Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City

BACKGROUND

Cancer is a major cause of mortality. Timely information about cancer mortality trends is essential for prioritizing health programs.

AIMS

This study aims to use a Joint point regression model to predict the mortality rates of the top 10 common cancers in Babol City.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study considered all registered cancer-related deaths from 2013 to 2021 in the Babol University of Medical Sciences' death registration and classification system. Crude and age-standardized rates and cancer trends were calculated and predicted for the next 5 years, overall and by type of cancer and gender.

RESULTS

Over these 9years, 2417 deaths from the 10 common cancers were recorded. We observed an increase in mortality rates with a slope of 12.05% from 2013 to 2016, and a gentler slope of 3.2% from 2016 to 2021. Cancer mortality rates are predicted to increase by 6.43% in the next 5 years without intervention. Detailed analysis indicates that breast cancer will have the highest mortality rate during 2022-2026, rising by 13.6% annually. Predictions based on gender indicate that, breast cancer mortality will increase by 13.6% annually for women. Also, stomach cancer mortality rates will increase by 0.15% in men annually.

CONCLUSION

Cancer mortality in Babol remains a significant public health issue with an increasing trend. Nevertheless, these rising mortality rates require urgent interventions, including cancer prevention programs, increased access to medical services, and improved quality of life.

Development of an asthma health-care burden score as a measure of severity and predictor of remission in SARP III and U-BIOPRED: results from two major longitudinal asthma cohorts

BACKGROUND

Current asthma guidelines, including those of the European Respiratory Society (ERS) and American Thoracic Society (ATS), suboptimally predict asthma remission, disease severity, and health-care utilisation. We aimed to establish a novel approach to assess asthma severity based on asthma health-care burden data.

METHODS

We analysed prospectively collected data from the Severe Asthma Research Program III (SARP III; USA) and the European Unbiased Biomarkers for the Prediction of Respiratory Disease Outcomes (U-BIOPRED; 11 European countries) to calculate a composite burden score based on asthma exacerbations and health-care utilisation, which was modified to include the use of short-acting beta agonists (SABAs) to reflect asthma symptom burden.

FINDINGS

In SARP III, 528 adult participants with asthma were followed up for a mean of 4·4 (SD 1·6) years, and 312 (59%) had severe asthma according to the ERS-ATS definition. Among the 205 participants with asthma who used rescue SABAs daily, 90 used these two or more times a day. In U-BIOPRED, 509 adult participants with asthma were followed up for 1 year, and 421 (83%) had severe asthma. The burden score was less than 1·29 per patient-year in 106 (34%) of 312 SARP III participants and in 80 (19%) of 421 U-BIOPRED participants with severe asthma. By contrast, the burden score was above the median value in 58 (28%) SARP III and 24 (27%) U-BIOPRED participants with non-severe asthma. In both cohorts, the burden score negatively correlated with lung function, asthma control, and quality of life. A burden score of 0·15 or lower predicted asthma remission with a sensitivity greater than 91% and a specificity of 99%.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings highlight considerable discrepancies between the current definition of asthma severity and our burden score. Although the definition of severe asthma proposed by the ERS-ATS and the and Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) is based on prescribed asthma medications, our personalised health-care burden score includes patient-centred data that reflect disease severity and accurately predicts asthma remission. Subject to prospective validation, the burden score could help to optimise the management of high-risk individuals with asthma.

FUNDING

SARP III: US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; AstraZeneca; Boehringer Ingelheim; Genentech; GlaxoSmithKline; Sanofi Genzyme/Regeneron; and Teva Pharmaceuticals.

U-BIOPRED

Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (EU's Seventh Framework Programme and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations) and eTRIKS project.

Selected Genetic Characteristics of the Vietnamese Minority Living in the Czech Republic

The aim of this study was to analyse the allelic distribution of selected genes in the Czech and Vietnamese populations. We analysed samples from 94 Vietnamese volunteers and 2,859 Czech population-based subjects (2,559 from the Czechs post-MONICA and 300 volunteers from the South region of the Czech Republic). There were significant differences between the two populations for most, but not all, of the SNPs analysed. In particular, the prevalence of risk alleles in the analysed polymorphisms tended to be lower in the Vietnamese community compared to the Czech population, especially within the FTO (rs17817449; associated with obesity risk, P < 0.0001), TCF7L2 (rs7903146; linked to type 2 dia-betes, P < 0.0001) and ADH1B (rs1229984; related to alcohol consumption, P < 0.0001) genes. The genotype within the MCM6/LCT cluster (rs4988235) associated with lactase persistence was not present in the Vietnamese population. Slight genotype differences were detected for one HFE polymorphism (rs1799945 with P = 0.005; but not for rs1800562). Only the genotype frequencies within the MC4R and APOE genes were almost identical in both populations. We conclude that the Vietnamese population may have a lower genetic predisposition to the non-communicable diseases such as obesity or diabetes mellitus.

Integrating expert knowledge with machine learning for AI-based stroke identifications and treatment systems

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide, requiring early detection and timely intervention to improve patient outcomes. However, in resource-limited locations, the lack of specialists often leads to delayed and inaccurate diagnoses. To address this, we propose an AI-driven stroke identification and treatment system that integrates expert knowledge with machine learning, enabling healthcare providers to make informed decisions without direct specialist input. The data for this study were obtained from Debre Berhan Referral Hospital through expert interviews, prescriptions, and from a public dataset in the Kaggle platform. Feature selection was performed using decision trees, Chi-Square tests, Elastic Net coefficients, and correlation analysis. Additionally, we applied to Shapley Additive Explanations to demonstrate the feasibility of feature selection in AI model development. Machine learning models, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine, were evaluated, and Random Forest classifier achieved the highest accuracy of 99.4% using k-fold cross-validation technique. Expert knowledge was encoded in Prolog, while machine learning models were implemented in Python to develop a hybrid expert system. Medical professionals evaluated the system, confirming its effectiveness as a decision-support tool for stroke diagnosis and treatment. This approach demonstrates the potential of AI-driven expert systems to enhance stroke management, particularly in regions with limited access to specialized care.

Disease burden and trends of lung cancer attributable to nickel among Chinese and global population: a cross-sectional study

Background

Nickel is a well-established carcinogen, and China stands as a significant producer of nickel compounds. Nickel-associated lung cancer is increasingly acknowledged as a pressing public health concern. This study presents a comprehensive analysis at temporal, spatial, and population levels utilizing the most recent data from GBD 2019 to estimate the disease burden of nickel-associated lung cancer from 1990 to 2019, and make predictions to 2035.

Methods

We delineated data on nickel-associated lung cancer concerning mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) over a 30-year period based on the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to identify temporal changes and to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) as well as the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for each trend segment. The Nordpred model was employed to elaborate on ASRs trends from 1990 to 2019, along with projections for the subsequent 15 years.

Results

In both China and globally, the mortality rate from nickel-associated lung cancer and the associated DALYs have increased by 145.8, 77.8, 120.2, and 64.6%, respectively. ASRs within Chinese and global populations exhibit a pattern characterized by an initial increase followed by a decrease as age progresses, with males higher than females. The trend for DALY indicates an initial rise followed by a decline, peaking in the year 2027.

Conclusion

The age structure of nickel-associated lung cancer patients shows an aging trend, and the ASDR in the Chinese population indicates a potential upward trend when projecting the disease burden of nickel-associated lung cancer over the next 15 years. We should place greater emphasis on the implementation of preventive strategies and the enhancement of the quality of life for current sufferers.

Population and Co-Occurrence Characteristics of Diagnoses and Comorbidities in Coronary Artery Disease Patients: A Case Study from a Hospital in Guangxi, China

Coronary artery disease (CAD) remains a major global health concern, significantly contributing to morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to investigate the co-occurrence patterns of diagnoses and comorbidities in CAD patients using a network-based approach. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 195 hospitalized CAD patients from a single hospital in Guangxi, China, with data collected on age, sex, and comorbidities. Network analysis, supported by sensitivity analysis, revealed key diagnostic clusters and comorbidity hubs, with hypertension emerging as the central node in the co-occurrence network. Unstable angina and myocardial infarction were identified as central diagnoses, frequently co-occurring with metabolic conditions such as diabetes. The results also highlighted significant age- and sex-specific differences in CAD diagnoses and comorbidities. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the network structure and identified clusters, despite the limitations of sample size and data source. Modularity analysis uncovered distinct clusters, illustrating the complex interplay between cardiovascular and metabolic disorders. These findings provide valuable insights into the relationships between CAD and its comorbidities, emphasizing the importance of integrated, personalized management strategies. Future studies with larger, multi-center datasets and longitudinal designs are needed to validate these results and explore the temporal dynamics of CAD progression.

Qualitative Evaluation of mHealth Implementation for Infectious Disease Care in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Narrative Review

Background

Mobile health (mHealth) interventions have the potential to improve health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by aiding health workers to strengthen service delivery, as well as by helping patients and communities manage and prevent diseases. It is crucial to understand how best to implement mHealth within already burdened health services to maximally improve health outcomes and sustain the intervention in LMICs.

Objective

We aimed to identify key barriers to and facilitators of the implementation of mHealth interventions for infectious diseases in LMICs, drawing on a health systems analysis framework.

Methods

We followed the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) checklist to select qualitative or mixed methods studies reporting on determinants of already implemented infectious disease mHealth interventions in LMICs. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, the Social Sciences Citation Index, and Global Health. We extracted characteristics of the mHealth interventions and implementation experiences, then conducted an analysis of determinants using the Tailored Implementation for Chronic Diseases framework.

