The Polygenic Score Catalog as an open database for reproducibility and systematic evaluation

The relationship between 11 different polygenic longevity scores, parental lifespan, and disease diagnosis in the UK Biobank

Large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) strongly suggest that most traits and diseases have a polygenic component. This observation has motivated the development of disease-specific "polygenic scores (PGS)" that are weighted sums of the effects of disease-associated variants identified from GWAS that correlate with an individual's likelihood of expressing a specific phenotype. Although most GWAS have been pursued on disease traits, leading to the creation of refined "Polygenic Risk Scores" (PRS) that quantify risk to diseases, many GWAS have also been pursued on extreme human longevity, general fitness, health span, and other health-positive traits. These GWAS have discovered many genetic variants seemingly protective from disease and are often different from disease-associated variants (i.e., they are not just alternative alleles at disease-associated loci) and suggest that many health-positive traits also have a polygenic basis. This observation has led to an interest in "polygenic longevity scores (PLS)" that quantify the "risk" or genetic predisposition of an individual towards health. We derived 11 different PLS from 4 different available GWAS on lifespan and then investigated the properties of these PLS using data from the UK Biobank (UKB). Tests of association between the PLS and population structure, parental lifespan, and several cancerous and non-cancerous diseases, including death from COVID-19, were performed. Based on the results of our analyses, we argue that PLS are made up of variants not only robustly associated with parental lifespan, but that also contribute to the genetic architecture of disease susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality.

Imputation Server PGS: an automated approach to calculate polygenic risk scores on imputation servers

Polygenic scores (PGS) enable the prediction of genetic predisposition for a wide range of traits and diseases by calculating the weighted sum of allele dosages for genetic variants associated with the trait or disease in question. Present approaches for calculating PGS from genotypes are often inefficient and labor-intensive, limiting transferability into clinical applications. Here, we present 'Imputation Server PGS', an extension of the Michigan Imputation Server designed to automate a standardized calculation of polygenic scores based on imputed genotypes. This extends the widely used Michigan Imputation Server with new functionality, bringing the simplicity and efficiency of modern imputation to the PGS field. The service currently supports over 4489 published polygenic scores from publicly available repositories and provides extensive quality control, including ancestry estimation to report population stratification. An interactive report empowers users to screen and compare thousands of scores in a fast and intuitive way. Imputation Server PGS provides a user-friendly web service, facilitating the application of polygenic scores to a wide range of genetic studies and is freely available at https://imputationserver.sph.umich.edu.

DORA: an interactive map for the visualization and analysis of ancient human DNA and associated data

The ability to sequence ancient genomes has revolutionized the way we study evolutionary history by providing access to the most important aspect of evolution-time. Until recently, studying human demography, ecology, biology, and history using population genomic inference relied on contemporary genomic datasets. Over the past decade, the availability of human ancient DNA (aDNA) has increased rapidly, almost doubling every year, opening the way for spatiotemporal studies of ancient human populations. However, the multidimensionality of aDNA, with genotypes having temporal, spatial and genomic coordinates, and integrating multiple sources of data, poses a challenge for developing meta-analyses pipelines. To address this challenge, we developed a publicly-available interactive tool, DORA, which integrates multiple data types, genomic and non-genomic, in a unified interface. This web-based tool enables browsing sample metadata alongside additional layers of information, such as population structure, climatic data, and unpublished samples. Users can perform analyses on genotypes of these samples, or export sample subsets for external analyses. DORA integrates analyses and visualizations in a single intuitive interface, resolving the technical issues of combining datasets from different sources and formats, and allowing researchers to focus on the scientific questions that can be addressed through analysis of aDNA datasets.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Hierarchical joint analysis of marginal summary statistics-Part II: High-dimensional instrumental analysis of omics data

Instrumental variable (IV) analysis has been widely applied in epidemiology to infer causal relationships using observational data. Genetic variants can also be viewed as valid IVs in Mendelian randomization and transcriptome-wide association studies. However, most multivariate IV approaches cannot scale to high-throughput experimental data. Here, we leverage the flexibility of our previous work, a hierarchical model that jointly analyzes marginal summary statistics (hJAM), to a scalable framework (SHA-JAM) that can be applied to a large number of intermediates and a large number of correlated genetic variants-situations often encountered in modern experiments leveraging omic technologies. SHA-JAM aims to estimate the conditional effect for high-dimensional risk factors on an outcome by incorporating estimates from association analyses of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-intermediate or SNP-gene expression as prior information in a hierarchical model. Results from extensive simulation studies demonstrate that SHA-JAM yields a higher area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), a lower mean-squared error of the estimates, and a much faster computation speed, compared to an existing approach for similar analyses. In two applied examples for prostate cancer, we investigated metabolite and transcriptome associations, respectively, using summary statistics from a GWAS for prostate cancer with more than 140,000 men and high dimensional publicly available summary data for metabolites and transcriptomes.

A polygenic risk score for the QT interval is an independent predictor of drug-induced QT prolongation

Drug-induced QT prolongation (diLQTS), and subsequent risk of torsade de pointes, is a major concern with use of many medications, including for non-cardiac conditions. The possibility that genetic risk, in the form of polygenic risk scores (PGS), could be integrated into prediction of risk of diLQTS has great potential, although it is unknown how genetic risk is related to clinical risk factors as might be applied in clinical decision-making. In this study, we examined the PGS for QT interval in 2500 subjects exposed to a known QT-prolonging drug on prolongation of the QT interval over 500ms on subsequent ECG using electronic health record data. We found that the normalized QT PGS was higher in cases than controls (0.212±0.954 vs. -0.0270±1.003, P = 0.0002), with an unadjusted odds ratio of 1.34 (95%CI 1.17-1.53, P<0.001) for association with diLQTS. When included with age and clinical predictors of QT prolongation, we found that the PGS for QT interval provided independent risk prediction for diLQTS, in which the interaction for high-risk diagnosis or with certain high-risk medications (amiodarone, sotalol, and dofetilide) was not significant, indicating that genetic risk did not modify the effect of other risk factors on risk of diLQTS. We found that a high-risk cutoff (QT PGS ≥ 2 standard deviations above mean), but not a low-risk cutoff, was associated with risk of diLQTS after adjustment for clinical factors, and provided one method of integration based on the decision-tree framework. In conclusion, we found that PGS for QT interval is an independent predictor of diLQTS, but that in contrast to existing theories about repolarization reserve as a mechanism of increasing risk, the effect is independent of other clinical risk factors. More work is needed for external validation in clinical decision-making, as well as defining the mechanism through which genes that increase QT interval are associated with risk of diLQTS.

Calibrated prediction intervals for polygenic scores across diverse contexts

Polygenic scores (PGS) have emerged as the tool of choice for genomic prediction in a wide range of fields. We show that PGS performance varies broadly across contexts and biobanks. Contexts such as age, sex and income can impact PGS accuracy with similar magnitudes as genetic ancestry. Here we introduce an approach (CalPred) that models all contexts jointly to produce prediction intervals that vary across contexts to achieve calibration (include the trait with 90% probability), whereas existing methods are miscalibrated. In analyses of 72 traits across large and diverse biobanks (All of Us and UK Biobank), we find that prediction intervals required adjustment by up to 80% for quantitative traits. For disease traits, PGS-based predictions were miscalibrated across socioeconomic contexts such as annual household income levels, further highlighting the need of accounting for context information in PGS-based prediction across diverse populations.

Exploring the genetics of lithium response in bipolar disorders

BACKGROUND

Lithium (Li) remains the treatment of choice for bipolar disorders (BP). Its mood-stabilizing effects help reduce the long-term burden of mania, depression and suicide risk in patients with BP. It also has been shown to have beneficial effects on disease-associated conditions, including sleep and cardiovascular disorders. However, the individual responses to Li treatment vary within and between diagnostic subtypes of BP (e.g. BP-I and BP-II) according to the clinical presentation. Moreover, long-term Li treatment has been linked to adverse side-effects that are a cause of concern and non-adherence, including the risk of developing chronic medical conditions such as thyroid and renal disease. In recent years, studies by the Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLiGen) have uncovered a number of genetic factors that contribute to the variability in Li treatment response in patients with BP. Here, we leveraged the ConLiGen cohort (N = 2064) to investigate the genetic basis of Li effects in BP. For this, we studied how Li response and linked genes associate with the psychiatric symptoms and polygenic load for medical comorbidities, placing particular emphasis on identifying differences between BP-I and BP-II.

