Why Maximizing Quality-Adjusted Life Years, rather than Reducing HIV Incidence, Must Remain Our Objective in Addressing the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

With efficacious behavioral, biomedical, and structural interventions available, combination implementation strategies are being implemented to combat HIV/AIDS across settings internationally. However, priority statements from national and international bodies make it unclear whether the objective should be the reduction in HIV incidence or the maximization of health, most commonly measured with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Building off a model-based evaluation of HIV care interventions in British Columbia, Canada, we compare the optimal sets of interventions that would be identified using HIV infections averted, and QALYs as the primary outcome in a cost-effectiveness analysis. We found an explicit focus on averting new infections undervalues the health benefits derived from antiretroviral therapy, resulting in suboptimal and potentially harmful funding recommendations.

Risk Factor Reversal in Studies of Infectious Disease: Making Counterintuitive Results Intuitive Again

A previously published study reported the seemingly paradoxical finding that men who have sex with men status was strongly protective and recent sexual abstinence strongly deleterious in relation to mortality prognosis. We explain why these results are entirely logical and that the counterintuitive direction of the effects derives from the comparison group implied by the study design.

Analysis of Pharmaceutical Industry Marketing of Stimulants, 2014 Through 2018

This study examines the number and dollar amount of payments to physicians from companies marketing prescription stimulant medications.

HIV-Related Stigma Among Healthcare Providers in Different Healthcare Settings: A Cross-Sectional Study in Kerman, Iran

Background: Stigmatizing attitudes among healthcare providers are an important barrier to accessing services among people living with HIV (PLHIV). This cross-sectional study aimed to assess the status and correlates of HIV-related stigma among healthcare providers in Kerman, Iran.

Methods: Using a validated and pilot-tested stigma scale questionnaire, we measured HIV-related stigma among 400 healthcare providers recruited from three teaching hospitals (n=363), private sectors (n=28), and the only voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) center (n=9) in Kerman city. Data were gathered using self-administered questionnaires at participants’ workplace during Fall 2016. To examine the correlates of stigmatizing attitudes, we constructed bivariable and multivariable linear regression models.

Results: The mean ± standard deviation (SD) of stigma score was 25.95 ± 7.20 out of the possible 50, with higher scores reflecting more stigmatizing attitudes. Paramedics, nurses’ aides, and housekeeping staff had the highest, and VCT personnel had the lowest average stigma scores, respectively. Multivariable regression analyses showed that prior experience of working with PLHIV (β=-2.48; P=.03), exposure to HIV-related educational courses (β=-2.03; P=.02), and <10 years of work experience (β=-2.70; P<.001) were associated with lower stigma scores.

Conclusion: Our findings highlight the need for health managers to provide training opportunities for healthcare providers, including programs that focus on improving HIV-related knowledge for healthcare providers. Enforcing policies that aim to reduce HIV-related stigma and discrimination among healthcare providers in Iran are urgently needed.

Association of Racial/Ethnic Segregation With Treatment Capacity for Opioid Use Disorder in Counties in the United States

Importance

Treatment with methadone or buprenorphine is the current standard of care for opioid use disorder. Given the paucity of research identifying which patients will respond best to which medication, both medications should be accessible to all patients so that patients can determine which works best for them. However, given differences in the historical contexts of their initial implementation, access to each of these medications may vary along racial/ethnic lines.

Objective

To examine the extent to which capacity to provide methadone and buprenorphine vary with measures of racial/ethnic segregation.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study included all counties and county-equivalent divisions in the US in 2016. Data on racial/ethnic population distribution were derived from the American Community Survey, and data on locations of facilities providing methadone and buprenorphine were obtained from Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration databases. Data were analyzed from August 22, 2018, to September 11, 2019.

Exposures

Two county-level measures of racial/ethnic segregation, including dissimilarity (representing the proportion of African American or Hispanic/Latino residents who would need to move census tracts to achieve a uniform spatial distribution of the population by race/ethnicity) and interaction (representing the probability that an African American or Hispanic/Latino resident will interact with a white resident and vice versa, assuming random mixing across census tracts).

