An approach to the milestones of spine surgery in Persian traditional medicine

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis and treatment of spine disorders have been challenging for thousands of years in different nations and medical schools. Despite this long history, there are many information gaps in this regard. The current research deals with the milestones and progress of spine surgery from ancient times until now, emphasizing the innovations of sages in the Persian traditional medicine era.

METHODS

The present study is based on searching original and library documents, data from databases such as PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct, and search engines such as Google Scholar.

RESULTS

In Persian traditional medicine, Rhazes (865-925 AD) was the first sage who applied spine surgery based on the innovative knowledge of Galen (second century AD) and Paulus Aegineta (seventh century AD). Hally Abbas (tenth century AD), by suturing two separated bones during spine surgery, and Albucasis (936-1013 AD), by inventing, describing, and drawing the surgical instruments involved in surgeries in this area, and also using cauterization in the treatment of children's hunchback, were the innovators of new methods.

CONCLUSION

The modern knowledge of spine surgery is based on intelligent experiences and prominent thoughts from thousands of years worldwide. However, sometimes, these key points have remained hidden. This issue necessitates investigating this science in different schools and territories for comparative studies, identifying the firsts in the prominent points of this field, preserving the identity of sages and nations, and preventing scientific plagiarism.

Immune endotyping and gene expression profile of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps in the aspirin-exacerbated respiratory disease (AERD) and the non-AERD subgroups

BACKGROUND

Chronic Rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a paranasal sinus inflammatory disease and is divided into two subgroups defined as CRS with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) and CRS without nasal polyps (CRSsNP). CRSwNP displays a T helper (Th)2 biased phenotype, and based on sensitivity or tolerance to aspirin or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID), is further subdivided into Aspirin-exacerbated respiratory disease (AERD) and non-AERD groups. Considering the challenge of diagnosis and treatment in patients with CRSwNP, particularly the AERD subtype, and the significance of endotyping in these patients, we examined the immune profile and endotyping based on gene expression analysis in the AERD and the non-AERD groups of patients with CRSwNP.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

In this study, 21 patients were enrolled and were categorized into AERD (N = 10) and non-AERD (N = 11) groups based on their sensitivity to aspirin. After the special washing period, nasal polyps were biopsied in both groups, and the infiltration of eosinophils, neutrophils, plasma cells, and lymphocytes was compared between the AERD and the non-AERD groups. Also, gene expression levels of transcription factors including Tbet, GATA3, RoRγt, and FoxP3 and inflammatory cytokines including interleukin (IL)1β, IL1RAP (IL1 receptor accessory protein), IL2, IL4, IL5, IL10, IL13, IL17, TNFα, and IFNγ were investigated by quantitative Real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). Statistical analyses were performed using analytical tests including Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Mann-Whitney, and T-test. A P value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD age of the studied groups was 37 ± 8.7 years old (21-50) for the AERD, and 40.4 ± 7.7 years old (31-52) for the non-AERD. LMS/EPOS/SNOT scores and pulmonary function tests showed no difference between the two groups. Serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels were found to be higher in patients with AERD (p = 0.04), however, the peripheral blood counts of eosinophils were comparable in the two groups. In the histopathologic analysis, the AERD group showed higher percentages of eosinophils (p = 0.04), neutrophils (p = 0.04), and plasma cells (p = 0.04) than the non-AERD group. Additionally, the gene expression levels of GATA3 (p = 0.001), IL4 (p = 0.04), IL5 (p = 0.007), and IL17 (p = 0.03) were significantly higher in the AERD than the non-AERD groups.

CONCLUSION

Higher gene expression levels of GATA3, IL4, IL5, and IL17 were observed in the AERD group compared with the non-AERD group. These findings point to distinct patterns of inflammation in patients with AERD, with a predominance of Th2 inflammation.

The historical course of varicose vein surgery in the Persian medicine

INTRODUCTION

Dawali (varicose veins) is the disease of chronic dilation of veins. The veins of the legs become dilated and blue due to excessive accumulation of blood. This disease and the effort to identify and treat it has a very long history. The condition may have first been described in the Ebers Papyrus more than 3500 years ago. The present study deals with the turning points and progress of varicose vein surgery since ancient times, emphasizing the innovations of the scholars of the Islamic period.

METHODS

The present study is based on searching library documents and database data such as PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and search engines such as Google Scholar. In the end, the Prisma flow chart was drawn.

