2019 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines

Predicted Cardiovascular Risk by the PREVENT Equations in US Adults With Stage 1 Hypertension

BACKGROUND

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline recommends initiation of antihypertensive medication for adults with stage 1 hypertension (systolic blood pressure, 130-139 mm Hg, or diastolic blood pressure, 80-89 mm Hg) and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥10% estimated by the pooled cohort equations (PCEs). In 2023, the American Heart Association published the predicting risk of cardiovascular disease events (PREVENT) equations to estimate ASCVD and total cardiovascular disease risk.

METHODS

We analyzed US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2013 to 2020 for 1703 adults aged 30 to 79 years without self-reported cardiovascular disease with stage 1 hypertension. We estimated 10-year ASCVD risk by the PCEs and 10-year ASCVD and total cardiovascular disease risk by the base PREVENT equations. Analyses were weighted to represent noninstitutionalized US adults with stage 1 hypertension.

RESULTS

Mean 10-year ASCVD risk was 5.4% (95% CI, 5.0%-5.9%) and 2.9% (95% CI, 2.7%-3.1%) using the PCEs and PREVENT equations, respectively. The proportion with 10-year ASCVD risk of 10% to <15% and ≥15% was 8.1% and 7.8% estimated by the PCEs, respectively, and 3.0% and 0.3% estimated by the PREVENT equations, respectively. No participants had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% on the PREVENT equations and <10% on the PCEs, while 12.5% had a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥10% on the PCEs and <10% on the PREVENT equations. The mean 10-year total cardiovascular disease risk estimated by the PREVENT equations was lower than the mean 10-year ASCVD risk on the PCEs.

CONCLUSIONS

Among US adults with stage 1 hypertension, the 10-year predicted ASCVD risk estimated by the PREVENT equations was approximately half the risk estimated by the PCEs.

The Role of Social Determinants of Health in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review seeks to provide important information on each of the major domains of social determinants of health (SDOH) in the context of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

SDOH can be classified into five domains: social and community context, health care access and quality, neighborhood and built environment, economic stability, and education access and quality. SDOH are major drivers for cardiovascular health outcomes that exceed the impact from traditional risk factors, and explain inequities in health outcomes observed across different groups of individuals. SDOH profoundly impacts healthcare's receipt, delivery, and outcomes. Many patients fall within various disenfranchised groups (e.g., identify with minority race, low socioeconomic status, low educational attainment, LGBTQ+), which impact overall health status and care. Learning to understand, recognize, and address SDOH as the driving force of disparities are critical for achieving health equity in the prevention and adequate treatment of ASCVD.

Cardiovascular disease and cancer: shared risk factors and mechanisms

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally, and these conditions are increasingly recognized to be fundamentally interconnected. In this Review, we present the current epidemiological data for each of the modifiable risk factors shared by the two diseases, including hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes mellitus, obesity, smoking, diet, physical activity and the social determinants of health. We then review the epidemiological data demonstrating the increased risk of CVD in patients with cancer, as well as the increased risk of cancer in patients with CVD. We also discuss the shared mechanisms implicated in the development of these conditions, highlighting their inherent bidirectional relationship. We conclude with a perspective on future research directions for the field of cardio-oncology to advance the care of patients with CVD and cancer.

Dietary Modulations in Preventing Cardiometabolic Risk in Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a complex health issue include obesity, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and chronic inflammation that increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). CVDs are of great concern in the disease progression and prognosis of T2DM. This review is a comprehensive examination of the literature on the relationship between T2DM and cardiovascular risk, nutrition-related cardiometabolic risk (CMR) factors, and impact of dietary modulations on CMR.

RECENT FINDINGS

In recent years the researches has been focus on the importance of a comprehensive treatment approach like dietary modulations to address multiple cardiovascular risk reductions, including hypertension and dyslipidemia. Modulation of dietary patterns are the most promising interventions to prevent CMR factors and T2DM via affecting the body weight, glucose control, and microbial diversity of individuals. Current evidence suggests that high-quality dietary patterns such as the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) eating plan and the Mediterranean diet is important in the metabolic control processes of T2DM with anti-inflammatory and antioxidant compounds, glucagon-like peptide agonist compounds, and intestinal microbiota changes. Nutrition plays a critical role in preventing and improving CVD outcomes in patients with T2DM. Dietary modulations should be planned considering individual differences in responses to dietary composition and nutritional changes, personal preferences, eating behaviors and gut microbiota differences.

When Does Primary Prevention Encroach on Secondary Prevention?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The risk of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in primary prevention is typically lower than in secondary prevention. However, there is a spectrum of risk among individuals undergoing primary prevention with the risk in some individuals approaching those of secondary prevention. We review the clinical conditions wherein the risk in primary prevention is similar to that observed in secondary prevention.

RECENT FINDINGS

Among individuals without established ASCVD, coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores ≥ 300 AU are associated with ASCVD event rates similar to secondary prevention populations. CAC score ≥ 1,000 AU are associated with an ASCVD risk seen in very high-risk secondary prevention populations. Interpretation of these observations must however consider differences in the risk reduction strategies. Current guidelines dichotomize ASCVD prevention into primary and secondary prevention, but certain primary prevention patients have an ASCVD risk equivalent to that of secondary prevention populations. Identifying higher risk primary prevention populations will allow for better risk mitigation strategies.

Cardiovascular Risk Factor Management After Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are associated with significantly increased risk of developing future cardiovascular disease (CVD). Obstetricians play a crucial role in CVD prevention for postpartum women and birthing people with HDP because they are primarily responsible for immediate postpartum management and can assist with care transitions to other health care practitioners for long-term management of CVD risk factors. Standardized calculators can be used to evaluate long-term CVD risk, which can help guide intensity of treatment. Emerging technologies such as remote blood pressure monitoring demonstrate promise for improving outcomes among patients with HDP. After HDP, all patients should be advised of their increased CVD risk. A plan should be made to initiate lifestyle modifications and antihypertensive therapy to achieve optimal blood pressure control with a target of lower than 130/80 mm Hg, assess lipids within 2-3 years of delivery, and evaluate for development of type 2 diabetes. Other CVD risk factors such as nicotine use should similarly be identified and addressed. In this review, we summarize the essential components of managing CVD risk after a pregnancy complicated by HDP, including blood pressure monitoring, risk stratification tools, and evidence-based lifestyle recommendations.

Diabetes and obesity burden and improvements in cardiometabolic parameters in patients with psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis receiving apremilast in a real-world setting

Introduction

Patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis have a higher prevalence of cardiometabolic comorbidities compared to the general population. Clinical data suggest apremilast may reduce weight and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c).

Objective

To describe changes in cardiometabolic parameters among patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis newly treated with apremilast by prediabetes/diabetes or obesity status.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of electronic medical records from patients with psoriasis and/or psoriatic arthritis in the OM1 Real-World Data Cloud who newly initiated apremilast. Changes from baseline in body mass index, weight, HbA1c, and lipids were evaluated at 6 and 12 months using a multivariable linear regression model stratified by prediabetes/diabetes or obesity status.

Results

Of 8487 patients initiating apremilast, 24% had diabetes. Of 8250 patients with body mass index available, 27% were obese and 34% were severely obese. Patients experienced decreases in body mass index and weight at 6 and 12 months regardless of diabetes or obesity status, with the greatest reductions seen in those with diabetes and obesity. Reductions in HbA1c at 6 months were seen in patients without diabetes and patients with severe obesity.

Conclusions

Treatment with apremilast may provide the greatest cardiometabolic benefit to those with the greatest burden of cardiometabolic disease.

Ancestry-aligned polygenic scores combined with conventional risk factors improve prediction of cardiometabolic outcomes in African populations

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a major health concern in Africa. Improved identification and treatment of high-risk individuals can reduce adverse health outcomes. Current CVD risk calculators are largely unvalidated in African populations and overlook genetic factors. Polygenic scores (PGS) can enhance risk prediction by measuring genetic susceptibility to CVD, but their effectiveness in genetically diverse populations is limited by a European-ancestry bias. To address this, we developed models integrating genetic data and conventional risk factors to assess the risk of developing cardiometabolic outcomes in African populations.

METHODS

We used summary statistics from a genome-wide association meta-analysis (n = 14,126) in African populations to derive novel genome-wide PGS for 14 cardiometabolic traits in an independent African target sample (Africa Wits-INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Research (AWI-Gen), n = 10,603). Regression analyses assessed relationships between each PGS and corresponding cardiometabolic trait, and seven CVD outcomes (CVD, heart attack, stroke, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and obesity). The predictive utility of the genetic data was evaluated using elastic net models containing multiple PGS (MultiPGS) and reference-projected principal components of ancestry (PPCs). An integrated risk prediction model incorporating genetic and conventional risk factors was developed. Nested cross-validation was used when deriving elastic net models to enhance generalisability.

