Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission

We propose a parsimonious, yet effective, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-type model that incorporates the time change in the transmission and death rates. The model is calibrated by Tikhonov-type regularization from official reports from New York City (NYC), Chicago, the State of São Paulo, in Brazil and British Columbia, in Canada. To forecast, we propose different ways to extend the transmission parameter, considering its estimated values. The forecast accuracy is then evaluated using real data from the above referred places. All the techniques accurately provided forecast scenarios for periods 15 days long. One of the models effectively predicted the magnitude of the four waves of infections in NYC, including the one caused by the Omicron variant for periods of 45 days using out-of-sample data.

Estimating the number of unvaccinated Chinese workers against yellow fever in Angola

BACKGROUND

A yellow fever epidemic occurred in Angola in 2016 with 884 laboratory confirmed cases and 373 deaths. Eleven unvaccinated Chinese nationals working in Angola were also infected and imported the disease to China, thereby presenting the first importation of yellow fever into Asia. In Angola, there are about 259,000 Chinese foreign workers. The fact that 11 unvaccinated Chinese workers acquired yellow fever suggests that many more Chinese workers in Angola were not vaccinated.

METHODS

We applied a previously developed model to back-calculate the number of unvaccinated Chinese workers in Angola in order to determine the extent of lack of vaccine coverage.

RESULTS

Our models suggest that none of the 259,000 Chinese had been vaccinated, although yellow fever vaccination is mandated by the International Health Regulations.

CONCLUSION

Governments around the world including China need to ensure that their citizens obtain YF vaccination when traveling to countries where such vaccines are required in order to prevent the international spread of yellow fever.

The Use of a Personal Computer in the Pulmonary Function Tests of Laboratory Rats

A system consisting of an 8-bit word microcomputer of the APPLE line equipped with an analog-to-digital converter, connected to a physiograph measuring pressures from a whole-body Plethysmograph, was used to perform pulmonary tests in rats. The system proved to be time-saving without loss in accuracy when compared to manual calculation methods. It allows measurement repetition during the same experiment, which is impossible by manual techniques, and permits to obtain flow/volume relationships without pneumotachographs or integrator and/or differentiator modules. This approach may be applied to humans and used by any physician.

ZikaPLAN: Zika Preparedness Latin American Network

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands has underlined the need for a coordinated research network across the whole region that can respond rapidly to address the current knowledge gaps in Zika and enhance research preparedness beyond Zika. The European Union under its Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme awarded three research consortia to respond to this need. Here we present the ZikaPLAN (Zika Preparedness Latin American Network) consortium. ZikaPLAN combines the strengths of 25 partners in Latin America, North America, Africa, Asia, and various centers in Europe. We will conduct clinical studies to estimate the risk and further define the full spectrum and risk factors of congenital Zika virus syndrome (including neurodevelopmental milestones in the first 3 years of life), delineate neurological complications associated with ZIKV due to direct neuroinvasion and immune-mediated responses in older children and adults, and strengthen surveillance for birth defects and Guillain-Barré Syndrome. Laboratory-based research to unravel neurotropism and investigate the role of sexual transmission, determinants of severe disease, and viral fitness will underpin the clinical studies. Social messaging and engagement with affected communities, as well as development of wearable repellent technologies against Aedes mosquitoes will enhance the impact. Burden of disease studies, data-driven vector control, and vaccine modeling as well as risk assessments on geographic spread of ZIKV will form the foundation for evidence-informed policies. While addressing the research gaps around ZIKV, we will engage in capacity building in laboratory and clinical research, collaborate with existing and new networks to share knowledge, and work with international organizations to tackle regulatory and other bottlenecks and refine research priorities. In this way, we can leverage the ZIKV response toward building a long-term emerging infectious diseases response capacity in the region to address future challenges.

Does anti-hepatitis B virus vaccine make any difference in long-term number of liver transplantation?

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Our aim is to analyze, through a mathematical model, the potential impact of anti-HBV vaccine in the long-term (that is, decades after vaccination) number of LT.

METHODS

The model simulated that the prevalence of HBV infection was 0.5% and that approximately 20% of all the liver transplantation carried out in the state of São Paulo are due to HBV infection.

RESULTS

The theoretical model suggests that a vaccination program that would cover 80% of the target population would reach a maximum of about 14% reduction in the LT program.

CONCLUSION

Increasing the vaccination coverage against HBV in the state of São Paulo would have a relatively low impact on the number of liver transplantation. In addition, this impact would take several decades to materialize due to the long incubation period of liver failure due to HBV.