RESULTS

Besides diagnosing different varicose veins (legs, thighs, abdomen, uterus, and testes), the scholars of the Islamic period were well-versed in their prevention, etiology, and treatment. In treating varicose veins, these physicians used methods such as cleansing, phlebotomy, compression, leech therapy, and surgery, and some of them were the founders of new treatments.

CONCLUSION

The surgical treatment of varicose veins in the past was similar to modern surgical therapies. What distinguishes yesterday's varicose vein surgery from today's surgery is a more advanced tool. There is no denying the remarkable progress in using health principles, treatment techniques, and surgical instruments to facilitate surgery and reduce the disease's complications and recurrence. However, the treatment framework and foundation, such as phlebectomy and compression, were all invented and introduced in the distant past.

Cauterization's history in the Persian medicine school

BACKGROUND

Cauterization has been used in various medical schools to prevent and treat diseases. Its application dates back to shortly after the invention of fire. Despite its long history, different aspects and the importance of cauterization in various medical schools have remained elusive. The present study addressed the milestones and progress of cauterization from ancient times to the present, emphasizing the innovations of the Persian medicine school.

METHODS

The present study is based on searching in the library documents of famous Persian medicine scholars and data from databases such as Ovid, PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus, ProQuest, and Google Scholar search engines.

RESULTS

Persian Medicine scholars used various cauterization methods such as hot metals and corrosive drugs to stop bleeding, prevent the development and spread of infection, and treat hydrocephalus and rabies. Cauterization has been associated with considerations to prevent irreversible tissue damage and whether or not it is internal or external.

CONCLUSION

Cauterization has been associated with different practical purposes. With evolutionary progress and the use of different techniques and tools throughout history, the tools such as Electrocautery or Galvanocautery are some manifestations of new applications of cauterization. Numerous studies have indicated the continuation of newer applications, indicating the inexhaustible human interest in this ancient technique.

The Implication of Nutrition on the Prevention and Improvement of Age-Related Sarcopenic Obesity: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Nutrition plays a pivotal role in the initiation and progression of sarcopenic obesity, making it a critical focus for preventing and treating this condition. However, the specific dietary components that effectively combat sarcopenic obesity remain poorly understood. The objective of this systematic review was to examine the potential nutritional and dietary factors that may play a role in the development of sarcopenic obesity in the elderly population.

METHODS

To identify relevant studies investigating the association/effects of dietary pattern/single foods/nutrients or supplements with sarcopenic obesity-related outcomes, a comprehensive literature search was conducted until April 2023. The search encompassed multiple databases including PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, and Google Scholar. Two researchers performed rigorous assessments that included screening titles and abstracts, reviewing full-text studies, extracting data, and evaluating the quality of the studies. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used for observational studies, while the Jadad-Oxford Scale was employed for clinical trials.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies (14 observational studies and 9 trials) with 37078 participants, published between 2012 and 2022, were eligible for the systematic review. Of the 14 observational articles, two focused on dietary patterns and 12 on food/calorie/macro- and micronutrient intake. The nutritional interventions included the intake of supplements (i.e., protein, amino acids, tea catechin, and vitamin D) and dietary management (calorie restriction, very low-calorie ketogenic diet, and high-protein diet). Appropriate dietary factors, such as appropriate intake of calories, macronutrients, micronutrients, antioxidant nutrients, vegetables, fruits, and overall dietary quality, have been shown to be effective in preventing and treating sarcopenic obesity-related parameters. A combined approach of hypocaloric diet and high protein intake may be necessary for managing both obesity and sarcopenia in older individuals.

CONCLUSION

Studies suggest that dietary factors, such as overall dietary quality, appropriate intake of calories and protein, consumption of antioxidant nutrients, vegetables, fruits, and protein, may be linked to sarcopenic obesity.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.

METHODS

Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.

