Optimizing efficiency and resilience of no-take marine protected areas for fish conservation under climate change along the coastlines of China Seas

Climate change is one of the major threats to coastal fish biodiversity, and optimization of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) is imminent. We predicted fish redistribution under climate change in coastal China Seas with joint species distribution modeling and prioritized areas for conservation with Zonation, for which we used core area zonation (CAZ) and additive benefit function (ABF). Based on our results, we devised an expansion plan of no-take MPAs. Under climate change, fish were redistributed northward along the coast. These redistributions were segmented by the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, indicating a possible biogeographical barrier. Under CAZ and ABF, significantly more fish habitat was conserved than under random prioritization (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = -0.36 and -0.62, respectively). The ABF better represented areas with higher species richness, whereas CAZ better represented core habitats for species with narrow distributions. Without accounting for species redistribution, the expanded MPAs were mainly distributed in the northwest of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the north of the Yellow Sea, and the west of the Bohai Sea. When accounting for species redistribution, the proposed MPAs were mainly distributed in the north of the Bohai Sea and southwest of the Yellow Sea, corresponding to the northern species redistributions. These MPAs conserved less habitat for fishes at present but protected more and better quality habitat for fishes in 2050 and 2100 than those MPAs that did not account for species redistribution, indicating improved fish conservation under climate change. Incorporating species redistribution and trade-offs between areas with high species richness and areas that contain habitats for rare species are suggested to address coastal fish conservation under climate change. This work provides valuable information for fish conservation and is a precursor to systematic conservation planning along the coastlines of China Seas.

Prioritizing global tall forests toward the 30 × 30 goals

The Global Deal for Nature sets an ambitious goal to protect 30% of Earth's land and ocean by 2030. The 30 × 30 initiative is a way to allocate conservation resources and extend protection to conserve vulnerable and underprotected ecosystems while reducing carbon emissions to combat climate change. However, most prioritization methods for identifying high-value conservation areas are based on thematic attributes and do not consider vertical habitat structure. Global tall forests represent a rare vertical habitat structure that harbors high species richness in various taxonomic groups and is associated with large amounts of aboveground biomass. Global tall forests should be prioritized when planning global protected areas toward reaching the 30 × 30 goals. We examined the spatial distribution of global tall forests based on the Global Canopy Height 2020 product. We defined global tall forests as areas with the average canopy height above 3 thresholds (20, 25, and 30 m). We quantified the spatial distribution and protection level of global tall forests in high-protection zones, where the 30 × 30 goals are being met or are within reach, and low-protection zones, where there is a low chance of reaching 30 × 30 goals. We quantified the protection level by computing the percentage of global tall forest area protected based on the 2017 World Database on Protected Areas. We also determined the global extent and protection level of undisturbed, mature, tall forests based on the 2020 Global Intact Forest Landscapes mask. In most cases, the percentage of protection decreased as forest height reached the top strata. In the low-protection zones, <30% of forests were protected in almost all tall forest strata. In countries such as Brazil, tall forests had a higher percentage of protection (consistently >30%) compared to forests of lower height, presenting a more effective conservation model than in countries such as the United States, where forest protection was almost uniformly <30% across height strata. Our results show an urgent need to target forest conservation in the greatest height strata, particularly in high-protection areas, where most global tall forests are found. Vegetation vertical structure can inform the decision-making process toward the 30 × 30 goals because it can be used to identify areas of high conservation value for biodiversity protection which also contribute to carbon sequestration.

Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean-Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species' pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km² grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region-the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129-237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.

The ties that bind the sagebrush biome: integrating genetic connectivity into range-wide conservation of greater sage-grouse

