Characterisation of the first 250,000 hospital admissions for COVID-19 in Brazil: a retrospective analysis of nationwide data

Mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients was associated with the COVID-19 admission rate during the first year of the pandemic in Sweden

INTRODUCTION

Studies from the first pandemic wave found associations between COVID-19 hospital load and mortality. Here, we aimed to study if mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients was associated with the COVID-19 admission rate during a full year of the pandemic in Sweden.

METHOD

Observational review of all patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in Sweden between March 2020 and February 2021 (n = 42,017). Primary outcome was 60-day all-cause mortality related to number of COVID-19 hospital admissions per month/100,000 inhabitants. Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk for death by month of admission, adjusting for pre-existing factors.

RESULTS

The overall mortality was 17.4%. Excluding March 2020, mortality was clearly correlated to the number of COVID-19 admissions per month (coefficient of correlation ρ=.96; p<.0001). After adjustment for pre-existing factors, the correlation remained significant (ρ=.75, p=.02). Patients admitted in December (high admission rate and high mortality) had more comorbidities and longer hospital stays, and patients treated in intensive care units (ICU) had longer pre-ICU hospital stays and worse respiratory status on ICU admission than those admitted in July to September (low admission rate and low mortality).

CONCLUSION

Mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients was clearly associated with the COVID-19 admission rate. Admission of healthier patients between pandemic waves and delayed ICU care during wave peaks could contribute to this pattern. The study supports measures to flatten-the-curve to reduce the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital.

Sepsis in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019: how often and how severe?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss why severe COVID-19 should be considered sepsis and how co-infection and secondary infection can aggravate this condition and perpetuate organ dysfunction leading to high mortality rates.

RECENT FINDINGS

In severe COVID-19, there is both direct viral toxicity and dysregulated host response to infection. Although both coinfection and/or secondary infection are present, the latest is of greater concern mainly in resource-poor settings. Patients with severe COVID-19 present a phenotype of multiorgan dysfunction that leads to death in an unacceptable high percentage of the patients, with wide variability around the world. Similarly to endemic sepsis, the mortality of COVID-19 critically ill patients is higher in low-income and middle-income countries as compared with high-income countries. Disparities, including hospital strain, resources limitations, higher incidence of healthcare-associated infections (HAI), and staffing issues could in part explain this variability.

SUMMARY

The high mortality rates of critically ill patients with severe COVID-19 disease are not only related to the severity of patient disease but also to modifiable factors, such as the ICU strain, HAI incidence, and organizational aspects. Therefore, HAI prevention and the delivery of best evidence-based care for these patients to avoid additional damage is important. Quality improvement interventions might help in improving outcomes mainly in resource-limited settings.

Geographical variation in demand, utilization, and outcomes of hospital services for COVID-19 in Brazil: A descriptive serial cross-sectional study

Objective

To analyze the geographical variation in the provision of health services, namely in demand, patterns of utilization, and effectiveness in the Brazilian Health Regions in four different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic, from February 2020 to March 2021.

Methods

Descriptive serial cross-sectional study based on secondary data on COVID-19 hospitalizations from SIVEP-Gripe, a public and open-access database of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness records collected by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and COVID-19 case notification data from Brasil.io, a repository of public data. Fifty-six epidemiological weeks were split into four periods. The following variables were considered for each Brazilian Health Region, per period: number of hospitalizations, hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants, hospitalizations per 100 new cases notified in the Health Region, percentage of hospitalizations with ICU use, percentages of hospitalizations with invasive and non-invasive ventilatory support, percentage of hospitalizations resulting in death and percentage of hospitalizations with ICU use resulting in death. Descriptive statistics of the variables were obtained across all 450 Health Regions in Brazil over the four defined pandemic periods. Maps were generated to capture the spatiotemporal variation and trends during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil.

Results

There was great variation in how COVID-19 hospitalizations grew and spread among Health Regions, with higher numbers between June and August 2020, and, especially, from mid-December 2020 to March 2021. The variation pattern in the proportion of ICU use in the hospitalizations across the Health Regions was broad, with no intensive care provision in large areas in the North, Northeast, and Midwest. The proportions of hospitalizations and hospitalizations with ICU use resulting in deaths were remarkably high, reaching medians of 34.0% and 62.0% across Health Regions, respectively.

Conclusion

The Heath Regions in Brazil are highly diverse, showing broad disparities in the capacity to respond to the demands imposed by COVID-19, services provided, use and outcomes.

Drug-induced liver injury and COVID-19: A review for clinical practice

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) consists of a systemic disease that can present many complications. The infection presents broad clinical symptoms and a high rate of transmissibility. In addition to severe acute respiratory syndrome, the patients manifest complications beyond the respiratory system. The frequency of liver damage in COVID-19 patients ranges from 14.8% to 53% of patients. One should pay attention to drug-induced liver injury (DILI) in patients with COVID-19, especially considering the off-label use of drugs in prophylactic and therapeutic regimens applied on large scales. This review aims to present relevant information on the medication used so far in COVID-19 patients and its possible hepatotoxicity. We reviewed liver damage in patients with COVID-19 on PubMed and Virtual Health Library to investigate DILI cases. Four studies were selected, involving the medicines remdesivir, tocilizumab and a pharmacovigilance analysis study. The hepatotoxicity profile of drugs presented in the literature considers use in accordance to usual posology standards for treatment. However, drugs currently used in the management of COVID-19 follow different dosages and posology than those tested by the pharmaceutical industry. The deficiency of uniformity and standardization in the assessment of hepatotoxicity cases hinders the publication of information and the possibility of comparing information among healthcare professionals. It is suggested that severe liver injury in COVID-19 patients should be reported in pharmacovigilance institutions, and physicians should pay attention to any considerable abnormal liver test elevation as it can demonstrate unknown drug hepatotoxicity. Liver disorders in COVID-19 patients and the use of several concomitant off-label medications — with a potential risk of further damaging the liver - should at least be a warning sign for rapid identification and early intervention, thus preventing liver damage from contributing to severe impairment in patients.

Therapeutic application of estrogen for COVID-19: Attenuation of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and IL-6 stimulated, ACE2-dependent NOX2 activation, ROS production and MCP-1 upregulation in endothelial cells

The outbreak of COVID-19 has remained uncontained with urgent need for robust therapeutics. We have previously reported sex difference of COVID-19 for the first time indicating male predisposition. Males are more susceptible than females, and more often to develop into severe cases with higher mortality. This predisposition is potentially linked to higher prevalence of cigarette smoking. Nonetheless, we found for the first time that cigarette smoking extract (CSE) had no effect on angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2) expression in endothelial cells. The otherwise observed worse outcomes in smokers is likely linked to baseline respiratory diseases associated with chronic smoking. Instead, we hypothesized that estrogen mediated protection might underlie lower morbidity, severity and mortality of COVID-19 in females. Of note, endothelial inflammation and barrier dysfunction are major mediators of disease progression, and development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multi-organ failure in patients with COVID-19. Therefore, we investigated potential protective effects of estrogen on endothelial cells against oxidative stress induced by interleukin-6 (IL-6) and SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S protein). Indeed, 17β-estradiol completely reversed S protein-induced selective activation of NADPH oxidase isoform 2 (NOX2) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) production that are ACE2-dependent, as well as ACE2 upregulation and induction of pro-inflammatory gene monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) in endothelial cells to effectively attenuate endothelial dysfunction. Effects of IL-6 on activating NOX2-dependent ROS production and upregulation of MCP-1 were also completely attenuated by 17β-estradiol. Of note, co-treatment with CSE had no additional effects on S protein stimulated endothelial oxidative stress, confirming that current smoking status is likely unrelated to more severe disease in chronic smokers. These data indicate that estrogen can serve as a novel therapy for patients with COVID-19 via inhibition of initial viral responses and attenuation of cytokine storm induced endothelial dysfunction, to substantially alleviate morbidity, severity and mortality of the disease, especially in men and post-menopause women. Short-term administration of estrogen can therefore be readily applied to the clinical management of COVID-19 as a robust therapeutic option.

