quality improvement initiatives.

Evolution of Value in American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Clinical Practice Guidelines

BACKGROUND

In January 2014, the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association released a policy statement arguing for the inclusion of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and value assessments in clinical practice guidelines. It is unclear whether subsequent guidelines changed how they incorporated such concepts.

METHODS

We analyzed guidelines of cardiovascular disease subconditions with a guideline released before and after 2014. We counted the words (total and per page) for 8 selected value- or CEA-related terms and compared counts and rates of terms per page in the guidelines before and after 2014. We counted the number of recommendations with at least 1 reference to a CEA or a CEA-related article to compare the ratios of such recommendations to all recommendations before and after 2014. We looked for the inclusion of the value assessment system recommended by the writing committee of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association policy statement of 2014.

RESULTS

We analyzed 20 guidelines of 10 different cardiovascular disease subconditions. Seven of the 10 cardiovascular disease subconditions had guidelines with a greater term per page rate after 2014 than before 2014. Across all 20 guidelines, the proportion of recommendations with at least 1 reference to a CEA changed from 0.44% to 1.99% (P<0.01). The proportion of recommendations with at least 1 reference to a CEA-related article changed from 1.02% to 3.34% (P<0.01). Only 3 guidelines used a value assessment system.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of recommendations with at least 1 reference to a CEA or CEA-related article was low before and after 2014 for most of the subconditions, however, with substantial variation in this finding across the guidelines included in our analysis. There is a need to organize existing CEA information better and produce more policy-relevant CEAs so guideline writers can more easily make recommendations that incentivize high-value care and caution against using low-value care.

Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men

Importance

Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Objectives

To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV. Analyses were completed from July 2021 to October 2023.

Intervention

The study simulated status quo care using race-specific estimates: age at infection, time to diagnosis, receipt of care, and virologic suppression. The study next projected the outcomes of attaining equity-centered vs non-equity-centered goals by simulating 2 equal improvements in care goals: (10-point increased receipt of care and 5-point increased virologic suppression), 3 equity-centered goals (annual HIV testing, 95% receiving HIV care, and 95% virologic suppression) and lastly, an equitable care continuum that achieves annual HIV testing, 95% receiving care, and 95% virologic suppression in Black MSM and White MSM. One-way and multiway sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mean age at death and YLG.

Results

In the simulated cohort, the mean (SD) age at HIV infection was 27.0 (10.8) years for Black MSM and 35.5 (13.6) years for White MSM. In status quo, mean age at death would be 68.8 years for Black MSM and 75.6 years for White MSM. The equal improvements in care goals would result in 0.5 YLG for Black MSM and 0.5 to 0.9 YLG for White MSM. Achieving any 1 equity-centered goal would result in 0.5 to 1.7 YLG for Black MSM and 0.4 to 1.3 YLG for White MSM. With an equitable care continuum compared with the nationally reported status quo, Black MSM and White MSM would gain 3.5 and 2.1 life-years, respectively. If the status quo HIV testing was every 6 years with 75% retained in care and 75% virologically suppressed, Black MSM would gain 4.2 life-years with an equitable care continuum.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this simulation modeling study of HIV care goals, equal improvements in HIV care for Black and White MSM maintained or worsened inequities. These results suggest that equity-centered goals for the HIV care continuum are critical to mitigate long-standing inequities in HIV outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of prophylactic emicizumab versus prophylactic recombinant factor VIII in patients with moderate or mild hemophilia A without inhibitors in the United States

Prophylactic emicizumab is cost-ineffective in adults with moderate or mild hemophilia A without inhibitors at current pricing. The price of prophylactic emicizumab would need to decrease by >35% to become cost-effective in this patient population.

The Value-of-Information and Value-of-Implementation from Clinical Trials of Diagnostic Tests for HIV-Associated Tuberculosis: A Modeling Analysis

Objectives. Conventional value-of-information (VOI) analysis assumes complete uptake of an optimal decision. We employed an extended framework that includes value-of-implementation (VOM)-the benefit of encouraging adoption of an optimal strategy-and estimated how future trials of diagnostic tests for HIV-associated tuberculosis could improve public health decision making and clinical and economic outcomes. Methods. We evaluated the clinical outcomes and costs, given current information, of 3 tuberculosis screening strategies among hospitalized people with HIV in South Africa: sputum Xpert (Xpert), sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM), and sputum Xpert plus the newer, more sensitive, and costlier urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). We projected the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) of decision making based on results of a trial comparing mortality with each strategy, rather than decision making based solely on current knowledge of FujiLAM's improved diagnostic performance. We used a validated microsimulation to estimate VOI (the INMB of reducing parameter uncertainty before decision making) and VOM (the INMB of encouraging adoption of an optimal strategy). Results. With current information, adopting Xpert+FujiLAM yields 0.4 additional life-years/person compared with current practices (assumed 50% Xpert and 50% Xpert+AlereLAM). While the decision to adopt this optimal strategy is unaffected by information from the clinical trial (VOI = $ 0 at $3,000/year-of-life saved willingness-to-pay threshold), there is value in scaling up implementation of Xpert+FujiLAM, which results in an INMB (representing VOM) of $650 million over 5 y. Conclusions. Conventional VOI methods account for the value of switching to a new optimal strategy based on trial data but fail to account for the persuasive value of trials in increasing uptake of the optimal strategy. Evaluation of trials should include a focus on their value in reducing barriers to implementation.

Highlights

In conventional VOI analysis, it is assumed that the optimal decision will always be adopted even without a trial. This can potentially lead to an underestimation of the value of trials when adoption requires new clinical trial evidence. To capture the influence that a trial may have on decision makers' willingness to adopt the optimal decision, we also consider value-of-implementation (VOM), a metric quantifying the benefit of new study information in promoting wider adoption of the optimal strategy. The overall value-of-a-trial (VOT) includes both VOI and VOM.Our model-based analysis suggests that the information obtained from a trial of screening strategies for HIV-associated tuberculosis in South Africa would have no value, when measured using traditional methods of VOI assessment. A novel strategy, which includes the urine FujiLAM test, is optimal from a health economic standpoint but is underutilized. A trial would reduce uncertainties around downstream health outcomes but likely would not change the optimal decision. The high VOT (nearly $700 million over 5 y) lies solely in promoting uptake of FujiLAM, represented as VOM.Our results highlight the importance of employing a more comprehensive approach for evaluating prospective trials, as conventional VOI methods can vastly underestimate their value. Trialists and funders can and should assess the VOT metric instead when considering trial designs and costs. If VOI is low, the VOM and cost of a trial can be compared with the benefits and costs of other outreach programs to determine the most cost-effective way to improve uptake.