Conserving genetic connectivity is fundamental to species persistence, yet rarely is made actionable into spatial planning for imperilled species. Climate change and habitat degradation have added urgency to embrace connectivity into networks of protected areas. Our two-step process integrates a network model with a functional connectivity model, to identify population centres important to maintaining genetic connectivity then to delineate those pathways most likely to facilitate connectivity thereamong for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern ranging across eleven western US states and into two Canadian provinces. This replicable process yielded spatial action maps, able to be prioritized by importance to maintaining range-wide genetic connectivity. We used these maps to investigate the efficacy of 3.2 million ha designated as priority areas for conservation (PACs) to encompass functional connectivity. We discovered that PACs encompassed 41.1% of cumulative functional connectivity-twice the amount of connectivity as random-and disproportionately encompassed the highest-connectivity landscapes. Comparing spatial action maps to impedances to connectivity such as cultivation and woodland expansion allows both planning for future management and tracking outcomes from past efforts.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil loss and sediment export in Upper Bilate River Catchment (UBRC), Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Soil loss is one of the major challenges for agricultural production in the Ethiopian highlands. The rate and distribution of soil loss (SL) and sediment export (SE) are essential to map degradation “hotspot” areas for prioritizing soil and water conservation measures. The objective of this study was to estimate the dynamics of SL and SE in the Upper Bilate River Catchment of Central Ethiopia. The Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to estimate and map SL and SE. The primary input data were rainfall, soil data, land use, and other biophysical parameters of the study area. The model output confirmed that the average total soil loss of the catchment was 36.8 million ton/yr. It is modeled that soil loss doubles within 30 years. The average annual sediment export was about 3.62 ton/ha/yr. The mean annual soil loss of the study area was 23 ton/ha/yr, which exceeded the soil loss tolerance (SLT), estimated to range between (2–18 ton/ha/yr) in Ethiopia. Based on the soil erosion risk level, about 22% of the catchment area was classified as severely degraded, while 62 % was moderately degraded. Severe soil erosion prevails in the sub-watershed (SW)-5, SW-4, and SW-13. Therefore, these sub-watersheds need priority conservation action to restore the ecosystem processes of the study area.

Diversity and dynamics in larval digenean assemblages parasitizing Heleobia parchappii in a freshwater shallow lake from the Southeastern Pampa plain, Argentina

Digeneans have important roles within ecosystems; however, it is estimated that only 14% of the species have been described. Therefore, before being able to detail their role, digenean species’ identification and the diversity present in the ecosystems must be known. In this study, the diversity and the temporal-spatial dynamics of larval digeneans in the freshwater snail Heleobia parchappii were analysed in a shallow lake. Specimens of H. parchappii were collected seasonally at three points during one year and a total of 2871 molluscs were analysed. A total of 23 species of digenea were registered and both the overall prevalence and the composition of the assemblages presented temporal and spatial variations, responding to the differential environmental conditions characteristics (anthropic effect, presence of native forests, and differential use of the habitat by the definitive hosts) of three sampled sites. The assemblages of larval digenean in their first intermediate host support the idea that this area is of great importance in biodiversity, and could be endemic areas of some species of digenean that use reptiles, amphibians and bats as hosts, groups that are at risk of conservation. Protection of these environments is a fundamental pillar in the policies for the conservation of wild flora and fauna.

Global patterns of raptor distribution and protected areas optimal selection to reduce the extinction crises

Current extinction rates are caused by human activities, including habitat destruction. Here we analyze the global patterns of raptor distribution to determine priority areas for conservation. Raptors are top predators that can be used as umbrella species to help the conservation of other species. Our results provide insights into global strategies for conservation of different proportions of the geographic range of raptor species, minimizing socioeconomic conflict. These findings are fundamental to guide conservation actions that may help avert the massive current extinction crises.

Globally, human-caused environmental impacts, such as habitat loss, have seriously impacted raptor species, with some 50% of species having decreasing populations. We analyzed global patterns of distribution of all 557 raptor species, focusing on richness, endemism, geographic range, conservation status, and population trends. Highest species diversity, endemism, species at risk, or restricted species were concentrated in different regions. Patterns of species distribution greatly differed between nocturnal and diurnal species. To test the efficiency of the global protected areas in conserving raptors, we simulated and compared global reserve systems created with strategies aiming at: 1) constraining the existing system into the final solution; and 2) minimizing the socioeconomic cost of reserve selection. We analyzed three targets of species distribution to be protected (10, 20, 30%). The first strategy was more efficient in meeting targets and less efficient in cost and compactness of reserves. Focusing on actions in the existing protected areas is fundamental to consolidate conservation, and politically and economically more viable than creating new reserves. However, creating new reserves is essential to protect more populations throughout the species’ geographic range. Our findings provide a fundamental understanding of reserves to maintain raptor diversity and reduce the global population and species extinction crisis.