Potential effect of using ABO-compatible living-donor liver transplantation

Liver transplantation increased 1.84-fold from 1988 to 2004. However, the number of patients on the waiting list for a liver increased 2.71-fold, from 553 to 1500. We used a mathematical equation to analyze the potential effect of using ABO-compatible living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) on both our liver transplantation program and the waiting list. We calculated the prevalence distribution of blood groups (O, A, B, and AB) in the population and the probability of having a compatible parent or sibling for LDLT. The incidence of ABO compatibility in the overall population was as follows: A, 0.31; B, 0.133; O, 0.512; and AB, 0.04. The ABO compatibility for parent donors was blood group A, 0.174; B, 0.06; O, 0.152; and AB, 0.03; and for sibling donors was A, 0.121; B, 0.05; O, 0.354; and AB, 0.03. Use of LDLT can reduce the pressure on our liver transplantation waiting list by decreasing its size by at least 16.5% at 20 years after its introduction. Such a program could save an estimated 3600 lives over the same period.

Estimation of R0 from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0)>1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

Vaccinating the vampire bat Desmodus rotundus against rabies

The objective of this study was to extend the previous work of indirect oral rabies immunization of vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) maintained in captivity, which demonstrated the immunogenicity of the V-RG vaccine (Vaccinia-Rabies Glycoprotein) and indicated that although the results had been encouraging, a new method for concentrating the vaccine should be tested in order to avoid vaccine loss and increase the survival proportion of bats after rabies challenge. In this study, three groups of seven bats each were tested with vaccine concentrated by ultrafiltration through a cellulose membrane. The vaccine was homogenized in Vaseline paste and applied to the back of one vector bat, which was then reintroduced into its group. A dose of 10(5.0) MICLD(50) rabies virus was used by intramuscular route to challenge the bats postvaccination. The survival proportion in the three groups after the challenge was 71.4%, 71.4% and 100%.

The elimination of Chagas' disease from Brazil

On 9 June 2006 the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) presented the Minister of Health of Brazil with the International Elimination of Transmission of Chagas' Disease Certificate. This act was the culmination of an intensive process that began in 1991 with the Southern Cone Initiative, a joint agreement between the governments of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay and Peru, to control Chagas' disease by the elimination of the main vector, Triatoma infestans. This initiative has been highly successful and the prevalence area of the vector diminished rapidly in the last years. As a consequence, the current seroprevalence in children aged between 0 and 5 years is of the order of 10(-5), a clear indication that transmission, if it is occurring, is only accidental. In this review I calculate the basic reproduction number, R0, for Chagas' disease and demonstrate that its relatively low value (1.25) explains why vectorial transmission was interrupted relatively easily. In addition, I used a mathematical model to forecast how long the remaining cases of the disease, as well as the additional vertically transmitted cases will last.

Seroprevalence of human parvovirus B19 in a suburban population in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the prevalence of IgG antibodies to human parvovirus B19.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study in a suburban community in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between November 1990 and January 1991. Randomly selected (N=435) representative samples of sera were collected from healthy children older than 15 days old and adults up to 40 years old. IgG antibodies were detected using ELISA.

RESULTS

High prevalence of IgG antibodies to B19 parvovirus was found in 87% of newborns. The prevalence of maternally derived IgG antibodies exponentially plunged up to the 19th month of age. Low prevalence of antibodies was found in the first 4 years of life, increasing up to 72% in those aged 31-40 years. It was estimated that the average age of first infection in this population is 21 +/- 7 years old and the optimal age for vaccination with a hypothetical vaccine would be 1 year of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Parvovirus B19 IgG antibody prevalence was high in newborns and those aged 31-40 years. The analysis by age groups showed a pattern similar to that found in previous studies, i.e., low prevalence of infection in children that increases with age.

Time variation of some selected topics in bioethical publications

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the time variation of topics in bioethical publications as a proxy of the relative importance.

METHODS

We searched the Medline database for bioethics publications using the words "ethics or bioethics", and for 360 specific topics publications, associating Medical Subject Heading topic descriptors to those words. We calculated the ratio of bioethics publications to the total publications of Medline, and the ratio of each topic publications to the total bioethics publications, for five-year intervals, from 1970 to 2004. We calculated the time variation of ratios, dividing the difference between the highest and lowest ratio of each topic by its highest ratio. Four topics were described, selected to illustrate different patterns of variation: "Induced Abortion", "Conflict of Interest", "Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome", "Medical Education."

RESULTS

The ratio of bioethics publications to total Medline publications increased from 0.003 to 0.012. The variation of the topic's ratios was higher than 0.7 for 68% of the topics. The Induced Abortion ratios decreased from 0.12 to 0.02. Conflict of Interest ratios increased from zero to 0.07. The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ratios were nearly zero in the first three intervals, had a peak of 0.06 during 1985-9, followed by a decrease to 0.01. Medical Education ratios varied few, from 0.04 to 0.03.

