Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

Global trends in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology: implications for screening, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates are increasing globally, and particularly in the Western world. Cirrhosis remains the predominant risk factor for HCC. However, epidemiological shifts in the incidence of HCC from patients with virus-related liver disease to those with non-viral aetiologies, including alcohol-associated and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, have important implications for prevention, surveillance and treatment. Hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapy for hepatitis B and C are effective for primary prevention of virus-related HCCs, but chemoprevention strategies for non-viral liver disease remain an unmet need. Emerging data suggest associations between aspirin, statins, metformin and coffee and reduced HCC incidence, although none has been proved to be causally related. Secondary prevention of HCC via semi-annual surveillance is associated with improvements in early detection and thus reduced mortality; however, current tools, including abdominal ultrasonography, have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of early stage HCC, particularly in patients with obesity and/or non-viral liver disease. Promising blood-based or imaging-based surveillance strategies are emerging, although these approaches require further validation before adoption in clinical practice. In the interim, efforts should be focused on maximizing use of the existing surveillance tools given their prevalent underuse globally. Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of HCC, including expanded eligibility for surgical therapies, improved patient selection for locoregional treatments and increased systemic treatment options, including immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we discuss trends in the epidemiology of HCC and their implications for screening, prevention and therapy.

The effect of hepatitis C-associated premature deaths on labour productivity losses in Spain: a ten-year analysis

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection causes a substantial economic burden, not only in terms of healthcare costs, but also in labour productivity losses. The main objective of this study is to provide objective and comparable information about the trend in labour productivity losses caused by premature HCV-associated deaths in Spain in recent years (2009-2018). We used nationwide data from several official sources to create a simulation model based on the human capital approach and to estimate the flows in labour productivity losses due to deaths identified in the period considered. Based on a pessimistic scenario, the annual number of deaths due to HCV infections decreased by 19.7% between 2009 and 2018. The years of potential labour productive life lost (YPLPLL) decreased by 38.1%. That reduction led to a decrease in annual labour productivity losses from €236 million in 2009 to €156 million in 2018 (-33.8%). The aggregate HCV-related labour productivity losses between 2009 and 2018 ranged from €1742 million (optimistic scenario) to €1949 million (pessimistic scenario), with an intermediate estimation of €1846 million (moderately optimistic scenario). These results show a substantial reduction in annual deaths, working-age deaths, YPLPLL, and labour productivity losses associated with HCV infection over this period.

Country-Wide HCV Elimination Strategies Need to Reach Older Patients in the General Population: The Italian Experience

HCV infection is still a major burden worldwide, and most countries are not on track to meet the WHO 2030 elimination goal. The current challenge is to identify individuals to be treated. In this study, we will describe the trend of new DAA prescriptions and the changes over time in terms of the characteristics of patients starting antiviral therapy in our unit. Data of 1646 hepatitis C patients who started therapy during the period of 2015-2022 regarding annual number of prescriptions, age, gender, nationality, HCV genotype, provenance, and liver disease severity were analyzed. We observed a peak in the number of new prescriptions in 2018 and a downward trend starting in 2019. Patients from the general population, centers for addictions, and prison differed significantly. The mean age in the general population remained above 60 years, the percentage of patients from centers for addictions and prison increased and, after 2016, there was no significant change in the percentage of patients with F3-F4 fibrosis. As HCV screening and linkage-to-care pathways seem to be already well implemented and successful in centers for addictions and in prisons, efforts need to be focused on those of older age in the general population. To carry this out, the more structured involvement of different health professionals must be figured out.

Noninvasive Fibrosis Assessment in Chronic Hepatitis C Infection: An Update

Liver biopsy is historically the gold standard for liver fibrosis assessment of chronic hepatitis C patients. However, with the introduction and validation of noninvasive tests (NITs) to evaluate advanced fibrosis, and the direct-acting antiviral agents for treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV), the role of NITs have become even more complex. There is now need for longitudinal monitoring and elucidation of cutoff values for prediction of liver-related complication after sustained virological response. The aim of this report is to provide a critical overview of the various NITs available for the assessment of liver fibrosis in HCV patients.

Development and validation of a liquid chromatographic-tandem mass spectrometric assay for the quantification of the direct acting antivirals glecaprevir and pibrentasvir in plasma

BACKGROUND

Direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are effective in the treatment and management of chronic HCV infections. Glecaprevir (GLE) and pibrentasvir (PIB) are pangenotypic DAAs that are delivered alone or as a fixed-dose oral formulation to treat chronic HCV infections with or without cirrhosis. Sensitive and dynamic bioanalytical assays are needed to understand the pharmacology of GLE and PIB.

METHODS

Drug free K2EDTA plasma was spiked with GLE, PIB, and their internal standards. Drugs were extracted from plasma via protein precipitation, and subsequently quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The method was validated according to regulatory recommendations, and evaluated in remnant plasma samples from individuals prescribed GLE and PIB.

RESULTS

The analytical measuring ranges for GLE and PIB were 0.25-2000 ng/mL and 0.25-1000 ng/mL, respectively. The method showed acceptable accuracy and precision for both DAAs. GLE and PIB in plasma were stable following six freeze thaw cycles and at room temperature for up to 67 h. All analytes were stable in whole blood incubated at room temperature for 24 h, and at 40 °C and 100% humidity for 2 h. Negligible percent matrix effects were observed for PIB and PIB-IS across the measuring range of the assay. Significant ion suppression was observed for GLE, with an average matrix effects of 27.9%. However, relative matrix effects were < 6.3% between drug and internal standard, and deemed acceptable. Assay validation assessments in alternative matrices also met acceptance criteria. Both DAAs were successfully measured in remnant plasma samples from individuals administered GLE and PIB.

CONCLUSIONS

An LC-MS/MS method for GLE and PIB quantification in plasma has been developed and validated. The assay met acceptable performance criteria and may be used in downstream applications to characterize DAA pharmacology for HCV treatment.

Impact of COVID-19 on epidemic trend of hepatitis C in Henan Province assessed by interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis C presents a profound global health challenge. The impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C, however, remain uncertain. This study aimed to ascertain the influence of COVID-19 on the hepatitis C epidemic trend in Henan Province.

METHODS

We collated the number of monthly diagnosed cases in Henan Province from January 2013 to September 2022. Upon detailing the overarching epidemiological characteristics, the interrupted time series (ITS) analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was employed to estimate the hepatitis C diagnosis rate pre and post the COVID-19 emergence. In addition, we also discussed the model selection process, test model fitting, and result interpretation.

RESULTS

Between January 2013 and September 2022, a total of 267,968 hepatitis C cases were diagnosed. The yearly average diagnosis rate stood at 2.42/100,000 persons. While 2013 witnessed the peak diagnosis rate at 2.97/100,000 persons, 2020 reported the least at 1.7/100,000 persons. The monthly mean hepatitis C diagnosed numbers culminated in 2291 cases. The optimal ARIMA model chosen was ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 with AIC = 1459.58, AICc = 1460.19, and BIC = 1472.8; having coefficients MA1=-0.62 (t=-8.06, P < 0.001) and SMA1=-0.79 (t=-6.76, P < 0.001). The final model's projected step change was - 800.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] -1179.9 ~ -420.1, P < 0.05) and pulse change was 463.40 (95% CI 191.7 ~ 735.1, P < 0.05) per month.

CONCLUSION

The measures undertaken to curtail COVID-19 led to a diminishing trend in the diagnosis rate of hepatitis C. The ARIMA model is a useful tool for evaluating the impact of large-scale interventions, because it can explain potential trends, autocorrelation, and seasonality, and allow for flexible modeling of different types of impacts.

Pharmacokinetics, Tolerability, and Safety of Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir Co-formulated Bilayer Tablet Following Repeated Administration in Healthy Chinese Adults

Glecaprevir (GLE)/pibrentasvir (PIB) is an all-oral, interferon- and ribavirin-free, pan-genotypic fixed-dose combination regimen approved for the treatment of all major genotypes of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in many countries worldwide. To support clinical development in China, an open-label, single-center phase 1 study was conducted to evaluate the pharmacokinetics, safety, and tolerability of GLE/PIB in healthy Chinese adults in Mainland China. Eighteen participants received 3 tablets of coformulated GLE/PIB 100/40 mg once daily (QD) for 7 days. Following GLE/PIB 300 mg/120 mg administration, GLE and PIB reached maximum concentration in 4-5 hours with a terminal elimination half-life of 5.9 and 25 hours, respectively. Both GLE and PIB reached steady state by day 5, with no-to-minimal accumulation (≤17% higher). GLE/PIB exposures in healthy Chinese participants were similar to historical observations across phase 1 studies in healthy Western participants. GLE/PIB was safe and well-tolerated, with most adverse events being mild. These pharmacokinetics and safety data, together with existing global efficacy and safety data in healthy and HCV-infected Western participants, support the use of GLE/PIB 300 mg/120 mg QD in adult Chinese patients with chronic HCV infection.