RESULTS

Our African-specific PGS displayed significant but variable within- and cross- trait prediction (max.R2 = 6.8%, p = 1.86 × 10-173). Significantly associated PGS with dyslipidaemia included the PGS for total cholesterol (logOR = 0.210, SE = 0.022, p = 2.18 × 10-21) and low-density lipoprotein (logOR =  - 0.141, SE = 0.022, p = 1.30 × 10-20); with hypertension, the systolic blood pressure PGS (logOR = 0.150, SE = 0.045, p = 8.34 × 10-4); and multiple PGS associated with obesity: body mass index (max. logOR = 0.131, SE = 0.031, p = 2.22 × 10-5), hip circumference (logOR = 0.122, SE = 0.029, p = 2.28 × 10-5), waist circumference (logOR = 0.013, SE = 0.098, p = 8.13 × 10-4) and weight (logOR = 0.103, SE = 0.029, p = 4.89 × 10-5). Elastic net models incorporating MultiPGS and PPCs significantly improved prediction over MultiPGS alone. Models including genetic data and conventional risk factors were more predictive than conventional risk models alone (dyslipidaemia: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 4.45 × 10-12; hypertension: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 2.37 × 10-13; obesity: R2 increase = 5.5%, 1.33 × 10-34).

CONCLUSIONS

In African populations, CVD and associated cardiometabolic trait prediction models can be improved by incorporating ancestry-aligned PGS and accounting for ancestry. Combining PGS with conventional risk factors further enhances prediction over traditional models based on conventional factors. Incorporating data from target populations can improve the generalisability of international predictive models for CVD and associated traits in African populations.

Reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the coronary artery disease empowerment scale (CADES) in patients with coronary artery disease after percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

Empowerment is a comprehensive concept involving intrapersonal, interactional, and behavioral aspects. However, there is a lack of a specific empowerment scale for Coronary artery disease (CAD) related to knowledge and skills in China. The reliability and validity of the Coronary Artery Disease Empowerment Scale (CADES) need to be tested. This study aimed to assess the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of CADES among patients with CAD in China.

METHODS

The study adopted a cross-sectional design. After obtaining the copyright by contacting the author, the original English CADES was developed into Chinese by forward translation, back-translation, cross-cultural adaptation, and a pretest (30 patients). The Chinese version of CADES was administered to 391 CAD patients between September 2022 and June 2023, with the reliability and validity of the version evaluated. Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were performed to examine the underlying factor structure of the translated questionnaire. The Cronbach's α coefficient, Guttman's split-half coefficient, and McDonald's omega coefficient were calculated to verify the scale's reliability.

RESULTS

For the Chinese version of CADES, the scale-content validity index was 0.972, with the item-content validity index ranging from 0.86 to 1.00. The questionnaire comprised 25 items, and exploratory factor analysis extracted four factors with loadings > 0.40, explaining 62.382% of the total variance. An acceptable model fit was achieved (χ2/df = 1.764, RMSEA = 0.060, TLI = 0.901, CFI = 0.912, IFI = 0.913). The Cronbach's α coefficient of the total questionnaire was 0.928, with coefficients for the four factors ranging from 0.683 to 0.913. The split-half reliability coefficient was 0.777, and the McDonald's omega reliability coefficient was 0.926.

CONCLUSIONS

The Chinese version of CADES is reliable and valid among CAD patients in China. This instrument can serve as a valuable reference for guiding the implementation of targeted intervention strategies tailored to the empowerment status of CAD patients in clinical practice.

Evaluation of infectious diseases physicians' attitudes to dyslipidemia management in PLWH

OBJECTIVES

Dyslipidemia is a well-established risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). ASCVD prevalence among people living with HIV (PLWH) is twice that of the general population. This study aimed to evaluate the infectious diseases (ID) physicians' attitudes on dyslipidemia management in PLWH.

METHODS

This observational, cross-sectional study was conducted as online survey among ID physicians between November 2023 and February 2024. An e-mail with the survey link, title and purpose of the study was sent to physicians through the local ID societies. The survey included questions about physicians' demographic characteristics and their attitudes toward treating dyslipidemia in PLWH.

RESULTS

A total of 242 physicians responded to the survey, of whom 59.9% (n = 145) were ID specialists and 40.1% (n = 97) were ID residents. Forty-one percent (n = 100) of physicians reported that they did not follow a guideline, and 26% of physicians reported that they did not use a cardiovascular risk calculator in their clinical practice. Specialists (69%) were more likely than residents (43.3%) to follow clinical guidelines for dyslipidemia management (p < 0.001). Seventy-two percent (n = 174) of physicians doubted the need to treat dyslipidemia, and 73% (n = 177) of physicians were affected by the patient skepticism. Workload and lack of time were identified by 68.6% of physicians as barriers to implementing dyslipidemia guideline recommendations.

CONCLUSION

A considerable number of Turkish ID physicians did not prefer using clinical guidelines for dyslipidemia and ASCVD risk calculators. Statin prescribing of physicians was influenced by workload, lack of time, patient skepticism, and lack of knowledge. Training ID physicians in primary prevention of ASCVD and management of dyslipidemia in PLWH is paramount.

DNA methylation in cardiovascular disease and heart failure: novel prediction models?

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) affect over half a billion people worldwide and are the leading cause of global deaths. In particular, due to population aging and worldwide spreading of risk factors, the prevalence of heart failure (HF) is also increasing. HF accounts for approximately 36% of all CVD-related deaths and stands as the foremost cause of hospitalization. Patients affected by CVD or HF experience a substantial decrease in health-related quality of life compared to healthy subjects or affected by other diffused chronic diseases.

MAIN BODY

For both CVD and HF, prediction models have been developed, which utilize patient data, routine laboratory and further diagnostic tests. While some of these scores are currently used in clinical practice, there still is a need for innovative approaches to optimize CVD and HF prediction and to reduce the impact of these conditions on the global population. Epigenetic biomarkers, particularly DNA methylation (DNAm) changes, offer valuable insight for predicting risk, disease diagnosis and prognosis, and for monitoring treatment. The present work reviews current information relating DNAm, CVD and HF and discusses the use of DNAm in improving clinical risk prediction of CVD and HF as well as that of DNAm age as a proxy for cardiac aging.

CONCLUSION

DNAm biomarkers offer a valuable contribution to improving the accuracy of CV risk models. Many CpG sites have been adopted to develop specific prediction scores for CVD and HF with similar or enhanced performance on the top of existing risk measures. In the near future, integrating data from DNA methylome and other sources and advancements in new machine learning algorithms will help develop more precise and personalized risk prediction methods for CVD and HF.

Periconceptional Dietary Quality and Metabolic Syndrome at 3 Years Postpartum

BACKGROUND

The period around pregnancy is a critical window in the primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease, but little is known about the role of dietary patterns in cardiometabolic health. Our objective was to determine the association between alignment of periconceptional diet with the 2020 to 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans and the risk of metabolic syndrome.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: monitoring mothers-to-Be Heart Health Study, a pregnancy cohort study that followed pregnant participants to a median of 3 years postpartum (n=4423). Usual dietary intake in the 3 months around conception was estimated from a Food Frequency Questionnaire. Alignment with the Dietary Guidelines was measured using the Healthy Eating Index-2020, where higher scores represent greater alignment. Postpartum metabolic syndrome was defined using the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute guideline. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome at 3 years postpartum was 20%. After adjusting for confounders, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was flat up to a periconceptional Healthy Eating Index-2020 total score of ≈60, and then declined steeply as scores increased. Compared with a Healthy Eating Index-2020 score of 60, having scores of 70, 80, and 90 were associated with 2, 4, and 7 fewer cases of metabolic syndrome per 100 individuals, respectively (prevalence differences: -0.02 [95% CI, -0.03, 0]; -0.04 [-0.08, -0.1]; -0.07 [-0.13, -0.02]).

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary interventions around conception and systems-level changes to support high diet quality may be important for improving postpartum cardiometabolic health, and helping to reverse or slow the decline in women's cardiometabolic health.

Cardiovascular Risks in People With Narcolepsy: Expert Panel Consensus Recommendations

BACKGROUND

Observational and retrospective studies suggest that people with narcolepsy may have an increased prevalence of cardiovascular and cardiometabolic comorbidities and may be at greater risk for future cardiovascular events. An expert consensus panel was formed to establish agreement on the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular/cardiometabolic disease in people with narcolepsy and to develop strategies to mitigate these risks.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Experts in sleep medicine and cardiology were selected to participate in the panel. After reviewing the relevant literature, the experts identified key elements, drafted recommendation statements, and developed discussion points to provide supporting evidence for the recommendations. The draft and final recommendations were rated on a scale from 0 (not at all agree) to 4 (very much agree). All experts had an agreement rating of 4.0 for all 14 revised recommendation statements for patients with narcolepsy. These statements comprised 3 themes: (1) recognize the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular/cardiometabolic disease, (2) reduce the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular/cardiometabolic disease, and (3) reduce sodium intake to lower the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

These consensus recommendations are intended to increase awareness of potential cardiovascular/cardiometabolic risks in patients with narcolepsy for all clinicians. Early monitoring for, and prevention of, cardiovascular risks in this population are of great importance, especially as narcolepsy usually develops in adolescents and young adults, who will be exposed to adverse effects of the disease for decades. Prospective systematic studies are needed to determine association and causation of narcolepsy with cardiovascular/cardiometabolic disorders.

