Reproducibility between preschool and school-age Social Responsiveness Scale forms in the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes program

Evidence suggests core autism trait consistency in older children, but development of these traits is variable in early childhood. The Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) measures autism-related traits and broader autism phenotype, with two age-dependent forms in childhood (preschool, 2.5-4.5 years; school age, 4-18 years). Score consistency has been observed within forms, though reliability across forms has not been evaluated. Using data from the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) program (n = 853), preschool, and school-age SRS scores were collected via maternal report when children were an average of 3.0 and 5.8 years, respectively. We compared reproducibility of SRS total scores (T-scores) and agreement above a clinically meaningful cutoff (T-scores ≥ 60) and examined predictors of discordance in cutoff scores across forms. Participant scores across forms were similar (mean difference: 3.3 points; standard deviation: 7), though preschool scores were on average lower than school-age scores. Most children (88%) were classified below the cutoff on both forms, and overall concordance was high (92%). However, discordance was higher in cohorts following younger siblings of autistic children (16%). Proportions of children with an autism diagnoses were also higher among those with discordant scores (27%) than among those with concordant scores (4%). Our findings indicate SRS scores are broadly reproducible across preschool and school-age forms, particularly for capturing broader, nonclinical traits, but also suggest that greater variability of autism-related traits in preschool-age children may reduce reliability with later school-age scores for those in the clinical range.

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection on prevalence of long COVID among a population-based probability sample of Michiganders, 2020-2022

PURPOSE

To estimate the association between COVID-19 vaccination status at the time of COVID-19 onset and long COVID prevalence.

METHODS

We used data from the Michigan COVID-19 Recovery Surveillance Study, a population-based probability sample of adults with COVID-19 (n = 4695). We considered 30-day and 90-day long COVID (illness duration ≥30 or ≥90 days, respectively), using Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) comparing vaccinated (completed an initial series ≥14 days before COVID-19 onset) to unvaccinated individuals (received 0 doses before COVID-19 onset), accounting for differences in age, sex, race and ethnicity, education, employment, health insurance, and rurality/urbanicity. The full unvaccinated comparison group was further divided into historic and concurrent comparison groups based on timing of COVID-19 onset relative to vaccine availability. We used inverse probability of treatment weights to account for sociodemographic differences between groups.

RESULTS

Compared to the full unvaccinated comparison group, the adjusted prevalence of 30-day and 90-day long COVID were lower among vaccinated individuals [PR30-day= 0.57(95%CI:0.49,0.66); PR90-day= 0.42(95%CI:0.34,0.53)]. Estimates were consistent across comparison groups (full, historic, and concurrent).

CONCLUSIONS

Long COVID prevalence was 40-60% lower among adults vaccinated (vs. unvaccinated) prior to their COVID-19 onset. COVID-19 vaccination may be an important tool to reduce the burden of long COVID.

Focused ultrasound ablation of melanoma with boiling histotripsy yields abscopal tumor control and antigen-dependent dendritic cell activation

Background: Boiling histotripsy (BH), a mechanical focused ultrasound ablation strategy, can elicit intriguing signatures of anti-tumor immunity. However, the influence of BH on dendritic cell function is unknown, compromising our ability to optimally combine BH with immunotherapies to control metastatic disease. Methods: BH was applied using a sparse scan (1 mm spacing between sonications) protocol to B16F10-ZsGreen melanoma in bilateral and unilateral settings. Ipsilateral and contralateral tumor growth was measured. Flow cytometry was used to track ZsGreen antigen and assess how BH drives dendritic cell behavior. Results: BH monotherapy elicited ipsilateral and abscopal tumor control in this highly aggressive model. Tumor antigen presence in immune cells in the tumor-draining lymph nodes (TDLNs) was ~3-fold greater at 24h after BH, but this abated by 96h. B cells, macrophages, monocytes, granulocytes, and both conventional dendritic cell subsets (i.e. cDC1s and cDC2s) acquired markedly more antigen with BH. BH drove activation of both cDC subsets, with activation being dependent upon tumor antigen acquisition. Our data also suggest that BH-liberated tumor antigen is complexed with damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs) and that cDCs do not traffic to the TDLN with antigen. Rather, they acquire antigen as it flows through afferent lymph vessels into the TDLN. Conclusion: When applied with a sparse scan protocol, BH monotherapy elicits abscopal melanoma control and shapes dendritic cell function through several previously unappreciated mechanisms. These results offer new insight into how to best combine BH with immunotherapies for the treatment of metastatic melanoma.

Distress about social problems and tobacco and cannabis use outcomes among young adults in Los Angeles County

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations of concern, worry, and stress about discrimination, shootings/violence, and police brutality and exclusive and dual tobacco and cannabis use among young adults.

METHODS

A prospective, racially/ethnically diverse cohort of young adults (n = 1960) living in Los Angeles, California completed a baseline survey in 2020 (age range: 19-23) and a follow-up survey in 2021. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was employed on nine variables assessing levels of concern, worry, and stress about societal discrimination, societal shootings/violence, and community police brutality at baseline. Past 30-day tobacco and cannabis use at follow-up was categorized as current exclusive tobacco, exclusive cannabis, and dual tobacco and cannabis (vs never/former) use based on eleven use variables. Multinomial logistic regressions estimated adjusted associations between each factor score (translated to standard deviation units) with exclusive and dual tobacco and cannabis use.

RESULTS

The EFA produced four factor scores representing concern/worry/stress (i.e., distress) about community police brutality (F1), distress about societal shootings/violence (F2), and distress about societal discrimination (F3), as well as generalized stress about police brutality, shootings/violence, and discrimination (F4). F1, F2, and F3 were associated with subsequent exclusive current cannabis use, with F1 having the strongest association (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.18-1.55), while only F1 (OR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.27-1.78) was associated with dual tobacco and cannabis use. None of the factors were associated with exclusive tobacco use.

CONCLUSIONS

Young adult concern, worry, and/or stress about social problems may increase risk of cannabis use with or without concurrent tobacco use 6-12 months later.

Discrimination and Tobacco Use Outcomes Among US Adults: Effect Modification by Race/Ethnicity

INTRODUCTION

Racial/ethnic discrimination (hereafter, discrimination) is associated with tobacco use. However, little is known about the relationship between discrimination and dual/polytobacco use and tobacco use disorder (TUD), including how these relationships vary by race/ethnicity.

METHODS

Data on adults 18 and older come from the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (n = 35,881). Past-year discrimination was measured using the Experiences of Discrimination scale. Past 30-day exclusive, dual, and polytobacco use was measured as the mutually exclusive use of any combination of four types of tobacco products: cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems, other combustibles (i.e., cigars and pipe), and smokeless tobacco. Past-year TUD was defined according to DSM-5 criteria. Associations between discrimination and exclusive, dual, and polytobacco use and discrimination and TUD were estimated using multinomial logistic regression and logistic regression, respectively. Models were stratified by race/ethnicity (i.e., Hispanic, non-Hispanic (NH) White, NH Black, another race/ethnicity) to assess effect modification.

RESULTS

Adults who used tobacco and who had TUD was 24.2% and 19.2%, respectively. More discrimination was associated with higher odds of exclusive, dual, and polytobacco use as well as TUD. Models stratified by race/ethnicity suggest that discrimination was associated with dual/polytobacco use among NH Black adults (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.002-1.11) and NH White adults (OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.13-1.22). While more discrimination was associated with TUD among all racial/ethnic groups, the relationship was the strongest for NH White adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Discrimination was associated with more severe tobacco use outcomes among multiple racial/ethnic groups, but associations were the strongest for NH White adults.

Estimating the effect of latent time-varying count exposures using multiple lists

A major challenge in longitudinal built-environment health studies is the accuracy of commercial business databases that are used to characterize dynamic food environments. Different databases often provide conflicting exposure measures on the same subject due to different source credibilities. As on-site verification is not feasible for historical data, we suggest combining multiple databases to correct the bias in health effect estimates due to measurement error in any 1 datasource. We propose a joint model for the time-varying health outcomes, observed count exposures, and latent true count exposures. Our model estimates the time-specific quality of sources and incorporates time dependence of true count exposure by Poisson integer-valued first-order autoregressive process. We take a Bayesian nonparametric approach to flexibly account for location-specific exposures. By resolving the discordance between different databases, our method reduces the bias in the longitudinal health effect of the true exposures. Our method is demonstrated with childhood obesity data in California public schools with respect to convenience store exposures in school neighborhoods from 2001 to 2008.

