Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Repurposing of Strychnine as the Potential Inhibitors of Aldo-keto Reductase Family 1 Members B1 and B10: Computational Modeling and Pharmacokinetic Analysis

AKR1B1 and AKR1B10 are important members of aldo-keto reductase family which plays a significant role in cancer progression by modulating cellular metabolism. These enzymes are involved in various metabolic processes, including the synthesis and metabolism of hormones, detoxification of reactive aldehydes, and the reduction of various endogenous and exogenous compounds. This study aimed to explore the potential of strychnine as an anticancer agent by targeting AKR1B1 and AKR1B10 via drug repurposing approach. To assess the drug-like properties of strychnine, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PKPB) model and High Throughput Pharmacokinetics (HTPK) approach were employed. The obtained results fell within the expected range for drug molecules, confirming its suitability for further investigation. Additionally, density functional theory (DFT) studies were conducted to gain insight into the electronic properties contributing to the drug molecule's reactivity. Building upon the promising DFT results, molecular docking analysis using the AutoDock tool was performed to examine the binding interactions between strychnine and the proposed targets, AKR1B1 and AKR1B10. Findings from the molecular docking studies suggested a higher probability of strychnine acting as an inhibitor of AKR1B1 and AKR1B10 with docking scores of - 30.84 and - 29.36 kJ/mol respectively. To validate the stability of the protein-ligand complex, Molecular Dynamic Simulation (MDS) studies were conducted, revealing the formation of a stable complex between the enzymes and strychnine. This comprehensive approach sheds light on the potential effectiveness of strychnine as a treatment for breast, lung, liver, and pancreatic cancers, as well as related malignancies. The novel insights gained from the physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling, density functional theory, molecular docking, and molecular dynamics simulations collectively support the prospect of strychnine as a promising molecule for anticancer therapy. Further investigations are warranted to validate these findings and explore the therapeutic potential of strychnine in preclinical and clinical settings.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessment of pheniramine in alternative biological matrices by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

Pheniramine is an over-the-counter antihistamine drug. Its accessibility and low cost made it more popular among drug abusers in Pakistan. In this study, pheniramine was quantified in both conventional and alternative specimens of twenty chronic drug abusers, aged 16-50 years, who were positive for pheniramine in comprehensive toxicological screening for drugs by gas chromatography with mass spectral detection in positive electron impact mode. Pheniramine was extracted from biological specimens using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry was employed for quantification. Chromatographic separation was carried out on a Poroshell120EC-18 (2.1 mm × 50 mm × 2.7 µm) column using water-acetonitrile in formic acid (0.1%) mobile phase in gradient elution mode with 500 μL/min flow rate. Positive electrospray ionization mode and multi-reaction monitoring with ion transitions m/z 241.3 → 195.8 and 167.1 for pheniramine and m/z m/z 247.6 → 173.1 for pheniramine-d6 were employed. The quantification method showed good linear ranges of 2-1000 ng/mL in blood, urine, and oral fluid; 2-1000 ng/mg in hair and 5-1000 ng/mg in nail with ≥ 0.985% coefficient of linearity. The retention time of pheniramine was 3.0 ± 0.1 min. The detection and lower quantification limits were 1 ng/mL and 2 ng/mL for blood, urine, oral fluid and hair whereas 2.5 ng/mg and 5 ng/mg for nail, respectively. Mean extraction recovery and ionization suppression ranged 86.3-95.1% and -4.6 to -14.4% in the studied matrices. Intra-day and inter-day precision were 4.1-9.3% and 2.8-11.2%, respectively. Pheniramine levels in specimens of drug abusers were 23-480 ng/mL in blood, 72-735 ng/mL in urine, 25-379 ng/mL in oral fluid, 10-170 ng/mg in hair and 8-86 ng/mg in nail specimens. Alternative specimens are of utmost significance in clinical and medico-legal cases. In this study, authors compared matrix-matched calibration curves to blood calibration curve and obtained results within ± 10%; thereby justifying the use of blood calibration curve for urine, oral fluid, hair, and nail specimens.

Vector integration and fate in the hemophilia dog liver multi-years following AAV-FVIII gene transfer

Gene therapy using adeno-associated viral (AAV) vectors is a promising approach for the treatment of monogenic disorders. Long-term multi-year transgene expression has been demonstrated in animal models and clinical studies. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain concerning the nature of AAV vector persistence and whether there is a potential for genotoxicity. Here, we describe the mechanisms of AAV vector persistence in the liver of a severe hemophilia A dog model (male = 4, hemizygous, and female = 4, homozygous), more than a decade after portal vein delivery. The predominant vector form was non-integrated episomal structures with levels correlating with long-term transgene expression. Random integration was seen in all samples (median frequency= 9.3e-4 sites/cell), with small numbers of non-random common integration sites associated with open chromatin. No full-length integrated vectors were found, supporting predominant episomal vector-mediated long-term transgene expression. Despite integration, this was not associated with oncogene upregulation or histopathological evidence of tumorigenesis. These findings support the long-term safety of this therapeutic modality.