Main Outcomes and Measures

County-level capacity to provide methadone or buprenorphine, defined as the number of facilities providing a medication per 100 000 population.

Results

Among 3142 US counties, there were 1698 facilities providing methadone (0.6 facilities per 100 000 population) and 18 868 facilities providing buprenorphine (5.9 facilities per 100 000 population). Each 1% decrease in probability of interaction of an African American resident with a white resident was associated with 0.6 more facilities providing methadone per 100 000 population. Similarly, each 1% decrease in probability of interaction of a Hispanic/Latino resident with a white resident was associated with 0.3 more facilities providing methadone per 100 000 population. Each 1% decrease in the probability of interaction of a white resident with an African American resident was associated with 8.17 more facilities providing buprenorphine per 100 000 population. Similarly, each 1% decrease in the probability of interaction of a white resident with a Hispanic/Latino resident was associated with 1.61 more facilities providing buprenorphine per 100 000 population.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that the racial/ethnic composition of a community was associated with which medications residents would likely be able to access when seeking treatment for opioid use disorder. Reforms to existing regulations governing the provisions of these medications are needed to ensure that both medications are equally accessible to all.

Potential Impact of Targeted HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Uptake Among Male Sex Workers

Little is known about the potential population-level impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among cisgender male sex workers (MSWs), a high-risk subset of cisgender men who have sex with men (MSM). Using an agent-based model, we simulated HIV transmission among cisgender MSM in Rhode Island to determine the impacts of PrEP implementation where cisgender MSWs were equally ("standard expansion") or five times as likely ("focused expansion") to initiate PrEP compared to other cisgender MSM. Without PrEP, the model predicted 920 new HIV infections over a decade, or an average incidence of 0.39 per 100 person-years. In a focused expansion scenario where 15% of at-risk cisgender MSM used PrEP, the total number of new HIV infections was reduced by 58.1% at a cost of $57,180 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Focused expansion of PrEP use among cisgender MSWs may be an efficient and cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence in the broader population of cisgender MSM.

Correlates of death during outpatient treatment for opioid use disorder: A national study

BACKGROUND

As the burden of opioid use disorder (OUD) increases in the United States, manifold federal and state initiatives have sought to increase access to treatment for OUD, which includes behavioral and pharmaceutical treatment modalities. Although the evidence base for outpatient treatment for OUD-including medications for opioid use disorder-is substantial, few studies have examined the risk factors for fatality during treatment for OUD.

METHODS

Treatment Episode Data Set-Discharges (TEDS-D) data were used to evaluate correlates of death during outpatient treatment for OUD in 2016. To determine the correlates of mortality during an outpatient treatment for OUD, we constructed a pooled logistic regression model, stratified by use of medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD), to control for the duration of time in treatment and to identify the independent characteristics that may lead to differences in the odds of mortality during treatment.

FINDINGS

1861 (0.8%) of 235,745 outpatient treatment episodes for OUD included in our analysis resulted in fatality. Many factors correlated with death during treatment were similar for individuals who did and did not receive MOUD. However, non-White race was only significantly associated with decreases in fatality in non-MOUD treatment episodes. Male sex and reported intravenous drug use at admission were associated with fatality only for treatment episodes that did not involve MOUD.

CONCLUSIONS

In this national study of outpatient treatment episodes for OUD, we found differences in age, sex, region, drug use history, treatment setting, and treatment history significantly affected the risk of death during treatment. As more people become engaged with treatment, facilities should work toward delivering optimal treatment for all patients regardless of personal characteristics.

Association of Alcohol Screening Scores With Adverse Mental Health Conditions and Substance Use Among US Adults

IMPORTANCE

Alcohol screening may be associated with health outcomes that cluster with alcohol use (ie, alcohol-clustering conditions), including depression, anxiety, and use of tobacco, marijuana, and illicit drugs.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the extent to which alcohol screening provides additional information regarding alcohol-clustering conditions and to compare 2 alcohol use screening tools commonly used for this purpose.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This longitudinal cohort study used data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study. Data were collected at 8 Veterans Health Administration facilities from 2003 through 2012. A total of 7510 participants were enrolled, completed a baseline survey, and were followed up. Veterans with HIV were matched with controls without HIV by age, race, sex, and site of care. Data were analyzed from January 2019 to December 2019.

