Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Concordance between CDKN2A homozygous deletion and MTAP immunohistochemical loss in fluoroedenite-induced pleural mesothelioma: An immunohistochemical and molecular study on a single-institution series

Fluoroedenite-induced pleural mesothelioma (FE-induced-PM) is a rare and small subset of PM that shares with its asbestos-induced counterpart the same aggressive biological behavior and poor prognosis, but that differs from it from a pathogenetic point of view as it is associated with exposure to fluoroedenite, a carcinogenic agent that shows similarities with tremolite amphibolic asbestos fibers. Although it has been demonstrated that asbestos-induced PMs frequently harbor CDKN2A homozygous deletion and that the immunohistochemical loss of MTAP may represent a cheap and reliable surrogate marker for this molecular alteration, little is known about the molecular landscape and the reliability of MTAP immunohistochemistry in this peculiar subset of PM. The study herein presented investigated the prevalence of CDKN2A homozygous deletion and its concordance with MTAP immunohistochemical status on a cohort of 10 cases of FE-induced-PM from patients with environmental exposure to FE fibers, who were residents in the small town of Biancavilla (Sicily, Italy) or nearby areas. CDKN2A homozygous deletions were found in 3 out of 10 cases (30%) and all these cases showed concomitant cytoplasmic loss of MTAP with a concordance rate of 100%. Despite the relatively low number of cases included in our series, MTAP immunohistochemistry seemed to represent a reliable immunohistochemical surrogate marker of CDKNA homozygous deletion even in this subset of PMs.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Decade-long insights: tracking asbestos-related health impacts among formerly exposed workers in Palermo, Italy

Background

Asbestos is a foremost occupational carcinogen globally. Despite the prohibition under Law 257/1992, Italy persists as one of the European nations most burdened by asbestos-related diseases (ARDs). This research assessed ARD cases in asbestosexposed workers from the Province of Palermo, Italy, spanning 2010-2021.

Methods

Data acquisition utilized the epidemiological dataset from the 'Service of Prevention and Safety on Work Environment' under the Prevention Department of Palermo's Local Health Authority (LHA).

Results

Between 2010 and 2021, we identified 245 ARD instances, comprising 163 Asbestosis/Pleural plaques, 41 Lung Cancers, 38 Mesotheliomas, and 3 unspecified cases. Multivariate analysis indicated a notable decline in temporal exposure for mesothelioma (HR=0.933; 95% CI=0.902-0.965) and lung cancer (HR=0.93; 95% CI=0.90-0.978) relative to pleural plaques/asbestosis. Tobacco use displayed a pronounced correlation with lung cancer (smoker HR=64.520 95% CI=13,075-318.390; former smoker HR=20.917 95% CI=4,913-89.048). A significant link was observed between mesothelioma and pleural plaques/asbestosis in those employed in shipbuilding and repair (HR=0.371 95% CI=0.155-0.892).

Conclusions

ARDs persist in clinical observations, even following the 1992 cessation of asbestos-related activities, emphasizing an enduring public health challenge. Enhancing prevention strategies is paramount, focusing on amplifying anamnestic and occupational data collection, thereby facilitating superior early diagnosis strategies for these maladies in the occupationally exposed cohort.

Mesothelin methylation, soluble mesothelin related protein levels and inflammation profiling in workers chronically exposed to naturally occurring asbestos fibers

Exposure to asbestiform fibers, including chrysotile and amphibole, is carcinogenic, causing malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) when inhaled. Some populations globally face Naturally Occurring Asbestos (NOA) exposure, leading to MPM cases like in Biancavilla, Italy, from Fluoro-edenite (FE) contamination. Studies show NOA exposure causes epigenetic changes, focusing on mesothelin methylation, an MPM marker, and altered inflammation, emphasizing the health risks of FE and asbestos. This research, conducted from February 2022 to October 2022, studied 125 construction workers from Biancavilla and 125 controls from 40 km away without Biancavilla work history. With at least ten years in construction and no respiratory conditions, participants underwent medical assessments and gave blood samples for analysis, including inflammation markers, mesothelin methylation, and soluble mesothelin-related protein levels. The results showed similar demographics but differing inflammation and methylation levels in exposed workers, suggesting long-term cellular changes. Pearson correlation showed intricate biomarker relationships. Significant inflammatory differences were found between FE exposed and non-exposed workers, indicating potential health impacts from FE. This raises concerns for communities like Biancavilla, emphasizing the importance of extensive epigenetic research for public health.

Influenza immunization of healthcare personnel in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era: Still a lot to do!

Healthcare-associated influenza is frequently encountered in healthcare settings with significant morbidity and mortality among vulnerable patients, absenteeism among healthcare personnel (HCP), and interruption of healthcare services. Numerous investigations indicate that nosocomial outbreaks are often traced to HCP. Despite the international and national endorsements, seasonal influenza vaccine acceptance among HCP continues suboptimal worldwide. Infection control is the major objective for healthcare risk management in order to guarantee patient safety, limit the cost of hospitalization and assurance health management in controlling influenza seasons. Vigilance and anticipation are required as globally we are moving from a reactive COVID-19 pandemic response phase to one of planning for the co-circulation of viral respiratory infections. Declining to understand HCP perception of influenza risk and acceptance of vaccination might have impact patient safety as well as healthcare services.

