Genetic risk impacts the association of menopausal hormone therapy with colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), a common treatment to relieve symptoms of menopause, is associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). To inform CRC risk prediction and MHT risk-benefit assessment, we aimed to evaluate the joint association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC and MHT on CRC risk.

METHODS

We used data from 28,486 postmenopausal women (11,519 cases and 16,967 controls) of European descent. A PRS based on 141 CRC-associated genetic variants was modeled as a categorical variable in quartiles. Multiplicative interaction between PRS and MHT use was evaluated using logistic regression. Additive interaction was measured using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). 30-year cumulative risks of CRC for 50-year-old women according to MHT use and PRS were calculated.

RESULTS

The reduction in odds ratios by MHT use was larger in women within the highest quartile of PRS compared to that in women within the lowest quartile of PRS (p-value = 2.7 × 10-8). At the highest quartile of PRS, the 30-year CRC risk was statistically significantly lower for women taking any MHT than for women not taking any MHT, 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%) vs 6.1% (5.7%-6.5%) (difference 2.4%, P-value = 1.83 × 10-14); these differences were also statistically significant but smaller in magnitude in the lowest PRS quartile, 1.6% (1.4%-1.8%) vs 2.2% (1.9%-2.4%) (difference 0.6%, P-value = 1.01 × 10-3), indicating 4 times greater reduction in absolute risk associated with any MHT use in the highest compared to the lowest quartile of genetic CRC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MHT use has a greater impact on the reduction of CRC risk for women at higher genetic risk. These findings have implications for the development of risk prediction models for CRC and potentially for the consideration of genetic information in the risk-benefit assessment of MHT use.

Stool protein mass spectrometry identifies biomarkers for the early detection of diffuse-type gastric cancer

There is a high unmet need for early detection approaches for diffuse gastric cancer (DGC). We examined whether the stool proteome of mouse models of GC or individuals with hereditary diffuse GC (HDGC) have utility as biomarkers for early detection. Proteomic mass spectrometry of stool from a genetically engineered mouse model driven by oncogenic KrasG12D and loss of p53 and Cdh1 in gastric parietal cells (known as TCON mice) identified differentially abundant proteins compared to littermate controls. Immunoblot assays validated a panel of proteins including actinin alpha 4 (ACTN4), N-acylsphingosine amidohydrolase 2 (ASAH2), dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4), and valosin-containing protein (VCP) as enriched in TCON stool compared to littermate control stool. Immunofluorescence analysis of these proteins in TCON stomach sections revealed increased protein expression as compared to littermate controls. Proteomic mass spectrometry of stool obtained from HDGC patients with CDH1 mutations identified increased expression of ASAH2, DPP4, VCP, lactotransferrin (LTF), and tropomyosin-2 (TPM2) relative to stool from healthy sex and age-matched donors. Chemical inhibition of ASAH2 using C6-urea ceramide was toxic to GC cell lines and patient derived-GC organoids. This toxicity was reversed by adding downstream products of the S1P synthesis pathway, suggesting a dependency on ASAH2 activity in GC. An exploratory analysis of the HDGC stool microbiome identified features which correlated with patient tumors. Here we provide evidence supporting the potential of analyzing stool biomarkers for the early detection of DGC.

Acute Kidney Injury Receiving Dialysis and Dialysis Care following Hospital Discharge

The number of individuals with acute kidney injury receiving outpatient dialysis (AKI-D) is increasing. At present, based on limited data, approximately one third of individuals with AKI-D who receive outpatient dialysis after hospital discharge survive and regain sufficient kidney function to discontinue dialysis. Data to inform dialysis management strategies that promote kidney function recovery and processes of care among individuals with AKI-D receiving outpatient dialysis are lacking. In this article, we detail current trends in the incidence, risk factors, clinical outcomes, proposed management, and health policy landscape for individuals with AKI-D receiving outpatient dialysis and identify areas for further research.

Epidemiologic Factors in Relation to Colorectal Cancer Risk and Survival by Genotoxic Colibactin Mutational Signature

BACKGROUND

The genotoxin colibactin causes a tumor single-base substitution (SBS) mutational signature, SBS88. It is unknown whether epidemiologic factors' association with colorectal cancer risk and survival differs by SBS88.

METHODS

Within the Genetic Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and Colon Cancer Family Registry, we measured SBS88 in 4,308 microsatellite stable/microsatellite instability low tumors. Associations of epidemiologic factors with colorectal cancer risk by SBS88 were assessed using multinomial regression (N = 4,308 cases, 14,192 controls; cohort-only cases N = 1,911), and with colorectal cancer-specific survival using Cox proportional hazards regression (N = 3,465 cases).

RESULTS

392 (9%) tumors were SBS88 positive. Among all cases, the highest quartile of fruit intake was associated with lower risk of SBS88-positive colorectal cancer than SBS88-negative colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR) = 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37-0.76; OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.85, respectively, Pheterogeneity = 0.047]. Among cohort studies, associations of body mass index (BMI), alcohol, and fruit intake with colorectal cancer risk differed by SBS88. BMI ≥30 kg/m2 was associated with worse colorectal cancer-specific survival among those SBS88-positive [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.40, 95% CI 1.47-7.84], but not among those SBS88-negative (HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.78-1.21, Pheterogeneity = 0.066).

CONCLUSIONS

Most epidemiologic factors did not differ by SBS88 for colorectal cancer risk or survival. Higher BMI may be associated with worse colorectal cancer-specific survival among those SBS88-positive; however, validation is needed in samples with whole-genome or whole-exome sequencing available.

IMPACT

This study highlights the importance of identification of tumor phenotypes related to colorectal cancer and understanding potential heterogeneity for risk and survival.

Body size and risk of colorectal cancer molecular defined subtypes and pathways: Mendelian randomization analyses

BACKGROUND

Obesity has been positively associated with most molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, the magnitude and the causality of these associations is uncertain.

METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine potential causal relationships between body size traits (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, and body fat percentage) with risks of Jass classification types and individual subtypes of CRC (microsatellite instability [MSI] status, CpG island methylator phenotype [CIMP] status, BRAF and KRAS mutations). Summary data on tumour markers were obtained from two genetic consortia (CCFR, GECCO).

FINDINGS

A 1-standard deviation (SD:5.1 kg/m2) increment in BMI levels was found to increase risks of Jass type 1MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype (odds ratio [OR]: 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.46, 3.13; p-value = 9 × 10-5) and Jass type 2non-MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype CRC (OR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86; p-value = 0.005). The magnitude of these associations was stronger compared with Jass type 4non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-wildtype CRC (p-differences: 0.03 and 0.04, respectively). A 1-SD (SD:13.4 cm) increment in waist circumference increased risk of Jass type 3non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-mutated (OR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34, 2.25; p-value = 9 × 10-5) that was stronger compared with Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03). A higher body fat percentage (SD:8.5%) increased risk of Jass type 1 CRC (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.49, 4.48; p-value = 0.001), which was greater than Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03).

INTERPRETATION

Body size was more strongly linked to the serrated (Jass types 1 and 2) and alternate (Jass type 3) pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis in comparison to the traditional pathway (Jass type 4).

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, American Institute for Cancer Research, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Prevent Cancer Foundation, Victorian Cancer Agency, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Cancer Society, Region Västerbotten, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, Lion's Cancer Research Foundation, Insamlingsstiftelsen, Umeå University. Full funding details are provided in acknowledgements.

Genome-Wide Gene-Environment Interaction Analyses to Understand the Relationship between Red Meat and Processed Meat Intake and Colorectal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

High red meat and/or processed meat consumption are established colorectal cancer risk factors. We conducted a genome-wide gene-environment (GxE) interaction analysis to identify genetic variants that may modify these associations.

METHODS

A pooled sample of 29,842 colorectal cancer cases and 39,635 controls of European ancestry from 27 studies were included. Quantiles for red meat and processed meat intake were constructed from harmonized questionnaire data. Genotyping arrays were imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium. Two-step EDGE and joint tests of GxE interaction were utilized in our genome-wide scan.

RESULTS

Meta-analyses confirmed positive associations between increased consumption of red meat and processed meat with colorectal cancer risk [per quartile red meat OR = 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-1.41; processed meat OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.20-1.63]. Two significant genome-wide GxE interactions for red meat consumption were found. Joint GxE tests revealed the rs4871179 SNP in chromosome 8 (downstream of HAS2); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.38 (95% CI = 1.29-1.46), 1.20 (95% CI = 1.12-1.27), and 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95-1.19) for CC, CG, and GG, respectively. The two-step EDGE method identified the rs35352860 SNP in chromosome 18 (SMAD7 intron); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.18 (95% CI = 1.11-1.24), 1.35 (95% CI = 1.26-1.44), and 1.46 (95% CI = 1.26-1.69) for CC, CT, and TT, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose two novel biomarkers that support the role of meat consumption with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

IMPACT

The reported GxE interactions may explain the increased risk of colorectal cancer in certain population subgroups.

Changes in Cognitive Function After Kidney Transplantation: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Kidney disease negatively affects cognition. We assessed the effect of kidney transplantation (KT) on different cognitive domains.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

We examined pre- versus post-KT cognition in patients waitlisted for KT at an academic center.

PREDICTORS

Transplant status. We measured cognitive function before KT (n=101), 3 months after KT (n=78), and 1 year after KT (n = 83).

OUTCOMES

Our primary outcome was change in cognitive function before versus after KT. We used standard neuropsychological tests to assess global cognition (Mini-Mental State Exam [MMSE]), episodic/declarative memory (Logical Memory), psychomotor speed/visuospatial function (Digit Symbol Substitution Test [DSST], Trail Making Test [TMT] A), working memory/attention (Digit Span), executive function (TMT B), and semantic memory/verbal fluency/language (Category Fluency).