RESULTS

We found that clinical response to Li treatment, measured with the Alda scale, was associated with a diminished burden of mania, depression, substance and alcohol abuse, psychosis and suicidal ideation in patients with BP-I and, in patients with BP-II, of depression only. Our genetic analyses showed that a stronger clinical response to Li was modestly related to lower polygenic load for diabetes and hypertension in BP-I but not BP-II. Moreover, our results suggested that a number of genes that have been previously linked to Li response variability in BP differentially relate to the psychiatric symptomatology, particularly to the numbers of manic and depressive episodes, and to the polygenic load for comorbid conditions, including diabetes, hypertension and hypothyroidism.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our findings suggest that the effects of Li on symptomatology and comorbidity in BP are partially modulated by common genetic factors, with differential effects between BP-I and BP-II.

Decoding depression by exploring the exposome-genome edge amidst COVID-19 lockdown

Risk of depression increased in the general population after the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. By examining the interplay between genetics and individual environmental exposures during the COVID-19 lockdown, we have been able to gain an insight as to why some individuals are more vulnerable to depression, while others are more resilient. This study, conducted on a Spanish cohort of 9218 individuals (COVICAT), includes a comprehensive non-genetic risk analysis, the exposome, complemented by a genomics analysis in a subset of 2442 participants. Depression levels were evaluated using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Together with Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS), we introduced a novel score; Poly-Environmental Risk Scores (PERS) for non-genetic risks to estimate the effect of each cumulative score and gene-environment interaction. We found significant positive associations for PERSSoc (Social and Household), PERSLife (Lifestyle and Behaviour), and PERSEnv (Wider Environment and Health) scores across all levels of depression severity, and for PRSB (Broad depression) only for moderate depression (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.03-1.40). On average OR increased 1.2-fold for PERSEnv and 1.6-fold for PERLife and PERSoc from mild to severe depression level. The complete adjusted model explained 16.9% of the variance. We further observed an interaction between PERSEnv and PRSB showing a potential mitigating effect. In summary, stressors within the social and behavioral domains emerged as the primary drivers of depression risk in this population, unveiling a mitigating interaction effect that should be interpreted with caution.

Optimizing clinico-genomic disease prediction across ancestries: a machine learning strategy with Pareto improvement

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of an individual's predisposition to diseases is vital for preventive medicine and early intervention. Various statistical and machine learning models have been developed for disease prediction using clinico-genomic data. However, the accuracy of clinico-genomic prediction of diseases may vary significantly across ancestry groups due to their unequal representation in clinical genomic datasets.

METHODS

We introduced a deep transfer learning approach to improve the performance of clinico-genomic prediction models for data-disadvantaged ancestry groups. We conducted machine learning experiments on multi-ancestral genomic datasets of lung cancer, prostate cancer, and Alzheimer's disease, as well as on synthetic datasets with built-in data inequality and distribution shifts across ancestry groups.

RESULTS

Deep transfer learning significantly improved disease prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations in our multi-ancestral machine learning experiments. In contrast, transfer learning based on linear frameworks did not achieve comparable improvements for these data-disadvantaged populations.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that deep transfer learning can enhance fairness in multi-ancestral machine learning by improving prediction accuracy for data-disadvantaged populations without compromising prediction accuracy for other populations, thus providing a Pareto improvement towards equitable clinico-genomic prediction of diseases.

An interactive atlas of genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic biomarkers promotes the potential of proteins to predict complex diseases

Multiomics analyses have identified multiple potential biomarkers of the incidence and prevalence of complex diseases. However, it is not known which type of biomarker is optimal for clinical purposes. Here, we make a systematic comparison of 90 million genetic variants, 1453 proteins, and 325 metabolites from 500,000 individuals with complex diseases from the UK Biobank. A machine learning pipeline consisting of data cleaning, data imputation, feature selection, and model training using cross-validation and comparison of the results on holdout test sets showed that proteins were most predictive, followed by metabolites, and genetic variants. Only five proteins per disease resulted in median (min-max) areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for incidence of 0.79 (0.65-0.86) and 0.84 (0.70-0.91) for prevalence. In summary, our work suggests the potential of predicting complex diseases based on a limited number of proteins. We provide an interactive atlas (macd.shinyapps.io/ShinyApp/) to find genomic, proteomic, or metabolomic biomarkers for different complex diseases.

Multi-organ imaging-derived polygenic indexes for brain and body health

The UK Biobank (UKB) imaging project is a crucial resource for biomedical research, but is limited to 100,000 participants due to cost and accessibility barriers. Here we used genetic data to predict heritable imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs) for a larger cohort. We developed and evaluated 4,375 IDP genetic scores (IGS) derived from UKB brain and body images. When applied to UKB participants who were not imaged, IGS revealed links to numerous phenotypes and stratified participants at increased risk for both brain and somatic diseases. For example, IGS identified individuals at higher risk for Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis, offering additional insights beyond traditional polygenic risk scores of these diseases. When applied to independent external cohorts, IGS also stratified those at high disease risk in the All of Us Research Program and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study. Our results demonstrate that, while the UKB imaging cohort is largely healthy and may not be the most enriched for disease risk management, it holds immense potential for stratifying the risk of various brain and body diseases in broader external genetic cohorts.

Assessing the Value of Incorporating a Polygenic Risk Score with Nongenetic Factors for Predicting Breast Cancer Diagnosis in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated that incorporating a polygenic risk score (PRS) to existing risk prediction models for breast cancer improves model fit, but to determine its clinical utility the impact on risk categorization needs to be established. We add a PRS to two well-established models and quantify the difference in classification using the net reclassification improvement (NRI).

METHODS

We analyzed data from 126,490 post-menopausal women of "White British" ancestry, aged 40 to 69 years at baseline from the UK Biobank prospective cohort. The breast cancer outcome was derived from linked registry data and hospital records. We combined a PRS for breast cancer with 10-year risk scores from the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models, and compared these to the risk scores from the models using phenotypic variables alone. We report metrics of discrimination and classification, and consider the importance of the risk threshold selected.

RESULTS

The Harrell's C statistic of the 10-year risk from the Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models was 0.57 and 0.54, respectively, increasing to 0.67 when the PRS was included. Inclusion of the PRS gave a positive NRI for cases in both models [0.080 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.053-0.104) and 0.051 (95% CI, 0.030-0.073), respectively], with negligible impact on controls.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of a PRS for breast cancer to the well-established Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models provides a substantial improvement in the prediction accuracy and risk stratification.

IMPACT

These findings could have important implications for the ongoing discussion about the value of PRS in risk prediction models and screening.

Combined polygenic scores for ischemic stroke risk factors aid risk assessment of ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Current risk assessment for ischemic stroke (IS) is limited to clinical variables. We hypothesize that polygenic scores (PGS) of IS (PGSIS) and IS-associated diseases such as atrial fibrillation (AF), venous thromboembolism (VTE), coronary artery disease (CAD), hypertension (HTN), and Type 2 diabetes (T2D) may improve the performance of IS risk assessment.

METHODS

Incident IS was followed for 479,476 participants in the UK Biobank who did not have an IS diagnosis prior to the recruitment. Lifestyle variables (obesity, smoking and alcohol) at the time of study recruitment, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, PGSIS, and five PGSs for IS-associated diseases were tested using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Predictive performance was assessed using the C-statistic and net reclassification index (NRI).