Absenteeism of Healthcare Personnel in the COVID-19 Era: A Systematic Review of the Literature and Implications for the Post-Pandemic Seasons

This systematic review aimed to assess COVID-19-associated absenteeism among healthcare personnel (HCP). PubMed was searched on 4 February 2023. Inclusion criteria were the presentation of original data on COVID-19-associated absenteeism among HCP. Exclusion criteria were absenteeism associated with burnout, mental health illness, post-COVID syndrome, or child-care. Nineteen articles were identified; fifteen concerned almost exclusively the first pandemic year. Hospitals accounted for most data. There was heterogeneity across studies in terms of presentation of absenteeism data. Before COVID-19 vaccines became available, COVID-19 was a major driver of HCP absenteeism with excess costs, while the mean duration of absenteeism ranged from 5.82 to 33 days per episode of absence. Determinant factors of absenteeism rates were department of employment, high-risk exposure, age, profession, and work experience of HCP, suspected COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 testing, SARS-CoV-2 positivity, and return-to-work strategy. Two studies demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduced the burden of absenteeism. Routine testing of asymptomatic HCP and use of personal protective equipment also significantly ameliorated absenteeism. In conclusion, COVID-19 has been a major driver of HCP absenteeism. Research is needed to assess how COVID-19 will impact HCP in the next years, considering the new SARS-CoV-2 variants, the co-circulation of other respiratory viruses, and the newer COVID-19 vaccines. Networks are needed to survey morbidity and absenteeism among HCP in real-time and guide vaccination policies.

Keratinocytes Exposed to Blue or Red Light: Proteomic Characterization Showed Cytoplasmic Thioredoxin Reductase 1 and Aldo-Keto Reductase Family 1 Member C3 Triggered Expression

Several cell-signaling mechanisms are activated by visible light radiation in human keratinocytes, but the key regulatory proteins involved in this specific cellular response have not yet been identified. Human keratinocytes (HaCaT cells) were exposed to blue or red light at low or high irradiance for 3 days in cycles of 12 h of light and 12 h of dark. The cell viability, apoptotic rate and cell cycle progression were analyzed in all experimental conditions. The proteomic profile, oxidative stress and mitochondrial morphology were additionally evaluated in the HaCaT cells following exposure to high-irradiance blue or red light. Low-irradiance blue or red light exposure did not show an alteration in the cell viability, cell death or cell cycle progression. High-irradiance blue or red light reduced the cell viability, induced cell death and cell cycle G2/M arrest, increased the reactive oxygen species (ROS) and altered the mitochondrial density and morphology. The proteomic profile revealed a pivotal role of Cytoplasmic thioredoxin reductase 1 (TXNRD1) and Aldo-keto reductase family 1 member C3 (AKR1C3) in the response of the HaCaT cells to high-irradiance blue or red light exposure. Blue or red light exposure affected the viability of keratinocytes, activating a specific oxidative stress response and inducing mitochondrial dysfunction. Our results can help to address the targets for the therapeutic use of light and to develop adequate preventive strategies for skin damage. This in vitro study supports further in vivo investigations of the biological effects of light on human keratinocytes.

Expression of stathmin in asbestos-like fibers-induced mesothelioma: A preliminary report

BACKGROUND

Mesothelioma is strongly associated with exposure to asbestos fibers, however, recent studies have also linked exposure to "naturally occurring asbestos" fibers with this disease. Fluoro-edenite, a silicate mineral found in the southeast of Biancavilla (Sicily, Italy), has been identified as a potential risk factor for mesothelioma. Unfortunately, this cancer often has a poor prognosis, and current diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers are inadequate. Histological subtype, gender, and age at diagnosis are the most significant parameters for mesothelioma. Stathmin, a cytosolic protein that regulates cell growth and migration and is overexpressed in many human malignancies, has not yet been linked to mesothelioma survival or clinical-pathological variables.

AIM

The aim of this study was to investigate the immunohistochemical expression of stathmin in ten mesothelioma tissue samples with available clinical and follow-up data.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Paraffin-embedded tissue samples from ten mesothelioma patients were processed for immunohistochemical analyses to evaluate stathmin expression.

