Clinical use of current polygenic risk scores may exacerbate health disparities

Genetic distance and ancestry proportion modify the association between maternal genetic risk score of type 2 diabetes and fetal growth

BACKGROUND

Maternal genetic risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been associated with fetal growth, but the influence of genetic ancestry is not yet fully understood. We aimed to investigate the influence of genetic distance (GD) and genetic ancestry proportion (GAP) on the association of maternal genetic risk score of T2D (GRST2D) with fetal weight and birthweight.

METHODS

Multi-ancestral pregnant women (n = 1,837) from the NICHD Fetal Growth Studies - Singletons cohort were included in the current analyses. Fetal weight (in grams, g) was estimated from ultrasound measurements of fetal biometry, and birthweight (g) was measured at delivery. GRST2D was calculated using T2D-associated variants identified in the latest trans-ancestral genome-wide association study and was categorized into quartiles. GD and GAP were estimated using genotype data of four reference populations. GD was categorized into closest, middle, and farthest tertiles, and GAP was categorized as highest, medium, and lowest. Linear regression analyses were performed to test the association of GRST2D with fetal weight and birthweight, adjusted for covariates, in each GD and GAP category.

RESULTS

Among women with the closest GD from African and Amerindigenous ancestries, the fourth and third GRST2D quartile was significantly associated with 5.18 to 7.48 g (weeks 17-20) and 6.83 to 25.44 g (weeks 19-27) larger fetal weight compared to the first quartile, respectively. Among women with middle GD from European ancestry, the fourth GRST2D quartile was significantly associated with 5.73 to 21.21 g (weeks 18-26) larger fetal weight. Furthermore, among women with middle GD from European and African ancestries, the fourth and second GRST2D quartiles were significantly associated with 117.04 g (95% CI = 23.88-210.20, p = 0.014) and 95.05 g (95% CI = 4.73-185.36, p = 0.039) larger birthweight compared to the first quartile, respectively. The absence of significant association among women with the closest GD from East Asian ancestry was complemented by a positive significant association among women with the highest East Asian GAP.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between maternal GRST2D and fetal growth began in early-second trimester and was influenced by GD and GAP. The results suggest the use of genetic GD and GAP could improve the generalizability of GRS.

Diversity and scale: Genetic architecture of 2068 traits in the VA Million Veteran Program

One of the justifiable criticisms of human genetic studies is the underrepresentation of participants from diverse populations. Lack of inclusion must be addressed at-scale to identify causal disease factors and understand the genetic causes of health disparities. We present genome-wide associations for 2068 traits from 635,969 participants in the Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program, a longitudinal study of diverse United States Veterans. Systematic analysis revealed 13,672 genomic risk loci; 1608 were only significant after including non-European populations. Fine-mapping identified causal variants at 6318 signals across 613 traits. One-third (n = 2069) were identified in participants from non-European populations. This reveals a broadly similar genetic architecture across populations, highlights genetic insights gained from underrepresented groups, and presents an extensive atlas of genetic associations.

Genetic Risk Stratification of Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in Japanese Individuals

PURPOSE

To assess the impact of genetic risk estimation for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in Japanese individuals.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

Genetic risk scores (GRSs) were constructed based on a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of POAG in Japanese people. A total of 3625 Japanese individuals, including 1191 patients and 2434 controls (Japanese Tohoku), were used for the model selection. We also evaluated the discriminative accuracy of constructed GRSs in a dataset comprising 1034 patients and 1147 controls (the Japan Glaucoma Society Omics Group [JGS-OG] and the Genomic Research Committee of the Japanese Ophthalmological Society [GRC-JOS]) and 1900 participants from a population-based study (Hisayama Study).

METHODS

We evaluated 2 types of GRSs: polygenic risk scores using the pruning and thresholding procedure and a GRS using variants associated with POAG in the GWAS of the International Glaucoma Genetics Consortium (IGGC). We selected the model with the highest areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). In the population-based study, we evaluated the correlations between GRS and ocular measurements.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Proportion of patients with POAG after stratification according to the GRS.

RESULTS

We found that a GRS using 98 variants, which showed genome-wide significance in the IGGC, showed the best discriminative accuracy (AUC, 0.65). In the Japanese Tohoku, the proportion of patients with POAG in the top 10% individuals was significantly higher than that in the lowest 10% (odds ratio [OR], 6.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.35-8.71). In the JGS-OG and GRC-JOS, we confirmed similar impact of POAG GRS (AUC, 0.64; OR [top vs. bottom decile], 5.81; 95% CI, 3.79-9.01). In the population-based study, POAG prevalence was significantly higher in the top 20% individuals of the GRS compared with the bottom 20% (9.2% vs. 5.0%). However, the discriminative accuracy was low (AUC, 0.56). The POAG GRS was correlated positively with intraocular pressure (r = 0.08: P = 4.0 × 10-4) and vertical cup-to-disc ratio (r = 0.11; P = 4.0 × 10-6).

CONCLUSIONS

The GRS showed moderate discriminative accuracy for POAG in the Japanese population. However, risk stratification in the general population showed relatively weak discriminative performance.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Polygenic prediction of major depressive disorder and related traits in African ancestries UK Biobank participants

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) over-represent European ancestries, neglecting all other ancestry groups and low-income nations. Consequently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) more accurately predict complex traits in Europeans than African Ancestries groups. Very few studies have looked at the transferability of European-derived PRS for behavioural and mental health phenotypes to Africans. We assessed the comparative accuracy of depression PRS trained on European and African Ancestries GWAS studies to predict major depressive disorder (MDD) and related traits in African ancestry participants from the UK Biobank. UK Biobank participants were selected based on Principal component analysis clustering with an African genetic similarity reference population, MDD was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). PRS were computed using PRSice2 software using either European or African Ancestries GWAS summary statistics. PRS trained on European ancestry samples (246,363 cases) predicted case control status in Africans of the UK Biobank with similar accuracies (R2 = 2%, β = 0.32, empirical p-value = 0.002) to PRS trained on far much smaller samples of African Ancestries participants from 23andMe, Inc. (5045 cases, R² = 1.8%, β = 0.28, empirical p-value = 0.008). This suggests that prediction of MDD status from Africans to Africans had greater efficiency relative to discovery sample size than prediction of MDD from Europeans to Africans. Prediction of MDD status in African UK Biobank participants using GWAS findings of likely causal risk factors from European ancestries was non-significant. GWAS of MDD in European ancestries are inefficient for improving polygenic prediction in African samples; urgent MDD studies in Africa are needed.

Schoolhouse risk: Can we mitigate the polygenic Pygmalion effect?

BACKGROUND

Although limited in predictive accuracy, polygenic scores (PGS) for educational outcomes are currently available to the public via direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies. Further, there is a growing movement to apply PGS in educational settings via 'precision education.' Prior scholarship highlights the potentially negative impacts of such applications, as disappointing results may give rise a "polygenic Pygmalion effect." In this paper two studies were conducted to identify factors that may mitigate or exacerbate negative impacts of PGS.

METHODS

Two studies were conducted. In each, 1188 students were randomized to one of four conditions: Low-percentile polygenic score for educational attainment (EA-PGS), Low EA-PGS + Mitigating information, Low EA-PGS + Exacerbating information, or Control. Regression analyses were used to examine differences between conditions.