RESULTS

During a median average 12.5-year follow-up, 8374 subjects were diagnosed with IS. Known clinical variables (age, gender, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, obesity, and smoking) and PGSIS were all independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). In addition, PGSIS and each PGS for IS-associated diseases was also independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). Compared to the clinical model, a joint clinical/PGS model improved the C-statistic for predicting IS from 0.71 to 0.73 (P < 0.001) and significantly reclassified IS risk (NRI = 0.017, P < 0.001), and 6.48% of subjects were upgraded from low to high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding PGSs of IS and IS-associated diseases to known clinical risk factors statistically improved risk assessment for IS, demonstrating the supplementary value of inherited susceptibility measurement . However, its clinical utility is likely limited due to modest improvements in predictive values.

Dynamics of cognitive variability with age and its genetic underpinning in NIHR BioResource Genes and Cognition cohort participants

A leading explanation for translational failure in neurodegenerative disease is that new drugs are evaluated late in the disease course when clinical features have become irreversible. Here, to address this gap, we cognitively profiled 21,051 people aged 17-85 years as part of the Genes and Cognition cohort within the National Institute for Health and Care Research BioResource across England. We describe the cohort, present cognitive trajectories and show the potential utility. Surprisingly, when studied at scale, the APOE genotype had negligible impact on cognitive performance. Different cognitive domains had distinct genetic architectures, with one indicating brain region-specific activation of microglia and another with glycogen metabolism. Thus, the molecular and cellular mechanisms underpinning cognition are distinct from dementia risk loci, presenting different targets to slow down age-related cognitive decline. Participants can now be recalled stratified by genotype and cognitive phenotype for natural history and interventional studies of neurodegenerative and other disorders.

The Polygenic Score Catalog: new functionality and tools to enable FAIR research

Polygenic scores (PGS) have transformed human genetic research and have multiple potential clinical applications, including risk stratification for disease prevention and prediction of treatment response. Here, we present a series of recent enhancements to the PGS Catalog (www.PGSCatalog.org), the largest findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) repository of PGS. These include expansions in data content and ancestral diversity as well as the addition of new features. We further present the PGS Catalog Calculator (pgsc_calc, https://github.com/PGScatalog/pgsc_calc), an open-source, scalable and portable pipeline to reproducibly calculate PGS that securely democratizes equitable PGS applications by implementing genetic ancestry estimation and score normalization using reference data. With the PGS Catalog & calculator users can now quantify an individual's genetic predisposition for hundreds of common diseases and clinically relevant traits. Taken together, these updates and tools facilitate the next generation of PGS, thus lowering barriers to the clinical studies necessary to identify where PGS may be integrated into clinical practice.

A polygenic score method boosted by non-additive models

Dominance heritability in complex traits has received increasing recognition. However, most polygenic score (PGS) approaches do not incorporate non-additive effects. Here, we present GenoBoost, a flexible PGS modeling framework capable of considering both additive and non-additive effects, specifically focusing on genetic dominance. Building on statistical boosting theory, we derive provably optimal GenoBoost scores and provide its efficient implementation for analyzing large-scale cohorts. We benchmark it against seven commonly used PGS methods and demonstrate its competitive predictive performance. GenoBoost is ranked the best for four traits and second-best for three traits among twelve tested disease outcomes in UK Biobank. We reveal that GenoBoost improves prediction for autoimmune diseases by incorporating non-additive effects localized in the MHC locus and, more broadly, works best in less polygenic traits. We further demonstrate that GenoBoost can infer the mode of genetic inheritance without requiring prior knowledge. For example, GenoBoost finds non-zero genetic dominance effects for 602 of 900 selected genetic variants, resulting in 2.5% improvements in predicting psoriasis cases. Lastly, we show that GenoBoost can prioritize genetic loci with genetic dominance not previously reported in the GWAS catalog. Our results highlight the increased accuracy and biological insights from incorporating non-additive effects in PGS models.

Gene-environment interactions in human health

Gene-environment interactions (G × E), the interplay of genetic variation with environmental factors, have a pivotal impact on human complex traits and diseases. Statistically, G × E can be assessed by determining the deviation from expectation of predictive models based solely on the phenotypic effects of genetics or environmental exposures. Despite the unprecedented, widespread and diverse use of G × E analytical frameworks, heterogeneity in their application and reporting hinders their applicability in public health. In this Review, we discuss study design considerations as well as G × E analytical frameworks to assess polygenic liability dependent on the environment, to identify specific genetic variants exhibiting G × E, and to characterize environmental context for these dynamics. We conclude with recommendations to address the most common challenges and pitfalls in the conceptualization, methodology and reporting of G × E studies, as well as future directions.

Screening embryos for polygenic disease risk: a review of epidemiological, clinical, and ethical considerations

BACKGROUND

The genetic composition of embryos generated by in vitro fertilization (IVF) can be examined with preimplantation genetic testing (PGT). Until recently, PGT was limited to detecting single-gene, high-risk pathogenic variants, large structural variants, and aneuploidy. Recent advances have made genome-wide genotyping of IVF embryos feasible and affordable, raising the possibility of screening embryos for their risk of polygenic diseases such as breast cancer, hypertension, diabetes, or schizophrenia. Despite a heated debate around this new technology, called polygenic embryo screening (PES; also PGT-P), it is already available to IVF patients in some countries. Several articles have studied epidemiological, clinical, and ethical perspectives on PES; however, a comprehensive, principled review of this emerging field is missing.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

This review has four main goals. First, given the interdisciplinary nature of PES studies, we aim to provide a self-contained educational background about PES to reproductive specialists interested in the subject. Second, we provide a comprehensive and critical review of arguments for and against the introduction of PES, crystallizing and prioritizing the key issues. We also cover the attitudes of IVF patients, clinicians, and the public towards PES. Third, we distinguish between possible future groups of PES patients, highlighting the benefits and harms pertaining to each group. Finally, our review, which is supported by ESHRE, is intended to aid healthcare professionals and policymakers in decision-making regarding whether to introduce PES in the clinic, and if so, how, and to whom.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched for PubMed-indexed articles published between 1/1/2003 and 1/3/2024 using the terms 'polygenic embryo screening', 'polygenic preimplantation', and 'PGT-P'. We limited the review to primary research papers in English whose main focus was PES for medical conditions. We also included papers that did not appear in the search but were deemed relevant.

OUTCOMES

The main theoretical benefit of PES is a reduction in lifetime polygenic disease risk for children born after screening. The magnitude of the risk reduction has been predicted based on statistical modelling, simulations, and sibling pair analyses. Results based on all methods suggest that under the best-case scenario, large relative risk reductions are possible for one or more diseases. However, as these models abstract several practical limitations, the realized benefits may be smaller, particularly due to a limited number of embryos and unclear future accuracy of the risk estimates. PES may negatively impact patients and their future children, as well as society. The main personal harms are an unindicated IVF treatment, a possible reduction in IVF success rates, and patient confusion, incomplete counselling, and choice overload. The main possible societal harms include discarded embryos, an increasing demand for 'designer babies', overemphasis of the genetic determinants of disease, unequal access, and lower utility in people of non-European ancestries. Benefits and harms will vary across the main potential patient groups, comprising patients already requiring IVF, fertile people with a history of a severe polygenic disease, and fertile healthy people. In the United States, the attitudes of IVF patients and the public towards PES seem positive, while healthcare professionals are cautious, sceptical about clinical utility, and concerned about patient counselling.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

The theoretical potential of PES to reduce risk across multiple polygenic diseases requires further research into its benefits and harms. Given the large number of practical limitations and possible harms, particularly unnecessary IVF treatments and discarded viable embryos, PES should be offered only within a research context before further clarity is achieved regarding its balance of benefits and harms. The gap in attitudes between healthcare professionals and the public needs to be narrowed by expanding public and patient education and providing resources for informative and unbiased genetic counselling.

Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease in a Greek Case-Control Study

Coronary artery disease (CAD) stands as the most predominant type of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have become essential tools for quantifying genetic susceptibility, and researchers endeavor to improve their predictive precision. The aim of the present work is to assess the performance and the relative contribution of PRSs developed for CVD or CAD within a Greek population. The sample under study comprised 924 Greek individuals (390 cases with CAD and 534 controls) from the THISEAS study. Nine PRSs drawn from the PGS catalog were replicated and tested for CAD risk prediction. PRSs computations were performed in the R language, and snpStats was used to process genotypic data. Descriptive characteristics of the study were analyzed using the statistical software IBM SPSS Statistics v21.0. The effectiveness of each PRS was assessed using the PRS R2 metric provided by PRSice2. Among nine PRSs, PGS000747 greatly increased the predictive value of primary CAD risk factors by 21.6% (p-value = 2.63 × 10-25). PGS000012 was associated with a modest increase in CAD risk by 2.2% (p-value = 9.58 × 10-4). The remarkable risk discrimination capability of PGS000747 stands out as the most noteworthy outcome of our study.

Polygenic Risk Score-Based Association Analysis Identifies Genetic Comorbidities Associated with Age-Related Hearing Difficulty in Two Independent Samples

PURPOSE

Age-related hearing loss is the most common form of permanent hearing loss that is associated with various health traits, including Alzheimer's disease, cognitive decline, and depression. The present study aims to identify genetic comorbidities of age-related hearing loss. Past genome-wide association studies identified multiple genomic loci involved in common adult-onset health traits. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) could summarize the polygenic inheritance and quantify the genetic susceptibility of complex traits independent of trait expression. The present study conducted a PRS-based association analysis of age-related hearing difficulty in the UK Biobank sample (N = 425,240), followed by a replication analysis using hearing thresholds (HTs) and distortion-product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) in 242 young adults with self-reported normal hearing. We hypothesized that young adults with genetic comorbidities associated with age-related hearing difficulty would exhibit subclinical decline in HTs and DPOAEs in both ears.

METHODS

A total of 111,243 participants reported age-related hearing difficulty in the UK Biobank sample (> 40 years). The PRS models were derived from the polygenic risk score catalog to obtain 2627 PRS predictors across the health spectrum. HTs (0.25-16 kHz) and DPOAEs (1-16 kHz, L1/L2 = 65/55 dB SPL, F2/F1 = 1.22) were measured on 242 young adults. Saliva-derived DNA samples were subjected to low-pass whole genome sequencing, followed by genome-wide imputation and PRS calculation. The logistic regression analyses were performed to identify PRS predictors of age-related hearing difficulty in the UK Biobank cohort. The linear mixed model analyses were performed to identify PRS predictors of HTs and DPOAEs.

RESULTS

The PRS-based association analysis identified 977 PRS predictors across the health spectrum associated with age-related hearing difficulty. Hearing difficulty and hearing aid use PRS predictors revealed the strongest association with the age-related hearing difficulty phenotype. Youth with a higher genetic predisposition to hearing difficulty revealed a subclinical elevation in HTs and a decline in DPOAEs in both ears. PRS predictors associated with age-related hearing difficulty were enriched for mental health, lifestyle, metabolic, sleep, reproductive, digestive, respiratory, hematopoietic, and immune traits. Fifty PRS predictors belonging to various trait categories were replicated for HTs and DPOAEs in both ears.

CONCLUSION

The study identified genetic comorbidities associated with age-related hearing loss across the health spectrum. Youth with a high genetic predisposition to age-related hearing difficulty and other related complex traits could exhibit sub-clinical decline in HTs and DPOAEs decades before clinically meaningful age-related hearing loss is observed. We posit that effective communication of genetic risk, promoting a healthy lifestyle, and reducing exposure to environmental risk factors at younger ages could help prevent or delay the onset of age-related hearing difficulty at older ages.

Polygenic risk score predicting susceptibility and outcome of benign prostatic hyperplasia in the Han Chinese

BACKGROUND

Given the high prevalence of BPH among elderly men, pinpointing those at elevated risk can aid in early intervention and effective management. This study aimed to explore that polygenic risk score (PRS) is effective in predicting benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) incidence, prognosis and risk of operation in Han Chinese.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study included 12,474 male participants (6,237 with BPH and 6,237 non-BPH controls) from the Taiwan Precision Medicine Initiative (TPMI). Genotyping was performed using the Affymetrix Genome-Wide TWB 2.0 SNP Array. PRS was calculated using PGS001865, comprising 1,712 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Logistic regression models assessed the association between PRS and BPH incidence, adjusting for age and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. The study also examined the relationship between PSA, prostate volume, and response to 5-α-reductase inhibitor (5ARI) treatment, as well as the association between PRS and the risk of TURP.

RESULTS

Individuals in the highest PRS quartile (Q4) had a significantly higher risk of BPH compared to the lowest quartile (Q1) (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.274-1.783, p < 0.0001), after adjusting for PSA level. The Q4 group exhibited larger prostate volumes and a smaller volume reduction after 5ARI treatment. The Q1 group had a lower cumulative TURP probability at 3, 5, and 10 years compared to the Q4 group. PRS Q4 was an independent risk factor for TURP.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Han Chinese cohort, higher PRS was associated with an increased susceptibility to BPH, larger prostate volumes, poorer response to 5ARI treatment, and a higher risk of TURP. Larger prospective studies with longer follow-up are warranted to further validate these findings.

Donor and recipient genetics: implications for the development of post-transplant diabetes mellitus

Post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) is a prevalent complication of liver transplantation and is associated with cardiometabolic complications. We studied the consequences of genetic effects of liver donors and recipients on PTDM outcomes, focusing on the diverse genetic pathways related to insulin that play a role in the development of PTDM. 1115 liver transplant recipients without a pre-transplant diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and their paired donors recruited from two transplant centers had polygenic risk scores (PRS) for T2D, insulin secretion, and insulin sensitivity calculated. Among recipients in the highest T2D-PRS quintile, donor T2D-PRS did not contribute significantly to PTDM. However, in recipients with the lowest T2D genetic risk, donor livers with the highest T2D-PRS contributed to the development of PTDM (OR (95% CI)=3.79 (1.10-13.1), p=0.035). Recipient risk was linked to factors associated with insulin secretion (OR (95% CI) = 0.85 (0.74-0.98), p=0.02), while donor livers contributed to PTDM via gene pathways involved in insulin sensitivity (OR (95% CI)=0.86 (0.75-0.99), p=0.03). Recipient and donor PRS independently and collectively serve as predictors of PTDM onset. The genetically influenced biological pathways in recipients primarily pertain to insulin secretion, whereas the genetic makeup of donors exerts an influence on insulin sensitivity.

Mapping structural variants to rare disease genes using long-read whole genome sequencing and trait-relevant polygenic scores

Recent studies have revealed the pervasive landscape of rare structural variants (rSVs) present in human genomes. rSVs can have extreme effects on the expression of proximal genes and, in a rare disease context, have been implicated in patient cases where no diagnostic single nucleotide variant (SNV) was found. Approaches for integrating rSVs to date have focused on targeted approaches in known Mendelian rare disease genes. This approach is intractable for rare diseases with many causal loci or patients with complex, multi-phenotype syndromes. We hypothesized that integrating trait-relevant polygenic scores (PGS) would provide a substantial reduction in the number of candidate disease genes in which to assess rSV effects. We further implemented a method for ranking PGS genes to define a set of core/key genes where a rSV has the potential to exert relatively larger effects on disease risk. Among a subset of patients enrolled in the Genomic Answers for Kids (GA4K) rare disease program (N=497), we used PacBio HiFi long-read whole genome sequencing (lrWGS) to identify rSVs intersecting genes in trait-relevant PGSs. Illustrating our approach in Autism (N=54 cases), we identified 22, 019 deletions, 2,041 duplications, 87,826 insertions, and 214 inversions overlapping putative core/key PGS genes. Additionally, by integrating genomic constraint annotations from gnomAD, we observed that rare duplications overlapping putative core/key PGS genes were frequently in higher constraint regions compared to controls (P = 1×10-03). This difference was not observed in the lowest-ranked gene set (P = 0.15). Overall, our study provides a framework for the annotation of long-read rSVs from lrWGS data and prioritization of disease-linked genomic regions for downstream functional validation of rSV impacts. To enable reuse by other researchers, we have made SV allele frequencies and gene associations freely available.

