Phenotypic plasticity in tropical butterflies is linked to climatic seasonality on a macroevolutionary scale

Phenotypic plasticity can be adaptive in fluctuating environments by providing rapid environment-phenotype matching and this applies particularly in seasonal environments. African Bicyclus butterflies have repeatedly colonized seasonal savannahs from ancestral forests around the Late Miocene and many species now exhibit seasonal polyphenism. On a macroevolutionary scale, it can be expected that savannah species will exhibit higher plasticity due to them experiencing stronger environmental seasonality than forest species. We quantified seasonality using environmental niche modelling, and surveyed the degree of plasticity in a key wing pattern element (eyespot size) using museum specimens. We show that species occurring in highly seasonal environments display strong plasticity, while species in less seasonal or aseasonal environments exhibit surprisingly variable degrees of plasticity, including strong to no plasticity. Furthermore, eyespot size plasticity has a moderate phylogenetic signal and the ancestral Bicyclus likely exhibited some degree of plasticity. We propose hypotheses to explain the range of plasticity patterns seen in less seasonal environments, and generate testable predictions for the evolution of plasticity in Bicyclus. Our study provides one of the most compelling cases showing links between seasonality and phenotypic plasticity on a macroevolutionary scale and the potential role of plasticity in facilitating the colonization of novel environments.

C4 photosynthesis provided an immediate demographic advantage to populations of the grass Alloteropsis semialata

C4 photosynthesis is a key innovation in land plant evolution, but its immediate effects on population demography are unclear. We explore the early impact of the C4 trait on the trajectories of C4 and non-C4 populations of the grass Alloteropsis semialata. We combine niche models projected into paleoclimate layers for the last 5 million years with demographic models based on genomic data. The initial split between C4 and non-C4 populations was followed by a larger expansion of the ancestral C4 population, and further diversification led to the unparalleled expansion of descendant C4 populations. Overall, C4 populations spread over three continents and achieved the highest population growth, in agreement with a broader climatic niche that rendered a large potential range over time. The C4 populations that remained in the region of origin, however, experienced lower population growth, rather consistent with local geographic constraints. Moreover, the posterior transfer of some C4-related characters to non-C4 counterparts might have facilitated the recent expansion of non-C4 populations in the region of origin. Altogether, our findings support that C4 photosynthesis provided an immediate demographic advantage to A. semialata populations, but its effect might be masked by geographic contingencies.

Divergence in evolutionary potential of life history traits among wild populations is predicted by differences in climatic conditions

Short-term adaptive evolution represents one of the primary mechanisms allowing species to persist in the face of global change. Predicting the adaptive response at the species level requires reliable estimates of the evolutionary potential of traits involved in adaptive responses, as well as understanding how evolutionary potential varies across a species' range. Theory suggests that spatial variation in the fitness landscape due to environmental variation will directly impact the evolutionary potential of traits. However, empirical evidence on the link between environmental variation and evolutionary potential across a species range in the wild is lacking. In this study, we estimate multivariate evolutionary potential (via the genetic variance-covariance matrix, or G-matrix) for six morphological and life history traits in 10 wild populations of great tits (Parus major) distributed across Europe. The G-matrix significantly varies in size, shape, and orientation across populations for both types of traits. For life history traits, the differences in G-matrix are larger when populations are more distant in their climatic niche. This suggests that local climates contribute to shaping the evolutionary potential of phenotypic traits that are strongly related to fitness. However, we found no difference in the overall evolutionary potential (i.e., G-matrix size) between populations closer to the core or the edge of the distribution area. This large-scale comparison of G-matrices across wild populations emphasizes that integrating variation in multivariate evolutionary potential is important to understand and predict species' adaptive responses to new selective pressures.

Physiological cold tolerance evolves faster than climatic niches in plants

Understanding how plants respond to thermal stress is central to predicting plant responses and community dynamics in natural ecosystems under projected scenarios of climate change. Although physiological tolerance is suggested to evolve slower than climatic niches, this comparison remains to be addressed in plants using a phylogenetic comparative approach. In this study, we compared i) the evolutionary rates of physiological tolerance to extreme temperatures with ii) the corresponding rates of climatic niche across three major vascular plant groups. We further accounted for the potential effects of hardening when examining the association between physiological and climatic niche rates. We found that physiological cold tolerance evolves faster than heat tolerance in all three groups. The coldest climatic-niche temperatures evolve faster than the warmest climatic-niche temperatures. Importantly, evolutionary rates of physiological cold tolerance were faster than rates of change in climatic niches. However, an inverse association between physiological cold tolerance and responding climatic niche for plants without hardening was detected. Our results indicated that plants may be sensitive to changes in warmer temperatures due to the slower evolutionary rates of heat tolerance. This pattern has deep implications for the framework that is being used to estimate climate-related extinctions over the upcoming century.

Two Species Delimitation of Pseudaulacaspis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) Based on Morphology, Molecular Clustering, and Niche Differentiation

Pseudaucalaspis pentagona and P. prunicola are notorious pests and commonly feed on various ornamental plants and fruit trees worldwide. The two species share many host-plant species, and are similar in morphological characteristics and life cycle, making it difficult to distinguish to distinguish between them. In this study, morphological characteristics, molecular evidence, and ecological niches were used to define these species. We performed PCA analysis on 22 morphological characteristics that allowed the delineation of the species. We then sequenced the COI gene of both species revealing five populations of P. pentagona and one population of P. prunicola, and the higher support rate could distinguish the two species. We also identified the potential distribution area of the two species based on the MaxEnt niche model, which showed that the degree of niche overlap was high, but that they occupied different niches. Ultimately, we combined three lines of evidence to show that the two species are distinctly different. This study supports species definition using combined morphology, genetics, and ecology and provides a theoretical basis for the effective control of these two pests in the future.

