Computer-Aided Diagnosis for Leaving Colorectal Polyps In Situ : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) allows prediction of polyp histology during colonoscopy, which may reduce unnecessary removal of nonneoplastic polyps. However, the potential benefits and harms of CADx are still unclear.

PURPOSE

To quantify the benefit and harm of using CADx in colonoscopy for the optical diagnosis of small (≤5-mm) rectosigmoid polyps.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, and Scopus were searched for articles published before 22 December 2023.

STUDY SELECTION

Histologically verified diagnostic accuracy studies that evaluated the real-time performance of physicians in predicting neoplastic change of small rectosigmoid polyps without or with CADx assistance during colonoscopy.

DATA EXTRACTION

The clinical benefit and harm were estimated on the basis of accuracy values of the endoscopist before and after CADx assistance. The certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework. The outcome measure for benefit was the proportion of polyps predicted to be nonneoplastic that would avoid removal with the use of CADx. The outcome measure for harm was the proportion of neoplastic polyps that would be not resected and left in situ due to an incorrect diagnosis with the use of CADx. Histology served as the reference standard for both outcomes.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Ten studies, including 3620 patients with 4103 small rectosigmoid polyps, were analyzed. The studies that assessed the performance of CADx alone (9 studies; 3237 polyps) showed a sensitivity of 87.3% (95% CI, 79.2% to 92.5%) and specificity of 88.9% (CI, 81.7% to 93.5%) in predicting neoplastic change. In the studies that compared histology prediction performance before versus after CADx assistance (4 studies; 2503 polyps), there was no difference in the proportion of polyps predicted to be nonneoplastic that would avoid removal (55.4% vs. 58.4%; risk ratio [RR], 1.06 [CI, 0.96 to 1.17]; moderate-certainty evidence) or in the proportion of neoplastic polyps that would be erroneously left in situ (8.2% vs. 7.5%; RR, 0.95 [CI, 0.69 to 1.33]; moderate-certainty evidence).

LIMITATION

The application of optical diagnosis was only simulated, potentially altering the decision-making process of the operator.

CONCLUSION

Computer-aided diagnosis provided no incremental benefit or harm in the management of small rectosigmoid polyps during colonoscopy.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

European Commission. (PROSPERO: CRD42023402197).

A brief step-by-step guide on conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic model studies

Prognostic models provide an avenue to predict the risk of individual patients and support shared-decision making. Many prognostic models are published annually, and systematic reviews provide an avenue to collate the existing evidence behind prognostic models to determine whether a model demonstrates adequate predictive performance and is ready for real-world use. This article provides a brief step-by-step guide on how to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic model studies and how these reviews differ from systematic reviews of therapy and diagnosis.

GRADE concept paper 8: judging the certainty of discrimination performance estimates of prognostic models in a body of validation studies

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models incorporate multiple prognostic factors to estimate the likelihood of future events for individual patients based on their prognostic factor values. Evaluating these models crucially involves conducting studies to assess their predictive performance, like discrimination. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of these validation studies play an essential role in selecting models for clinical practice.

METHODS

In this paper, we outline 3 thresholds to determine the target for certainty rating in the discrimination of prognostic models, as observed across a body of validation studies.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

We propose 3 thresholds when rating the certainty of evidence about a prognostic model's discrimination. The first threshold amounts to rating certainty in the model's ability to classify better than random chance. The other 2 approaches involve setting thresholds informed by other mechanisms for classification: clinician intuition or an alternative prognostic model developed for the same disease area and outcome. The choice of threshold will vary based on the context. Instead of relying on arbitrary discrimination cut-offs, our approach positions the observed discrimination within an informed spectrum, potentially aiding decisions about a prognostic model's practical utility.

Clinical presentation and diagnosis of adult-onset leukoencephalopathy with axonal spheroids and pigmented glia: a literature analysis of case studies

Introduction

Because adult-onset leukoencephalopathy with axonal spheroids and pigmented glia (ALSP) is a rare, rapidly progressive, debilitating, and ultimately fatal neurodegenerative disease, a rapid and accurate diagnosis is critical. This analysis examined the frequency of initial misdiagnosis of ALSP via comprehensive review of peer-reviewed published cases.

Methods

Data were extracted from a MEDLINE search via PubMed (January 1, 1980, through March 22, 2022) from eligible published case reports/series for patients with an ALSP diagnosis that had been confirmed by testing for the colony-stimulating factor-1 receptor gene (CSF1R) mutation. Patient demographics, clinical symptoms, brain imaging, and initial diagnosis data were summarized descriptively. Categorical data for patient demographics, symptoms, and brain imaging were stratified by initial diagnosis category to test for differences in initial diagnosis based on each variable.

Results

Data were extracted from a cohort of 291 patients with ALSP from 93 published case reports and case series. Mean (standard deviation) age of symptom onset was 43.2 (11.6) years. A family history of ALSP was observed in 59.1% of patients. Cognitive impairment (47.1%) and behavioral and psychiatric abnormalities (26.8%) were the most frequently reported initial symptoms. Of 291 total cases, an accurate initial diagnosis of ALSP was made in 72 cases (24.7%) and the most frequent initial misdiagnosis categories were frontotemporal dementia (28 [9.6%]) and multiple sclerosis (21 [7.2%]). Of the 219 cases (75.3%) that were initially mis- or undiagnosed, 206 cases (94.1%) were later confirmed as ALSP by immunohistology, imaging, and/or genetic testing; for the remaining 13 cases, no final diagnosis was reported. Initial diagnosis category varied based on age, family history, geographic region, mode of inheritance, and presenting symptoms of pyramidal or extrapyramidal motor dysfunction, behavioral and psychiatric abnormalities, cognitive impairment, and speech difficulty. Brain imaging abnormalities were common, and initial diagnosis category was significantly associated with white matter hyperintensities, white matter calcifications, and ventricular enlargement.

Discussion

In this literature analysis, ALSP was frequently misdiagnosed. Improving awareness of this condition and distinguishing it from other conditions with overlapping presenting symptoms is important for timely management of a rapidly progressive disease such as ALSP.

Use of induction therapy post-heart transplantation: Clinical practice recommendations based on systematic review and network meta-analysis of evidence

BACKGROUND

The use of induction therapy (IT) agents in the early post-heart transplant period remains controversial. The following recommendations aim to provide guidance on the use of IT agents, including Basiliximab and Thymoglobulin, as part of routine care in heart transplantation (HTx).

METHODS

We recruited an international, multidisciplinary panel of 15 stakeholders, including patient partners, transplant cardiologists and surgeons, nurse practitioners, pharmacists, and methodologists. We commissioned a systematic review on benefits and harms of IT on patient-important outcomes, and another on patients' values and preferences to inform our recommendations. We used the GRADE framework to summarize our findings, rate certainty in the evidence, and develop recommendations. The panel considered the balance between benefits and harms, certainty in the evidence, and patient's values and preferences, to make recommendations for or against the routine post-operative use of Thymoglobulin or Basiliximab.

RESULTS

The panel made recommendations on three major clinical problems in HTx: (1) We suggest against the routine post-operative use of Basiliximab compared to no IT, (2) we suggest against the routine use of Thymoglobulin compared to no IT, and (3) for those patients for whom IT is deemed desirable, we suggest for the use of Thymoglobulin as compared to Basiliximab.

CONCLUSION

This report highlights gaps in current knowledge and provides directions for clinical research in the future to better understand the clinical utility of IT agents in the early post heart transplant period, leading to improved management and care.