Genetic and transcriptomic landscape of colonic diverticulosis

OBJECTIVE

Colonic diverticulosis is a prevalent condition among older adults, marked by the presence of thin-walled pockets in the colon wall that can become inflamed, infected, haemorrhage or rupture. We present a case-control genetic and transcriptomic study aimed at identifying the genetic and cellular determinants underlying this condition and the relationship with other gastrointestinal disorders.

DESIGN

We conducted DNA and RNA sequencing on colonic tissue from 404 patients with (N=172) and without (N=232) diverticulosis. We investigated variation in the transcriptome associated with diverticulosis and further integrated this variation with single-cell RNA-seq data from the human intestine. We also integrated our expression quantitative trait loci with genome-wide association study using Mendelian randomisation (MR). Furthermore, a Polygenic Risk Score analysis gauged associations between diverticulosis severity and other gastrointestinal disorders.

RESULTS

We discerned 38 genes with differential expression and 17 with varied transcript usage linked to diverticulosis, indicating tissue remodelling as a primary diverticula formation mechanism. Diverticula formation was primarily linked to stromal and epithelial cells in the colon including endothelial cells, myofibroblasts, fibroblasts, goblet, tuft, enterocytes, neurons and glia. MR highlighted five genes including CCN3, CRISPLD2, ENTPD7, PHGR1 and TNFSF13, with potential causal effects on diverticulosis. Notably, ENTPD7 upregulation was confirmed in diverticulosis cases. Additionally, diverticulosis severity was positively correlated with genetic predisposition to diverticulitis.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that tissue remodelling is a primary mechanism for diverticula formation. Individuals with an increased genetic proclivity to diverticulitis exhibit a larger numbers of diverticula on colonoscopy.

Assessing the Clinical Utility of Published Prostate Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores in a Large Biobank Data Set

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been developed to identify men with the highest risk of prostate cancer. Our aim was to compare the performance of 16 PRSs in identifying men at risk of developing prostate cancer and then to evaluate the performance of the top-performing PRSs in differentiating individuals at risk of aggressive prostate cancer.

METHODS

For this case-control study we downloaded 16 published PRSs from the Polygenic Score Catalog on May 28, 2021 and applied them to Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI) patients. Cases were matched to the Michigan Urological Surgery Improvement Collaborative (MUSIC) registry to obtain granular clinical and pathological data. MGI prospectively enrolls patients undergoing surgery at the University of Michigan, and MUSIC is a multi-institutional registry that prospectively tracks demographic, treatment, and clinical variables. The predictive performance of each PRS was evaluated using the area under the covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic curve (aAUC), and the association between PRS and disease aggressiveness according to prostate biopsy data was measured using logistic regression.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

We included 18 050 patients in the analysis, of whom 15 310 were control subjects and 2740 were prostate cancer cases. The median age was 66.1 yr (interquartile range 59.9-71.6) for cases and 56.6 yr (interquartile range 42.6-66.7) for control subjects. The PRS performance in predicting the risk of developing prostate cancer according to aAUC ranged from 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.51-0.53) to 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.68). By contrast, there was no association between PRS and disease aggressiveness.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Prostate cancer PRSs have modest real-world performance in identifying patients at higher risk of developing prostate cancer; however, they are limited in distinguishing patients with indolent versus aggressive disease.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Risk scores using data for multiple genes (called polygenic risk scores) can identify men at higher risk of developing prostate cancer. However, these scores need to be refined to be able to identify men with the highest risk for clinically significant prostate cancer.

Generalizability of PGS313 for breast cancer risk in a Los Angeles biobank

Polygenic scores (PGSs) summarize the combined effect of common risk variants and are associated with breast cancer risk in patients without identifiable monogenic risk factors. One of the most well-validated PGSs in breast cancer to date is PGS313, which was developed from a Northern European biobank but has shown attenuated performance in non-European ancestries. We further investigate the generalizability of the PGS313 for American women of European (EA), African (AFR), Asian (EAA), and Latinx (HL) ancestry within one institution with a singular electronic health record (EHR) system, genotyping platform, and quality control process. We found that the PGS313 achieved overlapping areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUCs) in females of HL (AUC = 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.65-0.71) and EA ancestry (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.69-0.71) but lower AUCs for the AFR and EAA populations (AFR: AUC = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.56-0.65; EAA: AUC = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.60-0.680). While PGS313 is associated with hormone-receptor-positive (HR+) disease in EA Americans (odds ratio [OR] = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.16-1.64), this association is lost in African, Latinx, and Asian Americans. In summary, we found that PGS313 was significantly associated with breast cancer but with attenuated accuracy in women of AFR and EAA descent within a singular health system in Los Angeles. Our work further highlights the need for additional validation in diverse cohorts prior to the clinical implementation of PGSs.

Investigating the sources of variable impact of pathogenic variants in monogenic metabolic conditions

Over three percent of people carry a dominant pathogenic variant, yet only a fraction of carriers develop disease. Disease phenotypes from carriers of variants in the same gene range from mild to severe. Here, we investigate underlying mechanisms for this heterogeneity: variable variant effect sizes, carrier polygenic backgrounds, and modulation of carrier effect by genetic background (marginal epistasis). We leveraged exomes and clinical phenotypes from the UK Biobank and the Mt. Sinai BioMe Biobank to identify carriers of pathogenic variants affecting cardiometabolic traits. We employed recently developed methods to study these cohorts, observing strong statistical support and clinical translational potential for all three mechanisms of variable carrier penetrance and disease severity. For example, scores from our recent model of variant pathogenicity were tightly correlated with phenotype amongst clinical variant carriers, they predicted effects of variants of unknown significance, and they distinguished gain- from loss-of-function variants. We also found that polygenic scores predicted phenotypes amongst pathogenic carriers and that epistatic effects can exceed main carrier effects by an order of magnitude.

The Role of Genomic-Informed Risk Assessments in Predicting Dementia Outcomes

Importance

By integrating genetic and clinical risk factors into genomic-informed dementia risk reports, healthcare providers can offer patients detailed risk profiles to facilitate understanding of individual risk and support the implementation of personalized strategies for promoting brain health.

Objective

To develop a genomic-informed risk assessment composed of family history, genetic, and clinical risk factors and, in turn, evaluate how the risk assessment predicted incident dementia.

Design

This longitudinal study included data from two clinical case-control cohorts with an average of 6.6 visits. Secondary analyses were conducted from July 2023 - March 2024.

Setting

Data were previously collected across multiple US locations from 1994 to 2023.

Participants

Older adults aged 55+ with whole-genome sequencing and dementia-free at baseline.

Exposures

An additive score comprising the modified Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia Risk Score (mCAIDE), family history of dementia, APOE genotype, and an AD polygenic risk score.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The risk of progression to all-cause dementia was evaluated using Cox-proportional hazard models (hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals [OR 9%CI]).

Results

A total of 3,429 older adults were included (aged 75 ± 7 years; 59% female; 75% non-Latino White, 15% Black, 5.2% Latino, 3.6% other, and 0.4% Asian; 27% MCI), with 751 participants progressing to dementia. The most common high-risk indicator was a family history of dementia (56%), followed by APOE*ε4 genotype (36%), high mCAIDE score (34%), and high AD-PRS (11%). Most participants had at least one high-risk indicator, with 39% having one, 32% two, 9.8% three, and 1% four. The presence of 1, 2, 3, or 4 risk indicators was associated with a doubling (HR = 1.72, CI: 1.34-2.22, p = 2.5e-05), tripling (HR = 3.09, CI: 2.41-3.95, p = 4.4e-19), quadrupling (HR = 4.46, CI: 3.34-5.94, p = 2.2e-24), and a twelvefold increase (HR = 12.15, CI: 7.33-20.14, p = 3.2e-22) in dementia risk.

