Evaluation of Ki-67, goblet cell and MUC2 mucin RNA expression in dogs with lymphoplasmacytic and granulomatous colitis

Intestinal mucus barrier disruption may occur with chronic inflammatory enteropathies. The lack of studies evaluating mucus health in dogs with chronic colitis arises from inherent challenges with assessment of the intestinal mucus layer. It is therefore unknown if reduced goblet cell (GBC) numbers and/or mucin 2 (MUC2) expression, which are responsible for mucus production and secretion, correlate with inflammation severity in dogs with granulomatous colitis (GC) or lymphocytic-plasmacytic colitis (LPC). It is undetermined if Ki-67 immunoreactivity, which has been evaluated in dogs with small intestinal inflammation, similarly correlates to histologic severity in GC and LPC. Study objectives included comparing Ki-67 immunoreactivity, GBC population and MUC2 expression in dogs with GC, LPC and non-inflamed colon; and exploring the use of ribonucleic acid (RNAscope®) in-situ hybridization (ISH) to evaluate MUC2 expression in canine colon. Formalin-fixed endoscopic colonic biopsies were obtained from 48 dogs over an eight-year period. A blinded pathologist reviewed all biopsies. Dogs were classified into the GC (n=19), LPC (n=19) or no colitis (NC) (n=10) group based on final histopathological diagnosis. Ki-67 immunohistochemistry, Alcian-Blue/PAS staining to highlight GBCs, and RNAscope® ISH using customized canine MUC2-targeted probes were performed. At least five microscopic fields per dog were selected to measure Ki-67 labelling index (KI67%), GBC staining percentage (GBC%) and MUC2 expression (MUC2%) using image analysis software. Spearman's correlation coefficients were used to determine associations between World Small Animal Veterinary Association histologic score (WHS) and measured variables. Linear regression models were used to compare relationships between WHS with KI67%, GBC%, and MUC2%; and between GBC% and MUC2%. Median WHS was highest in dogs with GC. Median KI67% normalised to WHS was highest in the NC group (6.69%; range, 1.70-23.60%). Median GBC% did not correlate with colonic inflammation overall. Median MUC2% normalised to WHS in the NC group (10.02%; range, 3.05-39.09%) was two- and three-fold higher than in the GC and LPC groups respectively. With increased colonic inflammation, despite minimal changes in GBC% overall, MUC2 expression markedly declined in the LPC group (-27.4%; 95%-CI, -49.8, 5.9%) and mildly declined in the GC and NC groups. Granulomatous colitis and LPC likely involve different pathways regulating MUC2 expression. Decreased MUC2 gene expression is observed in dogs with chronic colitis compared to dogs without colonic signs. Changes in MUC2 expression appear influenced by GBC activity rather than quantity in GC and LPC.

Exposure to Persistent Organic Pollutants in Australian Waterbirds

There is growing worldwide recognition of the threat posed by persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to wildlife populations. We aimed to measure exposure levels to POPs in a Southern Hemisphere aquatic waterbird species, the nomadic gray teal (Anas gracilis), which is found across Australia. We collected wings from 39 ducks harvested by recreational hunters at two sites (one coastal, one inland) in Victoria, southeastern Australia, in 2021. We examined three groups of POPs: nine congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 13 organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), and 12 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The PCBs, OCPs, and PAHs were detected at quantifiable levels in 13%, 72%, and 100% of birds, respectively. Of the congeners we tested for in PCBs, OCPs, and PAHs, 33%, 38%, and 100% were detected at quantifiable levels, respectively. The highest levels of exposure to POPs that we found were to the PAH benzo[b]fluoranthene, occurring at a concentration range of 1.78 to 161.05 ng/g wet weight. There were some trends detected relating to differences between geographical sites, with higher levels of several PAHs at the coastal versus inland site. There were several strong, positive associations among PAHs found. We discuss potential sources for the POPs detected, including industrial and agricultural sources, and the likely role of large-scale forest fires in PAH levels. Our results confirm that while Australian waterbirds are exposed to a variety of POPs, exposure levels are currently relatively low. Additional future investigations are required to further characterize POPs within Australian waterbird species. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:736-747. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average β = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

Scenario tree modelling to inform surveillance design for maintaining freedom from Coxiella burnetii infection in Australian commercial dairy goat herds

We used scenario tree methods to determine how different disease detection methods might be used to provide quantitative evidence that Australian dairy goat herds are free of coxiellosis. The aim of our proposed C. burnetii surveillance programme is to find evidence of the absence of antigen as well as evidence of an absence of an immune response to C. burnetii infection in individual dairy goat herds. We defined a C. burnetii infected dairy goat herd as a herd in which at least one doe was showing evidence of either active infection or past C. burnetii exposure using four candidate surveillance system components (SSCs): (1) testing of individual doe whole blood using the C. burnetii com1 PCR; (2) testing of individual doe whole blood using the C. burnetii ELISA; (3) testing bulk tank milk (BTM) using the com1 PCR and the C. burnetii ELISA; and (4) investigations of abortions and stillborn kids submitted to a diagnostic laboratory for testing. Of eight candidate surveillance strategies (combinations of the SSCs listed above) individual doe ELISAs every six months combined with monthly BTM PCR and ELISA testing returned the highest surveillance system sensitivity of 0.963 (95% probability interval [PI] 0.911-0.982) for the lowest cost, at AUD 28.94 (95% PI 28.38-30.59) over a 12-month period, for every one percent increase in surveillance system sensitivity. Assuming a probability of disease freedom of 0.10 at the start of the surveillance program and a probability of C. burnetii introduction per month of 0.01 we estimate that 95% confidence that C. burnetii was absent from a herd could be achieved after a single round of individual doe ELISAs followed by period of 6 consecutive monthly BTM PCR and ELISA tests. The results of this study show that selection of the most efficient combination of surveillance system components requires a good understanding of initial herd C. burnetii status and the probability of introduction of infection and how this may change over time. Scenario tree analyses results have provided insight into the key determinants of C. burnetii detection ability.

Shrimp MultiPath™ multiplexed PCR white spot syndrome virus detection in penaeid shrimp

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV), which causes white spot disease, is one of the notoriously feared infectious agents in the shrimp industry, inflicting estimated production losses world-wide of up to US$1 billion annually. Cost-effective accessible surveillance testing and targeted diagnosis are key to alerting shrimp industries and authorities worldwide early about WSSV carrier status in targeted shrimp populations. Here we present key validation pathway metrics for the Shrimp MultiPathTM (SMP) WSSV assay as part of the multi-pathogen detection platform. With superior throughput, fast turn-around time, and extremely low cost per test, the SMP WSSV assay achieves a high level of analytical sensitivity (~2.9 copies), perfect analytical specificity (~100%), and good intra- and inter-run repeatability (coefficient of variation <5%). The diagnostic metrics were estimated using Bayesian latent class analysis on data from 3 experimental shrimp populations from Latin America with distinct WSSV prevalence and yielded a diagnostic sensitivity of 95% and diagnostic specificity of 99% for SMP WSSV, which was higher than these parameters for the TaqMan quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays currently recommended by the World Organisation for Animal Health and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. This paper additionally presents compelling data for the use of synthetic double-stranded DNA analyte spiked into pathogen-naïve shrimp tissue homogenate as a means to substitute clinical samples for assay validation pathways targeting rare pathogens. SMP WSSV shows analytical and diagnostic metrics comparable to qPCR-based assays and demonstrates fit-for-purpose performance for detection of WSSV in clinically diseased and apparently healthy animals.

A repeatable CT protocol for quantifying caudal vena cava growth in medium and large breed dogs

Developmental malformations can cause stunted or abnormal growth and clinical disease in dogs. In humans, measurements of the inferior vena cava are used as methods for detecting abnormal growth trajectories. The objectives of this retrospective, multicenter, analytical, cross-sectional study were to develop a repeatable protocol to measure the caudal vena cava (CVC) and generate growth curves in medium and large-breed dogs during development. Contrast-enhanced CT DICOM images from 438 normal dogs, aged from 1 to 18 months, from five specific breeds were included. A "best guess" measurement protocol was created. Dogs were stratified into medium or large breed groups based on growth rate trajectories. Linear regression models and logarithmic trend lines were used to evaluate the CVC growth over time. The CVC measurements were analyzed from four anatomical regions: thorax, diaphragm, intra-hepatic, and renal. The thoracic segment produced the most repeatable measurements with the highest explanatory power. The CVC thoracic circumference ranged from 2.5 to 4.9 cm from 1 to 18 months of age. Medium and large breeds had similar CVC growth trajectories, with comparable estimated marginal means, however medium dogs reached 80% of predicted final CVC size approximately 4 weeks earlier than large breed dogs. This new protocol provides a standardized technique for evaluation of the CVC circumference over time using contrast-enhanced CT and is most repeatable when taken at the thoracic level. This approach could be adapted for other vessels to predict their growth trajectories, generating healthy reference population data for comparison against patients with vascular anomalies.