Artificial intelligence-based prediction of molecular and genetic markers for hepatitis C-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the main cause of mortality from cancer globally. This paper intends to classify public gene expression data of patients with Hepatitis C virus-related HCC (HCV+HCC) and chronic HCV without HCC (HCV alone) through the XGboost approach and to identify key genes that may be responsible for HCC.

Methods

The current research is a retrospective case-control study. Public data from 17 patients with HCV+HCC and 35 patients with HCV-alone samples were used in this study. An XGboost model was established for the classification by 10-fold cross-validation. Accuracy (AC), balanced accuracy (BAC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score were utilized for performance assessment.

Results

AC, BAC, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 scores from the XGboost model were 98.1, 97.1, 100, 94.1, 97.2, 100, and 98.6%, respectively. According to the variable importance values from the XGboost, the HAO2, TOMM20, GPC3, and PSMB4 genes can be considered potential biomarkers for HCV-related HCC.

Conclusion

A machine learning-based prediction method discovered genes that potentially serve as biomarkers for HCV-related HCC. After clinical confirmation of the acquired genes in the following medical study, their therapeutic use can be established. Additionally, more detailed clinical works are needed to substantiate the significant conclusions in the current study.

Exploring Knowledge and Awareness of HCV Infection and Screening Test: A Cross-Sectional Survey Among an Italian Sample

Addressing HCV represents a public health priority, especially in Italy, which has the highest HCV prevalence in Europe. This study primarily aimed to explore knowledge about the HCV infection and awareness of the existence of the HCV screening test in Italy, before the implementation of awareness campaigns in 2022. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted (December 2021-January 2022). The primary outcomes were: Disease Knowledge Score (DKS), Prevention and Transmission Knowledge Score (PTKS) (for both: scoring from 0 to 100%, higher scores corresponded to higher knowledge), and being unaware of the existence of the HCV screening. The final sample consisted of 813 participants. The median DKS was 75% (IQR = 66.7-83.3), the median PTKS was 46.2% (IQR = 38.5-53.8), and 23.2% of participants were unaware of HCV screening. Higher education, health-related study or profession, history of accidental injuries, being affected by HCV and having actively searched for information on HCV had positive associations with DKS. LGBT males showed significantly lower DKS. Considering PTKS, participants affected by HCV the disease had a negative association with this score. Having a postgraduate education reduced the likelihood of not knowing about the HCV screening test, while having at least one family member affected by hepatitis C increased this probability. This study highlighted a concerning lack of knowledge about prevention and transmission, indicating a need for targeted education campaigns. The findings emphasized the importance of information and motivation and identified male LGBT + individuals as a vulnerable group with limited disease knowledge. Future research should concern the effectiveness of awareness campaigns.

Epidemiological Modeling of the Impact of Public Health Policies on Hepatitis C: Protocol for a Gamification Tool Targeting Microelimination

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C is a disease with a strong social component, as its main transmission route is via blood, making it associated with lifestyle. Therefore, it is suitable to be worked on from the perspective of public health policy, which still has a lot of room to explore and improve, contrary to diagnoses and treatments, which are already very refined and effective.

OBJECTIVE

An interactive gamified policy tool, designated as Let's End HepC (LEHC), was created to understand the impact of policies related to hepatitis C on the disease's epidemiology on a yearly basis until 2030.

METHODS

To this end, an innovative epidemiological model was developed, integrating Markov chains to model the natural history of the disease and adaptive conjoint analysis to reflect the degree of application of each of the 24 public health policies included in the model. This double imputation model makes it possible to assess a set of indicators such as liver transplant, incidence, and deaths year by year until 2030 in different risk groups. Populations at a higher risk were integrated into the model to understand the specific epidemiological dynamics within the total population of each country and within segments that comprise people who have received blood products, prisoners, people who inject drugs, people infected through vertical transmission, and the remaining population.

RESULTS

The model has already been applied to a group of countries, and studies in 5 of these countries have already been concluded, showing results very close to those obtained through other forms of evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

The LEHC model allows the simulation of different degrees of implementation of each policy and thus the verification of its epidemiological impact on each studied population. The gamification feature allows assessing the adequate fulfillment of the World Health Organization goals for the elimination of hepatitis C by 2030. LEHC supports health decision makers and people who practice patient advocacy in making decisions based on science, and because LEHC is democratically shared, it ends up contributing to the increase of citizenship in health.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

RR1-10.2196/38521.

Hepatitis C

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a hepatotropic RNA virus that can cause acute and chronic hepatitis, with progressive liver damage resulting in cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma. In 2016, WHO called for the elimination of HCV infection as a public health threat by 2030. Despite some progress, an estimated 57 million people were living with HCV infection in 2020, and 300 000 HCV-related deaths occur per year. The development of direct-acting antiviral therapy has revolutionised clinical care and generated impetus for elimination, but simplified and broadened HCV screening, enhanced linkage to care, and higher coverage of treatment and primary prevention strategies are urgently required.

Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030.

METHODS

This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050. Model outcomes included temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and total cost of care, including screening and treatment. We evaluated scenarios that could eliminate HCV by 2030.

RESULTS

Multiple strategies could lead to HCV elimination in Moldova by 2030. A realistic scenario of a 20% annual screening and 80% treatment rate would require 2.75 million individuals to be screened and 65 000 treated by 2030. Compared to 2015, this program will reduce HCV incidence by 98% and HCV-related deaths by 72% in 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, this strategy would cost $17.5 million for HCV screening and treatment. However, by 2050, the health system would save >$85 million compared to no investment in elimination efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV elimination in Moldova is feasible and can be cost saving, but requires resources to scale HCV screening and treatment.

Creating a Longitudinal HCV Care Cascade for Persons With HIV/HCV Coinfection in Selected HIV Clinics Using Data to Care Methods

Highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for hepatitis C have led to strategic goals promoting hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure particularly in focus populations including persons with HIV/HCV coinfection. Implementing treatment more broadly requires both clinic-level and public health approaches such as those inherent in Data to Care (D2C) originally developed to improve the treatment cascade for persons with HIV (PWH). We used D2C methods to characterize and improve HCV treatment for persons with HIV/HCV coinfection among 11 HIV clinics in Connecticut cities with high PWH prevalence. Providers who were local champions in HCV treatment were recruited to participate along with clinic data staff and were key to quality improvement via practice transformation. We developed a methodology whereby clinic-generated lists of PWH receiving care from 2009 to 2018 were matched by CT Department of Public Health (DPH) against the state-wide HCV surveillance system. The resultant coinfection list was reviewed by clinical staff who designated HCV treatment status, enabling creation of individual clinic-level HCV treatment cascades. Data from DPH, especially current residency and deaths, enabled better characterization and allowed for refinement of longitudinal cascades. There were 1,496 patients with HIV/HCV coinfection. Sustained virologic response (SVR) rates varied by clinic (range, 44%-100%) with an aggregate SVR rate of 71% in September 2020. SVR rates improved during the project through a combination of increased treatment initiation/completion as well as data clean-up including serial updates of patient treatment status. Lack of treatment initiation was associated with being female (odds ratio [OR] = 2.18) and not having HIV viral suppression (OR = 3.24).

Estimating the impact of a police education program on hepatitis C virus transmission and disease burden among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico: A dynamic modeling analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Criminalization of drug use and punitive policing are key structural drivers of hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk among people who inject drugs (PWID). A police education program (Proyecto Escudo) delivering training on occupational safety together with drug law content was implemented between 2015 and 2016 in Tijuana, Mexico, to underpin drug law reform implementation. We used data from a longitudinal cohort of PWID in Tijuana to inform epidemic modeling and assess the long-term impact of Escudo on HCV transmission and burden among PWID in Tijuana.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic, compartmental model of HCV transmission and incarceration among PWID and tracked liver disease progression among current and former PWID. The model was calibrated to data from Tijuana, Mexico, with 90% HCV seroprevalence. We used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact of Escudo on recent incarceration among an observational cohort of PWID. By simulating the observed incarceration trends, we estimated the potential impact of the implemented (2-year reduction in incarceration) and an extended (10-year reduction in incarceration) police education program over a 50-year follow-up (2016-2066) on HCV outcomes (incidence, cirrhosis, HCV-related deaths and disability adjusted life-years averted) compared with no intervention.

RESULTS

Over the 2-year follow-up, Proyecto Escudo reduced HCV incidence among PWID from 21.5 per 100 person years (/100py) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 15.3-29.7/100py) in 2016 to 21.1/100py (UI = 15.0-29.1/100py) in 2018. If continued for 10 years, Escudo could reduce HCV incidence to 20.0/100py (14.0-27.8/100py) by 2026 and avert 186 (32-389) new infections, 76 (UI = 12-160) cases of cirrhosis and 32 (5-73) deaths per 10 000 PWID compared with no intervention over a 50-year time horizon.