Conclusion & Relevance

We found that most participants in memory and aging clinics had at least one high-risk indicator for dementia. Furthermore, we observed a dose-response relationship where a greater number of risk indicators was associated with an increased risk of incident dementia.

Association of whole-person eigen-polygenic risk scores with Alzheimer's disease

Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease (LOAD) is a heterogeneous neurodegenerative disorder with complex etiology and high heritability. Its multifactorial risk profile and large portions of unexplained heritability suggest the involvement of yet unidentified genetic risk factors. Here we describe the "whole person" genetic risk landscape of polygenic risk scores for 2218 traits in 2044 elderly individuals and test if novel eigen-PRSs derived from clustered subnetworks of single-trait PRSs can improve the prediction of LOAD diagnosis, rates of cognitive decline, and canonical LOAD neuropathology. Network analyses revealed distinct clusters of PRSs with clinical and biological interpretability. Novel eigen-PRSs (ePRS) from these clusters significantly improved LOAD-related phenotypes prediction over current state-of-the-art LOAD PRS models. Notably, an ePRS representing clusters of traits related to cholesterol levels was able to improve variance explained in a model of the brain-wide beta-amyloid burden by 1.7% (likelihood ratio test P = 9.02 × 10-7). All associations of ePRS with LOAD phenotypes were eliminated by the removal of APOE-proximal loci. However, our association analysis identified modules characterized by PRSs of high cholesterol and LOAD. We believe this is due to the influence of the APOE region from both PRSs. We found significantly higher mean SNP effects for LOAD in the intersecting APOE region SNPs. Combining genetic risk factors for vascular traits and dementia could improve current single-trait PRS models of LOAD, enhancing the use of PRS in risk stratification. Our results are catalogued for the scientific community, to aid in generating new hypotheses based on our maps of clustered PRSs and associations with LOAD-related phenotypes.

A cross ancestry genetic study of psychiatric disorders from India

Genome-wide association studies across diverse populations may help validate and confirm genetic contributions to risk of disease. We estimated the extent of population stratification as well as the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores (PGS) derived from European samples to a data set from India. We analysed 2685 samples from two data sets, a population neurodevelopmental study (cVEDA) and a hospital-based sample of bipolar affective disorder (BD) and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Genotyping was conducted using Illumina's Global Screening Array. Population structure was examined with principal component analysis (PCA), uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP), support vector machine (SVM) ancestry predictions, and admixture analysis. PGS were calculated from the largest available European discovery GWAS summary statistics for BD, OCD, and externalizing traits using two Bayesian methods that incorporate local linkage disequilibrium structures (PGS-CS-auto) and functional genomic annotations (SBayesRC). Our analyses reveal global and continental PCA overlap with other South Asian populations. Admixture analysis revealed a north-south genetic axis within India (FST 1.6%). The UMAP partially reconstructed the contours of the Indian subcontinent. The Bayesian PGS analyses indicates moderate-to-high predictive power for BD. This was despite the cross-ancestry bias of the discovery GWAS dataset, with the currently available data. However, accuracy for OCD and externalizing traits was much lower. The predictive accuracy was perhaps influenced by the sample size of the discovery GWAS and phenotypic heterogeneity across the syndromes and traits studied. Our study results highlight the accuracy and generalizability of newer PGS models across ancestries. Further research, across diverse populations, would help understand causal mechanisms that contribute to psychiatric syndromes and traits.

Ultra-secure storage and analysis of genetic data for the advancement of precision medicine

Cloud computing provides the opportunity to store the ever-growing genotype-phenotype data sets needed to achieve the full potential of precision medicine. However, due to the sensitive nature of this data and the patchwork of data privacy laws across states and countries, additional security protections are proving necessary to ensure data privacy and security. Here we present SQUiD, a secure queryable database for storing and analyzing genotype-phenotype data. With SQUiD, genotype-phenotype data can be stored in a low-security, low-cost public cloud in the encrypted form, which researchers can securely query without the public cloud ever being able to decrypt the data. We demonstrate the usability of SQUiD by replicating various commonly used calculations such as polygenic risk scores, cohort creation for GWAS, MAF filtering, and patient similarity analysis both on synthetic and UK Biobank data. Our work represents a new and scalable platform enabling the realization of precision medicine without security and privacy concerns.

Utility of polygenic scores across diverse diseases in a hospital cohort for predictive modeling

Polygenic scores estimate genetic susceptibility to diseases. We systematically calculated polygenic scores across 457 phenotypes using genotyping array data from China Medical University Hospital. Logistic regression models assessed polygenic scores' ability to predict disease traits. The polygenic score model with the highest accuracy, based on maximal area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), is provided on the GeneAnaBase website of the hospital. Our findings indicate 49 phenotypes with AUC greater than 0.6, predominantly linked to endocrine and metabolic diseases. Notably, hyperplasia of the prostate exhibited the highest disease prediction ability (P value = 1.01 × 10-19, AUC = 0.874), highlighting the potential of these polygenic scores in preventive medicine and diagnosis. This study offers a comprehensive evaluation of polygenic scores performance across diverse human traits, identifying promising applications for precision medicine and personalized healthcare, thereby inspiring further research and development in this field.

Evaluating and improving health equity and fairness of polygenic scores

Polygenic scores (PGSs) are quantitative metrics for predicting phenotypic values, such as human height or disease status. Some PGS methods require only summary statistics of a relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS) for their score. One such method is Lassosum, which inherits the model selection advantages of Lasso to select a meaningful subset of the GWAS single-nucleotide polymorphisms as predictors from their association statistics. However, even efficient scores like Lassosum, when derived from European-based GWASs, are poor predictors of phenotype for subjects of non-European ancestry; that is, they have limited portability to other ancestries. To increase the portability of Lassosum, when GWAS information and estimates of linkage disequilibrium are available for both ancestries, we propose Joint-Lassosum (JLS). In the simulation settings we explore, JLS provides more accurate PGSs compared to other methods, especially when measured in terms of fairness. In analyses of UK Biobank data, JLS was computationally more efficient but slightly less accurate than a Bayesian comparator, SDPRX. Like all PGS methods, JLS requires selection of predictors, which are determined by data-driven tuning parameters. We describe a new approach to selecting tuning parameters and note its relevance for model selection for any PGS. We also draw connections to the literature on algorithmic fairness and discuss how JLS can help mitigate fairness-related harms that might result from the use of PGSs in clinical settings. While no PGS method is likely to be universally portable, due to the diversity of human populations and unequal information content of GWASs for different ancestries, JLS is an effective approach for enhancing portability and reducing predictive bias.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. We propose PRSmix, a framework that leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture for 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], [1.10; 1.3]; p = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI, [1.11; 1.27]; p = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI, [1.40; 2.04]; p = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI, [1.25; 1.59]; p = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously cross-trait-combination methods with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method improved prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI, [2.1; 4.44]; p value after false discovery rate (FDR) correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

Leveraging large-scale biobank EHRs to enhance pharmacogenetics of cardiometabolic disease medications

Electronic health records (EHRs) coupled with large-scale biobanks offer great promises to unravel the genetic underpinnings of treatment efficacy. However, medication-induced biomarker trajectories stemming from such records remain poorly studied. Here, we extract clinical and medication prescription data from EHRs and conduct GWAS and rare variant burden tests in the UK Biobank (discovery) and the All of Us program (replication) on ten cardiometabolic drug response outcomes including lipid response to statins, HbA1c response to metformin and blood pressure response to antihypertensives (N = 740-26,669). Our findings at genome-wide significance level recover previously reported pharmacogenetic signals and also include novel associations for lipid response to statins (N = 26,669) near LDLR and ZNF800. Importantly, these associations are treatment-specific and not associated with biomarker progression in medication-naive individuals. Furthermore, we demonstrate that individuals with higher genetically determined low-density and total cholesterol baseline levels experience increased absolute, albeit lower relative biomarker reduction following statin treatment. In summary, we systematically investigated the common and rare pharmacogenetic contribution to cardiometabolic drug response phenotypes in over 50,000 UK Biobank and All of Us participants with EHR and identified clinically relevant genetic predictors for improved personalized treatment strategies.