The patterns of vascular plant discoveries in China

AIM

(1) To understand geographic patterns of species discovery by examining the effect of growth form, range size, and geographic distribution on discovery probability of vascular plant species in China; (2) to find out which taxa harbor the largest number of undiscovered species and where those species locate; and (3) to find out the determinants of province-level mean discovery time and inventory completeness.

LOCATION

China.

METHODS

We compiled the discovery time and province-level geographic distributions of ~31,000 vascular plant species described between 1753 and 2013 from Flora of China. We used a Cox proportional hazard model to determine the biological and geographic correlates of discovery probability. Accumulation curves of species discoveries were fitted by a logistic discovery model to estimate inventory completeness of different growth forms and of different provinces. We then used linear regression to identify the determinants of mean discovery time and beta regression to identify the determinants of inventory completeness.

RESULTS

We found that species with larger range size and distributed in northeastern part of China have a higher discovery probability. Coastal species were discovered earlier than inland species. Trees and shrubs of seed plants have the highest discovery probability while ferns have the lowest discovery probability. Herbs have the largest number of undiscovered species in China. Most undiscovered species will be found in southwest China, where three global biodiversity hot spots locate. Spatial patterns of mean discovery time and inventory completeness are mainly driven by the total number of species, human population density in an area, and latitude and longitude of a province.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Socioeconomic factors primarily determine the discovery patterns of vascular plants in China. Undiscovered species are most likely to be narrow-ranged, inconspicuous endemic species such as herbs and ferns, which are prone to extinctions and locate in biodiversity hot spots in southwestern China.

Landscape epidemiology of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans: reconciling data limitations and conservation urgency

Starting in 2010, rapid fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines in northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global salamander diversity owing to its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence in ecosystems. While there is a pressing need to develop further research and conservation actions, data limitations inherent to recent pathogen emergence obscure necessary insights into Bsal disease ecology. Here, we use a hierarchical modeling framework to describe Bsal landscape epidemiology of outbreak sites in light of these methodological challenges. Using model selection and machine learning, we find that Bsal presence is associated with humid and relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located in areas characterized by low landscape heterogeneity and low steepness of slope. We further find an association between Bsal presence and high trail density, suggesting that human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover between populations. We then use distribution modeling to show that favorable conditions occur in lowlands influenced by the North Sea, where increased survey effort is needed to determine how Bsal impacts local newt populations, but also in hill- and mountain ranges in northeastern France and the lower half of Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest that these hill- and mountain ranges may act as stepping stones for further spread southward. Our results provide initial insight into regional environmental conditions underlying Bsal epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions for northwestern Europe, and lead us to discuss a wide variety of potential survey and research actions needed to advance future conservation and mitigation efforts.

Extinction Risk Assessment of the Greek Endemic Flora

Simple Summary

This study assesses for the first time all the vascular endemic plant taxa of Greece, according to their decline and rarity. Phylogenetic analysis and its spatial overview highlight areas for conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen of them need to be prioritized, due to their evolutionary distinctiveness. This assessment could act as the baseline and supporting tool for conservation actions, decision- and policy-making for biodiversity, while highlighting the need for a new Red Data Book for the Greek flora.

Abstract

Human-induced biodiversity decline has been on the rise for the past 250 years, due to various causes. What is equally troubling, is that we are unaware which plants are threatened and where they occur. Thus, we are far from reaching Aichi Biodiversity Target 2, i.e., assessing the extinction risk of most species. To that end, based on an extensive occurrence dataset, we performed an extinction risk assessment according to the IUCN Criteria A and B for all the endemic plant taxa occurring in Greece, one of the most biodiverse countries in Europe, in a phylogenetically-informed framework and identified the areas needing conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen endemics need to be prioritized, as they are evolutionary distinct and globally endangered. Mt. Gramos is identified as the most important conservation hotspot in Greece. However, a significant portion of the identified conservation hotspots is not included in any designated Greek protected area, meaning that the Greek protected areas network might need to be at least partially redesigned. In the Anthropocene era, where climate and land-use change are projected to alter biodiversity patterns and may force many species to extinction, our assessment provides the baseline for future conservation research, ecosystem services maintenance, and might prove crucial for the timely, systematic and effective aversion of plant extinctions in Greece.