Mutualistic interactions shape global spatial congruence and climatic niche evolution in Neotropical mimetic butterflies

Understanding the mechanisms underlying species distributions and coexistence is both a priority and a challenge for biodiversity hotspots such as the Neotropics. Here, we highlight that Müllerian mimicry, where defended prey species display similar warning signals, is key to the maintenance of biodiversity in the c. 400 species of the Neotropical butterfly tribe Ithomiini (Nymphalidae: Danainae). We show that mimicry drives large-scale spatial association among phenotypically similar species, providing new empirical evidence for the validity of Müller's model at a macroecological scale. Additionally, we show that mimetic interactions drive the evolutionary convergence of species climatic niche, thereby strengthening the co-occurrence of co-mimetic species. This study provides new insights into the importance of mutualistic interactions in shaping both niche evolution and species assemblages at large spatial scales. Critically, in the context of climate change, our results highlight the vulnerability to extinction cascades of such adaptively assembled communities tied by positive interactions.

Plants maintain climate fidelity in the face of dynamic climate change

Plants will experience considerable changes in climate within their geographic ranges over the next several decades. They may respond by exhibiting niche flexibility and adapting to changing climates. Alternatively, plant taxa may exhibit climate fidelity, shifting their geographic distributions to track their preferred climates. Here, we examine the responses of plant taxa to changing climates over the past 18,000 y to evaluate the extent to which the 16 dominant plant taxa of North America have exhibited climate fidelity. We find that 75% of plant taxa consistently exhibit climate fidelity over the past 18,000 y, even during the times of most extreme climate change. Of the four taxa that do not consistently exhibit climate fidelity, three-elm (Ulmus), beech (Fagus), and ash (Fraxinus)-experience a long-term shift in their realized climatic niche between the early Holocene and present day. Plant taxa that migrate longer distances better maintain consistent climatic niches across transition periods during times of the most extreme climate change. Today, plant communities with the highest climate fidelity are found in regions with high topographic and microclimate heterogeneity that are expected to exhibit high climate resilience, allowing plants to shift distributions locally and adjust to some amount of climate change. However, once the climate change buffering of the region is exceeded, these plant communities will need to track climates across broader landscapes but be challenged to do so because of the low habitat connectivity of the regions.

Stem hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance of Quercus species are associated with their climatic niche

The hydraulic traits of a plant species may reflect its climate adaptations. Southwest China is considered as a biodiversity hotpot of the genus Quercus (oak). However, the hydraulic adaptations of Asian oaks to their climate niches remain unclear. Ten common garden-grown oak species with distinct natural distributions in eastern Asia were used to determine their stem xylem embolism resistance (water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity, P50), stem hydraulic efficiency (vessel anatomy and sapwood specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks)) and leaf anatomical traits. We also compiled four key functional traits: wood density, hydraulic-weighted vessel diameter, Ks and P50 data for 31 oak species from previous literature. We analyzed the relationship between hydraulic traits and climatic factors over the native ranges of 41 oak species. Our results revealed that the 10 Asian oak species, which are mainly distributed in humid subtropical habitats, possessed a stem xylem with low embolism resistance and moderate hydraulic efficiency. The deciduous and evergreen species of the 10 Asian oaks differed in the stem and leaf traits related to hydraulic efficiency. Ks differed significantly between the two phenological groups (deciduous and evergreens) in the 41-oak dataset. No significant difference in P50 between the two groups was found for the 10 Asian oaks or the 41-oak dataset. The oak species that can distribute in arid habitats possessed a stem xylem with high embolism resistance. Ks negatively related to the humidity of the native range of the 10 Asian oaks, but showed no trend when assessing the entire global oak dataset. Our study suggests that stem hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance in Quercus species are shaped by their climate niche. Our findings assist predictions of oak drought resistance with future climate changes for oak forest management.

Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species

Climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, especially to tropical species. Yet, why tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change remains unclear. Tropical species are thought to have narrower physiological tolerances to temperature, and they have already experienced a higher estimated frequency of climate-related local extinctions. These two patterns suggest that tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change because they have narrower thermal niche widths. However, no studies have tested whether species with narrower climatic niche widths for temperature have experienced more local extinctions, and if these narrower niche widths can explain the higher frequency of tropical local extinctions. Here, we test these ideas using resurvey data from 538 plant and animal species from 10 studies. We found that mean niche widths among species and the extent of climate change (increase in maximum annual temperatures) together explained most variation (>75%) in the frequency of local extinction among studies. Surprisingly, neither latitude nor occurrence in the tropics alone significantly predicted local extinction among studies, but latitude and niche widths were strongly inversely related. Niche width also significantly predicted local extinction among species, as well as among and (sometimes) within studies. Overall, niche width may offer a relatively simple and accessible predictor of the vulnerability of populations to climate change. Intriguingly, niche width has the best predictive power to explain extinction from global warming when it incorporates coldest yearly temperatures.

Matches and mismatches between the global distribution of major food crops and climate suitability

Over the course of history, humans have moved crops from their regions of origin to new locations across the world. The social, cultural and economic drivers of these movements have generated differences not only between current distributions of crops and their climatic origins, but also between crop distributions and climate suitability for their production. Although these mismatches are particularly important to inform agricultural strategies on climate change adaptation, they have, to date, not been quantified consistently at the global level. Here, we show that the relationships between the distributions of 12 major food crops and climate suitability for their yields display strong variation globally. After investigating the role of biophysical, socio-economic and historical factors, we report that high-income world regions display a better match between crop distribution and climate suitability. In addition, although crops are farmed predominantly in the same climatic range as their wild progenitors, climate suitability is not necessarily higher there, a pattern that reflects the legacy of domestication history on current crop distribution. Our results reveal how far the global distribution of major crops diverges from their climatic optima and call for greater consideration of the multiple dimensions of the crop socio-ecological niche in climate change adaptive strategies.

