Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Revisiting Age Criterion for Surgery in Asymptomatic Primary Hyperparathyroidism

OBJECTIVE

To revisit the current age criterion (50 years) for surgical candidacy in patients diagnosed with asymptomatic primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT).

STUDY DESIGN

A predictive model relying on past publications using the electronic databases "PubMed," "Embase," "Medline," and "Google Scholar."

SETTING

Hypothetical large cohort.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed, based on relevant literature, to compare 2 potential treatment algorithms for asymptomatic PHPT patients, parathyroidectomy (PTX), and observation. The various potential health states were characterized for the 2 treatment options and included potential surgical complications, end-organ deterioration, and death. A 1-way sensitivity analysis was performed to calculate the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains of both strategies. A Monte-Carlo simulation for 30,000 subjects was performed and cycled per annum.

RESULTS

On the basis of the model's assumptions, the QALY value for the PTX strategy was 19.17 versus 17.82 for the observation strategy. The incremental QALY gains for various ages according to the sensitivity analyses for PTX in comparison to observation were: 2.84 QALY for 40-year-old patients, 2.2 QALY for 50-year-old patients, 1.81 QALY for 55-year-old patients, 1.35 QALY for 60-year-old patients, and 0.86 QALY for 65-year-old patients. The incremental QALY is below 0.5 after the age of 75 years.

CONCLUSION

This study found PTX to be advantageous for asymptomatic PHPT patients older than the current age criterion of 50 years. The calculated QALY gains support a surgical approach for medically fit patients in their 50s. The current guidelines for the surgical treatment of young asymptomatic PHPT patients should be revisited by the next steering committee.

Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Brain and Other Central Nervous System Cancer in Wuhan, China, from 2010 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Brain cancer is one of the worst types of cancer worldwide. Understanding the epidemiology of CNS cancer is critical for properly allocating healthcare resources.

METHODS

We collected data on CNS cancer deaths in Wuhan, China, during 2010-2019. We constructed the cause-eliminated life tables to calculate life expectancy (LE), mortality, and years of life lost (YLLs) by age and sex. The BAPC model was used to forecast the future trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Decomposition analysis was adopted to explore the contribution of population growth, population aging, and age-specific mortality to the change in total CNS cancer deaths.

RESULTS

In 2019, the ASMR of CNS cancer was 3.75, and the ASYR was 135.70 in Wuhan, China. ASMR was expected to decrease to 3.43 in 2024. The age distribution of deaths due to CNS cancer was concentrated in the middle-aged and older population, with a peak in the 65-69 age group. Caidian, Jianghan, and Qingshan had the greatest ASMRs in 2019 in Wuhan, with ASMRs of 6.32, 4.78, and 4.75, respectively. Population aging is critical to the change in total CNS cancer deaths.

CONCLUSION

We analyzed the current status, temporal trends, and gender and age distributions of the burden of CNS cancer in Wuhan, during 2010-2019, providing a valuable reference for better lessening the CNS cancer burden.

Core health indicators in countries with high proportion of expatriates: Case study of Qatar

Background

Population size and structure have a huge impact on health indicators. In countries with a high proportion of expatriates, there are some limitations in estimating, aggregating and reporting of the health indicators, and corrections may be required in the established estimation methodologies. We review the case of Qatar to see how its specific population characteristics affect its health indicators.

Methods

We used routinely collected data and reviewed and calculated a selected list of health indicators for Qatari and non-Qatari populations residing in Qatar. Mortality and cancer incidence rates, stratified by nationality, were used for this purpose. Also, a direct method was used to estimate completeness of the death registry, compared to the mortuary data.

Results

Age and sex distribution of Qatari and non-Qatari populations are completely different. Compared to the mortuary data, completeness of death registration for the total population was estimated at 98.9 and 94.3%, with and without considering overseas deaths, respectively. Both estimates were considerably higher than estimates from the indirect methods. Mortality patterns were different even after standardization of age and stratification of sex groups; male age-standardized mortality rates were 502.7 and 242.3 per 100,000 individuals, respectively for Qataris and non-Qataris. The rates were closer in female populations (315.6 and 291.5, respectively). The leading types of cancer incidents were different in Qataris and non-Qataris.

Conclusions

Expatriates are a dynamic population with high-turnover, different from Qatari population in their age-sex structure and health status. They are more likely to be young or middle-aged and are less affected by age related diseases and cancers. Also, they might be at higher risks for specific diseases or injuries. Aggregating indicators of Qatari and non-Qatari populations might be mis-leading for policy making purposes, and common estimation correction approaches cannot alleviate the limitations. High-proportion of expatriate population also imposes significant errors to some of the key demographic estimates (such as completeness of death registry). We recommend a standardized approach to consider nationality in addition to age and sex distributions for analysis of health data in countries with a high proportion of expatriates.

[Completeness of mortality reports in the vital statistics system in the Colombian Orinoquia, 2017]

OBJECTIVE

Estimate the integrity, in terms of completeness, of the mortality records in the vital statistics information system of the Orinoquia and its departments.

METHODOLOGY

A descriptive study was carried out, with a secondary source of information, from the records of non-fetal deaths reported in the vital statistics systems of each department, using methods of distribution of the mortality of Brass, Preston-Coale, Hill and Bennet-Hourichi to estimate the integrity of the records.

RESULTS

Completeness was found in the mortality records of women and men (≥95%) in Meta, and in the men of Orinoquia and Arauca (≥95%), in contrast to the records of the rest of the territorial units, where under-registration is presented.

CONCLUSIONS

Both demographic dynamics and migration influenced the results obtained from the integrity of the mortality records, therefore, also in the selection of the most appropriate method to estimate integrity; when the population is neither stable nor closed, methods based on two censuses with specific growth rates and migration adjustment should be applied; if there is no information on migration, the Hill method is recommended.

Impact of coronary computed tomography angiography-derived fractional flow reserve based on deep learning on clinical management

Background

To examine the value of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-derived fractional flow reserve based on deep learning (DL-FFRCT) on clinical practice and analyze the limitations of the application of DL-FFRCT.

Methods

This is an observational, retrospective, single-center study. Patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) were enrolled. The patients underwent invasive coronary angiography (ICA) examination within 1 months after CCTA examination. And quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) was performed to evaluate the area stenosis rate. The CCTA data of these patients were retrospectively analyzed to calculate the FFRCT value.

Results

A total of 485 lesions of coronary arteries in 229 patients were included in the analysis. Of the lesions, 275 (56.7%) were ICA-positive, and 210 (43.3%) were FFRCT-positive. The discordance rate of the risk stratification of FFRCT for ICA-positive lesions was 33.1% (91) and that for ICA-negative lesions was 12.4% (26). 14.6% (7/48) patients with mild to moderate coronary stenosis in ICA have functional ischemia according to FFRCT positive indications. In addition, hemodynamic analysis of severely calcified, occluded, or small (< 2 mm in diameter) coronary arteries by DL-FFRCT is not so reliable.

Conclusion

This study revealed that most patients with ICA negative did not require further invasive FFR. Besides, some patients with mild to moderate coronary stenosis in ICA may also have functional ischemia. However, for severely calcified, occluded, or small coronary arteries, treatment strategy should be selected based on ICA in combination with clinical practice.

The contributions of injury deaths to the gender gap in life expectancy and life disparity in Eastern Mediterranean Region

BACKGROUND

Injury deaths constitute a major avoidable cause of death affecting life expectancy to a different degree in men and women. This study quantified the contributions of injury deaths to the gender gap in life expectancy (GGLE) and life disparity (GGLD) in nine Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries.

METHODS

We retrieved annual data on age-sex specific causes of death from the World Health Organization mortality database for EMR countries with at least 2-year consecutive data during 2010-2019. The injury-related deaths were categorized into five groups: transport accidents, other accidental injuries, intentional self-harm, assault and events of undetermined intent. Considering women as the reference, the GGLE and GGLD were decomposed by age and causes of death, using a continuous-change model.

RESULTS

The largest and smallest GGLE were observed in Kuwait (5.2 years) and Qatar (- 1.2 years), respectively. Qatar (- 2.2 years) and Oman (0.2 years) had the highest and lowest GGLD. The highest contributions of injury deaths to the GGLE/GGLD were seen in Libya (1.8/- 1.2 years), followed by Iran (1.2/- 0.8 years). Among injury causes, transport accidents were the leading cause of GGLE in all countries but Libya and Morocco, with Iran having the greatest contributions (0.6 years). Injury deaths in men aged 15-29 years accounted for 33% [41%] (Kuwait) to 55% [65%] (Oman) of total GGLE [GGLD] attributable to injury deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

High injury deaths, particularly transport accidents, among young men contributed substantially to the GGLE and GGLD across nine EMR countries in this study. This highlights the need for implementing preventing policies to reduce the burden of injury deaths specifically in young men.

