Feedback loops drive ecological succession: towards a unified conceptual framework

The core principle shared by most theories and models of succession is that, following a major disturbance, plant-environment feedback dynamics drive a directional change in the plant community. The most commonly studied feedback loops are those in which the regrowth of the plant community causes changes to the abiotic (e.g. soil nutrients) or biotic (e.g. dispersers) environment, which differentially affect species availability or performance. This, in turn, leads to shifts in the species composition of the plant community. However, there are many other PE feedback loops that potentially drive succession, each of which can be considered a model of succession. While plant-environment feedback loops in principle generate predictable successional trajectories, succession is generally observed to be highly variable. Factors contributing to this variability are the stochastic processes involved in feedback dynamics, such as individual mortality and seed dispersal, and extrinsic causes of succession, which are not affected by changes in the plant community but do affect species performance or availability. Both can lead to variation in the identity of dominant species within communities. This, in turn, leads to further contingencies if these species differ in their effect on their environment (priority effects). Predictability and variability are thus intrinsically linked features of ecological succession. We present a new conceptual framework of ecological succession that integrates the propositions discussed above. This framework defines seven general causes: landscape context, disturbance and land-use, biotic factors, abiotic factors, species availability, species performance, and the plant community. When involved in a feedback loop, these general causes drive succession and when not, they are extrinsic causes that create variability in successional trajectories and dynamics. The proposed framework provides a guide for linking these general causes into causal pathways that represent specific models of succession. Our framework represents a systematic approach to identifying the main feedback processes and causes of variation at different successional stages. It can be used for systematic comparisons among study sites and along environmental gradients, to conceptualise studies, and to guide the formulation of research questions and design of field studies. Mapping an extensive field study onto our conceptual framework revealed that the pathways representing the study's empirical outcomes and conceptual model had important differences, underlining the need to move beyond the conceptual models that currently dominate in specific fields and to find ways to examine the importance of and interactions among alternative causal pathways of succession. To further this aim, we argue for integrating long-term studies across environmental and anthropogenic gradients, combined with controlled experiments and dynamic modelling.

Tree demographic strategies largely overlap across succession in Neotropical wet and dry forest communities

Secondary tropical forests play an increasingly important role in carbon budgets and biodiversity conservation. Understanding successional trajectories is therefore imperative for guiding forest restoration and climate change mitigation efforts. Forest succession is driven by the demographic strategies-combinations of growth, mortality and recruitment rates-of the tree species in the community. However, our understanding of demographic diversity in tropical tree species stems almost exclusively from old-growth forests. Here, we assembled demographic information from repeated forest inventories along chronosequences in two wet (Costa Rica, Panama) and two dry (Mexico) Neotropical forests to assess whether the ranges of demographic strategies present in a community shift across succession. We calculated demographic rates for >500 tree species while controlling for canopy status to compare demographic diversity (i.e., the ranges of demographic strategies) in early successional (0-30 years), late successional (30-120 years) and old-growth forests using two-dimensional hypervolumes of pairs of demographic rates. Ranges of demographic strategies largely overlapped across successional stages, and early successional stages already covered the full spectrum of demographic strategies found in old-growth forests. An exception was a group of species characterized by exceptionally high mortality rates that was confined to early successional stages in the two wet forests. The range of demographic strategies did not expand with succession. Our results suggest that studies of long-term forest monitoring plots in old-growth forests, from which most of our current understanding of demographic strategies of tropical tree species is derived, are surprisingly representative of demographic diversity in general, but do not replace the need for further studies in secondary forests.

Trees adjust nutrient acquisition strategies across tropical forest secondary succession

Nutrient limitation may constrain the ability of recovering and mature tropical forests to serve as a carbon sink. However, it is unclear to what extent trees can utilize nutrient acquisition strategies - especially root phosphatase enzymes and mycorrhizal symbioses - to overcome low nutrient availability across secondary succession. Using a large-scale, full factorial nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization experiment of 76 plots along a secondary successional gradient in lowland wet tropical forests of Panama, we tested the extent to which root phosphatase enzyme activity and mycorrhizal colonization are flexible, and if investment shifts over succession, reflective of changing nutrient limitation. We also conducted a meta-analysis to test how tropical trees adjust these strategies in response to nutrient additions and across succession. We find that tropical trees are dynamic, adjusting investment in strategies - particularly root phosphatase - in response to changing nutrient conditions through succession. These changes reflect a shift from strong nitrogen to weak phosphorus limitation over succession. Our meta-analysis findings were consistent with our field study; we found more predictable responses of root phosphatase than mycorrhizal colonization to nutrient availability. Our findings suggest that nutrient acquisition strategies respond to nutrient availability and demand in tropical forests, likely critical for alleviating nutrient limitation.

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

Global dominance of lianas over trees is driven by forest disturbance, climate and topography

Growing evidence suggests that liana competition with trees is threatening the global carbon sink by slowing the recovery of forests following disturbance. A recent theory based on local and regional evidence further proposes that the competitive success of lianas over trees is driven by interactions between forest disturbance and climate. We present the first global assessment of liana-tree relative performance in response to forest disturbance and climate drivers. Using an unprecedented dataset, we analysed 651 vegetation samples representing 26,538 lianas and 82,802 trees from 556 unique locations worldwide, derived from 83 publications. Results show that lianas perform better relative to trees (increasing liana-to-tree ratio) when forests are disturbed, under warmer temperatures and lower precipitation and towards the tropical lowlands. We also found that lianas can be a critical factor hindering forest recovery in disturbed forests experiencing liana-favourable climates, as chronosequence data show that high competitive success of lianas over trees can persist for decades following disturbances, especially when the annual mean temperature exceeds 27.8°C, precipitation is less than 1614 mm and climatic water deficit is more than 829 mm. These findings reveal that degraded tropical forests with environmental conditions favouring lianas are disproportionately more vulnerable to liana dominance and thus can potentially stall succession, with important implications for the global carbon sink, and hence should be the highest priority to consider for restoration management.