Genetic Risk, Health-Associated Lifestyle, and Risk of Early-onset Total Cancer and Breast Cancer

Importance

Early-onset cancer (diagnosed under 50 years of age) is associated with aggressive disease characteristics and its rising incidence is a global concern. The association between healthy lifestyle and early-onset cancer and whether it varies by common genetic variants is unknown.

Objective

To examine the associations between genetic risk, lifestyle, and risk of early-onset cancers.

Design Setting and Participants

We analyzed a prospective cohort of 66,308 white British participants who were under age 50 and free of cancer at baseline in the UK Biobank.

Exposures

Sex-specific composite total cancer polygenic risk scores (PRSs), a breast cancer-specific PRS, and sex-specific health-associated lifestyle scores (HLSs, which summarize smoking status, body mass index [males only], physical activity, alcohol consumption, and diet).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for early-onset total and breast cancer.

Results

A total of 1,247 incident invasive early-onset cancer cases (female: 820, male: 427, breast: 386) were documented. In multivariable-adjusted analyses with 2-year latency, higher genetic risk (highest vs. lowest tertile of PRS) was associated with significantly increased risks of early-onset total cancer in females (HR, 95% CI: 1.85, 1.50-2.29) and males (1.94, 1.45-2.59) as well as early-onset breast cancer in females (3.06, 2.20-4.25). An unfavorable lifestyle (highest vs. lowest category of HLS) was associated with higher risk of total cancer and breast cancer in females across genetic risk categories; the association with total cancer was stronger in the highest genetic risk category than the lowest: HRs in females and men were 1.85 (1.02, 3.36), 3.27 (0.78, 13.72) in the highest genetic risk category and 1.15 (0.44, 2.98), 1.16 (0.39, 3.40) in the lowest.

Conclusions and Relevance

Both genetic and lifestyle factors were independently associated with early-onset total and breast cancer risk. Compared to those with low genetic risk, individuals with a high genetic risk may benefit more from adopting a healthy lifestyle in preventing early-onset cancer.

A multi-ancestry GWAS of Fuchs corneal dystrophy highlights the contributions of laminins, collagen, and endothelial cell regulation

Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD) is a leading indication for corneal transplantation, but its molecular etiology remains poorly understood. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of FECD in the Million Veteran Program followed by multi-ancestry meta-analysis with the previous largest FECD GWAS, for a total of 3970 cases and 333,794 controls. We confirm the previous four loci, and identify eight novel loci: SSBP3, THSD7A, LAMB1, PIDD1, RORA, HS3ST3B1, LAMA5, and COL18A1. We further confirm the TCF4 locus in GWAS for admixed African and Hispanic/Latino ancestries and show an enrichment of European-ancestry haplotypes at TCF4 in FECD cases. Among the novel associations are low frequency missense variants in laminin genes LAMA5 and LAMB1 which, together with previously reported LAMC1, form laminin-511 (LM511). AlphaFold 2 protein modeling, validated through homology, suggests that mutations at LAMA5 and LAMB1 may destabilize LM511 by altering inter-domain interactions or extracellular matrix binding. Finally, phenome-wide association scans and colocalization analyses suggest that the TCF4 CTG18.1 trinucleotide repeat expansion leads to dysregulation of ion transport in the corneal endothelium and has pleiotropic effects on renal function.

Improving reporting standards for phenotyping algorithm in biomedical research: 5 fundamental dimensions

INTRODUCTION

Phenotyping algorithms enable the interpretation of complex health data and definition of clinically relevant phenotypes; they have become crucial in biomedical research. However, the lack of standardization and transparency inhibits the cross-comparison of findings among different studies, limits large scale meta-analyses, confuses the research community, and prevents the reuse of algorithms, which results in duplication of efforts and the waste of valuable resources.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Here, we propose five independent fundamental dimensions of phenotyping algorithms-complexity, performance, efficiency, implementability, and maintenance-through which researchers can describe, measure, and deploy any algorithms efficiently and effectively. These dimensions must be considered in the context of explicit use cases and transparent methods to ensure that they do not reflect unexpected biases or exacerbate inequities.

Immunogenetics of lithium response and psychiatric phenotypes in patients with bipolar disorder

The link between bipolar disorder (BP) and immune dysfunction remains controversial. While epidemiological studies have long suggested an association, recent research has found only limited evidence of such a relationship. To clarify this, we performed an exploratory study of the contributions of immune-relevant genetic factors to the response to lithium (Li) treatment and the clinical presentation of BP. First, we assessed the association of a large collection of immune-related genes (4925) with Li response, defined by the Retrospective Assessment of the Lithium Response Phenotype Scale (Alda scale), and clinical characteristics in patients with BP from the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen, N = 2374). Second, we calculated here previously published polygenic scores (PGSs) for immune-related traits and evaluated their associations with Li response and clinical features. Overall, we observed relatively weak associations (p < 1 × 10-4) with BP phenotypes within immune-related genes. Network and functional enrichment analyses of the top findings from the association analyses of Li response variables showed an overrepresentation of pathways participating in cell adhesion and intercellular communication. These appeared to converge on the well-known Li-induced inhibition of GSK-3β. Association analyses of age-at-onset, number of mood episodes, and presence of psychosis, substance abuse and/or suicidal ideation suggested modest contributions of genes such as RTN4, XKR4, NRXN1, NRG1/3 and GRK5 to disease characteristics. PGS analyses returned weak associations (p < 0.05) between inflammation markers and the studied BP phenotypes. Our results suggest a modest relationship between immunity and clinical features in BP. More research is needed to assess the potential therapeutic relevance.

Integration of polygenic and gut metagenomic risk prediction for common diseases

Multiomics has shown promise in noninvasive risk profiling and early detection of various common diseases. In the present study, in a prospective population-based cohort with ~18 years of e-health record follow-up, we investigated the incremental and combined value of genomic and gut metagenomic risk assessment compared with conventional risk factors for predicting incident coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), Alzheimer disease and prostate cancer. We found that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) improved prediction over conventional risk factors for all diseases. Gut microbiome scores improved predictive capacity over baseline age for CAD, T2D and prostate cancer. Integrated risk models of PRSs, gut microbiome scores and conventional risk factors achieved the highest predictive performance for all diseases studied compared with models based on conventional risk factors alone. The present study demonstrates that integrated PRSs and gut metagenomic risk models improve the predictive value over conventional risk factors for common chronic diseases.

A review of disease risk prediction methods and applications in the omics era

Risk prediction and disease prevention are the innovative care challenges of the 21st century. Apart from freeing the individual from the pain of disease, it will lead to low medical costs for society. Until very recently, risk assessments have ushered in a new era with the emergence of omics technologies, including genomics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, proteomics, and so on, which potentially advance the ability of biomarkers to aid prediction models. While risk prediction has achieved great success, there are still some challenges and limitations. We reviewed the general process of omics-based disease risk model construction and the applications in four typical diseases. Meanwhile, we highlighted the problems in current studies and explored the potential opportunities and challenges for future clinical practice.