Clinical Advances in Cardiovascular Computed Tomography: From Present Applications to Promising Developments

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

This review aims to provide a profound overview on most recent studies on the clinical significance of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography (CCT) in diagnostic and therapeutic pathways. Herby, this review helps to pave the way for a more extended but yet purposefully use in modern day cardiovascular medicine.

RECENT FINDINGS

In recent years, new clinical applications of CCT have emerged. Major applications include the assessment of coronary artery disease and structural heart disease, with corresponding recommendations by major guidelines of international societies. While CCT already allows for a rapid and non-invasive diagnosis, technical improvements enable further in-depth assessments using novel imaging parameters with high temporal and spatial resolution. Those developments facilitate diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making as well as improved prognostication. This review determined that recent advancements in both hardware and software components of CCT allow for highly advanced examinations with little radiation exposure. This particularly strengthens its role in preventive care and coronary artery disease. The addition of functional analyses within and beyond coronary artery disease offers solutions in wide-ranging patient populations. Many techniques still require improvement and validation, however, CCT possesses potential to become a "one-stop-shop" examination.

Coronary computed tomography angiography improves assessment of patients with acute chest pain and inconclusively elevated high-sensitivity troponins

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) can improve the diagnostic work-up of patients with acute chest pain and inconclusively high-sensitivity troponins (hs-troponin).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, blinded, observational, multicentre study. Patients aged 30-80 years presenting to the emergency department with acute chest pain and inconclusively elevated hs-troponins were included and underwent CCTA. The primary outcome was the diagnostic accuracy of ≥ 50% stenosis on CCTA to identify patients with type-1 non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS).

RESULTS

A total of 106 patients (mean age 65 ± 10, 29% women) were enrolled of whom 20 patients (19%) had an adjudicated diagnosis of type-1 NSTE-ACS. In 45 patients, CCTA revealed non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or no CAD. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value and area-under-the-curve (AUC) of ≥ 50% stenosis on CCTA to identify patients with type 1 NSTE-ACS, was 95% (95% confidence interval: 74-100), 56% (45-68), 98% (87-100), 35% (29-41) and 0.83 (0.73-0.94), respectively. When only coronary segments with a diameter ≥ 2 mm were considered for the adjudication of type 1 NSTE-ACS, the sensitivity and NPV increased to 100%. In 8 patients, CCTA enabled the detection of clinically relevant non-coronary findings.

CONCLUSION

The absence of ≥ 50% coronary artery stenosis on CCTA can be used to rule out type 1 NSTE-ACS in acute chest pain patients with inconclusively elevated hs-troponins. Additionally, CCTA can help improve the diagnostic work-up by detecting other relevant conditions that cause acute chest pain and inconclusively elevated hs-troponins.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Coronary CTA (CCTA) can safely rule out type 1 non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) in patients presenting to the ED with acute chest pain and inconclusively elevated hs-troponins, while also detecting other relevant non-coronary conditions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03129659). Registered on 26 April 2017 KEY POINTS: Acute chest discomfort is a common presenting complaint in the emergency department. CCTA achieved very high negative predictive values for type 1 NSTE-ACS in this population. CCTA can serve as an adjunct for evaluating equivocal ACS and evaluates for other pathology.

Aspirin: latest evidence and developments

Aspirin is a foundation drug of the pharmaceutical industry originally derived as an analgesic/anti-inflammatory agent but serendipitously discovered to have use as a prophylactic drug for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Its modern-day utility in this latter role relies on its efficacy/safety balance in a contemporary population where, at least in high-income countries, age-standardised incident rates for MACE are falling, and where there are now competing therapeutic agents. Its future may be determined by its potential role as a chemoprophylactic or adjunct agent for cancer or other disease states. It therefore will continue to be the subject of further clinical research.

Identifying a Heterogeneous Effect of Atrial Fibrillation Screening in Older Adults: A Secondary Analysis of the VITAL-AF Trial

Background

One-time atrial fibrillation (AF) screening trials have produced mixed results; however, it is unclear if there is a subset for whom screening is effective. Identifying such a subgroup would support targeted screening.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of VITAL-AF, a randomized trial of one-time, single-lead ECG screening during primary care visits. We tested two approaches to identify a subgroup where screening is effective. First, we developed an effect-based model using a T-learner. Specifically, we separately predicted the likelihood of AF diagnosis under screening and usual care conditions; the difference in probabilities was the predicted screening effect. Second, we used a validated AF risk model to test for a heterogeneous screening effect. We used interaction testing to determine if observed AF diagnosis rates in the screening and usual care groups differed when stratified by decile of the predicted screening effect and predicted AF risk.

Results

Baseline characteristics were similar between the screening (n=15187) and usual care (n=15078) groups (mean age 74 years, 59% female). In the effect-based analysis, in the highest decile of predicted screening effectiveness (n=3026), AF diagnosis rates were higher in the screening group (6.50 vs. 3.06 per 100 person-years, rate difference 3.45, 95%CI 1.62 to 5.28). In this group, the mean age was 84 years and 68% were female. The risk-based analysis did not identify a subgroup where screening was more effective. Predicted screening effectiveness and predicted baseline AF risk were poorly correlated (Spearman coefficient 0.13).

Conclusions

In a secondary analysis of the VITAL-AF trial, we identified a small subgroup where one-time screening was associated with increased AF diagnoses using an effect-based approach. In this study, predicted AF risk was a poor proxy for predicted screening effectiveness. These data caution against the assumption that high AF risk is necessarily correlated with high screening effectiveness.

Age and sex specific thresholds for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease and clinical decision making: prospective open cohort study

Objective

To quantify the potential advantages of using 10 year risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease, in combination with risk thresholds specific to both age and sex, to identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease for allocation of statin treatment.

Design

Prospective open cohort study.

Setting

Primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, linked with hospital admissions from Hospital Episode Statistics and national mortality records from the Office for National Statistics in England, 1 January 2006 to 31 May 2019.

Participants

1 046 736 individuals (aged 40-85 years) with no cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or a history of statin treatment at baseline using data from electronic health records.

Main outcome measures

10 year risk of cardiovascular disease, calculated with version 2 of the QRISK cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (QRISK2), with two main strategies to identify individuals at high risk: in strategy A, estimated risk was a fixed cut-off value of ≥10% (ie, as per the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines); in strategy B, estimated risk was ≥10% or ≥90th centile of age and sex specific risk distributions.

Results

Compared with strategy A, strategy B stratified 20 241 (149.8%) more women aged ≤53 years and 9832 (150.2%) more men aged ≤47 years as having a high risk of cardiovascular disease; for all other ages the strategies were the same. Assuming that treatment with statins would be initiated in those identified as high risk, differences in the estimated gain in cardiovascular disease-free life years from statin treatment for strategy B versus strategy A were 0.14 and 0.16 years for women and men aged 40 years, respectively; among individuals aged 40-49 years, the numbers needed to treat to prevent one cardiovascular disease event for strategy B versus strategy A were 39 versus 21 in women and 19 versus 15 in men, respectively.

Conclusions

This study quantified the potential gains in cardiovascular disease-free life years when implementing prevention strategies based on age and sex specific risk thresholds instead of a fixed risk threshold for allocation of statin treatment. Such gains should be weighed against the costs of treating more younger people with statins for longer.

Treating Hypercholesterolemia in Older Adults for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Events

As the population ages, the demographic of adults aged 75 years and older in the U.S. is projected to grow to 45 million by 2050. Hypercholesterolemia is directly linked to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which remains the leading cause of death in older adults. However, primary prevention of ASCVD through lipid-lowering agents remains unclear among older adults owing to limited involvement of older adults in current trials, lack of dedicated trials, and evidence primarily derived from secondary and retrospective analyses. Therefore, this article aims to (1) review key updates from the latest guidelines on treatment of hypercholesterolemia in older adults, (2) highlight limitations of the current ASCVD risk scores in the geriatric population, (3) present outcomes from key studies on the use of lipid-lowering agents and associated side effects, including a brief review of novel agents such as bempedoic acid, although very few adults over age 75 were included in these trial, and (4) finally, highlight upcoming dedicated trials of statins in older adults for the primary prevention of important geriatric outcomes as well as ASCVD.

Tuberculosis survivors and the risk of cardiovascular disease: analysis using a nationwide survey in Korea

Background

Although the association between tuberculosis (TB) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been reported in several studies and is explained by mechanisms related to chronic inflammation, few studies have comprehensively evaluated the association between TB and CVD in Korea.