Plant Endemism Centres and Biodiversity Hotspots in Greece

Biodiversity hotspots (BH) cover a small fraction of the Earth's surface, yet host numerous endemics. Human-induced biodiversity loss has been increasing worldwide, despite attempts to halt the extinction crisis. There is thus an urgent need to efficiently allocate the available conservation funds in an optimised conservation prioritization scheme. Identifying BH and endemism centres (EC) is therefore a valuable tool in conservation prioritization and planning. Even though Greece is one of the most plant species-rich European countries, few studies have dealt with the identification of BH or EC and none has ever incorporated phylogenetic information or extended to the national scale. Consequently, we are unaware of the extent that Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network efficiently protect Greek plant diversity. Here, we located for the first time at a national scale and in a phylogenetic framework, the areas serving as BH and EC, and assessed the effectiveness of the Greek SAC in safeguarding them. BH and EC are mainly located near mountainous areas, and in areas supposedly floristically impoverished, such as the central Aegean islands. A critical re-assessment of the Greek SAC might be needed to minimize the extinction risk of the Greek endemics, by focusing the conservation efforts also on the BH and EC that fall outside the established Greek SAC.

Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios

Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete’s plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete’s unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the ‘Anthropocene’ era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species-area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays-an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.

Using a social-ecological framework to inform the implementation of conservation plans

One of the key determinants of success in biodiversity conservation is how well conservation planning decisions account for the social system in which actions are to be implemented. Understanding elements of how the social and ecological systems interact can help identify opportunities for implementation. Utilizing data from a large-scale conservation initiative in southwestern of Australia, we explored how a social-ecological system framework can be applied to identify how social and ecological factors interact to influence the opportunities for conservation. Using data from semistructured interviews, an online survey, and publicly available data, we developed a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with the conservation of the Fitz-Stirling region. We used this model to identify the relevant variables (remnants of vegetation, stakeholder presence, collaboration between stakeholders, and their scale of management) that affect the implementation of conservation actions in the region. We combined measures for these variables to ascertain how areas associated with different levels of ecological importance coincided with areas associated with different levels of stakeholder presence, stakeholder collaboration, and scales of management. We identified areas that could benefit from different implementation strategies, from those suitable for immediate conservation action to areas requiring implementation over the long term to increase on-the-ground capacity and identify mechanisms to incentivize implementation. The application of a social-ecological framework can help conservation planners and practitioners facilitate the integration of ecological and social data to inform the translation of priorities for action into implementation strategies that account for the complexities of conservation problems in a focused way.

Applying the dark diversity concept to nature conservation

Linking diversity to biological processes is central for developing informed and effective conservation decisions. Unfortunately, observable patterns provide only a proportion of the information necessary for fully understanding the mechanisms and processes acting on a particular population or community. We suggest conservation managers use the often overlooked information relative to species absences and pay particular attention to dark diversity (i.e., a set of species that are absent from a site but that could disperse to and establish there, in other words, the absent portion of a habitat-specific species pool). Together with existing ecological metrics, concepts, and conservation tools, dark diversity can be used to complement and further develop conservation prioritization and management decisions through an understanding of biodiversity relativized by its potential (i.e., its species pool). Furthermore, through a detailed understanding of the population, community, and functional dark diversity, the restoration potential of degraded habitats can be more rigorously assessed and so to the likelihood of successful species invasions. We suggest the application of the dark diversity concept is currently an underappreciated source of information that is valuable for conservation applications ranging from macroscale conservation prioritization to more locally scaled restoration ecology and the management of invasive species.

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.