RESULTS

Our findings suggest that stathmin overexpression is associated with shorter overall survival in patients with mesothelioma. Furthermore, stathmin expression was significantly correlated with the survival time of mesothelioma patients.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that stathmin expression may serve as a potential prognostic biomarker for mesothelioma. This biomarker could be used to promptly identify patients with poor prognosis and to guide clinicians in the selection of treatment options.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Hepatitis B and C in Europe: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19·10]) and mortality rate (-33·19% [-37·82 to -28·13]) of HBV-related cirrhosis also decreased in this time period. The age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis C decreased by 3·24% (1·17 to 5·02) and its age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 35·73% (23·48 to 47·75) between 2010 and 2019; the age-standardised prevalence rate (-6·37% [-8·11 to -4·32]), incidence rate (-5·87% [-11·24 to -1·01]), and mortality rate (-11·11% [-16·54 to -5·53]) of HCV-related cirrhosis also decreased. No significant changes were observed in age-standardised rates of HBV-related and HCV-related liver cancer, although we observed a significant increase in numbers of cases of HCV-related liver cancer across all ages between 2010 and 2019 (16·41% [2·81 to 30·91] increase in prevalent cases). Substantial reductions in DALYs since 2010 were estimated for acute hepatitis B (-27·82% [-36·92 to -20·24]), acute hepatitis C (-27·07% [-15·97 to -39·34]), and HBV-related cirrhosis (-30·70% [-35·75 to -25·03]). A moderate reduction in DALYs was estimated for HCV-related cirrhosis (-6·19% [-0·19 to -12·57]). Only HCV-related liver cancer showed a significant increase in DALYs (10·37% [4·81-16·63]). Changes in age-standardised DALY rates closely resembled those observed for overall DALY counts, except for HCV-liver related cancer (-2·84% [-7·75 to 2·63]).

INTERPRETATION

Although decreases in some HBV-related and HCV-related diseases were estimated between 2010 and 2019, HBV-related and HCV-related diseases are still associated with a high burden, highlighting the need for more intensive and coordinated interventions within European countries to reach the goal of elimination by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Unmasking the Hidden Danger: A Decade-Long Systematic Review of Case-Control Studies on Single Occupational Risks and Prostate Cancer

The present systematic review addresses the influence of occupational exposures on prostate cancer risk. Eleven studies were analyzed for a range of occupational exposures, including but not limited to firefighting, physical activity, night shift work, chemical exposure, and solar ultraviolet radiation. The results of the review reveal that firefighters exposed to harmful substances, individuals engaged in physically strenuous work, and workers with chronic night shift routines showed an increased likelihood of developing prostate cancer. Moreover, the review identified an increased risk associated with exposure to certain chemicals, including alkylphenolic compounds and benzene-related substances. The evidence underscores the importance of considering the cumulative effect of multiple risk factors in a comprehensive risk assessment. However, the conclusions indicate the necessity for further research to deepen these relationships and develop more effective strategies for the prevention of prostate cancer.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Immunohistochemical expression of cAMP in fluoroedenite‑induced malignant pleural mesothelioma: Preliminary results

Despite advances in understanding of the biology of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM), the prognosis of this malignancy remains poor. Although asbestos still remains the main pathogenic agent of MPM, other asbestos‑like fibers such as fluoro‑edenite (FE) fibers, induce MPM. Notable incidence and mortality rates of MPM have been found in Biancavilla, Italy, where FE fibers have been extracted from building materials for >50 years. Cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) is a secondary messenger that plays a key role in several physiological and pathological mechanisms regulating protein kinase A (PKA) and the CREB pathway. Hyperactivation of the cAMP/PKA/CREB pathway is involved in many neoplastic processes, including tumor cell proliferation, invasion and metastatic spread. The present study investigated immunohistochemical expression of cAMP in patients with FE‑induced MPM, which included six males and four females with an age range of 50‑93 years. There was high immunoexpression of cAMP in 5 out of 10 tumors while the remaining 5 cases showed low immunoexpression. In addition, there was a correlation between cAMP overexpression and decreased survival times (mean overall survival times, 7.5 months in high expression group vs. 18 months in low expression group).

Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990-2019: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM_2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM_2.5- and ozone-related disease. Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM_2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM_2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990-2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010-2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones. Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM_2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts.

COVID-19 vaccination refusal and suspension of work among healthy healthcare personnel in Italy: A cross-sectional study of their knowledge and attitudes toward vaccinations

Despite the initial optimistic projections from various countries and the evidence that vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reduces the associated hospitalization rates and mortality, vaccine hesitancy and refusal among healthcare personnel (HCP) became a major public health concern globally. The aim of this survey was to estimate the knowledge about the Italian Vaccination Plan for HCP and attitudes about occupational vaccinations for HCP among Italian HCP who refused COVID-19 vaccination and were suspended from work. A total of 52 HCP participated in the study. Nurses were the prevalent profession among vaccination refusers. About COVID-19, 24 (26.2%) of all responders have been involved in COVID-19 care and 21 (40.4%) had a history of COVID-19. None had received influenza and pneumococcus vaccination in the past. Knowledge of vaccinations recommended for HCP was high, ranging from 75% to 98% by vaccine. Instead, all HCP were against any mandatory vaccination policy for all HCP. Finally, most HCP questioned the expected benefits and safety of vaccines in general, raised issues of mistrust of information provided for authorities and of compliance with their HCP' vaccination recommendations. Our study indicates good knowledge of occupational vaccinations but strong anti-vaccination beliefs among Italian HCP who refused COVID-19 vaccination and were suspended from work.