Framing policy objectives in the sustainable development goals: hierarchy, balance, or transformation?

Society continues to be confronted with the deep inadequacies of the current global order. Rampant income inequality between and within countries, dramatic disparities in access to resources, as seen during the COVID pandemic, persistent degradation of the environment, and numerous other problems are tied to existing systems of economy and government. Current global economic systems are implicated in perpetuating these problems. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were born out of the recognition that dramatic changes were needed to address these intersecting challenges. There is general recognition that transformation of global systems and the relationship between sectors is needed. We conduct a structured, theoretically-informed analysis of SDG documents produced by United Nations agencies with the aim of examining the framing of economic policy goals, a historically dominant domain of consideration in development policy, in relation to health, social and environmental goals. We apply a novel typology to categorize the framing of policy goals. This analysis identified that the formal discourse associated with the SDGs marks a notable change from the pre-SDG development discourse. The 'transformational' agenda issued in the SDG documents is in part situated in relation to a critique of previous and existing approaches to development that privilege economic goals over health, social and environmental goals, and position economic policy as the solution to societal concerns. At the same time, we find that there is tension between the aspiration of transformation and an overwhelming focus on economic goals. This work has implications for health governance, where we find that health goals are still often framed as a means to achieve economic policy goals. Health scholars and advocates can draw from our analysis to critically examine how health fits within the transformational development agenda and how sectoral policy goals can move beyond a crude emphasis on economic growth.

The burden of disease of fatal and non-fatal burn injuries for the full spectrum of care in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

A comprehensive overview of the burden of disease of burns for the full spectrum of care is not available. Therefore, we estimated the burden of disease of burns for the full spectrum in the Netherlands in 2018, and explored whether the burden of disease changed over the past 5 years (2014-2018).

METHODS

Data were collected at four levels: general practice, emergency department, hospital, and mortality data. For each level, years lived with disability (YLD), years of life lost (YLL), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) were estimated using a tailored methodology.

RESULTS

Burns resulted in a total of 9278 DALYs in the Netherlands in 2018, comprising of 7385 YLDs (80%) and 1892 YLLs (20%). Burn patients who visited the general practice contributed most DALYs (64%), followed by deceased burn patients (20%), burn patients admitted to hospital (14%) and those treated at the emergency department (2%). The burden of disease was comparable in both sexes (4734 DALYs (51%) for females; 4544 DALYs (49%) for males), though the distribution of DALYs by level of care varied; females contributed more DALYs at the general practice level, and males at all other levels of care. Among children boys 0-4 years had the highest burden of disease (784 DALYs (9%)), and among adults, females 18-34 years old (1319 DALYs (14.2%)) had the highest burden of disease. Between 2014 and 2018 there was a marginal increase of 0.8% in the number of DALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

Burns cause a substantial burden of disease, with burns requiring care at the general practice level contributing most DALYs. Information on burden of burns by the full level of care as well as by subgroup is important for the development of tailored burn prevention strategies, and the updated figures are recommended to be used for priority setting and resource allocation.

Intraurban Geographic and Socioeconomic Inequalities of Mortality in Four Cities in Colombia

Mortality inequalities have been described across Latin American countries, but less is known about inequalities within cities, where most populations live. We aimed to identify geographic and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality within the urban areas of four main cities in Colombia. We analyzed mortality due to non-violent causes of diseases in adults between 2015 and 2019 using census sectors as unit of analysis in Barranquilla, Bogotá, Cali, and Medellín. We calculated smoothed Bayesian mortality rates as main health outcomes and used concentration indexes (CInd) for assessing inequalities using the multidimensional poverty index (MPI) as the socioeconomic measure. Moran eigenvector spatial filters were calculated to capture the spatial patterns of mortality and then used in multivariable models of the association between mortality rates and quintiles of MPI. Social inequalities were evident but not consistent across cities. The most disadvantaged groups showed the highest mortality rates in Cali. Geographic inequalities in mortality rates, regardless of the adults and poverty distribution, were identified in each city, suggesting that other social, environmental, or individual conditions are impacting the spatial distribution of mortality rates within the four cities.

Importance of adherence in the management of hypertension

The WHO indicates that lack of adherence is a matter of the highest priority in Public Health, and is the main cause of not obtaining all the benefits that medications can provide; it is at the origin of medical and psychosocial complications; reduces quality of life; it increases the probability of the appearance of drug resistance and wastes healthcare resources. The no adherence prevalence in hypertension (HTN) ranges between 55.5% with self-reporting and 46.6% with pill counting, and treatment abandonment occurs in 18.5% of patients. The electronic prescription has been validated in HTN using MEMS as a comparison, with sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 93.7%, with an area under the curve of 0.903. In 2019, almost 10 million deaths were directly attributed to HTN. No other disease causes as high a number of deaths and has as high a projected increase in deaths as cardiovascular disease (CVD). By 2030, it is projected that more than 22 million people/year will die from CVD, almost 5 million more than in 2012. In a predictive model for a period of 10 years in five European countries (Italy, Germany, France, Spain and England), the potential savings of increasing adherence to antihypertensive treatment to 70% has been estimated at 332 million euros (80 million in the case of Spain). The use of fixed combinations of two or three drugs is a good method to reduce non-adherence.

Burden and trend of cardiovascular diseases among people under 20 years in China, Western Pacific region, and the world: An analysis of the global burden of disease study in 2019

Objectives

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a global public health concern, but its disease burden and trend have been poorly studied in people younger than 20 years. This study aimed to fill this gap by evaluating the CVD burden and trend in China, Western Pacific Region, and the world from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We applied the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) analytical tools to compare the incidence, mortality, and prevalence of CVD, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among people younger than 20 years from 1990 to 2019 in China, the Western Pacific Region, and the world. The trends of disease burden between 1990 and 2019 evaluated using the average annual percent change (AAPC) and the 95% uncertainty interval (UI) were reported.

Results

Globally, in 2019, there were 2.37 (95% UI: 1.82 to 3.05) million incidence of CVD, 16.85 (95% UI: 12.56 to 22.03) million prevalence of CVD, and 74386.73 (95% UI: 64543.82 to 86310.24) deaths due to CVD among people under 20 years of age. The trends for DALYs decreased among children and adolescents in China, Western Pacific Region, and the world (AAPC = -4.29, 95% CI: -4.38% to -4.20%; AAPC = -3.37, 95% CI: -3.48% to -3.26%; AAPC = -2.17, 95% CI: -2.24% to -2.09%; p < 0.001, respectively) between 1990 and 2019. With the increase in age, the AAPC values of mortality, YLLs, and DALYs showed a notable downward trend. The AAPC values of mortality, YLLs, and DALYs in female patients were significantly greater than those in male patients. For all subtypes of CVD, the AAPC values showed a downward trend, with the largest reduction observed for stroke. From 1990 to 2019, a decline in the DALY rate for all CVD risk factors was observed, with a significant decrease in environmental/occupational risk factors.

Conclusion

Our study shows a decline in the burden and trend of CVD among people younger than 20 years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death, and the early incidence of CVD. More effective and targeted preventive policies and interventions aimed at mitigating preventable CVD burden and addressing risk factors from childhood are urgently needed.

Deaths, causes, and their frequency among Saudi citizens: A descriptive analysis of data from the 2017 Population Characteristics Survey

BACKGROUND

The number of deaths, causes, and frequency measures are crucial in determining the health of a country's population.

OBJECTIVE

The current study aimed to estimate deaths, causes of death, and their frequency for Saudi nationals in 2017.

METHODS

In this descriptive study, we used data from the 2017 Population Characteristics Survey (n = 14,215,901) and performed secondary data analysis between November 2021 and February 2022. We used a total number of survey samples to compute the deaths. The cause of death was determined by dividing the total number of fatalities according to sex. We calculated the overall population-, administrative region-, and gender-wise percentages, rates per 1,000 people per year, the ratios for mortality, and their reasons.