In vivo analysis the effect of antibiotic growth promoters (AGPs), Oxytetracycline di-hydrate and Tylosin phosphate on the intestinal microflora in broiler chicken

Abstract The study was aimed to analyse the effects of antibiotic growth promoters (AGPs), Oxytetracycline di-hydrate and Tylosin phosphate on the intestinal microflora in broiler chicken. The AGPs were provided in different concentrations solely or in combinations for 42 days of rearing. Faecal samples were collected from the intestine (duodenum, jejunum and caeca) of broiler chicken on 14th, 28th and 42nd days of trial. Samples were cultured on different selective medium and bacterial identification was performed by different biochemical and molecular diagnostic tools. Results showed a significant effect of AGPs on the growth of pathogenic microorganisms such as Escherichia coli and Clostridium perfringens in the intestine. Interestingly, an impaired growth was observed for both bacterium showing a significant effect (P<0.05) of AGPs on E. coli and C. perfringens on day 14th, 28th, and 42nd. This effect was observed solely and in combination while using AGPs. Data further showed that the effect was more prominent in combination and with an increase concentration of AGPs. Remarkably, no impairment was seen on the growth of L. reuteri at different sites of intestine and duration (14th, 28th, and 42nd days). The results showed that the use of AGPs in diet has no harmful effect on beneficial bacteria, however, an impaired growth was seen on the harmful bacteria. It is suggested that a combination of AGPs (OXY-1.0+TP-0.5) is economical and have no harmful effect on the broiler chicken. The use of AGPs in a recommended dose and for a specific period of time are safe to use in poultry both as growth promoter and for the prevention of diseases.

Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.

FINDINGS

Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 infection among tuberculosis patients: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Influenza and tuberculosis both cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the burden of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection among human tuberculosis patients and the general population.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted among a cohort group (TB positive patients) as exposed and a comparison group (general population) as non-exposed. A total of 304 participants were recruited in both groups and followed for a period of 12 weeks. Of the 304 concurrently enrolled individuals, 152 were TB-positive patients (cohort group) and 152 were from the general population (comparison group).To calculate the sample size, the power of study was kept at 80% for detecting a difference at 5% alpha level assuming the 25% prevalence of respiratory viruses in cohort group compared to 12.5% in general population. An oropharyngeal swab was taken from a participant with symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI). Samples were tested by conventional reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for the detection of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09. All statistical analyses were conducted using R software.

RESULTS

A total of 95 participants developed influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms. Among these, 64 tested positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, of which 39 were from the exposed group and 25 were from the non-exposed group. During the 12-week period of follow-up, the influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 incidence rate was 20 per 1000 people. The risk of testing positive for influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 was 1.66 times higher in the exposed group compared to the non-exposed group. The cumulative incidence indicated that 25% of the TB cohort and 16% of the comparison group were at risk of getting influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 during the 12 weeks of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Participants from the TB cohort had a higher incidence of influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 than the general population suggesting that they should be prioritized for influenza vaccination.

Synthesis, DFT and molecular docking of novel (Z)-4-bromo-N-(4-butyl-3 (quinolin-3-yl)thiazol-2(3H)-ylidene)benzamide as elastase inhibitor

A new compound, C23H20BrN3OS, containing a quinoline-based iminothiazoline with a thiazoline ring, was synthesized and its crystal and molecular structures were analyzed through single crystal X-ray analysis. The compound belongs to the triclinic system P - 1 space group, with dimensions of a = 9.2304 (6) Å, b = 11.1780 (8) Å, c = 11.3006 (6) Å, α = 107.146 (5)°, β = 93.701 (5)°, γ = 110.435 (6)°, Z = 2 and V = 1025.61 (12) Å3. The crystal structure showed that C-H···N and C-H···O hydrogen bond linkages, forming infinite double chains along the b-axis direction, and enclosing R22(14) and R22(16) ring motifs. The Hirshfeld surface analysis revealed that H…H (44.1%) and H…C/C…H (15.3%) interactions made the most significant contribution. The newly synthesized (Z)-4-bromo-N-(4-butyl-3 (quinolin-3-yl)thiazol-2(3H)-ylidene)benzamide, in comparison to oleanolic acid, exhibited more strong potential against elastase with an inhibition value of 1.21 µM. Additionally, the derivative was evaluated using molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation studies, which showed that the quinoline based iminothiazoline derivative has the potential to be a novel inhibitor of elastase enzyme. Both theoretical and experimental findings suggested that this compound could have a number of biological activities.

Assessment of lithium bioaccumulation by quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa willd.) and its implication for human health

Lithium (Li) is the lightest alkali metal and 27th most abundant element in the earth crust. In traces, the element has medicinal value for various disorders in humans, however, its higher concentrations may lead to treatment-resistant depression and altered thyroid functioning. Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) has gained popularity owing to its halophytic nature and its potential use as an alternative to the traditional staple foods. However, quinoa response to Li-salt in terms of growth, Li accumulation potential and health risks associated with consumption of the quinoa seeds grown on Li-contaminated soils has not been explored yet. During this study, quinoa was exposed to various concentrations of Li (0, 2, 4, 8 and 16 mM) at germination as well as seedling stages. The results showed that seed germination was the highest (64% higher than control) at Li concentration of 8 mM. Similarly, at 8 mM doses of Li shoot length, shoot dry weight, root length, root dry weight and grain yield were increased by 130%, 300%, 244%, 858% and 185% than control. It was also revealed that Li increased the accumulation of calcium and sodium in quinoa shoots. Carotenoids contents were increased, but chlorophyll contents remained un-changed under Li application. The activities of antioxidants viz. Peroxide dismutase, catalase and super oxide dismutase were also increased with an increase in the levels of Li in the soil. Estimated daily intake and hazard quotient of Li in quinoa were less than the threshold level. It was concluded that Li concentration of 8 mM is useful for quinoa growth and it can be successfully grown on Li contaminated soils without causing any human health risks.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and Predictors of Stunting in Children Under Five Years of Age