Spatial clusters, social determinants of health and risk of maternal mortality by COVID-19 in Brazil: a national population-based ecological study

BACKGROUND

Detailed information on how socio-economic characteristics are related to COVID-19 incident cases and maternal deaths is needed. We investigated the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases and maternal deaths in Brazil and their association with social determinants of health.

METHODS

This was a population-based ecological study with a spatial analysis of all cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the obstetric population. Data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the obstetric population, social vulnerability, health inequities, and health system capacity at the municipal level were obtained from several publicly sources in Brazil. A Bayesian empirical local model was used to identify fluctuations of the indicators. Spatial statistic tests were used to identity the spatial clusters and measure the municipalities' risk of COVID-19 in the obstetric population. Beta regression was used to characterise the association between socio-economic indicators and the burden of COVID-19.

FINDINGS

A total of 13,858 cases and 1,396 deaths due to COVID-19 were recorded in Brazil from March 2020 to June 2021. There was a variation in the number of cases per municipality, with 105 municipalities with rates from 2,210 to 3,884 cases and 45 municipalities with rates from 3,884 to 7,418 cases per 100,000 live births. The maternal mortality ratio also varied widely across municipalities. There was a spatial dependence on smoothed maternal mortality rates (I Moran 0•10; P = 0•010), and 15 municipalities had higher risk of maternal deaths. Municipalities characterized by lower health resources and higher socioeconomic inequalities presented the highest rates of incidence and maternal mortality by COVID-19.

INTERPRETATION

In Brazil, COVID-19 cases and deaths in the obstetric population had a heterogeneous geographical distribution, with well-defined spatial clusters mostly located in the countryside. Municipalities with a high degree of socioeconomic dissimilarities showed higher maternal mortality rates than areas with better social and infrastructure indicators.

FUNDING

None.

Reduction in life expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19

Brazil has been heavily affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we used data on reported total deaths in 2020 and in January-April 2021 to measure and compare the death toll across states. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0) of 1.3 years, a mortality level not seen since 2014. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 (e65) in 2020 was 0.9 years, setting Brazil back to 2012 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 9.1% the female-male gap in e0. Among states, Amazonas lost 60.4% of the improvements in e0 since 2000. In the first 4 months of 2021, COVID-19 deaths represented 107% of the total 2020 figures. Assuming that death rates would have been equal to 2019 all-cause rates in the absence of COVID-19, COVID-19 deaths in 2021 have already reduced e0 in 2021 by 1.8 years, which is slightly larger than the reduction estimated for 2020 under similar assumptions.

Optimized delay of the second COVID-19 vaccine dose reduces ICU admissions

Slower than anticipated, COVID-19 vaccine production and distribution have impaired efforts to curtail the current pandemic. The standard administration schedule for most COVID-19 vaccines currently approved is two doses administered 3 to 4 wk apart. To increase the number of individuals with partial protection, some governments are considering delaying the second vaccine dose. However, the delay duration must take into account crucial factors, such as the degree of protection conferred by a single dose, the anticipated vaccine supply pipeline, and the potential emergence of more virulent COVID-19 variants. To help guide decision-making, we propose here an optimization model based on extended susceptible, exposed, infectious, and removed (SEIR) dynamics that determines the optimal delay duration between the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses. The model assumes lenient social distancing and uses intensive care unit (ICU) admission as a key metric while selecting the optimal duration between doses vs. the standard 4-wk delay. While epistemic uncertainties apply to the interpretation of simulation outputs, we found that the delay is dependent on the vaccine mechanism of action and first-dose efficacy. For infection-blocking vaccines with first-dose efficacy ≥50%, the model predicts that the second dose can be delayed by ≥8 wk (half of the maximal delay), whereas for symptom-alleviating vaccines, the same delay is recommended only if the first-dose efficacy is ≥70%. Our model predicts that a 12-wk second-dose delay of an infection-blocking vaccine with a first-dose efficacy ≥70% could reduce ICU admissions by 400 people per million over 200 d.

Emergency medical admissions and COVID-19: impact on 30-day mortality and hospital length of stay

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has put considerable strain on healthcare systems.

AIM

To investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on 30-day in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS) and resource utilization in acute medical care.

METHODS

We compared emergency medical admissions to a single secondary care centre during 2020 to the preceding 18 years (2002-2019). We investigated 30-day in-hospital mortality with a multiple variable logistic regression model. Utilization of procedures/services was related to LOS with zero truncated Poisson regression.

RESULTS

There were 132,715 admissions in 67,185 patients over the 19-year study. There was a linear reduction in 30-day in-hospital mortality over time; over the most recent 5 years (2016-2020), there was a relative risk reduction of 36%, from 7.9 to 4.3% with a number needed to treat of 27.7. Emergency medical admissions increased 18.8% to 10,452 in 2020 with COVID-19 admissions representing 3.5%. 18.6% of COVID-19 cases required ICU admission with a median stay of 10.1 days (IQR 3.8, 16.0). COVID-19 was a significant univariate predictor of 30-day in-hospital mortality, 18.5% (95%CI: 13.9, 23.1) vs. 3.0% (95%CI: 2.7, 3.4)-OR 7.3 (95%CI: 5.3, 10.1). ICU admission was the dominant outcome predictor-OR 12.4 (95%CI: 7.7, 20.1). COVID-19 mortality in the last third of 2020 improved-OR 0.64 (95%CI: 0.47, 0.86). Hospital LOS and resource utilization were increased.

CONCLUSION

A diagnosis of COVID-19 was associated with significantly increased mortality and LOS but represented only 3.5% of admissions and did not attenuate the established temporal decline in overall in-hospital mortality.

Effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccine in older adults during a gamma variant associated epidemic of covid-19 in Brazil: test negative case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effectiveness of the inactivated whole virus vaccine, CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech), against symptomatic covid-19 in the elderly population of São Paulo state, Brazil during widespread circulation of the gamma variant.

DESIGN

Test negative case-control study.

SETTING

Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo state, Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

43 774 adults aged ≥70 years who were residents of São Paulo state and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 29 April 2021. 26 433 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 17 622 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 13 283 matched sets, one case with to up to five controls, according to age, sex, self-reported race, municipality of residence, previous covid-19 status, and date of RT-PCR test (±3 days).

INTERVENTION

Vaccination with a two dose regimen of CoronaVac.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths.

RESULTS

Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic covid-19 was 24.7% (95% confidence interval 14.7% to 33.4%) at 0-13 days and 46.8% (38.7% to 53.8%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions was 55.5% (46.5% to 62.9%) and against deaths was 61.2% (48.9% to 70.5%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Vaccine effectiveness ≥14 days after the second dose was highest for the youngest age group (70-74 years)-59.0% (43.7% to 70.2%) against symptomatic disease, 77.6% (62.5% to 86.7%) against hospital admissions, and 83.9% (59.2% to 93.7%) against deaths-and declined with increasing age.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination with CoronaVac was associated with a reduction in symptomatic covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths in adults aged ≥70 years in a setting with extensive transmission of the gamma variant. Vaccine protection was, however, low until completion of the two dose regimen, and vaccine effectiveness was observe to decline with increasing age among this elderly population.

Public expenditure on hospitalizations for COVID-19 treatment in 2020, in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

Describe the expenditure resulting from hospitalizations for clinical treatment of users diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Unified Health System (SUS) between February and December 2020.

METHODS

This is a descriptive study based on data from the Hospital Information System about government expenditure on hospitalizations for clinical treatment of users diagnosed with COVID-19 and causes included in the ICD-10 chapters. We obtained the number of hospitalizations, average length of stay, lethality rate, and total expenditure considering hospital services, professional services and average expenditure per hospitalization.

RESULTS

In the period evaluated, SUS registered 462,149 hospitalizations, 4.9% of them for COVID-19 treatment. Total expenditure exceeded R$ 2.2 billion, with 85% allocated to hospital services and 15% to professional services. Expenditure for treating COVID-19 was distributed differently between the country's regions. The Southeast region had the highest number of hospitalizations, highest total amount spent, highest average length of stay in days, and highest lethality rate; the South region, in turn, recorded the highest percentage of spending on non-profit hospitals (58%) and corporate hospitals (15%).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalizations for clinical treatment of coronavirus infection were more costly compared to those for treatment of acute respiratory failure and pneumonia or influenza. Our results show the disparities in hospitalization expenditure for similar procedures between the regions of Brazil, underlining the vulnerability and the need for strategies to reduce the differences in access, use, and distribution of SUS resources, ensuring equanimity, and considering the unfair inequalities between the country's regions.