Focused ultrasound ablation of melanoma with boiling histotripsy yields abscopal tumor control and antigen-dependent dendritic cell activation

Background

Boiling histotripsy (BH), a mechanical focused ultrasound ablation strategy, can elicit intriguing signatures of anti-tumor immunity. However, the influence of BH on dendritic cell function is unknown, compromising our ability to optimally combine BH with immunotherapies to control metastatic disease.

Methods

BH was applied using a sparse scan (1 mm spacing between sonications) protocol to B16F10-ZsGreen melanoma in bilateral and unilateral settings. Ipsilateral and contralateral tumor growth was measured. Flow cytometry was used to track ZsGreen antigen and assess how BH drives dendritic cell behavior.

Results

BH monotherapy elicited ipsilateral and abscopal tumor control in this highly aggressive model. Tumor antigen presence in immune cells in the tumor-draining lymph nodes (TDLNs) was ~3-fold greater at 24h after BH, but this abated by 96h. B cells, macrophages, monocytes, granulocytes, and both conventional dendritic cell subsets (i.e. cDC1s and cDC2s) acquired markedly more antigen with BH. BH drove activation of both cDC subsets, with activation being dependent upon tumor antigen acquisition. Our data also suggest that BH-liberated tumor antigen is complexed with damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs) and that cDCs do not traffic to the TDLN with antigen. Rather, they acquire antigen as it flows through afferent lymph vessels into the TDLN.

Conclusion

When applied with a sparse scan protocol, BH monotherapy elicits abscopal melanoma control and shapes dendritic cell function through several previously unappreciated mechanisms. These results offer new insight into how to best combine BH with immunotherapies for the treatment of metastatic melanoma.

Surrogacy validation for time-to-event outcomes with illness-death frailty models

A common practice in clinical trials is to evaluate a treatment effect on an intermediate outcome when the true outcome of interest would be difficult or costly to measure. We consider how to validate intermediate outcomes in a causally-valid way when the trial outcomes are time-to-event. Using counterfactual outcomes, those that would be observed if the counterfactual treatment had been given, the causal association paradigm assesses the relationship of the treatment effect on the surrogate outcome with the treatment effect on the true, primary outcome. In particular, we propose illness-death models to accommodate the censored and semicompeting risk structure of survival data. The proposed causal version of these models involves estimable and counterfactual frailty terms. Via these multistate models, we characterize what a valid surrogate would look like using a causal effect predictiveness plot. We evaluate the estimation properties of a Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo and assess the sensitivity of our model assumptions. Our motivating data source is a localized prostate cancer clinical trial where the two survival outcomes are time to distant metastasis and time to death.

Cigarette Prices and Disparities in Cessation in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Achieving cessation in people with established smoking patterns remains a challenge. Increasing cigarette prices has been one of the most effective strategies for lowering smoking rates. It remains unclear how effective it has been in encouraging cessation among adults in recent years and how the effectiveness varies by sociodemographic characteristics.

METHODS

Using repeated cross-sectional data collected by the Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey, we investigate the relationship between cigarette prices and cessation from 2003 to 2019 in adults 25+. We examine the associations between price and cessation in the population overall and by sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

We found mixed support for associations between greater local prices and cessation. Unadjusted models showed that greater local prices were associated with greater odds of cessation, but the associations did not persist after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. The associations did not significantly differ by respondent characteristics. Sensitivity analysis using alternative specifications and retail state price as the main predictor showed similar results. Sensitivity analysis with controls for e-cigarette use in the 2014-2019 period showed that greater local price was associated with cessation among adults with less than a high school degree. When stratified by year of data collection, results show that greater local prices were associated with cessation after 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the study adds to the conflicting evidence on the effectiveness of increasing prices on smoking cessation among adults with established smoking patterns.

IMPLICATIONS

Higher cigarette prices have been one of the most effective tools for lowering smoking prevalence. It remains unclear how effective they are in encouraging adults with established smoking patterns to quit. Results show that greater local prices were associated with higher odds of cessation, but the association did not persist after sociodemographic adjustment. In a sensitivity analysis, greater local price was associated with cessation among people with less than a high school degree in models controlling for e-cigarette use. We also found evidence that greater local price was associated with cessation after 2009. More comprehensive smoke-free coverage was also associated with greater odds of cessation. The study's results highlight that encouraging cessation among adults with an established smoking pattern remains a challenging policy problem even when cigarette prices rise.

Improving transportability of randomized controlled trial inference using robust prediction methods

Randomized trials have been the gold standard for assessing causal effects since their introduction by Fisher in the 1920s, since they can eliminate both observed and unobserved confounding. Estimates of causal effects at the population level from randomized controlled trials can still be biased if there are both effect modification and systematic differences between the trial sample and the ultimate population of inference with respect to these modifiers. Recent advances in the survey statistics literature to improve inference in nonprobability samples by using information from probability samples can provide an avenue for improving population causal inference in randomized controlled trials when relevant probability samples of the patient population are available. We review some recent work in "transporting" causal effect estimates from trials to populations, focusing on the setting where there is a "benchmark" or population-representative sample along with the RCT sample. We then propose estimators using either inverse probability weighting (IPWT) or prediction that can accommodate unequal probability of selection in the "benchmark" or population, and use Bayesian additive regression trees for both inverse probability of treatment weighting and prediction estimation that do not require specification of functional form or interaction. We also consider how the assumption of ignorability may be assessed from observed data and propose a sensitivity analysis under the failure of this assumption. We compare our proposed approach with existing methods in simulation and apply these alternative approaches to a study of pulmonary artery catheterization in critically ill patients. We also suggest next steps for future work.

A statewide population-based approach to examining Long COVID symptom prevalence and predictors in Michigan

OBJECTIVE

The current broad definition of Long COVID, and an overreliance on clinical and convenience samples, is leading to a wide array of Long COVID estimates with limited generalizability. Our objective was to examine Long COVID symptoms using a statewide population-based probability sample.

METHODS

Among 8000 sampled adults with polymerase-chain-reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 between June 2020 and July 2021 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System, 2533 completed our survey (response rate 32.2%). Using modified Poisson regression, we examined sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical predictors of eight Long COVID symptom clusters, defined as at least one applicable symptom lasting 90 or more days post COVID-19 onset.

RESULTS

Neuropsychiatric Long COVID symptoms, including brain fog, were most prevalent (23.7%), followed by systemic symptoms (17.1%), including fatigue, musculoskeletal (11.4%), pulmonary (10.4%), dermatologic (6.7%), cardiovascular (6.1%), gastrointestinal (5.4%), and ear, nose, and throat symptoms (5.3%). In adjusted analyses, female sex, a pre-existing psychological condition, and intensive care unit admission were strong predictors of most Long COVID symptom clusters. Older age was not associated with a higher prevalence of all symptoms - cardiovascular and dermatologic symptoms were most prevalent among middle-aged adults and age was not associated with neuropsychiatric or gastrointestinal symptoms. Additionally, there were fewer associations between pre-existing conditions and cardiovascular, neuropsychiatric, and dermatologic symptoms compared to other symptom clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

While many predictors of Long COVID symptom clusters were similar, the relationship with age and pre-existing conditions varied across clusters. Cardiovascular, neuropsychiatric, and dermatologic symptoms require further study as potentially distinct from other Long COVID symptoms.

Past-Year Use Prevalence of Cannabidiol, Cannabigerol, Cannabinol, and Δ8-Tetrahydrocannabinol Among US Adults

This survey study characterizes past-year use prevalence and factors associated with use of cannabidiol, cannabigerol, cannabinol, and Δ8-tetrahydrocannabinol among US adults.

Driving Skills at Licensure and Time to First Crash

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Young drivers are overrepresented in crashes, and newly licensed drivers are at high risk, particularly in the months immediately post-licensure. Using a virtual driving assessment (VDA) implemented in the licensing workflow in Ohio, this study examined how driving skills measured at the time of licensure contribute to crash risk post-licensure in newly licensed young drivers.

METHODS

This study examined 16 914 young drivers (<25 years of age) in Ohio who completed the VDA at the time of licensure and their subsequent police-reported crash records. By using the outcome of time to first crash, a Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the risk of a crash during the follow-up period as a function of VDA Driving Class (and Skill Cluster) membership.

RESULTS

The best performing No Issues Driving Class had a crash risk 10% lower than average (95% confidence interval [CI] 13% to 6%), whereas the Major Issues with Dangerous Behavior Class had a crash risk 11% higher than average (95% CI 1% to 22%). These results withstood adjusting for covariates (age, sex, and tract-level socioeconomic status indicators). At the same time, drivers licensed at age 18 had a crash risk 16% higher than average (95% CI 6% to 27%).

