RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre: 50 years' surveillance of influenza, infections, and respiratory conditions

Association between Influenza Vaccine Administration and Primary Care Consultations for Respiratory Infections: Sentinel Network Study of Five Seasons (2014/2015-2018/2019) in the UK

Influenza, a vaccine preventable disease, is a serious global public health concern which results in a considerable burden on the healthcare system. However, vaccine hesitancy is increasingly becoming a global problem. One prevalent misconception is that influenza vaccinations can cause the flu. We carried out this study to determine whether people undertaking influenza vaccination presented less with acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) and influenza-like-illness (ILI) following vaccination. We utilised the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sentinel database to examine English patients who received vaccination between 2014/2015 and 2018/2019. Of the 3,841,700 influenza vaccinations identified, vaccination details and primary care respiratory consultation counts were extracted to calculate the relative incidence (RI) per exposure risk period using the self-controlled case series methodology. Results showed a significant increase in the RI of respiratory consultation rates within fourteen days of vaccination across all five years. Less than 6.2% of vaccinations led to consultations for ARTI or ILI in primary care (crude consultation rate 6196 per 100,000). These findings, particularly if confirmed in further research, may reduce the risk of cross-infection between waiting patients and increase uptake of influenza vaccine.

Using an Ontology to Facilitate More Accurate Coding of Social Prescriptions Addressing Social Determinants of Health: Feasibility Study

Background

National Health Service (NHS) England supports social prescribing in order to address social determinants of health, which account for approximately 80% of all health outcomes. Nevertheless, data on ongoing social prescribing activities are lacking. Although NHS England has attempted to overcome this problem by recommending 3 standardized primary care codes, these codes do not capture the social prescribing activity to a level of granularity that would allow for fair attribution of outcomes to social prescribing.

Objective

In this study, we explored whether an alternative approach to coding social prescribing activity, specifically through a social prescribing ontology, can be used to capture the social prescriptions used in primary care in greater detail.

Methods

The social prescribing ontology, implemented according to the Web Ontology Language, was designed to cover several key concepts encompassing social determinants of health. Readv2 and Clinical Terms Version 3 codes were identified using the NHS Terms Browser. The Royal College of General Practitioners Research Surveillance Centre, a sentinel network of over 1000 primary care practices across England covering a population of more than 4,000,000 registered patients, was used for data analyses for a defined period (ie, January 2011 to December 2019).

Results

In all, 668 codes capturing social prescriptions addressing different social determinants of health were identified for the social prescribing ontology. For the study period, social prescribing ontology codes were used 5,504,037 times by primary care practices of the Royal College of General Practitioners Research Surveillance Centre as compared to 29,606 instances of use of social prescribing codes, including NHS England’s recommended codes.

Conclusions

A social prescribing ontology provides a powerful alternative to the codes currently recommended by NHS England to capture detailed social prescribing activity in England. The more detailed information thus obtained will allow for explorations about whether outputs or outcomes of care delivery can be attributed to social prescriptions, which is essential for demonstrating the overall value that social prescribing can deliver to the NHS and health care systems.

COVID-19 in children: analysis of the first pandemic peak in England

OBJECTIVES

To assess disease trends, testing practices, community surveillance, case-fatality and excess deaths in children as compared with adults during the first pandemic peak in England.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

Children with COVID-19 between January and May 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Trends in confirmed COVID-19 cases, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positivity rates in children compared with adults; community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children with acute respiratory infection (ARI) compared with adults, case-fatality rate in children with confirmed COVID-19 and excess childhood deaths compared with the previous 5 years.

RESULTS

Children represented 1.1% (1,408/129,704) of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases between 16 January 2020 and 3 May 2020. In total, 540 305 people were tested for SARS-COV-2 and 129,704 (24.0%) were positive. In children aged <16 years, 35,200 tests were performed and 1408 (4.0%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, compared to 19.1%-34.9% adults. Childhood cases increased from mid-March and peaked on 11 April before declining. Among 2,961 individuals presenting with ARI in primary care, 351 were children and 10 (2.8%) were positive compared with 9.3%-45.5% in adults. Eight children died and four (case-fatality rate, 0.3%; 95% CI 0.07% to 0.7%) were due to COVID-19. We found no evidence of excess mortality in children.

CONCLUSIONS

Children accounted for a very small proportion of confirmed cases despite the large numbers of children tested. SARS-CoV-2 positivity was low even in children with ARI. Our findings provide further evidence against the role of children in infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Excess mortality in the first COVID pandemic peak: cross-sectional analyses of the impact of age, sex, ethnicity, household size, and long-term conditions in people of known SARS-CoV-2 status in England

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has passed its first peak in Europe.

Aim

To describe the mortality in England and its association with SARS-CoV-2 status and other demographic and risk factors.

Design and setting

Cross-sectional analyses of people with known SARS-CoV-2 status in the Oxford RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) sentinel network.

Method

Pseudonymised, coded clinical data were uploaded from volunteer general practice members of this nationally representative network (n = 4 413 734). All-cause mortality was compared with national rates for 2019, using a relative survival model, reporting relative hazard ratios (RHR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A multivariable adjusted odds ratios (OR) analysis was conducted for those with known SARS-CoV-2 status (n = 56 628, 1.3%) including multiple imputation and inverse probability analysis, and a complete cases sensitivity analysis.

Results

Mortality peaked in week 16. People living in households of ≥9 had a fivefold increase in relative mortality (RHR = 5.1, 95% CI = 4.87 to 5.31, P<0.0001). The ORs of mortality were 8.9 (95% CI = 6.7 to 11.8, P<0.0001) and 9.7 (95% CI = 7.1 to 13.2, P<0.0001) for virologically and clinically diagnosed cases respectively, using people with negative tests as reference. The adjusted mortality for the virologically confirmed group was 18.1% (95% CI = 17.6 to 18.7). Male sex, population density, black ethnicity (compared to white), and people with long-term conditions, including learning disability (OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.22 to 3.18, P = 0.0056) had higher odds of mortality.

Conclusion

The first SARS-CoV-2 peak in England has been associated with excess mortality. Planning for subsequent peaks needs to better manage risk in males, those of black ethnicity, older people, people with learning disabilities, and people who live in multi-occupancy dwellings.

COVID-19 Surveillance in a Primary Care Sentinel Network: In-Pandemic Development of an Application Ontology

Background

Creating an ontology for COVID-19 surveillance should help ensure transparency and consistency. Ontologies formalize conceptualizations at either the domain or application level. Application ontologies cross domains and are specified through testable use cases. Our use case was an extension of the role of the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) to monitor the current pandemic and become an in-pandemic research platform.

Objective

This study aimed to develop an application ontology for COVID-19 that can be deployed across the various use-case domains of the RCGP RSC research and surveillance activities.

Methods

We described our domain-specific use case. The actor was the RCGP RSC sentinel network, the system was the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outcomes were the spread and effect of mitigation measures. We used our established 3-step method to develop the ontology, separating ontological concept development from code mapping and data extract validation. We developed a coding system–independent COVID-19 case identification algorithm. As there were no gold-standard pandemic surveillance ontologies, we conducted a rapid Delphi consensus exercise through the International Medical Informatics Association Primary Health Care Informatics working group and extended networks.

