Common European birds are declining rapidly while less abundant species' numbers are rising

Landscape homogenization due to agricultural intensification disrupts the relationship between reproductive success and main prey abundance in an avian predator

BACKGROUND

Selecting high-quality habitat and the optimal time to reproduce can increase individual fitness and is a strong evolutionary factor shaping animal populations. However, few studies have investigated the interplay between land cover heterogeneity, limitation in food resources, individual quality and spatial variation in fitness parameters. Here, we explore how individuals of different quality respond to possible mismatches between a cue for prey availability (land cover heterogeneity) and the actual fluctuating prey abundance.

RESULTS

We analyse timing of breeding and reproductive success in a migratory population of Eurasian kestrels (Falco tinnunculus) breeding in nest-boxes, over a full three-year abundance cycle of main prey (voles), and consider several components of individual quality, including body condition, blood parasite infection, and genetic diversity (n = 448 adults) that act on different time scales. Older individuals, and kestrel parents in higher body condition started egg-laying earlier than younger birds and those in lower body condition. Additionally, egg-laying was initiated earlier during the increase and decrease phases (2011 and 2012) than during the low phase of the vole cycle (2013). Nestling survival (ratio of eggs that fledged successfully) was higher in early nests and in heterogeneous landscapes (i.e., mosaic of different habitat types), which was evident during the increase and decrease phases of the vole cycle, but not during the low vole year.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a strong positive effect of landscape heterogeneity on nestling survival, but only when voles were relatively abundant, whereas a difference in the timing of breeding related to territory landscape heterogeneity was not evident. Therefore, landscape heterogeneity appeared as the main driver of high reproductive performance under favourable food conditions. Our results show that landscape homogenization linked to agricultural intensification disrupts the expected positive effect of vole abundance on reproductive success of kestrels.

Building on Margalef: Testing the links between landscape structure, energy and information flows driven by farming and biodiversity

The aim of this paper is to test two methodologies, applicable to different spatial scales (from regional to local), to predict the capacity of agroecosystems to provide habitats for the species richness of butterflies and birds, based on the ways their socio-metabolic flows change the ecological functionality of bio-cultural landscapes. First, we use the more general Intermediate Disturbance-Complexity (IDC) model to assess how different levels of human appropriation of photosynthetic production affect the landscape functional structure that hosts biodiversity. Second, we apply a more detailed Energy-Landscape Integrated Analysis (ELIA) model that focusses on the energy storage carried out by the internal biomass loops, and the energy information held in the network of energy flows driven by farmers, in order to correlate both (the energy reinvested and redistributed) with the energy imprinted in the landscape patterns and processes that sustain biodiversity. The results obtained after applying both models in the province and the metropolitan region of Barcelona support the Margalef's energy-information-structure hypothesis by showing positive relations between butterflies' species richness, IDC and ELIA, and between birds' species richness and energy information. Our findings support the view that strong relationships between farming energy flows, agroecosystem functioning and biodiversity can be detected, and highlight the importance of farmers' knowledge and labour to maintain bio-cultural landscapes.

The power to detect regional declines in common bird populations using continental monitoring data

Anthropogenic environmental change is driving the rapid loss of biodiversity. Large declines in the abundance of historically common species are now emerging as a major concern. Identifying declining populations through long-term biodiversity monitoring is vital for implementing timely conservation measures. It is, therefore, critical to evaluate the likelihood that persistent long-term population trends of a given size could be detected using existing monitoring data and methods. Here, we test the power to detect declines in Australia's common landbirds using long-term citizen science monitoring. We use spatially explicit simulations of occupancy dynamics and virtual sampling, designed to mimic bird monitoring in better-sampled regions of Australia, to assess likely power in these data to detect trends relevant for conservation. We predict the statistical power for 326 common species that meet minimum requirements for monitoring data across 10 regions of Australia, estimating the number of species for which we would have a high (≥80%) chance of detecting declines of different sizes. The power to detect declines of ≥30% per decade was predicted to be high for at least one-third of the common species in 7 of 10 regions, with a total of 103 (32% of 326) unique species sufficiently monitored in at least one region. These species spanned 12 taxonomic orders, four orders of magnitude in body mass, and a broad diversity of dietary guilds, suggesting the current species pool will likely serve as robust indicators for a broad range of environmental states and pressures. Power was strongly affected by species' detectability, and power to detect even large declines was negligible when species are detected on ≤50% of visits to an occupied site. Predicted power for many species fell just short of the 80% threshold in one or more regions, which suggests an increase in effort targeting these species could greatly enhance the species and regional representation of these data. Against the backdrop of unprecedented biodiversity losses, this study shows how critical evaluation of existing monitoring schemes is valuable both for assessing the contribution of citizen science schemes to biodiversity monitoring and for designing strategic monitoring to significantly improve the knowledge these schemes provide.