Small RNA-Seq Transcriptome Profiling of Mesothelial and Mesothelioma Cell Lines Revealed microRNA Dysregulation after Exposure to Asbestos-like Fibers

Environmental exposure to fibers of respirable size has been identified as a risk for public health. Experimental evidence has revealed that a variety of fibers, including fluoro-edenite, can develop chronic respiratory diseases and elicit carcinogenic effects in humans. Fluoro-edenite (FE) is a silicate mineral first found in Biancavilla (Sicily, Italy) in 1997. Environmental exposure to its fibers has been correlated with a cluster of malignant pleural mesotheliomas. This neoplasm represents a public health problem due to its long latency and to its aggression not alerted by specific symptoms. Having several biomarkers providing us with data on the health state of those exposed to FE fibers or allowing an early diagnosis on malignant pleural mesothelioma, still asymptomatic patients, would be a remarkable goal. To these purposes, we reported the miRNA transcriptome in human normal mesothelial cell line (MeT-5A) and in the human malignant mesothelioma cell line (JU77) exposed and not exposed to FE fibers. The results showed a difference in the number of deregulated miRNAs between tumor and nontumor samples both exposed and not exposed to FE fibers. As a matter of fact, the effect of exposure to FE fibers is more evident in the expression of miRNA in the tumor samples than in the nontumor samples. In the present paper, several pathways involved in the pathogenesis of malignant pleural mesothelioma have been analyzed. We especially noticed the involvement of pathways that have important functions in inflammatory processes, angiogenesis, apoptosis, and necrosis. Besides this amount of data, further studies will be designed for the selection of the most significant miRNAs to test and validate their diagnostic potential, alone or in combination with other protein biomarkers, in high-risk individuals' liquid biopsy to have a noninvasive tool of diagnosis for this neoplasm.

Alterations in Pregnenolone and Testosterone Levels in Male Shift Workers

Steroid hormone levels are closely related to the endogenous circadian rhythm induced by sleep-wake and dark-light cycles. Shift work that disrupts the circadian rhythm may influence the levels of steroid hormones. The association between shift work and alterations in female sex steroid hormone levels has been studied, but little is known about testosterone and its precursor pregnenolone levels in male shift workers. The present study investigated serum pregnenolone and testosterone levels in a group of shift and daytime male workers. All participants were sampled at the beginning of the morning shift. Lower levels of serum pregnenolone and total testosterone were found in the shift workers compared to the daytime workers. Variations in pregnenolone levels may have consequences for well-being, and they might produce consequences for the levels of hormones downstream of the steroid hormone cascade, such as testosterone. The low levels of testosterone found in shift workers demonstrate the perturbative effect of shift work on testosterone serum levels, which may be independent and/or related to pregnenolone synthesis.

Evaluation of Cardiovascular Activity and Emotional Experience in Healthcare Workers (HCWs) Operating in COVID-19 Wards

The new 2019 coronavirus or SARS-CoV-2 has been the first biological agent to generate, in this millennium, such a global health emergency as to determine the adoption of public health measures. During this sanitary emergency, the emotional experience of healthcare workers (HCWs) has been hugely tested by several factors. In fact, HCWs have been exposed to greatly tiring physical, psychological and social conditions. The authors investigated the cardiocirculatory activity of a group of HCWs as well as how they perceived stress while working in COVID-19 wards. In particular, every HCW underwent a medical check, an electrocardiographic base exam, systolic and diastolic pressure measurement, and cardio frequency measurement. Furthermore, each HCW was provided with a cardiac Holter device (HoC) and a pressure Holter (Hop). Some psychological factors were considered in order to quantify the stress perceived by each HCW while at work through the administration of two questionnaires: the "Social Stigma towards Patients due to COVID Scale (SSPCS)" and the "Professional Quality of Life Scale (ProQOL)". The HoC and HoP analysis results for HCWs working in COVID-19 OU wards showed significant variations in cardiocirculatory activity. From the analysis of the SSPCS questionnaire answers, it is clear that all of them showed a sense of duty towards their patients. The analysis of the ProQOL questionnaire answers showed that the prevailing attitude is fear; however, HCWs did not absolutely discriminate against those who had COVID-19 nor did they refuse to help those in need. Continuous monitoring of these employees, also carried out through occupational medicine surveillance, allows for the detection of critical conditions and the implementation of actions aimed at preventing chronic processes.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Vaccination policies for healthcare personnel: Current challenges and future perspectives

Healthcare personnel (HCP) are at occupational risk for acquisition of several vaccine-preventable diseases and transmission to patients. Vaccinations of HCP are justified to confer them immunity but also to protect susceptible patients and healthcare services from outbreaks, HCP absenteeism and presenteeism. Mandatory vaccination policies for HCP are increasingly adopted and achieve high and sustainable vaccination rates in short term. In this article we review the scientific evidence for HCP vaccination. We also address issues pertaining to vaccination policies for HCP and present the challenges of implementation of mandatory versus voluntary vaccination policies. Finally, we discuss the issue of mandatory vaccination of HCP against COVID-19.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time.

Methods

Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated.

Findings

In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 - 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432-912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9-412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (-29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (-27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs.

Interpretation

Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people.

Funding

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Vaccination coverage rates and attitudes towards mandatory vaccinations among healthcare personnel in tertiary-care hospitals in Greece

OBJECTIVES

: Our aim was to estimate vaccination and susceptibility rates against vaccine-preventable diseases among healthcare personnel (HCP) in eight hospitals.

METHODS

This study was a cross-sectional survey.