Uncovering haplotype diversity in cultivated Mexican vanilla species

PREMISE

Although vanilla is one of the best-known spices, there is only a limited understanding of its biology and genetics within Mexico, where its cultivation originated and where phenotypic variability is high. This study aims to augment our understanding of vanilla's genetic resources by assessing species delimitation and genetic, geographic, and climatic variability within Mexican cultivated vanilla.

METHODS

Using nuclear and plastid DNA sequence data from 58 Mexican samples collected from three regions and 133 ex situ accessions, we assessed species monophyly using phylogenetic analyses and genetic distances. Intraspecific genetic variation was summarized through the identification of haplotypes. Within the primarily cultivated species, Vanilla planifolia, haplotype relationships were further verified using plastome and rRNA gene sequences. Climatic niche and haplotype composition were assessed across the landscape.

RESULTS

Three species (Vanilla planifolia, V. pompona, and V. insignis) and 13 haplotypes were identified among Mexican vanilla. Within V. planifolia haplotypes, hard phylogenetic incongruences between plastid and nuclear sequences suggest past hybridization events. Eight haplotypes consisted exclusively of Mexican samples. The dominant V. planifolia haplotype occurred throughout all three regions as well as outside of its country of origin. Haplotype richness was found to be highest in regions around Papantla and Chinantla.

CONCLUSIONS

Long histories of regional cultivation support the consideration of endemic haplotypes as landraces shaped by adaptation to local conditions and/or hybridization. Results may aid further genomic investigations of vanilla's genetic resources and ultimately support the preservation of genetic diversity within the economically important crop.

Climatic ecological suitability and potential distribution of Tricholoma matsutake in western Sichuan Plateau, China based on MaxEnt model

Based on the distribution data of Tricholoma matsutake obtained from field investigation and literature, the ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the distribution law and suitable area of T. matsutake in the western Sichuan Plateau. The prediction was made for the future changes in the suitable area of T. matsutake by analyzing the relationship between climate factors and dynamic distribution. The results showed that the area under curve (AUC) values of both the model training set and validation set were greater than 0.90, indicating that the model prediction results were extremely accurate. The environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of T. matsutake were mainly the lowest temperature in the coldest month, the coldest season precipitation, annual temperature difference and soil type, with accumulative contribution of 90.3%. The niche parameters of suitable distribution areas of T. matsutake were as follows: the lowest temperature in the coldest month was -18.5--5.4 ℃, the coldest season precipitation was less than 15.7 mm, the annual temperature difference was 39.5-45 ℃, and soil type was semi-leached soil, including dry red soil, cinnamon soil, gray cinnamon soil, black soil and grey forest soil. The suitable areas of T. matsutake were distributed in the southwest, south, central and east of the plateau at an altitude range of 1900-3600 m. The highly suita-ble areas were mainly distributed in some towns of Yajiang, Xiangcheng, Kangding, Jiulong, Daocheng, Litang, Batang, Danba, Maerkang, Xiaojin, Jinchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, etc. The moderately and lowly suitable areas were located in some towns of Derong, Daofu, Xinlong, Luhuo, Baiyu, Luding, Rangtang, Wenchuan, Heishui, Jiuzhaigou. The highly suitable areas were discontinuously distributed according to the direction of rivers and mountains. The moderately suitable areas were connected with the highly suitable areas, while the lowly suitable areas were the extension of the highly and moderately suitable areas. Future climate change would be beneficial to the growth of T. matsutake on the western Sichuan Plateau, while the climate-suitable areas would show an overall increasing trend. Suitable areas in the low-altitude Minjiang River Basin would be more affected by climate change than those located in high-altitude areas.

Climate warming will increase chances of hybridization and introgression between two Takydromus lizards (Lacertidae)

Coexisting species may experience population and range changes alone or jointly in response to environmental change. Here, we used six climate variables and ten modeling algorithms to predict the distribution of two Takydromus species (T. septentrionalis and T. sexlineatus) in China. We identified the sympatric and allopatric areas by comparing projections between the two species based on habitat suitability under present and future climate scenarios. We constructed the hypervolumes of six climate variables for the two species and then evaluated overlaps between hypervolumes. From this study, we know the following. First, minimum temperature of coldest month contributes the most to the prediction of habitat suitability. Second, habitats suitable for the two species will shift northward in response to climate warming. Third, the range of T. sexlineatus will expand across the four future time intervals before 2,100, namely the 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 intervals, under both Shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios, and the range of T. septentrionalis will also expand in the future except at the 2081-2100 interval under the SSP585 scenario. Fourth, the sympatric areas will contract or expand under the SSP245 scenario and expand across the four future time intervals before 2,100 under the SSP585 scenario. Fifth, the niche hypervolumes of the two species partially overlapped, and the differences in niche centroid show some degree of niche differentiation between the two species. These results allow to conclude that climate warming will not only drive the northward drift of sympatric areas but also increase the size of these areas if nothing is done to limit the emission of greenhouse gases. Given the existence of hybridization and introgression between T. septentrionalis and T. sexlineatus in the field where they coexist, we also conclude that climate warming will increase chances of hybridization and introgression between the two species.

