Methodology for adapting a co-created early childhood development intervention and implementation strategies for use by frontline workers in India and Guatemala: a systematic application of the FRAME-IS framework

There is little evidence on optimizing the effectiveness and implementation of evidence-based early childhood development (ECD) interventions when task-shifted to frontline workers. In this Methods Forum paper, we describe our adaptation of the International Guide for Monitoring Child Development (GMCD) for task-shifting to frontline workers in Guatemala and India. In 2021-2022, implementers, trainers, frontline workers, caregivers, and international GMCD experts collaborated to adapt the GMCD for a task shifted implementation by frontline workers. We used an eight-step co-creating process: assembling a multidisciplinary team, training on the existing package, working groups to begin modifications, revision of draft modifications, tailoring of visual materials and language, train-the-trainers activities, pilot frontline worker trainings, final review and feedback. Preliminary effectiveness of adaptations was evaluated through narrative notes and group-based qualitative feedback following pilot trainings with 16 frontline workers in India and 6 in Guatemala. Final adaptations included: refining training techniques to match skill levels and learning styles of frontline workers; tailoring all visual materials to local languages and contexts; design of job aids for providing developmental support messages; modification of referral and triage processes for children in need of enhanced support and speciality referral; and creation of post-training support procedures. Feedback from pilot trainings included: (1) group consensus that training improved ECD skills and knowledge across multiple domains; and (2) feedback on ongoing needed adjustments to pacing, use of video-based vs. role-playing materials, and time allocated to small group work. We use the Framework for Reporting Adaptations and Modifications to Evidence-based Implementation Strategies (FRAME-IS) framework to document our adaptations. The co-creating approach we use, as well as systematic documentation of adaptation decisions will be of use to other community-based early childhood interventions and implementation strategies.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A biosocial analysis of perinatal and late neonatal mortality among Indigenous Maya Kaqchikel communities in Tecpán, Guatemala: a mixed-methods study

INTRODUCTION

Neonatal mortality is a global public health challenge. Guatemala has the fifth highest neonatal mortality rate in Latin America, and Indigenous communities are particularly impacted. This study aims to understand factors driving neonatal mortality rates among Maya Kaqchikel communities.

METHODS

We used sequential explanatory mixed methods. The quantitative phase was a secondary analysis of 2014-2016 data from the Global Maternal and Newborn Health Registry from Chimaltenango, Guatemala. Multivariate logistic regression models identified factors associated with perinatal and late neonatal mortality. A number of 33 in-depth interviews were conducted with mothers, traditional Maya midwives and local healthcare professionals to explain quantitative findings.

RESULTS

Of 33 759 observations, 351 were lost to follow-up. There were 32 559 live births, 670 stillbirths (20/1000 births), 1265 (38/1000 births) perinatal deaths and 409 (12/1000 live births) late neonatal deaths. Factors identified to have statistically significant associations with a higher risk of perinatal or late neonatal mortality include lack of maternal education, maternal height <140 cm, maternal age under 20 or above 35, attending less than four antenatal visits, delivering without a skilled attendant, delivering at a health facility, preterm birth, congenital anomalies and presence of other obstetrical complications. Qualitative participants linked severe mental and emotional distress and inadequate maternal nutrition to heightened neonatal vulnerability. They also highlighted that mistrust in the healthcare system-fueled by language barriers and healthcare workers' use of coercive authority-delayed hospital presentations. They provided examples of cooperative relationships between traditional midwives and healthcare staff that resulted in positive outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Structural social forces influence neonatal vulnerability in rural Guatemala. When coupled with healthcare system shortcomings, these forces increase mistrust and mortality. Collaborative relationships among healthcare staff, traditional midwives and families may disrupt this cycle.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Early full-day leg movement kinematics and swaddling patterns in infants in rural Guatemala: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Tools to accurately assess infants' neurodevelopmental status very early in their lives are limited. Wearable sensors may provide a novel approach for very early assessment of infant neurodevelopmental status. This may be especially relevant in rural and low-resource global settings.

METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal observational study and used wearable sensors to repeatedly measure the kinematic leg movement characteristics of 41 infants in rural Guatemala three times across full days between birth and 6 months of age. In addition, we collected sociodemographic data, growth data, and caregiver estimates of swaddling behaviors. We used visual analysis and multivariable linear mixed models to evaluate the associations between two leg movement kinematic variables (awake movement rate, peak acceleration per movement) and infant age, swaddling behaviors, growth, and other covariates.

RESULTS

Multivariable mixed models of sensor data showed age-dependent increases in leg movement rates (2.16 [95% CI 0.80,3.52] movements/awake hour/day of life) and movement acceleration (5.04e-3 m/s2 [95% CI 3.79e-3, 6.27e-3]/day of life). Swaddling time as well as growth status, poverty status and multiple other clinical and sociodemographic variables had no impact on either movement variable.

CONCLUSIONS

Collecting wearable sensor data on young infants in a rural low-resource setting is feasible and can be used to monitor age-dependent changes in movement kinematics. Future work will evaluate associations between these kinematic variables from sensors and formal developmental measures, such as the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development.

Implementing integrated hypertension and diabetes management using the World Health Organization's HEARTS model: protocol for a pilot study in the Guatemalan national primary care system

BACKGROUND

The HEARTS technical package was developed by the World Health Organization to address the implementation gap in cardiovascular disease prevention in low- and middle-income countries. Guatemala is a middle-income country that is currently implementing HEARTS. National authorities in Guatemala are interested in exploring how hypertension and diabetes management can be integrated in HEARTS implementation. The objective of this study is to conduct a feasibility and acceptability pilot trial of integrated hypertension and diabetes management based on HEARTS in the publicly funded primary care system in Guatemala.

METHODS

A single-arm pilot trial for 6 months will be carried out in 11 Ministry of Health primary care facilities starting in September 2023. A planned sample of 100 adult patients diagnosed with diabetes (n = 45), hypertension (n = 45), or both (n = 10) will be enrolled. The intervention will consist of HEARTS-aligned components: Training health workers on healthy-lifestyle counseling and evidence-based treatment protocols, strengthening access to medications and diagnostics, training on risk-based cardiovascular disease management, team-based care and task sharing, and systems monitoring and feedback, including implementation of a facility-based electronic monitoring tool at the individual level. Co-primary outcomes of feasibility and acceptability will be assessed using an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design. Secondary outcomes include clinical effectiveness (treatment with medication, glycemic control, and blood pressure control), key implementation outcomes (adoption, fidelity, usability, and sustainability), and patient-reported outcome measures (diabetes distress, disability, and treatment burden). Using an implementation mapping approach, a Technical Advisory Committee will develop implementation strategies for subsequent scale-up planning.