Risk factors for COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality in a high HIV and tuberculosis prevalence setting in South Africa: a cohort study

Background

The interaction between COVID-19, non-communicable diseases, and chronic infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis is unclear, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries in Africa. South Africa has a national HIV prevalence of 19% among people aged 15–49 years and a tuberculosis prevalence of 0·7% in people of all ages. Using a nationally representative hospital surveillance system in South Africa, we aimed to investigate the factors associated with in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19.

Methods

In this cohort study, we used data submitted to DATCOV, a national active hospital surveillance system for COVID-19 hospital admissions, for patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 5, 2020, and March 27, 2021. Age, sex, race or ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, chronic cardiac disease, chronic pulmonary disease and asthma, chronic renal disease, malignancy in the past 5 years, HIV, and past and current tuberculosis) were considered as risk factors for COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality. COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, the main outcome, was defined as a death related to COVID-19 that occurred during the hospital stay and excluded deaths that occurred because of other causes or after discharge from hospital; therefore, only patients with a known in-hospital outcome (died or discharged alive) were included. Chained equation multiple imputation was used to account for missing data and random-effects multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the role of HIV status and underlying comorbidities on COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.

Findings

Among the 219 265 individuals admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and known in-hospital outcome data, 51 037 (23·3%) died. Most commonly observed comorbidities among individuals with available data were hypertension in 61 098 (37·4%) of 163 350, diabetes in 43 885 (27·4%) of 159 932, and HIV in 13 793 (9·1%) of 151 779. Tuberculosis was reported in 5282 (3·6%) of 146 381 individuals. Increasing age was the strongest predictor of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality. Other factors associated were HIV infection (adjusted odds ratio 1·34, 95% CI 1·27–1·43), past tuberculosis (1·26, 1·15–1·38), current tuberculosis (1·42, 1·22–1·64), and both past and current tuberculosis (1·48, 1·32–1·67) compared with never tuberculosis, as well as other described risk factors for COVID-19, such as male sex; non-White race; underlying hypertension, diabetes, chronic cardiac disease, chronic renal disease, and malignancy in the past 5 years; and treatment in the public health sector. After adjusting for other factors, people with HIV not on antiretroviral therapy (ART; adjusted odds ratio 1·45, 95% CI 1·22–1·72) were more likely to die in hospital than were people with HIV on ART. Among people with HIV, the prevalence of other comorbidities was 29·2% compared with 30·8% among HIV-uninfected individuals. Increasing number of comorbidities was associated with increased COVID-19 in-hospital mortality risk in both people with HIV and HIV-uninfected individuals.

Interpretation

Individuals identified as being at high risk of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality (older individuals and those with chronic comorbidities and people with HIV, particularly those not on ART) would benefit from COVID-19 prevention programmes such as vaccine prioritisation as well as early referral and treatment.

Funding

South African National Government.

With Great Hopes Come Great Expectations: Access and Adoption Issues Associated With COVID-19 Vaccines

Although COVID-19 vaccines are becoming increasingly available, their ability to effectively control and contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is highly contingent on an array of factors. This paper discusses how limitations to vaccine accessibility, issues associated with vaccine side effects, concerns regarding vaccine efficacy, along with the persistent prevalence of vaccine hesitancy among the public, including health care professionals, might impact the potential of COVID-19 vaccines to curb the pandemic. We draw insights from the literature to identify practical solutions that could boost people’s adoption of COVID-19 vaccines and their accessibility. We conclude with a discussion on health experts’ and government officials’ moral and ethical responsibilities to the public, even in light of the urgency to adopt and endorse “the greatest amount of good for the greatest number” utilitarian philosophy in controlling and managing the spread of COVID-19.

Higher severity and risk of in-hospital mortality for COVID-19 patients with cancer during the year 2020 in Brazil: A countrywide analysis of secondary data

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and cancer are serious public health problems worldwide. However, little is known about the risk factors of in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients with and without cancer in Brazil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk factors of in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients with and without cancer and to compare mortality according to gender and topography during the year 2020 in Brazil.

METHODS

This was a secondary data study of hospitalized adult patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 by real-time polymerase chain reaction testing in Brazil. The data were collected from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System.

RESULTS

This study analyzed data from 322,817 patients. The prevalence of cancer in patients with COVID-19 was 2.3%. COVID-19 patients with neurological diseases and cancer had the most lethal comorbidities in both sexes. COVID-19 patients with cancer were more likely to be older (median age, 67 vs 62 years; P < .001), to have a longer hospital stay (13.1 vs 11.5 days; P < .001), to be admitted to the intensive care unit (45.3% vs 39.6%; P < .001), to receive more invasive mechanical ventilation (27.1% vs 21.9%), and to have a higher risk of death (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.83-2.06; P < .001) than those without cancer. Patients with hematological neoplasia (aOR, 2.85; 95% CI, 2.41-3.38; P < .001) had a higher risk of mortality than those with solid tumors (aOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.72-1.95; P < .001) in both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Brazilian COVID-19 patients with cancer have higher disease severity and a higher risk of mortality than those without cancer.

Estimating the early impact of vaccination against COVID-19 on deaths among elderly people in Brazil: Analyses of routinely-collected data on vaccine coverage and mortality

Background: Vaccination against COVID-19 in Brazil started in January 2021, with health workers and the elderly as the priority groups. We assessed whether there was an impact of vaccinations on the mortality of elderly individuals in a context of wide transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 gamma (P.1) variant. Methods: By May 15, 2021, 238,414 COVID-19 deaths had been reported to the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Denominators for mortality rates were calculated by correcting population estimates for all-cause deaths reported in 2020. Proportionate mortality at ages 70-79 and 80+ years relative to deaths at all ages were calculated for deaths due to COVID-19 and to other causes, as were COVID-19 mortality rate ratios relative to individuals aged 0-69 years. Vaccine coverage data were obtained from the Ministry of Health. All results were tabulated by epidemiological weeks 1-19, 2021. Findings: The proportion of all COVID-19 deaths at ages 80+ years was over 25% in weeks 1-6 and declined rapidly to 12.4% in week 19, whereas proportionate COVID-19 mortality for individuals aged 70-79 years started to decline by week 15. Trends in proportionate mortality due to other causes remained stable. Mortality rates were over 13 times higher in the 80+ years age group compared to that of 0-69 year olds up to week 6, and declined to 5.0 times in week 19. Vaccination coverage (first dose) of 90% was reached by week 9 for individuals aged 80+ years and by week 13 for those aged 70-79 years. Coronavac accounted for 65.4% and AstraZeneca for 29.8% of all doses administered in weeks 1-4, compared to 36.5% and 53.3% in weeks 15-19, respectively. Interpretation: Rapid scaling up of vaccination coverage among elderly Brazilians was associated with important declines in relative mortality compared to younger individuals, in a setting where the gamma variant predominates. Had mortality rates among the elderly remained proportionate to what was observed up to week 6, an estimated additional 43,802 COVID-related deaths would have been expected up to week 19. Funding: CGV and AJDB are funded by the Todos pela Saúde (São Paulo, Brazil) initiative.

Migratory pattern of the coronavirus disease 2019 and high fatality rates among kidney transplant recipients: report from the Brazilian Multicenter Cohort Study

Introduction:

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected kidney transplant (KT) recipients, with worldwide fatality rates around 25%. Considering the well-known Brazilian socio-demographic disparities, this report describes for the first time the main outcomes of COVID-19 in KT recipients according to Brazilian geographic regions.

Methods:

This multicenter national retrospective analysis included data from KT recipients with confirmed COVID-19 between March and November 2020.

Results:

Thirty-five of the 81 centers (57% of KT activity in Brazil) reported 1,680 patients with COVID-19. The Northeast was the first to reach the peak in the number of infections. The Southeast, due to its population density, contributed with the largest number of patients. Patients had a median age of 52 years, 76% had hypertension and 34% diabetes, 75% were recipients of a deceased donor, and the time interval between diagnosis and transplantation was 5.9 years. In 53% of patients, immunosuppression was adjusted, and clinical support varied according to geographic region. Hospitalization was required for 65% of the patients, 35% of them needed intensive care, 25% mechanical ventilation, and 23% renal replacement therapy. The 90-day overall fatality was 21%, being 23% in the Southeast, 16% in the Northeast, and 19% in the Central-west and South regions.