CONCLUSIONS

In Tijuana, Mexico, implementation of a police education program delivering training on occupational safety and drug law content appears to have reduced hepatitis C virus incidence among people who inject drugs.

Multimodality imaging of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma are the two most common primary malignant tumors of the liver. The similarities and variations in imaging characteristics that may aid in distinguishing between these two primary tumors will be discussed and outlined in this review. Knowledge of imaging techniques that are currently available would assist in the differentiation between these primary malignancies.

Sexual and drug use risk behaviour trajectories among people treated for recent HCV infection: the REACT study

INTRODUCTION

Exploration of sexual and drug use behaviours following treatment for recent hepatitis C virus (HCV) is limited. This analysis modelled behavioural trajectories following treatment for recent HCV and assessed reinfection.

METHODS

Participants treated for recent HCV in an international trial (enrolled 2017-2019) were followed at 3-monthly intervals for up to 2 years to assess longitudinal behaviours. Population-averaged changes were assessed using generalized estimating equations. Distinct behavioural trajectories were identified using group-based trajectory modelling. HCV reinfection incidence was calculated using person-years (PY) of observation.

RESULTS

During the follow-up of 212 participants (84% gay and bisexual men [GBM]; 69% HIV; 26% current injecting drug use [IDU]), behavioural trajectories for IDU and stimulant use (past month) did not change. However, population-averaged decreases in the likelihood of daily IDU (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.83; 95% CI 0.72, 0.95) and opioid use (AOR 0.84; 95% CI 0.75, 0.93) were observed. Among GBM, behavioural trajectories for chemsex did not change. Population-averaged decreases in condomless anal intercourse with casual male partners (CAI-CMP) (AOR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90, 0.99) and group-sex (AOR 0.86; 95% CI 0.80, 0.93) were observed, but masked distinct trajectories. While a proportion had a decreased probability of CAI-CMP (23%) and group-sex (59%) post-treatment, a substantial proportion retained a high probability of these behaviours. High HCV reinfection incidence was observed for the sustained high probability IDU (33.0/100 PY; 95% CI 17.7, 61.3) and chemsex (23.3/100 PY; 95% CI 14.5, 37.5) trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Limited sexual and drug use behavioural change was observed following treatment for recent HCV, supporting access to surveillance and (re)treatment.

South Asian Transplant Infectious Disease Guidelines for Solid Organ Transplant Candidates, Recipients, and Donors

These guidelines discuss the epidemiology, screening, diagnosis, posttransplant prophylaxis, monitoring, and management of endemic infections in solid organ transplant (SOT) candidates, recipients, and donors in South Asia. The guidelines also provide recommendations for SOT recipients traveling to this region. These guidelines are based on literature review and expert opinion by transplant physicians, surgeons, and infectious diseases specialists, mostly from South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) as well as transplant experts from other countries. These guidelines cover relevant endemic bacterial infections (tuberculosis, leptospirosis, melioidosis, typhoid, scrub typhus), viral infections (hepatitis A, B, C, D, and E; rabies; and the arboviruses including dengue, chikungunya, Zika, Japanese encephalitis), endemic fungal infections (mucormycosis, histoplasmosis, talaromycosis, sporotrichosis), and endemic parasitic infections (malaria, leishmaniasis, toxoplasmosis, cryptosporidiosis, strongyloidiasis, and filariasis) as well as travelers' diarrhea and vaccination for SOT candidates and recipients including travelers visiting this region. These guidelines are intended to be an overview of each topic; more detailed reviews are being published as a special supplement in the Indian Journal of Transplantation .

Seroprevalence of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in North Korean Defectors Residing in Korea

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence rate of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and identify the demographic, and sociological characteristics and changes in awareness of HCV infection by participating the study for North Korean defectors residing in South Korea.

METHODS

This study prospectively enrolled participants. Demographic, sociological and clinical data, and questionnaire surveys focused on awareness of HCV infection were collected.

RESULTS

In total, 211 North Korean defectors participated in this study from September 2020 until June 2021. There were 174 women (82.5%), and the overall mean age was 48.9 years (range, 20 to 80 years). Of these participants, 112 (53.1%) had immigrated to South Korea since 2011. The overall prevalence of anti-HCV antibody among North Korean defectors was 1.9%. Thirty participants (14.2%) had hepatitis B surface antigens. A huge lack of awareness regarding HCV infection has been observed among North Korean defectors.

CONCLUSION

This is the first prospective study to investigate the prevalence rate of HCV infection among North Korean defectors residing in South Korea. As North Korean defectors are a vulnerable group concerning HCV infection, they may benefit from HCV screening policies and educational interventions for HCV infection.

The Cyclophilin Inhibitor Rencofilstat Decreases HCV-induced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Independently of Its Antiviral Activity

There is an urgent need for the identification of new drugs that inhibit HCV-induced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our work demonstrates that cyclophilin inhibitors (CypI) represent such new drugs. We demonstrated that the non-immunosuppressive cyclosporine A (CsA) analog (CsAa) rencofilstat possesses dual therapeutic activities for the treatment of HCV infection and HCV-induced HCC. Specifically, we showed that HCV infection of humanized mice results in the progressive development of HCC. This was true for four genotypes tested (1 to 4). Remarkably, we demonstrated that rencofilstat inhibits the development of HCV-induced HCC in mice even when added 16 weeks post-infection when HCC is well established. Importantly, we showed that rencofilstat drastically reduces HCC progression independently of its anti-HCV activity. Indeed, the CypI rencofilstat inhibits HCC while other anti-HCV agents such as NS5A (NS5Ai) and NS5B (NS5Bi) fail to reduce HCC. In conclusion, this study shows for the first time that the CypI rencofilstat represents a potent therapeutic agent for the treatment of HCV-induced HCC.

Identification of the Genotypes Circulating in the Ecuadorian Population Infected with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV)

INTRODUCTION

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) is responsible for 1.5 million new infections, and around 290 thousand deaths worldwide. 15 to 30% of the patients that go into a chronic phase of the disease will develop cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma within 20 years and is the leading etiology for liver transplantation. HCV genetic characteristics display a remarkable genetic diversity, which divides HCV into 8 genotypes and 67 subgenotypes; the treatment and probability of chronic HCV depend on these genotypes and subgenotypes. In Ecuador, there is no available information regarding HCV genotypes and subgenotypes; therefore, this study aims to provide an overview of the main genotypes circulating in Ecuador.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional and descriptive study using the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health (MSP) registry of patients already diagnosed with Hepatitis C (HCV) between 2017 and 2019. From 51 patients identified by health ministry, blood samples from a total of 15 subjects (named HCV1 to HCV15) were collected using an appropriate venipuncture technique. Pandemic-related circumstances avoid reaching all patients identified by health ministry.

RESULTS

After the amplification of 11 samples from patients living in the Ecuadorian territory, the genotypes of HCV obtained were distributed as follows: 6 samples corresponding to subgenotype 2b (54.5%), 2 samples corresponding to subgenotype 1a (18.2%), 2 samples corresponding to subgenotype 4d (18.2%) and 1 corresponding to sample 1b (9.1%).

CONCLUSION

These results represent the first epidemiological approach to genotype distribution in Ecuador, and it contributes to better management of patients. We emphasize the importance of the development of better strategies from the Healthcare Ministry of Ecuador (MSP) for the identification, treatment and tracking of HCV patients.

Virological characterization of treatment failures and retreatment outcomes in patients infected with "unusual" HCV genotype 1 subtypes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Suboptimal rates of sustained virological response have been reported in patients infected with an "unusual," non-1a/1b HCV genotype 1 subtype. The objectives of this study were to assess the proportion of non-1a/1b genotype 1 subtypes in a population of HCV-infected patients who failed to achieve sustained virological response after first-line direct-acting antiviral treatment, to virologically characterize their failures and to assess their outcomes on retreatment.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Samples addressed between January 2015 and December 2021 to the French National Reference Center for Viral Hepatitis B, C, and D were prospectively analyzed by means of Sanger and deep sequencing. Among 640 failures, 47 (7.3%) occurred in patients infected with an "unusual" genotype 1 subtype. Samples were available in 43 of them; 92.5% of these patients were born in Africa. Our results show the presence at baseline and at treatment failure of NS3 protease and/or NS5A polymorphisms conferring inherent reduced susceptibility to direct-acting antivirals in these patients, together with the presence at failure of additional resistance-associated substitutions not naturally present as dominant species, but jointly selected by first-line therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients infected with "unusual" HCV genotype 1 subtypes are over-represented among direct-acting antiviral treatment failures. Most of them were born and likely infected in sub-Saharan Africa. "Unusual" HCV genotype 1 subtypes naturally carry polymorphisms that confer reduced susceptibility to the drugs currently used to cure hepatitis C, in particular the NS5A inhibitors. Retreatment with sofosbuvir plus an NS3 protease and an NS5A inhibitor is generally efficacious.