Results

Our use-case domains included primary care, public health, virology, clinical research, and clinical informatics. Our ontology supported (1) case identification, microbiological sampling, and health outcomes at an individual practice and at the national level; (2) feedback through a dashboard; (3) a national observatory; (4) regular updates for Public Health England; and (5) transformation of a sentinel network into a trial platform. We have identified a total of 19,115 people with a definite COVID-19 status, 5226 probable cases, and 74,293 people with possible COVID-19, within the RCGP RSC network (N=5,370,225).

Conclusions

The underpinning structure of our ontological approach has coped with multiple clinical coding challenges. At a time when there is uncertainty about international comparisons, clarity about the basis on which case definitions and outcomes are made from routine data is essential.

Evaluating a clinical tool (FAMCAT) for identifying familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is an inherited lipid disorder causing premature heart disease, which is severely underdiagnosed. Improving the identification of people with FH in primary care settings would help to reduce avoidable heart attacks and early deaths.

Aim

To evaluate the accuracy of the familial hypercholesterolaemia case ascertainment identifcation tool (FAMCAT) for identifying FH in primary care.

Design & setting

A retrospective cohort study of 1 030 183 patients was undertaken. Data were extracted from the UK Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) database. Patient were aged >16 years.

Method

The FAMCAT algorithm was compared with methods of FH detection recommended by national guidelines (Simon Broome diagnostic criteria, Dutch Lipid Clinic Network [DLCN] Score, and cholesterol levels >99^th centile). Discrimination and calibration were assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and by comparing observed versus predicted cases.

Results

A total of 1707 patients had a diagnosis of FH. FAMCAT showed a high level of discrimination (AUC = 0.844, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.834 to 0.854), performing significantly better than Simon Broome criteria (AUC = 0.730, 95% CI = 0.719 to 0.741), DLCN Score (AUC = 0.766, 95% CI = 0.755 to 0.778), and screening cholesterols >99 th centile (AUC = 0.579, 95% CI = 0.571 to 0.588). Inclusion of premature myocardial infarction (MI) and fitting cholesterol as a continuous variable improved the accuracy of FAMCAT (AUC = 0.894, 95% CI = 0.885 to 0.903).

Conclusion

Better performance of the FAMCAT algorithm, compared with other approaches for case finding of FH in primary care, such as Simon Broome criteria, DLCN criteria or very high cholesterol levels, has been confirmed in a large population cohort.

Disparities in the excess risk of mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: Cross sectional study of the English sentinel network

OBJECTIVES

Few studies report contributors to the excess mortality in England during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. We report the absolute excess risk (AER) of mortality and excess mortality rate (EMR) from a nationally representative COVID-19 sentinel surveillance network including known COVID-19 risk factors in people aged 45 years and above.

METHODS

Pseudonymised, coded clinical data were uploaded from contributing primary care providers (N = 1,970,314, ≥45years). We calculated the AER in mortality by comparing mortality for weeks 2 to 20 this year with mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from 2018 for the same weeks. We conducted univariate and multivariate analysis including preselected variables. We report AER and EMR, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

The AER of mortality was 197.8/10,000 person years (95%CI:194.30-201.40). The EMR for male gender, compared with female, was 1.4 (95%CI:1.35-1.44, p<0.00); for our oldest age band (≥75 years) 10.09 (95%CI:9.46-10.75, p<0.00) compared to 45-64 year olds; Black ethnicity's EMR was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.03-1.33, p<0.02), reference white; and for dwellings with ≥9 occupants 8.01 (95%CI: 9.46-10.75, p<0.00). Presence of all included comorbidities significantly increased EMR. Ranked from lowest to highest these were: hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic respiratory and heart disease, and cancer or immunocompromised.

CONCLUSIONS

The absolute excess mortality was approximately 2 deaths per 100 person years in the first wave of COVID-19. More personalised shielding advice for any second wave should include ethnicity, comorbidity and household size as predictors of risk.

Use and impact of social prescribing: a mixed-methods feasibility study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Social prescribing aims to address social determinants of health, which account for 80%-90% of health outcomes, but the evidence base behind it is limited due to a lack of data linkingsocial prescribing activity and outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The objective of the quantitative component of this feasibility studyisto identify the characteristics of individuals who receive social prescriptions and describe the use and estimate the impact of social prescribing; the latter will be done on a homeless subgroup. We will use the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network, whose general practicescover a population of over 4 000 000 patients. Social prescribing data will be extracted onall recorded patients for 5 years up to 31 January 2020. The objective for the qualitative component of the study isto explore approaches to understand the contextual factors that will have influenced our quantitative findings to identify mechanisms to encourage adoption of social prescribing in primary care while improving data quality. Itwill comprise up to three 90-120 minute advisory group meetings for six to eight participants. Participants will be recruited based on their experience of delivering primary care within Oxfordshire and Surrey. The advisory group outputs will be analysed using framework analysis and will be used to create a survey instrument consisting of statements that surveyees, who will consist of primary care practitioners within the RCGP RSC, can agree or disagree with.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All RCGP RSC data are pseudonymised at the point of data extraction. No personally identifiable data are required for this investigation. This protocol follows the Good Reporting of a Mixed Methods Study checklist. The study results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and the dataset will be available to other researchers.

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor cardiovascular outcome trials and generalizability to English primary care

AIM

To identify people in English primary care with equivalent cardiovascular risk to participants in the sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2i) cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs). A secondary objective was to report the usage of SGLT-2is.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of people registered with participating practices in the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network on the 31 December 2016. We derived: (1) proportions of the primary care population eligible for inclusion in each SGLT-2i CVOT (CANVAS, DECLARE, EMPA-REG and VERTIS); (2) characteristics of the eligible population compared with trial participants (demographics, disease duration and vascular risk); and (3) differences within the eligible population prescribed SGLT-2is.

RESULTS

The proportions of people with type 2 diabetes (N = 84 394) meeting the inclusion criteria for each CVOT were: DECLARE 27% [95% confidence interval (CI) 26.5-27.1]; CANVAS 17% (16.6-17.1); VERTIS 7% (7.1-7.4); and EMPA-REG 7% (6.5-6.8). Primary care populations fulfilling inclusion criteria were 5-8 years older than trial cohorts, and <10% with inclusion criteria of each trial were prescribed an SGLT-2i; a greater proportion were men, and of white ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

There was variation in proportions of the primary care type 2 diabetes population fulfilling inclusion criteria of SGLT-2i CVOTs. The more stringent the inclusion criteria, the lower the proportion identified in a primary care setting. Prescription rates for SGLT-2is were low in this national database, and there were demographic disparities in prescribing.

Does Renal Function or Heart Failure Diagnosis Affect Primary Care Prescribing for Sodium-Glucose Co-Transporter 2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes?

INTRODUCTION

Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) are a unique class of drugs currently used in the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). There are emerging data from cardiovascular outcome trials confirming renal and heart failure benefits of these drugs independent of glucose lowering. By contrast, the current licencing indications of these drugs are mainly limited to their glucose-lowering effects, and not to renal or heart failure benefits. It is therefore timely to ascertain whether the presence of these clinical conditions may influence prescribing choices for patients with T2D. Our aims are to report prescribing of SGLT2is in people with T2D according to their renal function and presence of heart failure. Co-prescribing with diuretics will also be explored.

METHODS

We will perform a cross-sectional analysis of people with T2D in the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network. The RCGP RSC includes more than 1500 volunteer practices throughout England and parts of Wales, and a representative sample of over 10 million patients. The proportion of adults with T2D ever prescribed an SGLT2i will be determined. Within this cohort, we will calculate the percentage of SGLT2is prescribed according to renal function, and the proportion of prescriptions in people with co-morbid heart failure, stratified by body mass index categories. The percentage of SGLT2is prescribed as an add-on to a diuretic or following discontinuation of prescribing for a diuretic will also be reported. Multilevel logistic regression will be performed to explore the association between heart failure and renal function, and propensity to prescribe SGLT2is.

