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Laffoley D, Baxter J, Amon D, Claudet J, Hall‐Spencer J, Grorud‐Colvert K, Levin L, Reid P, Rogers A, Taylor M, Woodall L, Andersen N. Evolving the narrative for protecting a rapidly changing ocean, post-COVID-19. AQUATIC CONSERVATION : MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS 2021; 31:1512-1534. [PMID: 33362396 PMCID: PMC7753556 DOI: 10.1002/aqc.3512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2020] [Revised: 10/06/2020] [Accepted: 10/08/2020] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
The ocean is the linchpin supporting life on Earth, but it is in declining health due to an increasing footprint of human use and climate change. Despite notable successes in helping to protect the ocean, the scale of actions is simply not now meeting the overriding scale and nature of the ocean's problems that confront us.Moving into a post-COVID-19 world, new policy decisions will need to be made. Some, especially those developed prior to the pandemic, will require changes to their trajectories; others will emerge as a response to this global event. Reconnecting with nature, and specifically with the ocean, will take more than good intent and wishful thinking. Words, and how we express our connection to the ocean, clearly matter now more than ever before.The evolution of the ocean narrative, aimed at preserving and expanding options and opportunities for future generations and a healthier planet, is articulated around six themes: (1) all life is dependent on the ocean; (2) by harming the ocean, we harm ourselves; (3) by protecting the ocean, we protect ourselves; (4) humans, the ocean, biodiversity, and climate are inextricably linked; (5) ocean and climate action must be undertaken together; and (6) reversing ocean change needs action now.This narrative adopts a 'One Health' approach to protecting the ocean, addressing the whole Earth ocean system for better and more equitable social, cultural, economic, and environmental outcomes at its core. Speaking with one voice through a narrative that captures the latest science, concerns, and linkages to humanity is a precondition to action, by elevating humankind's understanding of our relationship with 'planet Ocean' and why it needs to become a central theme to everyone's lives. We have only one ocean, we must protect it, now. There is no 'Ocean B'.
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Affiliation(s)
- D. Laffoley
- IUCN World Commission on Protected AreasIUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature)GlandSwitzerland
| | - J.M. Baxter
- Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland, School of Biology, East SandsUniversity of St AndrewsSt AndrewsUK
| | - D.J. Amon
- Department of Life SciencesNatural History MuseumLondonUK
| | - J. Claudet
- National Centre for Scientific ResearchPSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS‐EPHE‐UPVDParisFrance
| | - J.M. Hall‐Spencer
- School of Marine and Biological SciencesUniversity of PlymouthPlymouthUK
- Shimoda Marine Research CenterUniversity of TsukubaShimodaJapan
| | - K. Grorud‐Colvert
- Department of Integrative BiologyOregon State UniversityCorvallisUSA
| | - L.A. Levin
- Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California San DiegoLa JollaUSA
| | - P.C. Reid
- School of Marine and Biological SciencesUniversity of PlymouthPlymouthUK
- The LaboratoryThe Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, Marine Biological AssociationCitadel HillPlymouthUK
| | - A.D. Rogers
- Somerville CollegeUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- REV OceanLysakerNorway
| | | | - L.C. Woodall
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - N.F. Andersen
- Department of Environment and GeographyUniversity of YorkYorkUK
- Centre for Ecology and ConservationUniversity of ExeterPenrynUK
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102
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Giménez J, Cañadas A, de Stephanis R, Ramírez F. Expanding protected areas to encompass the conservation of the endangered common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the Alboran Sea. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 168:105305. [PMID: 33773411 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2021.105305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Revised: 03/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The Natura 2000 network is the centerpiece of the European Union conservation strategy to safeguard priority species and habitats. The question of whether other co-occurring species of conservation concern may also benefit from this network, however, remains largely unknown. Here, we used a systematic approach (MARXAN) for i) evaluating if the current Natura 2000 network in the Alboran Sea (western Mediterranean Sea), initially proposed to protect the common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and priority habitats, is also spatially protecting the endangered common dolphin (Delphinus delphis), and ii) identifying additional marine areas that should be protected to reach adequate conservation targets for the common dolphin. While the current Natura 2000 network encompass ca. 22% of predicted abundances for common dolphins, this percentage might be enhanced by protecting coastal areas nearby the Strait of Gibraltar. However, dolphins and fisheries largely overlap spatially nearby the coastline, and only segregate in offshore areas that represent the marginal distribution of the species. Thus, conservation decision-makers must achieve a trade-off between cetacean conservation and fisheries by combining an area-based approach (i.e., new protected areas close to the Strait of Gibraltar) together with a basin-wide threat-based approach (e.g., regulation of fisheries).
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Affiliation(s)
- Joan Giménez
- MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences (BEES), University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; Department of Conservation Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Américo Vespucio 26, Isla de la Cartuja, 41092, Sevilla, Spain.