Cost-Effectiveness of Quadruple Therapy in Management of Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction in the United States

BACKGROUND

The 2022 clinical guidelines for management of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction call for quadruple therapy. Quadruple therapy consists of an angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNi), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i), mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, and beta blocker. The ARNi and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor are newer additions to standard of care with the ARNi replacing ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers.

METHODS

We investigate the cost-effectiveness of sequentially adding the SGLT2i and ARNi to form quadruple therapy as compared with the previous standard of care with ACE inhibitor/mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist/beta blocker. Using a 2-stage Markov model, we projected the expected lifetime discounted costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of a simulated cohort of US patients who underwent each treatment option and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. We assessed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using criteria for health care value (<$50 000/quality-adjusted life year [QALY] indicating high-value, $50 000-150 000/QALY indicating intermediate value, and >$150 000/QALY indicating low-value) and a standard $100 000/QALY cost-effectiveness threshold.

RESULTS

Compared with the previous standard of care, the SGLT2i addition had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $73 000/QALY and weakly dominated the ARNi addition. The addition of both the ARNi and SGLT2i for quadruple therapy offered 0.68 additional discounted QALYs over the SGLT2i addition alone at a lifetime discounted cost of $66 700, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $98 500/QALY. In sensitivity analysis varying drug prices, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for quadruple therapy ranged from $73 500/QALY using prices available to the US Department of Veterans Affairs to $110 000/QALY using drug list prices.

CONCLUSIONS

While quadruple therapy offers intermediate value, it is borderline cost effective compared with adding the SGLT2i alone to previous standard of care. Thus, its cost-effectiveness is sensitive to a payer's ability to negotiate discounts off the increasing list prices for ARNI and SGLT2is. The demonstrated benefits of ARNi and SGLT2is should be weighed against their high prices in payer and policy considerations.

Distributional Cost-Effectiveness of Equity-Enhancing Gene Therapy in Sickle Cell Disease in the United States

BACKGROUND

Gene therapy is a potential cure for sickle cell disease (SCD). Conventional cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) does not capture the effects of treatments on disparities in SCD, but distributional CEA (DCEA) uses equity weights to incorporate these considerations.

OBJECTIVE

To compare gene therapy versus standard of care (SOC) in patients with SCD by using conventional CEA and DCEA.

DESIGN

Markov model.

DATA SOURCES

Claims data and other published sources.

TARGET POPULATION

Birth cohort of patients with SCD.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

U.S. health system.

INTERVENTION

Gene therapy at age 12 years versus SOC.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (in dollars per quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] gained) and threshold inequality aversion parameter (equity weight).

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Gene therapy versus SOC for females yielded 25.5 versus 15.7 (males: 24.4 vs. 15.5) discounted lifetime QALYs at costs of $2.8 million and $1.0 million (males: $2.8 million and $1.2 million), respectively, with an ICER of $176 000 per QALY (full SCD population). The inequality aversion parameter would need to be 0.90 for the full SCD population for gene therapy to be preferred per DCEA standards.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

SOC was favored in 100.0% (females) and 87.1% (males) of 10 000 probabilistic iterations at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY. Gene therapy would need to cost less than $1.79 million to meet conventional CEA standards.

LIMITATION

Benchmark equity weights (as opposed to SCD-specific weights) were used to interpret DCEA results.

CONCLUSION

Gene therapy is cost-ineffective per conventional CEA standards but can be an equitable therapeutic strategy for persons living with SCD in the United States per DCEA standards.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Yale Bernard G. Forget Scholars Program and Bunker Endowment.

Prioritizing Quality Measures in Acute Stroke Care : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association and American Stroke Association (AHA/ASA) endorsed 15 process measures for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) to improve the quality of care. Identifying the highest-value measures could reduce the administrative burden of quality measure adoption while retaining much of the value of quality improvement.

OBJECTIVE

To prioritize AHA/ASA-endorsed quality measures for AIS on the basis of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

DESIGN

Individual-based stroke simulation model.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

U.S. patients with incident AIS.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Health care sector.

INTERVENTION

Current versus complete (100%) implementation at the population level of quality measures endorsed by the AHA/ASA with sufficient clinical evidence (10 of 15).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and incremental net health benefits.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Discounted life-years gained from complete implementation would range from 472 (tobacco use counseling) to 34 688 (early carotid imaging) for an annual AIS patient cohort. All AIS quality measures were cost-saving or highly cost-effective by AHA standards (<$50 000 per QALY for high-value care). Early carotid imaging and intravenous tissue plasminogen activator contributed the largest fraction of the total potential value of quality improvement (measured as incremental net health benefit), accounting for 72% of the total value. The top 5 quality measures accounted for 92% of the total potential value.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

A web-based user interface allows for context-specific sensitivity and scenario analyses.

LIMITATION

Correlations between quality measures were not incorporated.

CONCLUSION

Substantial variation exists in the potential net benefit of quality improvement across AIS quality measures. Benefits were highly concentrated among 5 of 10 measures assessed. Our results can help providers and payers set priorities for quality improvement efforts and value-based payments in AIS care.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.