CONCLUSIONS

This population-level study reveals that driving skills measured at the time of licensure are a predictor of crashes early in licensure, paving the way for better prediction models and targeted, personalized interventions. The authors of future studies should explore time- and exposure-varying risks.

Differential care-seeking behaviors during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Michigan: a population-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in the spring of 2020, many Americans avoided the healthcare system, while those with COVID-19 symptoms were faced with decisions about seeking healthcare services for this novel virus.

METHODS

Using a probability sample (n = 1088) from the Michigan adult population of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases who were diagnosed prior to July 31, 2020, we used logistic regression to examine sociodemographic and symptom severity predictors of care-seeking behaviors. The analyses examined three different outcomes: (1) whether respondents sought care and, among those who sought care, whether they sought care from (2) a primary care provider or (3) an emergency room. Final models were adjusted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, income, education, marital status, living arrangement, health insurance, and self-reported symptom severity.

RESULTS

We found that participants ages 65 and older had 4.00 times higher odds of seeking care than 18-34-year-olds (95% CI: 2.21, 7.24), while adults reporting very severe symptoms had roughly 15 times higher odds of seeking care than those with mild symptoms (95% CI: 7.73, 27.01). Adults who were non-Hispanic Black or were uninsured had lower odds of seeking care from a primary care physician versus seeking care from other locations in comparison to adults who were non-Hispanic White or were privately insured, respectively (non-Hispanic Black: aOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.44; Uninsured: aOR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.42). Conversely, adults who were older or reported more severe symptoms had higher odds of seeking care from an emergency room versus other locations in comparison to adults who were younger or reported less severe symptoms (Age 65+: aOR = 2.96, 95% CI: 1.40, 6.28; Very Severe Symptoms: aOR = 6.63, 95% CI: 3.33, 13.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest differential utilization of healthcare services early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Further analyses are needed to examine the reasons for these differences.

Network Types and Functional Health in Old Age: It is Not Just the Size of the Network That Matters

OBJECTIVES

Findings on the effect of network size and support on functional health are mixed. We examine whether network types, that simultaneously incorporate multiple network characteristics, are associated with functional health in late life.

METHODS

Data are from the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (N = 3005). We estimated the longitudinal effect of membership in five multidimensional network types on disability in six activities of daily living using negative binomial regression, and on mobility (assessed using a timed walk test) using a generalized linear mixed model.

RESULTS

Compared to those in the large without strain network, older adults in the small, restricted, high contact network had fewer disabilities but worse mobility, while those in the large network with strain also had worse mobility.

DISCUSSION

Care plans focusing on function and mobility should consider multiple aspects of older adults' social networks including network size, diversity, and relationship strain.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Mental Health Problems and Tobacco and Cannabis Use Among US Emerging Adults

INTRODUCTION

Mental health problems in emerging adulthood are linked to tobacco and cannabis use, but whether race and ethnicity modifies these associations is unclear.

METHODS

We used data from wave 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (youth n = 6898, young adult n = 10,304) to conduct latent class analysis (LCA) of six past 30-day tobacco and cannabis use indicators (i.e., cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, blunts, cannabis vaping, other cannabis). We estimated associations between past 30-day internalizing and externalizing (i.e., low (referent), moderate, high) problems and latent classes of tobacco/cannabis use (vs. never/former use) using adjusted multinomial logistic regression. We explored whether associations varied by race and ethnicity through stratification.

RESULTS

We identified four exclusive use latent classes and two dual/poly use latent classes for both youth and young adult samples. Race/ethnicity-stratified models identified associations between internalizing/externalizing problems and most use classes for Hispanic and non-Hispanic White youth/young adults, with mixed results for non-Hispanic Black youth/young adults. For example, Hispanic (OR: 2.50, 95% CI: 1.09-5.74) and non-Hispanic White (OR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.18-3.06) youth with high internalizing problems had higher odds of ENDS + cannabis vaping. Externalizing problems were not associated with use among non-Hispanic Black youth while internalizing problems were not associated with use among non-Hispanic Black young adults.

CONCLUSION

We observed racial/ethnic variation in mental health problems and tobacco and cannabis use. Understanding mental health problem and tobacco product and cannabis use comorbidity may better inform culturally relevant interventions aimed to prevent and reduce use.

Systematic exclusion at study commencement masks earlier menopause for Black women in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN)

BACKGROUND

Shorter average lifespans for minoritized populations are hypothesized to stem from 'weathering' or accelerated health declines among minoritized individuals due to systemic marginalization. However, evidence is mixed on whether racial/ethnic differences exist in reproductive ageing, potentially due to selection biases in cohort studies that may systematically exclude 'weathered' participants. This study examines racial/ethnic disparities in the age of menopause after accounting for differential selection 'into' (left truncation) and 'out of' (right censoring) a cohort of midlife women.

METHODS

Using data from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) cross-sectional screener (N = 15 695) and accompanying ∼20-year longitudinal cohort (N = 3302) (1995-2016), we adjusted for potential selection bias using inverse probability weighting (left truncation) to account for socio-demographic/health differences between the screening and cohort study, and multiple imputation (right censoring) to estimate racial/ethnic differences in age at menopause (natural and surgical).

RESULTS

Unadjusted for selection, no Black/White differences in menopausal timing [hazard ratio (HR)=0.98 (0.86, 1.11)] were observed. After adjustment, Black women had an earlier natural [HR = 1.13 (1.00, 1.26)] and surgical [HR= 3.21 (2.80, 3.62)] menopause than White women with natural menopause-corresponding to a 1.2-year Black/White difference in menopause timing overall.

CONCLUSIONS

Failure to account for multiple forms of selection bias masked racial/ethnic disparities in the timing of menopause in SWAN. Results suggest that there may be racial differences in age at menopause and that selection particularly affected the estimated menopausal age for women who experienced earlier menopause. Cohorts should consider incorporating methods to account for all selection biases, including left truncation, as they impact our understanding of health in 'weathered' populations.

An experimental evaluation of a stopping rule aimed at maximizing cost-quality trade-offs in surveys

Surveys face difficult choices in managing cost-error trade-offs. Stopping rules for surveys have been proposed as a method for managing these trade-offs. A stopping rule will limit effort on a select subset of cases to reduce costs with minimal harm to quality. Previously proposed stopping rules have focused on quality with an implicit assumption that all cases have the same cost. This assumption is unlikely to be true, particularly when some cases will require more effort and, therefore, more costs than others. We propose a new rule that looks at both predicted costs and quality. This rule is tested experimentally against another rule that focuses on stopping cases that are expected to be difficult to recruit. The experiment was conducted on the 2020 data collection of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We test both Bayesian and non-Bayesian (maximum-likelihood or ML) versions of the rule. The Bayesian version of the prediction models uses historical data to establish prior information. The Bayesian version led to higher-quality data for roughly the same cost, while the ML version led to small reductions in quality with larger reductions in cost compared to the control rule.

Antibody-mediated phagocytosis in cancer immunotherapy

Unconjugated monoclonal antibodies (mAb) have revolutionized the treatment of many types of cancer. Some of these mAbs promote the clearance of malignant cells via direct cytotoxic effects. More recently, antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis (ADCP) has been appreciated as a major mechanism of action for a number of widely-used mAbs, including anti-CD20 (rituximab, obinutuzumab), anti-HER2 (trazituzumab), and anti-CD38 (daratumumab). However, as a monotherapy these ADCP-inducing mAbs produce insufficient levels of cytotoxicity in vivo and are not curative. As a result, these mAbs are most effectively used in combination therapies. The efficacy of these mAbs is further hampered by the apparent development of drug resistance by many patients. Here we will explore the role of ADCP in cancer immunotherapy and discuss the key factors that could limit the efficacy of ADCP-inducing mAbs in vivo. Finally, we will discuss current insights and approaches being applied to overcome these limitations.

Differential impact of the Canadian point-of-sale tobacco display bans on quit attempts and smoking cessation outcomes by sex, income and education: longitudinal findings from the ITC Canada Survey

SIGNIFICANCE

This study examines the differential effects of Canadian point-of-sale (POS) tobacco display bans across provinces on quit attempts and smoking cessation, by sex, education and income.

METHODS

We analysed survey data from five waves (waves 4-8) of the International Tobacco Control Canada Survey, a population-based, longitudinal survey, where provinces implemented display bans between 2004 and 2010. Primary outcomes were quit attempts and successful cessation. We used generalised estimating equation Poisson regression models to estimate associations between living in a province with or without a POS ban (with a 24-month threshold) and smoking outcomes. We tested whether these associations varied by sex, education and income by including interaction terms.

