1
|
Gerber JS, Ray DK, Makowski D, Butler EE, Mueller ND, West PC, Johnson JA, Polasky S, Samberg LH, Siebert S, Sloat L. Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation. Nat Food 2024; 5:125-135. [PMID: 38279050 PMCID: PMC10896731 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00913-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/28/2024]
Abstract
Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of 'steady growth' in actual and attainable yields, 'stalled floor' where yield is stagnated and 'ceiling pressure' where yield gaps are closing. Over 60% of maize area is experiencing 'steady growth', in contrast to ∼12% for rice. Rice and wheat have 84% and 56% of area, respectively, experiencing 'ceiling pressure'. We show that 'ceiling pressure' correlates with subsequent yield stagnation, signalling risks for multiple countries currently realizing gains from yield growth.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- James S Gerber
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA.
- Project Drawdown, .
| | - Deepak K Ray
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - David Makowski
- Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Palaiseau, France
| | - Ethan E Butler
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Nathaniel D Mueller
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Paul C West
- Project Drawdown
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Justin A Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | | | - Stefan Siebert
- Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | | |
Collapse
|
2
|
Swedberg K, Cardoso DS, Castillo-Castillo A, Mamun S, Boyle KJ, Nolte C, Papenfus M, Polasky S. Spatial Heterogeneity in Hedonic Price Effects for Lake Water Quality. Land Econ 2024; 100:89-108. [PMID: 38515763 PMCID: PMC10953790 DOI: 10.3368/le.100.1.102122-0086r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/23/2024]
Abstract
This study uses Zillow's ZTRAX property transaction database to investigate variation in hedonic price effects of water clarity on single-family houses throughout the United States. We consider five spatial scales and estimate models using different sample selection criteria and model specifications. Our results indicate considerable spatial heterogeneity both within and across the four U.S. Census regions. However, we also find heterogeneity resulting from different types of investigator decisions, including sample selection and modelling choices. Thus, it is necessary to use practical knowledge to consider the limits of market areas and to investigate the robustness of estimation results to investigator choices. (JEL Q51).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kristen Swedberg
- Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
- ORISE Fellow in Office of Water, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC
| | - Diego S Cardoso
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN
| | | | - Saleh Mamun
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN
- The Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN
- Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota - Duluth, Duluth, MN
| | - Kevin J Boyle
- Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
- Blackwood Department of Real Estate, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
| | - Christoph Nolte
- Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA
- Faculty of Computing & Data Sciences, Boston University, Boston, MA
| | | | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN
- The Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Neugarten RA, Chaplin-Kramer R, Sharp RP, Schuster R, Strimas-Mackey M, Roehrdanz PR, Mulligan M, van Soesbergen A, Hole D, Kennedy CM, Oakleaf JR, Johnson JA, Kiesecker J, Polasky S, Hanson JO, Rodewald AD. Mapping the planet's critical areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people. Nat Commun 2024; 15:261. [PMID: 38199986 PMCID: PMC10781687 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43832-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 11/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature's contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature's contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature's contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rachel A Neugarten
- Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Cornell University, 226 Mann Drive, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
- Conservation International, 2100 Crystal Drive #600, Arlington, VA, 22202, USA.
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Rd, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA.
| | - Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Global Science, WWF, 131 Steuart St, San Francisco, CA, 94105, USA
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 1954 Buford Ave, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Richard P Sharp
- Global Science, WWF, 131 Steuart St, San Francisco, CA, 94105, USA
- SPRING, 5455 Shafter Ave, Oakland, CA, 94618, USA
| | - Richard Schuster
- Nature Conservancy of Canada, 245 Eglinton Ave East, Suite 410, Toronto, ON, M4P 3J1, Canada
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Matthew Strimas-Mackey
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Rd, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA
| | - Patrick R Roehrdanz
- Conservation International, 2100 Crystal Drive #600, Arlington, VA, 22202, USA
| | - Mark Mulligan
- Department of Geography, King's College London, Bush House, North East Wing, 40 Aldwych, London, WC2B 4BG, UK
| | - Arnout van Soesbergen
- Department of Geography, King's College London, Bush House, North East Wing, 40 Aldwych, London, WC2B 4BG, UK
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
| | - David Hole
- Conservation International, 2100 Crystal Drive #600, Arlington, VA, 22202, USA
| | | | - James R Oakleaf
- Global Protect Oceans, Lands and Waters Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO, 80524, USA
| | - Justin A Johnson
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
- Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Joseph Kiesecker
- Global Protect Oceans, Lands and Waters Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO, 80524, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
- Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | | | - Amanda D Rodewald
- Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Cornell University, 226 Mann Drive, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, 159 Sapsucker Woods Rd, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Thakrar SK, Johnson JA, Polasky S. Land-Use Decisions Have Substantial Air Quality Health Effects. Environ Sci Technol 2024; 58:381-390. [PMID: 38101325 PMCID: PMC10785758 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c02280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023]
Abstract
Understanding how best to use limited land without compromising food security, health, and beneficial ecosystem functions is a critical challenge of our time. Ecosystem service assessments increasingly inform land-use decisions but seldom include the effects of land use on air quality, the largest environmental health risk. Here, we estimate and value the air quality health effects of potential land-use policies and projected trends in the United States, alongside carbon sequestration and economic returns to land, until 2051. We show that air quality health effects are of first-order importance in land-use decisions, often larger in value than carbon sequestration and economic returns combined. When air quality is properly accounted for, policies that appeared beneficial are shown to be detrimental and vice versa. Land-use-driven air quality impacts are largely from agricultural emissions and biogenic forest emissions, although incentives for reduced deforestation remain beneficial overall. Without evaluating air quality, we are unable to determine whether land-use decisions make us better or worse off.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sumil K. Thakrar
- Department
of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota; St Paul, Minnesota 55108-1038, United
States
- The
Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota; St. Paul, Minnesota 55108-1038, United
States
| | - Justin A. Johnson
- Department
of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota; St Paul, Minnesota 55108-1038, United
States
- The
Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota; St. Paul, Minnesota 55108-1038, United
States
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department
of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota; St Paul, Minnesota 55108-1038, United
States
- The
Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota; St. Paul, Minnesota 55108-1038, United
States
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Zheng H, Wu T, Ouyang Z, Polasky S, Ruckelshaus M, Wang L, Xiao Y, Gao X, Li C, Daily GC. Gross ecosystem product (GEP): Quantifying nature for environmental and economic policy innovation. Ambio 2023; 52:1952-1967. [PMID: 37943417 PMCID: PMC10654296 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01948-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 09/27/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
The large-scale loss of ecosystem assets around the world, and the resultant reduction in the provision of nature's benefits to people, underscores the urgent need for better metrics of ecological performance as well as their integration into decision-making. Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is a measure of the aggregate monetary value of final ecosystem-related goods and services in a specific area and for a given accounting period. GEP accounting captures the use of many ecosystem services in production processes across the economy, which are then valued in terms of their benefits to society. GEP has five key elements that make it transparent, trackable, and readily understandable: (1) a focus on nature's contributions to people; (2) the measurement of ecosystem assets as stocks and ecosystem services as flows; (3) the quantification of ecosystem service use; (4) an understanding of ecosystem service supply chains through value realization; and (5) the disaggregation of benefits across groups. Correspondingly, a series of innovative policies based on GEP have been designed and implemented in China. The theoretical and practical lessons provided by these experiences can support continued policy innovation for green and inclusive development around the world.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hua Zheng
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100085, China.
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
| | - Tong Wu
- Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Zhiyun Ouyang
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100085, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
- Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Mary Ruckelshaus
- Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| | - Lijuan Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100085, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Yi Xiao
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100085, China
| | - Xiaolong Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 18 Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100085, China
| | - Cong Li
- School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.74 West Yanta Road, Yanta District, Xi'an, 710061, China
| | - Gretchen C Daily
- Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Goodkind AL, Thakrar SK, Polasky S, Hill JD, Tilman D. Managing nitrogen in maize production for societal gain. PNAS Nexus 2023; 2:pgad319. [PMID: 37881340 PMCID: PMC10597588 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad319] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/27/2023]
Abstract
Highly productive agriculture is essential to feed humanity, but agricultural practices often harm human health and the environment. Using a nitrogen (N) mass-balance model to account for N inputs and losses to the environment, along with empirical based models of yield response, we estimate the potential gains to society from improvements in nitrogen management that could reduce health and environmental costs from maize grown in the US Midwest. We find that the monetized health and environmental costs to society of current maize nitrogen management practices are six times larger than the profits earned by farmers. Air emissions of ammonia from application of synthetic fertilizer and manure are the largest source of pollution costs. We show that it is possible to reduce these costs by 85% ($21.6 billion per year, 2020$) while simultaneously increasing farmer profits. These gains come from (i) managing fertilizer ammonia emissions by changing the mix of fertilizer and manure applied, (ii) improving production efficiency by reducing fertilization rates, and (iii) halting maize production on land where health and environmental costs exceed farmer profits, namely on low-productivity land and locations in which emissions are especially harmful. Reducing ammonia emissions from changing fertilizer types-in (i)-reduces health and environmental costs by 46% ($11.7 billion). Reducing fertilization rates-in (ii)-limits nitrous oxide emissions, further reducing health and environmental costs by $9.5 billion, and halting production on 16% of maize-growing land in the Midwest-in (iii)-reduces costs by an additional $0.4 billion.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andrew L Goodkind
- Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
| | - Sumil K Thakrar
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Jason D Hill
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - David Tilman
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St.Paul, MN 55108, USA
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Johnson JA, Baldos UL, Corong E, Hertel T, Polasky S, Cervigni R, Roxburgh T, Ruta G, Salemi C, Thakrar S. Investing in nature can improve equity and economic returns. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2220401120. [PMID: 37364118 PMCID: PMC10318957 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2220401120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Sustainable development requires jointly achieving economic development to raise standards of living and environmental sustainability to secure these gains for the long run. Here, we develop a local-to-global, and global-to-local, earth-economy model that integrates the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-computable general equilibrium model of the economy with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model of fine-scale, spatially explicit ecosystem services. The integrated model, GTAP-InVEST, jointly determines land use, environmental conditions, ecosystem services, market prices, supply and demand across economic sectors, trade across regions, and aggregate performance metrics like GDP. We use the integrated model to analyze the contribution of investing in nature for economic prosperity, accounting for the impact of four important ecosystem services (pollination, timber provision, marine fisheries, and carbon sequestration). We show that investments in nature result in large improvements relative to a business-as-usual path, accruing annual gains of $100 to $350 billion (2014 USD) with the largest percentage gains in the lowest-income countries. Our estimates include only a small subset of ecosystem services and could be far higher with inclusion of more ecosystem services, incorporation of ecological tipping points, and reduction in substitutability that limits economic adjustments to declines in natural capital. Our analysis highlights the need for improved environmental-economic modeling and the vital importance of integrating environmental information firmly into economic analysis and policy. The benefits of doing so are potentially very large, with the greatest percentage benefits accruing to inhabitants of the poorest countries.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Uris Lantz Baldos
- Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN47907-2056
| | - Erwin Corong
- Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN47907-2056
| | - Thomas Hertel
- Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN47907-2056
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN55108
| | | | - Toby Roxburgh
- Independent Consultant, BristolBS7 8E, United Kingdom
| | - Giovanni Ruta
- Global Program on Sustainability, The World Bank, WashingtonDC20006
| | - Colette Salemi
- Department of Economics, University of Victoria, BCV8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Sumil Thakrar
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN55108
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Mamun S, Castillo-Castillo A, Swedberg K, Zhang J, Boyle KJ, Cardoso D, Kling CL, Nolte C, Papenfus M, Phaneuf D, Polasky S. Valuing water quality in the United States using a national dataset on property values. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2210417120. [PMID: 37011190 PMCID: PMC10104588 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2210417120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Accepted: 02/17/2023] [Indexed: 04/05/2023] Open
Abstract