Lower Limb Serratia marcescens Necrotizing Fasciitis Complicated by Nosocomial COVID-19

Serratia marcescens represents an unusual yet potentially deadly cause of lower limb necrotizing fasciitis (NF). Compounding the already high mortality of NF, S. marcescens infections are usually associated with worse outcomes (i.e., amputation). Here we present the case of a 56-year-old immunocompromised man due to lupus nephritis who developed lower limb NF secondary to S. marcescens followed by nosocomial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonitis. Successful limb salvage was achieved through a multidisciplinary team approach from various specialties including plastic surgery, orthopedic surgery, anesthesiology, intensive care, respiratory medicine, and nephrology. At 11 months' follow-up, the patient was largely independent with activities of daily living and was able to ambulate. Unfortunately, he suffered a myocardial infarction at 19 months post-operatively and passed away. A review of the literature revealed only a handful of cases of lower limb NF due to S. marcescens and none with subsequent COVID-19. Therefore, this is the first report of such a case which should help with the clinical management of such cases going forward, especially with COVID-19 now becoming endemic in our communities and contributing to delayed presentations and increased mortality in NF.

798. Life-years Gained among non-Hispanic Black and White Men who have Sex with Men in the United States with Improvements in the HIV Care Continuum A Simulation Modeling Study

Background

Structural barriers and racism result in inequities across the HIV care continuum. We quantified the magnitude of racial disparities in life expectancy (LE) and the potential impact of interventions to improve the HIV care continuum among non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Methods

Using the validated CEPAC microsimulation HIV model, we projected LE among non-Hispanic Black MSM (BMSM) and White MSM (WMSM). We estimated average age at HIV infection (BMSM: 26.8y, WMSM: 35.0y) and time from infection to diagnosis (BMSM: 3.4y, WMSM: 3.0y) using US race-stratified data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Table 1). To account for differences in the HIV care continuum, we calibrated input parameters to race-specific estimates of: 1) the proportion of time that MSM with diagnosed HIV are retained in care (BMSM: 75.2%, WMSM: 80.6%), and 2) the % of MSM with diagnosed HIV who attain virologic suppression (VS; BMSM: 82.0%, WMSM: 91.2%). To account for increased risk of non-HIV-related mortality, we adjusted race-stratified life tables for smoking. We then projected LE from age 15 in five scenarios: 1) status quo HIV care (2019 estimates of HIV testing, VS, and retention in care), 2) earlier diagnosis (via annual testing), 3) improved retention in care (95% retention via reduced loss to follow-up), 4) improved VS (95% VS among MSM in care), and 5) a combined strategy (annual testing, 95% retention, 95% VS).

Results

Among MSM in status quo HIV care, we projected LE from age 15 to be 52.2y (BMSM) and 58.5y (WMSM), a difference of 6.3 years (Figure 1). With annual testing, BMSM would gain 0.6 life-years (LY), and WMSM would gain 0.3 LY compared with status quo care. Improving retention in care to 95% would result in a gain of 1.4 LY for BMSM and 1.0 LY for WMSM. BMSM would gain 1.1 LY if VS increased to 95% among those in care, whereas WMSM would gain 0.3 LY. BMSM would gain 3.4 LY (LE from age 15: 55.6y) and WMSM 1.6 LY (LE from age 15: 60.1y) in the combined strategy.

Conclusion

Equity-focused solutions that specifically target investment in HIV care for Black MSM will be critical to reduce disparities in HIV care outcomes and improve LE.

Disclosures

Krishna Reddy, MD, MS, UpToDate, Inc.: Author Aimalohi Ahonkhai, MD, MPH, Bryan Allen Events LLC for Gilead: Advisor/Consultant|ViiV: Advisor/Consultant.

Modeling the Cost and Health Impacts of Diagnostic Strategies in Patients with Suspected Transthyretin Cardiac Amyloidosis

Background Transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CMP) is an increasingly recognized and treatable cause of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Multimodality cardiac imaging is recommended for ATTR-CMP diagnosis, but its cost-effectiveness in current clinical practice has not been well studied. Methods and Results Using a microsimulation model, we compared the cost-effectiveness of a combination of strategies involving ^99mtechnetium pyrophosphate (PYP), cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, and endomyocardial biopsy for the diagnosis of ATTR-CMP. We developed a decision analytic model to project health care costs and lifetime quality-adjusted life years for symptomatic, older patients who present with congestive heart failure, with an increased left ventricular wall thickness and a 13% prevalence of ATTR-CMP. Rates of clinical events, costs, and quality-of-life values were estimated from published literature. The analysis was conducted from a US health care system perspective with health and cost outcomes discounted annually at 3%. In the base-case scenario, using a fixed tafamidis price of $16 000 annually (previously identified cost-effective price), total health care costs per person were lowest for the PYP-only strategy ($209 415) and highest for endomyocardial biopsy strategy ($215 881). Of the 7 strategies examined, the PYP-only strategy had the highest net monetary benefit using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/quality-adjusted life year. Results were sensitive to variations in model inputs for PYP and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging specificity, cost of tafamidis, and willingness-to-pay thresholds. Conclusions Our model-based analyses showed that a PYP-only strategy to diagnose ATTR-CMP is the most cost-effective strategy, at willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/quality-adjusted life year. At higher threshold ($150 000/quality-adjusted life year), sequential tests involving PYP and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging may be considered cost effective.

Cost-Effectiveness of Early Intervention in Psychosis: A Modeling Study

OBJECTIVE

Programs for early intervention in psychosis have shown clinical efficacy. The authors aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of early intervention programs compared with standard care for the treatment of first-episode psychosis in the United States.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model integrating published data on clinical efficacy, costs, and health utilities was developed to evaluate early intervention versus standard care over the lifetime of patients after their first psychotic episode. Model input data were derived from meta-analyses, clinical trials, and U.S. national data. The main outcomes included hospitalizations, employment rate, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime health care costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

Compared with patients receiving standard care, patients in the early intervention strategy had 3.2 fewer hospitalizations and 2.7 more years of employment over the course of their remaining life expectancy. From a health care perspective, early intervention had an ICER of approximately $51,600 per QALY. From a societal perspective, early intervention saved costs (i.e., yielded greater health benefits and had lower costs compared with standard care). Results were sensitive to the effect of early intervention on suicide, cost of standard care, cost of early intervention, and the effect (relative risk) of early intervention on employment. A scenario analysis that excluded the effect (i.e., hazard ratio) of early intervention on suicide yielded an ICER of approximately $197,000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that it is economically beneficial to fund early intervention in psychosis programs in the United States. The findings indicate that early intervention in psychosis saves costs (from the societal perspective) and is cost-effective (health care sector perspective).