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Using linear mixed model analysis, we evaluated the changes in neuropsychological test scores adjusted for age, sex, race, education, and number of assessments.

RESULTS

Before KT, Logical Memory I and II, DSST, MMSE, Category Fluency (animal naming), and Digit Span backward scores were low compared with normative values from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center data. Logical Memory I and II scores improved after KT (pre- vs post-KT, estimated group difference [d]=3.3, P<0.001 for Logical Memory I; d=4.27, P<0.001 for Logical Memory II), such that post-KT scores were similar to normative values (post-KT vs normative values, d = -0.37, P=0.06 for Logical Memory I; d = -0.89, P=0.08 for Logical Memory II). Category Fluency (animal naming; d=2.4, P<0.001) and DSST (d=3.12, P=0.01) scores also improved with KT, but post-KT DSST scores remained lower than normative values (post-KT vs normative values, d = -5.17, P<0.001). MMSE, Digit Span, and TMT A and B scores did not change after KT.

LIMITATIONS

Single-center study.

CONCLUSIONS

Episodic and verbal declarative memory normalize after KT. Semantic memory, verbal fluency, language, psychomotor speed, and visuospatial function show partial improvement. Cognitive impairment in kidney disease is therefore at least partly reversible with KT.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Cognitive impairment in kidney disease affects self-esteem, vocational abilities, quality of life, health care costs, and mortality. It is not clear whether kidney transplantation (KT) improves cognition and whether the improvement is uniform across cognitive domains. The distinction between reversible and irreversible cognitive impairment has important implications in the clinical care of patients before and after KT. We assessed cognition before KT and 3 months and 12 months after KT and discovered that episodic and verbal declarative memory normalized with KT. Semantic memory, verbal fluency, language, psychomotor speed, and visuospatial function also improved with KT but did not reach normal levels. Cognitive impairment in kidney disease is therefore at least partly reversible.

SARS-CoV-2 infection elucidates unique features of pregnancy-specific immunity

Pregnancy is a risk factor for increased severity of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory infections. The mechanisms underlying this risk have not been well-established, partly due to a limited understanding of how pregnancy shapes immune responses. To gain insight into the role of pregnancy in modulating immune responses at steady state and upon perturbation, we collected peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), plasma, and stool from 226 women, including 152 pregnant individuals (n = 96 with SARS-CoV-2 infection and n = 56 healthy controls) and 74 non-pregnant women (n = 55 with SARS-CoV-2 and n = 19 healthy controls). We found that SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with altered T cell responses in pregnant compared to non-pregnant women. Differences included a lower percentage of memory T cells, a distinct clonal expansion of CD4-expressing CD8 + T cells, and the enhanced expression of T cell exhaustion markers, such as programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and T cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain-3 (Tim-3), in pregnant women. We identified additional evidence of immune dysfunction in severely and critically ill pregnant women, including a lack of expected elevation in regulatory T cell (Treg) levels, diminished interferon responses, and profound suppression of monocyte function. Consistent with earlier data, we found maternal obesity was also associated with altered immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection, including enhanced production of inflammatory cytokines by T cells. Certain gut bacterial species were altered in pregnancy and upon SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant individuals compared to non-pregnant women. Shifts in cytokine and chemokine levels were also identified in the sera of pregnant individuals, most notably a robust increase of interleukin-27 (IL-27), a cytokine known to drive T cell exhaustion, in the pregnant uninfected control group compared to all non-pregnant groups. IL-27 levels were also significantly higher in uninfected pregnant controls compared to pregnant SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals. Using two different preclinical mouse models of inflammation-induced fetal demise and respiratory influenza viral infection, we found that enhanced IL-27 protects developing fetuses from maternal inflammation but renders adult female mice vulnerable to viral infection. These combined findings from human and murine studies reveal nuanced pregnancy-associated immune responses, suggesting mechanisms underlying the increased susceptibility of pregnant individuals to viral respiratory infections.

The Impact of the Gut Microbiome, Environment, and Diet in Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Development

Traditionally considered a disease common in the older population, colorectal cancer is increasing in incidence among younger demographics. Evidence suggests that populational- and generational-level shifts in the composition of the human gut microbiome may be tied to the recent trends in gastrointestinal carcinogenesis. This review provides an overview of current research and putative mechanisms behind the rising incidence of colorectal cancer in the younger population, with insight into future interventions that may prevent or reverse the rate of early-onset colorectal carcinoma.

Genotoxic colibactin mutational signature in colorectal cancer is associated with clinicopathological features, specific genomic alterations and better survival

Background and Aims

The microbiome has long been suspected of a role in colorectal cancer (CRC) tumorigenesis. The mutational signature SBS88 mechanistically links CRC development with the strain of Escherichia coli harboring the pks island that produces the genotoxin colibactin, but the genomic, pathological and survival characteristics associated with SBS88-positive tumors are unknown.

Methods

SBS88-positive CRCs were identified from targeted sequencing data from 5,292 CRCs from 17 studies and tested for their association with clinico-pathological features, oncogenic pathways, genomic characteristics and survival.

Results

In total, 7.5% (398/5,292) of the CRCs were SBS88-positive, of which 98.7% (392/398) were microsatellite stable/microsatellite instability low (MSS/MSI-L), compared with 80% (3916/4894) of SBS88 negative tumors (p=1.5x10-28). Analysis of MSS/MSI-L CRCs demonstrated that SBS88 positive CRCs were associated with the distal colon (OR=1.84, 95% CI=1.40-2.42, p=1x10-5) and rectum (OR=1.90, 95% CI=1.44-2.51, p=6x10-6) tumor sites compared with the proximal colon. The top seven recurrent somatic mutations associated with SBS88-positive CRCs demonstrated mutational contexts associated with colibactin-induced DNA damage, the strongest of which was the APC:c.835-8A>G mutation (OR=65.5, 95%CI=39.0-110.0, p=3x10-80). Large copy number alterations (CNAs) including CNA loss on 14q and gains on 13q, 16q and 20p were significantly enriched in SBS88-positive CRCs. SBS88-positive CRCs were associated with better CRC-specific survival (p=0.007; hazard ratio of 0.69, 95% CI=0.52-0.90) when stratified by age, sex, study, and by stage.

Conclusion

SBS88-positivity, a biomarker of colibactin-induced DNA damage, can identify a novel subtype of CRC characterized by recurrent somatic mutations, copy number alterations and better survival. These findings provide new insights for treatment and prevention strategies for this subtype of CRC.

Diet and gut microbial associations in irritable bowel syndrome according to disease subtype

The role of diet and the gut microbiome in the etiopathogenesis of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is not fully understood. Therefore, we investigated the interplay between dietary risk factors and gut microbiota in IBS subtypes using a food frequency questionnaire and stool metagenome data from 969 participants aged 18-65 years in the ZOE PREDICT 1 study, an intervention study designed to predict postprandial metabolic responses. We identified individuals with IBS subtype according to the Rome III criteria based on predominant bowel habits during symptom onset: diarrhea (i.e. looser), constipation (i.e. harder), and mixed. Participants with IBS-D (n = 59) consumed more healthy plant-based foods (e.g. whole grains, leafy vegetables) and fiber, while those with IBS-C (n = 49) tended to consume more unhealthy plant-based foods (e.g. refined grains, fruit juice) than participants without IBS (n = 797). Microbial diversity was nominally lower in patients with IBS-D than in participants without IBS or with IBS-C. Using multivariable-adjusted linear regression, we identified specific microbiota variations in IBS subtypes, including slight increases in pro-inflammatory taxa in IBS-C (e.g. Escherichia coli) and loss of strict anaerobes in IBS-D (e.g. Faecalibacterium prausnitzii). Our analysis also revealed intriguing evidence of interactions between diet and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii. The positive associations between fiber and iron intake and IBS-diarrhea were stronger among individuals with a higher relative abundance of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, potentially driven by carbohydrate metabolic pathways, including the superpathway of β-D-glucuronide and D-glucuronate degradation. In conclusion, our findings suggest subtype-specific variations in dietary habits, gut microbial composition and function, and diet-microbiota interactions in IBS, providing insights into potential microbiome-informed dietary interventions.

Randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of the effect of the omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) on colorectal cancer recurrence and survival after surgery for resectable liver metastases: EPA for Metastasis Trial 2 (EMT2) study protocol

INTRODUCTION

There remains an unmet need for safe and cost-effective adjunctive treatment of advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). The omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) is safe, well-tolerated and has anti-inflammatory as well as antineoplastic properties. A phase 2 randomised trial of preoperative EPA free fatty acid 2 g daily in patients undergoing surgery for CRC liver metastasis showed no difference in the primary endpoint (histological tumour proliferation index) compared with placebo. However, the trial demonstrated possible benefit for the prespecified exploratory endpoint of postoperative disease-free survival. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that EPA treatment, started before liver resection surgery (and continued postoperatively), improves CRC outcomes in patients with CRC liver metastasis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The EPA for Metastasis Trial 2 trial is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of 4 g EPA ethyl ester (icosapent ethyl (IPE; Vascepa)) daily in patients undergoing liver resection surgery for CRC liver metastasis with curative intent. Trial treatment continues for a minimum of 2 years and maximum of 4 years, with 6 monthly assessments, including quality of life outcomes, as well as annual clinical record review after the trial intervention. The primary endpoint is CRC progression-free survival. Key secondary endpoints are overall survival, as well as the safety and tolerability of IPE. A minimum 388 participants are estimated to provide 247 CRC progression events during minimum 2-year follow-up, allowing detection of an HR of 0.7 in favour of IPE, with a power of 80% at the 5% (two sided) level of significance, assuming drop-out of 15%.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical and health research authority approval was obtained in January 2018. All data will be collected by 2025. Full trial results will be published in 2026. Secondary analyses of health economic data, biomarker studies and other translational work will be published subsequently.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03428477.