Consistent scaling of population structure across landscapes despite intraspecific variation in movement and connectivity

Understanding the spatial scale of population structure is fundamental to long-standing tenets of population biology, landscape ecology and conservation. Nonetheless, identifying such scales has been challenging because a key factor that influences scaling - movement among patches or local populations - is a multicausal process with substantial phenotypic and temporal variation. We resolve this problem via a novel application of network modularity. When applied to movements, modularity provides a formal description of the functional aggregation of populations and identifies potentially critical scales for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We first test for modularity using several different types of biologically relevant movements across the entire geographic range of an endangered bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). We then ask whether variation in movement based on (i) age, (ii) sex and (iii) time (annual, seasonal and within-season movements) influences spatial population structure (i.e. modularity) in snail kites. We identified significant modularity in annual dispersal of snail kites (all adults, males only, females only, and juveniles only) and in within-breeding season movements of adults, yet no evidence of modularity in seasonal (non-breeding) movements. For those movements with observed modular structure, we found striking similarities in the spatial configuration of population structure, even though movement properties varied considerably among these different types of movements. Our results suggest that the emergence of modularity in population networks can be robust despite movement heterogeneity and differences in patch-based measures of connectivity. Furthermore, our comparison of the population structure and connectivity across multiple movement phases helps to identify wetland patches most critical to population connectivity at multiple spatiotemporal scales. We argue that understanding modularity in populations may provide a robust complement to existing measures of population structure and connectivity and will help to clarify the limiting roles of movement for populations. Such information is increasingly needed for interpreting population persistence and guiding effective conservation strategies with ongoing environmental change.

Conservation triage or injurious neglect in endangered species recovery

Listing endangered and threatened species under the US Endangered Species Act is presumed to offer a defense against extinction and a solution to achieve recovery of imperiled populations, but only if effective conservation action ensues after listing occurs. The amount of government funding available for species protection and recovery is one of the best predictors of successful recovery; however, government spending is both insufficient and highly disproportionate among groups of species, and there is significant discrepancy between proposed and actualized budgets across species. In light of an increasing list of imperiled species requiring evaluation and protection, an explicit approach to allocating recovery funds is urgently needed. Here I provide a formal decision-theoretic approach focusing on return on investment as an objective and a transparent mechanism to achieve the desired recovery goals. I found that less than 25% of the $1.21 billion/year needed for implementing recovery plans for 1,125 species is actually allocated to recovery. Spending in excess of the recommended recovery budget does not necessarily translate into better conservation outcomes. Rather, elimination of only the budget surplus for "costly yet futile" recovery plans can provide sufficient funding to erase funding deficits for more than 180 species. Triage by budget compression provides better funding for a larger sample of species, and a larger sample of adequately funded recovery plans should produce better outcomes even if by chance. Sharpening our focus on deliberate decision making offers the potential to achieve desired outcomes in avoiding extinction for Endangered Species Act-listed species.

Improving effectiveness of systematic conservation planning with density data

Systematic conservation planning aims to design networks of protected areas that meet conservation goals across large landscapes. The optimal design of these conservation networks is most frequently based on the modeled habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of species, despite evidence that model predictions may not be highly correlated with species density. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed using species density distributions more efficiently conserve populations of all species considered than networks designed using probability of occurrence models. To test this hypothesis, we used the Zonation conservation prioritization algorithm to evaluate conservation network designs based on probability of occurrence versus density models for 26 land bird species in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We assessed the efficacy of each conservation network based on predicted species densities and predicted species diversity. High-density model Zonation rankings protected more individuals per species when networks protected the highest priority 10-40% of the landscape. Compared with density-based models, the occurrence-based models protected more individuals in the lowest 50% priority areas of the landscape. The 2 approaches conserved species diversity in similar ways: predicted diversity was higher in higher priority locations in both conservation networks. We conclude that both density and probability of occurrence models can be useful for setting conservation priorities but that density-based models are best suited for identifying the highest priority areas. Developing methods to aggregate species count data from unrelated monitoring efforts and making these data widely available through ecoinformatics portals such as the Avian Knowledge Network will enable species count data to be more widely incorporated into systematic conservation planning efforts.