Methods

Using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey, we classified individuals according to the presence or absence of previous pulmonary TB was defined as the formal reading of a chest radiograph or a previous diagnosis of pulmonary TB by a physician. Using multivariable logistic regression analyses, we evaluated the association between the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disorder (ASCVD) risk and TB exposure, as well as the 10-year ASCVD risk according to epidemiological characteristics.

Results

Among the 69,331 participants, 4% (n = 3,101) had post-TB survivor group. Comparing the 10-year ASCVD risk between the post-TB survivor and control groups, the post-TB survivor group had an increased 10-year ASCVD risk in the high-risk group (40.46% vs. 24.00%, P < 0.001). Compared to the control group, the intermediate- and high-risk groups had also significantly increased 10-year ASCVD risks (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.23 and OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.59-1.78, respectively) in the post-TB survivor group. In the association of CVD among post-TB survivors according to epidemiologic characteristics, age [adjusted OR (aOR) 1.10, 95% CI 1.07-1.12], current smoking (aOR 2.63, 95% CI 1.34-5.14), a high family income (aOR 2.48, 95% CI 1.33-4.62), diabetes mellitus (aOR 1.97, 95% CI 1.23-3.14), and depression (aOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.03-4.10) were associated with CVD in the post-TB survivor group.

Conclusions

Our study findings suggest a higher 10-year ASCVD risk among TB survivors than healthy participants. This warrants long-term cardiovascular monitoring and management of the post-TB population.

Frailty and Cardiovascular Health

The incidence of frailty and cardiovascular disease (CVD) increases as the population ages. There is a bidirectional relationship between frailty and CVD, and both conditions share several risk factors and underlying biological mechanisms. Frailty has been established as an independent prognostic marker in patients with CVD. Moreover, its presence significantly influences both primary and secondary prevention strategies for adults with CVD while also posing a barrier to the inclusion of these patients in pivotal clinical trials and advanced cardiac interventions. This review discusses the current knowledge base on the relationship between frailty and CVD, how managing CVD risk factors can modify frailty, the influence of frailty on CVD management, and future directions for frailty detection and modification in patients with CVD.

The Nonlinear Relationship Between High-Density Lipoprotein and Changes in Pulmonary Structure Function and Pulmonary Function in COPD Patients in China

Background

The previous findings on the correlation between spirometry and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol are intriguing yet conflicting. The aim of this research is to evaluate the relationship between HDL levels and spirometry as well as imaging parameters in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China.

Methods

This study encompasses a total of 907 COPD patients. Participants with complete data from questionnaire interviews, lipid profile examinations, spirometry testing, and computed tomography (CT) scans were included in the analysis. A generalized additive model was employed to identify the non-linear relationship between HDL levels and both spirometry and imaging parameters. In the presence of non-linear correlations, segmented linear regression model was applied to ascertain threshold effects.

Results

After adjusting for various factors, we found a non-linear correlation between HDL levels and spirometry/imaging parameters, with an inflection point at 4.2 (66 mg/dL). When Ln (HDL) was below 4.2, each unit increase correlated significantly with reduced post-bronchodilator FEV1 (0.32L, 95% CI: 0.09-0.55), decreased predicted FEV1% (11.0%, 95% CI: 2.7-19.3), and lowered FEV1/FVC (8.0%, 95% CI: 4.0-12.0), along with notable increases in Ln (LAA-950) by 1.20 (95% CI: 0.60-1.79) and Ln (LAA-856) by 0.77 (95% CI: 0.37-1.17). However, no significant associations were observed when Ln (HDL) was greater than or equal to 4.2.

Conclusion

A non-linear correlation existed between HDL levels with lung function and CT imaging in COPD patients. Prior to reaching 66 mg/dL, an elevation in HDL was significantly associated with impaired lung function, more severe gas trapping and emphysema.

Recipe for Heart Health: A Randomized Crossover Trial on Cardiometabolic Effects of Extra Virgin Olive Oil Within a Whole-Food Plant-Based Vegan Diet

BACKGROUND

Whole-food, plant-based vegan diets, low in oils, and Mediterranean diets, rich in extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), reduce cardiovascular disease risk factors. Optimal quantity of dietary fat, particularly EVOO, is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a randomized crossover trial with weekly cooking classes, adults with ≥5% cardiovascular disease risk followed a high (4 tablespoons/day) to low (<1 teaspoon/day) or low to high EVOO whole-food, plant-based diet for 4 weeks each, separated by a 1-week washout. The primary outcome was difference in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) from baseline. Secondary measures were changes in additional cardiometabolic markers. Linear mixed models assessed changes from baseline between phases, with age, sex, and body weight change as covariates. In 40 participants, fat intake comprised 48% and 32% of energy during high and low EVOO phases, respectively. Both diets resulted in comparable reductions in LDL-C, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, glucose, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (all P<0.05). With diet-sequence interactions for LDL-C, differences were detected between diets by diet order (mean±SEM high to low: Δ-12.7[5.9] mg/dL, P=0.04 versus low to high: Δ+15.8[6.8] mg/dL, P=0.02). Similarly, low to high order led to increased glucose, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all P<0.05). Over period 1, LDL-C reductions were -25.5(5.1) post-low versus -16.7(4.2) mg/dL post-high EVOO, P=0.162, which diminished over period 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Both plant-based diet patterns improved cardiometabolic risk profiles compared with baseline diets, with more pronounced decreases in LDL-C after the low EVOO diet. Addition of EVOO after following a low intake pattern may impede further lipid reductions.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04828447.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Estimates Using the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events Equations

Importance

In 2023, the American Heart Association (AHA) developed the Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events (PREVENT) equations to estimate 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), as an update to the 2013 pooled cohort equations (PCEs). The PREVENT equations were derived from contemporary cohorts and removed race and added variables for kidney function and statin use.

Objective

To compare national estimates of 10-year ASCVD risk using the PCEs and PREVENT equations and how these equations affect recommendations for primary prevention statin therapy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study included adults aged 40 to 75 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2017 to March 2020. Adults were defined as eligible for primary prevention statin use based on the 2019 AHA/American College of Cardiology guideline on the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Data were weighted to be nationally representative and were analyzed from December 27, 2023, to January 31, 2024.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The 10-year ASCVD risk and eligibility for primary prevention statin therapy based on PREVENT and PCE calculations.

Results

In the weighted sample of 3785 US adults (mean [SD] age, 55.7 [9.7] years; 52.5% women) without known ASCVD, 20.7% reported current statin use. The mean estimated 10-year ASCVD risk was 8.0% (95% CI, 7.6%-8.4%) using the PCEs and 4.3% (95% CI, 4.1%-4.5%) using the PREVENT equations. Across all age, sex, and racial subgroups, compared with the PCEs, the mean estimated 10-year ASCVD risk was lower using the PREVENT equations, with the largest difference for Black adults (10.9% [95% CI, 10.1%-11.7%] vs 5.1% [95% CI 4.7%-5.4%]) and individuals aged 70 to 75 years (22.8% [95% CI, 21.6%-24.1%] vs 10.2% [95% CI, 9.6%-10.8%]). The use of the PREVENT equations instead of the PCEs could reduce the number of adults meeting criteria for primary prevention statin therapy from 45.4 million (95% CI, 40.3 million-50.4 million) to 28.3 million (95% CI, 25.2 million-31.4 million). In other words, 17.3 million (95% CI, 14.8 million-19.7 million) adults recommended statins based on the PCEs would no longer be recommended statins based on PREVENT equations, including 4.1 million (95% CI, 2.8 million-5.5 million) adults currently taking statins. Based on the PREVENT equations, 44.1% (95% CI, 38.6%-49.5%) of adults eligible for primary prevention statin therapy reported currently taking statins, equating to 15.8 million (95% CI, 13.4 million-18.2 million) individuals eligible for primary prevention statins who reported not taking statins.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cross-sectional study found that use of the PREVENT equations was associated with fewer US adults being eligible for primary prevention statin therapy; however, the majority of adults eligible for receiving such therapy based on PREVENT equations did not report statin use.

What Constitutes Adequate Control of High Blood Pressure? Current Considerations

An estimated 45% of adult Americans currently have high blood pressure (HBP). Effective blood pressure (BP) control is essential for preventing major adverse events from cardiovascular and other vascular-related diseases, such as chronic kidney disease, stroke and dementia. A large and growing number of medical professional societies, health care organizations, and governmental agencies have now endorsed a clinical practice guideline-based target for adequate control of HBP to a systolic BP of less than 130 mm Hg. However, adequate BP control to this goal has been recently estimated to be as low as 30%. The first and most important steps to guide effective BP control include accurate, standardized BP measurement and formal assessment of overall atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. In addition to appropriate pharmacologic treatment, optimal BP management must also include multifaceted guideline-directed lifestyle modifications. High-quality evidence now supports effective uniform HBP control that is consistently achievable for most of people from diverse backgrounds. This can be accomplished through identification and prioritization of social determinants of health enabled by shared decision making that is delivered via team-based care. Such integrated approaches can have a substantial impact for simultaneously reducing several major modifiable atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors. Hence, moving the "Big Needle" of improved overall cardiovascular, kidney, and brain health of the US population must no longer be solely relegated to primary care and will require a major and coordinated reprioritization of capital and evidence-based human resource allocations by all health care stakeholder organizations.