RESULTS

In Study 1, participants randomized to Control reported significantly higher on the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES), Competence Scale (CS), Academic Efficacy Scale (AES) and Educational Potential Scale (EPS). CS was significantly higher in the Low EA-PGS + Mitigating information condition. CS and AES were significantly lower in the Low EA-PGS + Exacerbating information condition compared to the Low EA-PGS + Mitigating information condition. In Study 2, participants randomized to Control reported significantly higher CS and AES. Pairwise comparisons did not show significant differences in CS and AES. Follow-up pairwise comparisons using Tukey P-value correction did not find significant associations between non-control conditions.

CONCLUSION

These studies replicated the polygenic Pygmalion effect yet were insufficiently powered to detect significant effects of mitigating contextual information. Regardless of contextual information, disappointing EA-PGS results were significantly associated with lower assessments of self-esteem, competence, academic efficacy, and educational potential.

Genome-wide association study on meningioma risk in Japan: a multicenter prospective study

PURPOSE

Although meningiomas are the most common primary intracranial tumors, their genetic etiologies have not been fully elucidated. To date, only two genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have focused on European ancestries, despite ethnic differences in the incidence of meningiomas. The aim of this study was to conduct the first GWAS of Japanese patients with meningiomas to identify the SNPs associated with meningioma susceptibility.

METHODS

In this multicenter prospective case-control study, we studied 401 Japanese patients with meningioma admitted in five institutions in Japan, and 50,876 control participants of Japanese ancestry enrolled in Biobank Japan.

RESULTS

The quality control process yielded 536,319 variants and imputation resulted in 8,224,735 variants on the autosomes and 224,820 variants on the X chromosomes. This GWAS eventually revealed no genetic variants with genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10 - 8) and observed no significant association in the previously reported risk variants rs11012732 and rs2686876 due to low minor allele frequency in the Japanese population.

CONCLUSION

This is the first GWAS of meningiomas in East Asian populations and is expected to contribute to the development of GWAS research for meningiomas.

Utility of polygenic risk scores to aid in the diagnosis of rheumatic diseases

Rheumatic diseases (RDs) are characterized by autoimmunity and autoinflammation and are recognized as complex due to the interplay of multiple genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors in their pathogenesis. The rapid advancement of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has enabled the identification of numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with RD susceptibility. Based on these SNPs, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have emerged as promising tools for quantifying genetic risk in this disease group. This chapter reviews the current status of PRSs in assessing the risk of RDs and discusses their potential to improve the accuracy of the diagnosis of these complex diseases through their ability to discriminate among different RDs. PRSs demonstrate a high discriminatory capacity for various RDs and show potential clinical utility. As GWASs continue to evolve, PRSs are expected to enable more precise risk stratification by integrating genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors, thereby refining individual risk predictions and advancing disease management strategies.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Charting a landmark-driven path forward for population genetics and ancient DNA research in Africa

Population history-focused DNA and ancient DNA (aDNA) research in Africa has dramatically increased in the past decade, enabling increasingly fine-scale investigations into the continent's past. However, while international interest in human genomics research in Africa grows, major structural barriers limit the ability of African scholars to lead and engage in such research and impede local communities from partnering with researchers and benefitting from research outcomes. Because conversations about research on African people and their past are often held outside Africa and exclude African voices, an important step for African DNA and aDNA research is moving these conversations to the continent. In May 2023 we held the DNAirobi workshop in Nairobi, Kenya and here we synthesize what emerged most prominently in our discussions. We propose an ideal vision for population history-focused DNA and aDNA research in Africa in ten years' time and acknowledge that to realize this future, we need to chart a path connecting a series of "landmarks" that represent points of consensus in our discussions. These include effective communication across multiple audiences, reframed relationships and capacity building, and action toward structural changes that support science and beyond. We concluded there is no single path to creating an equitable and self-sustaining research ecosystem, but rather many possible routes linking these landmarks. Here we share our diverse perspectives as geneticists, anthropologists, archaeologists, museum curators, and educators to articulate challenges and opportunities for African DNA and aDNA research and share an initial map toward a more inclusive and equitable future.

Gene-environment interactions within a precision environmental health framework

Understanding the complex interplay of genetic and environmental factors in disease etiology and the role of gene-environment interactions (GEIs) across human development stages is important. We review the state of GEI research, including challenges in measuring environmental factors and advantages of GEI analysis in understanding disease mechanisms. We discuss the evolution of GEI studies from candidate gene-environment studies to genome-wide interaction studies (GWISs) and the role of multi-omics in mediating GEI effects. We review advancements in GEI analysis methods and the importance of large-scale datasets. We also address the translation of GEI findings into precision environmental health (PEH), showcasing real-world applications in healthcare and disease prevention. Additionally, we highlight societal considerations in GEI research, including environmental justice, the return of results to participants, and data privacy. Overall, we underscore the significance of GEI for disease prediction and prevention and advocate for integrating the exposome into PEH omics studies.

Assessing the Risk Stratification of Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores in a Brazilian Cohort

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer have a clear clinical utility in risk prediction. PRS transferability across populations and ancestry groups is hampered by population-specific factors, ultimately leading to differences in variant effects, such as linkage disequilibrium and differences in variant frequency (allele frequency differences). Thus, locally sourced population-based phenotypic and genomic data sets are essential to assess the validity of PRSs derived from signals detected across populations. Here, we assess the transferability of a breast cancer PRS composed of 313 risk variants (313-PRS) in a Brazilian trihybrid admixed ancestries (European, African, and Native American) whole-genome sequenced cohort, the Rare Genomes Project. We computed 313-PRS in the Rare Genomes Project (n = 853) using the UK Biobank (UKBB; n = 264,307) as reference. We show that although the Brazilian cohorts have a high European ancestry (EA) component, with allele frequency differences and to a lesser extent linkage disequilibrium patterns similar to those found in EA populations, the 313-PRS distribution is inflated when compared with that of the UKBB, leading to potential overestimation of PRS-based risk if EA is taken as a standard. Interestingly, we find that case controls lead to equivalent predictive power when compared with UKBB-EA samples with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.66 to 0.62 compared with 0.63 for UKBB.

Imputation Server PGS: an automated approach to calculate polygenic risk scores on imputation servers

Polygenic scores (PGS) enable the prediction of genetic predisposition for a wide range of traits and diseases by calculating the weighted sum of allele dosages for genetic variants associated with the trait or disease in question. Present approaches for calculating PGS from genotypes are often inefficient and labor-intensive, limiting transferability into clinical applications. Here, we present 'Imputation Server PGS', an extension of the Michigan Imputation Server designed to automate a standardized calculation of polygenic scores based on imputed genotypes. This extends the widely used Michigan Imputation Server with new functionality, bringing the simplicity and efficiency of modern imputation to the PGS field. The service currently supports over 4489 published polygenic scores from publicly available repositories and provides extensive quality control, including ancestry estimation to report population stratification. An interactive report empowers users to screen and compare thousands of scores in a fast and intuitive way. Imputation Server PGS provides a user-friendly web service, facilitating the application of polygenic scores to a wide range of genetic studies and is freely available at https://imputationserver.sph.umich.edu.