Conclusion:

The migratory pattern of the pandemic among KT recipients followed that of the general population and the outcomes were influenced by regional features. COVID-19 in KT recipients was associated with high utilization of health-care resources and higher fatality rates than those reported in the general population.

High mortality among kidney transplant recipients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019: Results from the Brazilian multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

Kidney transplant (KT) recipients are considered a high-risk group for unfavorable outcomes in the course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

AIM

To describe the clinical aspects and outcomes of COVID-19 among KT recipients.

METHODS

This multicenter cohort study enrolled 1,680 KT recipients diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and November 2020, from 35 Brazilian centers. The main outcome was the 90-day cumulative incidence of death, for the entire cohort and according to acute kidney injury (AKI) and renal replacement therapy (RRT) requirement. Fatality rates were analyzed according to hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mechanical ventilation (MV) requirement. Multivariable analysis was performed by logistic regression for the probability of hospitalization and death.

RESULTS

The median age of the recipients was 51.3 years, 60.4% were men and 11.4% were Afro-Brazilian. Comorbidities were reported in 1,489 (88.6%), and the interval between transplantation and infection was 5.9 years. The most frequent symptoms were cough (54%), myalgia (40%), dyspnea (37%), and diarrhea (31%), whereas the clinical signs were fever (61%) and hypoxemia (13%). Hospitalization was required in 65.1%, and immunosuppressive drugs adjustments were made in 74.4% of in-hospital patients. ICU admission was required in 34.6% and MV in 24.9%. In the multivariable modeling, the variables related with the probability of hospitalization were age, hypertension, previous cardiovascular disease, recent use of high dose of steroid, and fever, dyspnea, diarrhea, and nausea or vomiting as COVID-19 symptoms. On the other hand, the variables that reduced the probability of hospitalization were time of COVID-19 symptoms, and nasal congestion, headache, arthralgia and anosmia as COVID-19 symptoms. The overall 90-day cumulative incidence of death was 21.0%. The fatality rates were 31.6%, 58.2%, and 75.5% in those who were hospitalized, admitted to the ICU, and required MV, respectively. At the time of infection, 23.2% had AKI and 23.4% required RRT in the follow-up. The cumulative incidence of death was significantly higher among recipients with AKI (36.0% vs. 19.1%, P < 0.0001) and in those who required RRT (70.8% vs. 10.1%, P < 0.0001). The variables related with the probability of death within 90 days after COVID-19 were age, time after transplantation, presence of hypertension, previous cardiovascular disease, use of tacrolimus and mycophenolate, recent use of high dose of steroids, and dyspnea as COVID-19 symptom. On the other hand, the variables that reduced the risk of death were time of symptoms, and headache and anosmia as COVID-19 symptoms.

CONCLUSION

The patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were long-term KT recipients and most of them had some comorbidities. One in every five patients died, and the rate of death was significantly higher in those with AKI, mainly when RRT was required.

Coronavirus Disease-2019 Survival in Mexico: A Cohort Study on the Interaction of the Associated Factors

The pandemic caused by the new coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently affecting more than 200 countries. The most lethal clinical presentation is respiratory insufficiency, requiring attention in intensive care units (ICU). The most susceptible people are over 60 years old with comorbidities. The health systems organization may represent a transcendental role in survival. Objective: To analyze the correlation of sociodemographic factors, comorbidities and health system organization variables with survival in cases infected by SARS-CoV-2 during the first 7 months of the pandemic in Mexico. Methods: The cohort study was performed in a health system public basis from March 1st to September 30th, 2020. The included subjects were positive for the SARS-CoV-2 test, and the target variable was mortality in 60 days. The risk variables studied were: age, sex, geographic distribution, comorbidities, health system, hospitalization, and access to ICU. Bivariate statistics (X2-test), calculation of fatality rates, survival analyses and adjustment of confusing variables with Cox proportional-hazards were performed. Results: A total of 753,090 subjects were analyzed, of which the 52% were men. There were 78,492 deaths (10.3% of general fatality and 43% inpatient). The variables associated with a higher risk of hospital mortality were age (from 60 years onwards), care in public sectors, geographic areas with higher numbers of infection and endotracheal intubation without management in the ICU. Conclusions: The variables associated with a lower survival in cases affected by SARS-CoV-2 were age, comorbidities, and respiratory insufficiency (with endotracheal intubation without care in the ICU). Additionally, an interaction was observed between the geographic location and health sector where they were treated.

Lower peripheral blood Toll-like receptor 3 expression is associated with an unfavorable outcome in severe COVID-19 patients

The role of innate immunity in COVID-19 is not completely understood. Therefore, this study explored the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection on the expression of Pattern Recognition Receptors (PRRs) in peripheral blood cells and their correlated cytokines. Seventy-nine patients with severe COVID-19 on admission, according to World Health Organization (WHO) classification, were divided into two groups: patients who needed mechanical ventilation and/or deceased (SEVERE, n = 50) and patients who used supplementary oxygen but not mechanical ventilation and survived (MILD, n = 29); a control group (CONTROL, n = 17) was also enrolled. In the peripheral blood, gene expression (mRNA) of Toll-like receptors (TLRs) 3, 4, 7, 8, and 9, retinoic-acid inducible gene I (RIGI), NOD-like receptor family pyrin domain containing 3 (NLRP3), interferon alpha (IFN-α), interferon beta (IFN-β), interferon gamma (IFN-γ), interferon lambda (IFN-λ), pro-interleukin(IL)-1β (pro-IL-1β), and IL-18 was determined on admission, between 5–9 days, and between 10–15 days. Circulating cytokines in plasma were also measured. When compared to the COVID-19 MILD group, the COVID-19 SEVERE group had lower expression of TLR3 and overexpression of TLR4.

Effectiveness of CoronaVac among healthcare workers in the setting of high SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant transmission in Manaus, Brazil: A test-negative case-control study

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, Gamma, emerged in the city of Manaus in late 2020 during a large resurgence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and has spread throughout Brazil. The effectiveness of vaccines in settings with widespread Gamma variant transmission has not been reported.

Methods

We performed a matched test-negative case-control study to estimate the effectiveness of an inactivated vaccine, CoronaVac, in healthcare workers (HCWs) in Manaus, where the Gamma variant accounted for 86% of genotyped SARS-CoV-2 samples at the peak of its epidemic. We performed an early analysis of effectiveness following administration of at least one vaccine dose and an analysis of effectiveness of the two-dose schedule. The primary outcome was symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Findings

For the early at-least-one-dose and two-dose analyses the study population was, respectively, 53,176 and 53,153 HCWs residing in Manaus and aged 18 years or older, with complete information on age, residence, and vaccination status. Among 53,153 HCWs eligible for the two-dose analysis, 47,170 (89%) received at least one dose of CoronaVac and 2,656 individuals (5%) underwent RT-PCR testing from 19 January, 2021 to 13 April, 2021. Of 3,195 RT-PCR tests, 885 (28%) were positive. 393 and 418 case-control pairs were selected for the early and two-dose analyses, respectively, matched on calendar time, age, and neighbourhood. Among those who had received both vaccine doses before the RT-PCR sample collection date, the average time from second dose to sample collection date was 14 days (IQR 7-24). In the early analysis, vaccination with at least one dose was associated with a 0.50-fold reduction (adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE), 49.6%, 95% CI 11.3 to 71.4) in the odds of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the period 14 days or more after receiving the first dose. However, we estimated low effectiveness (adjusted VE 36.8%, 95% CI -54.9 to 74.2) of the two-dose schedule against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the period 14 days or more after receiving the second dose. A finding that vaccinated individuals were much more likely to be infected than unvaccinated individuals in the period 0-13 days after first dose (aOR 2.11, 95% CI 1.36-3.27) suggests that unmeasured confounding led to downward bias in the vaccine effectiveness estimate.