Unexpected spatial population ecology of a widespread terrestrial salamander near its southern range edge

Under the current amphibian biodiversity crisis, common species provide an opportunity to measure population dynamics across a wide range of environmental conditions while examining the processes that determine abundance and structure geographical ranges. Studying species at their range limits also provides a window for understanding the dynamics expected in future environments under increasing climate change and human modification. We quantified patterns of seasonal activity, density and space use in the eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) near its southern range edge and compare the spatial ecology of this population to previous findings from the core of their range. This southern population shows the expected phenology of surface activity based on temperature limitations in warmer climates, yet maintains unexpectedly high densities and large home ranges during the active season. Our study suggests that ecological factors known to strongly affect amphibian populations (e.g. warm temperature and forest fragmentation) do not necessarily constrain this southern population. Our study highlights the utility of studying a common amphibian as a model system for investigating population processes in environments under strong selective pressure.

A large-scale survey of house sparrows feathers reveals ubiquitous presence of neonicotinoids in farmlands

The massive use of neonicotinoid insecticides has been repeatedly incriminated for their impacts to avian populations. Some studies have reported contamination of granivorous birds by neonicotinoids but very little is known about exposure to neonicotinoids in other bird species. To fill this lack of knowledge, we trapped house sparrows Passer domesticus, an omnivorous bird whose diet is composed of both grains and insects, and we collected 617 feathers from individuals living on 47 conventional, integrated-production (IP-Suisse) and organic farms distributed all over the Swiss plateau, the country's main agricultural area. We then assessed the concentration of five neonicotinoids in 146 pools of feathers. We found that all feather samples were contaminated by at least one neonicotinoid at measurable concentration (>LOQ), with thiacloprid accounting for most of the prevalence (99%), while clothianidin was found at highest concentrations (with averages ranging from 1.68 to 9.2 ppb). Additionally, house sparrows living on conventional farms showed higher concentrations of neonicotinoids (15.26 ± 3.58 ppb) than individuals living on IP-Suisse (3.38 ± 0.86 ppb), and organic farms (2.59 ± 0.56 ppb). Our large-scale survey highlights how ubiquitous neonicotinoid insecticides have become in agricultural habitats, and reveals generalized exposure of house sparrows, and potentially other species inhabiting farmlands, to neonicotinoids.

Conserving the abundance of nonthreatened species

Human modification of the environment is driving declines in population size and distributional extent of much of the world's biota. These declines extend to many of the most abundant and widespread species, for which proportionally small declines can result in the loss of vast numbers of individuals, biomass, and interactions. These losses could have major localized effects on ecological and cultural processes and services without elevating a species' global extinction risk. Although most conservation effort is directed at species threatened with extinction in the very near term, the value of retaining abundance regardless of global extinction risk is justifiable based on many biodiversity or ecosystem service metrics, including cultural services, at scales from local to global. The challenges of identifying conservation priorities for widespread and abundant species include quantifying the effects of species' abundance on services and understanding how these effects are realized as populations decline. Negative effects of population declines may be disconnected from the threat processes driving declines because of species movements and environment flows (e.g., hydrology). Conservation prioritization for these species shares greater similarity with invasive species risk assessments than extinction risk assessments because of the importance of local context and per capita effects of abundance on other species. Because conservation priorities usually focus on preventing the extinction of threatened species, the rationale and objectives for incorporating declines of nonthreatened species must be clearly articulated, going beyond extinction risk to encompass the range of likely harmful effects (e.g., secondary extinctions, loss of ecosystem services) if declines persist or are not reversed. Research should focus on characterizing the effects of local declines in species that are not threatened globally across a range of ecosystem services and quantifying the spatial distribution of these effects through the distribution of abundance. The case for conserving abundance in nonthreatened species can be made most powerfully when the costs of losing this abundance are better understood.

Hierarchical distance sampling to estimate population sizes of common lizards across a desert ecoregion

Multispecies wildlife monitoring across large geographical regions is important for effective conservation planning in response to expected impacts from climate change and land use. Unlike many species of birds, mammals, and amphibians which can be efficiently sampled using automated sensors including cameras and sound recorders, reptiles are often much more challenging to detect, in part because of their typically cryptic behavior and generally small body sizes. Although many lizard species are more active during the day which makes them easier to detect using visual encounter surveys, they may be unavailable for sampling during certain periods of the day or year due to their sensitivity to temperature. In recognition of these sampling challenges, we demonstrate application of a recent innovation in distance sampling that adjusts for temporary emigration between repeat survey visits. We used transect surveys to survey lizards at 229 sites throughout the Mojave Desert in California, USA, 2016. We estimated a total population size of 82 million (90% CI: 65-99 million) for the three most common species of lizards across this 66,830 km2 ecoregion. We mapped how density at the 1-km2 scale was predicted to vary with vegetation cover and human development. We validated these results against independent surveys from the southern portion of our study area. Our methods and results demonstrate how multispecies monitoring programs spanning arid ecoregions can better incorporate information about reptiles.