Neuropsychiatric disorders in chronic hepatitis C patients after receiving interferon or direct-acting antivirals: a nationwide cohort study

Background: Data on the neuropsychological outcomes after receiving direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) among chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients have not been well-documented. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the difference in incidence of neuropsychological disorders (NPDs) after treatment completion between CHC patients receiving interferon (IFN) therapy and DAA therapy. Methods: A nationwide retrospective cohort study was performed using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) between 2010 and 2018. CHC patients without pre-existing mental disorders were included and divided into the treatment (Tx)-naïve DAA group, retreatment (re-Tx) DAA group, and Tx-naïve IFN group based on their HCV therapy. Propensity score matching was used to balance baseline differences between groups. The primary outcome was the incidence of NPDs during 6 months after completion of therapy. Results: After one-to-one matching, there were 6,461 pairs of patients selected from the Tx-naïve DAA group and Tx-naïve IFN group and 3,792 pairs from the re-Tx DAA group and Tx-naïve IFN group. A lower incidence of NPDs was observed in the Tx-naïve DAA group than in the Tx-naïve IFN group (HR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.55-0.94, and p = 0.017). The risk of NPDs did not differ between the re-Tx DAA group and the Tx-naïve IFN group (HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.52-1.05, and p = 0.092). Conclusion: DAA therapy was associated with lower risk of NPDs when compared with IFN therapy among Tx-naïve CHC patients in a 6-month period after treatment completion, especially among the patients less than 65 years, male gender, and cirrhosis.

A paradigm shift in non-viral liver cirrhosis: a multicenter study on clinicoepidemiological characteristics and outcome of non-B non-C cirrhosis

Background

Chronic hepatitis C (HCV) and B viruses (HBV) represent the commonest global causes of liver cirrhosis. Other etiologies of non-viral cirrhosis such as autoimmune, metabolic, vascular, or biliary diseases are underestimated. The study aimed to identify causes, clinicoepidemiological characteristics, and outcome of non-B non-C liver cirrhosis. This Egyptian multicenter study recruited patients with liver cirrhosis excluding HCV and HBV. Clinical evaluation and the mortality were recorded. Laboratory, radiological, and histopathological assessment to diagnose the etiology was performed.

Results

One hundred eighty-eight patients were included: 54.3% were males. Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) was the most common cause of cirrhosis (28.2%), followed by Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) in 25%, and cryptogenic in 23.9%. Metabolic causes such as Wilson’s disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and hemochromatosis were reported in 7.4%, 3.2%, and 1.1%, respectively. Biliary and cardiac cirrhosis were less frequent. Older age was prevalent in hemochromatosis (67.5 ± 17.7 years) and NASH (60.7 ± 11), while young age in Wilson’s disease (29.5 ± 14.8) and secondary biliary cirrhosis (14.8 ± 4.8). Rural residence was common (60.6%). Mortality was reported in BCS (40.4%), cryptogenic (28.9%), cardiac (25%), Wilson’s disease (21.4%), AIH (17%), and NASH (16.7%). Hepatocellular carcinoma complicated 10.6% of cases. A significantly high percentage of patients had decompensated cirrhosis. Child–Pugh class and rural residence were significant predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

This first report on non-B non-C cirrhosis in Egypt revealed a high prevalence of AIH, BCS, and cryptogenic cirrhosis. Advanced Child class and rural residence were the predictors of mortality.

Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C virus genotypes in different geographical regions of Chinese mainland and a phylogenetic analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a major public health problem in Chinese mainland. Investigation of the distribution of genotypes contributed to the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of HCV infection. Therefore, we conducted a study on the distribution of HCV genotypes and phylogenetic analysis to provide an up-to-date understanding of the molecular epidemiology of genotypes in Chinese mainland.

METHODS

Our retrospective multicenter study enrolled 11,008 samples collected between August 2018 and July 2019 from 29 provinces/municipalities (Beijing, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Tianjin, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Jilin Liaoning, Henan, Hubei Hunan, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shandong, Shanghai Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Sichuan and Yunnan). Phylogenetic analysis of each subtype was performed to infer the evolutionary relationship of sequences from diverse regions. Two independent samples t tests were used for the comparison of continuous variables, and chi-square tests were used for the comparison of categorical variables.

RESULTS

Four genotypes (1, 2, 3 and 6) were found, including 14 subtypes. HCV genotype 1 was dominant, accounting for 49.2%, followed by genotypes 2, 3 and 6, accounting for 22.4%, 16.4%, and 11.9%, respectively. Additionally, the top five subtypes were 1b, 2a, 3b, 6a and 3a. Proportions of genotypes 1 and 2 decreased while genotypes 3 and 6 increased over past years (P < 0.001). Genotypes 3 and 6 were concentrated in the population aged 30 to 50 years, and male carriers had lower proportions of subtypes 1b and 2a than female carriers (P < 0.01). Genotypes 3 and 6 were more prevalent in southern parts of Chinese mainland. Nationwide spreads of subtypes 1b and 2a were associated with sequences from northern parts of Chinese mainland, while subtypes 3a, 3b and 6a were associated with sequences from southern parts of Chinese mainland.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV subtypes 1b and 2a remained the most common subtypes in Chinese mainland, and their proportions decreased over the past years, while the proportions of genotypes 3 and 6 increased. Our investigation provided an accurate epidemiological picture of the circulating viral strains in Chinese mainland, contributing to the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of HCV infection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

Hepatitis C Virus in people with experience of injection drug use following their displacement to Southern Ukraine before 2020

BACKGROUND

Due to practical challenges associated with genetic sequencing in low-resource environments, the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in forcibly displaced people is understudied. We examined the use of field applicable HCV sequencing methods and phylogenetic analysis to determine HCV transmission dynamics in internally displaced people who inject drugs (IDPWID) in Ukraine.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we used modified respondent-driven sampling to recruit IDPWID who were displaced to Odesa, Ukraine, before 2020. We generated partial and near full length genome (NFLG) HCV sequences using Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT) MinION in a simulated field environment. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to establish phylodynamic relationships.

RESULTS

Between June and September 2020, we collected epidemiological data and whole blood samples from 164 IDPWID (PNAS Nexus.2023;2(3):pgad008). Rapid testing (Wondfo® One Step HCV; Wondfo® One Step HIV1/2) identified an anti-HCV seroprevalence of 67.7%, and 31.1% of participants tested positive for both anti-HCV and HIV. We generated 57 partial or NFLG HCV sequences and identified eight transmission clusters, of which at least two originated within a year and a half post-displacement.

CONCLUSIONS

Locally generated genomic data and phylogenetic analysis in rapidly changing low-resource environments, such as those faced by forcibly displaced people, can help inform effective public health strategies. For example, evidence of HCV transmission clusters originating soon after displacement highlights the importance of implementing urgent preventive interventions in ongoing situations of forced displacement.

Insights from a national survey in 2021 and from modelling on progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in the country of Georgia since 2015

BackgroundBetween May 2015 and February 2022, 77,168 hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected people in Georgia have been treated through an HCV elimination programme. To project the programme's long-term impacts, an HCV infection model was initially developed, based on data from surveys among people who inject drugs and a national serosurvey in 2015.AimAccounting for follow-up surveys in 2021, we validate and update projections of HCV infection prevalence and incidence.MethodWe assessed the initial model projections' accuracy for overall prevalence, by age, sex, and among people who ever injected drugs, compared with 2021 serosurvey data. We used 2021 results to weight model fits and to recalculate the national programme's impact leading up to March 2022 on HCV infection incidence rates. Cases and deaths averted were estimated. The impact of reduced treatment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic was assessed.ResultsThe original model overpredicted adult (≥ 18 years old) chronic HCV infection prevalence for 2021 (2.7%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.9-3.5%) compared with a 2021 serosurvey (1.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.4%). Weighted model projections estimated a 60% decrease in HCV infection incidence by March 2022, with an absolute incidence of 66 (95% CrI: 34-131) per 100,000 person-years (overall population). Between May 2015 and March 2022, 9,186 (95% CrI: 5,396-16,720) infections and 842 (95% CrI: 489-1,324) deaths were averted. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 13,344 (95% CrI: 13,236-13,437) fewer treatments and 438 (95% CrI: 223-744) fewer averted infections by March 2022.ConclusionResults support the programme's high effectiveness. At current treatment rate (406/month), 90% reductions in prevalence and incidence in Georgia are achievable by 2030.

Biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in the REVEAL-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohort studies

Gut barrier dysfunction can result in the liver being exposed to an elevated level of gut-derived bacterial products via portal circulation. Growing evidence suggests that systemic exposure to these bacterial products promotes liver diseases including hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prospective studies have not examined the association between biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and HCC risk in a population of hepatitis B or C viral (HBV/HCV) carriers. We investigated whether prediagnostic, circulating biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction were associated with HCC risk, using the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohorts from Taiwan. REVEAL-HBV included 185 cases and 161 matched controls, and REVEAL-HCV 96 cases and 96 matched controls. The biomarkers quantitated were immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG, and IgM against lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and flagellin, soluble CD14 (an LPS coreceptor), and LPS-binding protein (LBP). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between biomarker levels and HCC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. A doubling of the circulating levels of antiflagellin IgA or LBP was associated with a 76% to 93% increased risk of HBV-related HCC (OR per one unit change in log2 antiflagellin IgA = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.06-2.93; OR for LBP = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.10-3.38). None of the other markers were associated with an increased risk of HBV-related or HCV-related HCC. Results were similar when cases diagnosed in the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Our findings contribute to understanding the interplay of gut barrier dysfunction and primary liver cancer etiology.

Annual trends of hepatitis C virus infection in Manitoba between 1998 and 2018: A focus on special populations

Background

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. Epidemiological data of HCV infection in the Canadian province of Manitoba are limited.

Methods

A population-based retrospective study was conducted using data from the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy repository. Using the test results provided by the Cadham provincial laboratory, individuals in Manitoba with a diagnosis of HCV infection were identified. Annual prevalence and incidence rates (crude and standardized) were calculated for the overall population and stratified by sex, regional health authority (RHA), residence area, income quintile, and special population groups (children, older adults, and pregnant persons).

Results

A total of 8,721 HCV cases were diagnosed between 1998 and 2018 in Manitoba. Overall crude HCV incidence and prevalence were estimated as 0.03% and 0.37% during the study period, respectively. No significant change was observed in the standardized HCV incidence rate (per 100,000) during the study period (54.3 in 1998 and 54.8 in 2018). However, the standardized HCV prevalence (per 100,000) increased from 52.5 (95% CI 39.2-68.7) in 1998 to 655.2 (95% CI 605.9-707.3) in 2018. An overall average incidence rate based on sex, RHA, region, income, and special population groups was observed to be higher in males (40.1), Winnipeg RHA (42.7), urban region (42.3), low-income quintiles (78.5), and pregnant persons (94.3), respectively.

Conclusion

Although incidence rates of HCV infection in Manitoba appeared to have initially declined, rates showed an upward trend by the end of the study period while prevalence increased steadily.

Impacts of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme for viral hepatitis C: A cost-effectiveness model

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Egypt used to have one of the highest prevalences of HCV infection worldwide. The Egyptian Ministry of Health launched a national campaign for the detection and management of HCV to reduce its burden. This study aims to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the costs and benefits of the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme.

METHODS

A disease burden and economic impact model was populated with the Egyptian national screening and treatment programme data to assess direct medical costs, health effects measured in disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The scenario was compared to a historical base case, which assumed that no programme had been conducted.

RESULTS

Total number of viremic cases is expected to decrease in 2030 by 86% under the national screening and treatment programme, versus by 41% under the historical base case. Annual discounted direct medical costs are expected to decrease from $178 million in 2018 to $81 million by 2030 under the historical base case, while annual direct medical costs are estimated to have peaked in 2019 at $312 million before declining to $55 million by 2030 under the national screening and treatment programme. Under the programme, annual disability-adjusted life years are expected to decline to 127 647 by 2030, leading to 883 333 cumulative disability-adjusted life years averted over 2018-2030.

CONCLUSIONS

The national screening and treatment programme is highly cost-effective by the year 2021, cost-saving by 2029 and expected to save about $35 million in direct costs and $4705 million in indirect costs by 2030.

Machine learning for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development after the eradication of hepatitis C virus with antivirals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Accurate risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) is necessary for optimal surveillance. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC after achieving an SVR in individual patients.

METHODS

In this multicenter cohort study, 1742 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved an SVR were enrolled. Five ML models were developed including DeepSurv, gradient boosting survival analysis, random survival forest (RSF), survival support vector machine, and a conventional Cox proportional hazard model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel' c-index and was externally validated in an independent cohort (977 patients).

RESULTS

During the mean observation period of 5.4 years, 122 patients developed HCC (83 in the derivation cohort and 39 in the external validation cohort). The RSF model showed the best discrimination ability using seven parameters at the achievement of an SVR with a c-index of 0.839 in the external validation cohort and a high discriminative ability when the patients were categorized into three risk groups (P <0.001). Furthermore, this RSF model enabled the generation of an individualized predictive curve for HCC occurrence for each patient with an app available online.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and externally validated an RSF model with good predictive performance for the risk of HCC after an SVR. The application of this novel model is available on the website. This model could provide the data to consider an effective surveillance method. Further studies are needed to make recommendations for surveillance policies tailored to the medical situation in each country.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

A novel prediction model for HCC occurrence in patients after hepatitis C virus eradication was developed using machine learning algorithms. This model, using seven commonly measured parameters, has been shown to have a good predictive ability for HCC development and could provide a personalized surveillance system.

The growing burden of generalized myasthenia gravis: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Taiwan

Background

The prevalence of myasthenia gravis is increasing in many countries, including Asia. As treatment options expand, population-based information about the disease burden can inform health technology assessments.

Methods

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the Taiwan National Healthcare Insurance Research database and Death Registry to describe the epidemiology, disease burden and treatment patterns of generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) from 2009 to 2019. Episodes of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection or reactivation were explored.

Results

The number of patients with gMG increased from 1,576 in 2009 to 2,638 in 2019 and the mean (standard deviation) age from 51.63 (17.32) to 55.38 (16.29) years. The female:male ratio was 1.3:1. Frequently reported co-morbidities were hypertension (32-34% of patients), diabetes mellitus (16-21%) and malignancies (12-17%). The prevalence of patients with gMG increased annually from 6.83/100,000 population in 2009 to 11.18/100,000 population in 2019 (p < 0.0001). There was no temporal trend in all-cause fatality rates (range 2.76-3.79/100 patients annually) or gMG incidence rates (2.4-3.17/100,000 population annually). First-line treatment was with pyridostigmine (82%), steroids (58%), and azathioprine (11%). There was minimal change in treatment patterns over time. Among 147 new HBV infections, 32 (22%) received ≥4 weeks of antiviral therapy suggesting chronic infection. The HBV reactivation rate was 7.2%.

Conclusion

The epidemiology of gMG in Taiwan is evolving rapidly, with higher prevalence rates and increasing involvement of older age-groups suggesting a growing burden of disease and associated healthcare costs. HBV infection or reactivation may pose a previously unrecognized recognized risk for patients with gMG receiving immunosuppressants.

Enhanced Virus Translation Enables miR-122-Independent Hepatitis C Virus Propagation

The 5' untranslated region (UTR) of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) genome forms RNA structures that regulate virus replication and translation. The region contains an internal ribosomal entry site (IRES) and a 5'-terminal region. Binding of the liver-specific microRNA (miRNA) miR-122 to two binding sites in the 5'-terminal region regulates viral replication, translation, and genome stability and is essential for efficient virus replication, but its precise mechanism of action is still unresolved. A current hypothesis is that miR-122 binding stimulates viral translation by facilitating the viral 5' UTR to form the translationally active HCV IRES RNA structure. While miR-122 is essential for detectable replication of wild-type HCV genomes in cell culture, several viral variants with 5' UTR mutations exhibit low-level replication in the absence of miR-122. We show that HCV mutants capable of replicating independently of miR-122 display an enhanced translation phenotype that correlates with their ability to replicate independently of miR-122. Further, we provide evidence that translation regulation is the major role for miR-122 and show that miR-122-independent HCV replication can be rescued to miR-122-dependent levels by the combined impacts of 5' UTR mutations that stimulate translation and by stabilizing the viral genome by knockdown of host exonucleases and phosphatases that degrade the genome. Finally, we show that HCV mutants capable of replicating independently of miR-122 also replicate independently of other microRNAs generated by the canonical miRNA synthesis pathway. Thus, we provide a model suggesting that translation stimulation and genome stabilization are the primary roles for miR-122 in promoting HCV. IMPORTANCE The unusual and essential role of miR-122 in promoting HCV propagation is incompletely understood. To better understand its role, we have analyzed HCV mutants capable of replicating independently of miR-122. Our data show that the ability of viruses to replicate independently of miR-122 correlates with enhanced virus translation but that genome stabilization is required to restore efficient HCV replication. This suggests that viruses must gain both abilities to escape the need for miR-122 and impacts the possibility that HCV can evolve to replicate outside the liver.

Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035

BACKGROUND

Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends.

METHODS

Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035.

RESULTS

Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group.

CONCLUSION

Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.