EXPOSURES

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) were used to assess alcohol use, with 4 risk groups delineated for each test: score 0 to 7 (reference), score 8 to 15, score 16 to 19, and score 20 to 40 (maximum score) for the full AUDIT and score 0 to 3 (reference), score 4 to 5, score 6 to 7, and score 8 to 12 (maximum score) for the AUDIT-C.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Alcohol-clustering conditions, including self-reported symptoms of depression and anxiety and use of tobacco, marijuana, cocaine, other stimulants, opioids, and injection drugs.

RESULTS

A total of 6431 US patients (6104 [95%] men; median age during survey years 2003-2004, 50 years [range, 28-86 years; interquartile range, 44-55 years]) receiving care in the Veterans Health Administration completed 1 or more follow-up surveys when the AUDIT was administered and were included in the present analyses. Of the male participants, 4271 (66%) were African American, 1498 (24%) were white, and 590 (9%) were Hispanic. The AUDIT and AUDIT-C scores were associated with each alcohol-clustering condition. In particular, an AUDIT score of 20 or higher (vs <8, the reference) was associated with symptoms of depression (odds ratio [OR], 8.37; 95% CI, 6.20-11.29) and anxiety (OR, 8.98; 95% CI, 6.39-12.60) and with self-reported use of tobacco (OR, 14.64; 95% CI, 8.94-23.98), marijuana (OR, 12.41; 95% CI, 8.61-17.90), crack or cocaine (OR, 39.47; 95% CI, 27.38-56.90), other stimulants (OR, 21.31; 95% CI, 12.73-35.67), and injection drugs (OR, 8.67; 95% CI, 5.32-14.13). An AUDIT score of 20 or higher yielded likelihood ratio (sensitivity / 1 - specificity) values greater than 3.5 for depression, anxiety, crack or cocaine use, and other stimulant use. Associations between AUDIT-C scores and alcohol-clustering conditions were more modest.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Alcohol screening can inform decisions about further screening and diagnostic assessment for alcohol-clustering conditions, particularly for depression, anxiety, crack or cocaine use, and other stimulant use. Future studies using clinical diagnoses rather than screening tools to assess alcohol-clustering conditions may be warranted.

Estimating the impact of wide scale uptake of screening and medications for opioid use disorder in US prisons and jails

BACKGROUND

Medications for opioid use disorder (OUD) are the most effective treatment for OUD, but uptake of these life-saving medications has been extremely limited in US prisons and jail settings, and limited data are available to guide policy decisions. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of screening and treatment with medications for OUD in US prisons and jails on post-release opioid-related mortality.

METHODS

We used data from the National Center for Vital Statistics, the Bureau of Justice Statistics, and relevant literature to construct Monte Carlo simulations of a counterfactual scenario in which wide scale uptake of screening and treatment with medications for OUD occurred in US prisons and jails in 2016.

RESULTS

Our model predicted that 1840 (95% Simulation Interval [SI]: -2757 - 4959) lives would have been saved nationally if all persons who were clinically indicated had received medications for OUD while incarcerated. The model also predicted that approximately 4400 (95% SI: 2675 - 5557) lives would have been saved nationally if all persons who were clinically indicated had received medications for OUD while incarcerated and were retained in treatment post-release. These estimates correspond to 668 (95% SI: -1008 - 1812) and 1609 (95% SI: 972 - 2037) lives saved per 10,000 persons incarcerated, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Prison and jail-based programs that comprehensively screen and provide treatment with medications for OUD have the potential to produce substantial reductions in opioid-related overdose deaths in a high-risk population; however, retention on treatment post-release is a key driver of population level impact.