Stunting in children under five years of age is a significant health problem in many middle and low-income countries worldwide. The study aimed to analyse the prevalence and predictors of stunting in children under five years of age. Preferred reporting items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA Checklist 2020) were used for data reporting and analysis. Medline, PubMed, Google Scholar, PakMedinet, and direct websites of local journals were searched for relevant publications from 1996 to March 2022. A random-effect model was employed to generate a pooled prevalence and was presented as a percent and 95% confidence interval (CI). A total of thirty-three studies were selected for systematic review. Out of these, nine studies were selected from the last five years to estimate pooled prevalence in children under five years of age. The overall pooled prevalence was 39.11% (95% CI: 33.017 to 45.394). A significant heterogeneity with I2 = 99.39%, p <0.0001, was found among the studies. The remaining twenty-four studies with the prevalence of stunting under five years of age were also divided into two groups based on the age range, either <2 years or 2-5 years of age. The pooled prevalence was 39.11%. Mother's education was the most frequent predictor (85%), followed by socioeconomic status (64 %), breastfeeding (55%), and the weight of the child at birth (40%).    Key Words: Prevalence, Predictors, Stunting, Children under five years, Systematic review.

Phenobarbital-Based Protocol for Alcohol Withdrawal Syndrome in a Medical ICU: Pre-Post Implementation Study

We assessed the efficacy and safety of PB compared with benzodiazepine (BZD)-based protocols in treating AWS in MICU.

DESIGN

Single-center, pre-post protocol implementation study.

SETTING

The setting is a forty-bed MICU in a tertiary-level academic medical center.

PATIENTS

We included all patients admitted to the MICU with a primary diagnosis of AWS.

INTERVENTIONS

Intravenous PB 260 mg followed by 130-mg doses every 15-30 minutes as needed up to 15 mg/kg of ideal body weight versus escalating doses of BZD, to achieve a Clinical Institute Withdrawal Assessment Alcohol Scale-Revised score less than 10.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS), in addition to safety measures were the main outcomes of the study. A total of 102 patients were included, 51 in the PB arm and 51 in the BZD arm. There were no differences in baseline clinical characteristics. Half the patients in each group were admitted with delirium tremens. The use of PB-based protocol was associated with 35% reduction in median ICU LOS (1.5 d [interquartile range, 1.2-2.4 d] vs 2.3 d [1.4-4.8 d]; p = 0.009) and 50% reduction in hospital LOS (3 d [2.7-4 d] vs 6 d [4-10 d]; p < 0.001). After adjustment for comorbidities and clinical factors, PB protocol decreased ICU LOS days by 40% (95% CI; 25.8-53.5%). PB group required fewer adjunctive medications to control symptoms (0.7 [0.5-1] vs 2.5 [2-3]; p < 0.001), less need for intubation (1/51 [2%] vs 10/10 [19.6%]; p = 0.023) and less need for physical restraint (19/51 [37.3%] vs 29/51 [56.9%]; p = 0.047), compared with the BZD group.

CONCLUSIONS

A protocol utilizing rapidly escalating doses of PB over a short period is an effective and safe alternative to BZD in treating AWS in MICU.

Substance Abuse and Mental Health Issues Among HIV/AIDS Patients

Psychiatric morbidity commonly coexists with substance abuse and HIV/AIDS around the globe. This review study aimed to determine the available literature on the prevalence of common substance abuse/use and common mental health illnesses among HIV/AIDS patients worldwide to help policymakers design appropriate strategies to limit extensive substance use and prevent common mental and health illnesses. For the comprehensive literature review, Google Scholar, PubMed Central, Medline, and PakMediNet biomedical databases were searched for original and reviewed studies published in English, from January 2000 to September 2021. Selections of studies and extraction of data from the studies were performed based on quality and inclusion criteria. MedCalc Meta-analysis Software Package version 20.009 was used for data analysis. Out of 103,024 HIV/AIDS patients inspected in 30 studies, 6430 HIV/AIDS patients had pooled prevalence of depression 30.31% (95%CI: 26.028 to 34.786), and 6927 study participants reported the overall current pooled prevalence of any substance use was 25.13% (95%CI: 11.526 to 41.897), respectively. Current alcohol consumption and tobacco smoking are the most common substance abuse, and depression and anxiety are the most common mental health disorders among HIV/AIDS patients. There was no significant publication bias, but substantial heterogeneity was observed in the presented studies. The current systematic review and meta-analysis showed a greater prevalence of substance abuse and mental health illnesses among HIV/AIDS patients than the general population at the global level. Key Words: Substances, Substance use, Substance abuse, Alcohol abuse, Tobacco smoking, HIV/AIDS, Depression, Anxiety, Mental health, HIV/AIDS, Worldwide.

Differential Effect of Heat Stress on Drought and Salt Tolerance Potential of Quinoa Genotypes: A Physiological and Biochemical Investigation

Soil salinity, drought, and increasing temperatures are serious environmental issues that drastically reduce crop productivity worldwide. Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd) is an important crop for food security under the changing climate. This study examined the physio-biochemical responses, plant growth, and grain yield of four quinoa genotypes (A7, Titicaca, Vikinga, and Puno) grown in pots containing normal (non-saline) or salt-affected soil exposed to drought and elevated-temperature treatments. Combinations of drought, salinity, and high-temperature stress decreased plant growth and yield more than the individual stresses. The combined drought, salinity, and heat stress treatment decreased the shoot biomass of A7, Puno, Titicaca, and Vikinga by 27, 36, 41, and 50%, respectively, compared to that of control plants. Similar trends were observed for grain yield, chlorophyll contents, and stomatal conductance. The combined application of these three stresses increased Na concentrations but decreased K concentrations in roots and shoots relative to control. Moreover, in the combined salinity, drought, and high-temperature treatment, A7, Puno, Titicaca, and Vikinga had 7.3-, 6.9-, 8-, and 12.6-fold higher hydrogen peroxide contents than control plants. All four quinoa genotypes increased antioxidant enzyme activities (CAT, SOD, and POD) to overcome oxidative stress. Despite A7 producing the highest biomass under stress, it did not translate into increased grain production. We conclude that Puno and Titicaca are more tolerant than Vikinga for cultivation in salt-affected soils prone to drought and heat stress.