FINDINGS

Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Fatty acid composition, phytochemicals and antioxidant potential of Capparis spinosa sedes

The present study evaluates the contents in bioactive compounds, antioxidant activity, oil content and fatty acid composition of Capparis spinosa seeds. Samples were collected from 5 different habitats (AH: Ahar; KU: Kurdistan; U1, U2 and U3: Urmia) in Iran. The oil content in the seeds ranged from 16 to 27%. The predominant fatty acid was linoleic acid (45-50%) followed by oleic acid (30-39%), palmitic acid (2-8%) and stearic acid (2-3%). Total phenolic content (TPC) varied from 16.3 to 24.2 mg GAE/ g DW; total flavonoid content (TFC) ranged from 1.48 to 3.05 mg QE/g DW; and the antioxidant activity (DPPH assay) of the seeds was between 35 and 63%. The compounds obtained from different genotypes of C. spinosa seeds had different compositions, great antioxidant capacity and unsaturated fatty acids, and therefore could be a prospective source of natural bioactive molecules for the food and health industry.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Efficiency of Iranian Hospitals Before and After Health Sector Evolution Plan: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Study

Purpose: Aging, chronic diseases, and development of expensive and advanced technologies has increased hospitals costs which have necessitated their efficiency in utilization of resources. This systematic review and meta-analysis study has assessed the efficiency of Iranian hospitals before and after the 2011 Health Sector Evolution Plan (HSEP). Methods: Internal and external databases were searched using specified keywords without considering time limitations. The retrieved articles were entered into EndNote considering inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the final analysis was performed after removing duplicates. Heterogeneity between the studies was assessed using Q and I2 tests. A forest plot with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was used to calculate different types of efficiency. The data were analyzed using STATA 14. Results: Random pooled estimation of hospitals technical, managerial, and scale efficiencies were 0.84 (95%CI = 0.78, 0.52), 0.9 (95%CI = 0.85, 0.94), and 0.88 (95%CI = 0.84, 0.91), respectively. Sub-group analysis on the basis of study year (before and after HSEP in 2011) indicated that random pool estimation of technical (0.86), managerial (0.91), and scale (0.90) efficiencies of Iranian hospitals for 2011 and before were better than technical (0.78), managerial (0.86), and scale (0.74) efficiencies after 2011. Conclusion: Type of hospital ownership was effective on hospital efficiency. However, HSEP has not improved hospital efficiency, so it is necessary for future national plans to consider all aspects.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of Consumption of Whole-Wheat Breads on FBS, HbA1c, and Blood Lipids in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Whole-wheat can have positive effect on blood parameters, such as blood sugar and fat profiles, in patients with diabetic. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of whole-wheat breads on hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and blood lipids in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). The study population included men and women with T2D aged 30 years old and over in Arak, Iran. Using random sampling method, 60 patients with T2D were selected and randomly divided into control and intervention groups. After taking blood samples from the patients, the intervention group was administered 180 g of wholegrain wheat for 12 weeks. The participants were asked not to change their diets and amounts of physical activity during the study period. After 12 weeks, blood samples were taken and insulin resistance indexes, blood glucose levels, and lipid profiles were examined. The results indicated that consumption of whole-wheat bread for 12 weeks can significantly reduce body weight, and HbA1c, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) levels, and increase high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) levels (P<0.05). However, in the control group, changes in body weight, body mass index, HbA1c, total cholesterol, HDL-c, and LDL-c levels did not significantly differ before and after the intervention period (P>0.05). As consumption of whole-wheat bread has positive effects on control of various physical and biochemical indictors in patients with diabetes, its consumption should be included in educational programs at health centers across the country.

Physical and mental growth and development in children with congenital hypothyroidism: a case-control study

Introduction

The clinical complications of congenital hypothyroidism such as brain disorders are very subtle and are not recognizable in infancy period. They are recognizable when it is too late for treatment or prevention. General screening of newborns is effective in diagnosing congenital hypothyroidism and initiating initial treatment. The aim of this study is to compare the physical and mental growth pattern of children with congenital hypothyroidism with healthy ones.

Methods

This case–control study was performed on 34 patients and 68 healthy children who were matched in terms of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Children development screening test (ASQ), children development assessment test (Bayley), preschool Wechsler intelligence scale (WPPSI) and age and steps questionnaire of emotional social development (ASQ-SE) were completed by trained questioners. Data were analyzed using STATA software.

Results

The results indicated that there was no significant difference between the mean of verbal (P = 0.77), non-verbal (P = 0.81) and general (P = 0.66) IQ in permanent and transient patients and healthy individuals. Also, there was no significant difference between the mean of different ranges of ASQ test (including communication, delicate and large movements, problem solving and social) at 12 months and 42 months (P < 0.05). According to Bayley test, there was no significant difference between the cases (permanent and transient) and controls in the cognitive (P = 0.42) and expressive (P = 0.38) categories. The difference was significant in the perceptual (P = 0.011), large (P = 0.03) and delicate (P = 0.04) movements categories.