DISCUSSION

This trial will produce evidence on implementing HEARTS-aligned hypertension and diabetes care in the MOH primary care system in Guatemala. Results also will inform future HEARTS projects in Guatemala and other low- and middle-income countries.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT06080451. The trial was prospectively registered on October 12, 2023.

Prevalence of diabetes among Indigenous women in Guatemala: A retrospective chart review study of 13 643 patients between 2015-2022

There are limited data on diabetes among Indigenous populations in Guatemala. In a retrospective chart review of a clinical program serving more than 13 000 primarily Indigenous women in Guatemala, age-adjusted diabetes prevalence was 7.9% (95% CI: 7.3 to 8.5), and 37.9% (95% CI: 35.1 to 40.8%) of women were undiagnosed.

Impact of COVID-19 on diabetes care: mixed methods study in an Indigenous area of Guatemala

INTRODUCTION

SARS-CoV-2 has impacted globally the care of chronic diseases. However, direct evidence from certain vulnerable communities, such as Indigenous communities in Latin America, is missing. We use observational data from a health district that primarily serves people of Maya K'iche' ethnicity to examine the care of type 2 diabetes in Guatemala during the pandemic.

METHODS

We used a parallel convergent mixed methods design. Quantitative data (n=142 individuals with diabetes) included glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure, body mass index and questionnaires on diabetes knowledge, self-care and diabetes distress. Quantitative data was collected at two points, at baseline and after COVID restrictions were lifted. For quantitative outcomes, we constructed multilevel mixed effects models with multiple imputation for missing data. Qualitative data included interviews with providers, supervisors and individuals living with diabetes (n=20). We conducted thematic framework analysis using an inductive approach.

RESULTS

Quantitative data was collected between June 2019 and February 2021, with a median of 487 days between data collection points. HbA1c worsened +0.54% (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.94) and knowledge about diabetes decreased -3.54 points (95% CI, -4.56 to -2.51). Qualitatively, the most important impact of the pandemic was interruption of the regular timing of home visits and peer group meetings which were the standard of care.

CONCLUSIONS

The deterioration of diabetes care was primarily attributed to the loss of regular contact with healthcare workers. The results emphasize the vulnerability of rural and Indigenous populations in Latin America to the suspension of chronic disease care.

Assessing child development scores among minority and Indigenous language versus dominant language speakers: a cross-sectional analysis of national Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys

BACKGROUND

Multiple studies have highlighted the inequities minority and Indigenous children face when accessing health care. Health and wellbeing are positively impacted when Indigenous children are educated and receive care in their maternal language. However, less is known about the association between minority or Indigenous language use and child development risks and outcomes. In this study, we provide global estimates of development risks and assess the associations between minority or Indigenous language status and early child development using the ten-item Early Child Development Index (ECDI), a tool widely used for global population assessments in children aged 3-4 years.

METHODS

We did a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from 65 UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) containing the ECDI from 2009-19 (waves 4-6). We included individual-level data for children aged 2-4 years (23-60 months) from datasets with ECDI modules, for surveys that captured the language of the respondent, interview, or head of household. The Expanded Graded Intergenerational Disruption Scale was used to classify household languages as dominant versus minority or Indigenous at the country level. Our primary outcome was on-track overall development, defined per UNICEF's guidelines as development being on track for at least three of the four ECDI domains (literacy-numeracy, learning, physical, and socioemotional). We performed logistic regression of pooled, weighted ECDI scores, aggregated by language status and adjusting for the covariables of child sex, child nutritional status (stunting), household wealth, maternal education, developmental support by an adult caregiver, and country-level early child education proportion. Regression analyses were done for all children aged 3-4 years with ECDI results, and separately for children with functional disabilities and ECDI results.

FINDINGS

65 MICS datasets were included. 186 393 children aged 3-4 years had ECDI and language data, corresponding to an estimated represented population of 34 714 992 individuals. Estimated prevalence of on-track overall development as measured by ECDI scores was 65·7% (95% CI 64·2-67·2) for children from a minority or Indigenous language-speaking household, and 76·6% (75·7-77·4) for those from a dominant language-speaking household. After adjustment, dominant language status was associated with increased odds of on-track overall development (adjusted OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·40-1·71), which appeared to be largely driven by significantly increased odds of on-track development in the literacy-numeracy and socioemotional domains. For the represented population aged 2-4 years (n=11 465 601), the estimated prevalence of family-reported functional disability was 3·6% (95% CI 3·0-4·4). For the represented population aged 3-4 years with a functional disability (n=292 691), language status was not associated with on-track overall development (adjusted OR 1·02, 95% CI 0·43-2·45).

INTERPRETATION

In a global dataset, children speaking a minority or Indigenous language were less likely to have on-track ECDI scores than those speaking a dominant language. Given the strong positive benefits of speaking an Indigenous language on the health and development of Indigenous children, this disparity is likely to reflect the sociolinguistic marginalisation faced by speakers of minority or Indigenous languages as well as differences in the performance of ECDI in these languages. Global efforts should consider performance of measures and monitor developmental data disaggregated by language status to stimulate efforts to address this disparity.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Spanish, Kaqchikel and K'iche' translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Comparison of the nutrient composition of eggs produced in the Guatemalan highlands during the wet and dry seasons

The potential of chicken eggs as a nutritionally complete protein and source of key micronutrients during the first 1000 days post-conception has been progressively recognized across the globe, particularly in resource-poor settings. Fluctuation of egg nutrient content by season is relatively unknown, which may influence international food composition databases and outcomes in intervention studies using egg supplementation. To better interpret the findings of The Saqmolo' Project, we conducted comprehensive nutrient analyses on eggs produced during the wet and dry seasons in the highlands of central Guatemala. We randomly collected 36 shell eggs from a local farm during both seasons, hard-boiled, and prepared them for transport to the United States, where they were pooled and assessed for their nutrient composition. Methods of the Association of Official Analytical Chemists, the American Oil Chemists Society, and the American Association of Cereal Chemists were utilized to determine total energy, moisture, ash, total protein, total fat, fatty acids, total carbohydrates, 12 vitamins, 11 minerals, and carotenoids, by season, in some instances with modifications. Differences in nutrient composition between de-shelled hard-boiled eggs collected between seasons were assessed using an analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's family error rate comparison test. Most nutrients in eggs produced in the highlands of central Guatemala differed negligibly (but statistically significantly) based on seasonality. Only vitamins A and E, folate, choline, and calcium fluctuated at clinically significant levels relative to the AI/RDA for infants 7-12 months. Total energy, protein, trans fatty acids, moisture, and vitamin D3 levels did not differ between seasons (p > .05). Further multi-year sampling is needed to examine how seasonal variation affects the nutrient composition of eggs. These data may be used to supplement existing national and regional food composition databases.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Aspirin for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 51 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries

Importance

Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD.