Mixed success for carbon payments and subsidies in support of forest restoration in the neotropics

Restoration of forests in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has the potential to contribute to international carbon mitigation targets. However, high upfront costs and variable cashflows are obstacles for many landholders. Carbon payments have been promoted as a mechanism to incentivize restoration and economists have suggested cost-sharing by third parties to reduce financial burdens of restoration. Yet empirical evidence to support this theory, based on robust, dynamic field sampling is lacking. Here we use large, long-term datasets from Panama to evaluate the financial prospects of three forest restoration methods under different cost-sharing and carbon payment designs where income is generated through timber harvests. We show some, but not all options are economically viable. Further work combining growth and survival data from field trials with more sophisticated financial analyses is essential to understanding barriers and realizing the potential of forest restoration in LMICs to help meet global carbon mitigation commitments.

Tallo: A global tree allometry and crown architecture database

Data capturing multiple axes of tree size and shape, such as a tree's stem diameter, height and crown size, underpin a wide range of ecological research-from developing and testing theory on forest structure and dynamics, to estimating forest carbon stocks and their uncertainties, and integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes. However, these data can be surprisingly hard to come by, particularly for certain regions of the world and for specific taxonomic groups, posing a real barrier to progress in these fields. To overcome this challenge, we developed the Tallo database, a collection of 498,838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees for which stem diameter, height and/or crown radius have been measured. These data were collected at 61,856 globally distributed sites, spanning all major forested and non-forested biomes. The majority of trees in the database are identified to species (88%), and collectively Tallo includes data for 5163 species distributed across 1453 genera and 187 plant families. The database is publicly archived under a CC-BY 4.0 licence and can be access from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6637599. To demonstrate its value, here we present three case studies that highlight how the Tallo database can be used to address a range of theoretical and applied questions in ecology-from testing the predictions of metabolic scaling theory, to exploring the limits of tree allometric plasticity along environmental gradients and modelling global variation in maximum attainable tree height. In doing so, we provide a key resource for field ecologists, remote sensing researchers and the modelling community working together to better understand the role that trees play in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Experimental infection of Mexican free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis) with SARS-CoV-2

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus originated in wild bats from Asia, and as the resulting pandemic continues into its third year, concerns have been raised that the virus will expand its host range and infect North American wildlife species, including bats. Mexican free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis : TABR) live in large colonies in the southern United States, often in urban areas, and as such, could be exposed to the virus from infected humans. We experimentally challenged wild TABR with SARS-CoV-2 to determine the susceptibility, reservoir potential, and population impacts of infection in this species. Of nine bats oronasally inoculated with SARS-CoV-2, five became infected and orally excreted moderate amounts of virus for up to 18 days post inoculation. These five subjects all seroconverted and cleared the virus before the end of the study with no obvious clinical signs of disease. We additionally found no evidence of viral transmission to uninoculated subjects. These results indicate that while TABR are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, infection of wild populations of TABR would not likely cause mortality. However, the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from TABR to or from humans, or to other animal species, is a distinct possibility requiring further investigation to better define.

Strong floristic distinctiveness across Neotropical successional forests

Forests that regrow naturally on abandoned fields are important for restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services, but can they also preserve the distinct regional tree floras? Using the floristic composition of 1215 early successional forests (≤20 years) in 75 human-modified landscapes across the Neotropic realm, we identified 14 distinct floristic groups, with a between-group dissimilarity of 0.97. Floristic groups were associated with location, bioregions, soil pH, temperature seasonality, and water availability. Hence, there is large continental-scale variation in the species composition of early successional forests, which is mainly associated with biogeographic and environmental factors but not with human disturbance indicators. This floristic distinctiveness is partially driven by regionally restricted species belonging to widespread genera. Early secondary forests contribute therefore to restoring and conserving the distinctiveness of bioregions across the Neotropical realm, and forest restoration initiatives should use local species to assure that these distinct floras are maintained.

Species-level tree crown maps improve predictions of tree recruit abundance in a tropical landscape

Predicting forest recovery at landscape scales will aid forest restoration efforts. The first step in successful forest recovery is tree recruitment. Forecasts of tree recruit abundance, derived from the landscape-scale distribution of seed sources (i.e., adult trees), could assist efforts to identify sites with high potential for natural regeneration. However, previous work revealed wide variation in the effect of seed sources on seedling abundance, from positive to no effect. We quantified the relationship between adult tree seed sources and tree recruits and predicted where natural recruitment would occur in a fragmented, tropical, agricultural landscape. We integrated species-specific tree crown maps generated from hyperspectral imagery and property ownership data with field data on the spatial distribution of tree recruits from five species. We then developed hierarchical Bayesian models to predict landscape-scale recruit abundance. Our models revealed that species-specific maps of tree crowns improved recruit abundance predictions. Conspecific crown area had a much stronger impact on recruitment abundance (8.00% increase in recruit abundance when conspecific tree density increases from zero to one tree; 95% credible interval (CI): 0.80% to 11.57%) than heterospecific crown area (0.03% increase with the addition of a single heterospecific tree, 95% CI: -0.60% to 0.68%). Individual property ownership was also an important predictor of recruit abundance: The best performing model had varying effects of conspecific and heterospecific crown area on recruit abundance, depending on individual property ownership. We demonstrate how novel remote sensing approaches and cadastral data can be used to generate high-resolution and landscape-level maps of tree recruit abundance. Spatial models parameterized with field, cadastral, and remote sensing data are poised to assist decision support for forest landscape restoration.

Multidimensional tropical forest recovery

[Figure: see text].