| | - Ana Cañadas
- ALNILAM Research & Conservation, Pradillos 29, 28491 Navacerrada, Madrid, Spain; Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Renaud de Stephanis
- Conservation, Information and Research on Cetaceans (CIRCE), Cabeza de Manzaneda 3, 11390 Pelayo-Algeciras, Cádiz, Spain; Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico de Santander, Promontorio San Martín s/n 39004, Santander-Cantabria, Spain
| | - Francisco Ramírez
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Department of Renewable Marine Resources, Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta, 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
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103
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du Pontavice H, Gascuel D, Reygondeau G, Stock C, Cheung WWL. Climate-induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:2608-2622. [PMID: 33660891 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2020] [Revised: 02/17/2021] [Accepted: 02/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Climate change impacts on marine life in the world ocean are expected to accelerate over the 21st century, affecting the structure and functioning of food webs. We analyzed a key aspect of this issue, focusing on the impact of changes in biomass flow within marine food webs and the resulting effects on ecosystem biomass and production. We used a modeling framework based on a parsimonious quasi-physical representation of biomass flow through the food web, to explore the future of marine consumer biomass and production at the global scale over the 21st century. Biomass flow is determined by three climate-related factors: primary production entering the food web, trophic transfer efficiency describing losses in biomass transfers from one trophic level (TL) to the next, and flow kinetic measuring the speed of biomass transfers within the food web. Using climate projections of three earth system models, we calculated biomass and production at each TL on a 1° latitude ×1° longitude grid of the global ocean under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We show that the alterations of the trophic functioning of marine ecosystems, mainly driven by faster and less efficient biomass transfers and decreasing primary production, would lead to a projected decline in total consumer biomass by 18.5% by 2090-2099 relative to 1986-2005 under the "no mitigation policy" scenario. The projected decrease in transfer efficiency is expected to amplify impacts at higher TLs, leading to a 21.3% decrease in abundance of predators and thus to a change in the overall trophic structure of marine ecosystems. Marine animal production is also projected to decline but to a lesser extent than biomass. Our study highlights that the temporal and spatial projected changes in biomass and production would imply direct repercussions on the future of world fisheries and beyond all services provided by Ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hubert du Pontavice
- ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Didier Gascuel
- ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Charles Stock
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - William W L Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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104
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Bellquist L, Saccomanno V, Semmens BX, Gleason M, Wilson J. The rise in climate change-induced federal fishery disasters in the United States. PeerJ 2021; 9:e11186. [PMID: 33981495 PMCID: PMC8071068 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.11186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2020] [Accepted: 03/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Commercial, recreational, and indigenous fisheries are critical to coastal economies and communities in the United States. For over three decades, the federal government has formally recognized the impact of fishery disasters via federal declarations. Despite these impacts, national syntheses of the dynamics, impacts, and causes of fishery disasters are lacking. We developed a nationwide Federal Fishery Disaster database using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) fishery disaster declarations and fishery revenue data. From 1989-2020, there were 71 federally approved fishery disasters (eleven are pending), which spanned every federal fisheries management region and coastal state in the country. To date, we estimate fishery disasters resulted in $2B (2019 USD) in Congressional allocations, and an additional, conservative estimate of $3.2B (2019 USD) in direct revenue loss. Despite this scale of impact, the disaster assistance process is largely ad hoc and lacks sufficient detail to properly assess allocation fairness and benefit. Nonetheless, fishery disasters increased in frequency over time, and the causes of disasters included a broad range of anthropogenic and environmental factors, with a recent shift to disasters now almost exclusively caused by extreme environmental events (e.g., marine heatwaves, hurricanes, and harmful algal blooms). Nationwide, 84.5% of fishery disasters were either partially or entirely attributed to extreme environmental events. As climate change drives higher rates of such extreme events, and as natural disaster assistance requests reach an all-time high, the federal system for fisheries disaster declaration and mitigation must evolve in order to effectively protect both fisheries sustainability and societal benefit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lyall Bellquist
- California Oceans Program, The Nature Conservancy, San Diego, CA, United States of America.,Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
| | - Vienna Saccomanno
- California Oceans Program, The Nature Conservancy, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America
| | - Brice X Semmens
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
| | - Mary Gleason
- California Oceans Program, The Nature Conservancy, Monterey, CA, United States of America
| | - Jono Wilson
- California Oceans Program, The Nature Conservancy, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America.,Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
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105
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Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:1921854118. [PMID: 33876741 PMCID: PMC8053992 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1921854118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.
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106
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Yin J, Xu J, Xue Y, Xu B, Zhang C, Li Y, Ren Y. Evaluating the impacts of El Niño events on a marine bay ecosystem based on selected ecological network indicators. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 763:144205. [PMID: 33360958 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2020] [Revised: 11/23/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
El Niño events have great impacts on marine ecosystems worldwide, ranging from low trophic plankton production to fishery resources. Understanding how ecosystems respond to El Niño is the key to the success of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). However, few studies have focussed on the ecosystems respond to this natural perturbation in China seas, and the selection of effective ecological network analyses (ENA) indicators to evaluate the ecosystem response under El Niño conditions needs to be assessed. In this study, we constructed Ecopath models for Haizhou Bay in ENSO-neutral (2013) and El Niño (2015) years. Comprehensive analyses were conducted to evaluate ENA indicators in terms of sensitivity to the ecosystem variations, robustness to the model parameters uncertainties, and statistical check. Results showed that there were obvious variations in the species composition and biomass in the Haizhou Bay ecosystem under the El Niño event. Four optimal ENA indicators were selected, including total system throughput, total primary production, total system non-cycled throughflow, and ascendency. The indicators further showed a shrunken ecosystem size, increased energetic efficiency, and less organised ecosystem under the El Niño event. These findings enhance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and underscore the need for precautionary management under El Niño conditions. Moreover, this work can be helpful in guiding the further selection of ENA indicators for evaluating and managing marine ecosystems during El Niño events elsewhere and thusly contribute to the implementation of EBFM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Yin
- Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China
| | - Jun Xu
- Laboratory for Marine Fisheries and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China; Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430072, China
| | - Ying Xue
- Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China
| | - Binduo Xu
- Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China
| | - Chongliang Zhang
- Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China
| | - Yunzhou Li
- Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China; School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, ME 04469, USA
| | - Yiping Ren
- Laboratory of Fisheries Ecosystem Monitoring and Assessment, College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; Laboratory for Marine Fisheries and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China; Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China.
