Relationship between patient-perceived quality of primary care and self-reported hospital utilisation in China: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Reducing avoidable hospital admissions is a global healthcare priority, with optimal primary care recognised as pivotal for achieving this objective. However, in developing systems like China, where primary care is evolving without compulsory gatekeeping, the relationship between patient-perceived primary care quality and hospital utilisation remains underexplored.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the association between patient-perceived primary care quality and self-reported hospital utilisation in China.

METHODS

Data were collected from 16 primary care settings. Patient-perceived quality of primary care was measured using the Assessment Survey of Primary Care scale across six domains (first-contact care, continuity, comprehensiveness, accessibility, coordination, and patient-centredness). Hospital utilisation included patient self-reported outpatient visits, hospital admissions, and emergency department (ED) visits in the last six months. Logistic regression analyses were examined associations between self-reported hospital utilisation and perceived primary care quality adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Of 1,185 patients recruited, 398 (33.6%) reported hospital utilisation. Logistic regression analyses showed that higher total scores for patient-perceived quality of primary care were associated with decreased odds of hospital utilisation (adjusted odds ratio(AOR): 0.417, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.308-0.565), outpatient visits (AOR: 0.394, 95% CI: 0.275-0.566) and hospital admissions (AOR: 0.496, 95% CI: 0.276-0.891). However, continuity of care was positively associated with ED visits (AOR: 2.252, 95% CI: 1.051-4.825).

CONCLUSION

Enhanced patient-perceived quality of primary care in China is associated with a reduction in self-reported overall hospital utilisation, including outpatient visits and hospital admissions. However, better continuity of care may be associated with increased ED visits. Further research is warranted for precise insights and validation of these findings.

Impact of soil-atmosphere HONO exchange on concentrations of HONO and O3 in the North China Plain

Nitrous acid (HONO) is an important precursor of the hydroxyl radical (OH) and plays a vital role in atmospheric photochemistry and nitrogen cycling. Soil emissions have been considered as a potential source of HONO. Lately, the HONO emission via soil-atmosphere exchange (ESA-exchange) from soil nitrite has been validated and quantified through chamber experiments, but has not been assessed in the real atmosphere. We coupled ESA-exchange and the other seven potential sources of HONO (i.e., traffic, indoor and soil bacterial emissions, heterogeneous reactions on ground and aerosol surfaces, nitrate photolysis, and acid displacement) into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and found that diurnal variations of the soil emission flux at the Wangdu site were well simulated. During the non-fertilization period, ESA-exchange contributed ∼28 % and ∼35 % of nighttime and daytime HONO, respectively, and enhanced the net ozone (O3) production rate by ∼8 % across the North China Plain (NCP). During the preintensive/intensive fertilization period, the maximum ESA-Exchange contributions attained ∼70 %/83 % of simulated HONO in the afternoon across the NCP, definitely asserting its dominance in HONO production. ESA-Exchange enhanced the OH production rate via HONO photolysis by ∼3.5/7.0 times, and exhibited an increase rate of ∼13 %/20 % in the net O3 production rate across the NCP. The total enhanced O3 due to the eight potential HONO sources ranged from ∼2 to 20 ppb, and ESA-exchange produced O3 enhancements of ∼1 to 6 ppb over the three periods. Remarkably, the average contribution of ESA-exchange to the total O3 enhancements remained ∼30 %. This study suggests that ESA-exchange should be included in three-dimensional chemical transport models and more field measurements of soil HONO emission fluxes and soil nitrite levels are urgently required.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Racial/ethnic disparities in exposure to e-cigarette advertising among U.S. youth

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess exposure to e-cigarette advertising across multiple marketing channels among U.S. youth and to examine whether racial/ethnic disparities exist in exposure to e-cigarette advertisements.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data were drawn from a longitudinal survey of participants recruited from two nationally representative panels (NORC's AmeriSpeak® and GfK's KnowledgePanel). A total of 2043 youth aged 13-17 completed the initial 2018 survey, and 2013 youth completed the follow-up survey in 2019 (including a replenishment sample of 690 youth). Outcome variables were self-reported e-cigarette advertisement exposure in the past three months through various sources, such as television, point of sale, and online/social media. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (AOR) of the association between racial/ethnic identity and e-cigarette advertisement exposure.

RESULTS

The prevalence of reported exposure to e-cigarette advertisements through any channel was 79.8% (95% CI: 77.1-82.2) in 2018 and 74.9% (95% CI: 72.5-77.1) in 2019, respectively. Point of sale was the most common source of e-cigarette advertisement exposure in both years. Non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic Asian youth were more likely to report exposure to e-cigarette advertisements through television (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.44-2.99 and AOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.17-3.82, respectively) and online/social media (AOR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.11-2.33 and AOR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.10-3.59, respectively) channels compared with non-Hispanic White youth.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of U.S. youth reported exposure to e-cigarette advertising through a variety of marketing channels. Significant racial/ethnic disparities existed, with non-Hispanic Black and Asian youth reporting more marketing exposure than their non-Hispanic White counterparts.

Associations of obesity indices change with cardiovascular outcomes: a dose-response meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the degrees and shapes of associations of changes in obesity indices with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risks. We aimed to conduct a dose-response meta-analysis for the associations of changes in weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio, and waist-to-height ratio with CVD events, CVD-specific deaths, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE via OvidSP, Embase via OvidSP, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Scopus for articles published before January 8th, 2023. Dose-response relationships were modeled using the one-stage mixed-effects meta-analysis. Random-effects models were used to pool the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

We included 122 articles. Weight change was negatively associated with deaths from CVD and any cause, while WC change elevated CVD-specific mortality. Non-linear relationships also confirmed the adverse effects of increased WC on CVD-specific mortality. Additionally, gains of 5 kg in weight and 1 kg/m2 in BMI or more were associated with elevated CVD events, especially among young adults and individuals without CVD. Conversely, reductions of 5 kg in weight and 1 kg/m2 in BMI or more were associated with higher CVD-specific and all-cause deaths than increased counterparts, particularly among old adults and individuals with CVD. Similar non-linear relationships between relative changes in weight and BMI and deaths from CVD and any cause were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of changes in weight and BMI on CVD outcomes were affected by age and cardiovascular health. Tailored weight management and avoidance of increased WC should be recommended.

A prospective cohort study exploring the impact of tonsillectomy on feeding difficulties in children

OBJECTIVES

Paediatric feeding difficulties are common, affecting up to 25% of otherwise healthy children, symptoms include food refusal, gagging, choking, and excessive mealtime duration. These symptoms are commonly described in pre-operative discussions about tonsillectomy. This prospective study explores the impact of tonsillectomy on paediatric feeding difficulties.

DESIGN

This prospective cohort study invited caregivers of children undergoing tonsillectomy to complete a PediEAT questionnaire about their children's feeding behaviours, pre and post-operatively. The study was completed in two phases with 9 questions administered in phase 1 and three additional questions added for phase 2. A free text comments box was also provided. Responses were graded from 0 to 5, where 0 is 'never a problem' and 5 is 'always a problem' with eating behaviours.