Results

We identified 10,494 titles for screening, among which 20 studies met our eligibility criteria. Of these, 9 studies examined mHealth smartphone apps and 11 examined SMS text messaging interventions. The interventions addressed HIV (n=7), malaria (n=4), tuberculosis (n=4), pneumonia (n=2), dengue (n=1), human papillomavirus (n=1), COVID-19 (n=1), and respiratory illnesses or childhood infectious diseases (n=2), with 2 studies addressing multiple diseases. Within these studies, 10 interventions were intended for use by health workers and the remainder targeted patients, at-risk individuals, or community members. Access to reliable technological resources, familiarity with technology, and training and support were key determinants of implementation. Additional themes included users forgetting to use the mHealth interventions and mHealth intervention designs affecting ease of use.

Conclusions

Acceptance of the intervention and the capacity of existing health care system infrastructure and resources are 2 key factors affecting the implementation of mHealth interventions. Understanding the interaction between mHealth interventions, their implementation, and health systems will improve their uptake in LMICs.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity and their impact on academic performance and psychological well-being among university students in 2024 in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

The prevalence and impact of obesity and overweight is one of the main concerns among researchers worldwide. There are several consequences of overweight and obesity among students in developing countries like Bangladesh. Therefore, this study aims to explore the prevalence and impact of overweight or obesity on individuals' self-esteem and academic performance among university students in Bangladesh.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

This study is based on primary data that was collected from 600 students of Jahangirnagar University using a well-structured questionnaire. The questionnaire included demographic information, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES), and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-7). The summary statistics, the Fisher exact test, the Chi-square test, and the Pearson correlation matrix were computed. A logistic regression model assessed the relationship between low self-esteem and other variables such as demographic characteristics, BMI status, and physical activities.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that 38.2% of the students are overweight or obese, and the prevalence rate is high among males. The lowest academic performance across all disciplines is observed among obese students. A negative correlation is observed between BMI and self-esteem (r = -0.41) and academic performance is negatively linked with overweight or obese (r = -0.26) Results depict that overweight/obese students are 7.11 times more likely to have low self-esteem (AOR: 7.11, 95% CI: 4.59-11.02) compared to normal students.

CONCLUSIONS

Overweight and obese students are more prone to lower academic performance and low self-esteem, considering physical inactivity and irregular dietary patterns. Therefore, university authorities ought to encourage students to engage in physical activities and should create awareness among students about the beneficial effects of nutritious foods and the importance of physical exercise.

Electronic monitoring device informed interventions for treatment adherence and clinical outcomes in children and adolescents: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review literature from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effectiveness of electronic monitoring device informed interventions on adherence and clinical outcomes in children and adolescents with chronic conditions.

STUDY DESIGN

A systematic review was conducted. An electronic literature search covering studies, with no pre-specified starting date up to June 2024, was performed in Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane and Trials databases was conducted.

PARTICIPANTS

RCTs of electronic monitoring device informed interventions in individuals aged 0 to 18 years with chronic conditions, were identified, with no restriction on geography or publication date.

METHODS

Extracted data was synthesised. As a result of differences in definitions and analysis of adherence and clinical outcomes across the studies a pooled meta-analysis was not possible therefore, a descriptive analysis was conducted. Risk of bias across all studies was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool.

RESULTS

11 RCTs, with 1485 children and adolescents were included. Studies were all from high- and middle-income countries, conducted among children and adolescents with asthma, and one each among children and adolescents with kidney transplant, multiple sclerosis, and epilepsy. Eight of the 11 studies reported a positive effect on adherence. Only four studies reported a positive effect on clinical outcomes and seven studies found no effect on clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Electronic monitoring device interventions show promise in improving adherence in children and adolescents with chronic conditions, in a limited number of chronic conditions, mostly asthma. Evidence for the efficacy of electronic monitoring device informed interventions on clinical outcomes and from low-income settings is lacking.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, CRD42022312057, registered in March 2022.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Electronic monitoring device informed interventions may improve treatment adherence in children and adolescents with chronic conditions but evidence from low-income settings is lacking @nyasha_dzavakwa @KatharinaKranz4 @dopapus @hilda_mujuru @rashida_abbferr @vickysimms_epi.

The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence and incidence of scabies, 1990-2021: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Current literature lacks a recent global analysis of scabies. This study aims to analyze the burden and epidemiological characteristics of scabies using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The analysis assessed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of scabies from 1990 to 2021, stratified by geographic location, socio demographic index (SDI), gender, and age. In 2021, scabies caused 5.3 million DALYs, 206.6 million prevalence, and 622.5 million incidence, primarily affecting children and young people. The burden was heaviest in middle SDI regions and lowest in high SDI regions. Oceania, Tropical Latin America, and East Asia ranked as the top three regions in global scabies burden. Nationally, Fiji, Guam, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Northern Mariana Islands had the highest age-standardised DALY rates. From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized rates (ASRs) of DALYs, prevalence, and incidence for scabies declined, while the absolute numbers increased. These ASRs showed an upward trend in high and high-middle SDI regions, with significant increases in Central Latin America and high-income North America. Larger burden increases were observed in Sri Lanka, the United States of America, and Mexico compared to other countries and territories. In terms of age, these ASRs increased from 40, particularly for women and the elderly.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The global scabies burden was higher in tropical regions, particularly among children and young people, in 2021. Between 1990 and 2021, the burden increased in higher SDI regions, Central Latin America, and high-income North America, warranting focused attention. Additionally, the rising burden among adults over 40, particularly women and the elderly, highlighted the need for targeted interventions.

Epidemiological analysis of chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030 by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) has emerged as a significant global health issue. This study aimed to reveal and predict the epidemiological characteristics of CKD.

METHODS

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study spanning the years 1990 to 2019 were employed to analyze the incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of CKD. Joinpoint analysis assessed epidemiological trends of CKD from 1990 to 2019. An age-period-cohort model evaluated risk variations. Risk factor analysis uncovered their influences on DALYs and deaths of CKD. Decomposition analysis explored the drivers to CKD. Frontier analysis evaluated the correlations between CKD burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was employed to predict future incidence and death of CKD.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 18,986,903 incident cases, 697,294,307 prevalent cases, 1,427,232 deaths, and 41,538,592 DALYs of CKD globally. Joinpoint analysis showed increasing age-standardized rates of CKD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY from 1990 to 2019. High systolic blood pressure significantly contributed to CKD-related deaths and DALYs, particularly in the high SDI region. Decomposition analysis identified population growth as the primary driver of CKD incident cases and DALYs globally. Countries like Nicaragua showed the highest effective differences, indicating room for improvement in CKD management. By 2030, while incident cases of CKD were predicted to rise, the global deaths might decrease.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed a concerning upward trend in the global burden of CKD, emphasizing the need for targeted management strategies across different causes, regions, age groups, and genders.

Global, regional, and national epidemiology of ischemic stroke from 1990 to 2021

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study aims to examine the global, regional, and national burden of ischemic stroke from 1990 to 2021.

METHOD

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to comprehensively assess ischemic stroke indicators globally, regionally, and in 204 countries, including incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and Joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

In 2021, there were a total of 7,804,449 cases of ischemic stroke globally (95% uncertainty interval = 6,719,760-8,943,692), with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 92.39. This represents a declining trend compared to 1990, with an EAPC of -0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.76 to -0.58). Mortality and DALY rates also showed a downward trend (EAPC in age-standardized mortality rate: -1.83, 95% CI = -1.92 to -1.74; EAPC in age-standardized DALY rate = -1.59, 95% CI = -1.68 to -1.50). The burden of ischemic stroke was inversely correlated with gross domestic product. Regionally, from 2014 to 2021, the Caribbean experienced the fastest increase in ASIR (annual percent change = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.18). Among 204 countries, North Macedonia had the highest incidence, mortality, and DALY rates. In addition to metabolic risks, particulate matter pollution and low temperatures were significant environmental and occupational risk factors for ischemic stroke. Smoking and a diet high in sodium were identified as key behavioral risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic stroke remains a serious global health challenge, and our results from this cross-sectional study suggest that the burden of disease remains high in Eastern Europe, East Asia, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Artificial intelligence in food and nutrition evidence: The challenges and opportunities

Science-informed decisions are best guided by the objective synthesis of the totality of evidence around a particular question and assessing its trustworthiness through systematic processes. However, there are major barriers and challenges that limit science-informed food and nutrition policy, practice, and guidance. First, insufficient evidence, primarily due to acquisition cost of generating high-quality data, and the complexity of the diet-disease relationship. Furthermore, the sheer number of systematic reviews needed across the entire agriculture and food value chain, and the cost and time required to conduct them, can delay the translation of science to policy. Artificial intelligence offers the opportunity to (i) better understand the complex etiology of diet-related chronic diseases, (ii) bring more precision to our understanding of the variation among individuals in the diet-chronic disease relationship, (iii) provide new types of computed data related to the efficacy and effectiveness of nutrition/food interventions in health promotion, and (iv) automate the generation of systematic reviews that support timely decisions. These advances include the acquisition and synthesis of heterogeneous and multimodal datasets. This perspective summarizes a meeting convened at the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The purpose of the meeting was to examine the current state and future potential of artificial intelligence in generating new types of computed data as well as automating the generation of systematic reviews to support evidence-based food and nutrition policy, practice, and guidance.