High-quality water resources provide a wide range of benefits, but the value of water quality is often not fully represented in environmental policy decisions, due in large part to an absence of water quality valuation estimates at large, policy relevant scales. Using data on property values with nationwide coverage across the contiguous United States, we estimate the benefits of lake water quality as measured through capitalization in housing markets. We find compelling evidence that homeowners place a premium on improved water quality. This premium is largest for lakefront property and decays with distance from the waterbody. In aggregate, we estimate that 10% improvement of water quality for the contiguous United States has a value of $6 to 9 billion to property owners. This study provides credible evidence for policymakers to incorporate lake water quality value estimates in environmental decision-making.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Saleh Mamun
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN55108
- The Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN55108
- Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota–Duluth, Duluth, MN55811
| | | | - Kristen Swedberg
- Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA24061
| | - Jiarui Zhang
- Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI53706
| | - Kevin J. Boyle
- Blackwood Department of Real Estate, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA24061
| | - Diego Cardoso
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN47907
| | - Catherine L. Kling
- Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY14853
- Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY14853
| | - Christoph Nolte
- Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA02215
- Faculty of Computing & Data Sciences, Boston University, Boston, MA02215
| | | | - Daniel Phaneuf
- Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI53706
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN55108
- The Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN55108
- Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN55108
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Chaplin-Kramer R, Neugarten RA, Sharp RP, Collins PM, Polasky S, Hole D, Schuster R, Strimas-Mackey M, Mulligan M, Brandon C, Diaz S, Fluet-Chouinard E, Gorenflo LJ, Johnson JA, Kennedy CM, Keys PW, Longley-Wood K, McIntyre PB, Noon M, Pascual U, Reidy Liermann C, Roehrdanz PR, Schmidt-Traub G, Shaw MR, Spalding M, Turner WR, van Soesbergen A, Watson RA. Mapping the planet's critical natural assets. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:51-61. [PMID: 36443466 PMCID: PMC9834042 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-022-01934-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature's contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to also maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world's population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- SPRING, Oakland, CA, USA. .,Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA. .,Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
| | - Rachel A. Neugarten
- grid.5386.8000000041936877XDept. of Natural Resources & Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY USA ,grid.421477.30000 0004 0639 1575Conservation International, Arlington, VA USA
| | | | - Pamela M. Collins
- grid.421477.30000 0004 0639 1575Conservation International, Arlington, VA USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- grid.17635.360000000419368657Dept. of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN USA
| | - David Hole
- grid.421477.30000 0004 0639 1575Conservation International, Arlington, VA USA
| | - Richard Schuster
- grid.34428.390000 0004 1936 893XDept. of Biology, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON Canada ,grid.436484.90000 0004 0496 3533Nature Conservancy of Canada, Toronto, Ontario Canada
| | | | - Mark Mulligan
- grid.13097.3c0000 0001 2322 6764Dept. of Geography, King’s College London, Bush House, London, UK
| | - Carter Brandon
- grid.433793.90000 0001 1957 4854World Resources Institute, Washington, DC USA
| | - Sandra Diaz
- grid.509694.70000 0004 0427 3591Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (IMBIV), CONICET, Casilla de Correo 495, Córdoba, Argentina ,grid.10692.3c0000 0001 0115 2557Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Departamento de Diversidad Biológica y Ecología, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - Etienne Fluet-Chouinard
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Dept. of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | - L. J. Gorenflo
- grid.29857.310000 0001 2097 4281Dept. of Landscape Architecture, Penn State University, University Park, PA USA
| | - Justin A. Johnson
- grid.17635.360000000419368657Dept. of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN USA
| | - Christina M. Kennedy
- grid.422375.50000 0004 0591 6771Global Protect Oceans, Lands and Waters Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - Patrick W. Keys
- grid.47894.360000 0004 1936 8083School of Global Environmental Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO USA
| | - Kate Longley-Wood
- grid.422375.50000 0004 0591 6771The Nature Conservancy, 4245 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA USA
| | - Peter B. McIntyre
- grid.5386.8000000041936877XDept. of Natural Resources & Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY USA
| | - Monica Noon
- grid.421477.30000 0004 0639 1575Conservation International, Arlington, VA USA
| | - Unai Pascual
- grid.423984.00000 0001 2002 0998Basque Centre for Climate Change, Sede Building 1, 1st floor. Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Spain ,grid.424810.b0000 0004 0467 2314Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, Bilbao, Spain ,grid.5734.50000 0001 0726 5157Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | | | | | - M. Rebecca Shaw
- grid.439064.c0000 0004 0639 3060World Wildlife Fund, San Francisco, CA USA
| | - Mark Spalding
- grid.422375.50000 0004 0591 6771The Nature Conservancy, 4245 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA USA ,grid.9024.f0000 0004 1757 4641Dept. of Physical, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Pian dei Mantellini, Siena, Italy
| | - Will R. Turner
- grid.421477.30000 0004 0639 1575Conservation International, Arlington, VA USA
| | - Arnout van Soesbergen
- grid.13097.3c0000 0001 2322 6764Dept. of Geography, King’s College London, Bush House, London, UK ,grid.439150.a0000 0001 2171 2822UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Reg A. Watson
- grid.1009.80000 0004 1936 826XInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Chapin FS, Weber EU, Bennett EM, Biggs R, van den Bergh J, Adger WN, Crépin AS, Polasky S, Folke C, Scheffer M, Segerson K, Anderies JM, Barrett S, Cardenas JC, Carpenter SR, Fischer J, Kautsky N, Levin SA, Shogren JF, Walker B, Wilen J, de Zeeuw A. Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts. Ambio 2022; 51:1907-1920. [PMID: 35380347 PMCID: PMC8982314 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-022-01721-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2021] [Revised: 10/30/2021] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital-equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth's current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- F. Stuart Chapin
- Professor Emeritus, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
| | - Elke U. Weber
- Andlinger Center, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
| | - Elena M. Bennett
- Bieler School of Environment, McGill University, Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, H9X 3V9 Canada
| | - Reinette Biggs
- Centre for Sustainability Transitions, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jeroen van den Bergh
- ICTA, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain
- SBE & IVM, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - W. Neil Adger
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ UK
| | - Anne-Sophie Crépin
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108 USA
| | - Carl Folke
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Kathleen Segerson
- Department of Economics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-1063 USA
| | - John M. Anderies
- School of Human Evolution and Social Change and School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-2401 USA
| | - Scott Barrett
- Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 USA
| | - Juan-Camilo Cardenas
- Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01002 USA
| | | | - Joern Fischer
- Faculty of Sustainability, Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, 21335 Lüneburg, Germany
| | - Nils Kautsky
- Professor Emeritus, Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Simon A. Levin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1003 USA
| | - Jason F. Shogren
- Department of Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071-3985 USA
| | - Brian Walker
- CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601 Australia
| | - James Wilen
- Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616 USA
| | - Aart de Zeeuw
- Tilburg School of Economics and Management, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Luby IH, Miller SJ, Polasky S. When and where to protect forests. Nature 2022; 609:89-93. [PMID: 35978190 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05096-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2021] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Ongoing deforestation poses a major threat to biodiversity1,2. With limited resources and imminent threats, deciding when as well as where to conserve is a fundamental question. Here we use a dynamic optimization approach to identify an optimal sequence for the conservation of plant species in 458 forested ecoregions globally over the next 50 years. The optimization approach includes species richness in each forested ecoregion, complementarity of species across ecoregions, costs of conservation that rise with cumulative protection in an ecoregion, the existing degree of protection, the rate of deforestation and the potential for reforestation in each ecoregion. The optimal conservation strategy for this formulation initially targets a small number of ecoregions where further deforestation leads to large reductions in species and where the costs of conservation are low. In later years, conservation efforts spread to more ecoregions, and invest in both expanded protection of primary forest and reforestation. The largest gains in species conservation come in Melanesia, South and Southeast Asia, the Anatolian peninsula, northern South America and Central America. The results highlight the potentially large gains in conservation that can be made with carefully targeted investments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ian H Luby
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA.
| | - Steve J Miller
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA.,Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Chaplin-Kramer R, Brauman KA, Cavender-Bares J, Díaz S, Duarte GT, Enquist BJ, Garibaldi LA, Geldmann J, Halpern BS, Hertel TW, Khoury CK, Krieger JM, Lavorel S, Mueller T, Neugarten RA, Pinto-Ledezma J, Polasky S, Purvis A, Reyes-García V, Roehrdanz PR, Shannon LJ, Shaw MR, Strassburg BBN, Tylianakis JM, Verburg PH, Visconti P, Zafra-Calvo N. Conservation needs to integrate knowledge across scales. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 6:118-119. [PMID: 34824390 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01605-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute on the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. .,Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA.
| | - Kate A Brauman
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | | | - Sandra Díaz
- Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (IMBIV), CONICET and FCEFyN, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | | | - Brian J Enquist
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.,Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd., Santa Fe, NM, USA
| | - Lucas A Garibaldi
- Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Río Negro, Argentina.,Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Río Negro, Argentina
| | - Jonas Geldmann
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.,Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Thomas W Hertel
- Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Layfayette, IN, USA
| | - Colin K Khoury
- San Diego Botanic Garden, Encinitas, CA, USA.,International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
| | | | - Sandra Lavorel
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Univeristé Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Universtté Savoie-Mt Blanc, Grenoble, France
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft fuer Naturforschung, Frankfurt (Main), Germany.,Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Rachel A Neugarten
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - Jesús Pinto-Ledezma
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA.,Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK
| | - Victoria Reyes-García
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain.,Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Lynne J Shannon
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - M Rebecca Shaw
- Global Science, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Bernardo B N Strassburg
- International Institute for Sustainability, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.,Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Department of Geography and the Environment, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Jason M Tylianakis
- Bioprotection Aotearoa, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Piero Visconti
- IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Noelia Zafra-Calvo
- Basque Centre for Climate Change bc3, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, Biscay, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Sumaila UR, Skerritt DJ, Schuhbauer A, Villasante S, Cisneros-Montemayor AM, Sinan H, Burnside D, Abdallah PR, Abe K, Addo KA, Adelsheim J, Adewumi IJ, Adeyemo OK, Adger N, Adotey J, Advani S, Afrin Z, Aheto D, Akintola SL, Akpalu W, Alam L, Alava JJ, Allison EH, Amon DJ, Anderies JM, Anderson CM, Andrews E, Angelini R, Anna Z, Antweiler W, Arizi EK, Armitage D, Arthur RI, Asare N, Asche F, Asiedu B, Asuquo F, Badmus L, Bailey M, Ban N, Barbier EB, Barley S, Barnes C, Barrett S, Basurto X, Belhabib D, Bennett E, Bennett NJ, Benzaken D, Blasiak R, Bohorquez JJ, Bordehore C, Bornarel V, Boyd DR, Breitburg D, Brooks C, Brotz L, Campbell D, Cannon S, Cao L, Cardenas Campo JC, Carpenter S, Carpenter G, Carson RT, Carvalho AR, Castrejón M, Caveen AJ, Chabi MN, Chan KMA, Chapin FS, Charles T, Cheung W, Christensen V, Chuku EO, Church T, Clark C, Clarke TM, Cojocaru AL, Copeland B, Crawford B, Crépin AS, Crowder LB, Cury P, Cutting AN, Daily GC, Da-Rocha JM, Das A, de la Puente S, de Zeeuw A, Deikumah SKS, Deith M, Dewitte B, Doubleday N, Duarte CM, Dulvy NK, Eddy T, Efford M, Ehrlich PR, Elsler LG, Fakoya KA, Falaye AE, Fanzo J, Fitzsimmons C, Flaaten O, Florko KRN, Aviles MF, Folke C, Forrest A, Freeman P, Freire KMF, Froese R, Frölicher TL, Gallagher A, Garcon V, Gasalla MA, Gephart JA, Gibbons M, Gillespie K, Giron-Nava A, Gjerde K, Glaser S, Golden C, Gordon L, Govan H, Gryba R, Halpern BS, Hanich Q, Hara M, Harley CDG, Harper S, Harte M, Helm R, Hendrix C, Hicks CC, Hood L, Hoover C, Hopewell K, Horta E Costa BB, Houghton JDR, Iitembu JA, Isaacs M, Isahaku S, Ishimura G, Islam M, Issifu I, Jackson J, Jacquet J, Jensen OP, Ramon JJ, Jin X, Jonah A, Jouffray JB, Juniper SK, Jusoh S, Kadagi I, Kaeriyama M, Kaiser MJ, Kaiser BA, Kakujaha-Matundu O, Karuaihe ST, Karumba M, Kemmerly JD, Khan AS, Kimani P, Kleisner K, Knowlton N, Kotowicz D, Kurien J, Kwong LE, Lade S, Laffoley D, Lam ME, Lam VWL, Lange GM, Latif MT, Le Billon P, Le Brenne V, Le Manach F, Levin SA, Levin L, Limburg KE, List J, Lombard AT, Lopes PFM, Lotze HK, Mallory TG, Mangar RS, Marszalec D, Mattah P, Mayorga J, McAusland C, McCauley DJ, McLean J, McMullen K, Meere F, Mejaes A, Melnychuk M, Mendo J, Micheli F, Millage K, Miller D, Mohamed KS, Mohammed E, Mokhtar M, Morgan L, Muawanah U, Munro GR, Murray G, Mustafa S, Nayak P, Newell D, Nguyen T, Noack F, Nor AM, Nunoo FKE, Obura D, Okey T, Okyere I, Onyango P, Oostdijk M, Orlov P, Österblom H, Owens D, Owens T, Oyinlola M, Pacoureau N, Pakhomov E, Abrantes JP, Pascual U, Paulmier A, Pauly D, Pèlèbè ROE, Peñalosa D, Pennino MG, Peterson G, Pham TTT, Pinkerton E, Polasky S, Polunin NVC, Prah E, Ramírez J, Relano V, Reygondeau G, Robadue D, Roberts C, Rogers A, Roumbedakis K, Sala E, Scheffer M, Segerson K, Seijo JC, Seto KC, Shogren JF, Silver JJ, Singh G, Soszynski A, Splichalova DV, Spring M, Stage J, Stephenson F, Stewart BD, Sultan R, Suttle C, Tagliabue A, Tall A, Talloni-Álvarez N, Tavoni A, Taylor DRF, Teh LSL, Teh LCL, Thiebot JB, Thiele T, Thilsted SH, Thumbadoo RV, Tigchelaar M, Tol RSJ, Tortell P, Troell M, Uzmanoğlu MS, van Putten I, van Santen G, Villaseñor-Derbez JC, Wabnitz CCC, Walsh M, Walsh JP, Wambiji N, Weber EU, Westley F, Williams S, Wisz MS, Worm B, Xiao L, Yagi N, Yamazaki S, Yang H, Zeller D. WTO must ban harmful fisheries subsidies. Science 2021; 374:544. [PMID: 34709891 DOI: 10.1126/science.abm1680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
[Figure: see text].