Prevalence, risk factors, treatment uptake and treatment outcome of hepatitis C virus in people who inject drugs at the needle and syringe program in Uppsala, Sweden

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has set a goal to reach world elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030. Needle and syringe programs (NSP) for people who inject drugs (PWID) are crucial to achieve this goal. The NSP in Uppsala, Sweden, was opened in 2016 and has since 2018 provided HCV treatment for PWID. The aim of this study was to investigate HCV prevalence, risk factors and treatment uptake and outcome in NSP participants.

METHODS

Data from 450 PWID registered at the Uppsala NSP between 2016-11-01 and 2021-12-31 were collected from the national quality registry InfCare NSP. Data from the 101 PWID treated for HCV at the Uppsala NSP were collected through patient journal review. Descriptive and inferential analysis was performed. Ethical approval was obtained from the Ethical Review Board in Uppsala (dnr 2019/00215).

RESULTS

The mean age was 35 years. 75% were males (336/450), and 25% were females (114/450). The overall HCV prevalence was 48% (215/450) with a declining trend over time. Factors associated with a higher risk of HCV were older age at registration (OR 1.025, 95% CI 1.004-1.046), lower age at injection drug debut (OR 0.963, 95% CI 0.932-0.996), lower education level (OR 1.829, 95% CI 1.185-2.821) and higher number of total visits at the NSP (OR 1.005, 95% CI 1.001-1.009). The overall HCV treatment uptake was 47% (101/215), of which 77% (78/101) completed HCV treatment. The HCV treatment compliance was 88% (78/89). 99% (77/78) were cured with a sustained virologic response 12 weeks after completed treatment. The reinfection rate over the study period was 9/77 (11.7%); all were male with mean age of 36.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV prevalence, treatment uptake and treatment outcome have improved since the opening of the Uppsala NSP. However, further measures are needed to reach the HCV elimination goal. Outreach HCV treatment programs for PWID should be explored and evaluated in combination with further implementation of low-threshold programs.

Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Infection and Neurocognitive Impairment in Subjects with Mild Liver Disease

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths. It is estimated that 40-74% of patients with hepatitis C will experience at least one extrahepatic manifestation within their lifetime. The finding of HCV-RNA sequences in post-mortem brain tissue raises the possibility that HCV infection may affect the central nervous system and be the source of subtle neuropsychological symptoms, even in non-cirrhotic. Our investigation aimed to evaluate whether asymptomatic, HCV-infected subjects showed cognitive dysfunctions. Twenty-eight untreated asymptomatic HCV subjects and 18 healthy controls were tested using three neuropsychological instruments in a random sequence: Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT), and Continuous Visual Attention Test (CVAT). We performed depression screening, liver fibrosis assessment, blood tests, genotyping, and HCV-RNA viral load. A MANCOVA and univariate ANCOVAS were performed to examine group differences (HCV vs. healthy controls) in four scores of the CVAT (omission errors, commission errors, reaction time-RT, and variability of RT-VRT), and the scores derived from the SDMT, and the COWAT. A discriminant analysis was performed to identify which test variables effectively discriminate HCV-infected subjects from healthy controls. There were no group differences in the scores of the COWAT, SDMT, and in two variables of the CVAT (omission and commission errors). In contrast, the performance of the HCV group was poorer than the controls in RT (p = 0.047) and VRT (p = 0.046). The discriminant analysis further indicated that the RT was the most reliable variable to discriminate the two groups with an accuracy of 71.7%. The higher RT exhibited by the HCV group may reflect deficits in the intrinsic-alertness attention subdomain. As the RT variable was found to be the best discriminator between HCV patients and controls, we suggest that intrinsic-alertness deficits in HCV patients may affect the stability of response times increasing VRT and leading to significant lapses in attention. In conclusion, HCV subjects with mild disease showed deficits in RT and intraindividual VRT as compared to healthy controls.

Accessing hepatitis C direct acting antivirals among people living with hepatitis C: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C is curable with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). However, treatment uptake remains low among marginalized populations such as people who inject drugs. We sought to understand challenges to treatment uptake with DAAs among people living with hepatitis C and compare treatment experiences between people who do and do not inject prescription and/or unregulated drugs.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study using focus groups with 23 adults aged 18 years and over who completed DAA treatment or were about to begin such treatment at the time of the study. Participants were recruited from hepatitis C treatment clinics across Toronto, Ontario. We drew upon stigma theory to interpret participants' accounts.

RESULTS

Following analysis and interpretation, we generated five theoretically-informed themes characterizing the experiences of individuals accessing DAAs: "being 'worthy' of the cure", "spatially enacted stigma", "countering social and structural vulnerability: the importance of peers", "identity disruption and contagion: attaining a 'social cure'" and "challenging stigma with population-based screening". Overall, our findings suggest that structural stigma generated and reproduced through healthcare encounters limits access to DAAs among people who inject drugs. Peer-based programs and population-based screening were proposed by participants as mechanisms for countering stigma within health care settings and 'normalizing' hepatitis C among the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the availability of curative therapies, access to such treatment for people who inject drugs is limited by stigma enacted in and structured within healthcare encounters. Developing novel, low-threshold delivery programs that remove power differentials and attend to the social and structural determinants of health and reinfection are needed to facilitate further scale up of DAAs and support the goal of eradicating hepatitis C as a public health threat.

Correlation of Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) Score With Frailty in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Related Cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

The model for end stage liver disease (MELD), model for end stage liver disease-sodium (MELD Na), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score are independent predictors of mortality in cirrhotic patients. Approximately 43% of cirrhotic patients with advanced disease are frail and can have detrimental effects on the disease prognosis and survival including delisting from the transplant list and increased risk of post-transplant complications. Therefore, our aim was to determine the correlation of MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP score with frailty in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) related cirrhosis.

METHODS

 This cross-sectional study was conducted at the Department of Hepato-gastroenterology, Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation from 1^st January 2022 to 30^th June 2022. All the patients of either gender aged between 18 and 70 years with serological evidence of HCV and features of cirrhosis on ultrasound abdomen were included in the study. Patients with conditions over estimating frailty were excluded from the study. Liver Frailty Index (LFI) was calculated using grip strength measured in kilograms, timed chair stands, and balance testing. CTP and MELD-Na scores for each patient were also recorded. All the data were analyzed using SPSS version 22.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY). The correlation of MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP with LFI was analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and a p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

 A total of 274 patients were included in the study. Out of them, 185 (67.5%) were males. The mean CTP score was 8.1 + 2.1, MELD score of 13.6 + 7.1, MELD-Na score of 15 + 6.6, and LFI of 4.1 + 0.83. LFI was found to be weakly correlated with MELD (r = 0.278) (p < 0.001), MELD-Na score (r = 0.41) (p < 0.001), and CTP score (r = 0.325) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

 Weak correlation was noted between LFI, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na scores in HCV-associated chronic liver disease. Therefore, frailty along with MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP must be assessed before considering the patients for liver transplantation.

Recent Advances in Anticancer Activity of Novel Plant Extracts and Compounds from Curcuma longa in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Among all forms of cancers, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide. There are several treatment options for HCC ranging from loco-regional therapy to surgical treatment. Yet, there is high morbidity and mortality. Recent research focus has shifted towards more effective and less toxic cancer treatment options. Curcumin, the active ingredient in the Curcuma longa plant, has gained widespread attention in recent years because of its multifunctional properties as an antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial, and anticancer agent.

METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, Embase and Google Scholar was performed for studies reporting incidence of HCC, risk factors associated with cirrhosis and experimental use of curcumin as an anti-cancer agent.

RESULTS

This review exclusively encompasses the anti-cancer properties of curcumin in HCC globally and it's postulated molecular targets of curcumin when used against liver cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

This review is concluded by presenting the current challenges and future perspectives of novel plant extracts derived from C. longa and the treatment options against cancers.

Evaluation of Long-Term Outcomes of Direct Acting Antiviral Agents in Chronic Kidney Disease Subjects: A Single Center Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The chronic kidney disease (CKD) population, including kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) and subjects on renal replacement therapy, is particularly vulnerable to unfavorable outcomes from chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Currently, there are oral direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) available to eradicate the virus with favorable short-term outcomes; however, their long-term effects are lacking. The aim of the study is to assess the long-term efficacy and safety of DAA therapy in the CKD population.

METHODS

An observational, cohort single-center study was performed. Fifty-nine CHC subjects with CKD, treated with DAAs between 2016 and 2018, were enrolled in the study. Safety and efficacy profiles were assessed, including sustained virologic response (SVR), occult hepatitis C infection (OCI) incidence, and liver fibrosis.

RESULTS

SVR was achieved in 96% of cases (n = 57). OCI was diagnosed only in one subject following SVR. Significant liver stiffness regression was observed 4 years after SVR compared to baseline values (Mdn = 6.1 kPa, IQR = 3.75 kPa; 4.9 kPa, IQR = 2.9 kPa), p < 0.001. The most common adverse events were anemia, weakness, and urinary tract infection.