Functional recovery of secondary tropical forests

One-third of all Neotropical forests are secondary forests that regrow naturally after agricultural use through secondary succession. We need to understand better how and why succession varies across environmental gradients and broad geographic scales. Here, we analyze functional recovery using community data on seven plant characteristics (traits) of 1,016 forest plots from 30 chronosequence sites across the Neotropics. By analyzing communities in terms of their traits, we enhance understanding of the mechanisms of succession, assess ecosystem recovery, and use these insights to propose successful forest restoration strategies. Wet and dry forests diverged markedly for several traits that increase growth rate in wet forests but come at the expense of reduced drought tolerance, delay, or avoidance, which is important in seasonally dry forests. Dry and wet forests showed different successional pathways for several traits. In dry forests, species turnover is driven by drought tolerance traits that are important early in succession and in wet forests by shade tolerance traits that are important later in succession. In both forests, deciduous and compound-leaved trees decreased with forest age, probably because microclimatic conditions became less hot and dry. Our results suggest that climatic water availability drives functional recovery by influencing the start and trajectory of succession, resulting in a convergence of community trait values with forest age when vegetation cover builds up. Within plots, the range in functional trait values increased with age. Based on the observed successional trait changes, we indicate the consequences for carbon and nutrient cycling and propose an ecologically sound strategy to improve forest restoration success.

Successional syndromes of saplings in tropical secondary forests emerge from environment-dependent trait-demography relationships

Identifying generalisable processes that underpin population dynamics is crucial for understanding successional patterns. While longitudinal or chronosequence data are powerful tools for doing so, the traditional focus on community-level shifts in taxonomic and functional composition rather than species-level trait-demography relationships has made generalisation difficult. Using joint species distribution models, we demonstrate how three traits-photosynthetic rate, adult stature, and seed mass-moderate recruitment and sapling mortality rates of 46 woody species during secondary succession. We show that the pioneer syndrome emerges from higher photosynthetic rates, shorter adult statures and lighter seeds that facilitate exploitation of light in younger secondary forests, while 'long-lived pioneer' and 'late successional' syndromes are associated with trait values that enable species to persist in the understory or reach the upper canopy in older secondary forests. Our study highlights the context dependency of trait-demography relationships, which drive successional shifts in sapling's species composition in secondary forests.

Resistance of African tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

The responses of tropical forests to environmental change are critical uncertainties in predicting the future impacts of climate change. The positive phase of the 2015-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation resulted in unprecedented heat and low precipitation in the tropics with substantial impacts on the global carbon cycle. The role of African tropical forests is uncertain as their responses to short-term drought and temperature anomalies have yet to be determined using on-the-ground measurements. African tropical forests may be particularly sensitive because they exist in relatively dry conditions compared with Amazonian or Asian forests, or they may be more resistant because of an abundance of drought-adapted species. Here, we report responses of structurally intact old-growth lowland tropical forests inventoried within the African Tropical Rainforest Observatory Network (AfriTRON). We use 100 long-term inventory plots from six countries each measured at least twice prior to and once following the 2015-2016 El Niño event. These plots experienced the highest temperatures and driest conditions on record. The record temperature did not significantly reduce carbon gains from tree growth or significantly increase carbon losses from tree mortality, but the record drought did significantly decrease net carbon uptake. Overall, the long-term biomass increase of these forests was reduced due to the El Niño event, but these plots remained a live biomass carbon sink (0.51 ± 0.40 Mg C ha-1 y-1) despite extreme environmental conditions. Our analyses, while limited to African tropical forests, suggest they may be more resistant to climatic extremes than Amazonian and Asian forests.

Legume-microbiome interactions unlock mineral nutrients in regrowing tropical forests

Legume trees form an abundant and functionally important component of tropical forests worldwide with N2-fixing symbioses linked to enhanced growth and recruitment in early secondary succession. However, it remains unclear how N2-fixers meet the high demands for inorganic nutrients imposed by rapid biomass accumulation on nutrient-poor tropical soils. Here, we show that N2-fixing trees in secondary Neotropical forests triggered twofold higher in situ weathering of fresh primary silicates compared to non-N2-fixing trees and induced locally enhanced nutrient cycling by the soil microbiome community. Shotgun metagenomic data from weathered minerals support the role of enhanced nitrogen and carbon cycling in increasing acidity and weathering. Metagenomic and marker gene analyses further revealed increased microbial potential beneath N2-fixers for anaerobic iron reduction, a process regulating the pool of phosphorus bound to iron-bearing soil minerals. We find that the Fe(III)-reducing gene pool in soil is dominated by acidophilic Acidobacteria, including a highly abundant genus of previously undescribed bacteria, Candidatus Acidoferrum, genus novus. The resulting dependence of the Fe-cycling gene pool to pH determines the high iron-reducing potential encoded in the metagenome of the more acidic soils of N2-fixers and their nonfixing neighbors. We infer that by promoting the activities of a specialized local microbiome through changes in soil pH and C:N ratios, N2-fixing trees can influence the wider biogeochemical functioning of tropical forest ecosystems in a manner that enhances their ability to assimilate and store atmospheric carbon.

Biodiversity recovery of Neotropical secondary forests

Old-growth tropical forests harbor an immense diversity of tree species but are rapidly being cleared, while secondary forests that regrow on abandoned agricultural lands increase in extent. We assess how tree species richness and composition recover during secondary succession across gradients in environmental conditions and anthropogenic disturbance in an unprecedented multisite analysis for the Neotropics. Secondary forests recover remarkably fast in species richness but slowly in species composition. Secondary forests take a median time of five decades to recover the species richness of old-growth forest (80% recovery after 20 years) based on rarefaction analysis. Full recovery of species composition takes centuries (only 34% recovery after 20 years). A dual strategy that maintains both old-growth forests and species-rich secondary forests is therefore crucial for biodiversity conservation in human-modified tropical landscapes.