SETTING

The study was conducted at our institution, a tertiary paediatric ENT unit.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged between 6 months - 7 years undergoing tonsillectomy for any indication were invited to participate.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes to the Pedi-EAT scores pre and post operatively were the main outcome measure.

RESULTS

102 participants were recruited between January 2020 and January 2022. The mean age of participants was 4.1 years, 87% had a concurrent adenoidectomy. The mean time to completion of post-operative questionnaire was 23 weeks after surgery. 9 of the 12 questions showed a statistically significant improvement in post-operative scores using a paired student t-test (p < 0.05). The most significant improvements related to 'gets tired from eating and is not able to finish' (1.49 pre-op, 0.91 post op, p < 0.01) and 'eats food that needs to be chewed' (1.4 pre-op, 0.72 post-op, p < 0.01). 13% of participants only underwent tonsillectomy and this group also showed a statistically significant improvement in fatigue during eating (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Symptoms of fatigue during eating and avoidance of food requiring mastication are most likely to improve following tonsillectomy in children.

A high-density and high-confinement tokamak plasma regime for fusion energy

The tokamak approach, utilizing a toroidal magnetic field configuration to confine a hot plasma, is one of the most promising designs for developing reactors that can exploit nuclear fusion to generate electrical energy1,2. To reach the goal of an economical reactor, most tokamak reactor designs3-10 simultaneously require reaching a plasma line-averaged density above an empirical limit-the so-called Greenwald density11-and attaining an energy confinement quality better than the standard high-confinement mode12,13. However, such an operating regime has never been verified in experiments. In addition, a long-standing challenge in the high-confinement mode has been the compatibility between a high-performance core and avoiding large, transient edge perturbations that can cause very high heat loads on the plasma-facing-components in tokamaks. Here we report the demonstration of stable tokamak plasmas with a line-averaged density approximately 20% above the Greenwald density and an energy confinement quality of approximately 50% better than the standard high-confinement mode, which was realized by taking advantage of the enhanced suppression of turbulent transport granted by high density-gradients in the high-poloidal-beta scenario14,15. Furthermore, our experimental results show an integration of very low edge transient perturbations with the high normalized density and confinement core. The operating regime we report supports some critical requirements in many fusion reactor designs all over the world and opens a potential avenue to an operating point for producing economically attractive fusion energy.

Risk prediction of advanced colorectal neoplasia among diabetic patients: A derivation and validation study

Background and Aim

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the world. This study devises and validates a clinical scoring system for risk prediction of advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) to guide colonoscopy evaluation among diabetic patients.

Methods

We identified 55 964 diabetic patients who received colonoscopies from a large database in a Chinese population (2008-2018). We recruited a derivation cohort based on random sampling. The risk factors of CRC evaluated by univariate analysis were examined for ACN, defined as advanced adenoma, CRC, or any combination thereof using binary logistic regression analysis. We used the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for independent risk factors to devise a risk score, ranging from 0 to 6: 0-4 "average risk" (AR) and 5-6 "high risk" (HR). The other subjects acted as an independent validation cohort.

Results

The prevalence of ACN in both the derivation and validation cohorts was 2.0%. Using the scoring system constructed, 78.5% and 21.5% of patients in the validation cohort were classified as AR and HR, respectively. The prevalence of ACN in the AR and HR groups was 1.5% and 4.1%, respectively. Individuals in the HR group had a 2.78-fold increased prevalence of ACN than the AR group. The concordance (c-) statistics was 0.70, implying a good discriminatory capability of the risk score to stratify high-risk individuals who should consider colonoscopy.

Conclusion

The clinical risk scoring system based on age, gender, smoking, presence of hypertension, and use of aspirin is useful for ACN risk prediction among diabetic patients.

GBDT Method Integrating Feature-Enhancement and Active-Learning Strategies-Sea Ice Thickness Inversion in Beaufort Sea

Sea ice, as an important component of the Earth's ecosystem, has a profound impact on global climate and human activities due to its thickness. Therefore, the inversion of sea ice thickness has important research significance. Due to environmental and equipment-related limitations, the number of samples available for remote sensing inversion is currently insufficient. At high spatial resolutions, remote sensing data contain limited information and noise interference, which seriously affect the accuracy of sea ice thickness inversion. In response to the above issues, we conducted experiments using ice draft data from the Beaufort Sea and designed an improved GBDT method that integrates feature-enhancement and active-learning strategies (IFEAL-GBDT). In this method, the incident angle and time series are used to perform spatiotemporal correction of the data, reducing both temporal and spatial impacts. Meanwhile, based on the original polarization information, effective multi-attribute features are generated to expand the information content and improve the separability of sea ice with different thicknesses. Taking into account the growth cycle and age of sea ice, attributes were added for month and seawater temperature. In addition, we studied an active learning strategy based on the maximum standard deviation to select more informative and representative samples and improve the model's generalization ability. The improved GBDT model was used for training and prediction, offering advantages in dealing with nonlinear, high-dimensional data, and data noise problems, further expanding the effectiveness of feature-enhancement and active-learning strategies. Compared with other methods, the method proposed in this paper achieves the best inversion accuracy, with an average absolute error of 8 cm and a root mean square error of 13.7 cm for IFEAL-GBDT and a correlation coefficient of 0.912. This research proves the effectiveness of our method, which is suitable for the high-precision inversion of sea ice thickness determined using Sentinel-1 data.

Individualized prevention of proton pump inhibitor related adverse events by risk stratification

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly used for gastric acid-related disorders, but their safety profile and risk stratification for high-burden diseases need further investigation. Analyzing over 2 million participants from five prospective cohorts from the US, the UK, and China, we found that PPI use correlated with increased risk of 15 leading global diseases, such as ischemic heart disease, diabetes, respiratory infections, and chronic kidney disease. These associations showed dose-response relationships and consistency across different PPI types. PPI-related absolute risks increased with baseline risks, with approximately 82% of cases occurring in those at the upper 40% of the baseline predicted risk, and only 11.5% of cases occurring in individuals at the lower 50% of the baseline risk. While statistical association does not necessarily imply causation, its potential safety concerns suggest that personalized use of PPIs through risk stratification might guide appropriate decision-making for patients, clinicians, and the public.

Colloidal Zeta Potential Modulation as a Handle to Control the Crystallization Kinetics of Tin Halide Perovskites for Photovoltaic Applications

Tin halide perovskites (THPs) have demonstrated exceptional potential for various applications owing to their low toxicity and excellent optoelectronic properties. However, the crystallization kinetics of THPs are less controllable than its lead counterpart because of the higher Lewis acidity of Sn2+, leading to THP films with poor morphology and rampant defects. Here, a colloidal zeta potential modulation approach is developed to improve the crystallization kinetics of THP films inspired by the classical Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory. After adding 3-aminopyrrolidine dihydro iodate (APDI2) in the precursor solution to change the zeta potential of the pristine colloids, the total interaction potential energy between colloidal particles with APDI2 could be controllably reduced, resulting in a higher coagulation probability and a lower critical nuclei concentration. In situ laser light scattering measurements confirmed the increased nucleation rate of the THP colloids with APDI2. The resulting film with APDI2 shows a pinhole-free morphology with fewer defects, achieving an impressive efficiency of 15.13 %.