CONCLUSION

DAAs provide a safe and effective cure for CHC in both CKD patients and KTRs with a favorable safety profile in the long-term follow-up.

Assessing the potential cost-effectiveness of centralised versus point-of-care testing for hepatitis C virus in Pakistan: a model-based comparison

OBJECTIVES

Pakistan has a hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection prevalence of 6%-9% and aims to achieve World Health Organisation (WHO) targets for elimination of HCV by the year 2030. We aim to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of a reference laboratory-based (centralised laboratory testing; CEN) confirmatory testing approach versus a molecular near-patient point-of-care (POC) confirmatory approach to screen the general population for HCV in Pakistan.

STUDY DESIGN

We used a decision tree-analytic model from a governmental (formal healthcare sector) perspective.

STUDY SETTING

Individuals were assumed to be initially screened with an anti-HCV test at home, followed by POC nucleic acid test (NAT) at nearby district hospitals or followed by NAT at centralised laboratories.

PARTICIPANTS

We included the general testing population for chronic HCV in Pakistan.

INTERVENTION

Screening with an anti-HCV antibody test (Anti-HCV) followed by either POC NAT (Anti-HCV-POC), or reference laboratory NAT (Anti-HCV-CEN), was compared, using data from published literature and the Pakistan Ministry of Health.

MEASURES

Outcome measures included: number of HCV infections identified per year, percentage of individuals correctly classified, total costs, average costs per individual tested, and cost-effectiveness (assessed as cost per additional HCV infection identified). Sensitivity analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

At a national level (25 million annual screening tests), the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy would identify 142 406 more HCV infections in 1 year and increase correct classification of individuals by 0.57% compared with the Anti-HCV-POC strategy. The total annual cost of HCV testing was reduced using the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy by US$7.68 million (US$0.31/person). Thus, incrementally, the Anti-HCV-CEN strategy costs less and identifies more HCV infections than Anti-HCV-POC. The incremental difference in HCV infections identified was most sensitive to the probability of loss to follow-up (for POC confirmatory NAT).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-HCV-CEN would provide the best value for money when scaling up HCV testing in Pakistan.

Interventions for dialysis patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients on dialysis, causes chronic liver disease, may increase the risk of death, and impacts kidney transplant outcomes. Direct-acting antivirals have replaced interferons because of better efficacy and tolerability. This is an update of a review first published in 2015.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to look at the benefits and harms of interventions for HCV in CKD patients on dialysis: death, disease relapse, treatment response/discontinuation, time to recovery, quality of life (QoL), cost-effectiveness, and adverse events. We aimed to study comparisons of available interventions, compared with placebo, control, with each other and with newer treatments.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant's Specialised Register to 23 February 2023 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE, handsearching conference proceedings, and searching the International Clinical Trials Register Portal (ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, first period of randomised cross-over studies on interventions for HCV in CKD on dialysis were considered.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Summary estimates of effect were obtained using a random-effects model, and results were expressed as risk ratios (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Confidence in the evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

MAIN RESULTS

Three studies were included in this update, therefore 13 studies (997 randomised participants) met our inclusion criteria. Overall, the risk of bias was judged low in seven studies, unclear in four, low to unclear in one, and high in one study. Interventions included standard interferon, pegylated (PEG) interferon, standard or PEG interferon plus ribavirin; direct-acting antivirals, and direct-acting antivirals plus PEG interferon plus ribavirin. Compared to placebo or control, standard interferon may make little or no difference to death (5 studies, 134 participants: RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.06 to 13.23) or relapse (low certainty evidence), probably improves end-of-treatment response (ETR) (5 studies, 132 participants: RR 8.62, 95% CI 3.03 to 24.55; I² = 0%) (moderate certainty evidence), and probably makes little or no difference to sustained virological response (SVR) (4 studies, 98 participants: RR 3.25, 95% CI 0.81 to 13.07; I² = 53%), treatment discontinuation (4 studies, 116 participants: RR 4.59, 95% CI 0.49 to 42.69; I² = 63%), and adverse events (5 studies, 143 participants: RR 3.56, 95% CI 0.98 to 13.01; I² = 25%) (moderate certainty evidence). In low certainty evidence, PEG interferon (1 study, 50 participants) may improve ETR (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.15) but may make little or no difference to death (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.01 to 7.81), SVR (RR 2.40, 95% CI 0.99 to 5.81), treatment discontinuation (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.01 to 1.96), adverse events (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.01 to 1.96) and relapses (21/38 relapsed) (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.25) compared to standard interferon. In moderate certainty evidence, high-dose PEG interferon (alpha-2a and alpha-2b) may make little or no difference to death (2 studies, 97 participants: RR 4.30, 95% CI 0.76 to 24.33; I² = 0%), ETR (RR 1.42, 95% CI 0.51 to 3.90; I² = 20%), SVR (RR 1.19, 95% CI 0.68 to 2.07; I² = 0%), treatment discontinuation (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.63 to 2.28; I² = 0%) or adverse events (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.83; I² = 27%) compared to low-dose PEG interferon. High-dose PEG interferon may make little or no difference to relapses (1 study, 43 participants: RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.45 to 2.77; low certainty evidence). There were no significant subgroup differences. Standard interferon plus ribavirin may lead to higher treatment discontinuation (1 study, 52 participants: RR 2.97, 95% CI 1.19 to 7.36; low certainty evidence) compared to standard interferon alone.  In low certainty evidence, PEG interferon plus ribavirin (1 study, 377 participants) may improve SVR (RR 1.80, 95% CI 1.46 to 2.21), reduce relapses (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.48), slightly increase the number with adverse events (RR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.19), and may make little or no difference to ETR (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.09) compared to PEG interferon alone. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of PEG interferon plus ribavirin on treatment discontinuation (RR 1.71, 95% CI 0.69 to 4.24) compared to PEG interferon alone. One study reported grazoprevir plus elbasvir improved ETR (173 participants: RR 174.99, 95% CI 11.03 to 2775.78; low certainty evidence) compared to placebo. It is uncertain whether telaprevir plus ribavirin (high versus low initial dose) plus PEG interferon for 24 versus 48 weeks (1 study, 35 participants) improves ETR (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.56) or SVR (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.56) because the certainty of the evidence is very low.  Data on QoL, cost-effectiveness, cardiovascular outcomes and peritoneal dialysis were not available.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In dialysis patients with HCV infection grazoprevir plus elbasvir probably improves ETR. There is no difference in ETR or SVR for combinations of telaprevir, ribavirin and PEG interferon given for different durations and doses. Though no longer in use, PEG interferon was more effective than standard interferon for ETR but not SVR. Increasing doses of PEG interferon did not improve responses. The addition of ribavirin to PEG interferon may result in fewer relapses, higher SVR, and higher numbers with adverse events.

ANGPTL4 is a potential driver of HCV-induced peripheral insulin resistance

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is associated with the development of metabolic disorders, including both hepatic and extra-hepatic insulin resistance (IR). Here, we aimed at identifying liver-derived factor(s) potentially inducing peripheral IR and uncovering the mechanisms whereby HCV can regulate the action of these factors. We found ANGPTL4 (Angiopoietin Like 4) mRNA expression levels to positively correlate with HCV RNA (r = 0.46, p < 0.03) and HOMA-IR score (r = 0.51, p = 0.01) in liver biopsies of lean CHC patients. Moreover, we observed an upregulation of ANGPTL4 expression in two models recapitulating HCV-induced peripheral IR, i.e. mice expressing core protein of HCV genotype 3a (HCV-3a core) in hepatocytes and hepatoma cells transduced with HCV-3a core. Treatment of differentiated myocytes with recombinant ANGPTL4 reduced insulin-induced Akt-Ser473 phosphorylation. In contrast, conditioned medium from ANGPTL4-KO hepatoma cells prevented muscle cells from HCV-3a core induced IR. Treatment of HCV-3a core expressing HepG2 cells with PPARγ antagonist resulted in a decrease of HCV-core induced ANGPTL4 upregulation. Together, our data identified ANGPTL4 as a potential driver of HCV-induced IR and may provide working hypotheses aimed at understanding the pathogenesis of IR in the setting of other chronic liver disorders.

The pharmacology and mechanisms of platycodin D, an active triterpenoid saponin from Platycodon grandiflorus

Chinese doctors widely prescribed Platycodon grandiflorus A. DC. (PG) to treat lung carbuncles in ancient China. Modern clinical experiences have demonstrated that PG plays a crucial role in treating chronic pharyngitis, plum pneumonia, pneumoconiosis, acute and chronic laryngitis, and so forth. Additionally, PG is a food with a long history in China, Japan, and Korea. Furthermore, Platycodin D (PLD), an oleanane-type triterpenoid saponin, is one of the active substances in PG. PLD has been revealed to have anti-inflammatory, anti-viral, anti-oxidation, anti-obesity, anticoagulant, spermicidal, anti-tumor etc., activities. And the mechanism of the effects draws lots of attention, with various signaling pathways involved in these processes. Additionally, research on PLD’s pharmacokinetics and extraction processes is under study. The bioavailability of PLD could be improved by being prescribed with Glycyrrhiza uralensis Fisch. or by creating a new dosage form. PLD has been recently considered to have the potential to be a solubilizer or an immunologic adjuvant. Meanwhile, PLD was discovered to have hemolytic activity correlated. PLD has broad application prospects and reveals practical pharmacological activities in pre-clinical research. The authors believe that these activities of PLD contribute to the efficacy of PG. What is apparent is that the clinical translation of PLD still has a long way to go. With the help of modern technology, the scope of clinical applications of PLD is probable to be expanded from traditional applications to new fields.

