A narrative review on machine learning in diagnosis and prognosis prediction for tongue squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) is the most common subtype of oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC), and it also has the worst prognosis. It is crucial to find an effective way to solve the challenges in diagnosis and prognosis prediction for TSCC. Machine learning (ML) has been widely used in medical research and has shown good performance. It can be used for feature extraction, feature selection, model construction, etc. Radiomics and deep learning (DL), the new components of ML, have also been utilized to explore the relationship between image features and diseases. The current study aimed to highlight the importance of ML as a potential method for addressing the challenges in diagnosis and prognosis prediction of TSCC by reviewing studies on ML in TSCC.

Methods

The studies on ML in TSCC in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure published between the dates of inception of these databases and April 30, 2022, were reviewed.

Key Content and Findings

ML (including radiomics and DL) which was used in diagnosis and prognosis prediction for TSCC, has shown promising performance.

Conclusions

Despite its limitations, ML is still a potential approach that can help to deal with the challenges in diagnosis and prognosis prediction for TSCC. Nevertheless, more efforts are needed to enhance the usefulness of ML in this field.

Anxiety sensitivity as a transdiagnostic risk factor for trajectories of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the AURORA study

Anxiety sensitivity, or fear of anxious arousal, is cross-sectionally associated with a wide array of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae, including symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatization. The current study utilizes a large-scale, multi-site, prospective study of trauma survivors presenting to emergency departments. Hypotheses tested whether elevated anxiety sensitivity in the immediate posttrauma period is associated with more severe and persistent trajectories of common adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the eight weeks posttrauma. Participants from the AURORA study (n = 2,269 recruited from 23 emergency departments) completed self-report assessments over eight weeks posttrauma. Associations between heightened anxiety sensitivity and more severe and/or persistent trajectories of trauma-related symptoms identified by growth mixture modeling were analyzed. Anxiety sensitivity assessed two weeks posttrauma was associated with severe and/or persistent posttraumatic stress, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatic symptoms in the eight weeks posttrauma. Effect sizes were in the small to medium range in multivariate models accounting for various demographic, trauma-related, pre-trauma mental health-related, and personality-related factors. Anxiety sensitivity may be a useful transdiagnostic risk factor in the immediate posttraumatic period identifying individuals at risk for the development of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae. Further, considering anxiety sensitivity is malleable via brief intervention, it could be a useful secondary prevention target. Future research should continue to evaluate associations between anxiety sensitivity and trauma-related pathology.

[Association analysis between genetic variants of matrix metalloproteinase enzyme 2 gene and the blood pressure of children and adolescents]

Objective: To explore the association between genetic variants of matrix metalloproteinase enzyme 2 (MMP2) gene and the blood pressure of children and adolescents. Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed in 2016 and included 4 155 children and adolescents in the urban area of Guangzhou. Physical examinations (including body height, weight, and blood pressure), questionnaires (including general characteristics, physical exercise, parental educational level, household income, etc.), and blood sampling were performed. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the associations of MMP2 genetic variations (rs243865, rs7201) and the genetic risk score (GRS) level with standardized blood pressure. Mediating effect of standardized body mass index (BMI) was further assessed by process analysis in the association between GRS level and blood pressure, and potential additive interaction between physical activity and GRS level was analyzed using the product term in the regression model. Results: A total of 4 155 primary and secondary schoolchildren were finally included in the analysis, consisting of 1 401 (33.7%) second grade pupils of primary school, 1 422 (34.2%) first grade pupils of middle school, and 1 332 (32.1%) first-grade students of senior high school. After adjusting for age, sex, parental educational level, and family income, as compared to the rs243865 TT genotype, the CC/CT genotype increased diastolic blood pressure (DBP) by 0.461 standard deviations (SD) (β for dominant model=0.461, 95%CI 0.199-0.723). When compared to the rs7201 CC genotype, the AA/AC genotype showed 0.147 SD higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) (β for recessive model=0.147, 95%CI 0.014-0.279) and 0.171 SD increased DBP (β for recessive model=0.171, 95%CI 0.039-0.304). For each increment of GRS level, SBP and DBP increased by 0.151 SD (β for dominant model=0.151, 95%CI 0.029-0.272) and 0.242 SD (β=0.242, 95%CI 0.120-0.363), respectively. The mediating effect of BMI accounted for 28.3% and 12.6% of the total effect of GRS on SBP and DBP, respectively. After controlling BMI, the direct effect of GRS on DBP remained statistically significant (P<0.001). The insufficient moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (<0.5 h/d) showed a significant interaction with GRS on SBP under additive scale (β for interaction=0.518, 95%CI 0.088-0.949, P=0.018). Conclusions: rs243865 and rs7201 variants in MMP2 gene are associated with the elevated blood pressure of children and adolescents. Obesity may yield a mediation role in the associations, while insufficient physical activity may have a positively additive interaction with MMP2 genetic variants.

Association of Primary and Booster Vaccination and Prior Infection With SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Severe COVID-19 Outcomes

IMPORTANCE

Data about the association of COVID-19 vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes may guide prevention strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the time-varying association of primary and booster COVID-19 vaccination and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and death.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cohort study of 10.6 million residents in North Carolina from March 2, 2020, through June 3, 2022.

EXPOSURES

COVID-19 primary vaccine series and boosters and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Rate ratio (RR) of SARS-CoV-2 infection and hazard ratio (HR) of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death.

RESULTS

The median age among the 10.6 million participants was 39 years; 51.3% were female, 71.5% were White, and 9.9% were Hispanic. As of June 3, 2022, 67% of participants had been vaccinated. There were 2 771 364 SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a hospitalization rate of 6.3% and mortality rate of 1.4%. The adjusted RR of the primary vaccine series compared with being unvaccinated against infection became 0.53 (95% CI, 0.52-0.53) for BNT162b2, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.51-0.53) for mRNA-1273, and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.50-0.53) for Ad26.COV2.S 10 months after the first dose, but the adjusted HR for hospitalization remained at 0.29 (95% CI, 0.24-0.35) for BNT162b2, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.32) for mRNA-1273, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.29-0.42) for Ad26.COV2.S and the adjusted HR of death remained at 0.23 (95% CI, 0.17-0.29) for BNT162b2, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.11-0.20) for mRNA-1273, and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.19-0.31) for Ad26.COV2.S. For the BNT162b2 primary series, boosting in December 2021 with BNT162b2 had the adjusted RR relative to primary series of 0.39 (95% CI, 0.38-0.40) and boosting with mRNA-1273 had the adjusted RR of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.30-0.34) against infection after 1 month and boosting with BNT162b2 had the adjusted RR of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.86) and boosting with mRNA-1273 had the adjusted RR of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.62) after 3 months. Among all participants, the adjusted RR of Omicron infection compared with no prior infection was estimated at 0.23 (95% CI, 0.22-0.24) against infection, and the adjusted HRs were 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.14) against hospitalization and 0.11 (95% CI, 0.08-0.15) against death after 4 months.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Receipt of primary COVID-19 vaccine series compared with being unvaccinated, receipt of boosters compared with primary vaccination, and prior infection compared with no prior infection were all significantly associated with lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (including Omicron) and resulting hospitalization and death. The associated protection waned over time, especially against infection.