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Daniel J Skerritt
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Anna Schuhbauer
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Sebastian Villasante
- Cross-Research in Environmental Technologies, Department of Applied Economics, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, 15782, Spain
| | | | - Hussain Sinan
- Marine Affairs Program, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Duncan Burnside
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Patrízia Raggi Abdallah
- Instituto de Ciências Econômicas, Administrativas e Contábeis, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande, RS, Brazil
| | - Keita Abe
- Centre for Applied Research at Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen, Norway
| | - Kwasi A Addo
- Institute for Environment and Sanitation Studies, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
| | - Julia Adelsheim
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Ibukun J Adewumi
- Global Ocean Accounts Partnership, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,African Marine Environment Sustainability Initiative, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Olanike K Adeyemo
- Fish and Wildlife Unit, Department of Veterinary Public Health & Preventive Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Neil Adger
- Department of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, EX44RJ, UK
| | - Joshua Adotey
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Sahir Advani
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Dakshin Foundation, Bengaluru, India
| | - Zahidah Afrin
- The World Maritime University-Sasakawa Global Ocean Institute, World Maritime University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Denis Aheto
- Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, University of Cape Coast, Ghana
| | | | - Wisdom Akpalu
- School of Research and Graduate Studies, Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration, Achimota-Accra, Ghana
| | - Lubna Alam
- Institute for Environment and Development, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
| | - Juan José Alava
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | | | | | - John M Anderies
- School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA.,School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA
| | - Christopher M Anderson
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Evan Andrews
- Ocean Frontier Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada
| | - Ronaldo Angelini
- Civil Engineering Department, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, CP 1524, Natal/RN, Brazil
| | - Zuzy Anna
- Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 40132, Indonesia.,SDGs Center, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
| | - Werner Antweiler
- Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada
| | - Evans K Arizi
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana.,Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, University of Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Derek Armitage
- School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
| | - Robert I Arthur
- Woodhill Solutions, Glyneath House, Longtown, Herefordshire, UK
| | - Noble Asare
- Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Frank Asche
- School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32603, USA.,Department of Industrial Economics, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway
| | - Berchie Asiedu
- Department of Fisheries and Water Resources, School of Natural Resources, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani, Ghana
| | - Francis Asuquo
- Department of Oceanography, University of Calabar, Nigeria
| | - Lanre Badmus
- World Aquaculture Society, African Chapter West African Region, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Megan Bailey
- Marine Affairs Program, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Natalie Ban
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Edward B Barbier
- Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1771, USA
| | - Shanta Barley
- Minderoo Foundation, Broadway Nedlands, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Colin Barnes
- Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK
| | | | - Xavier Basurto
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC 28516, USA
| | | | - Elena Bennett
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences and Bieler School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0G4, Canada
| | - Nathan J Bennett
- The Peopled Seas Initiative, Vancouver, BC, Canada.,People and the Ocean Specialist Group, Commission on Environmental, Economic and Social Policy, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland
| | - Dominique Benzaken
- Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
| | - Robert Blasiak
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - John J Bohorquez
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA
| | - Cesar Bordehore
- Department of Ecology, University of Alicante, 03690 Alicante, Spain
| | - Virginie Bornarel
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - David R Boyd
- School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | | | - Cassandra Brooks
- Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303-0397, USA
| | - Lucas Brotz
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Donovan Campbell
- Department of Geography and Geology, The University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - Sara Cannon
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Ling Cao
- School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | | | - Steve Carpenter
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison WI 53706, USA
| | | | - Richard T Carson
- Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Adriana R Carvalho
- Department of Ecology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 59078-970, Brazil
| | - Mauricio Castrejón
- Grupo de Investigación en Biodiversidad, Medio Ambiente y Salud, Universidad de Las Américas, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Alex J Caveen
- Biological and Marine Sciences, Hull University, Hull, HU6 7RX, UK
| | - M Nicole Chabi
- Hokkaido University, Institute for the Advancement of Higher Education, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Kai M A Chan
- Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - F Stuart Chapin
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | - Tony Charles
- School of the Environment, Saint Mary's University, Halifax, NS, B3H 3C3, Canada.,School of Business, Saint Mary's University, Halifax, NS, B3H 3C3, Canada
| | - William Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Ernest O Chuku
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Trevor Church
- Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Colin Clark
- Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Tayler M Clarke
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Andreea L Cojocaru
- Department of Innovation, Management and Marketing, University of Stavanger Business School, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway
| | - Brian Copeland
- Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Brian Crawford
- Coastal Resources Center, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA
| | - Anne-Sophie Crépin
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 10405, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Larry B Crowder
- Hopkins Marine Station of Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
| | - Philippe Cury
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Marseille, France
| | - Allison N Cutting
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Gretchen C Daily
- Natural Capital Project, Biology Department and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Jose Maria Da-Rocha
- Economics and Business Administration for Society, Universidade de Vigo, As Lagoas, Campus Universitario, 32004 Ourense, Spain.,Facultade de Ciencias Empresariais e Turismo, Universidade de Vigo, As Lagoas, Campus Universitario, 32004 Ourense, Spain
| | - Abhipsita Das
- Department of Applied Economics, Auburn University, College of Agriculture, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
| | - Santiago de la Puente
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Aart de Zeeuw
- Tilburg Sustainability Center and Department of Economics, Tilburg University, 5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands
| | - Savior K S Deikumah
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Mairin Deith
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Boris Dewitte
- Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, Campus Andrés Bello Universidad de La Serena, La Serena, Chile
| | - Nancy Doubleday
- Faculty of Humanities, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Carlos M Duarte
- Red Sea Research Centre and Computational Bioscience Research Center, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia.,Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, 23955, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nicholas K Dulvy
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Tyler Eddy
- Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
| | - Meaghan Efford
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Paul R Ehrlich
- Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Laura G Elsler
- World Maritime University of the International Maritime Organization, a Specialized Agency of the United Nations, Malmö, Sweden
| | | | - A Eyiwunmi Falaye
- Department of Aquaculture and Fisheries Management, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Jessica Fanzo
- Berman Institute of Bioethics, Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
| | - Clare Fitzsimmons
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
| | - Ola Flaaten
- The Norwegian College of Fishery Science, The Arctic University of Norway, Langnes, 9037, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Katie R N Florko
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Marta Flotats Aviles
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Carl Folke
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Peter Freeman
- Coastal Resources Center, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA
| | - Kátia M F Freire
- Departamento de Engenharia de Pesca e Aquicultura, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, São Cristóvão, Sergipe, Brazil
| | - Rainer Froese
- Geomar-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, 24105 Kiel, Germany
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.,Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Veronique Garcon
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratory of Space Geophysical and Oceanographic Studies, Toulouse, France
| | - Maria A Gasalla
- University of Sao Paulo, Oceanographic Institute, Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory, São Paulo, 05508-120, Brazil
| | - Jessica A Gephart
- Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA
| | - Mark Gibbons
- Biodiversity and Conservation Biology, University of the Western Cape, Belville, Western Cape, South Africa.,University of Western Cape, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Kyle Gillespie
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Alfredo Giron-Nava
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Kristina Gjerde
- IUCN Global Marine and Polar Programme, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Sarah Glaser
- Secure Fisheries, a program of One Earth Future foundation, Broomfield, CO 80021, USA
| | - Christopher Golden
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Line Gordon
- Global Resilience Partnership, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Hugh Govan
- School of Government, Development and International Affairs, University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji
| | - Rowenna Gryba
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93117, USA.,National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA
| | - Quentin Hanich
- Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
| | - Mafaniso Hara
- Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Western Cape, Bellville 7535, South Africa
| | - Christopher D G Harley
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Sarah Harper
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Michael Harte
- College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Rebecca Helm
- University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC 28804, USA.,Smithsonian Institution National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20560, USA
| | - Cullen Hendrix
- Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO 80208, USA.,Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC 20036, USA
| | - Christina C Hicks
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK
| | - Lincoln Hood
- Marine Futures Laboratory and Sea Around Us - Indian Ocean, School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
| | - Carie Hoover
- Marine Affairs Program, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Kristen Hopewell
- School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Bárbara B Horta E Costa
- Center of Marine Sciences, University of Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
| | - Jonathan D R Houghton
- School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, Co. Antrim, Northern Ireland
| | - Johannes A Iitembu
- Department of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Sam Nujoma Campus, University of Namibia, Henties Bay, Namibia
| | - Moenieba Isaacs
- Institute for Poverty, Land and Agrarian Studies, School of Government, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Western Cape, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Sadique Isahaku
- General Education Academic and Career Pathway, Milwaukee Area Technical College, Milwaukee, WI 53233, USA
| | | | - Monirul Islam
- Department of Fisheries, University of Dhaka, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh
| | - Ibrahim Issifu
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Jeremy Jackson
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | | | - Olaf P Jensen
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | | | - Xue Jin
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Ocean Development Research Institute, Major Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
| | - Alberta Jonah
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | | | - S Kim Juniper
- School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada.,Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
| | - Sufian Jusoh
- Institute of Malaysian and International Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan, Malaysia
| | | | - Masahide Kaeriyama
- Hokkaido University, Institute for the Advancement of Higher Education, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Michel J Kaiser
- The Lyell Centre, Institute of Life and Earth Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, EH14 4AP, UK
| | - Brooks Alexandra Kaiser
- Department of Sociology, Environmental and Business Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Degnevej 14, 6705 Esbjerg, Denmark
| | | | - Selma T Karuaihe
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, University of Pretoria, Hatfield, Pretoria 0028, South Africa
| | | | | | - Ahmed S Khan
- Department of Agriculture and Agro-Industry, Agribusiness Division, African Development Bank, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
| | - Patrick Kimani
- Coastal and Marine Resource Development, Bamburi, Mombasa, Kenya
| | | | | | - Dawn Kotowicz
- Coastal Resources Center, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA
| | | | - Lian E Kwong
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Steven Lade
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Dan Laffoley
- International Union for Conservation of Nature, World Commission on Protected Areas, Gland, Switzerland
| | - Mimi E Lam
- Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway
| | - Vicky W L Lam
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | | | - Mohd T Latif
- Department of Environmental Science and Natural Resources, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
| | - Philippe Le Billon
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | | | | | - Simon A Levin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, NJ 08544, USA.,High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, NJ 08544, USA
| | - Lisa Levin
- Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Karin E Limburg
- State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - John List
- The Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA
| | - Amanda T Lombard
- Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa
| | - Priscila F M Lopes
- Department of Ecology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | - Heike K Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Tabitha G Mallory
- China Ocean Institute, Seattle, WA 98122 USA.,University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Roshni S Mangar