RESULTS

Across survey waves, the percentage of participants in provinces with POS bans established for more than 24 months increased from 5.0% to 95.8%. There was no association between POS bans and quit attempts for provinces with bans in place for 0-24 months or more than 24 months, respectively (adjusted relative risk (aRR)=0.99, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.10; 1.03, 95% CI: 0.88 to 1.20). However, we found a differential impact of POS bans on quit attempts by sex, whereby bans were more effective for women than men for bans of 0-24 months. Participants living in a province with a POS ban for at least 24 months had a higher chance of successful cessation (aRR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.08 to 2.05) compared with those in a province without a ban. We found no differences in the association between POS bans and quit attempts or cessation by education or income, and no differences by sex for cessation.

CONCLUSION

POS bans are associated with increased smoking cessation overall and more quit attempts among women than men.

Solutions for surrogacy validation with longitudinal outcomes for a gene therapy

Valid surrogate endpoints S can be used as a substitute for a true outcome of interest T to measure treatment efficacy in a clinical trial. We propose a causal inference approach to validate a surrogate by incorporating longitudinal measurements of the true outcomes using a mixed modeling approach, and we define models and quantities for validation that may vary across the study period using principal surrogacy criteria. We consider a surrogate-dependent treatment efficacy curve that allows us to validate the surrogate at different time points. We extend these methods to accommodate a delayed-start treatment design where all patients eventually receive the treatment. Not all parameters are identified in the general setting. We apply a Bayesian approach for estimation and inference, utilizing more informative prior distributions for selected parameters. We consider the sensitivity of these prior assumptions as well as assumptions of independence among certain counterfactual quantities conditional on pretreatment covariates to improve identifiability. We examine the frequentist properties (bias of point and variance estimates, credible interval coverage) of a Bayesian imputation method. Our work is motivated by a clinical trial of a gene therapy where the functional outcomes are measured repeatedly throughout the trial.

Efferocytosis by bone marrow mesenchymal stromal cells disrupts osteoblastic differentiation via mitochondrial remodeling

The efficient clearance of dead and dying cells, efferocytosis, is critical to maintain tissue homeostasis. In the bone marrow microenvironment (BMME), this role is primarily fulfilled by professional bone marrow macrophages, but recent work has shown that mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) act as a non-professional phagocyte within the BMME. However, little is known about the mechanism and impact of efferocytosis on MSCs and on their function. To investigate, we performed flow cytometric analysis of neutrophil uptake by ST2 cells, a murine bone marrow-derived stromal cell line, and in murine primary bone marrow-derived stromal cells. Transcriptional analysis showed that MSCs possess the necessary receptors and internal processing machinery to conduct efferocytosis, with Axl and Tyro3 serving as the main receptors, while MerTK was not expressed. Moreover, the expression of these receptors was modulated by efferocytic behavior, regardless of apoptotic target. MSCs derived from human bone marrow also demonstrated efferocytic behavior, showing that MSC efferocytosis is conserved. In all MSCs, efferocytosis impaired osteoblastic differentiation. Transcriptional analysis and functional assays identified downregulation in MSC mitochondrial function upon efferocytosis. Experimentally, efferocytosis induced mitochondrial fission in MSCs. Pharmacologic inhibition of mitochondrial fission in MSCs not only decreased efferocytic activity but also rescued osteoblastic differentiation, demonstrating that efferocytosis-mediated mitochondrial remodeling plays a critical role in regulating MSC differentiation. This work describes a novel function of MSCs as non-professional phagocytes within the BMME and demonstrates that efferocytosis by MSCs plays a key role in directing mitochondrial remodeling and MSC differentiation. Efferocytosis by MSCs may therefore be a novel mechanism of dysfunction and senescence. Since our data in human MSCs show that MSC efferocytosis is conserved, the consequences of MSC efferocytosis may impact the behavior of these cells in the human skeleton, including bone marrow remodeling and bone loss in the setting of aging, cancer and other diseases.

Exploring the Potential for Smoke-Free Laws to Reduce Smoking Disparities by Sexual Orientation in the USA

BACKGROUND

We examined associations between smoke-free laws and smoking outcomes in a nationally representative sample of US adults, including exploring whether these associations differed for heterosexual and sexual minority (SM) adults.

METHODS

We constructed county-level variables representing the percent of the population covered by state-, county-, or city-level smoke-free laws in workplaces and hospitality venues. We combined this information with restricted individual-level adult data with masked county identifiers from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), 2013-2018. We used modified Poisson regression to explore associations between each type of smoke-free law and the prevalence ratio (PR) of current smoking, and we used linear regression to explore associations with smoking intensity (mean cigarettes per day). We assessed interactions between smoke-free laws and SM status on the additive scale to determine whether associations were different for SM and heterosexual adults.

RESULTS

In adjusted models without interaction terms, smoke-free laws in hospitality venues were associated with lower prevalence of current smoking (PR = 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.89, 0.98). Both types of smoke-free laws were associated with lower mean cigarettes per day (workplace law change in mean =  - 0.50, 95% CI =  - 0.89, - 0.12; hospitality law change in mean =  - 0.72, 95% CI =  - 1.14,-0.30). We did not observe any statistically significant interactions by SM status, though statistical power was limited.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find evidence that smoke-free laws were differentially associated with smoking outcomes for heterosexual and SM adults. Additional studies are needed to further explore the potential for tobacco control policies to address the elevated risk of smoking in SM communities.

Latent Classes of Tobacco and Cannabis Use among Youth and Young Adults in the United States

Background: Research characterizing patterns of tobacco and cannabis use by product type and route of administration among youth and young adults (YAs) is limited. Methods: We conducted latent class analysis of tobacco and cannabis use (i.e., cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, blunts, cannabis vaping, and other cannabis use (without blunting/vaping)) among youth (ages 15-17) and YAs (ages 18-24) who used at least one product in the past 30 days, using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (Wave 4, 2016-2017). We used multinomial logistic regression models to examine associations between sociodemographic characteristics and use classes. Results: The latent use classes for youth included cigarettes (2.5%), ENDS (2.6%), blunts (2.5%), other cannabis (6.3%), ENDS + cannabis vaping (2.7%), and cigarettes + cigars + other cannabis (1.5%), while the latent use classes for YAs included cigarettes (11.7%), ENDS (3.9%), blunts (5.3%), other cannabis (7.0%), cigarettes + cigars (8.2%), and cigarettes + ENDS + cannabis vaping (4.9%). We compared use classes to never/former use for youth (82.0%) and YAs (59.0%) and found that they differed by each sociodemographic characteristic. For example, non-Hispanic Black YAs had higher odds of cigarettes + cigar use compared to non-Hispanic White YAs, whereas racial/ethnic minority youth and YAs had lower odds of other dual/poly use groups compared to their non-Hispanic White counterparts. Conclusions: We observed differences in use classes by sociodemographic characteristics for youth and YAs. Health professionals must consider tobacco and cannabis use patterns when implementing prevention and cessation interventions.

Racial/ethnic discrimination and tobacco and cannabis use outcomes among US adults

INTRODUCTION

Racial/ethnic discrimination (hereafter, discrimination) is associated with use of individual tobacco and cannabis products. However, we know little about how discrimination affects dual/polytobacco and cannabis use and associated use disorders.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional data on adults (18+) from the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (n = 35,744). We defined past-year discrimination as a summary scale (range: 0-24) based on six scenarios. We created a mutually exclusive six-category use variable: noncurrent, individual tobacco and noncannabis, individual tobacco and cannabis, individual cannabis and nontobacco, dual/polytobacco and noncannabis, and dual/polytobacco and cannabis based on past 30-day tobacco use of four products (i.e., cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems, other combustibles (cigars, pipe), smokeless tobacco) and cannabis use. We also examined past-year tobacco use disorder (TUD) and cannabis use disorder (CUD) as a four-level variable: no disorders, TUD only, CUD only, and TUD and CUD. We estimated associations between discrimination and each outcome using adjusted multinomial logistic regression and assessed effect modification by stratifying adjusted models by race/ethnicity (i.e., Hispanic, non-Hispanic (NH) White, NH Black, and another race/ethnicity).

RESULTS

Experiencing more discrimination was associated with each outcome but was most strongly associated with dual/polytobacco and cannabis use (OR: 1.13, 95 % CI: 1.07-1.19) and joint TUD and CUD (OR: 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.12-1.20). Models stratified by race/ethnicity showed that discrimination was associated with dual/polytobacco and cannabis only among NH White adults, and with joint TUD and CUD only among NH Black and NH White adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Discrimination was associated with tobacco and cannabis use outcomes among multiple adult racial/ethnic populations, but associations were more profound for NH White and NH Black adults than adults from other racial/ethnic populations.