Human-nature interactions and the consequences and drivers of provisioning wildlife

Many human populations are undergoing an extinction of experience, with a progressive decline in interactions with nature. This is a consequence both of a loss of opportunity for, and orientation towards, such experiences. The trend is of concern in part because interactions with nature can be good for human health and wellbeing. One potential means of redressing these losses is through the intentional provision of resources to increase wildlife populations in close proximity to people, thereby increasing the potential for positive human-nature experiences, and thence the array of benefits that can result. In this paper, we review the evidence that these resource subsidies have such a cascade of effects. In some Westernized countries, the scale of provision is extraordinarily high, and doubtless leads to both positive and negative impacts for wildlife. In turn, these impacts often lead to more frequent, reliable and closer human-nature interactions, with a greater variety of species. The consequences for human wellbeing remain poorly understood, although benefits documented in the context of human-nature interactions more broadly seem likely to apply. There are also some important feedback loops that need to be better characterized if resource provisioning is to contribute effectively towards averting the extinction of experience.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long-term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Species occurrence is influenced by a range of factors including habitat attributes, climate, weather, and human landscape modification. These drivers are likely to interact, but their effects are frequently quantified independently. Here, we report the results of a 13-year study of temperate woodland birds in south-eastern Australia to quantify how different-sized birds respond to the interacting effects of: (a) short-term weather (rainfall and temperature in the 12 months preceding our surveys), (b) long-term climate (average rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures over the period 1970-2014), and (c) broad structural forms of vegetation (old-growth woodland, regrowth woodland, and restoration plantings). We uncovered significant interactions between bird body size, vegetation type, climate, and weather. High short-term rainfall was associated with decreased occurrence of large birds in old-growth and regrowth woodland, but not in restoration plantings. Conversely, small bird occurrence peaked in wet years, but this effect was most pronounced in locations with a history of high rainfall, and was actually reversed (peak occurrence in dry years) in restoration plantings in dry climates. The occurrence of small birds was depressed-and large birds elevated-in hot years, except in restoration plantings which supported few large birds under these circumstances. Our investigation suggests that different mechanisms may underpin contrasting responses of small and large birds to the interacting effects of climate, weather, and vegetation type. A diversity of vegetation cover is needed across a landscape to promote the occurrence of different-sized bird species in agriculture-dominated landscapes, particularly under variable weather conditions. Climate change is predicted to lead to widespread drying of our study region, and restoration plantings-especially currently climatically wet areas-may become critically important for conserving bird species, particularly small-bodied taxa.

Aridity and land use negatively influence a dominant species' upper critical thermal limits

Understanding the physiological tolerances of ectotherms, such as thermal limits, is important in predicting biotic responses to climate change. However, it is even more important to examine these impacts alongside those from other landscape changes: such as the reduction of native vegetation cover, landscape fragmentation and changes in land use intensity (LUI). Here, we integrate the observed thermal limits of the dominant and ubiquitous meat ant Iridomyrmex purpureus across climate (aridity), land cover and land use gradients spanning 270 km in length and 840 m in altitude across northern New South Wales, Australia. Meat ants were chosen for study as they are ecosystem engineers and changes in their populations may result in a cascade of changes in the populations of other species. When we assessed critical thermal maximum temperatures (CTmax) of meat ants in relation to the environmental gradients we found little influence of climate (aridity) but that CTmax decreased as LUI increased. We found no overall correlation between CTmax and CTmin. We did however find that tolerance to warming was lower for ants sampled from more arid locations. Our findings suggest that as LUI and aridification increase, the physiological resilience of I. purpureus will decline. A reduction in physiological resilience may lead to a reduction in the ecosystem service provision that these populations provide throughout their distribution.

Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird

Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with "Short" and "Tall" ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat-specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real-time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real-time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High-quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low-quality to high-quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.

Evaluation of habitat protection under the European Natura 2000 conservation network - The example for Germany

The world´s largest network of protected areas—Natura 2000 (N2000)—has been implemented to protect Europe´s biodiversity. N2000 is built upon two cornerstones, the Birds Directive, which lists 691 bird species (plus one additional bird genus with no further classification) and the Habitats Directive, which lists next to a variety of species, 233 habitat types to be protected. There is evidence of the positive impact of the Directives on the EU´s biodiversity, although the overall improvement reported for species in favourable condition in the last assessment was low. However, most of the assessments are species focused, while habitats have received very little attention. Here we developed a generic workflow, which we exemplified for Germany, to assess the status of habitat coverage within the N2000 network combining information from publicly available data sources. Applying the workflow allows identification of gaps in habitat protection, followed by the prioritization of potential areas of high protection value using the conservation planning software Marxan. We found that, in Germany, N2000 covers all target habitats. However, common habitats were proportionally underrepresented relative to rare ones, which contrasts with studies focussing on the representation of species. Moreover, the German case study suggests that especially highly protected areas (i.e. covered by more than 90% with N2000 sites) build an excellent basis towards a cost-effective and efficient conservation network. Our workflow provides a generic approach to deal with the common problem of missing habitat distribution data outside of N2000 sites, information which is however crucial for managers to plan conservation actions appropriately across Europe. To avoid a biased representation of habitat types within N2000, our results underpin the importance of defining qualitative and quantitative conservation targets which will allow assesment of the trajectory of habitat protection in Europe as well as adjustment of the network accordingly—a future necessity in the light of climate change.