Comparative effectiveness of pharmacist care delivery models for hepatitis C clinics

PURPOSE

The optimal health care delivery models for providing services to patients with infections caused by hepatitis C virus (HCV) remain unknown. Pharmacist involvement may be a key component of optimal HCV care delivery. We examined the comparative effectiveness of a pharmacist-managed HCV clinic versus a pharmacist-assisted HCV clinic.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used electronic health record data on patients ≥18 years old initiating HCV treatment at a pharmacist-managed clinic or a pharmacist-assisted clinic within a single health-system between January 2015 and June 2017. Outcomes included treatment completion, sustained virologic response 12 weeks following treatment completion (SVR-12), and dispensation of direct-acting antiviral agents at the institution-based specialty pharmacy. Inverse probability of treatment-weighted (IPTW) logistic regression models were used to compare outcomes between the 2 clinic models.

RESULTS

A total of 127 patients initiated HCV treatment therapy: 64 patients from the pharmacist-managed clinic and 63 patients from the pharmacist-assisted clinic. The cohort had a mean age of 55 years, was 51% male, and 68% white. In IPTW analyses, there was no difference in treatment completion (odds ratio [OR], 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1-13.8; p = 0.93), achievement of sustained virologic response at 12 months (SVR-12) (OR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.2-4.5; p = 0.62), or use of institution-based specialty pharmacy (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2-1.7; p = 0.33) between pharmacist-managed and pharmacist-assisted clinics.

CONCLUSION

There were no significant differences in outcomes between patients receiving care at the pharmacist-managed HCV clinic and the pharmacist-assisted clinic. Given the frequency of SVR-12 achieved in both groups, both pharmacist-managed and pharmacist-assisted clinic models may be reasonable alternatives for providing outpatient HCV care.

Association of Medicaid Expansion With Opioid Overdose Mortality in the United States

IMPORTANCE

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) permits states to expand Medicaid coverage for most low-income adults to 138% of the federal poverty level and requires the provision of mental health and substance use disorder services on parity with other medical and surgical services. Uptake of substance use disorder services with medications for opioid use disorder has increased more in Medicaid expansion states than in nonexpansion states, but whether ACA-related Medicaid expansion is associated with county-level opioid overdose mortality has not been examined.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether Medicaid expansion is associated with county × year counts of opioid overdose deaths overall and by class of opioid.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This serial cross-sectional study used data from 3109 counties within 49 states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2017 (N = 3109 counties × 17 years = 52 853 county-years). Overdose deaths were modeled using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson models. Analyses were performed from April 1, 2018, to July 31, 2019.

EXPOSURES

The primary exposure was state adoption of Medicaid expansion under the ACA, measured as the proportion of each calendar year during which a given state had Medicaid expansion in effect. By the end of study observation in 2017, a total of 32 states and the District of Columbia had expanded Medicaid eligibility.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The outcomes of interest were annual county-level mortality from overdoses involving any opioid, natural and semisynthetic opioids, methadone, heroin, and synthetic opioids other than methadone, derived from the National Vital Statistics System multiple-cause-of-death files. A secondary analysis examined fatal overdoses involving all drugs.

RESULTS

There were 383 091 opioid overdose fatalities across observed US counties during the study period, with a mean (SD) of 7.25 (27.45) deaths per county (range, 0-1145 deaths per county). Adoption of Medicaid expansion was associated with a 6% lower rate of total opioid overdose deaths compared with the rate in nonexpansion states (relative rate [RR], 0.94; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.91-0.98). Counties in expansion states had an 11% lower rate of death involving heroin (RR, 0.89; 95% CrI, 0.84-0.94) and a 10% lower rate of death involving synthetic opioids other than methadone (RR, 0.90; 95% CrI, 0.84-0.96) compared with counties in nonexpansion states. An 11% increase was observed in methadone-related overdose mortality in expansion states (RR, 1.11; 95% CrI, 1.04-1.19). An association between Medicaid expansion and deaths involving natural and semisynthetic opioids was not well supported (RR, 1.03; 95% CrI, 0.98-1.08).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Medicaid expansion was associated with reductions in total opioid overdose deaths, particularly deaths involving heroin and synthetic opioids other than methadone, but increases in methadone-related mortality. As states invest more resources in addressing the opioid overdose epidemic, attention should be paid to the role that Medicaid expansion may play in reducing opioid overdose mortality, in part through greater access to medications for opioid use disorder.