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107
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Melbourne-Thomas J, Audzijonyte A, Brasier MJ, Cresswell KA, Fogarty HE, Haward M, Hobday AJ, Hunt HL, Ling SD, McCormack PC, Mustonen T, Mustonen K, Nye JA, Oellermann M, Trebilco R, van Putten I, Villanueva C, Watson RA, Pecl GT. Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution. REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES 2021; 32:231-251. [PMID: 33814734 PMCID: PMC8006506 DOI: 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2020] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jess Melbourne-Thomas
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Asta Audzijonyte
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Madeleine J. Brasier
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Katherine A. Cresswell
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Hannah E. Fogarty
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Marcus Haward
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Alistair J. Hobday
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Heather L. Hunt
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of New Brunswick, Saint John, NB Canada
| | - Scott D. Ling
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Phillipa C. McCormack
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
- Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | | | | | - Janet A. Nye
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina At Chapel Hill, Morehead City, NY USA
| | - Michael Oellermann
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
- Aquatic Systems Biology Unit, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Rowan Trebilco
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Ingrid van Putten
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Cecilia Villanueva
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Reg A. Watson
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
| | - Gretta T. Pecl
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS Australia
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108
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Leeuwis RHJ, Zanuzzo FS, Peroni EFC, Gamperl AK. Research on sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) suggests that limited capacity to increase heart function leaves hypoxic fish susceptible to heat waves. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20202340. [PMID: 33715435 PMCID: PMC7944113 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Accepted: 02/11/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Studies of heart function and metabolism have been used to predict the impact of global warming on fish survival and distribution, and their susceptibility to acute and chronic temperature increases. Yet, despite the fact that hypoxia and high temperatures often co-occur, only one study has examined the effects of hypoxia on fish thermal tolerance, and the consequences of hypoxia for fish cardiac responses to acute warming have not been investigated. We report that sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) did not increase heart rate or cardiac output when warmed while hypoxic, and that this response was associated with reductions in maximum O2 consumption and thermal tolerance (CTmax) of 66% and approximately 3°C, respectively. Further, acclimation to hypoxia for four to six months did not substantially alter the sablefish's temperature-dependent physiological responses or improve its CTmax. These results provide novel, and compelling, evidence that hypoxia can impair the cardiac and metabolic response to increased temperatures in fish, and suggest that some coastal species may be more vulnerable to climate change-related heat waves than previously thought. Further, they support research showing that cross-tolerance and physiological plasticity in fish following hypoxia acclimation are limited.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robine H. J. Leeuwis
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada A1C 5S7
| | - Fábio S. Zanuzzo
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada A1C 5S7
| | - Ellen F. C. Peroni
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada A1C 5S7
| | - A. Kurt Gamperl
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, NL, Canada A1C 5S7
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109
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Heinze C, Blenckner T, Martins H, Rusiecka D, Döscher R, Gehlen M, Gruber N, Holland E, Hov Ø, Joos F, Matthews JBR, Rødven R, Wilson S. The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2008478118. [PMID: 33619085 PMCID: PMC7936299 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008478118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christoph Heinze
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Helena Martins
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Dagmara Rusiecka
- Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway
| | - Ralf Döscher
- Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Marion Gehlen
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex, France
| | - Nicolas Gruber
- Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Elisabeth Holland
- Pacific Centre for the Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji
| | - Øystein Hov
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0371 Oslo, Norway
- The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 0271 Oslo, Norway
| | - Fortunat Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - John Brian Robin Matthews
- School of Architecture, Computing and Engineering, University of East London, E16 2RD, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rolf Rødven
- Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Simon Wilson
- Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
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110
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Dutkiewicz S, Boyd PW, Riebesell U. Exploring biogeochemical and ecological redundancy in phytoplankton communities in the global ocean. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1196-1213. [PMID: 33342048 PMCID: PMC7986797 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15493] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2020] [Revised: 12/07/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Climate-change-induced alterations of oceanic conditions will lead to the ecological niches of some marine phytoplankton species disappearing, at least regionally. How will such losses affect the ecosystem and the coupled biogeochemical cycles? Here, we couch this question in terms of ecological redundancy (will other species be able to fill the ecological roles of the extinct species) and biogeochemical redundancy (can other species replace their biogeochemical roles). Prior laboratory and field studies point to a spectrum in the degree of redundancy. We use a global three-dimensional computer model with diverse planktonic communities to explore these questions further. The model includes 35 phytoplankton types that differ in size, biogeochemical function and trophic strategy. We run two series of experiments in which single phytoplankton types are either partially or fully eliminated. The niches of the targeted types were not completely reoccupied, often with a reduction in the transfer of matter from autotrophs to heterotrophs. Primary production was often decreased, but sometimes increased due to reduction in grazing pressure. Complex trophic interactions (such as a decrease in the stocks of a predator's grazer) led to unexpected reshuffling of the community structure. Alterations in resource utilization may cause impacts beyond the regions where the type went extinct. Our results suggest a lack of redundancy, especially in the 'knock on' effects on higher trophic levels. Redundancy appeared lowest for types on the edges of trait space (e.g. smallest) or with unique competitive strategies. Though highly idealized, our modelling findings suggest that the results from laboratory or field studies often do not adequately capture the ramifications of functional redundancy. The modelled, often counterintuitive, responses-via complex food web interactions and bottom-up versus top-down controls-indicate that changes in planktonic community will be key determinants of future ocean global change ecology and biogeochemistry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Dutkiewicz
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary SciencesMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeMAUSA
- Center for Global Change ScienceMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeMAUSA
| | - Philip W. Boyd
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesUniversity of TasmaniaHobartTas.Australia
| | - Ulf Riebesell
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research KielKielGermany
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111
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Gissi E, Manea E, Mazaris AD, Fraschetti S, Almpanidou V, Bevilacqua S, Coll M, Guarnieri G, Lloret-Lloret E, Pascual M, Petza D, Rilov G, Schonwald M, Stelzenmüller V, Katsanevakis S. A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 755:142564. [PMID: 33035971 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Revised: 09/11/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena Gissi
- IUAV University of Venice, Tolentini 191, Santa Croce, 30135 Venice, Italy.
| | - Elisabetta Manea
- IUAV University of Venice, Tolentini 191, Santa Croce, 30135 Venice, Italy
| | - Antonios D Mazaris
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Simonetta Fraschetti
- Università Federico II di Napoli, Napoli, Italy; Consorzio Universitario per le Scienze del Mare, P.le Flaminio 9, 00196 Rome, Italy; Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Napoli, Italy
| | - Vasiliki Almpanidou
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Stanislao Bevilacqua
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy; Consorzio Universitario per le Scienze del Mare, P.le Flaminio 9, 00196 Rome, Italy
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science, ICM-CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, no 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Giuseppe Guarnieri
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Technologies, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy; Consorzio Universitario per le Scienze del Mare, P.le Flaminio 9, 00196 Rome, Italy
| | - Elena Lloret-Lloret
- Institute of Marine Science, ICM-CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, no 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Pascual
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Edificio Sede N°1 Planta 1/Parque Científico UPV-EHU, Barrio Sarriena, s/n, 48940 Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain
| | - Dimitra Petza
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece; Directorate for Fisheries Policy & Fishery Resources Utilisation, Directorate General for Fisheries, Ministry of Rural Development & Food, 150 Syggrou Avenue, 17671 Athens, Greece
| | - Gil Rilov
- Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, National Institute of Oceanography, P.O. Box 8030, Haifa 31080, Israel
| | - Maura Schonwald
- Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, National Institute of Oceanography, P.O. Box 8030, Haifa 31080, Israel
| | | | - Stelios Katsanevakis
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
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112
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Bueno-Pardo J, Nobre D, Monteiro JN, Sousa PM, Costa EFS, Baptista V, Ovelheiro A, Vieira VMNCS, Chícharo L, Gaspar M, Erzini K, Kay S, Queiroga H, Teodósio MA, Leitão F. Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal. Sci Rep 2021; 11:2958. [PMID: 33536581 PMCID: PMC7858592 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-82595-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
This is the first attempt to apply an expert-based ecological vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on the main marine resources of Portugal. The vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and expected directional effects of 74 species of fish and invertebrates of commercial interest is estimated based on criteria related to their life-history and level of conservation or exploitation. This analysis is performed separately for three regions of Portugal and two scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To do that, the fourth assessment report IPCC framework for vulnerability assessments was coupled to the outputs of a physical-biogeochemical model allowing to weight the exposure of the species by the expected variability of the environmental variables in the future. The highest vulnerabilities were found for some migratory and elasmobranch species, although overall vulnerability scores were low probably due to the high adaptive capacity of species from temperate ecosystems. Among regions, the highest average vulnerability was estimated for the species in the Central region while higher vulnerabilities were identified under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 in the three regions, due to higher expected climatic variability. This work establishes the basis for the assessment of the vulnerability of the human activities relying on marine resources in the context of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Bueno-Pardo
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal.