The persistence of carbon in the African forest understory

Quantifying carbon dynamics in forests is critical for understanding their role in long-term climate regulation^1-4. Yet little is known about tree longevity in tropical forests^3,5-8, a factor that is vital for estimating carbon persistence^3,4. Here we calculate mean carbon age (the period that carbon is fixed in trees⁷) in different strata of African tropical forests using (1) growth-ring records with a unique timestamp accurately demarcating 66 years of growth in one site and (2) measurements of diameter increments from the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network (23 sites). We find that in spite of their much smaller size, in understory trees mean carbon age (74 years) is greater than in sub-canopy (54 years) and canopy (57 years) trees and similar to carbon age in emergent trees (66 years). The remarkable carbon longevity in the understory results from slow and aperiodic growth as an adaptation to limited resource availability^9-11. Our analysis also reveals that while the understory represents a small share (11%) of the carbon stock^12,13, it contributes disproportionally to the forest carbon sink (20%). We conclude that accounting for the diversity of carbon age and carbon sequestration among different forest strata is critical for effective conservation management^14-16 and for accurate modelling of carbon cycling⁴.

Phosphatase activity and nitrogen fixation reflect species differences, not nutrient trading or nutrient balance, across tropical rainforest trees

A fundamental biogeochemical paradox is that nitrogen-rich tropical forests contain abundant nitrogen-fixing trees, which support a globally significant tropical carbon sink. One explanation for this pattern holds that nitrogen-fixing trees can overcome phosphorus limitation in tropical forests by synthesizing phosphatase enzymes to acquire soil organic phosphorus, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We evaluated whether nitrogen fixation and phosphatase activity are linked across 97 trees from seven species, and tested two hypotheses for explaining investment in nutrient strategies: trading nitrogen-for-phosphorus or balancing nutrient demand. Both strategies varied across species but were not explained by nitrogen-for-phosphorus trading or nutrient balance. This indicates that (1) studies of these nutrient strategies require broad sampling within and across species, (2) factors other than nutrient trading must be invoked to resolve the paradox of tropical nitrogen fixation, and (3) nitrogen-fixing trees cannot provide a positive nitrogen-phosphorus-carbon feedback to alleviate nutrient limitation of the tropical carbon sink.

Plant water use responses along secondary forest succession during the 2015-2016 El Niño drought in Panama

Tropical forests are increasingly being subjected to hotter, drier conditions as a result of global climate change. The effects of drought on forests along successional gradients remain poorly understood. We took advantage of the 2015-2016 El Niño event to test for differences in drought response along a successional gradient by measuring the sap flow in 76 trees, representing 42 different species, in 8-, 25- and 80-yr-old secondary forests in the 15-km² 'Agua Salud Project' study area, located in central Panama. Average sap velocities and sapwood-specific hydraulic conductivities were highest in the youngest forest. During the dry season drought, sap velocities increased significantly in the 80-yr-old forest as a result of higher evaporative demand, but not in younger forests. The main drivers of transpiration shifted from radiation to vapor pressure deficit with progressing forest succession. Soil volumetric water content was a limiting factor only in the youngest forest during the dry season, probably as a result of less root exploration in the soil. Trees in early-successional forests displayed stronger signs of regulatory responses to the 2015-2016 El Niño drought, and the limiting physiological processes for transpiration shifted from operating at the plant-soil interface to the plant-atmosphere interface with progressing forest succession.

Liana effects on biomass dynamics strengthen during secondary forest succession

Secondary forests are important carbon sinks, but their biomass dynamics vary markedly within and across landscapes. The biotic and abiotic drivers of this variation are still not well understood. We tested the effects of soil resource availability and competition by lianas on the biomass dynamics of young secondary tropical forests in Panama and assessed the extent to which liana effects were mediated by soil resource availability. Over a five-year period, growth, mortality, and recruitment of woody plants of ≥1 cm diameter were monitored in 84 plots in 3-30-year-old secondary forests across the Agua Salud site in central Panama. Biomass dynamics and the effects of lianas and soil resources were examined using (generalized) linear mixed-effect models and a model averaging approach. There was strong spatial and temporal variation in liana biomass within and across the plots. The relative biomass of lianas had a strong negative effect on overall tree growth, growth of understory trees decreased with soil fertility and dry season soil water content, and the effect of lianas on tree mortality varied with soil fertility. Tree recruitment was not associated with any of the predictor variables. Our model indicates that tree biomass growth across our landscape was reduced with 22% due to competition with lianas, and that the effect of lianas increased during succession, from 19% after five years to 32% after 30 years. The projected liana-induced growth reduction after 60 years was 47%, which was consistent with data from a nearby site. Our study shows that the observed liana proliferation across tropical forests may reduce the sequestration and storage of carbon in young secondary forests, with important implications for the carbon balance of tropical forest landscapes and consequently for global climate change. Our study highlights the need to incorporate lianas and soil variables in research on the biomass dynamics of secondary forest across tropical landscapes, and the need for well-replicated longitudinal studies to cover landscape-level variability in the relevant abiotic and biotic components.

A hyperspectral image can predict tropical tree growth rates in single-species stands

Remote sensing is increasingly needed to meet the critical demand for estimates of forest structure and composition at landscape to continental scales. Hyperspectral images can detect tree canopy properties, including species identity, leaf chemistry and disease. Tree growth rates are related to these measurable canopy properties but whether growth can be directly predicted from hyperspectral data remains unknown. We used a single hyperspectral image and light detection and ranging-derived elevation to predict growth rates for 20 tropical tree species planted in experimental plots. We asked whether a consistent relationship between spectral data and growth rates exists across all species and which spectral regions, associated with different canopy chemical and structural properties, are important for predicting growth rates. We found that a linear combination of narrowband indices and elevation is correlated with standardized growth rates across all 20 tree species (R²  = 53.70%). Although wavelengths from the entire visible-to-shortwave infrared spectrum were involved in our analysis, results point to relatively greater importance of visible and near-infrared regions for relating canopy reflectance to tree growth data. Overall, we demonstrate the potential for hyperspectral data to quantify tree demography over a much larger area than possible with field-based methods in forest inventory plots.