Biogeographic Overview of Ulmaceae: Diversity, Distribution, Ecological Preferences, and Conservation Status

The elm family (Ulmaceae) is a woody plant group with important scientific, societal, and economic value. We aim to present the first biogeographic synthesis investigating the global diversity, distribution, ecological preferences, and the conservation status of Ulmaceae. A literature review was performed to explore the available data for all extant species. Our study made it possible to map the actual global distribution of Ulmaceae with high precision, and to elucidate the centers of diversity, located mainly in China and in the southeastern USA. A detailed comparative analysis of the macroclimatic niche for each species was produced, which shows the general biogeographic pattern of the family and pinpoints the outlier species. The results corroborate recent molecular analyses and support the division of Ulmaceae into two taxonomically, biogeographically, and ecologically well-differentiated groups: the so-called temperate clade with 4 genera and 43 species and the tropical clade with 3 genera and 13 species. The elm family is often described as a typical temperate plant group, however the diversity peak of all Ulmaceae is located in the subtropical zone, and a non-negligible part of the family is exclusively distributed in the tropics. We also noticed that a high proportion of Ulmaceae is linked to humid macro- or microhabitats. Finally, we highlighted that nearly 25% of all Ulmaceae are threatened. Fieldwork, conservation efforts, and research activities are still necessary for this family, particularly for the tropical members and the most endangered species.

Mammal species occupy different climates following the expansion of human impacts

Cities and agricultural fields encroach on the most fertile, habitable terrestrial landscapes, fundamentally altering global ecosystems. Today, 75% of terrestrial ecosystems are considerably altered by human activities, and landscape transformation continues to accelerate. Human impacts are one of the major drivers of the current biodiversity crisis, and they have had unprecedented consequences on ecosystem function and rates of species extinctions for thousands of years. Here we use the fossil record to investigate whether changes in geographic range that could result from human impacts have altered the climatic niches of 46 species covering six mammal orders within the contiguous United States. Sixty-seven percent of the studied mammals have significantly different climatic niches today than they did before the onset of the Industrial Revolution. Niches changed the most in the portions of the range that overlap with human-impacted landscapes. Whether by forcible elimination/introduction or more indirect means, large-bodied dietary specialists have been extirpated from climatic envelopes that characterize human-impacted areas, whereas smaller, generalist mammals have been facilitated, colonizing these same areas of the climatic space. Importantly, the climates where we find mammals today do not necessarily represent their past habitats. Without mitigation, as we move further into the Anthropocene, we can anticipate a low standing biodiversity dominated by small, generalist mammals.

Climatic limits of temperate rainforest tree species are explained by xylem embolism resistance among angiosperms but not among conifers

Hydraulic failure explains much of the increased rates of drought-induced tree mortality around the world, underlining the importance of understanding how species distributions are shaped by their vulnerability to embolism. Here we determined which physiological traits explain species climatic limits among temperate rainforest trees in a region where chronic water limitation is uncommon. We quantified the variation in stem embolism vulnerability and leaf turgor loss point among 55 temperate rainforest tree species in New Zealand and tested which traits were most strongly related to species climatic limits. Leaf turgor loss point and stem P50 (tension at which hydraulic conductance is at 50% of maximum) were uncorrelated. Stem P50 and hydraulic safety margin were the most strongly related physiological traits to climatic limits among angiosperms, but not among conifers. Morphological traits such as wood density and leaf dry matter content did not explain species climatic limits. Stem embolism resistance and leaf turgor loss point appear to have evolved independently. Embolism resistance is the most useful predictor of the climatic limits of angiosperm trees. High embolism resistance in the curiously overbuilt New Zealand conifers suggests that their xylem properties may be more closely related to growing slowly under nutrient limitation and to resistance to microbial decomposition.

Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.

Range edges in heterogeneous landscapes: Integrating geographic scale and climate complexity into range dynamics

The impacts of climate change have re-energized interest in understanding the role of climate in setting species geographic range edges. Despite the strong focus on species' distributions in ecology and evolution, defining a species range edge is theoretically and empirically difficult. The challenge of determining a range edge and its relationship to climate is in part driven by the nested nature of geography and the multidimensionality of climate, which together generate complex patterns of both climate and biotic distributions across landscapes. Because range-limiting processes occur in both geographic and climate space, the relationship between these two spaces plays a critical role in setting range limits. With both conceptual and empirical support, we argue that three factors-climate heterogeneity, collinearity among climate variables, and spatial scale-interact to shape the spatial structure of range edges along climate gradients, and we discuss several ways that these factors influence the stability of species range edges with a changing climate. We demonstrate that geographic and climate edges are often not concordant across species ranges. Furthermore, high climate heterogeneity and low climate collinearity across landscapes increase the spectrum of possible relationships between geographic and climatic space, suggesting that geographic range edges and climatic niche limits correspond less frequently than we may expect. More empirical explorations of how the complexity of real landscapes shapes the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine species range edges will advance the development of range limit theory and its applications to biodiversity conservation in the context of changing climate.

Expansion history and environmental suitability shape effective population size in a plant invasion

The margins of an expanding range are predicted to be challenging environments for adaptation. Marginal populations should often experience low effective population sizes (N_e ) where genetic drift is high due to demographic expansion and/or census population size is low due to unfavourable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, invasive species demonstrate increasing evidence of rapid evolution and potential adaptation to novel environments encountered during colonization, calling into question whether significant reductions in N_e are realized during range expansions in nature. Here we report one of the first empirical tests of the joint effects of expansion dynamics and environment on effective population size variation during invasive range expansion. We estimate contemporary values of N_e using rates of linkage disequilibrium among genome-wide markers within introduced populations of the highly invasive plant Centaurea solstitialis (yellow starthistle) in North America (California, USA), and within native Eurasian populations. As predicted, we find that N_e within the invaded range is positively correlated with both expansion history (time since founding) and habitat quality (abiotic climate). History and climate had independent additive effects with similar effect sizes, indicating an important role for both factors in this invasion. These results support theoretical expectations for the population genetics of range expansion, though whether these processes can ultimately arrest the spread of an invasive species remains an unanswered question.