The state of health in Pakistan and its provinces and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding health trends and estimating the burden of disease at the national and subnational levels helps policy makers track progress and identify disparities in overall health performance. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides comprehensive estimates for Pakistan. Comparison of health indicators since 1990 provides valuable insights about Pakistan's ability to strengthen its health-care system, reduce inequalities, improve female and child health outcomes, achieve universal health coverage, and meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We present estimates of the burden of disease, injuries, and risk factors for Pakistan provinces and territories from 1990 to 2019 based on GBD 2019 to improve health and health outcomes in the country.

METHODS

We used methods and data inputs from GBD 2019 to estimate socio-demographic index, total fertility rate, cause-specific deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, healthy life expectancy, and risk factors for 286 causes of death and 369 causes of non-fatal health loss in Pakistan and its four provinces and three territories from 1990 to 2019. To generate estimates for Pakistan at the national and subnational levels, we used 68 location-years of data to estimate Pakistan-specific demographic indicators, 316 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific causes of death, 579 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific non-fatal outcomes, 296 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific risk factors, and 3089 location-years of data for Pakistan-specific covariates.

FINDINGS

Life expectancy for both sexes in Pakistan increased nationally from 61·1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 60·0-62·1) years in 1990 to 65·9 (63·8-67·8) years in 2019; however, these gains were not uniform across the provinces and federal territories. Pakistan saw a narrowing of the difference in healthy life expectancy between the sexes from 1990 to 2019, as health gains for women occurred at faster rates than for men. For women, life expectancy increased by 8·2% (95% UI 6·3-13·8) between 1990 and 2019, whereas the male life expectancy increased by 7·6% (3·5-11·8). Neonatal disorders, followed by ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections were the leading causes of all-age premature mortality in 2019. Child and maternal malnutrition, air pollution, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, and tobacco consumption were the leading all-age risk factors for death and disability-adjusted life-years at the national level in 2019. Five non-communicable diseases-ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congenital defects, cirrhosis, and chronic kidney disease-were among the ten leading causes of years of life lost in Pakistan. Burden varied by socio-demographic index. Notably, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had the lowest observed gains in life expectancy. Dietary iron deficiency was the leading cause of years lived with disability for both men and women in 1990 and 2019. Low birthweight and short gestation and particulate matter pollution were the leading contributors to overall disease burden in both 1990 and 2019 despite moderate improvements, with a 23·5% (95% UI 3·8-39·2) and 27·6% (14·3-38·6) reduction in age-standardised attributable DALY rates during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Our study shows that progress has been made on reducing Pakistan's disease burden since 1990, but geographical, age, and sex disparities persist. Equitable investment in the health system, as well as the prioritisation of high-impact policy interventions and programmes, are needed to save lives and improve health outcomes. Pakistan is facing several domestic and foreign challenges-the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, political turmoil, catastrophic flooding, the COVID-19 pandemic-that will shape the trajectory of the country's health and development. Pakistan must address the burden of infectious disease and curb rising rates of non-communicable diseases. Prioritising these three areas will enhance Pakistan's ability to achieve universal health coverage, meet its Sustainable Development Goals, and improve the overall health outcomes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATION

For the Urdu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Amidated Pluronic Decorated Muco-Penetrating Self-Nano Emulsifying Drug Delivery System (SNEDDS) for Improved Anti-Salmonella typhi Potential

The enteric system residing notorious Salmonella typhimurium (S. typhi) is an intracellular, food-borne, and zoonotic pathogen causing typhoid fever. Typhoid fever is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in developing and underdeveloped countries. It also increased the prevalence of multidrug resistance globally. Currently, available anti-bacterial modalities are unable to penetrate into the intracellular compartments effectively for eradicating S. typhi infection. Therefore, in this study, we developed nanostructured lipid-based carriers in the form of a self-nanoemulsifying drug delivery system (SNEDDS) for targeted delivery of ciprofloxacin (CIP) into the S. typhi intracellular reservoirs. Capryol 90, Tween 80, and Span 20 were finalized as suitable oil, surfactant, and co-surfactant, respectively, according to the pseudoternary phase diagram emulsifying region. Targeting capability and mucopenetration of the SNEDDS was attributed to the inclusion of amidated pluronic (NH2-F127). Developed NH2-F127 SNEDDS were characterized via physicochemical, in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo evaluation parameters. The size of the SNEDDS was found to be 250 nm, having positively charged zeta potential. In vitro dissolution of SNEDDS showed 80% sustained release of CIP in 72 h with maximum entrapment efficiency up to 90% as well as good hemocompatibility by showing less than 0.2% hemolysis and 90% biocompatibility. The survival rate of S. typhi in macrophages (RAW 264.7) was minimal, i.e., only 2% in the case of NH2-F127 SNEDDS. Macrophage uptake assay via nanostructures confirmed the maximum cellular uptake as evidenced by the highest fluorescence. Biofilm dispersion assay showed rapid eradication of developed resistant biofilms on the gall bladder. In vivo pharmacokinetics showed improved bioavailability by showing an increased area under the curve (AUC) value. Taken together, NH2-F127-SNEDDS can be utilized as an alternative and efficient delivery system for the sustained release of therapeutic amounts of CIP for the treatment of S. typhi.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of age on the 99th percentile of cardiac troponin

Introduction

The 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL) of cardiac troponin (cTn) is diagnostic cutoff for myocardial infarction (MI). Several factors are known to lead to an increase in cTn including sex, kidney function, left ventricular function and various comorbidities. Similarly, studies have shown that cTn concentration of patients increase with age. However, the impact of age on the concentration of cTn in healthy individuals is unclear as several studies of healthy populations showed little to no impact of age.