Mucosal immune responses and protective efficacy elicited by oral administration AMP-ZnONPs-adjuvanted inactivated H9N2 virus in chickens

The avian influenza virus is infected through the mucosal route, thus mucosal barrier defense is very important. While the inactivated H9N2 vaccine cannot achieve sufficient mucosal immunity, adjuvants are needed to induce mucosal and systemic immunity to prevent poultry from H9N2 influenza virus infection. Our previous study found that polysaccharide from Atractylodes macrocephala Koidz binding with zinc oxide nanoparticles (AMP-ZnONPs) had immune-enhancing effects in vitro. This study aimed to evaluate the mucosal immune responses of oral whole-inactivated H9N2 virus (WIV)+AMP-ZnONPs and its impact on the animal challenge protection, and the corresponding changes of pulmonary metabolomics after the second immunization. The results showed that compared to the WIV, the combined treatment of WIV and AMP-ZnONPs significantly enhanced the HI titer, IgG and specific sIgA levels, the number of goblet cells and intestinal epithelial lymphocytes (iIELs) as well as the expression of J-chain, polymeric immunoglobulin receptor (pIgR), interleukin-10 (IL-10), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β). In viral attack experiments, WIV combing with AMP-ZnONPs effectively reduced lung damage and viral titers in throat swabs. Interestingly, significant changes of both the IgA intestinal immune network and PPAR pathway could also be found in the WIV+AMP-ZnONPs group compared to the non-infected group. Taken together, these findings suggest that AMP-ZnONPs can serve as a potential mucosal vaccine adjuvant, thereby avoiding adverse stress and corresponding costs caused by vaccine injection.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The association between organised colorectal cancer screening strategies and reduction of its related mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To assess the long-term association between organised colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies and CRC-relate mortality.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies on organised CRC screening through PubMed, Ovid Medline, Embase and Cochrane from the inception. We retrieved characteristics of organised CRC screening from included literature and matched mortality (over 50 years) of those areas from the International Agency for Research on Cancer in May 2023. The variations of mortality were reported via the age-standardised mortality ratio. A random-effects model was used to synthesis results.

RESULTS

We summarised 58 organised CRC screening programmes and recorded > 2.7 million CRC-related deaths from 22 countries where rollout screening programmes were performed. The CRC screening strategy with faecal tests (guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) or faecal immunochemical tests (FIT)) or colonoscopy as the primary screening offer was associated with a 41.8% reduction in mortality, which was higher than those offered gFOBT (4.4%), FIT (16.7%), gFOBT or FIT (16.2%), and faecal tests (gFOBT or FIT) or flexible sigmoidoscopy (16.7%) as primary screening test. The longer duration of screening was associated with a higher reduction in the pooled age-standardised mortality ratio. In particular, the pooled age-standardised mortality ratio became non-significant when the screening of FIT was implemented for less than 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A CRC screening programme running for > 5 years was associated with a reduction of CRC-related mortality. Countries with a heavy burden of CRC should implement sustainable, organised screening providing a choice between faecal tests and colonoscopy as a preferred primary test.

Automated molecular structure segmentation from documents using ChemSAM

Chemical structure segmentation constitutes a pivotal task in cheminformatics, involving the extraction and abstraction of structural information of chemical compounds from text-based sources, including patents and scientific articles. This study introduces a deep learning approach to chemical structure segmentation, employing a Vision Transformer (ViT) to discern the structural patterns of chemical compounds from their graphical representations. The Chemistry-Segment Anything Model (ChemSAM) achieves state-of-the-art results on publicly available benchmark datasets and real-world tasks, underscoring its effectiveness in accurately segmenting chemical structures from text-based sources. Moreover, this deep learning-based approach obviates the need for handcrafted features and demonstrates robustness against variations in image quality and style. During the detection phase, a ViT-based encoder-decoder model is used to identify and locate chemical structure depictions on the input page. This model generates masks to ascertain whether each pixel belongs to a chemical structure, thereby offering a pixel-level classification and indicating the presence or absence of chemical structures at each position. Subsequently, the generated masks are clustered based on their connectivity, and each mask cluster is updated to encapsulate a single structure in the post-processing workflow. This two-step process facilitates the effective automatic extraction of chemical structure depictions from documents. By utilizing the deep learning approach described herein, it is demonstrated that effective performance on low-resolution and densely arranged molecular structural layouts in journal articles and patents is achievable.

Exploring the clinical significance of IL-38 correlation with PD-1, CTLA-4, and FOXP3 in colorectal cancer draining lymph nodes

Introduction

Colorectal cancer (CRC) presents a substantial challenge characterized by unacceptably high mortality and morbidity, primarily attributed to delayed diagnosis and reliance on palliative care. The immune response of the host plays a pivotal role in carcinogenesis, with IL-38 emerging as a potential protective factor in CRC. However, the precise involvement of IL-38 among various leucocytes, its interactions with PD-1/PD-L1, and its impact on metastasis require further elucidation.

Results

Our investigation revealed a significant correlation between IL-38 expression and metastasis, particularly concerning survival and interactions among diverse leucocytes within draining lymph nodes. In the mesentery lymph nodes, we observed an inverse correlation between IL-38 expression and stages of lymph node invasions (TNM), invasion depth, distance, and differentiation. This aligns with an overall survival advantage associated with higher IL-38 expression in CRC patients' nodes compared to lower levels, as well as elevated IL-38 expression on CD4+ or CD8+ cells. Notably, a distinct subset of patients characterized by IL-38high/PD-1low expression exhibited superior survival outcomes compared to other combinations.

Discussion

Our findings demonstrate that IL-38 expression in colorectal regional nodes from CRC patients is inversely correlated with PD-1/PD-L1 but positively correlated with infiltrating CD4+ or CD8+ lymphocytes. The combined assessment of IL-38 and PD-1 expression in colorectal regional nodes emerges as a promising biomarker for predicting the prognosis of CRC.

CD64 plays a key role in diabetic wound healing

Introduction

Wound healing poses a clinical challenge in diabetes mellitus (DM) due to compromised host immunity. CD64, an IgG-binding Fcgr1 receptor, acts as a pro-inflammatory mediator. While its presence has been identified in various inflammatory diseases, its specific role in wound healing, especially in DM, remains unclear.

Objectives

We aimed to investigate the involvement of CD64 in diabetic wound healing using a DM animal model with CD64 KO mice.

Methods

First, we compared CD64 expression in chronic skin ulcers from human DM and non-DM skin. Then, we monitored wound healing in a DM mouse model over 10 days, with or without CD64 KO, using macroscopic and microscopic observations, as well as immunohistochemistry.

