Public policy, local labor demand, and migration in Sweden, 1979-84

"A model of private local labor demand and interjurisdictional migration is presented and estimated using data from Swedish counties and municipalities for 1979-84. Our goal is to compare the effects on local labor markets of distinctive public-sector programs with those of traditional market variables. We find that local income taxes and tax-equalization grants have important effects on local labor markets; regional development policy measures and geographical-mobility subsidies do not. Thus, recent efforts scaling back some of these programs may not materially alter the regional economy's performance. Wages and other traditional market variables are also often found to influence significantly local labor markets."

Tests of forecast accuracy and bias for county population projections

"This article deals with the forecast accuracy and bias of population projections for 2,971 counties in the United States. It uses three different projection techniques and data from 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1980 to make two sets of 10-year projections and one set of 20-year projections. These projections are compared with census counts to determine forecast errors. The size, direction, and distribution of forecast errors are analyzed by size of place, rate of growth, and length of projection horizon. A number of consistent patterns are noted, and an extension of the empirical results to the production of confidence intervals for population projections is considered." A comment by Paul M. Beaumont and Andrew M. Isserman is included (pp. 1,004-9) together with a rejoinder by the author (pp. 1,009-12). This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1986 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 52, No. 3, Fall 1986, p. 456).

Local authority fiscal stance and the pattern of residential migration in the north west of England

The degree of fiscal mobility present in household migration flows between local authority areas in northwestern England is assessed. Following an introduction, the paper is divided into three sections. "The first reviews the methodologies of previous attempts to assess the extent of fiscally induced migration, noting the dominance of American studies, and outlines a choice-theoretic structure within which it is possible to model human migration patterns. Section III considers the problems inherent in modelling migration flows, and Section IV presents results for a Compound Poisson analysis of migration between local authority areas within the four counties of the North West region of England, as well as an assessment of the prevalence of fiscal mobility."

[Evolution of Quebec's mortality rates, by cause of death]

"The evolution of mortality in Quebec over the past three decades is reviewed. Life expectancies and potential years of life lost from birth to age 75 are calculated. Also, interprovincial comparisons of mortality are included. Quebec's mortality experience, in comparison to the other provinces, is poor. Causes of death that are of particular concern are suicide and lung cancer. Mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases, stomach cancer and kidney diseases have markedly declined, for males as well as females." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)