Western diets and chronic diseases

'Westernization', which incorporates industrial, cultural and dietary trends, has paralleled the rise of noncommunicable diseases across the globe. Today, the Western-style diet emerges as a key stimulus for gut microbial vulnerability, chronic inflammation and chronic diseases, affecting mainly the cardiovascular system, systemic metabolism and the gut. Here we review the diet of modern times and evaluate the threat it poses for human health by summarizing recent epidemiological, translational and clinical studies. We discuss the links between diet and disease in the context of obesity and type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, gut and liver diseases and solid malignancies. We collectively interpret the evidence and its limitations and discuss future challenges and strategies to overcome these. We argue that healthcare professionals and societies must react today to the detrimental effects of the Western diet to bring about sustainable change and improved outcomes in the future.

Dietary habits and self-reported health outcomes in a cross-sectional survey of health-conscious adults eating a plant-based diet

BACKGROUND

Given the growing popularity of plant-based diets, this study investigated the dietary habits and self-reported health outcomes of health-conscious adults consuming plant-based diets.

METHODS

A cross-sectional online survey (n = 315) was distributed to members of Plant-Based Health Professionals UK, a community interest company. Dietary intake was assessed through a food frequency questionnaire. Data were summarised descriptively. Dietary habits among respondents following a whole food plant-based (WFPB) and vegan diet were compared using hypothesis tests.

RESULTS

Respondents reported following a WFPB (61%), vegan (28%) and semi plant-based (11%) diet. Median time on current dietary pattern was 5 years. Daily or more frequent consumption was reported for the following foods: fruits 77%, berries 51%, green vegetables 48%, cruciferous vegetables 45%, other vegetables 64%, beans/legumes 41%, whole grains 62%, nuts and all seeds 63%. Consumption of ultra-processed foods and plant-based meat alternatives was low. About 93% of those on a WFPB or vegan diet supplemented with vitamin B12 and 61% with vitamin D. The median body mass index was 22.4 kg/m2. Fifty per cent of participants reported weight loss after adopting a plant-based diet, with a median loss of 6.4 kg. Thirty-five per cent reported reversing or improving an underlying health condition, and 15% were able to stop or reduce prescribed medication use as a result of dietary changes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that a well-planned plant-based diet is achievable and sustainable in a community setting and can be associated with health benefits. How to best encourage such sustainable diets among the broad population requires further research.

Changes in Healthcare Spending Attributable to High Deductible Health Plan Offer Among Enrollees with Comorbid Substance Use Disorder and Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

The rise in prevalence of high deductible health plans (HDHPs) in the United States may raise concerns for high-need, high-utilization populations such as those with comorbid chronic conditions. In this study, we examine changes in total and out-of-pocket (OOP) spending attributable to HDHPs for enrollees with comorbid substance use disorder (SUD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

We used de-identified administrative claims data from 2007 to 2017. SUD and CVD were defined using algorithms of ICD 9 and 10 codes and HEDIS guidelines. The main outcome measures of interest were spending measure for all non-SUD/CVD-related services, SUD-specific services, and CVD-specific services, for all services and medications specifically. We assessed both total and OOP spending. We used an intent-to-treat two-part model approach to model spending and computed the marginal effect of HDHP offer as both the dollar change and percent change in spending attributable to HDHP offer.

RESULTS

Our sample included 33,684 enrollee-years and was predominantly white and male with a mean age of 53 years. The sample had high demonstrated substantial healthcare utilization with 94% using any non-SUD/CVD services, and 84% and 78% using SUD and CVD services, respectively. HDHP offer was associated with a 17.0% (95% CI = [0.07, 0.27] increase in OOP spending for all non-SUD/CVD services, a 21.1% (95% CI = [0.11, 0.31]) increase in OOP spending for all SUD-specific services, and a 13.1% (95% CI = [0.04, 0.23]) increase in OOP spending for all CVD-specific services. HDHP offer was also associated with a significant increase in OOP spending on non-SUD/CVD-specific medications and SUD-specific medications, but not CVD-specific medications.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that while HDHPs do not change overall levels of annual spending among enrollees with comorbid CVD and SUD, they may increase the financial burden of healthcare services by raising OOP costs, which could negatively impact this high-need and high-utilization population.

Clinical impact of cardiovascular calcifications on stroke incidence in primary prevention: analysis in NADESICO study

The utility of assessment of cardiovascular calcifications for predicting stroke incidence remains unclear. This study assessed the relationship between cardiovascular calcifications including coronary artery calcification (CAC), aortic valve (AVC), and aortic root (ARC) assessed by coronary computed tomography (CT) and stroke incidence in patients with suspected CAD. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, 1187 patients suspected of CAD who underwent coronary CT were enrolled. Cardiovascular events including stroke were documented. Hazard ratio (HR) and confidence interval (CI) were assessed by Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for the Framingham risk score. C statistics for stroke incidence were also examined by models including cardiovascular calcifications. A total of 980 patients (mean age, 65 ± 7 years; females, 45.8%) were assessed by the CAC, AVC, and ARC Agatston scores. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years, 19 patients developed stroke. Cox proportional hazard model showed severe CAC (Agatston score ≥ 90th percentile [580.0 value]) and presence of AVC and ARC were associated with stroke incidence (HR; 10.33 [95% CI; 2.08-51.26], 3.08 [1.19-7.98], and 2.75 [1.03-7.30], respectively). C statistic in the model with CAC and AVC severity for predicting stroke incidence was 0.841 (95% CI; 0.761-0.920), which was superior to the model with CAC alone (0.762 [95% CI; 0.665-0.859], P < 0.01). CAC, AVC, and ARC were associated with stroke incidence in patients suspected of CAD. Assessment of both CAC and AVC may be useful for prediction of stroke incidence.

Serum levels of soluble receptor activator for nuclear factor kB ligand play a crucial role in the association of osteoprotegerin with coronary artery disease

Osteoprotegerin (OPG) is a soluble decoy receptor for receptor activator of nuclear factor kB ligand (RANKL), and is implicated in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. The aim of the present study was to examine the hypothesis that serum OPG concentrations are increased in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) at different serum levels of soluble RANKL (sRANKL). The study used a case-control design in which consecutively hospitalized individuals were recruited. Fasting blood samples were taken upon admission for serum testing. Participants with previously diagnosed CAD that was asymptomatic or had controlled symptoms constituted the stable CAD group, whereas patients with negative coronary computed tomography angiography results constituted the control non-CAD group. Exclusion criteria included recent acute coronary syndrome, severe heart failure, CAD-complicating autoimmune, blood or thyroid diseases, cancer, elevated temperature with or without infection, severe liver or kidney dysfunction, abnormal calcium metabolism, recent surgery and trauma history. A total of 118 individuals were included in the study. Smoothed plots generated using the recursive method and multivariate models showed that the incidence of stable CAD increased with serum OPG level up to the turning point of 18 pg/ml. This trend was observed at both high [odds ratio (OR), 1.61; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04-2.50; P=0.032) and low sRANKL concentrations (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.06-2.17; P=0.022) after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. In conclusion, serum OPG levels ≤18 pg/ml are positively associated with stable CAD, regardless of sRANKL levels. In addition, at the same serum OPG level, higher sRANKL levels are associated with a greater incidence of stable CAD compared with lower sRANKL levels. This study identified the relationship between OPG, sRANKL, and stable CAD, and established the reference range for future clinical use.