PLANNED OUTPUTS

The study findings will be submitted to a primary care/diabetes-focused conference, and for publication in a peer reviewed journal.

CASNET2: evaluation of an electronic safety netting cancer toolkit for the primary care electronic health record: protocol for a pragmatic stepped-wedge RCT

INTRODUCTION

Safety-netting in primary care is the best practice in cancer diagnosis, ensuring that patients are followed up until symptoms are explained or have resolved. Currently, clinicians use haphazard manual solutions. The ubiquitous use of electronic health records provides an opportunity to standardise safety-netting practices.A new electronic safety-netting toolkit has been introduced to provide systematic ways to track and follow up patients. We will evaluate the effectiveness of this toolkit, which is embedded in a major primary care clinical system in England:Egerton Medical Information System(EMIS)-Web.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a stepped-wedge cluster RCT in 60 general practices within the RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network. Groups of 10 practices will be randomised into the active phase at 2-monthly intervals over 12 months. All practices will be activated for at least 2 months. The primary outcome is the primary care interval measured as days between the first recorded symptom of cancer (within the year prior to diagnosis) and the subsequent referral to secondary care. Other outcomes include referrals rates and rates of direct access cancer investigation.Analysis of the clustered stepped-wedge design will model associations using a fixed effect for intervention condition of the cluster at each time step, a fixed effect for time and other covariates, and then include a random effect for practice and for patient to account for correlation between observations from the same centre and from the same participant.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been obtained from the North West-Greater Manchester West National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (REC Reference 19/NW/0692). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and conferences, and sent to participating practices. They will be published on the University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Primary Care and RCGP RSC websites.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN15913081; Pre-results.

COVID-19 in children: analysis of the first pandemic peak in England

OBJECTIVES

To assess disease trends, testing practices, community surveillance, case-fatality and excess deaths in children as compared with adults during the first pandemic peak in England.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

Children with COVID-19 between January and May 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Trends in confirmed COVID-19 cases, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positivity rates in children compared with adults; community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children with acute respiratory infection (ARI) compared with adults, case-fatality rate in children with confirmed COVID-19 and excess childhood deaths compared with the previous 5 years.

RESULTS

Children represented 1.1% (1,408/129,704) of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases between 16 January 2020 and 3 May 2020. In total, 540 305 people were tested for SARS-COV-2 and 129,704 (24.0%) were positive. In children aged <16 years, 35,200 tests were performed and 1408 (4.0%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2, compared to 19.1%-34.9% adults. Childhood cases increased from mid-March and peaked on 11 April before declining. Among 2,961 individuals presenting with ARI in primary care, 351 were children and 10 (2.8%) were positive compared with 9.3%-45.5% in adults. Eight children died and four (case-fatality rate, 0.3%; 95% CI 0.07% to 0.7%) were due to COVID-19. We found no evidence of excess mortality in children.

CONCLUSIONS

Children accounted for a very small proportion of confirmed cases despite the large numbers of children tested. SARS-CoV-2 positivity was low even in children with ARI. Our findings provide further evidence against the role of children in infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Integrating molecular point-of-care testing for influenza into primary care: a mixed-methods feasibility study

Background

Molecular point-of-care testing (POCT) for influenza in primary care could influence clinical care and patient outcomes.

Aim

To assess the feasibility of incorporating influenza POCT into general practice in England.

Design and setting

A mixed-methods study conducted in six general practices that had not previously participated in respiratory virology sampling, which are part of the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre English sentinel surveillance network, from February 2019 to May 2019.

Method

A sociotechnical perspective was adopted using the Public Health England POCT implementation toolkit and business process modelling notation to inform qualitative analysis. Quantitative data were collected about the number of samples taken, their representativeness, and the virology results obtained, comparing them with the rest of the sentinel system over the same weeks.

Results

A total of 312 POCTs were performed; 276 were used for quantitative analysis, of which 60 were positive for influenza and 216 were negative. The average swabbing rate was 0.4 per 1000 population and swab positivity was between 16.7% (n = 14/84) and 41.4% (n = 12/29). Given a positive influenza POCT result, the odds ratio of receiving an antiviral was 14.1 (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 2.9 to 70.0, P<0.001) and of receiving an antibiotic was 0.4 (95% CI = 0.2 to 0.8, P = 0.01), compared with patients with a negative result. Qualitative analysis showed that it was feasible for practices to implement POCT, but there is considerable variation in the processes used.

Conclusion

Testing for influenza using POCT is feasible in primary care and may improve antimicrobial use. However, further evidence from randomised trials of influenza POCT in general practice is needed.

Reorganisation of primary care for older adults during COVID-19: a cross-sectional database study in the UK

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in a rapid change in workload across healthcare systems. Factors related to this adaptation in UK primary care have not yet been examined.

Aim

To assess the responsiveness and prioritisation of primary care consultation type for older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design and setting

A cross-sectional database study examining consultations between 17 February and 10 May 2020 for patients aged ≥65 years, drawn from primary care practices within the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) sentinel network, UK.

Method

The authors reported the proportion of consultation type across five categories: clinical administration, electronic/video, face-to-face, telephone, and home visits. Temporal trends in telephone and face-to-face consultations were analysed by polypharmacy, frailty status, and socioeconomic group using incidence rate ratios (IRR).

Results

Across 3 851 304 consultations, the population median age was 75 years (interquartile range [IQR] 70–82); and 46% (n = 82 926) of the cohort (N = 180 420) were male. The rate of telephone and electronic/video consultations more than doubled across the study period (106.0% and 102.8%, respectively). Face-to-face consultations fell by 64.6% and home visits by 62.6%. This predominantly occurred across week 11 (week commencing 9 March 2020), coinciding with national policy change. Polypharmacy and frailty were associated with a relative increase in consultations. The greatest relative increase was among people taking ≥10 medications compared with those taking none (face-to-face IRR 9.90, 95% CI = 9.55 to 10.26; telephone IRR 17.64, 95% CI = 16.89 to 18.41).

Conclusion

Primary care has undergone an unprecedented in-pandemic reorganisation while retaining focus on patients with increased complexity.

Linkage of the CHHiP randomised controlled trial with primary care data: a study investigating ways of supplementing cancer trials and improving evidence-based practice

BACKGROUND

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evidence-based practice. However, RCTs can have limitations. For example, translation of findings into practice can be limited by design features, such as inclusion criteria, not accurately reflecting clinical populations. In addition, it is expensive to recruit and follow-up participants in RCTs. Linkage with routinely collected data could offer a cost-effective way to enhance the conduct and generalisability of RCTs. The aim of this study is to investigate how primary care data can support RCTs.