| | - Daniela Nobre
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - João N Monteiro
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Pedro M Sousa
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Eudriano F S Costa
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Vânia Baptista
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Andreia Ovelheiro
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Vasco M N C S Vieira
- Maretec, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Luís Chícharo
- CIMA, Faculdade de Ciência e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Miguel Gaspar
- Centro de Olhão, Instituto Português do Mar e a Atmósfera (IPMA), 8700-305, Olhão, Portugal
| | - Karim Erzini
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Susan Kay
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Henrique Queiroga
- Departamento de Biologia e Centro de Estudos do Ambiente e do Mar (CESAM), Universidade de Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193, Aveiro, Portugal
| | - Maria A Teodósio
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
| | - Francisco Leitão
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139, Faro, Portugal
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113
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Goertler P, Mahardja B, Sommer T. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis) migration timing driven by estuary outflow and sea surface temperature in the San Francisco Bay-Delta, California. Sci Rep 2021; 11:1510. [PMID: 33452283 PMCID: PMC7810903 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-80517-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 12/16/2020] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
The influence of climate on the timing of large-scale animal migrations is a major ecological and resource management concern. Anadromous fish migrations can have broad scale impacts on human communities and marine, aquatic and terrestrial food webs. However, isolating the effects of climate change on the timing of life stage transitions for anadromous fish species is challenging. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis) exhibit striking variation in migration patterns within their natural range, including migratory behaviors that change with latitude, and climate-induced temperature changes are predicted to drive future habitat and distribution changes. Here we explore the linkages between migration and multiple components of coastal and inland aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change. By leveraging environmental and fisheries monitoring which began in 1969, we describe the upstream migration timing of non-native adult Striped bass influenced by estuary outflow and sea surface temperature in the San Francisco Bay-Delta, California. Striped bass migrated later in years when Delta outflow was greater and sea surface temperature was cooler. It is likely that temperature thresholds in the ocean during the springtime provide a cue for Striped bass to initiate migration, but sea surface temperature may also represent composite climatic trends influencing Striped bass. Further, the observed variation in migration timing of adult Striped bass has implications for predation risk on the seaward-migration of juvenile Chinook salmon.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascale Goertler
- grid.427509.d0000 0004 0606 2237California Department of Water Resources, Division of Environmental Services, 3500 Industrial Blvd, West Sacramento, CA 95691 USA
| | - Brian Mahardja
- grid.462979.70000 0001 2287 7477United States Fish and Wildlife Service, 850 S Guild Ave #105, Lodi, CA 95240 USA
| | - Ted Sommer
- grid.427509.d0000 0004 0606 2237California Department of Water Resources, Division of Environmental Services, 3500 Industrial Blvd, West Sacramento, CA 95691 USA
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114
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Nash KL, Alexander K, Melbourne-Thomas J, Novaglio C, Sbrocchi C, Villanueva C, Pecl GT. Developing achievable alternate futures for key challenges during the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES 2021; 32:19-36. [PMID: 33424142 PMCID: PMC7778847 DOI: 10.1007/s11160-020-09629-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2020] [Accepted: 11/27/2020] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
The oceans face a range of complex challenges for which the impacts on society are highly uncertain but mostly negative. Tackling these challenges is testing society's capacity to mobilise transformative action, engendering a sense of powerlessness. Envisaging positive but realistic visions of the future, and considering how current knowledge, resources, and technology could be used to achieve these futures, may lead to greater action to achieve sustainable transformations. Future Seas (www.FutureSeas2030.org) brought together researchers across career stages, Indigenous Peoples and environmental managers to develop scenarios for 12 challenges facing the oceans, leveraging interdisciplinary knowledge to improve society's capacity to purposefully shape the direction of marine social-ecological systems over the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030). We describe and reflect on Future Seas, providing guidance for co-developing scenarios in interdisciplinary teams tasked with exploring ocean futures. We detail the narrative development for two futures: our current trajectory based on published evidence, and a more sustainable future, consistent with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, which is technically achievable using existing and emerging knowledge. Presentation of Business-as-usual and More Sustainable futures-together-allows communication of both trajectories, whilst also highlighting achievable, sustainable versions of the future. The advantages of the interdisciplinary approach taken include: (1) integrating different perspectives on solutions, (2) capacity to explore interactions between Life Under Water (Goal 14) and other SDGs, and (3) cross-disciplinary learning. This approach allowed participants to conceptualise shared visions of the future and co-design transformative pathways to achieving those futures. Supplementary Information SI The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s11160-020-09629-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirsty L. Nash
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Karen Alexander
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Jess Melbourne-Thomas
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, TAS 7004 Australia
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, TAS 7004 Australia
| | - Carla Sbrocchi
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, 2007 Australia
| | - Cecilia Villanueva
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
| | - Gretta T. Pecl
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, TAS 7001 Australia
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115
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Tittensor DP, Novaglio C, Harrison CS, Heneghan RF, Barrier N, Bianchi D, Bopp L, Bryndum-Buchholz A, Britten GL, Büchner M, Cheung WWL, Christensen V, Coll M, Dunne JP, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Fernandes-Salvador JA, Fulton EA, Galbraith ED, Gascuel D, Guiet J, John JG, Link JS, Lotze HK, Maury O, Ortega-Cisneros K, Palacios-Abrantes J, Petrik CM, du Pontavice H, Rault J, Richardson AJ, Shannon L, Shin YJ, Steenbeek J, Stock CA, Blanchard JL. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2021; 11:973-981. [PMID: 34745348 PMCID: PMC8556156 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Cheryl S. Harrison
- School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX USA
- Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA USA
| | - Ryan F. Heneghan
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Nicolas Barrier
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Daniele Bianchi
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Laurent Bopp
- LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
| | | | - Gregory L. Britten
- Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA USA
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - John P. Dunne
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador Canada
| | - Jason D. Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales Australia
| | | | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec Canada
| | - Didier Gascuel
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
| | - Jasmin G. John
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | | | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI USA
| | - Colleen M. Petrik
- Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX USA
| | - Hubert du Pontavice
- UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae, Rennes, France
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Jonathan Rault
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Anthony J. Richardson
- School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland Australia
| | - Lynne Shannon
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France
| | - Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Charles A. Stock
- NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
- Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
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116
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Eddy TD, Bernhardt JR, Blanchard JL, Cheung WW, Colléter M, du Pontavice H, Fulton EA, Gascuel D, Kearney KA, Petrik CM, Roy T, Rykaczewski RR, Selden R, Stock CA, Wabnitz CC, Watson RA. Energy Flow Through Marine Ecosystems: Confronting Transfer Efficiency. Trends Ecol Evol 2021; 36:76-86. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.09.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2020] [Revised: 08/18/2020] [Accepted: 09/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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117
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MOORE CHRIS, MORLEY JAMESW, MORRISON BRIAN, KOLIAN MICHAEL, HORSCH ERIC, FRÖLICHER THOMAS, PINSKY MALINL, GRIFFIS ROGER. ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES. CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS 2020; N/A:10.1142/s2010007821500020. [PMID: 33628400 PMCID: PMC7900876 DOI: 10.1142/s2010007821500020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278-901 million by 2100.
