OpenSAFELY: A platform for analysing electronic health records designed for reproducible research

Electronic health records (EHRs) and other administrative health data are increasingly used in research to generate evidence on the effectiveness, safety, and utilisation of medical products and services, and to inform public health guidance and policy. Reproducibility is a fundamental step for research credibility and promotes trust in evidence generated from EHRs. At present, ensuring research using EHRs is reproducible can be challenging for researchers. Research software platforms can provide technical solutions to enhance the reproducibility of research conducted using EHRs. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we developed the secure, transparent, analytic open-source software platform OpenSAFELY designed with reproducible research in mind. OpenSAFELY mitigates common barriers to reproducible research by: standardising key workflows around data preparation; removing barriers to code-sharing in secure analysis environments; enforcing public sharing of programming code and codelists; ensuring the same computational environment is used everywhere; integrating new and existing tools that encourage and enable the use of reproducible working practices; and providing an audit trail for all code that is run against the real data to increase transparency. This paper describes OpenSAFELY's reproducibility-by-design approach in detail.

Impact of long COVID on health-related quality-of-life: an OpenSAFELY population cohort study using patient-reported outcome measures (OpenPROMPT)

Background

Long COVID is a major problem affecting patient health, the health service, and the workforce. To optimise the design of future interventions against COVID-19, and to better plan and allocate health resources, it is critical to quantify the health and economic burden of this novel condition. We aimed to evaluate and estimate the differences in health impacts of long COVID across sociodemographic categories and quantify this in Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), widely used measures across health systems.

Methods

With the approval of NHS England, we utilised OpenPROMPT, a UK cohort study measuring the impact of long COVID on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL). OpenPROMPT invited responses to Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) using a smartphone application and recruited between November 2022 and October 2023. We used the validated EuroQol EQ-5D questionnaire with the UK Value Set to develop disutility scores (1-utility) for respondents with and without Long COVID using linear mixed models, and we calculated subsequent Quality-Adjusted Life-Months (QALMs) for long COVID.

Findings

The total OpenPROMPT cohort consisted of 7575 individuals who consented to data collection, with which we used data from 6070 participants who completed a baseline research questionnaire where 24.6% self-reported long COVID. In multivariable regressions, long COVID had a consistent impact on HRQoL, showing a higher likelihood or odds of reporting loss in quality-of-life (Odds Ratio (OR): 4.7, 95% CI: 3.72-5.93) compared with people who did not report long COVID. Reporting a disability was the largest predictor of losses of HRQoL (OR: 17.7, 95% CI: 10.37-30.33) across survey responses. Self-reported long COVID was associated with an 0.37 QALM loss.

Interpretation

We found substantial impacts on quality-of-life due to long COVID, representing a major burden on patients and the health service. We highlight the need for continued support and research for long COVID, as HRQoL scores compared unfavourably to patients with conditions such as multiple sclerosis, heart failure, and renal disease.

Funding

This research was supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) (OpenPROMPT: COV-LT2-0073).

Identification of patients undergoing chronic kidney replacement therapy in primary and secondary care data: validation study based on OpenSAFELY and UK Renal Registry

Objective

To validate primary and secondary care codes in electronic health records to identify people receiving chronic kidney replacement therapy based on gold standard registry data.

Design

Validation study using data from OpenSAFELY and the UK Renal Registry, with the approval of NHS England.

Setting

Primary and secondary care electronic health records from people registered at 45% of general practices in England on 1 January 2020, linked to data from the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) within the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, part of the NHS England OpenSAFELY covid-19 service.

Participants

38 745 prevalent patients (recorded as receiving kidney replacement therapy on 1 January 2020 in UKRR data, or primary or secondary care data) and 10 730 incident patients (starting kidney replacement therapy during 2020), from a population of 19 million people alive and registered with a general practice in England on 1 January 2020.

Main outcome measures

Sensitivity and positive predictive values of primary and secondary care code lists for identifying prevalent and incident kidney replacement therapy cohorts compared with the gold standard UKRR data on chronic kidney replacement therapy. Agreement across the data sources overall, and by treatment modality (transplantation or dialysis) and personal characteristics.

Results

Primary and secondary care code lists were sensitive for identifying the UKRR prevalent cohort (91.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 90.8% to 91.6%) and 92.0% (91.6% to 92.4%), respectively), but not the incident cohort (52.3% (50.3% to 54.3%) and 67.9% (66.1% to 69.7%)). Positive predictive values were low (77.7% (77.2% to 78.2%) for primary care data and 64.7% (64.1% to 65.3%) for secondary care data), particularly for chronic dialysis (53.7% (52.9% to 54.5%) for primary care data and 49.1% (48.0% to 50.2%) for secondary care data). Sensitivity decreased with age and index of multiple deprivation in primary care data, but the opposite was true in secondary care data. Agreement was lower in children, with 30% (295/980) featuring in all three datasets. Half (1165/2315) of the incident patients receiving dialysis in UKRR data had a kidney replacement therapy code in the primary care data within three months of the start date of the kidney replacement therapy. No codes existed whose exclusion would substantially improve the positive predictive value without a decrease in sensitivity.

Conclusions

Codes used in primary and secondary care data failed to identify a small proportion of prevalent patients receiving kidney replacement therapy. Codes also identified many patients who were not recipients of chronic kidney replacement therapy in UKRR data, particularly dialysis codes. Linkage with UKRR kidney replacement therapy data facilitated more accurate identification of incident and prevalent kidney replacement therapy cohorts for research into this vulnerable population. Poor coding has implications for any patient care (including eligibility for vaccination, resourcing, and health policy responses in future pandemics) that relies on accurate reporting of kidney replacement therapy in primary and secondary care data.

Comparative effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir versus sotrovimab and molnupiravir for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised high-risk patients during Omicron waves: observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

Background

Timely evidence of the comparative effectiveness between COVID-19 therapies in real-world settings is needed to inform clinical care. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir versus sotrovimab and molnupiravir in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 adult patients during Omicron waves.

Methods

With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a real-world cohort study using the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform. Patient-level primary care data were obtained from 24 million people in England and were securely linked with data on COVID-19 infection and therapeutics, hospital admission, and death, covering a period where both nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and sotrovimab were first-line treatment options in community settings (February 10, 2022-November 27, 2022). Molnupiravir (third-line option) was used as an exploratory comparator to nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, both of which were antivirals. Cox proportional hazards model stratified by area was used to compare the risk of 28-day COVID-19 related hospitalisation/death across treatment groups.

Findings

A total of 9026 eligible patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (n = 5704) and sotrovimab (n = 3322) were included in the main analysis. The mean age was 52.7 (SD = 14.9) years and 93% (8436/9026) had three or more COVID-19 vaccinations. Within 28 days after treatment initiation, 55/9026 (0.61%) COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths were observed (34/5704 [0.60%] treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and 21/3322 [0.63%] with sotrovimab). After adjusting for demographics, high-risk cohort categories, vaccination status, calendar time, body mass index and other comorbidities, we observed no significant difference in outcome risk between nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and sotrovimab users (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.48-1.63; P = 0.698). Results from propensity score weighted model also showed non-significant difference between treatment groups (HR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.45-1.52; P = 0.535). The exploratory analysis comparing nirmatrelvir/ritonavir users with 1041 molnupiravir users (13/1041 [1.25%] COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths) showed an association in favour of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (HR = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.22-0.94; P = 0.033).

Interpretation

In routine care of non-hospitalised high-risk adult patients with COVID-19 in England, no substantial difference in the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes was observed between those who received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and sotrovimab between February and November 2022, when Omicron subvariants BA.2, BA.5, or BQ.1 were dominant.

Funding

UK Research and Innovation, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab and molnupiravir for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients on kidney replacement therapy: observational study using the OpenSAFELY-UKRR and SRR databases

Background

Due to limited inclusion of patients on kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in clinical trials, the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapies in this population remains unclear. We sought to address this by comparing the effectiveness of sotrovimab against molnupiravir, two commonly used treatments for non-hospitalised KRT patients with COVID-19 in the UK.

Methods

With the approval of National Health Service England, we used routine clinical data from 24 million patients in England within the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform linked to the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) to identify patients on KRT. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of sotrovimab versus molnupiravir with regards to COVID-19-related hospitalisations or deaths in the subsequent 28 days. We also conducted a complementary analysis using data from the Scottish Renal Registry (SRR).

Results

Among the 2367 kidney patients treated with sotrovimab (n = 1852) or molnupiravir (n = 515) between 16 December 2021 and 1 August 2022 in England, 38 cases (1.6%) of COVID-19-related hospitalisations/deaths were observed. Sotrovimab was associated with substantially lower outcome risk than molnupiravir {adjusted HR 0.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17-0.71]; P = .004}, with results remaining robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. In the SRR cohort, sotrovimab showed a trend toward lower outcome risk than molnupiravir [HR 0.39 (95% CI 0.13-1.21); P = .106]. In both datasets, sotrovimab had no evidence of an association with other hospitalisation/death compared with molnupiravir (HRs ranged from 0.73 to 1.29; P > .05).

Conclusions

In routine care of non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 on KRT, sotrovimab was associated with a lower risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes compared with molnupiravir during Omicron waves.

The risk of acute kidney injury in colorectal cancer survivors: an english population-based matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer survival has improved in recent decades but there are concerns that survivors may develop kidney problems due to adverse effects of cancer treatment or complications of the cancer itself. We quantified the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) in colorectal cancer survivors compared to people with no prior cancer.

METHODS

Retrospective matched cohort study using electronic health record primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD linked to hospital data in England (HES-APC). Individuals with colorectal cancer between 1997-2018 were individually matched on age, sex, and GP practice to people with no prior cancer. We used Cox models to estimate hazard ratios for an incident hospital diagnosis of AKI in colorectal cancer survivors compared to individuals without cancer, overall and stratified by time since diagnosis adjusted for other individual-level factors (adj-HR).

RESULTS

Twenty thousand three hundred forty colorectal cancer survivors were matched to 100,058 cancer-free individuals. Colorectal cancer survivors were at increased risk of developing AKI compared to people without cancer (adj-HR = 2.16; 95%CI 2.05-2.27). The HR was highest in the year after diagnosis (adj-HR 7.47, 6.66-8.37), and attenuated over time, but there was still increased AKI risk > 5 years after diagnosis (adj-HR = 1.26, 1.17-1.37). The association between colorectal cancer and AKI was greater for younger people, men, and those with pre-existing chronic kidney disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Colorectal cancer survivors were at increased risk of AKI for several years after cancer diagnosis, suggesting a need to prioritise monitoring, prevention, and management of kidney problems in this group of cancer survivors.