Purpose

To determine the effect of age on the URL of cTn for the Danish population.

Methods

We invited active and retired blood donors with the aim of including 250 participants of each sex in each of four age groups, &lt;50, 50–60, 60–70 and &gt;70 years, for a total of about 2000 participants. cTn levels were measured by 4 cTn assays (Siemens Atellica and Vista cTnI, Roche cTnT and Abbott Alinity cTnI). The age specific URL were calculated using the non-parametric method. Quantile regression for the 99th percentile was adjusted for sex and creatinine concentration.

Results

A total of 2287 participants were sampled in the study, of which 4 (0.2%) were excluded due to a history of heart disease and 7 (0.3%) were excluded due to insufficient plasma for screening biomarkers. The median age was 58.6 (IQR 48.2–69.7), and 52.6% were female. Figure 1 shows the distribution of cTn concentrations in age intervals. There was a significant increase in cTn with age for all assays (all p&lt;0.001). After adjusting for sex and creatinine concentration, increasing age was only significantly associated with cTnT (0.40 ng/L increase per year, p=0.03). Figure 2 panel A shows the age specific URL for each assay, where we observed a significant difference for cTnT with the URL increasing from 15.8 ng/L (90% CI 12.4–33.9 ng/L) for participants &lt;50 years to 37.6 ng/L (90% CI 34.6–41.5 ng/L) for participants &gt;70 years. The proportion of participants with concentrations above the manufacturers URL increased with age for cTnT from 1.5% in participants &lt;50 years to 25.6% for participants &gt;70 years (p&lt;0.001), figure 2 panel B. This changed little when removing participants with decreased kidney function (eGFR &lt;60 mL/min/1.73 m2) as 24.3% of the remaining participants &gt;70 years had a cTnT above the URL.

Conclusions

The concentration of cTn increased with age for all assays. This was clearest for cTnT in which the 99th percentiles of participants were significantly different for participants age &gt;70 years of whom a quarter had cTnT levels above the level for myocardial injury according to the manufacturer's URL.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): HelsefondenMauritzen La Fountaine Foundation

The Sustainable Development Goals: A Way Forward for Pakistan

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted globally in September 2015 as a set of universal and transformative goals and targets to be implemented by 2030. The 17 development goals include 169 concise, global, and applicable to all countries; developing and developed—the SDGs address three interconnected dimensions: social, economic, and environmental. Health is interconnected with social, economic, and developmental/environmental determinants. 1 The SDGs include 244 indicators related to the five Ps: People, Planet, Prosperity, Peace, and Partnership. The SDGs are more comprehensive and people-centered than the MDGs, with the commitment to & quot; leave no one behind, & quot; i.e., reach vulnerable populations. Among the SDGs, Goal 3 directs countries to & quot; Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all ages & quot;; SDG3 includes 13 targets, four of which address implementation. 2 Thirteen SDGs are related to health and well-being and may be informed by less than 169 indicators. SDG 3 addresses chronic diseases, tobacco, alcohol, narcotics use, mental health, road safety, and pollution. However, health is not solely a component of Goal 3. Throughout the majority of the SDGs, some targets have a direct or indirect effect on health gains and thus require special consideration when developing strategies, policies, and plans to achieve the health goal and monitor progress. 2,3

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementation of National Licensing Examination (NLE) and its Impact on Global Healthcare: A Systematic Review

Background: A license required for full practice - National licensing examinations (NLEs) are required in most of the countries with well-established medical regulatory authorities. Objective: This systematic review aims to investigate the impact of NLEs after their implementation worldwide. Methods: Systematic review designed as per Kane's validity framework developed by Olivary et al. by exploring online databases such as: Wiley Online, Embase Medline (EBSCO); PubMed; JSTOR; Google Scholar and Science Direct; from January 2005 to December 2020. Results: NLE exams and better patient outcomes (communication, satisfaction) are positively related and such exams help in development of a common medical curriculum and a better post-graduation entry point. Conclusions: In the present era, where more medical graduates are flying all across the globe for employment than ever before, NLE is becoming inevitable and helps to ensure that medical training satisfies a minimum standard of quality, which varies among Medical schools and colleges within a country and globally. Continual improvement is crucial for the identification of gaps in the medical licensing exams. The license holders must comply with National authorities and stay active in academic and clinical activities to stay licensed.

Impact of Refractive Errors on the Academic Performance of High School Children of Lahore

Introduction

The process of learning begins in childhood and accurate vision can greatly affects a child's learning capacity. It is documented that visual impairment in children can have a significant impact on their performance at school as well as their social interaction and development.

Objective

This research aimed to study the impact of refractive corrections on the academic performance of high school children in Lahore.

Methodology

A total of 2,000 students with equal distribution of gender, public, private school, and locality were included in the study. All students were screened for defective vision. The academic performance before and after corrections was recorded on the prescribed proforma.

Results

The prevalence of refractive error was high among the public high schools 244 (59.2%) as compared to the private schools 168 (40.8%). The area-based prevalence was higher among the students in urban settings 255 (62%) while in rural it was 157 (38%). It was found that in the public sector, the average score of academic results before the intervention was 56.39 ± 13.24 which was increased to 60.27 ± 14.94 after the intervention while in the private sector, before the intervention, the average score was 63.53 ± 17.50 which was improved to 67.12 ± 18.48. It was found to be statistically significant at p-value &lt; 0.05.