Genome-wide interaction analysis of folate for colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological and experimental evidence suggests that higher folate intake is associated with decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. Genetic variation that may have a direct or indirect impact on folate metabolism can provide insights into folate's role in CRC.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to perform a genome-wide interaction analysis to identify genetic variants that may modify the association of folate on CRC risk.

METHODS

We applied traditional case-control logistic regression, joint 3-degree of freedom, and a 2-step weighted hypothesis approach to test the interactions of common variants (allele frequency >1%) across the genome and dietary folate, folic acid supplement use, and total folate in relation to risk of CRC in 30,550 cases and 42,336 controls from 51 studies from 3 genetic consortia (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO).

RESULTS

Inverse associations of dietary, total folate, and folic acid supplement with CRC were found (odds ratio [OR]: 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.90, 0.96; and 0.91; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.94 per quartile higher intake, and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.88) for users compared with nonusers, respectively). Interactions (P-interaction < 5×10-8) of folic acid supplement and variants in the 3p25.2 locus (in the region of Synapsin II [SYN2]/tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 4 [TIMP4]) were found using traditional interaction analysis, with variant rs150924902 (located upstream to SYN2) showing the strongest interaction. In stratified analyses by rs150924902 genotypes, folate supplementation was associated with decreased CRC risk among those carrying the TT genotype (OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.86) but increased CRC risk among those carrying the TA genotype (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.29, 2.05), suggesting a qualitative interaction (P-interaction = 1.4×10-8). No interactions were observed for dietary and total folate.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in 3p25.2 locus may modify the association of folate supplement with CRC risk. Experimental studies and studies incorporating other relevant omics data are warranted to validate this finding.

Probing the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship using gene - environment interaction analyses

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship still require investigation and it is not known if the association is modified by genetic variants. To address these questions, we undertook a genome-wide gene-environment interaction analysis.

METHODS

We used data from 3 genetic consortia (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO; 31,318 colorectal cancer cases/41,499 controls) and undertook genome-wide gene-environment interaction analyses with colorectal cancer risk, including interaction tests of genetics(G)xdiabetes (1-degree of freedom; d.f.) and joint testing of Gxdiabetes, G-colorectal cancer association (2-d.f. joint test) and G-diabetes correlation (3-d.f. joint test).

RESULTS

Based on the joint tests, we found that the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk is modified by loci on chromosomes 8q24.11 (rs3802177, SLC30A8 - ORAA: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.34-1.96; ORAG: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30-1.54; ORGG: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.13-1.31; p-value3-d.f.: 5.46 × 10-11) and 13q14.13 (rs9526201, LRCH1 - ORGG: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.56-2.83; ORGA: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.38-1.68; ORAA: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.21; p-value2-d.f.: 7.84 × 10-09).

DISCUSSION

These results suggest that variation in genes related to insulin signaling (SLC30A8) and immune function (LRCH1) may modify the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk and provide novel insights into the biology underlying the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship.

Metagenomic assessment of gut microbial communities and risk of severe COVID-19

BACKGROUND

The gut microbiome is a critical modulator of host immunity and is linked to the immune response to respiratory viral infections. However, few studies have gone beyond describing broad compositional alterations in severe COVID-19, defined as acute respiratory or other organ failure.

METHODS

We profiled 127 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (n = 79 with severe COVID-19 and 48 with moderate) who collectively provided 241 stool samples from April 2020 to May 2021 to identify links between COVID-19 severity and gut microbial taxa, their biochemical pathways, and stool metabolites.

RESULTS

Forty-eight species were associated with severe disease after accounting for antibiotic use, age, sex, and various comorbidities. These included significant in-hospital depletions of Fusicatenibacter saccharivorans and Roseburia hominis, each previously linked to post-acute COVID syndrome or "long COVID," suggesting these microbes may serve as early biomarkers for the eventual development of long COVID. A random forest classifier achieved excellent performance when tasked with classifying whether stool was obtained from patients with severe vs. moderate COVID-19, a finding that was externally validated in an independent cohort. Dedicated network analyses demonstrated fragile microbial ecology in severe disease, characterized by fracturing of clusters and reduced negative selection. We also observed shifts in predicted stool metabolite pools, implicating perturbed bile acid metabolism in severe disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Here, we show that the gut microbiome differentiates individuals with a more severe disease course after infection with COVID-19 and offer several tractable and biologically plausible mechanisms through which gut microbial communities may influence COVID-19 disease course. Further studies are needed to expand upon these observations to better leverage the gut microbiome as a potential biomarker for disease severity and as a target for therapeutic intervention.

Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, and Risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019

INTRODUCTION

Data on the associations of prepandemic physical activity and sedentary behavior with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity, particularly milder illness, have been limited.

METHODS

We used data from 43,913 participants within the Nurses' Health Study II and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study who responded to periodic COVID-related surveys from May 2020 through March 2021. History of physical activity from the prepandemic period was assessed as the metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-hours per week of various activities of different intensity and sedentary behavior assessed from reports of time spent sitting from questionnaires completed 2016-2017. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity, as well as predicted COVID-19 defined using a validated symptom-based algorithm.

RESULTS

Higher levels of prepandemic physical activity were associated with a lower risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Compared to participants with <3 MET-hours per week, the multivariable-adjusted OR was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.99; P trend =.07) for those with ≥27 MET-hours per week. Higher physical activity levels were also associated with lower risk of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.99; P trend = .05) and predicted COVID-19 (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.97; P trend = .01). Longer time sitting at home watching TV (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.73, 0.97) or for other tasks (OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.92) was associated with a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support a protective association between prepandemic physical activity and lower risk and severity of COVID-19.

Serum Magnesium Levels and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial Participants

Rationale and Objective

Serum magnesium levels have been inversely yet inconsistently associated with cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. In this study, we examined the association of serum magnesium levels with CV outcomes in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) participants.

Study Design

Case-control post hoc analysis of SPRINT.

Setting & Participants

A total of 2,040 SPRINT participants with available serum samples at baseline level were included in this study. Case participants (n = 510) who experienced a CV event during the SPRINT observation period (median follow-up of 3.2 years) and control participants (n = 1,530) without CV events were sampled in a 1:3 ratio for measurements of serum magnesium level at baseline and 2-year follow-up.

Predictors

Baseline serum magnesium levels and 2-year percentage change in serum magnesium levels (ΔSMg).

Outcome

SPRINT primary composite CV outcome.

Analytical Approach

Multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, accounting for matching factors, was used to evaluate the association of baseline and ΔSMg with CV outcomes. Individual matching of cases and controls was based on the SPRINT treatment arm allocation (standard vs intensive) and prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Results

The median serum magnesium level at baseline was similar among the case and control groups. In a fully adjusted model, each standard deviation (SD) (0.18 mg/dL) higher of the baseline serum magnesium level was independently associated with a lower risk for composite CV outcomes in all study participants (adjusted odds ratio 95% CI, 0.79 [0.70-0.89]). This association was similar when serum magnesium levels were analyzed in quartiles but dissipated in the standard (vs intensive) arm of SPRINT (0.88 [0.76-1.02] vs 0.65 [0.53-0.79], respectively; Pinteraction = 0.06). The presence or absence of CKD at baseline did not modify this association. ΔSMg was not independently associated with CV outcomes occurring after 2 years.

Limitations

ΔSMg was small in magnitude, limiting effect size.

Conclusions

Higher baseline serum magnesium levels were independently associated with reduced risk for CV outcomes in all study participants, but ΔSMg was not associated with CV outcomes.

Genome-wide Interaction Study with Smoking for Colorectal Cancer Risk Identifies Novel Genetic Loci Related to Tumor Suppression, Inflammation, and Immune Response

BACKGROUND

Tobacco smoking is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, genetically defined population subgroups may have increased susceptibility to smoking-related effects on colorectal cancer.

METHODS

A genome-wide interaction scan was performed including 33,756 colorectal cancer cases and 44,346 controls from three genetic consortia.

RESULTS

Evidence of an interaction was observed between smoking status (ever vs. never smokers) and a locus on 3p12.1 (rs9880919, P = 4.58 × 10-8), with higher associated risk in subjects carrying the GG genotype [OR, 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.30] compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.17 for GA and AA). Among ever smokers, we observed interactions between smoking intensity (increase in 10 cigarettes smoked per day) and two loci on 6p21.33 (rs4151657, P = 1.72 × 10-8) and 8q24.23 (rs7005722, P = 2.88 × 10-8). Subjects carrying the rs4151657 TT genotype showed higher risk (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09-1.16) compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.06 for TC and CC). Similarly, higher risk was observed among subjects carrying the rs7005722 AA genotype (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.28) compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.13 for AC and CC). Functional annotation revealed that SNPs in 3p12.1 and 6p21.33 loci were located in regulatory regions, and were associated with expression levels of nearby genes. Genetic models predicting gene expression revealed that smoking parameters were associated with lower colorectal cancer risk with higher expression levels of CADM2 (3p12.1) and ATF6B (6p21.33).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified novel genetic loci that may modulate the risk for colorectal cancer of smoking status and intensity, linked to tumor suppression and immune response.

IMPACT

These findings can guide potential prevention treatments.