Televised Anti-Tobacco Media and Smoking Outcomes Among Heterosexual and Sexual Minority Adults in the United States

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of smoking is higher among sexual minority (SM) individuals compared with heterosexuals. The impact of televised anti-tobacco mass media campaigns on smoking outcomes among SMs is not known.

AIMS

We examined whether televised anti-tobacco advertising was differentially associated with current smoking and smoking intensity for SM and heterosexual adults.

METHOD

We combined county-level anti-tobacco advertising data (gross rating points) with restricted, geocoded individual-level National Health Interview Survey data on smoking (2013-2015). We estimated associations between advertising and smoking outcomes, including potential effect modification by SM status.

RESULTS

Greater anti-tobacco advertising exposure was associated with lower smoking prevalence (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.94, 1.00]). Although the direction of the association differed for heterosexual and SM adults, differences were not statistically significant. No significant associations were observed with regard to smoking intensity.

CONCLUSION

Associations between anti-tobacco advertising and smoking were not significantly different for heterosexual and SM adults.

Deriving Priors for Bayesian Prediction of Daily Response Propensity in Responsive Survey Design: Historical Data Analysis Versus Literature Review

Responsive survey design (RSD) aims to increase the efficiency of survey data collection via live monitoring of paradata and the introduction of protocol changes when survey errors and increased costs seem imminent. Daily predictions of response propensity for all active sampled cases are among the most important quantities for live monitoring of data collection outcomes, making sound predictions of these propensities essential for the success of RSD. Because it relies on real-time updates of prior beliefs about key design quantities, such as predicted response propensities, RSD stands to benefit from Bayesian approaches. However, empirical evidence of the merits of these approaches is lacking in the literature, and the derivation of informative prior distributions is required for these approaches to be effective. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of two approaches to deriving prior distributions for the coefficients defining daily response propensity models to improve predictions of daily response propensity in a real data collection employing RSD. The first approach involves analyses of historical data from the same survey, and the second approach involves literature review. We find that Bayesian methods based on these two approaches result in higher-quality predictions of response propensity than more standard approaches ignoring prior information. This is especially true during the early-to-middle periods of data collection, when survey managers using RSD often consider interventions.

Patterns and predictors of depressive and anxiety symptoms within a population-based sample of adults diagnosed with COVID-19 in Michigan

PURPOSE

The COVID-19 pandemic has had wide-ranging impacts on mental health, however, less is known about predictors of mental health outcomes among adults who have experienced a COVID-19 diagnosis. We examined the intersection of demographic, economic, and illness-related predictors of depressive and anxiety symptoms within a population-based sample of adults diagnosed with COVID-19 in the U.S. state of Michigan early in the pandemic.

METHODS

Data were from a population-based survey of Michigan adults who experienced a COVID-19 diagnosis prior to August 1, 2020 (N = 1087). We used weighted prevalence estimates and multinomial logistic regression to examine associations between mental health outcomes (depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and comorbid depressive/anxiety symptoms) and demographic characteristics, pandemic-associated changes in accessing basic needs (accessing food/clean water and paying important bills), self-reported COVID-19 symptom severity, and symptom duration.

RESULTS

Relative risks for experiencing poor mental health outcomes varied by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and income. In adjusted models, experiencing a change in accessing basic needs associated with the pandemic was associated with higher relative risks for anxiety and comorbid anxiety/depressive symptoms. Worse COVID-19 symptom severity was associated with a higher burden of comorbid depressive/anxiety symptoms. "Long COVID" (symptom duration greater than 60 days) was associated with all outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Adults diagnosed with COVID-19 may face overlapping risk factors for poor mental health outcomes, including pandemic-associated disruptions to household and economic wellbeing, as well as factors related to COVID-19 symptom severity and duration. An integrated approach to treating depressive/anxiety symptoms among COVID-19 survivors is warranted.

Incorporating Covariates into Measures of Surrogate Paradox Risk

Clinical trials often collect intermediate or surrogate endpoints other than their true endpoint of interest. It is important that the treatment effect on the surrogate endpoint accurately predicts the treatment effect on the true endpoint. There are settings in which the proposed surrogate endpoint is positively correlated with the true endpoint, but the treatment has opposite effects on the surrogate and true endpoints, a phenomenon labeled "surrogate paradox". Covariate information may be useful in predicting an individual's risk of surrogate paradox. In this work, we propose methods for incorporating covariates into measures of assessing the risk of surrogate paradox using the meta-analytic causal association framework. The measures calculate the probability that a treatment will have opposite effects on the surrogate and true endpoints and determine the size of a positive treatment effect on the surrogate endpoint that would reduce the risk of a negative treatment effect on the true endpoint as a function of covariates, allowing the effects of covariates on the surrogate and true endpoint to vary across trials.

Rituximab induced cytokine release with high serum IP-10 (CXCL10) concentrations is associated with infusion reactions

Monoclonal antibody induced infusion reactions (IRs) can be serious and even fatal. We used clinical data and blood samples from 37 treatment naïve patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL) initiating therapy for progressive disease with a single 50 mg dose of intravenous (IV) rituximab at 25 mg/h. Twenty-four (65 %) patients had IRs at a median of 78 min (range 35-128) and rituximab dose of 32 mg (range 15-50). IR risk did not correlate with patient or CLL characteristics, CLL counts or CD20 levels, or serum rituximab or complement concentrations. Thirty-five (95 %) patients had cytokine release response with a ≥ 4-fold increase in serum concentration of ≥ 1 inflammatory cytokine. IRs were associated with significantly higher post-infusion serum concentrations of gamma interferon induced cytokines IP-10, IL-6 and IL-8. IP-10 concentrations increased ≥ 4-fold in all patients with an IR and were above the upper limit of detection (40,000 pg/ml) in 17 (71 %). In contrast, to only three (23 %) patients without an IR had an ≥ 4-fold increase in serum concentrations of IP-10 (highest 22,013 pg/ml). Our data suggest that cytokine release could be initiated by activation of effector cells responsible for clearance of circulating CLL cells with IRs occurring in those with higher levels of gamma interferon induced cytokines. These novel insights could inform future research to better understand and manage IRs and understand the role of cytokines in the control of cytotoxic immune responses to mAb.

Penalized Spline-Involved Tree-based (PenSIT) Learning for estimating an optimal dynamic treatment regime using observational data

Dynamic treatment regimes are a set of time-adaptive decision rules that can be used to personalize treatment across multiple stages of care. Grounded in causal inference methods, dynamic treatment regimes identify variables that differentiate the treatment effect and may be used to tailor treatments across individuals based on the patient's own characteristics - thereby representing an important step toward personalized medicine. In this manuscript we introduce Penalized Spline-Involved Tree-based Learning, which seeks to improve upon existing tree-based approaches to estimating an optimal dynamic treatment regime. Instead of using weights determined from the estimated propensity scores, which may result in unstable estimates when weights are highly variable, we predict missing counterfactual outcomes using regression models that incorporate a penalized spline of the propensity score and other covariates predictive of the outcome. We further develop a novel purity measure applied within a decision tree framework to produce a flexible yet interpretable method for estimating an optimal multi-stage multi-treatment dynamic treatment regime. In simulation experiments we demonstrate good performance of Penalized Spline-Involved Tree-based Learning relative to competing methods and, in particular, we show that Penalized Spline-Involved Tree-based Learning may be advantageous when the sample size is small and/or when the level of confounding of the outcome is high. We apply Penalized Spline-Involved Tree-based Learning to the retrospectively-collected Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care dataset to identify variables that may be used to tailor early fluid resuscitation strategies in septic patients.

Impact of the Tips From Former Smokers Anti-Smoking Media Campaign on Youth Smoking Behaviors and Anti-Tobacco Attitudes

INTRODUCTION

Anti-tobacco media campaigns can prevent youth smoking, but there is little research on how adult-targeted campaigns affect youth. We investigated the association between the Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign and youth smoking behaviors and anti-tobacco attitudes, and variation by sex, race and/or ethnicity, or socioeconomic status.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used data from the monitoring of the future study, a nationally representative survey on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders, from 2013-2015. Quartiles of Tips gross rating points (GRPs) were used to estimate exposure. Youth smoking behavior outcomes included smoking prevalence, initiation, and susceptibility. The anti-tobacco attitude outcomes included the extent that anti-tobacco ads made participants (1) less favorable towards smoking or (2) less likely to smoke cigarettes. Modified Poisson regression models estimated average marginal effects; separate additive interactions between Tips GRP exposure and sex, race and/or ethnicity, parents' highest education, and college plans (12th graders only) were used to test for effect modification.