CONCLUSIONS

There was an increase of bioethical publications in the Medline database. The topics in bioethics literature have an important time variation. Some factors were suggested to explain this variation: current legal cases, resolution of the issue, saturation of a discussion and epidemiologic importance.

Threshold conditions for a non-autonomous epidemic system describing the population dynamics of dengue

A non-autonomous dynamical system, in which the seasonal variation of a mosquito vector population is modeled, is proposed to investigate dengue overwintering. A time-dependent threshold, R(t), is deduced such that when its yearly average, denoted by R, is less than 1, the disease does not invade the populations and when R is greater than 1 it does. By not invading the population we mean that the number of infected individuals always decrease in subsequent seasons of transmission. Using the same threshold, all the qualitative features of the resulting epidemic can be understood. Our model suggests that trans-ovarial infection in the mosquitoes facilitates dengue overwintering. We also explain the delay between the peak in the mosquitoes population and the peak in dengue cases.

The impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence

A theoretical framework is proposed on which some hypotheses related to the impact of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of HIV virulence can be tested. For this, a linear increase of risk behaviour with vaccine efficacy is assumed. This is based on the hypothesis that people are prone to relax preventive measures by knowing that they and their partners are vaccinated and that this effect is more intense the more effective the vaccine is known to be. An additional, and perhaps more important hypothesis is related to the theoretical possibility that increased risk behaviour of some vaccinated individuals in partially protected populations could act as a selective pressure toward more virulent HIV strains. Those hypotheses were tested by a mathematical model that considers three different HIV strains competing against each other in a population partially protected by imperfect vaccines of distinct efficacies. Simulations of the model demonstrated that, under the above hypotheses, there is a shift in HIV virulence towards more aggressive strains with increase in vaccine efficacy, associated with a marked reduction in the total amount of transmission and, consequently, in the prevalence of HIV. Potential ways for further testing the theory/model and the implications of the results are discussed.

Liver Transplantation: Waiting List Dynamics in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

São Paulo is the first Brazilian state to perform liver transplantation in 1968. Since then the recipient waiting list has increased; now approximately 150 new cases per month are referred to the single list at the central organ procurement organization. Official data have shown 37.3 monthly deaths on the waiting list in the state of São Paulo. The number of liver transplants has increased after the creation of São Paulo transplant notification centers but are insufficient to deal with the increasing waiting list. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the performance of our state liver transplantation program and analyze when the number of liver transplantations will meet our waiting list demand.

Age-specific seroprevalence to an immunodominant Cryptosporidium sporozoite antigen in a Brazilian population

The seroepidemiology of Cryptosporidium infection was investigated in a representative sample of a normal population in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil using a recombinant form of the immunodominant 27-kDa sporozoite antigen. IgG seropositivity was low in infants following loss of maternal antibody but quickly increased to approximately 60% by 5 years, then 80% by the age of 10 years, after which prevalence remained constant. The broad range of antibody concentrations is consistent with previous reports that the IgG response to C. parvum is short-lived. There is also evidence that average antibody concentrations increase with age. Results suggest that the recombinant antigen may be a more sensitive method of measuring seroprevalence than the native antigen in Western blot. Although cross-sectional studies can provide an insight into the epidemiology of C. parvum in normal populations, further studies investigating the dynamics of the humoral immune responses to Cryptosporidium and the use of serology in epidemiological studies are required.

Experimental rabies infection in haematophagous bats Desmodus rotundus

In order to determine the susceptibility and serum neutralizing antibody response of Desmodus rotundus to rabies virus, bats were inoculated with a virus isolated from a naturally infected haematophagous bat. Bats were divided into four groups of 10 animals each. Dilutions of rabies virus containing 100, 1000, 10,000 and 100,000 MICLD50 (lethal dose 50% for mice inoculated by the intracerebral route) were administrated in the pectoral muscle. The presence of rabies virus was detected in brain and salivary glands by fluorescent antibody, mouse inoculation and RT-PCR. The observed mortality for each virus dose was 0, 20, 20 and 60% respectively. Serum neutralizing antibodies were tested for by the rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test, and antibody titres greater than 0.5 IU/ml were found in 53% of bats 30 days after virus inoculation. Resistance to infection was seen in bats that developed low or no detectable antibody response as well as in bats with high titres. Among the 10 bats that died of rabies, eight showed signs of paralytic rabies and two bats showed no clinical signs.

The Eyam plague revisited: did the village isolation change transmission from fleas to pulmonary?