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Daniel Marszalec
- Department of Economics and Business, International Christian University, 3-10-2 Osawa, Mitaka-shi, Tokyo 181-8585, Japan
| | - Precious Mattah
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Juan Mayorga
- Environmental Market Solutions Lab, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA.,National Geographic Society, Pristine Seas, Washington, DC 20036, USA
| | - Carol McAusland
- Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Douglas J McCauley
- Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
| | - Jeffrey McLean
- Global Health Graduate Programs, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Karly McMullen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Frank Meere
- Sustainable Fisheries Management, Calwell, ACT 2905, Australia
| | - Annie Mejaes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Michael Melnychuk
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
| | - Jaime Mendo
- Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima, Peru
| | - Fiorenza Micheli
- Hopkins Marine Station, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA.,Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Pacific Grove, CA 94305, USA
| | - Katherine Millage
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93117, USA
| | | | | | | | - Mazlin Mokhtar
- Institute for Environment and Development, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
| | - Lance Morgan
- Marine Conservation Institute, Glen Ellen CA 95442, USA
| | - Umi Muawanah
- The Agency for Research and Human Development on Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Indonesia
| | - Gordon R Munro
- Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Grant Murray
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Beaufort, NC 28516, USA
| | - Saleem Mustafa
- Institute for Environment and Development, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
| | | | - Dianne Newell
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Tu Nguyen
- Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Frederik Noack
- Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Adibi M Nor
- International Institute of Public Policy and Management, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Francis K E Nunoo
- Department of Marine and Fisheries Sciences, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, Ghana
| | - David Obura
- Coastal Oceans Research and Development - Indian Ocean (CORDIO) East Africa, Mombasa 80101, Kenya
| | - Tom Okey
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Isaac Okyere
- Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Paul Onyango
- University of Dar es Salaam, Department of Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Maartje Oostdijk
- World Maritime University of the International Maritime Organization, a Specialized Agency of the United Nations, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Polina Orlov
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Henrik Österblom
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Dwight Owens
- Ocean Networks, Canada University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Tessa Owens
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.,The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
| | - Mohammed Oyinlola
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Nathan Pacoureau
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Evgeny Pakhomov
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | | | | | - Aurélien Paulmier
- Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
| | - Daniel Pauly
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Rodrigue Orobiyi Edéya Pèlèbè
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana.,Research Laboratory in Aquaculture and Aquatic Ecotoxicology, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Parakou, Benin
| | | | - Maria G Pennino
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, 36390 Vigo, Spain
| | - Garry Peterson
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Thuy T T Pham
- The Norwegian College of Fishery Science, The Arctic University of Norway, Langnes, 9037, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Evelyn Pinkerton
- School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Nicholas V C Polunin
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
| | - Ekow Prah
- Centre for Coastal Management, Africa Centre of Excellence in Coastal Resilience, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
| | - Jorge Ramírez
- Charles Darwin Foundation, Puerto Ayora, Galápagos, Ecuador
| | - Veronica Relano
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Don Robadue
- Coastal Resources Center, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA
| | - Callum Roberts
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | | | - Katina Roumbedakis
- Cross-Research in Environmental Technologies, Department of Applied Economics, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, 15782, Spain
| | - Enric Sala
- National Geographic, Pristine Seas, Washington, DC 20036, USA
| | | | - Kathleen Segerson
- Department of Economics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
| | - Juan Carlos Seijo
- School of Natural Resources, Universidad Marista de Mérida, Mérida, Yucatán, México
| | - Karen C Seto
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Jason F Shogren
- Department of Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | | | - Gerald Singh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1B 3X5, Canada
| | - Ambre Soszynski
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Dacotah-Victoria Splichalova
- Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Jesper Stage
- Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Luleå University of Technology, 971 87 Luleå, Sweden
| | - Fabrice Stephenson
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Bryce D Stewart
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK
| | - Riad Sultan
- Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Mauritius, Reduit, Mauritius
| | - Curtis Suttle
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Amadou Tall
- The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Wuse, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Nicolás Talloni-Álvarez
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Alessandro Tavoni
- Department of Economics, Universita di Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy.,Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, UK
| | - D R Fraser Taylor
- Geomatics and Cartographic Research Centre, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Louise S L Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Lydia C L Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Jean-Baptiste Thiebot
- National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3, Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518, Japan
| | - Torsten Thiele
- Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Romola V Thumbadoo
- Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
| | | | - Richard S J Tol
- Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9SL, UK.,Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Philippe Tortell
- Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Max Troell
- The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 10405, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - M Selçuk Uzmanoğlu
- Department of Fisheries, Institute of Pure and Applied Sciences, Marmara University, İstanbul, Turkey
| | - Ingrid van Putten
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | | | | | - Colette C C Wabnitz
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Melissa Walsh
- Marine Conservation Finance Consulting and Ocean Finance Initiative, Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines
| | - J P Walsh
- Graduate School of Oceanography, The University of Rhode Island, Bay Campus, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA
| | - Nina Wambiji
- Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Mombasa, Kenya
| | - Elke U Weber
- Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
| | | | | | - Mary S Wisz
- World Maritime University of the International Maritime Organization, a Specialized Agency of the United Nations, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Boris Worm
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Lan Xiao
- Hokkaido University, Institute for the Advancement of Higher Education, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Nobuyuki Yagi
- Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi Bunkyo-ku Tokyo, Japan
| | - Satoshi Yamazaki
- Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS 7005, Australia
| | - Hong Yang
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, UK, RG6 6AB, UK
| | - Dirk Zeller
- School of Biological Sciences & Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Levin SA, Anderies JM, Adger N, Barrett S, Bennett EM, Cardenas JC, Carpenter SR, Crépin AS, Ehrlich P, Fischer J, Folke C, Kautsky N, Kling C, Nyborg K, Polasky S, Scheffer M, Segerson K, Shogren J, van den Bergh J, Walker B, Weber EU, Wilen J. Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond. Ecosystems 2021; 25:697-711. [PMID: 34512142 PMCID: PMC8422834 DOI: 10.1007/s10021-021-00680-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2020] [Accepted: 06/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but "once-in-a-century" weather events are also becoming more common, leading to erosion, wildfire and even volcanic events that change ecosystems and disturbance regimes, threaten the sustainability of our life-support systems, and challenge the robustness and resilience of societies. Dealing with extremes will require new approaches and large-scale collective action. Preemptive measures can increase general resilience, a first line of protection, while more specific reactive responses are developed. Preemptive measures also can minimize the negative effects of events that cannot be avoided. In this paper, we first explore approaches to prevention, mitigation and adaptation, drawing inspiration from how evolutionary challenges have made biological systems robust and resilient, and from the general theory of complex adaptive systems. We argue further that proactive steps that go beyond will be necessary to reduce unacceptable consequences.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Simon A Levin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, 106A Guyot Hall, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - John M Anderies
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287 USA
| | - Neil Adger
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ UK
| | - Scott Barrett
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York 10025 USA.,The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York 10025 USA
| | - Elena M Bennett
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Québec, H9X 3V9 Canada
| | | | - Stephen R Carpenter
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Anne-Sophie Crépin
- The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-10405 Stockholm, Sweden.,Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Paul Ehrlich
- Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 USA
| | - Joern Fischer
- Faculty of Sustainability, Leuphana University, 21335 Lueneburg, Germany
| | - Carl Folke
- The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-10405 Stockholm, Sweden.,Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nils Kautsky
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Catherine Kling
- Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853 USA
| | - Karine Nyborg
- Department of Economics, University of Oslo, 0317 Oslo, Norway
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota 55108 USA
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Wageningen, 6708PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Kathleen Segerson
- Department of Economics, University of Connecticut, Connecticut, USA
| | - Jason Shogren
- Department of Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071 USA
| | - Jeroen van den Bergh
- ICREA, Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, University Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Cerdanyola), Spain.,VU University Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Brian Walker
- CSIRO Land and Water, Australian Capital Territory Australia, Canberra, 2601 Australia
| | - Elke U Weber
- Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 USA.,School for Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544 USA.,Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 USA
| | - James Wilen
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, California 95616 USA
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Domingo NGG, Balasubramanian S, Thakrar SK, Clark MA, Adams PJ, Marshall JD, Muller NZ, Pandis SN, Polasky S, Robinson AL, Tessum CW, Tilman D, Tschofen P, Hill JD. Air quality-related health damages of food. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2013637118. [PMID: 33972419 PMCID: PMC8158015 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013637118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Agriculture is a major contributor to air pollution, the largest environmental risk factor for mortality in the United States and worldwide. It is largely unknown, however, how individual foods or entire diets affect human health via poor air quality. We show how food production negatively impacts human health by increasing atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and we identify ways to reduce these negative impacts of agriculture. We quantify the air quality-related health damages attributable to 95 agricultural commodities and 67 final food products, which encompass >99% of agricultural production in the United States. Agricultural production in the United States results in 17,900 annual air quality-related deaths, 15,900 of which are from food production. Of those, 80% are attributable to animal-based foods, both directly from animal production and indirectly from growing animal feed. On-farm interventions can reduce PM2.5-related mortality by 50%, including improved livestock waste management and fertilizer application practices that reduce emissions of ammonia, a secondary PM2.5 precursor, and improved crop and animal production practices that reduce primary PM2.5 emissions from tillage, field burning, livestock dust, and machinery. Dietary shifts toward more plant-based foods that maintain protein intake and other nutritional needs could reduce agricultural air quality-related mortality by 68 to 83%. In sum, improved livestock and fertilization practices, and dietary shifts could greatly decrease the health impacts of agriculture caused by its contribution to reduced air quality.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nina G G Domingo
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Srinidhi Balasubramanian
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Sumil K Thakrar
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Michael A Clark
- Oxford Martin School, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7DQ, United Kingdom
| | - Peter J Adams
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Julian D Marshall
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Nicholas Z Muller
- Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Spyros N Pandis
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Allen L Robinson
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Christopher W Tessum
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801
| | - David Tilman
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Peter Tschofen
- Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | - Jason D Hill
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108;
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Abstract
Surface water is among Earth's most important resources. Yet, benefit-cost studies often report that the costs of water quality protection exceed its benefits. One possible reason for this seeming paradox is that often only a narrow range of local water quality benefits are considered. In particular, the climate damages from water pollution have rarely been quantified. Recent advances in global water science allow the computation of the global methane emission from lakes caused by human nutrient enrichment (eutrophication). Here, we estimate the present value of the global social cost of eutrophication-driven methane emissions from lakes between 2015 and 2050 to be $7.5-$81 trillion (2015 $US), and in a case-study for one well-studied lake (Lake Erie) we find the global value of avoiding eutrophication exceeds local values of either beach use or sport fishing by 10-fold.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- John A Downing
- Minnesota Sea Grant, University of Minnesota, Duluth, MN, 55812-1198, USA.
- Department of Biology, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, 55812, USA.
- Large Lakes Observatory, Research Lab Building, Duluth, MN, 55812, USA.