The broiler chicken as a signal of a human reconfigured biosphere

Changing patterns of human resource use and food consumption have profoundly impacted the Earth's biosphere. Until now, no individual taxa have been suggested as distinct and characteristic new morphospecies representing this change. Here we show that the domestic broiler chicken is one such potential marker. Human-directed changes in breeding, diet and farming practices demonstrate at least a doubling in body size from the late medieval period to the present in domesticated chickens, and an up to fivefold increase in body mass since the mid-twentieth century. Moreover, the skeletal morphology, pathology, bone geochemistry and genetics of modern broilers are demonstrably different to those of their ancestors. Physical and numerical changes to chickens in the second half of the twentieth century, i.e. during the putative Anthropocene Epoch, have been the most dramatic, with large increases in individual bird growth rate and population sizes. Broiler chickens, now unable to survive without human intervention, have a combined mass exceeding that of all other birds on Earth; this novel morphotype symbolizes the unprecedented human reconfiguration of the Earth's biosphere.

The distribution and role of functional abundance in cross-scale resilience

The cross-scale resilience model suggests that system-level ecological resilience emerges from the distribution of species' functions within and across the spatial and temporal scales of a system. It has provided a quantitative method for calculating the resilience of a given system and so has been a valuable contribution to a largely qualitative field. As it is currently laid out, the model accounts for the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental resources and species are present and the functional roles species play but does not inform us about how much resource is present or how much function is provided. In short, it does not account for abundance in the distribution of species and their functional roles within and across the scales of a system. We detail the ways in which we would expect species' abundance to be relevant to the cross-scale resilience model based on the extensive abundance literature in ecology. We also put forward a series of testable hypotheses that would improve our ability to anticipate and quantify how resilience is generated, and how ecosystems will (or will not) buffer recent rapid global changes. This stream of research may provide an improved foundation for the quantitative evaluation of ecological resilience.

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation measures for European grassland-breeding waders

Farmland birds are among the most threatened bird species in Europe, largely as a result of agricultural intensification which has driven widespread biodiversity losses. Breeding waders associated with grassland and arable habitats are particularly vulnerable and a frequent focus of agri-environment schemes (AES) designed to halt and reverse population declines. We review existing literature, providing a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of policy and management interventions used throughout Europe to improve population and demographic metrics of grassland-breeding waders. Targeted AES and site protection measures were more likely to be effective than less targeted AES and were ten times more likely to be effective than would be expected by chance, particularly for population trend and productivity metrics. Positive effects of AES and site protection did not appear synergistic. Management interventions which had the greatest chance of increasing population growth or productivity included modification of mowing regimes, increasing wet conditions, and the use of nest protection. Success rates varied according to the species and metric being evaluated. None of the policy or management interventions we evaluated were associated with a significant risk of negative impacts on breeding waders. Our findings support the use of agri-environment schemes, site protection, and management measures for grassland-breeding wader conservation in Europe. Due to publication bias, our findings are most applicable to intensively managed agricultural landscapes. More studies are needed to identify measures that increase chick survival. Despite broadly effective conservation measures already in use, grassland-breeding waders in Europe continue to decline. More research is needed to improve the likelihood and magnitude of positive outcomes, coupled with wider implementation of effective measures to substantially increase favorable land management for these species.

Landscape-level bird loss increases the prevalence of honeydew-producing insects and non-native ants

Bird exclusion experiments consistently show that birds exhibit strong top-down control of arthropods, including ants and the honeydew-producing insects (HPIs) that they tend. However, it remains unclear whether the results of these small-scale bird exclosure experiments can be extrapolated to larger spatial scales. In this study, we use a natural bird removal experiment to compare the prevalence of ants and HPIs between Guam, an island whose bird community has been extirpated since the 1980s due to the introduction of the brown tree snake, and two nearby islands (Rota and Saipan) that have more intact bird assemblages. Consistent with smaller-scale bird exclosure experiments, we show that (1) forest trees from Guam are significantly more likely to host HPIs than trees from Saipan and (2) ants are nearly four times as abundant on Guam than on both Saipan and Rota. The prevalence of HPIs varied slightly based on tree species identity, although these effects were not as strong as island-level effects associated with bird loss. Ant community composition differed between Guam and the other two islands. These results corroborate past observational studies showing increased spider densities on Guam and suggest that trophic changes associated with landscape-level bird extirpation may also involve alterations in the abundance of ants and HPIs. This study also provides a clear example of the strong indirect effects that invasive species can have on natural food webs.

Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally

Animal populations have undergone substantial declines in recent decades. These declines have occurred alongside rapid, human-driven environmental change, including climate warming. An association between population declines and environmental change is well established, yet there has been relatively little analysis of the importance of the rates of climate warming and its interaction with conversion to anthropogenic land use in causing population declines. Here we present a global assessment of the impact of rapid climate warming and anthropogenic land use conversion on 987 populations of 481 species of terrestrial birds and mammals since 1950. We collated spatially referenced population trends of at least 5 years' duration from the Living Planet database and used mixed effects models to assess the association of these trends with observed rates of climate warming, rates of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, and protected area coverage. We found that declines in population abundance for both birds and mammals are greater in areas where mean temperature has increased more rapidly, and that this effect is more pronounced for birds. However, we do not find a strong effect of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, or protected area coverage. Our results identify a link between rapid warming and population declines, thus supporting the notion that rapid climate warming is a global threat to biodiversity.

Moving window growth-A method to characterize the dynamic growth of crops in the context of bird abundance dynamics with the example of Skylark (Alauda arvensis)

Agricultural field crops differ in their vegetation height, coverage, and temporal development, affecting the abundances of bird species, which are often used as bioindicators. Although this relationship has been observed, no significant methodology exists to describe the dynamics of field crop growth on a landscape scale in connection with the abundance of indicator bird species that allows meaningful interpretation of bird abundance data with respect to crop vegetation parameters during the breeding season. In a field observation program, we monitored 2,900 ha of agricultural landscape to represent both the crop growth processes and the bird abundances. We measured these two parameters in the study area, dominated by winter wheat, winter rapeseed, maize, and fallow fields, and adapted the moving window approach to a new method of "moving window growth" to describe the dynamic development of height and coverage of the crops over time. Simultaneously, Skylarks (Alauda arvensis) territorial behavior was measured concurrently on the same fields and crops. Their dynamic abundance was documented over the breeding season. To test the relationship between crop growth and development and bird abundance, we applied a generalized linear model (GLM) in two ways: (a) without differentiation of crop species and (b) with differentiation of crop species. We found significant relationships between bird abundance and vegetation height and coverage with respect to both individual parameters and their interactions, even without differentiation of the agricultural crops. In general, increasing vegetation height and coverage, especially the interaction, led to decreasing bird abundance values. The model quality increased significantly by including differentiation of specific crops as an explanatory variable indicating a non-homogenous situation between crops. Separate models for individual crop species revealed larger differences in model quality with best and least goodness of fit values for fallow fields and winter rapeseed, respectively. Because of the clear interactions between bird abundance, type of field crop, and vegetation height and coverage, it follows that both habitat suitability assessments of arable fields and the definition of favorable vegetation structures for farmland birds should be crop species-specific.

Conserving rare species can have high opportunity costs for common species

Conservation practitioners face difficult choices in apportioning limited resources between rare species (to ensure their existence) and common species (to ensure their abundance and ecosystem contributions). We quantified the opportunity costs of conserving rare species of migratory fishes in the context of removing dams and retrofitting road culverts across 1,883 tributaries of the North American Great Lakes. Our optimization models show that maximizing total habitat gains across species can be very efficient in terms of benefits achieved per dollar spent, but disproportionately benefits common species. Conservation approaches that target rare species, or that ensure some benefits for every species (i.e., complementarity) enable strategic allocation of resources among species but reduce aggregate habitat gains. Thus, small habitat gains for the rarest species necessarily come at the expense of more than 20 times as much habitat for common ones. These opportunity costs are likely to occur in many ecosystems because range limits and conservation costs often vary widely among species. Given that common species worldwide are declining more rapidly than rare ones within major taxa, our findings provide incentive for triage among multiple worthy conservation targets.

A critical evaluation of the exotic bird collection of the Šariš Museum in Bardejov, Slovakia

A collection of exotic birds deposited in the Šariš Museum in Bardejov (SMB), Slovakia, has not been evaluated critically since their deposition. We assessed the accuracy of identification of 465 bird specimens deposited in SMB with native distributions outside of Slovakia. Specimens belonged to 322 species of 82 families and 26 orders. Of the specimen represented, 34 belonged to species considered as ‘near-threatened’ (7.3%), 16 as ‘vulnerable’ (3.4%) and one as ‘endangered’ (0.2%). The SMB collection holds 10 of 28 extant Cuban endemic species and another 11 species endemic to the Caribbean archipelago. Even among birds that are relatively easy to identify, many specimens were identified incorrectly or species identification was missing. Of 465 specimens evaluated, 95 (20.4%) were identified incorrectly or were missing species identification, and another 79 (17%) were identified correctly, but their names have changed over time due to taxonomic shift, thus they required correction.

Population Abundance and Ecosystem Service Provision: The Case of Birds

Although there is a diversity of concerns about recent persistent declines in the abundances of many species, the implications for the associated delivery of ecosystem services to people are surprisingly poorly understood. In principle, there are a broad range of potential functional relationships between the abundance of a species or group of species and the magnitude of ecosystem-service provision. Here, we identify the forms these relationships are most likely to take. Focusing on the case of birds, we review the empirical evidence for these functional relationships, with examples of supporting, regulating, and cultural services. Positive relationships between abundance and ecosystem-service provision are the norm (although seldom linear), we found no evidence for hump-shaped relationships, and negative ones were limited to cultural services that value rarity. Given the magnitude of abundance declines among many previously common species, it is likely that there have been substantial losses of ecosystem services, providing important implications for the identification of potential tipping points in relation to defaunation resilience, biodiversity conservation, and human well-being.