Age- and Sex-Specific Increases in Stimulant Prescribing Rates-California, 2008-2017

Objective: To describe trends in prevalent and incident stimulant prescribing between 2008 and 2017 in California. Method: Statewide trends were estimated by age and sex category for prevalent (any) and incident (no prescriptions in the preceding 2 years) stimulant prescribing while adjusting for area-level covariates. Results: Prevalent prescribing rates increased by 126%, while incident prescribing increased 23%. Patients aged 25 to 44 years experienced over 200% increases in prevalent prescribing and 34% to 55% increases in incident prescribing. Among patients older than 25, women had consistently higher prescribing rates than men. ZIP code tabulation areas with the largest minority populations had the lowest baseline prescribing rates but experienced the greatest annual prescription rate increases. Conclusion: Adult stimulant prescribing increased substantially for early working aged adults. Prescription rates were greater for women than men.

Development and Calibration of a Dynamic HIV Transmission Model for 6 US Cities

Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.

Patterns and Correlates of Prescription Opioid Receipt Among US Veterans: A National, 18-Year Observational Cohort Study

A better understanding of predisposition to transition to high-dose, long-term opioid therapy after initial opioid receipt could facilitate efforts to prevent opioid use disorder (OUD). We extracted data on 69,268 patients in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study who received any opioid prescription between 1998 and 2015. Using latent growth mixture modelling, we identified four distinguishable dose trajectories: low (53%), moderate (29%), escalating (13%), and rapidly escalating (5%). Compared to low dose trajectory, those in the rapidly escalating dose trajectory were proportionately more European-American (59% rapidly escalating vs. 38% low); had a higher prevalence of HIV (31% vs. 29%) and hepatitis C (18% vs. 12%); and during follow-up, had a higher incidence of OUD diagnoses (13% vs. 3%); were hospitalised more often [18.1/100 person-years (PYs) vs. 12.5/100 PY]; and had higher all-cause mortality (4.7/100 PY vs. 1.8/100 PY, all p < 0.0001). These measures can potentially be used in future prevention research, including genetic discovery.

The benefits and implementation challenges of the first state-wide comprehensive medication for addictions program in a unified jail and prison setting

The prevalence of opioid use disorders among people who are incarcerated is high. People who are released from incarceration are at increased risk for overdose. The current study details the first year of implementation of a state-wide medications for addiction treatment (MAT) program in a unified jail and prison setting at the Rhode Island Department of Corrections in Cranston, Rhode Island. We conducted 40 semi-structured, qualitative interviews with people who were incarcerated and concurrently enrolled in the MAT program. Analysis employed a general, inductive approach in NVivo 12. We found that a majority of participants discussed program benefits such as reduced withdrawal symptoms, decreased prevalence of illicit drug use in the facility, improved general environment at the RIDOC, and increased post-release intentions to continue MAT. Suggested areas of improvement include reducing delays to first dose, increasing access to other recovery services in combination with MAT, improving staff training on stigma, and earlier access to medical discharge planning information prior to release. Our findings suggest that correctional MAT programs are acceptable to targeted populations and are a feasible intervention that may be transferable to other states.

Prescription drug monitoring programs operational characteristics and fatal heroin poisoning

BACKGROUND

Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMP), by reducing access to prescribed opioids (POs), may contribute to a policy environment in which some people with opioid dependence are at increased risk for transitioning from POs to heroin/other illegal opioids. This study examines how PDMP adoption and changes in the characteristics of PDMPs over time contribute to changes in fatal heroin poisoning in counties within states from 2002 to 2016.

METHODS

Latent transition analysis to classify PDMPs into latent classes (Cooperative, Proactive, and Weak) for each state and year, across three intervals (1999-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2016). We examined the association between probability of PDMP latent class membership and the rate of county-level heroin poisoning death.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential county-level confounders and co-occurring policy changes, adoption of a PDMP was significantly associated with increased heroin poisoning rates (22% increase by third year post-adoption). Findings varied by PDMP type. From 2010-2016, states with Cooperative PDMPs (those more likely to share data with other states, to require more frequent reporting, and include more drug schedules) had 19% higher heroin poisoning rates than states with Weak PDMPs (adjusted rate ratio [ARR] = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.14, 1.25). States with Proactive PDMPs (those more likely to report outlying prescribing and dispensing and provide broader access to law enforcement) had 6% lower heroin poisoning rates than states with No/Weak PDMPs (ARR = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.90, 0.98).