Conclusion

A significant impact was observed in the average academic scores of the results after refractive corrections.

Aspergillosis and Mucormycosis in COVID-19 Patients: A Systematic Review

Fungal infections have increased in number since the onset of this lethal pandemic. This study aimed to assess risk factors and case fatality in COVID-19 cases with aspergillosis or mucormycosis. A systematic review was done according to PRISMA guidelines. Databases used were Google scholar, Pakmedinet, PUBMED, and MEDLINE. Twenty-one case reports and case series of mucormycosis in COVID-19 patients were identified and the mean age was 56.3 years (36 men and 12 women). The most common comorbidity was diabetes and the site was rhino orbital mucormycosis. Case fatality of 48 combined cases was calculated to be 52%. Nineteen articles of aspergillosis were included. Diabetes was the most common comorbidity in cases. The number of affected men cases was more than women. The incidence of aspergillosis in critically sick COVID-19 patients was calculated to be 9.3%. Case fatality was calculated to be 51.2%. Screening can be a beneficial tool for decreasing morbidity and mortality. Key Words: COVID-19, Mucormycosis, Aspergillosis.

System within System: World Health Organization Building Blocks and Public-Private Partnership in Healthcare sector of Pakistan

"Health systems" (also called "health care systems" and "healthcare systems") are organizations that provide health care services to target populations by integrating people, institutions, and resources. A health care system is nothing more than a collection of interdependent pieces and their relationships. People, organizations, and behaviors whose primary goal is to promote, restore, or maintain health are part of a "health system." This system relies on the interdependence of its various components. Numerous components that make up a health care system, like patients, families, communities, health departments, health care professionals, and organizations responsible for funding health care are just a few examples. The duties and functions of each component are intertwined. WHO proposes supporting and building a health care system based on the following framework, the Six Health System Building Blocks? It is possible to produce more equitable and long-lasting gains in health services and outcomes by enhancing the six components of the health system and 1 managing their interrelationships .

Risk Factors Associated with Birth Asphyxia: A Case Control Study

Introduction: Birth asphyxia is a disturbance to the fetus or newborn due to failure to breath or breathing poorly, leads to decrease oxygen perfusion to various organs. Many neonatal deaths occurred each year due to birth asphyxia. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the risk factor associated with birth asphyxia. Methods: This Case-Control study was conducted at department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Sir Gangaram Hospital, Lahore. The study was completed in 9 months after approval of synopsis. A total of 154 cases and 154 controls were taken in this study. All new born baby (age < 2 days), having any mod of delivery (vaginal or cesarean section (C-section) and baby born at gestational age (28-41weeks) were included. New born with any anomaly, mother with previous history of birth asphyxia and twins were excluded from study. After taking consent form, data collection divides into three factor sections i.e.: maternal, intrapartum and neonatal sections. After taking consent form, data collection divides into three factor sections i.e.: maternal, intrapartum and neonatal sections. Data was entered and analyzed by SPSS version 24.0 Mean + SD was calculated for quantitative data. Frequency and percentage was calculated for categorical data. Chi-square test was applied for categorical data. Independent sample T-test/ Mann Whitney u test was applied. Odds ratio also be calculated. Logistic Regression was applied to confirm possible risk factors. P value ≤ 0.05 was considered as significant. Results: The mean age of mothers in cases was 29.66 ± 5.20 years and in control groups was 25.29 ± 3.95 years, the mean of mothers was statistically higher in cases than controls, p-value

Misinformation and Misconceptions About COVID-19 Vaccination in Pakistan: The Need to Control Infodemic

A unprecedented global public health and economic disaster have emerged from the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 causal agent. The World Health Organization (WHO) has labeled the outbreak a pandemic on March 11, 2020. The spread of this infectious disease has created a humanitarian and economic crisis throughout the world. Vaccination has been shown to be effective in preventing such pandemics 1. To prevent the spread of COVID-19, researchers developed COVID-19 vaccines in record time with the assistance of pharmaceutical industries. By December 2020, many candidate vaccines had demonstrated safety and efficacy in phase III trials, with efficacy rates as high as 95%. The public's acceptance of vaccination is critical to the success of any immunization program2. Public suspicion about vaccines reduces their acceptance rate. It is well known that conspiracy theories and religious beliefs are linked to vaccine hesitation. During the 2009 pandemic, studies revealed low vaccine acceptance rates (17–67%)2,3,4. Contrary to developed countries, developing countries' vaccination refusal and hesitancy is more common, as preventable diseases like polio persist5. Vaccine hesitancy is one of the top ten global health threats in 2019, according to the World Health Organization (WHO)6,7.