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Ecology, Department of Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Sheila M Olmstead
- Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78713-8925, USA
- Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 20036, USA
| | - Stephen C Newbold
- Department of Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, 82071, USA
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Nielsen KS, Marteau TM, Bauer JM, Bradbury RB, Broad S, Burgess G, Burgman M, Byerly H, Clayton S, Espelosin D, Ferraro PJ, Fisher B, Garnett EE, Jones JPG, Otieno M, Polasky S, Ricketts TH, Trevelyan R, van der Linden S, Veríssimo D, Balmford A. Biodiversity conservation as a promising frontier for behavioural science. Nat Hum Behav 2021; 5:550-556. [PMID: 33986518 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01109-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 03/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Human activities are degrading ecosystems worldwide, posing existential threats for biodiversity and humankind. Slowing and reversing this degradation will require profound and widespread changes to human behaviour. Behavioural scientists are therefore well placed to contribute intellectual leadership in this area. This Perspective aims to stimulate a marked increase in the amount and breadth of behavioural research addressing this challenge. First, we describe the importance of the biodiversity crisis for human and non-human prosperity and the central role of human behaviour in reversing this decline. Next, we discuss key gaps in our understanding of how to achieve behaviour change for biodiversity conservation and suggest how to identify key behaviour changes and actors capable of improving biodiversity outcomes. Finally, we outline the core components for building a robust evidence base and suggest priority research questions for behavioural scientists to explore in opening a new frontier of behavioural science for the benefit of nature and human wellbeing.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Theresa M Marteau
- Behaviour and Health Research Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Jan M Bauer
- Department of Management, Society and Communication, Copenhagen Business School, Frederiksberg, Denmark
| | - Richard B Bradbury
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Centre for Conservation Science, RSPB, Sandy, UK
| | | | | | - Mark Burgman
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Hilary Byerly
- Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Susan Clayton
- Psychology Department, The College of Wooster, Wooster, OH, USA
| | - Dulce Espelosin
- Center for Behavior and the Environment, Rare, Querétaro, México
| | - Paul J Ferraro
- Carey Business School and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, a joint department of the Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Brendan Fisher
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Environmental Program, Rubinstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | - Emma E Garnett
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Julia P G Jones
- College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Bangor University, Bangor, UK
| | - Mark Otieno
- Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
- Department of Agricultural Resource Management, University of Embu, Embu, Kenya
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
- Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA
| | - Taylor H Ricketts
- Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
- Environmental Program, Rubinstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA
| | | | | | | | - Andrew Balmford
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Folke C, Polasky S, Rockström J, Galaz V, Westley F, Lamont M, Scheffer M, Österblom H, Carpenter SR, Chapin FS, Seto KC, Weber EU, Crona BI, Daily GC, Dasgupta P, Gaffney O, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Levin SA, Lubchenco J, Steffen W, Walker BH. Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere. Ambio 2021; 50:834-869. [PMID: 33715097 PMCID: PMC7955950 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01544-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2020] [Revised: 01/31/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2021] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carl Folke
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Programme (GEDB), Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | | | - Johan Rockström
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Victor Galaz
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | - Marten Scheffer
- Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Henrik Österblom
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | | | | | - Beatrice I Crona
- Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Programme (GEDB), Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | - Owen Gaffney
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Line J Gordon
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Holger Hoff
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Will Steffen
- Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | |
Collapse
|
19
|
Polasky S, Crépin AS, Biggs R(O, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Peterson G, Scheffer M, Barrett S, Daily G, Ehrlich P, Howarth RB, Hughes T, Levin SA, Shogren JF, Troell M, Walker B, Xepapadeas A. Corridors of Clarity: Four Principles to Overcome Uncertainty Paralysis in the Anthropocene. Bioscience 2020; 70:1139-1144. [PMID: 33376456 PMCID: PMC7750100 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biaa115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Polasky
- Departments of Applied Economics and Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
| | - Anne-Sophie Crépin
- Deputy director, Carl Folke is the director, and Max Troell is a researcher, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Reinette (Oonsie) Biggs
- codirector of the Centre for Complex Systems in Transition and holds a chair in social–ecological systems and resilience, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | | | - Carl Folke
- Departments of Applied Economics and Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
| | - Garry Peterson
- Sustainability science, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Environmental sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Scott Barrett
- Natural resource economics, Columbia University, New York, New York
| | | | - Paul Ehrlich
- Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | | | - Terry Hughes
- James Cook University, Townsville, North Queensland, Australia
| | - Simon A Levin
- Ecology and evolutionary biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
| | | | - Max Troell
- Departments of Applied Economics and Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
| | - Brian Walker
- Ecology, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, Australia
| | - Anastasios Xepapadeas
- Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece, and at the University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Chaplin-Kramer R, Sharp RP, Weil C, Bennett EM, Pascual U, Arkema KK, Brauman KA, Bryant BP, Guerry AD, Haddad NM, Hamann M, Hamel P, Johnson JA, Mandle L, Pereira HM, Polasky S, Ruckelshaus M, Shaw MR, Silver JM, Vogl AL, Daily GC. Global modeling of nature's contributions to people. Science 2020; 366:255-258. [PMID: 31601772 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw3372] [Citation(s) in RCA: 102] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2019] [Indexed: 01/31/2023]
Abstract
The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. .,Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Richard P Sharp
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Charlotte Weil
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Elena M Bennett
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Québec H9X 3V9, Canada
| | - Unai Pascual
- Basque Centre for Climate Change, Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940 Leioa, Bilbao, Spain.,Basque Foundation for Science, Ikerbasque, 48013 Bilbao, Spain.,Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Katie K Arkema
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Kate A Brauman
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Benjamin P Bryant
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,Water in the West, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Anne D Guerry
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Nick M Haddad
- Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Integrative Biology, Hickory Corners, MI 49060, USA
| | - Maike Hamann
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.,Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
| | - Perrine Hamel
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Justin A Johnson
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Lisa Mandle
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Henrique M Pereira
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108 Halle, Germany.,Institut für Biologie, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06112 Halle, Germany.,CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)-InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Mary Ruckelshaus
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | | | - Jessica M Silver
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Adrian L Vogl
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Gretchen C Daily
- Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Díaz S, Settele J, Brondizio E, Ngo HT, Pfaff A, Polasky S, Agard J, Arneth A, Balvanera P, Brauman KA, Butchart SHM, Chan KMA, Garibaldi LA, Ichii K, Liu J, Subramanian SM, Midgley GF, Miloslavich P, Molnár Z, Obura D, Purvis A, Razzaque J, Reyers B, Chowdhury RR, Shin YJ, Visseren-Hamakers I, Willis KJ, Zayas CN. Investments' role in ecosystem degradation-Response. Science 2020; 368:377. [PMID: 32327593 DOI: 10.1126/science.abb6019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
|
22
|
Barrett S, Dasgupta A, Dasgupta P, Adger WN, Anderies J, van den Bergh J, Bledsoe C, Bongaarts J, Carpenter S, Chapin FS, Crépin AS, Daily G, Ehrlich P, Folke C, Kautsky N, Lambin EF, Levin SA, Mäler KG, Naylor R, Nyborg K, Polasky S, Scheffer M, Shogren J, Jørgensen PS, Walker B, Wilen J. Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:6300-6307. [PMID: 32165543 PMCID: PMC7104011 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1909857117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We consider two aspects of the human enterprise that profoundly affect the global environment: population and consumption. We show that fertility and consumption behavior harbor a class of externalities that have not been much noted in the literature. Both are driven in part by attitudes and preferences that are not egoistic but socially embedded; that is, each household's decisions are influenced by the decisions made by others. In a famous paper, Garrett Hardin [G. Hardin, Science 162, 1243-1248 (1968)] drew attention to overpopulation and concluded that the solution lay in people "abandoning the freedom to breed." That human attitudes and practices are socially embedded suggests that it is possible for people to reduce their fertility rates and consumption demands without experiencing a loss in wellbeing. We focus on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and consumption in the rich world and argue that bottom-up social mechanisms rather than top-down government interventions are better placed to bring about those ecologically desirable changes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Scott Barrett
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
- Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - Aisha Dasgupta
- Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017
| | - Partha Dasgupta
- Faculty of Economics, Cambridge University, CB3 9DD Cambridge, United Kingdom;
| | - W Neil Adger
- Geography, College of Life and Environmental Science, University of Exeter, EX4 4RJ Exeter, United Kingdom
| | - John Anderies
- School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287
| | - Jeroen van den Bergh
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, 08010 Barcelona, Spain
- School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Caroline Bledsoe
- Anthropology Department, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208
| | | | | | - F Stuart Chapin
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775
| | - Anne-Sophie Crépin
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-105 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Gretchen Daily
- Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Paul Ehrlich
- Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Carl Folke
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-105 05 Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nils Kautsky
- Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Eric F Lambin
- School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
- George Lemaître Earth and Climate Research Centre, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Simon A Levin
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NY 08544
| | - Karl-Göran Mäler
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-105 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Rosamond Naylor
- Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94304
| | - Karine Nyborg
- Department of Economics, University of Oslo, 0317 Oslo, Norway
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Marten Scheffer
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jason Shogren
- Department of Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071
| | - Peter Søgaard Jørgensen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 104 05 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Brian Walker
- Land and Water, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
| | - James Wilen
- Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Díaz S, Settele J, Brondízio ES, Ngo HT, Agard J, Arneth A, Balvanera P, Brauman KA, Butchart SHM, Chan KMA, Garibaldi LA, Ichii K, Liu J, Subramanian SM, Midgley GF, Miloslavich P, Molnár Z, Obura D, Pfaff A, Polasky S, Purvis A, Razzaque J, Reyers B, Chowdhury RR, Shin YJ, Visseren-Hamakers I, Willis KJ, Zayas CN. Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change. Science 2019. [PMID: 31831642 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw3100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature's benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend-nature and its contributions to people-is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature's deterioration.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sandra Díaz
- Consejo Nacional de investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (IMBIV), Córdoba, Argentina.
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales,Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Casilla de Correo 495, 5000, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - Josef Settele
- Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Halle, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research-iDiv, Leipzig, Germany
| | | | - Hien T Ngo
- Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Secretariat, United Nations Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
| | - John Agard
- Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Almut Arneth
- Atmospheric Environmental Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Patricia Balvanera
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, México
| | - Kate A Brauman
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 325 Learning and Environmental Sciences, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Kai M A Chan
- Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Lucas A Garibaldi
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Mitre 630, CP 8400, San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina
| | - Kazuhito Ichii
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, 1-33,Yayoi-cho, Inage-ku, Chiba, 263-852, Japan
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-0053, Japan
| | - Jianguo Liu
- Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 115 Manly Miles Building, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - Suneetha M Subramanian
- United Nations University (UNU)-Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Tokyo, Japan
- UNU-International Institute for Global Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Guy F Midgley
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, P/Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa
| | - Patricia Miloslavich
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- Departamento de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Zsolt Molnár
- Centre for Ecological Research Institute of Ecology and Botany, Magyar Tudományos Akadémia, H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - David Obura
- Coastal Oceans Research and Development-Indian Ocean (CORDIO) East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya
- Global Climate Institute, The University of Queensland, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Alexander Pfaff
- Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
- Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Jona Razzaque
- Department of Law, Faculty of Business and Law, University of the West of England, Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Belinda Reyers
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Department of Conservation Ecology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, 7602, South Africa
| | | | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation (MARBEC) Research Unit, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Department of Biological Sciences, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Ingrid Visseren-Hamakers
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
- Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Katherine J Willis
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, TW9 3AE, UK
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Cynthia N Zayas
- Center for International Studies University of the Philippines, Diliman, Philippines
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Díaz S, Settele J, Brondízio ES, Ngo HT, Agard J, Arneth A, Balvanera P, Brauman KA, Butchart SHM, Chan KMA, Garibaldi LA, Ichii K, Liu J, Subramanian SM, Midgley GF, Miloslavich P, Molnár Z, Obura D, Pfaff A, Polasky S, Purvis A, Razzaque J, Reyers B, Chowdhury RR, Shin YJ, Visseren-Hamakers I, Willis KJ, Zayas CN. Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change. Science 2019. [PMID: 31831642 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw.3100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/16/2023]
Abstract
The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature's benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend-nature and its contributions to people-is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature's deterioration.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sandra Díaz
- Consejo Nacional de investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (IMBIV), Córdoba, Argentina.