Conclusion

This study emphasized on the high effectiveness of neonate hypothyroidism screening program, so that the difference between 3.5 years old children with and without this disease has decreased significantly. Early diagnosis of the patients, while creating beneficial effects for patients and increasing quality of life, cause reduction in the long-term costs of the health system.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Abu Al Qasim Al Zahrawi (Albucasis) and types of his used surgical knives

BACKGROUND

Surgical incisions require surgical knives. Different surgical knives have been used for surgical practice since its first appearance in surgical science, and evolved according to its progress. Albucasis, Spanish physician (936-1013 AD), is one of the surgical science pioneers whose initiatives in therapeutic and surgical methods are appreciable, as are his surgical instruments including numerous surgical knives. This study aims at thoroughly investigating the appearance, specifications, innovations, and applications of knives in specific surgical techniques.

METHODS

Volume 30 of the Al-Tasrif li-man ajaza'an al-ta'lif (Al-Tasrif) of Albucasis was complemented with findings in Google Scholar, Ovid, PubMed, Science Direct, and Scopus databases to assess the types of surgical knives used by Albucasis and individualized for different diseases.

RESULTS

The majority of the knives in Al-Tasrif have special names such as Mesbar, Maghdah, and Meshel. He chose a special knife dependent on the type of surgery and the incision needed, and adapted the shape of each knife to its use.

CONCLUSIONS

Albucasis, more than previous physicians, such as Paulus Aegineta (625-690 AD), has invented surgical knives on basis of his own experiences and observations. His accurate knowledge of surgical techniques has resulted in appropriate designing and making functional knives.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of cold stress on polyamine metabolism and antioxidant responses in chickpea

Metabolic and genomic characteristics of polyamines (PAs) may be associated with the induction of cold tolerance (CT) responses in plants. Characteristics of PAs encoding genes in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) and their function under cold stress (CS) are currently unknown. In this study, the potential role of PAs along with the antioxidative defense systems were assessed in two chickpea genotypes (Sel96th11439, cold-tolerant and ILC533, cold-sensitive) under CS conditions. Six days after exposure to CS, the leaf H₂O₂ content and electrolyte leakage index increased in the sensitive genotype by 47.7 and 59 %, respectively, while these values decreased or remained unchanged, respectively, in the tolerant genotype. In tolerant genotype, the enhanced activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD) (by 50 %) was accompanied by unchanged activities of ascorbate peroxidase (APX), guaiacol peroxidase (GPX) and catalase (CAT) as well as the accumulation of glutathione (GSH) (by 43 %) on the sixth day of CS. Higher levels of putrescine (Put) (322 %), spermidine (Spd) (45 %), spermine (Spm) (69 %) and the highest ratio of Put/(Spd + Spm) were observed in tolerant genotype compared to the sensitive one on the sixth day of CS. Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) accumulation was 74 % higher in tolerant genotype compared to the sensitive one on the sixth day of CS. During CS, the activity of diamine oxidase (DAO) and polyamine oxidase (PAO) increased in tolerant (by 3.02- and 2.46-fold) and sensitive (by 2.51- and 2.8-fold) genotypes, respectively, in comparison with the respective non-stressed plants (normal conditions). The highest activity of DAO and PAO in the tolerant genotype was accompanied by PAs decomposition and a peak in GABA content on the sixth day of CS. The analysis of chickpea genome revealed the presence of five PAs biosynthetic genes, their chromosomal locations, and cis-regulatory elements. A significant increase in transcript levels of arginine decarboxylase (ADC) (24.26- and 7.96-fold), spermidine synthase 1 (SPDS1) (3.03- and 1.53-fold), SPDS2 (5.5- and 1.62-fold) and spermine synthase (SPMS) (3.92- and 1.65-fold) genes was detected in tolerant and sensitive genotypes, respectively, whereas the expression of ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) genes decreased significantly under CS conditions in both genotypes. Leaf chlorophyll and carotenoid contents exhibited declining trends in the sensitive genotype, while these photosynthetic pigments were stable in the tolerant genotype due to the superior performance of defensive processes under CS conditions. Overall, these results suggested the specific roles of putative PAs genes and PAs metabolism in development of effective CT responses in chickpea.