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Affiliation(s)
- CHRIS MOORE
- National Center for Environmental Economics, United States Environmental Protection Agency 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW (MC 1809T), Washington, DC 20460, USA
| | - JAMES W. MORLEY
- Department of Biology, Coastal Studies Institute, East Carolina University, ECU Outer Banks Campus 850 NC 345, Wanchese, NC 27981, USA
| | - BRIAN MORRISON
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | | | - ERIC HORSCH
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | - THOMAS FRÖLICHER
- Climate and Environmental Physics Division (CEP), Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern Hochschulstrasse 4, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - MALIN L. PINSKY
- Department of Ecology Evolution and Natural Resources, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
| | - ROGER GRIFFIS
- Office of Science and Technology National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1335 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
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118
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Asnaghi V, Chindris A, Leggieri F, Scolamacchia M, Brundu G, Guala I, Loi B, Chiantore M, Farina S. Decreased pH impairs sea urchin resistance to predatory fish: A combined laboratory-field study to understand the fate of top-down processes in future oceans. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 162:105194. [PMID: 33126114 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2020] [Revised: 10/07/2020] [Accepted: 10/11/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Changing oceans represent a serious threat for a wide range of marine organisms, with severe cascading effects on ecosystems and their services. Sea urchins are particularly sensitive to decreased pH expected for the end of the century and their key ecological role in regulating community structure and functioning could be seriously compromised. An integrated approach of laboratory and field experiments has been implemented to investigate the effects of decreased pH on predator-prey interaction involving sea urchins and their predators. Our results suggest that under future Ocean Acidification scenarios adult sea urchins defence strategies, such as spine length, test robustness and oral plate thickness, could be compromised together with their survival chance to natural predators. Sea urchins represent the critical linkage between top-down and bottom-up processes along Mediterranean rocky reefs, and the cumulative impacts of global and local stressors could lead to a decline producing cascading effects on benthic ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- V Asnaghi
- DISTAV, University of Genoa, C.so Europa 26, 16132, Genoa, Italy.
| | - A Chindris
- IMC - International Marine Centre, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy
| | - F Leggieri
- IMC - International Marine Centre, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy; CNR - National Research Council, IAS - Institute of Anthropic Impacts and Sustainability in Marine Environment, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy
| | - M Scolamacchia
- IMC - International Marine Centre, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy; CNR - National Research Council, IAS - Institute of Anthropic Impacts and Sustainability in Marine Environment, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy
| | - G Brundu
- IMC - International Marine Centre, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy
| | - I Guala
- IMC - International Marine Centre, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy
| | - B Loi
- IMC - International Marine Centre, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy
| | - M Chiantore
- DISTAV, University of Genoa, C.so Europa 26, 16132, Genoa, Italy
| | - S Farina
- IMC - International Marine Centre, Loc. Sa Mardini, Torre Grande, 09170, Oristano, Italy
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119
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Abstract
Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.
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120
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Alabia ID, Molinos JG, Saitoh SI, Hirata T, Hirawake T, Mueter FJ. Multiple facets of marine biodiversity in the Pacific Arctic under future climate. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 744:140913. [PMID: 32721679 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140913] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2020] [Revised: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 07/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is triggering a global reorganization of marine life. Biogeographical transition zones, diversity-rich regions straddling biogeographical units where many species live at, or close to, their physiological tolerance limits (i.e., range distribution edges), are redistribution hotspots that offer a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate-driven thermophilization processes in natural communities. In this context, we examined the impacts of climate change projections in the 21st century (2026-2100) on marine biodiversity in the Eastern Bering and Chukchi seas within the Pacific Arctic, a climatically exposed and sensitive boreal-to-Arctic transition zone. Overall, projected changes in species distributions, modeled using species distribution models, resulted in poleward increases in species richness and functional redundancy, along with pronounced reductions in phylogenetic distances by century's end (2076-2100). Future poleward shifts of boreal species in response to warming and sea ice changes are projected to alter the taxonomic and functional biogeography of contemporary Arctic communities as larger, longer-lived and more predatory taxa expand their leading distributional margins. Drawing from the existing evidence from other Arctic regions, these changes are anticipated to increase the susceptibility and vulnerability of the Arctic ecosystems, as trophic connectance between biological components increases, thus decreasing the modularity of Arctic food webs. Our results demonstrate how integrating multiple diversity facets can provide key insights into the relationships between climate change, species composition and ecosystem functioning across marine biogeographic regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Irene D Alabia
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan.
| | - Jorge García Molinos
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan; Global Station for Arctic Research, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Sei-Ichi Saitoh
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan
| | - Takafumi Hirata
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan; Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Toru Hirawake
- Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 041-8611 Hakodate, Japan
| | - Franz J Mueter
- College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, AK, 99801 United States of America
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121
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Enhanced fish production during a period of extreme global warmth. Nat Commun 2020; 11:5636. [PMID: 33159071 PMCID: PMC7648762 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19462-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 10/16/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Marine ecosystem models predict a decline in fish production with anthropogenic ocean warming, but how fish production equilibrates to warming on longer timescales is unclear. We report a positive nonlinear correlation between ocean temperature and pelagic fish production during the extreme global warmth of the Early Paleogene Period (62-46 million years ago [Ma]). Using data-constrained modeling, we find that temperature-driven increases in trophic transfer efficiency (the fraction of production passed up trophic levels) and primary production can account for the observed increase in fish production, while changes in predator-prey interactions cannot. These data provide new insight into upper-trophic-level processes constrained from the geological record, suggesting that long-term warming may support more productive food webs in subtropical pelagic ecosystems.