Biodiversity comparison among phylogenetic diversity metrics and between three North American prairies

Protection of Earth's ecosystems requires identification of geographical areas of greatest biodiversity. Assessment of biodiversity begins with knowledge of the evolutionary histories of species in a geographic area. Multiple phylogenetic diversity (PD) metrics have been developed to describe biodiversity beyond species counts, but sufficient empirical studies, particularly at fine phylogenetic scales, have not been conducted to provide conservation planners with evidence for incorporating PD metrics into selection of priority regions. We review notable studies that are contributing to a growing database of empirical results, we report on the effect of using high-throughput sequencing to estimate the phylogenies used to calculate PD metrics, and we discuss difficulties in selecting appropriate diversity indices. We focused on two of the most speciose angiosperm families in prairies-Asteraceae and Fabaceae-and compared 12 PD metrics and four traditional measures of biodiversity between three North American prairie sites. The varying results from the literature and from the current data reveal the wide range of applications of PD metrics and the necessity for many more empirical studies. The accumulation of results from further investigations will eventually lead to a scientific understanding upon which conservation planners can make informed decisions about where to apply limited preservation funds.

Building robust conservation plans

Systematic conservation planning optimizes trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and human activities by accounting for socioeconomic costs while aiming to achieve prescribed conservation objectives. However, the most cost-efficient conservation plan can be very dissimilar to any other plan achieving the set of conservation objectives. This is problematic under conditions of implementation uncertainty (e.g., if all or part of the plan becomes unattainable). We determined through simulations of parallel implementation of conservation plans and habitat loss the conditions under which optimal plans have limited chances of implementation and where implementation attempts would fail to meet objectives. We then devised a new, flexible method for identifying conservation priorities and scheduling conservation actions. This method entails generating a number of alternative plans, calculating the similarity in site composition among all plans, and selecting the plan with the highest density of neighboring plans in similarity space. We compared our method with the classic method that maximizes cost efficiency with synthetic and real data sets. When implementation was uncertain--a common reality--our method provided higher likelihood of achieving conservation targets. We found that χ, a measure of the shortfall in objectives achieved by a conservation plan if the plan could not be implemented entirely, was the main factor determining the relative performance of a flexibility enhanced approach to conservation prioritization. Our findings should help planning authorities prioritize conservation efforts in the face of uncertainty about future condition and availability of sites.

The price of conserving avian phylogenetic diversity: a global prioritization approach

The combination of rapid biodiversity loss and limited funds available for conservation represents a major global concern. While there are many approaches for conservation prioritization, few are framed as financial optimization problems. We use recently published avian data to conduct a global analysis of the financial resources required to conserve different quantities of phylogenetic diversity (PD). We introduce a new prioritization metric (ADEPD) that After Downlisting a species gives the Expected Phylogenetic Diversity at some future time. Unlike other metrics, ADEPD considers the benefits to future PD associated with downlisting a species (e.g. moving from Endangered to Vulnerable in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List). Combining ADEPD scores with data on the financial cost of downlisting different species provides a cost-benefit prioritization approach for conservation. We find that under worst-case spending $3915 can save 1 year of PD, while under optimal spending $1 can preserve over 16.7 years of PD. We find that current conservation spending patterns are only expected to preserve one quarter of the PD that optimal spending could achieve with the same total budget. Maximizing PD is only one approach within the wider goal of biodiversity conservation, but our analysis highlights more generally the danger involved in uninformed spending of limited resources.

Benefits to poorly studied taxa of conservation of bird and mammal diversity on islands

Protected area delineation and conservation action are urgently needed on marine islands, but the potential biodiversity benefits of these activities can be difficult to assess due to lack of species diversity information for lesser known taxa. We used linear mixed effects modeling and simple spatial analyses to investigate whether conservation activities based on the diversity of well-known insular taxa (birds and mammals) are likely to also capture the diversity of lesser known taxa (reptiles, amphibians, vascular land plants, ants, land snails, butterflies, and tenebrionid beetles). We assembled total, threatened, and endemic diversity data for both well-known and lesser known taxa and combined these with physical island biogeography characteristics for 1190 islands from 109 archipelagos. Among physical island biogeography factors, island area was the best indicator of diversity of both well-known and little-known taxa. Among taxonomic factors, total mammal species richness was the best indicator of total diversity of lesser known taxa, and the combination of threatened mammal and threatened bird diversity was the best indicator of lesser known endemic richness. The results of other intertaxon diversity comparisons were highly variable, however. Based on our results, we suggest that protecting islands above a certain minimum threshold area may be the most efficient use of conservation resources. For example, using our island database, if the threshold were set at 10 km(2) and the smallest 10% of islands greater than this threshold were protected, 119 islands would be protected. The islands would range in size from 10 to 29 km(2) and would include 268 lesser known species endemic to a single island, along with 11 bird and mammal species endemic to a single island. Our results suggest that for islands of equivalent size, prioritization based on total or threatened bird and mammal diversity may also capture opportunities to protect lesser known species endemic to islands.