Cardiac allograft vasculopathy and survival in pediatric heart transplant recipients transitioned to adult care

BACKGROUND

Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is an important cause of mortality after pediatric heart transplantation (HT) but there is a paucity of data regarding its incidence and impact on survival in pediatric recipients transitioned to adult care.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of consecutive pediatric HT patients from 1989 to 2017 at the Hospital for Sick Children who transitioned to adult care at ≥18 years at Toronto General Hospital. We evaluated the incidence of International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation CAV grade ≥1 using competing risk models. We assessed the association between all-cause mortality and CAV using Cox proportional hazards and used Kaplan Meier methods to evaluate all-cause mortality stratified by CAV and transplant era (1989-2001, 2002-2017).

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients were transitioned to adult care by January 2022, of which 53 underwent repeat coronary angiography as adults. CAV was newly diagnosed in 49% patients after transition to adult care. The overall incidence of CAV was 3.9 cases per 100 person-years. There was no difference in the adjusted incidence of CAV according to transplant era (subdistribution hazard ratios = 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-2.66). CAV was associated with a higher risk of death in the early era (hazard ratio (HR) 10.29, 95% CI 2.16-49.96), but not in the recent era (HR 1.61, 95% 0.35-7.47).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a role for continued CAV surveillance after the transition to adult care. The implications of diagnosing CAV after the transition to adult care require further study, particularly because the risk of death in pediatric HT recipients diagnosed with CAV in the more recent era may be attenuated compared to the earlier HT era.

Efficacy of antimicrobial and nutraceutical treatment for canine acute diarrhoea: A systematic review and meta-analysis for European Network for Optimization of Antimicrobial Therapy (ENOVAT) guidelines

Systemic antimicrobial treatments are commonly prescribed to dogs with acute diarrhoea, while nutraceuticals (prebiotics, probiotics, and synbiotics) are frequently administered as an alternative treatment. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the effectiveness of antimicrobials and nutraceutical preparations for treatment of canine acute diarrhoea (CAD). The results of this study will be used to create evidence-based treatment guidelines. PICOs (population, intervention, comparator, and outcome) were generated by a multidisciplinary expert panel taking into account opinions from stakeholders (general practitioners and dog owners). The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology was used to evaluate the certainty of the evidence. The systematic search yielded six randomised controlled trials (RCT) for antimicrobial treatment and six RCTs for nutraceutical treatment meeting the eligibility criteria. Categories of disease severity (mild, moderate, and severe) were created based on the presence of systemic signs and response to fluid therapy. Outcomes included duration of diarrhoea, duration of hospitalization, progression of disease, mortality, and adverse effects. High certainty evidence showed that antimicrobial treatment did not have a clinically relevant effect on any outcome in dogs with mild or moderate disease. Certainty of evidence was low for dogs with severe disease. Nutraceutical products did not show a clinically significant effect in shortening the duration of diarrhoea (based on very low to moderate certainty evidence). No adverse effects were reported in any of the studies.

Prognostic accuracy of qSOFA score, SIRS criteria, and EWSs for in-hospital mortality among adult patients presenting with suspected infection to the emergency department (PASSEM) Multicenter prospective external validation cohort study protocol

BACKGROUND

Early identification of a patient with infection who may develop sepsis is of utmost importance. Unfortunately, this remains elusive because no single clinical measure or test can reflect complex pathophysiological changes in patients with sepsis. However, multiple clinical and laboratory parameters indicate impending sepsis and organ dysfunction. Screening tools using these parameters can help identify the condition, such as SIRS, quick SOFA (qSOFA), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), or Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). We aim to externally validate qSOFA, SIRS, and NEWS/NEWS2/MEWS for in-hospital mortality among adult patients with suspected infection who presenting to the emergency department.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PASSEM study is an international prospective external validation cohort study. For 9 months, each participating center will recruit consecutive adult patients who visited the emergency departments with suspected infection and are planned for hospitalization. We will collect patients' demographics, vital signs measured in the triage, initial white blood cell count, and variables required to calculate Charlson Comorbidities Index; and follow patients for 90 days since their inclusion in the study. The primary outcome will be 30-days in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcome will be intensive care unit (ICU) admission, prolonged stay in the ICU (i.e., ≥72 hours), and 30- as well as 90-days all-cause mortality. The study started in December 2021 and planned to enroll 2851 patients to reach 200 in-hospital death. The sample size is adaptive and will be adjusted based on prespecified consecutive interim analyses.

DISCUSSION

PASSEM study will be the first international multicenter prospective cohort study that designated to externally validate qSOFA score, SIRS criteria, and EWSs for in-hospital mortality among adult patients with suspected infection presenting to the ED in the Middle East region.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05172479).

Natural history of degenerative cervical myelopathy: a meta-analysis and neurologic deterioration survival curve synthesis

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Cervical spine surgery is rapidly increasing, and our knowledge of the natural history of degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM) is limited.

PURPOSE

To synthesize accurate time-based estimates of meaningful neurologic decline in patients with DCM managed conservatively and to provide formulae to help communicate survivorship estimates to patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted using Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines. A librarian-assisted search strategy using multiple databases with broad search terms and validated filter functions was used. All articles were reviewed in duplicate.

RESULTS

A total of 9570 studies were captured in the initial search, which after deletion of duplicates and manual review of abstracts and full texts revealed 6 studies for analyses. All studies were prospective cohorts or randomized controlled trials. The pooled survival estimates for neurologic stability (95% CrI) for mild DCM patients are: 91% (83%-97%) at one year; 85% (72%-94%) at 2 years; 84% (70%-94%) at 3 years; 75% (54%-90%) at 5 years; 66% (40%-86%) at 15 years; and 65% (39%-86%) at 20 years. The pooled survival estimates for neurologic stability (95% CrI) for moderate/severe DCM patients are: 83% (76%-89%) at 1 year; 72% (62%-81%) at 2 years; 71% (60%-80%) at 3 years; 55% (41%-68%) at 5 years; 44% (27%-59%) at 15 years; and 43% (25%-58%) at 20 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first quantitative synthesis of the totality of published data on DCM natural history. Our review confirms a slow decline in neurologic function. We developed formulae which can be easily used by surgeons to communicate to patients their risk of neurologic deterioration. These formulae can be used to facilitate the shared decision-making process.

The design of studies testing the effectiveness of risk-guided care has many challenges: a scoping review addressing key considerations

OBJECTIVES

Studies evaluating the effectiveness of care based on patients' risk of adverse outcomes (risk-guided care) use a variety of study designs. In this scoping review, using examples, we review characteristics of relevant studies and present key design features to optimize the trustworthiness of results.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched five online databases for studies evaluating the effect of risk-guided care among adults on clinical outcomes, process, or cost. Pairs of reviewers independently performed screening and data abstraction. We descriptively summarized the study design and characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 14,561 hits, we identified 116 eligible studies. Study designs included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), post hoc analysis of RCTs, and retrospective or prospective cohort studies. Challenges and sources of bias in the design included limited performance of predictive models, contamination, inadequacy to address the credibility of subgroup effects, absence of differences in care across risk strata, reporting only process measures as opposed to clinical outcomes, and failure to report benefits and harms.

CONCLUSION

To assess the benefit of risk-guided care, RCTs provide the most trustworthy evidence. Observational studies offer an alternative but are hampered by confounding and other limitations. Reaching valid conclusions when testing risk-guided care requires addressing the challenges identified in our review.