Semiparametric single-index models for optimal treatment regimens with censored outcomes

There is a growing interest in precision medicine, where a potentially censored survival time is often the most important outcome of interest. To discover optimal treatment regimens for such an outcome, we propose a semiparametric proportional hazards model by incorporating the interaction between treatment and a single index of covariates through an unknown monotone link function. This model is flexible enough to allow non-linear treatment-covariate interactions and yet provides a clinically interpretable linear rule for treatment decision. We propose a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach, under which the baseline hazard function is estimated nonparametrically and the unknown link function is estimated via monotone quadratic B-splines. We show that the resulting estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal with a covariance matrix that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound. The optimal treatment rule follows naturally as a linear combination of the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters. Through extensive simulation studies and an application to an AIDS clinical trial, we demonstrate that the treatment rule derived from the single-index model outperforms the treatment rule under the standard Cox proportional hazards model.

Predicting at-risk opioid use three months after ed visit for trauma: Results from the AURORA study

Objective

Whether short-term, low-potency opioid prescriptions for acute pain lead to future at-risk opioid use remains controversial and inadequately characterized. Our objective was to measure the association between emergency department (ED) opioid analgesic exposure after a physical, trauma-related event and subsequent opioid use. We hypothesized ED opioid analgesic exposure is associated with subsequent at-risk opioid use.

Methods

Participants were enrolled in AURORA, a prospective cohort study of adult patients in 29 U.S., urban EDs receiving care for a traumatic event. Exclusion criteria were hospital admission, persons reporting any non-medical opioid use (e.g., opioids without prescription or taking more than prescribed for euphoria) in the 30 days before enrollment, and missing or incomplete data regarding opioid exposure or pain. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess the relationship between ED opioid exposure and at-risk opioid use, defined as any self-reported non-medical opioid use after initial ED encounter or prescription opioid use at 3-months.

Results

Of 1441 subjects completing 3-month follow-up, 872 participants were included for analysis. At-risk opioid use occurred within 3 months in 33/620 (5.3%, CI: 3.7,7.4) participants without ED opioid analgesic exposure; 4/16 (25.0%, CI: 8.3, 52.6) with ED opioid prescription only; 17/146 (11.6%, CI: 7.1, 18.3) with ED opioid administration only; 12/90 (13.3%, CI: 7.4, 22.5) with both. Controlling for clinical factors, adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for at-risk opioid use after ED opioid exposure were: ED prescription only: 4.9 (95% CI 1.4, 17.4); ED administration for analgesia only: 2.0 (CI 1.0, 3.8); both: 2.8 (CI 1.2, 6.5).

Conclusions

ED opioids were associated with subsequent at-risk opioid use within three months in a geographically diverse cohort of adult trauma patients. This supports need for prospective studies focused on the long-term consequences of ED opioid analgesic exposure to estimate individual risk and guide therapeutic decision-making.

Synthesizing studies for comparing different treatment sequences in clinical trials

With advances in cancer treatments and improved patient survival, more patients may go through multiple lines of treatment. It is of clinical importance to choose a sequence of effective treatments (eg, lines of treatment) for individual patients with the goal of optimizing their long-term clinical outcome (eg, survival). Several important issues arise in cancer studies. First, cancer clinical trials are usually conducted by each line of treatment. For a treatment sequence, we may have first line and second line treatment data from two different studies. Second, there is typically a treatment initiation period varying from patient to patient between progression of disease and the start of the second line treatment due to administrative reasons. Additionally, the choice of the second line treatment for patients with progression of disease may depend on their characteristics. We address all these issues and develop semiparametric methods under the potential outcome framework for the estimation of the overall survival probability for a treatment sequence and for comparing different treatment sequences. We establish the large sample properties of the proposed inferential procedures. Simulation studies and an application to a colorectal clinical trial are provided.

Structural covariance of the ventral visual stream predicts posttraumatic intrusion and nightmare symptoms: a multivariate data fusion analysis

Visual components of trauma memories are often vividly re-experienced by survivors with deleterious consequences for normal function. Neuroimaging research on trauma has primarily focused on threat-processing circuitry as core to trauma-related dysfunction. Conversely, limited attention has been given to visual circuitry which may be particularly relevant to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Prior work suggests that the ventral visual stream is directly related to the cognitive and affective disturbances observed in PTSD and may be predictive of later symptom expression. The present study used multimodal magnetic resonance imaging data (n = 278) collected two weeks after trauma exposure from the AURORA study, a longitudinal, multisite investigation of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae. Indices of gray and white matter were combined using data fusion to identify a structural covariance network (SCN) of the ventral visual stream 2 weeks after trauma. Participant's loadings on the SCN were positively associated with both intrusion symptoms and intensity of nightmares. Further, SCN loadings moderated connectivity between a previously observed amygdala-hippocampal functional covariance network and the inferior temporal gyrus. Follow-up MRI data at 6 months showed an inverse relationship between SCN loadings and negative alterations in cognition in mood. Further, individuals who showed decreased strength of the SCN between 2 weeks and 6 months had generally higher PTSD symptom severity over time. The present findings highlight a role for structural integrity of the ventral visual stream in the development of PTSD. The ventral visual stream may be particularly important for the consolidation or retrieval of trauma memories and may contribute to efficient reactivation of visual components of the trauma memory, thereby exacerbating PTSD symptoms. Potentially chronic engagement of the network may lead to reduced structural integrity which becomes a risk factor for lasting PTSD symptoms.

Socio-demographic and trauma-related predictors of depression within eight weeks of motor vehicle collision in the AURORA study

BACKGROUND

This is the first report on the association between trauma exposure and depression from the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA(AURORA) multisite longitudinal study of adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) among participants seeking emergency department (ED) treatment in the aftermath of a traumatic life experience.