Longitudinal analyses of CLL in mice identify leukemia-related clonal changes including a Myc gain predicting poor outcome in patients

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a B-cell malignancy mainly occurring at an advanced age with no single major genetic driver. Transgenic expression of TCL1 in B cells leads after a long latency to a CLL-like disease in aged Eµ-TCL1 mice suggesting that TCL1 overexpression is not sufficient for full leukemic transformation. In search for secondary genetic events and to elucidate the clonal evolution of CLL, we performed whole exome and B-cell receptor sequencing of longitudinal leukemia samples of Eµ-TCL1 mice. We observed a B-cell receptor stereotypy, as described in patients, confirming that CLL is an antigen-driven disease. Deep sequencing showed that leukemia in Eµ-TCL1 mice is mostly monoclonal. Rare oligoclonality was associated with inability of tumors to develop disease upon adoptive transfer in mice. In addition, we identified clonal changes and a sequential acquisition of mutations with known relevance in CLL, which highlights the genetic similarities and therefore, suitability of the Eµ-TCL1 mouse model for progressive CLL. Among them, a recurrent gain of chromosome 15, where Myc is located, was identified in almost all tumors in Eµ-TCL1 mice. Interestingly, amplification of 8q24, the chromosomal region containing MYC in humans, was associated with worse outcome of patients with CLL.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Synthesis, characterization and biological evaluation of thiadiazole amide derivatives as nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolases (NTPDases) inhibitors

Importance of extracellular nucleotides is widely understood. These nucleotides act as ligand for P2X and P2Y receptors and modulate a variety of biological functions. However, their extracellular concentration is maintained by a chain of enzymes termed as ecto-nucleotidases. Amongst them, nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolases (NTPDases) is an important enzyme family responsible for the dephosphorylation of these nucleotides. Overexpression of NTPDases leads to many pathological conditions such as cancer and thrombosis. So far, only a few NTPDase inhibitors have been reported. Considering this scarcity of (NTPDase) inhibitors, a number of thiadiazole amide derivatives were synthesized and screened against human (h)-NTPDases. Several compounds showed promising inhibitory activity; compound 5a (IC₅₀ (µM); 0.05 ± 0.008) and 5g (IC₅₀ (µM); 0.04 ± 0.006) appeared to be the most distinguished molecules corresponding to h-NTPDase1 and -2. However, h-NTPDase3 was the least susceptible isozyme and only three compounds (5d, 5e, 5j) strongly inhibited h-NTPDase3. Interestingly, compound 5e was recognized as the most active compound that showed dual inhibition against h-NTPDase3 as well as against h-NTPDase8. For better comprehension of binding mode of these inhibitors, most potent inhibitors were docked with their respective isozyme.

Study of human knowledge and attitude toward urban birds in Faisalabad city, Pakistan

Birds are very valuable indicators of species richness and endemic patterns in a specified ecosystem, which eventually help the scientist to measure the environmental degradation. The aim of present study was to know human knowledge and attitude toward urban birds in Faisalabad city, Pakistan. The study conducted in four consecutive months: November 2019 to February 2020. Population of birds was noted from eight residential towns of Faisalabad city, data were collected through questionnaire. Faisalabad has a reasonably large population of birds and present data show that, there is a significant difference between favorite bird of residential areas and institutions. The pigeon received the most likeness in bird population among residential area residents, while the myna received the least. The most popular bird in Faisalabad institutions was the sparrow, while the least popular bird was the common myna. Bird adaptation percentage of residential areas and institutional areas of Faisalabad was the highest for parrot and sparrow respectively. People in residential areas and institutions, on the other hand, adapted least to common myna. It is concluded that people of the study area like birds and offered food and high population of birds are present in study area.

Rapid pacing is an independent predictor for high implantation depth using self-expandable devices in TAVR

Background/Introduction

Optimizing valve implantation depth (ID) plays a crucial role in minimizing conduction disturbances and achieving optimal functional integrity. Until now, the impact of intraprocedural fast (FP) or rapid ventricular pacing (RP) on the implantation depth has not been investigated.

Purpose

Therefore, we aimed to 1) evaluate the impact of different pacing maneuvers on ID, and 2) identify the independent predictors of deep ID.

Methods

562 TAVR patients with newer-generation self-expandable devices were retrospectively enrolled and further separated into patients undergoing TAVR under FP (n=331; 58.9%) and RP (n=231; 41.1%). The final ID was analyzed, and the underlying functional, anatomical, and procedural conditions were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis.

Results

The highest ID was reached under RP in severe aortic valve calcification and valve size 26 mm. Multivariate analysis identified left ventricular outflow (LVOT) calcification (OR 0.56 [0.37–0.85], p=0.006*), a bicuspid valve (OR 0.34 [0.11–1.0], p=0.049*), valve size 26 mm (OR 0.47 [0.28–0.81], p=0.006*), and RP (OR 0.57 [0.37–0.87], p=0.010*) as independent and highly preventable predictors for deep valve deployment. Independent risk factors for deep ID were the use of a 34 mm device (OR 1.96 [1.22–3.15], p=0.005*) and mild aortic valve calcification (OR 1.62 [0.01–2.61], p=0.046*). In a model of protective factors, ID was significantly reduced with the number of protective criteria (0–2 criteria: −5.6±2.6 mm vs. 3–5 criteria: −4.5±2.0 mm; p&lt;0.0001*).

Conclusion

Data from this retrospective analysis indicate that RP is an independent predictor to reach a higher implantation depth using self-expandable devices.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Electrocardiographic predictors of recovery from pacemaker dependency after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a meta-analysis

Background

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a well-established alternative to surgery for the treatment of patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis at high and intermediate surgical risk. The occurrence of electrical conduction disturbances with the need for permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation remains one of the most frequent complications of the procedure. But PPM dependency after TAVI is often transient and conduction abnormalities may improve over time.

Purpose

We performed a meta-analysis to summarize available studies that reported the incidence of new PPM after TAVI and investigated the rate and possible predictors of recovery from PPM dependency during follow-up.