METHODS

Secondary analysis following linkage of two datasets: 1) multicentre CHHiP radiotherapy trial (ISRCTN97182923) and 2) primary care database from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. Comorbidities and medications recorded in CHHiP at baseline, and radiotherapy-related toxicity recorded in CHHiP over time were compared with primary care records. The association of comorbidities and medications with toxicity was analysed with mixed-effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

Primary care records were extracted for 106 out of 2811 CHHiP participants recruited from sites in England (median age 70, range 44 to 82). Complementary information included longitudinal body mass index, blood pressure and cholesterol, as well as baseline smoking and alcohol usage but was limited by the considerable missing data. In the linked sample, 9 (8%) participants were recorded in CHHiP as having a history of diabetes and 38 (36%) hypertension, whereas primary care records indicated incidence prior to trial entry of 11 (10%) and 40 (38%) respectively. Concomitant medications were not collected in CHHiP but available in primary care records. This indicated that 44 (41.5%) men took aspirin, 65 (61.3%) statins, 14 (13.2%) metformin and 46 (43.4%) phosphodiesterase-5-inhibitors at some point before or after trial entry.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a set of recommendations on linkage and supplementation of trials. Data recorded in primary care are a rich resource and linkage could provide near real-time information to supplement trials and an efficient and cost-effective mechanism for long-term follow-up. In addition, standardised primary care data extracts could form part of RCT recruitment and conduct. However, this is at present limited by the variable quality and fragmentation of primary care data.

The Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub: Protocol to Develop Extended COVID-19 Surveillance and Trial Platforms

BACKGROUND

Routinely recorded primary care data have been used for many years by sentinel networks for surveillance. More recently, real world data have been used for a wider range of research projects to support rapid, inexpensive clinical trials. Because the partial national lockdown in the United Kingdom due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in decreasing community disease incidence, much larger numbers of general practices are needed to deliver effective COVID-19 surveillance and contribute to in-pandemic clinical trials.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this protocol is to describe the rapid design and development of the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID) and its first two platforms. The Surveillance Platform will provide extended primary care surveillance, while the Trials Platform is a streamlined clinical trials platform that will be integrated into routine primary care practice.

METHODS

We will apply the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) metadata principles to a new, integrated digital health hub that will extract routinely collected general practice electronic health data for use in clinical trials and provide enhanced communicable disease surveillance. The hub will be findable through membership in Health Data Research UK and European metadata repositories. Accessibility through an online application system will provide access to study-ready data sets or developed custom data sets. Interoperability will be facilitated by fixed linkage to other key sources such as Hospital Episodes Statistics and the Office of National Statistics using pseudonymized data. All semantic descriptors (ie, ontologies) and code used for analysis will be made available to accelerate analyses. We will also make data available using common data models, starting with the US Food and Drug Administration Sentinel and Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership approaches, to facilitate international studies. The Surveillance Platform will provide access to data for health protection and promotion work as authorized through agreements between Oxford, the Royal College of General Practitioners, and Public Health England. All studies using the Trials Platform will go through appropriate ethical and other regulatory approval processes.

RESULTS

The hub will be a bottom-up, professionally led network that will provide benefits for member practices, our health service, and the population served. Data will only be used for SQUIRE (surveillance, quality improvement, research, and education) purposes. We have already received positive responses from practices, and the number of practices in the network has doubled to over 1150 since February 2020. COVID-19 surveillance has resulted in tripling of the number of virology sites to 293 (target 300), which has aided the collection of the largest ever weekly total of surveillance swabs in the United Kingdom as well as over 3000 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) serology samples. Practices are recruiting to the PRINCIPLE (Platform Randomised trial of INterventions against COVID-19 In older PeopLE) trial, and these participants will be followed up through ORCHID. These initial outputs demonstrate the feasibility of ORCHID to provide an extended national digital health hub.

CONCLUSIONS

ORCHID will provide equitable and innovative use of big data through a professionally led national primary care network and the application of FAIR principles. The secure data hub will host routinely collected general practice data linked to other key health care repositories for clinical trials and support enhanced in situ surveillance without always requiring large volume data extracts. ORCHID will support rapid data extraction, analysis, and dissemination with the aim of improving future research and development in general practice to positively impact patient care.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/19773.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 among patients in the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre primary care network: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There are few primary care studies of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to identify demographic and clinical risk factors for testing positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre primary care network.

METHODS

We analysed routinely collected, pseudonymised data for patients in the RCGP Research and Surveillance Centre primary care sentinel network who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between Jan 28 and April 4, 2020. We used multivariable logistic regression models with multiple imputation to identify risk factors for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests within this surveillance network.

FINDINGS

We identified 3802 SARS-CoV-2 test results, of which 587 were positive. In multivariable analysis, male sex was independently associated with testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (296 [18·4%] of 1612 men vs 291 [13·3%] of 2190 women; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·55, 95% CI 1·27-1·89). Adults were at increased risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared with children, and people aged 40-64 years were at greatest risk in the multivariable model (243 [18·5%] of 1316 adults aged 40-64 years vs 23 [4·6%] of 499 children; adjusted OR 5·36, 95% CI 3·28-8·76). Compared with white people, the adjusted odds of a positive test were greater in black people (388 [15·5%] of 2497 white people vs 36 [62·1%] of 58 black people; adjusted OR 4·75, 95% CI 2·65-8·51). People living in urban areas versus rural areas (476 [26·2%] of 1816 in urban areas vs 111 [5·6%] of 1986 in rural areas; adjusted OR 4·59, 95% CI 3·57-5·90) and in more deprived areas (197 [29·5%] of 668 in most deprived vs 143 [7·7%] of 1855 in least deprived; adjusted OR 2·03, 95% CI 1·51-2·71) were more likely to test positive. People with chronic kidney disease were more likely to test positive in the adjusted analysis (68 [32·9%] of 207 with chronic kidney disease vs 519 [14·4%] of 3595 without; adjusted OR 1·91, 95% CI 1·31-2·78), but there was no significant association with other chronic conditions in that analysis. We found increased odds of a positive test among people who are obese (142 [20·9%] of 680 people with obesity vs 171 [13·2%] of 1296 normal-weight people; adjusted OR 1·41, 95% CI 1·04-1·91). Notably, active smoking was linked with decreased odds of a positive test result (47 [11·4%] of 413 active smokers vs 201 [17·9%] of 1125 non-smokers; adjusted OR 0·49, 95% CI 0·34-0·71).

INTERPRETATION

A positive SARS-CoV-2 test result in this primary care cohort was associated with similar risk factors as observed for severe outcomes of COVID-19 in hospital settings, except for smoking. We provide evidence of potential sociodemographic factors associated with a positive test, including deprivation, population density, ethnicity, and chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Haematological abnormalities in new-onset rheumatoid arthritis and risk of common infections: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the prevalence of haematological abnormalities in individuals with RA at the point of diagnosis in primary care and the associations between haematological abnormalities, vaccinations and subsequent risk of common infections.

METHODS

We studied 6591 individuals with newly diagnosed RA between 2004 and 2016 inclusive using the UK Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre primary care database. The prevalence of haematological abnormalities at diagnosis (anaemia, neutropenia and lymphopenia) was established. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between each haematological abnormality and time to common infections and the influence of vaccination status (influenza and pneumococcal vaccine) on time to common infections in individuals with RA compared with a matched cohort of individuals without RA.

RESULTS

Anaemia was common at RA diagnosis (16.1% of individuals), with neutropenia (0.6%) and lymphopenia (1.4%) less so. Lymphopenia and anaemia were associated with increased infection risk [hazard ratio (HR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.08, 1.29) and HR 1.37 (95% CI 1.08, 1.73), respectively]. There was no evidence of an association between neutropenia and infection risk [HR 0.94 (95% CI 0.60, 1.47)]. Pneumonia was much more common in individuals with early RA compared with controls. Influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk of influenza-like illness only for individuals with RA [HR 0.58 (95% CI 0.37, 0.90)].