METHODS

We focus on participants presenting at EDs after a motor vehicle collision (MVC), which characterizes most AURORA participants, and examine associations of participant socio-demographics and MVC characteristics with 8-week depression as mediated through peritraumatic symptoms and 2-week depression.

RESULTS

Eight-week depression prevalence was relatively high (27.8%) and associated with several MVC characteristics (being passenger v. driver; injuries to other people). Peritraumatic distress was associated with 2-week but not 8-week depression. Most of these associations held when controlling for peritraumatic symptoms and, to a lesser degree, depressive symptoms at 2-weeks post-trauma.

CONCLUSIONS

These observations, coupled with substantial variation in the relative strength of the mediating pathways across predictors, raises the possibility of diverse and potentially complex underlying biological and psychological processes that remain to be elucidated in more in-depth analyses of the rich and evolving AURORA database to find new targets for intervention and new tools for risk-based stratification following trauma exposure.

Mixture survival trees for cancer risk classification

In oncology studies, it is important to understand and characterize disease heterogeneity among patients so that patients can be classified into different risk groups and one can identify high-risk patients at the right time. This information can then be used to identify a more homogeneous patient population for developing precision medicine. In this paper, we propose a mixture survival tree approach for direct risk classification. We assume that the patients can be classified into a pre-specified number of risk groups, where each group has distinct survival profile. Our proposed tree-based methods are devised to estimate latent group membership using an EM algorithm. The observed data log-likelihood function is used as the splitting criterion in recursive partitioning. The finite sample performance is evaluated by extensive simulation studies and the proposed method is illustrated by a case study in breast cancer.

Neighborhood collective efficacy in stressful events: The stress-buffering effect

Although research on neighborhood effects has shown positive outcomes of collective efficacy in mental health, few studies have examined whether its protective role is universally applicable to all residents or the vulnerable population. Building on a stress-buffering model, this study examines whether or not neighborhood collective efficacy serves as a stress buffer to ameliorate the deleterious effects of exposure to stressful events across different population groups. Analyses are conducted based on a city-wide representative sample in Hong Kong linked to suicide events through spatial and temporal information. Neighborhood-level collective efficacy is constructed by the aggregated mean score of individual perceived collective efficacy within the same residential neighborhoods. Results from the logistic regression models show that individuals exposed to suicide in the residential surroundings have a higher risk of mental distress symptoms. Moreover, neighborhood-level collective efficacy tends to alleviate the mental distress upon exposure, but such a stress-buffering effect is only observed in older adults. Our findings provide a new perspective informed by the variation of stress-buffering effect across population groups. Thus, this study contributes to the understandings of neighborhood collective by demonstrating the stress-buffering effects among the vulnerable population.

Evaluating effectiveness of public health intervention strategies for mitigating COVID-19 pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance closure (lockdown), stay-at-home order, mandatory facial mask in public in response to the rapid spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the effectiveness of these NPIs, we propose a nested case-control design with propensity score weighting under the quasi-experiment framework to estimate the average intervention effect on disease transmission across states. We further develop a method to test for factors that moderate intervention effect to assist precision public health intervention. Our method takes account of the underlying dynamics of disease transmission and balance state-level pre-intervention characteristics. We prove that our estimator provides causal intervention effect under assumptions. We apply this method to analyze US COVID-19 incidence cases to estimate the effects of six interventions. We show that lockdown has the largest effect on reducing transmission and reopening bars significantly increase transmission. States with a higher percentage of non-White population are at greater risk of increased R t $$ {R}_t $$ associated with reopening bars.

Self-matched learning to construct treatment decision rules from electronic health records

Electronic health records (EHRs) collected from large-scale health systems provide rich subject-specific information on a broad patient population at a lower cost compared to randomized controlled trials. Thus, EHRs may serve as a complementary resource to provide real-world data to construct individualized treatment rules (ITRs) and achieve precision medicine. However, in the absence of randomization, inferring treatment rules from EHR data may suffer from unmeasured confounding. In this article, we propose a self-matched learning method inspired by the self-controlled case series (SCCS) design to mitigate this challenge. We alleviate unmeasured time-invariant confounding between patients by matching different periods of treatments within the same patient (self-controlled matching) to infer the optimal ITRs. The proposed method constructs a within-subject matched value function for optimizing ITRs and bears similarity to the SCCS design. We examine assumptions that ensure Fisher consistency, and show that our method requires weaker assumptions on unmeasured confounding than alternative methods. Through extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate that self-matched learning has comparable performance to other existing methods when there are no unmeasured confounders, but performs markedly better when unobserved time-invariant confounders are present, which is often the case for EHRs. Sensitivity analyses show that the proposed method is robust under different scenarios. Finally, we apply self-matched learning to estimate the optimal ITRs from type 2 diabetes patient EHRs, which shows our estimated decision rules lead to greater advantages in reducing patients' diabetes-related complications.

The Association of Stress, Metabolic Syndrome, and Systemic Inflammation With Neurocognitive Function in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos and Its Sociocultural Ancillary Study

OBJECTIVES

Identifying sociocultural correlates of neurocognitive dysfunction among Hispanics/Latinos, and their underlying biological pathways, is crucial for understanding disparities in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. We examined cross-sectional associations between stress and neurocognition, and the role that metabolic syndrome (MetS) and systemic inflammation might play in these associations.

METHOD

Participants included 3,045 adults aged 45-75 (56% female, education 0-20+ years, 86% Spanish-speaking, 23% U.S.-born), enrolled in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos and its Sociocultural Ancillary Study. Global neurocognition was the primary outcome and operationalized as the average of the z scores of measures of learning and memory, word fluency, and processing speed. Stress measures included self-report assessments of stress appraisal (perceived and acculturative stress) and exposure to chronic and traumatic stressors. MetS was defined via established criteria including waist circumference, high blood pressure, elevated triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose, and high levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Systemic inflammation was represented by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP).

RESULTS

Separate survey multivariable linear regression models adjusting for covariates showed that higher perceived (b = -0.004, SE = 0.002, p < .05) and acculturative stress (b = -0.004, SE = 0.001, p < .0001) were significantly associated with worse global neurocognition, while lifetime exposure to traumatic stressors was associated with better global neurocognition (b = 0.034, SE = 0.009, p < .001). Neither MetS nor hs-CRP were notable pathways in the association between stress and neurocognition; rather, they were both independently associated with worse neurocognition in models including stress measures (ps < .05).

DISCUSSION

These cross-sectional analyses suggest that stress appraisal, MetS, and systemic inflammation may be targets to reduce neurocognitive dysfunction among Hispanics/Latinos.