Lead contamination in Australian game meat

Lead-based ammunition (gunshot and bullets) frequently leaves small lead fragments embedded in the meat of wild-shot game animals. Australia produces several commercial game meat products from wild animals harvested with lead-based ammunition and has a growing population of recreational hunters. However, no studies have previously investigated the frequency of lead fragments or lead concentrations in Australian game meat. We examined 133 Australian minced game meat items of four types for evidence of lead contamination. Samples were meat from kangaroos (Macropus and Osphranter spp.; n=36) and Bennett's wallabies (Notamacropus rufogriseus; n=28) sold for human consumption, and deer ('venison'; multiple spp.; n=32) and stubble quail (Coturnix pectoralis; n=37) harvested for private consumption by recreational hunters. All packages were studied by digital radiography to detect the presence of radio-dense fragments, assumed to be lead fragments from ammunition. Visible fragments were absent in commercially available kangaroo products, but were present in 4%, 28% and 35% of wallaby, venison and quail, respectively. Mean meat lead concentrations (mg/kg wet weight) were 0.01 ± 0.01 for kangaroo, 0.02 ± 0.01 for wallaby, 0.12 ± 0.07 for venison, and 1.76 ± 3.76 for quail. The Australian food standards threshold for livestock meat (0.1 mg/kg w.w.) was not exceeded by any kangaroo or wallaby products but was exceeded by 53% and 86% of venison and quail, respectively. Radiography only detected 35% of samples that were above the food safety threshold. While average lead concentrations in commercially available macropod (kangaroo and wallaby) meat were low, those in recreationally harvested game meat may pose health risks for hunters and associated consumers.

Seroprevalence of Coxiella burnetii antibodies in wild deer populations in eastern Australia

Coxiella burnetii causes significant reproduction losses in livestock and the disease Q fever in humans. Transmission of C. burnetii is facilitated by the stability of the bacterium in the environment and the susceptibility of a variety of host species to infection. Consequently, inter-species transmission occurs frequently through either direct or indirect contact. Wildlife may represent reservoirs of C. burnetii and could therefore be a source of infection for domestic animals. Understanding the prevalence of C. burnetii infections at the wildlife-livestock interface is important for disease control. This study aimed to investigate the extent of C. burnetii exposure in wild deer in eastern Australia. Serum samples were obtained from 413 wild deer from seven regions in four eastern Australian states from 2017 to 2020. Antibodies were detected using a commercial Q fever antibody kit validated for ruminants. Seroprevalence of C. burnetii antibodies in deer was determined and true prevalence estimated, for each region. The overall seroprevalence of C. burnetii antibodies in wild deer was 3.4% (14 seropositive of 413 deer sampled) with true prevalence estimated to be 4.3% (95% credible interval: 0.6%, 10.9%). Seropositive deer were identified only in Queensland (7/108 seropositive) and northern New South Wales (7/120 seropositive). This geospatial distribution is consistent with seropositivity in other animal species and indicative of the level of C. burnetii in the environment. The low seroprevalence suggests that wild deer are unlikely to be a major reservoir species for C. burnetii in eastern Australia but may still be implicated in inter-species transmission cycles.

Estimation of a Within-Herd Transmission Rate for African Swine Fever in Vietnam

We describe results from a panel study in which pigs from a 17-sow African swine fever (ASF) positive herd in Thái Bình province, Vietnam, were followed over time to record the date of onset of ASF signs and the date of death from ASF. Our objectives were to (1) fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed disease model to the data with transmission coefficients estimated using approximate Bayesian computation; (2) provide commentary on how a model of this type might be used to provide decision support for disease control authorities. For the outbreak in this herd, the median of the average latent period was 10 days (95% HPD (highest posterior density interval): 2 to 19 days), and the median of the average duration of infectiousness was 3 days (95% HPD: 2 to 4 days). The estimated median for the transmission coefficient was 3.3 (95% HPD: 0.4 to 8.9) infectious contacts per ASF-infectious pig per day. The estimated median for the basic reproductive number, R₀, was 10 (95% HPD: 1.1 to 30). Our estimates of the basic reproductive number R₀ were greater than estimates of R₀ for ASF reported previously. The results presented in this study may be used to estimate the number of pigs expected to be showing clinical signs at a given number of days following an estimated incursion date. This will allow sample size calculations, with or without adjustment to account for less than perfect sensitivity of clinical examination, to be used to determine the appropriate number of pigs to examine to detect at least one with the disease. A second use of the results of this study would be to inform the equation-based within-herd spread components of stochastic agent-based and hybrid simulation models of ASF.

Field epidemiology capacity of the national veterinary services of Lao PDR: An online survey

Introduction

Capacity in veterinary epidemiology is critical to detect, respond and control infectious diseases. Laos veterinary service is limited by having only a small number of veterinarians who graduated from overseas. Animal science graduates support the majority of the Laos veterinary services. The veterinary program was established in 2009 at the National University of Laos. We aimed to understand the national veterinary epidemiology capacity and identify gaps and training needs.

Method

A cross-sectional online study was conducted in 2021 targeting central (DLF), provincial (PAFO) and district (DAFO) government animal health officers and veterinary/animal science academics (n = 332). The questionnaire addressed skills, experiences and perceived training needs in outbreak investigation, disease surveillance, data management and analysis, epidemiological surveys, One Health, leadership and communication and biosecurity. A descriptive analysis was performed and associations between demographic factors and epidemiological skills were examined.

Results and discussion

In total, 205 respondents completed the questionnaire (61.8% response rate). Respondents reported low or no skills and experience in data management and analysis, epidemiological surveys and One Health. In contrast, higher but limited skills and experiences were reported in outbreak investigation, disease surveillance and biosecurity. Previous epidemiology training was primarily associated with stronger experiences in veterinary epidemiology competencies, followed by respondents that had completed a veterinary degree, highlighting the value of the currently available epidemiology training and veterinary-trained personnel in Lao PDR. This study could help inform the Laos government in its policy planning for field veterinary epidemiology capacity and future training.

Risk factors for campylobacteriosis in Australia: outcomes of a 2018-2019 case-control study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to identify risk factors for sporadic campylobacteriosis in Australia, and to compare these for Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli infections.

METHODS

In a multi-jurisdictional case-control study, we recruited culture-confirmed cases of campylobacteriosis reported to state and territory health departments from February 2018 through October 2019. We recruited controls from notified influenza cases in the previous 12 months that were frequency matched to cases by age group, sex, and location. Campylobacter isolates were confirmed to species level by public health laboratories using molecular methods. We conducted backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression to identify significant risk factors.

RESULTS

We recruited 571 cases of campylobacteriosis (422 C. jejuni and 84 C. coli) and 586 controls. Important risk factors for campylobacteriosis included eating undercooked chicken (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 70, 95% CI 13-1296) or cooked chicken (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.8), owning a pet dog aged < 6 months (aOR 6.4, 95% CI 3.4-12), and the regular use of proton-pump inhibitors in the 4 weeks prior to illness (aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.9-4.3). Risk factors remained similar when analysed specifically for C. jejuni infection. Unique risks for C. coli infection included eating chicken pâté (aOR 6.1, 95% CI 1.5-25) and delicatessen meats (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0-3.3). Eating any chicken carried a high population attributable fraction for campylobacteriosis of 42% (95% CI 13-68), while the attributable fraction for proton-pump inhibitors was 13% (95% CI 8.3-18) and owning a pet dog aged < 6 months was 9.6% (95% CI 6.5-13). The population attributable fractions for these variables were similar when analysed by campylobacter species. Eating delicatessen meats was attributed to 31% (95% CI 0.0-54) of cases for C. coli and eating chicken pâté was attributed to 6.0% (95% CI 0.0-11).