Neuroimaging in acute ischemic stroke: Trends, disparities, and clinical impact

INTRODUCTION

Clinical studies over the past decade expanded the eligibility criteria for endovascular therapy, with advanced imaging selection and new devices leading to higher rates of good outcomes. Herein, we explore the current trends in neuroimaging, associated factors, and impact on treatment and clinical outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a retrospective study of consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients, admitted to a comprehensive stroke center from 2016 to 2020. Patient characteristics, including age, sex, race, arrival method, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and last known well to arrival time; imaging and treatment utilization; and discharge outcome by modified Rankin Scale and disposition were extracted from medical records. Trend and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed, and trends were stratified by patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Of 4,125 acute ischemic stroke episodes, 15.1% received intravenous thrombolysis only, and 7.5% received endovascular thrombectomy from 2016 to 2020. Neuroimaging utilization trends significantly increased for computed tomography angiography (CTA) (48.7% to 75.2%, p < 0.001) and computed tomography perfusion (CTP) (0.26% to 32.9%, p < 0.001), and decreased for magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) (43.2% to 24.7%, p < 0.001). These trends held after adjusting for patient characteristics. Endovascular thrombectomy and intravenous thrombolysis were significantly more common in patients with CTA and CTP (p < 0.0001), and these treatments were associated with good clinical outcomes after controlling for patient characteristics.

CONCLUSION

We found significantly increased trends in CTA and CTP imaging, which were associated with endovascular thrombectomy and intravenous thrombolysis utilization, in acute ischemic stroke patients from 2016 to 2020.

Cost-effectiveness of routine versus indicated antibiotic therapy in the management of severe wasting in children

Background

In the outpatient management of severe wasting, routine antibiotic therapy is recommended for all children upon admission regardless of whether clinical signs of infection are present. Indicated antibiotic therapy, where antibiotics are provided only upon presentation of clinical signs of infection, may be considered for its potential to allow for more prudent antibiotic use and greater program coverage, reducing the risk of antibiotic resistance as well as costs and logistical burdens associated with treatment. We therefore conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to measure the effects of indicated antibiotic therapy compared to routine antibiotic therapy in terms of incremental cost-per-life-year saved in Niger.

Methods

We used a cohort model to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis from a healthcare system perspective to project and weigh the lifetime discounted costs and effects of indicated antibiotic therapy compared to routine antibiotic therapy in the treatment of uncomplicated severe wasting in children in Niger. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of treatment-related healthcare costs per discounted life-years saved (LYS), and conducted program coverage scenario and sensitivity analyses to assess model uncertainty.

Results

The ICER for indicated antibiotic therapy compared to routine antibiotic therapy was $8.5/LYS, which is under the cost-effectiveness threshold for Niger. The probability of the indicated strategy being optimal was 76.1% when program coverage was equal to coverage associated with routine therapy but was 100% likely to be optimal in probabilistic sensitivity analysis scenarios where indicated program coverage improved 5 percentage points.

Conclusions

Indicated antibiotic therapy likely represents a cost-effective strategy, particularly if indicated treatment can result in expanded coverage. With the risk of increasing antibiotic resistance worldwide, antibiotic stewardship and simplified treatment protocols for severe wasting using indicated antibiotic therapy may represent good value for money in some low risk populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00374-z.

Development and validation of the age-associated dementia policy (AgeD-Pol) computer simulation model in the USA and Europe

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a novel, microsimulation model that accounts for the prevalence and incidence of age-associated dementias (AAD), disease progression and associated mortality.

DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND OUTCOME MEASURES

We developed the AAD policy (AgeD-Pol) model, a microsimulation model to simulate the natural history, morbidity and mortality associated with AAD. We populated the model with age-stratified and sex-stratified data on AAD prevalence, AAD incidence and mortality among people with AAD. We first performed internal validation using data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) cohort study. We then performed external validation of the model using data from the Framingham Heart Study, the Rotterdam Study and Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We compared model-projected AAD cumulative incidence and mortality with published cohort data using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

In internal validation, the AgeD-Pol model provided a good fit to the ACT cohort for cumulative AAD incidence, 10.4% (MAPE, 0.2%) and survival, 66.5% (MAPE, 8.8%), after 16 years of follow-up among those initially aged 65-69 years. In the external validations, the model-projected lifetime cumulative incidence of AAD was 30.5%-32.4% (females) and 16.7%-23.0% (males), using data from the Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts, and AAD cumulative incidence was 21.5% over 14 years using KPNC data. Model projections demonstrated a good fit to all three cohorts (MAPE, 0.9%-9.0%). Similarly, model-projected survival provided good fit to the Rotterdam (RMSE, 1.9-3.6 among those with and without AAD) and KPNC cohorts (RMSE, 7.6-18.0 among those with AAD).

CONCLUSIONS

The AgeD-Pol model performed well when validated to published data for AAD cumulative incidence and mortality and provides a useful tool to project the AAD disease burden for health systems planning in the USA.

Affordability and Value in Decision Rules for Cost-Effectiveness: A Survey of Health Economists

OBJECTIVES

New health technologies are often expensive, but may nevertheless meet standard thresholds for cost effectiveness, a situation exemplified by recent hepatitis C cures. Currently, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) does not supply practical means of weighing trade-offs between cost-effectiveness and affordability, particularly when costs and benefits are temporally separated and in health systems with multiple payers, such as the United States. We formally characterized disagreements in CEA theory and identified how these trade-offs are presently addressed in practice.

METHODS

We surveyed 170 health economics researchers.