Probiotics, Prebiotics, Lactoferrin, and Combination Products for Prevention of Mortality and Morbidity in Preterm Infants: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Importance

Modulation of intestinal microbiome by administering probiotics, prebiotics, or both may prevent morbidity and mortality in premature infants.

Objective

To assess the comparative effectiveness of alternative prophylactic strategies through a network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized clinical trials.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, CINAHL, Scopus, Cochrane CENTRAL, and Google Scholar from inception until May 10, 2023.

Study Selection

Eligible trials tested probiotics, prebiotics, lactoferrin, and combination products for prevention of morbidity or mortality in preterm infants.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

A frequentist random-effects model was used for the NMA, and the certainty of evidence and inferences regarding relative effectiveness were assessed using the GRADE approach.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality, severe necrotizing enterocolitis, culture-proven sepsis, feeding intolerance, time to reach full enteral feeding, and duration of hospitalization.

Results

A total of 106 trials involving 25 840 preterm infants were included. Only multiple-strain probiotics were associated with reduced all-cause mortality compared with placebo (risk ratio [RR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.86; risk difference [RD], -1.7%; 95% CI, -2.4% to -0.8%). Multiple-strain probiotics alone (vs placebo: RR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.50; RD, -3.7%; 95% CI, -4.1% to -2.9%) or in combination with oligosaccharides (vs placebo: RR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.37; RD, -5.1%; 95% CI, -5.6% to -3.7%) were among the most effective interventions reducing severe necrotizing enterocolitis. Single-strain probiotics in combination with lactoferrin (vs placebo RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.78; RD, -10.7%; 95% CI, -13.7% to -3.5%) were the most effective intervention for reducing sepsis. Multiple-strain probiotics alone (RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.80; RD, -10.0%; 95% CI, -13.9% to -5.1%) or in combination with oligosaccharides (RR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.67; RD, -14.1%; 95% CI, -18.3% to -8.5%) and single-strain probiotics (RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.72; RD, -10.0%; 95% CI, -12.6% to -7.2%) proved of best effectiveness in reduction of feeding intolerance vs placebo. Single-strain probiotics (MD, -1.94 days; 95% CI, -2.96 to -0.92) and multistrain probiotics (MD, -2.03 days; 95% CI, -3.04 to -1.02) proved the most effective in reducing the time to reach full enteral feeding compared with placebo. Only single-strain and multistrain probiotics were associated with greater effectiveness compared with placebo in reducing duration of hospitalization (MD, -3.31 days; 95% CI, -5.05 to -1.58; and MD, -2.20 days; 95% CI, -4.08 to -0.31, respectively).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic review and NMA, moderate- to high-certainty evidence demonstrated an association between multistrain probiotics and reduction in all-cause mortality; these interventions were also associated with the best effectiveness for other key outcomes. Combination products, including single- and multiple-strain probiotics combined with prebiotics or lactoferrin, were associated with the largest reduction in morbidity and mortality.

The International Consortium on Primary Graft Dysfunction: Redefining Clinical Risk Factors in the Contemporary Era of Heart Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Primary Graft Dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality early after heart transplant (HT). The International Consortium on PGD is a multicenter collaboration dedicated to identifying the clinical risk factors for PGD in the contemporary era of HT. The objectives of the current report were to 1) assess the incidence of severe PGD in an international cohort, 2) evaluate the performance of the most validated PGD risk tool, the RADIAL score, in a contemporary cohort, and 3) redefine clinical risk factors for severe PGD in the current era of HT.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, observational study of consecutive adult HT recipients between 2010 and 2020 in 10 centers in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Patients with severe PGD were compared to those without severe PGD (comprising those with no, mild and moderate PGD). The RADIAL score was calculated for each transplant recipient. The discriminatory power of the RADIAL score was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and its calibration was assessed by plotting the percentage of PGD predicted versus observed. To identify clinical risk factors associated with severe PGD, we performed multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression modeling to account for among-center variability.

RESULTS

A total of 2,746 patients have been enrolled in the registry to date, including 2,015 (73.4%) from North America, and 731 (26.6%) from Europe. 215 participants (7.8%) met the criteria for severe PGD. There was an increase in the incidence of severe PGD over the study period (p-value for trend by difference sign test = 0.004). The Kaplan Meier estimate for 1-year survival was 75.7% [95%CI 69.4-80.9%] in patients with severe PGD as compared to 94.4% [95% CI 93.5-95.2%] in those without severe PGD (log-rank p-value <0.001). The RADIAL score performed poorly in our contemporary cohort and was not associated with severe PGD with an AUC of 0.53 (95%CI 0.48-0.58). In the multivariable regression model, acute preoperative dialysis (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.31 - 4.43), durable LVAD support (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.13 - 2.77), and total ischemic time (OR 1.20 for each additional hour, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.41) were associated with an increased risk of severe PGD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our consortium has identified an increasing incidence of PGD in the modern transplant era. We identified contemporary risk factors for this early post-transplant complication, which confers a high mortality risk. These results may enable the identification of patients at high risk for developing severe PGD in order to inform peri-transplant donor and recipient management practices.

Informed consent for endoscopic procedures: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Position Statement

All endoscopic procedures are invasive and carry risk. Accordingly, all endoscopists should involve the patient in the decision-making process about the most appropriate endoscopic procedure for that individual, in keeping with a patient's right to self-determination and autonomy. Recognition of this has led to detailed guidelines on informed consent for endoscopy in some countries, but in many no such guidance exists; this may lead to variations in care and exposure to risk of litigation. In this document, the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) sets out a series of statements that cover best practice in informed consent for endoscopy. These statements should be seen as a minimum standard of practice, but practitioners must be aware of and adhere to the law in their own country. 1:  Patients should give informed consent for all gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures for which they have capacity to do so. 2:  The healthcare professional seeking consent for an endoscopic procedure should ensure that the patient has the capacity to consent to that procedure. 3:  For patients who lack capacity, healthcare personnel should at all times try to engage with people close to the patient, such as family, friends, or caregivers, to achieve consensus on the appropriateness of performing the procedure. 4:  Where a patient lacks capacity to provide informed consent, the best interest decision should be clearly documented in the medical record. This should include information about the capacity assessment, reason(s) that the decision cannot be delayed for capacity recovery (or if recovery is not expected), who has been consulted, and where relevant the form of authority for the decision. 5:  There should be a systematic and transparent disclosure of the expected benefits and harms that may reasonably affect patient choice on whether or not to undergo any diagnostic or interventional endoscopic procedure. Information about possible alternatives, as well as the consequences of doing nothing, should also be provided when relevant. 6:  The information provided on the benefit and harms of an endoscopic procedure should be adapted to the procedure and patient-specific risk factors, and the preferences of the patient should be central to the consent process. 7:  The consent discussion should be undertaken by an individual who is familiar with the procedure and its risks, and is able to discuss these in the context of the individual patient. 8:  Patients should confirm consent to an endoscopic procedure in a private, unrushed, and non-coercive environment. 9:  If a patient requests that an endoscopic procedure be discontinued, the procedure should be paused and the patient's capacity for decision making assessed. If a competent patient continues to object to the procedure, or if a conclusive determination of capacity is not feasible, the examination should be terminated as soon as it is safe to do so. 10: Informed consent should be sufficiently detailed to cover all findings that can be reasonably anticipated during an endoscopic examination. The scope of this consent should not be expanded, nor a patient's implicit consent for additional interventions assumed, unless failure to proceed with such interventions would result in immediate and predictable harm to the patient.