Forgotten but not gone in rural South Africa: Urinary schistosomiasis and implications for chronic kidney disease screening in endemic countries

Background: Urinary schistosomiasis caused by infection with Schistosoma haematobium ( S. haematobium) remains endemic in Africa and is associated with haematuria and albuminuria/proteinuria. Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes clinical guidelines recommend evaluating proteinuria/albuminuria and glomerular filtration rate for chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis. The guidelines are informed by population data outside of Africa but have been adopted in many African countries with little validation. Our study aimed to characterise the burden of urinary schistosomiasis in rural South Africa (SA) and evaluate its relationship with markers of kidney dysfunction with implications for CKD screening. Methods: In this population-based cohort study, we recruited 2021 adults aged 20 - 79 years in the Mpumalanga Province, SA. Sociodemographic data were recorded, urinalysis performed, and serum creatinine and urine albumin and creatinine measured. Kidney dysfunction was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60ml/min/1.73m 2 and/or urine albumin-creatinine ratio >3.0mg/mmol. S . haematobium infection was determined by urine microscopy. Multivariable analyses were performed to determine relationships between S. haematobium and markers of kidney dysfunction. Results: Data were available for 1226 of 2021 participants. 717 (58.5%) were female and the median age was 35 years (IQR 27 - 47). Prevalence of kidney dysfunction and S. haematobium was 20.2% and 5.1% respectively. S. haematobium was strongly associated with kidney dysfunction (OR 8.66; 95% CI 4.10 - 18.3) and related to albuminuria alone (OR 8.69; 95% CI 4.11 - 18.8), with no evidence of an association with eGFR <90ml/min/1.73m 2 (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.05 - 3.59). Discussion: The strong association between urinary schistosomiasis and albuminuria requires careful consideration when screening for CKD. Screening for, and treatment of, schistosomiasis should be a routine part of initial work-up for CKD in S. haematobium endemic areas. Urinary schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease, remains a public health concern in the Mpumulanga province of SA.

Forgotten but not gone in rural South Africa: Urinary schistosomiasis and implications for chronic kidney disease screening in endemic countries

Background: Urinary schistosomiasis caused by infection with Schistosoma haematobium ( S. haematobium) remains endemic in Africa and is associated with haematuria and albuminuria/proteinuria. Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes clinical guidelines recommend evaluating proteinuria/albuminuria and glomerular filtration rate for chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis. The guidelines are informed by population data outside of Africa but have been adopted in many African countries with little validation. Our study aimed to characterise the burden of urinary schistosomiasis in rural South Africa (SA) and evaluate its relationship with markers of kidney dysfunction with implications for CKD screening. Methods: In this population-based cohort study, we recruited 2021 adults aged 20 - 79 years in the Mpumalanga Province, SA. Sociodemographic data were recorded, urinalysis performed, and serum creatinine and urine albumin and creatinine measured. Kidney dysfunction was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60ml/min/1.73m 2 and/or urine albumin-creatinine ratio >3.0mg/mmol. S . haematobium infection was determined by urine microscopy. Multivariable analyses were performed to determine relationships between S. haematobium and markers of kidney dysfunction. Results: Data were available for 1226 of 2021 participants. 717 (58.5%) were female and the median age was 35 years (IQR 27 - 47). Prevalence of kidney dysfunction and S. haematobium was 20.2% and 5.1% respectively. S. haematobium was strongly associated with kidney dysfunction (OR 8.66; 95% CI 4.10 - 18.3) and related to albuminuria alone (OR 8.69; 95% CI 4.11 - 18.8), with no evidence of an association with eGFR <90ml/min/1.73m 2 (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.05 - 3.59). Discussion: The strong association between urinary schistosomiasis and albuminuria requires careful consideration when screening for CKD. Screening for, and treatment of, schistosomiasis should be a routine part of initial work-up for CKD in S. haematobium endemic areas. Urinary schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease, remains a public health concern in the Mpumulanga province of SA.

Living alone and mental health: parallel analyses in UK longitudinal population surveys and electronic health records prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

People who live alone experience greater levels of mental illness; however, it is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic had a disproportionately negative impact on this demographic.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the mental health gap between those who live alone and with others in the UK prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Self-reported psychological distress and life satisfaction in 10 prospective longitudinal population surveys (LPSs) assessed in the nearest pre-pandemic sweep and three periods during the pandemic. Recorded diagnosis of common and severe mental illnesses between March 2018 and January 2022 in electronic healthcare records (EHRs) within the OpenSAFELY-TPP.

FINDINGS

In 37 544 LPS participants, pooled models showed greater psychological distress (standardised mean difference (SMD): 0.09 (95% CI: 0.04; 0.14); relative risk: 1.25 (95% CI: 1.12; 1.39)) and lower life satisfaction (SMD: -0.22 (95% CI: -0.30; -0.15)) for those living alone pre-pandemic. This gap did not change during the pandemic. In the EHR analysis of c.16 million records, mental health conditions were more common in those who lived alone (eg, depression 26 (95% CI: 18 to 33) and severe mental illness 58 (95% CI: 54 to 62) more cases more per 100 000). For common mental health disorders, the gap in recorded cases in EHRs narrowed during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

People living alone have poorer mental health and lower life satisfaction. During the pandemic, this gap in self-reported distress remained; however, there was a narrowing of the gap in service use.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Greater mental health need and potentially greater barriers to mental healthcare access for those who live alone need to be considered in healthcare planning.

First dose COVID-19 vaccine coverage amongst adolescents and children in England: an analysis of 3.21 million patients' primary care records in situ using OpenSAFELY

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination programme in England was extended to include all adolescents and children by April 2022. The aim of this paper is to describe trends and variation in vaccine coverage in different clinical and demographic groups amongst adolescents and children in England by August 2022. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, a cohort study was conducted of 3.21 million children and adolescents' records in general practice in England,  in situ and within the infrastructure of the electronic health record software vendor TPP using OpenSAFELY. Vaccine coverage across various demographic (sex, deprivation index and ethnicity) and clinical (risk status) populations is described. Results: Coverage is higher amongst adolescents than it is amongst children, with 53.5% adolescents and 10.8% children having received their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Within those groups, coverage varies by ethnicity, deprivation index and risk status; there is no evidence of variation by sex. Conclusion: First dose COVID-19 vaccine coverage is shown to vary amongst various demographic and clinical groups of children and adolescents.

Comparative effectiveness of two- and three-dose COVID-19 vaccination schedules involving AZD1222 and BNT162b2 in people with kidney disease: a linked OpenSAFELY and UK Renal Registry cohort study

Background

Kidney disease is a key risk factor for COVID-19-related mortality and suboptimal vaccine response. Optimising vaccination strategies is essential to reduce the disease burden in this vulnerable population. We therefore compared the effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules involving AZD1222 (AZ; ChAdOx1-S) and BNT162b2 (BNT) among people with kidney disease in England.

Methods

With the approval of NHS England, we performed a retrospective cohort study among people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease. Using linked primary care and UK Renal Registry records in the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, we identified adults with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease, dialysis recipients, and kidney transplant recipients. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare COVID-19-related outcomes and non-COVID-19 death after two-dose (AZ-AZ vs BNT-BNT) and three-dose (AZ-AZ-BNT vs BNT-BNT-BNT) schedules.

Findings

After two doses, incidence during the Delta wave was higher in AZ-AZ (n = 257,580) than BNT-BNT recipients (n = 169,205; adjusted hazard ratios [95% CIs] 1.43 [1.37-1.50], 1.59 [1.43-1.77], 1.44 [1.12-1.85], and 1.09 [1.02-1.17] for SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalisation, COVID-19-related death, and non-COVID-19 death, respectively). Findings were consistent across disease subgroups, including dialysis and transplant recipients. After three doses, there was little evidence of differences between AZ-AZ-BNT (n = 220,330) and BNT-BNT-BNT recipients (n = 157,065) for any outcome during a period of Omicron dominance.

Interpretation

Among individuals with moderate-to-severe kidney disease, two doses of BNT conferred stronger protection than AZ against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease. A subsequent BNT dose levelled the playing field, emphasising the value of heterologous RNA doses in vulnerable populations.

Funding

National Core Studies, Wellcome Trust, MRC, and Health Data Research UK.

Changes in COVID-19-related mortality across key demographic and clinical subgroups in England from 2020 to 2022: a retrospective cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has been shown to differently affect various demographic and clinical population subgroups. We aimed to describe trends in absolute and relative COVID-19-related mortality risks across clinical and demographic population subgroups during successive SARS-CoV-2 pandemic waves.

METHODS

We did a retrospective cohort study in England using the OpenSAFELY platform with the approval of National Health Service England, covering the first five SARS-CoV-2 pandemic waves (wave one [wild-type] from March 23 to May 30, 2020; wave two [alpha (B.1.1.7)] from Sept 7, 2020, to April 24, 2021; wave three [delta (B.1.617.2)] from May 28 to Dec 14, 2021; wave four [omicron (B.1.1.529)] from Dec 15, 2021, to April 29, 2022; and wave five [omicron] from June 24 to Aug 3, 2022). In each wave, we included people aged 18-110 years who were registered with a general practice on the first day of the wave and who had at least 3 months of continuous general practice registration up to this date. We estimated crude and sex-standardised and age-standardised wave-specific COVID-19-related death rates and relative risks of COVID-19-related death in population subgroups.

FINDINGS

18 895 870 adults were included in wave one, 19 014 720 in wave two, 18 932 050 in wave three, 19 097 970 in wave four, and 19 226 475 in wave five. Crude COVID-19-related death rates per 1000 person-years decreased from 4·48 deaths (95% CI 4·41-4·55) in wave one to 2·69 (2·66-2·72) in wave two, 0·64 (0·63-0·66) in wave three, 1·01 (0·99-1·03) in wave four, and 0·67 (0·64-0·71) in wave five. In wave one, the standardised COVID-19-related death rates were highest in people aged 80 years or older, people with chronic kidney disease stage 5 or 4, people receiving dialysis, people with dementia or learning disability, and people who had received a kidney transplant (ranging from 19·85 deaths per 1000 person-years to 44·41 deaths per 1000 person-years, compared with from 0·05 deaths per 1000 person-years to 15·93 deaths per 1000 person-years in other subgroups). In wave two compared with wave one, in a largely unvaccinated population, the decrease in COVID-19-related mortality was evenly distributed across population subgroups. In wave three compared with wave one, larger decreases in COVID-19-related death rates were seen in groups prioritised for primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, including people aged 80 years or older and people with neurological disease, learning disability, or severe mental illness (90-91% decrease). Conversely, smaller decreases in COVID-19-related death rates were observed in younger age groups, people who had received organ transplants, and people with chronic kidney disease, haematological malignancies, or immunosuppressive conditions (0-25% decrease). In wave four compared with wave one, the decrease in COVID-19-related death rates was smaller in groups with lower vaccination coverage (including younger age groups) and conditions associated with impaired vaccine response, including people who had received organ transplants and people with immunosuppressive conditions (26-61% decrease).