Objective

To report and evaluate aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD across low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cross-sectional analysis using pooled, individual participant data from nationally representative health surveys conducted between 2013 and 2020 in 51 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Included surveys contained data on self-reported history of CVD and aspirin use. The sample of participants included nonpregnant adults aged 40 to 69 years.

Exposures

Countries' per capita income levels and world region; individuals' socioeconomic demographics.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Self-reported use of aspirin for secondary prevention of CVD.

Results

The overall pooled sample included 124 505 individuals. The median age was 52 (IQR, 45-59) years, and 50.5% (95% CI, 49.9%-51.1%) were women. A total of 10 589 individuals had a self-reported history of CVD (8.1% [95% CI, 7.6%-8.6%]). Among individuals with a history of CVD, aspirin use for secondary prevention in the overall pooled sample was 40.3% (95% CI, 37.6%-43.0%). By income group, estimates were 16.6% (95% CI, 12.4%-21.9%) in low-income countries, 24.5% (95% CI, 20.8%-28.6%) in lower-middle-income countries, 51.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-54.0%) in upper-middle-income countries, and 65.0% (95% CI, 59.1%-70.4%) in high-income countries.

Conclusion and Relevance

Worldwide, aspirin is underused in secondary prevention, particularly in low-income countries. National health policies and health systems must develop, implement, and evaluate strategies to promote aspirin therapy.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Hierarchical Attentive Network for Gestational Age Estimation in Low-Resource Settings

Assessing fetal development is essential to the provision of healthcare for both mothers and fetuses. In low- and middle-income countries, conditions that increase the risk of fetal growth restriction (FGR) are often more prevalent. In these regions, barriers to accessing healthcare and social services exacerbate fetal maternal health problems. One of these barriers is the lack of affordable diagnostic technologies. To address this issue, this work introduces an end-to-end algorithm applied to a low-cost, hand-held Doppler ultrasound device for estimating gestational age (GA), and by inference, FGR. The Doppler ultrasound signals used in this study were collected from 226 pregnancies (45 low birth weight at delivery) between 5 and 9 months GA by lay midwives in highland Guatemala. We designed a hierarchical deep sequence learning model with an attention mechanism to learn the normative dynamics of fetal cardiac activity in different stages of development. This resulted in a state-of-the-art GA estimation performance, with an average error of 0.79 months. This is close to the theoretical minimum for the given quantization level of one month. The model was then tested on Doppler recordings of the fetuses with low birth weight and the estimated GA was shown to be lower than the GA calculated from last menstruation. Thus, this could be interpreted as a potential sign of developmental retardation (or FGR) associated with low birth weight, and referral and intervention may be necessary.

Assessment of aflatoxin exposure, growth faltering and the gut microbiome among children in rural Guatemala: protocol for an observational prospective cohort and bioreactor simulations

INTRODUCTION

Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is a carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus which grow on maize. Given the high prevalence of child stunting (ie, impaired growth) and other nutritional disorders in low-income and middle-income countries, where maize is consumed, the role of aflatoxin exposure may be significant. Observational reports have demonstrated associations between aflatoxin exposure and impaired child growth; however, most have been cross-sectional and have not assessed seasonal variations in aflatoxin, food preparation and dynamic changes in growth. Biological mechanistic data on how aflatoxin may exert an impact on child growth is missing. This study incorporates a prospective cohort of children from rural Guatemala to assess (1) temporal associations between aflatoxin exposure and child growth and (2) possible mediation of the gut microbiome among aflatoxin exposure, inflammation and child growth.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will prospectively evaluate aflatoxin exposure and height-for-age difference trajectories for 18 months in a cohort of 185 children aged 6-9 months at enrolment. We will assess aflatoxin exposure levels and biomarkers of gut and systemic inflammation. We will examine the faecal microbiome of each child and identify key species and metabolic pathways for differing AFB1 exposure levels and child growth trajectories. In parallel, we will use bioreactors, inoculated with faeces, to investigate the response of the gut microbiome to varying levels of AFB1 exposure. We will monitor key microbial metabolites and AFB1 biotransformation products to study nutrient metabolism and the impact of the gut microbiome on aflatoxin detoxification/metabolism. Finally, we will use path analysis to summarise the effect of aflatoxin exposure and the gut microbiome on child growth.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained from Arizona State University Institutional Review Board (IRB; STUDY00016799) and Wuqu' Kawoq/Maya Health Alliance IRB (WK-2022-003). Findings will be disseminated in scientific presentations and peer-reviewed publications.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Adults' Experiences with Type 2 Diabetes in Rural Guatemala: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

Given that the diabetes burden is rising rapidly in low- and middle-income countries, it is critical to understand perspectives of people living with diabetes in these settings. This qualitative study examines perceptions of causality and treatment among adults with type 2 diabetes in rural Indigenous communities of Guatemala.

METHODS

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 29 people living with type 2 diabetes from a population survey in two majority Indigenous Guatemalan towns. Data were coded inductively and themes were elucidated by consensus.

RESULTS

Participants emphasized strong emotional experiences and stress as perceived causes of diabetes, as well as diet and heritability. All participants took biopharmaceutical treatments, but many also endorsed diet, exercise, herbal remedies, and naturopathic products as important remedies.

CONCLUSION

Perspectives from people living with diabetes in two rural Indigenous towns in Guatemala differ from the biomedical model of disease and have implications for clinical practice and program development.