Physiotherapists' Perception of and Readiness to Use, Telerehabilitation for Musculoskeletal Disorders in Malaysia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction: Musculoskeletal ailments exert a significant impact on global populations. To address challenges posed by geographical constraints and financial limitations, physiotherapists have explored and found telerehabilitation to be a viable solution. Despite its proven effectiveness in clinical practice, the integration of telerehabilitation has been sluggish. This cross-sectional survey sought to delve into the perspectives and readiness of physiotherapists in Malaysia regarding telerehabilitation for musculoskeletal disorders. Methods: A customized survey instrument was developed and evaluated for face validity and reliability. The 36-item questionnaire was distributed through the Google Form platform, targeting respondents via social media channels such as Facebook and WhatsApp. Data analysis used descriptive statistics (frequency and percentage). Results: The survey garnered responses from 271 physiotherapists. A majority (76.3%, n = 202) expressed agreement regarding the potential benefits of telerehabilitation in physiotherapy practice. About 77% of the respondents also showcased greater readiness for monitoring client progress through telerehabilitation as opposed to assessment and treatment. Notable benefits identified by respondents included preventing cross-infection (98.5%) and reducing travel time for both clients (94.0%) and physiotherapists (90.6%). Conclusion: The study reveals that physiotherapists in Malaysia exhibit positive attitudes and preparedness for implementing telerehabilitation in managing musculoskeletal conditions.

Urinary Proteomics and Systems Biology Link Eight Proteins to the Higher Risk of Hypertension and Related Complications in Blacks Versus Whites

Blacks are more prone to salt-sensitive hypertension than Whites. This cross-sectional analysis of a multi-ethnic cohort aimed to search for proteins potentially involved in the susceptibility to salt sensitivity, hypertension, and hypertension-related complications. The study included individuals enrolled in African Prospective Study on the Early Detection and Identification of Cardiovascular Disease and Hypertension (African-PREDICT), Flemish Study of the Environment, Genes and Health Outcomes (FLEMENGHO), Prospective Cohort Study in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus for Validation of Biomarkers (PROVALID)-Austria, and Urinary Proteomics Combined with Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring for Health Care Reform Trial (UPRIGHT-HTM). Sequenced urinary peptides detectable in 70% of participants allowed the identification of parental proteins and were compared between Blacks and Whites. Of 513 urinary peptides, 300 had significantly different levels among healthy Black (n = 476) and White (n = 483) South Africans sharing the same environment. Analyses contrasting 582 Blacks versus 1731 Whites, and Sub-Saharan Blacks versus European Whites replicated the findings. COL4A1, COL4A2, FGA, PROC, MGP, MYOCD, FYXD2, and UMOD were identified as the most likely candidates underlying the racially different susceptibility to salt sensitivity, hypertension, and related complications. Enriched pathways included hemostasis, platelet activity, collagens, biology of the extracellular matrix, and protein digestion and absorption. Our study suggests that MGP and MYOCD being involved in cardiovascular function, FGA and PROC in coagulation, FYXD2 and UMOD in salt homeostasis, and COL4A1 and COL4A2 as major components of the glomerular basement membrane are among the many proteins potentially incriminated in the higher susceptibility of Blacks compared to Whites to salt sensitivity, hypertension, and its complication. Nevertheless, these eight proteins and their associated pathways deserve further exploration in molecular and human studies as potential targets for intervention to reduce the excess risk of hypertension and cardiovascular complications in Blacks versus Whites.

Impact of scaling up health intervention coverage on reducing maternal mortality in 26 low- and middle-income countries: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Prioritising actions is urgently needed to address the stagnation of the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR). As most maternal deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), we aimed to assess the impact of scaling up health intervention coverage on reducing MMR under four scenarios for 26 LMICs.

METHODS

We conducted a modelling study to estimate the MMR and additional maternal lives saved by intervention by 2030 for 26 LMICs using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). We used four scenarios to assess the impact of scaling up health intervention coverage by no scale-up (no change), modest scale-up (increased by 2% per year), substantial scale-up (increased by 5% per year), and universal coverage (coverage reached 95% by 2030). We divided the selected 26 countries into three groups according to their MMR levels in 2020.

RESULTS

Among 26 LMICs, six (23.1%) countries showed an increase in MMRs and 13 (50.0%) stalled on the reduction of MMR from 2015 to 2020. Under a substantial scale-up of coverage or scaling up to universal coverage, the average MMR in 2030 of 26 LMICs would be 62.8 or 52.8, reaching the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.1. Caesarean delivery, uterotonics for postpartum haemorrhage, and assisted vaginal delivery had a more important role in this reduction compared to other interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Scaling up the coverage of health interventions is critical for reducing MMRs. If a substantial scale-up or scaling up to universal coverage of continuous maternity interventions from preconception to postpartum period can be achieved, LMICs in Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions could reach the SDG 3.1 on time.

Serum calcium-magnesium ratio at admission predicts adverse outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

Evidence from observational studies suggests that increased calcium exposure may elevate the risk of adverse events in patients with coronary artery disease, while magnesium may exert a protective effect on disease risk. However, there have been limited investigations into the relationship between these minerals and acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Therefore, this study aimed to explore the association between the Serum calcium-magnesium ratio (Ca/Mg ratio) in patients with acute coronary syndrome and their clinical outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis reviewed the clinical data of 1,775 patients with ACS who underwent coronary angiography and/or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at the Fujian Heart Center between May 2017 and December 2022. The patients were categorized into four groups based on their Ca/Mg ratio at admission (Group 1, ≤2.373, n = 443; Group 2, 2.374-2.517, n = 442; Group 3, 2.518-2.675, n = 446; Group 4, ≥2.676, n = 444). Single-factor analysis and multivariate logistic regression were employed to analyze the clinical characteristics and postoperative clinical outcomes of patients in different groups. The primary outcome included major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), while the secondary outcomes included contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN)、all-cause rehospitalization raten and hematorrhea.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that the patients had a mean age of 64.50±10.79 years, with 370 female patients (20.8%). Additionally, 1,158 patients had hypertension (65.2%), and 710 patients had diabetes (40.5%). Univariate analysis showed an inverse relationship between the serum calcium-to-magnesium ratio and all-cause in-hospital mortality, with patients in the lowest quartile having the highest mortality rate. Multivariate analysis showed that the Ca/Mg ratio at admission was independently associated with MACCEs. Among them, this ratio was inversely associated with all-cause mortality [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.63; P<0.05] and positively associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation (aOR 1.86; 95% CI 1.08-3.21; P<0.05). Additionally, the Ca/Mg ratio was positively correlated with an increased risk of postoperative major bleeding (aOR 6.58; 95% CI 1.43-30.29; P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

In this large retrospective study, serum calcium and magnesium levels at admission were significantly associated with adverse outcomes in patients with ACS. The Ca/Mg ratio was identified as a reliable predictor of poor prognosis in ACS patients.

Global, regional, and national burden and trends of Low back pain in middle-aged adults: analysis of GBD 1990-2021 with projections to 2050

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to systematically evaluate the burden of low back pain(LBP) in the middle-aged population across global regions and between genders, assess the major risk factors and their impacts, and project the burden to 2050, providing a scientific basis for global preventive actions.

METHODS

This study utilized The Global Burden of Disease(GBD) 2021 database. First, we integrated the population data of the 45-49, 50-54, and 55-59 age groups provided by the GBD using a weighted average method to calculate the Disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) rate for the middle-aged population aged 45 to 59 years. Subsequently, we analyzed the trends in the burden of LBP globally and across regions from 1990 to 2021, with a focus on stratified data by country, risk factors (e.g., high BMI), and gender. Finally, we employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC) model to predict future trends in LBP burden from 2021 to 2050.

RESULTS

Globally, from 1990 to 2021, the DALY rate for the 45-59 age group with LBP decreased from 875.45(95%UI: 534.57-1340.68) per 100,000 people to 747.92 (450.55-1,161.66), with an EAPC of -0.46 (95%UI: -0.50 to -0.43). Despite the decline in DALY rates, the total number of DALYs due to LBP increased from 5,515,080.64 (95%UI: 3,367,626.11-8,445,931.67) in 1990 to 9,816,401.64 (95%UI: 5,913,142.33-15,249,187.03) in 2021, a rise of 4,301,321. High Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions were the most affected, with a DALY rate of 933.03 (95%UI: 557.90-1,420.60) per 100,000 in 2021. Among risk factors, high BMI showed the most significant increase, with DALY rates rising from 153.64 (95%UI: 15.94-334.63) per 100,000 in 1990 to 209.09 (95%UI: 22.16-452.58) in 2021, and an EAPC of 1.08 (95%UI: 1.02 to 1.14). Gender differences revealed a DALY rate of 705.39 (95%UI: 431.21-1,078.96) per 100,000 for males and 803.62 (95%UI: 471.69-1,266.63) per 100,000 for females in 2021. Projections based on the BAPC model suggest that by 2050, global DALYs due to LBP will increase to 11,626,643.07, with females expected to account for 6,725,763.24 and males for 4,900,879.84, indicating a greater burden for females.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the global burden and trends of LBP in the middle-aged population. Although the DALY rate for the 45-59 age group decreased from 1990 to 2021, the total number of DALYs increased significantly due to population aging. In this context, the burden of LBP in low-middle SDI regions has remained largely unchanged and remains substantial, while high-SDI regions, despite some decline, continue to bear the highest overall burden. High BMI continues to contribute significantly to the rising LBP burden, particularly in middle-aged populations, and demands urgent attention. Gender differences indicate that females bear a greater LBP burden than males, with the gap widening over time. Effective preventive and intervention measures are urgently needed to mitigate the future burden of LBP.