INTERPRETATION

There was a substantial decrease in absolute COVID-19-related death rates over time in the overall population, but demographic and clinical relative risk profiles persisted and worsened for people with lower vaccination coverage or impaired immune response. Our findings provide an evidence base to inform UK public health policy for protecting these vulnerable population subgroups.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Organ Transplants From Deceased Donors With Primary Brain Tumors and Risk of Cancer Transmission

Importance

Cancer transmission is a known risk for recipients of organ transplants. Many people wait a long time for a suitable transplant; some never receive one. Although patients with brain tumors may donate their organs, opinions vary on the risks involved.

Objective

To determine the risk of cancer transmission associated with organ transplants from deceased donors with primary brain tumors. Key secondary objectives were to investigate the association that donor brain tumors have with organ usage and posttransplant survival.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a cohort study in England and Scotland, conducted from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016, with follow-up to December 31, 2020. This study used linked data on deceased donors and solid organ transplant recipients with valid national patient identifier numbers from the UK Transplant Registry, the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (England), and the Scottish Cancer Registry. For secondary analyses, comparators were matched on factors that may influence the likelihood of organ usage or transplant failure. Statistical analysis of study data took place from October 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022.

Exposures

A history of primary brain tumor in the organ donor, identified from all 3 data sources using disease codes.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Transmission of brain tumor from the organ donor into the transplant recipient. Secondary outcomes were organ utilization (ie, transplant of an offered organ) and survival of kidney, liver, heart, and lung transplants and their recipients. Key covariates in donors with brain tumors were tumor grade and treatment history.

Results

This study included a total of 282 donors (median [IQR] age, 42 [33-54] years; 154 females [55%]) with primary brain tumors and 887 transplants from them, 778 (88%) of which were analyzed for the primary outcome. There were 262 transplants from donors with high-grade tumors and 494 from donors with prior neurosurgical intervention or radiotherapy. Median (IQR) recipient age was 48 (35-58) years, and 476 (61%) were male. Among 83 posttransplant malignancies (excluding NMSC) that occurred over a median (IQR) of 6 (3-9) years in 79 recipients of transplants from donors with brain tumors, none were of a histological type matching the donor brain tumor. Transplant survival was equivalent to that of matched controls. Kidney, liver, and lung utilization were lower in donors with high-grade brain tumors compared with matched controls.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this cohort study suggest that the risk of cancer transmission in transplants from deceased donors with primary brain tumors was lower than previously thought, even in the context of donors that are considered as higher risk. Long-term transplant outcomes are favorable. These results suggest that it may be possible to safely expand organ usage from this donor group.

Characterising the burden of chronic kidney disease among people with type 2 diabetes in England: a cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

OBJECTIVES

To describe prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), demographic and clinical characteristics, treatment patterns and rates of cardiovascular and renal complications for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) treated in routine clinical care.

DESIGN

Repeat cross-sectional study (6 monthly cross-sections) and cohort study from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019.

SETTING

Primary care data from English practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality data.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with T2D aged >18 years, at least one year of registration data.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Primary outcome was prevalence of CKD defined as chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m², and/or urinary albumin creatinine ratio ≥3 mg/mmol in the past 24 months. Secondary outcomes were prescriptions of medications of interest and clinical and demographic characteristics in the past 3 months.In the cohort study rates of renal and cardiovascular complications, all-cause mortality and hospitalisations over the study period were compared among those with and without CKD.

RESULTS

There were 574 190 eligible patients with T2D as of 1 January 2017 and 664 296 as of 31 December 2019. Estimated prevalence of CKD across the study period was stable at approximately 30%. Medication use was stable over time in people with CKD and T2D, with low use of steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (approximately 4.5% across all time points) and a low use but steady increase in use of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (from 2.6% to 6.2%). Rates of all complications were higher in those with CKD at the start of the study period, with increasing rates, with increased severity of CKD, heart failure and albuminuria.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of CKD in patients with T2D is high and associated with substantially increased rates of complications particularly in those with comorbid heart failure.

Protocol for an OpenSAFELY cohort study collecting patient-reported outcome measures using the TPP Airmid smartphone application and linked big data to quantify the health and economic costs of long COVID (OpenPROMPT)

INTRODUCTION

The impact of long COVID on health-related quality of-life (HRQoL) and productivity is not currently known. It is important to understand who is worst affected by long COVID and the cost to the National Health Service (NHS) and society, so that strategies like booster vaccines can be prioritised to the right people. OpenPROMPT aims to understand the impact of long COVID on HRQoL in adults attending English primary care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will ask people to participate in this cohort study through a smartphone app (Airmid), and completing a series of questionnaires held within the app. Questionnaires will ask about HRQoL, productivity and symptoms of long COVID. Participants will be asked to fill in the questionnaires once a month, for 90 days. Questionnaire responses will be linked, where possible, to participants' existing health records from primary care, secondary care, and COVID testing and vaccination data. Analysis will take place using the OpenSAFELY data platform and will estimate the impact of long COVID on HRQoL, productivity and cost to the NHS.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Proportionate Review Sub-Committee of the South Central-Berkshire B Research Ethics Committee has reviewed and approved the study and have agreed that we can ask people to take part (22/SC/0198). Our results will provide information to support long-term care, and make recommendations for prevention of long COVID in the future.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05552612.

First dose COVID-19 vaccine coverage amongst adolescents and children in England: an analysis of 3.21 million patients' primary care records in situ using OpenSAFELY

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination programme in England was extended to include all adolescents and children by April 2022. The aim of this paper is to describe trends and variation in vaccine coverage in different clinical and demographic groups amongst adolescents and children in England. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, a cohort study was conducted of 3.21 million children and adolescents’ records in general practice in England, in situ and within the infrastructure of the electronic health record software vendor TPP using OpenSAFELY. Vaccine coverage across various demographic (sex, deprivation index and ethnicity) and clinical (risk status) populations is described. Results: Coverage is higher amongst adolescents than it is amongst children, with 53.5% adolescents and 10.8% children having received their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Within those groups, coverage varies by ethnicity, deprivation index and risk status; there is no evidence of variation by sex. Conclusion: First dose COVID-19 vaccine coverage is shown to vary amongst various demographic and clinical groups of children and adolescents.

Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake in people with kidney disease: an OpenSAFELY cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To characterise factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake among people with kidney disease in England.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, performed with the approval of NHS England.

SETTING

Individual-level routine clinical data from 24 million people across GPs in England using TPP software. Primary care data were linked directly with COVID-19 vaccine records up to 31 August 2022 and with renal replacement therapy (RRT) status via the UK Renal Registry (UKRR).

PARTICIPANTS

A cohort of adults with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) or receiving RRT at the start of the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out was identified based on evidence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or inclusion in the UKRR.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Dose-specific vaccine coverage over time was determined from 1 December 2020 to 31 August 2022. Individual-level factors associated with receipt of a 3-dose or 4-dose vaccine series were explored via Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

992 205 people with stage 3-5 CKD or receiving RRT were included. Cumulative vaccine coverage as of 31 August 2022 was 97.5%, 97.0% and 93.9% for doses 1, 2 and 3, respectively, and 81.9% for dose 4 among individuals with one or more indications for eligibility. Delayed 3-dose vaccine uptake was associated with younger age, minority ethnicity, social deprivation and severe mental illness-associations that were consistent across CKD severity subgroups, dialysis patients and kidney transplant recipients. Similar associations were observed for 4-dose uptake.

CONCLUSION

Although high primary vaccine and booster dose coverage has been achieved among people with kidney disease in England, key disparities in vaccine uptake remain across clinical and demographic groups and 4-dose coverage is suboptimal. Targeted interventions are needed to identify barriers to vaccine uptake among under-vaccinated subgroups identified in the present study.

Trends, variation, and clinical characteristics of recipients of antiviral drugs and neutralising monoclonal antibodies for covid-19 in community settings: retrospective, descriptive cohort study of 23.4 million people in OpenSAFELY

Objective

To ascertain patient eligibility status and describe coverage of antiviral drugs and neutralising monoclonal antibodies (nMAB) as treatment for covid-19 in community settings in England.

Design

Retrospective, descriptive cohort study, approved by NHS England.

Setting

Routine clinical data from 23.4 million people linked to data on covid-19 infection and treatment, within the OpenSAFELY-TPP database.

Participants

Outpatients with covid-19 at high risk of severe outcomes.

Interventions

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (paxlovid), sotrovimab, molnupiravir, casirivimab/imdevimab, or remdesivir, used in the community by covid-19 medicine delivery units.

Results

93 870 outpatients with covid-19 were identified between 11 December 2021 and 28 April 2022 to be at high risk of severe outcomes and therefore potentially eligible for antiviral or nMAB treatment (or both). Of these patients, 19 040 (20%) received treatment (sotrovimab, 9660 (51%); molnupiravir, 4620 (24%); paxlovid, 4680 (25%); casirivimab/imdevimab, 50 (<1%); and remdesivir, 30 (<1%)). The proportion of patients treated increased from 9% (190/2220) in the first week of treatment availability to 29% (460/1600) in the latest week. The proportion treated varied by high risk group, being lowest in those with liver disease (16%; 95% confidence interval 15% to 17%); by treatment type, with sotrovimab favoured over molnupiravir and paxlovid in all but three high risk groups (Down's syndrome (35%; 30% to 39%), rare neurological conditions (45%; 43% to 47%), and immune deficiencies (48%; 47% to 50%)); by age, ranging from ≥80 years (13%; 12% to 14%) to 50-59 years (23%; 22% to 23%); by ethnic group, ranging from black (11%; 10% to 12%) to white (21%; 21% to 21%); by NHS region, ranging from 13% (12% to 14%) in Yorkshire and the Humber to 25% (24% to 25%) in the East of England); and by deprivation level, ranging from 15% (14% to 15%) in the most deprived areas to 23% (23% to 24%) in the least deprived areas. Groups that also had lower coverage included unvaccinated patients (7%; 6% to 9%), those with dementia (6%; 5% to 7%), and care home residents (6%; 6% to 7%).

Conclusions

Using the OpenSAFELY platform, we were able to identify patients with covid-19 at high risk of severe outcomes who were potentially eligible to receive treatment and assess the coverage of these new treatments among these patients. In the context of a rapid deployment of a new service, the NHS analytical code used to determine eligibility could have been over-inclusive and some of the eligibility criteria not fully captured in healthcare data. However targeted activity might be needed to resolve apparent lower treatment coverage observed among certain groups, in particular (at present): different NHS regions, ethnic groups, people aged ≥80 years, those living in socioeconomically deprived areas, and care home residents.