CONCLUSION

There is a consistent, positive association between state PDMP adoption and heroin poisoning mortality. However, this varies by PDMP type, with Proactive PDMPs associated with a small reduction in heroin poisoning deaths. This raises questions about the potential for PDMPs to support efforts to decrease heroin overdose risk, particularly by using proactive alerts to identify patients in need of treatment for opioid use disorder. Future research on mechanisms explaining the reduction in heroin poisonings after enactment of Proactive PDMPs is merited.

Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Randomised clinical trial of an emergency department-based peer recovery support intervention to increase treatment uptake and reduce recurrent overdose among individuals at high risk for opioid overdose: study protocol for the navigator trial

INTRODUCTION

Effective approaches to increase engagement in treatment for opioid use disorder (OUD) and reduce the risk of recurrent overdose and death following emergency department (ED) presentation for opioid overdose remain unknown. As such, we aim to compare the effectiveness of behavioural interventions delivered in the ED by certified peer recovery support specialists relative to those delivered by licensed clinical social workers (LCSWs) in promoting OUD treatment uptake and reducing recurrent ED visits for opioid overdose.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Adult ED patients who are at high risk for opioid overdose (ie, are being treated for an opioid overdose or identified by the treating physician as having OUD) (n=650) will be recruited from two EDs in a single healthcare system in Providence, Rhode Island into a two-arm randomised trial with 18 months of follow-up postrandomisation. Eligible participants will be randomly assigned (1:1) in the ED to receive a behavioural intervention from a certified peer recovery support specialist or a behavioural intervention from an LCSW. The primary outcomes are engagement in formal OUD treatment within 30 days of the initial ED visit and recurrent ED visits for opioid overdose within 18 months of the initial ED visit, as measured through statewide administrative records.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol was approved by the Rhode Island Hospital institutional review board (Approval Number: 212418). Data will be presented at national and international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03684681.

Predictors of initiation of and retention on medications for alcohol use disorder among people living with and without HIV

INTRODUCTION

Infrequent use of and poor retention on evidence-based medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) represent a treatment gap, particularly among people living with HIV (PLWH). We examined predictors of MAUD initiation and retention across HIV status.

METHODS

From Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) data, we identified new alcohol use disorder (AUD) diagnoses from 1998 to 2015 among 163,339 individuals (50,826 PLWH and 112,573 uninfected, matched by age, sex, and facility). MAUD initiation was defined as a prescription fill for naltrexone, acamprosate or disulfiram within 30 days of a new diagnosis. Among those who initiated, retention was defined as filling medication for ≥80% of days over the following six months. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess patient- and facility-level predictors of AUD medication initiation across HIV status.

RESULTS

Among 10,603 PLWH and 24,424 uninfected individuals with at least one AUD episode, 359 (1.0%) initiated MAUD and 49 (0.14%) were retained. The prevalence of initiation was lower among PLWH than those without HIV (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51-0.85). Older age (for PLWH: AOR 0.78, 95% CI 0.61-0.99; for uninfected: AOR 0.70, 95% CI 0.61-0.80) and black race (for PLWH: AOR 0.63, 95% CI 0.0.49-0.1.00; for uninfected: AOR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48-0.83), were associated with decreased odds of initiation for both groups. The low frequency of retention precluded multivariable analyses for retention.

CONCLUSIONS

For PLWH and uninfected individuals, targeted implementation strategies to expand MAUD are needed, particularly for specific subpopulations (e.g. black PLWH).