Predicted Heart Mass: A Tale of 2 Ventricles

BACKGROUND

Total predicted heart mass (PHM) is the recommended metric to assess donor-recipient size matching in patients undergoing heart transplantation. Separately measuring right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular (LV) PHM may improve risk prediction of 1-year graft failure.

METHODS

Adult heart transplant recipients from the UNOS database from 2000 to 2018 were included in the study. LV and RV PHM were modeled as restricted cubic splines. The association with 1-year graft failure was determined using adjusted Cox regression. The risk reclassification of using both LV and RV PHM versus total PHM was assessed using the net reclassification index.

RESULTS

A total of 34 976 recipients were included. We observed a U-shaped association between total PHM and 1-year graft failure, such that risk increased for hearts undersized by >15% and those oversized by more than 27%. Graft failure incrementally increased when LV PHM was undersized by more than 5% and when RV was oversized by >20%. There was 1.5-fold greater risk of graft failure for an LV undersized by >26% or an RV oversized by more than 40%. Using LV and RV PHM risk-assessment separately led to a net reclassification index=8.5% ([95% CI, 5.3%-11.7%], nonevent net reclassification index=9.1%, event net reclassification index=-0.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

The association between donor-recipient PHM match and the risk of graft failure after heart transplantation can be further understood as risk attributable to LV undersizing and RV oversizing. Assessing LV and RV PHM separately instead of total PHM could further refine the methods used to match donors and recipients for heart transplantation, minimize the risk of 1-year graft failure, and increase the use of donor organs.

Real-Time Computer-Aided Detection of Colorectal Neoplasia During Colonoscopy : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence computer-aided detection (CADe) of colorectal neoplasia during colonoscopy may increase adenoma detection rates (ADRs) and reduce adenoma miss rates, but it may increase overdiagnosis and overtreatment of nonneoplastic polyps.

PURPOSE

To quantify the benefits and harms of CADe in randomized trials.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis. (PROSPERO: CRD42022293181).

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, and Scopus databases through February 2023.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized trials comparing CADe-assisted with standard colonoscopy for polyp and cancer detection.

DATA EXTRACTION

Adenoma detection rate (proportion of patients with ≥1 adenoma), number of adenomas detected per colonoscopy, advanced adenoma (≥10 mm with high-grade dysplasia and villous histology), number of serrated lesions per colonoscopy, and adenoma miss rate were extracted as benefit outcomes. Number of polypectomies for nonneoplastic lesions and withdrawal time were extracted as harm outcomes. For each outcome, studies were pooled using a random-effects model. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Twenty-one randomized trials on 18 232 patients were included. The ADR was higher in the CADe group than in the standard colonoscopy group (44.0% vs. 35.9%; relative risk, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.16 to 1.33]; low-certainty evidence), corresponding to a 55% (risk ratio, 0.45 [CI, 0.35 to 0.58]) relative reduction in miss rate (moderate-certainty evidence). More nonneoplastic polyps were removed in the CADe than the standard group (0.52 vs. 0.34 per colonoscopy; mean difference [MD], 0.18 polypectomy [CI, 0.11 to 0.26 polypectomy]; low-certainty evidence). Mean inspection time increased only marginally with CADe (MD, 0.47 minute [CI, 0.23 to 0.72 minute]; moderate-certainty evidence).

LIMITATIONS

This review focused on surrogates of patient-important outcomes. Most patients, however, may consider cancer incidence and cancer-related mortality important outcomes. The effect of CADe on such patient-important outcomes remains unclear.

CONCLUSION

The use of CADe for polyp detection during colonoscopy results in increased detection of adenomas but not advanced adenomas and in higher rates of unnecessary removal of nonneoplastic polyps.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

European Commission Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship.

Global Comparison of Readmission Rates for Patients With Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) readmission rates are low in some jurisdictions. However, international comparisons are lacking and could serve as a foundation for identifying regional patient management strategies that could be shared to improve outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to summarize 30-day and 1-year all-cause readmission and mortality rates of hospitalized HF patients across countries and to explore potential differences in rates globally.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis using MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL for observational reports on hospitalized adult HF patients at risk for readmission or mortality published between January 2010 and March 2021. We conducted a meta-analysis of proportions using a random-effects model, and sources of heterogeneity were evaluated with meta-regression.

RESULTS

In total, 24 papers reporting on 30-day and 23 papers on 1-year readmission were included. Of the 1.5 million individuals at risk, 13.2% (95% CI: 10.5%-16.1%) were readmitted within 30 days and 35.7% (95% CI: 27.1%-44.9%) within 1 year. A total of 33 papers reported on 30-day and 45 papers on 1-year mortality. Of the 1.5 million individuals hospitalized for HF, 7.6% (95% CI: 6.1%-9.3%) died within 30 days and 23.3% (95% CI: 20.8%-25.9%) died within 1 year. Substantial variation in risk across countries was unexplained by countries' gross domestic product, proportion of gross domestic product spent on health care, and Gini coefficient.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, hospitalized HF patients exhibit high rates of readmission and mortality, and the variability in readmission rates was not explained by health care expenditure, risk of mortality, or comorbidities.

Impact of vincristine-steroid pulses during maintenance for B-cell pediatric ALL: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The benefit associated with the incorporation of vincristine-corticosteroid pulses in maintenance therapy for pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is unclear, particularly in the context of modern intensive therapy. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined the impact of reducing the frequency of vincristine-steroid pulses during maintenance for pediatric patients newly diagnosed with B-cell ALL. Two authors reviewed all eligible studies identified through a comprehensive search, extracted data from 25 publications (12 513 patients), and assessed the risk of bias. We created historical and contemporary subgroups; the latter included trials providing both a version of Protocol III from the early Berlin-Frankfurt-Munster trials and eliminating routine prophylactic cranial radiation. Meta-analysis of event-free survival data suggested no benefit between more frequent or less frequent pulses in contemporary trials (hazard ratio [HR], 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.09), which differed significantly from historical trials (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.68-0.91; P = .04). We found no significant impact of reduced pulse frequency on overall survival or relapse risk. There was however increased odds of grade 3+ nonhepatic toxicity in the high-pulse frequency group (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12-1.52). This systematic review suggests that the previous benefit conferred by frequent pulses of vincristine-steroids in maintenance therapy for pediatric B-cell ALL in historical trials no longer applies in contemporary trials but is associated with toxicity. These results will help guide the development of the next phase of clinical trials in the field of pediatric ALL and question the continued use of pulses in maintenance among patients not in clinical trials, particularly those experiencing toxicity.

Obesity as an independent risk factor for COVID-19 severity and mortality

BACKGROUND

Since December 2019, the world has struggled with the COVID-19 pandemic. Even after the introduction of various vaccines, this disease still takes a considerable toll. In order to improve the optimal allocation of resources and communication of prognosis, healthcare providers and patients need an accurate understanding of factors (such as obesity) that are associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes from the COVID-19 infection.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate obesity as an independent prognostic factor for COVID-19 severity and mortality among adult patients in whom infection with the COVID-19 virus is confirmed.