Developing biodiversity indicators for African birds

Biodiversity indicators are essential for monitoring the impacts of pressures on the state of nature, determining the effectiveness of policy responses, and tracking progress towards biodiversity targets and sustainable development goals. Indicators based on trends in the abundance of birds are widely used for these purposes in Europe and have been identified as priorities for development elsewhere. To facilitate this we established bird population monitoring schemes in three African countries, based on citizen science approaches used in Europe, aiming to monitor population trends in common and widespread species. We recorded > 500 bird species from c. 450 2-km transects in Botswana, > 750 species from c. 120 transects in Uganda, and > 630 species from c. 90 transects in Kenya. Provisional Wild Bird Indices indicate a strong increase in bird populations in Botswana and a small decrease in Uganda. We also provide comparisons between trends of habitat generalists and specialists, of birds within and outside protected areas, and between Afro-Palearctic migrants and resident birds. Challenges encountered included recruiting, training and retaining volunteer surveyors, and securing long-term funding. However, we show that with technical support and modest investment (c. USD 30,000 per scheme per year), meaningful biodiversity indicators can be generated and used in African countries. Sustained resourcing for the existing schemes, and replication elsewhere, would be a cost-effective way to improve our understanding of biodiversity trends globally, and measure progress towards environmental goals.

Rarity and persistence

Rarity is a population characteristic that is usually associated with a high risk of extinction. We argue here, however, that chronically rare species (those with low population densities over many generations across their entire ranges) may have individual-level traits that make populations more resistant to extinction. The major obstacle to persistence at low density is successful fertilisation (union between egg and sperm), and chronically rare species are more likely to survive when (1) fertilisation occurs inside or close to an adult, (2) mate choice involves long-distance signals, (3) adults or their surrogate gamete dispersers are highly mobile, or (4) the two sexes are combined in a single individual. In contrast, external fertilisation and wind- or water-driven passive dispersal of gametes, or sluggish or sedentary adult life habits in the absence of gamete vectors, appear to be incompatible with sustained rarity. We suggest that the documented increase in frequency of these traits among marine genera over geological time could explain observed secular decreases in rates of background extinction. Unanswered questions remain about how common chronic rarity actually is, which traits are consistently associated with chronic rarity, and how chronically rare species are distributed among taxa, and among the world's ecosystems and regions.

Inferring microevolution from museum collections and resampling: lessons learned from Cepaea

Natural history collections are an important and largely untapped source of long-term data on evolutionary changes in wild populations. Here, we utilize three large geo-referenced sets of samples of the common European land-snail Cepaea nemoralis stored in the collection of Naturalis Biodiversity Center in Leiden, the Netherlands. Resampling of these populations allowed us to gain insight into changes occurring over 95, 69, and 50 years. Cepaea nemoralis is polymorphic for the colour and banding of the shell; the mode of inheritance of these patterns is known, and the polymorphism is under both thermal and predatory selection. At two sites the general direction of changes was towards lighter shells (yellow and less heavily banded), which is consistent with predictions based on on-going climatic change. At one site no directional changes were detected. At all sites there were significant shifts in morph frequencies between years, and our study contributes to the recognition that short-term changes in the states of populations often exceed long-term trends. Our interpretation was limited by the few time points available in the studied collections. We therefore stress the need for natural history collections to routinely collect large samples of common species, to allow much more reliable hind-casting of evolutionary responses to environmental change.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species’ distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel’s quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species’ distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Birds on the move in the face of climate change: High species turnover in northern Europe

Species richness is predicted to increase in the northern latitudes in the warming climate due to ranges of many southern species expanding northwards. We studied changes in the composition of the whole avifauna and in bird species richness in a period of already warming climate in Finland (in northern Europe) covering 1,100 km in south-north gradient across the boreal zone (over 300,000 km²). We compared bird species richness and species-specific changes (for all 235 bird species that occur in Finland) in range size (number of squares occupied) and range shifts (measured as median of area of occupancy) based on bird atlas studies between 1974-1989 and 2006-2010. In addition, we tested how the habitat preference and migration strategy of species explain species-specific variation in the change of the range size. The study was carried out in 10 km squares with similar research intensity in both time periods. The species richness did not change significantly between the two time periods. The composition of the bird fauna, however, changed considerably with 37.0% of species showing an increase and 34.9% a decrease in the numbers of occupied squares, that is, about equal number of species gained and lost their range. Altogether 95.7% of all species (225/235) showed changes either in the numbers of occupied squares or they experienced a range shift (or both). The range size of archipelago birds increased and long-distance migrants declined significantly. Range loss observed in long-distance migrants is in line with the observed population declines of long-distance migrants in the whole Europe. The results show that there is an ongoing considerable species turnover due to climate change and due to land use and other direct human influence. High bird species turnover observed in northern Europe may also affect the functional diversity of species communities.

