Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

Carbon exchange responses of a mesic grassland to an extreme gradient of precipitation

Growing evidence indicates that ecosystem processes may be differentially sensitive to dry versus wet years, and that current understanding of how precipitation affects ecosystem processes may not be predictive of responses to extremes. In an experiment within a mesic grassland, we addressed this uncertainty by assessing responses of two key carbon exchange processes-aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and soil respiration (R_s)-to an extensive gradient of growing season precipitation. This gradient comprised 11 levels that specifically included extreme values in precipitation; defined as the 1st, 5th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of the 112-year climate record. Across treatments, our experimental precipitation gradient linearly increased soil moisture availability in the rooting zone (upper 20 cm). Relative to ANPP under nominal precipitation amounts (defined as between the 15th and 85th percentiles), the magnitude of ANPP responses were greatest to extreme increases in precipitation, with an underlying linear response to both precipitation and soil moisture gradients. By contrast, R_s exhibited marginally greater responses to dry versus wet extremes, with a saturating relationship best explaining responses of R_s to both precipitation and soil moisture. Our findings indicate a linear relationship between ANPP and precipitation after incorporating responses to precipitation extremes in the ANPP-precipitation relationship, yet in contrast saturating responses of R_s. As a result, current linear ANPP-precipitation relationships (up to ~ 1000 mm) within mesic grasslands appear to hold as appropriate benchmarks for ecosystems models, yet such models should incorporate nonlinearities in responses of R_s amid increased frequencies and magnitudes of precipitation extremes.

A reality check for climate change experiments: Do they reflect the real world?

Experiments are widely used in ecology, particularly for assessing global change impacts on ecosystem function. However, results from experiments often are inconsistent with observations made under natural conditions, suggesting the need for rigorous comparisons of experimental and observational studies. We conducted such a "reality check" for a grassland ecosystem by compiling results from nine independently conducted climate change experiments. Each experiment manipulated growing season precipitation (GSP) and measured responses in aboveground net primary production (ANPP). We compared results from experiments with long-term (33-yr) annual precipitation and ANPP records to ask if collectively (n = 44 experiment-years) experiments yielded estimates of ANPP, rain-use efficiency (RUE, grams per square meter ANPP per mm precipitation), and the relationship between GSP and ANPP comparable to observations. We found that mean ANPP and RUE from experiments did not deviate from observations. Experiments and observational data also yielded similar functional relationships between ANPP and GSP, but only within the range of historically observed GSP. Fewer experiments imposed extreme levels of GSP (outside the observed 33-yr record), but when these were included, they altered the GSP-ANPP relationship. This result underscores the need for more experiments imposing extreme precipitation levels to resolve how forecast changes in climate regimes will affect ecosystem function in the future.

Hot-Moments of Soil CO2 Efflux in a Water-Limited Grassland

The metabolic activity of water-limited ecosystems is strongly linked to the timing and magnitude of precipitation pulses that can trigger disproportionately high (i.e., hot-moments) ecosystem CO2 fluxes. We analyzed over 2-years of continuous measurements of soil CO2 efflux (Fs) under vegetation (Fsveg) and at bare soil (Fsbare) in a water-limited grassland. The continuous wavelet transform was used to: (a) describe the temporal variability of Fs; (b) test the performance of empirical models ranging in complexity; and (c) identify hot-moments of Fs. We used partial wavelet coherence (PWC) analysis to test the temporal correlation between Fs with temperature and soil moisture. The PWC analysis provided evidence that soil moisture overshadows the influence of soil temperature for Fs in this water limited ecosystem. Precipitation pulses triggered hot-moments that increased Fsveg (up to 9000%) and Fsbare (up to 17,000%) with respect to pre-pulse rates. Highly parameterized empirical models (using support vector machine (SVM) or an 8-day moving window) are good approaches for representing the daily temporal variability of Fs, but SVM is a promising approach to represent high temporal variability of Fs (i.e., hourly estimates). Our results have implications for the representation of hot-moments of ecosystem CO2 fluxes in these globally distributed ecosystems.

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO₂ fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change.