Development of a Prioritization Framework to Aid Healthcare Funding Decision Making in Health Technology Assessment in Australia: Application of Multicriteria Decision Analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study develops a prioritization framework to aid healthcare funding decision making in health technology assessment (HTA) in Australia using a multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach.

METHODS

MCDA frameworks for HTAs were reviewed through literature survey to identify the initial criteria and levels within each criterion. Key stakeholders and experts were consulted to confirm these criteria and levels. A conjoint analysis using 1000Minds was undertaken with policy makers from the Department of Health to establish ranking criteria and weighting scores. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine the sensitivity of findings to factors affecting the ranking and weighting scores. The MCDA was then applied to 6 examples of chronic care models or technologies projects to demonstrate the performance of this approach.

RESULTS

Five criteria (clinical efficacy/effectiveness, safety and tolerability, severity of the condition, quality/uncertainty, and direct impact on healthcare costs) were consistently ranked highest by healthcare decision makers. Among the criteria, patient-level health outcomes were considered the most important, followed by social and ethical values. The analyses were robust to inform the uncertainty in the parameter.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has developed an MCDA tool that effectively integrates key priorities for HTA reviews, reflecting the values and preferences of healthcare stakeholders in Australia. Although this tool aims to align the assessment process more closely with health benefits, it also highlights the importance of considering other criteria.

Current perspectives and trends in acupuncture for sleep disorders: a bibliometric analysis

Background

Limitations of conventional treatment methods for sleep disorders have driven the use and development of complementary and alternative therapies such as acupuncture. However, despite the surge in related studies, there is still a lack of visual analysis and detailed elaboration regarding the current status, international collaborations, and research hotspots of acupuncture for sleep disorders.

Methods

We conducted a bibliometric analysis of publications on acupuncture for sleep disorders using the Web of Science Core Collection database from 2004 to 2023. We utilized the R package "bibliometrix" to count publications and citations, VOSviewer to create an inter-institutional referencing network, and CiteSpace to identify references and keywords with the highest citation bursts. Additionally, we employed a bibliometric online analysis platform designed for analyzing national partnerships.

Results

A total of 432 pertinent papers were retrieved, with China being the most prolific contributor, accounting for 61.6% of the publications, followed by the United States and South Korea. Despite China's high output, its average article citation rate and proportion of international collaborations were notably lower than those of the United States. Key research institutions such as the University of Hong Kong, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, and Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine have played significant roles in this field. Among authors, Ka-Fai Chung from the University of Hong Kong stood out as the most productive. In terms of journals, MEDICINE was the most active, while SLEEP was considered the most authoritative. The clinical effects of acupuncture for insomnia have garnered significant attention in recent years, with electroacupuncture emerging as the prevailing technique for addressing sleep disorders.

Conclusion

This bibliometric study effectively outlines the basic framework of knowledge surrounding acupuncture for sleep disorders over the past two decades, covering publications, countries, institutions, authors, and sources. It highlights promising clinical effects and underlying mechanisms of acupuncture, particularly for secondary insomnia and specific sleep disorders like restless legs syndrome. Moving forward, the focus and challenge for future research lie in the development of standardized study protocols and harmonization of efficacy assessment metrics.

The Role of Visualization in Estimating Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Supporting and understanding the health of patients with chronic diseases and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is often a major challenge. Health data are often used in providing feedback to patients, and visualization plays an important role in facilitating the interpretation and understanding of data and, thus, influencing patients' behavior. Visual analytics enable efficient analysis and understanding of large datasets in real time. Digital health technologies can promote healthy lifestyle choices and assist in estimating CVD risk.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to present the most-used visualization techniques to estimate CVD risk.

METHODS

In this scoping review, we followed the Joanna Briggs Institute PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guidelines. The search strategy involved searching databases, including PubMed, CINAHL Ultimate, MEDLINE, and Web of Science, and gray literature from Google Scholar. This review included English-language articles on digital health, mobile health, mobile apps, images, charts, and decision support systems for estimating CVD risk, as well as empirical studies, excluding irrelevant studies and commentaries, editorials, and systematic reviews.

RESULTS

We found 774 articles and screened them against the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The final scoping review included 17 studies that used different methodologies, including descriptive, quantitative, and population-based studies. Some prognostic models, such as the Framingham Risk Profile, World Health Organization and International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts, Cardiovascular Risk Score, and a simplified Persian atherosclerotic CVD risk stratification, were simpler and did not require laboratory tests, whereas others, including the Joint British Societies recommendations on the prevention of CVD, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation, and Framingham-Registre Gironí del COR, were more complex and required laboratory testing-related results. The most frequently used prognostic risk factors were age, sex, and blood pressure (16/17, 94% of the studies); smoking status (14/17, 82%); diabetes status (11/17, 65%); family history (10/17, 59%); high-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol (9/17, 53%); and triglycerides and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (6/17, 35%). The most frequently used visualization techniques in the studies were visual cues (10/17, 59%), followed by bar charts (5/17, 29%) and graphs (4/17, 24%).

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of the scoping review, we found that visualization is very rarely included in the prognostic models themselves even though technology-based interventions improve health care worker performance, knowledge, motivation, and compliance by integrating machine learning and visual analytics into applications to identify and respond to estimation of CVD risk. Visualization aids in understanding risk factors and disease outcomes, improving bioinformatics and biomedicine. However, evidence on mobile health's effectiveness in improving CVD outcomes is limited.

Socioeconomic disparities and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases: A nationwide cross-sectional study

Background

Although socioeconomic status (SES) is considered a risk factor for cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (CCVDs), few studies have examined this association. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to assess the prevalence and trends of CCVDs across different SES groups over a 12-year period in a representative Korean population.

Methods

We analysed 47 745 economically active adults aged ≥30 and <65 years from 97 622 patients in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-18), where a new independent sample of the population was examined each year. We categorised the participants into four groups based on education level and income. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, and CCVD, including angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke, was analysed at four-year intervals.

Results

Average age, urban residence, white-collar occupation, and body mass index >30 increased, whereas CCVD prevalence did not change significantly (P = 0.410) over the study period. Low education (odds ratio (OR) = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.47, P < 0.001) and low income (OR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.02-1.28, P = 0.017) were significant determinants of CCVD in addition to existing traditional risk factors. CCVD prevalence was significantly higher in both the low-education and low-income groups compared to the high-education and high-income groups every four years, with no significant change in this gap over the study period (P = 0.239).

Conclusions

Despite the increase in the elderly population and the prevalence of obesity, the incidence of CCVDs in Korea has remained unchanged. Individuals with low education or low income had a significantly higher prevalence of CCVD, with the lowest SES group, defined by both low education and low income, consistently having the highest prevalence of CCVDs.

Global burden of viral infectious diseases of poverty based on Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Viral infectious diseases of poverty (vIDPs) remain a significant global health challenge. Despite their profound impact, the burden of these diseases is not comprehensively quantified. This study aims to analyze the global burden of six major vIDPs, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), HIV/AIDS, acute hepatitis, dengue, rabies, and Ebola virus disease (EVD), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021).

METHODS

Following the GBD 2021 framework, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of the six vIDPs across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We examined the association between the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and the burden of vIDPs. All estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100,000 population, calculated using the Bayesian statistical model employed by GBD 2021, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).

RESULTS

In 2021, vIDPs caused approximately 8.7 million deaths and 259.2 million DALYs, accounting for 12.8% and 9.0% of the global all-cause totals, respectively. Globally, the burden of vIDPs varied significantly: COVID-19 caused around 7.9 million (95% UI: 7.5, 8.4) deaths and 212.0 million (95% UI 197.9, 234.7) DALYs in 2021. Acute hepatitis had the second-highest age-standardized incidence rate, with 3411.5 (95% UI: 3201.8, 3631.3) per 100,000 population, while HIV/AIDS had a high age-standardized prevalence rate, with 483.1 (95% UI: 459.0, 511.4) per 100,000 population. Dengue incidence cases rose from 26.5 million (95% UI: 3.9, 51.9) in 1990 to 59.0 million (95% UI: 15.5, 106.9) in 2021. Rabies, although reduced in prevalence, continued to pose a significant mortality risk. EVD had the lowest overall burden but significant outbreak impacts. Age-standardized DALY rates for vIDPs were significantly negatively correlated with SDI: acute hepatitis (r = -0.8, P < 0.0001), rabies (r = -0.7, P < 0.0001), HIV/AIDS (r = -0.6, P < 0.0001), COVID-19 (r = -0.5, P < 0.0001), dengue (r = -0.4, P < 0.0001), and EVD (r = -0.2, P < 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

VIDPs pose major public health challenges worldwide, with significant regional, age, and gender disparities. The results underscore the need for targeted interventions and international cooperation to mitigate the burden of these diseases. Policymakers can use these findings to implement cost-effective interventions and improve health outcomes, particularly in regions with high or increasing burdens.