Results

CD64 expression was significantly upregulated (1.25-fold) in chronic ulcerative skin from DM patients compared to non-DM individuals. Clinical observations were consistent with animal model findings, showing a significant delay in wound healing, particularly by day 7, in CD64 KO mice compared to WT mice. Additionally, infiltrating CD163+ M2 macrophages in the wounds of DM mice decreased significantly compared to non-DM mice over time. Delayed wound healing in DM CD64 KO mice correlated with the presence of inflammatory mediators.

Conclusion

CD64 seems to play a crucial role in wound healing, especially in DM conditions, where it is associated with CD163+ M2 macrophage infiltration. These data suggest that CD64 relies on host immunity during the wound healing process. Such data may provide useful information for both basic scientists and clinicians to deal with diabetic chronic wound healing.

Mechanism study of cross presentation of exogenous antigen induced by cholera toxin-like chimeric protein

Tumor subunit vaccines have great potential in personalized cancer immunotherapy. They are usually administered with adjuvant owing to their low immunogenicity. Cholera toxin (CT) is a biological adjuvant with diverse biological functions and a long history of use. Our earlier study revealed that a CT-like chimeric protein co-delivered with murine granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor (mGM-CSF) and prostate cancer antigen epitope could co-stimulate dendritic cells (DCs) and enhance cross presentation of tumor epitope. To further study the molecular mechanism of CT-like chimeric protein in cross presentation, major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC I)-restricted epitope 257-264 of ovalbumin (OVAT) was used as a model antigen peptide in this study. Recombinant A subunit and pentameric B subunit of CT protein were respectively genetically constructed and purified. Then both assembled into AB5 chimeric protein in vitro. Three different chimeric biomacromolecules containing mGM-CSF and OVAT were constructed according to the different fusion sites and whether the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) retention sequence was included. It was found that A2 domain and B subunit of CT were both available for loading epitopes and retaining GM1 affinity. The binding activity of GM1 was positively correlated with antigen endocytosis. Once internalized, DCs became mature and cross-presented antigen. KDEL helped the whole molecule to be retained in the ER, and this improved the cross presentation of antigen on MHC I molecules. In conclusion, hexameric CT-like chimeric protein with dual effects of GM1 affinity and ER retention sequence were potential in improvement of cross presentation. The results laid a foundation for designing personalized tumor vaccine based on CT-like chimeric protein molecular structure.

Adaptive Time-Frequency Segment Optimization for Motor Imagery Classification

Motor imagery (MI)-based brain-computer interface (BCI) has emerged as a crucial method for rehabilitating stroke patients. However, the variability in the time-frequency distribution of MI-electroencephalography (EEG) among individuals limits the generalizability of algorithms that rely on non-customized time-frequency segments. In this study, we propose a novel method for optimizing time-frequency segments of MI-EEG using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Additionally, we apply a correlation-based channel selection (CCS) method that considers the correlation coefficient of features between each pair of EEG channels. Subsequently, we utilize a regularized common spatial pattern method to extract effective features. Finally, a support vector machine is employed for signal classification. The results on three BCI datasets confirmed that our algorithm achieved better accuracy (99.11% vs. 94.00% for BCI Competition III Dataset IIIa, 87.70% vs. 81.10% for Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences dataset, and 87.94% vs. 81.97% for BCI Competition IV Dataset 1) compared to algorithms with non-customized time-frequency segments. Our proposed algorithm enables adaptive optimization of EEG time-frequency segments, which is crucial for the development of clinically effective motor rehabilitation.

Factors associated with consuming unhealthy food in school children: A population-based study from Hong Kong

Background and Aims

Unhealthy diets were found to be the main contributor to the overweight problem among adolescents. In this study, we aim to identify the factors causing unhealthy eating habits in adolescents.

Methods

School-aged children and adolescents participated in this cross-sectional observational study with additional school and parental consent. A self-administered survey was conducted by 30 primary schools and 25 secondary schools. Participants were asked about the frequency of consuming unhealthy food and the types of unhealthy food consumed. A descriptive analysis was performed to demonstrate the proportions of characteristics. The prevalence of the outcome among participants of various factors was also analyzed using separate binary regression models.

Results

A total of 4884 responses were collected. Among primary school students (grade 4, mean age: 10.06), people who (1) were actively gaining weight (aOR: 1.651, 95% CI 1.006-2.708, p = 0.047), (2) went to bed after 11 p.m. (aOR: 1.652, 95% CI 1.065-2.563, p = 0.025), (3) had more than 2 h of gaming (aOR: 2.833, 95% CI 1.913-4.195, p < 0.001), (4) suffered from self-report depressive symptoms (aOR: 1.753, 95% CI 1.233-2.493, p = 0.002) was more likely to consume unhealthy food. As for secondary school students (grade 3, mean age: 15.28), (1) males (aOR: 1.266, 95% CI 1.0004-1.601, p = 0.0496), (2) average-to-high socioeconomic status (Average: aOR: 1.471, 95% CI 1.115-1.941, p = 0.006; High: aOR: 2.253, 95% CI 1.585-3.202. p < 0.001), (3) having more than 2 h of gaming (aOR: 1.342, 95% CI 1.069-1.685, p = 0.011), (4) suffering from psychological distress (aOR: 1.395, 95% CI 1.051-1.852, p = 0.021) were associated with the increased odds of consuming unhealthy food.

Conclusion

Several lifestyle and health factors were significantly associated with unhealthy eating behaviors in school-aged children and adolescents in Hong Kong, sharing similarities with many other countries. In conjunction with implementing a policy that addresses factors for unhealthy eating habits, further research should investigate potential interventions targeting these factors to ultimately tackle the overweight and obesity concern for children and adolescents in Hong Kong.

Upregulation of CoQ shifts ferroptosis dependence from GPX4 to FSP1 in acquired radioresistance

Acquired radioresistance is the primary contributor to treatment failure of radiotherapy, with ferroptosis is identified as a significant mechanism underlying cell death during radiotherapy. Although resistance to ferroptosis has been observed in both clinical samples of radioresistant cells and cell models, its mechanism remains unidentified. Herein, our investigation revealed that radioresistant cells exhibited greater tolerance to Glutathione Peroxidase 4 (GPX4) inhibitors and, conversely, increased sensitivity to ferroptosis suppressor protein 1 (FSP1) inhibitors compared to their sensitive counterparts. This observation suggested that FSP1 might play a dominant role in the development of radioresistance. Notably, the knockout of FSP1 demonstrated considerably superior efficacy in resensitizing cells to radiotherapy compared to the knockout of GPX4. To elucidate the driving force behind this functional shift, we conducted a metabolomic assay, which revealed an upregulation of Coenzyme Q (CoQ) synthesis and a downregulation of glutathione synthesis in the acquired radioresistance cells. Mechanistically, CoQ synthesis was found to be supported by aarF domain containing kinase 3-mediated phosphorylation of CoQ synthases, while the downregulation of Solute carrier family 7 member 11 led to decreased glutathione synthesis. Remarkably, our retrospective analysis of clinical response data further validated that the additional administration of statin during radiotherapy, which could impede CoQ production, effectively resensitized radioresistant cells to radiation. In summary, our findings demonstrate a dependency shift from GPX4 to FSP1 driven by altered metabolite synthesis during the acquisition of radioresistance. Moreover, we provide a promising therapeutic strategy for reversing radioresistance by inhibiting the FSP1-CoQ pathway.