Effects of extreme drought on plant nutrient uptake and resorption in rhizomatous vs bunchgrass-dominated grasslands

Both the dominance and the mass ratio hypotheses predict that plant internal nutrient cycling in ecosystems is determined by the dominant species within plant communities. We tested this hypothesis under conditions of extreme drought by assessing plant nutrient (N, P and K) uptake and resorption in response to experimentally imposed precipitation reductions in two semiarid grasslands of northern China. These two communities shared similar environmental conditions, but had different dominant species-one was dominated by a rhizomatous grass (Leymus chinensis) and the other by a bunchgrass (Stipa grandis). Results showed that responses of N to drought differed between the two communities with drought decreasing green leaf N concentration and resorption in the community dominated by the rhizomatous grass, but not in the bunchgrass-dominated community. In contrast, negative effects of drought on green leaf P and K concentrations and their resorption efficiencies were consistent across the two communities. Additionally, in each community, the effects of extreme drought on soil N, P and K supply did not change synchronously with that on green leaf N, P and K concentrations, and senesced leaf N, P and K concentrations showed no response to extreme drought. Consistent with the dominance/mass ratio hypothesis, our findings suggest that differences in dominant species and their growth form (i.e., rhizomatous vs bunch grass) play an important nutrient-specific role in mediating plant internal nutrient cycling across communities within a single region.

Effects of extreme changes in precipitation on the physiology of C4 grasses

Climatic patterns are expected to become more extreme, with changes in precipitation characterized by heavier rainfall and prolonged dry periods. Yet, most studies focus on persistent moderate changes in precipitation, limiting our understanding of how ecosystems will function in the future. We examined the effects of extreme changes in precipitation on leaf-level and ecosystem CO₂ and H₂O exchange of three native C4 bunchgrasses (Andropogon gerardii, Panicum virgatum, and Sorghastrum nutans) over 3 years. Grasses were grown in three precipitation treatments: extreme dry, mean, and extreme wet based on historical rainfall records. After 3 years, plants were 45% smaller in the extreme dry treatment relative to the mean and extreme high treatment, which did not differ. We also found that an extreme decrease in precipitation caused reductions of 55, 40, and 40% in leaf-level photosynthesis (A_net), stomatal conductance (g_s), and water use efficiency (WUE), respectively. Extreme increases in precipitation inhibited leaf-level WUE, with a 44% reduction relative to the mean treatment. At the ecosystem level, both an extreme increase and decrease in precipitation reduced net CO₂ and water fluxes relative to plants grown with mean levels of precipitation. Net water fluxes (ET) were reduced by an average of 74% in the extreme dry and extreme wet treatment relative to mean treatment; net carbon fluxes followed a similar trend, with average reductions of 68% (NEE) and 100% (R_e). Unlike moderate climate change, extreme increases in precipitation may be just as detrimental as extreme decreases in precipitation in shifting grassland physiology.

Climate variability decreases species richness and community stability in a temperate grassland

Climate change involves modifications in both the mean and the variability of temperature and precipitation. According to global warming projections, both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme weather events are increasing, thereby increasing climate variability. The previous studies have reported that climate warming tends to decrease biodiversity and the temporal stability of community primary productivity (i.e., community stability), but the effects of the variability of temperature and precipitation on biodiversity, community stability, and their relationship have not been clearly explored. We used a long-term (from 1982 to 2014) field data set from a temperate grassland in northern China to explore the effects of the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation on species richness, community stability, and their relationship. Results showed that species richness promoted community stability through increases in asynchronous dynamics across species (i.e., species asynchrony). Both species richness and species asynchrony were positively associated with the residuals of community stability after controlling for its dependence on the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation. Furthermore, the variability of mean temperature reduced species richness, while the variability of total precipitation decreased species asynchrony and community stability. Overall, the present study revealed that species richness and species asynchrony promoted community stability, but increased climate variability may erode these positive effects and thereby threaten community stability.

High land-use intensity exacerbates shifts in grassland vegetation composition after severe experimental drought

Climate change projections anticipate increased frequency and intensity of drought stress, but grassland responses to severe droughts and their potential to recover are poorly understood. In many grasslands, high land-use intensity has enhanced productivity and promoted resource-acquisitive species at the expense of resource-conservative ones. Such changes in plant functional composition could affect the resistance to drought and the recovery after drought of grassland ecosystems with consequences for feed productivity resilience and environmental stewardship. In a 12-site precipitation exclusion experiment in upland grassland ecosystems across Switzerland, we imposed severe edaphic drought in plots under rainout shelters and compared them with plots under ambient conditions. We used soil water potentials to scale drought stress across sites. Impacts of precipitation exclusion and drought legacy effects were examined along a gradient of land-use intensity to determine how grasslands resisted to, and recovered after drought. In the year of precipitation exclusion, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in plots under rainout shelters was -15% to -56% lower than in control plots. Drought effects on ANPP increased with drought severity, specified as duration of topsoil water potential ψ < -100 kPa, irrespective of land-use intensity. In the year after drought, ANPP had completely recovered, but total species diversity had declined by -10%. Perennial species showed elevated mortality, but species richness of annuals showed a small increase due to enhanced recruitment. In general, the more resource-acquisitive grasses increased at the expense of the deeper-rooted forbs after drought, suggesting that community reorganization was driven by competition rather than plant mortality. The negative effects of precipitation exclusion on forbs increased with land-use intensity. Our study suggests a synergistic impact of land-use intensification and climate change on grassland vegetation composition, and implies that biomass recovery after drought may occur at the expense of biodiversity maintenance.