Qualitative study of pathways to care among adults with diabetes in rural Guatemala

OBJECTIVE

The burden of diabetes mellitus is increasing in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Few studies have explored pathways to care among individuals with diabetes in LMICs. This study evaluates care trajectories among adults with diabetes in rural Guatemala.

DESIGN

A qualitative investigation was conducted as part of a population-based study assessing incidence and risk factors for chronic kidney disease in two rural sites in Guatemala. A random sample of 807 individuals had haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) screening for diabetes in both sites. Based on results from the first 6 months of the population study, semistructured interviews were performed with 29 adults found to have an HbA1c≥6.5% and who reported a previous diagnosis of diabetes. Interviews explored pathways to and experiences of diabetes care. Detailed interview notes were coded using NVivo and used to construct diagrams depicting each participant's pathway to care and use of distinct healthcare sectors.

RESULTS

Participants experienced fragmented care across multiple health sectors (97%), including government, private and non-governmental sectors. The majority of participants sought care with multiple providers for diabetes (90%), at times simultaneously and at times sequentially, and did not have longitudinal continuity of care with a single provider. Many participants experienced financial burden from out-of-pocket costs associated with diabetes care (66%) despite availability of free government sector care. Participants perceived government diabetes care as low-quality due to resource limitations and poor communication with providers, leading some to seek care in other health sectors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the fragmented, discontinuous nature of diabetes care in Guatemala across public, private and non-governmental health sectors. Strategies to improve diabetes care access in Guatemala and other LMICs should be multisectorial and occur through strengthened government primary care and innovative private and non-governmental organisation care models.

Rural-Urban Differences in Diabetes Care and Control in 42 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-sectional Study of Nationally Representative Individual-Level Data

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are limited data on the performance of health systems in delivering equitable and effective care to rural populations. We therefore assessed rural-urban differences in diabetes care and control in LMICs.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We pooled individual-level data from nationally representative health surveys in 42 countries. We used Poisson regression models to estimate age-adjusted differences in the proportion of individuals with diabetes in rural versus urban areas achieving performance measures for the diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk factors. We examined differences across the pooled sample, by sex, and by country.

RESULTS

The pooled sample from 42 countries included 840,110 individuals (35,404 with diabetes). Compared with urban populations with diabetes, rural populations had ∼15-30% lower relative risk of achieving performance measures for diabetes diagnosis and treatment. Rural populations with diagnosed diabetes had a 14% (95% CI 5-22%) lower relative risk of glycemic control, 6% (95% CI -5 to 16%) lower relative risk of blood pressure control, and 23% (95% CI 2-39%) lower relative risk of cholesterol control. Rural women with diabetes had lower achievement of performance measures relating to control than urban women, whereas among men, differences were small.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural populations with diabetes experience substantial inequities in the achievement of diabetes performance measures in LMICs. Programs and policies aiming to strengthen global diabetes care must consider the unique challenges experienced by rural populations.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluating Implementation Outcomes of a Home Garden Intervention in Rural Guatemala Using the RE-AIM Framework

Objectives

To identify implementation barriers and facilitators for a home gardening intervention in rural Guatemala.

Methods

Households were eligible if they had a child 6–24 months of age with stunting. Households received seeds and seedlings for 16 crops, garden construction materials, agronomist-delivered education and technical assistance, and a standard-of-care nutrition program for 6 months. A mixed-methods implementation study was conducted from January 2019 to July 2020 using the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) framework. Data were collected from program records, staff observations, household surveys (n = 70), and interviews or focus groups with staff (n = 4), participants (n = 6) and community stakeholders (n = 3). Descriptive statistics were calculated for quantitative outcomes and qualitative data were organized into themes.

Results

Reach: Seventy of 78 (90%) eligible households participated. Many households in the community expressed interested in participating but did not have a young child with stunting. Effectiveness: Participants and stakeholders felt the intervention increased access to diverse foods. Over the six-month period, households cultivated, on average, an additional 5 species of crops (95% CI: 4–6) overall and 2 species (95% CI: 1–3) that they self-reported consuming. Adoption: Concerns about water use for garden irrigation were a barrier, with only 1 of 4 candidate communities authorizing the project. Implementation: There was good adoption of agricultural best practices (e.g., fencing, staggered planting, adding organic material, saving seeds, intercropping). Gray water filters (facilitating use of recycled water for garden irrigation) and flexible implementation promoted participation. Maintenance: At 6 months, crops failure rates were low, with only 3 of the 16 crops having failure rates above 25%. Costs for garden materials and program delivery were ∼773 USD per household. There were concerns about seed access outside of the project.

Conclusions

Interest and engagement with a home garden intervention in rural Guatemala were high. Future projects should plan to address gaps between garden production and consumption, water use, and seed sourcing.

Funding Sources

Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Foundation.

Mixed-methods implementation study of a home garden intervention in rural Guatemala using the RE-AIM framework

BACKGROUND

Home gardening is a strategy to improve nutrition and food security. More information is needed about optimizing gardens in different contexts.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to identify implementation barriers and facilitators for a home gardening intervention in rural Guatemala and inform future larger-scale interventions in the region.

DESIGN

A mixed-methods implementation study using the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) framework was conducted from January 2019 to July 2020.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

Families (n=70) in rural Guatemala participated in the intervention. Staff (n=4), families (n=6) and community stakeholders (n=3) participated in interviews or focus groups.

INTERVENTION

Participating households received seeds and seedlings for 16 crops, garden construction materials, agronomist-delivered education and assistance, and a standard-of-care nutrition program.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Implementation data were collected from program records and observations, participant surveys, and interviews and focus groups. Crop count and nutritional functional diversity of home gardens were assessed.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED

Descriptive statistics were calculated for quantitative outcomes. Qualitative data were double-coded and organized into over-arching themes.

RESULTS

Reach: Ninety percent of eligible households participated. Child nutritional eligibility criteria was a barrier to reach.

EFFECTIVENESS

Participants and stakeholders felt the intervention improved access to diverse foods. Cultivated crops increased an average of 5 species (95% CI 4-6) at 6 months, although not all were consumed. Adoption: The main community adoption barrier was water sourcing for garden irrigation.

IMPLEMENTATION

Raised beds were the most common gardening method, with good adoption of agricultural best practices. Gray water filters and flexible implementation were important for participation. Maintenance: Crops failure rates were low. Seed availability was a sustainability challenge. Direct costs were 763 USD per household.