RESULTS

When presented with a hypothetical cost-effective drug therapy in the United States that would require 20% of a state's Medicaid budget over 5 years, 34% of survey respondents recommended that policy makers fund the drug for all patients and 26% for a subset. By contrast, 26% recommended against funding the drug. We found additional disagreement regarding whether the willingness-to-pay threshold should be based on the budget (42%) or societal preferences (41%) and identified 4 approaches to weighing cost-effectiveness and affordability. A total of 61% of respondents did not believe that the threshold used in their last article (most often 1×-3× per capita gross domestic product) represented either the budget or societal willingness-to-pay threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

We use these findings to recommend metrics that can inform translation of CEA theory into practice. By contextualizing cost and value, researchers can provide more actionable policy recommendations.

Trends in Author-Reported Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds in the United States from 1995 to 2018: Implications for Discount Rates

Background

Decisions based on cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) using equal discount rates for health and cost outcomes are consistent with using a constant cost-effectiveness threshold over time. We sought to analyze trends in author-reported cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) thresholds from CEAs published for the US setting over 24 y to retrospectively assess whether the recommended equal discount rates for costs and health were consistent with trends in the CEA literature.

Methods

We used the Tufts CEA Registry to assess whether author-reported cost-effectiveness thresholds changed in CEAs published for the US setting between 1995 and 2018 and back-calculated the implied discount rate for health based on these trends for inflation-adjusted cost-effectiveness thresholds and an annual discount rate for costs of 3%.

Results

We found 1995 CEAs published for the US setting and found that average nominal and inflation-adjusted cost-effectiveness thresholds increased over that time period. The discount rate for health would need to equal 2.43% to 2.48% (depending on the subset of CEAs analyzed) to be consistent with the observed trends in inflation-adjusted author-reported cost-effectiveness thresholds. We also found that restricting our analysis to currency years between 1995 and 2014 would result in a back-calculated discount rate for health of 2.99% to 3.28%.

Conclusions

We found that CEA researchers have implicitly assumed that inflation-adjusted cost-effectiveness thresholds in the United States have been increasing over time (1995–2018), which is inconsistent with the recommended and prevailing choice of equal discount rates for health and cost outcomes. Our results are sensitive to the cutoff year used in the analysis.

Highlights

We show visually and through equations that the recommended and prevailing practice of using equal discount rates for cost and health outcomes in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) logically implies a constant inflation-adjusted cost-effectiveness threshold over time. Using data from the Tufts CEA Registry, we found that author-reported cost-effectiveness thresholds used in CEAs published for the US setting with currency years between 1995 and 2018 increased over time (both with and without adjustment for inflation). Assuming an annual discount rate for costs equal to 3%, the discount rate for health would need to equal approximately 2.5% to preserve consistency across decisions taken at different dates given the observed trends in inflation-adjusted author-reported cost-effectiveness thresholds. This finding depends on the cutoff year used in the analysis (data from currency years 1995–2014 would support use of equal discount rates, whereas data after 2014 would suggest a sharper trend toward increasing cost-effectiveness thresholds).

COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for All Adults: An Optimal U.S. Approach?

In this commentary, the authors discuss the potential benefits and harms of boosters in response to a boosters-for-all policy for Americans, as well as provide 3 plausible alternative strategies.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission by HIV Risk Group and Along the HIV Care Continuum: A Contrast of 6 US Cities

BACKGROUND

Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year.

RESULTS

Individuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore.

CONCLUSION

These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

Optimizing Small, Low-Risk, Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Treatment Using Game Theory

The incidental diagnosis of unruptured intracranial aneurysms has been increasing in the past several decades. A significant proportion represent small, low-risk, unruptured intracranial aneurysms for which there is equipoise on whether to offer treatment or conservative management. Given this uncertainty, patients may not always be comfortable with their physicians' recommendations. Herein, we use game theory to study the interactions between physicians and patients to determine how conflict and cooperation affect the management of small, low-risk, unruptured intracranial aneurysms. We constructed a game theory model of the interaction between physicians and patients with respect to decision-making for a small, low-risk, unruptured intracranial aneurysm in an asymptomatic patient when there is perceived equipoise between whether to treat or manage conservatively. Assuming that both the physician and patient are rational and eliciting individual patient preferences is not practical, the physician should play the game based on an ex ante probability of meeting a patient with a certain type of preference. This recommendation means that the expectations of the physician regarding the patient's preferences should guide the decision to offer treatment or conservative management as a first option for a small, asymptomatic, low-risk, unruptured intracranial aneurysm for which there is clinical equipoise.

Evidence-based cardiovascular magnetic resonance cost-effectiveness calculator for the detection of significant coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Although prior reports have evaluated the clinical and cost impacts of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) for low-to-intermediate-risk patients with suspected significant coronary artery disease (CAD), the cost-effectiveness of CMR compared to relevant comparators remains poorly understood. We aimed to summarize the cost-effectiveness literature on CMR for CAD and create a cost-effectiveness calculator, useable worldwide, to approximate the cost-per-quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) of CMR and relevant comparators with context-specific patient-level and system-level inputs.

METHODS

We searched the Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry and PubMed for cost-per-QALY or cost-per-life-year-saved studies of CMR to detect significant CAD. We also developed a linear regression meta-model (CMR Cost-Effectiveness Calculator) based on a larger CMR cost-effectiveness simulation model that can approximate CMR lifetime discount cost, QALY, and cost effectiveness compared to relevant comparators [such as single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)] or invasive coronary angiography.

RESULTS

CMR was cost-effective for evaluation of significant CAD (either health-improving and cost saving or having a cost-per-QALY or cost-per-life-year result lower than the cost-effectiveness threshold) versus its relevant comparator in 10 out of 15 studies, with 3 studies reporting uncertain cost effectiveness, and 2 studies showing CCTA was optimal. Our cost-effectiveness calculator showed that CCTA was not cost-effective in the US compared to CMR when the most recent publications on imaging performance were included in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on current world-wide evidence in the literature, CMR usually represents a cost-effective option compared to relevant comparators to assess for significant CAD.