Interpretation

Evidence from this test-negative study of the effectiveness of CoronaVac was mixed, and likely affected by bias in this setting. Administration of at least one vaccine dose showed effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the setting of epidemic Gamma variant transmission. However, the low estimated effectiveness of the two-dose schedule underscores the need to maintain non-pharmaceutical interventions while vaccination campaigns with CoronaVac are being implemented.

Funding

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz); Municipal Health Secretary of Manaus; Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020

Background

This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries.

Methods

Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015–2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015–2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths.

Results

Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Trends in COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Brazilian public hospitals: A longitudinal cohort of 398,063 hospital admissions from 1st March to 3rd October 2020

BACKGROUND

Almost 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 were reported in Brazil in 2020. The case fatality rate of a new infectious disease can vary by different risk factors and over time. We analysed the trends and associated factors of COVID-19 case fatality rates in Brazilian public hospital admissions during the first wave of the pandemic.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of all COVID-19-related admissions between epidemiological weeks 10-40 in the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) was delimited from available reimbursement records. Smoothing time series and survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the trends of hospital case fatality rates (CFR) and the probability of death according to factors such as sex, age, ethnicity, comorbidities, length of stay and ICU use.

RESULTS

With 398,063 admissions and 86,452 (21.7%) deaths, the overall age-standardized hospital CFR trend decreased throughout the period, varying from 31.8% (95%CI: 31.2 to 32.5%) in week 10 to 18.2% (95%CI: 17.6 to 18.8%) in week 40. This decreasing trend was observed in all sex, age, ethnic groups, length of stay and ICU admissions. Consistently, later admission (from July to September) was an independent protective factor. Patients 80+ year old had a hazard ratio of 8.18 (95% CI: 7.51 to 8.91). Ethnicity, comorbidities, and ICU need were also associated with the death risk. Although also decreasing, the CFR was always around 40-50% in people who needed an ICU admission.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall hospital CFR of COVID-19 has decreased in Brazilian public hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, during the entire period, the CFR was still very high, suggesting the need for improving COVID-19 hospital care in Brazil.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 in the State of Sergipe/Brazil and Its Relationship with Social Indicators

A pandemic is capable of generating a great impact, not only from the point of view of health, but also socioeconomically. In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that a new pandemic situation had arisen, due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, whose probable origin was zoonotic. The largest number of cases of this disease is concentrated in the United States of America (USA), India, and Brazil. The mortality rate is estimated at 3.4%, but regional differences may exist, and places with a high demographic density have become true epicentres and may be related to higher rates of transmission. In addition to the above, lower human development indexes (HDI) can be related to worse outcomes, especially in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil since they are the least developed places. The Northeast region is the second-most-affected place in the number of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. An analytical observational study of an ecological type was carried out from April to October 2020 to assess the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in the state of Sergipe and specifically to analyse the incidence of cases and deaths resulting from COVID-19 in the different health regions of the state of Sergipe, in relation to the values of the HDI and demographic density. During the study period, 84,325 cases of COVID-19 were identified, in which 2205 resulted in death. In most of the regions studied, there was a positive association between the number of cases and deaths and the greater the demographic density, but there was no increase in the risk of becoming ill, nor of dying the lower the HDI. Large and crowded cities are places of greatest vulnerability to illness, due to their greater capacity of transmitting the virus; however, further studies are needed to identify other factors that are decisive in the outcomes of this new disease.

Difference in mortality among individuals admitted to hospital with COVID-19 during the first and second waves in South Africa: a cohort study

Background

The first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa peaked in July, 2020, and a larger second wave peaked in January, 2021, in which the SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 (Beta) lineage predominated. We aimed to compare in-hospital mortality and other patient characteristics between the first and second waves.

Methods

In this prospective cohort study, we analysed data from the DATCOV national active surveillance system for COVID-19 admissions to hospital from March 5, 2020, to March 27, 2021. The system contained data from all hospitals in South Africa that have admitted a patient with COVID-19. We used incidence risk for admission to hospital and determined cutoff dates to define five wave periods: pre-wave 1, wave 1, post-wave 1, wave 2, and post-wave 2. We compared the characteristics of patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital in wave 1 and wave 2, and risk factors for in-hospital mortality accounting for wave period using random-effect multivariable logistic regression.

Findings

Peak rates of COVID-19 cases, admissions, and in-hospital deaths in the second wave exceeded rates in the first wave: COVID-19 cases, 240·4 cases per 100 000 people vs 136·0 cases per 100 000 people; admissions, 27·9 admissions per 100 000 people vs 16·1 admissions per 100 000 people; deaths, 8·3 deaths per 100 000 people vs 3·6 deaths per 100 000 people. The weekly average growth rate in hospital admissions was 20% in wave 1 and 43% in wave 2 (ratio of growth rate in wave 2 compared with wave 1 was 1·19, 95% CI 1·18–1·20). Compared with the first wave, individuals admitted to hospital in the second wave were more likely to be age 40–64 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1·22, 95% CI 1·14–1·31), and older than 65 years (aOR 1·38, 1·25–1·52), compared with younger than 40 years; of Mixed race (aOR 1·21, 1·06–1·38) compared with White race; and admitted in the public sector (aOR 1·65, 1·41–1·92); and less likely to be Black (aOR 0·53, 0·47–0·60) and Indian (aOR 0·77, 0·66–0·91), compared with White; and have a comorbid condition (aOR 0·60, 0·55–0·67). For multivariable analysis, after adjusting for weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions, there was a 31% increased risk of in-hospital mortality in the second wave (aOR 1·31, 95% CI 1·28–1·35). In-hospital case-fatality risk increased from 17·7% in weeks of low admission (<3500 admissions) to 26·9% in weeks of very high admission (>8000 admissions; aOR 1·24, 1·17–1·32).

Interpretation

In South Africa, the second wave was associated with higher incidence of COVID-19, more rapid increase in admissions to hospital, and increased in-hospital mortality. Although some of the increased mortality can be explained by admissions in the second wave being more likely in older individuals, in the public sector, and by the increased health system pressure, a residual increase in mortality of patients admitted to hospital could be related to the new Beta lineage.

Funding

DATCOV as a national surveillance system is funded by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the South African National Government.

Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

We estimated the seroprevalence of anti‐severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) antibodies in residents of African countries and explored its associated factors. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, PsycINFO, AMED, CINAHL, DOAJ and Google Scholar databases for peer reviewed articles and pre‐prints that reported anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 antibody seroprevalence of general or specific human populations resident in Africa. The eligible studies were evaluated using Joana Briggs Institute prevalence critical appraisal tool. Twenty‐three studies involving 27,735 individuals were included in our paper. The pooled seroprevalence of anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 antibodies in Africa was 22% (95%CI: 14–31) with very high heterogeneity (I² = 100%, p < 0.001). Seroprevalence was highest in studies conducted in Central Africa compared to Southern Africa, West Africa, North Africa and East Africa respectively. The number of days between the first reported coronavirus disease 2019 case in each country and when a seroprevalence study was conducted was a significant moderator of seroprevalence. Seropositivity was numerically influenced by gender and age of the participants with males and those aged below 50 years being most affected with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. The highest pooled seroprevalence in Africa reported in this review should be interpreted cautiously due to high heterogeneity between studies. Continued seroprevalence surveillance is warranted to establish Africa's transition towards herd immunity.

The emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variant P.1 in Amazonas (Brazil) was temporally associated with a change in the age and sex profile of COVID-19 mortality: A population based ecological study

BACKGROUND

Since the end of 2020, there has been a great deal of international concern about the variants of SARS-COV-2 B.1.1.7, identified in the United Kingdom; B.1.351 discovered in South Africa and P.1, originating from the Brazilian state of Amazonas. The three variants were associated with an increase in transmissibility and worsening of the epidemiological situation in the places where they expanded. The lineage B.1.1.7 was associated with the increase in case fatality rate in the United Kingdom. There are still no studies on the case fatality rate of the other two variants. The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality profile before and after the emergence of the P.1 strain in the Amazonas state.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, SIVEP-Gripe (Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe), comparing two distinct epidemiological periods: during the peak of the first wave, between April and May 2020, and in January 2021 (the second wave), the month in which the new variant came to predominate. We calculated mortality rates, overall case fatality rate and case fatality rate among hospitalized patients; all rates were calculated by age and gender and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were determined.