Risk prediction of bladder cancer among person with diabetes: A derivation and validation study

AIMS

This study aimed to devise and validate a clinical scoring system for risk prediction of bladder cancer to guide urgent cystoscopy evaluation among people with diabetes.

METHODS

People with diabetes who received cystoscopy from a large database in the Chinese population (2009-2018). We recruited a derivation cohort based on random sampling from 70% of all individuals. We used the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for independent risk factors to devise a risk score, ranging from 0 to 5: 0-2 'average risk' (AR) and 3-5 'high risk' (HR).

RESULTS

A total of 5905 people with diabetes, among whom 123 people with BCa were included. The prevalence rate in the derivation (n  = 4174) and validation cohorts (n  = 1731) was 2.2% and 1.8% respectively. Using the scoring system constructed, 79.6% and 20.4% in the derivation cohort were classified as AR and HR respectively. The prevalence rate in the AR and HR groups was 1.57% and 4.58% respectively. The risk score consisted of age (18-70: 0; >70: 2), male sex (1), ever/ex-smoker (1) and duration of diabetes (≥10 years: 1). Individuals in the HR group had 3.26-fold (95% CI = 1.65-6.44, p  = 0.025) increased prevalence of bladder than the AR group. The concordance (c-) statistics was 0.72, implying a good discriminatory capability of the risk score to stratify high-risk individuals who should consider earlier cystoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk prediction algorithm may inform urgency of cystoscopy appointments, thus allowing a more efficient use of resources and contributing to early detection of BCa among people planned to be referred.

Discovery of 2,4-diarylaminopyrimidine derivatives bearing sulfonamide moiety as novel FAK inhibitors

Two series of 2,4-diarylaminopyrimidine derivatives containing sulfonamide moiety were designed and synthesized for screening as inhibitors of focal adhesion kinase (FAK). Most compounds significantly inhibited the enzymatic activities of FAK, and the best compound was 7b (IC50 = 0.27 nM). A majority of aminoethyl sulfonamide derivatives could effectively inhibit the proliferation of human cancer cell lines (HCT116, A549, MDA-MB-231 and Hela) expressing high levels of FAK. Particularly, compounds 7b, 7c, and 7o exhibited more significant efficacy against all of four cancer cell lines within concentrations of 1.5 μM. Furthermore, these three compounds displayed higher selectivity of cancer cells over normal cells (SI value > 14), compared to the positive control TAE226 (SI value = 1.63). Interestingly, introduction of dithiocarbamate moiety to the aminoethyl sulfonamide derivatives can indeed improve the antiproliferative activities against A549 cells. Especially, compound 8d demonstrated most significant cytotoxicity activity against A549 cells with an IC50 value of 0.08 μM, which is 20-fold superior to parent compound 7k. Additionally, compound 7b, which display the best anti-FAK potency, can inhibit the clone formation and migration of HCT-116 cells, and cause cell cycle arrest at G2/M phase, inducing apoptosis by promoting ROS production. Overall, these results suggest that 7b is a valuable FAK inhibitor that deserves further optimization to improve its druggability.

Global Cervical Cancer Incidence by Histological Subtype and Implications for Screening Methods

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is a major global health concern, disproportionately affecting women in developing countries. Cervical cancer has two primary subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC), each with distinct characteristics and screening effectiveness. In this study, we aimed to estimate the global incidence of cervical cancer according to histological subtype to inform prevention strategies.

METHODS

Using data from population-based cancer registries, we computed the rates of SCC, AC, and other specified histology among all cervical cancer cases by country and by 5-year age group. Proportions were subsequently applied to the estimated number of cervical cancer cases from the Global Cancer Observatory 2020. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated.

RESULTS

SCC accounted for 82.72% of global cervical cancer cases, with AC contributing 12.18%. The highest SCC incidence was in Sub-Saharan Africa (29.79 per 100,000 population). The AC incidence was highest in South-Eastern Asia (3.67 per 100,000 population). Age-specific trends showed SCC peaking at approximately age 55 years and AC plateauing after age 45 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided a comprehensive estimate of cervical cancer incidence by histological subtype. SCC remained the dominant subtype globally, whereas the incidence of AC varied across regions. These findings highlighted the need for tailored prevention strategies, especially testing for human papillomavirus to detect AC in high burden areas.

Identification of a potential antigen stimulating immune response against Vibrio parahaemolyticus infection in hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis aureus♂ × Oreochromis niloticus♀)

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) is a major pathogen that causes substantial losses in the marine fishery. With the emergence of antibiotic resistance, vaccines have become the most effective approach against V. parahaemolyticus infection. Adhesion factors on the cell surface are pivotal in the colonization and pathogenesis of V. parahaemolyticus within the host, highlighting their potential as vaccine candidates. This study aims to assess the immunogenicity and potential of recombinant V. parahaemolyticus MAM7 (rMAM7) as a vaccine candidate. Initially, we cloned and purified the MAM7 protein of V. parahaemolyticus. Moreover, after 4 weeks of vaccination, the fish were challenged with V. parahaemolyticus. rMAM7 demonstrated a certain protective effect. Immunological analysis revealed that rMAM7 immunization-induced antibody production and significantly increased acid phosphatase (ACP) and alkaline phosphatase (AKP) activity in hybrid tilapia. Furthermore, serum bactericidal tests demonstrated a lower bacterial survival rate in the rMAM7 group compared to PBS and rTrxa. qRT-PCR results indicated that rMAM7 significantly upregulated CD4, CD8 and IgM gene expression, suggesting the induction of Th1 and Th2 responses in hybrid tilapia. Overall, these findings highlight the potential application of MAM7 from V. parahaemolyticus in the development of protein vaccines.

Global burden, risk factors, and trends of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: A worldwide analysis of cancer registries

BACKGROUND

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) accounts for 90% of all malignant lymphomas. This study aimed to evaluate the global incidence, mortality, associated risk factors, and temporal trends of NHL by sex, age, and country.

METHODS

Data from 185 countries globally were used for analysis. NHL incidence and mortality were collected via the GLOBOCAN (2020), CI5 series I-X, WHO mortality database, the Nordic Cancer Registries, and the SEER Program. The WHO Global Health Observatory provided country-level, age-standardized prevalence of lifestyle and metabolic risk factors. Trends were examined and reported based on average annual percentage change (AAPC) calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. Incidence and AAPC are based on data for the last 10 years across countries.