Life history is a key factor explaining functional trait diversity among subtropical grasses, and its influence differs between C3 and C4 species

Life history and photosynthetic type both affect the economics of leaf physiological function. Annual plants have lower tissue densities and resource-use efficiencies than perennials, while C4 photosynthesis, facilitated in grasses by specific changes in leaf anatomy, improves photosynthetic efficiency and water-use efficiency, especially in hot climates. This study aimed to determine whether C4 photosynthesis affects differences in functional traits between annual and perennial species. We measured 26 traits and characterised niche descriptors for 42 grasses from subtropical China. Differences in the majority of traits were explained by life history. The ranges of annual species (particularly C4 annuals) extended to regions with greater temperature seasonality and lower precipitation, and annuals had less-negative turgor-loss points, higher specific leaf areas, and lower water-use efficiencies, stomatal conductances, and leaf areas per stem area than perennials. Photosynthetic type largely affected leaf physiology as expected, but interacted with life history in determining specific traits. Leaf hydraulic conductance was intermediate in perennials, highest in C4-annuals, and lowest in C3-annuals. Densities of stomata and stem vessels were similar across C3-perennials and C4 species, but stomatal densities were lower and stem vessel densities higher in C3-annuals. Phylogenetic principal component analysis confirmed that in this subtropical environment life history is the predominant axis separating species, and annuals and perennials were more different within C3 than C4 grasses. The interplay between life history and photosynthetic type may be an overlooked factor in shaping the physiological ecology of grasses.

Multiple data sources and freely available code is critical when investigating species distributions and diversity: a response to Knouft (2018)

A recent comment from Knouft () has suggested that our original article (Dallas et al. ) was an 'inappropriate application of biodiversity data'. Here, we affirm our results, and address the more general point about biodiversity data use.

Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic-core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972-2000) and during an extreme event (2001-2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die-off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die-off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die-off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range-wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co-occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die-off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.

Variation in xylem vulnerability to embolism in European beech from geographically marginal populations

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and heatwaves in Europe, leading to effects on forest growth and major forest dieback events due to hydraulic failure caused by xylem embolism. Inter-specific variability in embolism resistance has been studied in detail, but little is known about intra-specific variability, particularly in marginal populations. We evaluated 15 European beech populations, mostly from geographically marginal sites of the species distribution range, focusing particularly on populations from the dry southern margin. We found small, but significant differences in resistance to embolism between populations, with xylem pressures causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity ranging from -2.84 to -3.55 MPa. Significant phenotypic clines of increasing embolism resistance with increasing temperature and aridity were observed: the southernmost beech populations growing in a warmer drier climate and with lower habitat suitability have higher resistance to embolism than those from Northern Europe growing more favourable conditions. Previous studies have shown that there is little or no difference in embolism resistance between core populations, but our findings show that marginal populations have developed ways of protecting their xylem based on either evolution or plasticity.

How do cuticular hydrocarbons evolve? Physiological constraints and climatic and biotic selection pressures act on a complex functional trait

Cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) cover the cuticles of virtually all insects, serving as a waterproofing agent and as a communication signal. The causes for the high CHC variation between species, and the factors influencing CHC profiles, are scarcely understood. Here, we compare CHC profiles of ant species from seven biogeographic regions, searching for physiological constraints and for climatic and biotic selection pressures. Molecule length constrained CHC composition: long-chain profiles contained fewer linear alkanes, but more hydrocarbons with disruptive features in the molecule. This is probably owing to selection on the physiology to build a semi-fluid cuticular layer, which is necessary for waterproofing and communication. CHC composition also depended on the precipitation in the ants' habitats. Species from wet climates had more alkenes and fewer dimethyl alkanes than those from drier habitats, which can be explained by different waterproofing capacities of these compounds. By contrast, temperature did not affect CHC composition. Mutualistically associated (parabiotic) species possessed profiles highly distinct from non-associated species. Our study is, to our knowledge, the first to show systematic impacts of physiological, climatic and biotic factors on quantitative CHC composition across a global, multi-species dataset. We demonstrate how they jointly shape CHC profiles, and advance our understanding of the evolution of this complex functional trait in insects.

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change.

Contrasting evolutionary processes during Quaternary climatic changes and historical orogenies: a case study of the Japanese endemic primroses Primula sect. Reinii

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recent biogeographic studies have illustrated that Quaternary climatic changes and historical orogenies have driven the development of high levels of biodiversity. In this context, phylogenetic niche conservatism may play a role as a major precursor of allopatric speciation. However, the effects of niche evolution on the diversification patterns of plant species under rapid habitat changes are still unknown. Here, Primula section Reinii, one of the few primroses endemic to the Japanese Archipelago, was investigated. This study aimed to clarify the phylogenetic position and relationships of section Reinii, interpret the biogeographic and diversification patterns of this group and gain a better understanding of the role of climatic niche evolution in the Japanese endemic primroses.

METHODS

Dated phylogeny for Primula section Reinii is presented based on the sequences of six chloroplast genes and one nuclear gene. Biogeographic history was reconstructed using statistical dispersal-vicariance analysis. Macro-evolutionary modelling of the climatic niche was combined with biogeographic inferences.