Reliably Assessing Duration of Protection for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines

Decision making about vaccination and boosting schedules for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hinges on reliable methods for evaluating the longevity of vaccine protection. We show that modeling of protection as a piecewise linear function of time since vaccination for the log hazard ratio of the vaccine effect provides more reliable estimates of vaccine effectiveness at the end of an observation period and also detects plateaus in protective effectiveness more reliably than the standard method of estimating a constant vaccine effect over each time period. This approach will be useful for analyzing data pertaining to COVID-19 vaccines and other vaccines for which rapid and reliable understanding of vaccine effectiveness over time is desired.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

PARTITIONING AROUND MEDOIDS CLUSTERING AND RANDOM FOREST CLASSIFICATION FOR GIS-INFORMED IMPUTATION OF FLUORIDE CONCENTRATION DATA

Community water fluoridation is an important component of oral health promotion, as fluoride exposure is a well-documented dental caries-preventive agent. Direct measurements of domestic water fluoride content provide valuable information regarding individuals' fluoride exposure and thus caries risk; however, they are logistically challenging to carry out at a large scale in oral health research. This article describes the development and evaluation of a novel method for the imputation of missing domestic water fluoride concentration data informed by spatial autocorrelation. The context is a state-wide epidemiologic study of pediatric oral health in North Carolina, where domestic water fluoride concentration information was missing for approximately 75% of study participants with clinical data on dental caries. A new machine-learning-based imputation method that combines partitioning around medoids clustering and random forest classification (PAMRF) is developed and implemented. Imputed values are filtered according to allowable error rates or target sample size, depending on the requirements of each application. In leave-one-out cross-validation and simulation studies, PAMRF outperforms four existing imputation approaches-two conventional spatial interpolation methods (i.e., inverse-distance weighting, IDW and universal kriging, UK) and two supervised learning methods (k-nearest neighbors, KNN and classification and regression trees, CART). The inclusion of multiply imputed values in the estimation of the association between fluoride concentration and dental caries prevalence resulted in essentially no change in PAMRF estimates but substantial gains in precision due to larger effective sample size. PAMRF is a powerful new method for the imputation of missing fluoride values where geographical information exists.

Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines over a 9-Month Period in North Carolina

BACKGROUND

The duration of protection afforded by coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccines in the United States is unclear. Whether the increase in postvaccination infections during the summer of 2021 was caused by declining immunity over time, the emergence of the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant, or both is unknown.

METHODS

We extracted data regarding Covid-19-related vaccination and outcomes during a 9-month period (December 11, 2020, to September 8, 2021) for approximately 10.6 million North Carolina residents by linking data from the North Carolina Covid-19 Surveillance System and the Covid-19 Vaccine Management System. We used a Cox regression model to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson-Janssen) vaccines in reducing the current risks of Covid-19, hospitalization, and death, as a function of time elapsed since vaccination.

RESULTS

For the two-dose regimens of messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines BNT162b2 (30 μg per dose) and mRNA-1273 (100 μg per dose), vaccine effectiveness against Covid-19 was 94.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 94.1 to 94.9) and 95.9% (95% CI, 95.5 to 96.2), respectively, at 2 months after the first dose and decreased to 66.6% (95% CI, 65.2 to 67.8) and 80.3% (95% CI, 79.3 to 81.2), respectively, at 7 months. Among early recipients of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, effectiveness decreased by approximately 15 and 10 percentage points, respectively, from mid-June to mid-July, when the delta variant became dominant. For the one-dose regimen of Ad26.COV2.S (5 × 1010 viral particles), effectiveness against Covid-19 was 74.8% (95% CI, 72.5 to 76.9) at 1 month and decreased to 59.4% (95% CI, 57.2 to 61.5) at 5 months. All three vaccines maintained better effectiveness in preventing hospitalization and death than in preventing infection over time, although the two mRNA vaccines provided higher levels of protection than Ad26.COV2.S.

CONCLUSIONS

All three Covid-19 vaccines had durable effectiveness in reducing the risks of hospitalization and death. Waning protection against infection over time was due to both declining immunity and the emergence of the delta variant. (Funded by a Dennis Gillings Distinguished Professorship and the National Institutes of Health.).

Blood metabolites predicting mild cognitive impairment in the study of Latinos-investigation of neurocognitive aging (HCHS/SOL)

Introduction

Blood metabolomics‐based biomarkers may be useful to predict measures of neurocognitive aging.

Methods

We tested the association between 707 blood metabolites measured in 1451 participants from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and global cognitive change assessed 7 years later. We further used Lasso penalized regression to construct a metabolomics risk score (MRS) that predicts MCI, potentially identifying a different set of metabolites than those discovered in individual‐metabolite analysis.

Results

We identified 20 metabolites predicting prevalent MCI and/or global cognitive change. Six of them were novel and 14 were previously reported as associated with neurocognitive aging outcomes. The MCI MRS comprised 61 metabolites and improved prediction accuracy from 84% (minimally adjusted model) to 89% in the entire dataset and from 75% to 87% among apolipoprotein E ε4 carriers.

Discussion

Blood metabolites may serve as biomarkers identifying individuals at risk for MCI among US Hispanics/Latinos.

A doubly robust method to handle missing multilevel outcome data with application to the China Health and Nutrition Survey

Missing data are common in longitudinal cohort studies and can lead to bias, particularly in studies with informative missingness. Many common methods for handling informatively missing data in survey samples require correctly specifying a model for missingness. Although doubly robust methods exist to provide unbiased regression coefficients in the presence of missing outcome data, these methods do not account for correlation due to clustering inherent in longitudinal or cluster-sampled studies. In this work, we developed a doubly robust method to estimate the regression of an outcome on a predictor in the presence of missing multilevel data on the outcome, which results in consistent estimation of regression coefficients assuming correct specification of either (1) the probability of missingness or (2) the outcome model. This method involves specification of separate hierarchical models for missingness and for the outcome, conditional on observed auxiliary variables and cluster-specific random effects, to account for correlation among observations. We showed this proposed estimator is doubly robust and derived its asymptotic distribution, conducted simulation studies to compare the method to an existing doubly robust method developed for independent data, and applied the method to data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, an ongoing multilevel longitudinal cohort study.

Neurocognition after motor vehicle collision and adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae within 8 weeks: Initial findings from the AURORA study

BACKGROUND

Previous work has indicated that differences in neurocognitive functioning may predict the development of adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS). Such differences may be vulnerability factors or simply correlates of APNS-related symptoms. Longitudinal studies that measure neurocognitive functioning at the time of trauma are needed to determine whether such differences precede the development of APNS.