RESULTS

Globally, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for NHL were recorded at 5.8 and 2.6 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. At country-level, NHL incidence was significantly associated with various factors, including HDI (Human Development Index), GDP per capita, prevalence of tobacco and alcohol consumption, sedentary lifestyle, obesity, hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolaemia. Rising trend in NHL incidence was observed, with the highest increase recorded in Estonia (AAPCmale  = 4.15, AAPCfemale  = 5.14), Belarus (AAPCfemale  = 5.13), and Lithuania (AAPCfemale  = 4.68). While overall NHL mortality has been decreasing, certain populations experienced increased mortality over the decade. In Thailand, AAPC for mortality was 31.28% for males and 30.26% for females. Estonia saw an AAPC of 6.46% for males, while Slovakia experienced an AAPC of 4.24% for females. Colombia's AAPC was 1.29% for males and 1.51% for females.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates a rising trend of NHL incidence over the past decade- particularly in developed countries, older males, and younger populations. Further research should investigate deeper insights into specific etiology and prognosis of NHL across subtypes, and potential contributors towards these epidemiologic trends.

Incidence, risk factors, and temporal trends of penile cancer: a global population-based study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the global disease burden and country-specific trends of penile cancer incidence by age group and investigate its associations with several factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Global Cancer Observatory database was interrogated for penile cancer incidence. The 10-year cancer incidence rates were collected from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus. The country-specific data were extracted from the World Health Organization Global Health Observatory and Global Burden of Disease databases for conducting risk factors analysis. The penile cancer incidence was presented using age-standardised rates. Its associations with various factors were examined by linear regression, while the incidence trend was estimated using joinpoint regression and presented as average annual percentage change with 95% confidence intervals in different age groups.

RESULTS

There were an estimated 36 068 new cases of penile cancer in 2020. There was a considerable geographical disparity in the disease burden of penile cancer, with South America reporting the highest incidence. Overall, alcohol drinking, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, and unsafe sex were positively associated with a higher penile cancer incidence, while circumcision was found to be a protective factor. There has been a mixed trend in penile cancer incidence overall, but an increasing trend was found among younger males.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a global variation in the penile cancer burden associated with prevalence of alcohol drinking, HIV infection, unsafe sex, and circumcision. The increasing penile cancer incidence in the younger population is worrying and calls for early detection and preventive interventions.

Imaging features and deep learning for prediction of pulmonary epithelioid hemangioendothelioma in CT images

Background

Pulmonary epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (PEH) is a rare vascular tumour, and its early diagnosis remains challenging. This study aims to comprehensively analyse the imaging features of PEH and develop a model for predicting PEH.

Methods

Retrospective and pooled analyses of imaging findings were performed in PEH patients at our center (n=25) and in published cases (n=71), respectively. Relevant computed tomography (CT) images were extracted and used to build a deep learning model for PEH identification and differentiation from other diseases.

Results

In this study, bilateral multiple nodules/masses (n=19) appeared to be more common with most nodules less than 2 cm. In addition to the common types and features, the pattern of mixed type (n=4) and isolated nodules (n=4), punctate calcifications (5/25) and lymph node enlargement were also observed (10/25). The presence of pleural effusion is associated with a poor prognosis in PEH. The deep learning model, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-0.72], has a differentiation accuracy of 100% and 74% for the training and test sets respectively.

Conclusions

This study confirmed the heterogeneity of the imaging findings in PEH and showed several previously undescribed types and features. The current deep learning model based on CT has potential for clinical application and needs to be further explored in the future.

[Clinical and genetic analysis of a patient with HUPRA syndrome due to missense variants of SARS2 gene and literature review]

Objective: To explore the clinical manifestations and genotype of an infant with hyperuricemia, pulmonary hypertension, renal failure in infancy, and alkalosis syndrome (HUPRAS). Methods: Clinical data of the patient were collected. Peripheral blood samples from the patient and his parents were acquainted for whole exome sequencing. The filtrated variants were verified by Sanger sequencing. The pathogenicity of the variants was predicted by bioinformatic tools. Results: The patient is a male infant of 6 months old, carrying two missense variants in the SARS2 allele: a paternal inherited c.1205G>A (p. Arg402His) and a maternal inherited c.680G>A (p. Arg227Gln). The two variants were in extremely low population frequencies. The pathogenetic prediction tools categorized them as deleterious. Arg402 and Arg227 were highly conserved in evolution. The variants led to changes in the hydrogen bonds and hydrophobicity of seryl-tRNA synthetase encoded by SARS2. Conclusions: c.1205G>A (p. Arg402His) and c.680G>A (p. Arg227Gln) are the possible causative variants of the HUPRA syndrome.

[Characteristics and clinical analysis of MLH1 c.463dupC gene mutation in a Lynch syndrome family]

In this study, a case of Lynch syndrome (LS) family line with a novel mutation site in the MLH1 c.463dupC gene was reported and the clinical and pathogenic genetic features of this family were analyzed. A 40-year-old female patient with colon cancer diagnosed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University on October 2, 2020 was retrospectively included. The clinical data of the family were collected and the family lineage was drawn. The family tumor history met the Amsterdam Criteria Ⅱ and the diagnostic criteria of LS in Chinese, which was a typical LS family lineage. A germline code-shift missense mutation c.463dupC in the MLH1 gene located in exon 6, a possible pathogenic variant, was detected by second-generation sequencing (NGS) in the patient. Subsequently, Sanger sequencing was performed on a total of 20 direct lineage members of the family of the MLH1 gene, 7 cases were found to harbor the mutation and included in the LS high-risk control. Follow-up to October 2023 showed that the patient had endometrial and cervical polyps, one case had colorectal cancer, and two cases had intestinal polyps, all were treated with early intervention and therapy; two cases did not show any clinical symptoms. This study is the first to report a new mutation site for the potentially pathogenic MLH1 c.463dupC, providing a rationale for the pathogenicity of the mutation and standardized health management for familial carriers.

Population structure and adaptability analysis of Schizothorax o'connori based on whole-genome resequencing

BACKGROUND

Schizothorax o'connori is an endemic fish distributed in the upper and lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River in China. It has experienced a fourth round of whole gene replication events and is a good model for exploring the genetic differentiation and environmental adaptability of fish in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has led to changes in the river system, thereby affecting gene exchange and population differentiation between fish populations. With the release of fish whole genome data, whole genome resequencing has been widely used in genetic evolutionary analysis and screening of selected genes in fish, which can better elucidate the genetic basis and molecular environmental adaptation mechanisms of fish. Therefore, our purpose of this study was to understand the population structure and adaptive characteristics of S. o'connori using the whole-genome resequencing method.