The effect of Iran's health transformation plan on hospital performance: Kerman province

Iran has performed Health Transformation Plan (HTP) from 2014 to obtain its defined goals. This study assesses and compares university and non-university hospitals' efficiency and productivity in Kerman provinces, Iran. The data of 19 selected hospitals, two years before and two years after Health Transformation Plan, was collected in this cross-sectional study. These data included the variables of physician and nurse number, and active beds as inputs and bed occupancy rate and inpatient admission adjusted with the length of stay as outputs. Data Envelopment Analysis method used to measure hospital efficiency. Malmquist Productivity Index is used to measure the efficiency change model before and after the plan. The efficiency and effect of the plan on hospitals' efficiency and productivity were assessed using R software. The results indicated that all hospitals' average efficiency before the HTP was 0.843 and after the HTP was increased to 0.874. However, it was not significant (P>0.05). Productivity also had a decreasing trend. Based on the DEA method results, it was found that university and non-university hospitals' efficiency and productivity did not increase significantly after the HTP. Therefore, it is recommended that attention be paid to hospitals' performance indicators regarding how resources are allocated and decisions made.

Rifampin resistance among individuals with extrapulmonary tuberculosis: 4 years of experience from a reference laboratory

Information is limited about the drug resistance patterns in extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) in Iran. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of EPTB and to investigate the drug-resistance pattern in Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains collected from extrapulmonary samples at the Tehran regional TB reference laboratory. Extrapulmonary specimens from individuals with suspected TB referred to the TB reference laboratories in five cities of Iran were collected. Both standard conventional methods (culture and direct smear microscopy) and Xpert MTB/RIF assay were used for the identification of mycobacteria. Drug susceptibility testing was done using Xpert MTB/RIF. The proportion method on Lowenstein–Jensen medium was performed for confirmation. Between 2016 and 2020, a total of 12 050 clinical specimens from individuals with suspected TB were collected, of which 10 380 (86%) were pulmonary specimens and 1670 (14%) were extrapulmonary. Of the extrapulmonary specimens, 85 (5.0%) were positive for M. tuberculosis, and the remaining 1585 (95.0%) samples were negative by standard methods. Of 85 M. tuberculosis isolates, drug susceptibility testing was performed for 32 isolates, of which 1 (3.1%, 95% CI 0.0%–9.4%) was rifampin resistant and 31 (96.9%, 95% CI 90.1%–100%) were pan-susceptible. The rifampin-resistant isolate was also resistant to isoniazid, so was assigned as a multidrug-resistant TB. Our study indicated the frequency of drug-resistance among EPTB in Iran. Establishing rapid diagnostic methods for detection of drug-resistance in EPTB, performing drug susceptibility testing for all EPTB cases to provide effective treatment, and continuous monitoring of drug resistance, are suggested for prevention and control of drug resistance in EPTB in Iran.

Traditional and Dairy Products and Vegetables Dietary Patterns Are Inversely Associated with the Risk of Cataract in the Middle Age and Aged Population: A Case-Control Study

OBJECTIVES

Cataract is one of the most common causes of visual impairment and blindness in the world. In the present study, we have been trying to investigate the relationship between major dietary patterns and cataract.

DESIGN

This was a case-control study.

SETTING

An ophthalmology outpatient clinic of Khatam al-Anbia Hospital, in Shoushtar city.

PARTICIPANTS

336 subjects (168 patients with cataract and 168 healthy ones), from 40 to 80 years old, were recruited.

MEASUREMENTS

A socio-demographic questionnaire was used to record the demographic information. A food frequency questionnaire was used to determine the foods consumed during the last year. The principal component analysis was used to extract major dietary patterns. The possible relationship between the major dietary patterns and cataract was assessed by multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We tried to eliminate the effect of cofactors. The results showed "dairy products and vegetables" dietary pattern had a negative association with cataract (OR: 0.301, 95%CI =0.137-0.658, P trend =0.002). The fourth quartile of the "traditional" dietary pattern also showed a protective role against the cataract (OR: 0.393, 95%CI =0.184-0.842, P trend = 0.036). The third and fourth quartiles of "carbohydrate and simple sugar" pattern were more related with cataract compared to the first quartile (OR: 3.574, 95%CI =1.665-7.671, and OR: 5.067, 95%CI =2.265-11.335, P trend <0.001 respectively). No significant association was found between «nuts, seeds and simple sugar" dietary pattern and cataract.

CONCLUSION

It seems a dietary pattern rich in proteins and vegetables can decrease the risk of cataract in middle-aged and aged subjects.