Defining a recovery-oriented cascade of care for opioid use disorder: A community-driven, statewide cross-sectional assessment

BACKGROUND

In light of the accelerating and rapidly evolving overdose crisis in the United States (US), new strategies are needed to address the epidemic and to efficiently engage and retain individuals in care for opioid use disorder (OUD). Moreover, there is an increasing need for novel approaches to using health data to identify gaps in the cascade of care for persons with OUD.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Between June 2018 and May 2019, we engaged a diverse stakeholder group (including directors of statewide health and social service agencies) to develop a statewide, patient-centered cascade of care for OUD for Rhode Island, a small state in New England, a region highly impacted by the opioid crisis. Through an iterative process, we modified the cascade of care defined by Williams et al. for use in Rhode Island using key national survey data and statewide health claims datasets to create a cross-sectional summary of 5 stages in the cascade. Approximately 47,000 Rhode Islanders (5.2%) were estimated to be at risk for OUD (stage 0) in 2016. At the same time, 26,000 Rhode Islanders had a medical claim related to an OUD diagnosis, accounting for 55% of the population at risk (stage 1); 27% of the stage 0 population, 12,700 people, showed evidence of initiation of medication for OUD (MOUD, stage 2), and 18%, or 8,300 people, had evidence of retention on MOUD (stage 3). Imputation from a national survey estimated that 4,200 Rhode Islanders were in recovery from OUD as of 2016, representing 9% of the total population at risk. Limitations included use of self-report data to arrive at estimates of the number of individuals at risk for OUD and using a national estimate to identify the number of individuals in recovery due to a lack of available state data sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that cross-sectional summaries of the cascade of care for OUD can be used as a health policy tool to identify gaps in care, inform data-driven policy decisions, set benchmarks for quality, and improve health outcomes for persons with OUD. There exists a significant opportunity to increase engagement prior to the initiation of OUD treatment (i.e., identification of OUD symptoms via routine screening or acute presentation) and improve retention and remission from OUD symptoms through improved community-supported processes of recovery. To do this more precisely, states should work to systematically collect data to populate their own cascade of care as a health policy tool to enhance system-level interventions and maximize engagement in care.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Statewide Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Program for Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective tool for preventing HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM), but its cost-effectiveness has varied across settings. Using an agent-based model, we projected the cost-effectiveness of a statewide PrEP program for MSM in Rhode Island over the next decade. In the absence of PrEP, the model predicted an average of 830 new HIV infections over ten years. Scaling up the existing PrEP program to cover 15% of MSM with ten or more partners each year could reduce the number of new HIV infections by 33.1% at a cost of $184,234 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Expanded PrEP use among MSM at high risk for HIV infection has the potential to prevent a large number of new HIV infections but the high drug-related costs may limit the cost-effectiveness of this intervention.

Global patterns of opioid use and dependence: harms to populations, interventions, and future action

We summarise the evidence for medicinal uses of opioids, harms related to the extramedical use of, and dependence on, these drugs, and a wide range of interventions used to address these harms. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study estimated that in 2017, 40·5 million people were dependent on opioids (95% uncertainty interval 34·3-47·9 million) and 109 500 people (105 800-113 600) died from opioid overdose. Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) can be highly effective in reducing illicit opioid use and improving multiple health and social outcomes-eg, by reducing overall mortality and key causes of death, including overdose, suicide, HIV, hepatitis C virus, and other injuries. Mathematical modelling suggests that scaling up the use of OAT and retaining people in treatment, including in prison, could avert a median of 7·7% of deaths in Kentucky, 10·7% in Kiev, and 25·9% in Tehran over 20 years (compared with no OAT), with the greater effects in Tehran and Kiev being due to reductions in HIV mortality, given the higher prevalence of HIV among people who inject drugs in those settings. Other interventions have varied evidence for effectiveness and patient acceptability, and typically affect a narrower set of outcomes than OAT does. Other effective interventions focus on preventing harm related to opioids. Despite strong evidence for the effectiveness of a range of interventions to improve the health and wellbeing of people who are dependent on opioids, coverage is low, even in high-income countries. Treatment quality might be less than desirable, and considerable harm might be caused to individuals, society, and the economy by the criminalisation of extramedical opioid use and dependence. Alternative policy frameworks are recommended that adopt an approach based on human rights and public health, do not make drug use a criminal behaviour, and seek to reduce drug-related harm at the population level.