RESULTS

The results showed that 23,602,746 SNPs were identified from seven populations, mostly distributed on chromosomes 2 and 23. There was no significant genetic differentiation between the populations, and the genetic diversity was relatively low. However, the Zangga population could be separated from the Bomi, Linzhi, and Milin populations in the cluster analysis. Based on historical dynamics analysis of the population, the size of the ancestral population of S. o'connori was affected by the late accelerated uplift of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the Fourth Glacial Age. The selected sites were mostly enriched in pathways related to DNA repair and energy metabolism.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the whole-genome resequencing analysis provides valuable insights into the population structure and adaptive characteristics of S. o'connori. There was no obvious genetic differentiation at the genome level between the S. o'connori populations upstream and downstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River. The current distribution pattern and genetic diversity are influenced by the late accelerated uplift of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the Fourth Ice Age. The selected sites of S. o'connori are enriched in the energy metabolism and DNA repair pathways to adapt to the low temperature and strong ultraviolet radiation environment at high altitude.

Risk factors for inferior vena cava filter thrombosis in traumatic fracture patients with deep venous thrombosis of lower extremity: A single-center experience

OBJECTIVE

To explore the risk factors for inferior vena cava filter (IVCF) thrombus in orthopedic trauma patients who underwent filter placement with ongoing anticoagulation in clinical settings.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from fracture patients with lower extremity acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT) implanted with an IVCF admitted to Tianjin Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019. Potential risk factors, such as gender, age, diabetes, hypertension, fracture sites, thrombus location, free-floating thrombus, filter type, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and postoperative D-dimer values, were analyzed by the Chi-square test, t-test, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 662 patients were included in our study, and filter-related thrombosis was present in 67 (10.1%) patients. No significant differences were observed in age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, fracture site, free-floating thrombus, filter type, indwelling time, and postoperative D-dimer level. Thrombus location and ISS were significantly different (p < 0.05). Popliteal DVT (P-DVT) (odds ratio [OR]: 2.130, p = 0.018) and ISS (OR: 1.135, p = 0.000) were associated with filter thrombus. Patients with P-DVT were prone to a small filter thrombus (OR: 3.231, p = 0.037). From the ROC curve analysis, the diagnostic value of ISS was 24.5 and 26.5 for patients with filter and massive filter thrombus, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Thrombus location and ISS were independent risk factors for filter thrombus in patients with traumatic fractures. P-DVT had a higher potential to result in a small filter thrombus and an ISS value >26.5, which was considered a significant massive filter thrombus predictor.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dietary habits and physical activity during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: associated factors, composite outcomes in a cross-sectional telephone survey of a Chinese population, and trend analysis

INTRODUCTION

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic created many challenges for Hong Kong residents attempting to maintain healthy lifestyle habits. This study aimed to measure the prevalences of unhealthy dietary habits and physical inactivity levels in Hong Kong Chinese, identify associated factors, and conduct a time trend analysis during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A cross-sectional telephone survey was conducted in Hong Kong by simple random sampling. The survey comprised socio-demographic characteristics, clinical information, the Hong Kong Diet Score (HKDS), smoking and alcohol consumption, and a Chinese version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short Form. The composite outcome was low HKDS, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol consumption. We used 14 Health Behaviour Survey reports from 2003 to 2019 to establish a trend analysis regarding fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity level, smoking, and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

We performed 1500 complete telephone surveys with a response rate of 58.8%. Most participants were older adults (≥65 years, 66.7%), women (65.6%), and married (77.9%). The HKDS was significantly lower in men, single individuals, low-income participants, alcohol drinkers, and patients with diabetes mellitus or renal disease. Participants who were single, undergoing long-term management of medical diseases, or had diabetes or renal diseases exhibited greater likelihood of physical inactivity.

CONCLUSION

Prevalences of unhealthy lifestyle habits were high among men, single individuals, and chronic disease patients during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. The adoption of physical activity habits tended to decrease in the past two decades.

Toripalimab plus axitinib versus sunitinib as first-line treatment for advanced renal cell carcinoma: RENOTORCH, a randomized, open-label, phase III study

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors in combination with tyrosine kinase inhibitors are standard treatments for advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC). This phase III RENOTORCH study compared the efficacy and safety of toripalimab plus axitinib versus sunitinib for the first-line treatment of patients with intermediate-/poor-risk advanced RCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with intermediate-/poor-risk unresectable or metastatic RCC were randomized in a ratio of 1 : 1 to receive toripalimab (240 mg intravenously once every 3 weeks) plus axitinib (5 mg orally twice daily) or sunitinib [50 mg orally once daily for 4 weeks (6-week cycle) or 2 weeks (3-week cycle)]. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) assessed by an independent review committee (IRC). The secondary endpoints were investigator-assessed PFS, overall response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), and safety.

RESULTS

A total of 421 patients were randomized to receive toripalimab plus axitinib (n = 210) or sunitinib (n = 211). With a median follow-up of 14.6 months, toripalimab plus axitinib significantly reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 35% compared with sunitinib as assessed by an IRC [hazard ratio (HR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49-0.86; P = 0.0028]. The median PFS was 18.0 months in the toripalimab-axitinib group, whereas it was 9.8 months in the sunitinib group. The IRC-assessed ORR was significantly higher in the toripalimab-axitinib group compared with the sunitinib group (56.7% versus 30.8%; P < 0.0001). An OS trend favoring toripalimab plus axitinib was also observed (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.92). Treatment-related grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 61.5% of patients in the toripalimab-axitinib group and 58.6% of patients in the sunitinib group.

CONCLUSION

In patients with previously untreated intermediate-/poor-risk advanced RCC, toripalimab plus axitinib provided significantly longer PFS and higher ORR than sunitinib and had a manageable safety profile TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04394975.

Updated disease distributions, risk factors, and trends of laryngeal cancer: a global analysis of cancer registries

BACKGROUND

Though the laryngeal cancer only has 1% of the total cancer cases and related deaths, it is a type of head and neck cancers with the highest prevalence. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological trend of laryngeal cancer with updated data on the global distribution of the disease burden.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The incidence and mortality rate of laryngeal cancer was extracted from GLOBOCAN (2020), Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series I-X, WHO mortality database , the Nordic Cancer Registries , and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The Global Health data exchanges for the prevalence of its associated risk factors. A Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC).

RESULTS

The age-standardised rate (ASR) of laryngeal cancer incidence and mortality were 2.0 and 1.0 per 100 000 worldwide. The Caribbean (ASR=4.0) and Central and Eastern Europe (ASR=3.6) had the highest incidence and mortality rate. Incidence and risk factors associated with laryngeal cancer included tobacco usage, alcohol consumption, poor diet, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and lipid disorders. There was an overall decreasing trend in incidence, especially for males, but an increasing incidence was observed in female populations and younger subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

As overall global trends of laryngeal cancer have been decreasing, especially for the male population, this could possibly be attributed to reduced tobacco use and alcohol consumption. Decrease in mortality may be due to improved diagnostic methods and accessibility to treatment, yet disparity in trend remains potentially because of differences in the level of access to surgical care. Disparities in temporal trends across countries may require further research and exploration to determine other underlying factors influencing this.