Smartphone-based DIY home microsurgical training with 3D printed microvascular clamps and Japanese noodles

We have recently incorporated simple modifications of the konjac flour noodle model to enable DIY home microsurgical training by (i) placing a smartphone on a mug to act as a microscope with at least 3.5-5x magnification, and (ii) rather than cannulating with a 22G needle as described by others, we have found that cannulation with a 23G needle followed by a second pass with an 18G needle will create a lumen (approx. 0.83 mm) without an overly thick and unrealistic "vessel" wall. The current set-up however, did not allow realistic evaluation of anastomotic patency as the noodles became macerated after application of standard microvascular clamps, which also did not facilitate practice of back-wall anastomoses. In order to simulate the actual operative environment as much as possible, we introduced the use of 3D printed microvascular clamps. These were modified from its previous iteration (suitable for use in silastic and chicken thigh vessels) and video recordings were submitted for internal validation by senior surgeons. A "wet" operative field where the knojac noodle lumen can be distended or collapsed, unlike other non-living models, was noted by senior surgeons. With the 3D clamps, the noodle could now be flipped over for back-wall anastomosis and allowed patency testing upon completion as it did not become macerated, unlike that from clinical microvascular clamps. The perceived advantages of this model are numerous. Not only does it comply with the 3Rs of simulation-based training, it can also reduce the associated costs of training by up to a hundred-fold or more when compared to a traditional rat course, and potentially, be extended to low-middle income countries (LMICs) without routine access to microsurgical training for capacity development. That it can be utilised remotely also bodes well with the current limitations on face to-face training due to COVID restrictions and lockdowns.

Cost-Consequence Analysis of Advanced Imaging in Acute Ischemic Stroke Care

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to illustrate the potential costs and health consequences of implementing advanced CT angiography and perfusion (CTAP) as the initial imaging in patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) symptoms at a comprehensive stroke center (CSC).

Methods: A decision-simulation model based on the American Heart Association's recommendations for AIS care pathways was developed to assess imaging strategies for a 5-year period from the institutional perspective. The following strategies were compared: (1) advanced CTAP imaging: NCCT + CTA + CT perfusion at the time of presentation; (2) standard-of-care: non-contrast CT (NCCT) at the time of presentation, with CT angiography (CTA) ± CT perfusion only in select patients (initial imaging to exclude hemorrhage and extensive ischemia) for mechanical thrombectomy (MT) evaluation. Model parameters were defined with evidence-based data. Cost-consequence and sensitivity analyses were performed. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days was used as the outcome measure.

Results: The decision-simulation modeling revealed that adoption of the advanced CTAP imaging increased per-patient imaging costs by 1.19% ($9.28/$779.72), increased per-patient treatment costs by 33.25% ($729.96/$2,195.24), and decreased other per-patient acute care costs by 0.7% (–$114.12/$16,285.85). The large increase in treatment costs was caused by higher proportion of patients being treated. However, improved outcomes lowered the other per-patient acute care costs. Over the five-year period, advanced CTAP imaging led to 1.63% (66/4,040) more patients with good outcomes (90-day mRS 0-2), 2.23% (66/2,960) fewer patients with poor outcomes (90-day mRS 3-5), and no change in mortality (90-day mRS 6). Our CT equipment utilization analysis showed that the demand for CT equipment in terms of scanner time (minutes) was 24% lower in the advanced CTAP imaging strategy compared to the standard-of-care strategy. The number of EVT procedures performed at the CSC may increase by 50%.

Conclusions: Our study reveals that adoption of advanced CTAP imaging at presentation increases the demand for treatment of acute ischemic stroke patients as more patients are diagnosed within the treatment time window compared to standard-of-care imaging. Advanced imaging also leads to more patients with good functional outcomes and fewer patients with dependent functional status.

Low vitamin D levels and prognosis in a COVID-19 pediatric population: a systematic review

We aim to study the relationship between vitamin D level, risk and severity of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) infection in pediatric population through systematic review. We searched PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Google Scholar from December 2019 to June 2021 for retrieving articles studying association between vitamin D deficiencies with COVID-19. Qualitative details were synthesized in evidence table and quantitative data was used for deriving pooled estimate through meta-analysis. After initial search of 2261 articles, eight eligible studies (two reviews) were included in the systematic review. Meta-analysis of the quantitative data (six studies) showed pooled prevalence of vitamin D deficiency as 45.91% (95% CI: 25.148-67.450). In infected pediatric patients, low levels of vitamin D increased the risk of severe disease (odds ratio-5.5; 95% CI: 1.560-19.515; P = 0.008). It was also found that children and adolescents having vitamin D deficiency had greater risk of COVID infection as compared to patients with normal vitamin D levels. Improvement in disease severity with vitamin D supplementation was also noted. The systematic review showed that almost half of the pediatric COVID patients suffer from vitamin D deficiency. It is also clear that the low level of vitamin D is associated with greater risk of infection and poorer outcome in pediatrics.

Attributing health benefits to preventing HIV infections versus improving health outcomes among people living with HIV: an analysis in six US cities

OBJECTIVE

Combination strategies generate health benefits through improved health outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) and prevention of new infections. We aimed to determine health benefits attributable to improved health among PLHIV versus HIV prevention for a set of combination strategies in six US cities.

DESIGN

A dynamic HIV transmission model.

METHODS

Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City (NYC) and Seattle, we assessed the health benefits of city-specific optimal combinations of evidence-based interventions implemented at publicly documented levels and at ideal (90% coverage) scale-up (2020-2030 implementation, 20-year study period). We calculated the proportion of health benefit gains (measured as quality-adjusted life-years) resulting from averted and delayed HIV infections; improved health outcomes among PLHIV; and improved health outcomes due to medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD).

RESULTS

The HIV-specific proportion of total benefits ranged from 68.3% (95% credible interval: 55.3-80.0) in Seattle to 98.5% (97.5-99.3) in Miami, with the rest attributable to MOUD. The majority of HIV-specific health benefits in five of six cities were attributable HIV prevention, and ranged from 33.1% (26.1-41.1) in NYC to 83.1% (79.6-86.6) in Atlanta. Scaling up to ideal service levels resulted in three to seven-fold increases in additional health benefits, mostly from MOUD, with HIV-specific health gains primarily driven by HIV prevention.