Back in the 17th century the Derbyshire village of Eyam fell victim to the Black Death, which is thought to have arrived from London in some old clothes brought by a travelling tailor. The village population was 350 at the commencement of plague, of which only 83 survived. Led by the church leaders, the village community realized that the whole surrounding region was at risk from the epidemic, and therefore decided to seal themselves off from the other surrounding villages. In the first 275 days of the outbreak, transmission was predominantly from infected fleas to susceptible humans. From then onward, mortality sharply increased, which indicates a changing in transmission pattern. We hypothesize that the confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission among humans. This would be more consistent with pulmonary plague, a deadlier form of the disease. In order to test the above hypothesis we designed a mathematical model for plague dynamics, incorporating both the indirect (fleas-rats-humans) and direct (human-to-human) transmissions of the infection. Our results show remarkable agreement between data and the model, lending support to our hypotheses. The Eyam plague episode is celebrated as a remarkable act of collective self-sacrifice. However, to the best of our knowledge, there were no evidence before that the confinement actually increased the burden payed by the commoners. In the light of our results, it can be said that the hypothesis that confinement facilitated the spread of the infection by increasing the contact rate through direct transmission is plausible.

Brain mappings of the arithmetic processing in children and adults

Despite the increasing number of experimental mapping showing that human arithmetic cognition is supported by widely spread neural circuits; the theoretical reasoning about these data remains mostly metaphorical and guided by a connectionist approach. Although neurons at distinct areas in the brain are assumed to take charge of different duties in the solution of the experimental task, the results are always discussed by hypothesizing some association between the different areas without questioning any difference of behavior at the level of the neurons at each of these areas. Here, the brain is assumed as Distributed Intelligent Processing System (DIPS) formed by collections of loosely interacting specialized agents (neurons), each agent specializing, for example, in data collection (sensors), problem solving (associative neurons), data communication (interneuronal systems) and in acting upon the surrounding environment (motorneurons). A new technique for EEG brain mapping is proposed and used to study arithmetic cognition in elementary school aged children and adults. Factor analysis showed three distinct patterns of neuronal recruitment for arithmetic calculations in all experimental groups which varied according to the type of calculation, age and sex.

Training in Health Informatics in Brazil

Technology is transforming not only the practice of healthcare but also professional training and educational models. Developing countries, such as Brazil, are increasingly suffering from a severe shortage of health informatics specialists. Training of professionals in this field is expensive, and there is a limited supply of high-quality teaching resources available. We envision that training in health informatics can be better achieved if cultural and technological barriers are anticipated and the training program is prepared accordingly. We describe our four-year experience of a Brazil/USA training program and discuss lessons learned during its implementation. Eleven onsite courses, one seminar, and two conferences were developed under this unique initiative, which made possible the collaboration among different countries and distinguished leaders in the field of medical informatics. We also described a few identified initiatives to implement health informatics in the curriculum.

The vulnerability of Brazilian female prisoners to HIV infection

The purpose of the present study was to determine the vulnerability of women in prison to HIV infection. The study was carried out from August to October 2000 in a São Paulo State Penitentiary, where 299 female prisoners were serving time. We interviewed and obtained a blood sample from 290 females who agreed to enter the study. Sera were tested for the presence of antibodies to HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and syphilis and the odds ratio (OR) was calculated for variables related to HIV positivity on the basis of a questionnaire. The overall prevalence data were: 13.9% for HIV (37 of 267), 22.8% for syphilis (66 of 290), and 16.2% for HCV (47 of 290). Sexual partnership variables were significantly related to HIV infection. These included HIV-positive partners (OR = 7.36, P = 0.0001), casual partners (OR = 8.96, P = 0.009), injectable drug user partners (OR = 4.7, P = 0.0001), and history of sexually transmitted disease (OR = 2.07, P = 0.05). In addition, a relationship was detected between HIV infection and drug use (OR = 2.48, P = 0.04) and injectable drug use (OR = 4.2, P = 0.002). Even women with only one partner presented a significant OR for HIV infection (OR = 2.57, P = 0.009), reflecting their vulnerability due to their trust in their partner, who did not use a condom. Although the use of injectable substances is associated with HIV infection, our results point to sexual behavior as the most important component of HIV transmission in the female prisoner population.

Malaria vaccines: lessons from field trials

Malaria vaccine candidates have already been tested and new trials are being carried out. We present a brief description of specific issues of validity that are relevant when assessing vaccine efficacy in the field and illustrate how the application of these principles might improve our interpretation of the data being gathered in actual malaria vaccine field trials. Our discussion assumes that vaccine evaluation shares the same general principles of validity with epidemiologic causal inference, i.e., the process of drawing inferences from epidemiologic data aiming at the identification of causes of diseases. Judicious exercise of these principles indicates that, for meaningful interpretation, measures of vaccine efficacy require definitions based upon arguments conditional on the amount of exposure to infection, and specification of the initial and final states in which one believes the effect of interest takes place.