RESULTS

There were 58,915 (0.4%) total deaths, including 0.3% and 0.2% deaths among females and males, respectively. The illness was the most frequent cause of mortality (46.5% or 465 per 1,000 population/year), notably in women (52.5% or 525 per 1,000 population/year). The fatality rate was higher due to traffic accidents (a total of five in every female and four males in every female).

CONCLUSION

In 2017, illness-especially in women-was the cause of death. Road car accidents had a high mortality rate, especially among males. Saudi Arabia has lower death rates than other Arab nations and high-, moderate-, and low-income nations.

Global trends in the incidence rates of MDR and XDR tuberculosis: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Purpose: The study aimed to quantify the global trends of the incidence rates of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (XDR-TB). Methods: Cases, age-standardized rates (ASRs), and incidence rates of MDR-TB and XDR-TB during 2010-2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The incidence trends of MDR-TB and XDR-TB were evaluated using the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASRs. The relationships among the ASRs of MDR-TB and XDR-TB, the MDR rate, the XDR rate, and socio-demographic index (SDI) were assessed using locally weighted regression and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: The global ASR of MDR-TB on average decreased by 1.36% (EAPC = -1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.19 to -0.52) per year whereas that of XDR-TB was stable (EAPC = 0.69, 95% CI = -0.15-1.54) during 2010-2019. The incidence trends of MDR-TB in most regions and countries were decreasing, but those of XDR-TB were increasing. People aged 35-44 and 55-64 years had the highest incidence rates for MDR-TB and XDR-TB. The MDR and XDR rates both peaked in those aged 35-44 years. Areas with higher SDI tended to have lower ASRs of MDR-TB (p < 0.001, ρ = -0.43). Conclusion: The current achievements for the incidence trends of MDR-TB and XDR-TB are insufficient. More strategies and tools need to be developed to further curb MDR-TB and XDR-TB, especially in high-risk areas and age groups, and in low SDI regions.

Spatio-temporal evolution of mortality in Cape Verde: 1995-2018

Located in West Africa, Cabo Verde is a low income country, with significant gains in health indicators. Mortality is an important demographic factor. Its analysis provides essential statistical data for the design, implementation and evaluation of public health programs. The propose of this work is to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of mortality in Cabo Verde between 1995 to 2018. This is an observational, quantitative study that performs demographic analysis of mortality data from the Ministry of Health of Cabo Verde. Specific mortality rates from standardized causes were calculated considering the population of the country as a reference in the year 2010 and also the standardized rate for all causes on each island, aiming at comparing the islands. During the period under analysis, the number of deaths in men was always higher than that of women. The main causes of death were diseases of the circulatory system and with a higher incidence in women. São Nicolau, Brava, and Santo Antão islands have mortality rates, higher than the national level (2010-2018). The main cause of premature death in women as identified as diseases of the circulatory system, while in men it is injuries, trauma, poisoning and external causes. There was a 72% decrease in the mortality rate due to unclassified symptoms and clinical signs, and an increase in respiratory diseases and tumours. With the exception of diseases of the circulatory system, mortality rates in men are higher than in women for all the considered causes. A decrease in specific mortality rates by age group is expected for both sexes, with a greater gain in men in the younger age groups. With these data, it is intended to alert health decision-makers about the best strategies to be defined in the reduction of mortality in the country.

Changing Trends in the Disease Burden of Cataract and Forecasted Trends in China and Globally from 1990 to 2030

Aim

To explore the trends in the prevalence and disease burden of cataract from 1990 to 2019, evaluate attributable risk factors, and predict trends over the next decade in China and globally.

Methods

Data was obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASR) and annual percentage change (EAPC) to show the trends of cataract in China and different regions. We calculated and reported the proportion of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to risk factors by sex in China and different regions. Then, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis model was also used to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in China and globally.

Results

The ASR increased from 867.09 in 1990 to 991.56 in 2019 per 100,000 with an EAPC of 0.88 in China. The age-standardized DALY rate of females was higher than males. DALY rates were correlated to household air pollution from solid fuels, tobacco, high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index. The projective model indicates that the ASR for cataracts will rise to 1101.35×10⁶ for male and 1616.63×10⁶ for female by 2030.

Conclusion

The trends from 1990 to 2030 suggested that the burden of cataract remains high in China. Maintaining good lifestyle habits such as switching to clean energy, reducing cigar intake, controlling blood glucose and weight can reduce the risk of cataracts. As aging increases, China should pay more attention to cataract-induced low vision and blindness and develop public policies to reduce the disease burden.

Plasma-Induced Diallyldimethylammonium Chloride Antibacterial Hernia Mesh

A hernia is a pathological condition caused by a defect or opening in the muscle wall, which leads to organs pushing through the opening or defect. Hernia recurrence, seroma, persistent pain, tissue adhesions, and wound infection are common complications following hernia repair surgery. Infection after hernia mesh implantation is the third major complication leading to hernia recurrence. In order to reduce the incidence of late infections, we developed a polypropylene mesh with antibacterial properties. In this study, knitted polypropylene meshes were exposed to radio-frequency plasma to activate their surfaces. The antibacterial monomer diallyldimethylammonium chloride (DADMAC) was then grafted onto the mesh surface using pentaerythritol tetraacrylate as the cross-linker since it is able to engage all four functional groups to form a high-density cross-linked network. The subsequent antibacterial performance showed a 2.9 log reduction toward Staphylococcus aureus and a 0.9 log reduction for Escherichia coli.

Mapping under-five child malaria risk that accounts for environmental and climatic factors to aid malaria preventive and control efforts in Ghana: Bayesian geospatial and interactive web-based mapping methods

BACKGROUND

Under-five child malaria is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally, especially among sub-Saharan African countries like Ghana. In Ghana, malaria is responsible for about 20,000 deaths in children annually of which 25% are those aged < 5 years. To provide opportunities for efficient malaria surveillance and targeted control efforts amidst limited public health resources, the study produced high resolution interactive web-based spatial maps that characterized geographical differences in malaria risk and identified high burden communities.

METHODS

This modelling and web-based mapping study utilized data from the 2019 Malaria Indicators Survey (MIS) of the Demographic and Health Survey Program. A novel and advanced Bayesian geospatial modelling and mapping approaches were utilized to examine predictors and geographical differences in under-five malaria. The model was validated via a cross-validation approach. The study produced an interactive web-based visualization map of the malaria risk by mapping the predicted malaria prevalence at both sampled and unsampled locations.

RESULTS

In 2019, 718 (25%) of 2867 under-five children surveyed had malaria. Substantial geographical differences in under-five malaria risk were observed. ITN coverage (log-odds 4.5643, 95% credible interval = 2.4086-6.8874), travel time (log-odds 0.0057, 95% credible interval = 0.0017-0.0099) and aridity (log-odds = 0.0600, credible interval = 0.0079-0.1167) were predictive of under-five malaria in the spatial model. The overall predicted national malaria prevalence was 16.3% (standard error (SE) 8.9%) with a range of 0.7% to 51.4% in the spatial model with covariates and prevalence of 28.0% (SE 13.9%) with a range of 2.4 to 67.2% in the spatial model without covariates. Residing in parts of Central and Bono East regions was associated with the highest risk of under-five malaria after adjusting for the selected covariates.

CONCLUSION

The high-resolution interactive web-based predictive maps can be used as an effective tool in the identification of communities that require urgent and targeted interventions by programme managers and implementers. This is key as part of an overall strategy in reducing the under-five malaria burden and its associated morbidity and mortality in a country with limited public health resources where universal intervention is practically impossible.

Ecological study of ambient air pollution exposure and mortality of cardiovascular diseases in elderly

As an independent risk factor, ambient air pollution can assume a considerable part in mortality and worsening of cardiovascular disease. We sought to investigate the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and cardiovascular disease mortality and their risk factors in Iranian's elderly population. This inquiry was conducted ecologically utilizing recorded data on cardiovascular disease mortality from 1990 to 2019 for males and females aged 50 years or more from the Global Burden of Disease dataset. Data was interned into Joinpoint software 4.9.0.0 to present Annual Percent Change (APC), Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC), and its confidence intervals. The relationship between recorded data on ambient air pollution and cardiovascular disease' mortality, the prevalence of high systolic blood pressure, high LDL cholesterol levels, high body mass index, and diabetes mellitus type2 was investigated using the Spearman correlation test in R 3.5.0 software. Our finding demonstrated that cardiovascular diseases in elderly males and females in Iran had a general decreasing trend (AAPC = -0.77% and -0.65%, respectively). The results showed a positive correlation between exposure to ambient ozone pollution (p ≤ 0.001, r = 0.94) ambient particulate and air pollution (p < 0.001, r = 0.99) and mortality of cardiovascular disease. Also, ambient air pollution was positively correlated with high systolic blood pressure (p < 0.001, r = 0.98), high LDL cholesterol levels (p < 0.001, r = 0.97), high body mass index (p < 0.001, r = 0.91), diabetes mellitus type2 (p < 0.001, r = 0.77). Evidence from this study indicated that ambient air pollution, directly and indirectly, affects cardiovascular disease mortality in two ways by increasing the prevalence of some traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors. Evidence-based clinical and public health methodologies are necessary to decrease the burden of death and disability associated with cardiovascular disease.