Catastrophic Decline of World's Largest Primate: 80% Loss of Grauer's Gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) Population Justifies Critically Endangered Status

Grauer’s gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri), the World’s largest primate, is confined to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is threatened by civil war and insecurity. During the war, armed groups in mining camps relied on hunting bushmeat, including gorillas. Insecurity and the presence of several militia groups across Grauer’s gorilla’s range made it very difficult to assess their population size. Here we use a novel method that enables rigorous assessment of local community and ranger-collected data on gorilla occupancy to evaluate the impacts of civil war on Grauer’s gorilla, which prior to the war was estimated to number 16,900 individuals. We show that gorilla numbers in their stronghold of Kahuzi-Biega National Park have declined by 87%. Encounter rate data of gorilla nests at 10 sites across its range indicate declines of 82–100% at six of these sites. Spatial occupancy analysis identifies three key areas as the most critical sites for the remaining populations of this ape and that the range of this taxon is around 19,700 km². We estimate that only 3,800 Grauer’s gorillas remain in the wild, a 77% decline in one generation, justifying its elevation to Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.

Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km(2) of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Changing gears during succession: shifting functional strategies in young tropical secondary forests

Adaptations to resource availability strongly shape patterns of community composition along successional gradients in environmental conditions. In the present study, we examined the extent to which variation in functional composition explains shifts in trait-based functional strategies in young tropical secondary forests during the most dynamic stage of succession (0-20 years). Functional composition of two size classes in 51 secondary forest plots was determined using community-weighted means of seven functional traits, which were intensively measured on 55 woody plant species (n = 875-1,761 individuals). Along the successional gradient in forest structure, there was a significant and consistent shift in functional strategies from resource acquisition to resource conservation. Leaf toughness and adult plant size increased significantly, while net photosynthetic capacity (A(mass)) decreased significantly during succession. Shifts in functional strategies within size classes for A(mass) and wood density also support the hypothesis that changes in functional composition are shaped by environmental conditions along successional gradients. In general, 'hard' functional traits, e.g., A(mass) and leaf toughness, linked to different facets of plant performance exhibited greater sensitivity to successional changes in forest structure than 'soft' traits, such as leaf mass area and leaf dry matter content. Our results also suggested that stochastic processes related to previous land-use history, dispersal limitation, and abiotic factors explained variation in functional composition beyond that attributed to deterministic shifts in functional strategies. Further data on seed dispersal vectors and distance and landscape configuration are needed to improve current mechanistic models of succession in tropical secondary forests.

Succession of ephemeral secondary forests and their limited role for the conservation of floristic diversity in a human-modified tropical landscape

Both local- and landscape-scale processes drive succession of secondary forests in human-modified tropical landscapes. Nonetheless, until recently successional changes in composition and diversity have been predominantly studied at the patch level. Here, we used a unique dataset with 45 randomly selected sites across a mixed-use tropical landscape in central Panama to study forest succession simultaneously on local and landscape scales and across both life stages (seedling, sapling, juvenile and adult trees) and life forms (shrubs, trees, lianas, and palms). To understand the potential of these secondary forests to conserve tree species diversity, we also evaluated the diversity of species that can persist as viable metapopulations in a dynamic patchwork of short-lived successional forests, using different assumptions about the average relative size at reproductive maturity. We found a deterministic shift in the diversity and composition of the local plant communities as well as the metacommunity, driven by variation in the rate at which species recruited into and disappeared from the secondary forests across the landscape. Our results indicate that dispersal limitation and the successional niche operate simultaneously and shape successional dynamics of the metacommunity of these early secondary forests. A high diversity of plant species across the metacommunity of early secondary forests shows a potential for restoration of diverse forests through natural succession, when trees and fragments of older forests are maintained in the agricultural matrix and land is abandoned or set aside for a long period of time. On the other hand, during the first 32 years the number of species with mature-sized individuals was a relatively small and strongly biased sub-sample of the total species pool. This implies that ephemeral secondary forests have a limited role in the long-term conservation of tree species diversity in human-modified tropical landscapes.

Key role of symbiotic dinitrogen fixation in tropical forest secondary succession

Forests contribute a significant portion of the land carbon sink, but their ability to sequester CO2 may be constrained by nitrogen, a major plant-limiting nutrient. Many tropical forests possess tree species capable of fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (N2), but it is unclear whether this functional group can supply the nitrogen needed as forests recover from disturbance or previous land use, or expand in response to rising CO2 (refs 6, 8). Here we identify a powerful feedback mechanism in which N2 fixation can overcome ecosystem-scale deficiencies in nitrogen that emerge during periods of rapid biomass accumulation in tropical forests. Over a 300-year chronosequence in Panama, N2-fixing tree species accumulated carbon up to nine times faster per individual than their non-fixing neighbours (greatest difference in youngest forests), and showed species-specific differences in the amount and timing of fixation. As a result of fast growth and high fixation, fixers provided a large fraction of the nitrogen needed to support net forest growth (50,000 kg carbon per hectare) in the first 12 years. A key element of ecosystem functional diversity was ensured by the presence of different N2-fixing tree species across the entire forest age sequence. These findings show that symbiotic N2 fixation can have a central role in nitrogen cycling during tropical forest stand development, with potentially important implications for the ability of tropical forests to sequester CO2.