Association between serum estradiol and cardiovascular health among transgender adults using gender-affirming estrogen therapy

Gender-affirming estrogen therapy (GAET) is commonly used for feminization in transgender and nonbinary (TNB) individuals, yet the optimal rate of change (ROC) in estradiol levels for cardiovascular health is unclear. We examined the association between serum estradiol levels and cardiovascular-related mortality, adverse events, and risk factors in TNB adults using GAET. Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science were systematically searched (inception-April 2023) for original articles reporting serum estradiol levels and cardiovascular-related mortality, adverse events, and risk factors in TNB adults using GAET. Data extraction was completed in duplicate following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Stratified random effect meta-analyses using serum estradiol ROC (serum estradiolbaseline - serum estradiolfollow-up/study duration) was used to assess longitudinal studies (low, 0 < ROC ≤ 1 pg/mL/mo; moderate, 1 < ROC ≤ 3 pg/mL/mo; high, ROC ≥ 3 pg/mL/mo). Thirty-five studies (13 cross-sectional, 19 cohort, and 3 trials) were included. Two studies collectively reported 50 cardiovascular-related deaths, and four collectively reported 23 adverse cardiovascular events. Nineteen studies reporting cardiovascular risk factors were meta-analyzed by ROC stratum (low = 5; moderate = 6; high = 8), demonstrating an association between moderate [0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22, 0.59 kg/m2, I2 = 28.2%] and high (0.46, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.78 kg/m2; I2 = 0.0%) serum estradiol ROC and increased body mass index. High (-6.67, 95% CI: -10.65, -2.68 mg/dL; I2 = 0.0%) serum estradiol ROC was associated with decreased low-density lipoproteins. Low (-7.05, 95% CI: -10.40, -3.70 mmHg; I2 = 0.0%) and moderate (-3.69, 95% CI: -4.93, -2.45 mmHg; I2 = 0.0%) serum estradiol ROCs were associated with decreases in systolic blood pressure. In TNB adults using GAET, serum estradiol ROC may influence cardiovascular risk factors, which may have implications for clinical cardiovascular outcomes.NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this systematic review and meta-analysis of 35 studies involving 7,745 participants, high rates of serum estradiol change were associated with small increases in body mass index. Moderate to high rates of change were associated with decreases in low-density lipoprotein. Low rates of change were associated with small decreases in systolic blood pressure. Rate of serum estradiol change in adults using gender-affirming estrogen therapy may influence cardiovascular risk factors, though further research is warranted.

Contraceptive counselling and uptake of contraception among women with cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

To address the lack of clarity regarding contraceptive counselling and uptake of contraception among women with cardiovascular disease (CVD), this study aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on contraceptive counselling and the subsequent uptake of contraception among women with CVD. A search across six databases identified 1228 articles, with 11 studies (2580 participants) included. The pooled prevalence of contraceptive counselling was 63%, varying from 36 to 94% in individual studies. Inconsistent delivery and documentation of counselling were noted, along with a lack of knowledge about pregnancy complications and misconceptions regarding CVD severity. For contraceptive uptake (n = 5), the pooled prevalence was 64% (95% confidence interval, 45 to 82%). Women with CVD were also found to use less effective methods as well as methods not recommended for their condition (e.g., combined hormonal methods among participants with absolute or relative contraindications). Improving contraceptive counselling and choices for women with CVD can not only enhance knowledge and decision-making for women with CVD in line with their reproductive goals and preferences but reduce high-risk unintended pregnancies and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

One-size-fits-all versus risk-category-based screening interval strategies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Chinese adults: a prospective cohort study

Background

In non-high-risk individuals, risk-category-based atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) screening strategies may be more cost-effective than one-size-fits-all approaches. However, current decisions are constrained by a lack of research evidence. We aimed to explore appropriate risk-category-based screening interval strategies for non-high-risk individuals in ASCVD primary prevention in the Chinese population.

Methods

We used data from 28,624 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who had completed at least two field surveys. The risk assessment tools were the 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed based on the CKB cohort. We constructed multistate Markov models to model disease progression and estimate transition probabilities between different risk categories. The total person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk state over a 10-year period were calculated for each screening interval protocol. We also estimated the number of ASCVD events prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs saved when compared to the 3-yearly screening protocol.

Findings

When compared to the uniform 3-yearly protocol, most risk-category-based screening interval protocols would identify more high-risk individuals timely, thus preventing more ASCVD events and gaining QALYs. A few of them would reduce total health-care costs. The protocol, which used 6-year, 3-year, and 2-year screening intervals for low-risk, intermediate-low-risk, and intermediate-high risk individuals, was optimal, and would reduce the person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk category by 17.9% (95% CI: 13.1%-21.9%), thus preventing an estimated 113 thousand (95% CI: 83-138) hard ASCVD events for Chinese adults aged 30-79 over a 10-year period. When using a lower cost of statin therapy, more screening protocols would gain QALYs while saving costs.

Interpretation

For the primary prevention of ASCVD, risk-category-based screening protocols outperformed the one-size-fits-all approach in the Chinese population.

Funding

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82388102, 82192900) and grants (2023YFC2509400) from the National Key R&D Program of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303, 81941018), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01).

Abdominal Obesity-Metabolic Syndrome 3 Misclassified as Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

Age is no longer the most important differentiating feature between type 1 and type 2 diabetes, as obesity and metabolic syndrome are on the rise in the pediatric population. Here we present a case of a 30-year-old male individual initially diagnosed with uncontrolled type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) since the age of 15, and treatment with high insulin doses has been unsuccessful. He was later identified as having abdominal obesity-metabolic syndrome 3 (AOMS3) based on strong family history and the presence of insulin resistance features. AOMS3 is characterized by early-onset coronary artery disease, central obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Early detection of this condition is crucial to implement timely interventions and preventing the onset of complications.

Evaluating Ischemic Heart Disease in Women: Focus on Angina With Nonobstructive Coronary Arteries (ANOCA)

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is common in women, and cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. While obstructive coronary artery disease is the most common form of IHD, millions of women suffer from angina with nonobstructive coronary arteries (ANOCA), an umbrella term encompassing multiple nonatherosclerotic disorders of the coronary tree. The underlying pathology leading to ischemia in these syndromes may be challenging to diagnose, leaving many women without a diagnosis despite persistent symptoms that impact quality of life and adversely affect long-term cardiovascular prognosis. In the last decade, there have been significant advances in the recognition and diagnostic evaluation of ANOCA. Despite these advances, the standard approach to evaluating suspected IHD in women continues to focus predominantly on the assessment of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease, leading to missed opportunities to accurately diagnose and treat underlying coronary vasomotor disorders. The goal of this review is to describe advances in diagnostic testing that can be used to evaluate angina in women and present a pragmatic diagnostic algorithm to guide evaluation of ANOCA in symptomatic patients. The proposed approach for the assessment of ANOCA is consistent with prior expert consensus documents and guidelines but is predicated on the medical interview and pretest probability of disease to inform a personalized diagnostic strategy.

The Cardiovascular Benefits of Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists as Novel Diabetes Drugs Are Mediated via the Suppression of miR-203a-3p and miR-429 Expression

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is associated with a high fatality rate and a heavy global health care burden. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) exerts positive cardiovascular effects, although the molecular mechanisms are unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to verify whether the cardioprotective effects of GLP-1 are mediated through the regulation of micro-RNA (miRNA) expression. Follow-up assessments were conducted for 116 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) alone (controls) and 123 patients with both T2DM and CAD. After matching, each group comprised 63 patients, and age, body mass index, and serum levels of total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), triglycerides (TG), and hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) were compared. Subsequently, the expression profiles of four circulating miRNAs (miR-203a-3p, miR-429, miR-205-5p, and miR-203b-5p) were assessed via quantitative reverse transcription real-time polymerase chain reaction in the 63 patients with diabetes and CAD between 6 months (baseline) and 12 months after the initiation of GLP-1 receptor (GLP-1R) therapy. As expected, the metabolic factors were significantly improved after 6 months of treatment with GLP-1R compared with pre-treatment values, and the expression levels of two of the miRNAs (miR-203a-3p and miR-429) decreased from baseline levels in those with diabetes and CAD. The results suggest that the cardiovascular benefits induced by GLP-1R are mediated via suppressed expression of two miRNAs: miR-203a-3p and miR-429.

Projected Changes in Statin and Antihypertensive Therapy Eligibility With the AHA PREVENT Cardiovascular Risk Equations

Importance

Since 2013, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) have recommended the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) for estimating the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). An AHA scientific advisory group recently developed the Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations, which incorporated kidney measures, removed race as an input, and improved calibration in contemporary populations. PREVENT is known to produce ASCVD risk predictions that are lower than those produced by the PCEs, but the potential clinical implications have not been quantified.

Objective

To estimate the number of US adults who would experience changes in risk categorization, treatment eligibility, or clinical outcomes when applying PREVENT equations to existing ACC and AHA guidelines.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Nationally representative cross-sectional sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of 2011 to March 2020, which had response rates ranging from 47% to 70%.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Differences in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk, ACC and AHA risk categorization, eligibility for statin or antihypertensive therapy, and projected occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke.

Results

In a nationally representative sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years (median age, 53 years; 51.3% women), it was estimated that using PREVENT equations would reclassify approximately half of US adults to lower ACC and AHA risk categories (53.0% [95% CI, 51.2%-54.8%]) and very few US adults to higher risk categories (0.41% [95% CI, 0.25%-0.62%]). The number of US adults receiving or recommended for preventive treatment would decrease by an estimated 14.3 million (95% CI, 12.6 million-15.9 million) for statin therapy and 2.62 million (95% CI, 2.02 million-3.21 million) for antihypertensive therapy. The study estimated that, over 10 years, these decreases in treatment eligibility could result in 107 000 additional occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke. Eligibility changes would affect twice as many men as women and a greater proportion of Black adults than White adults.