Can the human brain do quantum computing?

The electrical membrane properties have been the key issues in the understanding of the cerebral physiology for more than almost two centuries. But, molecular neurobiology has now discovered that biochemical transactions play an important role in neuronal computations. Quantum computing (QC) is becoming a reality both from the theoretical point of view as well as from practical applications. Quantum mechanics is the most accurate description at atomic level and it lies behind all chemistry that provides the basis for biology ... maybe the magic of entanglement is also crucial for life. The purpose of the present paper is to discuss the dendrite spine as a quantum computing device, taking into account what is known about the physiology of the glutamate receptors and the cascade of biochemical transactions triggered by the glutamate binding to these receptors.

Vaccination against rubella: analysis of the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact patterns

In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very specific vaccination program in a previously nonvaccinated population where rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that can be estimated from the force of infection in a steady state prior to the vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland, and the United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted and implemented by the government of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.

Malnutrition and susceptibility to enteroparasites: reinfection rates after mass chemotherapy

The evidence that relates malnutrition to enteroparasite infections arises from studies that demonstrate the improvement of nutritional indicators after antiparasitism treatment. However, the role of malnutrition as an aggravating factor to the susceptibility to enteroparasite infections is still not fully understood. We investigated the correlation between malnutrition and enteroparasite infection after mass chemotherapy, in a poor city of São Paulo State, Brazil. The sample comprised 759 children between 1 and 10 years of age of whom 585 were followed up for a period of 1 year and periodically assessed for reinfection with enteroparasites. One year of follow-up after mass chemotherapy demonstrated that 38 of the undernourished children were reinfected with enteroparasites, as compared with 25 of the eutrophic children (P = 0.033). The survival multivariate analysis demonstrated that, after controlling for the potential confounding variables, maternal literacy and per capita income rate, malnutrition was associated with susceptibility to reinfection (P = 0.13). We demonstrate that, although maternal literacy and per capita income rate are indeed confounding variables, malnutrition contributes to an increase in the risk of enteroparasite infections.

Varicella transmission in two samples of children with different social behaviour in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

In order to establish the differences in transmission pattern of varicella-zoster virus (VZV), a comparative seroepidemiological study was carried out in two different children samples. Children aged 1-11 years, were randomly selected from state schools of São Paulo city, Brazil. Individuals aged 1-15 years were sampled by cluster from Caieiras city. Children aged 3 years or under from Caieiras were not attending school, while those from São Paulo were attending all-day nurseries or kindergarten. The presence of antibodies to VZV was analysed by ELISA technique. The force of infection and contact rate were determined by mathematical techniques. The average age of first infection was 2.87 +/- 0.14 years and 4.07 +/- 0.47 years for Sao Paulo and Caieiras, respectively. The average force of infection estimated was 0.29 year(-1) for São Paulo and was 0.26 year(-1) for Caieiras. The proportion of seropositivity and the force of infection were higher in São Paulo school children up to 3 years of age compared with Caieiras children, where the social contact starts later. In conclusion, social changes affecting contact among children may influence varicella epidemiology.

A mixed ectoparasite--microparasite model for bat-transmitted rabies

This paper considers the transmission of rabies to domestic livestock by vampire bats. Vampire bats act as ectoparasites on cattle both by ingesting a small amount of blood every night and by prolonging bleeding by the action of anticoagulant substances in their saliva. In addition to this parasitic action bats may also transmit rabies, inflicting important losses on affected herds by the inevitable mortality due to the infection. We modeled this complex interaction and we also demonstrate that bat control measures are more effective in reducing rabies prevalence and mortality by rabies than cattle vaccination.

Modelling the natural history of HIV infection in individuals and its epidemiological implications

The variation of viraemia in the natural course of HIV infection is expected to have major influence on the probability of transmission and, consequently, on the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. In this paper we propose a model which takes into account the time evolution of HIV viraemia (measured as HIV-RNA copies per ml of blood) in an infected individual and its impact on the threshold for the establishment of an endemic level, and mainly on the relative contribution of each of the clinical phases of the infection to the total transmission of HIV per infected individual. We consider that an infected individual passes through three phases of viraemia. The first phase, which lasts for 6-7 weeks, is characterized by very high viraemia. In the second phase, which lasts about 10 years, the viraemia is much lower, increasing again in the last phase, which lasts up to two years, and ends in full-blown AIDS. We show that the relative contribution of each phase to the total transmission of HIV is very sensitive to the model we assume for the dependence of the transmissibility of HIV on the viral load. For instance, if we assume that transmissibility is proportional to the decimal logarithm of viraemia, then the second phase predominates always. Due to the epidemiological importance of this fact, it is clear that further improvement on virological research to better understand the dependence of HIV transmissibility on the viral concentration in biological fluids is necessary.