Are We on the Right Track for HCV Micro-Elimination? HCV Management Practices in Dialysis Centers in Poland-A National Cross-Sectional Survey

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is prevalent in the hemodialysis-dependent population. Currently, all patients with CHC should be considered for treatment; however, many hemodialysis-dependent patients are still left untreated. Following HCV cure, accurate surveillance is mandatory to reduce liver-related mortality and prevent reinfection. We aimed to establish HCV management practices and barriers to HCV elimination in dialysis centers in Poland. Polish dialysis centers were surveyed via email. The HCV management strategies were investigated. Representatives of 112 dialysis centers responded, representing 43.1% of all dialysis centers in Poland and 43.4% of hemodialysis-dependent patients' volume. Most respondents were Heads of hemodialysis centers and board-certified nephrologists. The study demonstrated that in the vast majority of hemodialysis centers (91.6%), subjects are considered for antiviral treatment (AVT); however, many obstacles preventing patients from being prescribed AVT were identified; patients' reluctance to undergo AVT was most reported (60%). The majority of dialysis units neither evaluate patients with CHC for liver fibrosis (60.4%) nor screen them for hepatocellular carcinoma (53.5%). In conclusion, the presented study demonstrates that HCV management practices across Polish dialysis centers vary substantially. There is a need to optimize and streamline the HCV management infrastructure in the hemodialysis population in Poland.

Regression in hepatic fibrosis in elderly Chinese patients with hepatitis C receiving direct-acting antiviral treatment

BACKGROUND

Patients infected with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) are recommended to receive treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), which have been certified to obtain a high sustained virological response (SVR). However, little is known about the benefits of successful anti-viral treatment to elderly patients with hepatic fibrosis. In this study, we aimed to assess degree of fibrosis in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) treated with DAAs, and to evaluate the correlations between identified factors associated with these changes.

METHODS

This study retrospectively enrolled elderly patients with CHC who received DAAs in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from April 2018 to April 2021. The degree of liver fibrosis was assessed using serum biomarkers and transient elastography (TE) expressed as the liver stiffness (LSM), while the hepatic steatosis was evaluated by controlled attenuated parameter (CAP). Changes in factors related to hepatic fibrosis were examined following treatment with DAAs, and associated prognostic factors were further evaluated.

RESULTS

We included 347 CHC patients in our analysis, where 127 of these were elderly patients. For the elderly group, the median LSM was 11.6 (7.9-19.9) kPa, and this value was significantly reduced to 9.7 (6.2-16.6) kPa following DAA treatment. Similarly, GPR, FIB-4 and APRI indices were significantly reduced from 0.445 (0.275-1.022), 3.072 (2.047-5.129) and 0.833 (0.430-1.540) to 0.231 (0.155-0.412), 2.100 (1.540-3.034) and 0.336 (0.235-0.528), respectively. While in younger patients, the median LSM reduced from 8.8 (6.1-16.8) kPa to 7.2 (5.3-12.4) kPa, and the trends of GPR, FIB-4 and APRI were also consistent. The CAP in younger patients increased with statistical significance, but we did not observe any significant change in CAP for the elderly group. Based on multivariate analysis, age, LSM, and CAP before baseline were identified as determinants for LSM improvement in the elderly.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we found that elderly CHC patients treated with DAA had significantly lower LSM, GPR, FIB-4, and APRI values. DAA treatment did not significantly change CAP. Furthermore, we observed correlations between three noninvasive serological evaluation markers and LSM. Finally, age, LSM, and CAP were identified as independent predictors of fibrosis regression in elderly patients with CHC.

Trends of HIV indicators in Egypt from 1990 to 2021: time-series analysis and forecast toward UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets

BACKGROUND

Infection with Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pose severe threats to public health across the world. This study aimed to describe and forecast the trend of HIV indicators, including progress towards the 90-90-90 targets in Egypt since 1990.

METHODS

The HIV indicators were graphically described, where the X axis is the time in a year and the Y axis is the value of the selected indicator for each year using data retrieved from UNAIDS. We used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast different HIV indicators from 2022 to 2024.

RESULTS

Since 1990, HIV prevalence has been < 0.01, the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) has increased from < 500 to 30,000 with a higher male predominance since 2010, and the number of children living with HIV has increased from < 100 to 1100. The number of pregnant women who needed antiretroviral treatment (ART) to prevent maternofetal HIV transmission increased from < 500 during 2010-2014 to 780 in 2021, the percentage of women who received ART increased from 3% in 2010 to 18% in 2021, the number of children exposed to HIV who did not get infection increased from < 100 in 1990-1991 to 4900 in 2021. The number of AIDS-related deaths increased from < 100 in 1990 to < 1000 in 2021. Based on forecasting, we expect that by 2024 the number of PLHIV will be 39,325(95%CI, 33,236-37,334), 22% (95%CI, 13.0%-32.0%) of pregnant females will have access to ART, 6100(95%CI, 5714-6485) HIV exposed children will not be infected, 77.0%(95% CI 66.0%-86.0%) of the population who knew their HIV status, and 71.0% (95%CI, 61.0%-81.0%) among those who know their HIV status will be on ART.

CONCLUSION

HIV is moving forward fast, however, the Egyptian health authority implements different control measures to control its spread.

Hepatitis C prevalence and elimination planning in Pakistan, a bottom-up approach accounting for provincial variation

In Pakistan, substantial changes to hepatitis C virus (HCV) programming and treatment have occurred since the 2008 nationwide serosurvey estimated a 4.8% anti-HCV prevalence. In the absence of an updated national study, this analysis uses provincial data to estimate a national prevalence and the interventions needed to achieve elimination. Using a Delphi process, epidemiologic HCV data for the four provinces of Pakistan (accounting for 97% of the population) were reviewed with 21 subject-matter experts in Pakistan. Province-level estimates were inputted into a mathematical model to estimate the national HCV disease burden in the absence of intervention (Base), and if the World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets are achieved by 2030 (80% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage, and 65% reduction in mortality: WHO Elimination). An estimated 9,746,000 (7,573,000-10,006,000) Pakistanis were living with viraemic HCV as of January 1, 2021; a viraemic prevalence of 4.3% (3.3-4.4). WHO Elimination would require an annual average of 18.8 million screens, 1.1 million treatments, and 46,700 new infections prevented anually between 2022 and 2030. Elimination would reduce total infections by 7,045,000, save 152,000 lives and prevent 104,000 incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2015 to 2030. Blood surveys, programmatic data, and expert panel input uncovered more HCV infections and lower treatment numbers in the provinces than estimated using national extrapolations, demonstrating the benefits of a bottom-up approach. Screening and treatment must increase 20 times and 5 times, respectively, to curb the HCV epidemic in Pakistan and achieve elimination by 2030.

The nationwide trends in hospital admissions, deaths, and costs related to hepatitis C stratified by psychiatric disorders and substance use: an analysis of US hospitals between 2016 and 2019

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a prominent liver disease that often presents with mental illness. We stratify the HCV population and review its healthcare burden on the US hospital system.

METHODS

The US National Inpatient Sample was used to select admissions related to HCV between 2016 and 2019. Weights were assigned to discharges, and trend analyses were performed. Strata were formed across demographics, comorbidities, psychiatric and substance use conditions, and other variables. Outcomes of interest included hospitalization incidences, mortality rates, total costs, and mean per-hospitalization costs.

RESULTS

From 2016 to 2019, there were improvements in mortality and hospitalization incidence for HCV, as well as a decline in aggregate costs across the majority of strata. Exceptions that showed cost growth included admissions with multiple psychiatric, stimulant use, or poly-substance use disorders, and a history of homelessness. Admissions with no psychiatric comorbidities, admissions with no substance use comorbidities, and admissions with housing and without HIV comorbidity showed decreasing total costs. Along with per-capita mean costs, admissions with comorbid opioid use, bipolar, or anxiety disorder showed significant increases. No significant trends in per-capita costs were found in admissions without mental illness diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Most strata demonstrated decreases in hospitalization incidences and total costs surrounding HCV; however, HCV cases with mental illness diagnoses saw expenditure growth. Cost-saving mechanisms for these subgroups are warranted.