RESULTS

A total of 1284 HCP participated (physicians: 31.3%, nursing personnel: 36.6%, paramedical personnel: 11.1%, administrative personnel: 13.2%, supportive personnel: 7.3%). Vaccination rates were 32.9% against measles and mumps, 38.1% against rubella, 5.7% against varicella, 9.2% against hepatitis A, 65.8% against hepatitis B, 31.8% against tetanus-diphtheria, 7.1% against pertussis, 60.2% against influenza, and 80.1% against COVID-19. Susceptibility rates were: 27.8% for measles, 39.6% for mumps, 33.4% for rubella, 22.2% for varicella, 86.3% for hepatitis A, 34.2% for hepatitis B, 68.2% for tetanus-diphtheria, and 92.9% for pertussis. Older HCP had higher susceptibility rates against mumps, rubella, varicella, hepatitis A, hepatitis B, tetanus-diphtheria, and pertussis (p-values <0.001 for all). Mandatory vaccinations were supported by 81.85% of HCP.

CONCLUSIONS

Although most HCP supported mandatory vaccinations, significant vaccination gaps and susceptibility rates were recorded. The proportion of susceptible HCP to measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella increased the past decade, mostly because of reduction of acquired cases of natural illness. Vaccination programs for HCP should be developed. A national registry to follow HCP' vaccination rates is urgently needed.

How to investigate human health effects related to exposure to mixtures of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances: A systematic review of statistical methods

BACKGROUND

Humans are exposed to several per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) daily; however, most previous studies have focused on individual PFAS. Although attention to effects of exposure to mixtures of PFAS has grown in recent years, there is no consensus on the appropriate statistical methods that can be used to assess their combined effect on human health.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to perform a comprehensive review of the statistical methods used in the existing studies which evaluate the association between exposure to mixtures of PFAS and any adverse human health effect.

METHODS

The online databases PubMed, Embase and Scopus were searched for eligible studies, published during the last ten years (last search performed on April 08, 2021). Covidence software was used by two different reviewers to perform a title/abstract screening, followed by a full text revision of the selected papers.

RESULTS

A total of 3640 papers were identified, and after the screening process, 53 papers were included in the current review. Most of the studies were published between 2019 and 2021 and were conducted mainly in North America and Europe; more than half of the studies (28 out of 53) were conducted on mother and child pairs. WQS (Weighted Quantile Sum) Regression and BKMR (Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression) were used in 36 out of 53 papers to model mixtures' effects. Health outcomes included in the studies are immunotoxicity (n = 8), fetal development (n = 7), neurodevelopment (n = 9), reproductive hormones (n = 6), thyroid hormones (n = 7), outcomes related to metabolic pathways (n = 16).

CONCLUSION

Studies on human exposure to PFAS as complex mixtures and health consequences have substantially increased in the last few years. Based on our findings, we propose that addressing risk from PFAS mixtures will likely require combinations of approaches and implementation of constantly evolving statistical methods. Specific guidelines and tools for quality assessment and publication of mixture observational studies are warranted.

The Italian Version of the Adult Vaccine Hesitancy Scale (aVHS) for the Working-Age Population: Cross-Cultural Adaptation, Reliability, and Validity

The adult Vaccine Hesitancy Scale (aVHS) is valid and reliable for evaluating attitudes toward vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, and validity of the Italian version of the aVHS. After cross-cultural adaptation of the aVHS, internal consistency (IC), intra-class correlation (ICC), and content validity (S-CVI) were evaluated through a survey on 160 workers. Results of the ICC were analyzed on questionnaires administered twice at a distance of two months and revealed a satisfactory reproducibility (0.87). The IC of the aVHS was assessed by the Cronbach alpha coefficient test, with a result of 0.94, demonstrating an excellent IC reliability. The S-CVI calculated for the total scale was 0.97. The aVHS is a valid and reliable tool for evaluating vaccine hesitancy toward adult vaccinations. We suggest the use of this scale in upcoming surveys on opinions and perceptions of adult vaccinations.

Kinesiological Treatment of Early Spine Osteoarthritis in a Motorcyclist

This case report speculates that the prolonged vibrations from enduro off-road sports are deleterious to the spine. The results of this case report may also aid sports physicians in better understanding this complex and relatively unknown phenomenon. No published data are present in the current literature that demonstrate the correlation between early spine osteoarthritis from enduro motorcycle overuse and the long-term management effects of a non-invasive kinesiological approach to reduce pain and inflammation and improve spine mobility and muscle strength.

SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine Breakthrough Infections in Fully Vaccinated Healthcare Personnel: A Systematic Review

The number of people vaccinated against COVID-19 increases worldwide every day; however, it is important to study the risk of breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals at high risk of exposure such as healthcare personnel (HCP). A systematic literature review (SLR) applying the PRISMA declaration and the PECOS format using the following entry terms was used: "Health Personnel OR Healthcare Worker OR Healthcare Provider OR Healthcare Personnel AND breakthrough OR infection after vaccine*". The research was carried out utilizing the following databases: SCOPUS, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Sciences. An overall very low incidence of post-vaccination breakthrough infections was found, ranging from 0.011 to 0.001 (per 100 individuals at risk). Our findings further support the published high effectiveness rates of mRNA vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections among fully vaccinated HCP. Additional studies are needed to define the duration of the vaccine-induced protection among HCP.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Home Working and Physical Activity during SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, human lifestyles and occupational settings have changed in the workplace. This survey explores associations of home working employment and related physical activity (PA-MET min/week).