Protein and transcriptional biomarker profiling may inform treatment strategies in lower respiratory tract infections by indicating bacterial-viral differentiation

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) remain a significant global cause of infectious disease-related mortality. Accurate discrimination between acute bacterial and viral LRTIs is crucial for optimal patient care, prevention of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, and resource allocation. Plasma samples from LRTI patients with bacterial (n = 36), viral (n = 27; excluding SARS-CoV-2), SARS-CoV-2 (n = 22), and mixed bacterial-viral (n = 38) etiology were analyzed for protein profiling. Whole-blood RNA samples from a subset of patients (bacterial, n = 8; viral, n = 8; and SARS-CoV-2, n = 8) were analyzed for transcriptional profiling. Lasso regression modeling identified a seven-protein signature (CRP, IL4, IL9, IP10, MIP1α, MIP1β, and TNFα) that discriminated between patients with bacterial (n = 36) vs viral (n = 27) infections with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.98. When comparing patients with bacterial and mixed bacterial-viral infections (antibiotics clinically justified; n = 74) vs patients with viral and SARS-CoV-2 infections (antibiotics clinically not justified; n = 49), a 10-protein signature (CRP, bFGF, eotaxin, IFNγ, IL1β, IL7, IP10, MIP1α, MIP1β, and TNFα) with an AUC of 0.94 was identified. The transcriptional profiling analysis identified 232 differentially expressed genes distinguishing bacterial (n = 8) from viral and SARS-CoV-2 (n = 16) etiology. Protein-protein interaction enrichment analysis identified 20 genes that could be useful in the differentiation between bacterial and viral infections. Finally, we examined the performance of selected published gene signatures for bacterial-viral differentiation in our gene set, yielding promising results. Further validation of both protein and gene signatures in diverse clinical settings is warranted to establish their potential to guide the treatment of acute LRTIs.

IMPORTANCE

Accurate differentiation between bacterial and viral lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) is vital for effective patient care and resource allocation. This study investigated specific protein signatures and gene expression patterns in plasma and blood samples from LRTI patients that distinguished bacterial and viral infections. The identified signatures can inform the design of point-of-care tests that can aid healthcare providers in making informed decisions about antibiotic prescriptions in order to reduce unnecessary use, thereby contributing to reduced side effects and antibiotic resistance. Furthermore, the potential for faster and more accurate diagnoses for improved patient management in acute LRTIs is compelling.

Probabilistic inference of epigenetic age acceleration from cellular dynamics

The emergence of epigenetic predictors was a pivotal moment in geroscience, propelling the measurement and concept of biological aging into a quantitative era; however, while current epigenetic clocks show strong predictive power, they are data-driven in nature and are not based on the underlying biological mechanisms driving methylation dynamics. We show that predictions of these clocks are susceptible to several confounding non-age-related phenomena that make interpretation of these estimates and associations difficult. To address these limitations, we developed a probabilistic model describing methylation transitions at the cellular level. Our approach reveals two measurable components, acceleration and bias, which directly reflect perturbations of the underlying cellular dynamics. Acceleration is the proportional increase in the speed of methylation transitions across CpG sites, whereas bias corresponds to global changes in methylation levels. Using data from 15,900 participants from the Generation Scotland study, we develop a robust inference framework and show that these are two distinct processes confounding current epigenetic predictors. Our results show improved associations of acceleration and bias with physiological traits known to impact healthy aging, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively. Furthermore, a genome-wide association study of epigenetic age acceleration identified seven genomic loci.

Thailand - how far are we from achieving a healthy and sustainable diet? A longitudinal ecological study

Background

Newly industrialized countries like Thailand have been influenced by globalization, westernization, and urbanization over the last decades, leading to changes in dietary habits as well as food production. Consequences of these changes include rising non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and environmental degradation, which are defined as the leading global challenges today. The objectives of this study are to identify Thailand's dietary changes, considering health and sustainability aspects, and to determine correlations between these changes and NCD cases as well as environmental impacts (GHG emissions, land-, nitrogen-, phosphorus-use). In this way, diet-related adjustments can be identified to promote planetary and human health.

Methods

In this longitudinal ecological study, relative differences between the average food consumption in Thailand and the reference values of a healthy and sustainable diet, the Planetary Health Diet (PHD), were calculated. Furthermore, a bivariate correlation analysis was conducted, using data, based on Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO's) data, results from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), and PHD's reference values.

Findings

The consumption quantities of meat, eggs, saturated oils, and sugar increased significantly since 1961. The food groups, that have exceeded PHD's upper reference values, include sugar (+452%), red meat (+220%), grains (+143%), saturated oils (+20%) and eggs (+19%), while vegetables (-63%), and unsaturated oils (-61%) have fallen below PHD's lower limits. Concerning the bivariate correlation analyses, all investigated variables show significant correlations. The most significant correlations were found in NCD cases (r = 0.903, 95% CI 0.804-0.953), nitrogen use (r = 0.872, 95% CI 0.794-0.922), and land use (r = 0.870, 95% CI 0.791-0.921), followed by phosphorus use (r = 0.832, 95% CI 0.733-0.897), and green-house gas (GHG) emissions (r = 0.479, 95% CI 0.15-0.712).

Interpretation

The results show, that the determined differences of unhealthy or unsustainable food groups have increased concurrently with NCD cases and environmental impacts over the last decades in Thailand. A shift towards a reduced intake of sugar, red meat, grains, saturated oils and eggs along with an increase in vegetables and unsaturated oils, might support environmental and human health.

Funding

None.

Differential effects of milk, yogurt, and cheese on energy homeostasis and brown adipose tissue phenotype in high-fat diet-induced obese mice

Aim: We hypothesized that milk, yogurt, and cheese have differential impacts on energy expenditure (EE) and obesity in mice fed a high-fat diet (HFD). Methods: C57BL/6 mice (n = 16 per group) were fed a HFD or a HFD supplemented with fat-free milk (MILK), fat-free plain yogurt (YOG), or reduced-fat cheddar cheese (CHE; 19 kcal% fat), each provided at 10% of the daily energy intake, for 8 weeks. EE was quantified using a metabolic chamber. Metabolic pathways related to BAT mitochondrial function and uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) abundance were assessed. Serum lipidomic profiles were analyzed to identify potential mediators of the observed effects. Results: MILK supplementation lowered weight gain and fat accumulation and enhanced EE and BAT thermogenesis, perhaps via the SIRT1-AMPK-PGC1α axis in BAT. This led to elevated UCP1 abundance and enhanced the abundance of hormone-sensitive lipase (HSL). MILK also altered serum lipid species, indicating enhanced energy use, and promoted BAT thermogenesis and mitochondrial function pathways. YOG exhibited a similar pattern but a lower magnitude of effects than MILK on reducing weight gain and fat mass, increasing EE, and BAT thermogenic proteins, including AMPK-PGC1α-UCP1. Both MILK and YOG showed a relative increase in serum PC 15:0_15:0 and LPC 15:0. In contrast, CHE reduced weight gain and increased EE without impacting BAT thermogenesis proteins or serum lipid species. Conclusion: Our study showed that MILK, YOG, and CHE reduced weight gain in mice on a HFD by increasing EE. MILK and YOG also up-regulated BAT thermogenesis, while both additionally altered lipids involved in fat metabolism and inflammation. CHE did not affect BAT thermogenesis and lipid species compared to HFD.

Global Health Indicators and Child Mortality Trends: Insights from a Global Panel Data Analysis of 200 Countries

The aim of this study was to explore how medical resources and vaccine coverage relate to infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U-5MR), which are both key national health indicators. This longitudinal study was based on panel data from the national level of 200 countries. Data from 1990 to 2021 were grouped into seven regions based on geographic and epidemiological similarities. Regarding correlation, the high-income region showed a different trend from that shown by other regions. Health expenditure was positively associated with IMR and U-5MR globally. Number of medical doctors per 1,000 people was negatively associated with IMR and U-5MR globally. Hepatitis type B (HBV) and measles, first dose (MCV) were negatively associated with IMR and HBV, MCV, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin were negatively associated with U-5MR globally. In quadratic regression, the correlation between the number of doctors and mortality stabilizes or plateaus at approximately four individuals. Overall vaccine coverage was positively correlated with mortality up to a certain threshold, beyond which it became negatively correlated. A higher number of doctors was consistently associated with decreased mortality, regardless of location, while other factors varied by region. Our study findings highlight the importance of implementing global strategies that are specific to each region's characteristics to reduce IMR and U-5MR.

Global burden of chronic kidney disease in adolescents and young adults, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

The global status of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is underestimated, particularly the burden on adolescents and young adults (early-onset, aged 15-39).

Objective

We aim to investigate the pattern and trend of early-onset CKD from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We analyzed age-specific rates of early-onset CKD incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) using Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data. We examined the global, regional, national, gender-based, age group-based, and temporal changes of early-onset CKD burden from 1990 to 2019, as well as proportional DALY attributions of various risk factors.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the global age-specific incidence rate (per 100,000 population) significantly increased from 25.04 (95% confidence interval 18.51, 31.65) to 32.21 (23.73, 40.81) for early-onset CKD. However, the global age-specific death rate significantly decreased from 2.96 (2.76, 3.15) to 2.86 (2.61, 3.11), and the age-specific DALY rate remained stable. Regarding sociodemographic indexes (SDI), countries with middle SDI had the highest incidence rates and the fastest increasing trends, while those with low and low-middle SDI experienced the highest death and DALY rates. Women had a generally higher age-specific incidence rate than men, whereas men showed higher age-specific death and DALY rates. In addition, the burdens of CKD increased with age among adolescents and young adults. Moreover, the main attributable risk factors for DALY of early-onset CKD were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and body mass index (BMI).