Principled distillation of UK Biobank phenotype data reveals underlying structure in human variation

Data within biobanks capture broad yet detailed indices of human variation, but biobank-wide insights can be difficult to extract due to complexity and scale. Here, using large-scale factor analysis, we distill hundreds of variables (diagnoses, assessments and survey items) into 35 latent constructs, using data from unrelated individuals with predominantly estimated European genetic ancestry in UK Biobank. These factors recapitulate known disease classifications, disentangle elements of socioeconomic status, highlight the relevance of psychiatric constructs to health and improve measurement of pro-health behaviours. We go on to demonstrate the power of this approach to clarify genetic signal, enhance discovery and identify associations between underlying phenotypic structure and health outcomes. In building a deeper understanding of ways in which constructs such as socioeconomic status, trauma, or physical activity are structured in the dataset, we emphasize the importance of considering the interwoven nature of the human phenome when evaluating public health patterns.

Admixture mapping of cognitive function in diverse Hispanic and Latino adults: Results from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

INTRODUCTION

We conducted admixture mapping and fine-mapping analyses to identify ancestry-of-origin loci influencing cognitive abilities.

METHODS

We estimated the association of local ancestry intervals across the genome with five neurocognitive measures in 7140 diverse Hispanic and Latino adults (mean age 55 years). We prioritized genetic variants in associated loci and tested them for replication in four independent cohorts.

RESULTS

We identified nine local ancestry-associated regions for the five neurocognitive measures. There was strong biological support for the observed associations to cognitive function at all loci and there was statistical evidence of independent replication at 4q12, 9p22.1, and 13q12.13.

DISCUSSION

Our study identified multiple novel loci harboring genes implicated in cognitive functioning and dementia, and uncovered ancestry-relevant genetic variants. It adds to our understanding of the genetic architecture of cognitive function in Hispanic and Latino adults and demonstrates the power of admixture mapping to discover unique haplotypes influencing cognitive function, complementing genome-wide association studies.

HIGHLIGHTS

We identified nine ancestry-of-origin chromosomal regions associated with five neurocognitive traits. In each associated region, we identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that explained, at least in part, the admixture signal and were tested for replication in independent samples of Black, non-Hispanic White, and Hispanic/Latino adults with the same or similar neurocognitive tests. Statistical evidence of independent replication of the prioritized SNPs was observed for three of the nine associations, at chr4q12, chr9p22.1, and chr13q12.13. At all loci, there was strong biological support for the observed associations to cognitive function and dementia, prioritizing genes such as KIT, implicated in autophagic clearance of neurotoxic proteins and on mast cell and microglial-mediated inflammation; SLC24A2, implicated in synaptic plasticity associated with learning and memory; and MTMR6, implicated in phosphoinositide lipids metabolism.

The Role of Genetics in Managing Peripheral Arterial Disease

INTRODUCTION

Genome wide association studies (GWAS) have allowed for a rapid increase in our understanding of the underlying genetics and biology of many diseases. By capitalizing on common genetic variation between individuals, GWAS can identify DNA variants associated with diseases of interest. A variety of statistical methods can be applied to GWAS results which allows for risk factor identification, stratification, and to identify potential treatments. Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a common vascular disease that has been shown to have a strong genetic component. This article provides a review of the modern literature and our current understanding of the role of genetics in PAD.

SUMMARY

The largest available GWAS on PAD has identified 19 genome wide significant loci, with factor V Leiden and genes responsible for circulating lipoproteins being implicated in the development of PAD. Mendelian randomization studies have identified risk factors and causal associations with smoking, diabetes, and obesity and many other traits; protein-based MR has also identified circulating lipid and clotting factor levels associated with the incidence of PAD. Polygenic risk scores may allow for improved prediction of disease incidence and allow for early identification of at-risk patients but more work needs to be done to validate this approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic epidemiology has allowed for an increased understanding of PAD in the past decade. Genome-wide association studies have led to improved detection of genetic contributions to PAD, and further genetic analyses have validated risk factors and may provide options for improved screening in at-risk populations. Ongoing biobank studies of CLTI patients and the increasing ancestral diversity in biobank enrollment will allow for even further exploration into the pathogenesis and progression of PAD.

Precision public health in the era of genomics and big data

Precision public health (PPH) considers the interplay between genetics, lifestyle and the environment to improve disease prevention, diagnosis and treatment on a population level-thereby delivering the right interventions to the right populations at the right time. In this Review, we explore the concept of PPH as the next generation of public health. We discuss the historical context of using individual-level data in public health interventions and examine recent advancements in how data from human and pathogen genomics and social, behavioral and environmental research, as well as artificial intelligence, have transformed public health. Real-world examples of PPH are discussed, emphasizing how these approaches are becoming a mainstay in public health, as well as outstanding challenges in their development, implementation and sustainability. Data sciences, ethical, legal and social implications research, capacity building, equity research and implementation science will have a crucial role in realizing the potential for 'precision' to enhance traditional public health approaches.

Trans-Ancestral Genetic Risk Factors for Treatment-Related Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Survivors of Childhood Cancer

PURPOSE

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a prevalent long-term complication of treatment in survivors of childhood cancer, with marked racial/ethnic differences in burden. In this study, we investigated trans-ancestral genetic risks for treatment-related T2D.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Leveraging whole-genome sequencing data from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (N = 3,676, 304 clinically ascertained cases), we conducted ancestry-specific genome-wide association studies among survivors of African and European genetic ancestry (AFR and EUR, respectively) followed by trans-ancestry meta-analysis. Trans-/within-ancestry replication including data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (N = 5,965) was required for prioritization. Three external general population T2D polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were assessed, including multiancestry PRSs. Treatment risk effect modification was evaluated for prioritized loci.

RESULTS

Four novel T2D risk loci showing trans-/within-ancestry replication evidence were identified, with three loci achieving genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Among these, common variants at 5p15.2 (LINC02112), 2p25.3 (MYT1L), and 19p12 (ZNF492) showed evidence of modifying alkylating agent-related T2D risk in both ancestral groups, but showed disproportionately greater risk in AFR survivors (AFR odds ratios [ORs], 3.95-17.81; EUR ORs, 2.37-3.32). In survivor-specific RNA-sequencing data (N = 207), the 19p12 locus variant was associated with greater ZNF492 expression dysregulation after exposures to alkylators. Elevated T2D risks across ancestry groups were only observed with increasing values for multiancestry T2D PRSs and were especially increased among survivors treated with alkylators (top v bottom quintiles: ORAFR, 20.18; P = .023; OREUR, 13.44; P = 1.3 × 10-9).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest therapy-related genetic risks contribute to the increased T2D burden among non-Hispanic Black childhood cancer survivors. Additional study of how therapy-related genetic susceptibility contributes to this disparity is needed.

A proposal for an inclusive working definition of genetic discrimination to promote a more coherent debate

Genetic discrimination is an evolving phenomenon that impacts fundamental human rights such as dignity, justice and equity. Although, in the past, various definitions to better conceptualize genetic discrimination have been proposed, these have been unable to capture several key facets of the phenomenon. In this Perspective, we explore definitions of genetic discrimination across disciplines, consider criticisms of such definitions and show how other forms of discrimination and stigmatization can compound genetic discrimination in a way that affects individuals, groups and systems. We propose a nuanced and inclusive definition of genetic discrimination, which reflects its multifaceted impact that should remain relevant in the face of an evolving social context and advancing science. We argue that our definition should be adopted as a guiding academic framework to facilitate scientific and policy discussions about genetic discrimination and support the development of laws and industry policies seeking to address the phenomenon.