Conclusion and Relevance

By assigning lower ASCVD risk predictions, application of the PREVENT equations to existing treatment thresholds could reduce eligibility for statin and antihypertensive therapy among 15.8 million US adults.

Short- and long-term impact of aspirin cessation in older adults: a target trial emulation

BACKGROUND

The net benefit of aspirin cessation in older adults remains uncertain. This study aimed to use observational data to emulate a randomized trial of aspirin cessation versus continuation in older adults without cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

Post hoc analysis using a target trial emulation framework applied to the immediate post-trial period (2017-2021) of a study of low-dose aspirin initiation in adults aged ≥ 70 years (ASPREE; NCT01038583). Participants from Australia and the USA were included if they were free of CVD at the start of the post-trial intervention period (time zero, T0) and had been taking open-label or randomized aspirin immediately before T0. The two groups in the target trial were as follows: aspirin cessation (participants who were taking randomized aspirin immediately before T0; assumed to have stopped at T0 as instructed) versus aspirin continuation (participants on open-label aspirin at T0 regardless of their randomized treatment; assumed to have continued at T0). The outcomes after T0 were incident CVD, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), all-cause mortality, and major bleeding during 3, 6, and 12 months (short-term) and 48 months (long-term) follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) comparing aspirin cessation to continuation were estimated from propensity-score (PS) adjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression models.

RESULTS

We included 6103 CVD-free participants (cessation: 5427, continuation: 676). Over both short- and long-term follow-up, aspirin cessation versus continuation was not associated with elevated risk of CVD, MACE, and all-cause mortality (HRs, at 3 and 48 months respectively, were 1.23 and 0.73 for CVD, 1.11 and 0.84 for MACE, and 0.23 and 0.79 for all-cause mortality, p > 0.05), but cessation had a reduced risk of incident major bleeding events (HRs at 3 and 48 months, 0.16 and 0.63, p < 0.05). Similar findings were seen for all outcomes at 6 and 12 months, except for a lowered risk of all-cause mortality in the cessation group at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that deprescribing prophylactic aspirin might be safe in healthy older adults with no known CVD.

Current and Emerging Approaches for Primary Prevention of Coronary Artery Disease Using Cardiac Computed Tomography

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To summarize the current use of cardiac computed tomography (CT) technologies as well as their pertinent evidence in regards to prevention of coronary artery disease (CAD).

RECENT FINDINGS

Cardiac CTA has now become a main non-invasive method for the evaluation of symptomatic CAD. In addition to coronary calcium score, other CT technologies such as atherosclerotic plaque analysis, fractional flow reserve estimation by CT, pericoronary fat attenuation, and endothelial wall shear stress have emerged. Whether the use of CT modalities can enhance risk prediction and prevention in CAD has not been fully answered. We discuss the evidence for coronary artery calcium scoring and coronary CT angiography in primary prevention and the current barriers to their use. We attempt to delineate what can be done to expand use and what studies are needed to broaden adoption in the future. We also examine the potential roles of emerging CT technologies. Finally, we describe potential clinical approaches to prevention that would incorporate cardiac CT technologies.

Participant-derived cell line transcriptomic analyses and mouse studies reveal a role for ZNF335 in plasma cholesterol statin response

BACKGROUND

Statins lower circulating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC) levels and reduce cardiovascular disease risk. Though highly efficacious in general, there is considerable inter-individual variation in statin efficacy that remains largely unexplained.

METHODS

To identify novel genes that may modulate statin-induced LDLC lowering, we used RNA-sequencing data from 426 control- and 2 µM simvastatin-treated lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) derived from European and African American ancestry participants of the Cholesterol and Pharmacogenetics (CAP) 40 mg/day 6-week simvastatin clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00451828). We correlated statin-induced changes in LCL gene expression with plasma LDLC statin response in the corresponding CAP participants. For the most correlated gene identified (ZNF335), we followed up in vivo by comparing plasma cholesterol levels, lipoprotein profiles, and lipid statin response between wild-type mice and carriers of a hypomorphic (partial loss of function) missense mutation in Zfp335 (the mouse homolog of ZNF335).

RESULTS

The statin-induced expression changes of 147 human LCL genes were significantly correlated to the plasma LDLC statin responses of the corresponding CAP participants in vivo (FDR = 5%). The two genes with the strongest correlations were zinc finger protein 335 (ZNF335 aka NIF-1, rho = 0.237, FDR-adj p = 0.0085) and CCR4-NOT transcription complex subunit 3 (CNOT3, rho = 0.233, FDR-adj p = 0.0085). Chow-fed mice carrying a hypomorphic missense (R1092W; aka bloto) mutation in Zfp335 had significantly lower non-HDL cholesterol levels than wild-type C57BL/6J mice in a sex combined model (p = 0.04). Furthermore, male (but not female) mice carrying the Zfp335R1092W allele had significantly lower total and HDL cholesterol levels than wild-type mice. In a separate experiment, wild-type mice fed a control diet for 4 weeks and a matched simvastatin diet for an additional 4 weeks had significant statin-induced reductions in non-HDLC (-43 ± 18% and -23 ± 19% for males and females, respectively). Wild-type male (but not female) mice experienced significant reductions in plasma LDL particle concentrations, while male mice carrying Zfp335R1092W allele(s) exhibited a significantly blunted LDL statin response.

CONCLUSIONS

Our in vitro and in vivo studies identified ZNF335 as a novel modulator of plasma cholesterol levels and statin response, suggesting that variation in ZNF335 activity could contribute to inter-individual differences in statin clinical efficacy.

Efficacy of a Mobile Health App (eMOTIVA) Regarding Compliance With Cardiac Rehabilitation Guidelines in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease: Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Cardiac rehabilitation is fundamental among patients recovering from a coronary event, and mHealth technology may constitute a useful tool that provides guidelines based on scientific evidence in an entertaining, attractive, and user-friendly format.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the efficacy of an mHealth intervention involving the eMOTIVA app and that of usual care regarding compliance with cardiac rehabilitation guidelines in terms of lifestyle, cardiovascular risk factors, and satisfaction among patients with acute coronary syndrome.

METHODS

A randomized controlled clinical trial with a parallel group design was conducted. It included 300 patients (mHealth group, 150; control group, 150) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention for acute coronary syndrome. Both groups underwent evaluations initially (during hospitalization) and after 3 and 6 months (face-to-face consultations). The eMOTIVA app incorporates a virtual classroom providing audio and video information about a healthy lifestyle, a section for self-recording cardiovascular risk factors, and a section for feedback messages and gamification. The primary outcome variables were (1) adherence to the Mediterranean diet and the frequency of consumption of food; (2) physical activity level, sedentary time, and exercise capacity; (3) smoking cessation and nicotine dependence; (4) level of knowledge about cardiovascular risk factors; and (5) app satisfaction and usability.

RESULTS

The study analyzed 287 patients (mHealth group, 145; control group, 142). Most participants were male (207/300, 69.0%), and the mean age was 62.53 (SD 8.65) years. Significant improvements were observed in the mHealth group compared with the control group at 6 months in terms of (1) adherence to the Mediterranean diet (mean 11.92, SD 1.70 vs 8.92, SD 2.66 points; P<.001) and frequency of eating foods (red meat [≤1/week]: 141/143, 97.9% vs 96/141, 68.1%; industrial pastries [<2/week]: 129/143, 89.6% vs 80/141, 56.8%; oily fish [≥2/week]: 124/143, 86.1% vs 64/141, 41.4%; vegetables [≥2/day]: 130/143, 90.3% vs 78/141, 55.3%; fruit [≥2/day]: 128/143, 88.9% vs 85/141, 60.2%; all P<.001); (2) physical activity (mean 2112.66, SD 1196.67 vs 1372.60, SD 944.62 metabolic equivalents/week; P<.001) and sedentary time (mean 8.38, SD 1.88 vs 9.59, SD 2.09 hours; P<.001); (3) exercise capacity (distance: mean 473.49, SD 102.28 vs 447.25, SD 93.68 meters; P=.04); and (4) level of knowledge (mean 117.85, SD 3.83 vs 111.00, SD 7.11 points; P<.001). App satisfaction was high (mean 42.53, SD 6.38 points), and its usability was excellent (mean 95.60, SD 4.03 points).

CONCLUSIONS

With the eMOTIVA app, favorable results were obtained in the intervention group in terms of adherence to the Mediterranean diet, frequency of eating certain foods, physical activity, sedentary time, exercise capacity, knowledge level, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and blood sugar level. Furthermore, participants reported high app satisfaction and rated its usability as excellent. Thus, this innovative tool is very promising.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05247606; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05247606.

The role of coffee and potential mediators in subclinical atherosclerosis: insights from Mendelian randomization study

Background and aims

Coffee contains many bioactive compounds, and its inconsistent association with subclinical atherosclerosis has been reported in observational studies. In this Mendelian randomization study, we investigated whether genetically predicted coffee consumption is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, as well as the role of potential mediators.