Optimal age for vaccination against measles in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, taking into account the mother's serostatus

In order to investigate if the changing levels of measles antibody in women resulting from extensive vaccination programs influence the susceptibility of children, we measured the seroprevalence of measles virus antibody of children in the first year of life and of their mothers. We compared maternal antibody decay of two groups of children: those whose mothers were 25 years old or more (mothers born in the pre-vaccination era), and less than 25 years old (mothers born in the vaccination era). Therefore, the 25-year-age cut-off was chosen to distinguish between vaccinated and non-vaccinated mothers. We also compared the immunogenicity of measles vaccine in children from 6 to 12 months of age, in these two groups and also according to their mother's serostatus. The optimal age of vaccination for a routine program was estimated by means of mathematical models. This study was carried out in a sample of 1216 mothers and their respective children. Our results indicate that the optimal age for vaccination of the whole sample was 15 months, 17 months for children born from older mothers, 14 months for children born from younger mothers, 17 months for children born from seropositive mothers and 12 months for children born from seronegative mothers. Therefore, a change to an earlier age of routine vaccination is not justified by our results.

The risk of yellow fever in a dengue-infested area

Yellow fever and dengue are viral infections that in urban centres are transmitted by the same arthropod vector, a mosquito of the genus Aedes. In order to estimate the risk of an epidemic of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area we calculated the threshold in the basic reproduction number, R0, of dengue, above which any single sylvatic yellow fever-infected individual will trigger an urban yellow fever epidemic. Specifically, we analysed the relationship between the extrinsic incubation period and the duration of viraemia, from which it is possible to define the R0 for dengue that would also suggest an outbreak potential for yellow fever. We also calculated the critical proportion of people to vaccinate against yellow fever in order to prevent an epidemic in a dengue-endemic area. The theory proposed is illustrated by the case of São Paulo State in southern Brazil, where dengue is endemic and the risk of urban yellow fever is already imminent.

Cytomegalovirus seroepidemiology in an urban community of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: After the era of rubella vaccine, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of the most frequently causes of mental retardation and congenital deafness. Seroepidemiological studies are necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease. The purpose of the study was to quantify the transmission rate of CMV disease in a community in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Using ELISA test (IgG), a retrospective serological survey looking for CMV antibodies was performed in an non-immunized community. Frozen sera from 443 individuals, randomly selected by cluster sampling technique in the town of Caieiras, São Paulo, were collected from November 1990 to January 1991. Seroprevalence was stratified by age (0-40 years). Mathematical techniques were applied to determine the age-dependent decay function of maternal antibodies during the first year of life, the age-dependent seroprevalence function and the force of infection for CMV in this community. RESULTS: It was observed a descending phase of seropositivity in the first 9 months, but changes in antibody titration were observed between 8 months old and one year of age. The average age of the first infection was 5.02 months of age and 19.84 years, when the age-dependent seroprevalence and the force of infection were analyzed between 10 months of age and 10 years of age and from 10 to 40 years old, respectively. CONCLUSION: CMV infection is highly prevalent among the population studied and infection occurs in the first year of life. This study shows that most women at reproductive age are vulnerable to the first infection, increasing the risk for congenital infection.

Neutralizing antirabies antibodies in urban terrestrial wildlife in Brazil

The prevalence of rabies neutralizing antibodies (NA) in sera of wild animals from São Paulo City (Brazil) was investigated using the Rapid Fluorescent Focus Inhibition Test between 1994 and 1997. Sera from 547 specimens were examined. Marsupials represented 45% of the sample and primates 37%; carnivores, rodents, deer and edentates represented 6, 6, 3 and 2%, respectively. The overall prevalence of NA was 14%. The prevalence of NA was 18% in primates; whereas in marsupials, carnivores, edentates and rodents it was 13, 9, 8 and 6%, respectively. The stratification according to sex, age, and site of capture of the marsupials and primates showed a small predominance in males versus females and a large predominance of adults versus juveniles. The same relationship was seen in specimens captured near human habitations versus specimens captured in their own habitat. It is evident that there is circulation of rabies virus in wild animals, which are not recommended as pets since they represent a potential risk of exposure to rabies virus for both humans and domestic animals.

Correlation between HIV and HCV in Brazilian prisoners: evidence for parenteral transmission inside prison

OBJECTIVE

It is an accepted fact that confinement conditions increase the risk of some infections related to sexual and/or injecting drugs practices. Mathematical techniques were applied to estimate time-dependent incidence densities of HIV infection among inmates.