Associations between greenness and predicted COVID-19-like illness incidence in the United States and the United Kingdom

Green spaces may be protective against COVID-19 incidence. They may provide outdoor, ventilated, settings for physical and social activities and therefore decrease transmission risk. We examined the association between neighborhood greenness and COVID-19-like illness incidence using individual-level data.

Methods

The study population includes participants enrolled in the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application in the United Kingdom and the United States (March-November 2020). All participants were encouraged to report their current health condition and suspected risk factors for COVID-19. We used a validated symptom-based classifier that predicts COVID-19-like illness. We estimated the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), for each participant's reported neighborhood of residence for each month, using images from Landsat 8 (30 m2). We used time-varying Cox proportional hazards models stratified by age, country, and calendar month at study entry and adjusted for the individual- and neighborhood-level risk factors.

Results

We observed 143,340 cases of predicted COVID-19-like illness among 2,794,029 participants. Neighborhood NDVI was associated with a decreased risk of predicted COVID-19-like illness incidence in the fully adjusted model (hazard ratio = 0.965, 95% confidence interval = 0.960, 0.970, per 0.1 NDVI increase). Stratified analyses showed protective associations among U.K. participants but not among U.S. participants. Associations were slightly stronger for White individuals, for individuals living in rural neighborhoods, and for individuals living in high-income neighborhoods compared to individuals living in low-income neighborhoods.

Conclusions

Higher levels of greenness may reduce the risk of predicted COVID-19-like illness incidence, but these associations were not observed in all populations.

The Gut Microbiome and Colonic Motility Disorders: A Practical Framework for the Gastroenterologist

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Colonic motility disorders may be influenced by the gut microbiota, which plays a role in modulating sensory and motor function. However, existing data are inconsistent, possibly due to complex disease pathophysiology, fluctuation in symptoms, and difficulty characterizing high-resolution taxonomic composition and function of the gut microbiome.

RECENT FINDINGS

Increasingly, human studies have reported associations between gut microbiome features and colonic motility disorders, such as irritable bowel syndrome and constipation. Several microbial metabolites have been identified as regulators of colonic motility in animal models. Modulation of the gut microbiota via dietary intervention, probiotics, and fecal microbiota transplant is a promising avenue for treatment for these diseases. An integration of longitudinal multi-omics data will facilitate further understanding of the causal effects of dysbiosis on disease. Further understanding of the microbiome-driven mechanisms underlying colonic motility disorders may be leveraged to develop personalized, microbiota-based approaches for disease prevention and treatment.

The mental health burden of racial and ethnic minorities during the COVID-19 pandemic

Racial/ethnic minorities have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. The effects of COVID-19 on the long-term mental health of minorities remains unclear. To evaluate differences in odds of screening positive for depression and anxiety among various racial and ethnic groups during the latter phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of 691,473 participants nested within the prospective smartphone-based COVID Symptom Study in the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K). from February 23, 2021 to June 9, 2021. In the U.S. (n=57,187), compared to White participants, the multivariable odds ratios (ORs) for screening positive for depression were 1·16 (95% CI: 1·02 to 1·31) for Black, 1·23 (1·11 to 1·36) for Hispanic, and 1·15 (1·02 to 1·30) for Asian participants, and 1·34 (1·13 to 1·59) for participants reporting more than one race/other even after accounting for personal factors such as prior history of a mental health disorder, COVID-19 infection status, and surrounding lockdown stringency. Rates of screening positive for anxiety were comparable. In the U.K. (n=643,286), racial/ethnic minorities had similarly elevated rates of positive screening for depression and anxiety. These disparities were not fully explained by changes in leisure time activities. Racial/ethnic minorities bore a disproportionate mental health burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. These differences will need to be considered as health care systems transition from prioritizing infection control to mitigating long-term consequences.

Genome-Wide Interaction Analysis of Genetic Variants With Menopausal Hormone Therapy for Colorectal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

The use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) may interact with genetic variants to influence colorectal cancer (CRC) risk.

METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide, gene-environment interaction between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the use of any MHT, estrogen only, and combined estrogen-progestogen therapy with CRC risk, among 28 486 postmenopausal women (11 519 CRC patients and 16 967 participants without CRC) from 38 studies, using logistic regression, 2-step method, and 2- or 3-degree-of-freedom joint test. A set-based score test was applied for rare genetic variants.

RESULTS

The use of any MHT, estrogen only and estrogen-progestogen were associated with a reduced CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64 to 0.78; OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.79; and OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.90, respectively). The 2-step method identified a statistically significant interaction between a GRIN2B variant rs117868593 and MHT use, whereby MHT-associated CRC risk was statistically significantly reduced in women with the GG genotype (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.72) but not within strata of GC or CC genotypes. A statistically significant interaction between a DCBLD1 intronic variant at 6q22.1 (rs10782186) and MHT use was identified by the 2-degree-of-freedom joint test. The MHT-associated CRC risk was reduced with increasing number of rs10782186-C alleles, showing odds ratios of 0.78 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.87) for TT, 0.68 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.73) for TC, and 0.66 (95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74) for CC genotypes. In addition, 5 genes in rare variant analysis showed suggestive interactions with MHT (2-sided P < 1.2 × 10-4).

CONCLUSION

Genetic variants that modify the association between MHT and CRC risk were identified, offering new insights into pathways of CRC carcinogenesis and potential mechanisms involved.

Diabetes mellitus in relation to colorectal tumor molecular subtypes: A pooled analysis of more than 9000 cases

Diabetes is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, colorectal cancer is a heterogeneous disease and it is not well understood whether diabetes is more strongly associated with some tumor molecular subtypes than others. A better understanding of the association between diabetes and colorectal cancer according to molecular subtypes could provide important insights into the biology of this association. We used data on lifestyle and clinical characteristics from the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (CCFR) and the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), including 9756 colorectal cancer cases (with tumor marker data) and 9985 controls, to evaluate associations between reported diabetes and risk of colorectal cancer according to molecular subtypes. Tumor markers included BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite instability and CpG island methylator phenotype. In the multinomial logistic regression model, comparing colorectal cancer cases to cancer-free controls, diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer regardless of subtype. The highest OR estimate was found for BRAF-mutated colorectal cancer, n = 1086 (ORfully adj : 1.67, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.36-2.05), with an attenuated association observed between diabetes and colorectal cancer without BRAF-mutations, n = 7959 (ORfully adj : 1.33, 95% CI: 1.19-1.48). In the case only analysis, BRAF-mutation was differentially associated with diabetes (Pdifference  = .03). For the other markers, associations with diabetes were similar across tumor subtypes. In conclusion, our study confirms the established association between diabetes and colorectal cancer risk, and suggests that it particularly increases the risk of BRAF-mutated tumors.

Identifying colorectal cancer caused by biallelic MUTYH pathogenic variants using tumor mutational signatures

Carriers of germline biallelic pathogenic variants in the MUTYH gene have a high risk of colorectal cancer. We test 5649 colorectal cancers to evaluate the discriminatory potential of a tumor mutational signature specific to MUTYH for identifying biallelic carriers and classifying variants of uncertain clinical significance (VUS). Using a tumor and matched germline targeted multi-gene panel approach, our classifier identifies all biallelic MUTYH carriers and all known non-carriers in an independent test set of 3019 colorectal cancers (accuracy = 100% (95% confidence interval 99.87-100%)). All monoallelic MUTYH carriers are classified with the non-MUTYH carriers. The classifier provides evidence for a pathogenic classification for two VUS and a benign classification for five VUS. Somatic hotspot mutations KRAS p.G12C and PIK3CA p.Q546K are associated with colorectal cancers from biallelic MUTYH carriers compared with non-carriers (p = 2 × 10-23 and p = 6 × 10-11, respectively). Here, we demonstrate the potential application of mutational signatures to tumor sequencing workflows to improve the identification of biallelic MUTYH carriers.

Beyond GWAS of Colorectal Cancer: Evidence of Interaction with Alcohol Consumption and Putative Causal Variant for the 10q24.2 Region

BACKGROUND

Currently known associations between common genetic variants and colorectal cancer explain less than half of its heritability of 25%. As alcohol consumption has a J-shape association with colorectal cancer risk, nondrinking and heavy drinking are both risk factors for colorectal cancer.

METHODS

Individual-level data was pooled from the Colon Cancer Family Registry, Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium to compare nondrinkers (≤1 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>28 g/day) with light-to-moderate drinkers (1-28 g/day) in GxE analyses. To improve power, we implemented joint 2df and 3df tests and a novel two-step method that modifies the weighted hypothesis testing framework. We prioritized putative causal variants by predicting allelic effects using support vector machine models.

RESULTS

For nondrinking as compared with light-to-moderate drinking, the hybrid two-step approach identified 13 significant SNPs with pairwise r2 > 0.9 in the 10q24.2/COX15 region. When stratified by alcohol intake, the A allele of lead SNP rs2300985 has a dose-response increase in risk of colorectal cancer as compared with the G allele in light-to-moderate drinkers [OR for GA genotype = 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-1.17; OR for AA genotype = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31], but not in nondrinkers or heavy drinkers. Among the correlated candidate SNPs in the 10q24.2/COX15 region, rs1318920 was predicted to disrupt an HNF4 transcription factor binding motif.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that the association with colorectal cancer in 10q24.2/COX15 observed in genome-wide association study is strongest in nondrinkers. We also identified rs1318920 as the putative causal regulatory variant for the region.

IMPACT

The study identifies multifaceted evidence of a possible functional effect for rs1318920.