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab and molnupiravir for prevention of severe covid-19 outcomes in patients in the community: observational cohort study with the OpenSAFELY platform

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of sotrovimab (a neutralising monoclonal antibody) with molnupiravir (an antiviral) in preventing severe outcomes of covid-19 in adult patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the community and at high risk of severe outcomes from covid-19.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study with the OpenSAFELY platform.

SETTING

With the approval of NHS England, a real world cohort study was conducted with the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform (a secure, transparent, open source software platform for analysis of NHS electronic health records), and patient level electronic health record data were obtained from 24 million people registered with a general practice in England that uses TPP software. The primary care data were securely linked with data on SARS-CoV-2 infection and treatments, hospital admission, and death, over a period when both drug treatments were frequently prescribed in community settings.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients with covid-19 in the community at high risk of severe outcomes from covid-19, treated with sotrovimab or molnupiravir from 16 December 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

Sotrovimab or molnupiravir given in the community by covid-19 medicine delivery units.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Admission to hospital with covid-19 (ie, with covid-19 as the primary diagnosis) or death from covid-19 (ie, with covid-19 as the underlying or contributing cause of death) within 28 days of the start of treatment.

RESULTS

Between 16 December 2021 and 10 February 2022, 3331 and 2689 patients were treated with sotrovimab and molnupiravir, respectively, with no substantial differences in baseline characteristics. Mean age of all 6020 patients was 52 (standard deviation 16) years; 59% were women, 89% were white, and 88% had received three or more covid-19 vaccinations. Within 28 days of the start of treatment, 87 (1.4%) patients were admitted to hospital or died of infection from SARS-CoV-2 (32 treated with sotrovimab and 55 with molnupiravir). Cox proportional hazards models stratified by area showed that after adjusting for demographic information, high risk cohort categories, vaccination status, calendar time, body mass index, and other comorbidities, treatment with sotrovimab was associated with a substantially lower risk than treatment with molnupiravir (hazard ratio 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.33 to 0.88, P=0.01). Consistent results were found from propensity score weighted Cox models (0.50, 0.31 to 0.81, P=0.005) and when restricted to people who were fully vaccinated (0.53, 0.31 to 0.90, P=0.02). No substantial effect modifications by other characteristics were detected (all P values for interaction >0.10). The findings were similar in an exploratory analysis of patients treated between 16 February and 1 May 2022 when omicron BA.2 was the predominant variant in England.

CONCLUSIONS

In routine care of adult patients in England with covid-19 in the community, at high risk of severe outcomes from covid-19, those who received sotrovimab were at lower risk of severe outcomes of covid-19 than those treated with molnupiravir.

Studying the Long-term Impact of COVID-19 in Kids (SLICK). Healthcare use and costs in children and young people following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection: protocol for an observational study using linked primary and secondary routinely collected healthcare data from England, Scotland and Wales

INTRODUCTION

SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify those at risk of ongoing healthcare needs.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will use anonymised individual-level, population-scale national data linking demographics, comorbidities, primary and secondary care use and mortality between 1 January 2019 and 1 May 2022. SARS-CoV-2 test data will be linked from 1 January 2020 to 1 May 2022. Analyses will use Trusted Research Environments: OpenSAFELY in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales and Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 in Scotland (EAVE-II). CYP aged ≥4 and <18 years who underwent SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) testing between 1 January 2020 and 1 May 2021 and those untested CYP will be examined.The primary outcome measure is cumulative healthcare cost over 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 testing, stratified into primary or secondary care, and physical or mental healthcare. We will estimate the burden of healthcare use attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections in the 12 months after testing using a matched cohort study of RT-PCR positive, negative or untested CYP matched on testing date, with adjustment for confounders. We will identify factors associated with higher healthcare needs in the 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection using an unmatched cohort of RT-PCR positive CYP. Multivariable logistic regression and machine learning approaches will identify risk factors for high healthcare use and characterise patterns of healthcare use post infection.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the South-Central Oxford C Health Research Authority Ethics Committee (13/SC/0149). Findings will be preprinted and published in peer-reviewed journals. Analysis code and code lists will be available through public GitHub repositories and OpenCodelists with meta-data via HDR-UK Innovation Gateway.

Calibrating a network meta-analysis of diabetes trials of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor analogues and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors to a representative routine population: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Participants in randomised controlled trials (trials) are generally younger and healthier than many individuals encountered in clinical practice. Consequently, the applicability of trial findings is often uncertain. To address this, results from trials can be calibrated to more representative data sources. In a network meta-analysis, using a novel approach which allows the inclusion of trials whether or not individual-level participant data (IPD) is available, we will calibrate trials for three drug classes (sodium glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP1) receptor analogues and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitors) to the Scottish diabetes register.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Medline and EMBASE databases, the US clinical trials registry (clinicaltrials.gov) and the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (chictr.org.cn) will be searched from 1 January 2002. Two independent reviewers will apply eligibility criteria to identify trials for inclusion. Included trials will be phase 3 or 4 trials of SGLT2 inhibitors, GLP1 receptor analogues or DPP4 inhibitors, with placebo or active comparators, in participants with type 2 diabetes, with at least one of glycaemic control, change in body weight or major adverse cardiovascular event as outcomes. Unregistered trials will be excluded.We have identified a target population from the population-based Scottish diabetes register. The chosen cohort comprises people in Scotland with type 2 diabetes who either (1) require further treatment due to poor glycaemic control where any of the three drug classes may be suitable, or (2) who have adequate glycaemic control but are already on one of the three drug classes of interest or insulin.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval for IPD use was obtained from the University of Glasgow MVLS College Ethics Committee (Project: 200160070). The Scottish diabetes register has approval from the Scottish A Research Ethics Committee (11/AL/0225) and operates with Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care approval (1617-0147).

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020184174.

Utilisation and clinical outcomes of kidney transplants from deceased donors with albuminuria in the UK: a national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Urinalysis is a standard component of potential deceased kidney donor assessment in the UK. The value of albuminuria as a biomarker for organ quality is uncertain. We examined the relationship between deceased donor albuminuria and kidney utilisation, survival, and function.

METHODS

We performed a national cohort study on adult deceased donors and kidney transplant recipients between 2016 and 2020, using data from the UK Transplant Registry. We examined the influence of donor albuminuria, defined as ≥ 2 + on dipstick testing, on kidney utilisation, early graft function, graft failure, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

RESULTS

Eighteen % (1681/9309) of consented donors had albuminuria. After adjustment for confounders, kidneys from donors with albuminuria were less likely to be accepted for transplantation (74% vs 82%; OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.81). Of 9834 kidney transplants included in our study, 1550 (16%) came from donors with albuminuria. After a median follow-up of 2 years, 8% (118/1550) and 9% (706/8284) of transplants from donors with and without albuminuria failed, respectively. There was no association between donor albuminuria and graft failure (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.11). There was also no association with delayed graft function, patient survival, or eGFR at 1 or 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests reluctance in the UK to utilise kidneys from deceased donors with dipstick albuminuria but no evidence of an association with graft survival or function. This may represent a potential to expand organ utilisation without negatively impacting transplant outcomes.

Medication Holds in CKD During Acute Volume-Depleting Illnesses: A Randomized Controlled Trial of a "Sick-Day" Protocol

Rationale & Objective

Some drugs prescribed for chronic kidney disease (CKD) may become hazardous on sick days with volume depletion by increasing the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) and kidney function loss; however, the risks and benefits of their use during intercurrent illness is unknown.

Study Design

6-month pragmatic trial examining a sick-day protocol to determine if withholding prespecified drugs during a volume-depleting illness reduces the incidence AKI or kidney function loss in CKD.

Setting & Participants

315 veterans with stage 3-5 CKD, treated with a renin-angiotensin-aldosterone inhibitor blocker, diuretic, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, or metformin were randomized into the study with n = 159 and n = 156 in sick-day protocol and usual care groups, respectively.

Intervention

Sick-day protocol administered via interactive voice response system (IVRS) or usual care with 6-month follow-up.

Outcomes

The outcomes of the study are as follows: (1) Change in kidney function, (2) incidence of AKI based on International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes and ambulatory laboratory testing, (3) urgent service utilizations, and (4) sick days.

Results

The mean age was 70.1 ± 7.4 and 69.2 ± 8.1 years, with a mean baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 43.1 ± 13.1 and 43.8 ± 13.0 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 112 (70%) and 100 (64%) of participants with diabetes in the sick-day protocol and usual care groups, respectively. The mean change in GFR in the sick-day protocol and usual care groups from baseline to 6-month follow-up, adjusting for baseline GFR, was -0.71 (95% CI, -2.11 to 0.69) and -0.72 (95% CI, -2.12 to 0.68), respectively, with no significant difference, P = 0.99. Hospitalizations in the sick-day protocol and usual care groups were 11.5/100 and 8.4/100 events per person-months, respectively, with the adjusted rate ratio not significantly increased (prevalence ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.96-1.76). Participants interacted with the IVRS in 81% of expected weeks and 19 had one or more qualifying events. In 33 true sick days, participants correctly followed the protocol in only 14.

Limitations

Low incidence of sick days over the 6-month period of the study.

Conclusions

The sick-day protocol was not associated with a significant reduction in AKI episodes or kidney function loss in a high-risk CKD population. Engagement with the IVRS was high, but successful implementation of the sick-day protocol was not optimal.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT03141905.

Comparative effectiveness of ChAdOx1 versus BNT162b2 covid-19 vaccines in health and social care workers in England: cohort study using OpenSAFELY

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) covid-19 vaccines against infection and covid-19 disease in health and social care workers.

DESIGN

Cohort study, emulating a comparative effectiveness trial, on behalf of NHS England.

SETTING

Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 surveillance records available within the OpenSAFELY-TPP research platform, covering a period when the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was dominant.

PARTICIPANTS

317 341 health and social care workers vaccinated between 4 January and 28 February 2021, registered with a general practice using the TPP SystmOne clinical information system in England, and not clinically extremely vulnerable.

INTERVENTIONS

Vaccination with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 administered as part of the national covid-19 vaccine roll-out.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Recorded SARS-CoV-2 positive test, or covid-19 related attendance at an accident and emergency (A&E) department or hospital admission occurring within 20 weeks of receipt of the first vaccine dose.