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales,Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Casilla de Correo 495, 5000, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - Josef Settele
- Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Halle, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research-iDiv, Leipzig, Germany
| | | | - Hien T Ngo
- Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Secretariat, United Nations Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
| | - John Agard
- Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Almut Arneth
- Atmospheric Environmental Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Patricia Balvanera
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, México
| | - Kate A Brauman
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 325 Learning and Environmental Sciences, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Kai M A Chan
- Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Lucas A Garibaldi
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Mitre 630, CP 8400, San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina
| | - Kazuhito Ichii
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, 1-33,Yayoi-cho, Inage-ku, Chiba, 263-852, Japan
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-0053, Japan
| | - Jianguo Liu
- Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 115 Manly Miles Building, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - Suneetha M Subramanian
- United Nations University (UNU)-Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Tokyo, Japan
- UNU-International Institute for Global Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Guy F Midgley
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, P/Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa
| | - Patricia Miloslavich
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- Departamento de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Zsolt Molnár
- Centre for Ecological Research Institute of Ecology and Botany, Magyar Tudományos Akadémia, H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - David Obura
- Coastal Oceans Research and Development-Indian Ocean (CORDIO) East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya
- Global Climate Institute, The University of Queensland, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Alexander Pfaff
- Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
- Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Jona Razzaque
- Department of Law, Faculty of Business and Law, University of the West of England, Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Belinda Reyers
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Department of Conservation Ecology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, 7602, South Africa
| | | | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation (MARBEC) Research Unit, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Department of Biological Sciences, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Ingrid Visseren-Hamakers
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
- Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Katherine J Willis
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, TW9 3AE, UK
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Cynthia N Zayas
- Center for International Studies University of the Philippines, Diliman, Philippines
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Díaz S, Settele J, Brondízio ES, Ngo HT, Agard J, Arneth A, Balvanera P, Brauman KA, Butchart SHM, Chan KMA, Garibaldi LA, Ichii K, Liu J, Subramanian SM, Midgley GF, Miloslavich P, Molnár Z, Obura D, Pfaff A, Polasky S, Purvis A, Razzaque J, Reyers B, Chowdhury RR, Shin YJ, Visseren-Hamakers I, Willis KJ, Zayas CN. Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change. Science 2019; 366:366/6471/eaax3100. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aax3100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 691] [Impact Index Per Article: 138.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2019] [Accepted: 11/11/2019] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature’s benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend—nature and its contributions to people—is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature’s deterioration.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sandra Díaz
- Consejo Nacional de investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (IMBIV), Córdoba, Argentina
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales,Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Casilla de Correo 495, 5000, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - Josef Settele
- Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ, Halle, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research–iDiv, Leipzig, Germany
| | | | - Hien T. Ngo
- Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Secretariat, United Nations Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, D-53113 Bonn, Germany
| | - John Agard
- Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Almut Arneth
- Atmospheric Environmental Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Patricia Balvanera
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58190, Morelia, Michoacán, México
| | - Kate A. Brauman
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 325 Learning and Environmental Sciences, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Stuart H. M. Butchart
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Kai M. A. Chan
- Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Lucas A. Garibaldi
- Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Mitre 630, CP 8400, San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina
| | - Kazuhito Ichii
- Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, 1-33,Yayoi-cho, Inage-ku, Chiba, 263-852, Japan
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-0053, Japan
| | - Jianguo Liu
- Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 115 Manly Miles Building, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA
| | - Suneetha M. Subramanian
- United Nations University (UNU)–Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Tokyo, Japan
- UNU–International Institute for Global Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Guy F. Midgley
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, P/Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa
| | - Patricia Miloslavich
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)–Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- Departamento de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad Simón Bolívar, Caracas, Venezuela
| | - Zsolt Molnár
- Centre for Ecological Research Institute of Ecology and Botany, Magyar Tudományos Akadémia, H-2163 Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - David Obura
- Coastal Oceans Research and Development–Indian Ocean (CORDIO) East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya
- Global Climate Institute, The University of Queensland, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Alexander Pfaff
- Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Andy Purvis
- Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
- Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Jona Razzaque
- Department of Law, Faculty of Business and Law, University of the West of England, Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Belinda Reyers
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden
- Department of Conservation Ecology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, 7602, South Africa
| | | | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation (MARBEC) Research Unit, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l’Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Department of Biological Sciences, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Ingrid Visseren-Hamakers
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
- Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Katherine J. Willis
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, TW9 3AE, UK
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Cynthia N. Zayas
- Center for International Studies University of the Philippines, Diliman, Philippines
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Bagstad KJ, Ingram JC, Lange G, Masozera M, Ancona ZH, Bana M, Kagabo D, Musana B, Nabahungu NL, Rukundo E, Rutebuka E, Polasky S, Rugege D, Uwera C. Towards ecosystem accounts for Rwanda: Tracking 25 years of change in flows and potential supply of ecosystem services. People and Nature 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kenneth J. Bagstad
- Geosciences & Environmental Change Science Center U.S. Geological Survey Denver CO USA
- Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Partnership The World Bank Washington DC USA
| | | | - Glenn‐Marie Lange
- Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services (WAVES) Partnership The World Bank Washington DC USA
| | | | - Zachary H. Ancona
- Geosciences & Environmental Change Science Center U.S. Geological Survey Denver CO USA
| | | | - Desire Kagabo
- CIAT‐CGIAR Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security Kigali Rwanda
| | - Bernard Musana
- Rwanda Agriculture and Animal Resources Development Board (RAB) Kigali Rwanda
| | | | - Emmanuel Rukundo
- State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation School of Environment Beijing Normal University Beijing China
| | - Evariste Rutebuka
- Department of Environmental Management Institute of Life and Earth Science Pan‐African University, University of Ibadan Ibadan Nigeria
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
27
|
Malcom J, Schwartz MW, Evansen M, Ripple WJ, Polasky S, Gerber LR, Lovejoy TE, Talbot LM, Miller JRB. Solve the biodiversity crisis with funding. Science 2019; 365:1256. [PMID: 31604231 DOI: 10.1126/science.aay9839] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jacob Malcom
- Center for Conservation Innovation, Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, DC 20036, USA
| | - Mark W Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Megan Evansen
- Center for Conservation Innovation, Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, DC 20036, USA
| | - William J Ripple
- Department of Forestry Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Leah R Gerber
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA
| | - Thomas E Lovejoy
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
| | - Lee M Talbot
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
| | - Jennifer R B Miller
- Center for Conservation Innovation, Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, DC 20036, USA.
| | | |
Collapse
|
28
|
Shyamsundar P, Springer NP, Tallis H, Polasky S, Jat ML, Sidhu HS, Krishnapriya PP, Skiba N, Ginn W, Ahuja V, Cummins J, Datta I, Dholakia HH, Dixon J, Gerard B, Gupta R, Hellmann J, Jadhav A, Jat HS, Keil A, Ladha JK, Lopez-Ridaura S, Nandrajog SP, Paul S, Ritter A, Sharma PC, Singh R, Singh D, Somanathan R. Fields on fire: Alternatives to crop residue burning in India. Science 2019; 365:536-538. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw4085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
|
29
|
Soterroni AC, Ramos FM, Mosnier A, Fargione J, Andrade PR, Baumgarten L, Pirker J, Obersteiner M, Kraxner F, Câmara G, Carvalho AXY, Polasky S. Expanding the Soy Moratorium to Brazil's Cerrado. Sci Adv 2019; 5:eaav7336. [PMID: 31328157 PMCID: PMC6636994 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav7336] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2018] [Accepted: 06/13/2019] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
The Cerrado biome in Brazil is a tropical savanna and an important global biodiversity hot spot. Today, only a fraction of its original area remains undisturbed, and this habitat is at risk of conversion to agriculture, especially to soybeans. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of expanding the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) from the Brazilian Amazon to the Cerrado biome. The SoyM expansion to the Cerrado would prevent the direct conversion of 3.6 million ha of native vegetation to soybeans by 2050. Nationally, this would require a reduction in soybean area of approximately 2%. Relative risk of future native vegetation conversion for soybeans would be driven by the Brazilian domestic market, China, and the European Union. We conclude that, to preserve the Cerrado's biodiversity and ecosystem services, urgent action is required, including a zero native vegetation conversion agreement such as the SoyM.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Aline C. Soterroni
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | | | - Aline Mosnier
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 19 Rue Bergère, 75009 Paris, France
| | | | - Pedro R. Andrade
- National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | | | - Johannes Pirker
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- KU Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200E, B-3001 Leuven, Heverlee, Belgium
| | | | - Florian Kraxner
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Gilberto Câmara
- National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Alexandre X. Y. Carvalho
- Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brasília, Brazil
- Caixa Econômica Federal, Brasília, Brazil
| | | |
Collapse
|
30
|
Tessum CW, Apte JS, Goodkind AL, Muller NZ, Mullins KA, Paolella DA, Polasky S, Springer NP, Thakrar SK, Marshall JD, Hill JD. Inequity in consumption of goods and services adds to racial-ethnic disparities in air pollution exposure. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:6001-6006. [PMID: 30858319 PMCID: PMC6442600 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1818859116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 209] [Impact Index Per Article: 41.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution exposure is the largest environmental health risk factor in the United States. Here, we link PM2.5 exposure to the human activities responsible for PM2.5 pollution. We use these results to explore "pollution inequity": the difference between the environmental health damage caused by a racial-ethnic group and the damage that group experiences. We show that, in the United States, PM2.5 exposure is disproportionately caused by consumption of goods and services mainly by the non-Hispanic white majority, but disproportionately inhaled by black and Hispanic minorities. On average, non-Hispanic whites experience a "pollution advantage": They experience ∼17% less air pollution exposure than is caused by their consumption. Blacks and Hispanics on average bear a "pollution burden" of 56% and 63% excess exposure, respectively, relative to the exposure caused by their consumption. The total disparity is caused as much by how much people consume as by how much pollution they breathe. Differences in the types of goods and services consumed by each group are less important. PM2.5 exposures declined ∼50% during 2002-2015 for all three racial-ethnic groups, but pollution inequity has remained high.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Christopher W Tessum
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Joshua S Apte
- Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
| | - Andrew L Goodkind
- Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131
| | - Nicholas Z Muller
- Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
| | | | - David A Paolella
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | | | - Sumil K Thakrar
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Julian D Marshall
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
| | - Jason D Hill
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Tallis H, Polasky S, Hellmann J, Springer NP, Biske R, DeGeus D, Dell R, Doane M, Downes L, Goldstein J, Hodgman T, Johnson K, Luby I, Pennington D, Reuter M, Segerson K, Stark I, Stark J, Vollmer-Sanders C, Weaver SK. Five financial incentives to revive the Gulf of Mexico dead zone and Mississippi basin soils. J Environ Manage 2019; 233:30-38. [PMID: 30554022 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2018] [Revised: 11/06/2018] [Accepted: 11/28/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
A central challenge in the Mississippi River Basin is how to continue to support profitable agricultural production, provide water supply, flood control, transportation, and other benefits, while reducing the current burden of environmental degradation. Several practices have been shown to reduce nutrient runoff and water pollution, and improve soil fertility, while often yielding profits for farmers. Yet many of these beneficial practices remain underutilized. Participants at an expert workshop identified five candidate financial mechanisms that could increase adoption of these beneficial farming practices in four focal Midwest states in the next five years: crop insurance premium subsidies, transformation of the private service provider business model, expansion and targeting of 2019 U.S. Farm Bill funding, development of new state funds, and direction of post-disaster federal funds towards habitat restoration, particularly in floodplains. This study provides rough approximations of the change in nutrient runoff and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the annualized costs, and the nutrient and GHG reductions per dollar likely to result from deployment of each financial mechanism. Based upon these approximations, the adoption of these programs could reduce annual nitrate flows at the outlet of the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Basins by 25%, surpassing the intermediate 2025 target (20% reduction) and achieving more than half of the long-term target (45% reduction) set by the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force. These approximations also illustrate that these five mechanisms could provide the same GHG reductions (∼43 Tg CO2e yr-1) as taking 12 coal-fired energy plants offline. The total cost of these five financial mechanisms is estimated at ∼$2.6 billion, or 64 g of nitrates and ∼17 kg of CO2e per dollar spent. These proposed solutions all face political, financial, cultural or institutional challenges, but with industry support, creative political action, and continued communication of both private and public benefits, they can create meaningful nutrient reductions and rebuild soils by 2022.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA; Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota St. Paul, MN, USA
| | - Jessica Hellmann
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA
| | | | - Rich Biske
- The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ian Luby
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota St. Paul, MN, USA
| | | | | | | | - Isis Stark
- The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA
| | - John Stark
- The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA, USA
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
32
|
Runge CA, Plantinga AJ, Larsen AE, Naugle DE, Helmstedt KJ, Polasky S, Donnelly JP, Smith JT, Lark TJ, Lawler JJ, Martinuzzi S, Fargione J. Unintended habitat loss on private land from grazing restrictions on public rangelands. J Appl Ecol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Claire A. Runge
- National Center for Ecological Analysis & SynthesisUniversity of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California
| | - Andrew J. Plantinga