CONCLUSION

At diagnosis, anaemia and lymphopenia, but not neutropenia, increase the risk of common infections in individuals with RA. Our data support the effectiveness of the influenza vaccination in individuals with RA.

Forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England using multiple dynamic transmission models: a case study

Background

Since the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, Public Health England have developed a suite of real-time statistical models utilising enhanced pandemic surveillance data to nowcast and forecast a future pandemic. Their ability to track seasonal influenza and predict heightened winter healthcare burden in the light of high activity in Australia in 2017 was untested.

Methods

Four transmission models were used in forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England: a stratified primary care model using daily, region-specific, counts and virological swab positivity of influenza-like illness consultations in general practice (GP); a strain-specific (SS) model using weekly, national GP ILI and virological data; an intensive care model (ICU) using reports of ICU influenza admissions; and a synthesis model that included all data sources. For the first 12 weeks of 2018, each model was applied to the latest data to provide estimates of epidemic parameters and short-term influenza forecasts. The added value of pre-season population susceptibility data was explored.

Results

The combined results provided valuable nowcasts of the state of the epidemic. Short-term predictions of burden on primary and secondary health services were initially highly variable before reaching consensus beyond the observed peaks in activity between weeks 3–4 of 2018. Estimates for R₀ were consistent over time for three of the four models until week 12 of 2018, and there was consistency in the estimation of R₀ across the SPC and SS models, and in the ICU attack rates estimated by the ICU and the synthesis model. Estimation and predictions varied according to the assumed levels of pre-season immunity.

Conclusions

This exercise successfully applied a range of pandemic models to seasonal influenza. Forecasting early in the season remains challenging but represents a crucially important activity to inform planning. Improved knowledge of pre-existing levels of immunity would be valuable.

Household presentation of acute gastroenteritis in a primary care sentinel network: retrospective database studies

Background

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a highly transmissible condition spreading rapidly between individuals and within households. Rotavirus vaccination was introduced in the UK in 2013. The study objectives were to investigate how acute gastroenteritis incidence changed over 25 years and household incidence of AGE since 2013.

Methods

Repeated cross-sectional study of Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre network. We used a negative binomial model to report incidence rate ratio (IRR) using the last 5 years data. We also conducted a retrospective cohort analysis, using a shared gamma frailty model (2013–2017). We explored the impact of child under 5- years, household size, socioeconomic status quintile, and rurality.

Results

In the cross-sectional analysis, the IRR of AGE in households with a child of under 5 years was 12.20 (95%CI 11.08–13.45-, p < 0.001) compared with households without; the IRR fell across IMD quintiles, for example there is a 37% decrease in incidence comparing IMD quintile 1 to quintile 5 (95%CI -0.52-0.76, p < 0.001),

The cohort study revealed that the presence of an under 5 in the household was associated with a higher risk of household presentation (HR = 6.29, 95% CI 5.61–7.06, p < 0.001). In addition, we observe a reduction in risk of presentation from the most to the least deprived socioeconomic quintile (second quintile: HR = 0.74 (95%CI 0.59–0.92), to least deprived quintile, HR = 0.55 (95%CI 0.41–0.74). We saw a lower association with male gender, white ethnicity and living outside London, but an increased association with increasing household size.

Conclusions

The incidence of AGE has changed over time: pre-school children, larger households, and living in London were associated with higher rates, and male gender and higher economic status associated with lower rates.

Emergence of a Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19): Protocol for Extending Surveillance Used by the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre and Public Health England

Background

The Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE) have successfully worked together on the surveillance of influenza and other infectious diseases for over 50 years, including three previous pandemics. With the emergence of the international outbreak of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19), a UK national approach to containment has been established to test people suspected of exposure to COVID-19. At the same time and separately, the RCGP RSC’s surveillance has been extended to monitor the temporal and geographical distribution of COVID-19 infection in the community as well as assess the effectiveness of the containment strategy.

Objectives

The aims of this study are to surveil COVID-19 in both asymptomatic populations and ambulatory cases with respiratory infections, ascertain both the rate and pattern of COVID-19 spread, and assess the effectiveness of the containment policy.

Methods

The RCGP RSC, a network of over 500 general practices in England, extract pseudonymized data weekly. This extended surveillance comprises of five components: (1) Recording in medical records of anyone suspected to have or who has been exposed to COVID-19. Computerized medical records suppliers have within a week of request created new codes to support this. (2) Extension of current virological surveillance and testing people with influenza-like illness or lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI)—with the caveat that people suspected to have or who have been exposed to COVID-19 should be referred to the national containment pathway and not seen in primary care. (3) Serology sample collection across all age groups. This will be an extra blood sample taken from people who are attending their general practice for a scheduled blood test. The 100 general practices currently undertaking annual influenza virology surveillance will be involved in the extended virological and serological surveillance. (4) Collecting convalescent serum samples. (5) Data curation. We have the opportunity to escalate the data extraction to twice weekly if needed. Swabs and sera will be analyzed in PHE reference laboratories.

Results

General practice clinical system providers have introduced an emergency new set of clinical codes to support COVID-19 surveillance. Additionally, practices participating in current virology surveillance are now taking samples for COVID-19 surveillance from low-risk patients presenting with LRTIs. Within the first 2 weeks of setup of this surveillance, we have identified 3 cases: 1 through the new coding system, the other 2 through the extended virology sampling.

Conclusions

We have rapidly converted the established national RCGP RSC influenza surveillance system into one that can test the effectiveness of the COVID-19 containment policy. The extended surveillance has already seen the use of new codes with 3 cases reported. Rapid sharing of this protocol should enable scientific critique and shared learning.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/18606

Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are common causes of respiratory tract infections and place a burden on health services each winter. Systems to describe the timing and intensity of such activity will improve the public health response and deployment of interventions to these pressures. Here we develop early warning and activity intensity thresholds for monitoring influenza and RSV using two novel data sources: general practitioner out-of-hours consultations (GP OOH) and telehealth calls (NHS 111). Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) thresholds were developed for winter 2017-2018. The NHS 111 cold/flu threshold was breached several weeks in advance of other systems. The NHS 111 RSV epidemic threshold was breached in week 41, in advance of RSV laboratory reporting. Combining the use of MEM thresholds with daily monitoring of NHS 111 and GP OOH syndromic surveillance systems provides the potential to alert to threshold breaches in real-time. An advantage of using thresholds across different health systems is the ability to capture a range of healthcare-seeking behaviour, which may reflect differences in disease severity. This study also provides a quantifiable measure of seasonal RSV activity, which contributes to our understanding of RSV activity in advance of the potential introduction of new RSV vaccines.

Brand-specific enhanced safety surveillance of GSK's Fluarix Tetra seasonal influenza vaccine in England: 2017/2018 season

In compliance with the European Medicine Agency guidance to detect any potential safety concerns associated with influenza vaccination, an enhanced safety surveillance study was conducted in England during the 2017/18 influenza season. The primary objective was to estimate the incidence rates of adverse events occurring within seven days of vaccination with Fluarix Tetra. In nine General Practices, seasonal influenza vaccine was administered to patients according to local guidelines. Events following immunization were collected using customized cards (enhanced component) combined with electronic health records [EHRs] (EHR component) to estimate incidence rates of adverse events experienced post vaccination. The study ran from 01-Sep-2017 to 30-Nov-2017. A total of 23,939 subjects were vaccinated of whom 16,433 received Fluarix Tetra. The cumulative incidence rates of adverse events of interest for Fluarix Tetra were 7.25% [95% CI, 5.95–8.73] for events reported by card alone, and 9.21% [95% CI, 7.37–11.34] when combined with EHR data. The type and frequency of events reported were consistent with the Fluarix Tetra Summary of Product Characteristics. The study supports and confirms the safety profile of Fluarix Tetra.

ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT03278067

Trends in Factors Affecting Pregnancy Outcomes Among Women With Type 1 or Type 2 Diabetes of Childbearing Age (2004-2017)

AIM

To describe trends in modifiable and non-modifiable unfavorable factors affecting pregnancy outcomes, over time (years 2004-2017), in women with diabetes of childbearing age from an English primary care perspective.

METHODS

We identified women with diabetes aged 16-45 years from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network, an English primary care sentinel database. Repeated annual cross-sectional analyses (2004-2017) assessed the prevalence of unfavorable factors for pregnancy, such as obesity, poor glycaemic control, microalbuminuria, hypertension, use of medications for treating diabetes, and associated comorbidities not recommended for pregnancy.

RESULTS

We identified 3,218 women (61.5% with Type 2 diabetes) in 2004 and 6,657 (65.0% with Type 2 diabetes) in 2017. The proportion of women with ideal glycaemic control for conception (HbA1c<6.5%) increased over time, in patients with Type 1 diabetes from 9.0% (7.1%-11.0%) to 19.1% (17.2%-21.1%), and in those with Type 2 diabetes from 27.2% (24.6%-29.9%) to 35.4% (33.6%-37.1%). The proportion of women with Type 2 diabetes prescribed medications different from insulin and metformin rose from 22.3% (20.5%-24.2%) to 27.3% (26.0%-28.6%).In 2017, 14.0% (12.6%-15.4%) of women with Type 1 and 30.7% (29.3%-32.0%) with Type 2 diabetes were prescribed angiotensin-modulating antihypertensives or statins. We captured at least one unfavorable factor for pregnancy in 50.9% (48.8%-52.9%) of women with Type 1 diabetes and 70.7% (69.3%-72.0%) of women with Type 2 diabetes. Only one third of women with Type 1 diabetes (32.2%, 30.3%-34.0%) and a quarter of those with Type 2 diabetes (23.1%, 21.9%-24.4%) were prescribed hormonal contraception. Contraception was prescribed more frequently to women with unfavorable factors for pregnancy compared to those without, however, the difference was significant only for women with Type 1 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite significant improvements in general diabetes care, the majority of women with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes have unfavorable, although mostly modifiable, factors for the start of pregnancy. Good diabetes care for women of childbearing age should include taking into consideration a possible pregnancy.

Feasibility of Point-of-Care Testing for Influenza Within a National Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network in England: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study

Background

Point-of-care testing (POCT) for influenza promises to provide real-time information to influence clinical decision making and improve patient outcomes. Public Health England has published a toolkit to assist implementation of these tests in the UK National Health Service.

Objective

A feasibility study will be undertaken to assess the implementation of influenza POCT in primary care as part of a sentinel surveillance network.

Methods

We will conduct a mixed methods study to compare the sampling rates in practices using POCT and current virology swabbing practices not using POCT, and to understand the issues and barriers to implementation of influenza POCT in primary care workflows. The study will take place between March and May 2019. It will be nested in general practices that are part of the English national sentinel surveillance network run by the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. The primary outcome is the number of valid influenza swabs taken and tested by the practices involved in the study using the new POCT.

Results

A total of 6 practices were recruited, and data collection commenced on March 11, 2019. Moreover, 312 swab samples had been collected at the time of submission of the protocol, which was 32.5% (312/960) of the expected sample size. In addition, 68 samples were positive for influenza, which was 20.1% (68/338) of the expected sample size.

Conclusions

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time an evaluation study has been undertaken on POCT for influenza in general practice in the United Kingdom. This proposed study promises to shed light on the feasibility of implementation of POCT in primary care and on the views of practitioners about the use of influenza POCT in primary care, including its impact on primary care workflows.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/14186

Determinants of inter-practice variation in ADHD diagnosis and stimulant prescribing: cross-sectional database study of a national surveillance network

Early recognition, identification and treatment of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can reduce detrimental outcomes and redirect their developmental trajectory. We aimed to describe variations in age of ADHD diagnosis and stimulant prescribing among general practitioner practices in a nationwide network and identify child, parental, household and general practice factors that might account for these variations. Cross-sectional study of children aged under 19 years registered within a general practice in the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network in 2016, RCGP RSC has a household key allowing parent and child details to be linked. Data from 158 general practices and 353 774 children under 19 were included. The mean age of first ADHD diagnosis was 10.5 years (95% CI 10.1 to 10.9, median 10, IQR 9.0-11.9) and the mean percentage of children with ADHD prescribed stimulant medications among RCGP RSC practices was 41.2% (95% CI 38.7 to 43.6). There was wide inter-practice variation in the prevalence of diagnosis of ADHD, the age of diagnosis and stimulant prescribing. ADHD diagnosis is more likely to be made later in households with a greater number of children and with a larger age difference between adults and children. Stimulant prescribing for children with ADHD was higher in less deprived practices. Older parents and families with more children fail to recognise ADHD and may need more support. Practices in areas of higher socio-economic status are associated with greater prescribing of stimulants for children with ADHD.

Ontology to identify pregnant women in electronic health records: primary care sentinel network database study

Objective

To develop an ontology to identify pregnant women from computerised medical record systems with dissimilar coding systems in a primary care sentinel network.

Materials and methods

We used a three-step approach to develop our pregnancy ontology in two different coding schemata, one hierarchical and the other polyhierarchical. We developed a coding system–independent pregnancy case identification algorithm using the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sentinel network database which held 1.8 million patients’ data drawn from 150 primary care providers. We tested the algorithm by examining individual patient records in a 10% random sample of all women aged 29 in each year from 2004 to 2016. We did an external comparison with national pregnancy data. We used χ² test to compare results obtained for the two different coding schemata.

Results

243 005 women (median age 29 years at start of pregnancy) had 405 591 pregnancies from 2004 to 2016 of which 333 689 went to term. We found no significant difference between results obtained for two populations using different coding schemata. Pregnancy mean ages did not differ significantly from national data.

Discussion

This ontologically driven algorithm enables consistent analysis across data drawn from populations using different coding schemata. It could be applied to other hierarchical coding systems (eg, International Classification of Disease) or polyhierarchical systems (eg, SNOMED CT to which our health system is currently migrating).

Conclusion

This ontological approach will improve our surveillance in particular of influenza vaccine exposure in pregnancy.

Real-world prevalence of the inclusion criteria for the LEADER trial: Data from a national general practice network

AIMS

To explore the prevalence and describe the clinical characteristics of people with type 2 diabetes with a similar cardiovascular (CV) profile to that of the LEADER trial participants in a primary care setting in England.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this cross-sectional analysis, using the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network database, we identified people with type 2 diabetes meeting the LEADER inclusion criteria. We identified people's CV risk factors using computerized medical records. Additionally, we assessed the prescription pattern of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in this cohort.