RESULTS

Over the duration of 118 771 person-years of follow-up there were 6962 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 282 covid-19 related A&E attendances, and 166 covid-19 related hospital admissions. The cumulative incidence of each outcome was similar for both vaccines during the first 20 weeks after vaccination. The cumulative incidence of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection 20 weeks after first-dose vaccination with BNT162b2 was 21.7 per 1000 people (95% confidence interval 20.9 to 22.4) and with ChAdOx1 was 23.7 (21.8 to 25.6), representing a difference of 2.04 per 1000 people (0.04 to 4.04). The difference in the cumulative incidence per 1000 people of covid-19 related A&E attendance at 20 weeks was 0.06 per 1000 people (95% CI -0.31 to 0.43). For covid-19 related hospital admission, this difference was 0.11 per 1000 people (-0.22 to 0.44).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of healthcare workers where we would not anticipate vaccine type to be related to health status, we found no substantial differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or covid-19 disease up to 20 weeks after vaccination. Incidence dropped sharply at 3-4 weeks after vaccination, and there were few covid-19 related hospital attendance and admission events after this period. This is in line with expected onset of vaccine induced immunity and suggests strong protection against Alpha variant covid-19 disease for both vaccines in this relatively young and healthy population of healthcare workers.

Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and immune-modifying therapies: a nationwide cohort study in the OpenSAFELY platform

Background

The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and on immune-modifying drugs might not be fully mediated by comorbidities and might vary by factors such as ethnicity. We aimed to assess the risk of severe COVID-19 in adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and in those on immune-modifying therapies.

Methods

We did a cohort study, using OpenSAFELY (an analytics platform for electronic health records) and TPP (a software provider for general practitioners), analysing routinely collected primary care data linked to hospital admission, death, and previously unavailable hospital prescription data. We included people aged 18 years or older on March 1, 2020, who were registered with TPP practices with at least 12 months of primary care records before March, 2020. We used Cox regression (adjusting for confounders and mediators) to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the risk of COVID-19-related death, critical care admission or death, and hospital admission (from March 1 to Sept 30, 2020) in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases compared with the general population, and in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases on targeted immune-modifying drugs (eg, biologics) compared with those on standard systemic treatment (eg, methotrexate).

Findings

We identified 17 672 065 adults; 1 163 438 adults (640 164 [55·0%] women and 523 274 [45·0%] men, and 827 457 [71·1%] of White ethnicity) had immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, and 16 508 627 people (8 215 020 [49·8%] women and 8 293 607 [50·2%] men, and 10 614 096 [64·3%] of White ethnicity) were included as the general population. Of 1 163 438 adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, 19 119 (1·6%) received targeted immune-modifying therapy and 181 694 (15·6%) received standard systemic therapy. Compared with the general population, adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases had an increased risk of COVID-19-related death after adjusting for confounders (age, sex, deprivation, and smoking status; HR 1·23, 95% CI 1·20-1·27) and further adjusting for mediators (body-mass index [BMI], cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and current glucocorticoid use; 1·15, 1·11-1·18). Adults with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases also had an increased risk of COVID-19-related critical care admission or death (confounder-adjusted HR 1·24, 95% CI 1·21-1·28; mediator-adjusted 1·16, 1·12-1·19) and hospital admission (confounder-adjusted 1·32, 1·29-1·35; mediator-adjusted 1·20, 1·17-1·23). In post-hoc analyses, the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases was higher in non-White ethnic groups than in White ethnic groups (as it was in the general population). We saw no evidence of increased COVID-19-related death in adults on targeted, compared with those on standard systemic, therapy after adjusting for confounders (age, sex, deprivation, BMI, immune-mediated inflammatory diseases [bowel, joint, and skin], cardiovascular disease, cancer [excluding non-melanoma skin cancer], stroke, and diabetes (HR 1·03, 95% CI 0·80-1·33), and after additionally adjusting for current glucocorticoid use (1·01, 0·78-1·30). There was no evidence of increased COVID-19-related death in adults prescribed tumour necrosis factor inhibitors, interleukin (IL)-12/IL‑23 inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors, IL-6 inhibitors, or Janus kinase inhibitors compared with those on standard systemic therapy. Rituximab was associated with increased COVID-19-related death (HR 1·68, 95% CI 1·11-2·56), with some attenuation after excluding people with haematological malignancies or organ transplants (1·54, 0·95-2·49).

Interpretation

COVID-19 deaths and hospital admissions were higher in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. We saw no increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in those on most targeted immune-modifying drugs for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases compared with those on standard systemic therapy.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at King's College London and Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, and Wellcome Trust.

Rates of serious clinical outcomes in survivors of hospitalisation with COVID-19 in England: a descriptive cohort study within the OpenSAFELY platform

Background: Patients surviving hospitalisation for COVID-19 are thought to be at high risk of cardiometabolic and pulmonary complications, but quantification of that risk is limited. We aimed to describe the overall burden of these complications in people after discharge from hospital with COVID-19.   Methods: Working on behalf of NHS England, we used linked primary care records, death certificate and hospital data from the OpenSAFELY platform. We constructed three cohorts: patients discharged following hospitalisation with COVID-19, patients discharged following pre-pandemic hospitalisation with pneumonia, and a frequency-matched cohort from the general population in 2019. We studied seven outcomes: deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, AKI and new type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) diagnosis. Absolute rates were measured in each cohort and Fine and Gray models were used to estimate age/sex adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios comparing outcome risk between discharged COVID-19 patients and the two comparator cohorts. Results: Amongst the population of 77,347 patients discharged following hospitalisation with COVID-19, rates for the majority of outcomes peaked in the first month post-discharge, then declined over the following four months. Patients in the COVID-19 population had markedly higher risk of all outcomes compared to matched controls from the 2019 general population. Across the whole study period, the risk of outcomes was more similar when comparing patients discharged with COVID-19 to those discharged with pneumonia in 2019, although COVID-19 patients had higher risk of T2DM (15.2 versus 37.2 [rate per 1,000-person-years for COVID-19 versus pneumonia, respectively]; SHR, 1.46 [95% CI: 1.31 - 1.63]).  Conclusions: Risk of cardiometabolic and pulmonary adverse outcomes is markedly raised following discharge from hospitalisation with COVID-19 compared to the general population. However, excess risks were similar to those seen following discharge post-pneumonia. Overall, this suggests a large additional burden on healthcare resources.

Association of impaired kidney function with mortality in rural Uganda: results of a general population cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between baseline kidney function and subsequent all-cause mortality.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A general population-based cohort study from rural Uganda.

PARTICIPANTS

People aged 18 years and above with measured baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), recruited from survey rounds in 2011-2012 or 2014-2015 and followed up to March 2019.

OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, identified through reports from community health workers and verified by verbal autopsy. The association between baseline eGFR category and mortality was determined using multivariable Cox regression.

RESULTS

Of 5812 participants in both rounds, we included 5678 (97.7%) participants with kidney function and mortality data; the median age was 36 years (IQR 24-50), 60.7% were female, 10.3% were hypertensive, 9.8% were HIV-positive and 1.5% were diabetic. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 3.7-6.0) there were 140 deaths. In age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline was associated with a 5.97 (95% CI 2.55 to 13.98) increased risk of mortality compared with those with baseline eGFR >90 mL/min/1.73 m2. After inclusion of additional confounders (HIV, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, alcohol and smoking status) into the model, eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline remained strongly associated with mortality (HR 6.12, 95% CI 2.27 to 16.45), although the sample size fell to 3102. Test for trend showed strong evidence (p<0.001) that the rate of mortality increased progressively as the category of baseline kidney function decreased. When very high eGFR was included as a separate category in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted analyses, baseline eGFR ≥120 mL/min/1.73 m2 was associated with increased risk of mortality (HR 2.68, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.87) compared with the reference category of 90-119 mL/min/1.73 m2.

CONCLUSION

In a prospective cohort in rural Uganda we found that impaired baseline kidney function was associated with subsequently increased total mortality. Improved understanding of the determinants of kidney disease and its progression is needed in order to inform interventions for prevention and treatment.

Effects of ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers: protocol for a UK cohort study using routinely collected electronic health records with validation against the ONTARGET trial

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death globally, responsible for nearly 18 million deaths worldwide in 2017. Medications to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events are prescribed based on evidence from clinical trials which explore treatment effects in an indicated sample of the general population. However, these results may not be fully generalisable because of trial eligibility criteria that generally restrict to younger patients with fewer comorbidities. Therefore, evidence of effectiveness of medications for groups underrepresented in clinical trials such as those aged ≥75 years, from ethnic minority backgrounds or with low kidney function may be limited.Using individual anonymised data from the Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and the Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial (ONTARGET) trial, in collaboration with the original trial investigators, we aim to investigate clinical trial replicability within a real-world setting in the area of cardiovascular disease. If the original trial results are replicable, we will estimate treatment effects and risk in groups underrepresented and excluded from the original clinical trial.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will develop a cohort analogous to the ONTARGET trial within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1 January 2001 and 31 July 2019 using the trial eligibility criteria and propensity score matching. The primary outcome is a composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke and hospitalisation for congestive heart failure. If results from the cohort study fall within pre-specified limits, we will expand the cohort to include under represented and excluded groups.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been granted by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Ethics Committee (Ref: 22658). The study has been approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee of the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (protocol no. 20_012). Access to the individual patient data from the ONTARGET trial was obtained by the trial investigators. Findings will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences.

Mortality among Care Home Residents in England during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study of 4.3 million adults over the age of 65

BACKGROUND

Residents in care homes have been severely impacted by COVID-19. We describe trends in the mortality risk among residents of care homes compared to private homes.

METHODS

On behalf of NHS England we used OpenSAFELY-TPP to calculate monthly age-standardised risks of death due to all causes and COVID-19 among adults aged >=65 years between 1/2/2019 and 31/03/2021. Care home residents were identified using linkage to Care and Quality Commission data.

FINDINGS

We included 4,340,648 people aged 65 years or older on the 1st of February 2019, 2.2% of whom were classified as residing in a care or nursing home. Age-standardised mortality risks were approximately 10 times higher among care home residents compared to those in private housing in February 2019: comparative mortality figure (CMF) = 10.59 (95%CI = 9.51, 11.81) among women, and 10.87 (9.93, 11.90) among men. By April 2020 these relative differences had increased to more than 17 times with CMFs of 17.57 (16.43, 18.79) among women and 18.17 (17.22, 19.17) among men. CMFs did not increase during the second wave, despite a rise in the absolute age-standardised COVID-19 mortality risks.

INTERPRETATION

COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on the mortality of care home residents in England compared to older residents of private homes, but only in the first wave. This may be explained by a degree of acquired immunity, improved protective measures or changes in the underlying frailty of the populations. The care home population should be prioritised for measures aimed at controlling COVID-19.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council MR/V015737/1.