SEARCH METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, two COVID-19 reference collections, and four Chinese biomedical databases were searched up to April 2021.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included case-control, case-series, prospective and retrospective cohort studies, and secondary analyses of randomised controlled trials if they evaluated associations between obesity and COVID-19 adverse outcomes including mortality, mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, hospitalisation, severe COVID, and COVID pneumonia. Given our interest in ascertaining the independent association between obesity and these outcomes, we selected studies that adjusted for at least one factor other than obesity. Studies were evaluated for inclusion by two independent reviewers working in duplicate.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Using standardised data extraction forms, we extracted relevant information from the included studies. When appropriate, we pooled the estimates of association across studies with the use of random-effects meta-analyses. The Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool provided the platform for assessing the risk of bias across each included study. In our main comparison, we conducted meta-analyses for each obesity class separately. We also meta-analysed unclassified obesity and obesity as a continuous variable (5 kg/m2 increase in BMI (body mass index)). We used the GRADE framework to rate our certainty in the importance of the association observed between obesity and each outcome. As obesity is closely associated with other comorbidities, we decided to prespecify the minimum adjustment set of variables including age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease for subgroup analysis.  MAIN RESULTS: We identified 171 studies, 149 of which were included in meta-analyses.  As compared to 'normal' BMI (18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2) or patients without obesity, those with obesity classes I (BMI 30 to 35 kg/m2), and II (BMI 35 to 40 kg/m2) were not at increased odds for mortality (Class I: odds ratio [OR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94 to 1.16, high certainty (15 studies, 335,209 participants); Class II: OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.36, high certainty (11 studies, 317,925 participants)). However, those with class III obesity (BMI 40 kg/m2 and above) may be at increased odds for mortality (Class III: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.00, low certainty, (19 studies, 354,967 participants)) compared to normal BMI or patients without obesity. For mechanical ventilation, we observed increasing odds with higher classes of obesity in comparison to normal BMI or patients without obesity (class I: OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.59, 10 studies, 187,895 participants, moderate certainty; class II: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.96, 6 studies, 171,149 participants, high certainty; class III: OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.97, 12 studies, 174,520 participants, high certainty). However, we did not observe a dose-response relationship across increasing obesity classifications for ICU admission and hospitalisation.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that obesity is an important independent prognostic factor in the setting of COVID-19. Consideration of obesity may inform the optimal management and allocation of limited resources in the care of COVID-19 patients.

Long-Term Survivorship of Cervical Spine Procedures; A Survivorship Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a meta-analysis on the survivorship of commonly performed cervical spine procedures to develop survival function curves for (i) second surgery at any cervical level, and (ii) adjacent level surgery.

METHODS

A systematic review of was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. Articles with cohorts of greater than 20 patients followed for a minimum of 36 months and with available survival data were included. Procedures included were anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF), cervical disc arthroplasty (ADR), laminoplasty (LAMP), and posterior laminectomy and fusion (PDIF). Reconstructed individual patient data were pooled across studies using parametric Bayesian survival meta-regression.

RESULTS

Of 1829 initial titles, 16 citations were included for analysis. 73 811 patients were included in the second surgery analysis and 2858 patients in the adjacent level surgery analysis. We fit a Log normal accelerated failure time model to the second surgery data and a Gompertz proportional hazards model to the adjacent level surgery data. Relative to ACDF, the risk of second surgery was higher with ADR and PDIF with acceleration factors 1.73 (95% CrI: 1.04, 2.80) and 1.35 (95% CrI: 1.25, 1.46) respectively. Relative to ACDF, the risk of second surgery was lower with LAMP with deceleration factor .06 (95% CrI: .05, .07). ADR decreased the risk of adjacent level surgery with hazard ratio .43 (95% CrI: .33, .55).

CONCLUSIONS

In cases of clinical equipoise between fusion procedures, our analysis suggests superior survivorship with anterior procedures. For all procedures, laminoplasty demonstrated superior survivorship.

Monitoring Cardiac Biomarkers with Aptamer-Based Molecular Pendulum Sensors

Reagent-free electronic biosensors capable of analyzing disease markers directly in unprocessed body fluids will enable the development of simple & affordable devices for personalized healthcare monitoring. Here we report a powerful and versatile nucleic acid-based reagent-free electronic sensing system. The signal transduction is based on the kinetics of an electrode-tethered molecular pendulum - a rigid double stranded DNA with one of the strands displaying an analyte-binding aptamer and the other featuring a redox probe - that exhibits field-induced transport modulated by receptor occupancy. Using chronoamperometry, which enables the sensor to circumvent the conventional Debye length limitation, the binding of an analyte can be monitored as these species increase the hydrodynamic drag. The sensing platform demonstrate a low femtomolar quantification limit and minimal cross-reactivity in analyzing cardiac biomarkers in whole blood collected from patients with chronic heart failure.

GRADE Guidance 36: Updates to GRADE's approach to addressing inconsistency

OBJECTIVES

To update previous GRADE guidance addressing inconsistency and interpreting subgroup analyses.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Using an iterative process, we consulted with members of the GRADE working group through multiple rounds of written feedback and discussions at GRADE working group meetings.

RESULTS

The guidance complements previous guidance with clarification on two areas: (1) assessing inconsistency and (2) assessing the credibility of possible effect modifiers that might explain inconsistency. Specifically, the guidance clarifies that inconsistency refers to variability in results, not variability in study characteristics; that inconsistency assessment for binary outcomes requires consideration of both relative and absolute effects; how to decide between narrower and broader questions in systematic reviews and guidelines; that, with the same evidence, ratings of inconsistency may differ depending on the target of certainty rating; and how GRADE inconsistency ratings relate to a statistical measure of inconsistency I² depending on the context in which one views results. The second part of the guidance illustrates, based on a worked example, the use of the Instrument to assess the Credibility of Effect Modification Analyses (ICEMAN). The guidance explains the stepwise process of moving from a subgroup analysis to assessing the credibility of effect modification and, if found credible, to subgroup-specific effect estimates and GRADE certainty ratings.

CONCLUSION

This updated guidance addresses specific conceptual and practical issues that systematic review authors frequently face when considering the degree of inconsistency in estimates of treatment effects across studies.

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Graft Dysfunction Early After Heart Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a prevailing option for the management of severe early graft dysfunction. This systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aims to evaluate (1) mortality, (2) rates of major complications, (3) prognostic factors, and (4) the effect of different VA-ECMO strategies on outcomes in adult heart transplant (HT) recipients supported with VA-ECMO.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a systematic search and included studies of adults (≥18 years) who received VA-ECMO during their index hospitalization after HT and reported on mortality at any timepoint. We pooled data using random effects models. To identify prognostic factors, we analysed IPD using mixed effects logistic regression. We assessed the certainty in the evidence using the GRADE framework. We included 49 observational studies of 1477 patients who received VA-ECMO after HT, of which 15 studies provided IPD for 448 patients. There were no differences in mortality estimates between IPD and non-IPD studies. The short-term (30-day/in-hospital) mortality estimate was 33% (moderate certainty, 95% confidence interval [CI] 28%-39%) and 1-year mortality estimate 50% (moderate certainty, 95% CI 43%-57%). Recipient age (odds ratio 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04) and prior sternotomy (OR 1.57, 95% CI 0.99-2.49) are associated with increased short-term mortality. There is low certainty evidence that early intraoperative cannulation and peripheral cannulation reduce the risk of short-term death.

CONCLUSIONS

One-third of patients who receive VA-ECMO for early graft dysfunction do not survive 30 days or to hospital discharge, and one-half do not survive to 1 year after HT. Improving outcomes will require ongoing research focused on optimizing VA-ECMO strategies and care in the first year after HT.