FINDINGS

We observed that in the second wave there were a higher incidence and an increase in the proportion of cases of COVID-19 in the younger age groups. There was also an increase in the proportion of women among Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) cases from 40% (2,709) in the first wave to 47% (2,898) in the second wave and in the proportion of deaths due to COVID-19 between the two periods varying from 34% (1,051) to 47% (1,724), respectively. In addition, the proportion of deaths among people between 20 and 59 years old has increased in both sexes. The case fatality rate among those hospitalized in the population between 20 and 39 years old during the second wave was 2.7 times the rate observed in the first wave (female rate ratio = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.9-3.9], p <0.0001; male rate ratio = 2.70, 95%CI:2.0-3.7), and in the general population the rate ratios were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.1-1.2) in females and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.7-0.8) in males].

INTERPRETATION

Based on this prompt analysis of the epidemiological scenario in the Amazonas state, the observed changes in the pattern of mortality due to COVID-19 between age groups and gender simultaneously with the emergence of the P.1 strain suggest changes in the pathogenicity and virulence profile of this new variant. Further studies are needed to better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 variants profile and their impact for the health population.

FUNDING

There was no funding for this study.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19 in Argentina (SATICOVID): a prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although COVID-19 has greatly affected many low-income and middle-income countries, detailed information about patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) is still scarce. Our aim was to examine ventilation characteristics and outcomes in invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19 in Argentina, an upper middle-income country.

METHODS

In this prospective, multicentre cohort study (SATICOVID), we enrolled patients aged 18 years or older with RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 who were on invasive mechanical ventilation and admitted to one of 63 ICUs in Argentina. Patient demographics and clinical, laboratory, and general management variables were collected on day 1 (ICU admission); physiological respiratory and ventilation variables were collected on days 1, 3, and 7. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. All patients were followed until death in hospital or hospital discharge, whichever occurred first. Secondary outcomes were ICU mortality, identification of independent predictors of mortality, duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, and patterns of change in physiological respiratory and mechanical ventilation variables. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04611269, and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between March 20, 2020, and Oct 31, 2020, we enrolled 1909 invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19, with a median age of 62 years [IQR 52-70]. 1294 (67·8%) were men, hypertension and obesity were the main comorbidities, and 939 (49·2%) patients required vasopressors. Lung-protective ventilation was widely used and median duration of ventilation was 13 days (IQR 7-22). Median tidal volume was 6·1 mL/kg predicted bodyweight (IQR 6·0-7·0) on day 1, and the value increased significantly up to day 7; positive end-expiratory pressure was 10 cm H₂O (8-12) on day 1, with a slight but significant decrease to day 7. Ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO₂) to fractional inspired oxygen (FiO₂) was 160 (IQR 111-218), respiratory system compliance 36 mL/cm H₂O (29-44), driving pressure 12 cm H₂O (10-14), and FiO₂ 0·60 (0·45-0·80) on day 1. Acute respiratory distress syndrome developed in 1672 (87·6%) of patients; 1176 (61·6%) received prone positioning. In-hospital mortality was 57·7% (1101/1909 patients) and ICU mortality was 57·0% (1088/1909 patients); 462 (43·8%) patients died of refractory hypoxaemia, frequently overlapping with septic shock (n=174). Cox regression identified age (hazard ratio 1·02 [95% CI 1·01-1·03]), Charlson score (1·16 [1·11-1·23]), endotracheal intubation outside of the ICU (ie, before ICU admission; 1·37 [1·10-1·71]), vasopressor use on day 1 (1·29 [1·07-1·55]), D-dimer concentration (1·02 [1·01-1·03]), PaO₂/FiO₂ on day 1 (0·998 [0·997-0·999]), arterial pH on day 1 (1·01 [1·00-1·01]), driving pressure on day 1 (1·05 [1·03-1·08]), acute kidney injury (1·66 [1·36-2·03]), and month of admission (1·10 [1·03-1·18]) as independent predictors of mortality.

INTERPRETATION

In patients with COVID-19 who required invasive mechanical ventilation, lung-protective ventilation was widely used but mortality was high. Predictors of mortality in our study broadly agreed with those identified in studies of invasively ventilated patients in high-income countries. The sustained burden of COVID-19 on scarce health-care personnel might have contributed to high mortality over the course of our study in Argentina. These data might help to identify points for improvement in the management of patients in middle-income countries and elsewhere.

FUNDING

None.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the Summary see Supplementary Materials section.

Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC): a protocol for a multidisciplinary prospective observational evaluation of a cohort of patients surviving hospitalisation in Sao Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 may lead to persistent and potentially incapacitating clinical manifestations (post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC)). Using easy-to-apply questionnaires and scales (often by telephone interviewing), several studies evaluated samples of COVID-19 inpatients from 4 weeks to several months after discharge. However, studies conducting systematic multidisciplinary assessments of PASC manifestations are scarce, with thorough in-person objective evaluations restricted to modestly sized subsamples presenting greatest disease severity.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

We will conduct a prospective observational study of surviving individuals (above 18 years of age) from a cohort of over 3000 subjects with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were treated as inpatients at the largest academic health centre in Sao Paulo, Brazil (Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo). All eligible subjects will be consecutively invited to undergo a 1-2-day series of multidisciplinary assessments at 2 time-points, respectively, at 6-9 months and 12-15 months after discharge. Assessment schedules will include detailed multidomain questionnaires applied by medical research staff, self-report scales, objective evaluations of cardiopulmonary functioning, physical functionality and olfactory status, standardised neurological, psychiatric and cognitive examinations, as well as diagnostic laboratory, muscle ultrasound and chest imaging exams. Remaining material from blood tests will be incorporated by a local biobank for use in future investigations on inflammatory markers, genomics, transcriptomics, peptidomics and metabolomics.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All components of this programme have been approved by local research ethics committees. We aim to provide insights into the frequency and severity of chronic/post-COVID multiorgan symptoms, as well as their interrelationships and associations with acute disease features, sociodemographic variables and environmental exposures. Findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and at scientific meetings. Additionally, we aim to provide a data repository to allow future pathophysiological investigations relating clinical PASC features to biomarker data extracted from blood samples.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

RBR-8z7v5wc; Pre-results.

Mortality in pregnancy and the postpartum period in women with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome related to COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020

OBJECTIVE

To estimate fatality rates due to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) related to COVID-19 in Brazilian women, comparing pregnant and postpartum women with nonpregnant women.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of 12 566 pregnant and postpartum women (obstetric group) and 90 025 nonpregnant women (nonobstetric group) aged 15-49 years reported with severe ARDS in 2020. The Brazilian ARDS Surveillance System was used to compare the outcome (death or cure) between the groups, considering age, race, or comorbidities.

RESULTS

The mortality rate related to ARDS/COVID-19 in the obstetric group was 7.8% (377/4853) compared with 13.9% (5946/42 915) in the nonobstetric group. Comorbidity was associated with increased fatality cases for both groups, but higher in the nonobstetric group (22.8% vs 13.3%). In the obstetric group, deaths related to COVID-19 were concentrated in the third trimester or postpartum period. If comorbidity was present, deaths by COVID-19 were 4.4 times higher than ARDS due to other etiologies, and twice higher in women who self-reported as black (13.7%) than white women (6.7%). Considering ADRS etiology, deaths by COVID-19 were 3.4-6.7 times higher than any other etiology.

CONCLUSION

ARDS related to COVID-19 in obstetric patients was an important factor for worse clinical outcomes, with 3-6 times higher death rates than other ARDS etiologies. Pregnant and postpartum women with severe ARDS related to COVID-19 had a lower fatality rate than nonpregnant women, even with associated comorbidity.

The role of emergency department triage early warning score (TREWS) and modified early warning score (MEWS) to predict in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients

Background

It is necessary to identify critical patients requiring hospitalization early due to the rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.

Aim

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of scoring systems such as emergency department triage early warning score (TREWS) and modified early warning score (MEWS) in predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, PCR positive patients evaluated for COVID-19 and decided to be hospitalized were evaluated. During the first evaluation, MEWS and TREWS scores of the patients were calculated. Intensive care needs as well as 24-h and 28-day mortality rates were evaluated.