Association Between Aspirin Use and Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Prospective Cohort Study

Prospective data examining the association of aspirin use, according to dose and duration, with long-term risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in non-Asian cohorts are lacking. We evaluated the association between aspirin use and risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in two large prospective U.S. cohort studies, the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate multivariable adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Among the 159,116 participants, we documented 316 gastric adenocarcinoma cases (176 women, 140 men) over 34 years encompassing 4.5 million person-years. Among women, regular aspirin use (at least two times or more per week) was significantly associated with lower risk of gastric adenocarcinoma (multivariable HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.37-0.73) compared with nonregular use. However, regular aspirin use was not associated with gastric adenocarcinoma risk among men (multivariable HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.77-1.52; Pheterogeneity for sex = 0.003). Among women, the lower risk of gastric adenocarcinoma was more apparent with increasing duration of aspirin use (Ptrend < 0.001) and more than five tablets per week (multivariable HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.31-0.84). Regular, long-term aspirin use was associated with lower risk of gastric adenocarcinoma among women, but not men. The benefit appeared after at least 10 years of use and was maximized at higher doses among women. The heterogeneity by sex in the association of aspirin use with risk of gastric adenocarcinoma requires further investigation.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

Novel prevention is urgently needed to reduce incidence and mortality of gastric cancer. We found that regular aspirin use was associated with lower risk of gastric adenocarcinoma among women, but not men. The benefit appeared after at least 10 years of use and was maximized at higher doses among women. See related Spotlight, p. 213.

Associations between predicted vitamin D status, vitamin D intake, and risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D may have a role in immune responses to viral infections. However, data on the association between vitamin D and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity have been limited and inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the associations of predicted vitamin D status and intake with risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity.

METHODS

We used data from periodic surveys (May 2020 to March 2021) within the Nurses' Health Study II. Among 39,315 participants, 1768 reported a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Usual vitamin D intake from foods and supplements were measured using a semiquantitative, pre-pandemic food-frequency questionnaire in 2015. Predicted 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration were calculated based on a previously validated model including dietary and supplementary vitamin D intake, UV-B, and other behavioral predictors of vitamin D status.

RESULTS

Higher predicted 25(OH)D concentrations, but not vitamin D intake, were associated with a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Comparing participants in the highest quintile of predicted 25(OH)D concentrations with the lowest, the multivariable-adjusted OR was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.99; P-trend = 0.04). Participants in the highest quartile of UV-B (OR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.87; P-trend = 0.002) and UV-A (OR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.88; P-trend < 0.001) also had a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with the lowest. High intake of vitamin D from supplements (≥400 IU/d) was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (OR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.91; P-trend = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides suggestive evidence on the association between higher predicted circulating 25(OH)D concentrations and a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Greater intake of vitamin D supplements was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization. Our data also support an association between exposure to UV-B or UV-A, independently of vitamin D and SARS-CoV-2 infection, so results for predicted 25(OH)D need to be interpreted cautiously.

Impact of insufficient sleep on dysregulated blood glucose control under standardised meal conditions

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Sleep, diet and exercise are fundamental to metabolic homeostasis. In this secondary analysis of a repeated measures, nutritional intervention study, we tested whether an individual's sleep quality, duration and timing impact glycaemic response to a breakfast meal the following morning.

METHODS

Healthy adults' data (N = 953 [41% twins]) were analysed from the PREDICT dietary intervention trial. Participants consumed isoenergetic standardised meals over 2 weeks in the clinic and at home. Actigraphy was used to assess sleep variables (duration, efficiency, timing) and continuous glucose monitors were used to measure glycaemic variation (>8000 meals).

RESULTS

Sleep variables were significantly associated with postprandial glycaemic control (2 h incremental AUC), at both between- and within-person levels. Sleep period time interacted with meal type, with a smaller effect of poor sleep on postprandial blood glucose levels when high-carbohydrate (low fat/protein) (p_interaction = 0.02) and high-fat (p_interaction = 0.03) breakfasts were consumed compared with a reference 75 g OGTT. Within-person sleep period time had a similar interaction (high carbohydrate: p_interaction = 0.001, high fat: p_interaction = 0.02). Within- and between-person sleep efficiency were significantly associated with lower postprandial blood glucose levels irrespective of meal type (both p < 0.03). Later sleep midpoint (time deviation from midnight) was found to be significantly associated with higher postprandial glucose, in both between-person and within-person comparisons (p = 0.035 and p = 0.051, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Poor sleep efficiency and later bedtime routines are associated with more pronounced postprandial glycaemic responses to breakfast the following morning. A person's deviation from their usual sleep pattern was also associated with poorer postprandial glycaemic control. These findings underscore sleep as a modifiable, non-pharmacological therapeutic target for the optimal regulation of human metabolic health. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03479866.

Self-reported COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake among participants from different racial and ethnic groups in the United States and United Kingdom

Worldwide, racial and ethnic minorities have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 with increased risk of infection, its related complications, and death. In the initial phase of population-based vaccination in the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K.), vaccine hesitancy may result in differences in uptake. We performed a cohort study among U.S. and U.K. participants who volunteered to take part in the smartphone-based COVID Symptom Study (March 2020-February 2021) and used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios of vaccine hesitancy and uptake. In the U.S. (n = 87,388), compared to white participants, vaccine hesitancy was greater for Black and Hispanic participants and those reporting more than one or other race. In the U.K. (n = 1,254,294), racial and ethnic minority participants showed similar levels of vaccine hesitancy to the U.S. However, associations between participant race and ethnicity and levels of vaccine uptake were observed to be different in the U.S. and the U.K. studies. Among U.S. participants, vaccine uptake was significantly lower among Black participants, which persisted among participants that self-reported being vaccine-willing. In contrast, statistically significant racial and ethnic disparities in vaccine uptake were not observed in the U.K sample. In this study of self-reported vaccine hesitancy and uptake, lower levels of vaccine uptake in Black participants in the U.S. during the initial vaccine rollout may be attributable to both hesitancy and disparities in access.

Risk factors and disease profile of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK users of the COVID Symptom Study app: a prospective, community-based, nested, case-control study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccines show excellent efficacy in clinical trials and effectiveness in real-world data, but some people still become infected with SARS-CoV-2 after vaccination. This study aimed to identify risk factors for post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection and describe the characteristics of post-vaccination illness.

METHODS

This prospective, community-based, nested, case-control study used self-reported data (eg, on demographics, geographical location, health risk factors, and COVID-19 test results, symptoms, and vaccinations) from UK-based, adult (≥18 years) users of the COVID Symptom Study mobile phone app. For the risk factor analysis, cases had received a first or second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine between Dec 8, 2020, and July 4, 2021; had either a positive COVID-19 test at least 14 days after their first vaccination (but before their second; cases 1) or a positive test at least 7 days after their second vaccination (cases 2); and had no positive test before vaccination. Two control groups were selected (who also had not tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 before vaccination): users reporting a negative test at least 14 days after their first vaccination but before their second (controls 1) and users reporting a negative test at least 7 days after their second vaccination (controls 2). Controls 1 and controls 2 were matched (1:1) with cases 1 and cases 2, respectively, by the date of the post-vaccination test, health-care worker status, and sex. In the disease profile analysis, we sub-selected participants from cases 1 and cases 2 who had used the app for at least 14 consecutive days after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (cases 3 and cases 4, respectively). Controls 3 and controls 4 were unvaccinated participants reporting a positive SARS-CoV-2 test who had used the app for at least 14 consecutive days after the test, and were matched (1:1) with cases 3 and 4, respectively, by the date of the positive test, health-care worker status, sex, body-mass index (BMI), and age. We used univariate logistic regression models (adjusted for age, BMI, and sex) to analyse the associations between risk factors and post-vaccination infection, and the associations of individual symptoms, overall disease duration, and disease severity with vaccination status.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, 2020, and July 4, 2021, 1 240 009 COVID Symptom Study app users reported a first vaccine dose, of whom 6030 (0·5%) subsequently tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (cases 1), and 971 504 reported a second dose, of whom 2370 (0·2%) subsequently tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (cases 2). In the risk factor analysis, frailty was associated with post-vaccination infection in older adults (≥60 years) after their first vaccine dose (odds ratio [OR] 1·93, 95% CI 1·50-2·48; p<0·0001), and individuals living in highly deprived areas had increased odds of post-vaccination infection following their first vaccine dose (OR 1·11, 95% CI 1·01-1·23; p=0·039). Individuals without obesity (BMI <30 kg/m2) had lower odds of infection following their first vaccine dose (OR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75-0·94; p=0·0030). For the disease profile analysis, 3825 users from cases 1 were included in cases 3 and 906 users from cases 2 were included in cases 4. Vaccination (compared with no vaccination) was associated with reduced odds of hospitalisation or having more than five symptoms in the first week of illness following the first or second dose, and long-duration (≥28 days) symptoms following the second dose. Almost all symptoms were reported less frequently in infected vaccinated individuals than in infected unvaccinated individuals, and vaccinated participants were more likely to be completely asymptomatic, especially if they were 60 years or older.

INTERPRETATION

To minimise SARS-CoV-2 infection, at-risk populations must be targeted in efforts to boost vaccine effectiveness and infection control measures. Our findings might support caution around relaxing physical distancing and other personal protective measures in the post-vaccination era, particularly around frail older adults and individuals living in more deprived areas, even if these individuals are vaccinated, and might have implications for strategies such as booster vaccinations.

FUNDING

ZOE, the UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, the Wellcome Trust, the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK Research and Innovation London Medical Imaging and Artificial Intelligence Centre for Value Based Healthcare, the UK National Institute for Health Research, the UK Medical Research Council, the British Heart Foundation, and the Alzheimer's Society.