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122
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Tagliabue A, Barrier N, Du Pontavice H, Kwiatkowski L, Aumont O, Bopp L, Cheung WWL, Gascuel D, Maury O. An iron cycle cascade governs the response of equatorial Pacific ecosystems to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:6168-6179. [PMID: 32970390 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2020] [Revised: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 08/09/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Earth System Models project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production (NPP), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, projections from Earth System Models are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for NPP over large parts of the ocean. In this study, we show that the climate change trends in NPP and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. Using a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional NPP range from -12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. This wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. Those scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected NPP declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. All model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter-annual variations in regional ocean NPP, largely due to limited change in the historical period. Ultimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%-80% across all plausible scenarios. Overall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. This highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Nicolas Barrier
- MARBEC (IRD, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer), Sète, France
| | - Hubert Du Pontavice
- ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, Rennes, France
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Olivier Aumont
- LOCEAN, Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
| | | | - William W L Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Didier Gascuel
- ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Institut Agro, Rennes, France
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC (IRD, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer), Sète, France
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124
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A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 4:1459-1471. [PMID: 32929239 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-01298-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2019] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.
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125
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven L Chown
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia.
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126
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Maltby KM, Rutterford LA, Tinker J, Genner MJ, Simpson SD. Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf. J Appl Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine M. Maltby
- Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft UK
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
| | - Louise A. Rutterford
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | | | - Martin J. Genner
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | - Stephen D. Simpson
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
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127
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Schiettekatte NMD, Barneche DR, Villéger S, Allgeier JE, Burkepile DE, Brandl SJ, Casey JM, Mercière A, Munsterman KS, Morat F, Parravicini V. Nutrient limitation, bioenergetics and stoichiometry: A new model to predict elemental fluxes mediated by fishes. Funct Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Nina M. D. Schiettekatte
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS USR 3278 CRIOBE Université de Perpignan Perpignan France
- Laboratoire d'Excellence “CORAIL” Perpignan France
| | - Diego R. Barneche
- Australian Institute of Marine Science Crawley WA Australia
- Oceans InstituteThe University of Western Australia Crawley WA Australia
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Penryn UK
| | | | - Jacob E. Allgeier
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA
| | - Deron E. Burkepile
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology University of California Santa Barbara CA USA
- Marine Science Institute University of California Santa Barbara CA USA
| | - Simon J. Brandl
- Department of Biological Sciences Simon Fraser University Burnaby BC Canada
| | - Jordan M. Casey
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS USR 3278 CRIOBE Université de Perpignan Perpignan France
- Laboratoire d'Excellence “CORAIL” Perpignan France
| | - Alexandre Mercière
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS USR 3278 CRIOBE Université de Perpignan Perpignan France
- Laboratoire d'Excellence “CORAIL” Perpignan France
| | - Katrina S. Munsterman
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA
| | - Fabien Morat
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS USR 3278 CRIOBE Université de Perpignan Perpignan France
- Laboratoire d'Excellence “CORAIL” Perpignan France
| | - Valeriano Parravicini
- PSL Université Paris: EPHE‐UPVD‐CNRS USR 3278 CRIOBE Université de Perpignan Perpignan France
- Laboratoire d'Excellence “CORAIL” Perpignan France
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128
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Edmunds PJ, Putnam HM. Science-based approach to using growth rate to assess coral performance and restoration outcomes. Biol Lett 2020; 16:20200227. [PMID: 32673540 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2020.0227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
One response to the coral reef crisis has been human intervention to enhance selection on the fittest corals through cultivation. This requires genotypes to be identified for intervention, with a primary basis for this choice being growth: corals that quickly grow on contemporary reefs might be future winners. To test for temporal stability of growth as a predictor of future performance, genotypes of the coral Porites spp. were grown in common gardens in Mo'orea, French Polynesia. Growth was measured every two to four months throughout 2018, and each period was used as a predictor of growth over the subsequent period. Area-normalized growth explained less than 29% of the variance in subsequent growth, but for biomass-normalized growth this increased to 45-60%, and was highest when summer growth was used to predict autumn growth. The capacity of initial growth to predict future performance is dependent on the units of measurement and the time of year in which it is measured. The final choice of traits to quantify performance must be informed through consideration of the species and the normalization that best capture the information inherent in the biological processes mediating variation in traits values.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter J Edmunds
- Department of Biology, California State University, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge, CA 91330-8303, USA
| | - Hollie M Putnam
- Department of Biological Science, University of Rhode Island, 120 Flagg Road, Kingston, RI 02881, USA
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129
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Taylor EN, Diele‐Viegas LM, Gangloff EJ, Hall JM, Halpern B, Massey MD, Rödder D, Rollinson N, Spears S, Sun B, Telemeco RS. The thermal ecology and physiology of reptiles and amphibians: A user's guide. JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL ZOOLOGY PART 2020; 335:13-44. [DOI: 10.1002/jez.2396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2020] [Revised: 06/12/2020] [Accepted: 06/13/2020] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Emily N. Taylor
- Biological Sciences Department California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo California
| | | | | | - Joshua M. Hall
- Department of Biological Sciences Auburn University Auburn Alabama
| | | | - Melanie D. Massey
- Department of Biology Dalhousie University Halifax Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Dennis Rödder
- Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig Bonn Germany
| | - Njal Rollinson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Toronto St. Toronto Ontario Canada
- School of the Environment University of Toronto Toronto Ontario Canada
| | - Sierra Spears
- Department of Zoology Ohio Wesleyan University Delaware Ohio
| | - Bao‐jun Sun
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
| | - Rory S. Telemeco
- Department of Biology California State University Fresno California
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130
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Fernandes JA, Rutterford L, Simpson SD, Butenschön M, Frölicher TL, Yool A, Cheung WWL, Grant A. Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3891-3905. [PMID: 32378286 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2019] [Revised: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 02/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jose A Fernandes
- AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Pasaia, Spain
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
| | - Louise Rutterford
- Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- School of Biological Sciences, Life Sciences Building, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Stephen D Simpson
- School of Biological Sciences, Life Sciences Building, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Momme Butenschön
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK
- Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Andrew Yool
- National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
| | - William W L Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Alastair Grant
- Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy
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131
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Wilson KL, Tittensor DP, Worm B, Lotze HK. Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3251-3267. [PMID: 32222010 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15094] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2019] [Revised: 02/04/2020] [Accepted: 02/24/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristen L Wilson
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Boris Worm
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Heike K Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
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132
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Future ocean biomass losses may widen socioeconomic equity gaps. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2235. [PMID: 32376884 PMCID: PMC7203146 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15708-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2019] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Future climate impacts and their consequences are increasingly being explored using multi-model ensembles that average across individual model projections. Here we develop a statistical framework that integrates projections from coupled ecosystem and earth-system models to evaluate significance and uncertainty in marine animal biomass changes over the 21st century in relation to socioeconomic indicators at national to global scales. Significant biomass changes are projected in 40%–57% of the global ocean, with 68%–84% of these areas exhibiting declining trends under low and high emission scenarios, respectively. Given unabated emissions, maritime nations with poor socioeconomic statuses such as low nutrition, wealth, and ocean health will experience the greatest projected losses. These findings suggest that climate-driven biomass changes will widen existing equity gaps and disproportionally affect populations that contributed least to global CO2 emissions. However, our analysis also suggests that such deleterious outcomes are largely preventable by achieving negative emissions (RCP 2.6). Numerous marine ecosystem models are used to project animal biomass over time but integrating them can be challenging. Here the authors develop a test for statistical significance in multi-model ensemble trends, and thus relate future biomass trends to current patterns of ecological and socioeconomic status.