METHODS

Here, we present findings from a subsample of 666 ambulatory patients from the AURORA (Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR trumA) study. All patients presented to EDs after a motor vehicle collision (MVC). We examined associations of neurocognitive test performance shortly after MVC with peritraumatic symptoms in the ED and APNS (depression, post-traumatic stress, post-concussive symptoms, and pain) 2 weeks and 8 weeks later. Neurocognitive tests assessed processing speed, attention, verbal reasoning, memory, and social perception.

RESULTS

Distress in the ED was associated with poorer processing speed and short-term memory. Poorer short-term memory was also associated with depression at 2 weeks post-MVC, even after controlling for peritraumatic distress. Finally, higher vocabulary scores were associated with pain 2 weeks post-MVC.

LIMITATIONS

Self-selection biases among those who present to the ED and enroll in the study limit generalizability. Also, it is not clear whether observed neurocognitive differences predate MVC exposure or arise in the immediate aftermath of MVC exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that processing speed and short-term memory may be useful predictors of trauma-related characteristics and the development of some APNS, making such measures clinically-relevant for identifying at-risk individuals.

Abstract WMP22: Association Of Life’S Simple 7 With Brain Imaging Outcomes Among Hispanics/latinos In The Hispanic Community Health Study/study Of Latinos And The Investigation Of Neurocognitive Aging Study: Preliminary Results

Background: Life’s Simple 7 (LS7) include not smoking, having a healthy diet pattern, adequate physical activity, healthy body weight, and healthy blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose. Better cardiovascular health metrics, measured by increasing LS7 scores, was associated with improved cognitive function.

Purpose: Investigate the effect of LS7 on brain imaging outcomes in Hispanics/Latinos participating of the SOL-INCA sub-study.

Methods: Hispanics/Latinos adults from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) who participated in the SOL - Investigation of Neurocognitive Aging Magnetic Resonance Imaging (SOL-INCA MRI) ancillary study underwent 3T brain MR imaging. LS7 scores and brain volumes were calculated. Volumes of interest included total brain, total and regional grey matter (frontal, temporal, parietal, and occipital), total white matter, total CSF, lateral ventricle, and white matter hyperintensity (WMH). WMH values were log-transformed. All MRI volumes were residualized for total cranial volume prior to analysis. The influence of LS7 scores on MRI outcomes was investigated using linear regression analysis adjusted by baseline characteristics. These included sex, height, immigrant status and years of residence in the US, age at MRI scan, Hispanic/Latino background, level of education, household income, insurance status, and language preference.

Results: A total of 1,534 participants (males 33%) were included in the study. The average age (mean±SD) was 60±10 and the average LS7 score 7±2. In the adjusted model, increasing LS7 scores were associated with larger cerebral white (β=1.40; p≤0.001) and frontal grey volumes (β=0.33; p≤0.001) as well as smaller CSF (β=-1.26; p≤0.001) and WMH volumes (β=-0.01; p≤0.001). The association of higher LS7 scores and better brain MR outcomes was observed in both males and females.

Conclusions: Higher LS7 scores are associated with improved biomarkers of brain health. Further studies are necessary to determine if the anatomic changes observed correlate with cognitive performance.

Efficient Multiple Imputation for Sensitivity Analysis of Recurrent Events Data with Informative Censoring

Missing data are commonly encountered in clinical trials due to dropout or nonadherence to study procedures. In trials in which recurrent events are of interest, the observed count can be an undercount of the events if a patient drops out before the end of the study. In many applications, the data are not necessarily missing at random and it is often not possible to test the missing at random assumption. Consequently, it is critical to conduct sensitivity analysis. We develop a control-based multiple imputation method for recurrent events data, where patients who drop out of the study are assumed to have a similar response profile to those in the control group after dropping out. Specifically, we consider the copy reference approach and the jump to reference approach. We model the recurrent event data using a semiparametric proportional intensity frailty model with the baseline hazard function completely unspecified. We develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and inference procedures. We then impute the missing data based on the large sample distribution of the resulting estimators. The variance estimation is corrected by a bootstrap procedure. Simulation studies demonstrate the proposed method performs well in practical settings. We provide applications to two clinical trials.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Cox Proportional Hazards Model with a Change Hyperplane

We propose a Cox proportional hazards model with a change hyperplane to allow the effect of risk factors to differ depending on whether a linear combination of baseline covariates exceeds a threshold. The proposed model is a natural extension of the change-point hazards model. We maximize the partial likelihood function for estimation and suggest an m-out-of-n bootstrapping procedure for inference. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the estimators and show that the estimators for the change hyperplane converge in distribution to an integrated composite Poisson process defined on a multidimensional space. Finally, the numerical performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated using simulation studies and an analysis of the Cardiovascular Health Study.

Anticholinergic Drug Burden and Neurocognitive Performance in the Study of Latinos-Investigation of Neurocognitive Aging

BACKGROUND

Studies of cumulative anticholinergic drug burden on cognitive function and impairment are emerging, yet few for Hispanics/Latinos.

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations between anticholinergic use and neurocognitive performance outcomes among diverse Hispanics/Latinos.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included diverse Hispanic/Latino participants, enrolled in the Study of Latinos-Investigation of Neurocognitive, from New York, Chicago, Miami, and San Diego (n = 6,249). Survey linear regression examined associations between anticholinergic use (measured during baseline [Visit 1] and average 7-year follow up [Visit 2]) with global cognition, episodic learning, memory, phonemic fluency, processing speed, executive functioning, and average 7-year change.

RESULTS

Anticholinergic use was associated with lower cognitive global cognition (β= -0.21; 95% CI [-0.36; -0.05]), learning (β= -0.27; 95% CI [-0.47; -0.07]), memory (β= -0.22; 95% CI [-0.41; -0.03]), and executive functioning (β= -0.22; 95% CI [-0.40; -0.03]) scores, particularly among those who took anticholinergics at both visits. Anticholinergic use was associated with faster decline in global cognition, learning, and verbal fluency (β: -0.28 [95% CI: -0.55, -0.01]; β: -0.28 [95% CI: -0.55, -0.01]; β: -0.25, [95% CI -0.47, -0.04], respectively). Sex modified associations between anticholinergic use with global cognition, learning, and executive functioning (F3 = 3.59, F3 = 2.84, F3 = 3.88, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Anticholinergic use was associated with lower neurocognitive performance, especially among those who used anticholinergics at both visits, among a study population of diverse Hispanics/Latinos. Findings will support evidence-based decisions regarding anticholinergic prescriptions and efforts to minimize cognitive impact.