Statin Use May Be Associated With a Lower Risk of Invasive Aspergillosis in Lung Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Statins are competitive inhibitors of 3-hydroxy-3methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMG-CoA reductase) that catalyses HMG-CoA conversion to mevalonate, a process involved in synthesizing cholesterol in humans and ergosterol in fungi. The effect of statin use on the risk of development of invasive aspergillosis (IA) in lung transplant recipients (LTRs) is not well documented.

METHODS

This retrospective study included LTRs from 2010 to 2017 who were followed for one-year post-transplant. Proven or probable IA was diagnosed as per ISHLT criteria. We performed a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model of the association between IA and statin use (minimum of 2 weeks duration prior to IA), adjusting for other known IA risk factors.

RESULTS

We identified 785 LTRs, 44% female, mean age 53 years old, the most common underlying disease being pulmonary fibrosis (23.8%). In total, 451 LTRs (57%) received statins post-transplant, atorvastatin was the most commonly used statin (68%). The mean duration of statins post-transplant was 347 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 305 to 346). And 55 (7%) LTRs developed IA in the first-year post-transplant. Out of these 55 LTRs, 9 (16.3%) had received statin before developing IA. In multivariable analysis, statin use was independently associated with a lower risk of IA (P = .002, SHR 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 95% .14-.64). Statin use was also associated with a lower incidence of post-transplant Aspergillus colonization, 114 (34%) in the no statin group vs 123 (27%) in the statin group (P = .038).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of statin for a minimum of two weeks during the first-year post-transplant was associated with a 70% risk reduction of IA in LTRs.

Patients with fulminant myocarditis supported with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of short-term mortality and impact of risk factors

Fulminant myocarditis (FM) may lead to cardiogenic shock requiring veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). Results of effectiveness studies of VA-ECMO have been contradictory. We evaluated the aggregate short-term mortality after VA-ECMO and predictive factors in patients with FM. We systematically searched in electronic databases (February 2022) to identify studies evaluating short-term mortality (defined as mortality at 30 days or in-hospital) after VA-ECMO support for FM. We included studies with 5 or more patients published after 2009. We assessed the quality of the evidence using the QUIPS and GRADE tools. Mortality was pooled using random effect models. We performed meta-regression to explore heterogeneity based on a priori defined factors. We included 54 observational studies encompassing 2388 FM patients supported with VA-ECMO. Median age was 41 years (25th to 75th percentile 37-47), and 50% were female. The pooled short-term mortality was 35% (95% CI 29-40%, I² = 69%; moderate certainty). By meta-regression, studies with younger populations showed lower mortality. Female sex, receiving a biopsy, cardiac arrest, left ventricular unloading, and earlier recruitment time frame, did not explain heterogeneity. These results remained consistent regardless of continent and the risk of bias category. In individual studies, low pH value, high lactate, absence of functional cardiac recovery on ECMO, increased burden of malignant arrhythmia, high peak coronary markers, and IVIG use were identified as independent predictors of mortality. When conventional therapies have failed, especially in younger patients, cardiopulmonary support with VA-ECMO should be considered in the treatment of severe FM.

Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for the diagnosis of immune thrombocytopenia

BACKGROUND

Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a diagnosis of exclusion that can resemble other thrombocytopenic disorders.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a clinical prediction model (CPM) for the diagnosis of ITP to aid hematogists in investigating patients presenting with undifferentiated thrombocytopenia.

METHODS

We designed a CPM for ITP diagnosis at the time of the initial hematology consultation using penalized logistic regression based on data from patients with thrombocytopenia enrolled in the McMaster ITP registry (n = 523) called the Predict-ITP Tool. The case definition for ITP was a platelet count less than 100 × 109 /L and a platelet count response after high-dose corticosteroids or intravenous immune globulin, defined as the achievement of a platelet count above 50 × 109 /L and at least a doubling of baseline. Internal validation was done using bootstrap resampling. Model discrimination was assessed by the c-statistic, and calibration was assessed by the calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and calibration plot.

RESULTS

The final model included the following variables: (1) platelet count variability (based on three or more platelet count values), (2) lowest platelet count value, (3) maximum mean platelet volume, and (4) history of major bleeding (defined by the ITP bleeding scale). The optimism-corrected c-statistic was 0.83, the calibration slope was 0.88, and calibration-in-the-large for all performance measures was <0.001 with standard error <0.001, indicating good discrimination and excellent calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The Predict-ITP Tool can estimate the likelihood of ITP for a given patient with thrombocytopenia at the time of the initial hematology consultation. The tool had high predictive accuracy for the diagnosis of ITP.

Living alone and all-cause mortality in community-dwelling adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The non-causal and causal associations, possible age and sex differences between living alone and all-cause mortality among adults were unclear. We aimed to assess the association and causal relation between living alone and all-cause mortality among community-dwelling adults, addressing the certainty of evidence, possible age and sex differences.

Methods

We searched Medline, Embase, and APA PsycINFO for cohort studies examining the association between living alone and all-cause mortality on November 19, 2021. We used the GRADE approach to assess certainty of evidence, and the Instrument for the Credibility of Effect Modification Analyses (ICEMAN) to evaluate credibility of subgroup inferences and conducted a meta-analysis of measures of association between living alone and mortality. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021290895.

Findings

18 cohort studies with 62,174 adults proved eligible. Living alone was associated with mortality (relative risk (RR) = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.23). Both age and sex modified the association (high and moderate credibility, separately). Living alone increased the risk of dying only in younger but not older individuals (ratio of RRs = 1.59, interaction P = 0.003; younger RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.17-1.71, high certainty for prognosis, low for causation; older RR = 1.05, 95% CI 0.91-1.22, moderate certainty for prognosis, very low for causation). Living alone increased risk to a greater extent in males than females (ratio of RRs = 1.39, 95% CI 1.14-1.70; interaction P = 0.001, males RR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.17-1.71, high certainty for prognosis, low for causation; females RR = 1.15, 95% CI 0.99-1.33; moderate for prognosis factor, very low for causation).

Interpretation

Living alone is associated with increased mortality in individuals under 65 years (high certainty) but not with those over 75 years; the association may be causal (low certainty). Associations, and possibly effects, may be stronger in men than women.

Funding

None.

Implementation of a Routine Screening Program for Latent Tuberculosis Infection among Patients with Acute Leukemia at a Canadian Cancer Center

BACKGROUND

Screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in patients with hematological malignancy is recommended because of their increased risk of tuberculosis (TB). We assessed the utility of tuberculin skin test (TST) screening in patients with acute leukemia and subsequent outcomes of LTBI treatment.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated patients ≥16 years of age with acute leukemia from 2013-2014 with a TST planted and read prior to the initiation of antineoplastic chemotherapy treatment. Demographics, clinical information and treatment outcomes of LTBI therapy were compared between patients with positive TST (≥10 mm induration) and negative TST.

RESULTS

A total of 389 patients with acute leukemia were included in the cohort. Of them, 37/389 (9.5%) had a positive TST. Only 3.4% (8/235) of individuals originating from North and South America as well as the Caribbean were TST positive, while 21% (20/95) of individuals from Asia were TST positive. Diagnostic imaging findings consistent with prior tuberculosis infection were higher in TST positive patients compared to TST negative ones (29.7% versus 9.4%, p < 0.0001). Furthermore, 31/38 patients (81.6%) who were TST positive received LTBI therapy, which was well tolerated. There was no significant difference in overall survival among those who received LTBI therapy compared to those who did not. No patients developed active TB.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal screening with TST may be of low yield in individuals with acute leukemia unless patients originate from a TB endemic country. When therapy for LTBI is prescribed, patients with acute leukemia do not experience drug-induced liver toxicity and are likely to complete the intended duration of therapy, thus preventing the development of active tuberculosis.