Methods

The authors conducted a literature search in PubMed and MEDLINE databases from January of 2012 until February of 2021. Eleven observational studies (n=6794) met inclusion criteria for the final analysis. The effect size was estimated using a random-effects model with 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

PPM implantation was performed in 902 patients after TAVI (13.3%), mostly due to high degree atrioventricular (AV) block (81.3%). A follow-up of 683 patients was performed after a median period of 139 days. 322 of the patients examined during follow-up (48.6%) showed recovery from PPM dependency. Regarding secondary endpoints' analysis of relative risk (RR) and mean difference (MD) predictors of PPM recovery during follow-up were female sex (RR 1.37; 95% CI 1.10–1.71; p=0.006), preexisting coronary artery disease (RR 1.12; 95% CI 0.99–1.27; p=0.08) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (MD −2.08%; 95% CI 0.23–3.93%; p=0.03). ECG predictors for long-term PPM dependency after TAVI appeared to be preexisting right bundle branch block (RBBB) (RR 1.84; 95% CI 1.38–2.45; p&lt;0.0001), bifascicular block (RR 4.41; 95% CI 1.64–11.86; p=0.003) and prolonged QRS duration (MD 8.69 ms; 95% CI 0.11–17.28 ms; p=0.05). While postprocedural complete heart block was highly predictive for long-term PPM dependency after TAVI (RR 1.35; 95% CI 0.97–1.89; p&lt;0.0001), patients with recovery of PPM dependency showed more indications other than complete heart block for PPM implantation like lower degree AV block or sick sinus syndrome (RR 2.28; 95% CI 1.53–3.38; p&lt;0.0001). Especially postprocedural AV block grade I (RR 1.73; 95% CI 0.96–3.14; p=0.07) and new left bundle branch block (LBBB) (RR 1.94; 95% CI 1.22–3.08; p=0.005) turned out to be predictors of PPM recovery during follow-up.

Conclusion

This structured meta-analysis proved new PPM implantation in 13.3% of patients following TAVI with half of the cases (48.6%) recovering from PPM dependency during follow-up. Therefore, it should be considered to carefully reassess the indication for PPM rather than to immediately implant PPM after TAVI, especially regarding postprocedural ECG predictors for early pacemaker recovery (lower degree AV block, postprocedural LBBB).

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparative analysis of various sources of selenium on the growth performance and antioxidant status in broilers under heat stress

The supplementation of Selenium-enriched probiotics is effective in reducing oxidative stress and maintaining meat quality stability in broiler chicken especially under heat stress. An experimental study was conducted to perform Comparative analysis of Selenium yeast with inorganic Se in broilers under heat stress. A total of 120 broilers chicks of one day were assigned to 4 groups each consisting 30 chicks fed on same basal diet but different selenium sources. The basal diet of group D1 was not supplemented with Se source (Negative control), group D2 basal diet was supplemented with inorganic selenium (Sodium selenite 0.22mg/Kg starter phase and 0.15mg/Kg finisher phase), group D3 basal diet was supplemented with commercially available organic selenium (Seleno-methionine 0.22mg/Kg starter phase and 0.15mg/Kg finisher phase) and group D4 basal diet was supplemented with self-developed organic selenium (Se-enriched yeast 0.22mg/Kg starter phase and 0.15mg/Kg finisher phase). The performance parameters i.e. feed intake (FI), live body weight (BW) and FCR were not significantly (p>0.05) effected by selenium supplementation in the starter phase but were significantly (p<0.05) effected in the finisher phase. Selenium supplementation significantly (p<0.05) effected serum Se level in different supplemented groups. Higher serum Se value (58.20±0.06) was recorded in D4 group. Similarly significantly lower selenium value was recorded for D4 and higher was recorded for D1 (11.36±0.08). However lower serum Paraoxonase (PON) value was recorded for D4 (13.24±0.01) and higher for D1 (13.33±0.03). Comparatively self-developed Se enriched yeast increased the Se accumulation and improved antioxidant system. Glutathione peroxidase (GPx) was found higher in D4 (12.333±0.03) followed by D3, D2 and D1 respectively. Whereas superoxide dismutase (SOD) was significantly lower (p<0.05) in D4 (0.1437±0.003) followed by D3 (0.1457±0.002). Selenium supplementation increased the bird's survival rate. Birds fed on Se enriched yeast showed higher Se deposition and better antioxidant capacity as compared to other sources of selenium. Se-enriched yeast displayed an improved result on Se deposition in tissues, and oxidative capacity, meat tenderness and immune response level as compared to other sources of selenium.

Divergent synthesis and elaboration of structure activity relationship for quinoline derivatives as highly selective NTPDase inhibitor

Quinoline derivatives have interesting biological profile. In continuation for the comprehensive evaluations of substituted quinoline derivatives against human nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolases (h-NTPDases) a series of substituted quinoline derivatives (2a-g, 3a-f, 4, 5a-c, 6) was synthesized. The inhibitory activities of the synthesized compounds were evaluated against four isoenzymes of human nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolases (h-NTPDases). These quinoline derivatives had IC₅₀ (µM) values in the range of 0.20-1.75, 0.77-2.20, 0.36-5.50 and 0.90-1.82 for NTPDase1, NTPDase2, NTPDase3 and NTPDase8, respectively. The derivative 3f was the most active compound against NTPDase1 (IC₅₀, 0.20 ± 0.02 µM) that also possessed selectivity towards NTPDase1. Similarly, derivative 3b (IC₅₀, 0.77 ± 0.06), 2h (IC₅₀, 0.36 ± 0.01) and 2c (IC₅₀, 0.90 ± 0.08) displayed excellent activity corresponding to NTPDase2, NTPDase3 and NTPdase8. The compound 5c emerged as a selective inhibitor of NTPDase8. The most active compounds were then investigated to determine their mode of inhibition and finally binding interactions of the active compounds were analyzed through molecular docking studies. The obtained results strongly support the quinoline scaffold's potential as potent and selective NTPDase inhibitor.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.