Non-asymptotic Properties of Individualized Treatment Rules from Sequentially Rule-Adaptive Trials

Learning optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) has become increasingly important in the modern era of precision medicine. Many statistical and machine learning methods for learning optimal ITRs have been developed in the literature. However, most existing methods are based on data collected from traditional randomized controlled trials and thus cannot take advantage of the accumulative evidence when patients enter the trials sequentially. It is also ethically important that future patients should have a high probability to be treated optimally based on the updated knowledge so far. In this work, we propose a new design called sequentially rule-adaptive trials to learn optimal ITRs based on the contextual bandit framework, in contrast to the response-adaptive design in traditional adaptive trials. In our design, each entering patient will be allocated with a high probability to the current best treatment for this patient, which is estimated using the past data based on some machine learning algorithm (for example, outcome weighted learning in our implementation). We explore the tradeoff between training and test values of the estimated ITR in single-stage problems by proving theoretically that for a higher probability of following the estimated ITR, the training value converges to the optimal value at a faster rate, while the test value converges at a slower rate. This problem is different from traditional decision problems in the sense that the training data are generated sequentially and are dependent. We also develop a tool that combines martingale with empirical process to tackle the problem that cannot be solved by previous techniques for i.i.d. data. We show by numerical examples that without much loss of the test value, our proposed algorithm can improve the training value significantly as compared to existing methods. Finally, we use a real data study to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Prior histories of posttraumatic stress disorder and major depression and their onset and course in the three months after a motor vehicle collision in the AURORA study

BACKGROUND

A better understanding of the extent to which prior occurrences of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive episode (MDE) predict psychopathological reactions to subsequent traumas might be useful in targeting posttraumatic preventive interventions.

METHODS

Data come from 1306 patients presenting to 29 U.S. emergency departments (EDs) after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) in the advancing understanding of recovery after trauma study. Patients completed self-reports in the ED and 2-weeks, 8-weeks, and 3-months post-MVC. Associations of pre-MVC probable PTSD and probable MDE histories with subsequent 3-months post-MVC probable PTSD and probable MDE were examined along with mediation through intervening peritraumatic, 2-, and 8-week disorders.

RESULTS

27.6% of patients had 3-month post-MVC probable PTSD and/or MDE. Pre-MVC lifetime histories of these disorders were not only significant (relative risk = 2.6-7.4) but were dominant (63.1% population attributable risk proportion [PARP]) predictors of this 3-month outcome, with 46.6% prevalence of the outcome among patients with pre-MVC disorder histories versus 9.9% among those without such histories. The associations of pre-MVC lifetime disorders with the 3-month outcome were mediated largely by 2- and 8-week probable PTSD and MDE (PARP decreasing to 22.8% with controls for these intervening disorders). Decomposition showed that pre-MVC lifetime histories predicted both onset and persistence of these intervening disorders as well as the higher conditional prevalence of the 3-month outcome in the presence of these intervening disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessments of pre-MVC PTSD and MDE histories and follow-ups at 2 and 8 weeks could help target early interventions for psychopathological reactions to MVCs.

Bayesian inference and dynamic prediction of multivariate joint model with functional data: An application to Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a severe neurodegenerative disorder impairing multiple domains, for example, cognition and behavior. Assessing the risk of AD progression and initiating timely interventions at early stages are critical to improve the quality of life for AD patients. Due to the heterogeneous nature and complex mechanisms of AD, one single longitudinal outcome is insufficient to assess AD severity and disease progression. Therefore, AD studies collect multiple longitudinal outcomes, including cognitive and behavioral measurements, as well as structural brain images such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). How to utilize the multivariate longitudinal outcomes and MRI data to make efficient statistical inference and prediction is an open question. In this article, we propose a multivariate joint model with functional data (MJM-FD) framework that relates multiple correlated longitudinal outcomes to a survival outcome, and use the scalar-on-function regression method to include voxel-based whole-brain MRI data as functional predictors in both longitudinal and survival models. We adopt a Bayesian paradigm to make statistical inference and develop a dynamic prediction framework to predict an individual's future longitudinal outcomes and risk of a survival event. We validate the MJM-FD framework through extensive simulation studies and apply it to the motivating Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study.

Improving trial generalizability using observational studies

Complementary features of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies (OSs) can be used jointly to estimate the average treatment effect of a target population. We propose a calibration weighting estimator that enforces the covariate balance between the RCT and OS, therefore improving the trial-based estimator's generalizability. Exploiting semiparametric efficiency theory, we propose a doubly robust augmented calibration weighting estimator that achieves the efficiency bound derived under the identification assumptions. A nonparametric sieve method is provided as an alternative to the parametric approach, which enables the robust approximation of the nuisance functions and data-adaptive selection of outcome predictors for calibration. We establish asymptotic results and confirm the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators by simulation experiments and an application on the estimation of the treatment effect of adjuvant chemotherapy for early-stage non-small cell lung patients after surgery. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Dynamic COVID risk assessment accounting for community virus exposure from a spatial-temporal transmission model

COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented negative impacts on our society, including further exposing inequity and disparity in public health. To study the impact of socioeconomic factors on COVID transmission, we first propose a spatial-temporal model to examine the socioeconomic heterogeneity and spatial correlation of COVID-19 transmission at the community level. Second, to assess the individual risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after a positive diagnosis, we propose a dynamic, varying-coefficient model that integrates individual-level risk factors from electronic health records (EHRs) with community-level risk factors. The underlying neighborhood prevalence of infections (both symptomatic and pre-symptomatic) predicted from the previous spatial-temporal model is included in the individual risk assessment so as to better capture the background risk of virus exposure for each individual. We design a weighting scheme to mitigate multiple selection biases inherited in EHRs of COVID patients. We analyze COVID transmission data in New York City (NYC, the epicenter of the first surge in the United States) and EHRs from NYC hospitals, where time-varying effects of community risk factors and significant interactions between individual- and community-level risk factors are detected. By examining the socioeconomic disparity of infection risks and interaction among the risk factors, our methods can assist public health decision-making and facilitate better clinical management of COVID patients.