The prognostic significance of the biomarker p16 in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

AIMS

There is an increasing incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell cancers (OPSCC) mostly associated with favourable outcomes. p16 immunohistochemistry is a surrogate marker for HPV positivity in OPSCC. The prognostic strength of p16 over traditional prognostic factors is not fully characterised. In this study, we evaluated the clinical and demographic differences between p16-positive and -negative OPSCC and characterised its prognostic strength versus traditional prognostic factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded blocks and clinical information from 217 OPSCC patients, treated with radiotherapy (alone or in combination with other therapies) between 2000 and 2010 were collected retrospectively. Immunohistochemistry for p16 protein was carried out; cancer-specific survival (CSS), recurrence-free survival (RFS) and locoregional control (LRC) were calculated for both univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Ninety-two per cent of the OPSCC originated from tonsil and tongue base sites, 61% were p16 positive. Patients with p16-positive OPSCC were younger (P < 0.0001), with lower alcohol (P = 0.0002) and tobacco (P = 0.0001) exposure. The tumours were less differentiated (P = 0.0069), had a lower T stage (P = 0.0027), higher nodal status (P = 0.014) and higher American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) prognostic group (P = 0.0036). AJCC prognostic group was significant for RFS (P = 0.0096) and CSS (P = 0.018) in patients with p16-negative OPSCC, but not those with p16-positive tumours (P = 0.30 and 0.54). Other significant factors for CSS and RFS in univariate analysis were: pretreatment haemoglobin (P < 0.0001 and <0.0001), chemoradiotherapy (P = 0.005 and 0.03) and P16 status (P < 0.0001 and 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, p16 positivity was the strongest independent prognostic variable for both CSS, RFS and LRC (P < 0.0001, hazard ratio 4.15; 95% confidence interval 2.43-7.08), (P < 0.0001, hazard ratio 6.15; 95% confidence interval 3.57-10.61) and (P = 0.001, hazard ratio 3.74; confidence interval 1.76-7.95).

CONCLUSION

This study shows that p16 is the single most important prognostic variable in OPSCC, surpassing traditional prognostic factors for both CSS and RFS. Furthermore, disease stage has no prognostic significance in p16-positive patients, highlighting the need for routine p16 assessment in OPSCC.

High-fidelity national carbon mapping for resource management and REDD+

BACKGROUND

High fidelity carbon mapping has the potential to greatly advance national resource management and to encourage international action toward climate change mitigation. However, carbon inventories based on field plots alone cannot capture the heterogeneity of carbon stocks, and thus remote sensing-assisted approaches are critically important to carbon mapping at regional to global scales. We advanced a high-resolution, national-scale carbon mapping approach applied to the Republic of Panama - one of the first UN REDD + partner countries.

RESULTS

Integrating measurements of vegetation structure collected by airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) with field inventory plots, we report LiDAR-estimated aboveground carbon stock errors of ~10% on any 1-ha land parcel across a wide range of ecological conditions. Critically, this shows that LiDAR provides a highly reliable replacement for inventory plots in areas lacking field data, both in humid tropical forests and among drier tropical vegetation types. We then scale up a systematically aligned LiDAR sampling of Panama using satellite data on topography, rainfall, and vegetation cover to model carbon stocks at 1-ha resolution with estimated average pixel-level uncertainty of 20.5 Mg C ha-1 nationwide.

CONCLUSIONS

The national carbon map revealed strong abiotic and human controls over Panamanian carbon stocks, and the new level of detail with estimated uncertainties for every individual hectare in the country sets Panama at the forefront in high-resolution ecosystem management. With this repeatable approach, carbon resource decision-making can be made on a geospatially explicit basis, enhancing human welfare and environmental protection.

Enhanced stability of microRNA expression facilitates classification of FFPE tumour samples exhibiting near total mRNA degradation

BACKGROUND

As degradation of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples limits the ability to profile mRNA expression, we explored factors predicting the success of mRNA expression profiling of FFPE material and investigated an approach to overcome the limitation.

METHODS

Bladder (n=140, stored 3-8 years) and cervix (n=160, stored 8-23 years) carcinoma FFPE samples were hybridised to Affymetrix Exon 1.0ST arrays. Percentage detection above background (%DABG) measured technical success. Biological signal was assessed by distinguishing cervix squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC) using a gene signature. As miR-205 had been identified as a marker of SCC, precursor mir-205 was measured by Exon array and mature miR-205 by qRT-PCR. Genome-wide microRNA (miRNA) expression (Affymetrix miRNA v2.0 arrays) was compared in eight newer FFPE samples with biological signal and eight older samples without.

RESULTS

RNA quality controls (QCs) (e.g., RNA integrity (RIN) number) failed to predict profiling success, but sample age correlated with %DABG in bladder (R=-0.30, P<0.01) and cervix (R=-0.69, P<0.01). Biological signal was lost in older samples and neither a signature nor precursor mir-205 separated samples by histology. miR-205 qRT-PCR discriminated SCC from AC, validated by miRNA profiling (26-fold higher in SCC; P=1.10 × 10(-5)). Genome-wide miRNA (R=0.95) and small nucleolar RNA (R=0.97) expression correlated well in the eight newer vs older FFPE samples and better than mRNA expression (R=0.72).

CONCLUSION

Sample age is the best predictor of successful mRNA profiling of FFPE material, and miRNA profiling overcomes the limitation of age and copes well with older samples.

Exon-array profiling unlocks clinically and biologically relevant gene signatures from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour samples

Background:

Degradation and chemical modification of RNA in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples hamper their use in expression profiling studies. This study aimed to show that useful information can be obtained by Exon-array profiling archival FFPE tumour samples.

Methods:

Nineteen cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and 9 adenocarcinoma (AC) FFPE samples (10–16-year-old) were profiled using Affymetrix Exon arrays. The gene signature derived was tested on a fresh-frozen non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) series. Exploration of biological networks involved gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). Differential gene expression was confirmed using Quantigene, a multiplex bead-based alternative to qRT–PCR.