Mapping evolutionary process: a multi-taxa approach to conservation prioritization

Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization.

Optimal management of a multispecies shorebird flyway under sea-level rise

Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian-Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea-level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species.

Investing in evolutionary history: implementing a phylogenetic approach for mammal conservation

Under the impact of human activity, global extinction rates have risen a thousand times higher than shown in the fossil record. The resources available for conservation are insufficient to prevent the loss of much of the world's threatened biodiversity during this crisis. Conservation planners have been forced to prioritize their protective activities, in the context of great uncertainty. This has become known as 'the agony of choice'. A range of methods have been proposed for prioritizing species for conservation attention; one of the most strongly supported is prioritizing those species that maximize phylogenetic distinctiveness (PD). We evaluate how a composite measure of extinction risk and phylogenetic isolation (EDGE) has been used to prioritize species according to their degree of unique evolutionary history (evolutionary distinctiveness, ED) weighted by conservation urgency (global endangerment, GE). We review PD-based approaches and provide an updated list of EDGE mammals using the 2010 IUCN Red List. We evaluate how robust this method is to changes in phylogenetic uncertainty, knowledge of taxonomy and extinction risk, and examine how mammalian species that rank highly in EDGE score are representative of the collective from which they are drawn.

Conservation prioritization in widespread species: the use of genetic and morphological data to assess population distinctiveness in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from British Columbia, Canada

Prioritization of efforts to maintain biodiversity is an important component of conservation, but is more often applied to ecosystems or species than within species. We assessed distinctiveness among 27 populations of rainbow trout (Salmonidae: Oncorhynchus mykiss) from British Columbia, Canada, using microsatellite DNA variation (representing historical or contemporary demography) and morphology (representing adaptive variation). Standardized genetic scores, that is, the average deviation across individuals within populations from the overall genetic score generated by factorial correspondence analysis, ranged from 1.05 to 4.90 among populations. Similar standardized morphological scores, generated by principal components analysis, ranged from 1.19 to 5.35. There was little correlation between genetic and morphological distinctiveness across populations, although one population was genetically and morphologically the most distinctive. There was, however, a significant correlation (r = 0.26, P = 0.008) between microsatellite (F_ST) and morphological (P_ST) divergence. We combined measures of allelic richness, genetic variation within, and divergence among, populations and morphological variation to provide a conservation ranking of populations. Our approach can be combined with other measures of biodiversity value (habitat, rarity, human uses, threat status) to rationalize the prioritization of populations, especially for widespread species where geographic isolation across distinct environments promotes intraspecific variability.

Modeling environmentally associated morphological and genetic variation in a rainforest bird, and its application to conservation prioritization

To better understand how environment shapes phenotypic and genetic variation, we explore the relationship between environmental variables across Ecuador and genetic and morphological variation in the wedge-billed woodcreeper (Glyphorynchus spirurus), a common Neotropical rainforest bird species. Generalized dissimilarity models show that variation in amplified fragment length polymorphism markers was strongly associated with environmental variables on both sides of the Andes, but could also partially be explained by geographic distance on the western side of the Andes. Tarsus, wing, tail, and bill lengths and bill depth were well explained by environmental variables on the western side of the Andes, whereas only tarsus length was well explained on the eastern side. Regions that comprise the highest rates of genetic and phenotypic change occur along steep elevation gradients in the Andes. Such environmental gradients are likely to be particularly important for maximizing adaptive diversity to minimize the impacts of climate change. Using a framework for conservation prioritization based on preserving ecological and evolutionary processes, we found little overlap between currently protected areas in Ecuador and regions we predicted to be important in maximizing adaptive variation.