CONCLUSIONS

Interest and engagement with a home garden intervention in Guatemala were high. Gaps between garden production and consumption, access to water, and seed sourcing should be addressed in future work.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of statins for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in 41 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative, individual-level data

BACKGROUND

In the prevention of cardiovascular disease, a WHO target is that at least 50% of eligible people use statins. Robust evidence is needed to monitor progress towards this target in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where most cardiovascular disease deaths occur. The objectives of this study were to benchmark statin use in LMICs and to investigate country-level and individual-level characteristics associated with statin use.

METHODS

We did a cross-sectional analysis of pooled, individual-level data from nationally representative health surveys done in 41 LMICs between 2013 and 2019. Our sample consisted of non-pregnant adults aged 40-69 years. We prioritised WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) surveys because these are WHO's recommended method for population monitoring of non-communicable disease targets. For countries in which no STEPS survey was available, a systematic search was done to identify other surveys. We included surveys that were done in an LMIC as classified by the World Bank in the survey year; were done in 2013 or later; were nationally representative; had individual-level data available; and asked questions on statin use and previous history of cardiovascular disease. Primary outcomes were the proportion of eligible individuals self-reporting use of statins for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Eligibility for statin therapy for primary prevention was defined among individuals with a history of diagnosed diabetes or a 10-year cardiovascular disease risk of at least 20%. Eligibility for statin therapy for secondary prevention was defined among individuals with a history of self-reported cardiovascular disease. At the country level, we estimated statin use by per-capita health spending, per-capita income, burden of cardiovascular diseases, and commitment to non-communicable disease policy. At the individual level, we used modified Poisson regression models to assess statin use alongside individual-level characteristics of age, sex, education, and rural versus urban residence. Countries were weighted in proportion to their population size in pooled analyses.

FINDINGS

The final pooled sample included 116 449 non-pregnant individuals. 9229 individuals reported a previous history of cardiovascular disease (7·9% [95% CI 7·4-8·3] of the population-weighted sample). Among those without a previous history of cardiovascular disease, 8453 were eligible for a statin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (9·7% [95% CI 9·3-10·1] of the population-weighted sample). For primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, statin use was 8·0% (95% CI 6·9-9·3) and for secondary prevention statin use was 21·9% (20·0-24·0). The WHO target that at least 50% of eligible individuals receive statin therapy to prevent cardiovascular disease was achieved by no region or income group. Statin use was less common in countries with lower health spending. At the individual level, there was generally higher statin use among women (primary prevention only, risk ratio [RR] 1·83 [95% CI 1·22-2·76), and individuals who were older (primary prevention, 60-69 years, RR 1·86 [1·04-3·33]; secondary prevention, 50-59 years RR 1·71 [1·35-2·18]; and 60-69 years RR 2·09 [1·65-2·65]), more educated (primary prevention, RR 1·61 [1·09-2·37]; secondary prevention, RR 1·28 [0·97-1·69]), and lived in urban areas (secondary prevention only, RR 0·82 [0·66-1·00]).

INTERPRETATION

In a diverse sample of LMICs, statins are used by about one in ten eligible people for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases and one in five eligible people for secondary prevention. There is an urgent need to scale up statin use in LMICs to achieve WHO targets. Policies and programmes that facilitate implementation of statins into primary health systems in these settings should be investigated for the future.

FUNDING

National Clinician Scholars Program at the University of Michigan Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Loss to Follow-Up and the Care Cascade for Cervical Cancer Care in Rural Guatemala: A Cross-Sectional Study

PURPOSE

More than 80% of cervical cancer cases and deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we analyze a large geographically extensive cross-sectional data set from the Western rural highlands of Guatemala. Our objective is to better characterize weak points in care along the cervical cancer care continuum and investigate sociodemographic and clinical correlates of loss to follow-up.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of electronic health records data from July 21, 2015, through December 10, 2020 for a cytology-based screening and cervical cancer treatment program. We used a care cascade analysis to characterize the progression of individuals through screening, confirmatory testing, and treatment. We examined demographic and clinical factors correlated with screening and loss to follow-up using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 8,872 individuals were included in the analysis. Five thousand nine hundred thirteen cervical cancer screenings were conducted. 4.1% of all screening tests were abnormal, including 0.61% cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or overt cervical cancer. Care cascade analysis showed that 67% of eligible women accepted screening. Of those requiring confirmatory testing or treatment, 73% completed recommended follow-up. In adjusted multivariable analysis, prior history of sexual transmitted infection, prior experience with cervical cancer screening, older age, and current contraceptive use were associated with accepting screening. Age and contraceptive use were also associated with retention in care after a positive first screen.

CONCLUSION

In a large rural Guatemalan retrospective cohort, a care continuum analysis showed that both declining the opportunity to receive cervical cancer screening as well as declining confirmatory testing after a first positive screen were both important weak points along the care continuum. These data support the need for comprehensive and culturally appropriate initiatives to improve screening uptake and retention in care.

Implementation of a Diabetes Self-Management Education and Support Intervention in Rural Guatemala: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation Using the RE-AIM Framework

INTRODUCTION

To address the global diabetes epidemic, lifestyle counseling on diet, physical activity, and weight loss is essential. This study assessed the implementation of a diabetes self-management education and support (DSMES) intervention using a mixed-methods evaluation framework.

METHODS

We implemented a culturally adapted, home-based DSMES intervention in rural Indigenous Maya towns in Guatemala from 2018 through 2020. We used a pretest-posttest design and a mixed-methods evaluation approach guided by the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) framework. Quantitative data included baseline characteristics, implementation metrics, effectiveness outcomes, and costs. Qualitative data consisted of semistructured interviews with 3 groups of stakeholders.

RESULTS

Of 738 participants screened, 627 participants were enrolled, and 478 participants completed the study. Adjusted mean change in glycated hemoglobin A1c was -0.4% (95% CI, -0.6% to -0.3%; P < .001), change in systolic blood pressure was -5.0 mm Hg (95% CI, -6.4 to -3.7 mm Hg; P < .001), change in diastolic blood pressure was -2.6 mm Hg (95% CI, -3.4 to -1.9 mm Hg; P < .001), and change in body mass index was 0.5 (95% CI, 0.3 to 0.6; P < .001). We observed improvements in diabetes knowledge, distress, and most self-care activities. Key implementation factors included 1) recruitment barriers for men, 2) importance of patient-centered care, 3) role of research staff in catalyzing health worker involvement, 4) tradeoffs between home and telephone visits, and 5) sustainability challenges.