METHODS

A total of 631 prisoners from a Brazilian prison with 4,900 inmates at that time were interviewed and their blood drawn. Risky behavior for HIV infection was analyzed, and serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis were performed, intended as surrogates for parenteral and sexual HIV transmission, respectively. Mathematical techniques were used to estimate the incidence density ratio, as related to the time of imprisonment.

RESULTS

Prevalence were: HIV - 16%; HCV - 34%; and syphilis - 18%. The main risk behaviors related to HIV infection were HCV prevalence (OR=10.49) and the acknowledged use of injecting drugs (OR=3.36). Incidence density ratio derivation showed that the risk of acquiring HIV infection increases with the time of imprisonment, peaking around three years after incarceration.

CONCLUSIONS

The correlation between HIV and HCV seroprevalence and the results of the mathematical analysis suggest that HIV transmission in this population is predominantly due to parenteral exposure by injecting drug, and that it increases with time of imprisonment.

Three year seroepidemiological study of varicella-zoster virus in São Paulo, Brazil

A serosurvey of varicella has been carried out in children attending the public school network of São Paulo city, Brazil, from 1992 to 1994. This study was performed in order to establish the age related prevalence of antibodies against varicella-zoster virus (VZV) and its age specific transmission dynamics pattern in these children. Among 2500 schools in the city of São Paulo public network, 304 were randomly selected; 7 children of a given age (ranging from 1 to 15 years) were randomly selected in each school, and blood samples were obtained by fingerprick into filter paper. Blood eluates were analyzed for the presence of antibodies to VZV by ELISA. Proportion of seropositivity were calculated for each age group. Samples consisted of 1768 individuals in 1992, 1758 in 1993, and 1817 in 1994, resulting in 5343 eluates. A high proportion of seropositive children from 1 to 3 years of age was observed, ascending until 10 years of age and reaching a plateau around 90% afterwards. VZV transmission in this community was similar along the three years of the study. In children attending public schools in the city of São Paulo, contact with VZV occurs in early childhood. If immunization against VZV is considered it should be introduced as soon as possible.

Rabies seroprevalence of street dogs from São Paulo City, Brazil

A sample of 602 street dogs captured by the São Paulo zoonosis-control municipal service was analyzed for the presence of serum antibodies against the rabies virus and compared to a control sample of 37 dogs from the kennel of the police of São Paulo. Data were stratified into 4 age intervals and the age from the street-dog sample was estimated by general aspects and dental observation according to standard techniques. We assumed that seropositivity was due to previous vaccination (no sub-clinical infection). From the prevalence data, we estimated the age-dependent incidence-density rate of vaccination by a simple mathematical model, which also allowed the estimation of the period of antibody protection given by the supposed vaccination. Crude seroprevalence in the street-dog sample was 16.5% and in the sample from the police-kennel dogs was 80%. The average age of first vaccination calculated for the street-dog sample was 5 years of age (if we assumed an average period of vaccine protection of 3 years) - but 5 months of age for the police-kennel sample.

Decision trees and fuzzy logic: a comparison of models for the selection of measles vaccination strategies in Brazil

In 1997, health authorities of the state of São Paulo, Brazil designed a vaccination campaign against measles based on a decision model that utilized fuzzy logic. The chosen mass vaccination strategy was implemented and changed the natural course of the epidemic in that state. We have built a model using a decision tree and compare it to the fuzzy logic model. Using essentially the same set of assumptions about this problem, we contrast the two approaches. The models identify the same strategy as being the best one, but exhibit differences in the ranking of the remaining strategies.

Relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping and genital neoplasia in HIV-positive patients of Santos City, São Paulo, Brazil

Among HIV-positive women, infection with multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) types is known to be more frequent and persistent, as well as a greater prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. This study aims to characterize, for the first time in Brazil, HPV presence and types among HIV-positive women of a high-risk population for genital intraepithelial neoplasia (GIN) development. A non-anonymous, voluntary, cross-sectional epidemiological survey was conducted, from June 1996 to April 1997, among 141 HIV-positive women followed at the Center of Reference in AIDS (CRAIDS). They were submitted to gynaecological examination, cytological screening and biopsies whenever necessary, for GIN and HPV DNA detection through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique. Positive HPV DNA were found in 80.8% patients. Two or more HPV types were detected in 45% of the samples. The most frequent HPV types detected were 16, 18 (30.5%); 61, 53 (24.4%), and non-identified types (18.7%). According to the oncogenic potential, 34.8% were considered of high-risk types. Among these HIV-positive patients, a great variety of HPV types, including high-risk types, was found in anogenital environment, as well as among young women, a great prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. Thus, it should strengthen the need for a periodical careful gynaecological examination among those women.