METHODS

A longitudinal cohort study was conducted between March 2020 and March 2021. A standardized method for assessing PA and sedentary time, the Italian version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF), was used through the Microsoft Forms® platform for self-administering the questionnaire. Baseline data were collected, and four follow-ups were performed; a full calendar year was observed.

RESULTS

In total, 310 home workers were recruited in this investigation. The average body mass index (BMI- kg/m2) was 21.4 ± 4.2 at baseline. The value increased at the first follow-up and fluctuated in the other recalls. The t-test of MET values of the four activities (Total PA, Vigorous-intensity activity, Moderate-intensity activity, Walking) show similar results; the total PA, at baseline 275.7 ± 138.6, decreased statistically significantly at the first (198.5 ± 84.6), third (174.9 ± 98.4), and fourth (188.7 ± 78.5) follow-ups, while it increased statistically significantly at the second follow-up (307.1 ± 106.1) compared to the baseline. Sedentary time was constant until the second follow-up, while it increased statistically significantly at the 3rd and 4th follow-up.

CONCLUSION

workers involved reduced and reorganized their PA during this pandemic year. Each business company should intervene to improve the PA levels of workers and reduce sedentary behavior in the workplace.

ATG7 immunohistochemical expression in malignant pleural mesothelioma. A preliminary report

Literature evidence has demonstrated a high incidence of asbestos-related malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) in a Sicilian town (Biancavilla, Italy), where fluoro-edenite (FE) fibers were discovered some decades ago. As ATG7 immunohistochemical analysis has been ascribed as a prognostic tool of improved survival, we decided to investigate, in MPM patients, exposed and not exposed to FE fibers, the immunohistochemical expression of this autophagy-related protein named ATG7. We analyzed the correlation between ATG7 immunohistochemical level and clinicopathological parameters. Twenty MPM tissue samples, from patients with available clinical and follow-up data, were included in paraffin and processed for immunohistochemistry. The immunohistochemical results confirmed activation of the autophagic process in MPM. Densitometric and morphometric expressions of ATG7 were significantly increased in MPMs when compared to the control tissues. A significant association of a high level of ATG7 with increased survival was demonstrated, with a mean overall survival (OS) of 12.5 months for patients with high expression vs. a mean OS of 4.5 months for patients with low ATG7 expression. In addition, a significant correlation between ATG7 expression and the survival time of MPM patients was observed. This study represents a starting point to hypothesize the prognostic role of ATG7 which could be a reliable prognostic indicator in MPM.

Survey on COVID-19-related mortality associated with occupational infection during the first phase of the pandemic: A systematic review

According to the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in 2020, a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-coronavirus 2 was reported in Wuhan, China. The present review examined the literature to reveal the incidence of novel coronavirus-2019 disease (COVID-19) infections, underlying comorbidities, workplace infections and case fatality rates. A review was performed to identify the relevant publications available up to May 15, 2020. Since the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, the case fatality rate among healthcare workers (HCWs) has stood at 0.69% worldwide and 0.4% in Italy. Based on the current information, most patients have exhibited good prognoses in terms of after-effects or sequelae and low mortality rate. Patients that became critically ill were primarily in the elderly population or had chronic underlying diseases, including diabetes and hypertension. Among all working sectors, HCWs, since they are front-line caregivers for patients with COVID-19, are considered to be in the high-risk population. Increased age and a number of comorbidity factors have been associated with increased risk of mortality in patients with COVID-19. The most frequent complications of COVID-19 reported that can cause fatality in patients were SARS, cardiac arrest, secondary infections and septic shock, in addition to acute kidney failure and liver failure. Overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing challenge, which poses a threat to global health that requires close surveillance and prompt diagnosis, in coordination with research efforts to understand this pathogen and develop effective countermeasures.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Three microRNAs in Environmental Asbestiform Fibers-Associated Malignant Mesothelioma

Fluoro-edenite (FE) is an asbestiform fiber identified in Biancavilla (Sicily, Italy). Environmental exposure to FE has been associated with a higher incidence of malignant mesothelioma (MM). The present study aimed to validate the predicted diagnostic significance of hsa-miR-323a-3p, hsa-miR-101-3p, and hsa-miR-20b-5p on a subset of MM patients exposed to FE and matched with healthy controls. For this purpose, MM tissues vs. nonmalignant pleura tissues were analyzed through droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) to evaluate differences in the expression levels of the selected miRNAs and their MM diagnostic potential. In addition, further computational analysis has been performed to establish the correlation of these miRNAs with the available online asbestos exposure data and clinic-pathological parameters to verify the potential role of these miRNAs as prognostic tools. ddPCR results showed that the three analyzed miRNAs were significantly down-regulated in MM cases vs. controls. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed high specificity and sensitivity rates for both hsa-miR-323a-3p and hsa-miR-20b-5p, which thus acquire a diagnostic value for MM. In silico results showed a potential prognostic role of hsa-miR-101-3p due to a significant association of its higher expression and increased overall survival (OS) of MM patients.