CONCLUSION

A community health worker-led DSMES intervention was successfully implemented in the public health system in rural Guatemala and resulted in significant improvements in most clinical and psychometric outcomes. Scaling up sustainable DSMES in health systems in rural settings requires careful consideration of local barriers and facilitators.

Why women choose to to seek facility-level obstetrical care in rural Guatemala: A qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

The majority of indigenous Guatemalan women give birth at home with traditional birth attendants (TBAs), and maternal mortality rates are high (Ministerio de Salud, 2017). Our objective was to better understand decision-making around whether to remain in the home or to seek facility-level care for obstetric complications.

METHODS

This study was a qualitative analysis using semi-structured interviews in a Maya population in the Western Highlands of Guatemala who received prenatal care between April 2017 and December 2018. We used qualitative interviews with women who were identified as medically high-risk and needing facility-level care, offered assistance with acquiring such care, and yet declined this option. Women interviewed were connected to a primary care organization called Maya Health Alliance, through care with TBAs involved in a program utilizing a smartphone-based decision support application to identify maternal and neonatal complications of pregnancy. Interviews were analyzed using Dedoose (www.dedoose.com). Deductive and inductive analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Barriers to care included a disagreement between the respondent and TBA about indications for facility care, fear of hospital care, concerns about the quality of hospital care, logistical obstacles, and lack of control; and they were more often described by respondents who had previous healthcare experiences. Therapeutic misalignment occurred more with conditions perceived to be less severe. Participants described a balancing of fears and apprehensions against concerns of low quality and disrespectful maternity care, and in the setting of emergent conditions, disregarded barriers that were often described as inhibiting non-urgent obstetric care.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to engage in medical care in this population of Maya women involves a weighing of the perception of seriousness of the medical complication against fears of facility level care and concerns of a poor quality of care.

Improving the experience of facility-based delivery for vulnerable women through obstetric care navigation: a qualitative evaluation

Background

Global disparities in maternal mortality could be reduced by universal facility delivery. Yet, deficiencies in the quality of care prevent some mothers from seeking facility-based obstetric care. Obstetric care navigators (OCNs) are a new form of lay health workers that combine elements of continuous labor support and care navigation to promote obstetric referrals. Here we report qualitative results from the pilot OCN project implemented in Indigenous villages in the Guatemalan central highlands.

Methods

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 17 mothers who received OCN accompaniment and 13 staff—namely physicians, nurses, and social workers—of the main public hospital in the pilot’s catchment area (Chimaltenango). Interviews queried OCN’s impact on patient and hospital staff experience and understanding of intended OCN roles. Audiorecorded interviews were transcribed, coded, and underwent content analysis.

Results

Maternal fear of surgical intervention, disrespectful and abusive treatment, and linguistic barriers were principal deterrents of care seeking. Physicians and nurses reported cultural barriers, opposition from family, and inadequate hospital resources as challenges to providing care to Indigenous mothers. Patient and hospital staff identified four valuable services offered by OCNs: emotional support, patient advocacy, facilitation of patient-provider communication, and care coordination. While patients and most physicians felt that OCNs had an overwhelmingly positive impact, nurses felt their effort would be better directed toward traditional nursing tasks.

Conclusions

Many barriers to maternity care exist for Indigenous mothers in Guatemala. OCNs can improve mothers’ experiences in public hospitals and reduce limitations faced by providers. However, broader buy-in from hospital staff—especially nurses—appears critical to program success. Future research should focus on measuring the impact of obstetric care navigation on key clinical outcomes (cesarean delivery) and mothers’ future care seeking behavior.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-021-03842-1.

The Saqmolo’ Project: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial Examining the Impact of Daily Complementary Feeding of Eggs on Infant Development and Growth in Guatemala

Objectives

Studies in Ecuador and Malawi have demonstrated mixed effects of interventions involving daily complementary feeding of eggs on child growth. For example, in Malawi, the egg intervention had no overall effect on child development. There is a need to test the effects of egg interventions on child growth and development in other settings with high prevalence of stunting and in the context of other nutritional interventions. The Saqmolo’ (i.e.,“egg” in the Mayan language, Kaqchiquel) study aims to evaluate the impact of adding 1 egg per day to local standard nutrition care (LSNC) on child development, in rural Maya infants from Guatemala.

Methods

In a community-based, individually randomized, controlled comparative effectiveness trial among rural indigenous Maya children (n = 1200), starting at 6–9 months at baseline, we will compare the impact of adding one egg per day to LSNC with LSNC alone. LSNC includes: growth monitoring, medical care, deworming medication, multiple micronutrient powders for point of use food fortification, and individualized complementary and responsive feeding education for caregivers. Intervention and control groups will be visited once per month during 6-months and adherence will be monitored during the visits and through phone calls for the first 2 months in both groups at the same frequency. The primary outcome is differences in child global development (measured by Caregiver Reported Child Development Instruments –CREDI-and the Guide for Monitoring Child Development GMCD); secondary outcomes include: growth (z-scores for weight for age, length for age, weight for length, and head circumference for age), and diet quality (using the World Health Organization's infant and young child feeding indicators).

Results

N/A (submitting study protocol abstract).

Conclusions

This study will provide new evidence on the potential effect of increased egg accessibility in high prevalence stunting areas along with integrated nutrition care on child development. The results may help to inform public health decision-making regarding resource allocation for effective nutrition interventions during the complementary feeding period in Guatemala.

Funding Sources

This work was supported by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics Foundation via an investigator-initiated research grant from the Egg Nutrition Center.