From Atherosclerosis to Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection: Defining a Clinical and Genetic Risk Spectrum for Myocardial Infarction

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) has been increasingly recognized as a significant cause of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in young and middle-aged women and arises through mechanisms independent of atherosclerosis. SCAD has a multifactorial etiology that includes environmental, individual, and genetic factors distinct from those typically associated with coronary artery disease. Here, we summarize the current understanding of the genetic factors contributing to the development of SCAD and highlight those factors which differentiate SCAD from atherosclerotic coronary artery disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies have revealed several associated variants with varying effect sizes for SCAD, giving rise to a complex genetic architecture. Associated genes highlight an important role for arterial cells and their extracellular matrix in the pathogenesis of SCAD, as well as notable genetic overlap between SCAD and other systemic arteriopathies such as fibromuscular dysplasia and vascular connective tissue diseases. Further investigation of individual variants (including in the associated gene PHACTR1) along with polygenic score analysis have demonstrated an inverse genetic relationship between SCAD and atherosclerosis as distinct causes of AMI. SCAD represents an increasingly recognized cause of AMI with opposing clinical and genetic risk factors from that of AMI due to atherosclerosis, and it is often associated with complex underlying genetic conditions. Genetic study of SCAD on a larger scale and with more diverse cohorts will not only further our evolving understanding of a newly defined genetic spectrum for AMI, but it will also inform the clinical utility of integrating genetic testing in AMI prevention and management moving forward.

Calibrated prediction intervals for polygenic scores across diverse contexts

Polygenic scores (PGS) have emerged as the tool of choice for genomic prediction in a wide range of fields. We show that PGS performance varies broadly across contexts and biobanks. Contexts such as age, sex and income can impact PGS accuracy with similar magnitudes as genetic ancestry. Here we introduce an approach (CalPred) that models all contexts jointly to produce prediction intervals that vary across contexts to achieve calibration (include the trait with 90% probability), whereas existing methods are miscalibrated. In analyses of 72 traits across large and diverse biobanks (All of Us and UK Biobank), we find that prediction intervals required adjustment by up to 80% for quantitative traits. For disease traits, PGS-based predictions were miscalibrated across socioeconomic contexts such as annual household income levels, further highlighting the need of accounting for context information in PGS-based prediction across diverse populations.

Stratifying Lung Adenocarcinoma Risk with Multi-ancestry Polygenic Risk Scores in East Asian Never-Smokers

Background

Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) among never-smokers is a public health burden especially prevalent in East Asian (EAS) women. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which quanefy geneec suscepebility, are promising for straefying risk, yet have mainly been developed in European (EUR) populaeons. We developed and validated single-and mule-ancestry PRSs for LUAD in EAS never-smokers, using the largest available genome-wide associaeon study (GWAS) dataset.

Methods

We used GWAS summary staesecs from both EAS (8,002 cases; 20,782 controls) and EUR (2,058 cases; 5,575 controls) populaeons, as well as independent EAS individual level data. We evaluated several PRSs approaches: a single-ancestry PRS using 25 variants that reached genome-wide significance (PRS-25), a genome-wide Bayesian based approach (LDpred2), and a mule-ancestry approach that models geneec correlaeons across ancestries (CT-SLEB). PRS performance was evaluated based on the associaeon with LUAD and AUC values. We then esemated the lifeeme absolute risk of LUAD (age 30-80) and projected the AUC at different sample sizes using EAS-derived effect-size distribueon and heritability esemates.

Findings

The CT-SLEB PRS showed a strong associaeon with LUAD risk (odds raeo=1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.61, 1.82) with an AUC of 0.640 (95% CI: 0.629, 0.653). Individuals in the 95 th percenele of the PRS had an esemated 6.69% lifeeme absolute risk of LUAD. Comparison of LUAD risk between individuals in the highest and lowest 20% PRS quaneles revealed a 3.92-fold increase. Projeceon analyses indicated that achieving an AUC of 0.70, which approaches the maximized prediceon poteneal of the PRS given the esemated geneec variance, would require a future study encompassing 55,000 EAS LUAD cases with a 1:10 case-control raeo.

Interpretations

Our study underscores the poteneal of mule-ancestry PRS approaches to enhance LUAD risk straeficaeon in never-smokers, parecularly in EAS populaeons, and highlights the necessary scale of future research to uncover the geneec underpinnings of LUAD.

Testing for differences in polygenic scores in the presence of confounding

Polygenic scores have become an important tool in human genetics, enabling the prediction of individuals' phenotypes from their genotypes. Understanding how the pattern of differences in polygenic score predictions across individuals intersects with variation in ancestry can provide insights into the evolutionary forces acting on the trait in question, and is important for understanding health disparities. However, because most polygenic scores are computed using effect estimates from population samples, they are susceptible to confounding by both genetic and environmental effects that are correlated with ancestry. The extent to which this confounding drives patterns in the distribution of polygenic scores depends on patterns of population structure in both the original estimation panel and in the prediction/test panel. Here, we use theory from population and statistical genetics, together with simulations, to study the procedure of testing for an association between polygenic scores and axes of ancestry variation in the presence of confounding. We use a general model of genetic relatedness to describe how confounding in the estimation panel biases the distribution of polygenic scores in a way that depends on the degree of overlap in population structure between panels. We then show how this confounding can bias tests for associations between polygenic scores and important axes of ancestry variation in the test panel. Specifically, for any given test, there exists a single axis of population structure in the GWAS panel that needs to be controlled for in order to protect the test. Based on this result, we propose a new approach for directly estimating this axis of population structure in the GWAS panel. We then use simulations to compare the performance of this approach to the standard approach in which the principal components of the GWAS panel genotypes are used to control for stratification.

Disparities in ABO blood type determination across diverse ancestries: a systematic review and validation in the All of Us Research Program

OBJECTIVES

ABO blood types have widespread clinical use and robust associations with disease. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the portability and suitability of tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) used to determine ABO alleles and blood types across diverse populations in published literature.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Bibliographic databases were searched for studies using tSNPs to determine ABO alleles. We calculated linkage between tSNPs and functional variants across inferred continental ancestry groups from 1000 Genomes. We compared r2 across ancestry and assessed real-world consequences by comparing tSNP-derived blood types to serology in a diverse population from the All of Us Research Program.

RESULTS

Linkage between functional variants and O allele tSNPs was significantly lower in African (median r2 = 0.443) compared to East Asian (r2 = 0.946, P = 1.1 × 10-5) and European (r2 = 0.869, P = .023) populations. In All of Us, discordance between tSNP-derived blood types and serology was high across all SNPs in African ancestry individuals and linkage was strongly correlated with discordance across all ancestries (ρ = -0.90, P = 3.08 × 10-23).

DISCUSSION

Many studies determine ABO blood types using tSNPs. However, tSNPs with low linkage disequilibrium promote misinference of ABO blood types, particularly in diverse populations. We observe common use of inappropriate tSNPs to determine ABO blood type, particularly for O alleles and with some tSNPs mistyping up to 58% of individuals.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight the lack of transferability of tSNPs across ancestries and potential exacerbation of disparities in genomic research for underrepresented populations. This is especially relevant as more diverse cohorts are made publicly available.