Results:

In all, 1062 genes were higher in SCC vs AC, and 155 genes higher in AC. The 1217-gene signature correctly separated 58 NSCLC into SCC and AC. A gene network centered on hepatic nuclear factor and GATA6 was identified in AC, suggesting a role in glandular cell differentiation of the cervix. Quantigene analysis of the top 26 differentially expressed genes correctly partitioned cervix samples as SCC or AC.

Conclusion:

FFPE samples can be profiled using Exon arrays to derive gene expression signatures that are sufficiently robust to be applied to independent data sets, identify novel biology and design assays for independent platform validation.

Distribution, abundance and conservation status of Grauer's gorilla

This report updates the distribution and provides abundance estimates for Grauer's gorilla Gorilla gorilla graueri across its 90,000-sq-km range. The authors divide the range of Grauer's gorilla into four regions within which they identify 11 populations and estimate a total of c. 16,900 individuals. Gorillas found in the Kahuzi-Biega lowland-Kasese region represent 86 per cent of the subspecies's total population. Further, approximately 67 per cent of known Grauer's gorillas inhabit Kahuzi-Biega, Maiko and Virunga National Parks. The eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) has an extremely high human population growth rate indicating that deforestation and wildlife use trends will continue to increase. Thus, in spite of the encouraging results of surveys to identify populations and characterize abundance, no Grauer's gorilla population should be considered safe from extirpation.

Structure and temporal dynamics of populations within wheat streak mosaic virus isolates

Variation within the Type and Sidney 81 strains of wheat streak mosaic virus was assessed by single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis and confirmed by nucleotide sequencing. Limiting-dilution subisolates (LDSIs) of each strain were evaluated for polymorphism in the P1, P3, NIa, and CP cistrons. Different SSCP patterns among LDSIs of a strain were associated with single-nucleotide substitutions. Sidney 81 LDSI-S10 was used as founding inoculum to establish three lineages each in wheat, corn, and barley. The P1, HC-Pro, P3, CI, NIa, NIb, and CP cistrons of LDSI-S10 and each lineage at passages 1, 3, 6, and 9 were evaluated for polymorphism. By passage 9, each lineage differed in consensus sequence from LDSI-S10. The majority of substitutions occurred within NIa and CP, although at least one change occurred in each cistron except HC-Pro and P3. Most consensus sequence changes among lineages were independent, with substitutions accumulating over time. However, LDSI-S10 bore a variant nucleotide (G(6016)) in NIa that was restored to A(6016) in eight of nine lineages by passage 6. This near-global reversion is most easily explained by selection. Examination of nonconsensus variation revealed a pool of unique substitutions (singletons) that remained constant in frequency during passage, regardless of the host species examined. These results suggest that mutations arising by viral polymerase error are generated at a constant rate but that most newly generated mutants are sequestered in virions and do not serve as replication templates. Thus, a substantial fraction of variation generated is static and has yet to be tested for relative fitness. In contrast, nonsingleton variation increased upon passage, suggesting that some mutants do serve as replication templates and may become established in a population. Replicated mutants may or may not rise to prominence to become the consensus sequence in a lineage, with the fate of any particular mutant subject to selection and stochastic processes such as genetic drift and population growth factors.

Contributions of genetic drift and negative selection on the evolution of three strains of wheat streak mosaic tritimovirus

Genome sequences of three Wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV) strains were compared. The Type and Sidney 81 strains of WSMV from the American Great Plains were closely related, with sequence identities of 97.6% (nucleotide) and 98.7% (amino acid). In contrast, the El Batán 3 strain from central Mexico was divergent, and shared only 79.2-79.3% (nucleotide) and 90.3-90.5% (amino acid) sequence identity with Type and Sidney 81. All three WSMV strains were serologically related, however the El Batán 3 capsid protein (CP) had 15 fewer amino acid residues. Phylogenetic analysis of the CP cistron indicated that Type, Sidney 81, and nine other American isolates of WSMV were closely related and distinct from the El Batán 3 sequence. Nucleotide substitutions among the WSMV strains were not randomly distributed across the genome with more variation within P1, HC-Pro, and CP, and less within P3. One 400-nucleotide region of the genome, corresponding to the 3'-end of P3, was strikingly deficient in silent substitutions. Nonetheless, the ratio of synonymous to non-synonymous substitutions throughout the genome was essentially the same for all three WSMV strains. Collectively, our data indicate that both genetic drift and negative selection have contributed to the evolution of WSMV strains.

Three distinct mechanisms facilitate genetic isolation of sympatric wheat streak mosaic virus lineages

Cross-protection and vector transmission bottlenecks have been proposed as mechanisms facilitating genetic isolation of sympatric viral lineages. Molecular markers were used to monitor establishment and resolution of mixed infections with genetically defined strains of wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV). Two closely related WSMV strains from the U.S. (Type and Sidney 81) exhibited reciprocal cross-protection in wheat, confirming this classic phenomenon as a mechanism of genetic isolation. In contrast, cross-protection between either U.S. strain and the divergent El Batán 3 strain from Mexico was unilateral, erratic, and only partially effective. Distribution of WSMV strains within individual leaves of plants supporting a mixed infection of Type and Sidney 81 was spatially nonuniform. Strain distribution among individual tillers of coinfected plants also was heterogeneous, with some containing either Type or Sidney 81 alone and some containing both. Transmission by wheat curl mites, acquiring virus from source plants simultaneously infected with both Type and Sidney 81, often resulted in test plants bearing only a single WSMV strain. Spatial subdivision of virus strains within coinfected plants likely contributed to vector transmission bottlenecks during acquisition. Collectively, these three distinct mechanisms enhance genetic isolation of individual viral lineages, and together with stochastic processes, may explain generation and maintenance of genetic diversity in field populations.