Results

A total of 339 patients were included in the study. While 30 (8.8%) patients were hospitalized in the intensive care unit, 4 (1.2%) died in the emergency. The number of patients who died within 28 days was found to be 57 (16.8%). In 24-h mortality, the median MEWS value was found to be 7 (IQR 25–75) while the TREWS value was 11.5 (IQR 25–75). In the ROC analysis made for the diagnostic value of 28-day mortality of MEWS and TREWS scores, the area under the curve (AUC) for the MEWS score was found to be 0.833 (95% CI 0.777–0.888, p < 0.001) while it was identified as 0.823 (95% CI 0.764–0.882, p < 0.001) for the TREWS.

Conclusion

MEWS and TREWS calculated at emergency services are effective in predicting 28-day mortality in patients requiring hospitalization due to COVID-19.

Case Study of Two Post Vaccination SARS-CoV-2 Infections with P1 Variants in CoronaVac Vaccinees in Brazil

The rapid development of efficacious and safe vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been instrumental in mitigating the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Moreover, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raised concerns on the efficacy of these vaccines. Herein, we report two cases of breakthrough infections with the P1 variant in patients vaccinated with CoronaVac, which is one of the two vaccines authorized for emergency use in the Brazilian immunization program. Our observations suggest that the vaccine reduced the severity of the disease and highlight the potential risk of illness following vaccination and subsequent infection with the P1 variant as well as for continued efforts to prevent and diagnose infection in vaccinated persons.

Combined Use of Tocilizumab and Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in the Treatment of Severe Covid-19: Case Report

The coronavirus pandemic is one of the most significant public health events in recent history. Currently, no specific treatment is available. Some drugs and cell-based therapy have been tested as alternatives to decrease the disease's symptoms, length of hospital stay, and mortality. We reported the case of a patient with a severe manifestation of COVID-19 in critical condition who did not respond to the standard procedures used, including six liters of O₂ supplementation under a nasal catheter and treatment with dexamethasone and enoxaparin in prophylactic dose. The patient was treated with tocilizumab and an advanced therapy product based on umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (UC-MSC). The combination of tocilizumab and UC-MSC proved to be safe, with no adverse effects, and the results of this case report prove to be a promising alternative in the treatment of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome due to SARS-CoV-2.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for death among hospitalised children and adolescents with COVID-19 in Brazil: an analysis of a nationwide database

Background

COVID-19 is usually less severe and has lower case fatality in children than in adults. We aimed to characterise the clinical features of children and adolescents hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and to evaluate the risk factors for COVID-19-related death in this population.

Methods

We did an analysis of all patients younger than 20 years who had quantitative RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 and were registered in the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe, a nationwide surveillance database of patients admitted to hospital with severe acute respiratory disease in Brazil), between Feb 16, 2020, and Jan 9, 2021. The primary outcome was time to recovery (discharge) or in-hospital death, evaluated by competing risks analysis using the cumulative incidence function.

Findings

Of the 82 055 patients younger than 20 years reported to SIVEP-Gripe during the study period, 11 613 (14·2%) had available data showing laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and were included in the sample. Among these patients, 886 (7·6%) died in hospital (at a median 6 days [IQR 3–15] after hospital admission), 10 041 (86·5%) patients were discharged from the hospital, 369 (3·2%) were in hospital at the time of analysis, and 317 (2·7%) were missing information on outcome. The estimated probability of death was 4·8% during the first 10 days after hospital admission, 6·7% during the first 20 days, and 8·1% at the end of follow-up. Probability of discharge was 54·1% during the first 10 days, 78·4% during the first 20 days, and 92·0% at the end of follow-up. Our competing risks multivariate survival analysis showed that risk of death was increased in infants younger than 2 years (hazard ratio 2·36 [95% CI 1·94–2·88]) or adolescents aged 12–19 years (2·23 [1·84–2·71]) relative to children aged 2–11 years; those of Indigenous ethnicity (3·36 [2·15–5·24]) relative to those of White ethnicity; those living in the Northeast region (2·06 [1·68–2·52]) or North region (1·55 [1·22–1·98]) relative to those in the Southeast region; and those with one (2·96 [2·52–3·47]), two (4·96 [3·80–6·48]), or three or more (7·28 [4·56–11·6]) pre-existing medical conditions relative to those with none.

Interpretation

Death from COVID-19 was associated with age, Indigenous ethnicity, poor geopolitical region, and pre-existing medical conditions. Disparities in health care, poverty, and comorbidities can contribute to magnifying the burden of COVID-19 in more vulnerable and socioeconomically disadvantaged children and adolescents in Brazil.

Funding

National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, Research Support Foundation of Minas Gerais.

Protective ventilation and outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19: a cohort study

Background

Approximately 5% of COVID-19 patients develop respiratory failure and need ventilatory support, yet little is known about the impact of mechanical ventilation strategy in COVID-19. Our objective was to describe baseline characteristics, ventilatory parameters, and outcomes of critically ill patients in the largest referral center for COVID-19 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, during the first surge of the pandemic.

Methods

This cohort included COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care units (ICUs) of an academic hospital with 94 ICU beds, a number expanded to 300 during the pandemic as part of a state preparedness plan. Data included demographics, advanced life support therapies, and ventilator parameters. The main outcome was 28-day survival. We used a multivariate Cox model to test the association between protective ventilation and survival, adjusting for PF ratio, pH, compliance, and PEEP.

Results

We included 1503 patients from March 30 to June 30, 2020. The mean age was 60 ± 15 years, and 59% were male. During 28-day follow-up, 1180 (79%) patients needed invasive ventilation and 666 (44%) died. For the 984 patients who were receiving mechanical ventilation in the first 24 h of ICU stay, mean tidal volume was 6.5 ± 1.3 mL/kg of ideal body weight, plateau pressure was 24 ± 5 cmH₂O, respiratory system compliance was 31.9 (24.4–40.9) mL/cmH₂O, and 82% of patients were ventilated with protective ventilation. Noninvasive ventilation was used in 21% of patients, and prone, in 36%. Compliance was associated with survival and did not show a bimodal pattern that would support the presence of two phenotypes. In the multivariable model, protective ventilation (aHR 0.73 [95%CI 0.57–0.94]), adjusted for PF ratio, compliance, PEEP, and arterial pH, was independently associated with survival.

Conclusions

During the peak of the epidemic in Sao Paulo, critically ill patients with COVID-19 often required mechanical ventilation and mortality was high. Our findings revealed an association between mechanical ventilation strategy and mortality, highlighting the importance of protective ventilation for patients with COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-021-00882-w.

Characteristics, outcomes and global trends of respiratory support in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

To date, a shared international consensus on treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) with invasive or non-invasive respiratory support is lacking. Patients' management and outcomes, especially in severe and critical cases, can vary depending on regional standard operating procedures and local guidance.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Rapid review methodology was applied to include all the studies published on PubMed and Embase between December 15th 2019 and February 28th 2021, reporting in-hospital and respiratory support-related mortality in adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 that underwent either continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), non-invasive ventilation (NIV) or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Only English language studies with ≥100 patients and reporting data on respiratory failure were included. Data on comorbidities, ventilatory parameters and hospital-related complications were registered.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Fifty-two studies (287359 patients - 57.5% males, mean age 64 years (range 24-98)) from 17 different countries were included in the final analysis. 33.3% of patients were hospitalized in intensive care units. 44.2% had hypertension, 26.1% had diabetes, and 7.1% a chronic respiratory disease. 55% of patients underwent respiratory support (36% IMV, 62% NIV and 2% CPAP). Without considering a study with the highest number of patients treated with NIV (n=96729), prevalence of NIV and CPAP use was 12.5% and 13.5% respectively. Globally, invasive and non-invasive approaches were heterogeneously applied. In-hospital mortality was 33.7%, and IMV-related mortality was 72.6% (range: 4.3%-99%). Specific mortality in patients treated with CPAP or NIV was available for 53% of studies, and was 29% (range: 7.2%-100%). The median length of hospital stay was 13 days (range: 6-63). The most frequent hospital-related complication was acute kidney injury being reported in up to 55.7% of enrolled patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Global employment of respiratory supports and related outcomes are very heterogeneous. The most frequent respiratory support in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia is IMV, while NIV and CPAP are less frequently and equally applied, the latter especially in Europe, while data on NIV/CPAP-related mortality is often under-reported. Integrated and comprehensive reporting is desirable and needed to construct evidence-based recommendations.