RESULTS

Of 1 275 461 adults, we identified 84 394 with type 2 diabetes, of whom 14 000 (16.6%) met the LEADER inclusion criteria for established or high-risk CV disease (RCGP RSC-CVD group). The LEADER cohort was younger than the RCGP RSC-CVD group (64.2 vs 73.2 years), had higher mean glycated haemoglobin (71.6 vs 67.1 mmol/mol) and blood pressure (BP) values (systolic BP: 135.9 vs 132.9 mmHg; diastolic BP: 77.2 vs 72.7 mmHg), and a higher mean body mass index (32.5 vs 30.9 kg/m² ). In the RCGP RSC-CVD group, only 1215 people (8.7%) had ever been prescribed a GLP-1RA and 760 (5.4%) had ever received liraglutide.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of English general practice patients, one in six people with type 2 diabetes met the LEADER inclusion criteria, and less than one in 10 of these received liraglutide, a drug which has demonstrated CV benefits amongst others. There is scope to improve the outlook in people with type 2 diabetes and high CV risk through evidence-based use of specific GLP-1RAs.

Preconception health in England: a proposal for annual reporting with core metrics

There is growing interest in preconception health as a crucial period for influencing not only pregnancy outcomes, but also future maternal and child health, and prevention of long-term medical conditions. Successive national and international policy documents emphasise the need to improve preconception health, but resources and action have not followed through with these goals. We argue for a dual intervention strategy at both the public health level (eg, by improving the food environment) and at the individual level (eg, by better identification of those planning a pregnancy who would benefit from support to optimise health before conception) in order to raise awareness of preconception health and to normalise the notion of planning and preparing for pregnancy. Existing strategies that target common risks factors, such as obesity and smoking, should recognise the preconception period as one that offers special opportunity for intervention, based on evidence from life-course epidemiology, developmental (embryo) programming around the time of conception, and maternal motivation. To describe and monitor preconception health in England, we propose an annual report card using metrics from multiple routine data sources. Such a report card should serve to hold governments and other relevant agencies to account for delivering interventions to improve preconception health.

Intensification to injectable therapy in type 2 diabetes: mixed methods study (protocol)

BACKGROUND

In the UK, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is largely managed in primary care. Delay in the intensification to injectable therapy, a form of clinical inertia, is associated with worse glycaemic control. UK general practice is highly computerised, with care being recorded on computerised medical record systems; this allows for quantitative analysis of clinical care but not of the underpinning decision-making process. The aim of this study is to investigate perceptions of patients and clinicians in primary care on the initiation of injectable therapies in T2D, and the context within which those decisions are made.

METHODS

This is a mixed methods study, taking a "realist evaluation" approach. The qualitative components comprise focus groups, interviews, and video recordings of simulated surgeries; the quantitative analysis: an overview of participating practices, elements of the video recording, and an online survey. We will recruit primary care clinicians (general practitioners and nurses) and patients from a representative sample of practices within the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) network. Participants will be patients with T2D, and primary care clinicians. Focus groups and semi-structured interviews will be recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using Framework Analysis. The simulated surgeries will include cases that might be escalated to injectable therapy. The consultation will be reviewed using the Calgary-Cambridge model to assess communication and determination of adherence to national prescribing guidelines. We will conduct multi-channel video recording including screen capture, clinician and patient facial expressions, wide angle view of the consultation, and the computerised medical record screen. This allows annotation and qualitative analysis of the video recordings, and statistical analyses for the quantitative data. We will also conduct an online survey of primary care clinicians' attitudes to, and perceptions of, initiation of injectable therapies, which will be analysed using summary statistics.

DISCUSSION

Results aim to provide a detailed insight into the dynamic two-way decision-making process underpinning use of injectable therapy for T2D. The study will provide insights into clinical practice and enable the development of training, interventions and guidelines that may facilitate, where appropriate, the intensification to injectable therapy.

Enhanced passive surveillance of influenza vaccination in England, 2016-2017- an observational study using an adverse events reporting card

Influenza is a major public health burden, mainly prevented by vaccination. Recommendations on influenza vaccine composition are updated annually and constant benefit-risk monitoring is therefore needed. We conducted near-real-time enhanced passive surveillance (EPS) for the influenza vaccine, Fluarix Tetra, according to European Medicines Agency guidance, in 10 volunteer general practices in England using Fluarix Tetra as their principal influenza vaccine brand, from 1-Sep to 30-Nov-2016. The EPS method used a combination of routinely collected data from electronic health records (EHR) and a customized adverse events reporting card (AERC) distributed to participants vaccinated with Fluarix Tetra. For participants vaccinated with a different influenza vaccine, data were derived exclusively from the EHR. We reported weekly and cumulative incidence of pre-defined adverse events of interest (AEI) occurring within 7 days post-vaccination, adjusted for clustering effect. Of the 97,754 eligible participants, 19,334 (19.8%) received influenza vaccination, of whom 13,861 (71.7%) received Fluarix Tetra. A total of 1,049 participants receiving Fluarix Tetra reported AEIs; 703 (67%) used the AERC (adjusted cumulative incidence rate 4.96% [95% CI: 3.92−6.25]). Analysis by individual pre-specified AEI categories identified no safety signal for Fluarix Tetra. A total of 62 individuals reported an AEI with a known brand of non-GSK influenza vaccine and 54 with an unknown brand (adjusted cumulative incidence rate 2.59% [1.93−3.47] and 1.77% [1.42−2.20], respectively). In conclusion, the study identified no safety signal for Fluarix Tetra and showed that the AERC was a useful tool that complemented routine pharmacovigilance by allowing more comprehensive capture of AEIs.10.1080/21645515.2019.1565258-UF0001

Serological surveillance of influenza in an English sentinel network: pilot study protocol

BACKGROUND

Rapidly undertaken age-stratified serology studies can produce valuable data about a new emerging infection including background population immunity and seroincidence during an influenza pandemic. Traditionally seroepidemiology studies have used surplus laboratory sera with little or no clinical information or have been expensive detailed population based studies. We propose collecting population based sera from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), a sentinel network with extensive clinical data.

AIM

To pilot a mechanism to undertake population based surveys that collect serological specimens and associated patient data to measure seropositivity and seroincidence due to seasonal influenza, and create a population based serology bank. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Setting and Participants: We will recruit 6 RCGP RSC practices already taking nasopharyngeal virology swabs. Patients who attend a scheduled blood test will be consented to donate additional blood samples. Approximately 100-150 blood samples will be collected from each of the following age bands - 18- 29, 30- 39, 40- 49, 50- 59, 60- 69 and 70+ years.

METHODS

We will send the samples to the Public Health England (PHE) Seroepidemiology Unit for processing and storage. These samples will be tested for influenza antibodies, using haemagglutination inhibition assays. Serology results will be pseudonymised, sent to the RCGP RSC and combined using existing processes at the RCGP RSC secure hub. The influenza seroprevalence results from the RCGP cohort will be compared against those from the annual PHE influenza residual serosurvey.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was granted by the Proportionate Review Sub- Committee of the London - Camden & Kings Cross on 6 February 2018. This study received approval from Health Research Authority on 7 February 2018. On completion the results will be made available via peer-reviewed journals.

Determinants of inter-practice variation in childhood asthma and respiratory infections: cross-sectional study of a national sentinel network

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory infections are associated with acute exacerbations of asthma and accompanying morbidity and mortality. In this study we explore inter-practice variations in respiratory infections in children with asthma and study the effect of practice-level factors on these variations.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

We analysed data from 164 general practices in the Royal College of General PractitionersResearch and Surveillance Centresentinel network in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Children 5-12 years.

INTERVENTIONS

None. In this observational study, we used regression analysis to explore the impact of practice-level determinants on the number of respiratory infections in children with asthma.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We describe the distribution of childhood asthma and the determinants of upper/lower respiratory tract infections in these children.