Clinical Characteristics and Reproduction Number of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Cases in Markazi Province in Iran

BACKGROUND

The first case of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) was reported in Iran on February 19, 2020. This study aimed to assess the characteristics and reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 in Markazi province in Iran.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study. Confirmed cases (N=2430) in the regions covered by Arak University of Medical Sciences from Feb 20 to Aug 26, 2020 were enrolled in the study. The included variables were clinical and demographic characteristics of COVID-19 patients. The case fatality rate (CFR), incidence rates, and R were estimated based on the daily reported data. For estimating R, generation time was assumed on multi scenarios. R was estimated by R0-package. Moreover, Chi square test was applied. All the analyses were performed in STATA, Excel, ArcMap and R. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.

RESULTS

CONCLUSION

As R is slightly high, the risk of epidemic has reduced gradually. However, observing social distance and related guidelines are still recommended.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Toward Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Central Area of Iran: A Population-Based Study

Background: The spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has imposed high threats on global health, life and work style, and social and economic development. The current study aimed to extract knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to COVID-19 among the general population in the central area of Iran.

Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Arak City between April and May 2020. Stratified random sampling was applied to select the study participants. Phone interview was applied to collect the data. Data were collected using a questionnaire that was constructed and validated in this study. The questionnaire included demographic variables and items about knowledge, attitudes, and practices toward COVID-19. Descriptive and inferential analyses were conducted in STATA software.

Results: In total, 544 participants completed the questionnaire; 76% of the participants accounted COVID-19 as a high threat 1 month from the onset of COVID-19. From the maximum attainable scores of 1, 6, and 6, for COVID-19-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices, means of 0.77 (0.13), 4.97 (0.63), and 5.35 (0.70) were obtained, respectively. Females had a higher practice score (5.4 ± 0.6). The participants with a family history of heart and respiratory diseases had significantly higher attitude and practice scores. SMS from the Ministry of Health had a significant impact on knowledge, attitude, and practice scores (p < 0.05).

Conclusion: Higher attention should be given to increase the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of men and the housewife group. COVID-19 preventive messaging from the Ministry of Health was among the most influential methods of increasing knowledge that attracted public attention.

Epidemiological status of suicide in the Middle East and North Africa countries (MENA) from 1990 to 2017

Background

Suicide is proposed as an important and growing issue in public health. The aim of this study is to compare suicide load in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in order to pave the way for correct health policy making.

Methods

The population included 21 MENA countries. The data of Global Burden of Diseases in 2017 that estimate death rate for 264 causes was used. The GBD considers suicide according to definition of the ninth and tenth editions of the international classification of diseases as death due to poisoning or intentional self-injury. All suicide-related analyzes were evaluated using these indicators in excel 2016.

Results

The highest percentage of total suicide DALY attributable to risk factors of Alcohol and drug use are related to United Arab Emirates and Afghanistan countries, respectively. Iran is the sole country without suicide DALY attributable to alcohol consumption risk factor. Moroccan women and Libya, Afghanistan and Yemen men have the highest DALY rates in terms of ASR in the region, respectively. Suicide incidence have an increasing trend until the age group of 20–24 and then a decreasing trend. This trend is on the rise again since the age of 65.

Discussion

The necessity to improve social, cultural and economic factors along with effective measures on suicide prevention especially among low and middle income countries, performing more studies and precise registration of the cases especially in the areas that suicide is considered social stigma and crime should be considered as high agenda in national and regional strategies.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Genotyping and drug susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Iran: a multi-centre study

Tuberculosis (TB) is a deadly infection and caused 1.4 million deaths in 2018. Assessing the geographic distribution of major lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis can contribute greatly to TB control. Mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing is commonly used to differentiate various lineages of M. tuberculosis. A total of 2747 clinical specimens were collected consecutively from October 2018 through June 2019. Clinical isolates were identified as M. tuberculosis using standard biochemical tests. The standard 15-locus MIRU-VNTR typing was used for the genotyping of clinical isolates. Drug susceptibility testing was performed using the conventional proportion method. From the collected specimens, 100 were culture positive for M. tuberculosis. Using MIRU-VNTR, 99 different patterns were detected among the 100 isolates. They were distributed in one cluster comprising two strains and 98 unique patterns. Most of our isolates were similar to New-1 and Delhi/CAS strains. Of the M. tuberculosis isolates, 83 (83.0%) were pan-susceptible and 17 (17.0%) were resistant to at least one drug. Our study showed that MIRU-VNTR is a useful method for studying the genetic diversity of M. tuberculosis isolates in different regional settings and will help the health authorities to construct a preventive programme for TB.