- Bren School of Environmental Science and ManagementUniversity of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California
| | - Ashley E. Larsen
- Bren School of Environmental Science and ManagementUniversity of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California
| | - David E. Naugle
- Wildlife Biology ProgramUniversity of Montana Missoula Montana
| | - Kate J. Helmstedt
- School of Mathematical SciencesQueensland University of Technology Brisbane Qld Australia
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied EconomicsUniversity of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota
| | - J. Patrick Donnelly
- Intermountain West Joint VentureUnited States Fish and Wildlife Service Missoula Montana
| | - Joseph T. Smith
- Wildlife Biology ProgramUniversity of Montana Missoula Montana
| | - Tyler J. Lark
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE)University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin
| | - Joshua J. Lawler
- School of Environmental and Forest SciencesUniversity of Washington Seattle Washington
| | - Sebastian Martinuzzi
- SILVIS LabDepartment of Forest and Wildlife EcologyUniversity of Wisconsin Madison Wisconsin
| | | |
Collapse
|
33
|
Abstract
Considerable outside funding will be required to overcome the financial shortfalls faced by most of Africa's protected areas. Given limited levels of external support, it will be essential to allocate these funds wisely. While most recent studies on conservation triage have recommended prioritizing reserves with the highest remaining conservation value (the "last best places"), such investments are complicated by the fact that these same reserves often attract the greatest revenues from ecotourism and thus the most attention from corrupt local governments. Alternatively, philanthropic organizations might achieve greater returns from investing in the management of neglected areas with lower current conservation value but with less financial leakage from corruption. We outline here how high levels of corruption could favor a strategy that shifts investments away from the last best places.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Craig Packer
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, South Africa
- * E-mail:
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
34
|
Qiu J, Game ET, Tallis H, Olander LP, Glew L, Kagan JS, Kalies EL, Michanowicz D, Phelan J, Polasky S, Reed J, Sills EO, Urban D, Weaver SK. Evidence-Based Causal Chains for Linking Health, Development, and Conservation Actions. Bioscience 2018; 68:182-193. [PMID: 29988312 PMCID: PMC6019009 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Sustainability challenges for nature and people are complex and interconnected, such that effective solutions require approaches and a common theory of change that bridge disparate disciplines and sectors. Causal chains offer promising approaches to achieving an integrated understanding of how actions affect ecosystems, the goods and services they provide, and ultimately, human well-being. Although causal chains and their variants are common tools across disciplines, their use remains highly inconsistent, limiting their ability to support and create a shared evidence base for joint actions. In this article, we present the foundational concepts and guidance of causal chains linking disciplines and sectors that do not often intersect to elucidate the effects of actions on ecosystems and society. We further discuss considerations for establishing and implementing causal chains, including nonlinearity, trade-offs and synergies, heterogeneity, scale, and confounding factors. Finally, we highlight the science, practice, and policy implications of causal chains to address real-world linked human-nature challenges.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jiangxiao Qiu
- School of Forest Resources and Conservation at the Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center at the University of Florida, in Davie, Florida
| | - Edward T Game
- The Nature Conservancy, in Arlington, Virginia
- University of Queensland, in Brisbane, Australia
| | - Heather Tallis
- The Nature Conservancy, in Arlington, Virginia
- University of California, in Santa Cruz, California
| | - Lydia P Olander
- Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University, in Durham, North Carolina
| | | | - James S Kagan
- Institute for Natural Resources at Oregon State University, in Corvallis
- Portland State University, in Portland, Oregon
| | | | - Drew Michanowicz
- Department of Environmental Health at Harvard University, in Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Jennifer Phelan
- National Atmospheric Deposition Program—Critical Loads of Atmospheric Deposition, at the University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, and Research Triangle Institute International, in North Carolina
| | - Stephen Polasky
- College of Biological Sciences and Department of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota, in St. Paul
| | - James Reed
- Center for International Forestry Research, in Bogor, Indonesia, and with the Lancaster Environment Centre at the University of Lancaster, in the United Kingdom
| | - Erin O Sills
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources at North Carolina State University, in Raleigh
| | - Dean Urban
- Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University, in Durham, North Carolina
| | | |
Collapse
|
35
|
Díaz S, Pascual U, Stenseke M, Martín-López B, Watson RT, Molnár Z, Hill R, Chan KMA, Baste IA, Brauman KA, Polasky S, Church A, Lonsdale M, Larigauderie A, Leadley PW, van Oudenhoven APE, van der Plaat F, Schröter M, Lavorel S, Aumeeruddy-Thomas Y, Bukvareva E, Davies K, Demissew S, Erpul G, Failler P, Guerra CA, Hewitt CL, Keune H, Lindley S, Shirayama Y. Assessing nature's contributions to people. Science 2018. [PMID: 29348221 DOI: 10.1126/science:aap8826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Sandra Díaz
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials.
| | - Unai Pascual
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials.
| | - Marie Stenseke
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Berta Martín-López
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Robert T Watson
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Zsolt Molnár
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Rosemary Hill
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Kai M A Chan
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Ivar A Baste
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Kate A Brauman
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Stephen Polasky
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Andrew Church
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Mark Lonsdale
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Anne Larigauderie
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Paul W Leadley
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | | | | | - Matthias Schröter
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Sandra Lavorel
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | | | - Elena Bukvareva
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Kirsten Davies
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Sebsebe Demissew
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Gunay Erpul
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Pierre Failler
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Chad L Hewitt
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Hans Keune
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Sarah Lindley
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Yoshihisa Shirayama
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| |
Collapse
|
36
|
Díaz S, Pascual U, Stenseke M, Martín-López B, Watson RT, Molnár Z, Hill R, Chan KMA, Baste IA, Brauman KA, Polasky S, Church A, Lonsdale M, Larigauderie A, Leadley PW, van Oudenhoven APE, van der Plaat F, Schröter M, Lavorel S, Aumeeruddy-Thomas Y, Bukvareva E, Davies K, Demissew S, Erpul G, Failler P, Guerra CA, Hewitt CL, Keune H, Lindley S, Shirayama Y. Assessing nature's contributions to people. Science 2018; 359:270-272. [PMID: 29348221 DOI: 10.1126/science.aap8826] [Citation(s) in RCA: 543] [Impact Index Per Article: 90.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sandra Díaz
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials.
| | - Unai Pascual
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials.
| | - Marie Stenseke
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Berta Martín-López
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Robert T Watson
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Zsolt Molnár
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Rosemary Hill
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Kai M A Chan
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Ivar A Baste
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Kate A Brauman
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Stephen Polasky
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Andrew Church
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Mark Lonsdale
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Anne Larigauderie
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Paul W Leadley
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | | | | | - Matthias Schröter
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Sandra Lavorel
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | | | - Elena Bukvareva
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Kirsten Davies
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Sebsebe Demissew
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Gunay Erpul
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Pierre Failler
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Chad L Hewitt
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Hans Keune
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Sarah Lindley
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| | - Yoshihisa Shirayama
- A complete listing of affiliations is provided in the supplementary materials
| |
Collapse
|
37
|
Burgess MG, Costello C, Fredston-Hermann A, Pinsky ML, Gaines SD, Tilman D, Polasky S. Range contraction enables harvesting to extinction. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:3945-3950. [PMID: 28351981 PMCID: PMC5393227 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1607551114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Economic incentives to harvest a species usually diminish as its abundance declines, because harvest costs increase. This prevents harvesting to extinction. A known exception can occur if consumer demand causes a declining species' harvest price to rise faster than costs. This threat may affect rare and valuable species, such as large land mammals, sturgeons, and bluefin tunas. We analyze a similar but underappreciated threat, which arises when the geographic area (range) occupied by a species contracts as its abundance declines. Range contractions maintain the local densities of declining populations, which facilitates harvesting to extinction by preventing abundance declines from causing harvest costs to rise. Factors causing such range contractions include schooling, herding, or flocking behaviors-which, ironically, can be predator-avoidance adaptations; patchy environments; habitat loss; and climate change. We use a simple model to identify combinations of range contractions and price increases capable of causing extinction from profitable overharvesting, and we compare these to an empirical review. We find that some aquatic species that school or forage in patchy environments experience sufficiently severe range contractions as they decline to allow profitable harvesting to extinction even with little or no price increase; and some high-value declining aquatic species experience severe price increases. For terrestrial species, the data needed to evaluate our theory are scarce, but available evidence suggests that extinction-enabling range contractions may be common among declining mammals and birds. Thus, factors causing range contraction as abundance declines may pose unexpectedly large extinction risks to harvested species.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Matthew G Burgess
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Christopher Costello
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
| | - Alexa Fredston-Hermann
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
| | - Malin L Pinsky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
| | - Steven D Gaines
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
| | - David Tilman
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| |
Collapse
|
38
|
Nyborg K, Anderies JM, Dannenberg A, Lindahl T, Schill C, Schlüter M, Adger WN, Arrow KJ, Barrett S, Carpenter S, Chapin FS, Crépin AS, Daily G, Ehrlich P, Folke C, Jager W, Kautsky N, Levin SA, Madsen OJ, Polasky S, Scheffer M, Walker B, Weber EU, Wilen J, Xepapadeas A, de Zeeuw A. Social norms as solutions. Science 2017; 354:42-43. [PMID: 27846488 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf8317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 153] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Karine Nyborg
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations.
| | | | | | | | | | | | - W Neil Adger
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Paul Ehrlich
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | - Carl Folke
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | - Wander Jager
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | - Nils Kautsky
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | | | | | | | | | - Brian Walker
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | - Elke U Weber
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | - James Wilen
- See supplementary materials for author affiliations
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
39
|
Nelson EJ, Helmus MR, Cavender-Bares J, Polasky S, Lasky JR, Zanne AE, Pearse WD, Kraft NJB, Miteva DA, Fagan WF. Commercial Plant Production and Consumption Still Follow the Latitudinal Gradient in Species Diversity despite Economic Globalization. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0163002. [PMID: 27706180 PMCID: PMC5051709 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2016] [Accepted: 08/31/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Increasing trade between countries and gains in income have given consumers around the world access to a richer and more diverse set of commercial plant products (i.e., foods and fibers produced by farmers). According to the economic theory of comparative advantage, countries open to trade will be able to consume more–in terms of volume and diversity–if they concentrate production on commodities that they can most cost-effectively produce, while importing goods that are expensive to produce, relative to other countries. Here, we perform a global analysis of traded commercial plant products and find little evidence that increasing globalization has incentivized agricultural specialization. Instead, a country’s plant production and consumption patterns are still largely determined by local evolutionary legacies of plant diversification. Because tropical countries harbor a greater diversity of lineages across the tree of life than temperate countries, tropical countries produce and consume a greater diversity of plant products than do temperate countries. In contrast, the richer and more economically advanced temperate countries have the capacity to produce and consume more plant species than the generally poorer tropical countries, yet this collection of plant species is drawn from fewer branches on the tree of life. Why have countries not increasingly specialized in plant production despite the theoretical financial incentive to do so? Potential explanations include the persistence of domestic agricultural subsidies that distort production decisions, cultural preferences for diverse local food production, and that diverse food production protects rural households in developing countries from food price shocks. Less specialized production patterns will make crop systems more resilient to zonal climatic and social perturbations, but this may come at the expense of global crop production efficiency, an important step in making the transition to a hotter and more crowded world.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Erik J. Nelson
- Department of Economics, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, Maine, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Matthew R. Helmus
- Center for Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America
- Department of Ecological Sciences—Animal Ecology, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jeannine Cavender-Bares
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
- Institute on Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
- Institute on Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Jesse R. Lasky
- Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Amy E. Zanne
- Department of Biological Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., United States of America
| | - William D. Pearse
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States of America
| | - Nathan J. B. Kraft
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Daniela A. Miteva
- Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America
| | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
- National Socio-environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
40
|
Keeler BL, Gourevitch JD, Polasky S, Isbell F, Tessum CW, Hill JD, Marshall JD. The social costs of nitrogen. Sci Adv 2016; 2:e1600219. [PMID: 27713926 PMCID: PMC5052012 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1600219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2016] [Accepted: 08/24/2016] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Despite growing recognition of the negative externalities associated with reactive nitrogen (N), the damage costs of N to air, water, and climate remain largely unquantified. We propose a comprehensive approach for estimating the social cost of nitrogen (SCN), defined as the present value of the monetary damages caused by an incremental increase in N. This framework advances N accounting by considering how each form of N causes damages at specific locations as it cascades through the environment. We apply the approach to an empirical example that estimates the SCN for N applied as fertilizer. We track impacts of N through its transformation into atmospheric and aquatic pools and estimate the distribution of associated costs to affected populations. Our results confirm that there is no uniform SCN. Instead, changes in N management will result in different N-related costs depending on where N moves and the location, vulnerability, and preferences of populations affected by N. For example, we found that the SCN per kilogram of N fertilizer applied in Minnesota ranges over several orders of magnitude, from less than $0.001/kg N to greater than $10/kg N, illustrating the importance of considering the site, the form of N, and end points of interest rather than assuming a uniform cost for damages. Our approach for estimating the SCN demonstrates the potential of integrated biophysical and economic models to illuminate the costs and benefits of N and inform more strategic and efficient N management.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bonnie L. Keeler
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Corresponding author.