RESULTS

83.5% (137/164) practices were in urban locations; the mean number of general practitioners per practice was 7; and the mean duration since qualification 19.7 years. We found almost 10-fold difference in the rate of asthma (1.5-11.8 per 100 children) and 50-fold variation in respiratory infection rates between practices. Larger practices with larger lists of asthmatic children had greater rates of respiratory infections among these children.

CONCLUSION

We showed that structural/environmental variables are consistent predictors of a range of respiratory infections among children with asthma. However, contradictory results between measures of practice clinical care show that a purely structural explanation for variability in respiratory infections is limited. Further research is needed to understand how the practice factors influence individual risk behaviours relevant to respiratory infections.

Conurbation, Urban, and Rural Living as Determinants of Allergies and Infectious Diseases: Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre Annual Report 2016-2017

BACKGROUND

Living in a conurbation, urban, or rural environment is an important determinant of health. For example, conurbation and rural living is associated with increased respiratory and allergic conditions, whereas a farm or rural upbringing has been shown to be a protective factor against this.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to assess differences in general practice presentations of allergic and infectious disease in those exposed to conurbation or urban living compared with rural environments.

METHODS

The population was a nationally representative sample of 175 English general practices covering a population of over 1.6 million patients registered with sentinel network general practices. General practice presentation rates per 100,000 population were reported for allergic rhinitis, asthma, and infectious conditions grouped into upper and lower respiratory tract infections, urinary tract infection, and acute gastroenteritis by the UK Office for National Statistics urban-rural category. We used multivariate logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, comorbidities, and smoking status, reporting odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

For allergic rhinitis, the OR was 1.13 (95% CI 1.04-1.23; P=.003) for urban and 1.29 (95% CI 1.19-1.41; P<.001) for conurbation compared with rural dwellers. Conurbation living was associated with a lower OR for both asthma (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.73; P<.001) and lower respiratory tract infections (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.98; P=.005). Compared with rural dwellers, the OR for upper respiratory tract infection was greater in urban (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.08; P<.001) but no different in conurbation dwellers (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.97-1.03; P=.93). Acute gastroenteritis followed the same pattern: the OR was 1.13 (95% CI 1.01-1.25; P=.03) for urban dwellers and 1.04 (95% CI 0.93-1.17; P=.46) for conurbation dwellers. The OR for urinary tract infection was lower for urban dwellers (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.89-0.99; P=.02) but higher in conurbation dwellers (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.13; P=.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Those living in conurbations or urban areas were more likely to consult a general practice for allergic rhinitis and upper respiratory tract infection. Both conurbation and rural living were associated with an increased risk of urinary tract infection. Living in rural areas was associated with an increased risk of asthma and lower respiratory tract infections. The data suggest that living environment may affect rates of consultations for certain conditions. Longitudinal analyses of these data would be useful in providing insights into important determinants.

Incidence of household transmission of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in a primary care sentinel network (1992-2017): cross-sectional and retrospective cohort study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is a highly transmissible condition. Determining characteristics of household transmission will facilitate development of prevention strategies and reduce the burden of this disease.We are carrying out this study to describe household transmission of medically attended AGE, and explore whether there is an increased incidence in households with young children.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study used the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care sentinel network, comprising data from 1 750 167 registered patients (August 2017 database). We conducted a novel analysis using a 'household key', to identify patients within the same household (n=811 027, mean 2.16 people). A 25-year repeated cross-sectional study will explore the incidence of medically attended AGE overall and then a 5-year retrospective cohort study will describe household transmission of AGE. The cross-sectional study will include clinical data for a 25-year period-1 January 1992 until the 31 December 2017. We will describe the incidence of AGE by age-band and gender, and trends in incidence. The 5-year study will use Poisson and quasi-Poisson regression to identify characteristics of individuals and households to predict medically attended AGE transmitted in the household. This will include whether the household contained a child under 5 years and the age category of the first index case (whether adult or child under 5 years). If there is overdispersion and zero-inflation we will compare results with negative binomial to handle these issues.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All RCGP RSC data are pseudonymised at the point of data extraction. No personally identifiable data are required for this investigation. The protocol follows STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology guidelines (STROBE). The study results will be published in a peer-review journal, the dataset will be available to other researchers.

Enhanced Safety Surveillance of Seasonal Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines in English Primary Care: Interim Analysis

Introduction

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) requires vaccine manufacturers to conduct enhanced safety surveillance (ESS) of seasonal influenza vaccines including a near real-time evaluation of collected data. The objective was to identify whether the use of passive surveillance or active surveillance provides different results of reported adverse events of interest (AEIs) by specified age strata and AEI type. We report the weekly incidence rates of AEIs within 7 days following seasonal influenza vaccination using passive and active surveillance.

Methods

AEIs were collected within 7 days of vaccination from ten general practices predominantly administering inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (IIV4, Fluarix Tetra, GSK). Vaccinees completed an adverse drug reaction (ADR) card. ADR card and medically attended AEIs data were recorded in practice electronic health records. We report the outcome of the first 5 weeks of safety surveillance (September 12, 2016–October 16, 2016); in an exploratory analysis, rates of AEI for IIV4 are compared to those passively reported through a sentinel network.

Results

Practices vaccinated 13.1% (12,864/98,091) of their registered population; 5.6% (95% CI 5.20–6.00) of them reported AEIs, none serious. The most frequent were respiratory 2.60% (95% CI 2.33–2.88), musculoskeletal 1.82% (95% CI 1.59–2.05) and neurological 1.05% (95% CI 0.88–1.23). AEIs were more frequently reported for adults than for children; 5.91% (95% CI 5.49–6.34) compared to 1.49% (95% CI 0.69–2.29); 47.18% of the adults reported AEI using the ADR card, none were returned for subjects < 18 years old. The frequency of AEIs reporting was higher, 6.88% (95% CI 6.35–7.42) vs. 3.30% (95% CI 2.68–3.96, 100/3028, p < 0.000), through ESS than passive surveillance.

Conclusion

The ESS did not reveal any safety signal and we demonstrated the feasibility of conducting ESS following EMA recommendations. The use of a customised ADR card led to a doubling of AEIs reports over passive surveillance in adults.

Funding

GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA, Wavre, Belgium.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12325-018-0747-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Incidence of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections and Atopic Conditions in Boys and Young Male Adults: Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre Annual Report 2015-2016

Background

The Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre comprises more than 150 general practices, with a combined population of more than 1.5 million, contributing to UK and European public health surveillance and research.

Objective

The aim of this paper was to report gender differences in the presentation of infectious and respiratory conditions in children and young adults.

Methods

Disease incidence data were used to test the hypothesis that boys up to puberty present more with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and asthma. Incidence rates were reported for infectious conditions in children and young adults by gender. We controlled for ethnicity, deprivation, and consultation rates. We report odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI, P values, and probability of presenting.

Results

Boys presented more with LRTI, largely due to acute bronchitis. The OR of males consulting was greater across the youngest 3 age bands (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.35-1.87; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.05-1.21; OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32). Allergic rhinitis and asthma had a higher OR of presenting in boys aged 5 to 14 years (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.37-1.68; OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.17-1.48). Upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and urinary tract infection (UTI) had lower odds of presenting in boys, especially those older than 15 years. The probability of presenting showed different patterns for LRTI, URTI, and atopic conditions.

Conclusions

Boys younger than 15 years have greater odds of presenting with LRTI and atopic conditions, whereas girls may present more with URTI and UTI. These differences may provide insights into disease mechanisms and for health service planning.