RESULTS

Tips GRPs were not associated with smoking behaviors within any grade. However, 12th graders in the highest quartile of Tips had a 7.0 percentage point higher probability (95% CI = 0.023-0.116) of responding that anti-tobacco ads made them less likely to smoke. Tips GRPs were associated with a lower probability of past 30-day smoking prevalence among 10th grade females, but not males (joint P-value = .002). No additional statistically significant interactions were found for any other outcomes for any grade.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed the potential for adult-targeted campaigns to increase youth's anti-smoking attitudes, but campaign exposure was not associated with smoking behaviors.

IMPLICATIONS

Few studies have examined the potential for anti-smoking media campaigns to influence audiences outside their targeted audience. In this study, we show the potential for adult-targeted campaigns to impact youth and suggest that Tips exposure may promote anti-smoking attitudes among youth.

Study Selection Bias and Racial or Ethnic Disparities in Estimated Age at Onset of Cardiometabolic Disease Among Midlife Women in the US

Importance

Racial disparities in cardiometabolic health are consistently observed in cohort studies. However, most studies neither evaluate differences in age at onset nor account for systematic exclusion stemming from "weathering" (accelerated health declines for minoritized groups due to structural social and economic marginalization).

Objective

To evaluate racial or ethnic disparities in age at onset of 4 cardiometabolic outcomes (hypertension, isolated systolic hypertension [ISH], insulin resistance [IR], and diabetes), accounting for multiple forms of potential selection bias.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation longitudinal cohort (1995-2016) and a cross-sectional screening sample (1995-1997). Data were analyzed from July 2019 to October 2021. Participants were eligible for the cohort if they were aged 42 to 52 years, had not received hormone therapy in the past 3 months, were not pregnant, had an intact uterus and at least 1 ovary, and were premenopausal or early perimenopausal (most recent menses ≤3 months).

Exposures

Self-reported racial or ethnic group (Black, Chinese, Hispanic, Japanese, or White).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were hypertension (systolic blood pressure [BP] ≥140 mm Hg and diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg or use of antihypertensive medication), ISH (systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg and diastolic BP <90 mm Hg or use of antihypertensive medication), IR (homeostasis model assessment for IR value >5.9 or insulin use), and diabetes (fasting serum glucose level ≥126 mg/dL [to convert to mmol/L, multiply by 0.0555], use of insulin or oral antidiabetic medication, or physician diagnosis). Selection into the cohort was addressed via inverse probability weighting and interval-censored survival models and selection out via multiple imputation. Accelerated failure time models were used to examine racial or ethnic differences in age at disease onset and estimate the median age at onset.

Results

A total of 3302 women were included in the study, with a median age of 46.2 years (range, 42-52 years) at baseline. In the sample, 42.6% had a bachelor's degree or higher and 36.3% self-rated their health as "very good" at baseline; 23.9% had hypertension, 43.7% had ISH, 13.5% had IR, and 4.6% had diabetes at baseline. Hypertension occurred a median of 5.0 years (95% CI, 5.4-5.5 years) earlier and metabolic outcomes (diabetes and IR) a median of 11.3 years (95% CI, 9.7-12.9 years) earlier for Black and Hispanic women vs White women; ISH occurred a median of 7.7 years (95% CI, 7.3-8.1 years) earlier for Black women vs White women. Adjustment for selection was associated with a mean 20-year decrease in estimated median age at onset, with greater decreases among Black and Hispanic women.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this multiracial cohort of midlife women, failure to account for selection biases, especially at study onset, was associated with falsely high estimates of age at cardiometabolic onset, with greater misestimation among Black and Hispanic women. The results suggest that hypertension and metabolic interventions, particularly for Black and Hispanic women, should be targeted to women aged as young as 30 years for hypertension and 40 years for metabolic interventions. Considering the timing of disease and fully addressing inherent selection biases in research are critical to understanding aging and disease risk, especially for racial and ethnic minoritized populations.

Obesity Incidence in U.S. Children and Young Adults: A Pooled Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Obesity prevalence among children and adolescents has risen sharply, yet there is a limited understanding of the age-specific dynamics of obesity as there is no single nationally representative cohort following children into young adulthood. Investigators constructed a pooled data set of 5 nationally representative panels and modeled age-specific obesity incidence from childhood into young adulthood.

METHODS

This longitudinal prospective follow-up used 718,560 person-years of observation in a pooled data set of 5 high-quality nationally representative panels-National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and 1997, National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, and Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten cohorts of 1998 and 2011-constructed by the authors, covering 1980-2016. Differences in obesity incidence across birth cohorts and disparities in obesity incidence by sex and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White) were tested in multivariate models. Data were analyzed from September 2018 to October 2021.

RESULTS

Obesity incidence increased by approximately 6% for each 1 year of age (hazard ratio=1.06, 95% CI=1.05, 1.07); however, incidence was nonlinear, exhibiting an inverted "U"-shaped pattern before 15 years of age and then rising from adolescence through 30 years. Obesity incidence more than doubled between the cohorts born in 1957-1965 and those born in 1974-1985 during adolescence. There was no significant change among those born in 1991-1994 and 2003-2006 up to age 15 years. Compared with non-Hispanic White children, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic children had higher obesity incidence in all study cohorts. The magnitude of these disparities on the relative scale remained stable throughout the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Although many children become obese before the age of 10, obesity incidence rises from about 15 years into early adulthood, suggesting that interventions are required at multiple developmental stages.

The anchoring method: Estimation of interviewer effects in the absence of interpenetrated sample assignment

Methodological studies of the effects that human interviewers have on the quality of survey data have long been limited by a critical assumption: that interviewers in a given survey are assigned random subsets of the larger overall sample (also known as interpenetrated assignment). Absent this type of study design, estimates of interviewer effects on survey measures of interest may reflect differences between interviewers in the characteristics of their assigned sample members, rather than recruitment or measurement effects specifically introduced by the interviewers. Previous attempts to approximate interpenetrated assignment have typically used regression models to condition on factors that might be related to interviewer assignment. We introduce a new approach for overcoming this lack of interpenetrated assignment when estimating interviewer effects. This approach, which we refer to as the "anchoring" method, leverages correlations between observed variables that are unlikely to be affected by interviewers ("anchors") and variables that may be prone to interviewer effects to remove components of within-interviewer correlations that lack of interpenetrated assignment may introduce. We consider both frequentist and Bayesian approaches, where the latter can make use of information about interviewer effect variances in previous waves of a study, if available. We evaluate this new methodology empirically using a simulation study, and then illustrate its application using real survey data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), where interviewer IDs are provided on public-use data files. While our proposed method shares some of the limitations of the traditional approach - namely the need for variables associated with the outcome of interest that are also free of measurement error - it avoids the need for conditional inference and thus has improved inferential qualities when the focus is on marginal estimates, and it shows evidence of further reducing overestimation of larger interviewer effects relative to the traditional approach.

Novel use of a virtual driving assessment to classify driver skill at the time of licensure

Motor vehicle crash rates are highest immediately after licensure, and driver error is one of the leading causes. Yet, few studies have quantified driving skills at the time of licensure, making it difficult to identify at-risk drivers before independent driving. Using data from a virtual driving assessment implemented into the licensing workflow in Ohio, this study presents the first population-level study classifying degree of skill at the time of licensure and validating these against a measure of on-road performance: license exam outcomes. Principal component and cluster analysis of 33,249 virtual driving assessments identified 20 Skill Clusters that were then grouped into 4 major summary "Driving Classes"; i) No Issues (i.e. careful and skilled drivers); ii) Minor Issues (i.e. an average new driver with minor vehicle control skill deficits); iii) Major Issues (i.e. drivers with more control issues and who take more risks); and iv) Major Issues with Aggression (i.e. drivers with even more control issues and more reckless and risk-taking behavior). Category labels were determined based on patterns of VDA skill deficits alone (i.e. agnostic of the license examination outcome). These Skill Clusters and Driving Classes had different distributions by sex and age, reflecting age-related licensing policies (i.e. those under 18 and subject to GDL and driver education and training), and were differentially associated with subsequent performance on the on-road licensing examination (showing criterion validity). The No Issues and Minor Issues classes had lower than average odds of failing, and the other two more problematic Driving Classes had higher odds of failing. Thus, this study showed that license applicants can be classified based on their driving skills at the time of licensure. Future studies will validate these Skill Cluster classes in relation to their prediction of post-licensure crash outcomes.