Establishment of an indicator framework for global One Health Intrinsic Drivers index based on the grounded theory and fuzzy analytical hierarchy-entropy weight method

BACKGROUND

One Health has become a global consensus to deal with complex health problems. However, the progress of One Health implementation in many countries is still relatively slow, and there is a lack of systematic evaluation index. The purpose of this study was to establish an indicator framework for global One Health Intrinsic Drivers index (GOH-IDI) to evaluate human, animal and environmental health development process globally.

METHOD

First, 82 studies were deeply analyzed by a grounded theory (GT) method, including open coding, axial coding, and selective coding, to establish a three-level indicator framework, which was composed of three selective codes, 19 axial codes, and 79 open codes. Then, through semi-structured interviews with 28 health-related experts, the indicators were further integrated and simplified according to the inclusion criteria of the indicators. Finally, the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process combined with the entropy weight method was used to assign weights to the indicators, thus, forming the evaluation indicator framework of human, animal and environmental health development process.

RESULTS

An indicator framework for GOH-IDI was formed consisting of three selective codes, 15 axial codes and 61 open codes. There were six axial codes for "Human Health", of which "Infectious Diseases" had the highest weight (19.76%) and "Injuries and Violence" had the lowest weight (11.72%). There were four axial codes for "Animal Health", of which "Animal Epidemic Disease" had the highest weight (39.28%) and "Animal Nutritional Status" had the lowest weight (11.59%). Five axial codes were set under "Environmental Health", among which, "Air Quality and Climate Change" had the highest weight (22.63%) and "Hazardous Chemicals" had the lowest weight (17.82%).

CONCLUSIONS

An indicator framework for GOH-IDI was established in this study. The framework were universal, balanced, and scientific, which hopefully to be a tool for evaluation of the joint development of human, animal and environmental health in different regions globally.

The association between serum cadmium and diabetes in the general population: A cross-sectional study from NHANES (1999-2020)

Background

Associations between serum cadmium and diabetes had been reported in previous studies, however there was still considerable controversy regarding associations. Studies in general population that investigated the effects of serum cadmium on diabetes were currently lacking. We designed this cross-sectional study among U.S. adults under high and low cadmium exposure to assess associations between serum cadmium and diabetes.

Methods

This cross-sectional study analyzed 52,593 adults who aged more than 20 years and participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2020. The missing values and extreme values in the covariables were filled by multiple interpolation. Univariate logistics regression, multivariate logistics regression and smooth fitting curves were used to analyze the association between serum cadmium and diabetes. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis was carried out by converting the serum cadmium from continuous variable to categorical variable. The stratification logistics regression model was used to analyze whether there were special groups in each subgroup to test the stability of the results.

Results

In this cross-sectional study, serum cadmium levels were negatively correlated with the occurrence of diabetes in the low serum cadmium exposure group (OR = 0.811, 95% CI 0.698, 0.943; P = 0.007). There was no association between serum cadmium level and the occurrence of diabetes in the high serum cadmium exposure group (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.982, 1.037; P = 0.511). These results were consistent across all the subgroups (P for interaction >0.05).

Conclusion

Serum cadmium was negatively associated diabetes among the representative samples of the whole population in the United States under the normal level of serum cadmium exposure. However, there was no association between serum cadmium level and the occurrence of diabetes in the high serum cadmium exposure group. This study promoted an update of new preventative strategy targeting environment for the prevention and control of diabetes in the future.

Aging, frailty, and design of built environments

Before developing agriculture, herding or metallurgy, humans occupied most of the world. Multiple socioculturally-based responses supported their migration, including building shelters and constructing niches to limit environmental stressors. Sheltered settings provided social support and security during stressful times, along with opportunities for injured, aging, and frail members to survive. Modern built environments are designed for similar purposes, to support human growth, development, reproduction, and maintenance. However, extended survival in modern settings has costs. With age, muscle (sarcopenia) and bone loss (osteopenia, osteoporosis), along with somatic, physiological, and sensory dysfunction, reduce our physical capabilities, increase our frailty, and impede our abilities to interface with built and natural environments and manufactured artifacts. Thereby, increasing our dependence on built environments to maintain autonomy and quality of life.

What follows is a conceptual review of how frailty may limit seniors within modern built environments. It suggests age-related frailty among seniors provides specific data for those designing environments for accessibility to all users. It is based in human ecological theory, and physiological and gerontological research showing senescent alterations, including losses of muscle, bone, and sensory perceptions, produce a frail phenotype with increasing age limiting our mobility, activity, use of space, and physical abilities. As an individual phenotype, frailty leads to age-related physical and performance declines. As a physiological assessment, frailty indices amalgamate individual measures of functional abilities into a single score. Such frailty indices increase with age and differ betwixt individuals and across groups. To design built environments that improve access, usability, and safety for aging and frail citizens, today’s seniors provide living samples and evidence for determining their future abilities, limitations, and design needs. Designing built environments to accommodate and improve the quality of human-environment interactions for frail seniors will improve usability and accessibility for most user groups.

Impact of Nutrition Interventions for Reduction of Anemia in Women of Reproductive Age in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Meta-Review

Background

The UN Sustainable Development Goal aims at a 50% reduction of anemia in women of reproductive age (WRA) by 2030. Several nutrition-specific and sensitive interventions are targeted across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to reduce anemia.

Objectives

In this meta-review we comprehensively assessed the effectiveness of nutrition-specific and -sensitive interventions on hemoglobin (Hb) and serum ferritin (SF) concentrations and the prevalence of iron deficiency and anemia among WRA, pregnant women, and lactating women from LMICs.

Method

The preparation of the present meta-review followed a double-blinded synthesis process with 3 stages: screening, quality appraisal, and data extraction in Eppi Reviewer. A comprehensive search was performed for systematic reviews (SRs) published between January 2000 and May 2022 using 21 international, national, and regional databases. The methodological quality appraisal of included studies was conducted using the Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist.

Results

A total of 23 SRs evaluated the effects of various nutrition-specific interventions included in the final synthesis. The included SRs included analyses of nutrition-specific interventions such as supplementation of the nutrients iron (n = 7), iron and folic acid (n = 4), vitamin A (n = 3), calcium (n = 2), multiple micronutrients (n = 7), and intravenous iron sucrose (n = 2). Also, SRs on fortification of nutrients included multiple micronutrients (n = 6), iron and folic acid (n = 4), and iron (n = 4). Of the 23 SRs, 22 were of high quality. Iron with or without folic acid supplementation and fortification and vitamin A supplementation consistently showed positive effects on either reduction in the prevalence of anemia or iron deficiency and improving the Hb or SF concentrations in WRA and pregnant women from LMICs.

Conclusion

The comprehensive meta-review reported the beneficial effects of iron with or without folic acid, multiple micronutrient supplementation/fortification, and vitamin A supplementation in reducing the prevalence of anemia or iron deficiency and increasing Hb or SF concentrations in WRA from LMICs.

Disability, a priority area for health research in South Africa: an analysis of the burden of disease study 2017

PURPOSE

Disabilities are increasing globally, which is attributed to the overall ageing of populations in affluent countries. This trend may differ in low and middle-income countries. This paper assesses the change over time in Years Lived with Disability (YLD) for South Africa and how this compares to regional and global trends.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 dataset describes the observed contribution of YLD to Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per 100 000 people over the period 1990-2016, and forecast to 2030 using simple linear prediction. South African trends are compared to global and sub-Saharan African (SSA) trends to highlight the effect of HIV and policy implications.