World one-hundred days after COVID-19 outbreak: Incidence, case fatality rate, and trend

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of viral diseases is on the rise and has caused many problems for public health. COVID-19 is a new viral outbreak in the world. This study aimed to investigate the trends of incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in the world by April 30, 2020.

METHODS

This was a descriptive-analytical study. We investigated the number of cases and deaths in 35 selected countries and regions of the WHO that had at least 10,000 cases by the time of the study. In addition, the incidence and CFR of COVID-19 were investigated. Finally, time trends of the number of cases, deaths, and CFR were investigated using ordinary least squares regression models.

RESULTS

The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 3,090,184. The European region had the highest number of COVID-19 patients (1,434,649 [46.43%]). Ukraine with 10,406 and the USA with 1,003,974 cases have reported the lowest and highest confirmed cases, respectively. In addition, the European region and the African region with 157.13 and 2.50 patients per 100,000 population had the highest and the lowest incidence rate, respectively. India (2.44) and Spain (455.69) had the lowest and the highest incidence rate per 100,000 population, respectively. In the world, 217,759 deaths have happened, of which 135,961 (62.44%) were reported in the European region. Furthermore, the USA had the highest number of deaths (52,428) due to COVID-19. CFR was 7.05% in the world, which ranged from 3.74% in the African region and 9.48% in the European region. The number of patients and deaths due to COVID-19 had increasing trends in all countries, and the trend of CFR just for Iran and Ukraine was negative.

CONCLUSION

The countries had different trends in the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. However, regarding the increasing trend of the disease in the world, it will be more important to rely on public prevention strategies. It is necessary to apply and continue public health policies at national and global levels till the control of the disease.

Preferences of Medical Sciences Students for Work Contracts in Deprived Areas of Iran: A Discrete Choice Experiment Analysis

Background

An unequal distribution of human resources affects access to health-care services. This study aimed to elicit the preferences of medical, dentistry, and pharmacy students about attributes of work contracts in deprived areas of Iran; this is a primary important step to decrease inequity.

Methods

Two-hundred and one students were entered into the study through proportional sample size estimation from Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences in the west of Iran in 2018. The attributes of work contracts were determined using the discrete choice experiment (DCE) method, then possible dual scenarios of work contracts were designed through the D-efficiency method of SAS software and the data were collected using a questionnaire designed by the researchers. The conditional logistic model was used to analyze the data.

Results

Salary, workplace, side facilities, scholarship, and workload were considered as important factors for working in the deprived areas (p<0.001). There were differences between the students’ preferences regarding their residential areas, majors, and state or tuition-paying education (p<0.001). Higher payments, side facilities, and availability of quota after working in the deprived areas were considered as creators of higher utility, and working in deprived areas and high workload were considered as creators of lower utility (p<0.001).

Conclusion

This study provides new evidence about the preferences of medical sciences students for work contracts in deprived areas of Iran. According to the findings, money is not the only factor that affects the decisions of medical sciences students related to working contracts in deprived areas of Iran. Designing work contracts that are matched with preferences of the workforce can lead to an improvement in equity, access, and utilization of health-care services.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of drug use, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking and measure of socioeconomic-related inequalities of drug use among Iranian people: findings from a national survey

Background

Drug use can lead to several psychological, medical and social complications. The current study aimed to measure and decomposes socioeconomic-related inequalities in drug use among adults in Iran.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study The PERSIAN Cohort is the largest and most important cohort among 18 distinct areas of Iran. This study was conducted on 130,570 adults 35 years and older. A structured questionnaire was applied to collect data. The concentration index (C) was used to quantify and decompose socioeconomic inequalities in drug use.

Results

The prevalence experience of drug use was 11.9%. The estimated C for drug use was − 0.021. The corresponding value of the C for women and men were − 0.171 and − 0.134, respectively. The negative values of the C suggest that drug use is more concentrated among the population with low socioeconomic status in Iran (p < 0.001). For women, socioeconomic status (SES) (26.37%), province residence (− 22.38%) and age (9.76%) had the most significant contribution to socioeconomic inequality in drug use, respectively. For men, SES (80.04%), smoking (32.04%) and alcohol consumption (− 12.37%) were the main contributors to socioeconomic inequality in drug use.