A semiparametric Gumbel regression model for analyzing longitudinal data with non-normal tails

Abnormal longitudinal values in biomarkers can be a sign of abnormal status or signal development of a disease. Identifying new biomarkers for early and efficient disease detection is crucial for disease prevention. Compared to the majority of the healthy general population, abnormal values are located within the tails of the biomarker distribution. Thus, parametric regression models that accommodate abnormal values in biomarkers can better detect the association between biomarkers and disease. In this article, we propose semiparametric Gumbel regression models for (1) longitudinal continuous biomarker outcomes, (2) flexibly modeling the time-effect on the outcome, and (3) accounting for the measurement error in biomarker measurements. We adopted the EM algorithm in combination with a two-dimensional grid search to estimate regression parameters and a function of time-effect. We proposed an efficient asymptotic variance estimator for regression parameter estimates. The proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased in both theory and simulation studies. We applied the proposed model and two other models to investigate associations between fasting blood glucose biomarkers and potential risk factors from a diabetes ancillary study to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The real data application was illustrated by fitting the proposed regression model and graphically evaluating the goodness-of-fit value.

Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Major Depression After a Motor Vehicle Collision

IMPORTANCE

A substantial proportion of the 40 million people in the US who present to emergency departments (EDs) each year after traumatic events develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or major depressive episode (MDE). Accurately identifying patients at high risk in the ED would facilitate the targeting of preventive interventions.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a prediction tool based on ED reports after a motor vehicle collision to predict PTSD or MDE 3 months later.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study is a longitudinal study that examined adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequalae among patients who presented to 28 US urban EDs in the immediate aftermath of a traumatic experience. Enrollment began on September 25, 2017. The 1003 patients considered in this diagnostic/prognostic report completed 3-month assessments by January 31, 2020. Each patient received a baseline ED assessment along with follow-up self-report surveys 2 weeks, 8 weeks, and 3 months later. An ensemble machine learning method was used to predict 3-month PTSD or MDE from baseline information. Data analysis was performed from November 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 was used to assess PTSD and the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Depression Short-Form 8b to assess MDE.

RESULTS

A total of 1003 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 34.5 [24-43] years; 715 [weighted 67.9%] female; 100 [weighted 10.7%] Hispanic, 537 [weighted 52.7%] non-Hispanic Black, 324 [weighted 32.2%] non-Hispanic White, and 42 [weighted 4.4%] of non-Hispanic other race or ethnicity were included in this study. A total of 274 patients (weighted 26.6%) met criteria for 3-month PTSD or MDE. An ensemble machine learning model restricted to 30 predictors estimated in a training sample (patients from the Northeast or Midwest) had good prediction accuracy (mean [SE] area under the curve [AUC], 0.815 [0.031]) and calibration (mean [SE] integrated calibration index, 0.040 [0.002]; mean [SE] expected calibration error, 0.039 [0.002]) in an independent test sample (patients from the South). Patients in the top 30% of predicted risk accounted for 65% of all 3-month PTSD or MDE, with a mean (SE) positive predictive value of 58.2% (6.4%) among these patients at high risk. The model had good consistency across regions of the country in terms of both AUC (mean [SE], 0.789 [0.025] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.809 [0.023] using the Midwest as the test sample) and calibration (mean [SE] integrated calibration index, 0.048 [0.003] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.024 [0.001] using the Midwest as the test sample; mean [SE] expected calibration error, 0.034 [0.003] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.025 [0.001] using the Midwest as the test sample). The most important predictors in terms of Shapley Additive Explanations values were symptoms of anxiety sensitivity and depressive disposition, psychological distress in the 30 days before motor vehicle collision, and peritraumatic psychosomatic symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this study suggest that a short set of questions feasible to administer in an ED can predict 3-month PTSD or MDE with good AUC, calibration, and geographic consistency. Patients at high risk can be identified in the ED for targeting if cost-effective preventive interventions are developed.

A prospective examination of sex differences in posttraumatic autonomic functioning

BACKGROUND

Cross-sectional studies have found that individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) exhibit deficits in autonomic functioning. While PTSD rates are twice as high in women compared to men, sex differences in autonomic functioning are relatively unknown among trauma-exposed populations. The current study used a prospective design to examine sex differences in posttraumatic autonomic functioning.

METHODS

192 participants were recruited from emergency departments following trauma exposure (Mean age = 35.88, 68.2% female). Skin conductance was measured in the emergency department; fear conditioning was completed two weeks later and included measures of blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and high frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV). PTSD symptoms were assessed 8 weeks after trauma.

RESULTS

2-week systolic BP was significantly higher in men, while 2-week HR was significantly higher in women, and a sex by PTSD interaction suggested that women who developed PTSD demonstrated the highest HR levels. Two-week HF-HRV was significantly lower in women, and a sex by PTSD interaction suggested that women with PTSD demonstrated the lowest HF-HRV levels. Skin conductance response in the emergency department was associated with 2-week HR and HF-HRV only among women who developed PTSD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that there are notable sex differences in autonomic functioning among trauma-exposed individuals. Differences in sympathetic biomarkers (BP and HR) may have implications for cardiovascular disease risk given that sympathetic arousal is a mechanism implicated in this risk among PTSD populations. Future research examining differential pathways between PTSD and cardiovascular risk among men versus women is warranted.

Brain-Based Biotypes of Psychiatric Vulnerability in the Acute Aftermath of Trauma

OBJECTIVE

Major negative life events, such as trauma exposure, can play a key role in igniting or exacerbating psychopathology. However, few disorders are diagnosed with respect to precipitating events, and the role of these events in the unfolding of new psychopathology is not well understood. The authors conducted a multisite transdiagnostic longitudinal study of trauma exposure and related mental health outcomes to identify neurobiological predictors of risk, resilience, and different symptom presentations.

METHODS

A total of 146 participants (discovery cohort: N=69; internal replication cohort: N=77) were recruited from emergency departments within 72 hours of a trauma and followed for the next 6 months with a survey, MRI, and physiological assessments.

RESULTS

Task-based functional MRI 2 weeks after a motor vehicle collision identified four clusters of individuals based on profiles of neural activity reflecting threat reactivity, reward reactivity, and inhibitory engagement. Three clusters were replicated in an independent sample with a variety of trauma types. The clusters showed different longitudinal patterns of posttrauma symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide a novel characterization of heterogeneous stress responses shortly after trauma exposure, identifying potential neuroimaging-based biotypes of trauma resilience and psychopathology.

Evaluating the Efficacy of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines

A large number of studies are being conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of candidate vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Most phase 3 trials have adopted virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 as the primary efficacy end point, although laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is also of interest. In addition, it is important to evaluate the effect of vaccination on disease severity. To provide a full picture of vaccine efficacy and make efficient use of available data, we propose using SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, and severe COVID-19 as dual or triple primary end points. We demonstrate the advantages of this strategy through realistic simulation studies. Finally, we show how this approach can provide rigorous interim monitoring of the trials and efficient assessment of the durability of vaccine efficacy.