RESULTS

Globally, the contribution of YLD to DALYs has increased from ±21.7% in 1990 to ±34% by 2016, with high socio-demographic index countries having a higher contribution (49%). HIV, mental health, musculoskeletal, neurological, and sense organ disorders are the five main contributors to YLD in South Africa (54%). Removing the effects of HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections on YLD, South Africa's trend appears similar to the global trend, yet opposite to the SSA trend.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis shows there is a growing burden of disability in South Africa. Differences in trends with the regional and global patterns can be attributed to the high burden of HIV and non-communicable diseases in South Africa. Therefore, strategies are urgently needed to increase integration of disability and rehabilitation services into chronic HIV and non-communicable disease management. This calls for disability screening to identify functional limitations in routine data collection and case management.IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONSouth Africa has experienced an increase in disability prevalence over time.This requires strengthening of services such as mental health interventions, physiotherapy, optometry, and audiology, and linking major disease clusters, such as HIV and the NCDs, to rehabilitation services.The greatest contributors towards disability adjusted life years in South Africa are currently mental disorders (13.8%), HIV and sexually transmitted infections (11.8%), musculoskeletal disorders (10.4%), neurological disorders (8.2%), and sense organ diseases (7.5%).Routine data collection and case management needs to include disability screening to identify developing functional limitations.

Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing a New Framework to Review and Standardise Documentation of Model Assumptions and Facilitate Model Comparison

There is growing interest in producing estimates of demographic and global health indicators in populations with limited data. Statistical models are needed to combine data from multiple data sources into estimates and projections with uncertainty. Diverse modelling approaches have been applied to this problem, making comparisons between models difficult. We propose a model class, Temporal Models for Multiple Populations (TMMPs), to facilitate both documentation of model assumptions in a standardised way and comparison across models. The class makes a distinction between the process model, which describes latent trends in the indicator interest, and the data model, which describes the data generating process of the observed data. We provide a general notation for the process model that encompasses many popular temporal modelling techniques, and we show how existing models for a variety of indicators can be written using this notation. We end with a discussion of outstanding questions and future directions.

Feasibility and acceptability of a paeārahi (Indigenous Whānau Ora navigator) intervention for unintentional injury prevention for older Māori: non-randomised, non-comparator trial study protocol

BACKGROUND

Māori (the Indigenous population of Aotearoa New Zealand) experience increased burden of unintentional injury and reduced access to publicly funded injury prevention and rehabilitation services, compared with non-Māori. Māori-led models of care have been shown to improve outcomes for Māori. Paeārahi navigate across sectors (including health, education, housing and employment) to advocate for the best possible outcomes for individuals and families. This study aims to (1) test the acceptability and feasibility and (2) undertake exploratory efficacy analysis of a paeārahi injury intervention for Māori older adults.

METHODS

A prospective non-randomised, non-comparator study with preintervention and postintervention measurements of predefined outcomes. Eligible participants who consented to participate (Māori, 55+ years, community-dwelling and enrolled in one of three study general practices) will undergo a multivisit paeārahi intervention. The intervention includes home-hazard assessment, basic health screening, teaching of strength and balance exercises, education relating to injury prevention and access to injury-related, referral and connection to other health and social services) and participants can choose to have whānau (family) involved in the intervention.

OUTCOMES

The primary outcome of interest is participant, whānau and paeārahi acceptability of the intervention. Secondary outcomes include intervention feasibility, cost-effectiveness and exploratory efficacy (including preintervention and postintervention unintentional injury-related hospitalisation, primary care access and public injury-related claims).

DISCUSSION

The findings of this intervention research will be used to inform injury care models for older Māori and process for Māori-led health intervention development more generally.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12621001691831p.

Incidence and risk factors of diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population: a dynamic cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes mellitus is a common condition often associated with an ageing population. However, only few longitudinal studies in China have investigated the incidence of diabetes and identified its risk factors. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the incidence and risk factors of diabetes in Chinese people aged ≥45 years using the harmonised China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data.

DESIGN

A dynamic cohort study.

SETTING

The harmonised CHARLS 2011-2018.

PARTICIPANTS

19 988 adults aged ≥45 years.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Incident diabetes from 2011 to 2018.

RESULTS

The harmonised CHARLS is a representative longitudinal survey of people aged ≥45 years. Using data extracted from the harmonised CHARLS, we calculated the incidence of diabetes and used a competing risk model to determine risk factors of diabetes. In 2011-2013, 2013-2015, 2015-2018, the crude incidence of diabetes among middle-aged and older people in China was 1403.21 (1227.09 to 1604.19), 1673.22 (1485.73 to 1883.92) and 3919.83 (3646.01 to 4213.30) per 100 000 person-years, respectively, with a significant increasing trend. There were no geographical variations in the incidence of diabetes. Age, obesity and alcohol consumption were associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of diabetes increased annually, without any geographical differences. Age, obesity and alcohol consumption were found to be risk factors for incident diabetes.

Diet in a global cohort of adults with HIV at low-to-moderate traditional cardiovascular disease risk

OBJECTIVE

To characterize diet quality across a global cohort of people with HIV (PWH).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis.

METHODS

Leveraging REPRIEVE data from baseline across five Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions, we analyzed participant responses to the Rapid Eating Assessment for Participants questionnaire. An overall diet quality score and scores for specific diet components were generated. Higher scores indicate better diet quality.

RESULTS

Among 7736 participants (median age 50 years, 30% women, median BMI 25.8 kg/m 2 ) overall diet quality score (max score 30) was optimal in 13% of participants and good, suboptimal or poor in 45%, 38%, and 4% of participants, respectively; saturated fat score (max score 18) was good, suboptimal, or poor in 38%, 40%, or 7% of participants, respectively. Diet quality scores differed across GBD region with the highest scores reported in the South Asia region [median 23 (21-25)] and lowest in the sub-Saharan Africa region [median 15 (12-18)]; 61% of participants in the South Asia region reported optimal diet quality compared with only 6% in the sub-Saharan Africa region. Higher atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk scores were seen with worsening diet quality.

CONCLUSION

Among PWH eligible for primary CVD prevention, diet quality was suboptimal or poor for almost half of participants, and there were substantial variations in diet quality reported by GBD region.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02344290.

Trends and patterns of North Korea’s disease burden from 1990 to 2019: Results from Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Background

Evidence for the trends and patterns of disease burden in North Korea is limited, and in-depth analysis based on several health outcomes for a better understanding remains challenging. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the trends and patterns of disease burden in North Korea between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study to analyze the North Korean disease burden in comparison with four groups: global, South Korea, low-sociodemographic index (SDI) countries, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia (former socialist countries). We also examined changes in the disease burden between 1990 and 2019 by disease category and age group.

Findings

In 2019, in North Korea, death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were reduced by 22.2% and 30.7%, respectively, compared to 1990. The rates showed similar trends and patterns to that in former socialist countries. However, these reductions were lower than those of the global rates and rates in low-SDI countries and South Korea. Death rates and DALY rates for under five years dramatically decreased by more than 78%, similar to the trend in South Korea. In contrast, the decline in the death rates and DALY rates of adults was less than those worldwide and in low-SDI countries and South Korea. The burden of diseases among those aged ≥30 years increased largely due to the persistently high burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and chronic respiratory diseases were the leading causes of the disease burden in both 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

North Korea’s disease burden patterns and trends show clear improvements over the past 30 years but suggest that the current challenges of NCDs in the country are very serious. NCDs should be no longer neglected and should be prioritized in public health agendas in North Korea.

Socioeconomic and contextual determinants of the burden of disease attributable to metabolic risks in childhood

We analyze the socioeconomic and political contextual determinants of the burden of disease attributable to three metabolic risks in children: kidney dysfunction, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. We use data from 121 countries. We matched data of the Global Burden of Disease project, World Bank and United Nations databases. The burden of disease is measured with the Disability Adjusted Life Years lost. We explore associations with four groups of variables: (i) income level, which measures differences in socioeconomic conditions between countries; (ii) income inequality, which measures within country inequalities in the income distribution; (iii) health care expenditure, which measures the resources allocated to health and healthcare, and (iv) women empowerment, which we measure in terms of both educational and political participation. Our findings point toward the need to act at the root of the underlying factors underpinning the disease burden, namely: reducing between and, particularly, within-country income inequalities, increasing the role of expenditure on health, and ensuring women empowerment and girls education. To our knowledge, this is the first study that have identified the associations of these variables with the burden of disease that is specifically attributable to metabolic risks in childhood.