Role of CD73 on peritoneal macrophages in age-associated immune dysfunction and tumor immunity

Aging is a major risk factor for cancer and many other life-threatening diseases due in part to a wide range of age-associated immune dysfunctions. In the context of cancer, chronic, low-grade inflammation seen with aging is thought to contribute to cellular transformation and tumorigenesis. Tissue resident macrophages (TRM) are key innate immune regulators of the inflammatory milieu in all tissues, and studies from our laboratory have shown that expression of the 5’-ectonucleotidase CD73 on macrophages suppresses inflammatory responses and promotes the resolution of tissue inflammation in the lung and peritoneum. However, the role of CD73 on TRM in modulating inflammation during aging or how age-associated changes in CD73 on TRM contribute to cancer development are not known. We have found that large peritoneal macrophages from aged mice (18+ months) show significantly increased levels of surface CD73 compared to young mice (&lt;4 months). To test the role of CD73 in regulating inflammation in vivo, we utilized mouse models of ovarian cancer and peritonitis. Our preliminary studies suggest that blocking CD73 in aged mice reduces LPS-mediated production of TNF-a in vivo and ex vivo when compared to young mice. In addition, we found that treatment of ID8-Def29/Vegf-a tumor-bearing mice with anti-CD73 monoclonal antibody significantly prolongs the survival of aged mice compared to young mice. In ongoing experiments, we are utilizing conditional deletion approaches to address the role of CD73 specifically on macrophages in these models. Results from this study will provide insight into the immunoregulatory role of CD73 on TRM during aging and cancer, and will help refine therapeutic approaches targeting CD73 in cancer immunotherapy.

Supported by NIH grants T32 AI007496 and R01 AI114554.

Licensing Examination and Crash Outcomes Postlicensure in Young Drivers

IMPORTANCE

Despite US graduated driver licensing laws, young novice driver crash rates remain high. Study findings suggest comprehensive license policy that mandates driver education including behind-the-wheel (BTW) training may reduce crashes postlicensure. However, only 15 states mandate BTW training.

OBJECTIVE

To identify differences in licensing and crash outcomes for drivers younger than 18 years who are subject to comprehensive licensing requirements (graduated driver licensing, driver education, and BTW training) vs those aged 18 to 24 years who are exempt from these requirements.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective, population-based cohort study used Ohio licensing data to define a cohort of 2018 license applicants (age 16-24 years, n = 136 643) and tracked licensed driver (n = 129 897) crash outcomes up to 12 months postlicensure. The study was conducted from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019, and data analysis was performed from October 7, 2019, to February 11, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Licensing examination performance and population-based, police-reported crash rates in the first 2 months and 12 months postlicensure across age groups, sex, and census tract-level sociodemographic variables were measured. Poisson regression models compared newly licensed driver crash rates, with reference to individuals licensed at 18 years, while controlling for census tract-level sociodemographic factors, time spent in the learner permit period, and licensing examination performance measures.

RESULTS

Of 136 643 novice drivers, 69 488 (50.9%) were male and 67 152 (49.1%) were female. Mean (SD) age at enrollment (age at first on-road examination) was 17.7 (2.1) years. License applicants aged 16 and 17 years performed best on license examinations (15 466 [21.6%] and 5112 [30.9%] failing vs 7981 [37.5%] of applicants aged 18 years). Drivers licensed at 18 years had the highest crash rates of all those younger than 25 years. Compared with drivers licensed at 18 years, crash rates were 27% lower in individuals aged 16 years and 14% lower in those aged 17 years during the first 2 months postlicensure when controlling for socioeconomic status, time spent in learner permit status, and license examination performance measures (adjusted relative risk [aRR] at age 16 years: 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80; age 17 years: aRR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.96). At 12 months postlicensure, crash rates were 19% lower for individuals licensed at age 16 years (aRR, 0.81; 95%, CI, 0.77-0.85) and 6% lower at age 17 years (aRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99) compared with individuals aged 18 years.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In Ohio, drivers younger than 18 years who are subject to graduated driver licensing and driver education, including BTW training requirements, had lower crash rates in the first year postlicensure compared with those aged 18 years, with controls applied. These findings suggest that it may be fruitful for future work to reconsider the value of mandated driver license policies, including BTW training, and to examine reasons for delayed licensure and barriers to accessing training.

Tobacco 21 laws may reduce smoking and tobacco-related health disparities among youth in the U.S

The goal of our study is to understand the impact of Tobacco 21 (T21) laws on youth smoking and health equity. We conducted modified Poisson regression models using 2014-2019 Monitoring the Future data to measure the impact of attending school in a county 100% covered by a T21 law versus counties with <100% T21 coverage on past 30-day smoking participation (n = 262,632), first cigarette smoking initiation (n = 189,698), and daily smoking initiation among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders (n = 214,496), separately. Additive interactions were tested between T21 coverage and sex, race/ethnicity, parental education, and college plans. T21 coverage was associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among 12th graders. T21 coverage was most strongly associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among: Hispanic and NH (Non-Hispanic) Other/Multiracial individuals; respondents with parents who had less than a college education; and respondents who were not definitely planning on attending college. T21 laws were associated with a lower likelihood of smoking participation among 12th graders. T21 policies were most impactful for individuals disproportionately impacted by tobacco, indicating T21 laws might help reduce tobacco-related health disparities.

A longitudinal analysis of smoke-free laws and smoking initiation disparities among young adults in the United States

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tobacco control policies may differentially impact smoking initiation among socio-demographic groups. We measured longitudinal associations between exposure to smoke-free laws in grade 12 (modal age 18 years) and patterns of smoking initiation in the United States.

DESIGN

Prospective longitudinal analysis.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We used data on US young adults sampled at modal age 18 years from the Monitoring the Future Survey. Baseline data were collected between 2000 and 2017, with the last year of follow-up in 2018. The sample number varied by outcome and time-point, ranging from 7314 to 17 702.

MEASUREMENTS

Smoke-free law coverage in work-places and hospitality venues (restaurants/bars) was measured as the percentage of the county population covered by each type of law. We examined associations with any past 30-day smoking initiation and daily smoking initiation at modal ages 19/20, 21/22 and 23/24, using Poisson regression and calculating average marginal effects. We explored effect modification by sex, race/ethnicity and parental education by testing the significance of interaction terms.

FINDINGS

Work-place law coverage at modal age 18 was associated with a lower probability of daily smoking initiation at modal ages 21/22 [-2.4 percentage points (p.p.); 95% confidence interval (CI) = -3.9, -0.9] and 23/24 (-2.0 p.p.; 95% CI = -3.9, -0.2). Hospitality law coverage was associated with a lower probability of daily smoking initiation at modal ages 19/20 (-1.6 p.p.; 95% CI = -2.8, -0.4), 21/22 (-2.3 p.p.; 95% CI = -3.7, -0.9) and 23/24 (-1.8 p.p.; 95% CI = -3.6, -0.0). Findings were inconclusive with regard to associations with any past 30-day smoking initiation and with regard to effect modification, after adjusting for multiple testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to smoke-free laws at age 18 appears to be prospectively associated with reduced daily smoking initiation 1-6 years later.

Cigarette Pack Price and Its Within-Person Association With Smoking Initiation, Smoking Progression, and Disparities among Young Adults

BACKGROUND

There is a dearth of research on within-person relationships between tobacco price and cigarette smoking initiation and progression in young adulthood. This project examines the within-person association between cigarette pack price and smoking initiation and progression between age 18 and 21/22, focusing on differences across subgroups.

METHODS

Data came from the longitudinal Monitoring the Future (MTF) project. MTF examines drug use behaviors with nationally representative samples of 12th graders annually. Subsamples of 12th graders are annually selected and followed longitudinally. Among 12th graders from baseline years 2000-2014, we examined past 30-day cigarette smoking initiation among baseline never smokers (N = 15 280) and progression to daily smoking among youth who were not daily smokers at baseline (N = 26 998). We used hierarchical logistic regression and interaction terms to assess differences across sex, race/ethnicity, and parental education.

RESULTS

The within-person relationship between pack price and smoking indicated that a one-dollar increase in pack price corresponded with a 72% decrease in the odds of initiation (AOR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.18, 0.44) and 70% decrease in the odds of progression to daily smoking (AOR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.21, 0.44). There was a linear age trend for both smoking initiation and progression. There were no statistically significant interactions between price and demographics, making it difficult to disentangle differences across subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to increased cigarette prices during young adulthood was associated with lower odds of cigarette smoking initiation and progression. Additional policies and programs beyond cigarettes prices could help reduce tobacco-related disparities in smoking initiation and progression among young adults.