Decoupling the direct and indirect effects of climate on plant litter decomposition: Accounting for stress-induced modifications in plant chemistry

Decomposition of plant litter is a fundamental ecosystem process that can act as a feedback to climate change by simultaneously influencing both the productivity of ecosystems and the flux of carbon dioxide from the soil. The influence of climate on decomposition from a postsenescence perspective is relatively well known; in particular, climate is known to regulate the rate of litter decomposition via its direct influence on the reaction kinetics and microbial physiology on processes downstream of tissue senescence. Climate can alter plant metabolism during the formative stage of tissues and could shape the final chemical composition of plant litter that is available for decomposition, and thus indirectly influence decomposition; however, these indirect effects are relatively poorly understood. Climatic stress disrupts cellular homeostasis in plants and results in the reprogramming of primary and secondary metabolic pathways, which leads to changes in the quantity, composition, and organization of small molecules and recalcitrant heteropolymers, including lignins, tannins, suberins, and cuticle within the plant tissue matrix. Furthermore, by regulating metabolism during tissue senescence, climate influences the resorption of nutrients from senescing tissues. Thus, the final chemical composition of plant litter that forms the substrate of decomposition is a combined product of presenescence physiological processes through the production and resorption of metabolites. The changes in quantity, composition, and localization of the molecular construct of the litter could enhance or hinder tissue decomposition and soil nutrient cycling by altering the recalcitrance of the lignocellulose matrix, the composition of microbial communities, and the activity of microbial exo-enzymes via various complexation reactions. Also, the climate-induced changes in the molecular composition of litter could differentially influence litter decomposition and soil nutrient cycling. Compared with temperate ecosystems, the indirect effects of climate on litter decomposition in the tropics are not well understood, which underscores the need to conduct additional studies in tropical biomes. We also emphasize the need to focus on how climatic stress affects the root chemistry as roots contribute significantly to biogeochemical cycling, and on utilizing more robust analytical approaches to capture the molecular composition of tissue matrix that fuel microbial metabolism.

Ecosystem functional response across precipitation extremes in a sagebrush steppe

Background

Precipitation is predicted to become more variable in the western United States, meaning years of above and below average precipitation will become more common. Periods of extreme precipitation are major drivers of interannual variability in ecosystem functioning in water limited communities, but how ecosystems respond to these extremes over the long-term may shift with precipitation means and variances. Long-term changes in ecosystem functional response could reflect compensatory changes in species composition or species reaching physiological thresholds at extreme precipitation levels.

Methods

We conducted a five year precipitation manipulation experiment in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem in Idaho, United States. We used drought and irrigation treatments (approximately 50% decrease/increase) to investigate whether ecosystem functional response remains consistent under sustained high or low precipitation. We recorded data on aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species abundance, and soil moisture. We fit a generalized linear mixed effects model to determine if the relationship between ANPP and soil moisture differed among treatments. We used nonmetric multidimensional scaling to quantify community composition over the five years.

Results

Ecosystem functional response, defined as the relationship between soil moisture and ANPP, was similar among irrigation and control treatments, but the drought treatment had a greater slope than the control treatment. However, all estimates for the effect of soil moisture on ANPP overlapped zero, indicating the relationship is weak and uncertain regardless of treatment. There was also large spatial variation in ANPP within-years, which contributes to the uncertainty of the soil moisture effect. Plant community composition was remarkably stable over the course of the experiment and did not differ among treatments.

Discussion

Despite some evidence that ecosystem functional response became more sensitive under sustained drought conditions, the response of ANPP to soil moisture was consistently weak and community composition was stable. The similarity of ecosystem functional responses across treatments was not related to compensatory shifts at the plant community level, but instead may reflect the insensitivity of the dominant species to soil moisture. These species may be successful precisely because they have evolved life history strategies that buffer them against precipitation variability.