Associations of combined genetic and lifestyle risks with hypertension and home hypertension

No study, to our knowledge, has constructed a polygenic risk score based on clinical blood pressure and investigated the association of genetic and lifestyle risks with home hypertension. We examined the associations of combined genetic and lifestyle risks with hypertension and home hypertension. In a cross-sectional study of 7027 Japanese individuals aged ≥20 years, we developed a lifestyle score based on body mass index, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and sodium-to-potassium ratio, categorized into ideal, intermediate, and poor lifestyles. A polygenic risk score was constructed with the target data (n = 1405) using publicly available genome-wide association study summary statistics from BioBank Japan. Using the test data (n = 5622), we evaluated polygenic risk score performance and examined the associations of combined genetic and lifestyle risks with hypertension and home hypertension. Hypertension and home hypertension were defined as blood pressure measured at a community-support center ≥140/90 mmHg or at home ≥135/85 mmHg, respectively, or self-reported treatment for hypertension. In the test data, 2294 and 2322 participants had hypertension and home hypertension, respectively. Both polygenic risk and lifestyle scores were independently associated with hypertension and home hypertension. Compared with those of participants with low genetic risk and an ideal lifestyle, the odds ratios for hypertension and home hypertension in the low genetic risk and poor lifestyle group were 1.94 (95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.80) and 2.15 (1.60-2.90), respectively. In summary, lifestyle is important to prevent hypertension; nevertheless, participants with high genetic risk should carefully monitor their blood pressure despite a healthy lifestyle.

Childhood maltreatment, genetic risk, and subsequent risk of arrhythmias: a prospective cohort study

Background: Emerging evidence has linked childhood maltreatment with cardiovascular disease risk; however, the association between childhood maltreatment and cardiac arrhythmias remains unclear. Moreover, any genetic predispositions to atrial fibrillation (AF), a common cardiac arrhythmia associated with an elevated risk of stroke, heart failure, and mortality, that modify such associations have been undocumented.Purpose: To examine the associations between childhood maltreatment and incident arrhythmias, and whether a genetic predisposition to arrhythmias modifies these associations.Methods: This prospective analysis included 151,741 participants from the UK Biobank (mean age 55.8 years, 43.4% male). Childhood maltreatment, including five types, was measured using the Childhood Trauma Screener (CTS). Incident arrhythmias (AF, ventricular arrhythmias [VA], and bradyarrhythmia [BA]) were documented through linked hospital admission and death registry. Weighted AF genetic risk score was calculated. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to test for associations between childhood maltreatment and incident arrhythmias.Results: During a median follow-up of 12.21 years (interquartile range, 11.49-12.90 years), 6,588 AF, 2,093 BA, and 742 VA events occurred. Compared with the absence of childhood maltreatment, having 3-5 types of childhood maltreatment was associated with an increased risk of incident AF (HR, 1.23; 95%CI 1.09-1.37), VA (HR, 1.39; 95%CI 1.03-1.89), and BA (HR, 1.32; 95%CI 1.09-1.61) after adjusting demographic, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors. The associations between cumulative type of childhood maltreatment and the risk of AF (Poverall < .001; Pnonlinear = .674) and BA (Poverall = .007; Pnonlinear = .377) demonstrated a linear pattern. There was a gradient association between childhood maltreatment and AF risks across the intermediate and high genetic risk groups (both Ptrend < .05) but not within the low genetic risk group (Ptrend = .378), irrespective of non-significant interaction effect (Pinteraction = .204).Conclusion: Childhood maltreatment was associated with higher risks of incident arrhythmias, especially AF and BA. Genetic risk of AF did not modify these associations.

Genetic Risk, Healthy Lifestyle Adherence, and Risk of Developing Diabetes in the Japanese Population

AIM

This study examined the relationship between genetic risk, healthy lifestyle, and risk of developing diabetes.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 11,014 diabetes-free individuals ≥ 20 years old from the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-based cohort study. Lifestyle scores, including the body mass index, smoking, physical activity, and gamma-glutamyl transferase (marker of alcohol consumption), were assigned, and participants were categorized into ideal, intermediate, and poor lifestyles. A polygenic risk score (PRS) was constructed based on the type 2 diabetes loci from the BioBank Japan study. A multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between genetic risk, healthy lifestyle, and diabetes incidence and to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULT

Of the 11,014 adults included (67.8% women; mean age [standard deviation], 59.1 [11.3] years old), 297 (2.7%) developed diabetes during a mean 4.3 (0.8) years of follow-up. Genetic and lifestyle score is independently associated with the development of diabetes. Compared with the low genetic risk and ideal lifestyle groups, the odds ratio was 3.31 for the low genetic risk and poor lifestyle group. When the PRS was integrated into a model including the lifestyle and family history, the AUROC significantly improved to 0.719 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.692-0.747) compared to a model including only the lifestyle and family history (0.703 [95% CI, 0.674-0.732]).

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that adherence to a healthy lifestyle is important for preventing diabetes, regardless of genetic risk. In addition, genetic risk might provide information beyond lifestyle and family history to stratify individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.

Assessing the lack of diversity in genetics research across neurodegenerative diseases: A systematic review of the GWAS Catalog and literature

The under-representation of non-European cohorts in neurodegenerative disease genome-wide association studies (GWAS) hampers precision medicine efforts. Despite the inherent genetic and phenotypic diversity in these diseases, GWAS research consistently exhibits a disproportionate emphasis on participants of European ancestry. This study reviews GWAS up to 2022, focusing on non-European or multi-ancestry neurodegeneration studies. We conducted a systematic review of GWAS results and publications up to 2022, focusing on non-European or multi-ancestry neurodegeneration studies. Rigorous article inclusion and quality assessment methods were employed. Of 123 neurodegenerative disease (NDD) GWAS reviewed, 82% predominantly featured European ancestry participants. A single European study identified over 90 risk loci, compared to a total of 50 novel loci in identified in all non-European or multi-ancestry studies. Notably, only six of the loci have been replicated. The significant under-representation of non-European ancestries in NDD GWAS hinders comprehensive genetic understanding. Prioritizing genomic diversity in future research is crucial for advancing NDD therapies and understanding. HIGHLIGHTS: Eighty-two percent of neurodegenerative genome-wide association studies (GWAS) focus on Europeans. Only 6 of 50 novel neurodegenerative disease (NDD) genetic loci have been replicated. Lack of diversity significantly hampers understanding of NDDs. Increasing diversity in NDD genetic research is urgently required. New initiatives are aiming to enhance diversity in NDD research.

Racial and ethnic socioenvironmental inequity and neuroimaging in psychiatry: a brief review of the past and recommendations for the future

Neuroimaging is a major tool that holds immense translational potential for understanding psychiatric disorder phenomenology and treatment. However, although epidemiological and social research highlights the many ways inequity and representativeness influences mental health, there is a lack of consideration of how such issues may impact neuroimaging features in psychiatric research. More specifically, the potential extent to which racialized inequities may affect underlying neurobiology and impact the generalizability of neural models of disorders is unclear. The present review synthesizes research focused on understanding the potential consequences of racial/ethnic inequities relevant to neuroimaging in psychiatry. We first discuss historical and contemporary drivers of inequities that persist today. We then discuss the neurobiological consequences of these inequities as revealed through current research, and note emergent research demonstrating the impact such inequities have on our ability to use neuroimaging to understand psychiatric disease. We end with a set of recommendations and practices to move the field towards more equitable approaches that will advance our abilities to develop truly generalizable neurobiological models of psychiatric disorders.