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133
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Fabri-Ruiz S, Danis B, Navarro N, Koubbi P, Laffont R, Saucède T. Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2161-2180. [PMID: 31919925 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2019] [Revised: 12/20/2019] [Accepted: 12/27/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well-delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so-called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two-step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Salomé Fabri-Ruiz
- Biogéosciences, UMR CNRS/EPHE 6282, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
- Laboratoire de Biologie Marine, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Bruno Danis
- Laboratoire de Biologie Marine, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Nicolas Navarro
- Biogéosciences, UMR CNRS/EPHE 6282, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
- EPHE, PSL University, Paris, France
| | - Philippe Koubbi
- UFR 918 Terre Environnement et Biodiversité, Sorbonne Université, Paris Cedex 05, France
- IFREMER, Centre Manche mer du Nord. Laboratoire Halieutique de Manche-Mer du Nord, Boulogne-sur-Mer, France
| | - Rémi Laffont
- Biogéosciences, UMR CNRS/EPHE 6282, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
| | - Thomas Saucède
- Biogéosciences, UMR CNRS/EPHE 6282, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France
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Duarte CM, Agusti S, Barbier E, Britten GL, Castilla JC, Gattuso JP, Fulweiler RW, Hughes TP, Knowlton N, Lovelock CE, Lotze HK, Predragovic M, Poloczanska E, Roberts C, Worm B. Rebuilding marine life. Nature 2020; 580:39-51. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2146-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 332] [Impact Index Per Article: 83.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2019] [Accepted: 02/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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135
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Free CM, Mangin T, Molinos JG, Ojea E, Burden M, Costello C, Gaines SD. Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0224347. [PMID: 32134926 PMCID: PMC7058327 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2019] [Accepted: 02/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60–65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23–50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing–and achieving the benefits of–climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M. Free
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Tracey Mangin
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Jorge García Molinos
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Global Station for Arctic Research, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Elena Ojea
- Future Oceans Lab, CIM-UVigo, University of Vigo, Vigo, Spain
| | - Merrick Burden
- Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Christopher Costello
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Steven D. Gaines
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
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136
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Nash KL, Blythe JL, Cvitanovic C, Fulton EA, Halpern BS, Milner-Gulland E, Addison PF, Pecl GT, Watson RA, Blanchard JL. To Achieve a Sustainable Blue Future, Progress Assessments Must Include Interdependencies between the Sustainable Development Goals. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.01.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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137
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Kenny TA, Archambault P, Ayotte P, Batal M, Chan HM, Cheung W, Eddy TD, Little M, Ota Y, Pétrin-Desrosiers C, Plante S, Poitras J, Polanco F, Singh G, Lemire M. Oceans and human health—navigating changes on Canada’s coasts. Facets (Ott) 2020. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2020-0035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Ocean conditions can affect human health in a variety of ways that are often overlooked and unappreciated. Oceans adjacent to Canada are affected by many anthropogenic stressors, with implications for human health and well-being. Climate change further escalates these pressures and can expose coastal populations to unique health hazards and distressing conditions. However, current research efforts, education or training curriculums, and policies in Canada critically lack explicit consideration of these ocean–public health linkages. The objective of this paper is to present multiple disciplinary perspectives from academics and health practitioners to inform the development of future directions for research, capacity development, and policy and practice at the interface of oceans and human health in Canada. We synthesize major ocean and human health linkages in Canada, and identify climate-sensitive drivers of change, drawing attention to unique considerations in Canada. To support effective, sustained, and equitable collaborations at the nexus of oceans and human health, we recommend the need for progress in three critical areas: ( i) holistic worldviews and perspectives, ( ii) capacity development, and ( iii) structural supports. Canada can play a key role in supporting the global community in addressing the health challenges of climate and ocean changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiff-Annie Kenny
- Département de médecine sociale et préventive, Faculté de médecine, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
- Axe santé des populations et pratiques optimales en santé, Centre de recherche du CHU de québec, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1S 4L8, Canada
| | - Philippe Archambault
- Département de biologie, Faculté des sciences et de génie, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
- ArcticNet, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Pierre Ayotte
- Axe santé des populations et pratiques optimales en santé, Centre de recherche du CHU de québec, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1S 4L8, Canada
| | - Malek Batal
- Département de nutrition, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7, Canada
- Centre de recherche en santé publique (CReSP), Montréal, QC H3C 3J7, Canada
| | - Hing Man Chan
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
| | - William Cheung
- Institute of Oceans and Fisheries (IOF), University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1C 5R3, Canada
| | - Matthew Little
- School of Public Health and Social Policy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Yoshitaka Ota
- Nippon Foundation Ocean Nexus Center, EarthLab, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5674, USA
- School of Marine and Environmental Affairs (SMEA), University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-5685, USA
| | - Claudel Pétrin-Desrosiers
- Département de médecine familiale et de médecine d’urgence, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7, Canada
- Association canadienne des médecins pour l’environnement/Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (ACME/CAPE), Toronto, ON M5T 2C2, Canada
| | - Steve Plante
- Département Sociétés territoires et développement, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Julien Poitras
- Département de médecine familiale et de médecine d’urgence, Faculté de médecine, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Fernando Polanco
- School of Medicine, St. George’s University, St. George’s, Grenada, West Indies
| | - Gerald Singh
- Department of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL A1B 3X9, Canada
| | - Mélanie Lemire
- Département de médecine sociale et préventive, Faculté de médecine, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
- Axe santé des populations et pratiques optimales en santé, Centre de recherche du CHU de québec, Université Laval, Québec, QC G1S 4L8, Canada
- Institut de biologie intégrative et des systèmes (IBIS), Université Laval, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
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138