KEY RESULTS

Section Reinii was shown to be monophyletic based on chloroplast and nuclear sequences. Fossil-calibrated dating analysis estimated that this section diverged from its sister taxon, sect. Cortusoides, around 1.82 million years ago, and intraspecific diversification occurred within the last million years. This time frame was characterized by Quaternary climatic oscillations and uplift of high mountains in Japan. Biogeographic inference suggested that this section originated at the northern end of the Japanese Archipelago and then dispersed southward to other islands. Models of climatic niche evolution indicated that the closely related species P. reinii and P. tosanensis have contrasting niche optima and rates of niche evolution.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the Japanese islands may play a significant role in the biogeographic history of Japanese endemic primroses. Contrasting evolutionary processes found in closely related species illustrate the effects of climatic niche evolution on species' diversification patterns.

Niche shifts after long-distance dispersal events in bipolar sedges (Carex, Cyperaceae)

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Bipolar species represent the greatest biogeographical disjunction on Earth, raising many questions about the colonization and adaptive processes behind such striking distribution. We investigated climatic niche differences of five Carex bipolar species in North and South America to assess niche shifts between these two regions. Moreover, we assessed potential distribution changes with future climate change.

METHODS

We used 1202 presence data points from herbarium specimens and 19 bioclimatic variables to assess climatic niche differences and potential distributions among the five species using ordination methods and Maxent.

KEY RESULTS

The niche overlap analyses showed low levels of niche filling and high climatic niche expansion between North and South America. Carex macloviana and C. maritima showed the greatest niche expansion (60% and 96%, respectively), followed by C. magellanica (45%) and C. microglochin (39%). Only C. canescens did not colonize new environments (niche expansion = 0.2%). In contrast, all species but C. magellanica had niche filling that was <40%; hence, they are absent in the south from many environments they inhabit in North America. Climate change will push all species toward higher latitudes and elevation, reducing the availability of suitable environments.

CONCLUSIONS

The colonization of South America seems to have involved frequent climatic niche shifts. Most species have colonized new environments from those occupied in the North. Observed niche shifts appear congruent with time since colonization and with current genetic structure within species. In these cold-dwelling species, climate change will most likely decrease their suitable environments in the future.

Climatic niche evolution is faster in sympatric than allopatric lineages of the butterfly genus Pyrgus

Understanding how speciation relates to ecological divergence has long fascinated biologists. It is assumed that ecological divergence is essential to sympatric speciation, as a mechanism to avoid competition and eventually lead to reproductive isolation, while divergence in allopatry is not necessarily associated with niche differentiation. The impact of the spatial context of divergence on the evolutionary rates of abiotic dimensions of the ecological niche has rarely been explored for an entire clade. Here, we compare the magnitude of climatic niche shifts between sympatric versus allopatric divergence of lineages in butterflies. By combining next-generation sequencing, parametric biogeography and ecological niche analyses applied to a genus-wide phylogeny of Palaearctic Pyrgus butterflies, we compare evolutionary rates along eight climatic dimensions across sister lineages that diverged in large-scale sympatry versus allopatry. In order to examine the possible effects of the spatial scale at which sympatry is defined, we considered three sets of biogeographic assignments, ranging from narrow to broad definition. Our findings suggest higher rates of niche evolution along all climatic dimensions for sister lineages that diverge in sympatry, when using a narrow delineation of biogeographic areas. This result contrasts with significantly lower rates of climatic niche evolution found in cases of allopatric speciation, despite the biogeographic regions defined here being characterized by significantly different climates. Higher rates in allopatry are retrieved when biogeographic areas are too widely defined-in such a case allopatric events may be recorded as sympatric. Our results reveal the macro-evolutionary significance of abiotic niche differentiation involved in speciation processes within biogeographic regions, and illustrate the importance of the spatial scale chosen to define areas when applying parametric biogeographic analyses.

Herbivore and pathogen effects on tree growth are additive, but mediated by tree diversity and plant traits

Herbivores and fungal pathogens are key drivers of plant community composition and functioning. The effects of herbivores and pathogens are mediated by the diversity and functional characteristics of their host plants. However, the combined effects of herbivory and pathogen damage, and their consequences for plant performance, have not yet been addressed in the context of biodiversity–ecosystem functioning research. We analyzed the relationships between herbivory, fungal pathogen damage and their effects on tree growth in a large‐scale forest‐biodiversity experiment. Moreover, we tested whether variation in leaf trait and climatic niche characteristics among tree species influenced these relationships. We found significant positive effects of herbivory on pathogen damage, and vice versa. These effects were attenuated by tree species richness—because herbivory increased and pathogen damage decreased with increasing richness—and were most pronounced for species with soft leaves and narrow climatic niches. However, herbivory and pathogens had contrasting, independent effects on tree growth, with pathogens decreasing and herbivory increasing growth. The positive herbivory effects indicate that trees might be able to (over‐)compensate for local damage at the level of the whole tree. Nevertheless, we found a dependence of these effects on richness, leaf traits and climatic niche characteristics of the tree species. This could mean that the ability for compensation is influenced by both biodiversity loss and tree species identity—including effects of larger‐scale climatic adaptations that have been rarely considered in this context. Our results suggest that herbivory and pathogens have additive but contrasting effects on tree growth. Considering effects of both herbivory and pathogens may thus help to better understand the net effects of damage on tree performance in communities differing in diversity. Moreover, our study shows how species richness and species characteristics (leaf traits and climatic niches) can modify tree growth responses to leaf damage under real‐world conditions.