Examining neighborhood poverty-based disparities in HIV/STI prevalence: an analysis of Add Health data

PURPOSE

The purpose of the study was to estimate the effect of exposure to neighborhood poverty in adolescence on HIV/STI prevalence in early adulthood.

METHODS

Longitudinal data from three waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health were analyzed. The primary exposure was living in a high- versus medium/low-poverty neighborhood during wave I. The outcome was having a sexually transmitted infection (STI) or receiving a HIV/STI diagnosis in the past 12 months at wave III. Covariates included sociodemographic, behavioral, and mental health-related factors. Inverse probability weighted marginal structural models were used to estimate neighborhood poverty-based differences in HIV/STI prevalence.

RESULTS

The analytic sample comprised 8232 National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health participants. Of these, 16% and 84% resided in high- and medium/low-poverty neighborhoods, respectively. Eleven percent currently had an STI or HIV/STI diagnosis within the prior 12 months. Accounting for measured potential sources of confounding and selection bias, the HIV/STI prevalence difference (95% confidence limits) for those who grew up in high- versus medium/low-poverty neighborhoods was 0.015 (-0.015, 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Strong evidence for neighborhood poverty-based differences in HIV/STI prevalence was not observed. Researchers should continue to investigate the effect of neighborhood-level socioeconomic position measures and, if warranted, identify etiologically relevant exposure periods.

Structural Design and Data Requirements for Simulation Modelling in HIV/AIDS: A Narrative Review

Born out of a necessity for fiscal sustainability, simulation modeling is playing an increasingly prominent role in setting priorities for combination implementation strategies for HIV treatment and prevention globally. The design of a model and the data inputted into it are central factors in ensuring credible inferences. We executed a narrative review of a set of dynamic HIV transmission models to comprehensively synthesize and compare the structural design and the quality of evidence used to support each model. We included 19 models representing both generalized and concentrated epidemics, classified as compartmental, agent-based, individual-based microsimulation or hybrid in our review. We focused on four structural components (population construction; model entry, exit and HIV care engagement; HIV disease progression; and the force of HIV infection), and two analytical components (model calibration/validation; and health economic evaluation, including uncertainty analysis). While the models we reviewed focused on a variety of individual interventions and their combinations, their structural designs were relatively homogenous across three of the four focal components, with key structural elements influenced by model type and epidemiological context. In contrast, model entry, exit and HIV care engagement tended to differ most across models, with some health system interactions-particularly HIV testing-not modeled explicitly in many contexts. The quality of data used in the models and the transparency with which the data was presented differed substantially across model components. Representative and high-quality data on health service delivery were most commonly not accessed or were unavailable. The structure of an HIV model should ideally fit its epidemiological context and be able to capture all efficacious treatment and prevention services relevant to a robust combination implementation strategy. Developing standardized guidelines on evidence syntheses for health economic evaluation would improve transparency and help prioritize data collection to reduce decision uncertainty.

Prevalence and Correlates of Depressive Symptomology among Young Adults Who Use Prescription Opioids Non-medically

Non-medical prescription opioid (NMPO) use and depression frequently co-occur and are mutually reinforcing in adults, yet NMPO use and depression in younger populations has been under-studied. We examined the prevalence and correlates of depressive symptomology among NMPO-using young adults. The Rhode Island Young Adult Prescription Drug Study (RAPiDS) recruited young adults in Rhode Island who reported past 30-day NMPO use. We administered the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale (CES-D 10), and used modified Poisson regression to identify the independent correlates of depressive symptomology (CES-D 10 score ≥10). Over half (59.8%, n = 119) screened positive for depressive symptomology. In modified Poisson regression analysis, diagnostic history of depressive disorder and childhood verbal abuse were associated with depressive symptomology. Participants with depressive symptomology were more likely to report using prescription opioids non-medically to feel less depressed or anxious, to avoid withdrawal symptoms, and as a substitute when other drugs are not available. Among young adult NMPO users, depressive symptomology is prevalent and associated with distinct motivations for engaging in NMPO use and represents a potential subgroup for intervention. Improving guidelines with tools such as screening for depressive symptomology among young adult NMPO users may help prevent NMPO-related harms.