CONCLUSIONS

The main risk factor for campylobacteriosis in Australia is consumption of chicken meat. However, contact with young pet dogs may also be an important source of infection. Proton-pump inhibitors are likely to increase vulnerability to infection.

Bayesian latent class analysis to estimate the optimal cut-off for the MilA ELISA for the detection of Mycoplasma bovis antibodies in sera, accounting for repeated measures

The MilA ELISA has been identified as a highly effective diagnostic tool for the detection of Mycoplasma bovis specific antibodies and has been validated for serological use in previous studies. This study aimed to estimate the optimal cut-off and corresponding estimates of diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and diagnostic specificity (DSp) of the MilA ELISA for testing bovine serum. Serum samples from 298 feedlot cattle from 14 feedlots across four Australian states were tested on entry into the feedlot and approximately 42 days later. The paired serum samples were tested with the MilA ELISA, BIO K302 (Bio-X Diagnostics, Belgium) and BIO K260 (Bio-X Diagnostics, Belgium). A cut-off of 135 AU was estimated to be optimal using Bayesian latent class analysis with three tests in multiple populations, accounting for conditional dependence between tests. At this cut-off, the DSe and DSp of the MilA ELISA were estimated to be 92.1 % (95 % highest probability density [HPD] interval: 87.4, 95.8) and 95.5 % (95 % HPD: 92.4, 97.8), respectively. The DSes of the BIO K260 and BIO K302 ELISAs were estimated to be 60.5 % (95 % HPD: 54.0, 66.9) and 44.6 % (95 % HPD: 38.7, 50.7), respectively. DSps were 95.6 % (95 % HPD: 92.9, 97.7) and 97.8 % (95 % HPD: 95.9, 99.0), respectively. Mycoplasma bovis seroprevalence was remarkably high at follow-up after 42 days on the feedlots. Overall, this study estimated a cut-off, DSe and DSp for the MilA ELISA with less dependence on prior information than previous analyses and demonstrated that the MilA ELISA has higher DSe than the BIO K260 and BIO K302 assays.

A cross-sectional survey of risk factors for the presence of Coxiella burnetii in Australian commercial dairy goat farms

The largest Australian farm‐based outbreak of Q fever originated from a dairy goat herd. We surveyed commercial dairy goat farms across Australia by testing bulk tank milk (BTM) samples using a commercial indirect enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay and two quantitative polymerase chain reactions (PCRs). Of the 66 commercial dairy goat herds on record, managers from 61 herds were contacted and 49 provided BTM samples. Five of the surveyed herds were positive on at least one of the diagnostic tests, thus herd‐level apparent prevalence was 10% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4 to 22). True prevalence was estimated to be 3% (95% credible interval: 0 to 18). Herd managers completed a questionnaire on herd management, biosecurity and hygiene practices and risk factors were investigated using multivariable logistic regression. Herds with >900 milking does (the upper quartile) were more likely to be Coxiella burnetii positive (odds ratio = 6.75; 95% CI 1.65 to 27.7) compared with farms with ≤900 milking does. The odds of BTM positivity increased by a factor of 2.53 (95% CI 1.51 to 4.22) for each order of magnitude increase in the number of goats per acre. C. burnetii was not detected in samples from the majority of the Australian dairy goat herds suggesting there is an opportunity to protect the industry and contain this disease with strengthened biosecurity practices. Intensification appeared associated with an increased risk of positivity. Further investigation is required to discriminate the practices associated with an increased risk of introduction to disease‐free herds, from practices associated with maintenance of C. burnetii infection in infected dairy goat herds.

Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei real-time and Shrimp MultiPathTM PCR assay validation for South-East Asian and Latin American strains of Penaeid shrimp

Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) infections are a global challenge for the Penaeid shrimp industry with a sharp rise in prevalence over the last 10 yr. EHP is known to cause sub-optimal growth, large size variation and reduced survival of shrimp. Molecular methods development has mainly focussed on 18S rRNA or spore wall protein 1 (SWP1). Due to the specificity and sensitivity issues with previously designed assays for both targets, new molecular assays are needed by the global shrimp industry and regulators to help manage the risks posed by EHP. This paper describes new real-time PCR (qPCR) methods developed for the novel EHP gene targets polar tube protein 2 (PTP2) and spore wall protein 26 (SWP26), whilst also presenting performance metrics of the new Shrimp MultiPathTM technology EHP assay. qPCR assays PTP2G and SWP26G show high amplification efficiency, a limit of detection (LOD) of between 1 and 4 copies, low assay variation and high diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) compared to imperfect reference assays. Similar performance is seen with Shrimp MultiPathTM EHP showing an LOD of 8 copies, low assay variation and high DSe and DSp. These novel molecular targets for EHP and Shrimp MultiPathTM EHP strengthen global efforts to monitor and mitigate risks of EHP infections and outbreaks. Moreover, this study presents novel data on distribution of EHP in shrimp populations from South-East Asia and Latin America, and how sequence variations need to be considered when monitoring EHP in different geographies.

Factors associated with racing performance and career duration for Victorian-born Thoroughbreds

The number of horses leaving the Australian Thoroughbred (TB) racing industry each year is of concern to animal welfare advocates, public and regulators. A horse's previous athletic performance is a significant driver of retirement from racing. Racehorse performance can be measured in terms of the total number of starts, duration of racing and prize money earned. This study investigated Australian racing records for the 2005 and 2010 Victorian TB foal crops to identify factors associated with total number of starts, racing career duration, prize money earned and age of last race start-up to the 10-year-old racing season. Racing Australia registered 4,577 TB horses born in Victoria in 2005 (n = 2,506) and 2010 (n = 2,071) that raced in Australia. Horses that started racing at 2-years of age had fewer race starts in their first racing season but an increased total number of starts, prize money and duration of racing. The median age of last start (LS) was five (Q1 4; Q3 7) years. Horses that had won a race, had a maximum handicap rating of 61 or above and those racing over distances of more than 2,400 m had an increased racing career duration and an age of last race start greater than 6-years of age. Horses participating in jumps races (n = 63) had the longest careers and older age of LS. These horses were more likely to have had a handicap rating over 80 and were just as likely to start their racing careers as 2-years-olds.

Participation of Victorian Thoroughbreds in the racing industry: a whole-of-population benchmark

The proportion of Thoroughbred (TB) horses that commence training and eventually race, is an important industry-level indicator of how successful it is at producing horses suitable for racing. It is also of interest to the wider community and is central to the issue of whether there is overbreeding in the Australian TB industry. This study investigated the training and racing records for the 2005 and 2010 Victorian TB foal crops to determine the proportion of TBs that train and race, and the age of entering training and first race start. Subsets of the foal crop were also examined to determine if premier yearling sale cohorts would produce selection bias. The Australian Stud Book (ASB) registered 7662 TB horses born in Victoria in 2005 (n = 4116) and 2010 (n = 3546). Of these, 5614 (73%) entered training and 4868 (64%) started in at least one race. Fourteen percent (n = 1045) of the study cohort had their first race start as 2-year-olds and 35% (n = 2644) had their first start as 3-year-olds. A higher proportion of TB horses that attended premier yearling sales entered training (93%) and raced (84%). This study established a baseline for training and racing milestones, such as the proportion and age that horses commenced training, and age of first start using population-level data. It also established that the use of subsets of the population can introduce selection bias.

Introduction - Validation of tests for OIE-listed diseases as fit-for-purpose in a world of evolving diagnostic technologies

The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has made leading contributions to the discipline of test validation science by providing standards and guidelines that inform the test validation process in terrestrial and aquatic animals. The OIE Manual of Diagnostic Tests and Vaccines for Terrestrial Animals, and the Manual of Diagnostic Tests for Aquatic Animals describe the test validation pathway in the context of fitness for purpose, elaborate on the importance of diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and specificity (DSp) as measures of test accuracy, and designate additional factors (e.g. test cost, laboratory throughput capacity and rapidity of test results) that influence choices of a single test over others or the inclusion of a new test in a diagnostic process that includes multiple tests. This paper provides examples of each of the six main testing purposes listed in the Terrestrial Manual and describes additional metrics such as ruggedness and robustness that should be included in the validation of point-of-care tests. Challenges associated with new diagnostic technologies and platforms are described. Validated tests with estimates of DSe and DSp are needed to measure confidence in test results for OIE-listed diseases, to facilitate risk assessments related to animal movement, to estimate true prevalence, and for certification of disease freedom and use in epidemiological (risk factor) studies.