Conclusions

Our study indicated that drug use prevention programs in Iran should focus on socioeconomically disadvantaged population. Our finding could be useful for health policy maker to design and implement effective preventative programs to protect Iranian population against the drug use.

Estimating the cost of vaccination in southeastern Iran

Background: Specification of vaccination cost of children would help policymakers in determining the nation-wide budget needed for the maintenance of the vaccination program. The budget came these days under scrutiny due to the imposed sanctions tightening the public funds. This study aims at estimating the cost of vaccination in southeastern Iran for obtaining more accurate budget projections. Methods: Fifty-two healthcare centers from 10 cities in south-east Iran participated in using a quota sampling method for their selection. A bottom-up method determined the human resource use, the consumption, and the overhead costs to estimate the cost of vaccination. Data collection used a standard tool that was adjusted to local conditions. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: The overall vaccination cost for the region was estimated at around 5,984,000 USD for the year 2015. Salaries took the largest part of the cost estimate (64%), while vaccine cost and its equipment were much lower (22%). The average cost per vaccine dose administrated was 40.94 USD. Sensitivity analysis of the population and inflation rate indicates that the vaccination cost may fluctuate between 37% and 53% over 6 years (2021) from the data of 2015. Conclusion: Maintaining vaccination has a substantial cost. The results of the study will support the budget planning and decision making and will define more precisely the resource allocation needed for maintaining the vaccination at a high level across the country. It may also help to facilitate the assessment of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis when new vaccines should be introduced.

Future Trends of the Primary Healthcare System in Iran: A Qualitative Study

Background

Primary healthcare system in Iran has played an extensive role in promoting people health in the past decades. However, regarding universal developments in the different global aspects effective on health, the performance of this system has been influenced significantly. The aim of the present research is to identify the future trends of the primary health care in Iran.

Methods

The participants of this qualitative case study were experts in primary healthcare, which were selected and interviewed through purposive sampling method. The interview process was saturated after 25 interviews, so we stopped the process at this point. Framework analysis based on STEEP model used to analysis the interviews.

Results

The most important social/value, technological, economic, environmental, and political future trends of primary healthcare in Iran included demographic transition, epidemiological transition, social and cultural changes, emergence of modern and advanced technologies, internet and cyberspace, budgeting limitations, resource management, changing paradigm from volume to value in providing health services, environmental pollutions, natural disasters, health governance, intellectual paradigm of senior officials, regional security, international development, and other internal factors of the health system.

Conclusions

The identified factors can be turned into opportunities for Iran primary healthcare system if health planners and policymakers have a deep and accurate look at these influential factors and manage them properly.

Global, Regional, and National Levels and Trends in Burden of Oral Conditions from 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Government and nongovernmental organizations need national and global estimates on the descriptive epidemiology of common oral conditions for policy planning and evaluation. The aim of this component of the Global Burden of Disease study was to produce estimates on prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability for oral conditions from 1990 to 2017 by sex, age, and countries. In addition, this study reports the global socioeconomic pattern in burden of oral conditions by the standard World Bank classification of economies as well as the Global Burden of Disease Socio-demographic Index. The findings show that oral conditions remain a substantial population health challenge. Globally, there were 3.5 billion cases (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 3.2 to 3.7 billion) of oral conditions, of which 2.3 billion (95% UI, 2.1 to 2.5 billion) had untreated caries in permanent teeth, 796 million (95% UI, 671 to 930 million) had severe periodontitis, 532 million (95% UI, 443 to 622 million) had untreated caries in deciduous teeth, 267 million (95% UI, 235 to 300 million) had total tooth loss, and 139 million (95% UI, 133 to 146 million) had other oral conditions in 2017. Several patterns emerged when the World Bank’s classification of economies and the Socio-demographic Index were used as indicators of economic development. In general, more economically developed countries have the lowest burden of untreated dental caries and severe periodontitis and the highest burden of total tooth loss. The findings offer an opportunity for policy makers to identify successful oral health strategies and strengthen them; introduce and monitor different approaches where oral diseases are increasing; plan integration of oral health in the agenda for prevention of noncommunicable diseases; and estimate the cost of providing universal coverage for dental care.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.

METHODS

The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.

INTERPRETATION

Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years.

FINDINGS

Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1-87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1-74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2-15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6-10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8-8·4).

INTERPRETATION

Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.