Donor-Transmitted Cancer in Orthotopic Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: A Systematic Review

Donor-transmitted cancer (DTC) has major implications for the affected patient as well as other recipients of organs from the same donor. Unlike heterotopic transplant recipients, there may be limited treatment options for orthotopic transplant recipients with DTC. We systematically reviewed the evidence on DTC in orthotopic solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science in January 2020. We included cases where the outcome was reported and excluded donor-derived cancers. We assessed study quality using published checklists. Our domains of interest were presentation, time to diagnosis, cancer extent, management, and survival. There were 73 DTC cases in liver (n = 51), heart (n = 10), lung (n = 10) and multi-organ (n = 2) recipients from 58 publications. Study quality was variable. Median time to diagnosis was 8 months; 42% were widespread at diagnosis. Of 13 cases that underwent re-transplantation, three tumours recurred. Mortality was 75%; median survival 7 months. Survival was worst in transmitted melanoma and central nervous system tumours. The prognosis of DTC in orthotopic SOTRs is poor. Although re-transplantation offers the best chance of cure, some tumours still recur. Publication bias and clinical heterogeneity limit the available evidence. From our findings, we suggest refinements to clinical practice.

Systematic Review Registration:https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020165001, Prospero Registration Number: CRD42020165001.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and associated risk in rural South Africa: a population-based cohort study

Background: In Africa, true prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown, and associated clinical and genetic risk factors remain understudied. This population-based cohort study aimed to investigate CKD prevalence and associated risk factors in rural South Africa. Methods: A total 2021 adults aged 20-79 years were recruited between 2017-2018 from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga, South Africa. The following were collected: sociodemographic, anthropometric, and clinical data; venous blood samples for creatinine, hepatitis B serology; DNA extraction; spot urine samples for dipstick testing and urine albumin: creatinine ratio (UACR) measurement. Point-of-care screening determined prevalent HIV infection, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. DNA was used to test for apolipoprotein L1 ( APOL1) kidney risk variants. Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria were used to diagnose CKD as low eGFR (<60mL/min/1.73m ²) and /or albuminuria (UACR ≥ 3.0mg/mmol) confirmed with follow up screening after at least three months. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI _(creatinine) equation 2009 with no ethnicity adjustment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model CKD risk. Results: The WHO age-adjusted population prevalence of CKD was 6.7% (95% CI 5.4 - 7.9), mostly from persistent albuminuria. In the fully adjusted model, APOL1 high-risk genotypes (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.3 - 3.4); HIV infection (OR 1.8; 1.1 - 2.8); hypertension (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8 - 4.3), and diabetes (OR 4.1; 95% CI 2.0 - 8.4) were risk factors. There was no association with age, sex, level of education, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, or hepatitis B infection. Sensitivity analyses showed that CKD risk factor associations were driven by persistent albuminuria, and not low eGFR. One third of those with CKD did not have any of these risk factors. Conclusions:  In rural South Africa, CKD is prevalent, dominated by persistent albuminuria, and associated with APOL1 high-risk genotypes, hypertension, diabetes, and HIV infection.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and associated risk in rural South Africa: a population-based cohort study

Background: In Africa, true prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unknown, and associated clinical and genetic risk factors remain understudied. This population-based cohort study aimed to investigate CKD prevalence and associated risk factors in rural South Africa. Methods: A total 2021 adults aged 20-79 years were recruited between 2017-2018 from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga, South Africa. The following were collected: sociodemographic, anthropometric, and clinical data; venous blood samples for creatinine, hepatitis B serology; DNA extraction; spot urine samples for dipstick testing and urine albumin: creatinine ratio (UACR) measurement. Point-of-care screening determined prevalent HIV infection, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia. DNA was used to test for apolipoprotein L1 ( APOL1) kidney risk variants. Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria were used to diagnose CKD as low eGFR (<60mL/min/1.73m ²) and /or albuminuria (UACR ≥ 3.0mg/mmol) confirmed with follow up screening after at least three months. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI _(creatinine) equation 2009 with no ethnicity adjustment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model CKD risk. Results: The WHO age-adjusted population prevalence of CKD was 6.7% (95% CI 5.4 - 7.9), mostly from persistent albuminuria. In the fully adjusted model, APOL1 high-risk genotypes (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.3 - 3.4); HIV infection (OR 1.8; 1.1 - 2.8); hypertension (OR 2.8; 95% CI 1.8 - 4.3), and diabetes (OR 4.1; 95% CI 2.0 - 8.4) were risk factors. There was no association with age, sex, level of education, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, or hepatitis B infection. Sensitivity analyses showed that CKD risk factor associations were driven by persistent albuminuria, and not low eGFR. One third of those with CKD did not have any of these risk factors. Conclusions:  In rural South Africa, CKD is prevalent, dominated by persistent albuminuria, and associated with APOL1 high-risk genotypes, hypertension, diabetes, and HIV infection.

A comprehensive high cost drugs dataset from the NHS in England - An OpenSAFELY-TPP Short Data Report

Background: At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no routine comprehensive hospital medicines data from the UK available to researchers. These records can be important for many analyses including the effect of certain medicines on the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. With the approval of NHS England, we set out to obtain data on one specific group of medicines, "high-cost drugs" (HCD) which are typically specialist medicines for the management of long-term conditions, prescribed by hospitals to patients. Additionally, we aimed to make these data available to all approved researchers in OpenSAFELY-TPP. This report is intended to support all studies carried out in OpenSAFELY-TPP, and those elsewhere, working with this dataset or similar data. Methods: Working with the North East Commissioning Support Unit and NHS Digital, we arranged for collation of a single national HCD dataset to help inform responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dataset was developed from payment submissions from hospitals to commissioners. Results: In the financial year (FY) 2018/19 there were 2.8 million submissions for 1.1 million unique patient IDs recorded in the HCD. The average number of submissions per patient over the year was 2.6. In FY 2019/20 there were 4.0 million submissions for 1.3 million unique patient IDs. The average number of submissions per patient over the year was 3.1. Of the 21 variables in the dataset, three are now available for analysis in OpenSafely-TPP: Financial year and month of drug being dispensed; drug name; and a description of the drug dispensed. Conclusions: We have described the process for sourcing a national HCD dataset, making these data available for COVID-19-related analysis through OpenSAFELY-TPP and provided information on the variables included in the dataset, data coverage and an initial descriptive analysis.

Association between warfarin and COVID-19-related outcomes compared with direct oral anticoagulants: population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Thromboembolism has been reported as a consequence of severe COVID-19. Although warfarin is a commonly used anticoagulant, it acts by antagonising vitamin K, which is low in patients with severe COVID-19. To date, the clinical evidence on the impact of regular use of warfarin on COVID-19-related thromboembolism is lacking.

METHODS

On behalf of NHS England, we conducted a population-based cohort study investigating the association between warfarin and COVID-19 outcomes compared with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). We used the OpenSAFELY platform to analyse primary care data and pseudonymously linked SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing data, hospital admissions and death records from England. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for COVID-19-related outcomes comparing warfarin with DOACs in people with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. We also conducted negative control outcome analyses (being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and non-COVID-19 death) to assess the potential impact of confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 92,339 warfarin users and 280,407 DOAC users were included. We observed a lower risk of all outcomes associated with warfarin versus DOACs [testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, HR 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.79); COVID-19-related hospital admission, HR 0.75 (95% CI 0.68-0.83); COVID-19-related deaths, HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.83)]. A lower risk of negative control outcomes associated with warfarin versus DOACs was also observed [being tested for SARS-CoV-2, HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.81); non-COVID-19 deaths, HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.83)].

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, this study shows no evidence of harmful effects of warfarin on severe COVID-19 disease.

Protocol for an observational cohort study investigating personalised medicine for intensification of treatment in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the PERMIT study

INTRODUCTION

For people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who require an antidiabetic drug as an add-on to metformin, there is controversy about whether newer drug classes such as dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) reduce the risk of long-term complications compared with sulfonylureas (SU). There is widespread variation across National Health Service Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in drug choice for second-line treatment in part because National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines do not specify a single preferred drug class, either overall or within specific patient subgroups. This study will evaluate the relative effectiveness of the three most common second-line treatments in the UK (SU, DPP4i and SGLT2i as add-ons to metformin) and help target treatments according to individual risk profiles.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study includes people with T2DM prescribed one of the second-line treatments-of-interest between 2014 and 2020 within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics. We will use an instrumental variable (IV) method to estimate short-term and long-term relative effectiveness of second-line treatments according to individuals' risk profiles. This method minimises bias from unmeasured confounders by exploiting the natural variation in second-line prescribing across CCGs as an IV for the choice of prescribed treatment. The primary outcome to assess short-term effectiveness will be change in haemoglobin A1c (%) 12 months after treatment initiation. Outcome measures to assess longer-term effectiveness (maximum ~6 years) will include microvascular and macrovascular complications, all-cause mortality and hospital admissions during follow-up.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (20-064) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Research Ethics Committee (21395). Results, codelists and other analysis code will be made available to patients, clinicians, policy-makers and researchers.

Prediction of individuals at high risk of chronic kidney disease during treatment with lithium for bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

Lithium is the most effective treatment in bipolar disorder. Its use is limited by concerns about risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to develop a model to predict risk of CKD following lithium treatment initiation, by identifying individuals with a high-risk trajectory of kidney function.

METHODS

We used United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) electronic health records (EHRs) from 2000 to 2018. CPRD Aurum for prediction model development and CPRD Gold for external validation. We used elastic net regularised regression to generate a prediction model from potential features. We performed discrimination and calibration assessments in an external validation data set. We included all patients aged ≥ 16 with bipolar disorder prescribed lithium. To be included patients had to have ≥ 1 year of follow-up before lithium initiation, ≥ 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures after lithium initiation (to be able to determine a trajectory) and a normal (≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m²) eGFR at lithium initiation (baseline). In the Aurum development cohort, 1609 fulfilled these criteria. The Gold external validation cohort included 934 patients. We included 44 potential baseline features in the prediction model, including sociodemographic, mental and physical health and drug treatment characteristics. We compared a full model with the 3-variable 5-year kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) and a 3-variable elastic net model. We used group-based trajectory modelling to identify latent trajectory groups for eGFR. We were interested in the group with deteriorating kidney function (the high-risk group).

RESULTS

The high risk of deteriorating eGFR group included 191 (11.87%) of the Aurum cohort and 137 (14.67%) of the Gold cohort. Of these, 168 (87.96%) and 117 (85.40%) respectively developed CKD 3a or more severe during follow-up. The model, developed in Aurum, had a ROC area of 0.879 (95%CI 0.853-0.904) in the Gold external validation data set. At the empirical optimal cut-point defined in the development dataset, the model had a sensitivity of 0.91 (95%CI 0.84-0.97) and a specificity of 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.82). However, a 3-variable elastic net model (including only age, sex and baseline eGFR) performed similarly well (ROC area 0.888; 95%CI 0.864-0.912), as did the KFRE (ROC area 0.870; 95%CI 0.841-0.898).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals at high risk of a poor eGFR trajectory can be identified before initiation of lithium treatment by a simple equation including age, sex and baseline eGFR. Risk was increased in individuals who were younger at commencement of lithium, female and had a lower baseline eGFR. We did not identify strong predicters of eGFR decline specific to lithium-treated patients. Notably, lithium duration and toxicity were not associated with high-risk trajectory.