Bayesian latent class analysis when the reference test is imperfect

Latent class analysis (LCA) has allowed epidemiologists to overcome the practical constraints faced by traditional diagnostic test evaluation methods, which require both a gold standard diagnostic test and ample numbers of appropriate reference samples. Over the past four decades, LCA methods have expanded to allow epidemiologists to evaluate diagnostic tests and estimate true prevalence using imperfect tests over a variety of complex data structures and scenarios, including during the emergence of novel infectious diseases. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of recent developments in LCA methods, as well as a practical guide to applying Bayesian LCA (BLCA) to the evaluation of diagnostic tests. Before conducting a BLCA, the suitability of BLCA for the pathogen of interest, the availability of appropriate samples, the number of diagnostic tests, and the structure of the data should be carefully considered. While formulating the model, the model's structure and specification of informative priors will affect the likelihood that useful inferences can be drawn. With the growing need for advanced analytical methods to evaluate diagnostic tests for newly emerging diseases, LCA is a promising field of research for both the veterinary and medical disciplines.

A randomised controlled trial of the immunogenicity and safety of a formaldehyde-inactivated Coxiella burnetii vaccine in 8-week-old goats

Coxiella burnetii causes Q fever in individuals exposed to infected ruminants. Vaccination in 3-4-month-old goats, has been reported to result in significantly greater reduction in C. burnetii shedding compared to goats vaccinated one month before breeding, the most commonly used strategy of controlling Q fever on infected intensively-managed herds. It is possible that an even greater reduction in the number of animals shedding C. burnetii could be achieved if vaccination were administered shortly after protection from colostrum antibodies wanes and animals become susceptible to infection with C. burnetii. This study aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of a formaldehyde-inactivated phase 1 C. burnetii vaccine in 8-week-old goats. Two injections, four weeks apart, elicited specific IgM and IgG responses in all vaccinated goats (n = 6), while no antibodies were detected in two control groups (n = 12). Swelling at the site of inoculation was observed in all the vaccinated and in 10/11 of the placebo-treated goats but receded after 3 weeks. Weight change and rectal temperatures were also comparable between vaccinated and control goats. The data indicated that this vaccine could be suitable for immunising 8-week-old goats, although further trials to determine level of protection against challenge are required.

Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables

BACKGROUND

Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model's ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance.

Prevalence and spatial distribution of Coxiella burnetii seropositivity in northern Australian beef cattle adjusted for diagnostic test uncertainty

Q fever is a zoonotic disease caused by infection with Coxiella burnetii transmitted from animals including, but not limited to, cattle, sheep and goats. The infection in cattle is typically sub-clinical with some evidence suggesting associated reproductive loss. There is currently limited data on the true prevalence and distribution of coxiellosis in beef cattle across northern Australia. During this study, 2,012 sera samples from beef cattle managed on commercial farms located in Queensland and the Northern Territory were tested using an indirect immunofluorescent assay (IFA) for serological evidence of IgG antibodies against C. burnetii. Bayesian latent class models were used to estimate the true prevalence, adjusted for diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity and incorporating the hierarchical structure of the cattle within farms and regions. In this study, cattle in the Northern Territory had lower estimated true prevalence than cattle within most regions of Queensland with the exception of south-east Queensland. Results from this study have described the geographic distribution and estimated the true prevalence of antibodies to C. burnetii in a sample of extensively managed beef cattle located across the tropical grazing regions of northern Australia.

Unravelling animal exposure profiles of human Q fever cases in Queensland, Australia, using natural language processing

Q fever, caused by the zoonotic bacterium Coxiella burnetii, is a globally distributed emerging infectious disease. Livestock are the most important zoonotic transmission sources, yet infection in people without livestock exposure is common. Identifying potential exposure pathways is necessary to design effective interventions and aid outbreak prevention. We used natural language processing and graphical network methods to provide insights into how Q fever notifications are associated with variation in patient occupations or lifestyles. Using an 18-year time-series of Q fever notifications in Queensland, Australia, we used topic models to test whether compositions of patient answers to follow-up exposure questionnaires varied between demographic groups or across geographical areas. To determine heterogeneity in possible zoonotic exposures, we explored patterns of livestock and game animal co-exposures using Markov Random Fields models. Finally, to identify possible correlates of Q fever case severity, we modelled patient probabilities of being hospitalized as a function of particular exposures. Different demographic groups consistently reported distinct sets of exposure terms and were concentrated in different areas of the state, suggesting the presence of multiple transmission pathways. Macropod exposure was commonly reported among Q fever cases, even when exposure to cattle, sheep or goats was absent. Males, older patients and those that reported macropod exposure were more likely to be hospitalized due to Q fever infection. Our study indicates that follow-up surveillance combined with text modelling is useful for unravelling exposure pathways in the battle to reduce Q fever incidence and associated morbidity.

Serological evidence for the presence of wobbly possum disease virus in Australia

Wobbly possum disease virus (WPDV) is an arterivirus that was originally identified in common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, where it causes severe neurological disease. In this study, serum samples (n = 188) from Australian common brushtail, mountain brushtail (Trichosurus cunninghami) and common ringtail (Pseudocheirus peregrinus) possums were tested for antibodies to WPDV using ELISA. Antibodies to WPDV were detected in possums from all three species that were sampled in the states of Victoria and South Australia. Overall, 16% (30/188; 95% CI 11.0-22.0) of possums were seropositive for WPDV and 11.7% (22/188; 95% CI 7.5-17.2) were equivocal. The frequency of WPDV antibody detection was the highest in possums from the two brushtail species. This is the first reported serological evidence of infection with WPDV, or an antigenically similar virus, in Australian possums, and the first study to find antibodies in species other than common brushtail possums. Attempts to detect viral RNA in spleens by PCR were unsuccessful. Further research is needed to characterise the virus in Australian possums and to determine its impact on the ecology of Australian marsupials.

Transmission network reconstruction for foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks incorporating farm-level covariates

Transmission network modelling to infer ‘who infected whom’ in infectious disease outbreaks is a highly active area of research. Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease have been a key focus of transmission network models that integrate genomic and epidemiological data. The aim of this study was to extend Lau’s systematic Bayesian inference framework to incorporate additional parameters representing predominant species and numbers of animals held on a farm. Lau’s Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was reformulated, verified and pseudo-validated on 100 simulated outbreaks populated with demographic data Japan and Australia. The modified model was then implemented on genomic and epidemiological data from the 2010 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan, and outputs compared to those from the SCOTTI model implemented in BEAST2. The modified model achieved improvements in overall accuracy when tested on the simulated outbreaks. When implemented on the actual outbreak data from Japan, infected farms that held predominantly pigs were estimated to have five times the transmissibility of infected cattle farms and be 49% less susceptible. The farm-level incubation period was 1 day shorter than the latent period, the timing of the seeding of the outbreak in Japan was inferred, as were key linkages between clusters and features of farms involved in widespread dissemination of this outbreak. To improve accessibility the modified model has been implemented as the R package ‘BORIS’ for use in future outbreaks.

Comparison of the modified agglutination test and real-time PCR for detection of Toxoplasma gondii exposure in feral cats from Phillip Island, Australia, and risk factors associated with infection

Toxoplasma gondii is considered a disease risk for many native Australian species. Feral cats are the key definitive host of T. gondii in Australia and therefore, investigating the epidemiology of T. gondii in cat populations is essential to understanding the risk posed to wildlife. Test sensitivity and specificity are poorly defined for diagnostic tests targeting T. gondii in cats and there is a need for validated techniques. This study focused on the feral cat population on Phillip Island, Victoria, Australia. We compared a novel real-time PCR (qPCR) protocol to the modified agglutination test (MAT) and used a Bayesian latent class modelling approach to assess the diagnostic parameters of each assay and estimate the true prevalence of T. gondii in feral cats. In addition, we performed multivariable logistic regression to determine risk factors associated with T. gondii infection in cats. Overall T. gondii prevalence by qPCR and MAT was 79.5% (95% confidence interval 72.6-85.0) and 91.8% (84.6-95.8), respectively. Bayesian modelling estimated the sensitivity and specificity of the MAT as 96.2% (95% credible interval 91.8-98.8) and 82.1% (64.9-93.6), and qPCR as 90.1% (83.6-95.5) and 96.0% (82.1-99.8), respectively. True prevalence of T. gondii infection in feral cats on Phillip Island was estimated as 90.3% (83.2-95.1). Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that T. gondii infection was positively associated with weight and this effect was modified by season. Cats trapped in winter had a high probability of infection, regardless of weight. The present study suggests qPCR applied to tissue is a highly sensitive, specific and logistically feasible tool for T. gondii testing in feral cat populations. Additionally, T. gondii infection is highly prevalent in feral cats on Phillip Island, which may have significant impacts on endemic and introduced marsupial populations.