Amino acids for the prevention of mortality and morbidity in preterm infants: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

To determine the effectiveness and safety of amino acids in preventing the mortality and morbidity among preterm infants. We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, CINAHL, Scopus, Cochrane, and Google Scholar, and grey literature, from databases inception to January 2021. We included randomized trials that evaluated any amino acids on preterm or low-birth weight infants. We performed frequentist pairwise and network meta-analyses and used the GRADE methodology to assess the certainty of the evidence and provide a summary of the results.We included 18 trials (3702 infants). Low certainty evidence showed that there seems to be no benefit for arginine, glutamine, or N-acetylcysteine in reducing all-cause mortality. Oral arginine likely results in reduction of necrotizin enterocolitis (NEC) stage ≥ II (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.90; moderate certainty). Oral glutamine may reduce the likelihood of developing late-onset sepsis (LOS) compared to placebo (OR 0.62; 95% CI 0.47-0.82; low certainty); and likely reduces time to reach full enteral feeding (MD = - 2.63 days; 95% CI - 4.99 to - 0.27; moderate certainty). Amino acids may have no effect on mortality. Oral arginine may reduce severe NEC, and oral glutamine may reduce LOS and the time to reach full feeding.Systematic review registration: PROSPERO registration number: CRD4201603873.

Predictors of early renal dysfunction after heart transplantation: a report from the International Consortium on Primary Graft Dysfunction

Background

Renal dysfunction is a common complication after heart transplantation (HT). Renal replacement therapy (RRT) after HT has been associated with increased risk of death. Long-term renal dysfunction is associated mainly to immunosuppressive therapy but is also strongly related to post-transplant renal failure. Predictors of early renal dysfunction after HT have not been clearly identified.

Purpose

We aimed to define predictors of early renal dysfunction after HT.

Methods

Our consortium includes 10 centers in the US, Canada and Europe. We collected data on all consecutive single-organ HT recipients from 2010 to 2020. The primary outcome was early renal dysfunction (ERD), defined as a composite of need for RRT or creatinine ≥2.5 mg/dL 24 hours after HT. We assessed the incidence of early renal dysfunction and performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify the recipient and transplant characteristics associated with its development.

Results

We included 2,764 HT recipients: 282 (10.2%) presented early renal dysfunction and 2482 (89.8%) did not. Recipients who presented postoperative renal dysfunction were more frequently male, Caucasian, with previous sternotomy, higher baseline creatinine, longer ischemic time and worse donor LVEF. They were also more likely to be under RRT, intravenous inotropes or ECMO support and there was more incidence of severe primary graft dysfunction (PGD) (Table 1). Multi-variable logistic regression demonstrated that the strongest predictors for post-transplant renal dysfunction were development of severe PGD (OR 5.26, 2.88–9.62, p&lt;0,001) and RRT prior to HT (OR 5.80, 2.93–11.5, p&lt;0.001). Other predictors were male sex, previous sternotomy, long ischemic time and need for inotropes prior to HT.

Conclusions

Early renal dysfunction is a common complication after HT with an incidence around 10% in a large and contemporary cohort. The presence of PGD and need for RRT pre-transplant were the strongest predictors for its development. Interestingly, emergent transplantation or need for MCS were not independently associated with ERD. Further studies are needed to identify patients at high risk of early and late kidney dysfunction that may benefit from combined transplantation.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Clinical Practice Guidelines From the Association for the Advancement of Blood and Biotherapies (AABB): COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma

DESCRIPTION

Coronavirus disease 2019 convalescent plasma (CCP) has emerged as a potential treatment of COVID-19. However, meta-analysis data and recommendations are limited. The Association for the Advancement of Blood and Biotherapies (AABB) developed clinical practice guidelines for the appropriate use of CCP.

METHODS

These guidelines are based on 2 living systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating CCP from 1 January 2019 to 26 January 2022. There were 33 RCTs assessing 21 916 participants. The results were summarized using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) method. An expert panel reviewed the data using the GRADE framework to formulate recommendations.

RECOMMENDATION 1 (OUTPATIENT)

The AABB suggests CCP transfusion in addition to the usual standard of care for outpatients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for disease progression (weak recommendation, moderate-certainty evidence).

RECOMMENDATION 2 (INPATIENT)

The AABB recommends against CCP transfusion for unselected hospitalized persons with moderate or severe disease (strong recommendation, high-certainty evidence). This recommendation does not apply to immunosuppressed patients or those who lack antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.

RECOMMENDATION 3 (INPATIENT)

The AABB suggests CCP transfusion in addition to the usual standard of care for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who do not have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detected at admission (weak recommendation, low-certainty evidence).

RECOMMENDATION 4 (INPATIENT)

The AABB suggests CCP transfusion in addition to the usual standard of care for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and preexisting immunosuppression (weak recommendation, low-certainty evidence).

RECOMMENDATION 5 (PROPHYLAXIS)

The AABB suggests against prophylactic CCP transfusion for uninfected persons with close contact exposure to a person with COVID-19 (weak recommendation, low-certainty evidence).

GOOD CLINICAL PRACTICE STATEMENT

CCP is most effective when transfused with high neutralizing titers to infected patients early after symptom onset.

Vitamin K antagonist reversal strategies: Systematic review and network meta-analysis from the AABB

BACKGROUND

Anticoagulation requires urgent reversal in cases of life-threatening bleeding or invasive procedures.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Network meta-analysis for comparing the safety and efficacy of warfarin reversal strategies including plasma and prothrombin complex concentrates (PCCs).

RESULTS

Seven studies including 594 subjects using reversal agents plasma, 3-factor-PCC (Uman Complex and Konyne), and 4-factor-PCC (Beriplex/KCentra, Octaplex, and Cofact) met inclusion criteria. Compared with plasma, patients receiving Cofact probably have a higher rate of international normalized ratio (INR) correction (risk difference [RD] 499 more per 1000 patients, 95% confidence interval [CI], 176-761, low certainty[LC]); higher reversal of bleeding (323 more per 1000 patients, 11-344 more, LC); and fewer transfusion requirements (0.96 fewer units, 1.65-0.27 fewer, LC). Patients receiving Beriplex/KCentra probably have a higher rate of INR correction (476 more per 1000 patients, 332-609 more, LC); higher reversal of bleeding (127 more per 1000 patients, 43 fewer to 236 more); and similar transfusion requirements (0.01 fewer units, 0.31 fewer to 0.28 more, high/moderate certainty). Patients receiving Octaplex probably have a higher rate of INR correction (RD 579 more per 1000 patients, 189-825 more, LC).

CONCLUSIONS

PCCs probably provide an advantage in INR reversal compared to plasma. There was no added risk of adverse events with PCCs.

Predicted heart mass for size matching in obese heart transplant donors and recipients

INTRODUCTION

Predicted heart mass (PHM) was neither derived nor evaluated in an obese population. Our objective was to evaluate size mismatch using actual body weight or IBW-adjusted PHM on mortality and risk assessment.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult recipients with BMI ≥30 kg/m² or recipients of donors with BMI≥30 kg/m² from the ISHLT registry. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate 30 day and 1-year mortality. The 2 models were compared using net reclassification index.