Patient Characteristics and Clinical Course of COVID-19 Patients Treated at a German Tertiary Center during the First and Second Waves in the Year 2020

In this study, we directly compared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients hospitalized during the first (27 February-28 July 2020) and second (29 July-31 December 2020) wave of the pandemic at a large tertiary center in northern Germany. Patients who presented during the first (n = 174) and second (n = 331) wave did not differ in age (median [IQR], 59 years [46, 71] vs. 58 years [42, 73]; p = 0.82) or age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (median [IQR], 2 [1, 4] vs. 2 [0, 4]; p = 0.50). During the second wave, a higher proportion of patients were treated as outpatients (11% [n = 20] vs. 20% [n = 67]), fewer patients were admitted to the intensive care unit (43% [n = 75] vs. 29% [n = 96]), and duration of hospitalization was significantly shorter (median days [IQR], 14 [8, 34] vs. 11 [5, 19]; p < 0.001). However, in-hospital mortality was high throughout the pandemic and did not differ between the two periods (16% [n = 27] vs. 16% [n = 54]; p = 0.89). While novel treatment strategies and increased knowledge about the clinical management of COVID-19 may have resulted in a less severe disease course in some patients, in-hospital mortality remained unaltered at a high level. These findings highlight the unabated need for efforts to hamper severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, to increase vaccination coverage, and to develop novel treatment strategies to prevent mortality and decrease morbidity.

Association of physical activity levels and the prevalence of COVID-19-associated hospitalization

Objectives

We compared physical activity levels before the outbreak and quarantine measures with COVID-19-associated hospitalization prevalence in surviving patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we investigated the association of physical activity levels with symptoms of the disease, length of hospital stay, and mechanical ventilation.

Design

Observational, cross-sectional.

Methods

Between June 2020 and August 2020, we invited Brazilian survivors and fully recovered patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 to respond to an online questionnaire. We shared the electronic link to the questionnaire on the internet. We collected data about clinical outcomes (symptoms, medications, hospitalization, and length of hospital stay) and cofactors, such as age, sex, ethnicity, preexisting diseases, socioeconomic and educational, and physical activity levels using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ short version).

Results

Out of 938 patients, 91 (9.7%) were hospitalized due to COVID-19. In a univariate analysis, sex, age, and BMI were all associated with hospitalizations due to COVID-19. Men had a higher prevalence of hospitalization (66.6%, p = 0.013). Patients older than 65 years, obese, and with preexisting disease had a higher prevalence of COVID-19-related hospitalizations. In a multivariate regression model, performance of at least 150 min/wk (moderate) and/or 75 min/wk (vigorous) physical activity was associated with a lower prevalence of hospitalizations after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, and preexisting diseases (PR = 0.657; p = 0.046).

Conclusions

Sufficient physical activity levels were associated with a lower prevalence of COVID-19-related hospitalizations. Performing at least 150 min a week of moderate-intensity, or 75 min a week of vigorous-intensity physical activity was associated with 34.3% reduction in prevalence.

Fungal and bacterial coinfections increase mortality of severely ill COVID-19 patients

Background

SARS-CoV-2 predisposes patients to secondary infections; however, a better understanding of the impact of coinfections on the outcome of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is still necessary.

Aim

To analyse death risk due to coinfections in COVID-19 patients.

Methods

The odds of death of 212 severely ill COVID-19 patients were evaluated, with detailed focus on the risks for each pathogen, site of infection, comorbidities and length of hospitalization.

Findings

The mortality rate was 50.47%. Fungal and/or bacterial isolation occurred in 89 patients, of whom 83.14% died. Coinfected patients stayed hospitalized longer and had an increased odds of dying (odds ratio (OR): 13.45; R² = 0.31). The risk of death was increased by bacterial (OR: 11.28) and fungal (OR: 5.97) coinfections, with increased levels of creatinine, leucocytes, urea and C-reactive protein. Coinfections increased the risk of death if patients suffered from cardiovascular disease (OR: 11.53), diabetes (OR: 6.00) or obesity (OR: 5.60) in comparison with patients with these comorbidities but without pathogen isolation. The increased risk of death was detected for coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (OR: 25.39), Candida non-albicans (OR: 11.12), S. aureus (OR: 10.72), Acinetobacter spp. (OR: 6.88), Pseudomonas spp. (OR: 4.77), and C. albicans (OR: 3.97). The high-risk sites of infection were blood, tracheal aspirate, and urine. Patients with coinfection undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation were 3.8 times more likely to die than those without positive cultures.

Conclusion

Severe COVID-19 patients with secondary coinfections required longer hospitalization and had higher risk of death. The early diagnosis of coinfections is essential to identify high-risk patients and to determine the right interventions to reduce mortality.

Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil

Brazil has been severely hit by COVID-19, with rapid spatial spread of both cases and deaths. We used daily data on reported cases and deaths to understand, measure, and compare the spatiotemporal pattern of the spread across municipalities. Indicators of clustering, trajectories, speed, and intensity of the movement of COVID-19 to interior areas, combined with indices of policy measures, show that although no single narrative explains the diversity in the spread, an overall failure of implementing prompt, coordinated, and equitable responses in a context of stark local inequalities fueled disease spread. This resulted in high and unequal infection and mortality burdens. With a current surge in cases and deaths and several variants of concern in circulation, failure to mitigate the spread could further aggravate the burden.

Evolving changes in mortality of 13,301 critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 over 8 months

PURPOSE

Clinical characteristics and management of COVID-19 patients have evolved during the pandemic, potentially changing their outcomes. We analyzed the associations of changes in mortality rates with clinical profiles and respiratory support strategies in COVID-19 critically ill patients.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort of RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted at 126 Brazilian intensive care units between February 27^th and October 28^th, 2020. Assessing temporal changes in deaths, we identified distinct time periods. We evaluated the association of characteristics and respiratory support strategies with 60-day in-hospital mortality using random-effects multivariable Cox regression with inverse probability weighting.

RESULTS

Among the 13,301 confirmed-COVID-19 patients, 60-day in-hospital mortality was 13%. Across four time periods identified, younger patients were progressively more common, non-invasive respiratory support was increasingly used, and the 60-day in-hospital mortality decreased in the last two periods. 4188 patients received advanced respiratory support (non-invasive or invasive), from which 42% underwent only invasive mechanical ventilation, 37% only non-invasive respiratory support and 21% failed non-invasive support and were intubated. After adjusting for organ dysfunction scores and premorbid conditions, we found that younger age, absence of frailty and the use of non-invasive respiratory support (NIRS) as first support strategy were independently associated with improved survival (hazard ratio for NIRS first [95% confidence interval], 0.59 [0.54-0.65], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Age and mortality rates have declined over the first 8 months of the pandemic. The use of NIRS as the first respiratory support measure was associated with survival, but causal inference is limited by the observational nature of our data.

Environmental Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Virus RNA in Health Facilities in Brazil and a Systematic Review on Contamination Sources

SARS-CoV-2 environmental monitoring can track the rate of viral contamination and can be used to establish preventive measures. This study aimed to detect by RT-PCR the presence of SARS-CoV-2 from inert surface samples in public health settings with a literature review about surface contamination and its burden on spread virus. Samples were collected from health settings in Curitiba, Brazil, between July and December 2020. A literature review was conducted using PRISMA. A total of 711 environmental surface samples were collected from outpatient areas, dental units, doctors' offices, COVID-19 evaluation areas, and hospital units, of which 35 (4.9%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The frequency of environmental contamination was higher in primary care units than in hospital settings. The virus was detected on doctors' personal items. Remarkably, the previously disinfected dental chair samples tested positive. These findings agree with those of other studies in which SARS-CoV-2 was found on inanimate surfaces. Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on surfaces in public health settings, including those not meant to treat COVID-19, indicates widespread environmental contamination. Therefore, the intensification of disinfection measures for external hospital areas may be important for controlling community COVID-19 dissemination.