Conclusion

The age-specific incidence rate of early-onset CKD increased significantly from 1990 to 2019, and the age-specific DALY rate remained stable. High SBP, high FPG, and high BMI were the primary risk factors. Targeted prevention and healthcare measures should be developed considering age, gender, and region.

Insights into epidemiological trends of severe chest injuries: an analysis of age, period, and cohort from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

This study assessed the global trends and burden of severe chest injury, including rib fractures, lung contusions, and heart injuries from 1990 to 2019. Herein, we predicted the burden patterns and temporal trends of severe chest injuries to provide epidemiological evidence globally and in China.

METHODS

In our analysis, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and years lived with disability rate (ASYR) of severe chest injury were analyzed by gender, age, sociodemographic index, and geographical region between 1990 and 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends were depicted by calculating the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The impact of age, period, and cohort factors was assessed using an Age-Period-Cohort model. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict severe chest injury trends from 2020 to 2050.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global number of severe chest injury cases reached 7.95 million, with the highest incidence rate observed in Central Europe (209.61). Afghanistan had the highest ASIRs at 277.52, while North Korea had the lowest ASIRs at 41.02. From 1990 to 2019, the Syrian Arab Republic saw significant increases in ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR, with EAPCs of 10.4%, 9.31%, and 10.3%, respectively. Burundi experienced a decrease in ASIR with an EAPC of - 6.85% (95% confidence interval [CI] - 11.11, - 2.37), while Liberia's ASPR and ASYR declined with EAPCs of - 3.22% (95% CI - 4.73, - 1.69) and - 5.67% (95% CI - 8.00, - 3.28), respectively. Falls and road injuries remained the most common causes. The relative risk of severe chest injury by age, period, and cohort demonstrated a complex effect globally and in China. The ARIMA model forecasted a steady increase in global numbers from 2020 to 2050, while in China, it forecasted an increase in incidence, a decrease in ASIR and ASYR, and an increase in ASPR.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a groundbreaking analysis of global severe chest injury, shedding light on its measures and impact. These findings highlight the need for timely, specialized care and addressing regional disparities to mitigate the severe chest injury burden.

Gender disparities in multi-state health transitions and life expectancy among the ≥50-year-old population: A cross-national multi-cohort study

Background

Understanding how disability progresses with ageing is important for shaping policies aimed at improving older adults' quality of life, especially when considering the global trends in ageing, life expectancy (LE), and gender disparity. We aimed to assess the health transition probabilities of daily living activities and their implications on LE and gender gaps in global middle-aged and elderly populations.

Methods

In this multi-cohort study with a sample of 74 101 individuals aged ≥50 years, we analysed data from six international cohorts: the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in the USA, the Mexican Longitudinal Study of Ageing (MHAS), the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA), and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We estimated probabilities between robust health; disabilities related to instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (BADL); and mortality through multi-state Markov models. We included gender as a covariate in the models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs), while we calculated LE within the distinct health states of robust health, IADL disabilities, BADL disabilities, and mortality using the stochastic population analysis for complex events (SPACE) microsimulation.

Results

Women had higher progressions to disability (IADL: HR = 1.392; BADL: HR = 1.356) compared to men, who conversely showed lesser progression from IADL to BADL disability (HR = 0.856) and lower mortality rates (span of HRs = 0.232-0.692). LE at age 50 favoured women (32.16-38.22 years) over men (28.99-33.58 years), yet they spent more time in states of disability. We otherwise observed significant regional and gender disparities in healthy LE.

Conclusions

We identified ageing patterns in which longer lives are often coupled with extended periods of disability. Pronounced gender and regional differences indicate a need for targeted health interventions to address inequities and improve seniors' quality of life. Our findings highlight the necessity for policy interventions focussed on health equity to more completely respond to the demographic shift towards older populations.

A comparative study on the effects of biodegradable high-purity magnesium screw and polymer screw for fixation in epiphyseal trabecular bone

With mechanical strength close to cortical bone, biodegradable and osteopromotive properties, magnesium (Mg)-based implants are promising biomaterials for orthopedic applications. However, during the degradation of such implants, there are still concerns on the potential adverse effects such as formation of cavities, osteolytic phenomena and chronic inflammation. Therefore, to transform Mg-based implants into clinical practice, the present study evaluated the local effects of high-purity Mg screws (HP-Mg, 99.99 wt%) by comparing with clinically approved polylactic acid (PLA) screws in epiphyseal trabecular bone of rabbits. After implantation of screws at the rabbit distal femur, bone microstructural, histomorphometric and biomechanical properties were measured at various time points (weeks 4, 8 and 16) using micro-CT, histology and histomorphometry, micro-indentation and scanning electron microscope. HP-Mg screws promoted peri-implant bone ingrowth with higher bone mass (BV/TV at week 4: 0.189 ± 0.022 in PLA group versus 0.313 ± 0.053 in Mg group), higher biomechanical properties (hardness at week 4: 35.045 ± 1.000 HV in PLA group versus 51.975 ± 2.565 HV in Mg group), more mature osteocyte LCN architecture, accelerated bone remodeling process and alleviated immunoreactive score (IRS of Ram11 at week 4: 5.8 ± 0.712 in PLA group versus 3.75 ± 0.866 in Mg group) as compared to PLA screws. Furthermore, we conducted finite element analysis to validate the superiority of HP-Mg screws as orthopedic implants by demonstrating reduced stress concentration and uniform stress distribution around the bone tunnel, which led to lower risks of trabecular microfractures. In conclusion, HP-Mg screws demonstrated greater osteogenic bioactivity and limited inflammatory response compared to PLA screws in the epiphyseal trabecular bone of rabbits. Our findings have paved a promising way for the clinical application of Mg-based implants.

Transforming air pollution management in India with AI and machine learning technologies

A comprehensive approach is essential in India's ongoing battle against air pollution, combining technological advancements, regulatory reinforcement, and widespread societal engagement. Bridging technological gaps involves deploying sophisticated pollution control technologies and addressing the rural-urban disparity through innovative solutions. The review found that integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI&ML) in air quality forecasting demonstrates promising results with a remarkable model efficiency. In this study, initially, we compute the PM2.5 concentration over India using a surface mass concentration of 5 key aerosols such as black carbon (BC), dust (DU), organic carbon (OC), sea salt (SS) and sulphates (SU), respectively. The study identifies several regions highly vulnerable to PM2.5 pollution due to specific sources. The Indo-Gangetic Plains are notably impacted by high concentrations of BC, OC, and SU resulting from anthropogenic activities. Western India experiences higher DU concentrations due to its proximity to the Sahara Desert. Additionally, certain areas in northeast India show significant contributions of OC from biogenic activities. Moreover, an AI&ML model based on convolutional autoencoder architecture underwent rigorous training, testing, and validation to forecast PM2.5 concentrations across India. The results reveal its exceptional precision in PM2.5 prediction, as demonstrated by model evaluation metrics, including a Structural Similarity Index exceeding 0.60, Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio ranging from 28-30 dB and Mean Square Error below 10 μg/m3. However, regulatory challenges persist, necessitating robust frameworks and consistent enforcement mechanisms, as evidenced by the complexities in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Implementing tailored regional pollution control strategies, integrating AI&ML technologies, strengthening regulatory frameworks, promoting sustainable practices, and encouraging international collaboration are essential policy measures to mitigate air pollution in India.

Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease in 2019 based on the APC model

BACKGROUND

Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies.

METHODS

Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37, 95%UI -0.46 to -0.28) and the age-standardized DALY rate (EAPC = -1.72, 95%UI -1.80 to -1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a "U"-shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body-mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region.

Adult patients with alopecia areata report a significantly better medication adherence compared to those with atopic dermatitis: Results from a large cross-sectional cohort study

Background

Alopecia areata (AA) and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic skin diseases where the suboptimal medication adherence (MA) may result in poor clinical outcomes.

Objective

To assess the impact of AA on MA among adults compared to AD.

Methods

Patient reported MA of adults with AA were compared with AD. Patients were identified from the Danish Skin Cohort, a nationwide prospective cohort of dermatological patients in Denmark. We used the Medication Adherence Report Scale- 5, a self-reporting questionnaire, to assess MA. Demographic and disease characteristics were collected. Logistic regression was conducted.

Results

Patients with AA reported higher MA than AD (mean 21.81 vs 18.29). Logistic regression analyses showed AA diagnosis had a statistically significant positive effect on MA (odds ratio = 3.94, 95% CI 2.01-8.89). Men reported significantly higher MA (odds ratio = 1.49, 95% CI 1.14-1.94). Current disease severity did not impact MA.

Limitations

Data were self-reported by patients. Data regarding the specific treatment undergone by patients were not available.

Conclusion

Patients with AA have significantly higher MA compared to patients with AD. The stability of AA patients' symptoms may lead to higher MA due to a desire for disease control. Conversely, the sporadicity of AD symptoms could negatively affect adherence, causing fluctuations in medication use.