Association between psychiatric admissions in patients with schizophrenia and IL-6 plasma levels polygenic score

Schizophrenia diagnosis and admission history were associated with a polygenic score (PGS) for schizophrenia based on a subset of variants that act by modifying the expression of genes whose expression is also modified by antipsychotics. This gene set was enriched in cytokine production. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is the only cytokine whose plasma levels were associated both with schizophrenia diagnosis and with acute decompensations in the largest meta-analysis. Therefore, we hypothesized that an IL-6 PGS, but not other cytokines PGSs, would be associated with schizophrenia chronicity/psychiatric admissions. Using the IL-6 PGS model from The PGS Catalog, IL-6 PGS was calculated in 427 patients with schizophrenia and data regarding admission history. Association between IL-6 PGS and chronicity, measured as number and duration of psychiatric admissions, or ever readmission was analyzed by multivariate ordinal and logistic regression, respectively. Specificity of results was assessed by analysis of PGSs from the other cytokines at The PGS Catalog with meta-analytic evidence of association with schizophrenia diagnosis or acute decompensations, IL-1RA, IL-4, IL-8, and IL-12. IL-6 PGS was associated with schizophrenia chronicity, explaining 1.51% of variability (OR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.07-1.55, P = 0.007). There was no association with ever readmission. Other cytokines PGSs were not associated with chronicity. Association with IL-6 PGS was independent of association with schizophrenia PGS. Our results provide evidence that genetically regulated higher levels of IL-6 are involved in schizophrenia chronicity, highlighting the relevance of immunity processes for a subgroup of patients.

An interactive atlas of genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic biomarkers promotes the potential of proteins to predict complex diseases

Multiomics analyses have identified multiple potential biomarkers of the incidence and prevalence of complex diseases. However, it is not known which type of biomarker is optimal for clinical purposes. Here, we make a systematic comparison of 90 million genetic variants, 1,453 proteins, and 325 metabolites from 500,000 individuals with complex diseases from the UK Biobank. A machine learning pipeline consisting of data cleaning, data imputation, feature selection, and model training using cross-validation and comparison of the results on holdout test sets showed that proteins were most predictive, followed by metabolites, and genetic variants. Only five proteins per disease resulted in median (min-max) areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for incidence of 0.79 (0.65-0.86) and 0.84 (0.70-0.91) for prevalence. In summary, our work suggests the potential of predicting complex diseases based on a limited number of proteins. We provide an interactive atlas (macd.shinyapps.io/ShinyApp/) to find genomic, proteomic, or metabolomic biomarkers for different complex diseases.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores for colorectal cancer have implications for risk-based screening

BACKGROUND

Hereditary factors, including single genetic variants and family history, can be used for targeting colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but limited data exist on the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on risk-based CRC screening.

METHODS

Using longitudinal health and genomics data on 453,733 Finnish individuals including 8801 CRC cases, we estimated the impact of a genome-wide CRC PRS on CRC screening initiation age through population-calibrated incidence estimation over the life course in men and women.

RESULTS

Compared to the cumulative incidence of CRC at age 60 in Finland (the current age for starting screening in Finland), a comparable cumulative incidence was reached 5 and 11 years earlier in persons with high PRS (80-99% and >99%, respectively), while those with a low PRS (< 20%) reached comparable incidence 7 years later. The PRS was associated with increased risk of post-colonoscopy CRC after negative colonoscopy (hazard ratio 1.76 per PRS SD, 95% CI 1.54-2.01). Moreover, the PRS predicted colorectal adenoma incidence and improved incident CRC risk prediction over non-genetic risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that a CRC PRS can be used for risk stratification of CRC, with further research needed to optimally integrate the PRS into risk-based screening.

Polygenic risk score comparator (PRScomp): Test population vs. worldwide populations

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are a powerful tool for predicting an individual's genetic risk for complex diseases.

METHODS

We have developed a web service (PRScomp) as a user-friendly tool to evaluate PRS of the user own population and compare it with worldwide populations.

RESULTS

A disease/trait database has been constructed from GWAS Catalog summary statistics. Genotype data of test population is uploaded and merged with the reference dataset (1000 Genome Project and Human Genome Diversity Project) to obtain a file including the common SNPs. The user can select a disease/trait from the database and a curated set of risk markers is used to calculate summatory PRS. Distribution of z-scored PRS values is presented in publication-ready plots and text files that can be downloaded.

DISCUSSION

PRScomp can be useful for public health decision-making by identifying population-specific genetic risk factors and informing the development of targeted interventions for at-risk populations.

Efficacy of federated learning on genomic data: a study on the UK Biobank and the 1000 Genomes Project

Combining training data from multiple sources increases sample size and reduces confounding, leading to more accurate and less biased machine learning models. In healthcare, however, direct pooling of data is often not allowed by data custodians who are accountable for minimizing the exposure of sensitive information. Federated learning offers a promising solution to this problem by training a model in a decentralized manner thus reducing the risks of data leakage. Although there is increasing utilization of federated learning on clinical data, its efficacy on individual-level genomic data has not been studied. This study lays the groundwork for the adoption of federated learning for genomic data by investigating its applicability in two scenarios: phenotype prediction on the UK Biobank data and ancestry prediction on the 1000 Genomes Project data. We show that federated models trained on data split into independent nodes achieve performance close to centralized models, even in the presence of significant inter-node heterogeneity. Additionally, we investigate how federated model accuracy is affected by communication frequency and suggest approaches to reduce computational complexity or communication costs.

Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools

Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.

Integration of risk factor polygenic risk score with disease polygenic risk score for disease prediction

Polygenic risk score (PRS) is useful for capturing an individual's genetic susceptibility. However, previous studies have not fully exploited the potential of the risk factor PRS (RFPRS) for disease prediction. We explored the potential of integrating disease-related RFPRSs with disease PRS to enhance disease prediction performance. We constructed 112 RFPRSs and analyzed the association of RFPRSs with diseases to identify disease-related RFPRSs in 700 diseases, using the UK Biobank dataset. We uncovered 6157 statistically significant associations between 247 diseases and 109 RFPRSs. We estimated the disease PRSs of 70 diseases that exhibited statistically significant heritability, to generate RFDiseasemetaPRS-a combined PRS integrating RFPRSs and disease PRS-and compare the prediction performance metrics between RFDiseasemetaPRS and disease PRS. RFDiseasemetaPRS showed better performance for Nagelkerke's pseudo-R2, odds ratio (OR) per 1 SD, net reclassification improvement (NRI) values and difference of R2 considered by variance of R2 in 31 out of 70 diseases. Additionally, we assessed risk classification between two models by examining OR between the top 10% and remaining 90% individuals for the 31 diseases; RFDiseasemetaPRS exhibited better R2, NRI and OR than disease PRS. These findings highlight the importance of utilizing RFDiseasemetaPRS, which can provide personalized healthcare and tailored prevention strategies.

Polygenic Risk Score in Predicting Esophageal, Oropharyngeal, and Hypopharynx Cancer Risk among Taiwanese Population

Esophageal cancer shares strong associations with oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers, primarily due to shared risk factors like excessive tobacco and alcohol use. This retrospective study at Taichung Veterans General Hospital involved 54,692 participants, including 385 with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the esophagus, oropharynx, or hypopharynx. Using a polygenic risk score (PRS) derived from 8353 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, researchers aimed to assess its correlation with cancer incidence and prognosis. The study found a 1.83-fold higher risk of esophageal, oropharyngeal, and hypopharyngeal SCCs in participants with a high PRS (Q4) compared to the low-PRS group (Q1). Esophageal cancer risk demonstrated a significant positive association with the PRS, as did hypopharyngeal cancer. Clinical parameters and staging showed limited associations with PRS quartiles, and the PRS did not significantly impact recurrence or mortality rates. The research highlighted that a higher PRS is linked to increased susceptibility to esophageal and hypopharyngeal cancer. Notably, a specific polygenic risk score, PGS001087, exhibited a discernible association with SCC risk, particularly in specific subtypes and advanced disease stages. However, it was not significantly linked to clinical cancer staging, emphasizing the multifactorial nature of cancer development. This hospital study reveals that a higher PRS correlates with increased susceptibility to esophageal and hypopharyngeal cancers. Notably, PGS001087 shows a discernible association with SCC risk in specific subtypes and advanced stages, although not significantly linked to clinical cancer staging. These findings enhance our understanding of genetic factors in upper aerodigestive tract cancers, particularly esophageal SCC, guiding future research and risk assessment strategies.