The BLOODSAFE program: Building the future of access to safe blood in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

The supply of blood in many low- and middle-income nations in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) does not meet the patient care needs. Lack and delay of blood transfusion cause harm to patients and slow the rate of progress in other parts of the health system. Recognizing the power of implementation science, the BLOODSAFE Program was initiated which supports three SSA research study teams and one data coordinating center (DCC) with the goal to improve access to safe blood transfusion in SSA.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The study team in Ghana is focusing on studying and decreasing iron deficiency in blood donors and evaluating social engagement of blood donors through different approaches. The study team in Kenya is building a "vein to vein" workflow model to elucidate and devise strategies to overcome barriers to blood donation and improve infrastructural components of blood product production and use. The Malawi team is studying the infectious disease ramifications of blood donation as well as blood donor retention strategies aimed at blood donors who commence their donation career in secondary schools.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Together the project teams and the DCC work as a consortium to support each other through a shared study protocol that will study donor motivations, outcomes, and adverse events across all three countries. The BLOODSAFE Program has the potential to lead to generalizable improvement approaches for increasing access to safe blood in SSA as well as mentoring and building the research capacity and careers of many investigators.

Sequence Type 5 (ST5) as a Possible Predictor of Bacterial Persistence in Adult Patients with Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Pneumonia Treated with Vancomycin

Vancomycin remains the mainstay of treatment for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) pneumonia. This study assessed risk factors for vancomycin failure in 63 patients with MRSA pneumonia through detailed clinical, microbiological, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic, and genetic analyses of prospective multicenter studies conducted from February 2012 to July 2018. Therapeutic drug monitoring was performed during vancomycin treatment, and the 24-h area under the curve (AUC_0-24) was calculated. All baseline strains were collected for MIC determination, heterogeneous vancomycin-intermediate S. aureus (hVISA) screening, and biofilm determination. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on the isolates to analyze their molecular typing and virulence and adhesion genes. Clinical signs and symptoms improved in 44 patients (44/63, 69.8%), with vancomycin daily dose (P = 0.045), peak concentration (P = 0.020), and sdrC (P = 0.047) being significant factors. Isolates were eradicated in 51 patients (51/63, 81.0%), with vancomycin daily dose (P = 0.009), cardiovascular disease (P = 0.043), sequence type 5 (ST5; P = 0.017), tst (P = 0.050), and sec gene (P = 0.044) associated with bacteriological failure. Although the AUC_0-24/MIC was higher in the groups with bacterial eradication, the difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.108). Multivariate analysis showed that no variables were associated with clinical efficacy; ST5 was a risk factor for bacterial persistence (adjusted odds ratio, 4.449; 95% confidence interval, 1.103 to 17.943; P = 0.036). ST5 strains had higher frequencies of the hVISA phenotype, biofilm expression, and presence of some adhesion and virulence genes such as fnbB, tst, and sec than non-ST5 strains. Our study suggests that ST5 is a possible predictor of bacterial persistence in MRSA pneumonia treated with vancomycin. IMPORTANCE Few studies have simultaneously examined the influence of clinical characteristics of patients with pneumonia, the vancomycin pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) index, and the phenotypic and genetic characteristics of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) strains. We assessed risk factors for vancomycin failure in patients with MRSA pneumonia by analyzing these influences in a prospective multicenter study. Sequence type 5 (ST5) was a possible predictor of bacterial persistence in adult patients with MRSA pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio, 4.449). We found that this may be related to ST5 strains having higher levels of vancomycin heterogeneous resistance, biofilms, and the presence of adhesion and virulence genes such as fnbB, tst, and sec.

A global, regional, and national survey on burden and Quality of Care Index (QCI) of bladder cancer: The global burden of disease study 1990-2019

INTRODUCTION

Bladder cancer (BCa) is the second most common genitourinary cancer and among the leading causes of cancer-related deaths. We aimed to assess BCa quality of care (QOC) utilizing a novel multi-variable quality of care index (QCI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2019 database. QCI scores were calculated using four indices of prevalence-to-incidence ratio, Disability-Adjusted Life Years-to-prevalence ratio, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and Years of Life Lost-to-Years Lived with Disability ratio. We used principal component analysis to allocate 0-100 QCI scores based on region, age groups, year, and gender.

RESULTS

Global burden of BCa is on the rise with 524,305 (95% UI 475,952-569,434) new BCa cases and 228,735 (95% UI 210743-243193) deaths in 2019, but age-standardized incidence and mortality rates did not increase. Global age-standardized QCI improved from 75.7% in 1990 to 80.9% in 2019. The European and African regions had the highest and lowest age-standardized QCI of 89.7% and 37.6%, respectively. Higher Socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles had better QCI scores, ranging from 90.1% in high SDI to 30.2% in low SDI countries in 2019; however, 5-year QCI improvements from 2014 to 2019 were 0.0 for high and 4.7 for low SDI countries.

CONCLUSION

The global QCI increased in the last 30 years, but the gender disparities remained relatively unchanged despite substantial improvements in several regions. Higher SDI quintiles had superior QOC and less gender- and age-based inequalities compared to lower SDI countries. We encourage countries to implement the learned lessons and improve their QOC shortcomings.

Elevated Anxious and Depressed Mood Relates to Future Executive Dysfunction in Older Adults: A Longitudinal Network Analysis of Psychopathology and Cognitive Functioning

Vulnerability models posit that executive-functioning (EF) problems centrally affect future common (vs. rare) psychopathology symptoms. Conversely, scar theory postulates that depression/anxiety (vs. other psychopathology) symptoms centrally influence reduced EF. However, most studies so far have been cross-sectional. We used cross-lagged panel network analysis to determine temporal and component-to-component relations on this topic. Community older adults participated across four time points. Cognitive tests and the caregiver-rated Neuropsychiatric Inventory assessed nine psychopathology and eight cognitive-functioning nodes. Nodes with the highest bridge expected influence cross-sectionally were agitation and episodic memory. Episodic memory had the strongest inverse relation with age. Agitation had the strongest negative association with global cognition. EF nodes tended to be centrally affected by prior depressed and anxious moods rather than influential on any future nodes. Heightened anxious and depressed mood (vs. other nodes) centrally predicted future decreased EF-related (vs. non-EF-related) nodes in older adults, supporting scar (vs. vulnerability) theory.

Association between Ultra-Processed Food Consumption and Diabetes in Chinese Adults-Results from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

Aims: We aimed to assess the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption with diabetes in Chinese adults. Methods: This study included 12,849 eligible adults aged 20 years and over attending at least two surveys in the China Nutrition and Health Survey during 1997−2011. Food intake at each survey was assessed by a 3-day 24-h dietary recall method. UPF was defined based on the NOVA classification. Diabetes was obtained from questionnaires and/or ascertained by fasting blood tests. The association of diabetes with UPF was examined using mix effect logistic regression adjusting for potential confounding factors. Results: The mean age of the participants was 43.3 (SD 14.8) years. The age and gender adjusted mean UPF intake increased four times and the prevalence of diabetes increased eight times in 1997−2011. Compared with non-consumers, the odds ratios (95% CI) of diabetes for those with mean UPF consumption of 1−19 g/day, 20−49 g/day, and ≥50 g/day were 1.21 (0.98, 1.48), 1.49 (1.19, 1.86), and 1.40 (1.08, 1.80), respectively (p trend < 0.001) after adjusted for the measured covariates including lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol drinking, and physical activity), BMI and hypertension. Conclusions: both UPF consumption and prevalence of diabetes increased among adults in China during 1997−2011. Higher UPF consumption was positively associated with diabetes.

The state of health in Indonesia's provinces, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Analysing trends and levels of the burden of disease at the national level can mask inequalities in health-related progress in lower administrative units such as provinces and districts. We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to analyse health patterns in Indonesia at the provincial level between 1990 and 2019. Long-term analyses of disease burden provide insights on Indonesia's advance to universal health coverage and its ability to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

METHODS

We analysed GBD 2019 estimated cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, and risk factors for 286 causes of death, 369 causes of non-fatal health loss, and 87 risk factors by year, age, and sex for Indonesia and its 34 provinces from 1990 to 2019. To generate estimates for Indonesia at the national level, we used 138 location-years of data to estimate Indonesia-specific demographic indicators, 317 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific causes of death, 689 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific non-fatal outcomes, 250 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific risk factors, and 1641 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific covariates. For subnational estimates, we used the following source counts: 138 location-years of data to estimate Indonesia-specific demographic indicators; 5848 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific causes of death; 1534 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific non-fatal outcomes; 650 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific risk factors; and 16 016 location-years of data for Indonesia-specific covariates. We generated our GBD 2019 estimates for Indonesia by including 1 915 207 total source metadata rows, and we used 821 total citations.