Association of birth and periodontal disease in Bolivia, Chile and Colombia

Introducción. El parto prematuro es un problema médico, social y económico importante, causa gran mortalidad y morbilidad neonatal, tiene un impacto importante en el sistema de salud y afecta la calidad de vida de las familias. El peso de los recién nacidos de madres con enfermedad periodontal es significativamente menor en comparación con los de madres no afectadas por esta enfermedad bucal. Este resultado adverso se considera un problema de salud pública global según los datos epidemiológicos. Objetivo. Determinar la asociación entre la prevalencia de parto prematuro y la enfermedad periodontal en Bolivia, Chile y Colombia entre el 2000 y el 2020. Materiales y métodos. Este estudio ecológico consideró las poblaciones de mujeres de Bolivia, Chile y Colombia, y la prevalencia de partos prematuros y enfermedad periodontal, discriminadas por grupos de edad. El estudio abarcó el período entre el 2000 y el 2020. La estrategia de búsqueda con la herramienta de investigación del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation incluyó prevalencia, grupos de edad, años entre 2000 y 2020, causas de parto prematuro y enfermedad periodontal, contexto y ubicaciones, mujeres y tasas. El análisis estadístico incluyó una regresión lineal simple entre parto prematuro y enfermedad periodontal para cada grupo de edad dentro de cada país. Resultados. Las tasas de partos prematuros fueron mayores en el grupo de 15 a 19 años (Bolivia: 697.563, Chile: 844.864, Colombia: 804.126). La prevalencia de la enfermedad periodontal aumentó con la edad, particularmente en el grupo de 45 a 49 años (Bolivia: 22'077.854, Chile: 34'297.901, Colombia: 32'032,830). Según los grupos de edad, la regresión lineal fue estadísticamente significativa (p < 0,001) para todos los grupos evaluados de la población boliviana, en los grupos mayores de 30 años para las colombianas y solo en el grupo de 15 a 19 años para las mujeres chilenas. Conclusión. Se encontró asociación entre el parto prematuro y la enfermedad periodontal en todos los grupos de edad en Bolivia, solo en el grupo de 15 a 19 años en Chile, y de 30 años y más en Colombia en el período evaluado de 20 años.

A Global, Regional, and National Burden and Quality of Care Index for Schizophrenia: Global Burden of Disease Systematic Analysis 1990-2019

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Schizophrenia is a mental disorder usually presented in adulthood that affects roughly 0.3 percent of the population. The disease contributes to more than 13 million years lived with disability the global burden of disease. The current study aimed to provide new insights into the quality of care in Schizophrenia via the implementation of the newly introduced quality of care index (QCI) into the existing data.

STUDY DESIGN

The data from the global burden of disease database was used for schizophrenia. Two secondary indices were calculated from the available indices and used in a principal component analysis to develop a proxy of QCI for each country. The QCI was then compared between different sociodemographic index (SDI) and ages. To assess the disparity in QCI between the sexes, the gender disparity ratio (GDR) was also calculated and analyzed in different ages and SDIs.

STUDY RESULTS

The global QCI proxy score has improved between 1990 and 2019 by roughly 13.5%. Concerning the gender disparity, along with a rise in overall GDR the number of countries having a GDR score of around one has decreased which indicates an increase in gender disparity regarding quality of care of schizophrenia. Bhutan and Singapore had 2 of the highest QCIs in 2019 while also showing GDR scores close to one.

CONCLUSIONS

While the overall conditions in the quality of care have improved, significant disparities and differences still exist between different countries, genders, and ages in the quality of care regarding schizophrenia.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke attributable to diet high in sodium from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019

Purpose

Given the increasing occurrence of stroke and high-sodium diets (DHIS) over the past 30 years, it is crucial to assess the global, national, and regional impact of DHIS on the burden of stroke.

Methods and materials

The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 provided the study's data. We used the Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 to evaluate the burden of stroke attributable to DHIS. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were used to quantify the burden. We perform correlation analysis utilizing the Spearman rank-order correlation method, and we calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to evaluate temporal trends.

Results

Globally, DHIS accounts for 17,673.33 thousand disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 700.98 thousand deaths of stroke in 2019. The burden of stroke attributable to DHIS has declined between 1990 and 2019 globally and in the majority of regions, with the largest declines seen in regions with high sociodemographic indexes (SDI). Both ASMR and ASDR were higher regionally in regions with moderate SDI than those in developed regions. Furthermore, the absolute values of EAPC, reflecting the rate of decrease, were notably lower in these regions compared to developed nations. High-income North America, categorized within the SDI regions, notably witnessed the smallest decline in ASDR over the last three decades. Additionally, from 1990 to 2019, males consistently bore a larger burden of stroke attributable to DHIS.

Conclusion

The burden of stroke attributable to DHIS remained a major concern despite advancements in public knowledge of stroke and their utilization of emergency medical services. Over the past 30 years, more burden has been placed on males and regions with moderate SDI values; in males, higher EAPC values for both ASMR and ASDR have been found. This underscores the urgent need for effective interventions to alleviate the burden of stroke associated with DHIS.

The global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers: A population based study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the global burden, trends and cross-country inequalities of female breast and gynaecologic cancers (FeBGCs).

DESIGN

Population-Based Study.

SETTING

Data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

POPULATION

Individuals diagnosed with FeBGCs.

METHODS

Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-standardised Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rates (ASDRs) and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) described the burden. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and their confidence interval (CI) of age-standardised rates (ASRs) illustrated trends. Social inequalities were quantified using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were the burden of FeBGCs and the trends in its inequalities over time.

RESULTS

In 2019, the ASDRs per 100 000 females were as follows: breast cancer: 473.83 (95% UI: 437.30-510.51), cervical cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85), ovarian cancer: 124.68 (95% UI: 109.13-138.67) and uterine cancer: 210.64 (95% UI: 177.67-234.85). The trends per year from 1990 to 2019 were expressed as EAPCs of ASDRs and these: for Breast cancer: -0.51 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.45); Cervical cancer: -0.95 (95% CI: -0.99 to -0.89); Ovarian cancer: -0.08 (95% CI: -0.12 to -0.04); and Uterine cancer: -0.84 (95% CI: -0.93 to -0.75). In the Social Inequalities Analysis (1990-2019) the SII changed from 689.26 to 607.08 for Breast, from -226.66 to -239.92 for cervical, from 222.45 to 228.83 for ovarian and from 74.61 to 103.58 for uterine cancer. The concentration index values ranged from 0.2 to 0.4.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of FeBGCs worldwide showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Countries or regions with higher Socio-demographic Index (SDI) bear a higher DALYs burden of breast, ovarian and uterine cancers, while those with lower SDI bear a heavier burden of cervical cancer. These inequalities increased over time.

Global incidence and prevalence of gastritis and duodenitis from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Gastritis and duodenitis, prevalent diseases of the digestive system, impose a significant global burden. This study aimed to examine their incidence and prevalence patterns worldwide, including changes over the past 30 years.

METHODS

The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of gastritis and duodenitis, stratified by age, sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI), were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The dynamic trends were captured by calculating the average annual percentage changes (AAPC).

RESULTS

In 2019, the global ASIR and ASPR of gastritis and duodenitis were 379.88/100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 312.42/100 000-448.12/100 000) and 518.11/100 000 (95% UI: 420.62/100 000-631.66/100 000), respectively. The highest rates were observed among the 50-69 age group (ASIR: 856.48/100 000; ASPR: 1158.04/100 000) and in low SDI regions (ASIR: 443.33/100 000; ASPR: 631.22/100 000). From 1990 to 2019, there was a significant decrease in global ASIR (AAPC = -0.34%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.36% to -0.31%) and ASPR (AAPC = -0.34%, 95% CI: -0.37% to -0.31%) of gastritis and duodenitis. However, ASIR (AAPC = 0.47%, 95% CI: 0.42%-0.52%) and ASPR (AAPC = 0.51%, 95% CI: 0.47%-0.52%) of gastritis and duodenitis experienced a significant increase in low SDI regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a significant decrease in the global incidence and prevalence of gastritis and duodenitis, these conditions continue to impose a burden on individuals aged 50-69 years and low SDI regions. Targeted interventions for those specific populations and regions are necessary.

Guiding principles for the next generation of health-care sustainability metrics

Metrics for health-care sustainability are crucial for tracking progress and understanding the advantages of different operations or systems as the health-care sector addresses the climate crisis and other environmental challenges. Measurement of the key metrics of absolute energy use and greenhouse gas emissions now has substantial momentum, but our overall measurement framework generally has serious deficiencies. Because existing metrics are often borrowed from other sectors, many are unconnected to the specifics of health-care provision or existing health system performance indicators, the potential negative effects of health care on public health are largely absent, a consistent and standardised set of health-care sustainability measurement concepts does not yet exist, and current dynamics in health systems such as privatisation are largely ignored. The next generation of health-care sustainability metrics must address these deficiencies by expanding the scope of observation and the entry points for interventions. Specifically, metrics should be standardised, reliable, meaningful, integrated with data management systems, fair, and aligned with the core mission of health care. Incentives with the potential to contradict sustainability goals must be addressed in future planning and implementation if the next generation of metrics is to be effective and incentivise positive systemic change.

Global burden and epidemiological prediction of polycystic ovary syndrome from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

To comprehensively assess the global, regional and national burden of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (DLYs) based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional descriptive study. Data on PCOS incidence, prevalence, and DLYs from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the GBD study 2019. According to the commonwealth income, WHO region, and the sociodemographic index, the estimates were demonstrated along with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The EAPC data were analyzed by four levels of hierarchical clustering and displayed in the world map. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the PCOS burden in the next 20 years.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the number of PCOS incidence in one year increased from 1.4 million in 1990 to 2.1 million in 2019 (54.3%). Only the EAPC estimates of incidence in the Region of the Americas decreased, and their aged-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) values were the highest in 1990 and 2019. There was no significant correlation between human development index (HDI) and EAPC. However, when HDI < 0.7, EAPC of incidence and prevalence was positively correlated with HDI, and when HDI > 0.7, EAPC of incidence and prevalence was negatively correlated with HDI. Countries with the middle level HDI have the highest increasing trend of ASIR and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR). The 10 to 19 years old group had the highest incidence counts of PCOS globally. Besides, the ARIMA and BAPC model showed the consistent increasing trend of the burden of PCOS.