Knowledge barriers in a national symptomatic-COVID-19 testing programme

Symptomatic testing programmes are crucial to the COVID-19 pandemic response. We sought to examine United Kingdom (UK) testing rates amongst individuals with test-qualifying symptoms, and factors associated with not testing. We analysed a cohort of untested symptomatic app users (N = 1,237), nested in the Zoe COVID Symptom Study (Zoe, N = 4,394,948); and symptomatic respondents who wanted, but did not have a test (N = 1,956), drawn from a University of Maryland survey administered to Facebook users (The Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey [CTIS], N = 775,746). The proportion tested among individuals with incident test-qualifying symptoms rose from ~20% to ~75% from April to December 2020 in Zoe. Testing was lower with one vs more symptoms (72.9% vs 84.6% p<0.001), or short vs long symptom duration (69.9% vs 85.4% p<0.001). 40.4% of survey respondents did not identify all three test-qualifying symptoms. Symptom identification decreased for every decade older (OR = 0.908 [95% CI 0.883-0.933]). Amongst symptomatic UMD-CTIS respondents who wanted but did not have a test, not knowing where to go was the most cited factor (32.4%); this increased for each decade older (OR = 1.207 [1.129-1.292]) and for every 4-years fewer in education (OR = 0.685 [0.599-0.783]). Despite current UK messaging on COVID-19 testing, there is a knowledge gap about when and where to test, and this may be contributing to the ~25% testing gap. Risk factors, including older age and less education, highlight potential opportunities to tailor public health messages. The testing gap may be ever larger in countries that do not have extensive, free testing, as the UK does.

Diet and lifestyle behaviour disruption related to the pandemic was varied and bidirectional among US and UK adults participating in the ZOE COVID Study

Evidence of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health behaviours in the general population is limited. In this retrospective longitudinal study including UK and US participants, we collected diet and lifestyle data pre-pandemic (896,286) and peri-pandemic (291,871) using a mobile health app, and we computed a bidirectional health behaviour disruption index. Disruption of health behaviour was higher in younger, female and socio-economically deprived participants. Loss in body weight was greater in highly disrupted individuals than in those with low disruption. There were large inter-individual changes observed in 46 health and diet behaviours measured peri-pandemic compared with pre-pandemic, but no mean change in the total population. Individuals most adherent to less healthy pre-pandemic health behaviours improved their diet quality and weight compared with those reporting healthier pre-pandemic behaviours, irrespective of relative deprivation; therefore, for a proportion of the population, the pandemic may have provided an impetus to improve health behaviours. Public policies to tackle health inequalities widened by the pandemic should continue to prioritize diet and physical activity for all, as well as more targeted approaches to support younger females and those living in economically deprived areas.

Anxiety and depression symptoms after COVID-19 infection: results from the COVID Symptom Study app

BACKGROUND

Mental health issues have been reported after SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, comparison to prevalence in uninfected individuals and contribution from common risk factors (eg, obesity and comorbidities) have not been examined. We identified how COVID-19 relates to mental health in the large community-based COVID Symptom Study.

METHODS

We assessed anxiety and depression symptoms using two validated questionnaires in 413148 individuals between February and April 2021; 26998 had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We adjusted for physical and mental prepandemic comorbidities, body mass index (BMI), age and sex.

FINDINGS

Overall, 26.4% of participants met screening criteria for general anxiety and depression. Anxiety and depression were slightly more prevalent in previously SARS-CoV-2-positive (30.4%) vs SARS-CoV-2-negative (26.1%) individuals. This association was small compared with the effect of an unhealthy BMI and the presence of other comorbidities, and not evident in younger participants (≤40 years). Findings were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. Association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and anxiety and depression was stronger in individuals with recent (<30 days) versus more distant (>120 days) infection, suggesting a short-term effect.

INTERPRETATION

A small association was identified between SARS-CoV-2 infection and anxiety and depression symptoms. The proportion meeting criteria for self-reported anxiety and depression disorders is only slightly higher than prepandemic.

Transcriptome-wide In Vitro Effects of Aspirin on Patient-derived Normal Colon Organoids

Mechanisms underlying aspirin chemoprevention of colorectal cancer remain unclear. Prior studies have been limited because of the inability of preclinical models to recapitulate human normal colon epithelium or cellular heterogeneity present in mucosal biopsies. To overcome some of these obstacles, we performed in vitro aspirin treatment of colon organoids derived from normal mucosal biopsies to reveal transcriptional networks relevant to aspirin chemoprevention. Colon organoids derived from 38 healthy individuals undergoing endoscopy were treated with 50 μmol/L aspirin or vehicle control for 72 hours and subjected to bulk RNA sequencing. Paired regression analysis using DESeq2 identified differentially expressed genes (DEG) associated with aspirin treatment. Cellular composition was determined using CIBERSORTx. Aspirin treatment was associated with 1,154 significant (q < 0.10) DEGs prior to deconvolution. We provide replication of these findings in an independent population-based RNA-sequencing dataset of mucosal biopsies (BarcUVa-Seq), where a significant enrichment for overlap of DEGs was observed (P < 2.2E-16). Single-cell deconvolution revealed changes in cell composition, including a decrease in transit-amplifying cells following aspirin treatment (P = 0.01). Following deconvolution, DEGs included novel putative targets for aspirin such as TRABD2A (q = 0.055), a negative regulator of Wnt signaling. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis identified 12 significant modules, including two that contained hubs for EGFR and PTGES2, the latter being previously implicated in aspirin chemoprevention. In summary, aspirin treatment of patient-derived colon organoids using physiologically relevant doses resulted in transcriptome-wide changes that reveal altered cell composition and improved understanding of transcriptional pathways, providing novel insight into its chemopreventive properties. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Numerous studies have highlighted a role for aspirin in colorectal cancer chemoprevention, though the mechanisms driving this association remain unclear. We addressed this by showing that aspirin treatment of normal colon organoids diminished the transit-amplifying cell population, inhibited prostaglandin synthesis, and dysregulated expression of novel genes implicated in colon tumorigenesis.

Salicylic Acid and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

Salicylic acid (SA) has observationally been shown to decrease colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid, that rapidly deacetylates to SA) is an effective primary and secondary chemopreventive agent. Through a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach, we aimed to address whether levels of SA affected CRC risk, stratifying by aspirin use. A two-sample MR analysis was performed using GWAS summary statistics of SA (INTERVAL and EPIC-Norfolk, N = 14,149) and CRC (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO and UK Biobank, 55,168 cases and 65,160 controls). The DACHS study (4410 cases and 3441 controls) was used for replication and stratification of aspirin-use. SNPs proxying SA were selected via three methods: (1) functional SNPs that influence the activity of aspirin-metabolising enzymes; (2) pathway SNPs present in enzymes' coding regions; and (3) genome-wide significant SNPs. We found no association between functional SNPs and SA levels. The pathway and genome-wide SNPs showed no association between SA and CRC risk (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.84-1.27 and OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86-1.34, respectively). Results remained unchanged upon aspirin use stratification. We found little evidence to suggest that an SD increase in genetically predicted SA protects against CRC risk in the general population and upon stratification by aspirin use.

Smoking Behavior and Prognosis After Colorectal Cancer Diagnosis: A Pooled Analysis of 11 Studies

Background

Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies, but current evidence on smoking in association with survival after CRC diagnosis is limited.

Methods

We pooled data from 12 345 patients with stage I-IV CRC from 11 epidemiologic studies in the International Survival Analysis in Colorectal Cancer Consortium. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate the associations of prediagnostic smoking behavior with overall, CRC-specific, and non-CRC-specific survival.

Results

Among 12 345 patients with CRC, 4379 (35.5%) died (2515 from CRC) over a median follow-up time of 7.5 years. Smoking was strongly associated with worse survival in stage I-III patients, whereas no association was observed among stage IV patients. Among stage I-III patients, clear dose-response relationships with all survival outcomes were seen for current smokers. For example, current smokers with 40 or more pack-years had statistically significantly worse overall, CRC-specific, and non-CRC-specific survival compared with never smokers (hazard ratio [HR] =1.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.68 to 2.25; HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.12 to 1.78; and HR = 2.67, 95% CI = 2.19 to 3.26, respectively). Similar associations with all survival outcomes were observed for former smokers who had quit for less than 10 years, but only a weak association with non-CRC-specific survival was seen among former smokers who had quit for more than 10 years.

Conclusions

This large consortium of CRC patient studies provides compelling evidence that smoking is strongly associated with worse survival of stage I-III CRC patients in a clear dose-response manner. The detrimental effect of smoking was primarily related to noncolorectal cancer events, but current heavy smoking also showed an association with CRC-specific survival.

Diet quality and risk and severity of COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Poor metabolic health and unhealthy lifestyle factors have been associated with risk and severity of COVID-19, but data for diet are lacking. We aimed to investigate the association of diet quality with risk and severity of COVID-19 and its interaction with socioeconomic deprivation.

DESIGN

We used data from 592 571 participants of the smartphone-based COVID-19 Symptom Study. Diet information was collected for the prepandemic period using a short food frequency questionnaire, and diet quality was assessed using a healthful Plant-Based Diet Score, which emphasises healthy plant foods such as fruits or vegetables. Multivariable Cox models were fitted to calculate HRs and 95% CIs for COVID-19 risk and severity defined using a validated symptom-based algorithm or hospitalisation with oxygen support, respectively.

RESULTS

Over 3 886 274 person-months of follow-up, 31 815 COVID-19 cases were documented. Compared with individuals in the lowest quartile of the diet score, high diet quality was associated with lower risk of COVID-19 (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and severe COVID-19 (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.74). The joint association of low diet quality and increased deprivation on COVID-19 risk was higher than the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction=0.005). The corresponding absolute excess rate per 10 000 person/months for lowest vs highest quartile of diet score was 22.5 (95% CI 18.8 to 26.3) among persons living in areas with low deprivation and 40.8 (95% CI 31.7 to 49.8) among persons living in areas with high deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

A diet characterised by healthy plant-based foods was associated with lower risk and severity of COVID-19. This association may be particularly evident among individuals living in areas with higher socioeconomic deprivation.