Further development of a reverse-transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay for the detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus and validation in the field with use of an internal positive control

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hooved animals. Global outbreaks have highlighted the significant economic, trade, psychosocial and animal welfare impacts that can arise from the detection of disease in previously 'FMD-free' countries. Rapid and early diagnosis provides significant advantages in disease control and minimization of deleterious consequences. We describe the process of further development and validation of a reverse-transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification foot-and-mouth disease virus (RT-LAMP-FMDV) test, using a published LAMP primer set, for use in the field. An internal positive control (IPC) was designed and introduced for use with the assay to mitigate any intrinsic interference from the unextracted field samples and avoid false negatives. Further modifications were included to improve the speed and operability of the test, for use by non-laboratory trained staff operating under field conditions, with shelf-stable reaction kits which require a minimum of liquid handling skills. Comparison of the assay performance with an established laboratory-based real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (rRT-PCR) test targeting the 3D region of FMD virus (Tetracore Inc) was investigated. LAMP has the potential to complement current laboratory diagnostics, such as rRT-PCR, as a preliminary tool in the investigation of FMD. We describe a strategic approach to validation of the test for use in the field using extracted RNA samples of various serotypes from Thailand and then finally unextracted field samples collected from FMD-suspected animals (primarily oral lesion swabs) from Bhutan and Australia. The statistical approach to validation was performed by Frequentist and Bayesian latent class methods, which both confirmed this new RT-LAMP-FMDV test as fit-for-purpose as a herd diagnostic tool with diagnostic specificity >99% and sensitivity 79% (95% Bayesian credible interval: 65, 90%) on unextracted field samples (oral swabs).

Serological responses of Australian horses using a commercial duplex indirect ELISA following vaccination against strangles

OBJECTIVE

To determine the nature of serological responses in Australian horses using a commercial duplex indirect ELISA (iELISA) following vaccination against strangles.

DESIGN

A group (n = 19) of client-owned horses from five properties were recruited to receive a primary course of a Streptococcus equi subsp. equi (S. equi) extract vaccine. Serological responses were determined by duplex iELISA incorporating S. equi-specific fragments of two cell wall proteins, SEQ2190 and SeM (antigens (Ag) A and C, respectively).

METHODS

The horses were administered a primary strangles vaccination course. Blood was collected immediately prior to each of the three vaccinations at 2-week intervals and additionally at 28 and 56 days following the 3rd vaccination (V3).

RESULTS

Significant increases in mean antibody levels of horses following vaccination were limited only to AgC, which was significantly increased at T2/V3, 14 days following V2 (ratio of geometric means = 3.7; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6, 8.4; P = 0.003). There was no increase in mean antibody to Ag A (ratio of geometric means = 1.4; 95% CI: 0.6, 3.2; P = 0.39). Four horses (22%) exceeded the test cut-off for AgC following vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of Australian horses is unlikely to interfere greatly with detection of strangles using the duplex iELISA. No responses would be anticipated to AgA following vaccination with Equivac© S/Equivac© 2in1 and only a minority are likely to respond to AgC. We conclude that the results of this study validate the usefulness of the duplex iELISA to assist control measures for strangles outbreaks in Australian horse populations.

The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreak in 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We document similarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria and demonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexity of RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predict RRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak Surveillance System (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria.

Reconstructing a transmission network and identifying risk factors of secondary transmissions in the 2010 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Japan

Research aimed at understanding transmission networks, representing a network of "who infected whom" for an infectious disease outbreak, have been actively conducted in recent years. Transmission network models incorporating epidemiological and genetic data are valuable for elucidating disease transmission pathways. In this study, we reconstructed the transmission network of the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Japan in 2010, and explored farm-level risk factors associated with increased risk of secondary transmission. A published, systematic Bayesian transmission network model was applied to epidemiological data of 292 infected farms and whole genome sequence data of 104 of the infected farms. This model can make inferences for known infected farms even lacking genetic data. After estimating the consensus network, the accuracy of the network was examined by comparison with epidemiological data. Then, risk factors inferred to have been sources of secondary transmission were explored using zero-inflated Poisson regression model. As far as we are aware, this study represents the largest FMD outbreak transmission network to be published by such means combining epidemiological and genetic data. The consensus network reasonably generated the epidemiological links, which were estimated from the actual epidemiological investigation. Among 292 farms, 101 farms (35%) were inferred to have been the sources of secondary transmission, and amongst these farms, the median number of secondary cases was 2 (min:1-max:18) farms. The farm-type (small and large -sized pig farms), the number of days from onset to notification, and the number of susceptible farms within a 1-km radius were significantly associated with secondary transmission. Transmission network modelling enabled inference of the connections between infected farms during the FMD epidemic and identified important factors for controlling the risk of secondary transmission. This study demonstrated that the predominant susceptible species held on a farm, farm size, and animal density were associated with increased onwards transmission.

Validation of an indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) for the detection of IgG antibodies against Coxiella burnetii in bovine serum

There is limited knowledge of the true prevalence and distribution of coxiellosis in dairy and beef cattle populations in Australia. For this to occur, apparent prevalence estimates need to be reliably adjusted, accounting for diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) and diagnostic specificity (DSp) of the test used. However, there are few tests available with known diagnostic specifications suitable to inform screening and surveillance activities in the Australian context. We initially modified and optimised a human indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) test for the detection of IgG antibodies against phase I and/or phase II Coxiella burnetii in bovine sera and determined an optimal screening dilution cut-off to be 1:160. Direct comparison of the modified IFA with the commercial IDEXX enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit (Q Fever Ab Test IDEXX Laboratories, United States of America) was performed by testing 458 serum samples from four distinct cattle populations across the east coast of Australia and New Zealand. Cross classified test results were then analysed using Bayesian latent class modelling, to validate the tests in the absence of a gold standard reference test. Results from this analysis indicate that the IFA, at a 1:160 serum dilution, has an estimated DSe of 73.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 61.1, 85.9) and DSp of 98.2% (95% CrI 95.1, 99.7). The commercial IDEXX ELISA kit was found to have a higher DSe of 87.9% (95% CrI 73.9, 96.4) and similar DSp of 97.7% (95% CrI 93.2, 99.7). Evaluation of the diagnostic performance of the IFA and ELISA methods, specifically for use in cattle will enable more accurate interpretation of prevalence estimates of C. burnetii exposure to be reported for cattle in Australia and other countries.

Spatial Analysis of a Cat-Borne Disease Reveals That Soil pH and Clay Content Are Risk Factors for Sarcocystosis in Sheep

Cat-borne parasites and their associated diseases have substantial impacts on human, livestock, and wildlife health worldwide. Despite this, large and detailed datasets that allow researchers to study broad-scale trends in the ecology of cat-borne diseases are either difficult to obtain or non-existent. One condition that is easily detected at slaughter is macroscopic sarcocystosis, a cat-borne parasitosis of sheep (Ovis aries). We conducted a cross-sectional study to describe the geographic distribution of sarcocystosis in sheep throughout South Australia and investigate ecosystem characteristics associated with the presence of disease. Data were obtained from two slaughterhouses which processed 3,865,608 sheep from 4,204 farms across 385,468 km² of South Australia's land mass for the period 2007-2017. A Poisson point process model was developed to quantify environmental characteristics associated with higher densities of sarcocystosis-positive farms. Sarcocystosis was highly clustered on a large island off of the Australian coast and the density of sarcocystosis-positive farms increased in areas of low soil pH (intensity ratio: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.78, 0.95) and high clay content. We hypothesize that region was confounded by, and predominately acted as a proxy for, cat density. Our results have broader implications regarding the health, welfare, economic, and conservation impacts of other cat-borne parasitosis, such as toxoplasmosis.