CONCLUSION

In order to better promote the early diagnosis and treatment, expert consensus and diagnosis criteria should be formulated according to the characteristics of different ethnic groups or regions. It is necessary to emphasize the early screening and actively develop targeted drugs for PCOS.

Tongxinluo capsule as a multi-functional traditional Chinese medicine in treating cardiovascular disease: A review of components, pharmacological mechanisms, and clinical applications

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are one of the most significant diseases that pose a threat to human health. The innovative traditional Chinese medicine Tongxinluo Capsule, developed under the guidance of the theory of traditional Chinese medicine, has good clinical efficacy in various cardiovascular diseases, this medicine has effects such as blood protection, vascular protection, myocardial protection, stabilizing vulnerable plaques, and vasodilation. However, CVDs are a multifactorial disease, and their underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Therefore, exploring the mechanism of action and clinical application of Tongxinluo Capsule in the treatment of various cardiovascular diseases is beneficial for exerting its therapeutic effect from multiple components, targets, and pathways. At the same time, it provides broader treatment ideas for other difficult to treat diseases in the cardiovascular event chain, and has significant theoretical and clinical significance for improving the treatment of cardiovascular diseases with traditional Chinese medicine.

Social determinants and work-related musculoskeletal disorders in Brazil

This study aimed to analyze the prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) and their association with individual and contextual factors in the Brazilian population. This quantitative cross-sectional study used secondary data from the Brazilian National Health Survey from August 2013 to February 2014. The dependent variable included WMSD, and independent variables were analyzed as individual and contextual factors. WMSD was mostly prevalent in females, individuals aged 43 to 59 years, with chronic physical or mental disorders, reporting frequent sleep disorders, and performing integrative and complementary health practices, physical exercise or sports, and heavy physical activity or housework. Regarding contextual factors, high social classes and proportion of individuals with formal work were associated with a high prevalence of WMSD, whereas a high Gini index was associated with a low prevalence. Thus, a high prevalence of WMSD in the Brazilian population was associated with individual and contextual factors, which should be the target of health professionals for actions of promotion, prevention, and intervention at individual or collective care levels.

Assessing the Impact of Non-Exhaust Emissions on the Asthmatic Airway (IONA) Protocol for a Randomised Three-Exposure Crossover Study

BACKGROUND

People living with asthma are disproportionately affected by air pollution, with increased symptoms, medication usage, hospital admissions, and the risk of death. To date, there has been a focus on exhaust emissions, but traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) can also arise from the mechanical abrasion of tyres, brakes, and road surfaces. We therefore created a study with the aim of investigating the acute impacts of non-exhaust emissions (NEEs) on the lung function and airway immune status of asthmatic adults.

METHODS

A randomised three-condition crossover panel design will expose adults with asthma using a 2.5 h intermittent cycling protocol in a random order at three locations in London, selected to provide the greatest contrast in the NEE components within TRAP. Lung function will be monitored using oscillometry, fractional exhaled nitric oxide, and spirometry (the primary outcome is the forced expiratory volume in one second). Biomarkers of inflammation and airborne metal exposure will be measured in the upper airway using nasal lavage. Symptom responses will be monitored using questionnaires. Sources of exhaust and non-exhaust concentrations will be established using source apportionment via the positive matrix factorisation of high-time resolution chemical measures conducted at the exposure sites.

DISCUSSION

Collectively, this study will provide us with valuable information on the health effects of NEE components within ambient PM2.5 and PM10, whilst establishing a biological mechanism to help contextualise current epidemiological observations.

Health outcomes and healthcare utilization associated with four undiagnosed chronic conditions: evidence from nationally representative survey data in Sri Lanka

Background

Low awareness of chronic conditions raises the risk of poorer health outcomes and may result in healthcare utilization and spending in response to symptoms of undiagnosed conditions. Little evidence exists, particularly from lower-middle-income countries, on the health and healthcare use of undiagnosed people with an indication of a condition. This study aimed to compare health (physical, mental, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL)) and healthcare (inpatient and outpatient visits and out-of-pocket (OOP) medical spending) outcomes of undiagnosed Sri Lankans with an indication of coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension, diabetes, and depression with the outcomes of their compatriots who were diagnosed or had no indication of these conditions.

Methods

This study used a nationally representative survey of Sri Lankan adults to identify people with an indication of CHD, hypertension, diabetes, or depression, and ascertain if they were diagnosed. Outcomes were self-reported measures of physical and mental functioning (12-Item Short Form Survey (SF-12)), HRQoL (EQ-5D-5L), inpatient and outpatient visits, and OOP spending. For each condition, we estimated the mean of each outcome for respondents with (a) no indication, (b) an indication without diagnosis, and (c) a diagnosis. We adjusted the group differences in these means for socio-demographic covariates using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for physical and mental function, Tobit regression for HRQoL, and a generalized linear model (GLM) for healthcare visits and OOP spending.

Results

An indication of each of CHD and depression, which are typically symptomatic, was associated with a lower adjusted mean of physical (CHD -2.65, 95% CI -3.66, -1.63; depression -5.78, 95% CI -6.91, -4.64) and mental functioning (CHD -2.25, 95% CI -3.38, -1.12; depression -6.70, 95% CI -7.97, -5.43) and, for CHD, more annual outpatient visits (2.13, 95% CI 0.81, 3.44) compared with no indication of the respective condition. There were no such differences for indications of hypertension and diabetes, which are often asymptomatic.

Conclusions

Living with undiagnosed CHD and depression was associated with worse health and, for CHD, greater utilization of healthcare. Diagnosis and management of these symptomatic conditions can potentially improve health partly through substitution of effective healthcare for that which primarily responds to symptoms.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s44263-024-00075-0.

Clinical applications of telemedicine services using a regional telemedicine platform for cancer treatment: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Telemedicine is beneficial for improving treatment efficiency and reducing medical expenses of cancer patients. This study focuses on cancer patients participating in teleconsultations through a regional telemedicine platform in China, analyzes the consultation process, and provides references for the clinical application of telemedicine.

METHODS

We collected information on teleconsultations of cancer patients conducted from 2015 to 2022 through the regional telemedicine platform. Utilizing SPSS 23.0 software, we conducted descriptive analysis to summarize the distribution of patient gender, age, region, and disease types. The ordinal logistic regression analysis was adopted to analyze the factors influencing the waiting time and consultation duration for teleconsultations.

RESULTS

From 2015 to 2022, a total of 23,060 teleconsultations were conducted for cancer patients via regional telemedicine platform, with an average growth rate of 11.09%. The main types of consultations were for lung cancer, liver cancer, and breast cancer, accounting for 18.14%, 10.49%, and 9.46% respectively. 57.05% of teleconsultations had a waiting time of less than 24 h, while patient age, consultation expert level, and disease type were the main factors influencing the waiting time. 50.06% of teleconsultations had a duration of more than 20 min, and the inviting hospital level and the title of invited consultant were the main factors influencing the consultation duration.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, telemedicine has been widely employed in the clinical diagnosis and treatment of cancers, covering various types of oncological diseases. However, the waiting time for teleconsultations was generally more than 12 h, indicating the need to enhance consultation scheduling and allocate more expert resources to further optimize the efficiency of teleconsultations. Additionally, further exploration is required for remote health management of outpatients with cancers outside the hospital.

Pancreatic cancer mortality trends attributable to high fasting blood sugar over the period 1990-2019 and projections up to 2040

Background

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a prevalent malignancy within the digestive system, with diabetes recognized as one of its well-established risk factors.

Methods

Data on PC mortality attributed to high fasting blood sugar were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 online database. To assess the temporal trends of PC burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) between 1990 and 2019 were determined using a generalized linear model. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using the integrated nested Laplacian approximation algorithm was employed to project the disease burden over the next 20 years.

Results

Globally, the crude death number of PC attributable to HFPG almost tripled (from 13,065.7 in 1990 to 48,358.5 in 2019) from 1990 to 2019, and the ASDR increased from 0.36/100,000 to 0.61/100,000 with an EAPC of 2.04 (95% CI 1.91-2.16). The population aged ≥70 years accounted for nearly 60% of total deaths in 2019 and experienced a more significant increase, with the death number increasing approximately fourfold and the ASDR increasing annually by 2.65%. In regions with different sociodemographic indexes (SDIs), the highest disease burden was observed in the high-SDI region, whereas more pronounced increasing trends in ASDR were observed in the low to middle-SDI, low-SDI, and middle-SDI regions. Additionally, a significantly negative association was found between EAPCs and ASDRs of PC attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2019. Moreover, the BAPC model predicts that ASDR and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate for PC attributed to HFPG was projected to increase obviously for men and women from 2019 to 2040.

Conclusions

The burden of PC attributed to HFPG has increased globally over the past three decades, with the elderly population and high-SDI regions carrying a relatively greater disease burden, but more adverse trends observed in low-SDI areas. Furthermore, the burden is projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years. Hence, more tailored prevention methodologies should be established to mitigate this increasing trend.