Identification and ranking of environmental threats with ecosystem vulnerability distributions

Responses of ecosystems to human-induced stress vary in space and time, because both stressors and ecosystem vulnerabilities vary in space and time. Presently, ecosystem impact assessments mainly take into account variation in stressors, without considering variation in ecosystem vulnerability. We developed a method to address ecosystem vulnerability variation by quantifying ecosystem vulnerability distributions (EVDs) based on monitoring data of local species compositions and environmental conditions. The method incorporates spatial variation of both abiotic and biotic variables to quantify variation in responses among species and ecosystems. We show that EVDs can be derived based on a selection of locations, existing monitoring data and a selected impact boundary, and can be used in stressor identification and ranking for a region. A case study on Ohio’s freshwater ecosystems, with freshwater fish as target species group, showed that physical habitat impairment and nutrient loads ranked highest as current stressors, with species losses higher than 5% for at least 6% of the locations. EVDs complement existing approaches of stressor assessment and management, which typically account only for variability in stressors, by accounting for variation in the vulnerability of the responding ecosystems.

Conflict over non-partitioned resources may explain between-species differences in declines: the anthropogenic competition hypothesis

Abstract

Human alterations of habitats are causing declines in many species worldwide. The extent of declines varies greatly among closely related species, for often unknown reasons that must be understood in order to maintain biodiversity. An overlooked factor is that seasonally breeding species compete for nest sites, which are increasingly limited in many anthropogenically degraded environments. I used evolutionary game theory to predict the outcome of competition between individuals that differ in their competitive ability and timing of nesting. A range of species following evolutionarily stable strategies can co-exist when there are sufficient nest sites, but my model predicts that a reduction in nest site availability has greater impacts on late-nesting species, especially the stronger competitors, whereas early-nesting, stronger species decline only slightly. These predictions are supported by data on 221 bird and 43 bumblebee species worldwide. Restoration and provision of nest sites should be an urgent priority in conservation efforts. More broadly, these results indicate a new ecological principle of potentially widespread importance: rapid reductions in the abundance of resources for which species’ preferences have not diversified will result in unprecedented conflicts that reduce the potential for species co-existence.

Significance statement

Understanding the causes of species declines is crucial to preventing the losses. Whilst much work on species vulnerability shows broad scale effects, an enduring mystery is the variation in population trends between closely related species. I combined evolutionary modelling with three global-scale long-term data sets to reveal that competition for scarce nest sites causes variation in declines. The impact of the loss of nest sites on differential declines among closely related species from very different taxa indicates a new ecological principle of widespread importance: the effect of habitat degradation on competition among species. A lack of differentiation of nest site preferences means that—now nest sites are more limited—some species may be driving others to extinction. This phenomenon is likely to occur for any other non-partitioned resources that rapidly, on an evolutionary timescale, are now limiting population sizes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00265-017-2327-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing common birds' ecological requirements to address nature conservation in permanent crops: Lessons from Italian vineyards

Viticulture has contributed to shaping cultural landscapes in several regions across all continents. Recent farming intensification is causing landscape homogenization and biodiversity loss in several of those areas, but knowledge about the impacts on biodiversity in vineyards is still scarce. Simplified agro-ecosystems resulting from intensification host mainly generalist and common species, which still play a key role in the regulation of ecosystems and in the provision of ecosystem services. We assessed the abundance of 11 common bird species at 47 linear transects in a vineyard-dominated landscape in Trentino (NE Italy), in both spring and winter, and analysed abundance variation in relation to three independent groups of predictors: landscape, management, and topographic-climatic variables. In the majority of species (7), abundance was primarily or considerably affected by landscape attributes. However, an additional 5 species were largely affected by management practices, often with conspicuous seasonal differences. Overall, landscape and management heterogeneity positively affected the abundance of 6 species. Vineyard cover (and in particular the new spalliera trellising system) was negatively related with the abundance of 6 species, with the strongest impacts occurring in winter. On the contrary, the cover of marginal habitats had major positive effects over 8 species. Hedgerows, tree rows, and dry stone walls, as well as traditional pergola vineyards and landscape and management heterogeneity should be conserved or restored in viticultural landscapes to promote the abundance of common bird species. This strategy would ensure the maintenance of the ecosystem services they provide, while promoting the general sustainability of the agroecosystem.

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size.