Identifying Care Home Residents in Electronic Health Records - An OpenSAFELY Short Data Report

Background: Care home residents have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Electronic Health Records (EHR) hold significant potential for studying the healthcare needs of this vulnerable population; however, identifying care home residents in EHR is not straightforward. We describe and compare three different methods for identifying care home residents in the newly created OpenSAFELY-TPP data analytics platform.  Methods: Working on behalf of NHS England, we identified individuals aged 65 years or older potentially living in a care home on the 1st of February 2020 using (1) a complex address linkage, in which cleaned GP registered addresses were matched to old age care home addresses using data from the Care and Quality Commission (CQC); (2) coded events in the EHR; (3) household identifiers, age and household size to identify households with more than 3 individuals aged 65 years or older as potential care home residents. Raw addresses were not available to the investigators. Results: Of 4,437,286 individuals aged 65 years or older, 2.27% were identified as potential care home residents using the complex address linkage, 1.96% using coded events, 3.13% using household size and age and 3.74% using either of these methods. 53,210 individuals (32.0% of all potential care home residents) were classified as care home residents using all three methods. Address linkage had the largest overlap with the other methods; 93.3% of individuals identified as care home residents using the address linkage were also identified as such using either coded events or household age and size.  Conclusion: We have described the partial overlap between three methods for identifying care home residents in EHR, and provide detailed instructions for how to implement these in OpenSAFELY-TPP to support research into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on care home residents.

Association between living with children and outcomes from covid-19: OpenSAFELY cohort study of 12 million adults in England

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether risk of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) differed between adults living with and without children during the first two waves of the UK pandemic.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study, on behalf of NHS England.

SETTING

Primary care data and pseudonymously linked hospital and intensive care admissions and death records from England, during wave 1 (1 February to 31 August 2020) and wave 2 (1 September to 18 December 2020).

PARTICIPANTS

Two cohorts of adults (18 years and over) registered at a general practice on 1 February 2020 and 1 September 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Adjusted hazard ratios for SARS-CoV-2 infection, covid-19 related admission to hospital or intensive care, or death from covid-19, by presence of children in the household.

RESULTS

Among 9 334 392adults aged 65 years and under, during wave 1, living with children was not associated with materially increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection, covid-19 related hospital or intensive care admission, or death from covid-19. In wave 2, among adults aged 65 years and under, living with children of any age was associated with an increased risk of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection (hazard ratio 1.06 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.08) for living with children aged 0-11 years; 1.22 (1.20 to 1.24) for living with children aged 12-18 years) and covid-19 related hospital admission (1.18 (1.06 to 1.31) for living with children aged 0-11; 1.26 (1.12 to 1.40) for living with children aged 12-18). Living with children aged 0-11 was associated with reduced risk of death from both covid-19 and non-covid-19 causes in both waves; living with children of any age was also associated with lower risk of dying from non-covid-19 causes. For adults 65 years and under during wave 2, living with children aged 0-11 years was associated with an increased absolute risk of having SARS-CoV-2 infection recorded of 40-60 per 10 000 people, from 810 to between 850 and 870, and an increase in the number of hospital admissions of 1-5 per 10 000 people, from 160 to between 161 and 165. Living with children aged 12-18 years was associated with an increase of 160-190 per 10 000 in the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and an increase of 2-6 per 10 000 in the number of hospital admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to wave 1, evidence existed of increased risk of reported SARS-CoV-2 infection and covid-19 outcomes among adults living with children during wave 2. However, this did not translate into a materially increased risk of covid-19 mortality, and absolute increases in risk were small.

Proton pump inhibitors and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A cohort study

AIM

To investigate the association between proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and both all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database. We compared 733 885 new users of PPIs to 124 410 new users of H2 receptor antagonists (H2Ras). In a secondary analysis we compared 689 602 PPI new users to 1 361 245 nonusers of acid suppression therapy matched on age, sex and calendar year. Hazard ratios for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated using propensity score (PS) weighted Cox models.

RESULTS

PPI prescription was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, with hazard ratios decreasing considerably by increasing adjustment (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.62-1.69; PS-weighted HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.33-1.44; high-dimensional PS-weighted HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.26-1.37). Short-term associations were observed with mortality from causes where a causal short-term association is unexpected (eg, lung cancer mortality: PS-weighted HR at 6 months 1.77, 95% CI 1.39-2.25). Adjusted hazard ratios were substantially higher when compared to nonusers (PS-weighted HR all-cause mortality 1.96, 95% CI 1.94-1.99) rather than H2RA users.

CONCLUSIONS

PPI prescription was strongly associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. However, the change in hazard ratios (a) by increasing adjustment and (b) between comparator groups indicates that residual confounding is likely to explain the association between poor health outcomes and PPI use, and fully accounting for this using observational data may not be possible.

Stopping Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors in Patients with Advanced CKD and Risk of Adverse Outcomes: A Nationwide Study

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether stopping renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitor therapy in patients with advanced CKD affects outcomes.

METHODS

We studied patients referred to nephrologist care, listed on the Swedish Renal Registry during 2007-2017, who developed advanced CKD (eGFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m²) while on RAS inhibitor therapy. Using target trial emulation techniques on the basis of cloning, censoring, and weighting, we compared the risks of stopping within 6 months and remaining off treatment versus continuing RAS inhibitor therapy. These included risks of subsequent 5-year all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events, and initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT).

RESULTS

Of 10,254 prevalent RAS inhibitor users (median age 72 years, 36% female) with new-onset eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m², 1553 (15%) stopped RAS inhibitor therapy within 6 months. Median eGFR was 23 ml/min per 1.73 m². Compared with continuing RAS inhibition, stopping this therapy was associated with a higher absolute 5-year risk of death (40.9% versus 54.5%) and major adverse cardiovascular events (47.6% versus 59.5%), but with a lower risk of KRT (36.1% versus 27.9%); these corresponded to absolute risk differences of 13.6 events per 100 patients, 11.9 events per 100 patients, and -8.3 events per 100 patients, respectively. Results were consistent whether patients stopped RAS inhibition at higher or lower eGFR, across prespecified subgroups, after adjustment and stratification for albuminuria and potassium, and when modeling RAS inhibition as a time-dependent exposure using a marginal structural model.

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationwide observational study of people with advanced CKD, stopping RAS inhibition was associated with higher absolute risks of mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events, but also with a lower absolute risk of initiating KRT.

A Systematic Review of COVID-19 and Kidney Transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Kidney transplant recipients are at increased susceptibility to many viral infections leading to justifiable anxiety about the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed literature searches from multiple resources in April and August 2020 for relevant English and Chinese literature. Abstracts were screened, followed by full-text review with data extraction of reports that included at least 20 kidney transplant recipients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and completed outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty studies had sufficient data, which we have summarized. Studies were predominantly descriptive and came from France, Italy, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States. Quality assessment demonstrated limitations in selection of comparison groups and controlling for additional factors. Mortality rates from published studies were variable. Based on early data early from Spain, 46% of patients who developed COVID-19 within 60 days of transplantation died. Acute kidney injury was common, and mycophenolate was discontinued in most patients.

CONCLUSION

Given the rapid global spread of COVID-19, reliable evidence is needed to inform public health policies. Hospitalized kidney transplant recipients with COVID-19 are at a high risk of death in early reports but interpretation of these data requires caution, as studies were susceptible to period effects. Reassuringly, the quality of observational data is improving. Detailed and comprehensive data collection through linked registries will be necessary to conduct accurate analyses of risk factors for adverse outcomes, not least given the risks of stopping imunosuppression. This report highlights the early mortality excess in transplant recipients but medium- and longer-term outcomes remain uncertain and merit careful investigation.

First line drug treatment for hypertension and reductions in blood pressure according to age and ethnicity: cohort study in UK primary care

OBJECTIVE

To study whether treatment recommendations based on age and ethnicity according to United Kingdom (UK) clinical guidelines for hypertension translate to blood pressure reductions in current routine clinical care.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

UK primary care, from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

New users of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEI/ARB), calcium channel blockers (CCB), and thiazides.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Change in systolic blood pressure in new users of ACEI/ARB versus CCB, stratified by age (< v ≥55) and ethnicity (black v non-black), from baseline to 12, 26, and 52 week follow-up. Secondary analyses included comparisons of new users of CCB with those of thiazides. A negative outcome (herpes zoster) was used to detect residual confounding and a series of positive outcomes (expected drug effects) was used to determine whether the study design could identify expected associations.

RESULTS

During one year of follow-up, 87 440 new users of ACEI/ARB, 67 274 new users of CCB, and 22 040 new users of thiazides were included (median 4 (interquartile range 2-6) blood pressure measurements per user). For non-black people who did not have diabetes and who were younger than 55, CCB use was associated with a larger reduction in systolic blood pressure of 1.69 mm Hg (99% confidence interval -2.52 to -0.86) relative to ACEI/ARB use at 12 weeks, and a reduction of 0.40 mm Hg (-0.98 to 0.18) in those aged 55 and older. In subgroup analyses using six finer age categories of non-black people who did not have diabetes, CCB use versus ACEI/ARB use was associated with a larger reduction in systolic blood pressure only in people aged 75 and older. Among people who did not have diabetes, systolic blood pressure decreased more with CCB use than with ACEI/ARB use in black people (reduction difference 2.15 mm Hg (-6.17 to 1.87)); the corresponding reduction difference was 0.98 mm Hg (-1.49 to -0.47) in non-black people.

CONCLUSIONS

Similar reductions in blood pressure were found to be associated with new use of CCB as with new use of ACEI/ARB in non-black people who did not have diabetes, both in those who were aged younger than 55 and those aged 55 and older. For black people without diabetes, CCB new use was associated with numerically greater reductions in blood pressure than ACEI/ARB compared with non-black people without diabetes, but the confidence intervals were overlapping for the two groups. These results suggest that the current UK algorithmic approach to first line antihypertensive treatment might not lead to greater reductions in blood pressure. Specific indications could be considered in treatment recommendations.

Changes in Blood Pressure and Arterial Hemodynamics following Living Kidney Donation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The Effect of a Reduction in GFR after Nephrectomy on Arterial Stiffness and Central Hemodynamics (EARNEST) study was a multicenter, prospective, controlled study designed to investigate the associations of an isolated reduction in kidney function on BP and arterial hemodynamics.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Prospective living kidney donors and healthy controls who fulfilled criteria for donation were recruited from centers with expertise in vascular research. Participants underwent office and ambulatory BP measurement, assessment of arterial stiffness, and biochemical tests at baseline and 12 months.