Contribution of circulating Mfge8 to human T2DM and cardiovascular disease

MFGE8 is a major exosome (EV) protein known to mediate inflammation and atherosclerosis in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in animal studies. The pathophysiological role of this protein in obesity, T2DM, and cardiovascular disease is less investigated in humans. Earlier we reported a rare Asian Indian population-specific missense variant (rs371227978; Arg148His) in the MFGE8 gene associated with increased circulating Mfge8 and T2DM. We have further investigated the role of Mfge8 with T2DM risk in additional Asian Indians (n = 4897) and Europeans and other multiethnic cohorts from UK Biobank (UKBB) (n = 455,808) and the US (n = 1150). We also evaluated the exposure of Mfge8-enriched human EVs in zebrafish (ZF) for their impact on cardiometabolic organ system. Most individual carriers of Arg148His variant not only had high circulating Mfge8 but also revealed a positive significant correlation with glucose (r = 0.42; p = 4.9 × 10-04), while the non-carriers showed a negative correlation of Mfge8 with glucose (r = -0.38; p = 0.001) in Asian Indians. The same variant was monomorphic in non-South Asian ethnicities. Even without the variant, serum Mfge8 correlated significantly with blood glucose in other non-South Asian ethnicities (r = 0.47; p = 2.2 × 10-13). Since Mfge8 is an EV marker, we tested the exposure of Mfge8-enriched human EVs to ZF larvae as an exploratory study. The ZF larvae showed rapid effects on insulin-sensitive organs, developing fatty liver disease, heart hypertrophy and exhibiting redundant growth with poor muscular architecture with and without the high-fat diet (HFD). In contrast, the control group fishes developed fatty liver disease and heart hypertrophy only after the HFD feeding. Backed with strong support from animal studies on the role of Mfge8 in obesity, insulin resistance, and atherosclerosis, the current research suggests that circulating Mfge8 may become a potential marker for predicting the risk of T2DM and cardiovascular disease in humans.

Artificial Intelligence in Cardiovascular Care-Part 2: Applications: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Recent artificial intelligence (AI) advancements in cardiovascular care offer potential enhancements in effective diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes. More than 600 U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved clinical AI algorithms now exist, with 10% focusing on cardiovascular applications, highlighting the growing opportunities for AI to augment care. This review discusses the latest advancements in the field of AI, with a particular focus on the utilization of multimodal inputs and the field of generative AI. Further discussions in this review involve an approach to understanding the larger context in which AI-augmented care may exist, and include a discussion of the need for rigorous evaluation, appropriate infrastructure for deployment, ethics and equity assessments, regulatory oversight, and viable business cases for deployment. Embracing this rapidly evolving technology while setting an appropriately high evaluation benchmark with careful and patient-centered implementation will be crucial for cardiology to leverage AI to enhance patient care and the provider experience.

The effect of heavy smoking on retirement risk: A mendelian randomisation analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The extent to which heavy smoking and retirement risk are causally related remains to be determined. To overcome the endogeneity of heavy smoking behaviour, we employed a novel approach by exploiting the genetic predisposition to heavy smoking, as measured with a polygenic risk score (PGS), in a Mendelian Randomisation approach.

METHODS

8164 participants (mean age 68.86 years) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing had complete data on smoking behaviour, employment and a heavy smoking PGS. Heavy smoking was indexed as smoking at least 20 cigarettes a day. A time-to-event Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis, using a complementary log-log (cloglog) link function, was employed to model the retirement risk.

RESULTS

Our results show that being a heavy smoker significantly increases the risk of retirement (β = 1.324, standard error = 0.622, p < 0.05). Results were robust to a battery of checks and a placebo analysis considering the never-smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our findings support a causal pathway from heavy smoking to earlier retirement.

Conditional frequency spectra as a tool for studying selection on complex traits in biobanks

Natural selection on complex traits is difficult to study in part due to the ascertainment inherent to genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The power to detect a trait-associated variant in GWAS is a function of frequency and effect size - but for traits under selection, the effect size of a variant determines the strength of selection against it, constraining its frequency. To account for GWAS ascertainment, we propose studying the joint distribution of allele frequencies across populations, conditional on the frequencies in the GWAS cohort. Before considering these conditional frequency spectra, we first characterized the impact of selection and non-equilibrium demography on allele frequency dynamics forwards and backwards in time. We then used these results to understand conditional frequency spectra under realistic human demography. Finally, we investigated empirical conditional frequency spectra for GWAS variants associated with 106 complex traits, finding compelling evidence for either stabilizing or purifying selection. Our results provide insight into polygenic score portability and other properties of variants ascertained with GWAS, highlighting the utility of conditional frequency spectra.

Genome-wide association studies of lifetime and frequency cannabis use in 131,895 individuals

Cannabis is one of the most widely used drugs globally. Decriminalization of cannabis is further increasing cannabis consumption. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of lifetime (N=131,895) and frequency (N=73,374) of cannabis use. Lifetime cannabis use GWAS identified two loci, one near CADM2 (rs11922956, p=2.40E-11) and another near GRM3 (rs12673181, p=6.90E-09). Frequency of use GWAS identified one locus near CADM2 (rs4856591, p=8.10E-09; r2 =0.76 with rs11922956). Both traits were heritable and genetically correlated with previous GWASs of lifetime use and cannabis use disorder (CUD), as well as other substance use and cognitive traits. Polygenic scores (PGSs) for lifetime and frequency of cannabis use associated cannabis use phenotypes in AllofUs participants. Phenome-wide association study of lifetime cannabis use PGS in a hospital cohort replicated associations with substance use and mood disorders, and uncovered associations with celiac and infectious diseases. This work demonstrates the value of GWASs of CUD transition risk factors.

Phenotypic and ancestry-related assortative mating in autism

BACKGROUND

Positive assortative mating (AM) in several neuropsychiatric traits, including autism, has been noted. However, it is unknown whether the pattern of AM is different in phenotypically defined autism subgroups [e.g., autism with and without intellectually disability (ID)]. It is also unclear what proportion of the phenotypic AM can be explained by the genetic similarity between parents of children with an autism diagnosis, and the consequences of AM on the genetic structure of the population.

METHODS

To address these questions, we analyzed two family-based autism collections: the Simons Foundation Powering Autism Research for Knowledge (SPARK) (1575 families) and the Simons Simplex Collection (SSC) (2283 families).

RESULTS

We found a similar degree of phenotypic and ancestry-related AM in parents of children with an autism diagnosis regardless of the presence of ID. We did not find evidence of AM for autism based on autism polygenic scores (PGS) (at a threshold of |r|> 0.1). The adjustment of ancestry-related AM or autism PGS accounted for only 0.3-4% of the fractional change in the estimate of the phenotypic AM. The ancestry-related AM introduced higher long-range linkage disequilibrium (LD) between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on different chromosomes that are highly ancestry-informative compared to SNPs that are less ancestry-informative (D2 on the order of 1 × 10-5).

LIMITATIONS

We only analyzed participants of European ancestry, limiting the generalizability of our results to individuals of non-European ancestry. SPARK and SSC were both multicenter studies. Therefore, there could be ancestry-related AM in SPARK and SSC due to geographic stratification. The study participants from each site were unknown, so we were unable to evaluate for geographic stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed similar patterns of AM in autism with and without ID, and demonstrated that the common genetic influences of autism are likely relevant to both autism groups. The adjustment of ancestry-related AM and autism PGS accounted for < 5% of the fractional change in the estimate of the phenotypic AM. Future studies are needed to evaluate if the small increase of long-range LD induced by ancestry-related AM has impact on the downstream analysis.

Developing an optimal stratification model for colorectal cancer screening and reducing racial disparities in multi-center population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Early detection of colorectal neoplasms can reduce the colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by timely intervention for high-risk individuals. However, effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized CRC early screening in East Asian (EAS) population. We aimed to develop, validate, and optimize a comprehensive risk prediction model across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence in EAS population.