Methods

We first conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis to examine the causal effect of coffee and its subtypes on subclinical atherosclerosis inferred from coronary artery calcification (CAC). Next, the significant results were validated using another independent dataset. Two-step Mendelian randomization analyses were utilized to evaluate the causal pathway from coffee to subclinical atherosclerosis through potential mediators, including blood pressure, blood lipids, body mass index, and glycated hemoglobin. Mendelian randomization analyses were performed using the multiplicative random effects inverse-variance weighted method as the main approach, followed by a series of complementary methods and sensitivity analyses.

Results

Coffee, filtered coffee, and instant coffee were associated with the risk of CAC (β = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.12 to 1.47, p = 0.022; β = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.17 to 1.15, p = 0.008; β = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.20 to 1.13, p = 0.005; respectively). While no significant causal relationship was found between decaffeinated coffee and CAC (β = -1.32, 95% CI: -2.67 to 0.04, p = 0.056). The association between coffee and CAC was validated in the replication analysis (β = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.48, p = 0.009). Body mass index mediated 39.98% of the effect of coffee on CAC (95% CI: 9.78 to 70.19%, p = 0.009), and 5.79% of the effect of instant coffee on CAC (95% CI: 0.54 to 11.04%, p = 0.030).

Conclusion

Our study suggests that coffee other than decaffeinated coffee increases the risk of subclinical atherosclerosis inferred from CAC. Body mass index mediated 39.98 and 5.79% of the causal effects of coffee and instant coffee on CAC, respectively. Coffee should be consumed with caution, especially in individuals with established cardiovascular risk factors, and decaffeinated coffee appears to be a safer choice.

Associations of fish oil with cardiovascular disease events: results from the Taiwan longitudinal study in aging

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of fish oil in preventing cardiovascular events is still debating. Some studies indicate a correlation between the use of fish oil supplements and reduced mortality or decreased incidence of stroke. However, other studies show no significant association between fish oil intake and stroke prevention, indicating an ongoing debate. This study aimed at exploring which subjects may benefit more from fish oil supplementation.

METHODS

This study utilized the data obtained through face-to-face interview from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study in Aging (TLSA). A total of 3,652 participants were included from the 2003 baseline data, after excluding patients with pre-existing ischemic heart disease or stroke. Participants were divided into two groups based on whether taking fish oil supplement or not. Participants were followed until 2015, estimating and comparing the all-cause mortality and cumulative incidence rate of stroke between both groups.

RESULTS

The results of the 12-year longitudinal study showed that the cumulative incidence rate of stroke in the fish oil supplementation group was 5.7%, compared to 7.7% in the non-supplemented group (P < 0.05). Additionally, the crude hazard ratio for stroke was significantly lower in the fish oil supplementation group (HR = 0.686;95% CI 0.476-0.987). However, after adjusting potential confounders, the adjusted risk of stroke was lower only for the diabetic patients supplemented with fish oil (aHR = 0.123; 95% CI 0.016-0.930) compared to non-diabetic patients (aHR = 0.917; 95% CI 0.616-1.364).

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that there is an association between fish oil supplementation and a lower cumulative incidence rate of subsequent stroke among diabetic patients.

Home blood pressure-lowering effect of a non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor blocker, esaxerenone, versus trichlormethiazide for uncontrolled hypertension: the EXCITE-HT randomized controlled study

The EXCITE-HT study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of esaxerenone versus thiazide diuretics (trichlormethiazide) as second-line treatment for Japanese patients with uncontrolled essential hypertension. This was a 12-week, multicenter, randomized, open-label, parallel-group study. The non-inferiority of esaxerenone to trichlormethiazide was confirmed if the upper limit of the two-sided 95% confidence interval (CI) for the difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP)/diastolic blood pressure (DBP) change between groups was below 3.9/2.1 mmHg. A total of 295 and 290 patients were included in the esaxerenone and trichlormethiazide groups, respectively. The non-inferiority of esaxerenone to trichlormethiazide was demonstrated: least squares mean change differences in morning home SBP/DBP at end of treatment (EOT) were -2.2 (95% CI, -3.6, -0.8) mmHg for SBP/-0.6 (-1.4, 0.2) mmHg for DBP. Morning home, bedtime home, and office BP significantly decreased (all p < 0.001) from baseline to EOT in both groups. The urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level decreased from baseline to Week 12 in both groups, with no notable intergroup difference. Serum potassium elevations occurred more frequently with esaxerenone, while serum potassium reductions occurred more with trichlormethiazide. Uric acid elevations were observed in both groups, but more frequently with trichlormethiazide than esaxerenone. No cases of gout occurred in this study. Reductions in estimated glomerular filtration rate were similarly observed in both groups. EXCITE-HT is the first randomized controlled study to demonstrate evidence that esaxerenone is non-inferior to trichlormethiazide as second-line treatment for Japanese patients with uncontrolled essential hypertension, with no new safety concerns. The EXCITE-HT study demonstrated the non-inferiority of esaxerenone to trichlormethiazide in its morning home blood pressure lowering effect and safety profile in Japanese patients with uncontrolled essential hypertension who were previously treated with an angiotensin II receptor blocker or calcium channel blocker.

Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050-Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease and stroke are common and costly, and their prevalence is rising. Forecasts on the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial.

METHODS

Using the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated trends in prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics.

RESULTS

We estimate that among adults, prevalence of hypertension will increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Diabetes (16.3% to 26.8%) and obesity (43.1% to 60.6%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (45.8% to 24.0%). The prevalences of poor diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are estimated to improve over time, whereas inadequate sleep will worsen. Prevalences of coronary disease (7.8% to 9.2%), heart failure (2.7% to 3.8%), stroke (3.9% to 6.4%), atrial fibrillation (1.7% to 2.4%), and total cardiovascular disease (11.3% to 15.0%) will rise. Clinical CVD will affect 45 million adults, and CVD including hypertension will affect more than 184 million adults by 2050 (>61%). Similar trends are projected in children. Most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years. Clinical and public health interventions are needed to effectively manage, stem, and even reverse these adverse trends.

Development a nomogram prognostic model for survival in heart failure patients based on the HF-ACTION data

BACKGROUND

The risk assessment for survival in heart failure (HF) remains one of the key focuses of research. This study aims to develop a simple and feasible nomogram model for survival in HF based on the Heart Failure-A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing (HF-ACTION) to support clinical decision-making.

METHODS

The HF patients were extracted from the HF-ACTION database and randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify and integrate significant prognostic factors to form a nomogram, which was displayed in the form of a static nomogram. Bootstrap resampling (resampling = 1000) and cross-validation was used to internally validate the model. The prognostic performance of the model was measured by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

There were 1394 patients with HF in the overall analysis. Seven prognostic factors, which included age, body mass index (BMI), sex, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), exercise duration, peak exercise oxygen consumption (peak VO2), and loop diuretic, were identified and applied to the nomogram construction based on the training cohort. The C-index of this model in the training cohort was 0.715 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.700, 0.766) and 0.662 (95% CI: 0.646, 0.752) in the validation cohort. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of 365- and 730-day survival is (0.731, 0.734) and (0.640, 0.693) respectively in the training cohort and validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good consistency between nomogram-predicted survival and actual observed survival. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed net benefit is higher than the reference line in a narrow range of cutoff probabilities and the result of cross-validation indicates that the model performance is relatively robust.

CONCLUSIONS

This study created a nomogram prognostic model for survival in HF based on a large American population, which can provide additional decision information for the risk prediction of HF.

Statin prescriptions and progression of advanced fibrosis risk in primary care patients with MASLD

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the association of statins with progression to a high risk for advanced fibrosis in primary care patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study of electronic health record data included patients with MASLD and an initial low or indeterminate risk for advanced fibrosis, determined by Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) score (<2.67). Patients were followed from the index FIB-4 until the primary outcome of a high-risk FIB-4 (≥2.67) or the end of the study period. Prescription for a statin during follow-up was the primary exposure. We developed Cox regression models for the time to a high-risk FIB-4 score with statin therapy as the primary covariate and adjusting for baseline fibrosis risk, demographic and comorbidity variables.

RESULTS

The cohort of 1238 patients with MASLD was followed for a mean of 3.3 years, with 47% of patients receiving a prescription for a statin, and 18% of patients progressing to a high-risk FIB-4. In the adjusted Cox model with statin prescription as the primary exposure, statins were associated with a lower risk (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.80) of progressing to a FIB-4≥2.67. In the adjusted Cox models with statin prescription intensity as the exposure, moderate (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.84) and high intensity (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.42 to 0.88) statins were associated with a lower risk of progressing to a high-risk FIB-4.

CONCLUSION

Statin prescriptions, and specifically moderate and high intensity statin prescriptions, demonstrate a protective association with fibrosis risk progression in primary care patients with MASLD.