Factors influencing the movements during the breeding season of a female booted eagle (Aquila pennata) tagged by satellite in central Catalonia (Spain)

Foraging movements during the breeding season are a poorly studied aspect of booted eagle behaviour. We have investigated the relationship between weather and other abiotic factors and foraging behaviour, and also resource use by a female booted eagle, tagged by satellite-GPS transmitter in central Catalonia, during summer 2012 and spring 2013. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) revealed that the distance travelled from the nest was significantly related to temperature, but also to the time of day and the age of chicks. Temperature also had a significant positive influence on flight altitude and the latter on flight speed. The Resource Utilization Function (RUF) showed significant resource use in locations close to water (rivers and water bodies) and also in agricultural areas, preferably close to urban areas and rivers. On the other hand, unlike in other areas of Spain, the use of the edges between forest and agricultural areas and forest areas themselves showed negative coefficients with values not significant, perhaps related to changes in prey availability in the traditional hunting grounds.

Contrasting changes in the abundance and diversity of North American bird assemblages from 1971 to 2010

Although it is generally recognized that global biodiversity is declining, few studies have examined long-term changes in multiple biodiversity dimensions simultaneously. In this study, we quantified and compared temporal changes in the abundance, taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, and phylogenetic diversity of bird assemblages, using roadside monitoring data of the North American Breeding Bird Survey from 1971 to 2010. We calculated 12 abundance and diversity metrics based on 5-year average abundances of 519 species for each of 768 monitoring routes. We did this for all bird species together as well as for four subgroups based on breeding habitat affinity (grassland, woodland, wetland, and shrubland breeders). The majority of the biodiversity metrics increased or remained constant over the study period, whereas the overall abundance of birds showed a pronounced decrease, primarily driven by declines of the most abundant species. These results highlight how stable or even increasing metrics of taxonomic, functional, or phylogenetic diversity may occur in parallel with substantial losses of individuals. We further found that patterns of change differed among the species subgroups, with both abundance and diversity increasing for woodland birds and decreasing for grassland breeders. The contrasting changes between abundance and diversity and among the breeding habitat groups underscore the relevance of a multifaceted approach to measuring biodiversity change. Our findings further stress the importance of monitoring the overall abundance of individuals in addition to metrics of taxonomic, functional, or phylogenetic diversity, thus confirming the importance of population abundance as an essential biodiversity variable.

When Common Birds Became Rare: Historical Records Shed Light on Long-Term Responses of Bird Communities to Global Change in the Largest Wetland of France

Many species have suffered large population declines due to the anthropogenic influence on ecosystems. Understanding historical population trends is essential for informing best efforts to preserve species. We propose a new method to reconstruct the past structure of a regional species pool, based on historical naturalist literature. Qualitative information collected from annotated checklists and reports can be relevant to identify major long-term community changes. We reviewed ornithological literature on the Camargue, the largest wetland in France. We reconstructed the entire breeding bird community from 1830 to 2009 and translated historical data into semi-quantitative data. This data permitted a calculation of a Community Commonness Index to measure the average level of abundance of species in a community. The Community Specialization and Community Temperature Indices were used to evaluate the potential long-term impact of land-use and climate changes on the composition of the regional bird species pool. We found a decrease in average abundance and specialization between 1950 and 1989, suggesting that changes in land-use negatively impacted the structure and composition of the local bird community by reducing species abundance and removing habitat-specialists (e.g. Southern Grey Shrike, Greater Short-toed Lark). These results are likely to be linked with a major loss of natural habitats in the Camargue between 1942 and 1984 when natural areas and traditional farmland were converted into intensive cultivated lands. We also found fluctuations among species with high versus low temperature preference. However, long-term effects of climate change on the bird community might be blurred by the impact of land-use changes. Overall, our results contrast with those obtained from well-monitored colonial waterbirds showing long-term increases. Our results plead for a more regular use of historical naturalist data when examining long-term changes in species communities as they allow the establishment of an older temporal point of reference and consideration of species not covered by traditional monitoring schemes.

Species-Specific Effects on Ecosystem Functioning Can Be Altered by Interspecific Interactions

Biological assemblages are constantly undergoing change, with species being introduced, extirpated and experiencing shifts in their densities. Theory and experimentation suggest that the impacts of such change on ecosystem functioning should be predictable based on the biological traits of the species involved. However, interspecific interactions could alter how species affect functioning, with the strength and sign of interactions potentially depending on environmental context (e.g. homogenous vs. heterogeneous conditions) and the function considered. Here, we assessed how concurrent changes to the densities of two common marine benthic invertebrates, Corophium volutator and Hediste diversicolor, affected the ecological functions of organic matter consumption and benthic-pelagic nutrient flux. Complementary experiments were conducted within homogenous laboratory microcosms and naturally heterogeneous field plots. When the densities of the species were increased within microcosms, interspecific interactions enhanced effects on organic matter consumption and reduced effects on nutrient flux. Trait-based predictions of how each species would affect functioning were only consistently supported when the density of the other species was low. In field plots, increasing the density of either species had a positive effect on organic matter consumption (with no significant interspecific interactions) but no effect on nutrient flux. Our results indicate that species-specific effects on ecosystem functioning can be altered by interspecific interactions, which can be either facilitative (positive) or antagonistic (negative) depending on the function considered. The impacts of biodiversity change may therefore not be predictable based solely on the biological traits of the species involved. Possible explanations for why interactions were detected in microcosms but not in the field are discussed.