FINDINGS

Life expectancy for males across Indonesia increased from 62·5 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·3-63·7) to 69·4 years (67·2-71·6) between 1990 and 2019, a positive change of 6·9 years. For females during the same period, life expectancy increased from 65·7 years (64·5-66·8) to 73·5 years (71·6-75·6), an increase of 7·8 years. There were large disparities in health outcomes among provinces. In 2019, Bali had the highest life expectancy at birth for males (74·4 years, 70·90-77·9) and North Kalimantan had the highest life expectancy at birth for females (77·7 years, 74·7-81·2), whereas Papua had the lowest life expectancy at birth for males (64·5 years, 60·9-68·2) and North Maluku had the lowest life expectancy at birth for females (64·0 years, 60·7-67·3). The difference in life expectancy for males between the highest-ranked and lowest-ranked provinces was 9·9 years and the difference in life expectacy for females between the highest-ranked and lowest-ranked provinces was 13·7 years. Age-standardised death, YLL, and YLD rates also varied widely among the provinces in 2019. High systolic blood pressure, tobacco, dietary risks, high fasting plasma glucose, and high BMI were the five leading risks contributing to health loss measured as DALYs in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings highlight that Indonesia faces a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases that varies across provinces. From 1990 to 2019, Indonesia witnessed a decline in the infectious disease burden, although communicable diseases such as tuberculosis, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections have remained a main source of DALYs in Indonesia. During that same period, however, all-ages death and disability rates from non-communicable diseases and exposure to their risk factors accounted for larger shares of health loss. The differences in health outcomes between the highest-performing and lowest-performing provinces have also widened since 1990. Our findings support a comprehensive process to revisit current health policies, examine the root causes of variation in the burden of disease among provinces, and strengthen programmes and policies aimed at reducing disparities across the country.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Government of Indonesia.

TRANSLATION

For the Bahasa Indonesia translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

With the increase in the aging population worldwide, Alzheimer's disease has become a rapidly increasing public health concern. Monitoring the dementia disease burden will support health development strategies by providing scientific data.

METHODS

Based on the data obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, the numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed. Calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to evaluate the trends during this period. We also evaluated the correlations between the epidemiology and the sociodemographic index (SDI), an indicator to evaluate the level of social development in a country or region considering the education rate, economic situation, and total fertility rate.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias increased by 147.95 and 160.84%, respectively. The ASR of incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs in both men and women consistently increased over the study period. All the ASRs in women were consistently higher than those in men, but the increases were more pronounced in men. In addition, the ASRs of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs were positively correlated with the SDI. Moreover, the proportion of patients over 70 years old with dementia was also positively correlated with the SDI level. Smoking was a major risk factor for the disease burden of dementia in men, while obesity was the major risk factor for women.

CONCLUSION

From 1990 to 2019, the Alzheimer's disease burden increased worldwide. This trend was more serious in high-SDI areas, especially among elderly populations in high-SDI areas, who should receive additional attention. Policy-makers should take steps to reverse this situation. Notably, women were at a higher risk for the disease, but the risk in men showed a faster increase. We should give attention to the aging population, attach importance to interventions targeting dementia risk factors, and formulate action plans to address the increasing incidence of dementia.

Levels and Trends of Maternal Mortality and Morbidity by Cause in North Africa and Middle East, 1990 to 2019: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Since 1990, the maternal mortality significantly decreased at global scale as well as the North Africa and Middle East. However, estimates for mortality and morbidity by cause and age at national scale in this region are not available.

METHODS

This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019. Here we report maternal mortality and morbidity by age and cause across 21 countries in the region from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, maternal mortality ratio (MMR) dropped from 148.8 (129.6-171.2) to 94.3 (73.4-121.1) per 100000 live births in North Africa and Middle East. In 1990, MMR ranged from 6.0 (5.3-6.8) in Kuwait to 502.9 (375.2-655.3) per 100000 live births in Afghanistan. Respective figures for 2019 were 5.1 (4.0-6.4) in Kuwait to 269.9 (195.8-368.6) in Afghanistan. Percentages of deaths under 25 years was 26.0% in 1990 and 23.8% in 2019. Maternal hemorrhage, indirect maternal deaths, and other maternal disorders rank 1st to 3rd in the entire region. Ultimately, there was an evident decrease in MMR along with increase in socio-demographic index from 1990 to 2019 in all countries in the region and an evident convergence across nations.

CONCLUSION

MMR has significantly declined in the region since 1990 and only five countries (Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, Morocco, and Algeria) out of 21 nations didn't achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 70 deaths per 100000 live births in 2019. Despite the convergence in trends, there are still disparities across countries.

Geographical Differences in the Self-Reported Functional Impairment of People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Associations With Cardiometabolic Risk

BACKGROUND

We sought to explore multinational differences in functional status by global burden of disease (GBD) regions in the REPRIEVE cohort.

METHODS

REPRIEVE is a prospective, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, multicenter, phase III primary cardiovascular prevention study of pitavastatin calcium vs placebo among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PWH) ages 40-75 on antiretroviral therapy (ART). GBD super regions were defined using World Health Organization classifications. Participants were categorized by impairment on the Duke Activity Status Instrument (DASI: none, some, moderate, severe). Logistic regression models examined risk factors and GBD regions associated with functional impairment. The association between functional impairment and cardiometabolic risk was also explored.

RESULTS

Of 7736 participants, the majority were from high-income countries (n = 4065), were male (65%), and had received ART for ≥ 10 years. The median DASI score was 58.2 (interquartile range [IQR] 50.2, 58.2); 36% reported at least some impairment. In adjusted analyses, functional impairment was significantly more frequent among participants from Southeast/East Asia. Other factors associated with greater impairment included female sex, Black race, older age, current/former smoking, higher body mass index, use of ART for ≥ 10 years, and select ART regimens; differences were seen in risks across GBD regions. Functional impairment was associated with increased cardiometabolic risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 1/3 of middle-aged and older PWH in a global cohort across diverse GBD regions demonstrate functional impairments. The associations between DASI and cardiometabolic risk suggest that a measure of functional status may improve risk prediction; these longitudinal associations will be further investigated over REPRIEVE trial follow-up.

Smartphone Apps for Patients With Hematologic Malignancies: Systematic Review and Evaluation of Content

BACKGROUND

Hematological malignancies (HMs) are a heterogeneous group of cancers representing a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. The chronification of HMs and the increasing use of smartphones may lead patients to seek their current unmet needs through mobile health apps.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this review was to identify and assess the quality of smartphone apps aimed at patients diagnosed with HMs.

METHODS

A systematic search of apps that were aimed at patients diagnosed with HMs, accessed from a Spain IP address, and were available on the iOS (App Store) and Android (Google Play) platforms was conducted in November 2021. The search terms used were "hematology," "blood cancer," "leukemia," "lymphoma," and "myeloma" apps in English, Spanish, or both languages. The identified apps were downloaded and analyzed independently by 2 reviewers. Information about general app characteristics was collected. The Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS) was used to assess quality. The resulting parameter of the analyses, the mean score of the apps, was compared by Student t test.

RESULTS

Overall, 18 apps were identified; 7 were available on Android, 5 were available on iOS, and 6 were available on both platforms. All included apps were free; 3 were published in 2021, and among the apps published before 2021, only 6 were updated in 2021. Most (16/18, 89%) of the apps were aimed at patients with leukemia or lymphoma (16). The primary purposes of the apps were to provide general information about the condition (16/18, 89%) and monitor symptoms and clinical parameters (11/18, 61%). Health care professionals contributed to the development of 50% (9/18) of apps; 6 were owned and supported by scientific societies, and 3 were developed with the participation of health care professionals. The mean MARS score for the overall quality of the apps was 3.1 (SD 1.0). The engagement and aesthetics subscales were the lowest rated subscales, with only 44% (8/18) and 67% (12/18), respectively, of the apps obtaining acceptable scores. None of the included apps proved clinical efficacy through clinical trials in patients with HMs. Statistically significant differences were found in the MARS scores between operating systems (+1.0, P=.003) in favor of iOS apps. The participation of health care professionals in the development of the apps did not have a statistically significant impact on the MARS scores.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic search and evaluation identified few acceptable quality mobile apps for patients with HMs. Current and future apps for patients with HMs should provide evidence-based valuable information, improve user engagement, incorporate functions according to patient preferences, and generate evidence regarding the efficacy of app use by patients with HMs.