A qualitative interview study on colorectal cancer screening in China

Background

The effectiveness of triage screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is not fully achieved in Chinese populations, mainly due to low compliance to colonoscopy follow-up. This study aimed to collect viewpoints of experts in China on ongoing screening programs and emerging screening tests for CRC, which may help to improve effectiveness of CRC screening in the country.

Methods

We conducted 15 semi-structured interviews with experts involving CRC screening in China during October to November of 2020. Interview topics included personal characteristics, work context, opinions on ongoing screening programs, challenges and opportunities in optimization of screening strategies, and prospects for CRC screening in near future. To analyze the data, we used a generic qualitative research approach inspired by grounded theory, including open, axial, and selective coding.

Results

This analysis revealed a total of 83 initial categories, 37 subcategories and 10 main categories, which included 4 core categories of current modality for CRC screening, factors influencing screening effectiveness, optimization of CRC screening modality, and prospects for development of CRC screening. The results provide insight into the factors underlying the challenges of the ongoing CRC screening programs in China: the most important concern is the low compliance to colonoscopy, followed by the low specificity of the currently-used initial tests. The experts proposed to use quantitative instead of qualitative fecal immunochemical test (FIT), and optimize risk assessment tools to improve specificity of initial tests. Regarding the emerging screening tests, 9 of 15 experts did not think that the novel techniques are good enough to replace the current tests, but can be used complementarily in opportunistic screening for CRC.

Conclusion

The viewpoints of Chinese experts suggested that use quantitative FIT or optimize risk assessment tools may help to identify high-risk individuals of CRC more accurately, improve adherence to colonoscopy, and thus fully achieve the effectiveness of screening.

Full-Scale Experimental and Field Investigations into Expansion Mechanism of Foamed Polyurethane and its Lifting Behaviors for Repair and Maintenance of Railway Slab Track Systems

Excessive settlement of the subgrade seriously reduces the service quality of slab tracks and threatens trains' running safety. While the utilization of foamed polyurethane is recognized as an effective solution, previous research on its expansion mechanism and its impact on track lifting requires further refinement. Accordingly, a series of full-scale tests, including expansion force tests on foamed polyurethane with diverse qualities and lifting tests of polyurethane grouting with varied qualities on the track structure, have been conducted. The expansion development process of foamed polyurethane is meticulously elucidated, and key expansion parameters are analyzed. Simultaneously, this research explores the lifting behavior of foamed polyurethane grouting under the slab tracks, yielding new insights into essential lifting parameters for track formation repair and maintenance. Based on the experimental data, this study proposes new empirical formulas to comprehensively describe both the expansion mechanism of foam polyurethane and its lifting behavior under the slab tracks. The outcomes of this research offer a new breakthrough for the design of lifting mechanism for maintaining slab track structures through the utilization of foam polyurethane slurry grouting, such as determining the optimal grouting quantity. In addition, these results are instrumental to the evaluation of lifting effects and service life, enhancing the circular economy of railway track systems.

Disease burden, risk factors, and temporal trends of eye cancer: A global analysis of cancer registries

BACKGROUND

This study aims to investigate the global disease burden, risk factors, and temporal trends of eye cancer by sex and age group.

METHODS

Databases including Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-XI, the Nordic Cancer Registries, the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and the WHO IARC mortality database were accessed to extract incidence and mortality data. Joinpoint regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the Average Annual Percentage Change of the incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

The age-standardised rates of eye cancer incidence and mortality were 0.49 and 0.08 globally in 2020. Higher incidence rates were observed in Sub-Saharan Africa (ASR = 4.06), Western Europe (ASR = 0.89), and Northern Europe (ASR = 0.84), but higher mortality was observed only in Sub-Saharan Africa (ASR = 1.59). Lower HDI, higher prevalence of UV exposure and lower prevalence of several lifestyle habits and metabolic syndromes were associated with higher incidence and mortality. There was an overall stable incidence trend and a decreasing mortality trend. Notably, all countries reporting decreasing trend in mortality were in the Asian or European region.

CONCLUSIONS

Although higher incidence was observed in both African and European regions, only the Sub-Saharan Africa region reported high mortality, indicating inequity in the access of healthcare and treatment resource. Higher prevalence of UV exposure was associated with both higher incidence and mortality. Education should be provided to increase the awareness of eye protection. An overall declining mortality trend was found, but it was limited to only Asian and European countries.

An improved limit on the neutrinoless double-electron capture of 36Ar with GERDA

The GERmanium Detector Array (Gerda) experiment operated enriched high-purity germanium detectors in a liquid argon cryostat, which contains 0.33% of 36 Ar, a candidate isotope for the two-neutrino double-electron capture (2ν ECEC) and therefore for the neutrinoless double-electron capture (0ν ECEC). If detected, this process would give evidence of lepton number violation and the Majorana nature of neutrinos. In the radiative 0ν ECEC of 36 Ar, a monochromatic photon is emitted with an energy of 429.88 keV, which may be detected by the Gerda germanium detectors. We searched for the 36 Ar 0ν ECEC with Gerda data, with a total live time of 4.34 year (3.08 year accumulated during Gerda Phase II and 1.26 year during Gerda Phase I). No signal was found and a 90% CL lower limit on the half-life of this process was established T 1 / 2 > 1.5 · 10 22  year.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjc/s10052-023-12280-6.

Identification of new subtypes and potential genetic signatures in triple-negative breast cancer using weighted gene co-expression network analysis

OBJECTIVE

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a heterogeneous disease with aggressive behavior and poor prognosis. Here, we used gene expression profiling to define new subtypes of TNBC, which may improve prevention and treatment through personalized medicine.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Gene expression profiles from the public datasets GSE76250, GSE61724, GSE61723, and GES76275 were subjected to co-expression analysis to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between TNBC and non-TNBC tissues. Consistency clustering was used to define TNBC subtypes, whose correlation with gene modules was analyzed. Enrichment analysis was used to identify module genes' biological functions and pathways. Single-sample gene set enrichment analysis was used to assess immune cell infiltration in the different TNBC subtypes, and the ChAMP package was used to examine methylation sites in TNBC.

RESULTS

A total of 4,958 DEGs in TNBC were identified, which showed the same expression differences across all datasets as in the dataset GSE76250 and clustered into 9 co-expression modules. TNBC samples clustered into two subtypes based on nine hub genes from the modules. Class I showed the most significant correlation with module 1, whose genes were related mainly to interleukin-1 response, while class II showed the most significant correlation with module 6, whose genes were related mainly to the transforming growth factor-β pathway. Class I was significantly enriched in cell cycle and DNA replication, and tumors of this subtype showed lower immune cell infiltration than class II tumors. Tumor infiltration by Th2 cells correlated positively with the expression of MCM10 and negatively with the expression of PREX2. A greater methylation of CIDEC, DLC1, EDNRB, EGR2 and SRPK1 correlated with better prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Class I TNBC, for which a useful biomarker is MCM10, may be associated with a worse prognosis than class II TNBC, for which PREX2 may serve as a biomarker.