METHODS

To develop precision risk-stratification and intervention strategies, we developed three trans-ancestry PRSs targeting colorectal neoplasms: (1) using 148 previously identified CRC risk loci (PRS148); (2) SNPs selection from large-scale meta-analysis data by clumping and thresholding (PRS183); (3) PRS-CSx, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction (PRSGenomewide). Then, the performance of each PRS was assessed and validated in two independent cross-sectional screening sets, including 4600 patients with advanced colorectal neoplasm, 4495 patients with non-advanced adenoma, and 21,199 normal individuals from the ZJCRC (Zhejiang colorectal cancer set; EAS) and PLCO (the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial; European, EUR) studies. The optimal PRS was further incorporated with lifestyle factors to stratify individual risk and ultimately tested in the PLCO and UK Biobank prospective cohorts, totaling 350,013 participants.

RESULTS

Three trans-ancestry PRSs achieved moderately improved predictive performance in EAS compared to EUR populations. Remarkably, the PRSs effectively facilitated a thorough risk assessment across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Among these models, PRS183 demonstrated the optimal discriminatory ability in both EAS and EUR validation datasets, particularly for individuals at risk of colorectal neoplasms. Using two large-scale and independent prospective cohorts, we further confirmed a significant dose-response effect of PRS183 on incident colorectal neoplasms. Incorporating PRS183 with lifestyle factors into a comprehensive strategy improves risk stratification and discriminatory accuracy compared to using PRS or lifestyle factors separately. This comprehensive risk-stratified model shows potential in addressing missed diagnoses in screening tests (best NPV = 0.93), while moderately reducing unnecessary screening (best PPV = 0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Our comprehensive risk-stratified model in population-based CRC screening trials represents a promising advancement in personalized risk assessment, facilitating tailored CRC screening in the EAS population. This approach enhances the transferability of PRSs across ancestries and thereby helps address health disparity.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Artificial Intelligence in Otology and Neurotology

Clinical applications of artificial intelligence (AI) have grown exponentially with increasing computational power and Big Data. Data rich fields such as Otology and Neurotology are still in the infancy of harnessing the power of AI but are increasingly involved in training and developing ways to incorporate AI into patient care. Current studies involving AI are focused on accessible datasets; health care wearables, tabular data from electronic medical records, electrophysiologic measurements, imaging, and "omics" provide huge amounts of data to utilize. Health care wearables, such as hearing aids and cochlear implants, are a ripe environment for AI implementation.

Advancing precision rheumatology: applications of machine learning for rheumatoid arthritis management

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease causing progressive joint damage. Early diagnosis and treatment is critical, but remains challenging due to RA complexity and heterogeneity. Machine learning (ML) techniques may enhance RA management by identifying patterns within multidimensional biomedical data to improve classification, diagnosis, and treatment predictions. In this review, we summarize the applications of ML for RA management. Emerging studies or applications have developed diagnostic and predictive models for RA that utilize a variety of data modalities, including electronic health records, imaging, and multi-omics data. High-performance supervised learning models have demonstrated an Area Under the Curve (AUC) exceeding 0.85, which is used for identifying RA patients and predicting treatment responses. Unsupervised learning has revealed potential RA subtypes. Ongoing research is integrating multimodal data with deep learning to further improve performance. However, key challenges remain regarding model overfitting, generalizability, validation in clinical settings, and interpretability. Small sample sizes and lack of diverse population testing risks overestimating model performance. Prospective studies evaluating real-world clinical utility are lacking. Enhancing model interpretability is critical for clinician acceptance. In summary, while ML shows promise for transforming RA management through earlier diagnosis and optimized treatment, larger scale multisite data, prospective clinical validation of interpretable models, and testing across diverse populations is still needed. As these gaps are addressed, ML may pave the way towards precision medicine in RA.

Characterizing Genetic Pathways Unique to Autism Spectrum Disorder at Multiple Levels of Biological Analysis

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by atypical patterns of social functioning and repetitive/restricted behaviors. ASD commonly co-occurs with ADHD and, despite their clinical distinctiveness, the two share considerable genetic overlap. Given their shared genetic liability, it is unclear which genetic pathways confer unique risk for ASD independent of ADHD. We applied Genomic Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to GWAS summary statistics for ASD and ADHD, decomposing the genetic signal for ASD into that which is unique to ASD (uASD) and that which is shared with ADHD. We computed genetic correlations between uASD and 75 external traits to estimate genetic overlap between uASD and other clinically relevant phenotypes. We went on to apply Stratified Genomic SEM to identify classes of genes enriched for uASD. Finally, we implemented Transcriptome-Wide SEM (T-SEM) to explore patterns of gene-expression associated with uASD. We observed positive genetic correlations between uASD and several external traits, most notably those relating to cognitive/educational outcomes and internalizing psychiatric traits. Stratified Genomic SEM showed that heritability for uASD was significantly enriched in genes involved in evolutionarily conserved processes, as well as for a histone mark in the germinal matrix. T-SEM revealed 83 unique genes with expression associated with uASD, many of which were novel. These findings delineate the unique biological underpinnings of ASD which exist independent of ADHD and demonstrate the utility of Genomic SEM and its extensions for disambiguating shared and unique risk pathways for genetically overlapping traits.

Managing differential performance of polygenic risk scores across groups: Real-world experience of the eMERGE Network

The differential performance of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) by group is one of the major ethical barriers to their clinical use. It is also one of the main practical challenges for any implementation effort. The social repercussions of how people are grouped in PRS research must be considered in communications with research participants, including return of results. Here, we outline the decisions faced and choices made by a large multi-site clinical implementation study returning PRSs to diverse participants in handling this issue of differential performance. Our approach to managing the complexities associated with the differential performance of PRSs serves as a case study that can help future implementers of PRSs to plot an anticipatory course in response to this issue.

Genome wide association study and genomic risk prediction of age related macular degeneration in Israel

The risk of developing age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is influenced by genetic background. In 2016, the International AMD Genomics Consortium (IAMDGC) identified 52 risk variants in 34 loci, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) from these variants was associated with AMD. The Israeli population has a unique genetic composition: Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ), Jewish non-Ashkenazi, and Arab sub-populations. We aimed to perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for AMD in Israel, and to evaluate PRSs for AMD. Our discovery set recruited 403 AMD patients and 256 controls at Hadassah Medical Center. We genotyped individuals via custom exome chip. We imputed non-typed variants using cosmopolitan and AJ reference panels. We recruited additional 155 cases and 69 controls for validation. To evaluate predictive power of PRSs for AMD, we used IAMDGC summary-statistics excluding our study and developed PRSs via clumping/thresholding or LDpred2. In our discovery set, 31/34 loci reported by IAMDGC were AMD-associated (P < 0.05). Of those, all effects were directionally consistent with IAMDGC and 11 loci had a P-value under Bonferroni-corrected threshold (0.05/34 = 0.0015). At a 5 × 10-5 threshold, we discovered four suggestive associations in FAM189A1, IGDCC4, C7orf50, and CNTNAP4. Only the FAM189A1 variant was AMD-associated in the replication cohort after Bonferroni-correction. A prediction model including LDpred2-based PRS + covariates had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.85) and performed better than covariates-only model (P = 5.1 × 10-9). Therefore, previously reported AMD-associated loci were nominally associated with AMD in Israel. A PRS developed based on a large international study is predictive in Israeli populations.