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Byrne M, Foo SA, Ross PM, Putnam HM. Limitations of cross- and multigenerational plasticity for marine invertebrates faced with global climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:80-102. [PMID: 31670444 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2019] [Accepted: 09/12/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Although cross generation (CGP) and multigenerational (MGP) plasticity have been identified as mechanisms of acclimation to global change, the weight of evidence indicates that parental conditioning over generations is not a panacea to rescue stress sensitivity in offspring. For many species, there were no benefits of parental conditioning. Even when improved performance was observed, this waned over time within a generation or across generations and fitness declined. CGP and MGP studies identified resilient species with stress tolerant genotypes in wild populations and selected family lines. Several bivalves possess favourable stress tolerance and phenotypically plastic traits potentially associated with genetic adaptation to life in habitats where they routinely experience temperature and/or acidification stress. These traits will be important to help 'climate proof' shellfish ventures. Species that are naturally stress tolerant and those that naturally experience a broad range of environmental conditions are good candidates to provide insights into the physiological and molecular mechanisms involved in CGP and MGP. It is challenging to conduct ecologically relevant global change experiments over the long times commensurate with the pace of changing climate. As a result, many studies present stressors in a shock-type exposure at rates much faster than projected scenarios. With more gradual stressor introduction over longer experimental durations and in context with conditions species are currently acclimatized and/or adapted to, the outcomes for sensitive species might differ. We highlight the importance to understand primordial germ cell development and the timing of gametogenesis with respect to stressor exposure. Although multigenerational exposure to global change stressors currently appears limited as a universal tool to rescue species in the face of changing climate, natural proxies of future conditions (upwelling zones, CO2 vents, naturally warm habitats) show that phenotypic adjustment and/or beneficial genetic selection is possible for some species, indicating complex plasticity-adaptation interactions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Byrne
- School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Shawna A Foo
- Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Pauline M Ross
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Hollie M Putnam
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, USA
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139
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Bryndum-Buchholz A, Prentice F, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, Cheung WW, Christensen V, Galbraith ED, Maury O, Lotze HK. Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans. Facets (Ott) 2020. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2019-0035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Faelan Prentice
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Center for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - William W.L. Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Olivier Maury
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), MARBEC (IRD, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS), 34203 Sète, France
- Department of Oceanography, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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140
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Séférian R, Berthet S, Yool A, Palmiéri J, Bopp L, Tagliabue A, Kwiatkowski L, Aumont O, Christian J, Dunne J, Gehlen M, Ilyina T, John JG, Li H, Long MC, Luo JY, Nakano H, Romanou A, Schwinger J, Stock C, Santana-Falcón Y, Takano Y, Tjiputra J, Tsujino H, Watanabe M, Wu T, Wu F, Yamamoto A. Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6. CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS 2020; 6:95-119. [PMID: 32837849 PMCID: PMC7431553 DOI: 10.1007/s40641-020-00160-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). RECENT FINDINGS The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. SUMMARY Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
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Affiliation(s)
- Roland Séférian
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Sarah Berthet
- CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | - Andrew Yool
- National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK
| | - Julien Palmiéri
- National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH UK
| | - Laurent Bopp
- LMD-IPSL, Ecole Normale Supérieure / Université PSL, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Sorbonne Université, Paris, PSL University, Paris, France
| | | | | | - Olivier Aumont
- LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
| | - James Christian
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC Canada
| | - John Dunne
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Marion Gehlen
- LSCE-IPSL, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | | | - Jasmin G. John
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | - Hongmei Li
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
| | | | - Jessica Y. Luo
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | | | - Jörg Schwinger
- NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | - Charles Stock
- NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ USA
| | | | - Yohei Takano
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- Present Address: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM USA
| | - Jerry Tjiputra
- NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Michio Watanabe
- Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
| | - Tongwen Wu
- Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Fanghua Wu
- Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Akitomo Yamamoto
- Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
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141
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Fulton EA, Blanchard JL, Melbourne-Thomas J, Plagányi ÉE, Tulloch VJD. Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective. Front Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
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142
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Thiault L, Mora C, Cinner JE, Cheung WWL, Graham NAJ, Januchowski-Hartley FA, Mouillot D, Sumaila UR, Claudet J. Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaaw9976. [PMID: 31807697 PMCID: PMC6881155 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2019] [Accepted: 10/28/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, ~90% of the world's population-most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries-are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers-would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauric Thiault
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL, Moorea, French Polynesia
- Corresponding author.
| | - Camilo Mora
- Department of Geography, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai’i 96822, USA
| | - Joshua E. Cinner
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Queensland, Australia
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada
| | | | - Fraser A. Januchowski-Hartley
- UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER, Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex, France
- UMR ENTROPIE, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - David Mouillot
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Queensland, Australia
- UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER, Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex, France
| | - U. Rashid Sumaila
- Fisheries Economics Research Unit, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada
| | - Joachim Claudet
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL, Moorea, French Polynesia
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143
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Tittensor DP, Beger M, Boerder K, Boyce DG, Cavanagh RD, Cosandey-Godin A, Crespo GO, Dunn DC, Ghiffary W, Grant SM, Hannah L, Halpin PN, Harfoot M, Heaslip SG, Jeffery NW, Kingston N, Lotze HK, McGowan J, McLeod E, McOwen CJ, O’Leary BC, Schiller L, Stanley RRE, Westhead M, Wilson KL, Worm B. Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaay9969. [PMID: 31807711 PMCID: PMC6881166 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aay9969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2019] [Accepted: 11/01/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
- Corresponding author.
| | - Maria Beger
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Kristina Boerder
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Daniel G. Boyce
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | | | | | - Guillermo Ortuño Crespo
- Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Daniel C. Dunn
- Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | | | | | - Lee Hannah
- The Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA
| | - Patrick N. Halpin
- Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Mike Harfoot
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Susan G. Heaslip
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
| | - Nicholas W. Jeffery
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
| | - Naomi Kingston
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | | | | | - Chris J. McOwen
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Bethan C. O’Leary
- School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, UK
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, UK
| | - Laurenne Schiller
- Marine Affairs Program, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
- Ocean Wise, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Ryan R. E. Stanley
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
| | - Maxine Westhead
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
| | | | - Boris Worm
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
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