IMPLICATIONS

There is a strong, within-person relationship between cigarette prices and smoking initiation and progression during the transition to young adulthood: higher prices are associated with decreased odds of both initiation and progression. Cigarette taxation can help to prevent smoking initiation and progression among youth, but it is less clear how taxes are associated with disparities in smoking experienced by certain subgroups. We could not draw definitive conclusions about the impact of cigarette prices on tobacco-related disparities. Tobacco taxes should be increased on a regular basis to ensure young adults experience within-person increases in prices, and complementary programs geared toward reducing tobacco-related disparities among young adults should be promoted.

Who looks on the bright side? Optimistic and pessimistic perceptual-response reflexes over American adulthood

Research suggests that the way individuals are oriented towards the future is deeply embedded in their psychology, shaping how they perceive and react to opportunities and threats, even at unconscious levels. We argue that exposures to opportunities and threats over the life course can shape future orientation at a deep level, and that word-valence effects to survey questions indicate optimistic and pessimistic "perceptual-response reflexes" that are manifestations of unconscious dispositions. Using data collected over 25 years in the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) study we analyze variation in word-valence effects by age, birth cohort, gender, and race. The broad adult age-range of the sample and the length of follow-up permits the examination of birth cohorts ranging from the "First Children of the 20th Century" (born before 1917) to "Baby Boomers" (born 1947-1962). We find notable differences in age-graded trends across two overarching birth cohort groups: those who reached high school age before the Supreme Court's landmark Brown vs Board of Education decision in 1954 (i.e., born before 1932) and after (i.e., born in 1932 and later). Age-related trends in optimistic perceptual response diverge notably for women versus men, and for Black versus White Americans. Trends in pessimistic perceptual response differ from trends in optimistic response. For example, in early adulthood Black Americans score higher on both optimistic and pessimistic response patterns than White Americans. Birth-cohort differences in both outcomes vary by gender and race. Those differences are interpreted in terms of changes in political, demographic, and sociocultural contexts.

The highly selective Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor acalabrutinib leaves macrophage phagocytosis intact

Not available.

Gas6 induces inflammation and reduces plaque burden but worsens behavior in a sex-dependent manner in the APP/PS1 model of Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease is the leading cause of dementia worldwide. TAM receptor tyrosine kinases (Tyro3, Axl, MerTK) are known for their role in engagement of phagocytosis and modulation of inflammation, and recent evidence suggests a complex relationship between Axl, Mer, and microglial phagocytosis of amyloid plaques in AD. Gas6, the primary CNS TAM ligand, reduces neuroinflammation and improves outcomes in murine models of CNS disease. Therefore, we hypothesized that AAV-mediated overexpression of Gas6 would alleviate plaque pathology, reduce neuroinflammation, and improve behavior in the APP/PS1 model of Alzheimer's disease.

METHODS

Adeno-associated viral vectors were used to overexpress Gas6 in the APP/PS1 model of Alzheimer's disease. Nine-month-old male and female APP/PS1 and nontransgenic littermates received bilateral stereotactic hippocampal injections of AAV-Gas6 or AAV-control, which expresses a non-functional Gas6 protein. One month after injections, mice underwent a battery of behavioral tasks to assess cognitive function and brains were processed for immunohistochemical and transcriptional analyses.

RESULTS

Gas6 overexpression reduced plaque burden in male APP/PS1 mice. However, contrary to our hypothesis, Gas6 increased pro-inflammatory microglial gene expression and worsened contextual fear conditioning compared to control-treated mice. Gas6 overexpression appeared to have no effect on phagocytic mechanisms in vitro or in vivo as measured by CD68 immunohistochemistry, microglial methoxy-04 uptake, and primary microglial uptake of fluorescent fibrillar amyloid beta.

CONCLUSION

Our data describes a triad of worsened behavior, reduced plaque number, and an increase in proinflammatory signaling in a sex-specific manner. While Gas6 has historically induced anti-inflammatory signatures in the peripheral nervous system, our data suggest an alternative, proinflammatory role in the context of Alzheimer's disease pathology.

Multidimensional Social Network Types and Their Correlates in Older Americans

Background and Objectives

Social support networks of older adults have been linked to their health and well-being; however, findings regarding the effects of specific network characteristics have been mixed. Additionally, due to demographic shifts increasing numbers of older adults live outside of traditional family structures. Previous studies have not systematically examined the resulting complexity and heterogeneity of older adults’ social networks. Our objectives were to examine this complexity and heterogeneity by developing a multidimensional typology of social networks that simultaneously considers multiple structural and functional network characteristics, and to examine differences in network type membership by sociodemographic characteristics, health characteristics, and birth cohort.

Research Design and Methods

Participants included 5,192 adults aged 57–85 years in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project at rounds 1 (2005–2006) and 3 (2015–2016). Data were collected on social relationships including network size, diversity, frequency of contact, and perceived support and strain in relationships. We used latent class analysis to derive the network typology and multinomial logistic regression to examine differences in network type membership by sociodemographic characteristics, health characteristics, and birth cohort.

Results

Older adults were classified into 5 distinct social network types: (i) large, with strain; (ii) large, without strain; (iii) small, diverse, low contact; (iv) small, restricted, high contact; and (v) medium size and support. Membership in these network types varied by age, gender, marital status, race/ethnicity, education, mental health, and birth cohort.

Discussion and Implications

Network typologies can elucidate the varied interpersonal environments of older adults and identify individuals who lack social connectedness on multiple network dimensions and are therefore at a higher risk of social isolation.

Are sexual minority adults differentially exposed to smoke-free laws and televised anti-tobacco media campaigns compared to the general US population? A descriptive analysis

BACKGROUND

Sexual minority (SM) (gay, lesbian and bisexual) adults are at higher risk of smoking compared with heterosexual individuals, yet little is known about how the tobacco control policy landscape interacts with sexual orientation smoking disparities.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive analysis to explore differential exposure to smoke-free laws and televised anti-tobacco media using two sources of national data from the United States: Census data on same-sex couple households/all households and data on SM adults/all adults from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). We combined this information with variables representing the proportion of individuals in each county covered by smoke-free laws (2013-2017), and average county-level exposure to televised anti-tobacco media campaigns (2013-2015). We compared average coverage levels for SM populations to average coverage levels for the broader US population.

RESULTS

Between 2013 and 2017, same-sex couple households/SM adults lived in counties with higher levels of smoke-free law coverage compared with all US households/adults for workplaces (Census: 71.3% vs 68.0%; NHIS: 70.7% vs 67.9%) and hospitality venues (Census: 82.3% vs 77.0%; NHIS: 80.5% vs 77.2%). There were no consistent differences in exposures to anti-tobacco media campaigns across datasets.

CONCLUSIONS

SM adults may be more likely to live in areas with smoke-free laws, compared with the general population. Findings point to the need to examine other potential drivers of smoking in SM populations.

Smoke-Free Laws and Disparities in Youth Smoking in the U.S., 2001-2018

INTRODUCTION

This study examines whether smoke-free laws are differentially associated with youth smoking outcomes by parental education, race/ethnicity, sex, and college plans in a U.S.

METHODS

This study assessed the relationships between smoke-free laws in workplaces and hospitality venues (restaurants/bars) and past 30-day smoking participation, first cigarette initiation, and daily smoking initiation within a repeated cross-sectional sample of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders from the Monitoring the Future study. Data were collected between 2001 and 2018 and were analyzed in 2020-2021. Grade-stratified Poisson models were used to calculate prevalence ratios and average marginal effects, incorporating interaction terms to examine differential associations across groups.

RESULTS

Hospitality smoke-free laws were significantly associated with lower probabilities of smoking participation in all grades as well as with first cigarette and daily smoking initiation in 8th and 10th grade. Workplace smoke-free laws were associated with lower probabilities of smoking participation among 10th and 12th graders as well as with first cigarette and daily smoking initiation among 10th graders. Average marginal effects ranged from -0.4 percentage points (hospitality laws and daily smoking initiation in 8th and 10th grades) to -2.2 percentage points (workplace laws and smoking participation in 10th grade). Associations between smoke-free laws and a lower probability of smoking participation were most pronounced among students who definitely planned to attend college. Other instances of effect modification suggested more pronounced associations for students who were female and from high-SES households; however, relationships varied by grade.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoke-free laws were associated with reduced smoking among youth; however, associations varied by grade, sex, parental education, and college plans.