Soluble Klotho and Incident Hypertension

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Hypertension is associated with significant morbidity and mortality despite effective antihypertensive therapies. Soluble klotho is a circulating protein that in preclinical studies is protective against the development of hypertension. There are limited studies of klotho and blood pressure in humans.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Within the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study, a cohort of well-functioning older adults, soluble klotho was measured in serum. We evaluated the cross-sectional and longitudinal association between klotho and blood pressure, prevalent hypertension, incident hypertension, and BP trajectories. Analyses were adjusted for demographics, cardiovascular disease and kidney disease risk factors, and measures of mineral metabolism including calcium, phosphate, parathyroid hormone, 25(OH) vitamin D, and fibroblast growth factor 23.

RESULTS

The median klotho concentration was 630 pg/ml (478-816, 25th to 75th percentile). Within the cohort, 2093 (76%) of 2774 participants had prevalent hypertension and 476 (70%) of the remaining 681 developed incident hypertension. There was no association between klotho and prevalent hypertension or baseline systolic BP, but higher klotho was associated with higher baseline diastolic BP (fully adjusted β=0.92 mmHg, 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 1.60 mmHg, higher per two-fold higher klotho). Higher baseline serum klotho levels were significantly associated with a lower rate of incident hypertension (fully adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.69 to 0.93 for every two-fold higher klotho). Higher klotho was also associated with lower subsequent systolic BP and diastolic BP (-0.16, 95% confidence interval, -0.31 to -0.01, mmHg lower systolic BP per year and -0.10, 95% confidence interval, -0.18 to -0.02, mmHg lower diastolic BP per year, for each two-fold higher klotho).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher klotho is associated with higher baseline diastolic but not systolic BP, a lower risk of incident hypertension, and lower BP trajectories during follow-up.

Metabolomics as a Tool for Biomarker Discovery in Gastric Cancer

Globally, early detection and interception of gastric cancer remains limited by the lack of a broad screening paradigm for individuals with the exception of those at established hereditary risk (e.g., hereditary diffuse gastric cancer or CDH1 germline mutation status). The path forward will likely rely on establishment of biomarkers using multiple -omic approaches to detect molecular profiles associated with gastric cancer risk that can in turn be leveraged to identify individuals who may benefit from more intensive evaluation, such as screening endoscopy. In this issue, Shu and colleagues describe the results of a case-control cohort study of Asian individuals that demonstrates baseline metabolite levels are predictive of future gastric cancer risk above and beyond lifestyle and demographic risk factors. We discuss the promise and limitations of these exemplar circulating biomarkers and emphasize the need for a multifactorial risk assessment to advance precision prevention and early detection of gastric cancer.See related article by Shu et al., p. 1634.

Anosmia, ageusia, and other COVID-19-like symptoms in association with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, across six national digital surveillance platforms: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Multiple voluntary surveillance platforms were developed across the world in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, providing a real-time understanding of population-based COVID-19 epidemiology. During this time, testing criteria broadened and health-care policies matured. We aimed to test whether there were consistent associations of symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 test status across three surveillance platforms in three countries (two platforms per country), during periods of testing and policy changes.

METHODS

For this observational study, we used data of observations from three volunteer COVID-19 digital surveillance platforms (Carnegie Mellon University and University of Maryland Facebook COVID-19 Symptom Survey, ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, and the Corona Israel study) targeting communities in three countries (Israel, the UK, and the USA; two platforms per country). The study population included adult respondents (age 18-100 years at baseline) who were not health-care workers. We did logistic regression of self-reported symptoms on self-reported SARS-CoV-2 test status (positive or negative), adjusted for age and sex, in each of the study cohorts. We compared odds ratios (ORs) across platforms and countries, and we did meta-analyses assuming a random effects model. We also evaluated testing policy changes, COVID-19 incidence, and time scales of duration of symptoms and symptom-to-test time.

FINDINGS

Between April 1 and July 31, 2020, 514 459 tests from over 10 million respondents were recorded in the six surveillance platform datasets. Anosmia-ageusia was the strongest, most consistent symptom associated with a positive COVID-19 test (robust aggregated rank one, meta-analysed random effects OR 16·96, 95% CI 13·13-21·92). Fever (rank two, 6·45, 4·25-9·81), shortness of breath (rank three, 4·69, 3·14-7·01), and cough (rank four, 4·29, 3·13-5·88) were also highly associated with test positivity. The association of symptoms with test status varied by duration of illness, timing of the test, and broader test criteria, as well as over time, by country, and by platform.

INTERPRETATION

The strong association of anosmia-ageusia with self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 test was consistently observed, supporting its validity as a reliable COVID-19 signal, regardless of the participatory surveillance platform, country, phase of illness, or testing policy. These findings show that associations between COVID-19 symptoms and test positivity ranked similarly in a wide range of scenarios. Anosmia, fever, and respiratory symptoms consistently had the strongest effect estimates and were the most appropriate empirical signals for symptom-based public health surveillance in areas with insufficient testing or benchmarking capacity. Collaborative syndromic surveillance could enhance real-time epidemiological investigations and public health utility globally.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, National Institute for Health Research, Alzheimer's Society, Wellcome Trust, and Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Race, ethnicity, community-level socioeconomic factors, and risk of COVID-19 in the United States and the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

There is limited prior investigation of the combined influence of personal and community-level socioeconomic factors on racial/ethnic disparities in individual risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis nested within a prospective cohort of 2,102,364 participants from March 29, 2020 in the United States (US) and March 24, 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK) through December 02, 2020 via the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application. We examined the contribution of community-level deprivation using the Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) to observe racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04331509.

FINDINGS

Compared with non-Hispanic White participants, the risk for a positive COVID-19 test was increased in the US for non-Hispanic Black (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.47) and Hispanic participants (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.33-1.52) and in the UK for Black (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34), South Asian (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30-1.49), and Middle Eastern participants (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18-1.61). This elevated risk was associated with living in more deprived communities according to the NDI/IMD. After accounting for downstream mediators of COVID-19 risk, community-level deprivation still mediated 16.6% and 7.7% of the excess risk in Black compared to White participants in the US and the UK, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Our results illustrate the critical role of social determinants of health in the disproportionate COVID-19 risk experienced by racial and ethnic minorities.

Early detection of COVID-19 in the UK using self-reported symptoms: a large-scale, prospective, epidemiological surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Self-reported symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic have been used to train artificial intelligence models to identify possible infection foci. To date, these models have only considered the culmination or peak of symptoms, which is not suitable for the early detection of infection. We aimed to estimate the probability of an individual being infected with SARS-CoV-2 on the basis of early self-reported symptoms to enable timely self-isolation and urgent testing.

METHODS

In this large-scale, prospective, epidemiological surveillance study, we used prospective, observational, longitudinal, self-reported data from participants in the UK on 19 symptoms over 3 days after symptoms onset and COVID-19 PCR test results extracted from the COVID-19 Symptom Study mobile phone app. We divided the study population into a training set (those who reported symptoms between April 29, 2020, and Oct 15, 2020) and a test set (those who reported symptoms between Oct 16, 2020, and Nov 30, 2020), and used three models to analyse the self-reported symptoms: the UK's National Health Service (NHS) algorithm, logistic regression, and the hierarchical Gaussian process model we designed to account for several important variables (eg, specific COVID-19 symptoms, comorbidities, and clinical information). Model performance to predict COVID-19 positivity was compared in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the test set. For the hierarchical Gaussian process model, we also evaluated the relevance of symptoms in the early detection of COVID-19 in population subgroups stratified according to occupation, sex, age, and body-mass index.

FINDINGS

The training set comprised 182 991 participants and the test set comprised 15 049 participants. When trained on 3 days of self-reported symptoms, the hierarchical Gaussian process model had a higher prediction AUC (0·80 [95% CI 0·80-0·81]) than did the logistic regression model (0·74 [0·74-0·75]) and the NHS algorithm (0·67 [0·67-0·67]). AUCs for all models increased with the number of days of self-reported symptoms, but were still high for the hierarchical Gaussian process model at day 1 (0·73 [95% CI 0·73-0·74]) and day 2 (0·79 [0·78-0·79]). At day 3, the hierarchical Gaussian process model also had a significantly higher sensitivity, but a non-statistically lower specificity, than did the two other models. The hierarchical Gaussian process model also identified different sets of relevant features to detect COVID-19 between younger and older subgroups, and between health-care workers and non-health-care workers. When used during different pandemic periods, the model was robust to changes in populations.

INTERPRETATION

Early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection is feasible with our model. Such early detection is crucial to contain the spread of COVID-19 and efficiently allocate medical resources.

FUNDING

ZOE, the UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, the Wellcome Trust, the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the UK National Institute for Health Research, the UK Medical Research Council, the British Heart Foundation, the Alzheimer's Society, the Chronic Disease Research Foundation, and the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Anxiety and depression symptoms after COVID-19 infection: results from the COVID Symptom Study app

BACKGROUND

Mental health issues have been reported after SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, comparison to prevalence in uninfected individuals and contribution from common risk factors (e.g., obesity, comorbidities) have not been examined. We identified how COVID-19 relates to mental health in the large community-based COVID Symptom Study.

METHODS

We assessed anxiety and depression symptoms using two validated questionnaires in 413,148 individuals between February and April 2021; 26,998 had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We adjusted for physical and mental pre-pandemic comorbidities, BMI, age, and sex.