Spatiotemporal and risk analysis of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Vietnam, 2014-2017

The aim of this study was to describe the spatiotemporal distribution of H5 HPAI outbreak reports for the period 2014-2017 and to identify factors associated with H5 HPAI outbreak reports. Throughout the study period, a total of 139 outbreaks of H5 HPAI in poultry were reported, due to either H5N1 (96 outbreaks) or H5N6 (43 outbreaks) subtype viruses. H5N1 HPAI outbreaks occurred in all areas of Vietnam while H5N6 HPAI outbreaks were only reported in the northern and central provinces. We counted the number of H5N1 and H5N6 outbreak report-positive districts per province over the four-year study period and calculated the provincial-level standardized morbidity ratio for H5N1 and H5N6 outbreak reports as the observed number of positive districts divided by the expected number. A mixed-effects, zero-inflated Poisson regression model was developed to identify risk factors for outbreak reports of each H5N1 and H5N6 subtype virus. Spatially correlated and uncorrelated random effects terms were included in this model to identify areas of the country where outbreak reports occurred after known risk factors had been accounted-for. The presence of an outbreak report in a province in the previous 6-12 months increased the provincial level H5N1 outbreak report risk by a factor of 2.42 (95% Bayesian credible interval [CrI] 1.27-4.60) while 1000 bird increases in the density of chickens decreased provincial level H5N6 outbreak report risk by a factor of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.38 to 0.97). We document distinctly different patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of H5N1 and H5N6 outbreak reports. Most of the variation in H5N1 report risk was accounted-for by the fixed effects included in the zero-inflated Poisson model. In contrast, the amount of unaccounted-for risk in the H5N6 model was substantially greater than the H5N1 model. For H5N6 we recommend that targeted investigations should be carried out in provinces with relatively large spatially correlated random effect terms to identify likely determinants of disease. Similarly, investigations should be carried out in provinces with relatively low spatially correlated random effect terms to identify protective factors for disease and/or reasons for failure to report.

Reconstructing foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks: a methods comparison of transmission network models

A number of transmission network models are available that combine genomic and epidemiological data to reconstruct networks of who infected whom during infectious disease outbreaks. For such models to reliably inform decision-making they must be transparently validated, robust, and capable of producing accurate predictions within the short data collection and inference timeframes typical of outbreak responses. A lack of transparent multi-model comparisons reduces confidence in the accuracy of transmission network model outputs, negatively impacting on their more widespread use as decision-support tools. We undertook a formal comparison of the performance of nine published transmission network models based on a set of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks simulated in a previously free country, with corresponding simulated phylogenies and genomic samples from animals on infected premises. Of the transmission network models tested, Lau’s systematic Bayesian integration framework was found to be the most accurate for inferring the transmission network and timing of exposures, correctly identifying the source of 73% of the infected premises (with 91% accuracy for sources with model support >0.80). The Structured COalescent Transmission Tree Inference provided the most accurate inference of molecular clock rates. This validation study points to which models might be reliably used to reconstruct similar future outbreaks and how to interpret the outputs to inform control. Further research could involve extending the best-performing models to explicitly represent within-host diversity so they can handle next-generation sequencing data, incorporating additional animal and farm-level covariates and combining predictions using Ensemble methods and other approaches.

The prevalence of Coxiella burnetii shedding in dairy goats at the time of parturition in an endemically infected enterprise and associated milk yield losses

Background

This was a panel study of the prevalence of C. burnetii infection in does in an endemic dairy goat enterprise in Victoria, Australia. Our first objective was to determine the prevalence of does shedding C. burnetii at the time of parturition and to quantify the concentration of genome equivalents (GE) present in each C. burnetii positive sample. Our second objective was to determine the proportion of positive does that were persistent shedders. Our final objective was to quantify the association between C. burnetii qPCR status at the time of kidding and daily milk volumes produced during the subsequent lactation.

Results

Vaginal swabs (n= 490) were collected from does at the time of kidding and analysed using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assay. Shedding of C. burnetii was detected in 15% (95% CI: 12% to 18%) of the sampled does. Does were classified as qPCR-negative, qPCR-positive low and qPCR-positive high based on the estimated concentration of GE from the qPCR. Persistent shedding at relatively low concentrations was detected in 20% (95% CI: 10% to35%) of shedding does sampled again at their subsequent parturition. After controlling for possible confounders and adjusting for variation in daily milk yields at the individual doe level, daily milk yields for qPCR-positive high does were reduced by 17% (95% CI: 3% to 32%) compared to qPCR-negative does (p= 0.02).

Conclusions

Shedding concentrations of C. burnetii were highly skewed, with a relatively small group of does shedding relatively high quantities of C. burnetii. Further, high shedding does had reduced milk yields compared to qPCR-negative does. Early detection and culling of high shedding does would result in increased farm profitability and reduce the risk of Q fever transmission.

Review of 20 years of human acute Q fever notifications in Victoria, 1994-2013

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiological and clinical features of acute Q fever in Victoria from 1994 to 2013.

DESIGN

Retrospective case series and spatiotemporal analyses of human notification data.

METHODS

Records for all confirmed cases of Q fever in Victoria notified between 1994 and 2013 were reviewed. Clinical and epidemiological features of the cases were described and spatiotemporal analysis undertaken for all cases potentially acquired within Victoria.

RESULTS

A total of 659 confirmed acute Q fever cases were notified over the study period. Cases decreased at a rate of 4.2% per annum (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9, 7.4%). Notification rates decreased among abattoir workers and related occupations by 10.9% per annum (95% CI: 6.5, 15.0%), whereas those among dairy farmers rose by 14.9% per annum (95% CI: 4.7, 26.0%). The mean age of cases increased over the study period while the ratio of male to female cases decreased. Spatiotemporal analysis suggested endemic transmission, with 55% of cases associated with abattoirs and related businesses and a further 30% considered to have acquired the infection locally. In addition to abattoir-associated clusters, important foci for local acquisition included South and East Gippsland, Wodonga and an outbreak centred on a dairy goat farm west of Melbourne.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a reduction in cases of acute Q fever in Victoria over the past 20 years and a changing epidemiology with respect to age, sex and acquisition source. Epidemiological and spatiotemporal analyses suggested a low level of endemic transmission within the state, with multiple foci of increased zoonotic transmission.

Changes in duodenal CD163-positive cells in dogs with chronic enteropathy after successful treatment

Chronic enteropathy (CE) in dogs is characterized retrospectively per treatment response as food-responsive enteropathy (FRE), antibiotic-responsive enteropathy (ARE), and immunosuppressant-responsive enteropathy (IRE) - the latter most resembling inflammatory bowel disease in people. The aim of this study was to characterize duodenal macrophages (Mϕ) in CE using immunohistochemistry; with calprotectin (CAL) as a marker of early differentiated Mϕ and CD163 expression as a marker for resident Mϕ in the duodenum before and after treatment. Prior to treatment, dogs with FRE and IRE had a lower CD163⁺/CAL⁺ ratio than control dogs (CTRL) in crypts; this increased significantly and normalized compared with CTRL after treatment. Conversely, the CD163⁺/CAL⁺ ratio in dogs with ARE was comparable to that in healthy dogs before and after treatment. In summary, these results suggest that Mϕ play a role in the pathogenesis of CE in FRE and IRE, with a decrease in resident Mϕ and an increase in early differentiated Mϕ, but not in ARE dogs. Mϕ normalize after successful treatment.

Innate immune genes in persistent mating-induced endometritis in horses

Persistent mating-induced endometritis (PMIE) severely decreases fertility in horses. The aim of the present study was to evaluate differences between horses susceptible to PMIE and a control group in terms of the expression of selected immune response and effector genes, and the effects of oestrous cycle stage on this expression. Endometrial biopsies from 18 uterine samples of mares in the control group (eight in dioestrus, 10 in oestrus) and 16 PMIE-susceptible mares (four in dioestrus, 12 in oestrus) were analysed by quantitative real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Genes for pathogen recognition receptors Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) and NLR family CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5), as well as tissue-specific inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), C-X-C motif chemokine ligand (CXCL) 9, CXCL10 and CXCL11 and uteroferrin were expressed at similar levels in the control group and in susceptible mares. Genes for C-C motif chemokine ligand 2 (CCL2) and the antimicrobial peptides secreted phospholipase A2 (sPLA2), lipocalin 2 and lactoferrin were all expressed at higher levels in susceptible compared with control mares. The expression of genes for the antimicrobial peptides equine β-defensin 1 (EBD1), lysozyme (LYZ) and secretory leukoprotease inhibitor (SLPI) was also higher in susceptible than control mares. The diagnostic sensitivity of assays for EBD1, LYZ and SLP1 gene expression to detect susceptibility to PMIE was estimated to be 100%, 94% and 100% respectively, with specificities of 83%, 78% and 78% respectively. When all three tests were positive, the specificity increased to 94%, with an overall sensitivity of 94%. The present study has yielded insights into pathophysiological changes in mares susceptible to PMIE and identified robust diagnostic markers (EBD1, LYZ and SLPI) for susceptibility to this disease.