Changing climate mediates sapsucker (Aves: Sphyrapicus) hybrid zone movement

Hybrid zones, where two divergent taxa meet and interbreed, offer unique opportunities to investigate how climate contributes to reproductive isolation between closely related taxa and how these taxa may respond to climatic changes. Red-naped (Sphyrapicus nuchalis) and Red-breasted (Sphyrapicus ruber) sapsuckers (Aves: Picidae) hybridize along a narrow contact zone that stretches from northern California to British Columbia. The hybrid zone between these species has been studied extensively for more than 100 years and represents an excellent system for investigations of the evolution of reproductive isolation. Shifts in the proportions of phenotypes at hybrid localities since 1910 that were inferred using specimens from museum collections were confirmed using species distribution models. We predicted the historical, current, and future distributions of parental and hybrid sapsuckers using Random Forests models to quantify how climate change is affecting hybrid zone movement in the Pacific Northwest. We found observed distribution shifts of parental sapsuckers were likely the result of climate change over the past 100 years, with these shifts predicted to continue for both sapsuckers over the next 80 years. We found Red-breasted Sapsuckers are predicted to continue to expand, while Red-naped Sapsuckers are predicted to contract substantially under future climate scenarios. As a result of the predicted changes, the amount of overlap in the distribution of these sapsuckers may decrease. Using hybrid phenotypes, we found the climate niche occupied by the hybrid zone is predicted to disappear under future conditions. The disappearance of this climate niche where the two parental species come into contact and hybridize may lead to a substantial reduction in genetic introgression. Understanding the impacts of global climate change on hybrid zones may help us to better understand how speciation has been shaped by climate in the past, as well as how evolution may respond to climate change in the future.

Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources.

Key innovations and climatic niche divergence as drivers of diversification in subtropical Gentianinae in southeastern and eastern Asia

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Geological and climatic changes associated with the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have been suggested as drivers for biological diversification locally and in neighboring regions. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the niche evolution of Tripterospermum (Gentianaceae) and related Asian genera through time.

METHODS

We conducted Species Distribution Modeling using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt). Furthermore, we performed stochastic character mapping and produced disparity-through-time plots, and examined putative key innovations using the binary state speciation and extinction approach (BISSE).

KEY RESULTS

Kuepferia and Sinogentiana prefer the coolest and driest habitat, having rather conserved niches. Despite a tendency for niche evolution, Crawfurdia and Metagentiana are probably restricted to a narrow distribution range because of their poor dispersal ability. In contrast, Tripterospermum has the broadest niche and occurs under the warmest and wettest conditions. A higher degree of niche evolution and a more efficient dispersal mechanism allowed this genus to diversify more and occupy a broader distribution range.

CONCLUSIONS

The QTP genera producing dry capsules, whether displaying niche conservatism (Kuepferia and Sinogentiana) or a tendency for niche evolution (Crawfurdia and Metagentiana), are less species-rich and have a more restricted distribution than Tripterospermum (stronger niche evolution and berry-like fruits). The evolution of berry-like fruits corresponds to increased speciation rates, and could therefore be viewed as a key innovation. In contrast to the majority of studies on plants occurring around the QTP, we find that speciation was probably mediated by niche breadth and dispersal ability rather than geophysical changes.

Different rates of defense evolution and niche preferences in clonal and nonclonal milkweeds (Asclepias spp.)

Given the dual role of many plant traits to tolerate both herbivore attack and abiotic stress, the climatic niche of a species should be integrated into the study of plant defense strategies. Here we investigate the impact of plant reproductive strategy and components of species' climatic niche on the rate of chemical defense evolution in the milkweeds using a common garden experiment of 49 species. We found that across Asclepias species, clonal reproduction repeatedly evolved in lower temperature conditions, in species generally producing low concentrations of a toxic defense (cardenolides). Additionally, we found that rates of cardenolide evolution were lower for clonal than for nonclonal species. We thus conclude that because the clonal strategy is based on survival, long generation times, and is associated with tolerance of herbivory, it may be an alternative to toxicity in colder ecosystems. Taken together, these results indicate that the rate of chemical defense evolution is influenced by the intersection of life-history strategy and climatic niches into which plants radiate.

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.

Adaptive plasticity and niche expansion in an invasive thistle

Phenotypic differentiation in size and fecundity between native and invasive populations of a species has been suggested as a causal driver of invasion in plants. Local adaptation to novel environmental conditions through a micro-evolutionary response to natural selection may lead to phenotypic differentiation and fitness advantages in the invaded range. Local adaptation may occur along a stress tolerance trade-off, favoring individuals that, in benign conditions, shift resource allocation from stress tolerance to increased vigor and fecundity and, therefore, invasiveness. Alternately, the typically disturbed invaded range may select for a plastic, generalist strategy, making phenotypic plasticity the main driver of invasion success. To distinguish between these hypotheses, we performed a field common garden and tested for genetically based phenotypic differentiation, resource allocation shifts in response to water limitation, and local adaptation to the environmental gradient which describes the source locations for native and invasive populations of diffuse knapweed (Centaurea diffusa). Plants were grown in an experimental field in France (naturalized range) under water addition and limitation conditions. After accounting for phenotypic variation arising from environmental differences among collection locations, we found evidence of genetic variation between the invasive and native populations for most morphological and life-history traits under study. Invasive C. diffusa populations produced larger, later maturing, and therefore potentially fitter individuals than native populations. Evidence for local adaptation along a resource allocation trade-off for water limitation tolerance is equivocal. However, native populations do show evidence of local adaptation to an environmental gradient, a relationship which is typically not observed in the invaded range. Broader analysis of the climatic niche inhabited by the species in both ranges suggests that the physiological tolerances of C. diffusa may have expanded in the invaded range. This observation could be due to selection for plastic, "general-purpose" genotypes with broad environmental tolerances.