Hepatitis A incidence rate estimates from a pilot seroprevalence survey in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

BACKGROUND

To assess the impact of water sanitation and sewage disposal, part of a major environmental control programme in Rio de Janeiro, we carried out sero-prevalence studies for Hepatitis A virus (HAV) in three micro-regions in Rio de Janeiro. Each region varied with regard to level of sanitation. We are interested in assessing the discriminating power of age-specific prevalence curves for HAV as a proxy for improvement in sanitation. These curves will serve as baseline information to future planned surveys as the sanitation programme progresses.

METHODS

Incidence rate curves from prevalence data are estimated parametrically via a Weibull-like survival function, and non-parametrically via maximum likelihood and monotonic splines. Sera collected from children and adults in the three areas are used to detect antibodies against HAV through ELISA.

RESULTS

We compare baseline incidence curves at the three sites estimated by the three methods. We observe a strong negative correlation between level of sanitation and incidence rates for HAV infection. Incidence estimates yielded by the parametric and non-parametric approaches tend to agree at early ages in the microregion showing the best level of sanitation and to increasingly disagree in the other two.

CONCLUSION

Our results support the choice of HAV as a sentinel disease that is associated with level of sanitation. We also introduce monotonic splines as a novel non-parametric approach to estimate incidence from prevalence data. This approach outperforms current estimating procedures.

A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

INTRODUCTION

The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population.

METHODS

Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided.

RESULTS

The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners.

CONCLUSION

It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high) rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more) virulent strain prevails.

Detection of antibodies against hepatitis A virus in eluates of blood spotted on filter-paper: a pilot study in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The validity of blood spotted on to filter-paper (BSOFP) eluates for the detection of antibodies against hepatitis A virus (HAV) was investigated in 718 individuals (children and adults) during a field study in a small area in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Serum samples were considered the 'gold standard'. BSOFP eluates were analyzed by 2 different techniques: microplate competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) of the whole study group and microparticle enzyme immune assay (MEIA) of a subsample of 59 individuals. For BSOFP eluates by ELISA, sensitivity and specificity were 89.6% (95% CI: 84.7-93.1) and 97.5% (95% CI: 95.6-98.7), respectively. For a seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies of 32%, the positive predictive value was 94.5% (95% CI: 90.3-97.0) and the negative predictive value was 95.2% (95% CI: 92.8-96.8). The test efficiency was 95.0% (95% CI: 93.1-96.4). Similar results were found for BSOFP eluates by MEIA. Agreement between the 2 techniques used for BSOFP (ELISA and MEIA) was also high (kappa = 0.93). These results encourage the more widespread application of BSOFP as a means of surveillance for large-scale epidemiological studies for hepatitis A.

Fuzzy logic and measles vaccination: designing a control strategy

BACKGROUND

The State of São Paulo, the most populous in Brazil, was virtually free of measles from 1987 until the end of 1996 when the number of cases started to rise. It reached alarming numbers in the middle of 1997 and local health authorities decided to implement a mass vaccination campaign.

METHODS

Fuzzy Decision Making techniques are applied to the design of the vaccination campaign.

RESULTS

The mass vaccination strategy chosen changed the natural course of the epidemic. It had a significant impact on the epidemic in the metropolitan area of São Paulo city, but a second epidemic in the State's interior forced the public health authorities to implement a second mass vaccination campaign 2 months after the first.

CONCLUSIONS

Fuzzy Logic techniques are a powerful tool for the design of control strategies against epidemics of infectious diseases.

Seroprevalence of HIV, HCV and syphilis in Brazilian prisoners: preponderance of parenteral transmission

Between November 1993 and April 1994, our physicians' team interviewed and took blood samples of 631 prisoners randomly drawn from the largest prison of South America, which counted about 4700 inmates at that time. The interview consisted of questions related to risk behaviour for HIV infection, and the subjects were asked to provide blood for serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis. Our main purpose was to investigate the relationship between HCV and injecting drug use as related to HIV seropositivity. Participation in the study was voluntary and confidentiality was guaranteed. Overall prevalences found were as follows: HIV: 16% (95% confidence interval (CI): 13-19%); HCV: 34% (95% CI: 30-38%), and syphilis: 18% (95% CI: 15-21%). Acknowledged use of ever injecting drug was 22% and no other parenteral risk was reported. Our results, as compared with other studies in the same prison, suggest that HIV prevalence has been stable in recent years, and that the major risk factor for HIV infection in this population is parenteral exposure by injecting drug use.