RESULTS

10,817 HT recipients, age 55 (IQR 46-62) years, 23% female, BMI 31 kg/m² (IQR 28-33) were included. Donors were age 34 (IQR 24-44) years, 31% female, and BMI 31 kg/m² (IQR 26-34). There was a significant non-linear association between mortality and actual PHM but not IBW-adjusted PHM. Undersizing using actual PHM was associated with higher 30-day and 1-year mortality (p<0.01), not seen with IBW-adjusted PHM. Actual PHM better risk classified 0.6% (95% CI 0.3-0.8%) patients compared to IBW-adjusted PHM.

CONCLUSION

Actual PHM can be used for size matching when assessing mortality risk in obese recipients or recipients of obese donors. There is no advantage to re-calculating PHM using IBW to define candidate risk at the time of organ allocation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Theory and practice of Bayesian and frequentist frameworks for network meta-analysis

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is an increasingly popular statistical method of synthesising evidence to assess the comparative benefits and harms of multiple treatments in a single analysis. Several automated software packages facilitate conducting NMA using either of two alternative approaches, Bayesian or frequentist frameworks. Researchers must choose a framework for conducting NMA (Bayesian or frequentist) and select appropriate model(s), and those conducting NMA need to understand the assumptions and limitations of different approaches. Bayesian models are more frequently used and can be more flexible but require checking additional assumptions and greater statistical expertise that are often ignored. The present paper describes the important theoretical aspects of Bayesian and frequentist models for NMA and the applications and considerations of contrast-synthesis and arm-synthesis NMAs. In addition, we present evidence from a limited number of simulation and empirical studies that compared different frequentist and Bayesian models and provide an overview of available automated software packages to perform NMA. We will conclude that when analysts choose appropriate models, there are seldom important differences in the results of Bayesian and frequentist approaches and that network meta-analysts should therefore focus on model features rather than the statistical framework.

Serious reporting deficiencies exist in minimal important difference studies: Current state and suggestions for improvement

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate reporting of minimal important difference (MID) estimates using anchor-based methods for patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and the association with reporting deficiencies on their credibility.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Systematic survey of primary studies empirically estimating MIDs. We searched Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and the Patient-Reported Outcome and Quality of Life Instruments Database until October 2018. We evaluated study reporting, focusing on participants' demographics, intervention(s), characteristics of PROMs and anchors, and MID estimation method(s). We assessed the impact of reporting issues on credibility of MID estimates.

RESULTS

In 585 studies reporting on 5,324 MID estimates for 526 distinct PROMs, authors frequently failed to adequately report key characteristics of PROMs and MIDs, including minimum and maximum values of PROM scale, measure of variability accompanying the MID estimate and number of participants included in the MID calculation. Across MID estimates (n=5,324), the most serious reporting issues impacting credibility included infrequent reporting of the correlation between the anchor and PROM (66%), inadequate details to judge precision of MID point estimate (13%), and insufficient information about the threshold used to ascertain MIDs (16%).

CONCLUSION

Serious issues of incomplete reporting in the MID literature threaten the optimal use of MID estimates to inform the magnitude of effects of interventions on PROMs.

Antifungal prophylaxis in adult lung transplant recipients: Uncertainty despite 30 years of experience. A systematic review of the literature and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Invasive fungal infections (IFI), particularly invasive aspergillosis (IA), cause significant morbidity and mortality in lung transplant (LTx) recipients. The optimum strategy and antifungal agents for prevention are unclear.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive literature search, systematic review, and network meta-analysis using a frequentist framework to compare the efficacy of various antifungal drugs on the incidence of IA/IFI in the setting of universal prophylaxis or no prophylaxis following lung transplantation.

RESULTS

We included 13 eligible studies comprising of 1515 LTx recipients and 12 different prophylaxis strategies/antifungal combinations. The greatest number of direct comparisons were between the inhaled amphotericin formulations. The top three ranked treatments were inhaled liposomal amphotericin B (L-AmB), inhaled amphotericin deoxycholate (AmBd), and itraconazole plus inhaled amphotericin B (AmB). Among the azoles, isavuconazole ranked highest. The certainty of the evidence, assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework, was very low.

CONCLUSION

Although universal antifungal prophylaxis post lung transplantation is commonly used, robust data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to inform the choice of antifungal agent and prophylaxis strategy are lacking. This exploratory network meta-analysis provides insight into the probable relative effectiveness of various antifungal agents in preventing IA, and this analysis should serve as a guide when selecting antifungals to be assessed in a RCT.

Risk factors of invasive fungal infections in liver transplant recipients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Invasive fungal infections (IFIs) remain one of the most common infectious complications after organ transplantation, and liver transplant recipients (LTRs) have the highest mortality rate. However, risk factors associated with IFIs have only been evaluated in small single-center studies. We performed a meta-analysis by conducting a comprehensive search using Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, and Cochrane central register of controlled trials. All case-control and cohort studies evaluating risk factors for IFIs in adult LTRs were screened. Utilizing a random-effects model, a multivariate analysis was completed, and 28 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. Rates of IFIs ranged from 1.4% to 32.7%. Previous antibiotic use (OR 9.3; 95% CI 3.2-27.0) and bacterial infection (OR 4.3; 95% CI 2.1-8.6) were risk factors of invasive candidiasis. Yet for invasive aspergillosis, posttransplant renal replacement therapy (OR 9.2; 95% CI 4.2-20.4), reoperation (OR 8.0; 95% CI 2.9-21.7), and cytomegalovirus infection (OR 6.2; 95% CI 2.0-19.3) were risk factors. The top independent risk factors for IFIs during studies from 2010 to 2019 were previous fungal colonization (OR 9.19; 95% CI 4.92-17.16), reoperation (OR 5.45; 95% CI 2.93-10.15), and previous bacterial infections (OR 3.81; 95% CI 2.13-6.83). These risk factors may be targeted by antifungal prophylaxis in LTRs.

Prognostic value of blood pressure in ambulatory heart failure: a meta-analysis and systematic review. Ambulatory blood pressure predicts heart failure prognosis

Previous primary studies have explored the association between blood pressure (BP) and mortality in ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients reporting varying and contrasting associations. The aim is to determine the pooled BP prognostic value and explore potential reasons for between-study inconsistency. We searched Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE and CINAHL from January 2005 to October 2018 for studies with ≥ 50 events (mortality and/or hospitalization) and included BP in a multivariable model in ambulatory HF patients. We pooled hazard ratios (random effects model) for systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP) effect on mortality and/or hospitalization risk. We used a priori defined sub-group analyses to explore heterogeneity and GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. Seventy-one eligible articles (239,467 screened) at low to moderate risk of bias included 235,752 participants. Higher SBP was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (HR 0.93, 95%CI 0.91-0.95, I2 = 87.13%, moderate certainty), all-cause hospitalization events (HR 0.91, 95%CI 0.88-0.93, I2 = 44.4%, high certainty) and their composite endpoint (HR 0.93 per 10 mmHg, 95%CI 0.91-0.94, I2 = 86.3%, high certainty). DBP did not demonstrate a statistically significant effect for all outcomes. The association strength was significantly weaker in studies following patients with either LVEF > 40%, higher average SBP (> 130 mmHg), increasing age and diabetes. All other a priori subgroup hypotheses did not explain between study differences. Higher ambulatory SBP is associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality and hospitalization. Patients with lower BP and reduced LVEF are in a high-risk group of developing adverse events with moderate certainty of evidence.