Determinants of intention to get vaccinated against COVID-19 among healthcare personnel in hospitals in Greece

BACKGROUND

To investigate intention rates to get vaccinated against COVID-19 among healthcare personnel (HCP) in Greece.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey.

RESULTS

The response rate was 14.5%. Of 1521 HCP with a known profession, 607 (39.9%) were nursing personnel, 480 (31.6%) physicians, 171 (11.2%) paramedical personnel, 72 (4.7%) supportive personnel, and 191 (12.6%) administrative personnel. Overall, 803 of 1571 HCP (51.1%) stated their intention to get vaccinated while 768 (48.9%) stated their intention to decline vaccination. Most HCP (71.3%) who reported intent to get vaccinated noted contributing to the control of the pandemic and protecting their families and themselves as their reasons, while the most common reason for reporting intent to decline vaccination was inadequate information about the vaccines (74.9%), followed by concerns about vaccine safety (36.2%). Logistic regression analysis revealed that the probability of intending to get vaccinated increased with male gender, being a physician, history of complete vaccination against hepatitis B, history of vaccination against pandemic A (H1N1) in 2009-2010, belief that COVID-19 vaccination should be mandatory for HCP, and increased confidence in vaccines in general during the COVID-19 pandemic. The following factors were associated with a lower intention to get vaccinated: no vaccination against influenza the past season, no intention to get vaccinated against influenza in 2020-2021, and no intention to recommend COVID-19 vaccination to high-risk patients.

CONCLUSION

There is an urgent need to built safety perception towards COVID-19 vaccines and raise vaccine uptake rates by HCP, and thus to protect the healthcare workforce and the healthcare services.

Considerations on the Update of the Risk Assessment Document During the Pandemic State by COVID-19 in Italy

Immediately after the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic (which had risen to the level of a pandemic according to the World Health Organization), the question arose whether or not to update the risk assessment, which, as required by Legislative Decree 81/2008, with the consequent updating of the prevention measures. In light of these forecasts, we asked ourselves whether the risk of coronavirus infection should be taken into account by the employer by updating the risk assessment or not. An in-depth analysis of current legislation has led to the conclusion that the biological risk from SARS-CoV-2 is to be considered specific only in health-related activities, in other activities it can be considered exclusively generic or generic aggravated. The Risk Assessment Document can therefore only be integrated.

Coverage rates against vaccine-preventable diseases among healthcare workers in Sicily (Italy)

BACKGROUND

Vaccination of healthcare workers (HCWs) reduces the risk of occupational vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), prevents their nosocomial transmission and preserves healthcare delivery during outbreaks. Extensive implementation of vaccination programmes for HCWs allowed the elimination or control of several VPDs within healthcare facilities; despite these, the vaccine adherence rates among HCWs are persistently suboptimal.

METHODS

A questionnaire was self-administered by HCWs to assess their vaccination rates against several VPDs and self-reported immunity in two university hospitals of Southern Italy (Catania and Palermo).

RESULTS

A total of 2586 questionnaires were analysed. More than 50% of HCWs did not know their own immunization status against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis. More than half of the HCWs interviewed at University Hospital (UH) of Catania (UHC) was immune against measles (72.1%), in contrast with data reported at the UH of Palermo (UHP) (45.9%). Immunization status against mumps (67.5% UHC vs. 40.6% UHP), rubella (69.9% UHC vs. 46.6% UHP) and varicella (70.4% UHC vs. 50.7% UHP). Overall, about 30% of HCWs did not know their own immunization status against these VPDs. Moreover, 84.2% at UHC and 66.7% at UHP stated that was previously vaccinated against hepatitis B.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination coverage rates reported from the HCWs against influenza during the last three seasons were considerably low. In conclusion, totally inadequate vaccination rates against several VPDs were found in two university hospitals in Sicily, in terms of preventing not only disease transmission by susceptible HCWs, but also nosocomial outbreaks, confirming data from previous national and international studies.

Adaption of Lung Fibroblasts to Fluoro-Edenite Fibers: Evaluation of Molecular and Physiological Dynamics

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The fluoro-edenite fibrous amphibole was identified as an environmental pollutant associate to risk of carcinogenicity. In Sicily (Italy), it represents a public health issue because fluoro-edenite fibers are present in the soil of Biancavilla, a town located on the south-west slopes of the volcano Etna. Since the relationship between exposure to fluoro-edenite and the onset of lung disorders have been documented, in vitro studies were performed to clarify the mechanisms of damage, but most aspects remain unknown. Here, we focus on the effects of mineral fibers in a primary culture of lung fibroblasts. We supposed that the cells react to fluoro-edenite exposure by establishing a process of adaption that could modify their metabolic activity, their proliferation, and their physiological functions, as the production of extracellular matrix (ECM) components.

METHODS

To verify our hypothesis, we used immunofluorescence, cell proliferation, senescence, apoptosis, scratch, Western blot, Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and evaluation of extracellular matrix components assays.