Predicting the direction of phenotypic difference

Predicting phenotypes from genomic data is a key goal in genetics, but for most complex phenotypes, predictions are hampered by incomplete genotype-to-phenotype mapping. Here, we describe a more attainable approach than quantitative predictions, which is aimed at qualitatively predicting phenotypic differences. Despite incomplete genotype-to-phenotype mapping, we show that it is relatively easy to determine which of two individuals has a greater phenotypic value. This question is central in many scenarios, e.g., comparing disease risk between individuals, the yield of crop strains, or the anatomy of extinct vs extant species. To evaluate prediction accuracy, i.e., the probability that the individual with the greater predicted phenotype indeed has a greater phenotypic value, we developed an estimator of the ratio between known and unknown effects on the phenotype. We evaluated prediction accuracy using human data from tens of thousands of individuals from either the same family or the same population, as well as data from different species. We found that, in many cases, even when only a small fraction of the loci affecting a phenotype is known, the individual with the greater phenotypic value can be identified with over 90% accuracy. Our approach also circumvents some of the limitations in transferring genetic association results across populations. Overall, we introduce an approach that enables accurate predictions of key information on phenotypes - the direction of phenotypic difference - and suggest that more phenotypic information can be extracted from genomic data than previously appreciated.

Optimizing clinico-genomic disease prediction across ancestries: a machine learning strategy with Pareto improvement

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of an individual's predisposition to diseases is vital for preventive medicine and early intervention. Various statistical and machine learning models have been developed for disease prediction using clinico-genomic data. However, the accuracy of clinico-genomic prediction of diseases may vary significantly across ancestry groups due to their unequal representation in clinical genomic datasets.

METHODS

We introduced a deep transfer learning approach to improve the performance of clinico-genomic prediction models for data-disadvantaged ancestry groups. We conducted machine learning experiments on multi-ancestral genomic datasets of lung cancer, prostate cancer, and Alzheimer's disease, as well as on synthetic datasets with built-in data inequality and distribution shifts across ancestry groups.

RESULTS

Deep transfer learning significantly improved disease prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations in our multi-ancestral machine learning experiments. In contrast, transfer learning based on linear frameworks did not achieve comparable improvements for these data-disadvantaged populations.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that deep transfer learning can enhance fairness in multi-ancestral machine learning by improving prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations without compromising prediction accuracy for other populations, thus providing a Pareto improvement towards equitable clinico-genomic prediction of diseases.

Generalized genetic liability to substance use disorders

Lifetime and temporal co-occurrence of substance use disorders (SUDs) is common and compared with individual SUDs is characterized by greater severity, additional psychiatric comorbidities, and worse outcomes. Here, we review evidence for the role of generalized genetic liability to various SUDs. Coaggregation of SUDs has familial contributions, with twin studies suggesting a strong contribution of additive genetic influences undergirding use disorders for a variety of substances (including alcohol, nicotine, cannabis, and others). GWAS have documented similarly large genetic correlations between alcohol, cannabis, and opioid use disorders. Extending these findings, recent studies have identified multiple genomic loci that contribute to common risk for these SUDs and problematic tobacco use, implicating dopaminergic regulatory and neuronal development mechanisms in the pathophysiology of generalized SUD genetic liability, with certain signals demonstrating cross-species and translational validity. Overlap with genetic signals for other externalizing behaviors, while substantial, does not explain the entirety of the generalized genetic signal for SUD. Polygenic scores (PGS) derived from the generalized genetic liability to SUDs outperform PGS for individual SUDs in prediction of serious mental health and medical comorbidities. Going forward, it will be important to further elucidate the etiology of generalized SUD genetic liability by incorporating additional SUDs, evaluating clinical presentation across the lifespan, and increasing the granularity of investigation (e.g., specific transdiagnostic criteria) to ultimately improve the nosology, prevention, and treatment of SUDs.

A manifesto for improving cancer detection: four key considerations when implementing innovations across the interface of primary and secondary care

Improving cancer outcomes through innovative cancer detection initiatives in primary care is an international policy priority. There are unique implementation challenges to the roll-out and scale-up of different innovations, requiring synchronisation between national policy levers and local implementation strategies. We draw on implementation science to highlight key considerations when seeking to sustainably embed cancer detection initiatives within health systems and clinical practice. Points of action include considering the implications of change on the current configuration of responsibility for detecting cancer; investing in understanding how to adapt systems to support innovations; developing strategies to address inequity when planning innovation implementation; and anticipating and making efforts to mitigate the unintended consequences of innovation. We draw on examples of contemporary cancer detection issues to illustrate how to apply these recommendations to practice.

Validity of European-centric cardiometabolic polygenic scores in multi-ancestry populations

Polygenic scores (PGSs) provide an individual level estimate of genetic risk for any given disease. Since most PGSs have been derived from genome wide association studies (GWASs) conducted in populations of White European ancestry, their validity in other ancestry groups remains unconfirmed. This is especially relevant for cardiometabolic diseases which are known to disproportionately affect people of non-European ancestry. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the performance of PGSs for glycaemic traits (glycated haemoglobin, and type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus), cardiometabolic risk factors (body mass index, hypertension, high- and low-density lipoproteins, and total cholesterol and triglycerides) and cardiovascular diseases (including stroke and coronary artery disease) in people of White European, South Asian, and African Caribbean ethnicity in the UK Biobank. Whilst PGSs incorporated some GWAS data from multi-ethnic populations, the vast majority originated from White Europeans. For most outcomes, PGSs derived mostly from European populations had an overall better performance in White Europeans compared to South Asians and African Caribbeans. Thus, multi-ancestry GWAS data are needed to derive ancestry stratified PGSs to tackle health inequalities.

Dual-systems models of the genetic architecture of impulsive personality traits: neurogenetic evidence of distinct but related factors

BACKGROUND

Dual-systems models, positing an interaction between two distinct and competing systems (i.e. top-down self-control, and bottom-up reward- or emotion-based drive), provide a parsimonious framework for investigating the interplay between cortical and subcortical brain regions relevant to impulsive personality traits (IPTs) and their associations with psychopathology. Despite recent developments in multivariate analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), molecular genetic investigations of these models have not been conducted.

METHODS

Using IPT GWAS, we conducted confirmatory genomic structural equation models (GenomicSEM) to empirically evaluate dual-systems models of the genetic architecture of IPTs. Genetic correlations between dual-systems factors and relevant cortical and subcortical neuroimaging phenotypes (regional/structural volume, cortical surface area, cortical thickness) were estimated and compared.

RESULTS

GenomicSEM dual-systems models underscored important sources of shared and unique genetic variance between top-down and bottom-up constructs. Specifically, a dual-systems genomic model consisting of sensation seeking and lack of self-control factors demonstrated distinct but related sources of genetic influences (rg = 0.60). Genetic correlation analyses provided evidence of differential associations between dual-systems factors and cortical neuroimaging phenotypes (e.g. lack of self-control negatively associated with cortical thickness, sensation seeking positively associated with cortical surface area). No significant associations were observed with subcortical phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual-systems models of the genetic architecture of IPTs tested were consistent with study hypotheses, but associations with relevant neuroimaging phenotypes were mixed (e.g. no associations with subcortical volumes). Findings demonstrate the utility of dual-systems models for studying IPT genetic influences, but also highlight potential limitations as a framework for interpreting IPTs as endophenotypes for psychopathology.