CNN-Based LCD Transcription of Blood Pressure From a Mobile Phone Camera

Routine blood pressure (BP) measurement in pregnancy is commonly performed using automated oscillometric devices. Since no wireless oscillometric BP device has been validated in preeclamptic populations, a simple approach for capturing readings from such devices is needed, especially in low-resource settings where transmission of BP data from the field to central locations is an important mechanism for triage. To this end, a total of 8192 BP readings were captured from the Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) screen of a standard Omron M7 self-inflating BP cuff using a cellphone camera. A cohort of 49 lay midwives captured these data from 1697 pregnant women carrying singletons between 6 weeks and 40 weeks gestational age in rural Guatemala during routine screening. Images exhibited a wide variability in their appearance due to variations in orientation and parallax; environmental factors such as lighting, shadows; and image acquisition factors such as motion blur and problems with focus. Images were independently labeled for readability and quality by three annotators (BP range: 34-203 mm Hg) and disagreements were resolved. Methods to preprocess and automatically segment the LCD images into diastolic BP, systolic BP and heart rate using a contour-based technique were developed. A deep convolutional neural network was then trained to convert the LCD images into numerical values using a multi-digit recognition approach. On readable low- and high-quality images, this proposed approach achieved a 91% classification accuracy and mean absolute error of 3.19 mm Hg for systolic BP and 91% accuracy and mean absolute error of 0.94 mm Hg for diastolic BP. These error values are within the FDA guidelines for BP monitoring when poor quality images are excluded. The performance of the proposed approach was shown to be greatly superior to state-of-the-art open-source tools (Tesseract and the Google Vision API). The algorithm was developed such that it could be deployed on a phone and work without connectivity to a network.

Perceptions of chronic kidney disease among at-risk adults in rural Guatemala

This qualitative study explores perceptions of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among adults with abnormal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in Guatemala, where the burden of CKD is rising. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 39 individuals screened for CKD and found to have abnormal eGFR (defined as <90 mL/min/1.73 m2, per Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes [KDIGO] guidelines). Interviews occurred in participants' homes in Spanish or Kaqchikel Mayan. Interview notes were coded for dominant themes through an inductive approach. Interviewees had limited awareness of diabetes and hypertension as CKD risk factors, but appreciated the progressive nature of the disease. While most reported willingness to pursue renal replacement therapies, if necessary, they anticipated economic and geographic barriers. Public health interventions should focus on the association between diabetes, hypertension, and CKD. Improvement of primary care and screening infrastructure is imperative in CKD prevention in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Population Estimates of GFR and Risk Factors for CKD in Guatemala

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an emerging public health priority in Central America. However, data on the prevalence of CKD in Guatemala, Central America's most populous country, are limited, especially for rural communities.

METHODS

We conducted a population-representative survey of 2 rural agricultural municipalities in Guatemala. We collected anthropometric data, blood pressure, serum and urine creatinine, glycosylated hemoglobin, and urine albumin. Sociodemographic, health, and exposure data were self-reported.

RESULTS

We enrolled 807 individuals (63% of all eligible, 35% male, mean age 39.5 years). An estimated 4.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4-6.6) had CKD, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Most individuals with an eGFR below 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had diabetes or hypertension. In multivariable analysis, the important factors associated with risk for an eGFR less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 included a history of diabetes or hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 11.21; 95% CI 3.28-38.24), underweight (body mass index [BMI] <18.5) (aOR 21.09; 95% CI 2.05-217.0), and an interaction between sugar cane agriculture and poverty (aOR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.19).

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based survey, most observed CKD was associated with diabetes and hypertension. These results emphasize the urgent public health need to address the emerging epidemic of diabetes, hypertension, and CKD in rural Guatemala. In addition, the association between CKD and sugar cane in individuals living in poverty provides some circumstantial evidence for existence of CKD of unknown etiology in the study communities, which requires further investigation.

Diet quality, school attendance, and body weight status in adolescent girls in rural Guatemala

A cluster of factors affects nutritional status among adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We investigated the association between school attendance and diet quality among 498 rural adolescent girls (352 attending and 146 not attending school) in Tecpán, Guatemala. In a cross-sectional study, we collected sociodemographic and anthropometric data and characterized the dietary intake using a Food Frequency Questionnaire. We then calculated diet quality using the Healthy Eating Score (HES). Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the effects of school attendance on diet quality. We found that the overall diet quality among the study participants was poor, according to the HES. However, those who attended school had significantly higher intakes of vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables (P = 0.04), other fruits (P = 0.01), and milk and milk products (P = 0.004), but a higher intake of fast foods, chips, and saturated fatty acids (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the effects of school attendance on diet quality were significant after adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors (β coefficient = -1.70, 95% CI: -3.30 to -0.11) but was attenuated when further adjusted for weight status (β coefficient = -1.58, 95% CI: -3.17 to 0.02). Our findings suggest that diet quality among girls in rural Guatemala is poor, particularly among those who do not attend school. To advance our understanding of adolescent diet in LMICs, future studies should include adolescents who are out of school.

Community-Based Interventions to Reduce Child Stunting in Rural Guatemala: A Quality Improvement Model

Rural Guatemala has one of the highest rates of chronic child malnutrition (stunting) in the world, with little progress despite considerable efforts to scale up evidence-based nutrition interventions. Recent literature suggests that one factor limiting impact is inadequate supervisory support for frontline workers. Here we describe a community-based quality improvement intervention in a region with a high rate of stunting. The intervention provided audit and feedback support to frontline nutrition workers through electronic worklists, performance dashboards, and one-on-one feedback sessions. We visualized performance indicators and child nutrition outcomes during the improvement intervention using run charts and control charts. In this small community-based sample (125 households at program initiation), over the two-year improvement period, there were marked improvements in the delivery of program components, such as growth monitoring services and micronutrient supplements. The prevalence of child stunting fell from 42.4 to 30.6%, meeting criteria for special cause variation. The mean length/height-for-age Z-score rose from −1.77 to −1.47, also meeting criteria for special cause variation. In conclusion, the addition of structured performance visualization and audit and feedback components to an existing community-based nutrition program improved child health indicators significantly through improving the fidelity of an existing evidence-based nutrition package.

Collecting Infant Environmental and Experiential Data Using Smartphone Surveys

We propose that the collection of infant experiential and environmental data using smartphone surveys has the potential to fill a gap in foundational and clinical knowledge. To achieve this, these data need to be collected in a systematic way that is translatable globally. We can then begin to understand differences in child development and physical therapy from a variety of cultures and traditions. An infant's development is shaped by experiences in everyday life, and everyday experiences vary around the world. Hence, it is important to quantify these experiences to better understand variability in developmental trajectories. Recent increase in smartphone access has made the capability of collecting infant experiential data more feasible around the world. We provide examples and suggestions for ways in which experiential and environmental data can be collected for future practice.