CONCLUSION

Optimal combination strategies generated a larger proportion of health benefits attributable to HIV prevention in five of six cities, underlining the substantial benefits of antiretroviral therapy engagement for the prevention of HIV transmission through viral suppression. Understanding to whom benefits accrue may be important in assessing the equity and impact of HIV investments.

Rescan Time Delays in Ischemic Stroke Imaging: A Retrospective Observation and Analysis of Causes and Clinical Impact

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Delays to reperfusion negatively impact outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke, yet current guidelines recommend selective sequential imaging for thrombectomy candidates. We aimed to quantify and analyze time delays associated with rescanning in sequential acute stroke imaging.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent imaging for treatment decision-making from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2020. Rescan time delay was defined as ≥10-minute difference between initial NCCT and CTA ± CTP. Mean rescan time delays in comprehensive and primary stroke centers were compared. Bivariate and multivariable regression analyses assessed clinical and imaging factors associated with rescanning time delays and early outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 588 patients with acute ischemic were included in statistical analyses. Rescanning occurred in 27.9% (164/588 patients), with a mean time delay of 53.7 (SD, 43.4) minutes. For patients presenting at primary compared with comprehensive stroke centers, rescan time delays were more common (59.6% versus 11.8%, P < .001), with longer delays (65.4 [SD, 45.4] minutes versus 23.6 [SD, 14.0] minutes, P < .001). Independent predictors of rescan time delays included primary stroke center presentation, intravenous thrombolysis administration, black race, admission NIHSS ≥10, baseline independent ambulation, and onset-to-comprehensive stroke center arrival in ≥6 hours. Protocols for early simultaneous comprehensive CT (NCCT + CTA + CTP) were associated with lower odds of time delays (OR = 0.34; 95% CI, 0.21-0.55). Rescanning was associated with lower odds of home discharge (OR = 0.53; 95% CI, 0.30-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

A sequential approach to CT-based imaging may be significantly associated with prolonged acute stroke evaluations. Adoption of early simultaneous comprehensive CT could minimize treatment delays and improve outcomes.

Improving health equity and ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis in six cities

BACKGROUND

In the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities.

METHODS

We adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach.

FINDINGS

In all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4-5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4-134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3-55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4-940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles.

INTERPRETATION

Equity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA.

FUNDING

National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Cost-Effectiveness Study of Initial Imaging Selection in Acute Ischemic Stroke Care

PURPOSE

National guidelines recommend prompt identification of candidates for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) treatment, requiring timely neuroimaging with CT and/or MRI. CT is often preferred because of its widespread availability and rapid acquisition. Despite higher diagnostic accuracy of MRI, it commonly involves complex workflows that could potentially cause treatment time delays. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact on outcomes of imaging utilization before treatment decisions at comprehensive stroke centers for patients presenting with suspected AIS in the anterior circulation with last-known-well-to-arrival time 0 to 24 hours.

METHODS

A decision simulation model based on the American Heart Association's recommendations for AIS care pathways was developed from a health care perspective to compare initial imaging strategies: (1) stepwise-CT: noncontrast CT (NCCT) at the time of presentation, with CT angiography (CTA) ± CT perfusion (CTP) only in select patients (initial imaging to exclude hemorrhage and extensive ischemia) for mechanical thrombectomy (MT) evaluation; (2) stepwise-hybrid: NCCT at the time of presentation, with MR angiography (MRA) ± MR perfusion (MRP) only for MT evaluation; (3) stepwise-advanced: NCCT + CTA at presentation, with MR diffusion-weighted imaging (MR DWI) + MRP only for MT evaluation; (4) comprehensive-CT: NCCT + CTA + CTP at the time of presentation; and (5) comprehensive-MR: MR DWI + MRA + MRP at the time of presentation. Model parameters were defined using evidence-based data. Cost-effectiveness and sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness analyses revealed that comprehensive-CT and comprehensive-MR yield the highest lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (4.81 and 4.82, respectively). However, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of comprehensive-MR is $233,000/QALY compared with comprehensive-CT. Stepwise-CT, stepwise-hybrid, and stepwise-advanced strategies are dominated, yielding lower QALYs and higher costs compared with comprehensive-CT.

CONCLUSIONS

Performing comprehensive-CT at presentation is the most cost-effective initial imaging strategy at comprehensive stroke centers.

Access to Mechanical Thrombectomy for Ischemic Stroke in the United States

[Figure: see text].

"Ending the Epidemic" Will Not Happen Without Addressing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in the United States Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic

We estimated human immunodeficiency virus incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for black and Hispanic vs white populations in 6 cities in the United States (2020-2030). Large reductions in incidence are possible, but without elimination of disparities in healthcare access, we found that wide disparities persisted for black compared with white populations in particular (lowest IRR, 1.69 [95% credible interval, 1.19-2.30]).

Ending the HIV Epidemic Among Persons Who Inject Drugs: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Six US Cities

BACKGROUND

Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities.

METHODS

Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US).

RESULTS

Combinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

Estimating (quality-adjusted) life-year losses associated with deaths: With application to COVID-19

Many epidemiological models of the COVID-19 pandemic have focused on preventing deaths. Questions have been raised as to the frailty of those succumbing to the COVID-19 infection. In this paper we employ standard life table methods to illustrate how the potential quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) losses associated with COVID-19 fatalities could be estimated, while adjusting for comorbidities in terms of impact on both mortality and quality of life. Contrary to some suggestions in the media, we find that even relatively elderly patients with high levels of comorbidity can still lose substantial life years and QALYs. The simplicity of the method facilitates straightforward international comparisons as the pandemic evolves. In particular, we compare five different countries and show that differences in the average QALY losses for each COVID-19 fatality is driven mainly by differing age distributions for those dying of the disease.