Tissue distribution and antitumor activity of topotecan delivered by intracerebral clysis in a rat glioma model

OBJECTIVE

Intracerebral clysis is a drug delivery technique that depends on convection-enhanced microinfusion to achieve therapeutic drug levels within the brain. In this study, brain tumor-bearing rats were treated with topotecan delivered systemically and by the intracerebral clysis method. Our objective was to determine the efficacy and tissue distribution of topotecan delivered by intracerebral clysis.

METHODS

The C6/Wistar rat glioma model was used after a thymidine incorporation assay determined topotecan sensitivity of C6 cells in vitro. Long-term survival of animals provided objective measurements of efficacy; records of animal weight during treatment and neurological status served to approximate toxicity. Topotecan tissue penetration was measured in samples of ex vivo tumor and surrounding brain tissue with high-pressure liquid chromatography.

RESULTS

Dose escalation demonstrated significant sensitivity of C6 glioma cells to topotecan (median lethal dose, 0.19 micromol/L). Eleven of 12 rats bearing established intracerebral C6 glioma and receiving topotecan by intracerebral clysis survived beyond the end point of 120 days; no untreated control or systemically treated animal survived beyond 26 days (n = 18; P < 0.005). Histopathological assessment of animals demonstrated significant tumor masses in the brains of intraperitoneally treated animals and untreated control animals. In contrast, no residual tumor was found in the brains of intracerebral clysis groups. Animal weights during treatment were markedly reduced by intraperitoneal dosing (n = 6) but not by low-dose intracerebral clysis (32 microg/kg/d for 5 d; n = 6). None of the low-dose intracerebral clysis-treated animals demonstrated neurological toxicity, and one high-dose intracerebral clysis-treated animal (160 microg/kg/d for 2 d; n = 6) died during follow-up. Topotecan was detected well beyond the boundaries of the tumor and even in the contralateral hemisphere in animals treated with intracerebral clysis.

CONCLUSION

Topotecan delivered by the intracerebral clysis method is effective for treatment of brain tumors in the rat glioma model. These studies provide compelling justification for further preclinical testing to formally evaluate toxicity and efficacy with variable dosing schedules.

Limitations of the C6/Wistar rat intracerebral glioma model: implications for evaluating immunotherapy

OBJECTIVE

Intracranial rat glioma models are a useful method for evaluating the efficacy and toxicity of novel therapies for malignant glioma. The C6/Wistar model has been used extensively as a reproducible in vivo model for studying primary brain tumors including anti-glioma immune responses. The objective of the present study is to provide in vivo evidence that the C6 rat glioma model is allogeneic within Wistar rats and is therefore inappropriate for evaluating immune responses.

METHODS

Growth patterns and immune responses of C6 cells implanted into the brain and flank of Wistar rats were analyzed and compared to an immunogenic syngeneic model (9L/Fischer).

RESULTS

Wistar rats with C6 tumors developed a potent humoral and cellular immune response to the tumor. Wistar rats given simultaneous flank and intracerebral tumors had a survival rate of 100% compared to an 11% survival rate in control animals receiving only intracranial C6 cells.

CONCLUSION

The C6 rat glioma induces a vigorous immune reaction that may mimic a specific anti-tumor response in Wistar rats. Efficacy of immunotherapy within this model must be cautiously interpreted.

Managing Medicaid managed care: are states becoming prudent purchasers?

This paper examines the extent to which five states are becoming "prudent purchasers" in their oversight of Medicaid managed care. Our conclusions are mixed. These states are making more sustained efforts along these lines than most private purchasers are and have improved the amount and quality of the data they collect on the experiences of Medicaid clients when compared with the traditional fee-for-service program. They have been less successful in ensuring data quality that is adequate to support contracting decisions and in developing the analytical or political capacity to use data to "manage" the managed care system. Becoming a prudent purchaser appears to be a complex task for states that may prove difficult to achieve.

Intracerebral clysis in a rat glioma model

OBJECTIVE

Intracerebral clysis (ICC) is a new term we use to describe convection-enhanced microinfusion into the brain. This study establishes baseline parameters for preclinical, in vivo, drug investigations using ICC in a rat glioma model.

METHODS

Intracranial pressure was measured, with an intraparenchymal fiber-optic catheter, in male Fischer rats 10, 15, 20, and 25 days after implantation of C6 glioma cells in the right frontal lobe (n = 80) and in control rats without tumor (n = 20), before and during ICC. A 25% albumin solution (100 microl) was infused through an intratumoral catheter at 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0 microl/min. Infusate distribution was assessed by infusion of fluorescein isothiocyanate-dextran (Mr 20,000), using the aforementioned parameters (n = 36). Brains were sectioned and photographed under ultraviolet light, and distribution was calculated by computer analysis (NIH Image for Macintosh). Safe effective drug distribution was demonstrated by measuring tumor sizes and apoptosis in animals treated with N,N'-bis(2-chloroethyl)-N-nitrosourea via ICC, compared with untreated controls. Magnetic resonance imaging noninvasively confirmed tumor growth before treatment.

RESULTS

Intracranial pressure increased with tumor progression, from 5.5 mm Hg at baseline to 12.95 mm Hg on Day 25 after tumor cell implantation. Intracranial pressure during ICC ranged from 5 to 21 mm Hg and was correlated with increasing infusion volumes and increasing rates of infusion. No toxicity was observed, except at the higher ends of the tumor size and volume ranges. Fluorescein isothiocyanate-dextran distribution was greater with larger infusion volumes (30 microl versus 10 microl, n = 8, P < 0.05). No significant differences in distribution were observed when different infusion rates were compared while the volume was kept constant. At tolerated flow rates, the volumes of distribution were sufficient to promote adequate drug delivery to tumors. N,N'-Bis(2-chloroethyl)-N-nitrosourea treatment resulted in significant decreases in tumor size, compared with untreated controls.

CONCLUSION

The C6 glioma model can be easily modified to study aspects of interstitial delivery via ICC and the application of ICC to the screening of potential antitumor agents for safety and efficacy.