RESULTS

Results demonstrated that lung fibroblasts react to fluoro-edenite by a down-regulation of mitochondrial activity, a reduction of cell growth and migration, and a resistance to apoptosis. These elements suggested the induction of a premature senescent phenotype that was confirmed by senescence-associated beta-galactosidase (SA-β-Gal) activity, and by the analysis of ECM elements. We found an unbalance of collagens ratio, and changes in matrix metalloproteinase3 production and release.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that fluoro-edenite-induced senescence of lung fibroblasts could be an early and underestimated step that may drive fibroblasts toward a fibrotic and carcinogenic phenotype.

What Prompts Doctors to Recommend COVID-19 Vaccines: Is It a Question of Positive Emotion?

Vaccines are among the most successful and cost-effective public health tools and have greatly contributed to eliminating or controlling several serious vaccine-treatable diseases over the past century. To curb the spread of COVID-19, efficacious vaccination is emerging as essential in mitigating the disease and preventing deaths. Health care workers (HCW) are one of the first groups to receive vaccinations, so it is important to consider their attitudes to COVID-19 vaccination to better address barriers to widespread vaccination acceptance. This study aimed to evaluate variables that are linked with the recommendation of vaccines and intention to take-up vaccination against COVID-19 among the HCWs, in the context of the current pandemic. The study was conducted during the first week of the vaccination campaign dedicated to Italian HCWs, beginning in December 2020, and it involved all doctors in a public hospital in Sicily. The following questionnaires were administered: (1) The perceived vaccine trust questionnaire, measuring the degree of trust in vaccines by healthcare professionals both in general and for the protection of healthcare professionals themselves and patients; (2) the positive and negative affect scale-state (PANAS), for assessing positive and negative emotions in relation to their work as “frontline care providers”; (3) The locus of control of behaviour (LCB) to measure the extent to which subjects perceive responsibility for their personal behaviour (internal vs. external); (4) recommendation vaccines item, referring to the intention to recommend vaccination. The findings suggest that socio-demographic control variables (age, gender, and seniority) showed little or no predictive power in vaccine recommendation, while vaccine confidence, positive emotions, and internal locus of control were excellent predictors of vaccine recommendations by doctors. Younger doctors, both in age and experience, are more confident in vaccines and recommend them more frequently. It is essential to improve institutional communication addressed to doctors to enhance their role as vaccination facilitators.

Exposure to multiple metals/metalloids and human semen quality: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to metals/metalloids, including essential and nonessential elements, has been associated to male reproductive health in animals. However, findings from human studies are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the impact of exposure to multiple metals/metalloids at environmental levels on the conventional human semen-quality parameters.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Men living in rural or industrial areas were recruited by personalized letters. No exclusion criteria were applied. Each man provided one semen sample and one blood sample. We analyzed the semen sample both to determine conventional sperm parameters (concentration, progressive motility and normal forms) and to quantify lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V) and selenium (Se) levels. The levels of these metals/metalloids were also quantified in venous blood and spermatozoa samples. Associations between the blood/seminal plasma metal/metalloid levels and semen quality parameters were assessed using confounder adjusted logistic regression models. Correlation and interactions between blood/seminal plasma and semen metal/metalloid levels were investigated using the Spearman's correlation.

RESULTS

We found a positive association of seminal plasma cadmium level with lower Total count (OR = 4.48, 95%CI 0.25-80); whereas lead (OR = 4.51, 95%CI 0.86-23) and cadmium (OR = 3.45, 95%CI 0.77-16) seminal plasma levels had a positive association with progressive sperm motility. Overall, these associations remained suggestive after adjustment, though statistically unstable risks. Finally, we found weak interactions between beneficial effects of Se and detrimental ones only for Cd and Pb blood level on sperm concentration, total sperm count and progressive sperm motility.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that environmental exposure to Pb and Cd contributes to a decline in human semen quality, whereas Se can have beneficial effects. Measurements of metals/metalloids in the seminal fluid may be more predictable of semen quality than conventional blood measurements.

Health, Transport and the Environment: The Impacts of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Air Pollution

Lockdown measures were initiated in Italy on March 9th after the start of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic to flatten the epidemic curve. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of restrictive measures in the Apulia Region, southern Italy, on air quality from March to April 2020. We applied a dual-track approach. We assessed citizen mobility and vehicle traffic with mobility network data and information obtained from satellite tracking, and we evaluated and compared pollutant concentration data as measured by monitoring stations maintained by the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection and Prevention of Apulia (ARPA). The results showed a decrease in the weekly mean NO₂ concentration recorded by urban traffic stations during the lockdown period. In particular, in the city of Bari, the average NO₂ concentration decreased from 62.2 μg/m³ in March 2019 to 48.2 μg/m³ in March 2020. Regarding PM10 levels, the average concentrations at the individual traffic stations showed no particular variation compared to those in the same months of the previous year, except for Bari-Caldarola Station in March 2019/2020 (p-value < 0.001) and in April 2019/2020 (p-value = 0.04). In particular the average in March 2019 was ~26.9 μg/m³, while that in March 2020 was ~22.9 μg/m³. For April, the average concentration of PM10 in 2019 was 27.9 μg/m³, while in 2020, the average was ~22.4 μg/m³. This can be explained by the fact that PM10 levels are influenced by multiple variables such as weather and climate conditions and desert dust advections.