Multi-century tree-ring precipitation record reveals increasing frequency of extreme dry events in the upper Blue Nile River catchment

Climate-related environmental and humanitarian crisis are important challenges in the Great Horn of Africa (GHA). In the absence of long-term past climate records in the region, tree-rings are valuable climate proxies, reflecting past climate variations and complementing climate records prior to the instrumental era. We established annually resolved multi-century tree-ring chronology from Juniperus procera trees in northern Ethiopia, the longest series yet for the GHA. The chronology correlates significantly with wet-season (r = .64, p < .01) and annual (r = .68, p < .01) regional rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall since A.D. 1811 revealed significant interannual variations between 2.2 and 3.8 year periodicity, with significant decadal and multidecadal variations during 1855-1900 and 1960-1990. The duration of negative and positive rainfall anomalies varied between 1-7 years and 1-8 years. Approximately 78.4% (95%) of reconstructed dry (extreme dry) and 85.4% (95%) of wet (extreme wet) events lasted for 1 year only and corresponded to historical records of famine and flooding, suggesting that future climate change studies should be both trend and extreme event focused. The average return periods for dry (extreme dry) and wet (extreme wet) events were 4.1 (8.8) years and 4.1 (9.5) years. Extreme-dry conditions during the 19th century were concurrent with drought episodes in equatorial eastern Africa that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age. El Niño and La Niña events matched with 38.5% and 50% of extreme-dry and extreme-wet events. Equivalent matches for positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events were weaker, reaching 23.1 and 25%, respectively. Spatial correlations revealed that reconstructed rainfall represents wet-season rainfall variations over northern Ethiopia and large parts of the Sahel belt. The data presented are useful for backcasting climate and hydrological models and for developing regional strategic plans to manage scarce and contested water resources. Historical perspectives on long-term regional rainfall variability improve the interpretation of recent climate trends.

Methods to test the interactive effects of drought and plant invasion on ecosystem structure and function using complementary common garden and field experiments

Abiotic global change drivers affect ecosystem structure and function, but how they interact with biotic factors such as invasive plants is understudied. Such interactions may be additive, synergistic, or offsetting, and difficult to predict. We present methods to test the individual and interactive effects of drought and plant invasion on native ecosystems. We coupled a factorial common garden experiment containing resident communities exposed to drought (imposed with rainout shelters) and invasion with a field experiment where the invader was removed from sites spanning a natural soil moisture gradient. We detail treatments and their effects on abiotic conditions, including soil moisture, light, temperature, and humidity, which shape community and ecosystem responses. Ambient precipitation during the garden experiment exceeded historic norms despite severe drought in prior years. Soil moisture was 48% lower in drought than ambient plots, but the invader largely offset drought effects. Additionally, temperature and light were lower and humidity higher in invaded plots. Field sites spanned up to a 10‐fold range in soil moisture and up to a 2.5‐fold range in light availability. Invaded and resident vegetation did not differentially mediate soil moisture, unlike in the garden experiment. Herbicide effectively removed invaded and resident vegetation, with removal having site‐specific effects on soil moisture and light availability. However, light was generally higher in invader‐removal than control plots, whereas resident removal had less effect on light, similar to the garden experiment. Invasion mitigated a constellation of abiotic conditions associated with drought stress in the garden experiment. In the field, where other factors co‐varied, these patterns did not emerge. Still, neither experiment suggested that drought and invasion will have synergistic negative effects on ecosystems, although invasion can limit light availability. Coupling factorial garden experiments with field experiments across environmental gradients will be effective for predicting how multiple stressors interact in natural systems.

Short-Term Effects of Changing Precipitation Patterns on Shrub-Steppe Grasslands: Seasonal Watering Is More Important than Frequency of Watering Events

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns. Droughts may become longer and more frequent, and the timing and intensity of precipitation may change. We tested how shifting precipitation patterns, both seasonally and by frequency of events, affects soil nitrogen availability, plant biomass and diversity in a shrub-steppe temperate grassland along a natural productivity gradient in Lac du Bois Grasslands Protected Area near Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada. We manipulated seasonal watering patterns by either exclusively watering in the spring or the fall. To simulate spring precipitation we restricted precipitation inputs in the fall, then added 50% more water than the long term average in the spring, and vice-versa for the fall precipitation treatment. Overall, the amount of precipitation remained roughly the same. We manipulated the frequency of rainfall events by either applying water weekly (frequent) or monthly (intensive). After 2 years, changes in the seasonality of watering had greater effects on plant biomass and diversity than changes in the frequency of watering. Fall watering reduced biomass and increased species diversity, while spring watering had little effect. The reduction in biomass in fall watered treatments was due to a decline in grasses, but not forbs. Plant available N, measured by Plant Root Simulator (PRS)-probes, increased from spring to summer to fall, and was higher in fall watered treatments compared to spring watered treatments when measured in the fall. The only effect observed due to frequency of watering events was greater extractable soil N in monthly applied treatments compared to weekly watering treatments. Understanding the effects of changing precipitation patterns on grasslands will allow improved grassland conservation and management in the face of global climatic change, and here we show that if precipitation is more abundant in the fall, compared to the spring, grassland primary productivity will likely be negatively affected.