Does climate limit species richness by limiting individual species' ranges?

Broad-scale geographical variation in species richness is strongly correlated with climate, yet the mechanisms underlying this correlation are still unclear. We test two broad classes of hypotheses to explain this pattern. Bottom-up hypotheses propose that the environment determines individual species' ranges. Ranges then sum up to yield species richness patterns. Top-down hypotheses propose that the environment limits the number of species that occur in a region, but not which ones. We test these two classes of hypotheses using a natural experiment: seasonal changes in environmental variables and seasonal range shifts of 625 migratory birds in the Americas. We show that richness seasonally tracks the environment. By contrast, individual species' geographical distributions do not. Rather, species occupy different sets of environmental conditions in two seasons. Our results are inconsistent with extant bottom-up hypotheses. Instead, a top-down mechanism appears to constrain the number of species that can occur in a given region.

Realized climatic niche of North American plant taxa lagged behind climate during the end of the Pleistocene

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Predicting species responses to climate change has become a dynamic field in global change research. A crucial question in this debate is whether-or-not species have been and will be able to respond quickly enough to keep up with changing climatic conditions.

METHODS

Focusing on fossil pollen records and paleoclimatic simulations, this work assesses the change in realized climatic niches (climatic temporal trajectories) of 20 plant taxa over the last 16000 yr, and whether this tracking has been the same for different climatic niche dimensions.

KEY RESULTS

Climatic factors showed a consistent trend toward warmer temperatures and higher precipitation. Although the response types varied across taxa, species' realized climatic niches lagged in response to changes in climatic conditions. Temperature niches responded to late Pleistocene (16000-11000 yr ago) climate change, but did so at slower rates than changes in climatic conditions during the same period. In contrast, precipitation niches were relatively stable from 16000 to 11000 yr ago, but still lagged behind changes in climatic conditions. Changes in temperature and precipitation niches eventually stabilized during the Holocene (11000-1000 yr ago).

CONCLUSIONS

These results underscore how the climatic niche realized at any one moment represents a subset of the climate conditions in which a taxon can persist, particularly during times of fast climatic change. Variability in the rates of temporal trajectories across evaluated climatic variables showed taxa specific responses to changes in climatic conditions over time and emphasizes the need to incorporate variation, intensity, and duration of lag effects in assessments of the possible effects of climatic change.

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change.

Reconstructing the origins of high-alpine niches and cushion life form in the genus Androsace S.L. (Primulaceae)

Relatively, few species have been able to colonize extremely cold alpine environments. We investigate the role played by the cushion life form in the evolution of climatic niches in the plant genus Androsace s.l., which spreads across the mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere. Using robust methods that account for phylogenetic uncertainty, intraspecific variability of climatic requirements and different life-history evolution scenarios, we show that climatic niches of Androsace s.l. exhibit low phylogenetic signal and that they evolved relatively recently and punctually. Models of niche evolution fitted onto phylogenies show that the cushion life form has been a key innovation providing the opportunity to occupy extremely cold environments, thus contributing to rapid climatic niche diversification in the genus Androsace s.l. We then propose a plausible scenario for the adaptation of plants to alpine habitats.

Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

Modelling the ecological niche from functional traits

The niche concept is central to ecology but is often depicted descriptively through observing associations between organisms and habitats. Here, we argue for the importance of mechanistically modelling niches based on functional traits of organisms and explore the possibilities for achieving this through the integration of three theoretical frameworks: biophysical ecology (BE), the geometric framework for nutrition (GF) and dynamic energy budget (DEB) models. These three frameworks are fundamentally based on the conservation laws of thermodynamics, describing energy and mass balance at the level of the individual and capturing the prodigious predictive power of the concepts of 'homeostasis' and 'evolutionary fitness'. BE and the GF provide mechanistic multi-dimensional depictions of climatic and nutritional niches, respectively, providing a foundation for linking organismal traits (morphology, physiology, behaviour) with habitat characteristics. In turn, they provide driving inputs and cost functions for mass/energy allocation within the individual as determined by DEB models. We show how integration of the three frameworks permits calculation of activity constraints, vital rates (survival, development, growth, reproduction) and ultimately population growth rates and species distributions. When integrated with contemporary niche theory, functional trait niche models hold great promise for tackling major questions in ecology and evolutionary biology.

Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change

In the face of environmental change, species can evolve new physiological tolerances to cope with altered climatic conditions or move spatially to maintain existing physiological associations with particular climates that define each species' climatic niche. When environmental change occurs over short temporal and large spatial scales, vagile species are expected to move geographically by tracking their climatic niches through time. Here, we test for evidence of niche tracking in bird species of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, focusing on 53 species resurveyed nearly a century apart at 82 sites on four elevational transects. Changes in climate and bird distributions resulted in focal species shifting their average climatological range over time. By comparing the directions of these shifts relative to the centroids of species' range-wide climatic niches, we found that 48 species (90.6%) tracked their climatic niche. Analysis of niche sensitivity on an independent set of occurrence data significantly predicted the temperature and precipitation gradients tracked by species. Furthermore, in 50 species (94.3%), site-specific occupancy models showed that the position of each site relative to the climatic niche centroid explained colonization and extinction probabilities better than a null model with constant probabilities. Combined, our results indicate that the factors limiting a bird species' range in the Sierra Nevada in the early 20th century also tended to drive changes in distribution over time, suggesting that climatic models derived from niche theory might be used successfully to forecast where and how to conserve species in the face of climate change.