RESULTS

A total of 469 participants were recruited, and 306 (168 donors and 138 controls) were followed up at 12 months. In the donor group, mean eGFR was 27 ml/min per 1.73 m² lower than baseline at 12 months. Compared with baseline, at 12 months the mean within-group difference in ambulatory day systolic BP in donors was 0.1 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -1.7 to 1.9) and 0.6 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -0.7 to 2.0) in controls. The between-group difference was -0.5 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -2.8 to 1.7; P=0.62). The mean within-group difference in pulse wave velocity in donors was 0.3 m/s (95% confidence interval, 0.1 to 0.4) and 0.2 m/s (95% confidence interval, -0.0 to 0.4) in controls. The between-group difference was 0.1 m/s (95% confidence interval, -0.2 to 0.3; P=0.49).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in ambulatory peripheral BP and pulse wave velocity in kidney donors at 12 months after nephrectomy were small and not different from controls.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01769924 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01769924).

Stopping renin-angiotensin system blockers after acute kidney injury and risk of adverse outcomes: parallel population-based cohort studies in English and Swedish routine care

BACKGROUND

The safety of restarting angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) after acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. There is concern that previous users do not restart ACEI/ARB despite ongoing indications. We sought to determine the risk of adverse events after an episode of AKI, comparing prior ACEI/ARB users who stop treatment to those who continue.

METHODS

We conducted two parallel cohort studies in English and Swedish primary and secondary care, 2006-2016. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for hospital admission with heart failure (primary analysis), AKI, stroke, or death within 2 years after hospital discharge following a first AKI episode. We compared risks of admission between people who stopped ACEI/ARB treatment to those who were prescribed ACEI/ARB within 30 days of AKI discharge. We undertook sensitivity analyses, including propensity score-matched samples, to explore the robustness of our results.

RESULTS

In England, we included 7303 people with AKI hospitalisation following recent ACEI/ARB therapy for the primary analysis. Four thousand three (55%) were classified as stopping ACEI/ARB based on no prescription within 30 days of discharge. In Sweden, we included 1790 people, of whom 1235 (69%) stopped treatment. In England, no differences were seen in subsequent risk of heart failure (HR 1.10; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.93-1.30), AKI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.77-1.05), or stroke (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.71-1.38), but there was an increased risk of death (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.41) in those who stopped ACEI/ARB compared to those who continued. Results were similar in Sweden: no differences were seen in risk of heart failure (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.73-1.13) or AKI (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.54-1.21). However, no increased risk of death was seen (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.78-1.13) and stroke was less common in people who stopped ACEI/ARB (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34-0.93). Results were similar across all sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous ACEI/ARB users who continued treatment after an episode of AKI did not have an increased risk of heart failure or subsequent AKI compared to those who stopped the drugs.

The effect of initiation of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors on haemoglobin: A national cohort study

AIMS

To determine whether initiation of treatment with angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ACEI/ARBs) is associated with a subsequent reduction in haemoglobin in the general population.

METHODS

We undertook a national cohort study over a 13-year period (2004-2016), using routine primary healthcare data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We compared ACEI/ARB initiation with calcium channel blocker (CCB) initiation, to minimise confounding by indication. We included all first ACEI/ARB or CCB prescriptions in adults with at least 1 haemoglobin result in the 12 months before and 6 months after drug initiation. Our primary outcome was a ≥1 g/dL haemoglobin reduction in the 6 months after drug initiation.

RESULTS

We examined 146 610 drug initiation events in 136 655 patients. Haemoglobin fell by ≥1 g/dL after drug initiation in 19.5% (16 936/86 652) of ACEI/ARB initiators and 15.9% (9521/59 958) of CCB initiators. The adjusted odds ratio of a ≥1 g/dL haemoglobin reduction in ACEI/ARB initiators vs CCB initiators was 1.15 (95% confidence interval 1.12-1.19).

CONCLUSION

ACEI/ARBs are associated with a modest increase in the risk of a haemoglobin reduction. For every 100 patients in our study that initiated a CCB, 16 experienced a ≥1 g/dL haemoglobin decline. If the effect is causal, 3 additional patients would have experienced this outcome if they had received an ACEI/ARB. This may have implications for drug choice and monitoring for many patients in primary care. Further research could identify patients at higher risk of this outcome, who may benefit from closer monitoring.

Change in renal function associated with drug treatment in heart failure: national guidance

Inhibitors of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone (RAAS) system are cornerstones of the management of patients with heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, RAAS inhibitors may cause decline in renal function and/or hyperkalaemia, particularly during initiation and titration, intercurrent illness and during worsening of heart failure. There is very little evidence from clinical trials to guide the management of renal dysfunction. The Renal Association and British Society for Heart Failure have collaborated to describe the interactions between heart failure, RAAS inhibitors and renal dysfunction and give clear guidance on the use of RAAS inhibitors in patients with HFrEF. During initiation and titration of RAAS inhibitors, testing renal function is mandatory; a decline in renal function of 30% or more can be acceptable. During intercurrent illness, there is no evidence that stopping RAAS inhibitor is beneficial, but if potassium rises above 6.0 mmol/L, or creatinine rises more than 30%, RAAS inhibitors should be temporarily withheld. In patients with fluid retention, high doses of diuretic are needed and a decline in renal function is not an indication to reduce diuretic dose: if the patient remains congested, more diuretics are required. If a patient is hypovolaemic, diuretics should be stopped or withheld temporarily. Towards end of life, consider stopping RAAS inhibitors. RAAS inhibition has no known prognostic benefit in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Efforts should be made to initiate, titrate and maintain patients with HFrEF on RAAS inhibitor treatment, whether during intercurrent illness or worsening heart failure.

Propensity scores using missingness pattern information: a practical guide

Electronic health records are a valuable data source for investigating health-related questions, and propensity score analysis has become an increasingly popular approach to address confounding bias in such investigations. However, because electronic health records are typically routinely recorded as part of standard clinical care, there are often missing values, particularly for potential confounders. In our motivating study-using electronic health records to investigate the effect of renin-angiotensin system blockers on the risk of acute kidney injury-two key confounders, ethnicity and chronic kidney disease stage, have 59% and 53% missing data, respectively. The missingness pattern approach (MPA), a variant of the missing indicator approach, has been proposed as a method for handling partially observed confounders in propensity score analysis. In the MPA, propensity scores are estimated separately for each missingness pattern present in the data. Although the assumptions underlying the validity of the MPA are stated in the literature, it can be difficult in practice to assess their plausibility. In this article, we explore the MPA's underlying assumptions by using causal diagrams to assess their plausibility in a range of simple scenarios, drawing general conclusions about situations in which they are likely to be violated. We present a framework providing practical guidance for assessing whether the MPA's assumptions are plausible in a particular setting and thus deciding when the MPA is appropriate. We apply our framework to our motivating study, showing that the MPA's underlying assumptions appear reasonable, and we demonstrate the application of MPA to this study.

Comparative effects of sulphonylureas, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors added to metformin monotherapy: a propensity-score matched cohort study in UK primary care

AIM

To assess the comparative effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, sulphonylureas (SUs) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors on cardiometabolic risk factors in routine care.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using primary care data on 10 631 new users of SUs, SGLT2 inhibitors or DPP-4 inhibitors added to metformin, obtained from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we created propensity-score matched cohorts and used linear mixed models to describe changes in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), systolic blood pressure (BP) and body mass index (BMI) over 96 weeks.

RESULTS

HbA1c levels fell substantially after treatment intensification for all drugs: mean change at week 12: SGLT2 inhibitors: -15.2 mmol/mol (95% confidence interval [CI] -16.9, -13.5); SUs: -14.3 mmol/mol (95% CI -15.5, -13.2); and DPP-4 inhibitors: -11.9 mmol/mol (95% CI -13.1, -10.6). Systolic BP fell for SGLT2 inhibitor users throughout follow-up, but not for DPP-4 inhibitor or SU users: mean change at week 12: SGLT2 inhibitors: -2.3 mmHg (95% CI -3.8, -0.8); SUs: -0.8 mmHg (95% CI -1.9, +0.4); and DPP-4 inhibitors: -0.9 mmHg (95% CI -2.1,+0.2). BMI decreased for SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor users, but not SU users: mean change at week 12: SGLT2 inhibitors: -0.7 kg/m² (95% CI -0.9, -0.5); SUs: 0.0 kg/m² (95% CI -0.3, +0.2); and DPP-4 inhibitors: -0.3 kg/m² (95% CI -0.5, -0.1). eGFR fell at 12 weeks for SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor users. At 60 weeks, the fall in eGFR from baseline was similar for each drug class.

CONCLUSIONS

In routine care, SGLT2 inhibitors had greater effects on cardiometabolic risk factors than SUs. Routine care data closely replicated the effects of diabetes drugs on physiological variables measured in clinical trials.

Comparisons of Staphylococcus aureus infection and other outcomes between users of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers: lessons for COVID-19 from a nationwide cohort study

Background: Mice receiving angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) drugs show increased susceptibility to infection by Staphylococcus aureus ( S. aureus). We sought to investigate whether humans using ACEI were at increased risk of S. aureus infection, comparing them to users of Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers (ARB) with multiple control outcomes to assess the potential for residual confounding.

Methods: Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics between 1997 and 2017, we identified adults starting ACEI or ARB (as an active comparator drug). We regarded prescription of ACEI or ARB as time-dependent exposure and used a Cox regression model to compare incidence of first hospitalisation with infection due to S. aureus in periods with ACEI to periods with ARB prescriptions. We repeated the analysis using control outcomes that we did not expect to be associated with use of ACEI versus ARB (Gram-negative sepsis, hip fracture and herpes zoster) and one that we did (dry cough).

Results: We identified 445,341 new users of ACEI (mean age 64.0±14.0, male 51.7%) and 41,824 new users of ARB (mean age 64.1±14.0, male 45.5%). The fully adjusted hazard ratio for S. aureus infection (ACEI vs. ARB) was 1.18 (95% CI 1.10–1.27), consistent across sensitivity analyses. However, we also found associations with all control outcomes; rates of Gram-negative sepsis, hip fracture and dry cough were also increased during periods of time treated with ACEI compared to ARB while herpes zoster was more common during time treated with ARB.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that although ARB users appear an ideal control for analyses of ACEI effects, there is residual confounding even after multivariable adjustment. This has implications for observational analyses comparing users of these drug classes, in particular the effect of these drugs in relation to COVID-19 infection.