FINDINGS

Overall, 26.4% of participants met screening criteria for general anxiety and depression. Anxiety and depression were slightly more prevalent in previously SARS-CoV-2 positive (30.4%) vs. negative (26.1%) individuals. This association was small compared to the effect of an unhealthy BMI and the presence of other comorbidities, and not evident in younger participants (≤40 years). Findings were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. Association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and anxiety and depression was stronger in individuals with recent (<30 days) vs. more distant (>120 days) infection, suggesting a short-term effect.

INTERPRETATION

A small association was identified between SARS-CoV-2 infection and anxiety and depression symptoms. The proportion meeting criteria for self-reported anxiety and depression disorders is only slightly higher than pre-pandemic.

FUNDING

Zoe Limited, National Institute for Health Research, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council UK.

Abstract LB090: Associations of somatically mutated genes and pathways with colorectal cancer specific survival in 4,500 colorectal cancer patients

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a heterogenous disease that develops through somatic mutations in driver genes, leading to activation of diverse neoplastic pathways. To systematically examine if somatically mutated genes and pathways impact survival, we sequenced tumor and normal DNA samples for 4,512 CRC cases using a targeted panel. We performed Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of disease-specific (DS)-survival with somatically mutated genes and pathways, adjusting for age and sex, and stratifying baseline hazards by study population. We assessed statistical significance using Bonferroni p-value thresholds to account for multiple testing of 214 genes (2.34x10-4) and 6 key CRC pathways (8.3x10-3). We limited analyses to non-silent mutations.

We observed that DS-survival was significantly more favorable among individuals with hypermutated (HM) tumors, primarily consisting of microsatellite unstable and POLE-mutated tumors, as compared to those with non-hypermutated (NHM) tumors (HR=0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.5, p=1.2x10-17). BRAF V600E mutations were associated with poorer survival (HR=2.0, 95% CI: 1.6-2.5, p=1.6x10-10). This association was more pronounced among NHM tumors (HR=2.3, 95% CI: 1.8-2.9, p=4.3x10-12). We identified suggestive associations (p-values &lt; 5.0x10-3 in overall or stratified analyses) between DS-survival and mutations in B2M, TP53, and SMAD4. Mutations in B2M may provide more favorable prognosis for survival (HR=0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8, p=4.4x10-3), with similar effect sizes in HM and NHM tumors. Poorer survival may be associated with mutations in TP53 (HR=1.2, 95% CI:1.2-1.4, p=9.3x10-4) and SMAD4 (HR=1.3, 95% CI:1.1-1.6, p=3.2x10-3) in NHM tumors.

We further observed statistically significant associations between survival and three mutated pathways: TP53/ATM (HR=1.2, 95% CI:1.1-1.4, p=9.0x10-4), receptor tyrosine kinases (RTK) and RAS (HR=1.3, 95% CI:1.1-1.5, p=4.5x10-5), and TGF-beta (HR=1.3, 95% CI:1.1-1.5, p=2.9x10-4). Findings for TP53/ATM and RTK/RAS were primarily due to mutations in one gene within each pathway (TP53 and BRAF, respectively). However, the TGF-beta pathway finding, which was more pronounced in NHM tumors, included two genes with p-values less than 0.05 (SMAD4 p=3.2x10-3 and TGFBR2 p=0.01).

Despite our large sample size, relatively few somatically mutated genes were significantly associated with DS-survival. It may be that pathway-level testing affords more power for analyses and that larger sample sizes are needed. It is of interest that non-silent mutations in B2M, whose product is a component of the class I major histocompatibility complex, was associated with improved DS-survival, though our finding was not statistically significant after multiple testing correction so further exploration and replication is needed.

Citation Format: Tabitha A. Harrison, Syed H. Zaidi, Conghui Qu, Amanda I. Phipps, Robert S. Steinfelder, Quang M. Trinh, Sonja I. Berndt, Daniel D. Buchanan, Peter T. Campbell, Andrew T. Chan, Kim F. Doheny, David A. Drew, Jane C. Figueiredo, Steven J. Gallinger, Marios Giannakis, Andrea Gsur, Marc J. Gunter, Michael Hoffmeister, Wen-Yi Huang, Paul J. Limburg, Victor Moreno, Polly A. Newcomb, Shuji Ogino, Ross L. Prentice, Tameka Shelford, Wei Sun, Stephen N. Thibodeau, Li Hsu, Ulrike Peters. Associations of somatically mutated genes and pathways with colorectal cancer specific survival in 4,500 colorectal cancer patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr LB090.

Vaccine side-effects and SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination in users of the COVID Symptom Study app in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) and the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) COVID-19 vaccines have shown excellent safety and efficacy in phase 3 trials. We aimed to investigate the safety and effectiveness of these vaccines in a UK community setting.

METHODS

In this prospective observational study, we examined the proportion and probability of self-reported systemic and local side-effects within 8 days of vaccination in individuals using the COVID Symptom Study app who received one or two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine or one dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. We also compared infection rates in a subset of vaccinated individuals subsequently tested for SARS-CoV-2 with PCR or lateral flow tests with infection rates in unvaccinated controls. All analyses were adjusted by age (≤55 years vs >55 years), sex, health-care worker status (binary variable), obesity (BMI <30 kg/m2vs ≥30 kg/m2), and comorbidities (binary variable, with or without comorbidities).

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, and March 10, 2021, 627 383 individuals reported being vaccinated with 655 590 doses: 282 103 received one dose of BNT162b2, of whom 28 207 received a second dose, and 345 280 received one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were reported by 13·5% (38 155 of 282 103) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 22·0% (6216 of 28 207) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 33·7% (116 473 of 345 280) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Local side-effects were reported by 71·9% (150 023 of 208 767) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 68·5% (9025 of 13 179) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 58·7% (104 282 of 177 655) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were more common (1·6 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 2·9 times after the first dose of BNT162b2) among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than among those without known past infection. Local effects were similarly higher in individuals previously infected than in those without known past infection (1·4 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 1·2 times after the first dose of BNT162b2). 3106 of 103 622 vaccinated individuals and 50 340 of 464 356 unvaccinated controls tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Significant reductions in infection risk were seen starting at 12 days after the first dose, reaching 60% (95% CI 49-68) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 69% (66-72) for BNT162b2 at 21-44 days and 72% (63-79) for BNT162b2 after 45-59 days.

INTERPRETATION

Systemic and local side-effects after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination occur at frequencies lower than reported in phase 3 trials. Both vaccines decrease the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection after 12 days.

FUNDING

ZOE Global, National Institute for Health Research, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, UK Research and Innovation, American Gastroenterological Association.

Abstract 820: NSAIDs and colorectal cancer risk: Results from genome-wide interaction scans

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are consistently shown in epidemiological and clinical studies to exert chemo-preventive effects on colorectal cancer (CRC). Specifically, aspirin binds irreversibly to COX1/2 enzymes, attenuating pro-inflammatory signaling pathways, but it can also exert protective effects via Wnt-β-catenin signaling, circulating inflammatory cytokines, and platelet mediated mechanisms. In this analysis, we conduct genome-wide interaction scans on a large CRC dataset to expand upon previous work and identify novel G x NSAIDs interactions.

We pooled epidemiological and imputed genetic data from 72,667 individuals (41,876 controls, and 30,806 cases) of European descent from 31 studies. Genotypes were imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium panel. Regular use of aspirin and combined aspirin/non-aspirin NSAIDs (henceforth termed ‘nsaidsALL') were harmonized across studies and measured as ever/never at reference time. We employed several statistical methods in our GWIS: traditional logistic regression with an interaction term, case-only analyses, joint tests (2df/3df), two-step methods. We also assessed interactions between CRC polygenic risk scores (PRS) and aspirin/nsaidsALL on additive and multiplicative scales. PRS was modeled categorically (quartiles) and continuously as a per 1 SD increase from the minimum value. All models were adjusted for age, sex, study, and ancestry.

Aspirin (OR=0.789, 95% CI=0.753-0.826) and nsaidsALL (OR=0.760; 95% CI=0.726-0.793) use were inversely associated with CRC risk. Using standard logistic regression, we identified a genome-wide significant interaction between rs72833769 (chromosome 6 intergenic region upstream of PHACTR1) and both aspirin and nsaidsALL (p = 4.0e-09, p = 1.3e-08, respectively). An additional genome-wide interaction locus was identified for nsaidsALL only, on rs35118762 (p = 2.2e-08), located in the Major Histocompatibility Complex region and in close linkage with a previously identified marginal GWAS hit (rs9271695). We identified another region of interest using two-step methods tagged by SNP rs350047 (aspirin pgxe = 1.1e-05, nsaidsALL pgxe = 4.4e-05). This region also coincides with another previously identified marginal GWAS hit (rs12514517), and is notable for being upstream of PTGER4, an important receptor for aspirin mediated inflammatory response signaling. For interactions with PRS, we observed a significant super-additive interaction for both aspirin (RERI=0.102, p=7e-08) and nsaidsALL use (RERI=0.132, p=4.6e-12). Results were similar when modeling PRS categorically. There were no multiplicative scale interactions between PRS and any NSAID use.

GWIS for aspirin and nsaidsALL use identified several loci of interest that warrant follow-up in functional studies.

Citation Format: Andre E. Kim, David A. Drew, Yi Lin, Conghui Qu, John P. Morrison, Stephanie Bien, Victor Moreno, Graham Casey, Ulrike Peters, Andrew T. Chan, W James Gauderman. NSAIDs and colorectal cancer risk: Results from genome-wide interaction scans [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr 820.