Investigation of the Role of Campylobacter Infection in Suspected Acute Polyradiculoneuritis in Dogs

Background

Acute polyradiculoneuritis (APN) is an immune‐mediated peripheral nerve disorder in dogs that shares many similarities with Guillain‐Barré syndrome (GBS) in humans, in which the bacterial pathogen Campylobacter spp. now is considered to be a major triggering agent. Little information is available concerning the relationship between APN and Campylobacter spp. in dogs.

Hypothesis/Objectives

To estimate the association between Campylobacter spp. infection and APN. Associations with additional potential risk factors also were investigated, particularly consumption of raw chicken.

Animals

Twenty‐seven client‐owned dogs suffering from suspected APN and 47 healthy dogs, client‐owned or owned by staff members.

Methods

Case‐control study with incidence density‐based sampling. Fecal samples were collected from each enrolled animal to perform direct culture, DNA extraction, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of Campylobacter spp. In some cases, species identification was performed by sequence analysis of the amplicon. Data were obtained from the medical records and owner questionnaires in both groups.

Results

In cases in which the fecal sample was collected within 7 days from onset of clinical signs, APN cases were 9.4 times more likely to be positive for Campylobacter spp compared to control dogs (P < 0.001). In addition, a significant association was detected between dogs affected by APN and the consumption of raw chicken (96% of APN cases; 26% of control dogs). The most common Campylobacter spp. identified was Campylobacter upsaliensis.

Conclusions and Clinical Importance

Raw chicken consumption is a risk factor in dogs for the development of APN, which potentially is mediated by infection with Campylobacter spp.

Q-Vax Q fever vaccine failures, Victoria, Australia 1994-2013

Q-Vax®, a whole cell formalin inactivated vaccine, is currently the only licensed Q fever vaccine for humans world-wide. Efficacy is high, although vaccine failures have been described for those vaccinated within the incubation of a naturally acquired infection. In Australia, it is widely used to prevent occupational acquisition of Q fever and is the mainstay for outbreak control. A retrospective review of all notified cases of acute Q fever to the Victorian department of health, 1993-2013, revealed 34 of 659 cases were previously vaccinated and 10 cases were positive on pre-vaccination screening, precluding vaccination. Twenty-one cases described high-risk exposures for C. burnetii prior to and within 15 days post vaccination and are likely to have been vaccinated within the incubation period of a natural infection. Thirteen cases described symptom onset more than 15 days post vaccination and thus may represent the first described series of Q-Vax vaccine failures following appropriate vaccination.

Estimating the intra-cluster correlation coefficient for evaluating an educational intervention program to improve rabies awareness and dog bite prevention among children in Sikkim, India: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Educational initiatives targeting at-risk populations have long been recognized as a mainstay of ongoing rabies control efforts. Cluster-based studies are often utilized to assess levels of knowledge, attitudes and practices of a population in response to education campaigns. The design of cluster-based studies requires estimates of intra-cluster correlation coefficients obtained from previous studies. This study estimates the school-level intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC) for rabies knowledge change following an educational intervention program.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 226 students from 7 schools in Sikkim, India, using cluster sampling. In order to assess knowledge uptake, rabies education sessions with pre- and post-session questionnaires were administered. Paired differences of proportions were estimated for questions answered correctly. A mixed effects logistic regression model was developed to estimate school-level and student-level ICCs and to test for associations between gender, age, school location and educational level.

RESULTS

The school- and student-level ICCs for rabies knowledge and awareness were 0.04 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.19) and 0.05 (95% CI: 0.2, 0.09), respectively. These ICCs suggest design effect multipliers of 5.45 schools and 1.05 students per school, will be required when estimating sample sizes and designing future cluster randomized trials. There was a good baseline level of rabies knowledge (mean pre-session score 71%), however, key knowledge gaps were identified in understanding appropriate behavior around scared dogs, potential sources of rabies and how to correctly order post rabies exposure precaution steps. After adjusting for the effect of gender, age, school location and education level, school and individual post-session test scores improved by 19%, with similar performance amongst boys and girls attending schools in urban and rural regions. The proportion of participants that were able to correctly order post-exposure precautionary steps following educational intervention increased by 87%.

CONCLUSION

The ICC estimates presented in this study will aid in designing cluster-based studies evaluating educational interventions as part of disease control programs. This study demonstrates the likely benefits of educational intervention incorporating bite prevention and rabies education.

Skeletal fluorosis in marsupials: A comparison of bone lesions in six species from an Australian industrial site

In this study we explored the prevalence, type, location and severity of skeletal lesions in six species of Australian marsupial (Macropus giganteus, Notamacropus rufogriseus, Wallabia bicolor, Phascolarctos cinereus, Trichosurus vulpecula and Pseudocheirus peregrinus) from high and low-fluoride environments. Lesions occurred to varying extents in all species, and lesion distribution varied with biomechanical differences in gait and mastication. Bone fluoride levels increased with severity of periosteal hyperostosis. The mean bone fluoride concentration of individuals lacking hyperostosis (across all species, from both high and low-fluoride environments) was 1100±260μgF^-/g dry bone, compared to 4300±1200μgF^-/g and 6300±1200μgF^-/g in those with mild and severe grade hyperostosis, respectively. Multivariable modelling showed that the probability of observing a lesion varied across species, anatomical location, age and bone fluoride concentration (in a non-linear manner). The pathological changes reported in the marsupials are consistent with the range of fluoride-related lesions described in other mammals, and biomechanical differences among the studied marsupial species offer some explanation for the degree of interspecific variability in prevalence, type, anatomical location, and severity of the lesions.

Koala retrovirus genotyping analyses reveal a low prevalence of KoRV-A in Victorian koalas and an association with clinical disease

PURPOSE

Koala retrovirus (KoRV) is undergoing endogenization into the genome of koalas in Australia, providing an opportunity to assess the effect of retrovirus infection on the health of a population. The prevalence of KoRV in north-eastern Australia (Queensland and New South Wales) is 100 %, whereas previous preliminary investigations in south-eastern Australia (Victoria) suggested KoRV is present at a lower prevalence, although the values have varied widely. Here, we describe a large study of free-ranging koalas in Victoria to estimate the prevalence of KoRV and assess the clinical significance of KoRV infection in wild koalas.

METHODOLOGY

Blood or spleen samples from 648 koalas where tested for KoRV provirus, and subsequently genotyped, using PCRs to detect the pol and env genes respectively. Clinical data was also recorded where possible and analysed in comparison to infection status.

RESULTS

The prevalence of KoRV was 24.7 % (160/648). KoRV-A was detected in 141/160 cases, but KoRV-B, a genotype associated with neoplasia in captive koalas, was not detected. The genotype in 19 cases could not be determined. Genomic differences between KoRV in Victoria and type strains may have impacted genotyping. Factors associated with KoRV infection, based on multivariable analysis, were low body condition score, region sampled, and 'wet bottom' (a staining of the fur around the rump associated with chronic urinary incontinence). Koalas with wet bottom were nearly twice as likely to have KoRV provirus detected than those without wet bottom (odds ratio=1.90, 95 % confidence interval 1.21, 2.98).

CONCLUSION

Our findings have important implications for the conservation of this iconic species, particularly regarding translocation potential of Victorian koalas.