Cost-effectiveness microsimulation of catheter-directed thrombolysis in submassive pulmonary embolism using a right ventricular function model

Approximately 30-50% of hemodynamically stable patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have evidence of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. These patients are classified as submassive PE and the role of reperfusion therapy remains unclear. We sought to identify the circumstances under which catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) would represent high-value care for submassive PE. We used a computer-based, individual-level, state-transition model with one million simulated patients to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the treatment of submassive PE with CDT followed by anticoagulation to treatment with anticoagulation alone. Because RV function impacts prognosis and is commonly used in PE outcomes research, our model used RV dysfunction to differentiate health states. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify model uncertainty. Our base case analysis generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $119,326 per quality adjusted life year. Sensitivity analyses resulted in ICERs consistent with high-value care when CDT conferred a reduction in the absolute probability of RV dysfunction of 3.5% or more. CDT yielded low-value ICERs if the absolute reduction was less than 1.56%. Our model suggests that catheter-directed thrombolytics represents high-value care compared to anticoagulation alone when CDT offers an absolute improvement in RV dysfunction of 3.5% or more, but there is substantial uncertainly around these results. We estimated the monetary value of clarifying the costs and consequences surrounding RV dysfunction after submassive PE to be approximately $268 million annually, suggesting further research in this area could be highly valuable.

Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The ambitious goals of the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative will require a targeted, context-specific public health response. Model-based economic evaluation provides useful guidance for decision making while characterizing decision uncertainty. We aim to quantify the value of eliminating uncertainty about different parameters in selecting combination implementation strategies to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS in 6 US cities and identify future data collection priorities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic compartmental HIV transmission model developed for 6 US cities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of combination implementation strategies. Using a metamodeling approach with nonparametric and deep learning methods, we calculated the expected value of perfect information, representing the maximum value of further research to eliminate decision uncertainty, and the expected value of partial perfect information for key groups of parameters that would be collected together in practice.

RESULTS

The population expected value of perfect information ranged from $59 683 (Miami) to $54 108 679 (Los Angeles). The rank ordering of expected value of partial perfect information on key groups of parameters were largely consistent across cities and highest for parameters pertaining to HIV risk behaviors, probability of HIV transmission, health service engagement, HIV-related mortality, health utility weights, and healthcare costs. Los Angeles was an exception, where parameters on retention in pre-exposure prophylaxis ranked highest in contributing to decision uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Funding additional data collection on HIV/AIDS may be warranted in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York City. Value of information analysis should be embedded into decision-making processes on funding future research and public health intervention.

Carotid artery plaque characteristics: current reporting practices on CT angiography

PURPOSE

Extracranial ICA imaging has largely focused on the degree of luminal stenosis, but recent advances suggest specific plaque features are crucial in stroke risk assessment. We evaluated the current state of reporting carotid plaque features on neck CTAs at an academic institution.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study, we included neck CTAs performed on patients over age 50 with any reported carotid plaque. We evaluated reports for mention of the following: degree of luminal stenosis, soft plaque, calcified plaque, plaque thickness, quantification of soft and calcified plaque, plaque ulceration, and increased risk associated with specific features. We used Fisher's exact test to compare how often each feature was mentioned.

RESULTS

We included a total of 651 reports from unique patients (mean age, 68.1 ± 13.3 years). A total of 639 reports (98.1%) explicitly mentioned degree of stenosis per NASCET criteria. Specific plaque features were less frequently characterized: soft plaque in 116 (17.8%); calcified plaque in 166 (25.5%); quantification of the amount of soft plaque and calcified plaque in 24 (3.7%) and 16 (2.5%) reports, respectively; plaque thickness in 12 (1.8%); plaque ulceration in 476 (73.1%); and increased risk associated with plaque in 2 (0.3%). Degree of stenosis was statistically more likely to be mentioned than any other plaque feature (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Currently, nearly all reports mention the degree of luminal stenosis on neck CTAs while a significant minority mention specific plaque features. Despite mounting evidence of the importance of carotid plaque features in stroke risk assessment, radiology reports do not routinely report these findings.

Cost-effectiveness of Mechanical Thrombectomy More Than 6 Hours After Symptom Onset Among Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

IMPORTANCE

Two 2018 randomized controlled trials (DAWN and DEFUSE 3) demonstrated the clinical benefit of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) more than 6 hours after onset in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Health-economic evidence is needed to determine whether the short-term health benefits of late MT translate to a cost-effective option during a lifetime in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the cost-effectiveness of 2 strategies (MT added to standard medical care [SMC] vs SMC alone) for various subgroups of patients with AIS receiving care more than 6 hours after symptom onset.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This economic evaluation study used the results of the DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials to populate a cost-effectiveness model from a US health care perspective combining a decision tree and Markov trace. The DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials enrolled 206 international patients from 2014 to 2017 and 182 US patients from 2016 to 2017, respectively. Patients were followed until 3 months after stroke. The clinical outcome at 3 months was available for 29 subgroups of patients with AIS and anterior circulation large vessel occlusions. Data analysis was conducted from July 2018 to October 2019.

EXPOSURES

MT with SMC in the extended treatment window vs SMC alone.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Expected costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) during lifetime were estimated. Deterministic results (incremental costs and effectiveness, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and net monetary benefit) were presented, and probabilistic analyses were performed for the total populations and 27 patient subgroups.

RESULTS

In the DAWN study, the MT group had a mean (SD) age of 69.4 (14.1) years and 42 of 107 (39.3%) were men, and the control group had a mean (SD) age of 70.7 (13.2) years and 51 of 99 (51.5%) were men. In the DEFUSE 3 study, the MT group had a median (interquartile range) age of 70 (59-79) years, and 46 of 92 (50.0%) were men, and the control group had a median (interquartile range) age of 71 (59-80) years, and 44 of 90 (48.9%) were men. For the total trial population, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $662/QALY and $13 877/QALY based on the DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials, respectively. MT with SMC beyond 6 hours had a probability greater than 99.9% of being cost-effective vs SMC alone at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. Subgroup analyses showed a wide range of probabilities for MT with SMC to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/QALY, with the greatest uncertainty observed for patients with a National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score of at least 16 and for those aged 80 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this study suggest that late MT added to SMC is cost-effective in all subgroups evaluated in the DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials, with most results being robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Future MT evidence-gathering could focus on older patients and those with National Institute of Health Stroke Scale scores of 16 and greater.