| | - Jesse D. Gourevitch
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Forest Isbell
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Chris W. Tessum
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Jason D. Hill
- Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Julian D. Marshall
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| |
Collapse
|
41
|
Abstract
Reactive nitrogen (N) is created in order to sustain food production, but only a small fraction of this N ends up being consumed as food, the rest being lost to the environment. We calculated that the total N input (TN) of global food production was 171 Tg N yr(-1) in 2000. The production of animal products accounted for over 50% of the TN, against 17% for global calories production. Under current TN per unit of food production and assuming no change in agricultural practices and waste-to-food ratios, we estimate that an additional TN of 100 Tg N yr(-1) will be needed by 2030 for a baseline scenario that would meet hunger alleviation targets for over 9 billion people. Increased animal production will have the largest impact on increasing TN, which calls for new food production systems with better N-recycling, such as cooperation between crop and livestock producing farms. Increased N-use efficiency, healthier diet and decreased food waste could mitigate this increase and even reduce TN in 2030 by 8% relative to the 2000 level. Achieving a worldwide reduction of TN is a major challenge that requires sustained actions to improve nitrogen management practices and reduce nitrogen losses into the environment.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Junguo Liu
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen, 518055, China
| | - Kun Ma
- School of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Qinghua East Road 35, Haidian District, 100083, Beijing, China
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, F-91191, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States
| |
Collapse
|
42
|
Kennedy CM, Miteva DA, Baumgarten L, Hawthorne PL, Sochi K, Polasky S, Oakleaf JR, Uhlhorn EM, Kiesecker J. Bigger is better: Improved nature conservation and economic returns from landscape-level mitigation. Sci Adv 2016; 2:e1501021. [PMID: 27419225 PMCID: PMC4942327 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2015] [Accepted: 06/10/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Impact mitigation is a primary mechanism on which countries rely to reduce environmental externalities and balance development with conservation. Mitigation policies are transitioning from traditional project-by-project planning to landscape-level planning. Although this larger-scale approach is expected to provide greater conservation benefits at the lowest cost, empirical justification is still scarce. Using commercial sugarcane expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado as a case study, we apply economic and biophysical steady-state models to quantify the benefits of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC) under landscape- and property-level planning. We find that FC compliance imposes small costs to business but can generate significant long-term benefits to nature: supporting 32 (±37) additional species (largely habitat specialists), storing 593,000 to 2,280,000 additional tons of carbon worth $69 million to $265 million ($ pertains to U.S. dollars), and marginally improving surface water quality. Relative to property-level compliance, we find that landscape-level compliance reduces total business costs by $19 million to $35 million per 6-year sugarcane growing cycle while often supporting more species and storing more carbon. Our results demonstrate that landscape-level mitigation provides cost-effective conservation and can be used to promote sustainable development.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Christina M. Kennedy
- Global Conservation Lands Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO 80524, USA
| | - Daniela A. Miteva
- Global Conservation Lands Program, The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203, USA
| | - Leandro Baumgarten
- Brazil Program, The Nature Conservancy, SIG Qd. 01, Lt. 985-1005, Sala 206, Brasília/DF 70610-410, Brazil
| | - Peter L. Hawthorne
- Natural Capital Project and Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 325 Learning and Environmental Sciences, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Kei Sochi
- Global Conservation Lands Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO 80524, USA
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Natural Capital Project and Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 325 Learning and Environmental Sciences, 1954 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55112, USA
| | - James R. Oakleaf
- Global Conservation Lands Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO 80524, USA
| | | | - Joseph Kiesecker
- Global Conservation Lands Program, The Nature Conservancy, Fort Collins, CO 80524, USA
| |
Collapse
|
43
|
Ouyang Z, Zheng H, Xiao Y, Polasky S, Liu J, Xu W, Wang Q, Zhang L, Xiao Y, Rao E, Jiang L, Lu F, Wang X, Yang G, Gong S, Wu B, Zeng Y, Yang W, Daily GC. Improvements in ecosystem services from investments in natural capital. Science 2016; 352:1455-9. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf2295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 784] [Impact Index Per Article: 98.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2016] [Accepted: 05/18/2016] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
|
44
|
Chaplin-Kramer R, Jonell M, Guerry A, Lambin EF, Morgan AJ, Pennington D, Smith N, Franch JA, Polasky S. Ecosystem service information to benefit sustainability standards for commodity supply chains. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2015; 1355:77-97. [DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Natural Capital Project; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University; Stanford California
| | - Malin Jonell
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences; Stockholm University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University; Stockholm Sweden
| | - Anne Guerry
- Natural Capital Project; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University; Stanford California
| | - Eric F. Lambin
- Department of Earth Systems Science; School of Earth Sciences, Stanford University; Stanford California
| | | | | | | | | | - Stephen Polasky
- Department of Applied Economics; University of Minnesota; St. Paul Minnesota
| |
Collapse
|
45
|
Guerry AD, Polasky S, Lubchenco J, Chaplin-Kramer R, Daily GC, Griffin R, Ruckelshaus M, Bateman IJ, Duraiappah A, Elmqvist T, Feldman MW, Folke C, Hoekstra J, Kareiva PM, Keeler BL, Li S, McKenzie E, Ouyang Z, Reyers B, Ricketts TH, Rockström J, Tallis H, Vira B. Natural capital and ecosystem services informing decisions: From promise to practice. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2015; 112:7348-55. [PMID: 26082539 PMCID: PMC4475956 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1503751112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 241] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The central challenge of the 21st century is to develop economic, social, and governance systems capable of ending poverty and achieving sustainable levels of population and consumption while securing the life-support systems underpinning current and future human well-being. Essential to meeting this challenge is the incorporation of natural capital and the ecosystem services it provides into decision-making. We explore progress and crucial gaps at this frontier, reflecting upon the 10 y since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We focus on three key dimensions of progress and ongoing challenges: raising awareness of the interdependence of ecosystems and human well-being, advancing the fundamental interdisciplinary science of ecosystem services, and implementing this science in decisions to restore natural capital and use it sustainably. Awareness of human dependence on nature is at an all-time high, the science of ecosystem services is rapidly advancing, and talk of natural capital is now common from governments to corporate boardrooms. However, successful implementation is still in early stages. We explore why ecosystem service information has yet to fundamentally change decision-making and suggest a path forward that emphasizes: (i) developing solid evidence linking decisions to impacts on natural capital and ecosystem services, and then to human well-being; (ii) working closely with leaders in government, business, and civil society to develop the knowledge, tools, and practices necessary to integrate natural capital and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making; and (iii) reforming institutions to change policy and practices to better align private short-term goals with societal long-term goals.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anne D Guerry
- The Natural Capital Project, c/o School of Environment and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
| | - Stephen Polasky
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; The Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Jane Lubchenco
- Department of Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97333
| | - Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Gretchen C Daily
- The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; Department of Biology, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm SE-104 05, Sweden
| | - Robert Griffin
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Mary Ruckelshaus
- The Natural Capital Project, c/o School of Environment and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Ian J Bateman
- Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
| | - Anantha Duraiappah
- Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Education for Peace and Sustainable Development, New Delhi 110 029, India
| | - Thomas Elmqvist
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden
| | | | - Carl Folke
- Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm SE-104 05, Sweden; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm SE-104 05, Sweden
| | | | | | - Bonnie L Keeler
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; The Natural Capital Project, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
| | - Shuzhuo Li
- Institute of Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xian Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province 710049, People's Republic of China
| | - Emily McKenzie
- World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC 20037; World Wildlife Fund-UK, The Living Planet Centre, Surrey GU21 4LL, United Kingdom
| | - Zhiyun Ouyang
- State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, People's Republic of China
| | - Belinda Reyers
- Natural Resources and the Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Stellenbosch 7599, South Africa
| | - Taylor H Ricketts
- Gund Institute of Ecological Economics, and Rubenstein School for Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405
| | - Johan Rockström
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden
| | | | - Bhaskar Vira
- Department of Geography, and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
46
|
Naeem S, Ingram JC, Varga A, Agardy T, Barten P, Bennett G, Bloomgarden E, Bremer LL, Burkill P, Cattau M, Ching C, Colby M, Cook DC, Costanza R, DeClerck F, Freund C, Gartner T, Goldman-Benner R, Gunderson J, Jarrett D, Kinzig AP, Kiss A, Koontz A, Kumar P, Lasky JR, Masozera M, Meyers D, Milano F, Naughton-Treves L, Nichols E, Olander L, Olmsted P, Perge E, Perrings C, Polasky S, Potent J, Prager C, Quetier F, Redford K, Saterson K, Thoumi G, Vargas MT, Vickerman S, Weisser W, Wilkie D, Wunder S. Get the science right when paying for nature's services. Science 2015; 347:1206-7. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa1403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 181] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
|
47
|
Isbell F, Tilman D, Polasky S, Loreau M. The biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debt. Ecol Lett 2014; 18:119-34. [PMID: 25430966 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2014] [Revised: 10/01/2014] [Accepted: 10/16/2014] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Habitat destruction is driving biodiversity loss in remaining ecosystems, and ecosystem functioning and services often directly depend on biodiversity. Thus, biodiversity loss is likely creating an ecosystem service debt: a gradual loss of biodiversity-dependent benefits that people obtain from remaining fragments of natural ecosystems. Here, we develop an approach for quantifying ecosystem service debts, and illustrate its use to estimate how one anthropogenic driver, habitat destruction, could indirectly diminish one ecosystem service, carbon storage, by creating an extinction debt. We estimate that c. 2-21 Pg C could be gradually emitted globally in remaining ecosystem fragments because of plant species loss caused by nearby habitat destruction. The wide range for this estimate reflects substantial uncertainties in how many plant species will be lost, how much species loss will impact ecosystem functioning and whether plant species loss will decrease soil carbon. Our exploratory analysis suggests that biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debts can be globally substantial, even when locally small, if they occur diffusely across vast areas of remaining ecosystems. There is substantial value in conserving not only the quantity (area), but also the quality (biodiversity) of natural ecosystems for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Forest Isbell
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA; Department of Ecology, Evolution & Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
48
|
Graedel TE, Swackhamer D, Anex R, Carroll WF, Daigger GT, Ferrão P, Frumkin H, Katzen S, Palmisano A, Polasky S, Scarlett L, Stephens R, Zeise L. Sustainability for the nation: resource connections and governance linkages. Environ Sci Technol 2014. [PMID: 24910888 DOI: 10.17226/13471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- T E Graedel
- Center for Industrial Ecology, Yale University , New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
49
|
Graedel TE, Swackhamer D, Anex R, Carroll WF, Daigger GT, Ferrão P, Frumkin H, Katzen S, Palmisano A, Polasky S, Scarlett L, Stephens R, Zeise L. Sustainability for the nation: resource connections and governance linkages. Environ Sci Technol 2014; 48:7197-7199. [PMID: 24910888 DOI: 10.1021/es502328v] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- T E Graedel
- Center for Industrial Ecology, Yale University , New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
50
|
Kovacs K, Polasky S, Nelson E, Keeler BL, Pennington D, Plantinga AJ, Taff SJ. Evaluating the return in ecosystem services from investment in public land acquisitions. PLoS One 2013; 8:e62202. [PMID: 23776429 PMCID: PMC3679083 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2012] [Accepted: 03/20/2013] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
We evaluate the return on investment (ROI) from public land conservation in the state of Minnesota, USA. We use a spatially-explicit modeling tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST), to estimate how changes in land use and land cover (LULC), including public land acquisitions for conservation, influence the joint provision and value of multiple ecosystem services. We calculate the ROI of a public conservation acquisition as the ratio of the present value of ecosystem services generated by the conservation to the cost of the conservation. For the land scenarios analyzed, carbon sequestration services generated the greatest benefits followed by water quality improvements and recreation opportunities. We found ROI values ranged from 0.21 to 5.28 depending on assumptions about future land use change, service values, and discount rate. Our study suggests conservation is a good investment as long as investments are targeted to areas with low land costs and high service values.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kent Kovacs
- Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, United States of America.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|