A multistate transition model for statin-induced myopathy and statin discontinuation

The overarching goal of this study was to simultaneously model the dynamic relationships among statin exposure, statin discontinuation, and potentially statin-related myopathic outcomes. We extracted data from the Indiana Network of Patient Care for 134,815 patients who received statin therapy between January 4, 2004, and December 31, 2008. All individuals began statin treatment, some discontinued statin use, and some experienced myopathy and/or rhabdomyolysis while taking the drug or after discontinuation. We developed a militate model to characterize 12 transition probabilities among six different states defined by use or discontinuation of statin and its associated myopathy or rhabdomyolysis. We found that discontinuation of statin therapy was common and frequently early, with 44.4% of patients discontinuing therapy after 1 month, and discontinuation is a strong indicator for statin-induced myopathy (risk ratio, 10.8; p < 0.05). Women more likely than men (p < 0.05) and patients aged 65 years and older had a higher risk than those aged younger than 65 years to discontinue statin use or experience myopathy. In conclusion, we introduce an innovative multistate model that allows clear depiction of the relationship between statin discontinuation and statin-induced myopathy. For the first time, we have successfully demonstrated and quantified the relative risk of myopathy between patients who continued and discontinued statin therapy. Age and sex were two strong risk factors for both statin discontinuation and incident myopathy.

A parsimonious personalized dose-finding model via dimension reduction

Learning an individualized dose rule in personalized medicine is a challenging statistical problem. Existing methods often suffer from the curse of dimensionality, especially when the decision function is estimated nonparametrically. To tackle this problem, we propose a dimension reduction framework that effectively reduces the estimation to a lower-dimensional subspace of the covariates. We exploit that the individualized dose rule can be defined in a subspace spanned by a few linear combinations of the covariates, leading to a more parsimonious model. Also, our framework does not require the inverse probability of the propensity score under observational studies due to a direct maximization of the value function. This distinguishes us from the outcome weighted learning framework, which also solves decision rules directly. Under the same framework, we further propose a pseudo-direct learning approach focuses more on estimating the dimensionality-reduced subspace of the treatment outcome. Parameters in both approaches can be estimated efficiently using an orthogonality constrained optimization algorithm on the Stiefel manifold. Under mild regularity assumptions, the asymptotic normality results of the proposed estimators can are established, respectively. We also derive the consistency and convergence rate for the value function under the estimated optimal dose rule. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches through extensive simulation studies and a warfarin pharmacogenetic dataset.

Thalamic volume and fear extinction interact to predict acute posttraumatic stress severity

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with lower gray matter volume (GMV) in brain regions critical for extinction of learned threat. However, relationships among volume, extinction learning, and PTSD symptom development remain unclear. We investigated subcortical brain volumes in regions supporting extinction learning and fear-potentiated startle (FPS) to understand brain-behavior interactions that may impact PTSD symptom development in recently traumatized individuals. Participants (N = 99) completed magnetic resonance imaging and threat conditioning two weeks following trauma exposure as part of a multisite observational study to understand the neuropsychiatric effects of trauma (AURORA Study). Participants completed self-assessments of PTSD (PTSD Checklist for DSM-5; PCL-5), dissociation, and depression symptoms two- and eight-weeks post-trauma. We completed multiple regressions to investigate relationships between FPS during late extinction, GMV, and PTSD symptom development. The interaction between thalamic GMV and FPS during late extinction at two weeks post-trauma predicted PCL-5 scores eight weeks (t (75) = 2.49, β = 0.28, p = 0.015) post-trauma. Higher FPS predicted higher PCL-5 scores in the setting of increased thalamic GMV. Meanwhile, lower FPS also predicted higher PCL-5 scores in the setting of decreased thalamic GMV. Thalamic GMV and FPS interactions also predicted posttraumatic dissociative and depressive symptoms. Amygdala and hippocampus GMV by FPS interactions were not associated with posttraumatic symptom development. Taken together, thalamic GMV and FPS during late extinction interact to contribute to adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric outcomes. Multimodal assessments soon after trauma have the potential to distinguish key phenotypes vulnerable to posttraumatic neuropsychiatric outcomes.

Classification and Prediction of Post-Trauma Outcomes Related to PTSD Using Circadian Rhythm Changes Measured via Wrist-Worn Research Watch in a Large Longitudinal Cohort

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is a psychiatric condition resulting from threatening or horrifying events. We hypothesized that circadian rhythm changes, measured by a wrist-worn research watch are predictive of post-trauma outcomes.

APPROACH

1618 post-trauma patients were enrolled after admission to emergency departments (ED). Three standardized questionnaires were administered at week eight to measure post-trauma outcomes related to PTSD, sleep disturbance, and pain interference with daily life. Pulse activity and movement data were captured from a research watch for eight weeks. Standard and novel movement and cardiovascular metrics that reflect circadian rhythms were derived using this data. These features were used to train different classifiers to predict the three outcomes derived from week-eight surveys. Clinical surveys administered at ED were also used as features in the baseline models.

RESULTS

The highest cross-validated performance of research watch-based features was achieved for classifying participants with pain interference by a logistic regression model, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.70. The ED survey-based model achieved an AUC of 0.77, and the fusion of research watch and ED survey metrics improved the AUC to 0.79.

SIGNIFICANCE

This work represents the first attempt to predict and classify post-trauma symptoms from passive wearable data using machine learning approaches that leverage the circadian desynchrony in a potential PTSD population.

Evaluating Effectiveness of Public Health Intervention Strategies for Mitigating COVID-19 Pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance closure (lockdown), stay-at-home order, mandatory facial mask in public in response to the rapid spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the effectiveness of these NPIs, we propose a nested case-control design with propensity score weighting under the quasi-experiment framework to estimate the average intervention effect on disease transmission across states. We further develop a method to test for factors that moderate intervention effect to assist precision public health intervention. Our method takes account of the underlying dynamics of disease transmission and balance state-level pre-intervention characteristics. We prove that our estimator provides causal intervention effect under assumptions. We apply this method to analyze US COVID-19 incidence cases to estimate the effects of six interventions. We show that lockdown has the largest effect on reducing transmission and reopening bars significantly increase transmission. States with a higher percentage of non-white population are at greater risk of increased $R_t$ associated with reopening bars.