Hybrid type 1 effectiveness/implementation trial of the international Guide for Monitoring Child Development: protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

More than 40% of children under 5 years of age in low-income and middle-income countries are at risk of not reaching their developmental potential. The international Guide for Monitoring Child Development (GMCD) early intervention package is a comprehensive programme to address developmental difficulties using an individualised intervention plan for young children and their families. We will conduct a hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation evaluation of the GMCD intervention in rural India and Guatemala.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Using a cluster-randomised design, 624 children aged 0-24 months in 52 clusters (26 in India, 26 in Guatemala) will be assigned to usual care or the GMCD intervention plus usual care delivered by frontline workers for 12 months. After 12 months, the usual care arm will cross over to the intervention, which will continue for 12 additional months (24 total). The intervention will be delivered using a digital mobile device interface. Effectiveness will be assessed for developmental functioning (Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 3rd edition) and nurturing care (Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment Scale) outcomes. Implementation will be assessed using the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance framework. Explanatory qualitative analysis guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research will explore determinants between clusters with high versus low implementation effectiveness.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Brigham and Women's Hospital, Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences and Maya Health Alliance; and by the Indian Council of Medical Research/Health Ministry Screening Committee. Key study findings will be published in international open-access journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04665297, CTRI/2020/12/029748.

PROTOCOL VERSION

1.0 (12 November 2020).

A review of fetal cardiac monitoring, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries

There is limited evidence regarding the utility of fetal monitoring during pregnancy, particularly during labor and delivery. Developed countries rely on consensus ‘best practices’ of obstetrics and gynecology professional societies to guide their protocols and policies. Protocols are often driven by the desire to be as safe as possible and avoid litigation, regardless of the cost of downstream treatment. In high-resource settings, there may be a justification for this approach. In low-resource settings, in particular, interventions can be costly and lead to adverse outcomes in subsequent pregnancies. Therefore, it is essential to consider the evidence and cost of different fetal monitoring approaches, particularly in the context of treatment and care in low-to-middle income countries.

This article reviews the standard methods used for fetal monitoring, with particular emphasis on fetal cardiac assessment, which is a reliable indicator of fetal well-being. An overview of fetal monitoring practices in low-to-middle income counties, including perinatal care access challenges, is also presented. Finally, an overview of how mobile technology may help reduce barriers to perinatal care access in low-resource settings is provided.

Feasibility of satellite image and GIS sampling for population representative surveys: a case study from rural Guatemala

BACKGROUND

Population-representative household survey methods require up-to-date sampling frames and sample designs that minimize time and cost of fieldwork especially in low- and middle-income countries. Traditional methods such as multi-stage cluster sampling, random-walk, or spatial sampling can be cumbersome, costly or inaccurate, leading to well-known biases. However, a new tool, Epicentre's Geo-Sampler program, allows simple random sampling of structures, which can eliminate some of these biases. We describe the study design process, experiences and lessons learned using Geo-Sampler for selection of a population representative sample for a kidney disease survey in two sites in Guatemala.

RESULTS

We successfully used Epicentre's Geo-sampler tool to sample 650 structures in two semi-urban Guatemalan communities. Overall, 82% of sampled structures were residential and could be approached for recruitment. Sample selection could be conducted by one person after 30 min of training. The process from sample selection to creating field maps took approximately 40 h.

CONCLUSION

In combination with our design protocols, the Epicentre Geo-Sampler tool provided a feasible, rapid and lower-cost alternative to select a representative population sample for a prevalence survey in our semi-urban Guatemalan setting. The tool may work less well in settings with heavy arboreal cover or densely populated urban settings with multiple living units per structure. Similarly, while the method is an efficient step forward for including non-traditional living arrangements (people residing permanently or temporarily in businesses, religious institutions or other structures), it does not account for some of the most marginalized and vulnerable people in a population-the unhoused, street dwellers or people living in vehicles.

Health system interventions for adults with type 2 diabetes in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Effective health system interventions may help address the disproportionate burden of diabetes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We assessed the impact of health system interventions to improve outcomes for adults with type 2 diabetes in LMICs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, African Index Medicus, LILACS, and Global Index Medicus from inception of each database through February 24, 2020. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of health system interventions targeting adults with type 2 diabetes in LMICs. Eligible studies reported at least 1 of the following outcomes: glycemic change, mortality, quality of life, or cost-effectiveness. We conducted a meta-analysis for the glycemic outcome of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). GRADE and Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care methods were used to assess risk of bias for the glycemic outcome and to prepare a summary of findings table. Of the 12,921 references identified in searches, we included 39 studies in the narrative review of which 19 were cluster RCTs and 20 were individual RCTs. The greatest number of studies were conducted in the East Asia and Pacific region (n = 20) followed by South Asia (n = 7). There were 21,080 total participants enrolled across included studies and 10,060 total participants in the meta-analysis of HbA1c when accounting for the design effect of cluster RCTs. Non-glycemic outcomes of mortality, health-related quality of life, and cost-effectiveness had sparse data availability that precluded quantitative pooling. In the meta-analysis of HbA1c from 35 of the included studies, the mean difference was -0.46% (95% CI -0.60% to -0.31%, I2 87.8%, p < 0.001) overall, -0.37% (95% CI -0.64% to -0.10%, I2 60.0%, n = 7, p = 0.020) in multicomponent clinic-based interventions, -0.87% (-1.20% to -0.53%, I2 91.0%, n = 13, p < 0.001) in pharmacist task-sharing studies, and -0.27% (-0.50% to -0.04%, I2 64.1%, n = 7, p = 0.010) in trials of diabetes education or support alone. Other types of interventions had few included studies. Eight studies were at low risk of bias for the summary assessment of glycemic control, 15 studies were at unclear risk, and 16 studies were at high risk. The certainty of evidence for glycemic control by subgroup was moderate for multicomponent clinic-based interventions but was low or very low for other intervention types. Limitations include the lack of consensus definitions for health system interventions, differences in the quality of underlying studies, and sparse data availability for non-glycemic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this meta-analysis, we found that health system interventions for type 2 diabetes may be effective in improving glycemic control in LMICs, but few studies are available from rural areas or low- or lower-middle-income countries. Multicomponent clinic-based interventions had the strongest evidence for glycemic benefit among intervention types. Further research is needed to assess non-glycemic outcomes and to study implementation in rural and low-income settings.