A cross-sectional study to quantify the prevalence of avian influenza viruses in poultry at intervention and non-intervention live bird markets in central Vietnam, 2014

In Vietnam, live bird markets are found in most populated centres, providing the means by which fresh poultry can be purchased by consumers for immediate consumption. Live bird markets are aggregation points for large numbers of poultry, and therefore, it is common for a range of avian influenza viruses to be mixed within live bird markets as a result of different poultry types and species being brought together from different geographical locations. We conducted a cross-sectional study in seven live bird markets in four districts of Thua Thien Hue Province in August and December, 2014. The aims of this study were to (i) document the prevalence of avian influenza in live bird markets (as measured by virus isolation); and (ii) quantify individual bird-, seller- and market-level characteristics that rendered poultry more likely to be positive for avian influenza virus at the time of sale. A questionnaire soliciting details of knowledge, attitude and avian influenza practices was administered to poultry sellers in study markets. At the same time, swabs and faecal samples were collected from individual poultry and submitted for isolation of avian influenza virus. The final data set comprised samples from 1,629 birds from 83 sellers in the seven live bird markets. A total of 113 birds were positive for virus isolation; a prevalence of 6.9 (95% CI 5.8-8.3) avian influenza virus-positive birds per 100 birds submitted for sale. After adjusting for clustering at the market and individual seller levels, none of the explanatory variables solicited in the questionnaire were significantly associated with avian influenza virus isolation positivity. The proportions of variance at the individual market, seller and individual bird levels were 6%, 48% and 46%, respectively. We conclude that the emphasis of avian influenza control efforts in Vietnam should be at the individual seller level as opposed to the market level.

Development of representative magnetic resonance imaging-based atlases of the canine brain and evaluation of three methods for atlas-based segmentation

OBJECTIVE

To develop representative MRI atlases of the canine brain and to evaluate 3 methods of atlas-based segmentation (ABS).

ANIMALS

62 dogs without clinical signs of epilepsy and without MRI evidence of structural brain disease.

PROCEDURES

The MRI scans from 44 dogs were used to develop 4 templates on the basis of brain shape (brachycephalic, mesaticephalic, dolichocephalic, and combined mesaticephalic and dolichocephalic). Atlas labels were generated by segmenting the brain, ventricular system, hippocampal formation, and caudate nuclei. The MRI scans from the remaining 18 dogs were used to evaluate 3 methods of ABS (manual brain extraction and application of a brain shape-specific template [A], automatic brain extraction and application of a brain shape-specific template [B], and manual brain extraction and application of a combined template [C]). The performance of each ABS method was compared by calculation of the Dice and Jaccard coefficients, with manual segmentation used as the gold standard.

RESULTS

Method A had the highest mean Jaccard coefficient and was the most accurate ABS method assessed. Measures of overlap for ABS methods that used manual brain extraction (A and C) ranged from 0.75 to 0.95 and compared favorably with repeated measures of overlap for manual extraction, which ranged from 0.88 to 0.97.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Atlas-based segmentation was an accurate and repeatable method for segmentation of canine brain structures. It could be performed more rapidly than manual segmentation, which should allow the application of computer-assisted volumetry to large data sets and clinical cases and facilitate neuroimaging research and disease diagnosis.

Oestrous cycle-dependent equine uterine immune response to induced infectious endometritis

Infectious endometritis is a major cause of reduced pregnancy rates in horses. The objectives of this study were to establish a timeline of the innate immune response in the uterus of healthy horses and to investigate the oestrous cycle effect on this. Endometrial biopsies were collected from five horses before and at 3, 12, 24, 48 and 72 h after inoculation of Escherichia coli, once in oestrus and once in dioestrus. They were analysed by quantitative real-time PCR, microbiology and histology. Neutrophil numbers increased from very low levels in the absence of inflammation to severe neutrophilia 3 h after inoculation. The concentrations of mRNAs for Toll-like receptor (TLR)2, TLR4, NOD-like receptor NLRC5, tissue inhibitor of metallopeptidases 1 (TIMP1) and chemokines CCL2, CXCL9, CXCL10 and CXCL11 were all increased 3 h after inoculation of E. coli compared to levels detected prior to inoculation. Chemokine mRNA levels remained elevated for 48 h. Concentrations of mRNAs for the antimicrobial peptides equine β-defensin 1 (EBD1), lysozyme, secretory leukoprotease inhibitor (SLPI), lipocalin 2 (LCN2), lactoferrin and uteroferrin were increased between 3 and 12 h post inoculation. The gene for secreted phospholipase A₂ (sPLA₂) was expressed constitutively. P19 uterocalin mRNA levels were higher in dioestrus than in oestrus over the first 24 h of inflammation. Neutrophils and many innate immune genes responded rapidly to the introduction of E. coli into the uterus, while the oestrous cycle stage had only a relatively minor effect on the response to E. coli. This study has delineated a useful model of innate immunity in infectious endometritis of healthy animals.

Comparison of the performance of three PCR assays for the detection and differentiation of Theileria orientalis genotypes

Background

Oriental theileriosis is a tick-borne disease of bovines caused by the members of the Theileria orientalis complex. Recently, we developed a multiplexed tandem (MT) PCR to detect, differentiate and quantitate four genotypes (i.e., buffeli, chitose, ikeda and type 5) of T. orientalis. In this study, we used MT PCR to assess the prevalence and infection intensity of four T. orientalis genotypes in selected cattle herds that experienced oriental theileriosis outbreaks in New Zealand, and compared the sensitivities and specificities of MT PCR, PCR-high resolution melting (PCR-HRM) and a TaqMan® qPCR.

Methods

MT PCR, PCR-HRM analysis for T. orientalis and a TaqMan® qPCR assay for ikeda genotype were employed to test 154 and 88 cattle blood samples from North (where oriental theileriosis outbreaks had occurred; designated as Group 1) and South (where no outbreaks had been reported; Group 2) Islands of New Zealand, respectively. Quantitative data from MT PCR assay were analyzed using generalized linear model and paired-sample t-test. The diagnostic specificity and sensitivity of the assays were estimated using a Bayesian latent class modeling approach.

Results

In Group 1, 99.4% (153/154) of cattle were test-positive for T. orientalis in both the MT PCR and PCR-HRM assays. The apparent prevalences of genotype ikeda in Group 1 were 87.6% (134/153) and 87.7% (135/154) using the MT PCR and Ikeda TaqMan® qPCR assays, respectively. Using the MT PCR test, all four genotypes of T. orientalis were detected. The infection intensity estimated for genotype ikeda was significantly higher (P = 0.009) in severely anaemic cattle than in those without anaemia, and this intensity was significantly higher than that of buffeli (P < 0.001) in the former cattle. Bayesian latent class analysis showed that the diagnostic sensitivities (97.1-98.9%) and specificities (96.5-98.9%) of the three PCR assays were very comparable.

Conclusion

The present findings show the advantages of using the MT PCR assay as a useful tool for in-depth epidemiological and transmission studies of T. orientalis worldwide.

Oriental theileriosis in dairy cows causes a significant milk production loss

BACKGROUND

Oriental theileriosis is a tick-borne, protozoan disease of cattle caused by members of the Theileria orientalis-complex. Recent outbreaks of this disease in eastern Australia have caused major concerns to the dairy and beef farming communities, but there are no published studies of the economic impact of this disease. On a farm in Victoria, Australia, we assessed whether oriental theileriosis has an impact on milk production and reproductive performance in dairy cows.

METHODS

Blood samples collected from all 662 cows on the farm were tested using an established molecular test. For individual cows, milk production and reproductive performance data were collected. A clinical assessment of individual cows was performed. Based on clinical findings and molecular test results, the following groups of cows were classified: group 1, with cardinal clinical signs of oriental theileriosis and molecular test-positive for T. orientalis; group 2, with mild or suspected signs of theileriosis and test-positive; group 3, with no clinical signs and test-positive; and group 4, with no clinical signs and test-negative. Milk production and reproductive performance data for groups 1, 2 and 3 were each compared with those for group 4 using linear and logistic regression analyses, respectively.

RESULTS

At 100 days of lactation, group 1 cows produced significantly less milk (288 l; P = 0.001), milk fat (16.8 kg; P < 0.001) and milk protein (12.6 kg; P < 0.001) compared with group 4. At this lactation point, group 2 also produced significantly less milk fat (13.6 kg; P = 0.002) and milk protein (8.6 kg; P = 0.005) than group 4. At 305 days of lactation, group 1 cows produced significantly less milk (624 l; P = 0.004), milk fat (42.9 kg; P < 0.001) and milk protein (26.0 kg; P < 0.001) compared with group 4 cows. Group 2 cows also produced significantly less milk fat (21.2 kg; P = 0.033) at this lactation point. No statistically significant difference in reproductive performance was found upon pairwise comparisons of groups 1-3 with group 4 cows.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings demonstrate that clinical oriental theileriosis can cause significant milk production losses in dairy cattle.