Epidemiology, burden, and attributable risks of infective endocarditis in Iran and its provinces: From 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Endocarditis is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality and an escalating incidence in recent decades. In this study, as a part of the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study, we intend to report endocarditis burden in Iran at national and provincial levels from 1990 to 2019.

METHOD

This study was conducted using GBD 2019 study data on endocarditis from 1990 to 2019. We gathered incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality rates in Iran and its 31 provinces by sex and age groups as epidemiological indices for endocarditis burden. Further decomposition analysis was also performed to delineate the endocarditis new cases trend.

RESULTS

On the country scale, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate were (16.5 (95% uncertainty interval 13.7 to 19.8), 3.4 (2.9 to 4.1), 0.6 (0.5 to 0.9), and 14.4 (12.0 to 21.1) in 2019, respectively. Decomposition analysis showed that only 59.2% of the overall new cases increase (114.1%) was caused by the incidence rate change. All estimated age-standardized rates were higher in men in 1990 and 2019 with a ratio of 1.1-1.5.

CONCLUSION

The ASIR and ASPR of endocarditis increased, and the ASMR and age-standardized DALYs rate declined over the past 30 years in Iran, nearly all the provinces followed the same pattern with North Khorasan having the Highest ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and DALYs rates in both years. High systolic blood pressure (SBP) had the greatest attributed burden among risk factors.

Biochemical and Hematological Markers in Workers with Chronical Exposure to Lead and Cadmium in Colombia

The aim of the present study was to find if workers chronically exposed to lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) presented changes in their general health and in the clinical parameters of the population under study. We carried out a cross-sectional survey in a sample of informal workers in Cartagena, Colombia. The population under study was composed of male informal workers (≥18 years of age), with experience in their job, selected from occupational settings with potential exposure to Pb and Cd (i.e., mechanics, battery and garbage recyclers, and welders). The median age was 45 years (interquartile range (IQR), 33−53). The median blood Pb level (BLL) was 2 μg/dL (IQR, 0.76−6.22), and the median of blood Cd level (BCL) was 1.22 μg/L (IQR, 0.33−2.01). The study found that 33% of high exposure jobs with BLL > 5 μg/dL (n = 57), whereas in ‘control’ workers, this was 15.3% (n = 9). The highest BLLs were found in battery recyclers (82.1%; n = 23), followed by mechanics (37.3%, n = 22). In the logistic regression model adjusted by age, time on the job, smoking and elevated BCL and BLL increased 3.2 times (95% CI, 1.1−9.7) in mechanics and 29.6 times (95% CI, 7.2−145.6) in battery recyclers. This study found negative changes in the health of workers with higher chronic exposure to lead in Cartagena, Colombia.

Epidemiological study on the lip and oral cavity cancer in Brazil: connecting science and clinical applicability

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe and discuss the epidemiological indicators of lip and oral cavity cancer in Brazil, in 2017, according to data from the Global Burden of Disease data.

METHODS

This is a descriptive study reported according to STROBE guidelines. We identified epidemiological indicators using the Global Burden of Disease results tool. Mortality/incidence rates were described per 100,000 population. Global Burden of Disease 2017 reviews were completed using Python version 2.7, Stata version 13.1, and R version 3.3.

RESULTS

In 2017, there were 5,237 deaths from the lip or oral cavity cancer in Brazil, most of them were males aged between 50 and 69 years (2,730 cases, which was equivalent to 52% of the universe of deaths resulting from this cause). Regarding the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer, per 100,000 Brazilians, we observed an incidence of 3.99, prevalence of 15.46, and mortality of 2.29 (with higher indicators in the South and Southeast regions of the country).

CONCLUSIONS

Epidemiological indicators of lip and oral cavity cancer were higher in men, with higher mortality indicators in individuals aged 50-69 years, and higher rates (incidence, prevalence, and mortality) in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. From 2002-2015, there was a reduction in mortality; however, in the period from 2015-2017, there was a resumption in the growth of this indicator.

The Association of Socioeconomic Status With Hypertension in 76 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

BACKGROUND

Effective equity-focused health policy for hypertension in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) requires an understanding of the condition's current socioeconomic gradients and how these are likely to change in the future as countries develop economically.

OBJECTIVES

This cross-sectional study aimed to determine how hypertension prevalence in LMICs varies by individuals' education and household wealth, and how these socioeconomic gradients in hypertension prevalence are associated with a country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

METHODS

We pooled nationally representative household survey data from 76 LMICs. We disaggregated hypertension prevalence by education and household wealth quintile, and used regression analyses to adjust for age and sex.

RESULTS

We included 1,211,386 participants in the analysis. Pooling across all countries, hypertension prevalence tended to be similar between education groups and household wealth quintiles. The only world region with a clear positive association of hypertension with education or household wealth quintile was Southeast Asia. Countries with a lower GDP per capita had, on average, a more positive association of hypertension with education and household wealth quintile than countries with a higher GDP per capita, especially in rural areas and among men.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in hypertension prevalence between socioeconomic groups were generally small, with even the least educated and least wealthy groups having a substantial hypertension prevalence. Our cross-sectional interaction analyses of GDP per capita with the socioeconomic gradients of hypertension suggest that hypertension may increasingly affect adults in the lowest socioeconomic groups as LMICs develop economically.

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on incidence and mortality of asthma in Sichuan Province, China, 1990-2019

Background

The provinces in western China have undergone rapid urbanization and industrialization, particularly since the Chinese government launched the Great Western Development Strategy in 2000. We examined the time trends and contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to asthma incidence and mortality in Sichuan Province, a populous province in western China, from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

The data of Sichuan Province from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends and average annual percentage change were estimated using joinpoint regression. Age, period, and cohort effects were estimated using an age-period-cohort model with the intrinsic estimator method.

Results

In the latest period (2015–2019), the highest incidence of asthma was 2004.49/100,000 in children aged < 5 years, and the highest mortality rate was 22.04/100,000 for elderly people aged > 80 years. Age-standardized rates generally remained stable (95% confidence interval [CI]  − 0.21, 0.11) for incidence and declined by 4.74% (95% CI − 5.09, − 4.39) for mortality over the last 30 years. After controlling for other effects, the age effect on asthma showed that the incidence rate ratio (RR) was highest in the < 5 years age group, and the mortality RR was highest in the > 80 years age group. The period effect on incidence and mortality decreased from 1990 to 2019, respectively. A cohort effect was found the incidence RR increased slowly from the early birth cohorts to the later birth cohorts, especially after the 2005 birth cohort, whereas the mortality RR continued to decline.

Conclusions

There was a significant effect of older age on the asthma mortality rate over the last 30 years, and the incidence rate in children aged < 5 years increased. The relative risk of asthma incidence in the later birth cohorts increased. Effective preventive measures and public health policies should be to protect children and elderly people from potentially harmful chronic diseases.

Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease

Climate change is adversely affecting the burden of infectious disease throughout the world, which is a health security threat. Climate-sensitive infectious disease includes vector-borne diseases such as malaria, whose transmission potential is expected to increase because of enhanced climatic suitability for the mosquito vector in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Climatic suitability for the mosquitoes that can carry dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is also likely to increase, facilitating further increases in the geographic range and longer transmission seasons, and raising concern for expansion of these diseases into temperate zones, particularly under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Early spring temperatures in 2018 seem to have contributed to the early onset and extensive West Nile virus outbreak in Europe, a pathogen expected to expand further beyond its current distribution, due to a warming climate. As for tick-borne diseases, climate change is projected to continue to contribute to the spread of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, particularly in North America and Europe. Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease and public health concern in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; climate change is anticipated to change its distribution, with both expansions and contractions expected. Other water-borne diseases that cause diarrheal diseases have declined significantly over the last decades owing to socioeconomic development and public health measures but changes in climate can reverse some of these positive developments. Weather and climate events, population movement, land use changes, urbanization, global trade, and other drivers can catalyze a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks. These cascading risk pathways of causally connected events can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large. We review climatic and other cascading drivers of infectious disease with projections under different climate change scenarios. Supplementary file1 (MP4 328467 KB).